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Financial Skeptic Bulletin,  2011

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2011 – THE YEAR OF CATCH-22 (Featured Article) « The Burning Platform

It seems the consensus for 2011 is that the economy will grow 3% to 4%, two million new jobs will be created, corporate profits will rise, and the stock market will rise another 10% to 15%. Sounds pretty good. The problem with this storyline is that it is based on a 2010 that gave the appearance of recovery, but was a hoax propped up by trillions in borrowed funds. On January 1, 2010 the National Debt of the United States rested at $12.3 trillion. On December 31, 2010 the National Debt checked in at $13.9 trillion, an increase of $1.6 trillion.

[Finnacial Armagetton]:

It was nearly a year ago when I made reference to the big assumption underlying most efforts to reverse the tide of rising red ink and economic destruction unleashed by the Great Unraveling:

Throughout the financial crisis, policymakers have focused on keeping things afloat until the storm passes. They've spent vast sums of taxpayer funds trying to jumpstart growth until the economy is back on track. They've encouraged people to keep the faith until businesses start hiring again.

But what happens if all those "untils" turn out to be wide of the mark?

2011 prediction March

2011 predictions

How 2010 predictions fared

Q3 2010 Predictions (July, 2010)

General consideration

Q2 2010 Predictions (April 2010)

  1. General considerations.

  2. Double dip postponed till late 2011 or even the second half of 2012 or as they call it "hunt for the Red October".

  3. Housing will continue to deteriorate, unemployment will drive foreclosures higher as no sustainable recovery is possible after wages decline so much and oil price reached $100 per barrel....

    Supporting evidence: A Few House Price Forecasts

    11/20/2011 | CalculatedRisk
    From housing consultant Ivy Zelman commenting on the MBA Delinquency report in the NY Times U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Reach a Record High
    "I've been pretty bearish on this big ugly pig stuck in the python and this cements my view that home prices are going back down."
    From Bloomberg: Housing Recovery in U.S. Set Back to 2010 as Market Wanes
    "I don't think the housing crisis is over," Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody's Economy.com, said in a telephone interview. "I think we're going to see another leg down."
    From Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius in a note to clients: A Renewed Sag in the Housing Market (no link)
    "Our current working assumption is a 5%-10% drop in home prices through the middle of 2010. ... house prices and credit quality ... to weigh on the US financial system, the availability of bank credit, and ultimately the pace of the economic recovery."
    My view is that house prices might have bottomed in some non-bubble areas, and also in some low end bubble areas with high foreclosure rates, however I expect further price decline in many mid-to-high end bubble areas.

Disclaimer: This page is mainly an exercise in self-education that was made available to others in a hope that it might be useful. The stories on this page are financial blogs stories picked by me from the Internet; in addition to being late some or most represent a typical market noise that is mostly irrelevant. You are warned !

Please read them critically and apply sound judgment. Very plausible stories and explanations can in retrospect be dead wrong. All 401K investors should be warned about the 95% rule, which states that about 95% of what you read about finance and economy is either wrong or irrelevant. In investment, 95% is probably a very conservative number. This site is no exception...


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Bulletin:

Vol 25, No.12 (December, 2013) Rational Fools vs. Efficient Crooks The efficient markets hypothesis : Political Skeptic Bulletin, 2013 : Unemployment Bulletin, 2010 :  Vol 23, No.10 (October, 2011) An observation about corporate security departments : Slightly Skeptical Euromaydan Chronicles, June 2014 : Greenspan legacy bulletin, 2008 : Vol 25, No.10 (October, 2013) Cryptolocker Trojan (Win32/Crilock.A) : Vol 25, No.08 (August, 2013) Cloud providers as intelligence collection hubs : Financial Humor Bulletin, 2010 : Inequality Bulletin, 2009 : Financial Humor Bulletin, 2008 : Copyleft Problems Bulletin, 2004 : Financial Humor Bulletin, 2011 : Energy Bulletin, 2010 : Malware Protection Bulletin, 2010 : Vol 26, No.1 (January, 2013) Object-Oriented Cult : Political Skeptic Bulletin, 2011 : Vol 23, No.11 (November, 2011) Softpanorama classification of sysadmin horror stories : Vol 25, No.05 (May, 2013) Corporate bullshit as a communication method  : Vol 25, No.06 (June, 2013) A Note on the Relationship of Brooks Law and Conway Law

History:

Fifty glorious years (1950-2000): the triumph of the US computer engineering : Donald Knuth : TAoCP and its Influence of Computer Science : Richard Stallman : Linus Torvalds  : Larry Wall  : John K. Ousterhout : CTSS : Multix OS Unix History : Unix shell history : VI editor : History of pipes concept : Solaris : MS DOSProgramming Languages History : PL/1 : Simula 67 : C : History of GCC developmentScripting Languages : Perl history   : OS History : Mail : DNS : SSH : CPU Instruction Sets : SPARC systems 1987-2006 : Norton Commander : Norton Utilities : Norton Ghost : Frontpage history : Malware Defense History : GNU Screen : OSS early history

Classic books:

The Peter Principle : Parkinson Law : 1984 : The Mythical Man-MonthHow to Solve It by George Polya : The Art of Computer Programming : The Elements of Programming Style : The Unix Hater’s Handbook : The Jargon file : The True Believer : Programming Pearls : The Good Soldier Svejk : The Power Elite

Most popular humor pages:

Manifest of the Softpanorama IT Slacker Society : Ten Commandments of the IT Slackers Society : Computer Humor Collection : BSD Logo Story : The Cuckoo's Egg : IT Slang : C++ Humor : ARE YOU A BBS ADDICT? : The Perl Purity Test : Object oriented programmers of all nations : Financial Humor : Financial Humor Bulletin, 2008 : Financial Humor Bulletin, 2010 : The Most Comprehensive Collection of Editor-related Humor : Programming Language Humor : Goldman Sachs related humor : Greenspan humor : C Humor : Scripting Humor : Real Programmers Humor : Web Humor : GPL-related Humor : OFM Humor : Politically Incorrect Humor : IDS Humor : "Linux Sucks" Humor : Russian Musical Humor : Best Russian Programmer Humor : Microsoft plans to buy Catholic Church : Richard Stallman Related Humor : Admin Humor : Perl-related Humor : Linus Torvalds Related humor : PseudoScience Related Humor : Networking Humor : Shell Humor : Financial Humor Bulletin, 2011 : Financial Humor Bulletin, 2012 : Financial Humor Bulletin, 2013 : Java Humor : Software Engineering Humor : Sun Solaris Related Humor : Education Humor : IBM Humor : Assembler-related Humor : VIM Humor : Computer Viruses Humor : Bright tomorrow is rescheduled to a day after tomorrow : Classic Computer Humor

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