|Home||Switchboard||Unix Administration||Red Hat||TCP/IP Networks||Neoliberalism||Toxic Managers|
May the source be with you, but remember the KISS principle ;-)
Skepticism and critical thinking is not panacea, but can help to understand the world better
Note: Despite doom and gloom stock market went from 1260 to 1460 in one year. This new stock and bonds bubble (if it is bubble) was created and supported by Fed.
As Mark Twain quipped:
"October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February."
Charles M. SavageRequired Reading for RIO+20?keith renick
"Peak Oil," what's that? It's nearly invisible at RIO+20. The same seems to be true for the latest meeting of the IPCC in Geneva (6th to 9th of June, 2012) as they prepare AR5 for 2014. Was M. King Hubbert wrong in a very brief 1976 YouTube video when he said:
"If we go back 5,000 years and ahead 5,000 years, we see this Washington Monument like spike, the episode of oil, gas and coal. It is the most disturbing thing in human history. It is responsible for our technological society and in terms of human history it is a very brief period." Source: [...]
Prof. Kjell Aleklett of the Uppsala Global Energy Systems Group and President of the Association for Study of Peak Oil (ASOP) has just explained in wonderful detail the important and meaning of Hubbert's quotation. It's real and it's here! Yet our collective denial is profound and truly scary.
In this very readable and well illustrated book, "Peeking at Peak Oil" we learn that both the industrial and governmental agencies are not giving us a clear idea of where we really are, that Peak Oil us upon us and Peak Coal and Peak Gas (not to mention Peak Water and Peak Phosphorus) are not far behind.
Even if these peak in the next 50 or 150, that's literally no time at all when we realize humans could live on this planet for the next 500 to 800 million years, or perhaps a little longer, before the increasing heat of the sun does away with our water.
Therefore, if we truly care about our great grandchildren and theirs, we need to begin immediately to rebuild an extremely low-carbon our global economy which substitutes "consumptionism" with a vibrant cultural life that's more than just "entertainment." For all the wonderful insights in Prof. Aleklett's book, I'd wished he'd have had a clearer section on CO2 levels and had given a little more attention to the rapidly developing fracking efforts to reach shale gas. These aside, were Aleklett's book to be required reading for RIO, its chances of success would be greatly improved!
Very Important Work September 1, 2012This book, Peeking at Peak Oil is a very important work. This work is based on science. It's sound in it's findings. Again, it's science that's based on very sound research methods. It's not pie-in-the sky or doomsday is here. It's sound scientific research that can't be overlooked. Looking at the facts, readers can draw their own conclusions as to how peak oil will play out. Peak Oil is real and it has arrived. Peak Oil is most often misunderstood by economists and the general public.
Modern economics is flawed because it never had a reason it include net energy in it's economic models of growth. Economist are obsessed with total labor productivity. The world is consuming more and more energy and getting less and less growth, less bang for their buck. Along with "Peak Oil" we will have water problems as many places that produce oil will require huge amounts of water for water injection to get the remaining oil out of the ground.
What's never addressed is the growing car and light truck population of the earth. When my granddaddy Crump was born in 1889 there were maybe 3 cars in the USA. When I was born there was less than 70 million cars in the USA. Today, there are over 250,000,000 cars and light trucks in the USA and growing. Today the global car and light truck population more than 800 million and racing to a billion worldwide. At some point, it doesn't matter how much oil is in the ground or how many miles per gallon your car gets. What matters will be the total number of cars and light trucks in the world, all of them, more than a billion, wanting their gas tanks topped off.
But the average person doesn't want to hear that there are limits. Tap water and gasoline will always be there in abundance and will always be affordable. Many believe everyone who can afford a car should have one and the earth can support one billion cars, one and a half billion cars, 2 billion cars or more. The total number of cars and light trucks in the world has never crossed their minds. How can it be expected that China and India will stop making cars? They won't and the demand for oil will overtake production forever.
At some point, the question might not be how much oil is left in the world but rather how are we going to use the oil that is left? Only about 2 thirds of a barrel of oil is used to make gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. This is the term "peak oil" refers to most often is that it's a liquid fuel transportation problem. This statement is true. However, I am very concerned about the remaining one third that's used in manufacturing thousands of products that we use everyday. Now we call everything oil. Heavy sour, tar and NGL.
I was very honored several years ago when Dr. Colin Campbell emailed me some of his field-by-field estimates for Saudi Arabia. I believe the author of this book and Dr. Colin Campbell are the 2 most informed experts on the subject of "peak oil." The quality of their research is unquestionable.
While I do not share the authors belief that we can feed a future world of 9 billion people, the authors knowledge and effort that went into "Peeking at Peak OIl," is truly remarkable. Keith Renick, Saudi Aramco Oil Retired
Amazon.comRichard Kozul-Wright, an economist at the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, and Paul Rayment, an economist at the UN's Economic Commission for Europe, have written a useful book opposing what they call the `neo-liberal idolisation of market forces'.
Chapter 1 defines market fundamentalism; chapter 2 looks at globalisation in historical perspective, chapter 3 at trade and financial flows, and chapter 4 at corporations. Chapter 5 revisits globalisation, chapter 6 studies national development strategies, chapter 7 criticises market fundamentalism and chapter 8 examines the conditions for a sustainable global order.
The 1980s liberalisers promised that liberalising capital, finance and trade would bring more growth, investment, industry, equality and stability. But instead it brought less of all these.
95 out of the 124 developing countries grew faster in the period 1960-78 than in 1978-98. Yet the capitalist states of the developed world forced the developing countries to pay out more than $700 billion net between 1997 and 2002.
This exploitation and bullying continues today. As the authors note, the EU's trade agreements with developing countries often contain even more stringent demands than those made by the WTO [World Trade Organisation]'. And again, just as in the 1920s, the capitalist states' imposition of welfare cuts, labour market flexibility and monetarism have led to a crash.
The Labour Party has embraced market fundamentalism, and represents only the City of London, whose interests are opposed to the interests of the majority here in Britain and to the interests of the developing countries.
To defeat the slump, every country, Britain included, needs the pro-industry policies that enabled the developed nations to develop their economies originally. Every country needs to produce goods to meet domestic demand, not a `lop-sided reliance on external demand as the basis of sustained growth'.
Especially, every country needs to control capital flows. This is necessary to development and also to democracy As the authors write, "In a democracy, these restraints [on property rights] reflect the legitimate preferences of the population, and for an international institution or a developed country to insist that they be altered to reflect another set of preferences is a gross interference in the democratic process."
ETRADE FINANCIALCash is king over stocks, bonds and REITs
By John Coumarianos
Oct 5, 2012 06:01:40 (ET)
NORTHVALE, N.J. (MarketWatch) -- Investors: It's time to raise some cash.
If the current quarter brings more gains, you'll miss out, but that's better than being exposed to expensive asset classes.
Of course, you're losing money to inflation sitting in cash, which pays nothing, but you're reserving the opportunity to buy stocks, bonds, REITs and other investments at potentially cheaper prices later this year. To paraphrase value investor Howard Marks, we can't predict what will happen -- certainly not in one quarter -- but we can prepare.
Let's go through some asset class valuations and expected returns starting with bonds to see why raising cash is a good idea over the next few months.
First, the 10-year Treasury is yielding around 1.67%. Investors won't generate a return over inflation with a yield of less than 2%; you will erode your purchasing power sitting in Treasurys.
How about investment grade (above BBB-rated) corporate bonds? The iShares iBoxx $ InvesTop Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund has a yield of under 3% and an average weighted maturity of 12 years. So higher-quality corporate bonds may help investors eke out victory over inflation at its current rate, but a surge of inflation will crush you.
What about riskier corporate bonds? "High yield" or "junk" bonds are yielding less than 6%, if one invests in them through the low-cost iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Fund . We're getting closer to 8%, a decent margin over expected inflation, but we're already contemplating investing a significant slug of money in junk bonds. That can't be a prudent move after the run they've had.
Now let's look at real estate investment trusts. The Vanguard REIT Index Fund is sporting a 12-month yield of around 3.4%. It's possible, but unlikely, that with rental and dividend growth, this asset class can maintain purchasing power.
The problem is that REITs are trading at 20x cash flow or "funds from operations," a historically high number. A starting dividend yield of 3% in this asset class has generally not been the ticket to future 10-year double-digit or even high-single-digit returns. And if Treasury yields should rise, and investors can capture the same 3% yield on safer assets, look for REITs to plummet. Finally, with median income stagnant, it's questionable how much landlords can raise rents.
How about stocks? The Shiller P/E, which is the current price of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index divided by the past 10 years' earnings of the constituents of the index, is at around 23 -- almost 50% above the long-term average of 16.
This metric has a good record of predicting future 7-10-year returns, and with the metric so high, expected returns are low. Some people say Robert Shiller's data before 1950 is inaccurate, and that the average after 1950, when more accurate data is available, is 18. Even accounting for this, stocks are overpriced.
And with a dividend yield of around 2% and profit margins at record highs, savvy investors such as GMO's Jeremy Grantham, who think margins will revert to their longer-term mean, view domestic stocks as poised to deliver almost no return above inflation over the next seven years.
In fact, the stock markets poised to deliver returns close to 5%-6% over inflation or somewhere around 8% nominally are overseas markets, including emerging markets, according to Grantham.
No guarantees here, of course. As good as Grantham has been regarding asset class returns, his estimates are based on past averages. And we're again talking about little diversification to other asset classes.
Finally, we derive some confidence in thinking that cash is the "least worst" option by looking at managers we admire including Grantham. Steve Romick's FPA Crescent Fund is holding 32% cash and Jeffrey Gundlach's DoubleLine Total Return Fund is holding nearly 20% cash, according the most recent portfolios published by investment researcher Morningstar Inc.
Romick was a finalist for the Morningstar Manager of the Decade Award in 2010, as was Gundlach. It appears the smart money is getting defensive.
October 13, 2012 | FT.com
The communiqué also called on the United States to resolve the Congressional dispute over the fiscal cliff and urged Japan to make further progress towards fiscal consolidation in the medium term. The communiqué signaled that emerging markets and developing economies must step up their policy response if global growth deteriorated.
The tone of cautious optimism in the communiqué jars with the conclusions of the fund's World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report.
The WEO downgraded forecasts for global growth and the GFSR warned of a dramatic contraction in European banks' balance sheets, especially those of lenders in peripheral Europe.
Oct 08, 2012 | CNBC
... "A key issue is whether the global economy is just hitting another bout of turbulence in what was always expected to be a slow and bumpy recovery or whether the slowdown has a more lasting component," the IMF wrote in its latest World Economic Outlook.
...The IMF now expects the world economy to grow 3.3 percent this year, down from the 3.5 percent growth it predicted in July. It projects growth of just 3.6 percent in 2013, down from its prior estimate of 3.9 percent.
At 2.2 percent growth, the U.S. is expected to be among the fastest growing developed markets in 2012. The euro zone is forecast to contract 0.4 percent. Emerging markets are projected to grow at 5.3 percent, but the IMF did significantly lower forecasts for both Brazil and India. Brazil is now expected to grow by just 1.5 percent in 2012.
These forecasts assume that some of the policy uncertainty in the U.S. and Europe is reduced. The IMF expects European policymakers to take additional action to save the euro zone and the euro, while the U.S. policymakers will manage to avoid the "fiscal cliff" while making progress toward restoring fiscal sustainability. If either two assumptions fail to hold, "global activity could deteriorate very sharply," the report warned.
PIMCO chief Mr Gross said that the United States must cut spending or raise taxes by 11pc of gross domestic product (GDP) over the next five to ten years in order to preserve its role as a financial safe haven.
"If we continue to close our eyes to existing 8pc of GDP deficits, which when including Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare liabilities compose an average estimated 11pc annual 'fiscal gap,' then we will begin to resemble Greece before the turn of the next decade," Mr Gross wrote in his monthly note.
Mr Gross, who has referred in past outlooks to the unsustainable debt pile the United States continues to accumulate, added that stocks will be "singed" and bonds will be "burned to a crisp" if the United States does not handle its debt, and that "only gold and real assets will thrive."
walentinaThe US will never become like Greece because it controls its own currency. It can pay off its debts by printing money. However, if it fails to get its balance of payments and budget deficit under control it will steadily lose world influence.
Groupthink : Two Party System as Polyarchy : Corruption of Regulators : Bureaucracies : Understanding Micromanagers and Control Freaks : Toxic Managers : Harvard Mafia : Diplomatic Communication : Surviving a Bad Performance Review : Insufficient Retirement Funds as Immanent Problem of Neoliberal Regime : PseudoScience : Who Rules America : Neoliberalism : The Iron Law of Oligarchy : Libertarian Philosophy
War and Peace : Skeptical Finance : John Kenneth Galbraith :Talleyrand : Oscar Wilde : Otto Von Bismarck : Keynes : George Carlin : Skeptics : Propaganda : SE quotes : Language Design and Programming Quotes : Random IT-related quotes : Somerset Maugham : Marcus Aurelius : Kurt Vonnegut : Eric Hoffer : Winston Churchill : Napoleon Bonaparte : Ambrose Bierce : Bernard Shaw : Mark Twain Quotes
Vol 25, No.12 (December, 2013) Rational Fools vs. Efficient Crooks The efficient markets hypothesis : Political Skeptic Bulletin, 2013 : Unemployment Bulletin, 2010 : Vol 23, No.10 (October, 2011) An observation about corporate security departments : Slightly Skeptical Euromaydan Chronicles, June 2014 : Greenspan legacy bulletin, 2008 : Vol 25, No.10 (October, 2013) Cryptolocker Trojan (Win32/Crilock.A) : Vol 25, No.08 (August, 2013) Cloud providers as intelligence collection hubs : Financial Humor Bulletin, 2010 : Inequality Bulletin, 2009 : Financial Humor Bulletin, 2008 : Copyleft Problems Bulletin, 2004 : Financial Humor Bulletin, 2011 : Energy Bulletin, 2010 : Malware Protection Bulletin, 2010 : Vol 26, No.1 (January, 2013) Object-Oriented Cult : Political Skeptic Bulletin, 2011 : Vol 23, No.11 (November, 2011) Softpanorama classification of sysadmin horror stories : Vol 25, No.05 (May, 2013) Corporate bullshit as a communication method : Vol 25, No.06 (June, 2013) A Note on the Relationship of Brooks Law and Conway Law
Fifty glorious years (1950-2000): the triumph of the US computer engineering : Donald Knuth : TAoCP and its Influence of Computer Science : Richard Stallman : Linus Torvalds : Larry Wall : John K. Ousterhout : CTSS : Multix OS Unix History : Unix shell history : VI editor : History of pipes concept : Solaris : MS DOS : Programming Languages History : PL/1 : Simula 67 : C : History of GCC development : Scripting Languages : Perl history : OS History : Mail : DNS : SSH : CPU Instruction Sets : SPARC systems 1987-2006 : Norton Commander : Norton Utilities : Norton Ghost : Frontpage history : Malware Defense History : GNU Screen : OSS early history
The Peter Principle : Parkinson Law : 1984 : The Mythical Man-Month : How to Solve It by George Polya : The Art of Computer Programming : The Elements of Programming Style : The Unix Hater’s Handbook : The Jargon file : The True Believer : Programming Pearls : The Good Soldier Svejk : The Power Elite
Most popular humor pages:
Manifest of the Softpanorama IT Slacker Society : Ten Commandments of the IT Slackers Society : Computer Humor Collection : BSD Logo Story : The Cuckoo's Egg : IT Slang : C++ Humor : ARE YOU A BBS ADDICT? : The Perl Purity Test : Object oriented programmers of all nations : Financial Humor : Financial Humor Bulletin, 2008 : Financial Humor Bulletin, 2010 : The Most Comprehensive Collection of Editor-related Humor : Programming Language Humor : Goldman Sachs related humor : Greenspan humor : C Humor : Scripting Humor : Real Programmers Humor : Web Humor : GPL-related Humor : OFM Humor : Politically Incorrect Humor : IDS Humor : "Linux Sucks" Humor : Russian Musical Humor : Best Russian Programmer Humor : Microsoft plans to buy Catholic Church : Richard Stallman Related Humor : Admin Humor : Perl-related Humor : Linus Torvalds Related humor : PseudoScience Related Humor : Networking Humor : Shell Humor : Financial Humor Bulletin, 2011 : Financial Humor Bulletin, 2012 : Financial Humor Bulletin, 2013 : Java Humor : Software Engineering Humor : Sun Solaris Related Humor : Education Humor : IBM Humor : Assembler-related Humor : VIM Humor : Computer Viruses Humor : Bright tomorrow is rescheduled to a day after tomorrow : Classic Computer Humor
The Last but not Least Technology is dominated by two types of people: those who understand what they do not manage and those who manage what they do not understand ~Archibald Putt. Ph.D
Copyright © 1996-2018 by Dr. Nikolai Bezroukov. www.softpanorama.org was initially created as a service to the (now defunct) UN Sustainable Development Networking Programme (SDNP) in the author free time and without any remuneration. This document is an industrial compilation designed and created exclusively for educational use and is distributed under the Softpanorama Content License. Original materials copyright belong to respective owners. Quotes are made for educational purposes only in compliance with the fair use doctrine.
FAIR USE NOTICE This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available to advance understanding of computer science, IT technology, economic, scientific, and social issues. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided by section 107 of the US Copyright Law according to which such material can be distributed without profit exclusively for research and educational purposes.
This is a Spartan WHYFF (We Help You For Free) site written by people for whom English is not a native language. Grammar and spelling errors should be expected. The site contain some broken links as it develops like a living tree...
|You can use PayPal to make a contribution, supporting development of this site and speed up access. In case softpanorama.org is down you can use the at softpanorama.info|
The statements, views and opinions presented on this web page are those of the author (or referenced source) and are not endorsed by, nor do they necessarily reflect, the opinions of the author present and former employers, SDNP or any other organization the author may be associated with. We do not warrant the correctness of the information provided or its fitness for any purpose.
Last modified: March, 12, 2019