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[Dec 25, 2019] Wheel of Fortune: The Battle for Oil and Power in Russia

Dec 25, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

pogohere , Dec 24 2019 18:17 utc | 107

Kevin @ 18

Try this: Wheel of Fortune: The Battle for Oil and Power in Russia – May 15, 2017

by Thane Gustafson


A review @ Amazon:

Thane masterfully succeeded in uncovering the fundamental drivers of the Russian oil industry and its interdependency with the political complex through a comprehensive and convincing historical analysis, with plenty of meaningful insights and endearing anecdotes. Rooted in Soviet legacy and having gone through the 90s bust-boom roller coaster and 2000s state reconsolidation the industry is a unique globally isolated eco system, and, with Russia as a whole, is at a crossroads. A must read for any decision maker in the O&G business.

I've read it and this review is a good summary.

[Dec 21, 2019] The problem with shale is that it is expensive oil, despite what companies such as XOM and CVX put out publicly. However, it has a big advantage in that it is onshore, USA.

Dec 21, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

shallow sand x Ignored says: 12/13/2019 at 8:19 am

HB. The problem with shale is that it is expensive oil, despite what companies such as XOM and CVX put out publicly. However, it has a big advantage in that it is onshore, USA.

I think part of the reason that XOM, CVX, COP, MRO and other companies with worldwide operations keep at it is because it is onshore lower 48.

I remember when everything that these companies were doing was international. It required employees to live in some less than desirable places. Recall the stories I have related here about employees of these companies having less than 24 hours to leave Libya, or being herded out of the office in Venezuela at gunpoint.

Working offshore can't be a picnic. Also, the liability is great, see BP's disaster.

The management and employees want shale to work very badly. And it does at a high enough oil price. Unfortunately, the price hasn't been there since 2014. But they keep making stuff up because they don't want to be sent back to the Middle East and other tough places, or work offshore deepwater.

But what has been bad for the companies has been great for consumers. I can't believe how much Bernie and Elizabeth ignore the benefit shale has been to the US economy.

What would have happened without US going from less than 5 million BOPD to almost 13 million in eleven years? I suspect a lot of bad things. My primary beef is that the companies lie about what price they need for shale to work and completed too many wells when prices were low.

I think maybe shale is finally figuring out they need above my preferred $55-65 WTI price band. We have been slightly below that and it appears things are really slowing down.

[Dec 21, 2019] Interesting article by HFI Research yesterday, making the case for the start of a multi year bull market for oil

Dec 21, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

TonyEriksen x Ignored says: 12/13/2019 at 5:14 pm

Interesting article by HFI Research yesterday, making the case for the start of a multi year bull market for oil.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4312385-oil-things-are-starting-to-look-brighter

Also lots of Goldman Sachs charts, with the one below showing a peak plateau from 2022 to 2025. The legend is missing 3 shale plays. The bottom dark blue is Delaware (Permian), Midland (Permian) above and Bakken, the grey.

My own guess is US shale oil will peak in 2021.

[Dec 21, 2019] Energy crisis looms as forecasts ignore US shale oil quality

Dec 21, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Survivalist x Ignored says: 12/19/2019 at 3:44 pm

Energy crisis looms as forecasts ignore US shale oil quality

https://www.anasalhajji.com/publications/oil-market-general/energy-crisis-looms-forecasts-ignore-us-shale-oil-quality

Freddy Gulestø x Ignored says: 12/20/2019 at 4:30 am
Good article, I believe it will not only be related to US shale oil quality but also a more or less collapse in US shale , to use the shale pioneer Mark Papas words from 2019 " the best in US shale is behind " but the investors choose to not believe him as it not fits with what the shale producers had presented them. Perhaps this time wall street will learn a lesson that might be quite exspensive. I am waiting for how much Exxon will write down of their assets in Permian, that might be higher than Chevron have annonsed.
Dennis Coyne x Ignored says: 12/20/2019 at 10:24 am
Tight oil output will not increase as much as forecast by IEA and OPEC so it is not likely a refining wall at the World level will be be reached. As to demand outrunning supply, when that occurs oil prices will rise to a level that demand is destroyed to the point that supply will equal consumption as it must over the long term. Demand (consumption) cannot be higher than supply (output) for very long as stocks cannot be less than zero plus pipeline fill and minimum storage tank levels needed to keep the overall refinery and distribution system functioning. Oil prices will rise from 2020 to 2030, of that we can be sure, unless a severe World recession occurs (I expect this to begin in 2030+/-2 years and last for 2 to 4 years if World economists remember their Keynesian economics, otherwise it could be 5 to 7 years, if nonsense like fiscal austerity in the face of severe recessions is recommended and we are foolish enough to forget the lessons of 1929-1933.)
Watcher x Ignored says: 12/20/2019 at 2:05 pm
Oil quality is not the way to address or label the issue. Quality is a word traditionally used in oil to describe sulphur content, not a scarcity of middle distillates in the yield. Needs a different word.

Further, from the article, diesel is not the consumption growth heavy constituent. It's jet fuel. Up 3.7% last year. Gasoline was up almost 1%.

[Dec 21, 2019] IHS says that modest growth is expected in 2022, but they don't quantify how much growth. I believe this sentence was added because IHS does not want to be accused of implying US oil production has peaked.

Notable quotes:
"... Given decreasing money available to shale oil, declining frac spread counts and falling rig counts, I now guess that US peak oil month is Nov 2019. Permian oil production should continue increasing slowly but it's not enough to offset falling production from other shale basins and other conventional oil basins. ..."
Dec 21, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

TonyEriksen x Ignored says: 12/18/2019 at 6:49 pm

EIA weekly supply estimates released, declining from the last two weeks of Nov at 12.9 mbd down to 12.8 mbd for the first two weeks of Dec.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

HFIR is showing a US peak for 2019 in November of 12.7 mbd.
https://twitter.com/HFI_Research/status/1207413992848674816

IHS stated that "The new IHS Markit outlook for oil market fundamentals for 2019-2021 expects total U.S. production growth to be 440,000 barrels per day in 2020 before essentially flattening out in 2021. Modest growth is expected to resume in 2022."
https://news.ihsmarkit.com/prviewer/release_only/slug/energy-base-decline-rate-oil-and-gas-output-permian-basin-has-increased-dramatically-b

EIA STEO says US oil production in 2019 is 12.25 mbd. That means that IHS is forecasting 12.69 mbd in 2020. This 0.44 mbd growth is assumed to come from the 7 US shale regions on EIA DPR. In 2019, shale region production was 8.60 mbd. 2020 shale region production is forecast to be 9.04 mbd, after 0.44 mbd growth. EIA DPR says that Jan 2020 shale region production is 9.14 mbd which is greater than 9.04 mbd which means that IHS 0.44 mbd 2020 growth implies that a US peak oil is happening about now.

IHS says that modest growth is expected in 2022, but they don't quantify how much growth. I believe this sentence was added because IHS does not want to be accused of implying US oil production has peaked. Dan Yergin, vice chair of IHS, founded CERA in 1982 which is now owned by IHS. Dan Yergin "clearly doesn't care about converting peak oilers. He really wants to influence Washington." In other words, IHS says modest growth in 2022, to please Washington politicians. US shale growth might increase in 2022, even with higher oil prices, but I'm guessing it won't.
http://transitionvoice.com/2011/09/whos-afraid-of-daniel-yergin/

Given decreasing money available to shale oil, declining frac spread counts and falling rig counts, I now guess that US peak oil month is Nov 2019. Permian oil production should continue increasing slowly but it's not enough to offset falling production from other shale basins and other conventional oil basins.

TonyEriksen x Ignored says: 12/20/2019 at 5:05 pm
North American shale is expected to hit an inflection point in 2020. Our expert, Raoul LeBlanc, VP of Unconventionals, shared his insights on what's ahead for North American #shale markets.
https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/video-north-american-shale-hits-an-inflection-point-in-2020.html

[Dec 18, 2019] Saudi Aramco team arrive in Syria's oil fields

Dec 18, 2019 | www.zerohedge.com

Thinking123 , 16 minutes ago link

Saudi Aramco team arrive in Syria's oil fields: https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20191217-saudi-aramco-team-arrive-in-syrias-oil-fields/

It is believed that the investments will be made through contracts signed between Aramco and the US government, whose armed forces have steadily been increasing their military presence in terms of manpower and equipment around the oil fields. Despite initially claiming to scale back troops from Syria, US President Donald Trump announced in October that America had " secured " and taken control of the oil in the Middle East.

uhland62 , 1 hour ago link

It's up to us now to expose the mendacity, although Pompeo admitted to lying, which gives us a bit more credibility.

I have been stung and yes, I expose as much mendacity as possible. Whether it makes a difference, I don't know but some seeds have taken roots.

Arising , 1 hour ago link

Russia should just grow a pair of balls and say 'NO'

No more attacks on Syria from NATO because last time you lied.

No more sanctions, or we will block black sea to NATO terrorists.

No more terrorist attacks from the occupiers of Palestine.

No more wrongly accusing other nations of doing what NATO specialises in- Terrorism.

No more standing on the sidelines and watching the U.S-Zio regime steam roll into a war with Iran.

'NO'

DarthVaderMentor , 1 hour ago link

The sad reality is that the Washington Post, New York Times and most of the mainstream TV and radio media are worse liars and better propagandists for the US Military-Industrial Complex than Pravda was for the Soviet Communist Party. There is no and never was an fair and balanced journalism. There's even no professional journalism!

My Russian opponents and Latin friends now laugh that I don't believe anything coming from US media today and I'm hoarding hard and untraceable assets just like they do in the Eastern Bloc, Middle East and Cuba. The 21st Century might yet be the century of dictators and their storm troopers who learned their lessons from Hitler and Stalin.

If populism and Trump don't survive the coup it'll be pretty grim times for the non-elites in America. The revenge from the weirdos and the leftist globalist Marxists will definitely start US Civil War 2.

Giant Meteor , 2 hours ago link

Yes and thank you for stating fundamental and obvious truths ..

on the other hand ,

"The Washington Post performed a service to the country by shedding light on the disinformation used to sustain endless war. But the Post's intentions are also political, seeking to undermine Trump's electoral chances by damaging Trump's military credentials as well as his standing amongst military personnel. What Washington's elite and the Post do not know, or perhaps prefer to ignore, is that such media investigations directed against political opponents actually end up doing irreparable damage to the political and military prestige of the United States."

The Washington Compost May well have an ax to grind with and motive for publishing newfound truthiness, it's a miracle ! I fail to see however, just how Trump takes credit in the bull **** fog, of the longest running war, motivations department.

other than that ...

And so in closing, I would be more inclined to believe sir, propagandizing, the propaganda, with such an opinion, is just another kin to, let's say, the impeachment farce in example. Or in the words of "The father of modern day marketing", an obvious attempt at further shaping public opinion, for the masses, an opinion that grows more weary, more suspicious, more distrustful, and divergent from government and their various mouth pieces, by the day.

Stating obvious points such as you have, and blowing it with flawed analysis, is not a good look ..

Washington Compost, has a much more simple, damaging ,and nefarious agenda.

Truth is being revealed, regarding the mountain of year on year lies, spoon fed to the bewildered, inflamed, dispassionate, and cowed citizenry, as the bull **** gets harder to peddle, more impossible to digest whole.

And is happening with or without the post, and likewise, various other "main stream" mouth pieces and government hacks (in the interests of national security, of course.)

*Note. Lots of editing, this comment.

Xscream , 2 hours ago link

Very similar to the Pentagon papers revealing the truth about Vietnam policy. We never learn as a nation. Wars never go as expected.

[Nov 15, 2019] Political islam is not the angloamerican's problem, it's their creation (as in they made it into a problem). It serves their interest in keeping the oil rich Middle Eastern countries divided among tribal and sectarian lines and ruled by backward cryptotheocratic despotic dynasties.

Nov 15, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

Lurk , Nov 14 2019 20:21 utc | 129

@ Gerhard | Nov 14 2019 18:21 utc | 118

Islam is not the angloamerican's problem, it's their creation (as in they made it into a problem). It serves their interest in keeping the oil rich Middle Eastern countries divided among tribal and sectarian lines and ruled by backward cryptotheocratic despotic dynasties. The fundamentalist extremist jihadists can be sicked on Europe, Southern Russia and Western China, to upset society when required by strategic interests.

You totally disregard my objection that there is no need for the Russians to become aggressive towards (the rest of) Europe. Good trade relations are their best interest. If and when Europe would socially and economically collapse, they would rather keep the problems out, instead of getting sucked in themselves.

[Nov 11, 2019] flankerbandit

Nov 11, 2019 | jetguyone.home.blog

| Nov 11 2019 18:39 utc | 144

[Nov 04, 2019] President Assad has an interesting perspective on occupation

Nov 04, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

BM , Nov 3 2019 19:09 utc | 34

... ... ..

I agree with you 100% on Trump and Syrian oil. It is smoke and mirrors forced by the resistance of the Elites. I think Trump knows - and accepts - that grabbing to oil is not viable and that the US will be forced eventually to relinquish it, but it would be domestically too difficult to do so at the moment.


james , Nov 3 2019 19:35 utc | 35

@29 bevin... thanks also.. that was well articulated and i agree with your overview...
james , Nov 3 2019 19:40 utc | 36
just in... i wonder what the upshot of this will be?

US military convoy comes under fire of Turkey-backed militants in Syria, no casualties – Russian Defense Ministry

i wonder if they're turkish or usa arms that were given these goons? the usa is being attacked by weapons that gave to the friendly moderate headchoppers? the irony is rich if so...

john , Nov 3 2019 19:51 utc | 37
flankerbandit says:

And as soon as the SDF fighters make that final break from the US...then it's game over...it is really inevitable...the die is already cast...

yeah, perhaps. President Assad has an interesting perspective on occupation ...a much more profound and apparently longer view (from a recent interview )

Journalist: returning to politics, and to the United States, in particular, President Donald Trump announced his intention to keep a limited number of his troops in Syria while redeploying some of them on the Jordanian borders and on the borders of the Israeli enemy, while some of them will protect the oil fields. What is your position in this regard, and how will the Syrian state respond to this illegitimate presence

President Assad: Regardless of these statements, the reality is that the Americans are occupiers, whether they are in the east, the north or the south, the result is the same. Once again, we should not be concerned with his statements, but rather deal with the reality. When we are finished with the areas according to our military priorities and we reach an area in which the Americans are present, I am not going to indulge in heroics and say that we will send the army to face the Americans. We are talking about a super power. Do we have the capabilities to do that? I believe that this is clear for us as Syrians. Do we choose resistance? If there is resistance, the fate of the Americans will be similar to their fate in Iraq. But the concept of resistance needs a popular state of mind that is the opposite of being agents and proxies, a patriotic popular state which carries out acts of resistance. The natural role of the state in this case is to provide all the necessary conditions and necessary support to any popular resistance against the occupier. If we put to one side the colonial and commercial American mentality which promotes the colonization of certain areas for money, oil and other resources, we must not forget that the main agents which brought the Americans, the Turks and others to this region are Syrians acting as agents of foreigners – Syrian traitors. Dealing with all the other cases is just dealing with the symptoms, while we should be addressing the causes. We should be dealing with those Syrians and try to reformulate the patriotic state of the Syrian society – to restore patriotism, restore the unity of opinion and ensure that there are no Syrian traitors. To ensure that all Syrians are patriots, and that treason is no longer a matter of opinion, a mere difference over a political issue. We should all be united against occupation. When we reach this state, I assure you that the Americans will leave on their own accord because they will have no opportunity to remain in Syria; although America is a superpower, it will not be able to remain in Syria. This is something we saw in Lebanon at a certain point and in Iraq at a later stage. I think this is the right solution

William Gruff , Nov 3 2019 20:13 utc | 39
I think Trump has been being loud and blunt about America taking Syria's oil precisely because he knows that it is neither legal nor viable. If he can establish the narrative that all it is now about is oil then the US will be forced to do as Trump has wanted all along and leave Syria.

Reverse psychology.

The role the American President is supposed to be playing for the empire right now is pushing the narrative of a need for more humanitarian murder and downplaying/dismissing any suggestion that the US is in Syria for any reason other than pure altruism. Trump outright stating that the US is going to take the oil is utterly destroying the only narratives that the US can use to stay in Syria.

That is much more clever than I had ever given Trump credit for being.

/div> " Impeachment Theater , Main November 03, 2019 The MoA Week In Review - Open Thread 2019-64

Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama were fewer than usual as your host was a bit under the weather.

This from WaPo is ridiculous:

> [Lt.Col. Vindman] told lawmakers that he was deeply troubled by what he interpreted as an attempt by the president to subvert U.S. foreign policy and an improper attempt to coerce a foreign government into investigating a U.S. citizen. <

That the WaPo scribe lets it stand without pointing out that, constitutionally, the president sets foreign policies is even worse. An earlier NYT piece about an NSC staffer who Trump likes and had asked about the Ukraine had a similar bad construct :

> Any involvement by Mr. Patel in Ukraine issues would signal another attempt by Mr. Trump's political loyalists to go around American policymakers to shape policy toward Kiev. <

Other issues:

A good overview of how the conflict in Syria developed:
Russia Isn't Getting the Recognition It Deserves on Syria - Scott Ritter, Truthdig
US Needs To Occupy Syria Because Of Kurds Or Iran Or Chemical Weapons Or Oil Or Whatever - Caitlin Johnstone

Former U.S. supplied proxy forces kill other former U.S. supplied proxy forces with U.S. supplied weapons (video):

Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ @CalibreObscura - 8:24 PM · Nov 2, 2019
TFSA hitting a YPG/SDF vehicle (Humvee?) with a likely originally US-supplied BGM-71 TOW ATGM.
video

Russiagate: Growing Indicators of Brennan's CIA Trump Task Force - Larry Johnson, SST
Ukrainegate: Some interesting backstories on John Brennan in this Kiriakou and Matt Taibbi talk. Kiriakou thinks that the 'whistleblower complaint' is a part of the CIA plot against Trump:
CIA Whistleblower John Kiriakou on Impeachment, "Assets," and the Espionage Act | Useful Idiots (vid)

Last week Germany won an important battle against the U.S.:
Denmark grants permit for construction of Nord Stream 2 pipeline in its waters - Tass
Europe's gas alliance with Russia is a match made in heaven - M. K. BHADRAKUMAR, Indian Punchline

Use as open thread ...

Posted by b on November 3, 2019 at 14:18 UTC | Permalink

" Impeachment Theater | Main November 03, 2019 The MoA Week In Review - Open Thread 2019-64

Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama were fewer than usual as your host was a bit under the weather.

This from WaPo is ridiculous:

> [Lt.Col. Vindman] told lawmakers that he was deeply troubled by what he interpreted as an attempt by the president to subvert U.S. foreign policy and an improper attempt to coerce a foreign government into investigating a U.S. citizen. <

That the WaPo scribe lets it stand without pointing out that, constitutionally, the president sets foreign policies is even worse. An earlier NYT piece about an NSC staffer who Trump likes and had asked about the Ukraine had a similar bad construct :

> Any involvement by Mr. Patel in Ukraine issues would signal another attempt by Mr. Trump's political loyalists to go around American policymakers to shape policy toward Kiev. <

Other issues:

A good overview of how the conflict in Syria developed:
Russia Isn't Getting the Recognition It Deserves on Syria - Scott Ritter, Truthdig
US Needs To Occupy Syria Because Of Kurds Or Iran Or Chemical Weapons Or Oil Or Whatever - Caitlin Johnstone

Former U.S. supplied proxy forces kill other former U.S. supplied proxy forces with U.S. supplied weapons (video):

Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ @CalibreObscura - 8:24 PM · Nov 2, 2019
TFSA hitting a YPG/SDF vehicle (Humvee?) with a likely originally US-supplied BGM-71 TOW ATGM.
video

Russiagate: Growing Indicators of Brennan's CIA Trump Task Force - Larry Johnson, SST
Ukrainegate: Some interesting backstories on John Brennan in this Kiriakou and Matt Taibbi talk. Kiriakou thinks that the 'whistleblower complaint' is a part of the CIA plot against Trump:
CIA Whistleblower John Kiriakou on Impeachment, "Assets," and the Espionage Act | Useful Idiots (vid)

Last week Germany won an important battle against the U.S.:
Denmark grants permit for construction of Nord Stream 2 pipeline in its waters - Tass
Europe's gas alliance with Russia is a match made in heaven - M. K. BHADRAKUMAR, Indian Punchline

Use as open thread ...

Posted by b on November 3, 2019 at 14:18 UTC | Permalink

div
jo6pac , Nov 3 2019 14:45 utc | 1
It was a weird week sadly it is only going to get weirder. Have safe Sunday all and thanks b for your time to get the truth out.
Peter AU1 , Nov 3 2019 15:05 utc | 2
From Caitlin Johnstone's piece...
"We were told that the US must intervene in Syria because the Syrian government was massacring its people. We were told that the US must intervene in Syria in order to promote freedom and democracy in the Middle East. We were told that the US must intervene in Syria because Assad used chemical weapons. We were told that the US must occupy Syria to fight ISIS. We were told that the US must continue to occupy Syria to counter Iranian influence. We were told the US must continue to occupy Syria to protect the Kurds. Now the US must continue to occupy Syria because of oil."

US is in Syria for Israel. Keeping the Syrian oil now is about covering the cost of US long term occupation of the Syrian border for Israel.
Now to see if Trump can come out of the Iraq color revolution holding Iraq's oil. Whatever the outcome in Iraq, the current operation against it has prevented Iraq making any noises about what US is doing in Syria and US access of border crossings into Syria.

Jackrabbit , Nov 3 2019 15:07 utc | 3
Later this week:

Iran warned months ago it would take further action to free itself from JCPOA restrictions if Europe was not going to stand up to USA bullying and that is supposed to happen later this week. That would likely mean the initiation of the "snap back" process to reimpose UN sanctions.

We should see some sort of resolution of the Israeli election. Netanyahu's former Defense Minister is the key decision-maker. Will he bend the knee or force a third election?

!!

Walter , Nov 3 2019 15:23 utc | 4
I might be willing to explore how democracy is being endangered (by endorsing anything) if I could find any example of democracy beyond a ham-radio club or boy scout patrol.

The deep state, and every state shallow deep or in-between, "limits" democracy... This is the essence of all states. And this limitation means that the "democracy" is essentially a fraud, a deception, a ringer, a method of "perception management" - a way of making the mark believe in the con.

I don't mind this reality, it's normal and probably a good thing (think about it).

But I do object to the implications, such as, inter alia, that democracy exists in reality on any significant scale, and that it's desirable - and worst of all, that's it's not a costume - wizard of oz time boys and girls?

You bet... Now go watch the magic show and stop thinking...

vk , Nov 3 2019 15:29 utc | 5
Saudi Arabia's Aramco officially kick-starts IPO procedure

Newer estimates bet on USD 1.7 trn -- much less than the earlier ones. The process will be slow ("very cautious") and it's not disclosed if they will be negotiated at the LSE or Wall Street.

The capitalists bet on China capitulating to a "capitalist reform" and opening up its precious productive chains and financial sector to open exploitation by Western capital. It didn't happen and now they will sack Saudi wealth. Saudi Arabia will have to "take one for the team"; as a sweetener, they will probably receive nuclear energy technology from the Americans (a technology which, as we already know, can be adapted to develop nuclear weapons).

Peter AU1 , Nov 3 2019 15:32 utc | 6
US now controlling the oil field at Rumailan.

https://twitter.com/search?q=syria%20oil%20Rumailan&src=typd
https://twitter.com/search?q=syria%20oil%20Rumailan&src=typd

A report here dated Sep 23 on US setting up bases to control the oil.
Provides some detail on bases.
https://www.memri.org/reports/syrian-opposition-website-provides-details-locations-us-bases-northern-syria

Jackrabbit , Nov 3 2019 15:37 utc | 7
Peter AU1 @2

This notion of USA profiting from the oil is a smokescreen. It seems much more likely that the oil will be used by, any profits received by, whatever local Syrian organization USA approves of.

Notice that CJ doesn't cite Israel among the many reasons for USA to stay - despite Trump's having done so (he did!). And, while she attacks USA's evil intentions, she's careful not to support Assad ( "I'm not an Assadist -- he's a Caitlinist" ).

I notice this principally because CJ has also sought to elevate Max Blumenthal to a "dissident journalist" on par with Assange via imagery and the formulation: "first they came for Assange ... then they came for Blumenthal" .

CJ MUST KNOW that Max B. was a champion of the effort to oust Assad even when he clearly should've know that it was US-Israeli-Saudi proxy war.

CJ MUST KNOW that Max's 2-day suspiciously-arranged imprisonment is nothing like what Assange has experienced.

CJ MUST KNOW that Assange and Clinton are mortal enemies (not an exaggeration as Assange is slowly killed) .

CJ MUST KNOW that Max's father is a long-time Clinton operative.

!!

Walter , Nov 3 2019 15:47 utc | 8
I see Joshua Landis' twitter says "In 2012, Erdogan asked al Assad to put Muslim Brothers into his Cabinet. When al Assad refused, the former minister said, Erdogan made clear that he would back all efforts to remove the president and replace him with Islamists."

"Turkey May Have Stepped Into Its Own 'Endless War' in Syria"

Ok... and now an entirely unrelated coincidence...Cosmic disaster: Massive fire ravages astronomy center in Turkish capital (VIDEO)

Nothing to see, move along.

Jackrabbit , Nov 3 2019 15:54 utc | 9
Also worthy of note is Pat Lang's censorship of a comment that made about how bogus Russiagate and Ukrainegate are.

Both the Left and the Right love the partisan food fight that distracts and entertains the masses. LOL.

But it wasn't enough to simply delete the comment, he felt it necessary to smear me, first as a bitter old pensioner, then as a marxist: A rule about comments and commenters .

!!

Jackrabbit , Nov 3 2019 15:55 utc | 10
comment that I made
Noirette , Nov 3 2019 16:11 utc | 11
Gabbard. I read the OFF act today. Compared to AOC's Green New Deal, my take.

AOC is more mainstream than TG., third-wayer USA style, supports Sanders (OK.. in the pol landscape..) and is more influential / accepted in the establishment. Gabbard far better, on anti-war and other.

A brief look at climate + energy.

Both are pie-in-the sky and 'claim' meeting 100 percent of the power demand in the United States through clean, renewable, and zero-emission energy sources.

AOC p.7.. TG similar.

Both propose an aim of "zero carbon emissions" or "net zero carbon" by 2035. (not the same thing of course, but much is confused...)

AOC includes very sweeping societal aims (green jobs etc.), international collab, education, and even:

ensuring a commercial environment where every businessperson is free from unfair competition and domination by domestic or international monopolies

Heh! in the US?

..but is prudent in its language, the phrase as much as technologically feasible is used v. often. Ex.

working collaboratively with farmers and ranchers in the United States to remove pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector as much as is techno- logically feasible ..

AOC promotes removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere aka,'new' carbon capture tech (p. 9.)

*Vs.* TG, the language is clear, the position hard and logically consistent, a "zero carbon economy, using only renewable generation by 2035", > all electric, as nuclear power is also verboten.

/ -- How and where the electric energy is produced, stored, delivered to the end user, is not addressed by either bills. Both are against nuclear. These are pol. discourses, and not based on any analysis of 'energy' -- /

TG OFF act is more sympathetic imho in the sense that it details impacts on poor communities and that these must be adressed, reversed. Many of the points in it are excellent (but only tangentially linked to energy policy.. or climate..), she wants to stop / reverse harm, vs. AOC who touts fantastico green jobs.

refs in 2.

Noirette , Nov 3 2019 16:14 utc | 12
tulsi on climate change

https://www.tulsigabbard.org/tulsi-gabbard-on-climate-change

OFF act ("off fossil fuels") - link is to US gov site

https://bit.ly/2PLxK5J

green new deal AOC

wiki (some history etc.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_New_Deal

link is to US gov site

https://bit.ly/2WE6Uhf

Peter AU1 , Nov 3 2019 16:22 utc | 13
Jackrabbit "And, while she attacks USA's evil intentions, she's careful not to support Assad ("I'm not an Assadist -- he's a Caitlinist")."

This seems common amongst those that identify as green or progressive and not just on Syria and Assad. Assange was similar.
Not long back, I was reading the twitter accounts of a few young and foolish journalists that believed the crap put out by the likes of bellingcrap, so went to Syria to report on the 'revolution'. They ended up featuring in snuff movies but their twitter accounts are still open.

vk , Nov 3 2019 16:43 utc | 14
Apud Michael Roberts blog's facebook:
Robert Reich:
Thanks to Trump's trade wars, US farm bankruptcies in Sept. soared to 24% -- highest level since 2011. Nearly 40% of projected farm profit this year will come from trade aid, disaster assistance, & federal subsidies. Farm aid has now cost more than double the 2009 auto bailout.
james , Nov 3 2019 16:44 utc | 15
thanks b! it's always interesting and thought provoking..

regarding the M. K. BHADRAKUMAR article on nord 2, it seems to me that the coming together of russia and europe is only a matter of time.. as much as the usa would like to impede this, i can't see them being successful.. fact is russia is a part of europe! trying to keep them separate can't work.. new world order...

@7 jackrabbit.. i think where you and i differ is in that you will take a shred of truth - a molehill - and make a mountain out of it.. that's what it looks like with the cj analysis.. i have to say it seems you do the same with the deep state too.. sure there is some truth to what you say, but i think your conclusions are wrong mostly because who make a mountain out of a mole hill.. but regardless, i still appreciate how attached you are to your mountains - but i just don't see it like you..

@12 noirette... thanks for sharing your perspective on all that! it seems to me AOC has been given the fast track hard sell in the msm, where as TG has been given the cold shoulder... someone is really preening AOC for future exploitation as i see it.. i could be wrong.. i have said this before as well..

Likklemore , Nov 3 2019 17:04 utc | 16
Forgetful Biden gave an interview with the WSJ. He speaks for Israel. The same Israel's plan of some 45 years ago: break up the surrounding countries into warring statelets and we can live and steal in peace; piece by piece.

Biden Compares Trump's Syrian Oil Theft Policy to 'Giant 300-Foot Daesh Recruiting Poster

[.] Leaving troops behind like [Trump's] doing now – he says that what he wants to do is we're going to occupy the oil fields and we're going to take 'em. That's like a giant 300-foot recruiting poster for ISIS," Biden said, speaking to the Wall Street Journal.[.]

"Russia's position in the region has just been strengthened. [Syrian President Bashar] Assad's position has been strengthened. Iran now has a pathway all the way to Syria and even to Lebanon. If I'm the Israelis I'm not going to be very happy about that. So the whole thing has been turned upside down and we're in there alone now, basically," the former vice president said.[.]

Timber Sycamore

During his tenure as Barack Obama's vice president, Biden was a key supporter of sending US arms to the militants fighting against Damascus. He was involved in the Central Intelligence Agency's classified weapons supply and training programme, known as Timber Sycamore, which equipped and trained thousands of fighters between 2012 and 2017, when it was closed down by the Trump administration.

Those lapel flag pins with the stars and stripes should be replaced by the blue and white star of David flag pins because it is what it is.

Clueless Joe , Nov 3 2019 17:05 utc | 17
Western/Central Europe coming to terms with Russia and settling down for good relations between neighbours should've been the obvious path back in 1990. I mean, they did it between UK-France and Germany after 1945, it was only logical that they would do the same with Russia - I mean, there's less bad blood between them, overall. Of course, countries like Poland wouldn't be as enthusiastic, for obvious reasons, so it would've been better to come to a common understanding before the former Soviet bloc joined EU, and definitely way better to set up some spheres of influence before the Ukraine mess.

Jackrabbit: Pat Lang can be quite the old thin-skinned "Commies - bad" curmudgeon, which is at best frustrating. On the other hand, I always have a kick at seeing him campaigning for the dissolution of CIA and FBI, like in his latest post. I get that he's also arguing from an efficiency point of view, and I'd agree with him about the efficiency gains, even if I'd be more interested by the mere fact that US agencies would greatly reduced their fucking-up with the rest of the world, if these agencies were gone for good. Heck, I could live with a USA with more efficient agencies this way, since it would still mean them having to get rid of their Full Spectrum Dominance and Global Hegemon wet-dream, and instead focusing on fighting against clear and present danger and genuine threats against the US as a country, not as a global economic and political empire. Heck, I'd be already relieved if not glad if the US went back to Monroe doctrine and were to submit to a reverse-Monroe (as in the US stops messing with the Old World once and for all and doesn't interfer with any country outside the Americas).

dh , Nov 3 2019 17:06 utc | 18
@14 US farmers appreciate the $28bn aid package and most of them probably still like Trump. Aid like that would be called socialism if any other country did it.
Jackrabbit , Nov 3 2019 17:08 utc | 19
Peter AU 1

It struck me how careful she was about not being viewed as supporting Assad ... while the elevation of Max B. to be the equal of Assange is just an unimportant detail?

MANY journalists that have suffered much worse than Max B. They don't get elevated to being the equal of Assange. A few of them:

There's the woman who reported about ISIS (I think she was Turkish) who was killed.

There's Hitchens.

There's the woman who just reported on the paper trail of weapons purchased for the Syrian "rebels". She's from Bulgeria, I think.

There's Khashoggi.


Assange's struggle is for ALL journalists. It's offensive when used to elevate ONE journalist. Especially, I might add, THIS journalist who 1) has a deep and abiding connection to Assange's Deep State adversaries and 2) has previously demonstrated his willingness to act in a way that furthers Deep State goals.

!!

Sasha , Nov 3 2019 17:11 utc | 20
@Posted by: Jackrabbit | Nov 3 2019 15:54 utc | 9

Regarding that post by Pat Lang so derogatory in image illustrating, and following mockery he made of pensioners who receive their well deserved pension check, I wonder what this man who during life long benefitted from such a socialist system like the USAF to enjoy a labour life fixed job , from recruiting to retirement ( whose only requirement was fullfill orders...) and limitless access to free of charge education, which allowed him once retired at such privileged ( with respect the rest of working masses ) young age, be able to profit in the private sector from the knowledge and experience he gained in the public duty, has against public pensions, being himself beneficciary of one ( at least I have not notice he has refused it...and I fear it is not meager...) along with a free of charge full coverage social health system financed by Us taxpayers including those who he makes mockery of.

For the few I know him, he is still angry about the few taxes he has to pay under Trump rule feeling that some of what he pays could go to this pensioners....Of course, like every selfish far-right wing in the military, forgetting that it was those pensioners through their taxes who payed for their education and salary while in the military.

The more I know the man, I have nowhere to catch him from, and it is not only hiss patent arrogance and bigotry, nad hatred for everything which could sound social, it is the absolute lack of solidarity with other human beings ( including those who contributed to what he is...) except those who form his own close circle, unit, or his own, recently reached, upper class.

To me it smells of a new rich all that way from Virginia to here...Un asco!

Honestly, I can not see that astounding value some here find in his site, unless the astounding value to extend the Trump presidency for 4 years more...
Has he pronounced himself about the already recognized stealing of Syrian oil recently? No, there they are he and that Larry Johnson focussed in what more matters ( for them...) the shenanigans on fake theater ( and they both know it, because of insiders of the IC..)of the bipartisan mafiosi system which they beneffit from.

Peter AU1 , Nov 3 2019 17:13 utc | 21
Bhadrakumar "The amazing part has been the dogged resistance by Germany to the US pressure tactic to abandon Nord Stream 2."

Think Deutsche Bank, Volkswagen plus the rest of the crap US has been pulling to keep Germany down.
German business had to rebel against this at some point.

Trailer Trash , Nov 3 2019 17:13 utc | 22
working collaboratively with farmers and ranchers in the United States to remove pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector as much as is techno- logically feasible ..

Someone needs to get out of their ivory tower once in a while. No diesel, no food. It's as simple as that, unless farmers return to the days of huge crowds of cheap migrant workers and millions of horses to pull small-scale equipment. I don't see many windmill and solar promoters signing up to hoe cotton by hand. I wonder if all those horses would be allowed because of horse farts. Maybe someone can invent a horse and cow fart collector.

Some of the first farm tractors were huge steam powered beasts. If steam tractors burned wood pellets, would that be acceptable?. How big a battery it would take to operate a 300 Hp tractor for 12 or more hours per day - as big as a house?

Well the good news is there is no actual evidence the sky is falling (Correlation is not Causation). Man-made global warming is like "democracy" and "freedom". If any of these actually existed, would the propaganda machines have to tell us a hundred times a day, every day? In the end, reality has a tendency to shred fanciful plans and it doesn't care what anybody believes.

psychohistorian , Nov 3 2019 17:50 utc | 23
@ Hoarsewhisperer who wrote at the end of the last Open Thread
"
I can't shake off the suspicion that cosmology is more about beating around the bush and obfuscation than about fact-finding - especially the more recent Dark Matter trope...
"

I have only had one college course in Astronomy but I found a sure fire way to stop the cosmologists in their tracks is to posit that Dark Energy and Dark Matter are not just "out there" but just as much part of us as well...and where are the studies about that stuff in us?

pretzelattack , Nov 3 2019 17:54 utc | 24
another climate change denier troll? the science isn't based on a "propaganda machine". you know what is? the fossil fuel company funded propaganda campaign that pretends the science is based on correlation.
Schmoe , Nov 3 2019 18:05 utc | 25
dh @18

" US farmers appreciate the $28bn aid package and most of them probably still like Trump. Aid like that would be called socialism if any other country did it."
- And aid like that would be called socialism by farmers if it went to people with dark complexions who live in large cities.

Sasha , Nov 3 2019 18:05 utc | 26
@Posted by: Trailer Trash | Nov 3 2019 17:13 utc | 22

Not to mention that all the allegedly "ecologic" measures which have been promoted so far result equally if not more polluting than the existing ones. As a sample, this article about the pollution which will come from solar pannels and electric cars batteries and their costs of production and elimination who will push the carbon footpirnt to stratospheric levels.

REALLY want to help Mother Nature? Don't drive electric cars, ignore paper bags & forget about organic food

The new "ecocapitalism" is a new form of oblying the working masses to change car more often that they will be able to aforrd due the frozen wages and increasing of prices, and pay more for basic goods like electricity and water, plus adding taxes that will be difficult to justify in a coming environment of recession and economic crisis. This is only the new niche of gainings some "smart" people of always have found to continue increasing their tax of profit.

Economist: Greta Thunberg's 'dream world' could cause "a human tragedy

erik , Nov 3 2019 18:05 utc | 27
@pretzelattack
So, if one asks questions : 1) Is the climate actually changing (warming), rather than going through a temporary cycle as in the thirties?
2) If there is a climate change is it totally due to human activities, or only partially, or is it due to natural factors?
3) If the climate changes, ie warms by a degree or two centigrade, is that change a catastrophic event or is it benign and requiring
minor adaptations by humans?
Does that make one a troll in your estimation?
Donnie , Nov 3 2019 18:34 utc | 28
Likklemore @16

Joe "I am a Zionist" Biden has never made any bones about who and what he is. And all of his adult children are married into the Tribe.

bevin , Nov 3 2019 18:37 utc | 29
These remarks about climate change are a reminder that, as a society, we have lost our ability to reason together. The discussion is poisoned, largely, by vested interests-including the fossil fuel industry- using enormous amounts of money to prevent us from reaching conclusions based upon the objective measurement of empirical data and taking action accordingly.
Instead of reason "the market" rules: the market buys scientists and publicists, controls presses and dominates the media. In Congress or Parliament it owns majorities.
My guess is that climate change is real and represents a real threat but that ought not to be a licence for every demagogue and chancer to impose 'solutions' through government or public pressure. The future of humanity is too important a subject to be left to liars and narcissists to play with; it is a matter for serious, considered, unpolluted discussion at every level. In such discussion idiots will be revealed as such, loudmouths discovered to be empty and irresponsible and the weight of truth, revealed in masses of observations testable and available for examination, will lead to popular decision making on a matter too important to be left to others.
Jackrabbit , Nov 3 2019 18:43 utc | 30
In this report, we get some actual reporting:
Journalist Max Blumenthal Arrested, Hit With Political Prosecution Related To Venezuela Reporting

Unlike Greyzone reporting, here we are given specific information about Max's arrest, including the identify the person who made the charge, the statement that they made, and the alleged existence of video evidence.

<> <> <> <> <> <> <>

And now thegreyzone.com is out with a follow-up to their reporting last week. Aaron Maté interviews Max B.

Here we get more reason to be skeptical as Max B. declares that it's an "obvious case of political persecution" then evades the question of whether he was a reporter or activist when the incident occurred !!!

Max B.: It's highly unusual, the whole thing is highly unusual, it's an obvious case of political persecution and it should be a source of outrage but of course we've heard nothing from the press ngo's. I guess Press Freedom Track, I just saw them say that uh, I wasn't involved in reporting at the time so I was .. um .. so I don't count; they said something like that on twitter in a response to Margret Kimberly. So it's revealing to see the response but it's also encouraging to see the really organic grassroots solidarity that I'm getting.

Aaron Mate: Well, you were involved in reporting at the time, broadly, 'cause you were covering that protest; at the time, specifically, of the incident, you were around when some food was being delivered inside, right?

Max B.: Well, all I can say is that I'm completely innocent, the charges are fake, they're phony ...

The shadowproof reporting and this dodge from Max B. suggests to me that Max B. had decided to help outside activists to deliver food to the activists inside. Thus, he had joined the activists and was no longer acting as a reporter !

And Max B. admits that he was treated like all other prisoners :

Max B.: The second component [the first being the arrest] of how I was treated - that's how poor people in Washington D.C and across America are typically treated in the criminal justice system. People were ALL denied phone calls, they were shackled for long periods. We were held in cages in extremely cold temperatures for long periods ...

Persecution? Nah, just another day in the US criminal justice system.

Even if the charges against him are false, it's not clear that this is really a matter of press freedom.

!!

flankerbandit , Nov 3 2019 18:43 utc | 31
Peter...re the reason for US troops staying Syria...

I think the Al Tanf presence is for Israel's benefit...

But in northeast Syria I think another dynamic is at play...I think Trump really wanted to get out completely and I think he still does...but he simply has not had the power to pull this off...

The entire 'foreign policy' establishment plus their media servants went totally berserk and Trump had to walk back at least some of his plan...

I don't think Syria's oil has much to do with it...Trump simply latched onto that [quick improvisation there] to justify his reversal to his own base that is feeling frustrated that their hero can't even fulfill one of his major promises...

As for the establishment's idea for Syria, I think it has more to do with the Kurds...they are howling about 'betraying' the Kurds...but really it is about USING the Kurds for their own dream of partitioning Syria...

They just can't let go of that...even as the taillights get dimmer and dimmer in the distance...these people are not big on reality...

Plus, they do see a situation with the Kurds that they can exploit...some among the Kurds, like their military commander Mazloum Abdi are totally devoted to the US and will play a willing spoiler role in the northeast if given half a chance...

If this opportunity to continue at some level with the Kurds was not there, the US military command would not go along with a harebrained scheme like staying in a region of Syria that is now more or less controlled by the Syrian government...the shrunken US footprint means you are isolated and really quite meaningless...

So the situation is still in flux...but here's the thing...the Kurdish political leadership is a little smarter than people like Mazloum...they see that they have already lost huge swaths of their heartland to Turkey...not just in the latest incursion, but also Afrin before that and Euphrates Shield etc...

They realize they will lose everything if they do not start playing ball...with Russia especially, the only honest broker in Syria...

So today we have a report that a joint SDF-Russian 'coordination and operations center' has been established in northern Raqqa province...

Notably, the SAA isn't included in this...probably at the insistence of the SDF, which like I said is still not on board with reconciling with the SAA...although we note that in the periphery of the Turkish 'Peace Spring' incursion zone the SDF fighters are fighting alongside the SAA to repel Turkish-backed militants...

SAA has now also moved heavy weapons to the vicinity of the Ras al Ayn border town which is in Turkish hands...

So the dynamics of the fighting are already forcing the SDF to throw in their lot with the SAA...at some point the break will come and the shrinking US influence in the area is not going to be worth anything tangible to the SDF fighters...

We see also that the US has now evacuated its biggest base with the longest airfield... Sarrin...

That's where that huge convoy of empty trucks headed to...

So the situation on the ground does not bode well for some kind of continuing partnership between the SDF and the remaining US forces...especially as the SAA consolidates its control over the areas in which it has already entered...

So the way I see it, this is a desperate Hail Mary from the die-harders in the regime-change business...they are grasping at straws, literally...the US footprint has already shrunk so dramatically, and the SAA footprint taken its place that there is no going back...

For now the US still have some support among the SDF fighters, as exemplified by that Mazloum character...but as things progress neither the Kurd population in general, nor the Arabs in the area are going to continue partnering with the US...for the simple reason that the US has nothing to offer them...

And as soon as the SDF fighters make that final break from the US...then it's game over...it is really inevitable...the die is already cast...

BM , Nov 3 2019 18:49 utc | 32
That the WaPo scribe lets it stand without pointing out that, constitutionally, the president sets foreign policies is even worse. An earlier NYT piece about an NSC staffer who Trump likes and had asked about the Ukraine had a similar bad construct

As Rumsfeld once claimed, "We create our own reality". However there is nothing real about that so-called reality. More accurate would be "We create our own fantasy, are deluded by it, and cling desperately to our belief in the reality of it".

james , Nov 3 2019 18:54 utc | 33
@31 flankerbandit.. good overview.. i tend to see it in a similar manner.. thanks!

i got a kick out of one of the commenters on that southfront link -

"Latest News: Even though Vladimir Putin has promised to withdraw all Russian troops from the US, Russian forces still does not want to leave the US completely, arguing that it wants to secure oil fields in Texas from ISIS supported by Canada and Mexico, while helping Indians and Indian Democratic Forces (IDF) who did not want to rejoin the US government and refused an offer to dissolve the IDF and join the US army. Although initially Russian troops stopped their support for the IDF.
Wait, there seems to be something wrong with this news! :)"

BM , Nov 3 2019 19:09 utc | 34
These remarks about climate change are a reminder that, as a society, we have lost our ability to reason together. The discussion is poisoned, largely, by vested interests-including the fossil fuel industry- using enormous amounts of money to prevent us from reaching conclusions based upon the objective measurement of empirical data and taking action accordingly.
Posted by: bevin | Nov 3 2019 18:37 utc | 29

Thanks for your well articulated remarks, Bevin. Climate-change science is not something that can be researched by every Tom Dick and Harry in their kitchen, but, well, some people still think they can. As a very wise person once remarked: The fool who thinks he is wise is a fool indeed; but the fool who knows he is a fool, to that extent at least is wise.


Posted by: flankerbandit | Nov 3 2019 18:43 utc | 31

I agree with you 100% on Trump and Syrian oil. It is smoke and mirrors forced by the resistance of the Elites. I think Trump knows - and accepts - that grabbing to oil is not viable and that the US will be forced eventually to relinquish it, but it would be domestically too difficult to do so at the moment.

james , Nov 3 2019 19:35 utc | 35
@29 bevin... thanks also.. that was well articulated and i agree with your overview...
james , Nov 3 2019 19:40 utc | 36
just in... i wonder what the upshot of this will be?

US military convoy comes under fire of Turkey-backed militants in Syria, no casualties – Russian Defense Ministry

i wonder if they're turkish or usa arms that were given these goons? the usa is being attacked by weapons that gave to the friendly moderate headchoppers? the irony is rich if so...

john , Nov 3 2019 19:51 utc | 37
flankerbandit says:

And as soon as the SDF fighters make that final break from the US...then it's game over...it is really inevitable...the die is already cast...

yeah, perhaps. President Assad has an interesting perspective on occupation ...a much more profound and apparently longer view (from a recent interview )

Journalist: returning to politics, and to the United States, in particular, President Donald Trump announced his intention to keep a limited number of his troops in Syria while redeploying some of them on the Jordanian borders and on the borders of the Israeli enemy, while some of them will protect the oil fields. What is your position in this regard, and how will the Syrian state respond to this illegitimate presence

President Assad: Regardless of these statements, the reality is that the Americans are occupiers, whether they are in the east, the north or the south, the result is the same. Once again, we should not be concerned with his statements, but rather deal with the reality. When we are finished with the areas according to our military priorities and we reach an area in which the Americans are present, I am not going to indulge in heroics and say that we will send the army to face the Americans. We are talking about a super power. Do we have the capabilities to do that? I believe that this is clear for us as Syrians. Do we choose resistance? If there is resistance, the fate of the Americans will be similar to their fate in Iraq. But the concept of resistance needs a popular state of mind that is the opposite of being agents and proxies, a patriotic popular state which carries out acts of resistance. The natural role of the state in this case is to provide all the necessary conditions and necessary support to any popular resistance against the occupier. If we put to one side the colonial and commercial American mentality which promotes the colonization of certain areas for money, oil and other resources, we must not forget that the main agents which brought the Americans, the Turks and others to this region are Syrians acting as agents of foreigners – Syrian traitors. Dealing with all the other cases is just dealing with the symptoms, while we should be addressing the causes. We should be dealing with those Syrians and try to reformulate the patriotic state of the Syrian society – to restore patriotism, restore the unity of opinion and ensure that there are no Syrian traitors. To ensure that all Syrians are patriots, and that treason is no longer a matter of opinion, a mere difference over a political issue. We should all be united against occupation. When we reach this state, I assure you that the Americans will leave on their own accord because they will have no opportunity to remain in Syria; although America is a superpower, it will not be able to remain in Syria. This is something we saw in Lebanon at a certain point and in Iraq at a later stage. I think this is the right solution

Trailer Trash , Nov 3 2019 19:55 utc | 38
>Does that make one a troll in your estimation?
> Posted by: erik | Nov 3 2019 18:05 utc | 27

As in any religion, questions are not allowed. The constant shouting about oil company anti-"The Sky Is Falling" campaigns is particularly silly. I have never seen a single ad or even a spokesman on TV or radio saying man-made global warming isn't real. Not this year. Not last year. Not ever. Global warming promoters have a giant podium and use it all day every day to shout that they have no voice and drown out everyone else. It's not a good look.

I am no fan of oil companies. I very much resent that people who happen to live on top of the oil are exposed to sometimes awful conditions. There's no need to make a mess, and not cleaning up after oneself, harming people in the process, is unforgivable. That's something oil company managers should have learned in kindergarten.

Currently there is no way to replace petroleum in many applications. People burning whale oil lamps while watching whale populations decline knew they needed a better way, but would have had no way to predict that better way would be petroleum. Funding basic research might find a better way. Building more useless low-density intermittent windmills won't move anybody off petroleum, except in a few unique situations.

William Gruff , Nov 3 2019 20:13 utc | 39
I think Trump has been being loud and blunt about America taking Syria's oil precisely because he knows that it is neither legal nor viable. If he can establish the narrative that all it is now about is oil then the US will be forced to do as Trump has wanted all along and leave Syria.

Reverse psychology.

The role the American President is supposed to be playing for the empire right now is pushing the narrative of a need for more humanitarian murder and downplaying/dismissing any suggestion that the US is in Syria for any reason other than pure altruism. Trump outright stating that the US is going to take the oil is utterly destroying the only narratives that the US can use to stay in Syria.

That is much more clever than I had ever given Trump credit for being.

Trailer Trash , Nov 3 2019 20:16 utc | 40
>the weight of truth, revealed in masses of observations
> testable and available for examination, will lead to popular
> decision making on a matter too important to be left to others.
> Posted by: bevin | Nov 3 2019 18:37 utc | 29

Yes, actual observations, please, instead of models that don't work. The paleo record seems to show that temperatures rise before CO2 increases. The modern record shows no correlation, as in the recent multiyear "pause" in warming while CO2 was steady increasing.

Claims that global warming causes every kind of unpleasant weather are silly. Too hot, too cold, too wet, too dry, more snow, less snow, it's all caused by an increase in a trace molecule. If the weather is unpleasant, it's "carbon". If the weather is good, there's no comment. That's not very scientific.

ptb , Nov 3 2019 20:18 utc | 41
regarding "securing syrian oil" - I'd say it was always more about blocking a possible Iraq-Syria pipeline, which would give Iraq and potentially Iran a route to the Mediterranean without either Saudi Arabia or Turkey or perhaps a Kurdistan being in the way.
Peter AU1 , Nov 3 2019 20:33 utc | 42
flankerbandit
I have tossed this around myself when thinking about what is happening.
"I don't think Syria's oil has much to do with it...Trump simply latched onto that [quick improvisation there] to justify his reversal to his own base that is feeling frustrated that their hero can't even fulfill one of his major promises..."

Ending endless wars, expensive wars, bring the troops home, vs extra US military spending, vetoing the congress resolution to pull out of the Yemen war, then there is the US deep state aspect. And then Trumps past statements on the countries US has attacked.
Easy enough to pass off as as a person no deeper than his twitter persona for the seeming inconsistencies.
Trump is overturning the norms or what developed as norms in the post WWII era. One of those norms is that the US must try to give an appearance of moral leadership of the world. Thinking outside the box of the post WWII era, a strategy can be seen in what Trump is doing.

When it comes to foreign policy, Trumps focus is on oil and Israel. China ties in with the focus on oil. Russia may well block what I believe to be Trump's strategy in the middle east and if they do, I may never know for sure if I am right or wrong about the Trump admins intentions.
But at the moment, I have to take it that Trump's moves are based around 'energy dominance' and that includes owning other countries oil.

karlof1 , Nov 3 2019 20:33 utc | 43
bevin @29--

What you posit echoes what Climatologist Michael Mann wrote in Climate Wars .

In Assad's recent interview, on the Outlaw US Empire's illegal occupation and theft of Syrian property, he's willing to be patient and take care of those areas Syria and its allies can return to the national fold. Russia, Iran and Assad are all on the same page and of the same mind when it comes to dealing with the illegal occupation, which they know is untenable in the long run. In fact, it actually serves an excellent purpose in providing the impetus for nations to dedollarize and beware of accepting any sort of aid it offers--this is particularly important in Africa and Latin America. Monthly like clockwork, Lavrov or another top Russian official calls for the Outlaw US Empire to remove its illegally deployed troops, which reminds the world of what the Outlaw US Empire is and its aims being opposite of its rhetoric--Truth is far more potent than propaganda.

[Nov 03, 2019] How Controlling Syria s Oil Serves Washington s Strategic Objectives by Nauman Sadiq

Highly recommended!
Notable quotes:
"... Washington's basic purpose in deploying the US forces in oil and natural gas fields of Deir al-Zor governorate is to deny the valuable source of income to its other main rival in the region, Damascus. ..."
Nov 02, 2019 | www.zerohedge.com

Authored by Nauman Sadiq,

Before the evacuation of 1,000 American troops from northern Syria to western Iraq, the Pentagon had 2,000 US forces in Syria. After the drawdown of US troops at Erdogan's insistence in order for Ankara to mount a ground offensive in northern Syria, the US has still deployed 1,000 troops, mainly in oil-rich eastern Deir al-Zor province and at al-Tanf military base.

Al-Tanf military base is strategically located in southeastern Syria on the border between Syria, Iraq and Jordan, and it straddles on a critically important Damascus-Baghdad highway, which serves as a lifeline for Damascus. Washington has illegally occupied 55-kilometer area around al-Tanf since 2016, and several hundred US Marines have trained several Syrian militant groups there.

It's worth noting that rather than fighting the Islamic State, the purpose of continued presence of the US forces at al-Tanf military base is to address Israel's concerns regarding the expansion of Iran's influence in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.

Regarding the oil- and natural gas-rich Deir al-Zor governorate, it's worth pointing out that Syria used to produce modest quantities of oil for domestic needs before the war – roughly 400,000 barrels per day, which isn't much compared to tens of millions barrels daily oil production in the Gulf states.

Although Donald Trump crowed in a characteristic blunt manner in a tweet after the withdrawal of 1,000 American troops from northern Syria that Washington had deployed forces in eastern Syria where there was oil, the purpose of exercising control over Syria's oil is neither to smuggle oil out of Syria nor to deny the valuable source of revenue to the Islamic State.

There is no denying the fact that the remnants of the Islamic State militants are still found in Syria and Iraq but its emirate has been completely dismantled in the region and its leadership is on the run. So much so that the fugitive caliph of the terrorist organization was killed in the bastion of a rival jihadist outfit, al-Nusra Front in Idlib, hundreds of kilometers away from the Islamic State strongholds in eastern Syria.

Much like the "scorched earth" battle strategy of medieval warlords – as in the case of the Islamic State which early in the year burned crops of local farmers while retreating from its former strongholds in eastern Syria – Washington's basic purpose in deploying the US forces in oil and natural gas fields of Deir al-Zor governorate is to deny the valuable source of income to its other main rival in the region, Damascus.

After the devastation caused by eight years of proxy war, the Syrian government is in dire need of tens of billions dollars international assistance to rebuild the country. Not only is Washington hampering efforts to provide international aid to the hapless country, it is in fact squatting over Syria's own resources with the help of its only ally in the region, the Kurds.

Although Donald Trump claimed credit for expropriating Syria's oil wealth, it bears mentioning that "scorched earth" policy is not a business strategy, it is the institutional logic of the deep state. President Trump is known to be a businessman and at least ostensibly follows a non-interventionist ideology; being a novice in the craft of international diplomacy, however, he has time and again been misled by the Pentagon and Washington's national security establishment.

Regarding Washington's interest in propping up the Gulf's autocrats and fighting their wars in regional conflicts, it bears mentioning that in April 2016, the Saudi foreign minister threatened that the Saudi kingdom would sell up to $750 billion in treasury securities and other assets if the US Congress passed a bill that would allow Americans to sue the Saudi government in the United States courts for its role in the September 11, 2001 terror attack – though the bill was eventually passed, Saudi authorities have not been held accountable; even though 15 out of 19 9/11 hijackers were Saudi nationals.

Moreover, $750 billion is only the Saudi investment in the United States, if we add its investment in Western Europe and the investments of UAE, Kuwait and Qatar in the Western economies, the sum total would amount to trillions of dollars of Gulf's investments in North America and Western Europe.

Furthermore, in order to bring home the significance of the Persian Gulf's oil in the energy-starved industrialized world, here are a few stats from the OPEC data: Saudi Arabia has the world's largest proven crude oil reserves of 265 billion barrels and its daily oil production exceeds 10 million barrels; Iran and Iraq, each, has 150 billion barrels reserves and has the capacity to produce 5 million barrels per day, each; while UAE and Kuwait, each, has 100 billion barrels reserves and produces 3 million barrels per day, each; thus, all the littoral states of the Persian Gulf, together, hold 788 billion barrels, more than half of world's 1477 billion barrels of proven oil reserves.

No wonder then, 36,000 United States troops have currently been deployed in their numerous military bases and aircraft carriers in the oil-rich Persian Gulf in accordance with the Carter Doctrine of 1980, which states: "Let our position be absolutely clear: an attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force."

Additionally, regarding the Western defense production industry's sales of arms to the Gulf Arab States, a report authored by William Hartung of the US-based Center for International Policy found that the Obama administration had offered Saudi Arabia more than $115 billion in weapons, military equipment and training during its eight-year tenure.

Similarly, the top items in Trump's agenda for his maiden visit to Saudi Arabia in May 2017 were: firstly, he threw his weight behind the idea of the Saudi-led "Arab NATO" to counter Iran's influence in the region; and secondly, he announced an unprecedented arms package for Saudi Arabia. The package included between $98 billion and $128 billion in arms sales.

Therefore, keeping the economic dependence of the Western countries on the Gulf Arab States in mind, during the times of global recession when most of manufacturing has been outsourced to China, it is not surprising that when the late King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia decided to provide training and arms to the Islamic jihadists in the border regions of Turkey and Jordan against the government of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, the Obama administration was left with no other choice but to toe the destructive policy of its regional Middle Eastern allies, despite the sectarian nature of the proxy war and its attendant consequences of breeding a new generation of Islamic jihadists who would become a long-term security risk not only to the Middle East but to the Western countries, as well.

Similarly, when King Abdullah's successor King Salman decided, on the whim of the Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, to invade Yemen in March 2015, once again the Obama administration had to yield to the dictates of Saudi Arabia and UAE by fully coordinating the Gulf-led military campaign in Yemen not only by providing intelligence, planning and logistical support but also by selling billions of dollars' worth of arms and ammunition to the Gulf Arab States during the conflict.

In this reciprocal relationship, the US provides security to the ruling families of the Gulf Arab states by providing weapons and troops; and in return, the Gulf's petro-sheikhs contribute substantial investments to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars to the Western economies.

Regarding the Pax Americana which is the reality of the contemporary neocolonial order, according to a January 2017 infographic by the New York Times, 210,000 US military personnel were stationed all over the world, including 79,000 in Europe, 45,000 in Japan, 28,500 in South Korea and 36,000 in the Middle East.

Although Donald Trump keeps complaining that NATO must share the cost of deployment of US troops, particularly in Europe where 47,000 American troops are stationed in Germany since the end of the Second World War, 15,000 in Italy and 8,000 in the United Kingdom, fact of the matter is that the cost is already shared between Washington and host countries.

Roughly, European countries pay one-third of the cost for maintaining US military bases in Europe whereas Washington chips in the remaining two-third. In the Far Eastern countries, 75% of the cost for the deployment of American troops is shared by Japan and the remaining 25% by Washington, and in South Korea, 40% cost is shared by the host country and the US contributes the remaining 60%.

Whereas the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC) – Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Qatar – pay two-third of the cost for maintaining 36,000 US troops in the Persian Gulf where more than half of world's proven oil reserves are located and Washington contributes the remaining one-third.

* * *

Nauman Sadiq is an Islamabad-based attorney, columnist and geopolitical analyst focused on the politics of Af-Pak and Middle East regions, neocolonialism and petro-imperialism.


ipsprez , 8 minutes ago link

I am always amazed (and amused) at how much smarter "journalists" are than POTUS. If ONLY Mr. Trump would read more and listen to those who OBVIOUSLY are sooo much smarter!!!! Maybe then he wouldn't be cowed and bullied by Erdogan, Xi, Jung-on, Trudeau (OK so maybe that one was too far fetched) to name a few. Please note the sarcasm. Do I really need to go in to the success after success Mr. Trump's foreign policy has enjoyed? Come on Man.

OLD-Pipe , 19 minutes ago link

What a load of BOLOCKS...The ONLY, I mean The Real and True Reason for American Armored presence is one thing,,,,,,,Ready for IT ? ? ? To Steal as much OIL as Possible, AND convert the Booty into Currency, Diamonds or some other intrinsically valuable commodity, Millions of Dollars at a Time......17 Years of Shadows and Ghost Trucks and Tankers Loading and Off-Loading the Black Gold...this is what its all about......M-O-N-E-Y....... Say It With Me.... Mon-nee, Money Money Mo_on_ne_e_ey, ......

Blue Steel 309 , 5 minutes ago link

This is about Israel, not oil.

ombon , 58 minutes ago link

From the sale of US oil in Syria receive 30 million. dollars per month. Image losses are immeasurably greater. The United States put the United States as a robbery bandit. This is American democracy. The longer the troops are in Syria, the more countries will switch to settlements in national currencies.

Pandelis , 28 minutes ago link

yeah well these are mafia guys...

uhland62 , 50 minutes ago link

"Our interests", "strategic interests" is always about money, just a euphemism so it doesn't look as greedy as it is. Another euphemism is "security' ,meaning war preparations.

BobEore , 1 hour ago link

...The military power of the USA put directly in the service of "the original TM" PIRATE STATE. U are the man Norm! But wait... now things get a little hazy... in the classic... 'alt0media fake storyline' fashion!

"President Trump is known to be a businessman and at least ostensibly follows a non-interventionist ideology; being a novice in the craft of international diplomacy, however, he has time and again been misled by the Pentagon and Washington's national security establishment."

Awww! Poor "DUmb as Rocks Donnie" done been fooled agin!

...In the USA... the military men are stirring at last... having been made all too aware that their putative 'boss' has been operating on behalf of foreign powers ever since being [s]elected, that the State Dept of the once Great Republic has been in active cahoots with the jihadis ...

and that those who were sent over there to fight against the headchoppers discovered that the only straight shooters in the whole mess turned out to be the Kurds who AGENT FRIMpf THREW UNDER THE BUS ON INSTRUCTIONS FROM JIHADI HQ!

... ... ...

[Nov 02, 2019] Assad Calls Trump Best US President Ever For Transparency Of Real US Motives

Nov 02, 2019 | www.zerohedge.com

Arguably some of the most significant events since the eight-year long war's start have played out in Syria with rapid pace over just the last month alone, including Turkey's military incursion in the north, the US pullback from the border and into Syria's oil fields, the Kurdish-led SDF&# deal making with Damascus, and the death of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. All of this is why a televised interview with Presiden39;st Bashar Assad was highly anticipated at the end of this week.

Assad's commentary on the latest White House policy to "secure the oil" in Syria, for which US troops have already been redeployed to some of the largest oil fields in the Deir Ezzor region, was the biggest pressing question. The Syrian president's response was unexpected and is now driving headlines, given what he said directly about Trump, calling him the "best American president" ever – because he's the "most transparent."

"When it comes to Trump you may ask me a question and I'll give you an answer which might seem strange. I tell you he's the best American president," Assad said, according to a translation provided by NBC.

"Why? Not because his policies are good, but because he is the most transparent president," Assad continued.

"All American presidents commit crimes and end up taking the Nobel Prize and appear as a defender of human rights and the 'unique' and 'brilliant' American or Western principles. But all they are is a group of criminals who only represent the interests of the American lobbies of large corporations in weapons, oil and others," he added.

"Trump speaks with the transparency to say 'We want the oil'." Assad's unique approach to an 'enemy' head of state which has just ordered the seizure of Syrian national resources also comes after in prior years the US president called Assad "our enemy" and an "animal."

Trump tweeted in April 2018 after a new chemical attack allegation had surfaced: "If President Obama had crossed his stated Red Line In The Sand, the Syrian disaster would have ended long ago! Animal Assad would have been history!"

A number of mainstream outlets commenting on Assad's interview falsely presented it as "praise" of Trump or that Assad thinks "highly" of him; however, it appears the Syrian leader was merely presenting Trump's policy statements from a 'realist' perspective , contrasting them from the misleading 'humanitarian' motives typical of Washington's rhetoric about itself.

That is, Damascus sees US actions in the Middle East as motivated fundamentally by naked imperial ambition, a constant prior theme of Assad's speeches , across administrations, whether US leadership dresses it up as 'democracy promotion' or in humanitarian terms characteristic of liberal interventionism. As Assad described, Trump seems to skip dressing up his rhetoric in moralistic idealism altogether, content to just unapologetically admit the ugly reality of US foreign policy.


indaknow , 4 minutes ago link

Most President's thought you had to plot coups. Regime changes, color revolutions. Long convoluted wars with many deaths and collateral damage.

Trump says **** that. We're just taking the oil. Brilliant

Chupacabra-322 , 18 minutes ago link

To fund their Black Ops to destabilize Sovereign Countries & rape, murder, pillage & steal their natural resources. And, install their Puppet leaders.

Wash, rinse & repeat.

ExPat2018 , 22 minutes ago link

I see Americans keep calling Assad and Putin a ''dictator'' Hey, jackasses, they were ELECTED in elections far less corrupt than what you have in the USSA

Guentzburgh , 54 minutes ago link

Transparently Assad is a moron, the oil belongs to the kurds snake.

beemasters , 52 minutes ago link

Not anymore... Russian Military Releases Satellite Images Confirming US Smuggling of Syrian Oil
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201910261077154752-russian-military-releases-satellite-images-confirming-us-smuggling-of-syrian-oil/

yerfej , 1 hour ago link

Securing oil from those you don't want to have it is different than "stealing" the oil. Face it the oil means nothing to any large western economy.

Dzerzhhinsky , 33 minutes ago link

Face it the oil means nothing to any large western economy.

The one thing all capitalists have in common is they all want more money, it's never enough.

You commies will never understand the deep in your gut need to take every penny from every child.

Fiscal Reality , 1 hour ago link

Pelosi, Schiff, Cankels, Schumer, The MSM all sriek in unison "TRUMP IS ASSAD'S PAWN. IMPEACH HIM!!!"

beemasters , 1 hour ago link

the "best American president" ever – because he's the "most transparent."

Very much so. When he says something, it's definitely the opposite that he would be doing. You can't get more transparent than that.

NorwegianPawn , 1 hour ago link

Assad is a very eloquent speaker. Witty, sharp and always calm when speaking with decadent press. Of course the MSM understood what he DID mean, but they cannot help themselves, but parse anything to try hurting Trump.

Just don't believe a word the media says.

Son of Captain Nemo , 1 hour ago link

Mr. Assad's got that pitch correctly...

As a matter of fact he used "real motives" when he should have used the words "maniacal" and "desperate"...

Case in point... https://southfront.org/western-europe-archdiocese-officially-reunited-with-russian-orthodox-church/

If true. It means the Vatican (the oldest most important money there is) like Saudi Arabia and the UAE sure do seem to care about stuff like purchasing power in their "portfolios" and a "store of value"?...

I see lots of EU participants taking their money to Moscow as well with that Arctic bonanza that says "come hither" if you want your money to be worth something!!!

To Hell In A Handbasket , 1 hour ago link

It's always been about oil. Spreading Freedumb, Dumbocracy and Western values, is PR spiel. The reality is, the West are scammers, plunderers and outright thieves. Forget the billions Shell Oil, is holding for the Biafran people/region in Nigeria, which it won't give to either the Bianfran states in the east, nor the Nigerian government, dating back to the secessionist state of Biafra/Nigerian civil war 1967-70. The west are nothing more than gang-bangers, but on the world stage.

If people think its just oil we steal, then you are mad. What the UK did in reneging on 1500 Chieftain tanks and armoured personnel vehicles, with Iran which they paid for up-front and fucked Iran over in the UK courts over interest payments over 40 years. Are stories that simply do not make the news.

Yet the department for trade and industry is scratching its head, wondering why their are so few takers for a post-Brexit trade deal with the UK, where the honest UK courts have the final say? lol

truthseeker47 , 1 hour ago link

Too bad it is political suicide for an American president to try to establish communication with Assad. He seems like a pretty practical guy and who knows, it might be possible to work out a peaceful settlement with him.

TheLastMan , 1 hour ago link

economic warfare on the syrian civlian population through illegal confiscation of vital civilian economic assets, and as conducted in venezeula, is called ________________

Meximus , 1 hour ago link

That is not a compliment for Trompas .

Assad is saying where before the UKK was a masked thief, with Trompas and his egotism alias exceptionalism, has not bothered withthe mask. He is still a murderer and thief.

Obi-jonKenobi , 2 hours ago link

Now Assad has some idea why Trump is so popular with his base, they love him for not being politically correct, for "telling it like it is". He's like the wolf looking at the sheep and telling them he's going to eat them and the sheep cheering because he's not being a wolf in sheep's clothing.

Unfortunately in the case of Trump's sheeple, they don't even have a clue they're going to be eaten, the Trumptards all think he's going to eat someone else like the "deep state" or the "dumbocrats". Meanwhile he's chewing away at their health care, their export markets, piling up record deficits, handing the tax gold to the rich and corporations while they get the shaft, taking away program after program that aided students, the poor, and the elderly, appointing lobbyists to dismantle or corrupt departments they used to lobby against, and in general destroying the international good will that it's taken decades to build.

It would be funny if it wasn't so sad.

[Oct 29, 2019] Russian Defense Minister Publishes Evidence Of US Oil Smuggling From Syria by Saker

Images removed...
Oct 29, 2019 | www.zerohedge.com

10/29/2019

Via The Saker blog,

Translated by Leo, bold and italics added for emphasis.

Source: https://ria.ru/20191026/1560247607.html

MOSCOW, October 26, 2019 – RIA Novosti – The Russian Ministry of Defense has published satellite intelligence images , showing American oil smuggling from Syria.

Image 1: Situation in the Syrian Arab Republic as of October 26, 2019.

According to the ministry, the photos confirm that "Syrian oil, both before and after the routing defeat of the Islamic State terrorists in land beyond the Euphrates river , under the reliable protection by US military servicemen, oil was actively being extracted and then the fuel trucks were massively being sent for processing outside of Syria."

Image 2: Daman oil gathering station, Syria, Deir ez-Zor province, 42 km east of Deir ez-Zor, August 23, 2019.

Here, in a picture of the Daman oil gathering station (42 kilometers east of the Deir-ez-Zor province), taken on August 23, a large amount of trucks were spotted. "There were 90 automotive vehicles, including 23 fuel trucks," the caption to the image said.

In addition, on September 5, there were 25 vehicles in the Al-Hasakah province, including 22 fuel trucks. Three days later, on September 8, in the vicinity of Der Ez-Zor, 36 more vehicles were recorded (32 of them were fuel trucks). On the same day, 41 vehicles, including 34 fuel trucks, were in the Mayadin onshore area.

Image 3: Gathering of vehicles in Syria, Al-Hasakah province, 8 km west of Al-Shaddadi, September 5, 2019.

As the official representative of the Defense Ministry Igor Konashenkov noted, the Americans are extracting oil in Syria with the help of equipment, bypassing their own sanctions.

Igor Konashenkov:

"Under the protection of American military servicemen and employees of American PMCs, fuel trucks from the oil fields of Eastern Syria are smuggling to other states. In the event of any attack on such a caravan, special operations forces and US military aircraft are immediately called in to protect it," he said.

According to Konashenkov, the US-controlled company Sadcab , established under the so-called Autonomous Administration of Eastern Syria , is engaged in the export of oil, and the income of smuggling goes to the personal accounts of US PMCs and special forces.

The Major General added that as of right now, a barrel of smuggled Syrian oil is valued at $38, therefore the monthly revenue of US governmental agencies exceeds $30 million.

Image 4: Gathering of vehicles in Syria, Deir ez-Zor province, 10 km east of Mayadin, September 8, 2019.

"For such a continuous financial flow, free from control and taxes of the American government, the leadership of the Pentagon and Langley will be ready to guard and defend oil fields in Syria from the mythical 'hidden IS cells' endlessly," he said.

According to Konashenkov, Washington, by holding oil fields in eastern Syria, is engaged in international state banditry.

Image 5: Gathering of vehicles in Syria, Deir ez-Zor province, 14 km east of Mayadin, September 8, 2019.

The reason for this activity, he believes, "lies far from the ideals of freedom proclaimed by Washington and their slogans on the fight against terrorism."

Igor Konashenkov:

"Neither in international law, nor in American legislation itself – there is not and cannot be a single legal task for the American troops to protect and defend the hydrocarbon deposits of Syria from Syria itself and its own people, " the representative of the Defense Ministry concluded.

A day earlier, the Pentagon's head, Mark Esper declared that the United States is studying the situation in the Deir ez-Zor region and intends to strengthen its positions there in the near future "to ensure the safety of oil fields."


Sirdirkfan , 5 minutes ago link

The Ruskies are mad - Trump is stopping them from taking the oil, it belongs to the Kurds for their revenue and if US wants to help them have it so what....US is staying to secure those oilfields against ISIS taking it again!

If everyone listened to the President when he talks there wouldn't be any spin that anyone could get away with.

Arising , 7 minutes ago link

Trump's The Art of the Steal - New chapter just added

Fish Gone Bad , 15 minutes ago link

War is used to take resources from people who can not protect it adequately.

punjabiraj , 15 minutes ago link

The oil is on Kurdish land. This part of Syria is just a small sector of Kurdish territory that has been stolen from them by dividing it between four "countries", each of which has oil. This is why the territory was stolen and why the Kurds have become the world's best fighters.

Putin brokered a deal to stop Turkey wiping the Kurds by having their fighting force assimilate with the Syrian military and required Russian observers access to ensure the Turks keep their word and not invade to wipe all the Kurd civilians in order to also take their Syrian oil.

So the corrupt US generals get caught in the act. Their senators and reps on the payroll are going to need some more of that fairy tale PR for POTUS to read to us at bedtime.

If we are to believe that this is to protect the oil fields then the oil revenue should be going to Syria, even though the Kurds are on the land. Follow the money to find the truth because there is no one you can trust on this stage.

Bernard_2011 , 15 minutes ago link

America is not stealing Syria's oil, they are "protecting it".

haruspicio , 22 minutes ago link

MSM are simply not covering this story. Or the other story about the supposed gas attack at Douma where evidence was adulterated and/or ignored completely under US pressure.

Expect the same from MH17.

WTF is going on with our leaders and corporate MSM....can no one in a leadership position distinguish between lies and the truth? Or fantasy and reality? Where are the 'journalists' who will stand up and tell the truth in MSM? They no longer exist.

Chain Man , 25 minutes ago link

18 wheel fuel trucks around here hold 10K gal. 50 truck loads 500K of un processed oil if it's true? I though they just got there. but no telling who might steal under those conditions.

Bernard_2011 , 25 minutes ago link

If the caliphate is 100% eliminated as Trump likes to say, then what does Trump need to "protect" the oil fields from?

It's like he's just parroting whatever BS the deep state is telling him to say.

NiggaPleeze , 24 minutes ago link

The Orange Satan is the Deep State. Or, a product of it.

Orange Satan is protecting the oil from Syrians. It rightly belongs to the Globalists, not the local peasants!

Roger Casement , 27 minutes ago link

That was August. this is now. The Russians must have really wanted that oil to finance their occupation. Trump is preventing ISIS from using the oil as their piggy bank.

You're welcome.

jjames , 26 minutes ago link

no, trump is trying to starve the syrian people.

OliverAnd , 25 minutes ago link

The irony of course is that from the same oil fields the Turks were doing the exact same in cooperation with ISIS and now the US is doing it alone.

NiggaPleeze , 23 minutes ago link

Russians really want Syria to have their own soil. But the Globalist Orange Satan is stealing it to finance his Globalist Evil Empire.

After all, nothing spells Globalism like a Global Empire.

OliverAnd , 29 minutes ago link

Wasn't Erdogan doing the same not too long ago? Shortly after Erdogan became close friends with Putin. Does this mean Trump and Putin will become close friends as well? Or is this simply a common practice between two people who undeservingly place relatives in government positions? First Turkey hands over Al Baghdadi (he received medical treatment in Southern Turkey in a private clinic owned by Erdogan's daughter guarded by MIT agents) so that they can continue to commit genocide against Kurds in Turkey and Syria... and now the US is stealing Syrian oil like how the Turks initially were doing. What a mess and a disappointment. Hopefully Erdogan visits DC and unleashes his security guards beating any person freely walking the streets while Trump smiles and describes him as a great leader.

Joe A , 29 minutes ago link

War is a racket.

Manipuflation , 31 minutes ago link

So be it Ed Harley. What you're asking for has a powerful price .

IronForge , 31 minutes ago link

Since when did PLUNDERING OTHER NATION-STATES become included in the Serviceman's Oath or the Officer's Oath of Office?

expatch , 32 minutes ago link

Watch in coming weeks as the tanker convoys are proven to be rogue operations from an out of control CIA / Cabal network. Trump removed the troops, and now Russia is shining a light on it.

KuriousKat , 27 minutes ago link

No coincidence another article on ZH brung attention to the Ukrainian wareehouse arsos..12 in 2 yrs..2017-2018 where stored munition were carted away...not to fight rebels n Donbass but sold to Islamic groups in Syria..it was one of Bidens pals..one keeps the wars going while the others steal siphon of resources..whatever isn't nailed down..I've never seen anything like this..Democrats are truly CRIME INC

KuriousKat , 34 minutes ago link

w/o that oil..Syria can never reconstruct itself..Usually in a War or ,after that is, the victors help rebuild..what we see is pillaging and salting the earth and walk away.. as the Romans did to enemies like Carthage..it will resemble Libya ...a shambles

sbin , 39 minutes ago link

Simple destroy every tanker truck not authorized by Syrian government.

Remember the giant line of ISIS trucks going to Turkey US couldn't find but Russia had no problem destroying.

Some "jahhadi" should use those TOW missles and MAN pads to deal with foreign invaders.

Demologos , 45 minutes ago link

So the smuggling is protected by air cover and special forces? Light up the fields using some scud missiles. I'm sure Iran or Iraq have a few they could lend Syria. Can't sell it if its burning.

Guderian , 51 minutes ago link

Brits and Americans have pillaged, as any other empire, wherever they conquered.

After WW1 the 'Allies' robbed Germany of all foreign currency and its entire gold. This triggering hyperinflation and mega crisis.

During WW2 central bank gold was pillaged from countries that were 'liberated' across Europe.

In more recent history, the gold of Iraq, Ukraine and Libya was flown to Fort Knox.

All well documented.

This is common practice by empires. Just please stop pretending you were the good guys , spreading freedom and democracy, because that's really a mockery and the disgusting part of your invasions.

Dzerzhhinsky , 33 minutes ago link

During WW2 central bank gold was pillaged from countries that were 'liberated'.

Exactly, that's where the US got its 8,000 tons of gold. Before WWII, the US had 2000 tons of gold, after WWII it had 8,000 tons. Even today the US always steals the gold of the countries it "liberates"

Minamoto , 1 hour ago link

The USA reduced to common thievery...! How pathetic can a country become?

San Pedro , 26 minutes ago link

...and don't forget the billions and billion and billons the oooobama gave Iran in the fake "Iran Nuke Deal"!!

punjabiraj , 56 minutes ago link

This is a breach of our official secrets laws. This is none of the American peoples business like everything else we do in the deep state.

Any more articles like this and you will all be sharing a cell in solitary like we do with the whistle blowers and their anti-satanic consciences.

All devil worshipers say Aye.

gvtlinux , 1 hour ago link

Help me understand why the USA would want to smuggle oil from Syria. When the USA has more oil than all of the middleast.

Now I can see why Russia would blame the USA if smuggling Oil from Syria. Russia needs that oil really bad. So to get the USA away from the Syrian oil fields they would of course create a reason for the rest of the world that the USA is Dishonerable and must not be trusted with Syrian oil. It is just too obvious to me, what Russia is trying to accomplish.

Demologos , 58 minutes ago link

Huh? The US is stealing the oil to deprive the Syrian people energy they need to rebuild the country we destroyed. This is collective punishment of Syrians because they won't overthrow Assad.

Collective punishment is a crime against humanity according to international law. There's your impeachable offense. But don't worry, that kind of crime is ok with Shifty Schiff and the rest of the Israel ***-kissers in Congress.

God above wins , 48 minutes ago link

Most people in the US still erroneously think our gov has good intentions. At least Trump showed us the real intention of staying in Syria.

Omen IV , 40 minutes ago link

The US is NOT stealing the oil - the American Military have become PIRATES - no different than Somali Red Sea Pirates or looters in Newark stealing diapers and TV's

they probably do it in Black Face !

what a miserable excuse for a country

nuerocaster , 18 minutes ago link

No taxes, regulations, royalties. The muscle is already on payroll.

KekistanisUnite , 1 hour ago link

This is nothing new. We've been stealing oil from dozens of countries for the past 75 years since WWII. The only difference is that Trump is being blatant about it which in a way is weirdly refreshing.

spoonful , 1 hour ago link

Like Janis Joplin once sang - Get it While You Can https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ju9yFA1S7K8

[Oct 15, 2019] Most obvious and least reported is 1800 more US soldiers and airmen are not in KSA to be tripwires/excuses if they are harmed.

Oct 15, 2019 | economistsview.typepad.com

ilsm , October 11, 2019 at 12:19 PM

... ... ...

"most prolific liar in the history of the US, "

are you talking Schiff, Pelosi, Schumer, Obama, Hillary, NYtimes, WashPost, any democrat?

Of course, Turkey should not invade a sovereign country which is the case the past few days with Syria.

Particularly a NATO member invading a country with treaties with Russia (who cares about Putin?).

Biggest lie this past week is Kurd NGOs [insurgency against Syria] are US "allies".

ilsm , October 11, 2019 at 06:05 PM
There is trouble underlying when the US military does something because of good partner relations rather than obvious contribution to a clearly defined strategy. See Vietnam and dominoes.

US is sending more "deterrent" equipment and military personnel [as targets also to improve ARAMCO IPO oil assets] into the kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

https://www.defensenews.com/news/your-military/2019/10/11/f-15s-air-defense-systems-and-thousands-of-us-troops-heading-to-saudi-arabia/

New SecDef says Saudi princes have been "good partners", especially as the ARAMCO IPO is coming on. If you and I protect the ARAMCO facilities in the kingdom the IPO may go based on $2T instead of $1.5T, as some investment bankers might suggest.

Two fighter squadrons (likely F-15's, F-35 too slow, F-16 too low cost), two more Patriot missile batteries, a THAAD warning and control system (the H in THAAD is high altitude, not so good on drones and cruise missiles), etc. And prince bone Saws may pay the freight to keep them in the kingdom.

Most obvious and least reported is 1800 more US soldiers and airmen to be tripwires/excuses if they are harmed.

Deterrent and escalation; terms that go together when the new SecDef speaks.

[Sep 18, 2019] Will Trump Take Neocon Bait and Attack Iran Over Saudi Strike by Ron Paul

Sep 17, 2019 | www.ronpaulinstitute.org

The recent attacks on Saudi oil facilities by Yemeni Houthi forces demonstrate once again that an aggressive foreign policy often brings unintended consequences and can result in blowback. In 2015 Saudi Arabia attacked its neighbor, Yemen, because a coup in that country ousted the Saudi-backed dictator. Four years later Yemen is in ruins, with nearly 100,000 Yemenis killed and millions more facing death by starvation. It has been rightly called the worst humanitarian catastrophe on the planet.

But rich and powerful Saudi Arabia did not defeat Yemen. In fact, the Saudis last month asked the Trump Administration to help facilitate talks with the Houthis in hopes that the war, which has cost Saudi Arabia tens of billions of dollars, could finally end without Saudi crown prince Mohammad bin Salman losing too much face. Washington admitted earlier this month that those talks had begun.

The surprise Houthi attack on Saturday disrupted half of Saudi Arabia's oil and gas production and shocked Washington. Predictably, however, the neocons are using the attack to call for war with Iran!

Sen. Lindsay Graham, one of the few people in Washington who makes John Bolton look like a dove, Tweeted yesterday that, "It is now time for the US to put on the table an attack on Iranian oil refineries " Graham is the perfect embodiment of the saying, "when all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail." No matter what the problem, for Graham the solution is war.

Likewise, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo – who is supposed to represent US diplomacy – jumped to blame Iran for the attack on Saudi Arabia, Tweeting that, "Iran has now launched an unprecedented attack on the world's energy supply." Of course, he provided no evidence even as the Houthis themselves took responsibility for the bombing.

What is remarkable is that all of Washington's warmongers are ready for war over what is actually a retaliatory strike by a country that is the victim of Saudi aggression, not the aggressor itself. Yemen did not attack Saudi Arabia in 2015. It was the other way around. If you start a war and the other country fights back, you should not be entitled to complain about how unfair the whole thing is.

The establishment reaction to the Yemeni oilfield strike reminds me of a hearing in the House Foreign Affairs Committee just before the US launched the 2003 Iraq war. As I was arguing against the authorization for that war, I pointed out that Iraq had never attacked the United States. One of my colleagues stopped me in mid-sentence, saying, "let me remind the gentleman that the Iraqis have been shooting at our planes for years." True, but those planes were bombing Iraq!

The neocons want a US war on Iran at any cost. They may feel temporarily at a disadvantage with the departure of their ally in the Trump Administration, John Bolton. However, the sad truth is that there are plenty more John Boltons in the Administration. And they have allies in the Lindsay Grahams in Congress.

Yemen has demonstrated that it can fight back against Saudi aggression. The only sensible way forward is for a rapid end to this four-year travesty, and the Saudis would be wise to wake up to the mess they've created for themselves. Whatever the case, US participation in Saudi Arabia's war on Yemen must end immediately and neocon lies about Iran's role in the war must be refuted and resisted.

[Sep 18, 2019] Oil prices only 7.2% above Friday. S P 500 within 1% of record. This is not normal behavior after "Pearl Harbor" type event. Something smells fishy, very fishy

Sep 18, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

JohnH , Sep 17 2019 22:39 utc | 42

Oil prices only 7.2% above Friday. S&P 500 within 1% of record. This is not normal behavior after "Pearl Harbor" type event. Something smells fishy, very fishy.

Stocks fell 4% after Pearl Harbor, 7% after 911.

Who is assuaging the markets' uncertainty about the dire consequences of SA attacks?


JohnH , Sep 17 2019 22:51 utc | 47

After looking at a number images on Google, I have yet to see anything that shows substantial fire damage apart from the blackened structures in the lower left hand corner of the satellite phot shown here.

Could this be false flag like the chemical weapons attacks in Syria? In this case, lots of fire, but set in such a way as to avoid actual damage?

augrr , Sep 18 2019 0:01 utc | 61
@42

You saw the Plunge Protection Team at work.

Bob Manley , Sep 18 2019 0:32 utc | 67
Having seen the battle damage photos published online, it seems clear to me that the Houthis are not responsible for this strike. First off, the Houthis claim to have launched only 10 suicide drones...the photos show 17 impact points.

But more importantly, the strike did not just hit the facility, it hit several very specific tanks within the facility, and it hit them with extreme precision. If the Houthis did this, then the Saudis should sue for peace immediately!

No, there seem to be just two plausible scenarios here, either the Iranians struck the Saudi facility themselves (which seems unlikely to me) or the Israelis carried out the strike as part of Bibi's re-election campaign (which seems much more likely). Cui bono?

iota , Sep 18 2019 0:58 utc | 73
What missing from the discussion of the Houthi strike against Abqaig is that these are long 'pipelines' of continuous chemical processes that must be gradually started up in sequence, and if necessary taken down in the same way.

The idea that after KSA was forced to suddenly take more than 50% of their petrochemical output offline as a result of the disastrous missile attack, they could start them up again like flipping a light switch, is pure propaganda.

The attack is as much about spiking the long touted sellout of Aramco to foreign interests than anything else. And indeed that must have been one the major strategic considerations that motivated the attack.

Hassaan , Sep 18 2019 1:46 utc | 76
Puncturing a containment tank with a small yield explosive would be similar to operating a propane/butane blow-torch. The pressure of the released gasses upon puncture would either completely extinguish any flame or the gasses would ignite but burn 20-30 feet away from the tanks themselves. The flame would not follow the gasses back into the tank, as the pressure of the exiting gasses would prevent that.

So, no, you wouldn't have an intense fire, nor large burn marks nor warping of the walls, you would have pretty much what you see in the satellite images.

That said, the media has been exaggerating the long-term effects of the Houthi's strike. The precision and range is impressive, and serves to warn against continued aggression, but with such small yield explosive devices, the long-term damage isn't going to be that great.

augrr , Sep 18 2019 1:48 utc | 77
Seems to me that a total focus on offense is what it takes to create an empire: conquest, subjugation, control are essential stepping stones to empire status. Once there, any potential challenge, disloyalty, stepping out of line has to be met with aggression to maintain the status quo.

As there will be no viable opposition, why be concerned about defense. That at least is the theory. In the case of Russia and China the empire was asleep at the switch and by the time this was realised it was too late to contain them, especially as they are joined at the hip in their opposition. End of empire.

JBrant , Sep 18 2019 1:50 utc | 78
I have to agree with Paul Roberts that Israel is the only likely attacker of KSA.
The attack occurred the day before their election, and incumbents always benefit from war fever, so this was made by and for Netanyahu. Like the fake Syria chemical weapons attacks, made just when inspectors were visiting Syria, this is obviously a false-flag attack by an enemy of Iran, and it certainly was not KSA or UAE. That leaves Israel, the only candidate that would benefit.

Others will recall that the fake Iraq-WMD scandal was made entirely by zionists: DefSec Wolfowitz installed known Israeli agents Perle, Wurmser, and Feith to run the offices at CIA, DIA, and NSA that "stove-piped" known-bad WMD "intelligence" directly to Cheney and Bush to start a war for Israel. All three of them had worked to convince Netanyahu himself to trick the US into a war for Israel. After exposure of the scam they were all given medals by Israel, as was Pollard, their spy who stole nearly all US nuclear weapons secrets and gave them to Israel, which sold them to the USSR. With friends like Israel and KSA, who needs enemies?

Swift , Sep 18 2019 8:48 utc | 111
This attack on Saudi oil facilities has been perfectly timed for maximum benefit to impact yesterday´s Israeli election result hopefully swaying voters towards the safest pair of hands they know in times of war,poll struggler PM Bibi with his new US mutual defense pact on the table.
10 Houti drones launched from the direction of Yemen plus an unknown number of likely zionist owned cruise missiles adding muscle to guarantee success by piggy backing on that attack. If results differ from polls then it will have been a worthwhile deceptive action. Saudis & US Frackers get the higher oil prices they need for their budget and perhaps Lloyds of London the 9-11 big losers are also on the hook for rebuilding Saudi´s ruined plant.Russia gets to sell Saudis defensive systems and America gets a recession with higher oil prices and Trump´s chances of re-election take a nose dive just days after Bolton resigned.
Last Day of Grace , Sep 18 2019 12:33 utc | 122
The Israelis did it! Way too many intentionally unanswered questions about launch and incoming direction. We have capability to find and examine a knat from outer space. But do not know origin or position of launch? A few reasons for event.
1. Reelect Satanyahu. And keep him out of jail.
2. Continue the Yinon plan--conquer the territory from the brook of Egypt (the Nile River) to the
Euphrates River, and NEVER allow the peace word to be uttered.
3. Every time Iran makes any suggestion of negotiations with the US, create an event that snuffs out any
peace effort.
4. Mollify the criminals of Saudis and Israelis who believe that the iron is hot, and this may be their
last good chance to take out Iran.
The only buffer against the warmongering Israeli Zionist faction that is restraining war now is the overpowering side of Judaism (the Rothschild Group) who do not want war that will blow up their world assets. And they still control most of the Israeli intelligence.
augusto , Sep 18 2019 12:35 utc | 124
after nearly everybody converges in agreeing the attack came from the ragtag houthis... let s see the overal fall out of the episode.
1- Saudi arabias country is vulnerable, the king s assets are very vulnerable from now on...
2-the US protection, US weapons and promises are close to a monstruous pile of shit;
3-Leaders all along the ME, Africa and else where are learning how to evaluate the American friendship and alliances
4-If and to the extent where the Salmans entourage manages to quickly recover the Saudi oil supply... Iran and Houthis will can quietly and accordingly assess and improve their weapons and strategies for the future.
Clear like sunshine.
BM , Sep 18 2019 14:51 utc | 150
Oil supply is back to what it was before the attack, but we don't know yet who is responsible - Saudi energy minister
Posted by: vk | Sep 18 2019 13:53 utc | 138

As I understand it - based on previous official Saudi announcements - that message is deceptive and really means the following:

1) "Oil supply" means what the Saudi's make available to the market, it does not mean production.

2) They previously announced they would make available 3 million BPD from Aramco reserves both within SA and overseas such as in Rotterdamm.

3) They previously announced the previous production was just under 10 million BPD.

4) Assuming over 50% of production is down for several weeks, they might be producing around 4 million BPD plus 3 million from reserves makes around 7 million BPD which is short of their claims.

5) The Houthis have announced more attacks are coming within a few days, so it looks like by next week the Saudis might not manage even the 7 million BPD.

6) Someone posted news on the previous thread that Saudi are even buying petrol from Iran, for domestic use because of shortages!

[Sep 17, 2019] Washington's rush to indict Iran over Saudi attacks

Notable quotes:
"... Wall Street Journal, ..."
Sep 17, 2019 | www.wsws.org

Casting itself once again as the world's judge, jury and executioner, US imperialism is recklessly hurtling toward yet another war in the Middle East, with catastrophic implications. This time, Washington has seized upon Saturday's attacks on Saudi installations as its pretext for war against Iran.

The reaction of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to these attacks, which have cut the kingdom's oil production by almost half and slashed global daily output by 6 percent, was as noteworthy for its haste as for its peculiar wording.

"Iran has now launched an unprecedented attack on the world's energy supply," Pompeo tweeted late Saturday, adding, "There is no evidence the attacks came from Yemen."

This image provided on Sunday, Sept. 15, 2019, by the U.S. government and DigitalGlobe and annotated by the source, shows damage to the infrastructure at Saudi Aramco's Abaqaiq oil processing facility in Buqyaq, Saudi Arabia. (U.S. government/Digital Globe via AP)

The indictment of Iran for attacks that set off a series of fires which devastated two oil facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia came without a shred of supporting evidence, outside of the bald assertion that there was "no evidence" that they were launched from Yemen.

Yemen had to be discounted, according to the secretary of state's predatory logic, because the Houthi rebels, who control most of the country, had claimed responsibility for the attacks and had a clear motive -- given the kingdom's near-genocidal war against Yemen's civilian population -- for carrying them out. The US mass media has by and large echoed Pompeo's allegations as absolute truth. On Monday night, television news broadcasts quoted unnamed intelligence sources, citing unspecified evidence, claiming Iranian responsibility for the attacks. No doubt this "evidence" will prove just as compelling as that of the Gulf of Tonkin in Vietnam and "weapons of mass destruction" in Iraq. These same media outlets have made virtually no mention of Saudi crimes in Yemen.

For the last four and a half years, Saudi Arabia has waged a near-genocidal war against Yemen, the Middle East's poorest country. The violence has claimed the lives of nearly 100,000 Yemenis outright -- the greatest share through a relentless bombing campaign against civilian targets -- while pushing some 8 million more to the brink of starvation.

Washington is a direct accomplice in this bloodbath, providing the warplanes, bombs and missiles used to carry it out, along with logistical support and, until the end of last year, mid-air refueling that allowed Saudi bombers to carry out uninterrupted carnage. Meanwhile, the US Navy has helped enforce a blockade that has starved Yemen of food and medicine.

If what the Yemeni Houthis say is true, that they sent a swarm of 10 weaponized drones to attack the Saudi facilities, then the action was clearly an act of self-defense, far less than proportionate to the slaughter inflicted by the Saudi regime against Yemen.

Meanwhile, Washington's new ambassador to the United Nations, Kelly Craft, repeated the charges against Iran on Monday before a United Nations Security Council meeting on Yemen. Providing no more proof than Pompeo did two days earlier, merely repeating the formulation that "there is no evidence that the attacks came from Yemen," she described the damage to the Saudi oil installations as "deeply troubling."

Like the government she represents, the UN ambassador -- the wife of billionaire Kentucky coal baron Joe Craft and a top Republican donor -- clearly finds the spilt oil of the Saudi monarchy far more upsetting than the spilt blood of tens of thousands of Yemeni men, women and children.

On Saturday night, President Donald Trump made a call to Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman, the kingdom's de facto ruler, offering his condolences and unqualified support to a man exposed as a cold-blooded murderer. Bin Salman is responsible not only for the grisly assassination and dismemberment of the Washington-based journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul nearly a year ago, but also the beheadings of at least 134 people in just the first half of this year, 34 of them political activists slaughtered en masse on April 23.

Trump subsequently announced that the US was "locked and loaded" to avenge Saudi oil with military force. (This was a variation on his assertion in June that the Pentagon had been "cocked and loaded" when he came, by his own account, within 10 minutes of launching devastating attacks on Iran after it shot down an unmanned US spy drone over its territory.)

If there is, as Washington claims, "no evidence" that the attacks were launched from Yemen, one could, with equal if not greater justification, observe that there is likewise "no evidence" that they were not launched by the US itself, or by its principal regional ally, Israel.

If one proceeds from the age-old detective maxim of Cui bono? or "Who benefits?", Tehran is the least likely suspect. There is clearly more to Washington's rush to judgment than meets the eye.

The attack on the Saudi oil facilities provides a casus belli desired by a major section of the US ruling oligarchy and its military and intelligence apparatus, which is determined to prosecute a war for regime change in Iran. Such a war would be the latest installment in Washington's protracted drive to reverse by military means the decline of US imperialism's global hegemony, in particular by claiming unfettered US control over the world's energy reserves and the power to deny them to its rivals.

The thinking within these layers was expressed in an editorial published Monday by the Wall Street Journal, the mouthpiece of US finance capital. The Journal warned that Iran was "probing Mr. Trump as much as the Saudis." It continued, "They are testing his resolve to carry out his 'maximum pressure' campaign, and they sense weakness." It pointed disapprovingly to Trump's failure to launch airstrikes in June following the downing of the US drone.

The Journal approvingly cited calls by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham for bombing Iranian oil refineries in order to "break the regime's back" and suggested that Trump "apologize to John Bolton, who warned repeatedly that Iran would take advantage of perceived weakness in the White House." Bolton, a long-time advocate of bombing Iran, resigned as Trump's national security adviser last week, reportedly over differences on policy toward Tehran.

The attack on the Saudi oil facilities also provides leverage for Washington in corralling the Western European powers -- the UK, France and Germany -- behind US war aims. Signatories to the Iranian nuclear accord that the Trump administration renounced, they have made feeble gestures toward countering Washington's "maximum pressure" sanctions regime in an attempt to salvage their own imperialist interests. While thus far failing to endorse US charges of Iranian responsibility, they could, by means of the attack on Saudi Arabia, be swung behind the US drive to war.

Israel and its beleaguered Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also have ample motive to stage a military action aimed at provoking war with Iran. On the eve of Tuesday's Israeli election, the threat of a major war with Iran serves the political interests of Netanyahu, whose political fortunes are inextricably tied to the escalation of military conflict in the Middle East. The Israeli state, moreover, had become increasingly concerned over an apparent cooling of the appetite of the ruling monarchies in both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates for a confrontation with Iran.

Recent drone strikes against Shia militias in Iraq that had allegedly received Iranian weapons were, according to a report by the web site Middle East Eye, staged by Israeli drones operating out of bases controlled by the so-called Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the main US proxy force in Syria. A similar covert US-Israeli collaboration could easily have produced the attacks on the Saudi oil installations.

Whatever the exact circumstances of the attacks on the Saudi oil facilities, they are being exploited for the purpose of dragging the American people and all of humanity into a war that can rapidly escalate into a regionwide and even global conflagration.

US strikes against Iran carried out under the pretext of retaliation for the attacks on Saudi Arabia can trigger Iranian counterstrikes, sending US warships to the bottom of the Persian Gulf and wreaking havoc on American military bases throughout the region.

The prospect of thousands of US soldiers and sailors dying as a result of Washington's conspiracies and aggression carries with it the threat of the US government assuming emergency powers and implementing police-state measures in the US itself in the name of "national security."

This would, by no means, be an unintended consequence. The buildup to war is driven in large measure by the escalation of social tensions and class struggle within the United States itself, which has found fresh expression in the strike by 46,000 autoworkers against General Motors. There is a powerful incentive for the US ruling class to direct these tensions outward in the eruption of military conflict, while creating the pretext for mass repression.

The threat of a US assault on Iran paving the way to a third world war must be answered through a politically conscious and independent intervention of the working class to put an end to imperialism and reorganize society on socialist foundations.

Bill Van Auken

[Sep 17, 2019] Iran Rejects US Accusation It Is Behind Saudi Attacks

Notable quotes:
"... Send Pompeo to the UN...... looks like yellow cake to me. ..."
Sep 17, 2019 | economistsview.typepad.com

Fred C. Dobbs , September 15, 2019 at 06:19 AM

Iran Rejects US Accusation It Is Behind
Saudi Attacks https://nyti.ms/30iNte7
NYT - Michael Wolgelenter - September 15

Iran on Sunday forcefully rejected charges by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that it was responsible for drone attacks that caused serious damage to two crucial Saudi Arabian oil installations, with the foreign minister dismissing the remarks as "max deceit."

The attacks on Saturday, which hold the potential to disrupt global oil supplies, were claimed by Houthi rebels in Yemen. Mr. Pompeo said that Iran had launched "an unprecedented attack on the world's oil supply," although he did not offer any evidence and stopped short of saying that Iran had carried out the missile strikes.

The Houthis are part of a complex regional dynamic in the Middle East, receiving support from Iran while the Saudis, Tehran's chief rival for supremacy in the region and the leader of a coalition that is fighting the Houthis in Yemen, are aligned with the United States.

Seyed Abbas Mousavi, a spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, castigated the Saudis for their role in the war in Yemen, where the Saudis have directed airstrikes that have caused heavy civilian casualties and exacerbated a humanitarian crisis. He also ridiculed Mr. Pompeo's comments.

The semiofficial Fars news agency reported on its English-language website that Mr. Mousavi described Mr. Pompeo's allegations as "blind and fruitless remarks" that were "meaningless" in a diplomatic context.

Saudi Arabia has yet to publicly accuse Iran of involvement in the attack. On Sunday, its Foreign Ministry urged international action to preserve the world oil supply in response to the attack, but it said nothing about assigning blame or striking back.

The developments come at a moment of rising tensions between Iran and the United States, which have mounted since President Trump pulled out of the 2015 accord in which Iran agreed with the West to restrict its nuclear program. Since the American withdrawal, Iran has gradually pulled away from its some obligations under the agreement. ...

Fred C. Dobbs said in reply to Fred C. Dobbs... , September 15, 2019 at 06:23 AM
... "US & its clients are stuck in Yemen because of illusion that weapon superiority will lead to military victory," Mr. Zarif wrote on Twitter. "Blaming Iran won't end disaster. Accepting our April '15 proposal to end war & begin talks may.

The attack on Saturday, which the Houthis said involved 10 drones, represented the rebels' most serious strike since Saudi Arabia inserted itself into the conflict in Yemen four years ago. That the rebels could cause such extensive damage to such a crucial part of the global economy astonished some observers. ...

im1dc , September 16, 2019 at 04:59 AM
It's Monday September 16th, 2019 and the weeks starts off like this:

GM's UAW Strike

Yemeni Houti Rebels Drones wipe out 50% of Saudi Arabia's oil production

Trump tweets in response is "locked and loaded" implying a new US war in the ME

One of Trump's White House flunky's declared "it is better if Trump does not study an issue" before making decisions (oh yea,"Stupid is what Stupid does")

Biden and S. Warren tied in the DEM race for 2020

Piketty's new Economics tome is out

PM Netanyahu is losing his re-election bid in Israel, to be determined by tomorrow's Election

We live in interesting times...

...the question I pose for the times is 'Are the People are better lead by businessmen, politicians, academics, or intellectuals?

ilsm -> im1dc... , September 16, 2019 at 06:29 AM
The biggest damage from

"Yemeni Houti Rebels Drones wipe out 50% of Saudi Arabia's oil production"

is the ARAMCO IPO.

"Trump tweets in response is "locked and loaded" implying a new US war in the ME"

Send Pompeo to the UN...... looks like yellow cake to me.

[Sep 17, 2019] Meet the Quds1 cruise missile. Made in Yemen - Sic Semper Tyrannis

Notable quotes:
"... Then the question arose whether drones had been used at all, or whether the attack might in fact have been a missile strike ..."
"... But regardless, the game has escalated up one more rung up the ladder. How many more will it take for the world to put its interests ahead of Israel's? ..."
"... Next escalation rung: a loading dock for supertankers: either the port of Yanbu or Ra's Tanura. Followed by desalination facilities, if Western politicians still pretend to turn a blind eye and prefer to follow the dictates of their Israeli masters. Nuff Sed. ..."
"... In asking the question, qui bono, you do have to include Netanyahu, who is up for reelection tomorrow. There's nothing like striking fear into the heart of the electorate on the eve of an election for firming up support for a proven incumbent. And if the US attacks Iran before tomorrow, so much the better for Netanyahu. ..."
"... That said, I don't think that Netanyahu's buddies in Riyadh would be amused if this were proven. However, poking a friend in the eye never seemed to stop Israel before think USS Liberty. ..."
"... Israel has the means, plus the motive (Bib's reelection), and might have taken the opportunity to attribute the attack to Iran and force Trump's hand. ..."
"... I am assuming, myself, personally, this action was taken to prevent a meeting in NYC between Trump and the President of Iran. That is my guess. ..."
"... There was never going to be a meeting between Rouhani and Trump. I expect to be dead of old age before there would be any substantive meetings between Iran and the United States. ..."
"... Supreme Ayatollah Khamenei has said there will be no meeting until the U.S.ends sanctions. ..."
"... I do not for a moment believe Bolton would have stood for it, and even though he's gone, neither will Pompeo or Pence. Both appear to be fanatically devoted to Israel. There may be meetings between low level functionaries, and Trump seems to want one very much, but Rouhani has said there is no way to trust America, so no point to talking. The situation may change if Netanyahu loses the election, although I have no reason to believe Avigdor will be any better. ..."
"... However, if Trump DOES cut a deal, he will not try and fluff it off as an "Executive Agreement"....if Trump cuts a deal he knows he will have to bring it to Congress. Thee Lobby may kill it there...or not. We'll see. ..."
"... It's not just Yemen. People forget there is an oppressed Shiite minority near the Aramco HQ (dispossessed of the oil fields, located in their ancestral area & treated like sub-sub-citizens); they get periodically beheaded" ..."
"... The Al Saud gang, under the Clown Prince Muhammad Bone Saw, can not count on those Shiite inhabitants of the oil rich region, not necessarily because of the latter's sympathy for Iran but because they were brutalized for almost a century. ..."
"... One to benefit from it that I see so far is Saudi's Aramco IPO which is critical to Saudi . According to WSJ they were considering delaying it because of low oil prices, they needed oil to reach $80 barrel to make it viable. The attack sent prices up but now market is talking about risk if there are 'on going attacks'. What could we deduce if there are no on going attacks and the IPO proceeds? ..."
"... We know Yemen has the Quds-1 and has surprised us before with their technical capability. Combine that with the video of Yahya Sari claiming full responsibility for the attack and I'm not sure there is any reason to speculate about conspiracies involving other actors. ..."
"... In addition, the specificity of the targets hit suggests good intel. I would suspect that Houthi's have linked with disaffected groups in SA (lots!) and improved their Humint. It seems highly unlikely that Iran would do something like this AND leave their fingerprints behind - at least based on recent events. ..."
"... Never underestimate the feckless laziness of the Saudis. In my experience they turn off all ATC and air defense systems that require manning or watch keeping when they find them inconvenient as on the weekend. IMO if Ansarallah did this they will do something similar soon to prove they are responsible. ..."
"... israel gets a lot of press and speculation on this board as well as everywhere else for all their conspiracies and supposed omnipotent power and control but in this writers opinion THEY have been punching way above their actual weight for years and current reality has exposed how feckless and puny they really are in the scheme of things. ..."
"... ''i suspect the whole 'jew' thing regarding israel is what animates people so much. if israel were all zoroastrians i doubt the world would credit them with all the machinations israel is viewed as responsible for.'' A Cult is a Cult regardless of it members makeup. And Israel is looking more like a Jim Jones farm every day. ..."
"... And Iran has demonstrated that they can cause months worth of damage on the KSA, the UAE, and Kuwait. I can't believe the number of Congressman who simultaneously believe that Iran was able to glide over U.S. made air defenses without detection and also believe that we can simply carpet bomb their refineries without any repercussion. How can one believe both things at the same time? That Iran is responsible for a sophisticated ghost attack and that they are incapable of retaliating in a target rich environment. ..."
"... Not only did Graham say this but the loon from Maryland repeated it. These people are insane but MSM hosts encourage it, just saw Cavuto snear at Ron Paul because he actually made sense. We are so messed up. ..."
"... Everyone keeps misunderestimating the Yemenis. The Houthis are fighting as part of a coalition that includes a large part of the Yemeni military and intelligence services. This coalition is carrying out a war under guerrilla conditions, but that war is led by professional military men. ..."
"... It is the benefit of being a perfumed prince or fop or neo-con that history has no meaning because history ended sometime in the 90's. Somehow I hear the voice of a Rove lecturing: ..."
"... "That's not the way the world really works anymore." He continued "We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality -- judiciously, as you will -- we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do." ..."
"... Yes indeed. Dave deserves hearty congratulations though we might add a caveat. The said "valves" could have been blown out in advance via software or person throwing a switch (humint or cyber component to one attack vector). ..."
"... It cries out "sure, it's bad, but it is reversible." ..."
"... Houthis have every reason to utilize their advanced weapons systems against Saudi targets to bring the war to an end. As for Iran, seems they have been on a semi-successful diplomatic campaign to counter US maximum pressure with their own maximum pressure on Europeans, Russia and China to deliver on the economic benefits that are as important in JCPOA as the curtailing of Iran's nuclear program. ..."
"... Trump talking about meeting Rouhani in New York, Zarif in China getting at least $50-100 billion in pledged economic support, Russia suggesting $10 billion investment in the Iranian energy sector: Why would Iran at this moment make a direct move to turn the world fully against them? Perhaps a rogue faction of IRGC out to stop any diplomatic action, but even that would have to come with OK from Khamenei--or there would be strong action against the rogues. ..."
"... Pressure on Trump to maintain the hardline against Iran following Bolton ouster? Pompeo has been leading the diplomatic back channels and repeating Trump's goal of forcing Iran to the table. Even the Saudis are for the moment hesitant to blame Iran, actually calling for a UN investigation into the source of the attacks. ..."
"... "The Iran did it" narrative as an attempt to keep on undermining the pro-Syrian government coalition. ..."
Sep 17, 2019 | turcopolier.typepad.com

Meet the Quds1 cruise missile. Made in Yemen?

"On September 14, several explosions rocked the Khurais oilfield as well as the Abqaiq refinery, one of Saudi Arabia's most vital petrochemical installations. Several hours later, the Houthis claimed that they had targeted both facilities with ten drones as part of their "Balance of Deterrence" campaign.

What made this attack different from other recorded Houthi drone attacks was not only the unprecedented amount of material damage caused but also lingering doubt about the nature and the attribution of the attack. First, a video allegedly showing flying objects entering Kuwaiti airspace led to speculation that like a previous "Houthi" drone attack this strike might actually have originated in Iraq or even Iran. While the video remains unverified, the fact that the Kuwaiti government launched a probe into the issue lends some credence to the idea that something might have happened over Kuwait that day. Speculation about the origins of the attack was further fueled by a tweet by Mike Pompeo in which he claimed that there was no evidence the attacks came from Yemen.

Then the question arose whether drones had been used at all, or whether the attack might in fact have been a missile strike. Previous Houthi drone strikes against oil facilities tended to result in quite limited damage which could be an indication that a different weapons system was used this time. Indeed, Aramco came to the conclusion that its facilities were attacked by missiles. Even more curious, several pictures began to emerge on social media purportedly showing the wreckage of a missile in the Saudi desert. While the images appear real, neither the date the photos were taken nor their location can be verified.

Social media users quickly claimed the images showed a crashed Iranian-made Soumar cruise missile. The Soumar and its updated version, the Hoveyzeh, are Iran's attempts at reverse-engineering the Soviet-designed KH-55 cruise missile, several of which the country illegally imported from Ukraine in the early 2000s . Others claimed it was the Quds 1, a recently unveiled Houthi cruise missile often claimed to be a rebranded Soumar." armscontrolwonl

---------------

TTG raised the issue of whether or not this wave of strikes was done by UAVs or cruise missiles. IMO this cruise missile could be built in Yemen with Iranian assistance. I am very interested in the question of what the actual vector of the attacks was in this case. pl

/www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1208062/meet-the-quds-1/


Nuff Sed , 16 September 2019 at 10:43 AM

The accuracy of the strikes in the spherical pressurized gas storage containers all being in the same place relative to each target is the place to start for those who, unlike me, are capable of analyzing these things.

But regardless, the game has escalated up one more rung up the ladder. How many more will it take for the world to put its interests ahead of Israel's?

Next escalation rung: a loading dock for supertankers: either the port of Yanbu or Ra's Tanura. Followed by desalination facilities, if Western politicians still pretend to turn a blind eye and prefer to follow the dictates of their Israeli masters. Nuff Sed.

JohnH said in reply to Nuff Sed ... , 16 September 2019 at 12:19 PM
In asking the question, qui bono, you do have to include Netanyahu, who is up for reelection tomorrow. There's nothing like striking fear into the heart of the electorate on the eve of an election for firming up support for a proven incumbent. And if the US attacks Iran before tomorrow, so much the better for Netanyahu.

That said, I don't think that Netanyahu's buddies in Riyadh would be amused if this were proven. However, poking a friend in the eye never seemed to stop Israel before think USS Liberty.

JohnH said in reply to JohnH... , 16 September 2019 at 02:59 PM
"The Israeli military is armed with the latest fast jets and precision weaponry, yet it has turned to its fleet of drones to hit targets in Iraq. Deniability has played a big factor – the ability of drones to elude radar and therefore keep targets guessing about who actually bombed them is playing well for Israeli leaders who are trying to prevent an increasingly lethal shadow war with Iran from developing into an open conflict."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/16/middle-east-drones-signal-end-to-era-of-fast-jet-air-supremacy

Israel has the means, plus the motive (Bib's reelection), and might have taken the opportunity to attribute the attack to Iran and force Trump's hand.

Procopius said in reply to JohnH... , 17 September 2019 at 08:09 AM
The Samad 3 is laden with explosives that allow it to detonate a shaped charge which explodes downwards towards its target. Footage provided to MintPress by Yemen's Operations Command Center shows the Samad landing on an asphalt runway, confirming that the drone is now capable of conducting operations and then returning to base.
from Mint Press, Jul 9, 2019.
Thirdeye said in reply to Nuff Sed ... , 16 September 2019 at 03:02 PM
Neat holes on the western sides of the tanks. Shape charges? Wonder what the required payload would be.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/09/damage-at-saudi-oil-plant-points-to-well-targeted-swarm-attack.html#more

Johnb said in reply to Nuff Sed ... , 17 September 2019 at 12:42 AM
There is a huge sea water desalination plant not far away that provides all the treated water via pipeline for injection into the oil reservoirs to improve recovery of oil. Target that and not only have you already impacted the processing of the oil produced but would then impact the total volume of oil available for processing.

I can see no happy ending short of negotiation between interested parties. MBZ looks to have already reached that conclusion in respect of the UAE. what will be the self preservation response for the House of Saud

jonst , 16 September 2019 at 10:52 AM
Could the Committee speculate on possible 'steps of retaliation' operating, for theoretical purposes, at the moment, on the assumption that regardless of where the 'bullets' were fired from, or from what 'gun' they were fired, Iran paid for deed. What steps are open for action?

I am assuming, myself, personally, this action was taken to prevent a meeting in NYC between Trump and the President of Iran. That is my guess.

BABAK MAKKINEJAD -> jonst... , 16 September 2019 at 11:28 AM
There was never going to be a meeting between Rouhani and Trump. I expect to be dead of old age before there would be any substantive meetings between Iran and the United States.
Procopius said in reply to jonst... , 17 September 2019 at 08:15 AM
Supreme Ayatollah Khamenei has said there will be no meeting until the U.S.ends sanctions.

I do not for a moment believe Bolton would have stood for it, and even though he's gone, neither will Pompeo or Pence. Both appear to be fanatically devoted to Israel. There may be meetings between low level functionaries, and Trump seems to want one very much, but Rouhani has said there is no way to trust America, so no point to talking. The situation may change if Netanyahu loses the election, although I have no reason to believe Avigdor will be any better.

Babak Makkinejad -> Procopius... , 17 September 2019 at 08:42 AM
Even then discussion were to be in 5+1 forum.

US is in an economic, legal, political, and religious war with Iran. I should think that you would need a cease fire deal before anything else.

jonst said in reply to Procopius... , 17 September 2019 at 09:30 AM
With all due respect, I think one of us fails to grasp the true nature of Trump. If he puts his mind to it, and thinks it will benefit him, nobody, not Bolton, not Pompeo, not the whole Neocon cabal, Israeli govt, the present one or the next one, will stop him if he is President and alive. He will do what is best for Trump.

And trust has nothing to do with this. Why in the hell should I trust Iran? Hell, why should I trust the UK? I trust that people and nations have interests. That's all I trust. But that does mean I could not reach a deal with them. Now, as to whether that deals holds...that is another question. However, if Trump DOES cut a deal, he will not try and fluff it off as an "Executive Agreement"....if Trump cuts a deal he knows he will have to bring it to Congress. Thee Lobby may kill it there...or not. We'll see.

JP Billen said in reply to BABAK MAKKINEJAD... , 16 September 2019 at 04:46 PM
Babak, I value your input here. However, I hope you are wrong and that a meeting or meetings (substantive or not) will start as soon as the dealbreaker is out of office, and the sanctions are called off. But I would never wish you an early death. May you live a hundred years.
BABAK MAKKINEJAD -> JP Billen... , 17 September 2019 at 09:53 AM
Thank you very kindly. I would like to ask the following questions:

In my opinion, the answer to all of these are "no". Unfortunately, even if a man with the caliber of an FDR or a Nixon is elected to the US Presidency, he will not be able to accomplish much because of the difficulty, nay the impossibility, of untangling the rules and regulations that US has woven against Iran.

In my opinion, all of that was predicated on the strategic defeat of Iran and her surrender.

jonst said in reply to BABAK MAKKINEJAD... , 17 September 2019 at 01:42 PM
If I WERE ANSWERING. I got some demands of my own..but we can put them aside for the moment. In general, I would be inclined to respond: Yes, to the "sovereign immunity" question. Certainly. Regarding "economic warfare", you would have to give me your legal definition of such a broad phrase, but in principle, yes. Whole heartedly yes. Sanctions against Iran, and it individuals officers? Yes, absolutely. Sick of sanctions, in general. It is not in my power to answer the "unrequited love" issue, but I do solemnly state that I would agree to stop laughing--in public, anyway, at the question. Wanna meet?
Amir -> jonst... , 16 September 2019 at 02:13 PM
Nassim Nicolaas Taleb, author of "Black Swan":
"SAUDI FIELDS
It's not just Yemen. People forget there is an oppressed Shiite minority near the Aramco HQ (dispossessed of the oil fields, located in their ancestral area & treated like sub-sub-citizens); they get periodically beheaded"

The Al Saud gang, under the Clown Prince Muhammad Bone Saw, can not count on those Shiite inhabitants of the oil rich region, not necessarily because of the latter's sympathy for Iran but because they were brutalized for almost a century.

eakens , 16 September 2019 at 11:01 AM
https://gifyu.com/image/hofq
turcopolier , 16 September 2019 at 11:26 AM
jonst

So, you believe that the damage was self inflicted?

jonst said in reply to turcopolier ... , 16 September 2019 at 02:05 PM
No, sorry for lack of clarity. I believe Iran was behind it.
catherine said in reply to jonst... , 16 September 2019 at 03:20 PM
''I believe Iran was behind it.''

Why would Iran have done it? Just to show they can or to provoke a attack on Iran?

One to benefit from it that I see so far is Saudi's Aramco IPO which is critical to Saudi . According to WSJ they were considering delaying it because of low oil prices, they needed oil to reach $80 barrel to make it viable. The attack sent prices up but now market is talking about risk if there are 'on going attacks'. What could we deduce if there are no on going attacks and the IPO proceeds?

Only other beneficiary would be Israel if the attack actually does and likely has killed any Trump-Iran meeting.

Yemenis claimed credit for it, Iran and Iraq said they didn't do it. First word out of US mouth is Iran did it. The mouth I am least likely to believe is the US. I remember Iraq has WMDs propaganda....and those it came from.

jonst said in reply to catherine... , 17 September 2019 at 06:45 AM
Oh well, if Iran says they did not do it.......the US govt lies. The Iranian govt lies, the Saudis surely lie. This is not about innocents. That search is for children and mighty young ones at that.
The Twisted Genius , 16 September 2019 at 11:58 AM
The Quds-1 cruise missile is a UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle). The remotely piloted aerial vehicles, which are more commonly referred to as drones are also UAVs. The difference is in the degree of autonomy in flight control. On board autonomous flight control negates the need for LOS radio or satellite communications with the cruise missile. Cruise missiles, with their autonomous control, were always characterized by their high degree of accuracy.

I've started looking a little closer at the Arduino/RasberryPi and model aircraft hobbyist groups. With the availability of affordable microcontrollers and sensors, along with the massive library of open source software, I am convinced a hobbyist could put together a guidance system in his garage workshop capable of doing what the Quds-1 just did in SA. I also agree with Colonel Lang that an airframe like the Quds-1 could easily be built in war-torn Yemen. A cave would make an outstanding workshop.

Amir -> The Twisted Genius ... , 16 September 2019 at 01:54 PM
I tend to have a distant memory of a chart showing that the Yemeni missile range was way lobed that the Iranian, almost embryonal arsenal, in the 80's. I think they are well capable of developing/upgrading better missile: www.janes.com/images/assets/330/72330/Yemeni_rebels_enhance_ballistic_missile_campaign.pdf

Even if Iran exported dual use components or even blue prints; it should be counted as part of the unfortunate world weapons market & wouldn't be illegal.

Amir -> The Twisted Genius ... , 16 September 2019 at 04:56 PM
"Arms Control Wonk" describing the difference/similarities between the Iranian missiles and the Yemeni cruise missiles, used to give MBS a taste of his own medicine: www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1208062/meet-the-quds-1/
JamesT -> The Twisted Genius ... , 16 September 2019 at 07:35 PM
This drone discussion board is interesting: https://diydrones.com
Johnb said in reply to The Twisted Genius ... , 17 September 2019 at 01:02 AM
Your point TTG was nicely illustrated in b's video of the Russian guy building in his workshopa turbofan engine that flew . Providing there is a set of plans it can be constructed and it only has to have a one time reliability.

Evidence for what delivered the strike will be found within the complex and there will be a lot of skills on the ground looking for those answers. The projectiles that struck the spheres looked to have had penetrating qualities rather than high explosive, putting a hole in a pressure vessel is sufficient to destroy its usefulness. I would be interested to know if the projectiles that struck the train were explosive to maximise damage there. Do we need to be considering what could deliver multiple targeted projectiles or were there simply multiple independent units or some combination as there were more strikes logged over two target complexes than the ten delivery platforms mentioned in the Al Ansar press release. Was there a flight controller and if so where were they located also comes to mind.

Adrestia said in reply to The Twisted Genius ... , 17 September 2019 at 02:54 AM
I was looking at the engine. The Quds 1 is powered by a TJ100 built in the Czech republic. https://www.pbsaerospace.com/our-products/tj-100-turbojet-engine

There is also the TJ200 built bij Polaris from Brazil with the following description::

"Turbine TJ200: TJ200 was specially designed to be used in either small cruise missiles or small high performance UAVs. The most important advantage of TJ200 engine is small diameter and a relatively low SFC (Specific Fuel Consumption) when compared to other engines of the same thrust, what makes TJ200 perfect to be used in long range small missiles." http://www.polaristec.com.br/products.html

That's a pretty specific description. So there are a number of COTS engines out there.

CK said in reply to The Twisted Genius ... , 17 September 2019 at 07:43 AM
If those benighted peoples of the desert can do this just think what highly motivated Antifa types could build in the warehouses of Portland.
JP Billen , 16 September 2019 at 01:45 PM
"neither the date the photos were taken nor their location can be verified."

Bingo! Interesting that bin Salman has put a press blackout on both Khurais and Buqaiq.

elkern said in reply to JP Billen... , 17 September 2019 at 12:26 AM
I'd have more confidence in the reporting if I could match it up better with what I can see in Google Maps/Earth.

The only two satellite pictures I've seen of "burning oil plants" disticntly show a large plume of black smoke centered a little ways away from the actual refinery area, in some kind of rectangular area outside the actual "plant". Are those wellheads burning? or adjacent underground storage? or what?

And the pictured of a burning plant labeled "Haradh Gas Plant" is actually (according to Google Maps & my eyeballs) the Hawiyah Gas Plant, about 60 miles NNE of Haradh.

In Google Maps/Earth, the Abqaiq facility is on the East side of the city/town of Buquaiq, and the details match the recent pix. The plume lines up with an empty square patch of desert at the end of a pipeline running SSE out of the plant.

I've looked all around Khurais, and haven't found anything which could possibly be the "Oil/Gas Infrastructure at Khurais", as the pictures of the damaged facility there are labeled.

Google Earth is big fun.

JP Billen said in reply to elkern... , 17 September 2019 at 10:58 AM
Elkern, I was referring to the pictures of the cruise missile parts in the sand. Seems to me they are old from previous attacks.

As far as I can tell the pics of damage at Buqaiq and Khurais are valid. With the exception of the eleven spherical tanks, which I believe were NOT hit. But I've been wrong before and am no expert on imagery analysis.

Erwin , 16 September 2019 at 02:00 PM
We know Yemen has the Quds-1 and has surprised us before with their technical capability. Combine that with the video of Yahya Sari claiming full responsibility for the attack and I'm not sure there is any reason to speculate about conspiracies involving other actors.

The Houthis are not an Iranian "proxy" and I highly doubt they would accept responsibility for something they didn't do.

ISL , 16 September 2019 at 03:10 PM
Dear Colonel,

Moon of Alabama links some photos and has discussion that suggests very high precision 5-10 m. That is not easily achievable with commercial GPS absent a lot of additional correction hardware. On the other hand, drones can easily do so. Further, it would be negligent for SA not to have GPS jamming around such facilities.

In addition, the specificity of the targets hit suggests good intel. I would suspect that Houthi's have linked with disaffected groups in SA (lots!) and improved their Humint. It seems highly unlikely that Iran would do something like this AND leave their fingerprints behind - at least based on recent events.

turcopolier , 16 September 2019 at 03:33 PM
ISL et al

Never underestimate the feckless laziness of the Saudis. In my experience they turn off all ATC and air defense systems that require manning or watch keeping when they find them inconvenient as on the weekend. IMO if Ansarallah did this they will do something similar soon to prove they are responsible.

PeterHug said in reply to turcopolier ... , 17 September 2019 at 01:26 PM
Well, the Swiss Air Force is only able to respond to emergencies during normal business hours...
ted richard , 16 September 2019 at 03:48 PM
imo, the saudi's and washington are going to have to take one for the team. the team being the global oil based world economy and all the notional value FOR THE present ONLY oil derivatives and interest rate derivatives burdening the western banking system.... think the insolvent deutsche bank et al.

a war on iran will do every bit as much damage or MORE to the west as it does to iran which both russia and china can not.. will not allow to die.

israel gets a lot of press and speculation on this board as well as everywhere else for all their conspiracies and supposed omnipotent power and control but in this writers opinion THEY have been punching way above their actual weight for years and current reality has exposed how feckless and puny they really are in the scheme of things.

i suspect the whole 'jew' thing regarding israel is what animates people so much. if israel were all zoroastrians i doubt the world would credit them with all the machinations israel is viewed as responsible for.

catherine said in reply to ted richard... , 16 September 2019 at 04:39 PM
''i suspect the whole 'jew' thing regarding israel is what animates people so much. if israel were all zoroastrians i doubt the world would credit them with all the machinations israel is viewed as responsible for.'' A Cult is a Cult regardless of it members makeup. And Israel is looking more like a Jim Jones farm every day.
Peter AU 1 , 16 September 2019 at 04:51 PM
Only one tank appears to have minor sooting or scorching. As though they were emptied after an initial strike then targeted in a second strike, but no reports of a second strike.
In the sat pic showing targets in red boxes, top square, the target appears to be smaller spheres which do look darkened.
The Twisted Genius , 16 September 2019 at 05:00 PM
Several correspondents here, including Adrestia and b, seem to lack faith in an autonomous navigation and terminal guidance system for these cruise missiles. They do not need a radio or cell phone communication link. This could have been even without a GPS signal. Given that the strikes appear to come from the west, the smartest route would be to fly north to the pipelines and then east to the targets. Once the missiles are close to the target either a visual terminal guidance system could take over or the targets are marked and the missiles' terminal guidance systems just home in on the marked targets. The marks could be laser illumination, small IR strobes or offset targeting devices. These offset targeting devices are emplaced with the exact azimuth and distance to the desired target programmed into the missiles' terminal guidance system. As I said before, we did this in the early 80s. In the 90s, I used the IR strobes. These were tiny lights snapped to the top of a 9V battery. You could carry a dozen in your pocket. I personally like the idea of emplacing small IR strobes on target or a set distance and azimuth from the target. The missiles could home on a spot say due east and 100 meters from the strobe. I'm sure there are other methods I haven't thought of yet. My educated guess is that this strike was well thought out with both intelligence and operational support on and near the target site. Anyone who thinks the Houthi and their Yemeni allies are incapable of planning and executing this is magnificently ignorant.
Adrestia said in reply to The Twisted Genius ... , 17 September 2019 at 12:14 PM
My perspective is for the DIY drone using COTS.

GPS is not accurate enough for the last 10-30 feet. Another possiblity that doesn't need any human terminal guidance could be a creative use of sensors.

Using CARVER select suitable targets. Pick something that is hot, big or fumes gas.

Then use a combination of gas-sensing, parking-sensors, heat-sensing sensors for the last few feet.

https://store.arduino.cc/components/components-sensors
https://tutorials-raspberrypi.com/raspberry-pi-sensors-overview-50-important-components/#temperature
https://tutorials-raspberrypi.com/raspberry-pi-sensors-overview-50-important-components/

walrus , 16 September 2019 at 05:21 PM
I'm reading the manual for an FY41AP autopilot right now. About $250, made in china. As for optical guidance, the attacks happened about 0400 - night or dawn?

This autopilot has a video link as well as autonomous and ground based control modes I think. If the Yemenis had a guy with a transceiver near abqaiq, then maybe they could send these things over from yemen using gps and a guy with transceiver provided terminal guidance. If that were to happen the drones would need to be launched at set intervals.

JP Billen said in reply to walrus... , 17 September 2019 at 10:49 AM
Night. Dawn at Riyadh was approximately 5:38 AM. But those facilities would have been well lit up with hundreds of floodlights.
Antoinetta III , 16 September 2019 at 05:49 PM
Your last sentence is true enough as far as it goes, but also, if Israel were all Zoroastrians (or any other group) the world would have dealt with their paranoid and psychopathic behavior decades ago. The only reason they get away with everything is because they are Jewish.
oldman22 , 16 September 2019 at 07:37 PM
Bacevich in NYT op ed. Behind a paywall, here is a copy. Please do not post if it is too long or off topic

Iran Might Be America's Enemy, but Saudi Arabia Is No Friend

After last week's refinery attack, Trump should be careful about throwing America's weight behind an unreliable "ally."

By Andrew J. Bacevich

Mr. Bacevich is president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

Sept. 16, 2019

Image The American frigate Stark, which was hit by two missiles fired from an Iraqi fighter plane during the Iran-Iraq war in 1987. The American frigate Stark, which was hit by two missiles fired from an Iraqi fighter plane during the Iran-Iraq war in 1987.

In 1987, an Iraqi warplane attacked an American Navy frigate, the Stark, on patrol in the Persian Gulf. Accepting Saddam Hussein's explanation that the attack, which killed 37 sailors, had been an accident, American officials promptly used the incident, which came at the height of the Iran-Iraq war, to ratchet up pressure on Tehran. The incident provided the impetus for what became a brief, and all but forgotten, maritime war between the United States and Iran.

Last week, someone -- precisely who remains to be determined -- attacked two oil refineries in Saudi Arabia. American authorities have been quick to blame Iran, and the possibility of a violent confrontation between the two countries is once again growing. Before making a decision on whether to pull the trigger, President Trump would do well to reflect on that 1987 episode and its legacy.

Back then, the United States had become involved in the very bloody and seemingly interminable Iran-Iraq war, which Hussein had instigated in 1980 by invading Iran. As that war turned into a brutal stalemate, President Ronald Reagan and his advisers persuaded themselves that it was in America's interests to come to Iraq's aid. Iran was the "enemy" so Iraq became America's "friend."

After the Stark episode, American and Iranian naval forces in the Gulf began jousting, an uneven contest that culminated in April 1988 with the virtual destruction of the Iranian Navy.

Yet the United States gained little from this tidy victory. The principal beneficiary was Hussein, who wasted no time in repaying Washington by invading and annexing Kuwait soon after his war with Iran ground to a halt. Thus did America's "friend" become America's "enemy."

The encounter with Iran became a precedent-setting event and a font of illusions. Since then, a series of administrations have indulged the fantasy that the direct or indirect application of military power can somehow restore stability to the Gulf.

In fact, just the reverse has occurred. Instability has become chronic, with the relationship between military policy and actual American interests in the region becoming ever more difficult to discern.

In 2019, this now well-established penchant for armed intervention finds the United States once more involved in a proxy conflict, this time a civil war that has ravaged Yemen since 2015. Saudi Arabia supports one side in this bloody and interminable conflict, and Iran the other.

Under President Barack Obama and now President Trump, the United States has thrown in its lot with Saudi Arabia, providing support comparable to what the Reagan administration gave Saddam Hussein back in the 1980s. But American-assisted Saudi forces have exhibited no more competence today than did American-assisted Iraqi forces back then. So the war in Yemen drags on.
ImageSmoke billowing from one of the oil facilities hit by drone attacks on two Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Abqaiq, in Saudi Arabia's eastern province, on Saturday.
Smoke billowing from one of the oil facilities hit by drone attacks on two Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Abqaiq, in Saudi Arabia's eastern province, on Saturday.CreditAgence France-Presse -- Getty Images

Concrete American interests in this conflict, which has already claimed an estimated 70,000 lives while confronting as many as 18 million with the prospect of starvation, are negligible. Once more, as in the 1980s, the demonization of Iran has contributed to a policy that is ill advised and arguably immoral.

I am not suggesting that Washington is supporting the wrong side in Yemen. I am suggesting, however, that neither side deserves support. Iran may well qualify as America's "enemy." But Saudi Arabia is not a "friend," regardless of how many billions Riyadh spends purchasing American-manufactured weaponry and how much effort Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman invests in courting President Trump and members of his family.

The conviction, apparently widespread in American policy circles, that in the Persian Gulf (and elsewhere) the United States is compelled to take sides, has been a source of recurring mischief. No doubt the escalating rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran poses a danger of further destabilizing the Gulf. But the United States is under no obligation to underwrite the folly of one side or the other.

Supporting Iraq in its foolhardy war with Iran in the 1980s proved to be strategically shortsighted in the extreme. It yielded vastly more problems than it solved. It set in train a series of costly wars that have produced negligible benefits. Supporting Saudi Arabia today in its misbegotten war in Yemen is no less shortsighted.

Power confers choice, and the United States should exercise it. We can begin to do so by recognizing that Saudi Arabia's folly need not be our problem.

Andrew J. Bacevich is president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and the author of the forthcoming "The Age of Illusions: How America Squandered Its Cold War Victory."

Christian Chuba , 16 September 2019 at 07:47 PM
"a war on iran will do every bit as much damage or MORE to the west as it does to iran"

And Iran has demonstrated that they can cause months worth of damage on the KSA, the UAE, and Kuwait. I can't believe the number of Congressman who simultaneously believe that Iran was able to glide over U.S. made air defenses without detection and also believe that we can simply carpet bomb their refineries without any repercussion. How can one believe both things at the same time? That Iran is responsible for a sophisticated ghost attack and that they are incapable of retaliating in a target rich environment.

Not only did Graham say this but the loon from Maryland repeated it. These people are insane but MSM hosts encourage it, just saw Cavuto snear at Ron Paul because he actually made sense. We are so messed up.

Matt , 16 September 2019 at 08:35 PM
I found those gas domes on Google maps using the satellite view, I tagged the co-ordinates as: 25°55'37.3"N 49°41'00.8"E

or in digital format: 25.927015, 49.683559

here's a link that should take you straight there:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/25%C2%B055'37.3%22N+49%C2%B041'00.8%22E/@25.927015,49.6813703,702m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d25.927015!4d49.683559

use the pic released by USG of the damage to get an idea of the orientation of the incoming projectiles, I used that rectangularish pond behind as an aid,

then progressively zoom out looking to see which country they 'could' have come from?

oy vey!

Foxbat , 16 September 2019 at 08:50 PM
Everyone keeps misunderestimating the Yemenis. The Houthis are fighting as part of a coalition that includes a large part of the Yemeni military and intelligence services. This coalition is carrying out a war under guerrilla conditions, but that war is led by professional military men. Yemen had a serious air force consisting mostly of missile systems before the war. Much of it was destroyed by the bombing campaign carried out for Saudi Arabia, but the military organization survived. They have now reconstituted the Yemeni air forces under fire and in the midst of famine, blockade and invasion.

Stock up on popcorn, the show has only just begun.

Robert Waddell , 17 September 2019 at 01:41 AM
All,

Using my CAD and graphic tools and Google Earth along with the photo showing the four perforated pressure tanks, I have estimated the four vectors as:
E1 280W. E2 279W, E3 281W and E4 273W. I have numbered the tanks from the most eastwards (the furthermost away in the photo). Angles from true north (0/360 deg). This averages as 278N with a STDEV of 3 degrees. Its almost due west. Must be very difficult for autopilots (or real pilots) could perform more than one group-turning maneuver and still maintain final-run accuracy to what was achieved.

p.s. I'm not specialist in this field apart from terrestrial navigation and drafting experience.
RobW

Adrestia , 17 September 2019 at 03:19 AM
The Czech company which produces the TJ100 does have strong links with Iran. "2005 TPP Iranshahr Iran, the largest project in the company's history, a turnkey project - four power plant units." But then again. Creating a crash site in the desert with some COTS components in it is also easy to do. I would be surprised if Iran is launching missiles now. That would be pretty stupid to do.
turcopolier , 17 September 2019 at 07:49 AM
CK There is nothing "benighted" about them. that is a lesson the perfumed fops in Ryadh ae learning.
CK said in reply to turcopolier ... , 17 September 2019 at 08:27 AM
I know. I was attempting a comparison between the way most Americans perceive the desert peoples and the way most Americans fail to extrapolate from their beliefs of one groups capabilities and motivations and another group closer to home. The perfumed fops in Ryadh and the Perfumed Princes in DC are very similar under the perfume.
I remember in the mid sixties how the "benighted" Vietnamese and VC were on their last legs, unable to do anything militarily significant, that the war would be over in 67. This was that generations perfumed princes attitude towards a people who had been fighting against invaders since the 1850s. I remember 68 and the most unexpectedly successful operational and strategic level victory by the NVA and the VC that was TET.

From an infotainment/Cronkite perspective the important thing was that the Saigon embassy was broached. From and operational perspective a "defeated" enemy launched several hundred simultaneous attacks all over South Vietnam while holding down as a diversion the Dien Bien Phu look alike that was Khe San. 51 years 2 and 1/2 generations and today we make the exact same mistakes in evaluating the current situation.

It is the benefit of being a perfumed prince or fop or neo-con that history has no meaning because history ended sometime in the 90's. Somehow I hear the voice of a Rove lecturing:

"That's not the way the world really works anymore." He continued "We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality -- judiciously, as you will -- we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."

Procopius , 17 September 2019 at 07:59 AM
I found this interesting report on a display of Houthi missiles and drones from June. https://www.mintpressnews.com/uae-yemen-troop-withdrawal-houthi-new-drones-missiles/260253/

I have seen articles over the last month or so (sorry, no links) saying that because they are not able to send large amounts of material aid through the Saudi and U.S. Navy blockade of Yemen, the Iranians sent blueprints and a few engineers and the Ansar Allah have been building them in Yemen.

turcopolier , 17 September 2019 at 08:19 AM
Robert Waddell

So, the sheaf of attacks on those tanks was from due west to east?

Dave Good , 17 September 2019 at 08:52 AM
My guess,

What looks like missile hits at identical positions on those spherical tanks are not. They are the locations of pressure relief valvaes that blew when the towers hit, venting gas up out and away.

JP Billen said in reply to Dave Good... , 17 September 2019 at 10:39 AM
I am in full agreement with your assessment Dave. I don't see any penetrations on those 11 spherical tanks. Look at the complete devastation on the three smaller spherical pressure tanks.

Unless we get higher resolution pics that definitely show those tanks were pierced there is no way I am going to believe those tiny scorch marks are UAV or missile hits. Much too symmetrical! No amount of geometrical explaining of drone tracks will account for that symmetry.

Fourth and Long -> JP Billen... , 17 September 2019 at 12:36 PM
Yes indeed. Dave deserves hearty congratulations though we might add a caveat. The said "valves" could have been blown out in advance via software or person throwing a switch (humint or cyber component to one attack vector). Yes, tremors or shakes triggering sensor which blows valve is possible, I suppose. But the thing that had me up at night was the nagging sense that this was a prearranged message of sorts.

It cries out "sure, it's bad, but it is reversible." So I had been wondering about invitation for pow-wows given UN upcoming meeting in NY. I'm tending to lean toward an advance blowout rather than blowout in reaction to stress. Why damage such delicate, custom equipment as those beautiful tanks? As you say, it has to be something intrinsic/internal to the construction of the tanks. So - before or after remains to be discussed. Assuming the pics are legitimate. But that's why I thought especially there was a subtle message sent. If they are legit - see above. If not legit - then it is howling reversibility or caution at the very least.

Fourth and Long -> Dave Good... , 17 September 2019 at 11:42 AM
Tend to agree. With hat tip and high five.
JP Billen said in reply to turcopolier ... , 17 September 2019 at 11:36 AM
The processor trains are a linear series of stabilizer columns that help separate the sour hydrogen sulfide gas from the crude oil. They are at the heart of the process and probably the highest value target. They are to the left of the 11 pressure tanks in the pictures shown, or perhaps just NNW of those tanks.
turcopolier , 17 September 2019 at 09:49 AM
TTG

I buy the idea of HUMINT assets having collected target informatoin but the idea of mini-strobes, etc. seems to me to be too difficult to do given the separation of the missile force and the HUMINT assets. Very hard to coordinate.

Harper , 17 September 2019 at 11:04 AM
Houthis have every reason to utilize their advanced weapons systems against Saudi targets to bring the war to an end. As for Iran, seems they have been on a semi-successful diplomatic campaign to counter US maximum pressure with their own maximum pressure on Europeans, Russia and China to deliver on the economic benefits that are as important in JCPOA as the curtailing of Iran's nuclear program.

Trump talking about meeting Rouhani in New York, Zarif in China getting at least $50-100 billion in pledged economic support, Russia suggesting $10 billion investment in the Iranian energy sector: Why would Iran at this moment make a direct move to turn the world fully against them? Perhaps a rogue faction of IRGC out to stop any diplomatic action, but even that would have to come with OK from Khamenei--or there would be strong action against the rogues.

Pressure on Trump to maintain the hardline against Iran following Bolton ouster? Pompeo has been leading the diplomatic back channels and repeating Trump's goal of forcing Iran to the table. Even the Saudis are for the moment hesitant to blame Iran, actually calling for a UN investigation into the source of the attacks.

glupi , 17 September 2019 at 11:13 AM
The key question of JohnH - "Qui bono?"

1) other suppliers

2) a general redirection of attention is achieved from 2 points:

- from Syria

In the issue of National Geographic Bulgaria of 04.2019, April 2019 number 4 (162),on p.29 there is a map of the migratory route of a bird - Ethiopia, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Turkey, Bulgaria. BUT the name of Syria is missing, just an empty space within its current borders.

Maybe, I sincerely hope not, it was just a part of a campaign of mass indoctrination - the "former Syria" to be divided between neighbors with a US military base here and there or to turn onto a No Man's land of lawlessness right there, flanking the EU, Russia's Muslim areas, China's silk road etc

"The Iran did it" narrative as an attempt to keep on undermining the pro-Syrian government coalition.

- from the temptation to mix with West's "rivals" internal issues

A strange coincidence that there was such a recent burst of "opposition" activity first in Russia, then in China. The velvet revolution recipe of the Arabian spring, Ukraine, etc (if it was such) didn't quite work however.

And the "empires strike back" - subtly and not so subtly. China offers for the London stock exchange (let's not forget that the Chinese take-over of the London metal exchange went without a fuss). Saudi Arabia next. Maybe the message is "Just stay out of your ex-colonies"

JamesT , 17 September 2019 at 12:06 PM
Richard Gill, managing director of the UK company Drone Defence: "But [drone defence is] military-grade technology and it's massively expensive. To install a defensive system is extremely complex and the threat is evolving at such a rate that it's very hard to keep up to date, because the adversaries change the type of technology they use in a way that almost renders the defence moot."

From related article on FT: https://www.ft.com/content/f2a73b40-d920-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17

[Sep 17, 2019] Locked-And-Loaded For War With Iran Is Bolton's Soul Living On by Patrick Buchanan

Notable quotes:
"... Authored by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org, ..."
"... "Iran has launched an unprecedented attack on the world's energy supply," ..."
"... "There is no evidence the attacks came from Yemen." ..."
"... The War Party is giddy with excitement over the prospect of war with Iran, while the nation does not want another war. ..."
Sep 17, 2019 | www.zerohedge.com

09/17/2019

Authored by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

"Iran has launched an unprecedented attack on the world's energy supply," declared Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Putting America's credibility on the line, Pompeo accused Iran of carrying out the devastating attack on Saudi oil facilities that halted half of the kingdom's oil production, 5.7 million barrels a day.

On Sunday, President Donald Trump did not identify Iran as the attacking nation, but did appear, in a tweet, to back up the secretary of state:

"There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom (of Saudi Arabia) as to who they believe was the cause of this attack and under what terms we would proceed!"

Yemen's Houthi rebels, who have been fighting Saudi Arabia for four years and have used drones to strike Saudi airport and oil facilities, claim they fired 10 drones from 500 kilometers away to carry out the strikes in retaliation for Saudi air and missile attacks.

Pompeo dismissed their claim, "There is no evidence the attacks came from Yemen."

But while the Houthis claim credit, Iran denies all responsibility.

Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif says of Pompeo's charge, that the U.S. has simply replaced a policy of "maximum pressure" with a policy of "maximum deceit." Tehran is calling us liars.

And, indeed, a direct assault on Saudi Arabia by Iran, a Pearl Harbor-type surprise attack on the Saudis' crucial oil production facility, would be an act of war requiring Saudi retaliation, leading to a Persian Gulf war in which the United States could be forced to participate.

Tehran being behind Saturday's strike would contradict Iranian policy since the U.S. pulled out of the nuclear deal. That policy has been to avoid a military clash with the United States and pursue a measured response to tightening American sanctions.

U.S. and Saudi officials are investigating the sites of the attacks, the oil production facility at Abqaiq and the Khurais oil field.

According to U.S. sources, 17 missiles or drones were fired, not the 10 the Houthis claim, and cruise missiles may have been used. Some targets were hit on the west-northwest facing sides, which suggests they were fired from the north, from Iran or Iraq.

But according to The New York Times, some targets were hit on the west side, pointing away from Iraq or Iraq as the source. But as some projectiles did not explode and fragments of those that did explode are identifiable, establishing the likely source of the attacks should be only a matter of time. It is here that the rubber meets the road.

Given Pompeo's public accusation that Iran was behind the attack, a Trump meeting with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani at the U.N. General Assembly's annual gathering next week may be a dead letter.

The real question now is what do the Americans do when the source of the attack is known and the call for a commensurate response is put directly to our "locked-and-loaded" president.

If the perpetrators were the Houthis, how would Trump respond?

For the Houthis, who are native to Yemen and whose country has been attacked by the Saudis for four years, would, under the rules of war, seem to be entitled to launch attacks on the country attacking them.

Indeed, Congress has repeatedly sought to have Trump terminate U.S. support of the Saudi war in Yemen.

If the attack on the Saudi oil field and oil facility at Abqaiq proves to be the work of Shiite militia from inside Iraq, would the United States attack that militia whose numbers in Iraq have been estimated as high as 150,000 fighters, as compared with our 5,000 troops in-country?

What about Iran itself?

If a dozen drones or missiles can do the kind of damage to the world economy as did those fired on Saturday -- shutting down about 6% of world oil production -- imagine what a U.S.-Iran-Saudi war would do to the world economy.

In recent decades, the U.S. has sold the Saudis hundreds of billions of dollars of military equipment. Did our weapons sales carry a guarantee that we will also come and fight alongside the kingdom if it gets into a war with its neighbors?

Before Trump orders any strike on Iran, would he go to Congress for authorization for his act of war?

Sen. Lindsey Graham is already urging an attack on Iran's oil refineries to "break the regime's back," while Sen. Rand Paul contends that "there's no reason the superpower of the United States needs to be getting into bombing mainland Iran."

Divided again: The War Party is giddy with excitement over the prospect of war with Iran, while the nation does not want another war.

How we avoid it, however, is becoming difficult to see.

John Bolton may be gone from the West Wing, but his soul is marching on.

[Sep 17, 2019] Saudi claim capacity back soon.

Sep 17, 2019 | economistsview.typepad.com

ilsm -> ilsm... , September 17, 2019 at 09:00 AM

Saudi claim capacity back soon.

WTI (oil) fall back, a bit.

Small, precise bombs do small precise damage which is mostly easy to fix.... sort of like US in Vietnam doing large imprecise bombing doing in consequential damage outside of the selling by the US airplane builders.

If the attack was "low flying cruise missiles" from a land site somewhere near Kuwait..... someone near Kuwait is technically very sophisticated.

Paine -> ilsm... , September 17, 2019 at 09:06 AM
Let us hope the sophistication of technique is match by sophistication of strategy

So far so good

Point made and well made

House of said your nuts are exposed

[Sep 17, 2019] KSA ties with Isreal might hurt KSA USA relations in the long run

Notable quotes:
"... I guess America does not need Saudi oil any more, cause it looks like Israel is about to be made king of the Oil Kingdoms in the middle east.? ..."
Sep 17, 2019 | www.unz.com

sally , says: September 17, 2019 at 12:19 pm GMT

I think you are correct there maybe many Americans in the USA.. It may take the few Americans who have been allowed to see the big picture at the USA...

I guess America does not need Saudi oil any more, cause it looks like Israel is about to be made king of the Oil Kingdoms in the middle east.?

[Sep 17, 2019] Yemeni Houti Rebels Drones wipe out 50% of Saudi Arabia's oil production

Notable quotes:
"... USA has been doing nearly everything in the Yemen war except pilot the planes. That Yemen can sneak some drones into sensitive Saudi areas would seem to raise some questions... ..."
"... Strategically what this means is that after wantonly bombing and attacking woefully poor Yemen for years, rich Saudi Arabia is not capable of protecting almost the entire source of its wealth. ..."
Sep 17, 2019 | economistsview.typepad.com

im1dc , September 16, 2019 at 04:59 AM

It's Monday September 16th, 2019 and the weeks starts off like this:

GM's UAW Strike

Yemeni Houti Rebels Drones wipe out 50% of Saudi Arabia's oil production

Trump tweets in response is "locked and loaded" implying a new US war in the ME

One of Trump's White House flunky's declared "it is better if Trump does not study an issue" before making decisions (oh yea,"Stupid is what Stupid does")

Biden and S. Warren tied in the DEM race for 2020

Piketty's new Economics tome is out

PM Netanyahu is losing his re-election bid in Israel, to be determined by tomorrow's Election

We live in interesting times...

...the question I pose for the times is 'Are the People are better lead by businessmen, politicians, academics, or intellectuals?

im1dc -> im1dc... , September 16, 2019 at 05:01 AM
Personally, I choose to be lead by people that do the right thing long term for the People, not the most politically expedient or the one that makes the most money in the short run or the smartest, etc.
ilsm -> im1dc... , September 16, 2019 at 06:29 AM
The biggest damage from

"Yemeni Houti Rebels Drones wipe out 50% of Saudi Arabia's oil production"

is the ARAMCO IPO.

"Trump tweets in response is "locked and loaded" implying a new US war in the ME"

Send Pompeo to the UN...... looks like yellow cake to me.

point -> ilsm... , September 16, 2019 at 06:44 AM
USA has been doing nearly everything in the Yemen war except pilot the planes. That Yemen can sneak some drones into sensitive Saudi areas would seem to raise some questions about USA capability. Have not yet seen any press questions in that direction.
anne -> point... , September 16, 2019 at 07:25 AM
USA has been doing nearly everything in the Yemen war except pilot the planes. That Yemen can sneak some drones into sensitive Saudi areas would seem to raise some questions...

[ Really important. ]

anne -> point... , September 16, 2019 at 08:55 AM
Strategically what this means is that after wantonly bombing and attacking woefully poor Yemen for years, rich Saudi Arabia is not capable of protecting almost the entire source of its wealth.

[Sep 16, 2019] The attack seemed to have involved not only Houti drones (already build with help from Iran), but also Iranian backed forces in Iraq, AND pro Iranian forces in Saudi Arabia itself. And maybe even other actors.

Sep 16, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

dh-mtl , Sep 15 2019 15:58 utc | 3

b,

The Americans have gotten themselves in a real bind with their maximum pressure campaign on Iran. This latest attack on Saudi Arabia's oil production looks like an escalation of the previous attacks on shipping and the spy drone. It is not evident how the Americans can respond to this latest attack.

As I see it their options are:

1. To let KSA respond to the Houthi attack and continue with their campaign to shut down Iranian oil production, without any direct U.S. response to the attack. However this will achieve nothing, as next month Iran will up pressure again with another attack on Middle-East oil assets, and we'll be back to the same place.

2. To bomb Iran's oil industry, as Pompeo and Graham suggest. However this risks blowing up the whole Middle East, as well as the World's oil market and their own (Western) economies.

3. Forget about Iran and move the fight to maintain U.S. global hegemony to another front: back to Venezuela? Serbia? Hong Kong? Taiwan? However the end result of such a move would more than likely be another humuliating defeat for the U.S.

4. Do as Stephen Wertheim / New York Times suggest and sue for peace. This will end the dream of U.S. World dominance, Globalization and the current western based financial system. The U.S. will become no more than a heavily indebted regional power in a 'Multi-polar World Order' led by China and Russia.

As I see it, the U.S. is out of options to continue their war for global dominance. #4 is the only viable option. But, as one author argued in a recent paper (I don't have the reference), wars continue long after the victor is clear, because the loser can't admit defeat (at heavy additional costs to the loser). I think that this is the position that the U.S. finds itself in now.


DontBelieveEitherPr. , Sep 15 2019 16:21 utc | 4

What the attack on Saudi oil infrastructure shows us, is that now Iran has united her proxys into one united front.

While they were cautious to not leave evidence of their involvment with the Houtis before, they now are putting their support more and more into the open.

The attack seemed to have involved not only Houti drones (already build with help from Iran), but also Iranian backed forces in Iraq, AND pro Iranian forces in Saudi Arabia itself. And maybe even other actors.

This is a major new development. Not only for the war on Yemen, but also in the context of Iran providing a credile detterence against US+Saudi aggression.
They excalated with increasing levels, and one wonders, what could top this last attack off.

And i am pretty sure, we will find out sooner rather than later.

Don Bacon , Sep 15 2019 20:13 utc | 29
@ 27
WaPo: Abqaiq . .damaged on the west-northwest sides
That's it! It was Hezbollah for sure. (not)

Actually there were two targets, the Buqaiq (Abqaiq) oil processing plant and the Khurais oil field, both in the Eastern Province.

These attacks are not the first -- from longwarjournal:

Last month, the Houthis claimed another drone operation against Saudi's Shaybah oil field near the United Arab Emirates. At more than 1,000 miles away from it's Yemen territory, that strike marked one of the Houthis farthest claimed attacks.
The Houthis also claimed a drone strike on the Abu Dhabi airport last year, but that has been denied by Emirati officials.
Additionally, a drone strike on Saudi's East-West oil pipeline near Riyadh earlier this year, which the Houthis claimed responsibility, was allegedly conducted by Iranian-backed Iraqi militants. If accurate, that means the Houthi claim of responsibility acted as a type of diplomatic cover for the Iraqi militants.
Since beginning its drone program last year, the Houthis have launched at least 103 drone strikes in Yemen and Saudi Arabia according to data compiled by FDD's Long War Journal. . . here . . .and more here .
Hercules , Sep 15 2019 21:27 utc | 35
Really appreciated the write up on the Houthis attack.
Sounds like the attack left substantial damage. Another bigger issue underlying all of this, aside from Saudi inability to get what it wants now from it's IPO, is the fact that the US Patriots did not detect this attack.
The Saudis spent billions last year on this defense system. Sounds like the clown Prince better give Russians a call about their S-400.
But the US wouldn't appreciate that much, would they?

[Sep 16, 2019] Oil Explodes 20% Higher, Biggest Jump On Record

Sep 16, 2019 | www.zerohedge.com

As Bloomberg notes, "for oil markets, it's the single worst sudden disruption ever, surpassing the loss of Kuwaiti and Iraqi petroleum supply in August 1990, when Saddam Hussein invaded his neighbor. It also exceeds the loss of Iranian oil output in 1979 during the Islamic Revolution, according to data from the U.S. Department of Energy."

Furthermore, in light of news that the Saudi outage could last for months , this could be just the start. As a reminder, according to Morningstar research director, Sandy Fielden, "Brent could go to $80 tomorrow, while WTI could go to $75... But that would depend on Aramco's 48-hour update. The supply problem won't be clear right away since the Saudis can still deliver from inventory."

Of course, should Aramco confirm that the outage - which has taken some 5.7mmb/d in Saudi output after 10 drones struck the world's biggest crude-processing facility in Abqaiq and the kingdom's second-biggest oil field in Khurais - will last for weeks, expect the crude juggernaut to continue until the price hits $80, and keeps moving higher. Finally, here is the price summary from Goldman commodity strategist Damien Courvalin, who earlier today laid out four possible shutdown scenarios, and the price oil could hit for each:

What are the broader implications from this move? According to Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Copenhagen, "the global economy can ill afford higher oil prices at a time of economic slowdown." But Peter Boockvar's hot take may be the best one.

camfree , 26 minutes ago link

Bibi is desperate for war with Iran to avoid election defeat and prison and Bolton is fired/resigns only to predict "Iranian deception" on the way out the door. This is obviously another Mossad/CIA/Saudi false flag on the anniversity of 9/11 to serve multiple interests: Bibi's re-election, the central bankers, the MIC's aspirations for war with Iran & Trump has an economic scapegoat ensuring a free pass for 2020.

[Sep 14, 2019] Oil To Hit $100 Pompeo Blames Iran For Unprecedented Drone Attack That Crippled Largest Saudi Oil Processing Facility

Sep 14, 2019 | www.zerohedge.com

Update 2 : In a sharp, if perhaps not unexpected, escalation, US Secretary of State - now without John Bolton by his side - tweeted at 4pm on Saturday, that contrary to earlier reports, "there is no evidence the attacks came from Yemen" and instead accused Iran of launching today's "unprecedented attack on the world's energy supply" which has now indefinitely taken offline as much as 5mmb/d in Saudi crude production.

In a follow up tweet, Pompeo said that he calls "on all nations to publicly and unequivocally condemn Iran's attacks" which is odd as not even Saudi Arabia accused Iran of today's aggression (which many speculated could have been a Saudi false flag in hopes of sending the price of oil soaring ahead of the Aramco IPO). Pompeo concluded that "the United States will work with our partners and allies to ensure that energy markets remain well supplied and Iran is held accountable for its aggression."

Will this pivot away from Houthis to Iran as the "origin" of the attack be sufficient grounds to re-inflame tensions between the US and Iran, especially following last week's news that one of the reasons Bolton was fired was due to his hard-line stance on Iran even as Trump was willing to sit down with the Tehran regime for negotiations. Since the deep state stands to make much more money from war rather than peace, our guess is that the answer is a resounding "yes." Update: The WSJ is out with an update hinting at just how much the price of oil is set to soar when trading reopens late on Sunday after the Saudi Houthi false-flag drone attack on the largest Saudi oil processing plant:

Saudi Arabia is shutting down about half of its oil output after apparently coordinated drone strikes hit Saudi production facilities, people familiar with the matter said, in what Yemen's Houthi rebels described as one of their largest-ever attacks inside the kingdom.

The production shutdown amounts to a loss of about five million barrels a day , the people said, roughly 5% of the world's daily production of crude oil . The kingdom produces 9.8 million barrels a day.

And while Aramco is assuring it can restore output quickly, in case it can't the world is looking at a production shortfall of as much as 150MM barrels monthly, which - all else equal - could send oil soaring into the triple digits. Just what the Aramco IPO ordered.

What appears to be the most devastating Yemen Houthi rebel attack on Saudi Arabia to date, took place overnight on the world's largest oil processing facility as stunning videos emerged of massive explosions rocking the major Aramco Buqyaq facility .

Fires burned into the morning daylight hours, with explosions also reported at the Khurais oil field, in what the Houthis said was a successful attack involving ten drones . "These attacks are our right, and we warn the Saudis that our targets will keep expanding," a rebel military spokesman said on Houthi-operated Al Masirah TV .

Saudi authorities -- initially slow or reluctant to identify the cause of the major blaze -- on Saturday issued a confirmation via the Saudi Press Agency: "At 4.00am (01:00 GMT) the industrial security teams of Aramco started dealing with fires at two of its facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais as a result of... drones," an interior ministry statement said , which further claimed the fires were "under control" .

However, the Saudis have stopped short of acknowledging the Houthis were behind the attack, which Riyadh is also likely to blame on Iran , which has lately promised that if it can't export its oil then "no one will".

It remains unclear according to early statements whether there were injuries or casualties in the twin oil facility attacks.

The impact on global oil markets - closed for the weekend - could be significant given the Khurais field produces about 1% of all the world's oil (estimated at over 1M bpd and reserves of over 20BN bpd) and more importantly Abqaiq, which based on the stunning local footage bore the brunt of the drone attacks, remains the most crucial of the kingdom's processing plants.

Located 37 miles southwest of Aramco's Dhahran headquarters, it controls all the flows from fields like the giant Ghawar field to coastal export terminals like Ras Tanura. Saudi Aramco describes the Buqyaq facility as "the largest crude oil stabilization plant in the world."

Meanwhile, the United States was quick to "strongly condemn" the attack amid already soaring tensions in the gulf after a summer of "tanker wars" and Iranian threats of walking away altogether from the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA).

The U.S. envoy to Saudi Arabia issued a statement saying , "The U.S. strongly condemns today's drone attacks against oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais. These attacks against critical infrastructure endanger civilians, are unacceptable, and sooner or later will result in innocent lives being lost."

According to Reuters reports the drone attacks will impact up to 5 million bpd of oil production, which suggests that the price of oil - already severely depressed by the recent news that John Bolton is out, making de-escalation with Iran far more likely - is set to soar when trading reopens late on Sunday, just what the upcoming Aramco IPO desperately needs , which in turn has prompted some to wonder if the "Yemen" attack on Saudi Arabia wasn't in fact orchestrated by Saudi interests. 18 years after Sept 11, this shouldn't sound all that outlandish...


funkyfreddy , 47 seconds ago link

What price does American shale need it to be to make a profit?

Ms No , 1 minute ago link

The Sauds lie about everything. Right now they appear to be minimizing it.

Thordoom , 2 minutes ago link

The houthis also said that this operation was coordinated with a cell that is inside of Saudi Arabia.

The already paranoid saudis idiots must be now completely out of their minds.

If it is not false flag they must be shitting them self.

The whole f..king arab world must be laughing and worshiping Houthis right now.

This is what happens when you get in bet with Israel and US.

holycrap , 5 minutes ago link

Oil companies want higher prices. Israel wants US to war with Iran. Jews want Bolt-on to be proven right. Hmm, how can we get all those things with one shot. Oy-vey, I have an idea.

herbivore , 8 minutes ago link

If the U.S. attacks Iran, it will only raise oil prices even more. If the Houthis have the ability to destroy Saudi oil infrastructure, then Iran has the ability to wipe it out for years to come. How can the U.S. protect Saudi oil production? If there was a simple way to do it, you'd think it would have already been implemented. It's looking like Iran wasn't kidding when they said if they can't sell their oil then neither will the Saudis.

Thordoom , 7 minutes ago link

So the mighty US MIC was not able to even detect sandals wearing Houthis fighter's drones and missile?

It is either terrible and unbelievably embarrassing event for US military industrial complex or it is false flag to escalate tensions with Iran.

Kinskian , 9 minutes ago link

No comment yet from our Commander in Tweets? $100 oil should get a market crash going.

funkyfreddy , 4 minutes ago link

$100 oil might get people more interested in electric vehicles that all manufacturers have been forced to invest billions in that the public dont want.

Einstein101 , 12 minutes ago link

What appears to be the most devastating Yemen Houthi rebel attack on Saudi Arabia to date

What is missing from that article is the fact that actually this attack was not performed by the Houthi rebels themselves, and not from Yemen. This attack was actually performed by another Iranian proxy, the PMU, and the drones were sent into Saudi Arabia's territory from Iraq, North West of the country, not from Yemen.

This just underscores the way Iran's ring of proxy terror militias are all connected and acts in tandem under the control of Iran,

Out of its twisted interpretation of Islam's Quran, Iran's mission is to bring about a regime change to moderate Islamic countries (including allies of the US), forcing them into its extremist, US hateful, Shia Islam. The way they do it is by arming and financing terrorist proxy militias in various regions, spreading death and destruction. Iran arms and finances the Houthis in Yemen, The Islamic Jihad in Gazza, Hashd Al-Shaabi in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Fatemeyoun Brigades in Syria, various terrorist groups in Africa, and more.

Iran has perfected the art of gradually conquering a country without replacing its flag by planting cancer cells in the form of terror proxy militias.

Meet the Proxies: How Iran Spreads Its Empire through Terrorist Militias

Iran spends billions of Dollars on those militias, at the expense of the well being of common Iranian people. All this money is deprived from their own people, cutting food and gas subsidies. Iran has abundance of oil reserves but a large chunk of the oil revenues goes to support insurgent groups in other countries while Iran's citizens live in misery and hunger. Heck, just on Lebanon's Hezbollah, Iran spends one Billion Dollars each year.

Iran's aim is to directly hurt our national interests by turning friendly Muslim countries against the US. Iran is not shy of demonstrating its hatred to the US. Iran states openly, and with great force, "Death to America!" They burn American flags in their parliament.

Iranian Lawmakers Burn U.S. Flag In Parliament

Iran's regime despises our Western free democratic society and strives to impose on all of us their dark extremist Islamic Sharia law.

Iranian women & girls as young as 9 who don't wear hijab face jail

Meatballs , 11 minutes ago link

Pompeo is a FAT STOOGE. Bibi is playing here. ******* psychos.

[Sep 14, 2019] $100 Oil Drone Strikes Halt Half Of Saudi Crude Production

Sep 14, 2019 | finance.yahoo.com

Half of Saudi Arabia's oil production has gone offline following a surprise drone strike.

Drones attacked Abqaiq facility in Saudi Arabia and the Khurais oil field run by Saudi Aramco early Saturday morning, the kingdom's interior ministry said , sparking a massive fire at a crude processing plant essential to global oil supplies.

The closure will impact nearly 5 million barrels of crude processing per day , affecting 5 percent of the world's daily oil production. And while Aramco is confident that it can recover quickly, if it can't, however, the world could face a production shortage of as much 150MM barrels per month. An outcome which could send oil prices into the triple digits.

Krishnan Viswanathan @kxviswan123

Supply loss from KSA may be as high as 150 MM barrels/month. Oil may hit $100.

33 11:15 AM - Sep 14, 2019 Twitter Ads info and privacy
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Houthi rebels-- who are backed by Iran in a yearlong Saudi-led battle in Yemen-- have apparently asserted responsibility for the strikes and pledged that more assaults can be expected in the future.

A Houthi spokesperson explained, "We promise the Saudi regime that our future operations will expand and be more painful as long as its aggression and siege continue," adding that the attack involved ten drones.

The Iran-backed Houthis have recently been behind a number of assaults on Saudi pipelines, vessels and other energy infrastructure as tensions grow in the region.

Related: Yergin: Expect Extreme Volatility In Oil Markets

There have been no details on the severity of the damage but Agence France-Presse quoted interior ministry spokesperson Mansour al-Turki as saying that there were no human casualties as a result of the attack.

Ahmed Alsalman @AAlsalman91

# Buqayq city view as # Aramco facilities burn. Very likely to be an attack of some sort as gunshots are also heard. # SaudiArabia # Saudi # arabtwitter

44 11:26 PM - Sep 13, 2019 Twitter Ads info and privacy
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More Attacks To Come?

This latest strike highlights the risk posed by the Houthis to Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure as tensions between the groups continues to escalate.

The growing power of the Houthis' drone operations is likely to reignite the debate on where the militant group is securing these weapons. It could very well be that the group has weaponized noncombatant drones, or in a darker scenario, they are receiving the militarized drones from Iran.

A Saudi-led coalition has been at war with the Houthi movement in Yemen since March 2015. The Iranian-backed rebels hold the funding, Sana'a, and other areas in the Arab world's most impoverished nation.

The battle has created one of the world's worst humanitarian crisis. The violence has pressed Yemeni citizens to the brink of starvation. And the death toll has soared to more than 90,000 individuals since 2015, according to the US-based Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, which tracks the conflict.

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

IHS Markit: US Natural Gas Prices To Fall To 50-Year Low
The US Massively Underestimates The Trade War Blowback
European Carmakers Face Perfect Storm

Read this article on OilPrice.com

[Sep 14, 2019] Attack on Saudi Oil Plant Is What Everyone Feared Oil Strategy

Sep 14, 2019 | finance.yahoo.com

(Bloomberg) -- Middle East geopolitics have come back with a vengeance to hit the oil market. What everybody feared has happened. An attack has penetrated the defenses of Saudi Arabia's massive Abqaiq oil processing facility, the heart of the kingdom's oil production and export infrastructure, causing an unknown amount of damage. Crude prices will react and emergency stockpiles will be tapped.

Fires at the plant were brought under control within hours, but the flow of crude from Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest exporter, will almost certainly be affected, although we don't yet know by how much or for how long. Traders who have shrugged off tensions in the Middle East for months will respond to this attack when markets open on Monday.

The height of the price spike will depend on how much we know about the extent of the damage and how long it will take to repair. An absence of information will lead traders to assume the worst.

The Abqaiq crude processing plant is the single most important facility in the Saudi oil sector. In 2018 it processed about half of the kingdom's crude oil production, according to a prospectus published in May for the state oil company's first international bond. That's roughly 5 million barrels a day, or one in every 20 barrels of oil used worldwide.

Abqaiq is more important to the Saudi oil sector than the kingdom's Persian Gulf export terminals at Ras Tanura and Ju'aymah, or the Strait of Hormuz that links the Gulf to the Indian Ocean and the high seas. Crude can be diverted away from the Persian Gulf and Hormuz by pumping it across the country to the Red Sea through the East-West oil pipeline. But it cannot bypass Abqaiq. The East-West pipeline starts at Abqaiq and output from the giant Ghawar, Shaybah and Khurais fields is all processed there, so an attack on the facility will impact crude flows to export terminals on both coasts.

The latest attack comes just months after drones, allegedly launched from Iraq by Yemen's Houthi rebels, targeted pumping stations on the oil pipeline. The damage caused by that earlier attack was minimal, but highlighted the vulnerability of Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, even when located hundreds of miles from the country's borders.

So what happens now?

Saudi Arabia will probably seek to maintain export levels as much as possible by supplying customers from stockpiles. It holds crude in storage tanks in the kingdom, as well as at sites in Egypt, Japan and the Netherlands. But it has been running its crude hoard down since the beginning of 2016 and it is now back at levels not seen since 2008, according to data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative. That means the kingdom has much less to draw on than it did three years ago.

The attack will also test stockpiles in oil-consuming countries. Members of the International Energy Agency are required to hold 90 days' worth of oil imports in emergency stocks and those will be pressed into service if the outage at Abqaiq is prolonged. Non-member countries like China and India have also been building up their own emergency reserves. Those, too, will be pressed into service.

Neighboring countries who, just days ago, were being exhorted to stick to output quotas agreed in December will now pump as much as they can to make up for any losses from Saudi Arabia. The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq will all boost output as much as they are able. But the one country with lots of spare capacity, Iran, won't see any easing of the restrictions placed on its oil sales by the U.S. Quite the opposite. Its support for the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have claimed responsibility for the attack on Abqaiq, will ensure that any easing of the pressure being exerted on it remains a distant prospect.

To contact the reporter on this story: Julian Lee in London at [email protected]

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alaric Nightingale at [email protected], Steve Geimann

[Sep 07, 2019] Oil producers and their suppliers are cutting budgets, staffs and production goals amid a growing consensus of forecasts that oil and gas prices will stay low for several years.

Sep 07, 2019 | economistsview.typepad.com

Joe , September 06, 2019 at 03:36 AM

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oil-slump/u-s-shale-firms-cut-budgets-staff-as-oil-price-outlook-dims-idUSKCN1VR15P

ODESSA, Texas (Reuters) - Oil producers and their suppliers are cutting budgets, staffs and production goals amid a growing consensus of forecasts that oil and gas prices will stay low for several years.
---

Debt deflation. The interest charges they pay derived from the period between 2010 and 2014 when opil prices remained in the $80 range. The oil companies were relying on bad theory.

What about 'inflation' are things getting bigger? Let me pick a price index, say CPI, and compare that to oil prices. (click,click.. the sound of me doing a Fred graph).

There bingo, CPI generally tracks oil, mainly because of something called entropy makes energy a part of everything. The CPI eventually reverts to oil index. But oil has not really changed in price much since 2015, while CPI kept on rising. So expect a large dose of debt deflation.

[Sep 02, 2019] The 2008 oil price shock was a warning. Where are we 10 years later? Are we on a path away from oil?

Essentially we hybrids you can cut consumption in half for personal transportations. That's a lot of oil saved. Also hybrids have much smaller battery then EV and as such use it more efficiently.
Sep 02, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Matt Mushalik x Ignored says: 09/01/2019 at 3:47 am

(1) Oil fired power plants were phased out after the 1st (US peak 1970 allowed OPEC to impose embargo) and 2nd oil crisis (peak oil in Iran 1975) not because of a planned, voluntary transition
(2) Hirsch's slow mitigation. The 2008 oil price shock was a warning. Where are we 10 years later? Are we on a path away from oil?
(3) EV maintenance cost must include replacement batteries in the car and in your garage (to store power from solar panels – drive less in winter). The inverter for my solar panels lasted only 5 years
(4) EV s recharged from grid are mainly coal power driven
(5) The era of cheap, easy oil ended in the early 2000s (when the North Sea peaked), before the Iraq war

16/3/2013
Iraq war and its aftermath failed to stop the beginning of peak oil in 2005
http://crudeoilpeak.info/iraq-war-and-its-aftermath-failed-to-stop-the-beginning-of-peak-oil-in-2005

Hickory x Ignored says: 09/01/2019 at 11:34 am
"EV s recharged from grid are mainly coal power driven"

Not in the USA, where coal makes up less than 25% of electricity generating capacity, down from 40% in less than 10 years (primarily due to replacement with tight nat gas production).

And some states, like the biggest in the country, get less than 5% electricity from coal, imported from neighboring states via the grid.

[Aug 22, 2019] Attacks of Saudi infrastructure will continue: Houthi drone is mounted with a 30kg warhead and it is flown into the target, usually in a swarm attack.

Aug 22, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Hightrekker

x Ignored says: 08/17/2019 at 11:16 am
Yemen rebel drone attack targets remote Saudi oil field

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/article234108062.html

Things are getting even more interesting.

Tom Wilson x Ignored says: 08/17/2019 at 11:49 pm
This attack was 750 miles from Houthi territory.
Round trip would be 1,500 miles.
A Predator has a published range of 1,150 miles.
My guess is they are infiltrating Saudi Arabia, attacking from much closer than 750 miles out and maybe sacrificing the drone. Sort of like the Jimmy Doolittle raid on Tokyo in WWII, for similar purpose. With a similar result. Message sent, message received.
Hightrekker x Ignored says: 08/18/2019 at 9:11 am
You know more than I do.
Sounds reasonable.
Survivalist x Ignored says: 08/18/2019 at 10:55 am
It's a one way trip. The drones used by houthis don't fire a missile and then fly home, they are the missile. The drone is mounted with a 30kg warhead and it is flown into the target, usually in a swarm attack.

https://www.defensenews.com/unmanned/2019/05/21/how-yemens-rebels-increasingly-deploy-drones/

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/HESA_Ababil

Hightrekker x Ignored says: 08/18/2019 at 11:01 am
Thats was my understanding also --

[Aug 22, 2019] Chaotic Unpredictable Iran Vows Oil Routes Won't Be Safe If It Can't Export

Aug 22, 2019 | www.zerohedge.com

The White House policy of taking Iranian oil exports to "zero" still has a long way to go, thanks in no small part to China , and also despite Pompeo touting this week that US sanctions have removed nearly 2.7 million barrels of Iranian oil from global markets.

US frustration was evident upon the release of the Adrian Darya 1, with Gibraltar resisting Washington pressures to hand over the Iranian vessel, given as its en route to Greece, American officials are now warning that they will sanction anyone who touches the tanker .

Seizing on Washington's frustration as part of its own "counter-pressure" campaign of recent weeks, Iran has again stated if it can't export its own oil, it will make waterways unsafe and "unpredictable" for anyone else to to so .

[Aug 22, 2019] Trump energy policy is sanctions, regime change and more regime change

Aug 22, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Longtimber x Ignored says: 08/17/2019 at 8:35 am

It appears that the US (25% of global oil consumption/waste?) has but 3 choices. 1. Become Trading partners with Russia and Iran. 2. Get serious on Energy Transition execution. 3. War, Terror and more regime change 4. Deploy the Alan Parsons Project.
https://youtu.be/Ei_GZnrr1nw?t=23
What say You?
Rob H x Ignored says: 08/17/2019 at 8:51 am
Usually 1 and 3 are combined in the resource rich country aren't they? Then it goes wrong some way down the road when the new regime 'turn', and things get worse than before
Tom x Ignored says: 08/17/2019 at 11:26 am
3. seems to fit the history. I don't blame anyone not patient enough to scroll down to the bottom.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_the_United_States

Watcher x Ignored says: 08/17/2019 at 11:03 am
Oh for God's sake.

Here you go, chew on this. The day there are the initial 2 mile long lines at gasoline stations, not just in the US but all over the world . . . that day we will still see announcements of record oil production globally.

This is species killing stuff. Wall Street popular saying . . . no one rings a bell at the top. Well, no one is going to give you any warning whatsoever that oil scarcity deaths start that month. You will know nothing of it. You will be told it is all from some temporary factor that will soon be fixed.

So if you see something now that looks like a warning sign, it's probably not legit.

Ron Patterson x Ignored says: 08/17/2019 at 6:58 pm
Perhaps. OPEC is producing at 2011 levels. The world is kept at bay from peak oil only by US shale production. And US shale production is on shaky legs, just trying to stay ahead of the red queen.

I just don't see this blind optimism that US shale will continue upward for the next 5 to 6 years.

I well remember when it was said that: "When Saudi Arabia peaks, the world peaks". That was just not correct. But now it is obvious that when the US of A peaks, the world peaks.

Ron Patterson x Ignored says: 08/17/2019 at 7:54 pm
Dennis, OPEC produced more oil per day in 2005 than they are producing today. OPEC peaked in 2016. End of story.

OPEC will not save the world from peak oil.

Ron Patterson x Ignored says: 08/18/2019 at 7:31 am
. Thats 3 to 4 mbod without question.

Sanctions are not affecting Venezuela's oil production. It is collapsing for another reason. And it will take them a decade or more to recover when they finally settle their economic problems.

But there will always be political problems. They are likely to get worse, not better.

Peak oil will be when the most oil is produced, not what could be produced if there were no political problems anywhere in the world.

hole in head x Ignored says: 08/18/2019 at 12:09 pm
Opec will not save the world and neither will USA . The problem is that all the increase in the last few years is from shale or LTO ,call it what you will . Problem is that this is mostly + 45 API so poor in middle distillates . In reality peak oil is when the^ black goo^ peaks . NGL's ,NGPL,s ,bio fuels, LTO and the term ^all liquids^ are used as a fig leaf to hide the real peak of the ^black goo ^ . We are past peak as far as the ^black goo^ is concerned .
Watcher x Ignored says: 08/18/2019 at 1:02 pm
The nature of the liquid is a big deal.

The bigger deal is this believing of numbers that come from people with agendas.

You're not going to get any warning. No one has any incentive to give anyone correct data.

Han Neumann x Ignored says: 08/18/2019 at 3:06 pm
"The problem is that all the increase in the last few years is from shale or LTO ,call it what you will . Problem is that this is mostly + 45 API so poor in middle distillates . "

In 2005 (!) on Bloomberg tv channel someone said, in other words, that the most valuable oil to make kerosene of is increasingly difficult to get. I guess that kerosene is a middle distillate.
The shale oil boom might last for many decades, for what it is worth

Ron Patterson x Ignored says: 08/18/2019 at 4:16 pm
The shale oil boom might last for many decades, for what it is worth.

Shale production may continue for a decade, or a bit longer, but not decades. However, that is not the point. The point is, how long can shale continue to increase production.

The legacy decline for shale varies between 5% and 6% per month! The EIA's Drilling Productivity Report says US Shale production will increase by 85,000 barrels per day in September. Probably not, but that is not the point. To get an increase of 85,000 barrels per day, they had to have new well production of 649,000 barrels per day. That is because they had 564,000 barrels per day of legacy decline. For every one barrel per day of increased production, they had to produce 7.64 barrels per day of new oil because they had 6.64 barrels per day of legacy decline.

The more they produce the more they have to produce just to stay even.

Frugal x Ignored says: 08/18/2019 at 5:29 pm
For every one barrel per day of increased production, they had to produce 7.64 barrels per day of new oil.

This is the key point regarding shale oil production. The higher the production, the more new production is needed to increase production. It's essentially an exponential function. Shale oil production will not increase for much longer because it's not physically possible to drill/frack at a sustained exponential rate.

This is the key

Ron Patterson x Ignored says: 08/18/2019 at 6:19 pm
Frugal, damn, why is that so hard for some people to understand?
Eulenspiegel x Ignored says: 08/19/2019 at 3:52 am
I don't see this exponential problem in shale.

Shale production is not oil production, it's mining.

You need 3 drilling teams, 4 fracking teams and get over long time a constant production. When you want to increase (say you have enough acres, as enough ore in a iron mine) you hire 2 new teams, as in mining employing a new excavator and conveyor belts.

So, like in a mine, when you fire a team production drops almost immediately.

The big ones (XON) in the Permian do Shale oil mining exactly like this – they have own drilling and fracking team, working constantly.

The same thing as mining is when you have to drill your b-class acres. As in a mine when the ore veins run out in thickness.

So either close your mine, hire more teams to maintain production or life with decreasing production at constant costs when the qulity is declining.

I've left out technical progress. This is just a cost reducer (need less drilling / fracking teams to do the same output).

Ron Patterson x Ignored says: 08/19/2019 at 7:59 am
Eulenspiegel, your mining example is not a good comparison at all. That is because new mines don't decline in production by 6% per month.

Here is the exponential function of shale oil. They must produce new oil at the decline rate just to stay even. Growth in production is only accomplished if they produce more oil than declined that month.

But if they do produce more oil than the decline rate, then the decline will be even higher the next month. That is, if they had to produce 649,000 barrels of new oil in September to grow production by 85,000 barrels, then to grow oil by a like amount in October, they will have to produce more than 649,000 barrels. The more they increase production each month, then the more they will have to produce the next month just to stay even.

When production increases, the monthly loss through legacy decline also increases. Therefore just producing the same increase as they did last month will not do. They must always continue to increase by more than they did last month just to stay even.

Entropy x Ignored says: 08/19/2019 at 8:43 am
As always: The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function
Eulenspiegel x Ignored says: 08/19/2019 at 10:55 am
Ron, in my opinion it is a better model than conventional oil.

In conventional oil, you can pump 20 years after drilling. For 50 you'll have to do more things like water flooding etc. So increasing production is just drilling a few more holes (and install the additional infrastructure).

In mining, you have a decline rate of 100% / day.
You send a team in, they mine 100 tons of ore in their shift, move out and production after their shift is 0.

When you want more ore, you have to send in a team next day again.

Having 1 minint team gives you constant ore / day. Firing them gives you sudden production of 0.

So with LTO you send a fracking team in to create 1 well, produce oil for a few months (I'm exaggerating) and then you have 0 production again.

So you have to send in the team again. And again.

If you use 1 team drillling constantly new holes. you'll have nearly constant production (after the first ramp up time of overlaying declining productions, in reality a few years).

Increasing production means more teams constantly drilling new holes (as in mining: drill hole, fill with explosives, boom, carry away ore, repeat).

The big question for the peak shale oil is here: How many drilling/fracking teams can be payed and supplied with anything they need for working efficient. It's not just hiring teams.

To employ more teams they need more road capacity, sand capacity, water transport, take away pipelines, more stuff you know better than me.

As in deep mining: The elevator capacity / tunnel train capacity limits the maximum possible production. For increasing production, you have to increase everything, and then hire new teams.

So the question is: How much money do they invest to stretch all these capacities.

ProPoly x Ignored says: 08/20/2019 at 12:35 pm
Well the world's conventional oil production certainly peaked a while ago. Even if one treats Venezuela and Canada as conventional because their production was usually in forecasts, the USA fracking has to be considered a separate thing. The industry cycle is different, the grade produced is different, the economics are "different." The tail is *very* different as without new drilling the entire patch would disappear in less than three years. Blap, gone to stripper wells.
HuntingtonBeach x Ignored says: 08/17/2019 at 9:26 pm
Not so fast Ron

This is the age of Trump. I know for us simpletons it makes sense the average would be production. I'm not sure how Trump would do it, but I'll bet the tangerine could make 2019 peak the best ever. A world depression followed by war.

Ron Patterson x Ignored says: 08/18/2019 at 12:30 pm
No, but OPEC + Russia + Canada, about 58% of world oil production, is down 667,000 barrels per day, April to July. I doubt that the other 42% of world oil production is up anywhere near that amount.

The 2019 7 month average for OPEC + Russia + Canada is 1,629,000 barrels per day below their 2018 average.

I have posted that chart up top, just below OPEC+ Russia.

[Aug 22, 2019] I'm astonished that completions are continuing almost regardless of the oil price but they have been.

Aug 22, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Sean x Ignored says: 08/19/2019 at 6:26 pm

So to summarise, Denis assumes completions will continue in Permian at a steady rate while Guym/ Ron assume a drop in completions.

I'm astonished that completions are continuing almost regardless of the oil price but they have been.

Is there a tipping point where oil companies suspend/ reduce drilling in the Permian until it is profitable again?

I guess only time will resolve that question.

My guess is that some companies will review their q3 operations, possibly seriously affecting production growth but what do i know?

[Aug 22, 2019] I have read the shale oil have change some character especially in 2019. It have become more light that means lower quality

Aug 22, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Freddy x Ignored says: 08/19/2019 at 11:08 am

Thanks for valuable informstion Guy, in my mind from what I have read the shail oil have change some caracter espesialy in 2019. It have become more light that means lower quality. If quality goes down this will mean less profit if any at all to drill new wells after all exspensives, loan balones are payed. The good thing is it seems now low sulfur diesel demand increase because new IMO rules and prices, refinery margins in Asia increases. But it might be this will have minor Impact for WTI price as they demand more heavey oil , brent i.e for their marine diesel..

[Aug 21, 2019] WTI Slides After Crude Inventories Drawdown Less Than Hoped

Paper oil and speculation dominate the market. After Iran oil was taken off the market the prices were just stable to lwo. Amazing.
Trump administration doubles its efforts to capture Venezuela for a reason.
Aug 21, 2019 | www.zerohedge.com

yogibear , 1 hour ago link

What Joke!!

Every day the opposite is reported.

More than expected one, next day less.

Trump wants cheap oil, so short the crap out of it.

Edward Morbius , 1 hour ago link

He wants cheap oil AND a weak dollar! Genius!

akrainer , 2 hours ago link

Every week we watch these invenstory draws/builds and every week the commentariat is out to explain how they drive the price fluctuations. Except there's -80% correlation between oil price and USD Index. Implying that events that have nothing to do with these blessed draws/builds have much greater pull on price changes... More here: " Failure of price forecasting: the unit of account conundrum "

Sunny2 , 2 hours ago link

................................................

kavabanga , 2 hours ago link

It looks like an accumulation at the time crude oil wti.
After the price will cross any border of the triangle with powerful candle we can open BUY/SELL entry. Potential profit will be in 3...5 times bigger than risk.

Element , 2 hours ago link

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way -- in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only. - Charles Dickens

Sardonicus , 2 hours ago link

Well, Duh!

Nobody is driving campers anymore

[Aug 18, 2019] US Bullies Its Way Into Dispute, Moves to Seize Iranian Tanker by Barbara Boland

Notable quotes:
"... "Designed to provoke Tehran: Just as #Iran-UK-#Gibraltar were set to have #Grace1 tanker released today, #Trump admin moves in to spoil the effort. Will become another source of tension in Europe-US relations over Iran policy," Ellie Geranmayeh, Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, tweeted . ..."
"... As TAC previously reported , the legal rationale for detaining the Iranian vessel and its crew is questionable, because Iran is not a member of the European Union and thus can not violate EU sanctions. ..."
"... "The UK had no legal right to enforce those sanctions," writes Gareth Porter, and the seizure "was a blatant violation of the clearly defined global rules that govern the passage of merchant ships through international straits." ..."
Aug 15, 2019 | www.theamericanconservative.com

British Gibraltar ordered the ship's release to ease tensions. Washington wasn't having any of it.

A ship approaches supertanker Grace 1 off the coast of Gibraltar on July 6, 2019. – Iran demanded on July 5, 2019 that Britain immediately release an oil tanker it has detained in Gibraltar, accusing it of acting at the bidding of the United States. Photo by JORGE GUERRERO / AFP) (Photo credit should read JORGE GUERRERO/AFP/Getty Images)

Despite eleventh hour efforts on the part of the U.S. to detain the Grace 1 Iranian oil tanker seized by the Royal Navy in July, the vessel was released Thursday. Gibraltar's Chief Minister said he had accepted a pledge from Iran that if the tanker was released, it would not be taken to Syria.

The Grace 1 was seized last month by the British Royal Navy for alleged European Union sanctions violations. The British claimed that Iran was using the tanker to ship oil to Syria.

Before the last minute U.S. legal action, authorities in Gibraltar had announced they would release the Grace 1 and drop legal actions against the ship's captain and crew in order to ease tensions.

The U.S. application was scheduled to be heard later on Thursday by the Gibraltar Supreme Court. The U.S. Department of Justice sought to extend the detention of the oil tanker, but the Gibraltar Supreme Court later dropped the detention order, essentially moving evaluation of the U.S. request to another government agency for consideration, according to CBS. In the mean time, the tanker is free to leave.

The U.S. filing seems to confirm reports that the U.S. urged the British detention of the Iranian ship in July.

" Having failed to accomplish its objectives through its #EconomicTerrorism -- including depriving cancer patients of medicine -- the US attempted to abuse the legal system to steal our property on the high seas," tweeted Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. "This piracy attempt is indicative of Trump admin's contempt for the law."

After the British decision to detain the Grace 1 in July, Iran seized the British-flagged oil tanker Stena Impero as it traveled through the Strait of Hormuz.

Tensions with Tehran have escalated since the Trump administration withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and resumed economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic. Without citing specific evidence, the U.S. has blamed Iran for recent attacks on other oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

"Designed to provoke Tehran: Just as #Iran-UK-#Gibraltar were set to have #Grace1 tanker released today, #Trump admin moves in to spoil the effort. Will become another source of tension in Europe-US relations over Iran policy," Ellie Geranmayeh, Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, tweeted .

As TAC previously reported , the legal rationale for detaining the Iranian vessel and its crew is questionable, because Iran is not a member of the European Union and thus can not violate EU sanctions.

"The UK had no legal right to enforce those sanctions," writes Gareth Porter, and the seizure "was a blatant violation of the clearly defined global rules that govern the passage of merchant ships through international straits."

It is unclear whether UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will support Washington's maximum pressure campaign against Iran. But the American decision to pursue its case in Gibraltar's courts may indicate that Britain is unwilling to further escalate tensions with the Islamic Republic.

Barbara Boland is 's foreign policy and national security reporter. Follow her on Twitter @BBatDC.

[Aug 18, 2019] The Destruction Is the Point [ of Trump policy toward Iran] by Daniel Larison

How current prices correlate with Pompeo statement that "We have taken over 95 percent of the crude oil that was being shipped by Iran all around the world, and we have taken it off the market." ? Something really strange is happening here.
Notable quotes:
"... Given these statements, it is difficult to escape the conclusion that Pompeo is not being entirely honest when he claims the maximum pressure campaign is succeeding. Rather than leveling with the American people and making an argument about why the administration is persisting with the policy in spite of the lack of progress, he has chosen to deceive the public in order to defend a dangerous policy. ..."
"... Pompeo has made a habit of deceiving the public as Secretary of State on a range of issues from Yemen to North Korea, but for the most part he has been allowed to get away with that. ..."
"... When Pompeo has been asked for proof that the sanctions are "working," he cannot point to any positive change in the Iranian government's behavior, and instead he boasts about the harm that has been done to Iran's economy and its people: ..."
"... We have taken over 95 percent of the crude oil that was being shipped by Iran all around the world, and we have taken it off the market. ..."
"... Pompeo is deception, lies, absolute dishonesty. But of course that is the mark of the trump regime in general terms. ..."
Aug 15, 2019 | www.theamericanconservative.com

Nicholas Miller has delivered a devastating response to Pompeo's pitiful propaganda op-ed from earlier this month:

Given these statements, it is difficult to escape the conclusion that Pompeo is not being entirely honest when he claims the maximum pressure campaign is succeeding. Rather than leveling with the American people and making an argument about why the administration is persisting with the policy in spite of the lack of progress, he has chosen to deceive the public in order to defend a dangerous policy.

Pompeo has made a habit of deceiving the public as Secretary of State on a range of issues from Yemen to North Korea, but for the most part he has been allowed to get away with that. He probably thinks that there is no price to be paid for constantly lying and misrepresenting things to the public and Congress, and so he keeps doing it.

The more important reason why Pompeo keeps deceiving the public is that he is also eager to please the president, and so he has to keep claiming success for failing policies because reports of success are what the president wants to hear. When Pompeo's ridiculous op-ed came out last week, one of the common questions that many people asked was, "Who is the audience for this?" The point these people were making was that the "argument" in the op-ed was so facile and nonsensical that it can't possibly have been intended to persuade anyone, so the purpose of it had to be to placate Trump and reassure him that the policy "works."

Miller does an outstanding job picking apart Pompeo's various claims and using Pompeo's previous contradictory claims against him, and he shows that the Secretary's defense of "maximum pressure" is a joke to any minimally informed person. But as far as Pompeo is concerned, all that matters is that Trump sticks with the policy. When Pompeo has been asked for proof that the sanctions are "working," he cannot point to any positive change in the Iranian government's behavior, and instead he boasts about the harm that has been done to Iran's economy and its people:

I remember, David – I'm sure no one in this room, but many here in Washington said that American sanctions alone won't work. Well, they've worked. We have taken over 95 percent of the crude oil that was being shipped by Iran all around the world, and we have taken it off the market.

Miller addressed Pompeo's use of economic damage as proof of the policy's success this way:

Using economic damage to gauge the success of sanctions is like using body counts to measure success in counter-insurgency -- it's an indicator that your policy is having an effect, but does not necessarily imply you're any closer to achieving strategic objectives.

For a hard-liner like Pompeo, continuing with a destructive and bankrupt policy is a matter of ideology and an expression of hostility towards the targeted country. It doesn't matter to hard-liners if the policy actually achieves anything as long as it does damage, and so they take pride in the damage that they cause without any concern for the consequences for the U.S. and Iran. Rational critics of this policy rightfully object that this is just aimless destruction, but the destruction is the point of the policy.


Sid Finster 3 days ago

The current administration, like its predecessors, is not merely incompetent, it is actively malicious.
Zsuzsi Kruska Sid Finster 3 days ago
It only appears incompetent until you discover who benefits, and it isn't the majority of Americans. Who has benefited so far? The Plutocrats, oligarchs, Israel, Saudi, MIC, Big Oil, Big Rx, immigration related services. This is just a partial list, but guess who it doesn't include?
maninthewilderness Sid Finster 3 days ago
Perhaps it's a precondition for being the administration.
Littleredtop 3 days ago
Any nation that allows "freedom of speech" has made the assumption that either everyone is honest or everyone is smart enough to know bull sh !t when they hear it.
Taras77 3 days ago
Pompeo is deception, lies, absolute dishonesty. But of course that is the mark of the trump regime in general terms.

[Aug 18, 2019] China's Ultimate Play For Global Oil Market Control by Yossef Bodansky

Notable quotes:
"... It is bizarre that Qatar was the one country/sheikdom in the Gulf that openly stood by Iran ..."
"... Shale is already deeply unprofitable and always has been. Big-dollar investors like pension funds have continued funding it due to (a) hype and (b) lack of alternative putative sources of return, but it's finally starting to sink in that shale has no future. ..."
Aug 18, 2019 | www.nakedcapitalism.com

Lambert here: "Both MBS and MBZ consider the last-minute cancellation of the US retaliatory strike [for Iran shooting down a US drone] a personal affront and humiliation because Trump did not accept and follow their positions and demands for action. Both MBS and MBZ are now convinced that not only the US demonstrated weakness and lack of resolve, but that Pres. Trump was personally not committed to fighting Iran on behalf of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf sheikhdoms." Oh, let's you and him fight!

By Yossef Bodansky, Director of Research at the International Strategic Studies Association (ISSA) and Senior Editor of Defense & Foreign Affairs publications (including the Global Information System: GIS), was, for more than a decade, the Director of the US House of Representatives Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare. Originally published at OilPrice.com .

All attention is focused on the twists-and-turns of the very noisy US-Iran dispute in the Persian Gulf, but all the while the People's Republic of China (PRC) is rapidly and quietly consolidating a dominant presence in the area with the active support of Russia.

Beijing, as a result, is fast acquiring immense influence over related key dynamics such as the price of oil in the world market and the relevance of the petrodollar. The PRC and the Russians are capitalizing on both the growing fears of Iran and the growing mistrust of the US. Hence, the US is already the main loser of the PRC's gambit.

The dramatic PRC success can be attributed to the confluence of two major trends:

(1) The quality and relevance of what Beijing can offer to both Iran and the Saudi-Gulf States camp; and

(2) The decision of key Arab leaders -- most notably Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin 'Abd al-'Aziz al Sa'ud (aka MBS) and his close ally, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (aka MBZ) -- to downgrade their traditional close ties with the US, and reach out to Beijing to provide a substitute strategic umbrella.

Hence, the PRC offer to oversee and guarantee the establishment of a regional collective security regime -- itself based on the Russian proposals and ideas first raised in late July 2019 -- is now getting considerable positive attention from both shores of the Persian Gulf. Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, and Oman appear to be becoming convinced that the PRC could be the key to the long-term stability and prosperity in the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula.

Iran is also considering the expansion of security cooperation with Russia as an added umbrella against potential US retaliation.

Overall, according to sources in these areas, the US was increasingly perceived as an unpredictable, disruptive element.

The profound change in the attitude of the Saudi and Emirati ruling families, who for decades have considered themselves pliant protégés of the US, took long to evolve. However, once formulated and adopted, the new policies have been implemented swiftly.

The main driving issue is the realization by both MBS and MBZ that, irrespective of the reassuring rhetoric of US Pres. Donald Trump and Jared Kushner, their bitter nemesis -- Qatar -- is far more important to the US than the rest of the conservative Arab monarchies and sheikhdoms of the GCC. The last straw came in early July 2019 in the aftermath of the visit of the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, to Washington, DC. Sheikh Tamim received an extravagant reception from both Pres. Trump in person and official Washington. Trump lavished praises on Qatar and the Emir , and emphasized the US renewed commitment "to further advancing the high-level strategic cooperation between our two countries".

There are good reasons for the US preference of Qatar.

The Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar is by far the most important US base in the entire greater Middle East. Qatar is mediating between the US and several nemeses, including Afghanistan, Iran, and Turkey. Qatar is providing "humanitarian cash" to HAMAS in the Gaza Strip, thus buying quiet time for Israel. Qatar has given generous "political shelter" to numerous leaders, seniors, and commanders of questionable entities the US would like to protect but would never acknowledge this (including anti-Russia Chechens and other Caucasians, and anti-China Uighurs). Related: Gibraltar Releases Iranian Tanker

Qatari Intelligence is funding and otherwise supporting the various jihadist entities which serve as proxies of the CIA and M?T ( Milli ?stihbarat Te?kilat?: the Turkish National Intelligence Organization) in the greater Middle East (mainly Syria, Iraq, Libya, Jordan, Yemen) and Central Asia (mainly Afghanistan-Pakistan, China's Xinjiang and Russia's Caucasus and the Turkic peoples of eastern Siberia).

On top of this, Qatar is purchasing billions of dollars' worth of US-made weapons; and paying cash on-time (unlike the habitually late Saudis who now cannot afford to pay what they've already promised).

Moreover, the Middle East is awash with rumors that Qatari businessmen saved the financial empire of the Kushner family by investing at least half-a-billion dollars in the 666 5th Avenue project in New York. The rumors are very specific in that the investment was made for political reasons on instruction of the Emir . In the conspiracies-driven Arab Middle East, such rumors are believed and serve as a viable motive for the policies of the Trump White House: an ulterior motive the Saudis and Gulfies cannot challenge.


haydar khan , August 18, 2019 at 9:13 am

"They discussed coordination of forthcoming regional crises and diplomatic initiatives. They agreed that the current dynamic vis-à-vis the US could lead to either a US capitulation and withdrawal, or to a major escalation all over the greater Middle East. Soleimani believed the latter option was more likely. Therefore, Soleimani and Zarif discussed how to better utilize the Russian and PRC umbrella to not only shield Iran against US onslaught, but to also convince the Arab states to stay out of the fighting."

A lot of focus on the Arabs but only a brief mention of the Israelis. I suspect this is why Soleimani believes escalation is likely: the Israelis are the main driving force pushing the U.S. take out Iran. My question: How tight is Adelson and Netanyahu's grip on the strange orange man?

Anarcissie , August 18, 2019 at 10:20 am

'How tight is Adelson and Netanyahu's grip on the strange orange man?'

I think the refusal to retaliate against Iran for shooting down a drone has already given an answer to this question. If my guess is correct then we can expect a new outbreak of the wars between the Deep State and the various populist factions now gaining ground. It seems the folk are tired of the burdens of empire in spite of being propagandized by their betters day and night. Better watch out for another major terrorist attack, I suppose.

Schmoe , August 18, 2019 at 10:38 am

It is bizarre that Qatar was the one country/sheikdom in the Gulf that openly stood by Iran, if only because of the idiotic Saudi attempted embargo of it, while at the same time Qatari funded mercenaries in Syria fought Iranian backed Hezbollah forces there.

As bizarre as Russia sending S-400s to Turkey last month and Turkish-allied militants shelling a Russian observation post in Syria yesterday. Also, maybe Qatar's importance to the US is its regional support for Iran.

China's largest oil company backed out of a large Venezuelan crude purchase last week and it will be interesting to see if they continue to violate US sanctions on Iran.

Elrond Hubbard , August 18, 2019 at 12:05 pm

Shale is already deeply unprofitable and always has been. Big-dollar investors like pension funds have continued funding it due to (a) hype and (b) lack of alternative putative sources of return, but it's finally starting to sink in that shale has no future.

If the bubble doesn't pop by itself, a Chinese end-run would likely do so, thereby ratcheting the stakes up in the Middle East that much higher. Then we're back to Soleimani's "latter option".

John k , August 18, 2019 at 12:42 pm

Different take from MOA, particularly re Russians stationed in Iran which none may call bases. None of this in msm but of course, because this is news the contradiscts official narrative. Msm is reporting Iran oil trans shipped between tankers to bust sanctions but if China takes large, say 2 million b/d, can't be hid what will us do?

Probably not much if in China ships. More tariffs?

[Aug 17, 2019] Long Range Attack On Saudi Oil Field as a good news for Yemen and for oil producing nations in need of an oil price rise.

Notable quotes:
"... The field's distance from rebel-held territory in Yemen demonstrates the range of the Houthis' drones. U.N. investigators say the Houthis' new UAV-X drone, found in recent months during the Saudi-led coalition's war in Yemen, likely has a range of up to 1,500 kilometers (930 miles). That puts Saudi oil fields, an under-construction Emirati nuclear power plant and Dubai's busy international airport within their range. ..."
"... The outcome was a forgone conclusion. The smash, destroy, and destabilize campaign in the region could have only come from the most powerful lobby in the US. We all know who that is. ..."
Aug 17, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

Today Saudi Arabia finally lost the war on Yemen. It has no defenses against new weapons the Houthis in Yemen acquired. These weapons threaten the Saudis economic lifelines. This today was the decisive attack:

Drones launched by Yemen's Houthi rebels attacked a massive oil and gas field deep inside Saudi Arabia's sprawling desert on Saturday, causing what the kingdom described as a "limited fire" in the second such recent attack on its crucial energy industry.
...
The Saudi acknowledgement of the attack came hours after Yahia Sarie, a military spokesman for the Houthis, issued a video statement claiming the rebels launched 10 bomb-laden drones targeting the field in their "biggest-ever" operation. He threatened more attacks would be coming.
New drones and missiles displayed in July 2019 by Yemen's Houthi-allied armed forces

bigger

Today's attack is a check mate move against the Saudis. Shaybah is some 1,200 kilometers (750 miles) from Houthi-controlled territory. There are many more important economic targets within that range:

The field's distance from rebel-held territory in Yemen demonstrates the range of the Houthis' drones. U.N. investigators say the Houthis' new UAV-X drone, found in recent months during the Saudi-led coalition's war in Yemen, likely has a range of up to 1,500 kilometers (930 miles). That puts Saudi oil fields, an under-construction Emirati nuclear power plant and Dubai's busy international airport within their range.

Unlike sophisticated drones that use satellites to allow pilots to remotely fly them, analysts believe Houthi drones are likely programmed to strike a specific latitude and longitude and cannot be controlled once out of radio range. The Houthis have used drones, which can be difficult to track by radar, to attack Saudi Patriot missile batteries, as well as enemy troops.

The attack conclusively demonstrates that the most important assets of the Saudis are now under threat. This economic threat comes on top of a seven percent budget deficit the IMF predicts for Saudi Arabia. Further Saudi bombing against the Houthi will now have very significant additional cost that might even endanger the viability of the Saudi state. The Houthi have clown prince Mohammad bin Salman by the balls and can squeeze those at will. There is a lesson to learn from that. But it is doubtful that the borg in Washington DC has the ability to understand it.

The outcome was a forgone conclusion. The smash, destroy, and destabilize campaign in the region could have only come from the most powerful lobby in the US. We all know who that is.


Jen , Aug 17 2019 20:45 utc | 3

I'm afraid the only lesson the Borg in Washington will learn is to continue squandering US resources and manpower on pursuing and inflicting chaos and violence in the Middle East. Clown prince Mohammed bin Salman will not learn anything either other than to bankrupt his own nation in pursuing this war.

Israel has driven itself into its own existential hell by persecuting Palestinians over 70+ years and doing a good job of annihilating itself while denying its own destruction. If Israel can do it, the Christian crusaders dominating the govts of the Five Eyes nations supporting Israel will follow suit in propping up an unsustainable fantasy. Samson option indeed.

Tonymike , Aug 17 2019 20:46 utc | 4
I am sure that the Suads will be looking to their zionist allies to supply them with the Iron Dome system that the US military just wasted millions of tax payer dollars and purchased several days ago. The irony of that system is that is was overwhelmed several times when the Palestinian freedom fighters launched a wave of home made rockets at Occupied Palestine. I hope the Sauds learn a lesson..doubt it though.
donkeytale , Aug 17 2019 20:53 utc | 6
This is good news for Yemen and...for oil producing nations in need of a price rise.
ebolax , Aug 17 2019 21:02 utc | 13
let me throw something out there. Israel has entrenched itself in the US political and media systems. There is no logical path to eliminate or reduce that influence, and thus perhaps the plan that has been hatched is to strengthen Iran to the point that it can confront Israel.
karlof1 , Aug 17 2019 21:07 utc | 14
I anticipated just this sort of event 2+ months ago to go along with the tanker sabotaging to expand on b's thesis about Iran having the upper hand in the current hybrid Gulf War. The timing of this new ability dovetails nicely with the recent Russian collective security proposal, with the Saudis being the footdraggers in agreeing about its viability due to its pragmatic logic. So, as I wrote 2 days ago, we now have an excellent possibility of seeing an end to this and future Persian Gulf Crises along with an idea that can potentially become the template for an entire Southwest Asian security treaty, whose only holdout would be Occupied Palestine. The Outlaw US Empire is effectively shutout of the entire process. And as I also wrote, it's now time for the Saudis to determine where their future lies--with Eurasia or with a dying Empire.
KC , Aug 17 2019 21:11 utc | 15
@Tonymike

So the U.S. bought the Iron Dome stuff from Israel? I guess that means we paid for it twice, eh? Glad to know my tax dollars are hard at work "keeping us safe."

Wonder what they might be planning for with that one?

karlof1 , Aug 17 2019 21:18 utc | 18
Ian Seed | Aug 17 2019 20:55 utc | 7--

The Yemenese military had lots of technological capabilities remaining from the Cold War along with factories, technicians and raw materials. For example, Yemen's aerospace forces allied with the Houthi and are the ones producing and shooting the missiles and drones. One doesn't need to import a complete drone; technical blueprints on a floppy, CD-ROM, DVD, thumb-drive, are all that's required. The humanitarian crisis due to food and medicine shortages played on the minds of people such that an image of a poor, backward, non-industrial capable society was generated that wasn't 100% correct.

Sasha , Aug 17 2019 21:47 utc | 24
What to say? Poetic justice!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGrUz-rdxxM

Ancient cultures are not so easy to erradicate so as to loot their resources.
A lesson the peoples without culture must learn.....

fx , Aug 17 2019 21:59 utc | 25
And of course, this makes the threat by Iran to hit back against military and industrial installations on the other side of the Persian Gulf that much stronger.
Really?? , Aug 17 2019 22:10 utc | 28
13

It would be rich indeed if Iran were to be the entity that ultimately manages to loosen the stranglehold that the Zionists have on the USA Congress, media, president, donors to political parties, etc.

Sasha , Aug 17 2019 22:31 utc | 33
A graphic idea of the distance in the map...

https://twitter.com/descifraguerra/status/1162850455954874369

Photos of the Houthis drones and rockets arsenal...published last month...Someone possibly thought it was fake...

https://twitter.com/descifraguerra/status/1147940696705392642

jerichocheyenne , Aug 17 2019 22:39 utc | 34
I can imagine the shale oil producers smiling right now...100 a barrel oil will be just what they need! Cost-push inflation leading to a return of bell bottoms and leisure suits. No wonder all these 70's band retreads are touring again :)
karlof1 , Aug 17 2019 23:11 utc | 37
Michael Droy | Aug 17 2019 22:40 utc | 35--

So, poor Yemen wasted via siege warfare waged by NATO since 2015 though its Saudi, UAE and terrorist proxies that came very close to success, finds the initiative to counterattack with what little it has at its disposal--All accusations of Iranian help have never been proven --and thanks to the Outlaw US Empire's threats against Iran force UAE to withdrawal and seek peace with Iran with Saudi soon to follow. And the situation is all Iran's fault?! Note the date above--it precedes Trump's election, his illegal withdrawal from the JCPOA and institution of the illegal sanctions regime against Iran.

Europe is on board with Russia's collective security proposal. Europe had representatives at the meet between Khamenei and the Houthi negotiator. Europe--even the UK--still working to salvage the JCPOA via the non-dollar trade conduit. And you conclude that the Outlaw US Empire "might actually get European support to attack Iran."

eagle eye , Aug 17 2019 23:21 utc | 38
First Afghanistan, then Yemen. Maybe the western media's imaging of these people as towel headed, sandal wearing primatives is just a tad misguided......

[Aug 07, 2019] Why Should Iran Be Cherished and Defended by Andre Vltchek

It's mostly about the control of Mid East oil and Israel status in the region ...
And despite all those positive things mentioned bellow Iran is still a theocratic state. It is definitely not Saudi Arabia but still..
Notable quotes:
"... Despite the embargos and terrible intimidation from the West, it still sits at the threshold of the "Very high human development", defined by UNDP; well above such darlings of the West as Ukraine, Colombia or Thailand. ..."
"... Trump is President of the US. He is responsible for the actions of the US in foreign affairs. Trump is a willing sycophant of the Deep State. ..."
"... Yet another article, pointing out that there is no reason for the US to attack Iran. Yes, there is. Iran is an enemy of Israel (although with the US behind them, there isn’t much they can actually do), and Israel wants Iran destroyed. The influence of Israel in American politics is enormous. THAT is the reason. Please stop the head-scratching over why oh why the US would want to destroy Israel. Everyone knows why. ..."
"... Iran’s real “crime” is twofold: 1) It sells oil in denomiations other than the US dollar; and 2) If allowed its rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it would be producing vast amounts of low cost molybdenum and/or technetium which are used in medical testing, which would cut into the lucrative US market. ..."
"... There is some truth to claims about Iran’s belligerence…the Russians aren’t thrilled about everything they’re doing in Syria, which includes Shia colonizing in regions they’ve seized, which is a sign of attempting to entrench their agenda in that suffering country…and hence the continuing Israeli attacks, which nobody appreciates… ..."
"... In Iran, sources confirm that “…Russia offered to sell one million barrels daily for Iran, and to replace the European financial system with another if needed. ..."
"... There is also the issue of the illegality of Trump tearing up the deal…which was adopted [unanimously] by the UN Security Council Resolution 2231… ..."
"... The US signed that resolution…and let us remember that UNSC resolutions are INTERNATIONAL LAW…they are LEGALLY BINDING on all UN member states… ..."
"... So the US is breaking international law…the sanctions are illegal also, since only the UNSC had the legal authority to impose sanctions… ..."
"... The US’ disregard for the supreme international legal order…along with Israel similarly flouting UNSC resolutions for 50 years to pull out of the occupied territories…is simply unacceptable… ..."
Aug 06, 2019 | www.unz.com

As I pen this short essay, Iran is standing against the mightiest nation on earth. It is facing tremendous danger; of annihilation even, if the world does not wake up fast, and rush to its rescue.

Stunning Iranian cities are in danger, but above all, its people: proud and beautiful, creative, formed by one of the oldest and deepest cultures on earth.

This is a reminder to the world: Iran may be bombed, devastated and injured terribly, for absolutely no reason. I repeat: there is zero rational reason for attacking Iran.

Iran has never attacked anyone. It has done nothing bad to the United States, to the United Kingdom, or even to those countries that want to destroy it immediately: Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Its only 'crime' is that it helped devastated Syria. And that it seriously stands by Palestine. And that it came to the rescue of many far away nations, like Cuba and Venezuela, when they were in awful need.

I am trying to choose the simplest words. No need for pirouettes and intellectual exercises.

Thousands, millions of Iranians may soon die, simply because a psychopath who is currently occupying the White House wants to humiliate his predecessor, who signed the nuclear deal. This information was leaked by his own staff. This is not about who is a bigger gangster. It is about the horrible fact that antagonizing Iran has absolutely nothing to do with Iran itself.

Which brings the question to my mind: in what world are we really living? Could this be tolerable? Can the world just stand by, idly, and watch how one of the greatest countries on earth gets violated by aggressive, brutal forces, without any justification?

I love Iran! I love its cinema, poetry, food. I love Teheran. And I love the Iranian people with their polite, educated flair. I love their thinkers. I don't want anything bad to happen to them.

You know, you were of course never told by the Western media, but Iran is a socialist country. It professes a system that could be defined as "socialism with Iranian characteristics". Like China, Iran is one of the most ancient nations on earth, and it is perfectly capable of creating and developing its own economic and social system.

Iran is an extremely successful nation. Despite the embargos and terrible intimidation from the West, it still sits at the threshold of the "Very high human development", defined by UNDP; well above such darlings of the West as Ukraine, Colombia or Thailand.

It clearly has an internationalist spirit: it shows great solidarity with the countries that are being battered by Western imperialism, including those in Latin America.

I have no religion. In Iran, most of the people do. They are Shi'a Muslims. So what? I do not insist that everyone thinks like me. And my Iranian friends, comrades, brothers and sisters have never insisted that I feel or think the same way as they do. They are not fanatics, and they do not make people who are not like them, feel excluded. We are different and yet so similar. We fight for a better world. We are internationalists. We respect each other. We respect others.

Iran does not want to conquer anyone. But when its friends are attacked, it offers a helping hand. Like to Syria.

In the past, it was colonized by the West, and its democratic government was overthrown, in 1953, simply because it wanted to use its natural resources for improving the lives of its people. The morbid dictatorship of Shah Pahlavi was installed from abroad. And then, later, again, a terrible war unleashed against Iran by Iraq, with the full and candid support of the West.

I promised to make this essay short. There is no time for long litanies. And in fact, this is not really an essay at all: it is an appeal.

As this goes to print, many people in Iran are anxious. They do not understand what they have done to deserve this; the sanctions, the US aircraft carriers sailing near their shores, and deadly B-52s deployed only dozens of miles away.

Iranians are brave, proud people. If confronted, if attacked, they will fight. And they will die with dignity, if there is no other alternative.

But why? Why should they fight and why should they die?

Those of you, my readers, living in the West: Study; study quickly. Then ask this question to your government: "What is the reason for this terrible scenario?"

Rent Iranian films; they are everywhere, winning all festivals. Read Iranian poets. Go eat Iranian food. Search for images of both historic and modern Iranian cities. Look at the faces of the people. Do not allow this to happen. Do not permit psychopathic reasoning to ruin millions of lives.

There was no real reason for the wars against Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria. The West perpetrated the most terrible imperialist interventions, ruining entire nations.

But Iran -- it all goes one step further. It's a total lack of logic and accountability on the part of the West.

Here, I declare my full support to the people of Iran, and to the country that has been giving countless cultural treasures to the world, for millennia.

It is because I have doubts that if Iran is destroyed, the human race could survive.

[First published by NEO -- New Eastern Outlook]

Andre Vltchek is a philosopher, novelist, filmmaker and investigative journalist. He has covered wars and conflicts in dozens of countries. Four of his latest books are ...


Jonny C , says: July 28, 2019 at 6:16 pm GMT

Thousands, millions of Iranians may soon die, simply because a psychopath who is currently occupying the White House wants to humiliate his predecessor, who signed the nuclear deal.

Certainly war with Iran is not because Trump wants to humiliate Obama. There is very serious pressure on Trump to go to war with Iran, and that pressure comes from sources including Sheldon Adelson, Netanyahu, John Bolton, and elements within the military industrial complex and oil industries both of which would be able to capitalize on such a misadventure. It is very possibly Trump’s misgivings about a war with Iran (in spite of the idiotic rhetoric) that is keeping the US from attacking Iran.

While I agree with your sentiment in this article, it is unfortunate to make over-simplifications that cheerlead a false narrative that one person is to blame for a complex problem that spans party lines and presidencies. It was much to Obama’s credit to enter into the agreement with Iran, and the opposition to doing so obviously runs much deeper than Trump’s desire to make Obama look bad.

Thomm , says: July 28, 2019 at 7:01 pm GMT
One thing that everyone on UR agrees on is that there is absolutely no benefit for America to attack Iran.

Iran is the most overrated threat ever. The MI-complex has spent 40 years pushing a narrative so that they can profit from a large war.

Jonny C , says: July 28, 2019 at 10:03 pm GMT
@Andre Vltchek Yes, you can’t say everything in every piece that you write, and for expediency there is simplification. You can get away with it by saying “among other things, Trump’s desire to humiliate Obama may lead us into a devastating war.” But the way you wrote it certainly insinuates that it is in fact Trump and his personal psychopathy driving the country towards war. In that, I think you are mistaken. The jury is not out on this one yet, and Trump’s resistance to war with Iran is a thread of hope keeping it from happening. I am not trying to split hairs. It is important because there is a tendency to focus on the face in the white house and not on the forces that are behind the mischief. It also probably gets more likes among a broader audience who want to blame Trump or Obama when they are more like two leaves being blown by a strong wind than the leader of the free world or any other nonsensical title given to the president. Take it for a slight literary critique and not for any disagreement with the overall sentiment or quality of the article.
anonymous [251] • Disclaimer , says: July 28, 2019 at 10:51 pm GMT
@Birchleg

It was at that point I knew this wasn’t an intellectually honest essay. You don’t even need to go back six months to see what a peaceful little lamb Iran is, as it attacked merchant ships in the Straight of Hormuz. Perhaps your intended audience is ignorant to facts, but Iran is, by no means, a country of innocent intent.

What would USA do if Iranian or any other non-friendly nation surrounded USA, including sending heavily armed ships into its harbors?

This Could Be Part Of The Reason Iran Is So Darn Defensive
Robert Johnson Jan. 3, 2012, 9:38 AM
Facebook Icon The letter F.
https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-surrounded-by-us-military-bases-2011-12

This map from Democratic Underground puts a star on every U.S. military base in the region, and aside from the Caspian area to the North, American forces pretty much have Tehran surrounded (via Informed Comment).

[Non-violent resistance is not necessarily futile, but a feint]: We cannot delude ourselves.
People ask, What about nonviolent, peaceful forms of resistance? And you know, the answer is, There is no such thing as nonviolence.
Nonviolence is a form of disruption and only works if you are facing those who are constrained in their use of violence, or works best if you can use your enemy’s violence against them.

Take for example, Dr. Martin Luther King . . . [he learned from Gandhi and others that] nonviolence is a mechanism of goading your opponent into being violent.
Once they become violent, you can call on your friends to be even more violent against them. And he knew he could goad the sheriff into behaving violently and stupidly, and then the FBI would descend on them.
You know, we always want to delude ourselves that war is not the answer. It would be good if that were true, but unfortunately it is very often the key answer, the only answer. https://www.c-span.org/video/?323264-1/the-worth-war&start=599

USA is being deliberately provocative, goading Iran to throw the first punch, whereupon USA will “descend on them.”

It’s not the first time USA & its allies have used the tactic.

The Alarmist , says: July 29, 2019 at 9:11 am GMT
I dunno … If the West was going to attack, it should have happened several weeks ago, if not earlier. Do you think Trump’s stand-down of an attack allegedly in progress was to save a couple hundred Iranian lives, or might it make more sense that it became clear a couple hundreds or thousands of coalition lives were at serious risk? The leadership knows this will be far messier than Iraq if it goes kinetic, and they would prefer to continue to starve Iran into submission while making a lot of noise about the ‘evil and suicidal death-cult’ regime in Tehran.
peter mcloughlin , says: July 29, 2019 at 9:34 am GMT
Andre Vltchek gives a passionate defence of Iran, and the reasons for not attacking it. I agree there are ‘doubts that if Iran is destroyed, the human race could survive.’ If the US, and its allies, were to destabilize Iran to such an extent as to threaten regime change China and Russia would have to intervene. The world should avoid war on Iran, even if it is for selfish reasons. All the indications point to world war.
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/
Anon [363] • Disclaimer , says: July 29, 2019 at 9:45 am GMT
@anonymous Because the JIDF/Zionist has the modus operandi of falsifying consensus. Large numbers of seemingly reasonable people all pushing the same view point has the unconscious effect of making an unwary reader adopt that same viewpoint. Of course, they’re hoping you dont go trawling through their comment history or else the whole thing blows up.
Realist , says: July 29, 2019 at 10:32 am GMT
@Jonny C

While I agree with your sentiment in this article, it is unfortunate to make over-simplifications that cheerlead a false narrative that one person is to blame for a complex problem that spans party lines and presidencies.

Trump is President of the US. He is responsible for the actions of the US in foreign affairs. Trump is a willing sycophant of the Deep State.

Realist , says: July 29, 2019 at 10:36 am GMT
@anonymous

People need to realize that it’s been a RedBlue puppet show of the same empire since – for purposes of Iran – 1953. Blaming one politician as opposed to the other plays right into the hands of those who want to run the world from Washington.

The past can not be changed. Trump is responsible for the here and now.

SteveK9 , says: July 29, 2019 at 3:37 pm GMT
Yet another article, pointing out that there is no reason for the US to attack Iran. Yes, there is. Iran is an enemy of Israel (although with the US behind them, there isn’t much they can actually do), and Israel wants Iran destroyed. The influence of Israel in American politics is enormous. THAT is the reason. Please stop the head-scratching over why oh why the US would want to destroy Israel. Everyone knows why.
Curmudgeon , says: July 29, 2019 at 6:24 pm GMT
The Iran never attacked anyone narrative has long been a favourite. What is buried somewhere in cyberspace, is an article written over 20 years ago about the causes of the Iraq – Iran war. The article laid out several instances of Iranian revolutionaries attacking several Iraqi border towns. It also pointed out that Iraq’s original invasion into Iran stopped about 8 miles into Iran, apparently understanding that it was never going to defeat Iran territorially. The article also stated that Iraq was egged on by the US to attack, in hopes to dislodge the new regime. However, it was the Shah who attacked Iraq in the 70s over the Shat al Arab waterway. The subsequent peace agreement settled the issue. https://www.nytimes.com/1975/03/07/archives/iraq-and-iran-sign-accord-to-settle-border-conflicts-iraq-and-iran.html

One reason given by Iraq for its invasion of Iran, post revolution, was that it viewed the border attacks by Iranian revolutionaries, as a refutation of the treaty.

Iran’s real “crime” is twofold:
1) It sells oil in denomiations other than the US dollar; and
2) If allowed its rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it would be producing vast amounts of low cost molybdenum and/or technetium which are used in medical testing, which would cut into the lucrative US market.

Brabantian , says: July 29, 2019 at 7:39 pm GMT
The USA-Israel-Nato menaces to Iran are criminal horseshite BUT –

Iran is horrifyingly brutal toward its own citizens, one of the most savage of all countries in per capita executions of its own people, sometimes hanging 100 people or so in a month, typically done by slow-torture hanging, often in groups of 6 or 8 people in public squares.

It seems that usually, Iran does not even try to break the neck of its hanging victims with a long drop, which can induce a merciful coma before the victim dies, typically some 15 minutes to an hour later. As is often observed in Iran, smaller people such as women typically die more slowly, their lighter weight leading to a longer period of torturous choking.

And Iran has a bunch of other Islamic barbarisms … Iran burying women alive up to their necks, only their veiled heads above the ground, and stoning them to death; the floggings and amputations, sometimes the victim marked for death is flogged bloody before being hanged from a crane etc

But André Vltchek thinks Iran is a great place …

Iran is also a bizarre social experiment in extreme social dysfunctionality, with the ‘temporary marriage’ provision in Shia religious practice that is essentially legalised prostitution. Not only can Iranians have 4 wives as the Sunnis do, one of those can be a ‘wife for the weekend’, legally, provided you go to the imam to be officially ‘married’ … you can then divorce Monday morning, e.g., by saying the word ‘talaq’ 3 times. Iranian women sometimes advertise themselves as ‘temporary wives’ (not ‘prostitutes’ of course!) for a small marital ‘gift’ of € 60 or so.

Between temporary marriage, and Iran’s practice of educating its women – often ‘bad’ for Muslim fertility – Iran’s birth rate has collapsed even more than in much of Europe.

A great shame the US CIA overthrew the secular socialist Iranian government in 1953. May the Iranian people be soon free of both Western-Israeli menace, and their own mad mullahs.

peterAUS , says: July 29, 2019 at 10:38 pm GMT
@Brabantian Good comment.

Have to say this was new to me:

…‘temporary marriage’ provision in Shia religious practice that is essentially legalised prostitution. Not only can Iranians have 4 wives as the Sunnis do, one of those can be a ‘wife for the weekend’, legally, provided you go to the imam to be officially ‘married’ … you can then divorce Monday morning, e.g., by saying the word ‘talaq’ 3 times. Iranian women sometimes advertise themselves as ‘temporary wives’ (not ‘prostitutes’ of course!) for a small marital ‘gift’ of € 60 or so.

May the Iranian people be soon free of both Western-Israeli menace, and their own mad mullahs.

Well, the price for the later is the former, apparently.

renfro , says: July 29, 2019 at 11:00 pm GMT
@Jonny C

Yes, you can’t say everything in every piece that you write, and for expediency there is simplification. You can get away with it by saying “among other things, Trump’s desire to humiliate Obama may lead us into a devastating war.” But the way you wrote it certainly insinuates that it is in fact Trump and his personal psychopathy driving the country towards war. In that, I think you are mistaken.

I don’t see it that way…..Vltchek has been around unz for a while…..so it would not be wrong for him to assume most of unz knows the real forces behind Trump and the Iran war push.

... ... ...

FB , says: • Website July 30, 2019 at 2:49 pm GMT
@Brabantian You come off sounding like a Soros acolyte by parroting ‘human rights porn’ that is largely fabricated bullshit…and disseminated by the usual NGO suspects and their MSM partners…

That’s not to say there is no merit to your basic beef…Iran is a theocracy…religious fanaticism has been a curse on humanity over the ages…religion in general really…

Iran does execute a lot of people…Vltchek is overly enthusiastic about Iran…I would say probably because he sympathizes a lot with their essentially ‘socialist’ approach [as do I]…but Iran is no angel…

But then who is…?…US cops gun down 1,000 people a year…

Also some mitigating facts to consider…a lot of the criminals Iran executes are drug traffickers…Afghanistan next-door is heroin central…run by the CIA with help from their ISIS private army…

This is nothing new…the deep state of empire has been running the global drug racket for a couple of centuries now…and using it as a geopolitical weapon against perceived ‘enemies’…going back to the opium wars that were used by the British to ‘crack open’ China…and today aimed against Russia, Central Asia and Iran…not to mention ‘neutralizing’ large swaths of the domestic population by turning them into drug zombies…

Iran’s drug laws are not nearly as draconian as in other jurisdictions in the Muslim world…capital punishment goes only for those caught with over 30 grams of hard drugs like heroin…which is far bigger than user amounts…the death sentence is not applied for first offenders, or even for repeat offenders of 30 to 100 grams…so really it is the hardcore traffickers that are getting offed…I have no problem with that…[neither do leaders like the Philippines’ Duterte who is much less tolerant than Iran…]

There is some truth to claims about Iran’s belligerence…the Russians aren’t thrilled about everything they’re doing in Syria, which includes Shia colonizing in regions they’ve seized, which is a sign of attempting to entrench their agenda in that suffering country…and hence the continuing Israeli attacks, which nobody appreciates…

They are also spurning Russian offers of help…

In Iran, sources confirm that “…Russia offered to sell one million barrels daily for Iran, and to replace the European financial system with another if needed.

Iran has refused…why…?

[Probably because they resent Russia for pressuring them to reign in their activities in Syria…it just shows the all or nothing mentality of religious fanatics…]

All in all it is crazy to think that religious zealotry can lead to anything good…it never has…

But there is a bigger principle here… it’s their country…

Nobody gives us the right to tell them how to live their lives…certainly compared to Saudi Barbaria and the other gulf theocracies…not to mention serial criminal Israel…nobody has good cause to be pointing fingers at Iran…

There is also the issue of the illegality of Trump tearing up the deal…which was adopted [unanimously] by the UN Security Council Resolution 2231…

The US signed that resolution…and let us remember that UNSC resolutions are INTERNATIONAL LAW…they are LEGALLY BINDING on all UN member states…

So the US is breaking international law…the sanctions are illegal also, since only the UNSC had the legal authority to impose sanctions…

The US’ disregard for the supreme international legal order…along with Israel similarly flouting UNSC resolutions for 50 years to pull out of the occupied territories…is simply unacceptable…

So let’s not lose sight of the ball…this has nothing to do with Iran’s domestic behavior…and everything to do with serial criminal USA…

Fool's Paradise , says: July 30, 2019 at 8:33 pm GMT
@SteveK9 Yes, SteveK9, but you meant, of course, to say “why oh why the US would want to destroy Iran”–not Israel. Israel has been trying to maneuver Uncle Sam into a shooting war with Iran for a decade or more. Israel’s American neocons have succeeded in getting America to destroy Iraq, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Iran is the last country standing in the way of Israel’s total dominance of the Middle East. No Israel, no war, it’s as simple as that.
Commentator Mike , says: August 3, 2019 at 3:31 pm GMT
@Brabantian Standard muslim stuff. It’s their country so up to them what they do. But Iran was cooperating with Al Qaida in Bosnia in the 1990s chopping heads of Christians and atheists. In fact they were aligned with USA and NATO there but now US is using that involvement against them as proof of “terrorism” activity.

https://en.radiofarda.com/a/iran-guard-s-general-says-they-were-in-bosnia-disguised-as-aid-workers/29886373.html

And here’s Andre praising them. It was well known that they were supplying weapons disguised as humanitarian aid but US and NATO did nothing to stop them at the time.

Talha , says: August 3, 2019 at 4:45 pm GMT
@Commentator Mike There was an embargo on any weapons getting through to Bosnia at the time. The Bosnians were massively outgunned by the Serbs that had possession of almost all the serious hardware after the break up of Yugoslavia. The Muslim world was not about to let this discrepancy go unanswered.

AQ at that stage was still mostly the “foreign legion” global defense initiative that was the initial vision of Shaykh Abdullah Azzam so it’s not surprising the Iranians were cooperating with them at the time. It would later progressively warp into the terrorism outfit over time in the 90’s especially with the African embassy bombings.

Peace.

peterAUS , says: August 3, 2019 at 7:17 pm GMT
@Commentator Mike Maybe you could take a look at what is going on there as we speak.
As European, you could do it. Americans and the rest of colonists can’t.

Let’s just say there is a significant Iranian presence in Bosnia.

Serbs and Croats in the region won’t be displeased should the regime in Tehran get smashed into pieces. Really small pieces.

Make of that what you will.

Commentator Mike , says: August 4, 2019 at 7:09 am GMT
@peterAUS PeterAUS,

The problem with the Balkans is that there is so much hatred and animosity between the various white ethnicities, because of historical reasons, that they have a blind spot for the much greater danger posed to them all by the massive demographic changes taking place in the world. And if that kind of intra-white hatred were to spread to the rest of Europe it will be even harder to salvage anything of the white European sovereignty.

Actually one can work even within those hatreds unless they’re given a chance to flare up, and obviously certain forces work on doing just that, as we have seen in Ukraine. Oh yes, and the Muslims aren’t helping much to bring peace about in that region.

Commentator Mike , says: August 4, 2019 at 8:41 am GMT

Go eat Iranian food.

Thanks but no thanks. Since Supreme Commander Al Baghdadi ordered muslims to get us by any and every means I strictly avoid eating anywhere muslims work, cook, or serve, despite liking their food. Didn’t you hear of the three Albanian Kosovars who were arrested in Italy plotting a bombing campaign? They worked as waiters in Venice, Italy’s tourist hub. I pity those tourists who went through their restaurant before the Kosovars decided to move onto bigger actions. And he did mention poison, whatever, even spitting.

peterAUS , says: August 4, 2019 at 7:08 pm GMT
@Commentator Mike True.

Especially:

The problem with the Balkans is that there is so much hatred and animosity between the various white ethnicities, because of historical reasons, that they have a blind spot for the much greater danger posed to them all by the massive demographic changes taking place in the world.

As for this:

And if that kind of intra-white hatred were to spread to the rest of Europe it will be even harder to salvage anything of the white European sovereignty.

Smart observation.

[Aug 06, 2019] Something is happening in Saudi Arabia

Aug 06, 2019 | www.middleeastmonitor.com

August 5, 2019

A Saudi royal, Ahmed Bin Abdul Aziz, yesterday warned against "the kingdom's involvement in a war with Iran."

"I'd oppose the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman if he decided to join a US-British military alliance to confront Iran," The New Khalij quoted Abdul Aziz as saying.

The brother of the Saudi King added that it was important for Riyadh to take measures to unify the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) instead of responding to US President Donald Trump's plans, which he described as "pushing the region to the brink of war."

Posted by: somebody | Aug 6 2019 6:46 utc | 85

[Aug 03, 2019] Gareth Porter on John Bolton's Role in the Iranian Tanker Crisis The Scott Horton Show

Jul 30, 2019 | scotthorton.org

Scott interviews Gareth Porter about John Bolton's most recent efforts to raise tensions with Iran. He and Scott speculate about Iran's ability to disrupt international trade in the region by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, and the likelihood that they would do so given the risks of inciting more serious conflict as a result.

Discussed on the show:

Gareth Porter is an investigative historian and journalist on the national security state, and author of Manufactured Crisis: The Untold Story of the Iran Nuclear Scare . Follow him on Twitter @GarethPorter and listen to Gareth's previous appearances on the Scott Horton Show.

This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Kesslyn Runs , by Charles Featherstone; NoDev NoOps NoIT , by Hussein Badakhchani; The War State , by Mike Swanson; WallStreetWindow.com ; Tom Woods' Liberty Classroom ; ExpandDesigns.com/Scott ; and LibertyStickers.com .

Donate to the show through Patreon , PayPal , or Bitcoin: 1Ct2FmcGrAGX56RnDtN9HncYghXfvF2GAh.

[Aug 02, 2019] 1952: Mosaddeq Nationalization of Iran's Oil Industry Leads to Coup

Aug 02, 2019 | www.unz.com

James N. Kennett , says: August 1, 2019 at 12:41 am GMT

@lysias

I wonder how Eisenhower was persuaded to permit the 1953 coup in Iran.

The British wanted to preserve BP's oil concessions in Iran, but MI6 was not powerful enough to stage a coup without help from the CIA. So the Brits pretended that Mosaddegh leaned towards the Soviets, and the Americans pretended to believe them.

After the coup, the Shah's government transferred the majority of BP's rights to American oil companies. It would have been much better for the Brits if they had done a deal with Mosaddegh.

renfro , says: August 2, 2019 at 5:29 am GMT
@James N. Kennett 1952: Mosaddeq Nationalization of Iran's Oil Industry Leads to Coup

Time Magazine's Man of the Year cover for 1951. Mohammad Mosaddeq
]
Iranian President Mohammad Mosaddeq moves to nationalize the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company in order to ensure that more oil profits remain in Iran. His efforts to democratize Iran had already earned him being named Time Magazine's Man of the Year for 1951. After he nationalizes it, Mosaddeq realizes that Britain may want to overthrow his government, so he closes the British Embassy and sends all British civilians, including its intelligence operatives, out of the country.

Britain finds itself with no way to stage the coup it desires, so it approaches the American intelligence community for help. Their first approach results in abject failure when Harry Truman throws the British representatives out of his office, stating that "We don't overthrow governments; the United States has never done this before, and we're not going to start now."

After Eisenhower is elected in November 1952, the British have a much more receptive audience, and plans for overthrowing Mosaddeq are produced. The British intelligence operative who presents the idea to the Eisenhower administration later will write in his memoirs, "If I ask the Americans to overthrow Mosaddeq in order to rescue a British oil company, they are not going to respond. This is not an argument that's going to cut much mustard in Washington. I've got to have a different argument. I'm going to tell the Americans that Mosaddeq is leading Iran towards Communism." This argument wins over the Eisenhower administration, who promptly decides to organize a coup in Iran (see August 19, 1953). [Stephen Kinzer, 7/29/2003]

Entity Tags: Dwight Eisenhower, Harry S. Truman, Muhammad Mosaddeq

Timeline Tags: US confrontation with Iran, US-Iran (1952-1953)

[Jul 31, 2019] Craig Murray worked on the laws of the sea. He calls the British heist of an Iran tanker illegal

Jul 31, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

Petri Krohn , Jul 28 2019 19:46 utc | 2

Other issues:

Craig Murray worked on the laws of the sea. He calls the British heist of an Iran tanker illegal:
Tanker Seizures and the Threat to the Global Economy from Resurgent Imperialism

We still do not know how, when and where the Iranian tanker was captured. There are two mutually exclusive narratives.

1) Grace 1 "freely navigated into UK territorial waters" as Jeremy Hunt claims.

2) The capture of Grace 1 was ordered by the US long before Grace 1 entered the Strait. Panama revoked the ship's registration and Gibraltar changed its sanction laws.

Would the US know weeks in advance that Grace 1 is about to stop in Gibraltar? On the other hand, If Grace 1 had known that its registration had been revoked, would it not have avoided British waters.

I suspect Grace 1 was captured out on the Atlantic, days before the news was made public. The Royal Marines would then reprogram the automatic identification system (AIS) to show Gibraltar as the destination. We still have not heard from the crew. What is their story?

Thanks for the link to Craig Murray 's article. I have been collecting sources and analysis on the tanker seizures here .

Jen , Jul 28 2019 23:08 utc | 8

Petri Krohn @ 2:

If you know which shipping company owns a certain cargo ship or tanker, you can usually look up that company's database and find the ship's scheduled voyage. This is crucial knowledge because usually cargo ships will be carrying several lots of cargo to be offloaded at ports along the way, and new cargo taken on at the same time, so importers and exporters need to know exactly when the ship docks at X place and when it leaves. It would be very easy for the UK or the US to know in advance when the Grace 1 docks at Gibraltar; they only need to know who owns the tanker, find the owner's website and look up the schedules of all the owner's ships.

See here an example of how a company can choose a ship and a schedule that fits in with its import / export schedules. Another example here.

In fact the Grace 1 tanker might not have been the specific target; as long as there was a ship purportedly carrying Iranian oil passing through the Straits of Gibraltar, it would have been fair game. So all the British would have needed to know is which tanker or tankers from the Middle East would have been scheduled to dock in at Gibraltar and they get that information from the relevant port authorities.

[Jul 30, 2019] Misallocation of resources due to cheap debt: Uber, Lyft, WeWork and AirBnb have caused plenty of deflation by constantly raising money to operate at a loss. Cheap debt enabled a fracking boom that's flooded the oil market.

Jul 30, 2019 | www.zerohedge.com

Authored by Omid Malekan via Medium.com,

Economics is the only profession where the more an idea fails, the more it is believed. Consider the following theory:

Low interest rates lead to higher growth and higher inflation.

If it were true, then a decade of the lowest rates in recorded history would have seen the global economy go gangbusters. Instead it's been mostly the opposite, leading any reasonable person to at least question this theory.

But wait a second! A wunderkind econ whippersnapper fresh from Davos interrupts.

If not for low interest rates, things would have been even worse!

This kind of defensive argument is popular among failed forecasters. And to be fair, I can't prove that it isn't true and low rates didn't prevent some unforeseen calamity. That's the beauty of the Hyperbolic Avoided Hypothetical (HAH! for short) and why it has become a favorite of the Central Banking elite. But it's junk science, because you can't disprove it either. For example: I just used my superpowers to prevent a zombie apocalypse. Go ahead and prove that I didn't. ( Do you see any zombies? No? You're welcome. )

These twin tendencies of believing an idea that keeps disappointing and justifying it with all the worse outcomes that didn't happen are the pillars of the global liquidity trap that is slowly pulling us all under. Ten years ago, there was a plausible theory that lower rates were a good idea. When they failed, rates were taken to zero (zero interest rate policy, or ZIRP). When that failed, they were taken negative (negative interest rate policy, or NIRP). At no point was it ever even considered that maybe, just maybe, it's the theory that's wrong.

My belief is that in the short term, artificially low rates are deflationary, as they result in investing booms that create excess capacity and misallocation of resources that hurts growth. Uber, Lyft, WeWork and AirBnb have caused plenty of deflation by constantly raising money to operate at a loss. Cheap debt enabled a fracking boom that's flooded the oil market. Public companies that can borrow for nothing are more likely to spend that money on buybacks than wages.

Hangnjudge , 4 minutes ago link

Liquidity Trap

The gift that keeps giving

11 years and growing

thereasonableinvestor , 3 minutes ago link

Negative Rates Are Helping Deutsche Bank Stay Alive

[Jul 29, 2019] Tehran Urges China To Buy More Iranian Oil As It Feasts On Saudi Crude

Notable quotes:
"... China's crude shipments from Iran totaled 855,638 tons last month, which averages to 208,205 barrels per day (bpd), compared with 254,016 bpd in May, according figures from the General Administration of Customs, cited in a recent Reuters report . ..."
"... Iran's Vice President Jahangiri made the appeal to Beijing and "friendly" countries to up their Iranian crude purchases in statements Monday. "Even though we are aware that friendly countries such as China are facing some restrictions, we expect them to be more active in buying Iranian oil ," Jahangiri reportedly told visiting senior Chinese diplomat Song Tao. He said this while also on Monday issuing a statement saying Iran stood ready to "confront" American aggression in the region and that multilateralism must be upheld. ..."
Jul 29, 2019 | www.zerohedge.com

Following China's crude imports from Iran plunging this summer, sinking almost 60% in June compared to a year earlier - which corresponded to Washington shutting down the waiver program in May - leaders in Tehran are urging China to buy more Iranian oil .

China's crude shipments from Iran totaled 855,638 tons last month, which averages to 208,205 barrels per day (bpd), compared with 254,016 bpd in May, according figures from the General Administration of Customs, cited in a recent Reuters report .

Iran's Vice President Jahangiri made the appeal to Beijing and "friendly" countries to up their Iranian crude purchases in statements Monday. "Even though we are aware that friendly countries such as China are facing some restrictions, we expect them to be more active in buying Iranian oil ," Jahangiri reportedly told visiting senior Chinese diplomat Song Tao. He said this while also on Monday issuing a statement saying Iran stood ready to "confront" American aggression in the region and that multilateralism must be upheld.

"The foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran is to protect multilateralism and confront American hegemony," Jahangiri said , according to the IRIB news agency.

He added that Iran's recent move to breach uranium enrichment caps could be reversed should other parties return to upholding their side of the nuclear agreement.

Simultaneously, China's oil purchases from Iran's rival Saudi Arabia have soared to record volume , totaling 1.89 million barrels a day last month, according to numbers cited in Bloomberg . "Shipments from the OPEC producer made up almost a fifth of its total oil purchases in June and was 64% higher than the previous month," while at the same time "Imports from Iran fell to the lowest since May 2010," according to Bloomberg .

Meanwhile, in a crucial development related to Iran's trying to weather the severe US-led sanctions storm, a long anticipated plan for gasoline export has begun with an inaugural shipment to neighboring Afghanistan.

State media reported the following on Monday :

The Fars news agency said on Monday that a first consignment of export gasoline will start trading in Iran's Energy Exchange (IRENEX) later this week .

It said some 10,000 tons of gasoline with octane number of 91 will be available for sale to Afghanistan through IRENEX on Wednesday, adding that the trade will take place both in the Iranian rial and in major international currencies.

Iran's refining capacity has grown significantly over the past years as the country slashed fuel imports while also coping with increased domestic demand.

Officials have expressed hope that Iraq along with Afghanistan, as well as Caspian Sea countries would become main destinations for gasoline export.


Noob678 , 10 minutes ago link

India totally stop buying Iranian oil despite being an ally to Iran. China is still buying regardless of US sanction against their companies and CEOs.

cashback , 11 minutes ago link

A country knocking on the doors of other countries to be able to sell it's product to sustain it's economy and support it's population all the while "civilized, humane, peaceful, and law abiding" people in the west enjoying their lives at the expense of the very same people who they insult for not being able to stole the way they did, arguing and trying to convince everyone else how Mullah's are oppressing their people while they're trying to help.

Welcome to the civilized world.

schroedingersrat , 4 minutes ago link

We were never civilized outside the west's borders. The west pillages, murders, enslaves and plunders since the beginning of civilisation.

KekistanisUnite , 15 minutes ago link

China will buy more Iranian oil and so will Russia. They will have the last word whilst the US empire will be the laughing stock of the world (well it already is).

earthling1 , 26 minutes ago link

China and Russia will support Iran up to and including WW3.

Iran is a crucial link in the OBOR/New Silk Road, which in turn MUST succeed for the survival of all three nations.

If Iran falls victim to the global cabal, war is certain and Putin has already stated: if there is no mother Russia, there will be no world.

But don't worry friends, it will all be over with quicker than an asteroid out of nowhere.

None of us will ever see the end coming. Nothing to see or do here. Move along, be happy.

Blue2B , 28 minutes ago link

Cruelty and Stupidity are the hallmarks of moves this century.

"What's Iran to do? It seems straightforward. Respond in kind but no more than in kind to aggression on Iran's interests, make sure the craven Trumpists and allies realize Iran isn't kidding about shutting down resource shipments through the Persian Gulf and the destruction of the vast petroleum infrastructure in the Persian Gulf if Iran is attacked militarily, and above all remain cool headed and patient. The US empire is beginning to implode."

https://en.mehrnews.com/news/148138/Cruelty-and-stupidity-are-the-hallmarks-of-US-moves-this-century

Sofa King , 31 minutes ago link

OK so last week there was millions of barrels of Iranian oil sitting in storage tanks in China but has not officially changed hands because of sanctions. Today imports from Iran to China have plunged. Do you not see the correlation? It was in your own ******* article. Do you even read some of the **** you publish?

I miss Marla...**** was straight when she was around.

hola dos cola , 5 minutes ago link

See what you mean re: Marla. Nowadays most articles get published on the merit of fitting an agenda, beyond that content seems irrelevant. And I'm not sure 'Tyler' even knows there is an active comment section, if you see what I mean.

The Chinese have planned for (and thus probably will achieve) a SPR holding 90 days of oil. They are past 60, maybe already past 70 these days.

... ~not good~...

Real Estate Guru , 32 minutes ago link

Let's take a look at what is happening around the world....

China is in trouble.

Iran is in trouble.

Venezuela is in trouble.

The UK, France, etc is beat up for past mistakes.

Mexico is in trouble.

... ... ...

Deep Snorkeler , 34 minutes ago link

The Globe is Forming Trading Blocs Against Us

petrodollar privilege is under attack

American export goods are shunned

our friends pretend to like us

Trump's sanctions and trade wars are backfiring

America is obese and rotting

datbedank , 32 minutes ago link

Petrodollar is dead, get with the times!

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-03/how-petrodollar-quietly-died-and-nobody-noticed

Oil consumption is flat thanks to engine improvements. The turd world (Russia included) is nervous because their oil welfare is going to come to an end.

Deep Snorkeler , 30 minutes ago link

As an American, I feel embarrassed to walk the Champs Elysee.

He–Mene Mox Mox , 35 minutes ago link

It would be pretty tough for the U.S. to enforce any sanctions, if China agreed to buy more oil from Iran. And there is no way the U.S. can stop them, once the Belt and Road system is completed through the Middle East region. And since China has already lined up 152 countries to cooperate in the BRI, it is extremely difficult for the U.S. to deny them a shot at improving their economies, especially when it comes to the subject of Iran.

Edward Morbius , 39 minutes ago link

The "King of Debt" is also the "King of Tariffs (taxes)".

The "stable genius" is now going to to put tariffs on French wine. Epic jackassery.

frankthecrank , 42 minutes ago link

So much for the "China and Russia will save Iran" crowd's desperate assertions. Russia does not want VZ or Iranian crude on the market as it will push oil prices even lower. As I said, there will be no WW3 over Iran. There will be no grand assemblage of minor states over Iran. Iran is on its own.

[Jul 22, 2019] I found out that the average dollar that actually was invested abroad by oil companies was recaptured by the US economy within 18 months. The payback period was that fast.

Notable quotes:
"... I thought all these foreign countries were international." He explained that "international" means countries that are not really countries. They're Liberia and Panama, countries that only use the US dollar, not their own currency. So the oil industry doesn't have a currency risk. They are flags of convenience and they don't have any income tax. ..."
"... He explained to me that Standard Oil sold its oil at a very low price from the Near East to Liberia or Panama or Lagos, or wherever they have a flag of convenience and no income tax. Then they would sell it at a very high price to its refineries in Europe and America, at such a high price that these "downstream" affiliates don't make any income. So there's no tax to pay. ..."
"... Standard Oil and other U.S. oil companies – and also mining companies – don't earn an income there, because they sell it so low, all the profits are reported to be taken in Liberia or Panama. These are non-countries. ..."
"... Here is a report. I'm from the State Department (I assumed that this meant CIA). "We want to calculate how much money the US could get if we set up bank branches and became the bank for all the criminal capital in the world." He said, "We figured out we can finance, (and he said this in an elevator), we can finance the Vietnam War with all the drug money coming into America, all of the criminal money. Can you make a calculation of how much that might be?" ..."
"... I found that the entire US balance of payments deficit in the 1960s, since the Vietnam War, the entire balance of payments deficit was military spending abroad. The private sector's trade and investment was exactly in balance; tourism, trade and investment were exactly in balance. All the deficit was military. ..."
"... Mr. Barsanti said that McNamara said that Arthur Andersen would never get another government contract if it published my report. ..."
"... There were three people, known as the Columbia Group, saying the Vietnam War was going to destroy the American monetary system as we know it. The group was composed of Terence McCarthy, my mentor; Seymour Melman, a professor at Columbia University's School of Industrial Engineering where Terence also taught; and myself. We would basically go around the New York City giving speeches. ..."
Jul 22, 2019 | www.nakedcapitalism.com

mauisurfer , July 21, 2019 at 6:33 pm

Re: Michael Hudson, SuperImperialism

Here is a recent interview where MH reviews his book.

https://michael-hudson.com/2019/06/food-blackmail-the-washington-consensus-and-freedom/

And here is a wonderful autobiographical article

https://michael-hudson.com/2018/08/life-thought-an-autobiography/

a quote (hope it is not too long for you)

I worked at Chase Manhattan until 1967, then finally I had to quit to finish the dissertation. I spent a year on that. At Chase I had become the specialist in the oil industry's balance of payments. When the Vietnam War began and escalated, President Johnson in January 1965, right after I joined the bank in December 1964, passed the voluntary – in reality, compulsory – foreign investment rules blocking American companies from investing more than 5% of the growth of the previous year's investment. The oil industry objected to that. They came to David Rockefeller and said we've got to convince the government that we're ripping off other countries so fast, we're able to exploit them so rapidly, that it really helps the US balance of payments to let us continue investing more abroad. Can you help us show this statistically?

So David Rockefeller asked me to do a study of the balance of payments of the oil industry. Rockefeller said, "We don't want to have Chase's oil and gas department do it, because they would be thought of as lobbyists. Nobody knows who you are, so you're neutral. We want to know what the real facts are, and if they're what we think they are, we'll publish what you write; if we don't like it we'll keep it to ourselves, but please just give us the facts." He said, "You can ask the oil companies all the questions you want. They will fill out the forms you design for a statistical accounting format. We'll give you a year to write it all up." To me this was wonderful. Oil was the key sector internationally. It turned out I found out that the average dollar that actually was invested abroad by oil companies was recaptured by the US economy within 18 months. The payback period was that fast.

The report that I wrote was put on the desk of every senator and every representative in the United States and I was celebrated for being the economist of the oil industry. So this taught me everything about the balance of payments which, as I said, is a topic that's not taught in any university. So I finished that, finished the dissertation, and then I developed a methodology for the overall US balance of payments. Most of the balance of payment statistics were changed when they designed the gross national product accounts. The accounts now treat exports and imports as if they were paid for fully for cash. So if you make a million dollars worth of grain exports, you are assumed to bring a million dollars into the economy. And if you export a million dollars of arms, of military, it all comes back.

What I found out is that only a portion actually of exports actually comes back. And imports have an even lower balance-of-payment costs as compared to their nominal valuation. For instance, all of America's oil imports are from American oil companies, so if you pay a hundred dollars for oil, maybe thirty dollars of that is profit, thirty dollars is compensation to American management, thirty dollars is the use of American exports to physical equipment, oil drilling equipment and others to produce the oil.

The closest people that I worked with for the study were at the Standard Oil Company, which was always very close to the Rockefellers, as you know. So I went over the statistics and I said, "In the balance of payments, I can't find where Standard Oil makes the profit. Does it make the profit by producing oil at the production end? Or does it make it selling it at the gas stations, at the retail sales end?" The treasurer of Standard Oil said, "Ah I can tell you where we make them. We make them right here in my office." I asked how. "What countries could I find this in? I don't find it in Europe, I don't find it in Asia, I don't find it in Latin America or Africa." He said, "Ah, do you see at the very end of the geography headings for international earnings, there's something called international?"

I said, "Yes that always confused me. Where is it? I thought all these foreign countries were international." He explained that "international" means countries that are not really countries. They're Liberia and Panama, countries that only use the US dollar, not their own currency. So the oil industry doesn't have a currency risk. They are flags of convenience and they don't have any income tax.

He explained to me that Standard Oil sold its oil at a very low price from the Near East to Liberia or Panama or Lagos, or wherever they have a flag of convenience and no income tax. Then they would sell it at a very high price to its refineries in Europe and America, at such a high price that these "downstream" affiliates don't make any income. So there's no tax to pay. For all US oil investment in Europe, there's no tax to pay because the oil companies' accountants price it so high, and pay so little per barrel to third world countries such as Saudi Arabia, that they only get a royalty. Standard Oil and other U.S. oil companies – and also mining companies – don't earn an income there, because they sell it so low, all the profits are reported to be taken in Liberia or Panama. These are non-countries.

That gave me the clue about what people these days talk about money laundering. In the last few months that I worked for Chase Manhattan in 1967, I was going up to my office on the ninth floor and a man got on the elevator and said, "I was just coming to your office, Michael. Here is a report. I'm from the State Department (I assumed that this meant CIA). "We want to calculate how much money the US could get if we set up bank branches and became the bank for all the criminal capital in the world." He said, "We figured out we can finance, (and he said this in an elevator), we can finance the Vietnam War with all the drug money coming into America, all of the criminal money. Can you make a calculation of how much that might be?"

So I spent three months figuring out how much money goes to Switzerland, from drug dealings, what's the dollar volume of drug dealings. They helped me with all sorts of statistics on that, and said, "We can become the criminal capital of the world and it'll finance the dollar and this will enable us to afford the spending to defeat communism in Vietnam and elsewhere. If we don't do that, the bomb throwers will come to New York."

So I became a specialist in money laundering! Nothing could have better prepared me to understand how the global economy works! I had all the statistics, I had the help of the government people explaining to me how the CIA worked with drug dealing and other criminals and kidnappers to raise the money so it would be off the balance sheet funding and Congress didn't have to approve it when they would kill people and sponsor revolutions. They were completely open with me about this. I realized they'd never done a security check on me.

So I wanted to do a study of the balance of payments of the whole United States. I went to work for Arthur Andersen, which was at that time was one of the Big Five accounting firms in the United States. Later it was convicted of fraud when it got involved in the Enron scandal and was closed down. But I was working before the other people went to jail, before they closed down Arthur Andersen. So I spent a year applying my balance of payments analysis to the US balance of payments. When I finally finished, I found that the entire US balance of payments deficit in the 1960s, since the Vietnam War, the entire balance of payments deficit was military spending abroad. The private sector's trade and investment was exactly in balance; tourism, trade and investment were exactly in balance. All the deficit was military.

So I turned in my statistics. My boss Mr. Barsanti, came in to me three days later and he said, "I'm afraid we have to fire you." I asked, "What happened?" He said, "Well, we sent it to Robert McNamara." (who was the Secretary of Defense and then became an even more dangerous person with the World Bank, which probably is more dangerous to the world than the American military. But that's another story). Mr. Barsanti said that McNamara said that Arthur Andersen would never get another government contract if it published my report.

In all of the Pentagon Papers that later came out of McNamara's regime, there's no discussion at all of the balance-of-payments cost of the Vietnam War. This is what was driving America off gold. At Chase Manhattan from 1964 until I left, every Friday the Federal Reserve would come out with its goal, its weekly statistics. We could trace the gold stock. Everybody was talking about General de Gaulle cashing in the gold, because Vietnam was a French colony and the American soldiers and army would have to use French banks, the dollars would go to France and de Gaulle would cash it in for gold.

Well, Germany actually was cashing in more gold than de Gaulle, but they didn't make speeches about it. So I could see that the war spending was going to drive America off gold. There were three people, known as the Columbia Group, saying the Vietnam War was going to destroy the American monetary system as we know it. The group was composed of Terence McCarthy, my mentor; Seymour Melman, a professor at Columbia University's School of Industrial Engineering where Terence also taught; and myself. We would basically go around the New York City giving speeches.

[Jul 20, 2019] Western Interests Aim To Flummox Russia

Notable quotes:
"... One pressure on Putin comes from the Atlanticist Integrationists who have a material stake in their connections to the West and who want Russia to be integrated into the Western world. ..."
"... We agree with President Putin that the sanctions are in fact a benefit to Russia as they have moved Russia in self-sufficient directions and toward developing relationships with China and Asia. ..."
"... It is a self-serving Western myth that Russia needs foreign loans. This myth is enshrined in neoliberal economics, which is a device for Western exploitation and control of other countries. Russia's most dangerous threat is the country's neoliberal economists. ..."
"... Neoliberals argue that Russia needs privatization in order to cover its budget deficit. Russia's government debt is only 17 percent of Russian GDP. According to official measures, US federal debt is 104 percent of GDP, 6.1 times higher than in Russia. If US federal debt is measured in real corrected terms, US federal debt is 185 percent of US GDP. http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/07/08/deteriorating-economic-outlook/ ..."
"... Russia's most dangerous threat is the country's neoliberal economists. ..."
"... Most of Russia's economic block has to be literally purged from their sinecures, some, indeed, have to be "re-educated" near Magadan or Tyumen, or Saransk. Too bad, two of these places are actually not too bad. Others deserved to be executed. Too bad this jackass Gaidar (actually no blood relation to Arkady whatsoever) died before he could be tried for crimes against humanity and genocide. Albeit, some say he died because of his consciousness couldn't take the burden. Looking at his swine face I, somehow, doubt it. ..."
"... This is not a US vs Russia issue. The real conflict is ... Globalism vs Russian nationalism and American nationalism. But since Jews control the media, they've spread the impression that it's about US vs Russia. ..."
"... Trump is an ultra-zionist for Sheldon Adelson and prolongs & creates wars for the Goldman banking crimesyndicat. ..."
"... Voltaire once said, "To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize." ..."
"... You write about Russia but have not done your homework. Russia is very dependent on Western technology and its entire high-tech industry depends on the import of Western machinery. Without such machinery many Russian factories, including military ones, would stall. Very important oil industry is particularly vulnerable. ..."
Mar 03, 2017 | www.unz.com
An article by Robert Berke in oilprice.com, which describes itself as "The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News," illustrates how interest groups control outcomes by how they shape policy choices.

Berke's article reveals how the US intends to maintain and extend its hegemony by breaking up the alliance between Russia, Iran, and China, and by oil privatizations that result in countries losing control over their sovereignty to private oil companies that work closely with the US government. As Trump has neutered his presidency by gratuitously accepting Gen. Flynn's resignation as National Security Advisor, this scheme is likely to be Trump's approach to "better relations" with Russia.

Berke reports that Henry Kissinger has sold President Trump on a scheme to use the removal of Russian sanctions to pry President Putin away from the Russian alliance with Iran and China. Should Putin fall for such a scheme, it would be a fatal strategic blunder from which Russia could not recover. Yet, Putin will be pressured to make this blunder.

One pressure on Putin comes from the Atlanticist Integrationists who have a material stake in their connections to the West and who want Russia to be integrated into the Western world. Another pressure comes from the affront that sanctions represent to Russians. Removing this insult has become important to Russians even though the sanctions do Russia no material harm.

We agree with President Putin that the sanctions are in fact a benefit to Russia as they have moved Russia in self-sufficient directions and toward developing relationships with China and Asia. Moreover, the West with its hegemonic impulses uses economic relationships for control purposes. Trade with China and Asia does not pose the same threat to Russian independence.

Berke says that part of the deal being offered to Putin is "increased access to the huge European energy market, restored western financial credit, access to Western technology, and a seat at the global decision-making table, all of which Russia badly needs and wants." Sweetening the honey trap is official recognization of "Crimea as part of Russia."

Russia might want all of this, but it is nonsense that Russia needs any of it.

Crimea is part of Russia, as it has been for 300 years, and no one can do anything about it. What would it mean if Mexico did not recognize that Texas and California were part of the US? Nothing.

Europe has scant alternatives to Russian energy. Russia does not need Western technology. Indeed, its military technology is superior to that in the West. And Russia most certainly does not need Western loans. Indeed, it would be an act of insanity to accept them.

It is a self-serving Western myth that Russia needs foreign loans. This myth is enshrined in neoliberal economics, which is a device for Western exploitation and control of other countries. Russia's most dangerous threat is the country's neoliberal economists.

The Russian central bank has convinced the Russian government that it would be inflationary to finance Russian development projects with the issuance of central bank credit. Foreign loans are essential, claims the central bank.

Someone needs to teach the Russian central bank basic economics before Russia is turned into another Western vassal. Here is the lesson: When central bank credit is used to finance development projects, the supply of rubles increases but so does output from the projects. Thus, goods and services rise with the supply of rubles. When Russia borrows foreign currencies from abroad, the money supply also increases, but so does the foreign debt. Russia does not spend the foreign currencies on the project but puts them into its foreign exchange reserves. The central bank issues the same amount of rubles to pay the project's bills as it would in the absence of the foreign loan. All the foreign loan does is to present Russia with an interest payment to a foreign creditor.

Foreign capital is not important to countries such as Russia and China. Both countries are perfectly capable of financing their own development. Indeed, China is the world's largest creditor nation. Foreign loans are only important to countries that lack the internal resources for development and have to purchase the business know-how, techlology, and resources abroad with foreign currencies that their exports are insufficient to bring in.

This is not the case with Russia, which has large endowments of resources and a trade surplus. China's development was given a boost by US corporations that moved their production for the US market offshore in order to pocket the difference in labor and regulatory costs.

Neoliberals argue that Russia needs privatization in order to cover its budget deficit. Russia's government debt is only 17 percent of Russian GDP. According to official measures, US federal debt is 104 percent of GDP, 6.1 times higher than in Russia. If US federal debt is measured in real corrected terms, US federal debt is 185 percent of US GDP. http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/07/08/deteriorating-economic-outlook/

Clearly, if the massive debt of the US government is not a problem, the tiny debt of Russia is not a problem.

Berke's article is part of the effort to scam Russia by convincing the Russian government that its prosperity depends on unfavorable deals with the West. As Russia's neoliberal economists believe this, the scam has a chance of success.

Another delusion affecting the Russian government is the belief that privatization brings in capital. This delusion caused the Russian government to turn over 20 percent of its oil company to foreign ownership. The only thing Russia achieved by this strategic blunder was to deliver 20 percent of its oil profits into foreign hands. For a one-time payment, Russia gave away 20 percent of its oil profits in perpetuity.

To repeat outselves, the greatest threat that Russia faces is not sanctions but the incompetence of its neoliberal economists who have been throughly brainwashed to serve US interests.

Mao Cheng Ji , February 14, 2017 at 6:55 pm GMT \n

When Russia borrows foreign currencies from abroad, the money supply also increases, but so does the foreign debt. Russia does not spend the foreign currencies on the project but puts them into its foreign exchange reserves. The central bank issues the same amount of rubles to pay the project's bills as it would in the absence of the foreign loan. All the foreign loan does is to present Russia with an interest payment to a foreign creditor.

Yes, correct. But this is an IMF rule, and Russia is an IMF member. To control its monetary policy it would have to get out.

Lyttenburgh , February 14, 2017 at 6:57 pm GMT \n

Another pressure comes from the affront that sanctions represent to Russians. Removing this insult has become important to Russians even though the sanctions do Russia no material harm.

Oh dear, neolibs at their "finest"!

This "theory" is simply not true. If anything, Russians don't want the sanctions to be lifted, because this will also force us to scrap our counter-sanctions against the EU. The agro-business in Russia had been expanding by leaps and bounds for the last two years. This persistent myth that "the Russians" (who exactly, I wonder – 2-3% of the pro-Western urbanites in Moscow and St. Pete?) are desperate to have the sanctons lifted is a self-deception of the West, who IS desparate of the fact that the sanctions didn't work.

Russia's most dangerous threat is the country's neoliberal economists.

Yes! Ulyukayev is, probably, feeling lonely in his prison. I say – why not send Chubais, Siluanov and Nabiulina to cheer him up?

WorkingClass , February 14, 2017 at 7:59 pm GMT \n

Berke reports that Henry Kissinger has sold President Trump on a scheme to use the removal of Russian sanctions to pry President Putin away from the Russian alliance with Iran and China.

Kissinger, like Dick Cheney or George Soros, will probably never be completely dead.

SmoothieX12 , Website February 14, 2017 at 8:56 pm GMT \n
@WorkingClass
Berke reports that Henry Kissinger has sold President Trump on a scheme to use the removal of Russian sanctions to pry President Putin away from the Russian alliance with Iran and China.
Kissinger, like Dick Cheney or George Soros, will probably never be completely dead.

LOL! True. You forgot McCain, though.

SmoothieX12 , Website February 14, 2017 at 9:04 pm GMT \n
100 Words @Lyttenburgh
Another pressure comes from the affront that sanctions represent to Russians. Removing this insult has become important to Russians even though the sanctions do Russia no material harm.
Oh dear, neolibs at their "finest"! This "theory" is simply not true. If anything, Russians don't want the sanctions to be lifted, because this will also force us to scrap our counter-sanctions against the EU. The agro-business in Russia had been expanding by leaps and bounds for the last two years. This persistent myth that "the Russians" (who exactly, I wonder - 2-3% of the pro-Western urbanites in Moscow and St. Pete?) are desperate to have the sanctons lifted is a self-deception of the West, who IS desparate of the fact that the sanctions didn't work.
Russia's most dangerous threat is the country's neoliberal economists.
Yes! Ulyukayev is, probably, feeling lonely in his prison. I say - why not send Chubais, Siluanov and Nabiulina to cheer him up? ;)

I say – why not send Chubais, Siluanov and Nabiulina to cheer him up?

Most of Russia's economic block has to be literally purged from their sinecures, some, indeed, have to be "re-educated" near Magadan or Tyumen, or Saransk. Too bad, two of these places are actually not too bad. Others deserved to be executed. Too bad this jackass Gaidar (actually no blood relation to Arkady whatsoever) died before he could be tried for crimes against humanity and genocide. Albeit, some say he died because of his consciousness couldn't take the burden. Looking at his swine face I, somehow, doubt it.

Priss Factor , February 14, 2017 at 10:38 pm GMT \n
100 Words

A silver-lining to this.

If the US continues to antagonize Russia, Russia will have to grow even more independent, nationalist, and sovereign. At any rate, this issue cannot be addressed until we face that the fact that globalism is essentially Jewish Supremacism that fears gentile nationalism as a barrier to its penetration and domination.

This is not a US vs Russia issue. The real conflict is ... Globalism vs Russian nationalism and American nationalism. But since Jews control the media, they've spread the impression that it's about US vs Russia.

Same thing with this crap about 'white privilege'. It is a misleading concept to fool Americans into thinking that the main conflict is between 'privileged whites' and 'people of color'. It is really to hide the fact that Jewish power and privilege really rules the US. It is a means to hoodwink people from noticing that the real divide is between Jews and Gentiles, not between 'privileged whites' and 'non-white victims'. After all, too many whites lack privilege, and too many non-whites do very well in America.

Seamus Padraig , February 14, 2017 at 11:29 pm GMT \n
@SmoothieX12
I say – why not send Chubais, Siluanov and Nabiulina to cheer him up?

Most of Russia's economic block has to be literally purged from their sinecures, some, indeed, have to be "re-educated" near Magadan or Tyumen, or Saransk. Too bad, two of these places are actually not too bad. Others deserved to be executed. Too bad this jackass Gaidar (actually no blood relation to Arkady whatsoever) died before he could be tried for crimes against humanity and genocide. Albeit, some say he died because of his consciousness couldn't take the burden. Looking at his swine face I, somehow, doubt it.

I'm generally a big fan and admirer of Putin, but this is definitely one criticism of him that I have a lot of sympathy for. It is long past time for Putin to purge the neoliberals from the Kremlin and nationalize the Russian Central Bank. I cannot fathom why he hasn't done this already.

Seamus Padraig , February 14, 2017 at 11:34 pm GMT \n

Does PCR really think that Putin is stupid enough to fall for Kissinger's hair-brained scheme? I mean, give Putin a little bit of credit. He has so far completely outmaneuvered Washington on virtually ever subject. I'm sure he's clever enough to see through such a crude divide-and-rule strategy.

anonymous , February 15, 2017 at 4:17 am GMT

The Russians can't be flummoxed, they aren't children. Russia and China border each other so they have a natural mutual interest in having their east-west areas be stable and safe, particularly when the US threatens both of them. This geography isn't going to change. Abandoning clients such as Syria and Iran would irreversibly damage the Russian brand as being unreliable therefore they'd find it impossible to attract any others in the future. They know this so it's unlikely they would be so rash as to snap at any bait dangled in front of them. And, as pointed out, the bait really isn't all that irresistible. It's always best to negotiate from a position of strength and they realize that. American policy deep thinkers are often fantasists who bank upon their chess opponents making hoped-for predictable moves. That doesn't happen in real life.

SmoothieX12 , Website February 15, 2017 at 2:29 pm GMT \n
@Seamus Padraig

I'm generally a big fan and admirer of Putin, but this is definitely one criticism of him that I have a lot of sympathy for. It is long past time for Putin to purge the neoliberals from the Kremlin and nationalize the Russian Central Bank. I cannot fathom why he hasn't done this already.

I cannot fathom why he hasn't done this already.

Partially, because Putin himself is an economic liberal and, to a degree, monetarist, albeit less rigid than his economic block. The good choices he made often were opposite to his views. As he himself admitted that Russia's geopolitical vector changed with NATO's aggression against Yugoslavia–a strengthening of Russia has become an imperative. This comeback was impossible within the largely "Western" monetarist economic model. Russia's comeback happened not thanks but despite Putin's economic views, Putin adjusted his views in the process, his economic block didn't. But many of them still remain his friends, despite the fact that many of them are de facto fifth column and work against Russia, intentionally and other wise. Eventually Putin will be forced to get down from his fence and take the position of industrialists and siloviki. Putin's present for Medvedev's birthday was a good hint on where he is standing economically today and I am beginning to like that but still–I personally am not convinced yet. We'll see. In many respects Putin was lucky and specifically because of the namely Soviet military and industry captains still being around–people who, unlike Putin, knew exactly what constituted Russia's strength. Enough to mention late Evgeny Primakov. Let's not forget that despite Putin's meteoric rise through the top levels of Russia's state bureaucracy, including his tenure as a Director of FSB, Putin's background is not really military-industrial. He is a lawyer, even if uniformed (KGB) part of his career. I know for a fact that initially (early 2000s) he was overwhelmed with the complexity of Russia's military and industry. Enough to mention his creature Serdyukov who almost destroyed Command and Control structure of Russia's Armed Forces and main ideologue behind Russia's military "reform", late Vitaly Shlykov who might have been a great GRU spy (and economist by trade) but who never served a day in combat units. Thankfully, the "reforms" have been stopped and Russian Armed Forces are still dealing with the consequences. This whole clusterfvck was of Putin's own creation–hardly a good record on his resume. Hopefully, he learned.

Vlad , February 17, 2017 at 8:44 am GMT \n
@Seamus Padraig

I'm generally a big fan and admirer of Putin, but this is definitely one criticism of him that I have a lot of sympathy for. It is long past time for Putin to purge the neoliberals from the Kremlin and nationalize the Russian Central Bank. I cannot fathom why he hasn't done this already.

He has not done it already because he just cannot let go of his dream to have it as he did in 2003, when Russia Germany and France together blocked legality of US war in Iraq. Putin still hopes for a good working relationship with major West European powers. Italy France and even Germany.

He still hopes to draw them away from the US. However the obvious gains from Import substitution campaign make it apparent that Russia does benefit from sanctions, that Russia can get anything it wants in technology from the East rather than the West. So the break with Western orientation is in the making. Hopefully.

annamaria , February 17, 2017 at 3:50 pm GMT \n

You forgot to mention the "moderate" jihadis, including the operatives from NATO, Israel, and US. (It seems that the Ukrainian "patriots" that have been bombing the civilians in East Ukraine, also include special "patriots" from the same unholy trinity: https://www.roguemoney.net/stories/2016/12/6/there-are-troops-jack-us-army-donbass ). There has been also a certain asymmetry in means: look at the map for the number and location of the US/NATO military bases. At least we can see that RF has been trying to avoid the hot phase of WWIII. http://russia-insider.com/sites/insider/files/NATO-vs-Russia640.jpg

annamaria , February 17, 2017 at 4:11 pm GMT \n
200 Words @Priss Factor A silver-lining to this.

If the US continues to antagonize Russia, Russia will have to grow even more independent, nationalist, and sovereign.

At any rate, this issue cannot be addressed until we face that the fact that globalism is essentially Jewish Supremacism that fears gentile nationalism as a barrier to its penetration and domination.

This is not a US vs Russia issue. The real conflict is Jewish Globalism vs Russian nationalism and American nationalism. But since Jews control the media, they've spread the impression that it's about US vs Russia.

Same thing with this crap about 'white privilege'. It is a misleading concept to fool Americans into thinking that the main conflict is between 'privileged whites' and 'people of color'. It is really to hide the fact that Jewish power and privilege really rules the US. It is a means to hoodwink people from noticing that the real divide is between Jews and Gentiles, not between 'privileged whites' and 'non-white victims'. After all, too many whites lack privilege, and too many non-whites do very well in America.

On the power and privilege that really rule the US:
"Sanctions – economic sanctions, as most of them are, can only stand and 'succeed', as long as countries, who oppose Washington's dictate remain bound into the western, dollar-based, fraudulent monetary scheme. The system is entirely privatized by a small Zionist-led elite. FED, Wall Street, Bank for International Settlement (BIS), are all private institutions, largely controlled by the Rothschild, Rockefeller, Morgan et al clans. They are also supported by the Breton Woods Organizations, IMF and World Bank, conveniently created under the Charter of the UN.
Few progressive economists understand how this debt-based pyramid scam is manipulating the entire western economic system. When in a just world, it should be just the contrary, the economy that shapes, designs and decides the functioning of the monetary system and policy.
Even Russia, with Atlantists still largely commanding the central bank and much of the financial system, isn't fully detached from the dollar dominion – yet."

http://thesaker.is/venezuela-washingtons-latest-defamation-to-bring-nato-to-south-america/

Anon , February 17, 2017 at 4:55 pm GMT \n
100 Words

"I cannot fathom why he hasn't done this (nationalize the "central bank) already".

I read about a rumor a few years ago that Putin has been warned that nationalizing the now private Russian central bank will bring absolutely dire consequences to both him and Russia. It is simply a step he cannot take.

How dire are the potential consequences? Consider that the refusal of the American government to reauthorize the private central bank in the US brought about the War of 1812. The Americans learned their lesson and quickly reauthorized the private bank after the war had ended.

Numerous attempts were made to assassinate President Andrew Jacksons specifically because of his refusal to reauthorize the private central bank.

JFK anyone?

Agent76 , February 17, 2017 at 6:07 pm GMT \n
100 Words

Here it is in audio form so you can just relax and just listen at your leisure.

*ALL WARS ARE BANKERS' WARS* By Michael Rivero https://youtu.be/WN0Y3HRiuxo

I know many people have a great deal of difficulty comprehending just how many wars are started for no other purpose than to force private central banks onto nations, so let me share a few examples, so that you understand why the US Government is mired in so many wars against so many foreign nations. There is ample precedent for this.

Priss Factor , February 17, 2017 at 7:31 pm GMT \n
1,000 Words

Here is proof that there is no real Leftist power anymore.

Voltaire once said, "To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize."

If the Left really rules America, how come it is fair game to criticize, condemn, mock, and vilify Marx, Lenin, Trotsky, Stalin, Bakunin, Emma Goldman & anarchists, Castro, Che(even though he is revered by many, one's career isn't damaged by attacking him), Tito, Ceucescu, Mao, Ho Chi Minh, Gramsci, Eurgene Debs, Pete Seeger, Abbie Hoffman, Bill Ayers, and etc.

You can say whatever you want about such people. Some will agree, some will disagree, but you will not be fired, blacklisted, or destroyed.

If the Left really rules, why would this be?

Now, what would happen if you name the Jewish Capitalists as the real holders of power?
What would happen if you name the Jewish oligarchic corporatists who control most of media?
What would happen if you said Jews are prominent in the vice industry of gambling?
What would happen if you named the Jewish capitalists in music industry that made so much money by spreading garbage?
What would happen if you said Jewish warhawks were largely responsible for the disasters in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Ukraine?
And what would happen if you were question the MLK mythology and cult?
What would happen if you were to make fun of homos and trannies?
Now, keep in mind that blacks and homos are favored by Jews as their main allies.
(Some say the US is not a pro-minority nation, but it's still permissible to criticize, impugn, and vilify Chinese, Iranians, Muslims, Mexicans, Hindus, and etc. Trump was hard on China, Iran, Muslims, and Mexicans, and he got some flak over it but not enough to destroy him. Now, imagine what would have happened if he'd said such things about blacks, Africa, homos, Jews, and Israel? American politics isn't necessarily pro-minority. If it is, it should favor Palestinian-Americans just as much as Jewish-Americans. Actually, since there are fewer Palestinian-Americans than Jewish-Americans, the US, being pro-minority, should favor Palestinians over Jews in America. In reality, it is AIPAC that draws all the politicians. America is about Pro-Power, and since Jews have the Power and since Jews are a minority, it creates the false impression that the US is a minority-supremacist nation. But WHICH minority? Jews would like for us think that all minorities are represented equally in the US, but do Eskimos, Hawaiians, Guatemalans, Vietnamese, and etc. have the kind of power & protection that the Jewish minority has? Do we see politicians and powerbrokers flock to such minorities for funds and favors?)

So, what does it about the real power in America? So many 'conservatives' say the Left controls America. But in fact, an American can badmouth all true bonafide leftist leaders and thinkers(everyone from Lenin to Sartre). However, if an American were to badmouth Sheldon Adelson as a sick demented Zionist capitalist oligarch who wants to nuke Iran, he would be blacklisted by the most of the media. (If one must criticize Adelson, it has to be in generic terms of him a top donor to the likes of Romney. One mustn't discuss his zealous and maniacal views rooted in Zionist-supremacism. You can criticize his money but not the mentality that determines the use of that money.) Isn't it rather amusing how the so-called Liberals denounce the GOP for being 'extreme' but overlook the main reason for such extremism? It's because the GOP relies on Zionist lunatics like Adelson who thinks Iran should be nuked to be taught a lesson. Even Liberal Media overlook this fact. Also, it's interesting that the Liberal Media are more outraged by Trump's peace offer to Russia than Trump's hawkish rhetoric toward Iran. I thought Liberals were the Doves.

We know why politics and media work like this. It's not about 'left' vs 'right' or 'liberal' vs 'conservative'. It is really about Jewish Globalist Dominance. Jews, neocon 'right' or globo-'left', hate Russia because its brand of white gentile nationalism is an obstacle to Jewish supremacist domination. Now, Current Russia is nice to Jews, and Jews can make all the money they want. But that isn't enough for Jews. Jews want total control of media, government, narrative, everything. If Jews say Russia must have homo parades and 'gay marriage', Russia better bend over because its saying NO means that it is defiant to the Jewish supremacist agenda of using homomania as proxy to undermine and destroy all gentile nationalism rooted in identity and moral righteousness.
Russia doesn't allow that, and that is what pisses off Jews. For Jews, the New Antisemitism is defined as denying them the supremacist 'right' to control other nations. Classic antisemitism used to mean denying Jews equal rights under the law. The New Antisemitism means Jews are denied the right to gain dominance over others and dictate terms.
So, that is why Jews hate any idea of good relations with Russia. But Jews don't mind Trump's irresponsible anti-Iran rhetoric since it serves Zionist interest. So, if Trump were to say, "We shouldn't go to war with Russia; we should be friends" and "We should get ready to bomb, destroy, and even nuke Iran", the 'liberal' media would be more alarmed by the Peace-with-Russia statement. Which groups controls the media? 'Liberals', really? Do Muslim 'liberals' agree with Jewish 'liberals'?

Anyway, we need to do away with the fiction that Left rules anything. They don't. We have Jewish Supremacist rule hiding behind the label of the 'Left'. But the US is a nation where it's totally permissible to attack real leftist ideas and leaders but suicidal if anyone dares to discuss the power of super-capitalist Jewish oligarchs. Some 'leftism'!

We need to discuss the power of the Glob.

annamaria , February 17, 2017 at 9:42 pm GMT \n
300 Words @Quartermaster Trump has not been neutered. Buchanan has the right on this and Flynn's actions.

Sorry, but Crimea is Ukraine. Russia is in serious economic decline and is rapidly burning through its reserves. Putin is almost down to the welfare fund from which pensions are paid, and only about a third of pensions are being paid now.

If Sanctions are of benefit to Russia, then the sanctions against Imperial Japan were just ducky and no war was fought.

Roberts is the next best thing to insane.

This is rich from a Ukrainian nationalist ruled by Groysman/Kagans.
First, figure out who is your saint, a collaborationist Bandera (Babiy Yar and such) or a triple-sitizenship Kolomojski (auto-da-fe of civilians in Odessa). If you still want to bring Holodomor to a discussion, then you need to be reminded that 80% of Ukrainian Cheka at that time were Jewish. If you still think that Russians are the root of all evil, then try to ask the US for more money for pensions, education, and healthcare – instead of weaponry. Here are the glorious results of the US-approved governance from Kiev: http://gnnliberia.com/2017/02/17/liberia-ahead-ukraine-index-economic-freedom-2017/ "Liberia, Chad, Afghanistan, Sudan and Angola are ahead of Ukraine. All these countries are in the group of repressed economies (49.9-40 scores). Ukraine's economy has contracted deeply and remains very fragile."

Here are your relationships with your neighbors on the other side – Poland and Romania:
"The right-winged conservative orientation of Warsaw makes it remember old Polish-Ukrainian arguments and scores, and claim its rights on the historically Polish lands of Western Ukraine" http://www.veteranstoday.com/2016/01/17/poland-will-begin-dividing-ukraine/
" the "Assembly of Bukovina Romanians" has recently applied to Petro Poroshenko demanding a territorial autonomy to the Chernivtsi region densely populated by Romanians. The "Assembly" motivated its demand with the Ukrainian president's abovementioned statement urging territorial autonomy for the Crimean Tatars." https://eadaily.com/en/news/2016/06/30/what-is-behind-romanias-activity-in-ukraine
And please read some history books about Crimea. Or at least Wikipedia:
"In 1783, Crimea was annexed by the Russian Empire. In 1954, the Crimean Oblast was transferred to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic by Nikita Khrushchev (a Soviet dictator). In 2014, a 96.77 percent of Crimeans voted for integration of the region into the Russian Federation with an 83.1 percent voter turnout." You see, the Crimeans do not like Nuland-Kagan and Pravyj Sector. Do you know why?

Astuteobservor II , February 17, 2017 at 9:56 pm GMT \n
100 Words @Seamus Padraig Does PCR really think that Putin is stupid enough to fall for Kissinger's hair-brained scheme? I mean, give Putin a little bit of credit. He has so far completely outmaneuvered Washington on virtually ever subject. I'm sure he's clever enough to see through such a crude divide-and-rule strategy.

well it depends. if putin is just out for himself, I can see him getting in bed with kissinger and co. if he is about russia, he would not. that is how I see it. it isn't about if putin is smart or stupid. just a choice and where his royalty lies.

Lyttenburgh , February 17, 2017 at 9:58 pm GMT \n
100 Words @Quartermaster Trump has not been neutered. Buchanan has the right on this and Flynn's actions.

Sorry, but Crimea is Ukraine. Russia is in serious economic decline and is rapidly burning through its reserves. Putin is almost down to the welfare fund from which pensions are paid, and only about a third of pensions are being paid now.

If Sanctions are of benefit to Russia, then the sanctions against Imperial Japan were just ducky and no war was fought.

Roberts is the next best thing to insane.

Sorry, but Crimea is Ukraine.

How so? #Krymnash

Russia is in serious economic decline and is rapidly burning through its reserves.

If by "decline" you mean "expects this year a modest growth as opposed to previous years" then you might be right.

I've been reading about Russia's imminent collapse and the annihilation of the economy since forever. Some no-names like you (or some Big Names with agenda) had been predicting it every year. Still didn't happen.

Putin is almost down to the welfare fund from which pensions are paid, and only about a third of pensions are being paid now.

Can I see a source for that?

If Sanctions are of benefit to Russia, then the sanctions against Imperial Japan were just ducky and no war was fought.

False equivalence.

P.S. Hey, Quart – how is Bezviz? Also – are you not cold here? Or are you one of the most racally pure Ukrs, currently residing in Ontario province (Canada), from whence you teach your less lucky raguls in Nizalezhnaya how to be more racially pure? Well, SUGS to be you!

bluedog , February 17, 2017 at 10:03 pm GMT \n
@Quartermaster Trump has not been neutered. Buchanan has the right on this and Flynn's actions.

Sorry, but Crimea is Ukraine. Russia is in serious economic decline and is rapidly burning through its reserves. Putin is almost down to the welfare fund from which pensions are paid, and only about a third of pensions are being paid now.

If Sanctions are of benefit to Russia, then the sanctions against Imperial Japan were just ducky and no war was fought.

Roberts is the next best thing to insane.

Do you have any links to verify this that Russia is down to bedrock,from everything I read and have read Russia's do pretty damn good, or is this just some more of your endless antiRussian propaganda,,

Philip Owen , February 17, 2017 at 10:54 pm GMT \n

The US needed huge amounts of British and French capital to develop. Russia has the same requirement otherwise it will be another Argentina.

annamaria , February 17, 2017 at 11:00 pm GMT \n
500 Words

A scandal of a EU member Poland: http://thesaker.is/zmiana-piskorski-and-the-case-for-polish-liberation/
Two days after he [Piskorski] publicly warned that US-NATO troops now have a mandate to suppress Polish dissent on the grounds of combatting "Russian hybrid war," he was snatched up by armed agents of Poland's Internal Security Agency while taking his children to school on May 18th, 2016. He was promptly imprisoned in Warsaw, where he remains with no formal charges to this day."

With the Poland's entry into EU, "Poland did not "regain" sovereignty, much less justice, but forfeited such to the Atlanticist project Poland has been de-industrialized, and thus deprived of the capacity to pursue independent and effective social and economic policies Now, with the deployment of thousands of US-NATO troops, tanks, and missile systems on its soil and the Polish government's relinquishment of jurisdiction over foreign armed forces on its territory, Poland is de facto under occupation. This occupation is not a mere taxation on Poland's national budget – it is an undeniable liquidation of sovereignty and inevitably turns the country into a direct target and battlefield in the US' provocative war on Russia."

" it's not the Russians who are going to occupy us now – they left here voluntarily 24 years ago. It's not the Russians that have ravaged Polish industry since 1989. It's not the Russians that have stifled Poles with usurious debt. Finally, it's not the Russians that are responsible for the fact that we have become the easternmost aircraft carrier of the United States anchored in Europe. We ourselves, who failed by allowing such traitors into power, are to blame for this."

More from a comment section: "Donald Tusk, who is now President of the European Council, whose grandfather, Josef Tusk, served in Hitler's Wehrmacht, has consistently demanded that the Kiev regime imposed by the US and EU deal with the Donbass people brutally, "as with terrorists". While the Polish special services were training the future participants of the Maidan operations and the ethnic cleansing of the Donbass, the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs made this official statement (02-02-2014): "We support the hard line taken by the Right Sector The radical actions of the Right Sector and other militant groups of demonstrators and the use of force by protesters are justified The Right Sector has taken full responsibility for all the acts of violence during the recent protests. This is an honest position, and we respect it. The politicians have failed at their peacekeeping function. This means that the only acceptable option is the radical actions of the Right Sector. There is no other alternative".

In short, the US has been the most active enabler of the neo-Nazi movement in Europe. Mrs. Clinton seemingly did not get a memo about who is "new Hitler."

Chuck Orloski , February 17, 2017 at 11:17 pm GMT \n
100 Words

Scranton calling Mssrs. Roberts and Hudson:

Do you happen to know anything about western financial giants' influence upon Russia's "Atlanticist Integrationists"?

It's low hanging fruit for me to take a pick, but I am thinking The Goldman Sachs Group is well ensconced among Russian "Atlanticist Integrationists."

You guys are top seeded pros at uncovering Deep State-banker secrets. In contrast, I drive school bus and I struggle to even balance the family Wells Fargo debit card!

However, since our US Congress has anointed a seasoned G.S.G. veteran, Steve Mnuchin, as the administration's Treasury Secretary, he has become my favorite "Person of Interest" who I suspect spouts a Ural Mountain-level say as to how "Atlanticist Integrationists" operate.

Speaking very respectfully, I hope my question does not get "flummoxed" into resource rich Siberia.

Thank you very much!

Bobzilla , February 17, 2017 at 11:46 pm GMT \n
@WorkingClass

Berke reports that Henry Kissinger has sold President Trump on a scheme to use the removal of Russian sanctions to pry President Putin away from the Russian alliance with Iran and China.
Kissinger, like Dick Cheney or George Soros, will probably never be completely dead.

Kissinger, like Dick Cheney or George Soros, will probably never be completely dead

.

Most likely the Spirit of Anti-Christ keeping them alive to do his bidding.

Bill Jones , February 18, 2017 at 12:39 am GMT \n
@Priss Factor Here is proof that there is no real Leftist power anymore.

Voltaire once said, "To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize."

If the Left really rules America, how come it is fair game to criticize, condemn, mock, and vilify Marx, Lenin, Trotsky, Stalin, Bakunin, Emma Goldman & anarchists, Castro, Che(even though he is revered by many, one's career isn't damaged by attacking him), Tito, Ceucescu, Mao, Ho Chi Minh, Gramsci, Eurgene Debs, Pete Seeger, Abbie Hoffman, Bill Ayers, and etc.

You can say whatever you want about such people. Some will agree, some will disagree, but you will not be fired, blacklisted, or destroyed.

If the Left really rules, why would this be?

Now, what would happen if you name the Jewish Capitalists as the real holders of power?
What would happen if you name the Jewish oligarchic corporatists who control most of media?
What would happen if you said Jews are prominent in the vice industry of gambling?
What would happen if you named the Jewish capitalists in music industry that made so much money by spreading garbage?
What would happen if you said Jewish warhawks were largely responsible for the disasters in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Ukraine?
And what would happen if you were question the MLK mythology and cult?
What would happen if you were to make fun of homos and trannies?
Now, keep in mind that blacks and homos are favored by Jews as their main allies.
(Some say the US is not a pro-minority nation, but it's still permissible to criticize, impugn, and vilify Chinese, Iranians, Muslims, Mexicans, Hindus, and etc. Trump was hard on China, Iran, Muslims, and Mexicans, and he got some flak over it but not enough to destroy him. Now, imagine what would have happened if he'd said such things about blacks, Africa, homos, Jews, and Israel? American politics isn't necessarily pro-minority. If it is, it should favor Palestinian-Americans just as much as Jewish-Americans. Actually, since there are fewer Palestinian-Americans than Jewish-Americans, the US, being pro-minority, should favor Palestinians over Jews in America. In reality, it is AIPAC that draws all the politicians. America is about Pro-Power, and since Jews have the Power and since Jews are a minority, it creates the false impression that the US is a minority-supremacist nation. But WHICH minority? Jews would like for us think that all minorities are represented equally in the US, but do Eskimos, Hawaiians, Guatemalans, Vietnamese, and etc. have the kind of power & protection that the Jewish minority has? Do we see politicians and powerbrokers flock to such minorities for funds and favors?)

So, what does it about the real power in America? So many 'conservatives' say the Left controls America. But in fact, an American can badmouth all true bonafide leftist leaders and thinkers(everyone from Lenin to Sartre). However, if an American were to badmouth Sheldon Adelson as a sick demented Zionist capitalist oligarch who wants to nuke Iran, he would be blacklisted by the most of the media. (If one must criticize Adelson, it has to be in generic terms of him a top donor to the likes of Romney. One mustn't discuss his zealous and maniacal views rooted in Zionist-supremacism. You can criticize his money but not the mentality that determines the use of that money.) Isn't it rather amusing how the so-called Liberals denounce the GOP for being 'extreme' but overlook the main reason for such extremism? It's because the GOP relies on Zionist lunatics like Adelson who thinks Iran should be nuked to be taught a lesson. Even Liberal Media overlook this fact. Also, it's interesting that the Liberal Media are more outraged by Trump's peace offer to Russia than Trump's hawkish rhetoric toward Iran. I thought Liberals were the Doves.

We know why politics and media work like this. It's not about 'left' vs 'right' or 'liberal' vs 'conservative'. It is really about Jewish Globalist Dominance. Jews, neocon 'right' or globo-'left', hate Russia because its brand of white gentile nationalism is an obstacle to Jewish supremacist domination. Now, Current Russia is nice to Jews, and Jews can make all the money they want. But that isn't enough for Jews. Jews want total control of media, government, narrative, everything. If Jews say Russia must have homo parades and 'gay marriage', Russia better bend over because its saying NO means that it is defiant to the Jewish supremacist agenda of using homomania as proxy to undermine and destroy all gentile nationalism rooted in identity and moral righteousness.
Russia doesn't allow that, and that is what pisses off Jews. For Jews, the New Antisemitism is defined as denying them the supremacist 'right' to control other nations. Classic antisemitism used to mean denying Jews equal rights under the law. The New Antisemitism means Jews are denied the right to gain dominance over others and dictate terms.
So, that is why Jews hate any idea of good relations with Russia. But Jews don't mind Trump's irresponsible anti-Iran rhetoric since it serves Zionist interest. So, if Trump were to say, "We shouldn't go to war with Russia; we should be friends" and "We should get ready to bomb, destroy, and even nuke Iran", the 'liberal' media would be more alarmed by the Peace-with-Russia statement. Which groups controls the media? 'Liberals', really? Do Muslim 'liberals' agree with Jewish 'liberals'?

Anyway, we need to do away with the fiction that Left rules anything. They don't. We have Jewish Supremacist rule hiding behind the label of the 'Left'. But the US is a nation where it's totally permissible to attack real leftist ideas and leaders but suicidal if anyone dares to discuss the power of super-capitalist Jewish oligarchs. Some 'leftism'!

We need to discuss the power of the Glob.

Thanks for the digest of hasbarist crap.

Useful to have it all in one place..

annamaria , February 18, 2017 at 1:03 am GMT \n
100 Words

War profiteers (both of a dishonest character) have found each other: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-17/mccain-tells-europe-trump-administration-disarray http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-17/germany-issues-stark-warning-trump-stop-threatening-eu-favoring-russia
" Trump's administration was in "disarray," McCain told the Munich Security Conference, where earlier in the day Germany defense minister Ursula von der Leyen warned Trump to stop threatening the EU, abandoning Western values and seeking close ties with Russia, that the resignation of the new president's security adviser Michael Flynn over his contacts with Russia reflected deep problems in Washington."

What an amazing whoring performance for the war-manufacturers! And here is an interesting morsel of information about the belligerent Frau der Leyen: http://www.dw.com/en/stanford-accuses-von-der-leyen-of-misrepresentation/a-18775432
"Stanford university has said Ursula von der Leyen is misrepresenting her affiliation with the school. The German defense minister's academic career is already under scrutiny after accusations of plagiarism." No kidding. Some "Ursula von der Leyen' values" indeed.

Anonymous IX , February 18, 2017 at 2:42 am GMT \n
200 Words

I doubt we'll see little change from the Trump administration toward Russia.

From SOTT:

Predictable news coming out of Yemen: Saudi-backed "Southern Resistance" forces and Hadi loyalists, alongside al-Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), launched a new offensive against the Houthis in western Yemen on Wednesday.

This is not the first time Saudi-backed (and by extension, Washington-backed) forces have teamed up with al-Qaeda in Yemen .

Yemen is quickly becoming the "spark that lights the powder keg". The conflict has already killed, maimed and displaced countless thousands (thanks to the stellar lack of reporting from trustworthy western news sources, we can only estimate the scale of Saudi/U.S. crimes in Yemen), but now it seems that elements of the Trump administration are keen on escalation, likely in hopes of giving Washington an excuse to carpet bomb Tehran.

Apparently, we feel satisfied fighting with our old allies, al-Qaeda and Saudis.

I had hoped for much better from Trump.

Kiza , February 18, 2017 at 4:23 am GMT \n
200 Words

I think that the authors may be underestimating Putin in his determination to keep Russia and the Russian economy independent. For example, I find this rumoured offer of "increased access to the huge European energy market" very funny, for at least two reasons:
1) US wants to sell hydrocarbons (LPG) to the European market at significantly higher prices than the Russian prices, and
2) the current dependence of EU countries on the Russian energy would have never happened if there were better alternatives.

In other words, any detente offer that the West would make to Russia would last, as usual, not even until the signature ink dries on the new cooperation agreements. Putin does not look to me like someone who suffers much from wishful thinking.

The Russian relationship with China is not a bed of roses, but it is not China which is increasing military activity all around Russia, it is the West. Also, so far China has shown no interest in regime-changing Russia and dividing it into pieces. Would you rather believe in the reform capability of an addict in violence or someone who does not need to reform? Would the West self-reform and sincerely renounce violence just by signing a new agreement with Russia?

The new faux detente will never happen, as long as Putin is alive.

Max Havelaar , February 18, 2017 at 8:22 pm GMT \n
200 Words

Trump is an ultra-zionist for Sheldon Adelson and prolongs & creates wars for the Goldman banking crimesyndicat.

The only one stopping Trump is Putin or Russia's missile defenses.

Indeed, Putin's main inside enemy is Russia's central bank, or the Jewish oligarchs in Russia (Atlanticists). Also Russia needs to foster and encourage small&medium enterprises, that need cheap credit, to create competitive markets, where no prices are fixed and market shares change. These are most efficient resource users.

In the US, Wallstreet controls government = fascism = the IG Farben- Auschwitz concentration camps to maximize profits. This is the direction for the US economy.

Meanwhile in the EU, the former Auschwitz owners IG Farben (Bayer(Monsanto), Hoechst, BASF) the EU chemical giants, who have patented all natures molecules, are in controll again over EU. Deutsche bank et allies is eating Greece, Italy, Spain's working classes, using AUSTERITY as their creed.

So what is new? Nothing, the supercorporate-fascist elites are the same families, who 's morality is unchanged in a 100 years.

Anon , February 20, 2017 at 4:28 am GMT \n
@Priss Factor

Here is proof that there is no real Leftist power anymore.

Voltaire once said, "To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize."

... ... ...

Sergey Krieger , February 20, 2017 at 12:20 pm GMT \n
@Seamus Padraig

I'm generally a big fan and admirer of Putin, but this is definitely one criticism of him that I have a lot of sympathy for. It is long past time for Putin to purge the neoliberals from the Kremlin and nationalize the Russian Central Bank. I cannot fathom why he hasn't done this already.

I would really love to like Putin and I am trying but him protecting all those criminals and not reversing the history greatest heist of 90′s makes it impossible. While I am behind all his moves to restore Russian military and foreign policy, I am still waiting for more on home front. Note, not only the Bank must be nationalized. Everything, all industries, factories and other assets privatized by now must be returned to rightful owner. Public which over 70 years through great sacrifice built all of it.

Sergey Krieger , February 20, 2017 at 12:31 pm GMT \n
300 Words @SmoothieX12
I cannot fathom why he hasn't done this already.
Partially, because Putin himself is an economic liberal and, to a degree, monetarist, albeit less rigid than his economic block. The good choices he made often were opposite to his views. As he himself admitted that Russia's geopolitical vector changed with NATO's aggression against Yugoslavia--a strengthening of Russia has become an imperative. This comeback was impossible within the largely "Western" monetarist economic model. Russia's comeback happened not thanks but despite Putin's economic views, Putin adjusted his views in the process, his economic block didn't. But many of them still remain his friends, despite the fact that many of them are de facto fifth column and work against Russia, intentionally and other wise. Eventually Putin will be forced to get down from his fence and take the position of industrialists and siloviki. Putin's present for Medvedev's birthday was a good hint on where he is standing economically today and I am beginning to like that but still--I personally am not convinced yet. We'll see. In many respects Putin was lucky and specifically because of the namely Soviet military and industry captains still being around--people who, unlike Putin, knew exactly what constituted Russia's strength. Enough to mention late Evgeny Primakov. Let's not forget that despite Putin's meteoric rise through the top levels of Russia's state bureaucracy, including his tenure as a Director of FSB, Putin's background is not really military-industrial. He is a lawyer, even if uniformed (KGB) part of his career. I know for a fact that initially (early 2000s) he was overwhelmed with the complexity of Russia's military and industry. Enough to mention his creature Serdyukov who almost destroyed Command and Control structure of Russia's Armed Forces and main ideologue behind Russia's military "reform", late Vitaly Shlykov who might have been a great GRU spy (and economist by trade) but who never served a day in combat units. Thankfully, the "reforms" have been stopped and Russian Armed Forces are still dealing with the consequences. This whole clusterfvck was of Putin's own creation--hardly a good record on his resume. Hopefully, he learned.

Smoothie, you seem to have natural aversion towards lawyers
Albeit, the first Vladimir, I mean Lenin also was a lawyers by education still he was a rather quick study. Remember that military communism and Lenin after one year after Bolsheviks took power telling that state capitalism would be great step forward for Russia whcih obviously was backward and ruined by wars at the time and he proceeded with New Economic Policy and Lenin despite not being industry captain realized pretty well what constituted state power hence GOELRO plans and electrification of all Russia plans and so forth which was later turned by Stalin and his team into reality.

Now, Lenin was ideologically motivated and so is Putin. But he clearly has been trying to achieve different results by keeping same people around him and doing same things. Hopefully it is changing now, but it is so much wasted time when old Vladimir was always repeating that time is of essence and delay is like death knell. Putin imho is away too relax and even vain in some way, hence those shirtless pictures and those on the bike. And the way he walks a la "Я Московский озорной гуляка". As you said it looks like he is protecting those criminals who must be prosecuted and yes, many executed for what they caused.

I suspect in cases when it comes to economical development he is not picking right people for those jobs and it is his major responsibility to assign right people and delegate power properly, not to be forgotten to reverse what constitutes the history greatest heist and crime so called "privatization". Basically returning to more communal society minus Politburo.

There is a huge elephant in the room too. Russia demographic situation which I doubt can be addressed under current liberal order. all states which are in liberal state of affairs fail to basically procreate hence these waves of immigrants brought into all Western Nations. Russia cannot do it. It would be suicide which is what all Western countries are doing right now.

Boris N , February 20, 2017 at 8:58 pm GMT \n

Russia does not need Western technology. Indeed, its military technology is superior to that in the West.

You write about Russia but have not done your homework. Russia is very dependent on Western technology and its entire high-tech industry depends on the import of Western machinery. Without such machinery many Russian factories, including military ones, would stall. Very important oil industry is particularly vulnerable.

Some home reading (sorry, they are in Russian, but one ought to know the language if one writes about the country).

http://www.fa.ru/fil/orel/science/Documents/ISA%2014644146.pdf

http://rusrand.ru/analytics/stanki-stanki-stanki

[Jul 20, 2019] ... Not the men we thought we were ... - Sic Semper Tyrannis

Jul 20, 2019 | turcopolier.typepad.com

EEngineer , 13 May 2019 at 11:45 AM

I see the parallels, but not that one. I think the neocons hope to force the Iranians into making that "all-in" call though. Perhaps as the neocons see it, such a strike would magically rally the American populous to the war they so desire. Imperial conquest performed as a defensive reflex. So they needle nearly everyone in the hopes of triggering a replay of the WW2 saga which has taken on a mythical good vs evil aura in the US. Ironically, I would say it is the neocons who think they need to start a war with the Iranians so that they can be the men they think they are. The only thing still holding them back is the passive-aggressive need to make it look like someone, anyone, else started it so they can play the victim card once the body bags start coming home.
Ed Lindgren , 13 May 2019 at 11:51 AM
USN CDR A. H. McCollum was the man who conceived the so-called "Eight Action Plan" which he outlined in his Oct 7, 1940 memo. This was his proposal for the U.S. and Britain to initiate actions which would essentially force Japan into making a decision to wage war against the United States.

The key elements of the plan, as outlined in McCollum's memo, include the following:

A. Make an arrangement with Britain for the use of British bases in the Pacific, particularly Singapore
B. Make an arrangement with the Netherlands for the use of base facilities and acquisition of supplies in the Dutch East Indies
C. Give all possible aid to the Chinese government of Chiang-Kai-Shek
D. Send a division of long range heavy cruisers to the Orient, Philippines, or Singapore
E. Send two divisions of submarines to the Orient
F. Keep the main strength of the U.S. fleet now in the Pacific[,] in the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands
G. Insist that the Dutch refuse to grant Japanese demands for undue economic concessions, particularly oil
H. Completely embargo all U.S. trade with Japan, in collaboration with a similar embargo imposed by the British Empire

Not too terribly different from the squeeze currently being placed on Iran by the team of Pompeo/Boton.

The text of the McCollum memo can be found here:

https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/McCollum_memorandum


turcopolier , 13 May 2019 at 12:09 PM
Lindgren

Was this plan approved by Roosevelt? the embargoes had been in effect for some time by then.

Ed Lindgren said in reply to turcopolier ... , 13 May 2019 at 05:40 PM
COL Lang -

The journalist Robert Stinnett in his now 20 year old book 'Day of Deceit: The Truth About FDR and Pearl Harbor' made the case that FDR was aware of McCollum's memorandum. I have not read Stinnett's book, but historians apparently doubted the veracity of Stinnett's thesis regarding FDR's knowledge of the McCollum memo.

You are correct that initial embargoes of essential defense materials went to effect under the Export Control Act during the summer of 1940. Additional items were added to the list of embargoed materials subsequent to October 1940, following the drafting of the McCollum memo.

Fred -> Ed Lindgren... , 14 May 2019 at 08:29 AM
So no FOR did not approve of that plan, but some guy wrote a book 20 years ago, one you didn't read. That's quite helpful in evaluating current war mongering over Iran today.
ex-PFC Chuck said in reply to Ed Lindgren... , 20 July 2019 at 07:33 AM
I read Day of Deceit a month ago and found Stinnett's analysis and sourcing quite convincing. He demolishes the standard narrative that the attack was a total tactical surprise and to a large extent a strategic one as well. Admiral Yamamoto's orders to maintain radio silence were honored very much in the breach, one of the worst offenders being the at-sea mission commander himself, Admiral Nagumo. Many individual ship captains continued reporting their positions at specified times of the day, as was their peacetime practice. This enabled the US, British and Dutch signals monitoring stations, which were sharing information in spite of the fact that the US was not yet a combatant, to triangulate and track the Japanese mission fleet from its assembly point near the Kurile Islands eastward to their launch position several hundred miles north of Oahu. Stinnett assembles a strong circumstantial case asserting this information was available to the intelligence circles in Washington DC and in the US radio detection/cryptanalysis stations at Corregidor, the Aleutian Islands, and Station H on Oahu itself, practically within sight of Admiral Kimmel's office, but it never made it to the admiral himself or to General Short. He got much of the supporting information through the FOIA process, but some of the most damning documents he cited he found by walking into various historical archive sites outside of the DC area and simply asking to see what they had. He makes the point that many of the documents he cites never saw the light of day during any of the three formal investigations of the affair: in the months immediately after the attack; shortly after the end of the war; and half a century later in the early 1990s. What he is unable to cite are documents that concretely connect the president, Admiral Stark the CNO, or General Marshall the Army Chief of Staff with knowledge of the available intelligence. Those known to have existed which might have been smoking guns that he sought via the FOIA were either still highly classified or were "unable to be found." However the circumstantial case that they must have known and been on board, in some cases reluctantly, is strong. For example, it is known that the McCollum memo gained the attention of FDR himself soon after it was published, and the White House chief usher's log documents that the commander had several meetings with the president. McCollum, a USNA graduate, had spent much of his childhood in Japan as the child of Christian missionaries and was almost natively fluent in the language as well as deeply steeped in the culture.
Willy B said in reply to turcopolier ... , 20 July 2019 at 11:29 AM
Col,

I don't know if it came from the McCollum memo or not, but at the ABC-1 meetings in early 1941, the British delegation proposed that the US take over the defense of Singapore from the Royal Navy, a proposal that was rejected by the American delegation.

The minutes of the ABC-1 meetings were published by the British National Archives some years ago and I have it somewhere on my hard drive but I couldn't give you a link. As I recall, it was interesting to see the American side rejecting the Singapore and other schemes to get the US to defend British colonial territories.

blue peacock , 13 May 2019 at 12:21 PM
Col. Lang

It would seem that the best strategic option for Iran is to lay low and absorb the economic squeeze. The Chinese are unlikely to support the oil sanctions, so they'll be able to continue to sell them until the US navy starts to interdict their tankers. But oil is fungible.....

It would also seem that their best military strategy is a defensive one. Obtaining the best air defense systems and significant medium-range missiles with high payload capacity and accuracy. At the very least they'll be able to give a black-eye while going down.

Of course the question is how the Ayatollah controls his fire breathing, martyrdom loving hawks who bristle at their treatment by the US, Israel & the Saudis. My sense is Bibi will get more itchy than the Ayatollah to take advantage of his perception of complete control of Trump.

EEngineer said in reply to blue peacock... , 13 May 2019 at 01:01 PM
I've wondered if the Chinese will use their own tankers to pick up Iranian oil or re-flag Iranian ones with Chinese colors as the US did for Kuwait during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980's.

I can see the neocons wanting open conflict with Iran, but I don't know if they would risk war with China.

John Minehan said in reply to blue peacock... , 19 July 2019 at 05:14 PM
I'm not sure how much control Iran has of its proxies (the Houthi rebels, Hezbollah, the Shia Militias in Iraq, etc.). That strikes me as a reason fo both the US/Britain AND Iran to go carefully and slowly.
turcopolier , 13 May 2019 at 12:23 PM
BP Merely logical
Tidewater said in reply to turcopolier ... , 13 May 2019 at 04:15 PM
Sir,

Nice map, I assume it can't be considered a chart. Maps make me think. Anyway, when I heard about the four tankers at Fujairah damaged by "sabotage" I took a look up at Qeshm island in front of Bandar Abbas (it looks to me like a shark) and wondered how far it was down to Fujairah. I get about 140 nautical miles.

I know that there are hardened sub-pens on the land side of Queshm Island probably out to the western end. Recently I have read comments speculating what the Iranian class of mini- or midget subs would be useful for. One learns that one use would be to deliver a sea-mine; another to launch the one torpedo it can carry; and another would be as a transport for naval commandos, or swimmers trained in demolition and mine warfare.

Then I remembered something. I took a look at the last place down on the right side of the map on the Iranian mangrove shore, Trask, once an old fishing port. Trask is also where the pipeline down from the CIS countries will end, and a large refinery, manufacturing, and shipping complex is planned. Since 2008, Trask has been developed for a number of military uses. First as a naval base which berths fast motor patrol boats of the kind that can launch missiles like the Qader, a sea-skimmer carrying a warhead of 200 kilos which can reach out to 186 miles; also as a drone base, complete with a rail launcher which could indicate proficiency in big stay-aloft reconnaisance drones, soon enough to be weaponized, if not already. Significantly, it is also a base for littoral-class submarines, which would include mini-subs design based on the North Korean Yono class, submarines that would be similar to the one that is thought to have sunk the ROKS Cheonan in 2011 with a torpedo. Travelling at nine or ten knots, the Iranian model of the Yono, the Ghadir, could make the crossing to Fujairah in about twelve hours. That's a distance of 127 miles or so.
It looks to me as if the stern location of the tanker the news videos show would not have been hit unless the ship backed into a mine. And it doesn't look like the kind of damage a naval mine would do. A naval mine would have made an enormous ten or twenty foot cavernous dent in that stern, at the least. What it looks like to me was that a swimmer or swimmers placed a sticky explosive or satchel charge. (?) I think it is meant as a warning. 'We can get you any time..."

There's another message. Fujairah and also the ports of Salalah, Sohar, and Duqm, in Oman, have been billing themselves as "the Gateway to the Arabian Gulf." (For that historical and scholarly insult alone they should pay.) Fujairah is the only one of the UAE that is on the eastern side of the Musandam Peninsula. It has been advertised as the emirate that would not be involved in a Gulf war. Out of range. Think again me buckaroos.

The United States has just signed an agreement in late March with Oman which allows US naval and air forces to use the new state- of-the art port facilities and airport at Duqm, down in the middle of the Oman coast, and also Salalah. Sultan Qaboos, a very impressive leader, one of the best, who happens to be gay (but the father of his country), balances carefully between the various powers he must deal with. Iran is already there in Oman and has the right to establish companies and to store materiel there, and to ship cargoes. Just as Iran does in Qatar, where two hundred trucks come across from Bushire every day and have since June 2017 since Trump the Brain gave the OK to Mohammed Bin Salman to lay siege to Qatar. Consider this: "Sohar Freezone has options for leasing pre-built warehouses and commercial offices, as well as 100% foreign ownership...and a One-Stop-Shop for all relevant permits and clearances." (From Overview--SOHAR Port and Freezone.) As to how you get this cargo to points south, that is an interesting question...

Russia will come in if push comes to shove. Russia will not countenance the idea of an America naval and drone base on the Caspian, which is what will happen if Iran is bombed flat. Russia will second pilots to the Iranians and will send bombers like the Tu-95 Bear or the Backfire capable of carrying the KH-101 which will carry Iranian markings etc. These bombers, with enormous range, could wreck havoc on Diego Garcia, and could destroy a carrier group.

The Iranians show us now that they were the ones who invented the game of chess. Trump can look at China, and then he can look at Fujairah, and he can see the American economy going down... The Iranian move is worthy of a grand master...

Tidewater said in reply to Tidewater... , 13 May 2019 at 04:56 PM
Tidewater to Tidewater,

Ouch. The place is called Jask.

ancientarcher said in reply to Tidewater... , 14 May 2019 at 06:08 AM
Great comment!
I think transferring a Tu-95 bomber will be a bit too much since the Iranians don't have much of an air force. But missiles will do the job anyways, so why bother with planes. You don't need to hit Diego Garcia, Israel is close enough. So is Al Udeid. Plus there will be attacks on all US bases spread across Iraq and I suspect Syria. There is no shortage of targets for sure for the Iranians, it this leads to war.
By the way, Chess was invented in India not ancient Persia. So was the numeral system which is now called Arabic numerals (the Arabs have been trying to give their names to stuff which is not theirs for a long time now) including the decimal system and negative numbers.
Tidewater said in reply to ancientarcher... , 14 May 2019 at 05:00 PM
Thank you for your comment. You remind me that I have a group of expensive, unread books about that part of the world. I may never read them, the way things are going.

I want to stress that Russia and Iran have already worked out the diplomatic agreements which allow Russia to have based bombers at Hamadan, from which attacks were made on Isis in Syria. In other words, Russia knows the way. The question is, is Russia going to stand by and do nothing while the United States bombs Iran back to the stone ages, as it did in North Korea during the Korean conflict? I find that hard to believe. I assume that at some point Russia will, as Russia has previously done in other conflicts, or places, such as in Yemen, in the 1970s and early 80's, assign pilots, and transfer planes ostensibly to the control of the Iranian military.

Diego Garcia is an atoll in the middle of the Indian Ocean. It is a critical anchorage for prepositioning supply ships for any land operations, such as the invasion of Iraq; it is also a support facility, where submarines and other ships can get repairs. It is also an airbase, where B-2 bombers might be assembling as I write, though given everything else that is NOT happening, I assume that is doubtful. Speaking in a general way, the distance from the Persian Gulf, Muscat, or Bahrain, say, to Diego Garcia, is about 2600 or 2700 miles.

If Russia seconded a squadron of bombers such as the TU-22M3 (NATO reporting name Backfire C) under the aegis of Iran, and based them out of Bandar Abbas, Iran will have gotten a lot of reach out into the Indian Ocean, since the Backfire has a combat radius of about 1300-1500 miles.
The missile it will be carrying would be the standard Russian cruise missile--it is not hypersonic-- but it is a sea-skimmer, with a range of about 1550 miles. This is the KH-101/102 (nuclear). It seems certain to me that the Backfire can get the KH-101 (Raduga) missile out there; as can the Blackjack and the Bear. The mission of four or five bombers delivering each about eight missiles could be to sink some of those prepositioning ships; and to wreck the drone base/the airfield, and certain warehouse facilities. There is another thing such an attack could do. Diego Garcia has more than ample rainfall. As things stand today, it has never had a better fresh water supply system. Pipes and water storage, all has been greatly improved. Fresh water for two to three thousand support personnel and base activities is not a problem. I don't think Diego Garcia even needs to have a desalination system. There is one thing, though. Diego Garcia is built on a series of coral reefs, the one stacked on the other in geologic history as ocean levels rose 300 feet from 13,000 years ago. The coral beneath the island is permeated with salt water. The fresh water aquifers of the atoll sit on top of the salt water in what are called "lenses". These lenses hold an enormous amount of water kept stable and tappable by isostatic pressure, I am guessing. If an attack were made by JDAM missiles in areas determined from studies of the island to have these lense aqufiers, and if the missiles went deep into them before exploding, then I think the entire fresh water structure of the island could be ruined. The lenses would be penetrated and ruined. Salt water would permeate, mix and spread through the aquifer. It would become like Basra Governate, which now has an evil polluted salt brine aquifer where once it had fresh water. (And which means that there is already considerable migration from southern Iraq into Kurdish areas around Irbil, to the north.)

eaken , 13 May 2019 at 01:29 PM
Iran should publicly invite Trump to Tehran without his posse.
Artemesia said in reply to eaken... , 14 May 2019 at 03:26 PM
Iran should arrange with Italy for a meeting in Rome with Putin, Xi Jinping, and Trump. The Donald could take the role of Churchill in that meeting, who got an inkling that he was the odd-man out.
Six months later, Mark Clark went to Rome alone rather than execute the British - American pincer plan.

Historian Andrew Buchanan argues that Clark was ordered to take that action by FDR himself in a meeting with Clark at Bernard Baruch's plantation in North Carolina https://www.c-span.org/video/?322137-1/discussion-us-engagement-italy-world-war-ii US forces in control of Rome shut out all diplomats, including Churchill's representatives, from the diplomacy that then took place that determined Italy's future; USA became, effectively, in charge of Mediterranean and trade routes to Levant and North Africa.

Israel and its US lobbies, Jewish & Christian, have GOT to be reined in, or the American empire is on its way to the dustbin of history.

Tidewater said in reply to Artemesia... , 15 May 2019 at 03:40 PM
That historian Andrew Buchanan does not know that Bernard Baruch's plantation was off of Winyah Bay on Waccamaw Neck across from Georgetown, SOUTH Carolina, is, in my view, a red flag about his scholarship. The plantation, Hobcaw Barony, was for FDR, in 1944, a month-long retreat which made it, in effect, the southern White House. Buchanan obviously doesn't know anything at all about southerners in FDR's administration and the New Deal. I cannot help but wonder if Buchanan has ever looked at the papers of James Francis Byrnes, which are held at the University of South Carolina. My guess is that Byrnes might have made some comment about significant matters which happened at Hobcaw, including the visit of General Clark. Shrewd, devious Byrnes is a fascinating figure. (His handiwork is the Santee-Cooper hydroelectric project which you get a glimpse of on I-95 as you drive over lake Marion there, created by damming the Santee. It provided electricity for the whole depression hit state of South Carolina.) Byrnes knew them all, including Stalin. Also, it ought to be noted that Buchanan himself says that there is not a shred of evidence that at Hobcaw FDR personally ordered Mark Clark to disobey the clear orders of Field Marshall Alexander and break away from what could have been a decisive victory and instead go into Rome. It ought to be noted as well that Buchanan's argument that by putting into power the more left-wing politician Ivanoe Bonomi instead of the British backed General Pietro Badoglio, it meant that the communist partisans in northern Italy therefore accepted the new government and willingly laid down their arms, whereas under Badoglio and the King they might not have. I don't think they had a choice; and I wonder if they actually didn't maintain a clandestine arsenal thereafter. They were by no means ready to quit. A quick look at Wikipedia tells us that it was Churchill's government that persuaded Bonomi, who came in in June and was ready to quit by November, to stay on. He did so. The communists were a powerful force in Italy all the way up almost into the 1980s--it was the Red Brigade which kidnapped and murdered Aldo Moro, for example. Further, as a reaction , to the communist threat, there is the whole question of "strategic tension" which gave Italy the "years of lead"-- years of terror bombings by the right, such as the Bologna train station bombing, the bombing of the passenger plane which fell off of Ustica, and the whole mysterious thing that was Gladio. Michael Scammel in 'Koestler', his biography of the writer Arthur Koestler, gives an account of the near hysteria in western Europe in 1948 after the Communist coup in Czechoslovakia. "The coup fulfilled Koestler's direst predictions and worst fears: there was no room for a third force in Europe anymore--not, at least, in countries where the Communists were strong. In France, rife with rumors of a coup of its own and convulsed by increasingly violent strikes, he found a populace growing more jittery by the day. Malraux talked darkly of a plot to foment civil war and publicly threatened "a reorganization of the Resistance" to oppose communism. Charles "Chip" Bohlen, the new American ambassador, talked wildly about dropping an atom bomb on Baku, and newspapers were full of the threat of a new world conflict." (Page 311.) Koestler, when he left Europe for the United States, actually believed that Europe was going to go communist. That Europe was a lost cause.

This is not to say that I am disagreement with what you are saying overall. I find Andrew Buchanan someone new and interesting. Very provocative. Perhaps he overreaches. Don't know enough, really, to make the call. Thank you for the introduction to him. Hobcaw Barony is now a large natural preserve for environmental, oceanographic and coastal studies. Remarkable story about how the foundation was created, mostly by Baruch's daughter, who must have worked a lifetime on it. Sixteen thousand acres on a neck of land that has the Atlantic ocean on one side and marshes and Winyah Bay on the other. It's worth a visit.

ted richard , 13 May 2019 at 01:37 PM
if the true goal of the neocons is war, provoked upon iran then any naval battle group which includes a usa carrier sent into the persian gulf is the match the neocons are looking for once they decide to ''remember the maine'' to it sending it to the bottom, then use that false flag as their pretext.

if its obvious to me wouldn't you suppose its obvious to the pentagon?

O'Shawnessey , 13 May 2019 at 01:39 PM
An apt comparison, no doubt, to "The Day of Deceit."

Then there is the high probability that, even if Iran shows restraint and plays the long game, a provocation in the manner of "Assad gasses his own people" will be arranged for them.

Even so, time is not on the side of the US Entity. How much longer can the Fed's fraudulent T-bill scheme keep running? My sense is that they wouldn't be weaponizing the dollar if they had other actual weapons to hand.

Jack , 13 May 2019 at 01:58 PM
Sir

What real choices do the Iranians have? It would be foolish on their part to launch any kind of military action.

LA Sox Fan -> Jack... , 19 July 2019 at 06:43 PM
While some may think military action from Iran is foolish, a slow death from sanctions isn't going to be something Iran chooses either.
catherine , 13 May 2019 at 01:59 PM

No sooner 'warned' then done. Who did it?

Saudi Arabia said two of its oil tankers were sabotaged off the coast of the United Arab Emirates and described it as an attempt to undermine the security of crude supplies amid tensions between the United States and Iran.
The reports come as the US warned ships that "Iran or its proxies" could be targeting maritime traffic in the region, and as the US is deploying an aircraft carrier and B-52 bombers to the Gulf to counter what it called "threats from Tehran".

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/05/saudi-oil-tankers-sabotaged-ships-uae-coast-190513055332524.html

ancientarcher , 13 May 2019 at 01:59 PM
Exceptionally good argument. I would also posit that the element of religious belief makes the argument even more potent.
I can't help but think back to more recent instances where the neocons were basically daring the other party to do something - anything. Ukraine in 2014 and Syria later on, come to mind. They had been waiting for the Russians to send in their troops to Ukraine after which they could have totally choked the economy. They also waited for mistakes from Assad, which he wisely avoided.
Similarly, Iran will be wise to avoid reacting in any way to these provocations. Since these provocations are meant to provoke a reaction, if the Iranians bite their lips and hold their hands, they would do more to hurt the neocons than by reacting blindly as the situation and their nature perhaps goads them towards.
D , 13 May 2019 at 03:08 PM
I humbly suggest you watch this series. Unfortunately, I don't know Persian so I can't help with translation. I watched these series with my sister in law who is a Persian Jew with an excellent command of Farsi; the videos are pretty informative.

https://youtu.be/LUHY17zF-9g?t=789

1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LersWbaymTM
2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUHY17zF-9g
3. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=abODp1BeuAg
4. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePDXnAe_zm4
5. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNboW6WcC3U

Rocketrepreneur , 13 May 2019 at 03:08 PM
Pat,
I share your concern, but for the neocons I fear that they see that backing Iran into a position where it has nothing to lose with a war is a feature, not a bug.
~Jon
walrus , 13 May 2019 at 03:43 PM
Time is not on America's side

In my opinion, the critical element is the forthcoming deployment of advanced Russian and Chinese systems such as the Sarmat heavy ICBM, scheduled I think for 2021, new submarines, etc., etc. and I am not even talking about joint Russo/sino developments.

As Col. Lang/Gingrich explained, we are talking economics here. But unlike Japan, the Russian, Iranian, Syrian, Chinese and associated economies under the stimulus of OBOR are only going to get stronger if left to themselves. The American economy, in my opinion, is no longer capable of replacing ageing infrastructure, matching Russo Chinese military technical capabilities, fielding a million man Army and supporting allies like Korea, Taiwan, Australia, Japan, Poland, etc. without beggaring its population.

To put that another way, the American economic marvel of military production came off a low base with millions of underemployed work hungry people available as a result of the depression. I don't think those conditions obtain today.

Hence the Washington logic of picking off the weakest of the Axis - Iran, right now.

Fred -> walrus ... , 13 May 2019 at 07:51 PM
You mean a million H1B visa holders and 20 million illegal immigrants aren't our strength? Who knew! Maybe we should outsource more manufacturing to China, that'll teach the bastards to mess with us!
ISL said in reply to walrus ... , 19 July 2019 at 07:46 PM
Good points, I would correct:

The "American Political class," rather than the US economy - solutions are available and affordable, but not within the current US political and economic and legal and hence power structures.

FIRE take up too much of the US economy and the best and brightest and has bought the political class hook, line and Epstein.

LJ , 13 May 2019 at 04:09 PM
The chances of war diminished?

https://ejmagnier.com/2019/05/13/from-karbala-to-al-fujairah-an-act-of-sabotage-may-end-prospects-of-a-summer-war-in-the-middle-east/

Eliot said in reply to LJ... , 13 May 2019 at 08:14 PM
LJ

"the chances of war..."

Those damn fools.

This makes war more likely.

- Eliot

Eliot , 13 May 2019 at 04:30 PM
Walrus,

"The American economy, in my opinion, is no longer capable of replacing ageing infrastructure, matching Russo Chinese military technical capabilities"

I was in Russia for the first time last summer. I loved it, but I was surprised by how poor they are. Our debt load aside, they have do have more limited resources.

Sylvia 1 said in reply to Eliot ... , 14 May 2019 at 10:35 AM
I would love to know more about what you mean about Russian poverty. I was there last September and will return again. I would not say the same.
rho , 13 May 2019 at 04:48 PM
I think the key difference is that Japan was isolated on its continent when it made the decision to go to war. (only being allied with Nazi Germany and Italy, which were so far away that the alliance made little difference to Japan's economic situation in 1941)

Going to war must appear more attractive when you have your back against the wall than when you have regional allies who are still willing to support you politically and economically in a meaningful way.

E Publius , 13 May 2019 at 05:17 PM
I have to admit Colonel that this post reminded me of an April 29th profile in the New Yorker of John Bolton. Several days ago after reading the lengthy New Yorker piece I realized how slowly but surely, the Trump admin has been consistently heading toward outright madness with the gradual departure of people like Tillerson, J. Kelly, and Mattis from the office. It was mentioned in the piece how Gen. Mattis thwarted multiple outright crazy attempts by McMaster (who is now at FDD shilling for the "Long War" strategy; once a neocon, always a neocon), Bolton and Mira Ricardel aimed at declaring war against Iran. Now that there are a few key vacant positions in the administration such as the UN Ambs, Homeland Sec, a few at the State Dep, and most importantly at the Pentagon, shouldn't these vacancies act as major restraining factor against war or the Trump admin "is" stupid enough to go full war mode regardless? IMO some things still just do not add up. just wondering...
Christian J Chuba , 13 May 2019 at 07:06 PM
Just curious about something. I hear news stories that we are sending the Lincoln inside the Persian Gulf. That seems like it would negate a lot of our advantage if we actually did fight Iran. It would be in range of every anti-ship missile they have as well as most of their navy which is designed specifically for the Gulf and not much of a blue water navy. Why wouldn't we keep it just outside the Gulf in the open water where our carrier and escorts would seemingly have a bigger advantage?

I don't want a fight and I'm not pretending that I understand naval tactics, but this just seems a bit odd to me.

VietnamVet , 14 May 2019 at 01:16 AM
Colonel,

The damage was above the water line and a slash as if perhaps a missile but did not penetrate the oil bunkers. It does not look like a limpet mine. There are no reports of airplanes or ships but is described as sabotage. It is unlikely to be a false flag. Media reporting has been muted. Simply that it is being investigated. But as pointed out here before there is no stockpiling of supplies needed for an invasion of Iran by a million-man army. Inside the Persian Gulf is the last place the Commander of the Carrier Group wants to be if war breaks out. My guess is that the sabotage to four tankers was a signal of what the Revolutionary Guards could do if they really wanted to and as a counter to ultra-mad man U.S. diplomacy and sanctions. Lloyd's of London must raise their insurance rates. This will raise oil prices at the same time as prices rise due to Mid-West flooding, China's African Swine Fever outbreak, and the imposing of a 25% tariff on Chinese imports. All sorts of bad things are happening at once. Rather than 2003's misleading Shock and Awe propaganda, the 2019 Iranian war drums indicate total incompetence.

Eric Newhill , 14 May 2019 at 09:25 AM
The Imperial Japanese believed that Americans were soft and that US troops would crumble when faced with the mighty spirit of Bushido. They were ultimately banking on that mistaken conclusion. I don't think the Iranians have any such delusions.

I don't see how Iran can do anything more than make some trouble that is minor in the big scheme of things - and which will dig their hole deeper - and then lose.

I don't approve of what is being done, but I think the current Iranian regime could be destroyed if the neocons have their way; albeit with US casualties and great material and financial expense. I don't like how US troops and sailors may be used as bait by the neocons.

Eric Newhill said in reply to Eric Newhill... , 14 May 2019 at 10:12 AM
I should add that to my mind the real question is what would follow in the wake of war. Would the Iranians be happy to be free of the Islamic Revolutionary govt? Or would they go on for generations with wounded pride that demands revenge, like the Palestinians? I think the latter. In which case war/regime change solves nothing. I'm willing to bet the neocons, as usual, have their own delusions about flowers, candy, purple thumbs, smiling faces and freedom.
John Minehan said in reply to Eric Newhill... , 19 July 2019 at 08:26 PM
They had a front row seat for OIF and what came after. I suspect they have a good feeling for our capability and weaknesses . . . whether they can exploit that or not, might be the issue.
turcopolier , 14 May 2019 at 10:03 AM
Eric Newhill - IMO you are underestimating how much damage Iran could do to the fleet in a transition to war situation before the US Navy got its ducks in line and crushed them. As for the illusion about US willingness to fight, all our opponents have believed the same thing before the house fell on them.
Eric Newhill said in reply to turcopolier ... , 14 May 2019 at 10:17 AM
Sir,
Oh, I understand what Iran could do. As you know, it has been war gamed and the US Navy gets hit pretty hard.

But Iran still loses. Each hit the US Navy takes, strengthens the resolve to crush Iran that much harder.

Again, I am in no way approving of what I think may happen. I have been told by someone I know well in the DIA that we are doing to war with Iran sooner or later. The first time I was told this was when Obama was still in office. Then I was told that the election of Trump has changed nothing. Make what you will of that.

blue peacock said in reply to turcopolier ... , 20 July 2019 at 01:58 AM
Col. Lang

"in a transition to war situation before the US Navy got its ducks in line and crushed them" what damage could Iranian ballistic missiles do to UAE, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia? Could they devastate oil & gas, LNG, port and pipeline infrastructure sufficiently that it would take a year to re-build back to full capacity?

It seems it would be a lose-lose proposition for everyone including Trump's re-election prospects. I have seen private surveys of working class people in the mid-west and the south who by an overwhelming majority oppose a war with Iran when informed about some of the potential consequences.

turcopolier , 14 May 2019 at 11:12 AM
Eric Newhill

People in the information parts of the USIC do not know what the US government may do, but they all have opinions.

turcopolier , 14 May 2019 at 11:13 AM
Eric Newhill

We won the Pacific War as well but if you were entombed alive in the bowels of USS Arizona that did nit mean much to you.

Eric Newhill , 19 July 2019 at 05:26 PM
Well, Sir, unfortunately I think you called this one spot on.

IMO, if there's going to be war, then the Europeans and Brits should fight it. Their the ones most impacted (though I recognize that everyone in the global markets will feel the pain resulting from a closure of the straight).

Of course none of them will step up on their own and the US will have to do this. Still holding out hope that some kind of negotiation is possible, but becoming skeptical. The Iranians want to prove they are the men they thought they were. Still, maybe a good deal will satisfy that need.

LA Sox Fan -> Eric Newhill... , 19 July 2019 at 06:58 PM
The Bolton/neoconservative plan of starting a war with Iran is working perfectly. In a tit for tat action, Iran has captured one or more U.K. tankers. My hopes for avoiding a completely unnecessary war with Iran, one we have a fair chance of losing, are becoming slimmer and slimmer.
Walrus said in reply to Eric Newhill... , 19 July 2019 at 10:34 PM
Eric, I'm in Europe right now and I don't think any Europeans are prepared in the slightest to support a war with Iran. For starters, if Iran did not surrender instantaneously, an oil shortage will collapse the European and Chinese economies and that is only one of the minor, first order effects.

The question of "not being the men they thought they were" cuts both ways. Does the European union want to see war with Iran? No. Do the Europeans want to see Britain, egged on by the Neocons, take "a hard line" with Iran? No. Do the Europeans want to aid and abet the U. S. in fighting a war with Iran through NATO? No. Do they want to be "saved from Iran " by the U.S. galloping all over hemisphere as in 1944? No.

So do you really want to see NATO and American relationships with Europe, Russia and China, India and the rest of the world put under severe stress in a @#@# waving contest between Trump and the Mullahs? At the behest of Israel? Because that is what you are going to get.

Then there is the prospect of the Chinese and Russians retaliating, and I don't even want to go there.

The Mullahs have ruined the weekend for the leaders of each and every major nation. What will be happening this weekend in every capital is a series of committee meetings asking the same questions; What should our response to Iran be? What should our response to possible American action be? What is the likely effect of war with Iran on our energy supplies? What is the likely effect of war with Iran on our own security? What is the likely effect of war with Iran on our economy? Public servants will be working late into the night to answer these questions. The only thing for sure is that the price of gold is going to skyrocket when markets open and that a lot of troops are going to get warning orders about notice to move monday morning.

This is the same type of situation that started WW1. ....... So we decide to give those pesky Iranian Mullahs a good whupping because they had it coming. Should be easy, after all they are just more sand niggers, right? All of a sudden Russia drops an air defence regiment into Tehran, We lose aircraft. China let's North Korea off the leash and at the same time issues an ultimatum to Taiwan. Suddenly we are taking losses, have three war theatres going at the same time. What happens then?

I suppose you think nothing is going to affect the continental U.S., so who cares?


Charles Michael -> Eric Newhill... , 20 July 2019 at 08:19 AM
Eric newhill,

There I must disagree:
Nethanyaou is again in election campaign same goes for President Trump; IMHO no war for the newt 6 months and probably never.

A deal is possible ? maybe
but it should encompass the Syrian issue from where all this Iranian crisis is actually born-again.
For example Iran could agree to withdraw its troops from Syria if USA and partners did the same as Trump was considering.
This move would surely have some effect on the YPG position, thus on Turkey's activism along its frontier with Syria (Afrin being not included).


Entering in negociations for a JCPOA bis will not be acceptable for Iran if sanctions (some at least) are not lifted. My educated guess is that is precisely what's going on.

turcopolier , 19 July 2019 at 05:43 PM
JM

IMO the Houthis, the Hizbullah and Hamas are not proxies of Iran. They are allies.

John Minehan said in reply to turcopolier ... , 19 July 2019 at 08:19 PM
Much better choice of words than mine. Thus they are a significant wild card here, I would guess.
Harlan Easley , 19 July 2019 at 06:10 PM
When I read the Iranians captured a British Oil tanker it immediately reminded me of this article.
GeneO , 19 July 2019 at 06:18 PM
pl -

I was hoping yesterdays Zarif/Rand Paul discussion would lead to a ratcheting down of tensions. But the hardliners on both sides would hate to have that happen and will attempt to wreck any détente.

Did Zarif offer the idea of allowing more intrusive inspections of its nuclear program before or after his meeting with Paul? In any case some unnamed US officials said it was a non-starter. Probably the unnamed ones were the Mousetache-of-Idiocy and his minions?

Never should have cancelled JCPOA. Why should we have to do Israel/KSA/UAE's dirty work?

Timothy Hagios , 19 July 2019 at 07:50 PM
One recalls the immortal words of former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice: "Absolutely no one could have predicted this."
ambrit , 19 July 2019 at 11:12 PM
Sir;
Isn't the "wild card" here the Israelis?
I can imagine an Iranian government, or perhaps the IRGC in a 'bitter ender' phase targeting Israel proper before they collapse. As the fate of Gerald Ball indicates, the Israelis are understandably paranoid about their regional competitors.
Christian Chuba , 19 July 2019 at 11:34 PM
Iranian grain ships stuck in Brazil due to U.S. sanctions
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-brazil-iran-sanctions/iran-grain-ships-stuck-in-brazil-without-fuel-due-to-u-s-sanctions-idUKKCN1UD2QM

We are now engaging in cartoon villainy in terms of trying to squeeze Iran into a tiny box. Iran cannot transact in dollars so they are reduced to bartering with Brazil for corn. Oops, even their urea export is sanctioned but that doesn't matter because we won't let Brazil sell them fuel oil to ship corn back to their home port. This is flat out evil.

Jim Ticehurst , 20 July 2019 at 12:04 AM
I wondering if the former Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejah ...2005 to 2013 and His "Apocalyptic Shiites" were put in the background...with disinformation about His falling out of Favor....So Iran could play strategic games with the P5+1 agreement IN 2015 especially with President Obama..
SysATI , 20 July 2019 at 12:06 AM
Eric Newhill

"But Iran still loses. Each hit the US Navy takes, strengthens the resolve to crush Iran that much harder."

Cm'on man... wake up and open your eyes...

The US hasn't won any war since... Eternity...
Do I have to remind you what happens in Afghanistan, in Irak or more recently in Syria ?

Well Iran is FIVE times bigger than Syria and is not a divided multicultural/multi-religious country. Do you think that anything you do could change the fact that those 80 something millions people will survive and will ALL be behind their leaders whoever he might be ?

If I was Iranian and even if the leader of the country was Adolf Hitler or some fanatic religious Abu Satanist al Muslim, I would still be behind him if my country was attacked by some foreign bully. My guess is that 99% of the Iranians think the same way....

Forget about allies like Hamas, Hezbollah or Houtis or even China and Russia.
Iran exists since 7000 BC and you really think that the new kid in the block with a couple hundred years of existence would be able to take it out ?
Given your history of military victories ???!!! Don't make me laugh...

Even if you naively believe that, do you think about the consequences of such a war ? Not on Iran, OK, you might level part of the country, but then what ?

Israel would most probably cease to exist. But so as the middle eastern Arab monarchies and most the world's oil industry, which we all depend on...

Which means that the whole planet will suffer for years to come...

If I can't feed my kids because my country can't get enough oil thanks to some nutcase in WDC guess how I'll feel about the US ?

Most of the world already hate you for a reason. If you want to be not just hated but treated like enemies where ever you go, go ahead, bomb Iran, start a war, have the whole world crumble...

And for what ???
Just "because you can" is not a valid answer...

"IMO, if there's going to be war, then the Europeans and Brits should fight it... Of course none of them will step up on their own and the US will have to do this."

Will HAVE TO do this ???!!!

Who the hell is forcing you not to mind your own business ?

Has Iran attacked the US ? Or Britain ? Or Europe ?
Or anyone else in the past several hundreds of years ?
No...


But.... Does the US oil industry would like the oil prices to go up ? YES !!!
Do the crazies in DC want to make more money by selling more weapons ? YES !!!
Do the crazies in Wahabistan hate the Shias and want to get rid of them ? YES !!!
Do the crazies in Israel want to get rid of a powerful neighbor ? YES !!!
Do even some crazies in the US want Israel to go in flames so that Jesus comes back ?

Unfortunately yes...

turcopolier , 20 July 2019 at 11:29 AM
Charles Michael
You are not correct. The Israelis have a deep psychopatholgy about Iranian ballistic missiles and a possible nuclear weapon that might - might exist someday. That has nothing to do with Syria.
David Habakkuk , 20 July 2019 at 01:29 PM
All,

I think the comment by 'Elliot' back in May reflects assumptions which are very deep-seated in the West, are questionable, and if wrong, could prove extraordinarily dangerous. So an extended response seems appropriate.

Of course the Russians have far more limited resources than the United States. What is important is to understand the implications of that fact for their strategic thinking.

On this I would strongly recommend two pieces at the top of the 'Russia' page on the 'World Hot Spots' section of the 'Army Military Press' site.

(See https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Special-Topics/World-Hot-Spots/Russia/ )

The first is a translation of a 2017 article from the journal of the 'Academy of Military Science', entitled 'Color Revolutions in Russia', by A.S. Brychkov and G.A. Nikonorov.

Among other things, this illustrates very well the rather central fact that Russian military strategists are very well aware that one of the things that wrecked the Soviet Union was the attempt to maintain permanent preparedness for a prolonged global war with a power possessing an enormously greater military-industrial potential.

As to the implications for contingency planning for war, these are spelt out in a piece, also published in 207, by the invaluable Major Charles K. Bartles of the Foreign Military Studies Office at Fort Leavenworth, entitled 'Recommendations for Intelligence Staffs Concerning Russian New Generation Warfare.'

At the risk of glossing his meaning overmuch, what is involved is a kind of 'higher synthesis' of the ideas of two figures who were on opposing sides of the arguments of the 'Twenties of the last century, Georgiy Isserson, the pioneering theorist of 'deep operations', and Aleksandr Svechin, who cautioned against an exclusive focus of the 'Napoleonic' strand in Clausewitz.

Both are quoted by the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, General Valery Gerasimov, in his crucial and much misunderstood address to the Academy of Military Science in February 2013, reproduced on the same page as the articles to which I have referred.

What Svechin was saying, in essence, was that an attentive reader of Clausewitz would realise that 'toujours la'audace' should be replaced as a motto by 'l'audace at the right place and time'.

It was crucial to be able to judge when an offensive approach was absolutely the right choice, and caution suicidal, and when the promise of a decisive victory was a snare and a delusion, and defensive and attritional responses appropriate.

(This argument crops up in many contexts: the 'Tabouleh Line' strategy adopted by Hizbullah, which Colonel Lang discussed in posts during and following the 2006 Lebanon War, and also that advocated by James Longstreet at Gettysburg, are classic examples of what Svechin would have seen as circumstances where a sound 'defensive' strategy was the key to victory.)

As regards contemporary Russian thinking, an implication is that one of things they have been trying to create is the ability, in appropriate situations, to use characteristics of 'deep operations' – surprise, speed, shock – in support of clearly limited objectives.

The kind of possibility involved was alluded to in the conversation between the 'Security Adviser' and the 'American Soldier' – seemingly involved on the ground in the 'deconfliction' process – which accompanied Seymour Hersh's June 2017 article in 'Die Welt' on the Khan Sheikhoun sarin incident the previous April, and the U.S. air strikes that resulted.

(See https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article165905618/We-got-a-fuckin-problem.html )

A key exchange:

'SA: There has been a hidden agenda all along. This is about trying to ultimately go after Iran. What the people around Trump do not understand is that the Russians are not a paper tiger and that they have more robust military capability than we do.

'AS: I don't know what the Russians are going to do. They might hang back and let the Syrians defend their own borders, or they might provide some sort of tepid support, or they might blow us the fuck out of the airspace and back into Iraq. I honestly don't know what to expect right now. I feel like anything is possible. The russian air defense system is capable of taking out our TLAMs. this is a big fucking deal...we are still all systems go...'

And that brings one to another critical strand in the approach of contemporary Russian strategic thinkers.

Not simply for war-fighting, but, critically, for 'deterring' the United States from escalating if the Russians do successfully achieve limited objectives, they have been concentrating on 'asymetric' involving focused investment in specific technologies.

So, Bartles explains that the Russian Ground Forces are 'significantly ahead' of the U.S. Army in electronic warfare, key objectives being to disrupt the demonstrated American capability for precision strikes, and also exploit the latent vulnerabilities involved in the dependence of so much equipment on GPS. (As an Army man, he does not discuss the interesting question of naval and air applications.)

And crucially, there has been a focus on developing a very wide range of missiles which 'missile defence' technologies are not going to be able to counter effectively in any forseeable future, and which have steadily increasing range, accuracy and lethality. One central purpose of this, which Gerasimov has spelt out in later addresses to the Academy of Military Science, also available on the page to which I have linked, is to provide non-nuclear 'deterrence' options.

It is, of course, always difficult to be clear as to what is, or is not, hype in claims made for new weapons systems. That said, it is I think at least worth reading some contributions by the Brussels-based American analyst Gilbert Doctorow.

In February, he produced a piece entitled 'The INF Treaty is dead: will the arms race be won this time by the most agile or by the biggest wallet?', and another, headlined 'The Kremlin's Military Posture Re-considered: strategic military parity with the U.S. or absolute military superiority over the U.S.'

(See https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2019/02/05/the-inf-treaty-is-dead-will-the-arms-race-be-won-this-time-by-the-most-agile-or-by-the-biggest-wallet/ ; https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2019/02/24/the-kremlins-military-posture-re-considered-strategic-military-parity-with-the-u-s-or-absolute-military-superiority-over-the-u-s/ .)

Certainly, a good many assertions Doctorow made merit being taken with a pinch of salt, if not a great deal more. However, before one empties the full salt-cellar over them, a few observations are worth making.

How much salt should be applied to Shoigu's assertion that the cost of the systems being developed is hundreds of times less than that of the systems being developed by the United States against Russia I cannot say.

Some questions are however worth putting. It would be interesting to be clearer than I am as to how relevant, or irrelevant, is the fact that for a long time now Russian universities have, frankly, wiped the floor with their Western counterparts in international programming competitions is one.

Another relevant range of issues relates to how expensive the 'software' component of the relevant weaponry actually produced, once it is developed. A third relates to that of how far the new missiles, with their greater range, can be effectively deployed, either by updating old platforms – like Soviet-era bombers – or by creating relatively low cost-ones.

And then of course one comes to the question of how the technical military issues interact with the 'geopolitics' involved. In recent years, a range of different Russian analysts have been claiming, in essence, that the 'Petrine' era of Russian history is over. Three examples, from Dmitri Trenin, Sergei Karaganov, and Vladislav Surkov, can be found at

https://carnegie.ru/2016/12/25/russia-s-post-soviet-journey-pub-66569 ; https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/pubcol/We-Have-Used-Up-the-European-Treasure-Trove-19769 ; https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/book/The-Loneliness-of-the-Half-Breed-19575 .

If, as Trenin argued back in 2016, Russia has moved from aspiring to become part of a 'Greater Europe' to seeing itself as a central part of a 'Greater Eurasia', then this has implications for how it should react to the asymetry which was central to Soviet views of INF in the 'Eighties.'

Put simply, INF in Europe can pose a 'decapitation' threat to Russia, while Russian INF do not do so to the United States.

At that time, the deployment of cruise and Pershing II helped to encourage a burgeoning awareness among important sections of the 'security intelligentsia' in Moscow of the extent to which their own security policies – of which the SS-20 deployment was just one of many examples – had created suspicion, fear and antagonism.

The conclusion – classically expressed in Georgiy Arbatov's joke about the terrible thing that Gorbachev was going to do to the United States, deprive it of an enemy – turned out hopelessly naive. The liquidation of the existing Soviet security posture did not lead to any lesssening of Western antagonism.

In his second piece, Doctorow has an interesting discussion of views expressed by Yakov Kedmi, the sometime 'refusenik' who became a pivotal figure in organising Russian Jewish emigration to Israel, and is now a regular guest on Russian television. And he writes:

'Perhaps Kedmi's most interesting and relevant observation is on the novelty of the Russian response to the whole challenge of American encirclement. He noted that for the past 200 or more years the United States considered itself secure from enemies given the protection of the oceans. However, in the new Russian military threat, the oceans will now become the most vulnerable point in American defenses, from which the decapitating strike can come.'

Putting the point another way. Potentially at least, the 'Greater Eurasia' as Trenin describes it includes the Western European countries – indeed, it appears to include Ireland. It is, obviously, enormously in the interest of the Russians to include these, in that doing so both makes it possible to isolate the 'Anglo-Saxons', and also to provide a counterweight to Chinese preponderance.

To do so however – and at this point I am moving towards my own speculations, rather than simply relying upon better-informed observers – requires a complicated balancing act.

On the one hand, the West Europeans – above all the Germans – have to be persuaded that if they persist in following with the 'Russia delenda est' agendas of traditional 'Anglo' Russophobes, and 'revanchists' from the 'borderlands', they should not think this is going to be cost-free.

But on the other, the promise has to be implied that, if they 'see sense' and realise that their future is with a 'Greater Eurasia', without their needing to 'remilitarise' in any serious way, then they will not be threatened militarily.

This balancing act, ironically, makes it absolutely imperative for the Russians not to threaten the Baltics – particularly given their historical links to Germany.

By the same token, it provides a particularly cogent reason for threatening to respond to new American IMF deployments in Europe with ones that target the United States.

[Jul 20, 2019] The UK's Dubious Role in the New Tanker War With Iran naked capitalism

Jul 20, 2019 | www.nakedcapitalism.com

https://c.deployads.com/sync?f=html&s=2343&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nakedcapitalism.com%2F2019%2F07%2Fthe-uks-dubious-role-in-the-new-tanker-war-with-iran.html

https://eus.rubiconproject.com/usync.html

https://acdn.adnxs.com/ib/static/usersync/v3/async_usersync.html <img src="http://b.scorecardresearch.com/p?c1=2&c2=16807273&cv=2.0&cj=1" /> Iran has also said that it will not only follow graded response to the sanctions, including possible exiting from the JCPOA, but also reconsider its participation in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, a thinly veiled threat to follow in North Korea's footsteps. It is clear that Iran will fight the status quo arising out of Trump's maximum pressure policies in various ways, and not allow itself to be economically strangulated.

The UK's position has now become very dubious. Why did it seize Iran's supertanker Grace 1 in the Gibraltarwaters? Four of Grace 1 's officers, including the ship's captain, all Indians, have been charged in a Gibraltar court and are now out on bail.

In a new twist on this issue, we now know that Gibraltar changed its law underpinning the seizure just one day before it occurred . This adds weight to reports in Spain quoting government sources that the UK carried out the seizing of the tanker under U.S.instructions.

The argument that Grace 1 was carrying crude oil to Syria's Baniyas refinery, and so was violating European sanctions on Syria, sounds weak on various counts.The Gibraltar court's order mentions EU Regulation 36/2012 on sanctions on Syria as the basis for action against Grace 1 . Oil exports from Syria to the EU have been banned, but not oil imports to Syria under EU regulations. Also, imports to the Baniyas refinery are banned for machinery and equipment , not oil.

More important: In international trade, do countries through which transit takes place have the right to impose their laws on the merchandise in transit? For example, can pharmaceutical products from India, which arein consonance with Indian and the receiving country's laws, be seized in transit in Europe if they violate the EU's patent laws? Such seizures have happened , creating a trade dispute between India and the EU. The EU finally agreed not to seize such goods in transit. So can the EU extend its sanctions to goods in transit through its waters? Assuming the crude was indeed for Syria -- which Iran has denied -- do EU sanctions apply when transiting through Gibraltar waters? In short, was the UK imposing EU sanctions on Syria -- or U.S.sanctions on Iran?

There has also been another incident involving Iran and the UK in the developing Tanker War 2. This makes the UK's role even more suspect. Iran has denied the UK's story of its empty tanker Heritage being blocked by Iranian boats in the Persian Gulf. The U.S., which first broke the story, claimed it was five Iranian boats that tried to seize a British tanker. The UK authorities claimed that it was three Iranian boats that were impeding the tanker's journey, which were driven off by a British warship. The Iranians deny that any such incident took place. No video or satellite image of the incident has been made public, though a U.S.aircraft reportedly took video footage of the incident. In his Twitter feed, BBC's Defense Correspondent Jonathan Beale condemned the failure of the British government to release images of the incident: "UK MOD say they will NOT be releasing any imagery from incident in Gulf when @HMS_MONTROSE confronted #Iran IRGC boats. Shame as far as I'm concerned."

What remains unexplained is why the empty UK tanker switched off its transponder before the alleged incident for about 24 hours, particularly in the period when it was passing through the Strait of Hormuz -- or why an empty tanker was accompanied by a British warship. Was the UK baiting Iran by manufacturing a maritime incident in the Gulf?

UK Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt has said on Twitter that after a phone call with Javad Zarif, Iran's foreign minister, he offered to release the tanker Grace 1 on the condition that it will not send the oil to Syria. This still begs the question of the UK's locus in deciding the destination of Iranian oil -- or why Iran should accept EU sanctions.

[Jul 17, 2019] Oil Is Driving the Iran Crisis by Michael T. Klare

Highly recommended!
Washington's aggression is part of a decades-long quest to control the spigot in the Persian Gulf.
Notable quotes:
"... As it happens, the world economy -- of which the United States is the leading beneficiary (despite President Trump's self-destructive trade wars) -- relies on an uninterrupted flow of oil from the Persian Gulf to keep energy prices low. By continuing to serve as the principal overseer of that flow, Washington enjoys striking geopolitical advantages that its foreign policy elites would no more abandon than they would their country's nuclear supremacy. ..."
"... True, Washington fought wars in the Middle East when the American economy was still deeply vulnerable to any disruption in the flow of imported oil. In 1990, this was the key reason President George H.W. Bush gave for his decision to evict Iraqi troops from Kuwait after Saddam Hussein's invasion of that land. "Our country now imports nearly half the oil it consumes and could face a major threat to its economic independence," he told a nationwide TV audience. ..."
"... All told, 33.6 percent of world energy consumption last year was made up of oil, 27.2 percent of coal (itself a global disgrace), 23.9 percent of natural gas, 6.8 percent of hydro-electricity, 4.4 percent of nuclear power, and a mere 4 percent of renewables. ..."
"... Concluding that the increased demand for oil in Asia, in particular, will outweigh reduced demand elsewhere, the IEA calculated in its 2017 World Energy Outlook that oil will remain the world's dominant source of energy in 2040, accounting for an estimated 27.5 percent of total global energy consumption. That will indeed be a smaller share than in 2018, but because global energy consumption as a whole is expected to grow substantially during those decades, net oil production could still rise -- from an estimated 100 million barrels a day in 2018 to about 105 million barrels in 2040. ..."
"... More dramatic yet is the growing centrality of the Asia-Pacific region to the global flow of petroleum. In 2000, that region accounted for only 28 percent of world consumption; in 2040, its share is expected to stand at 44 percent, thanks to the growth of China, India, and other Asian countries, whose newly affluent consumers are already buying cars, trucks, motorcycles, and other oil-powered products. ..."
"... To lend muscle to what would soon be dubbed the "Carter Doctrine," the president created a new US military organization, the Rapid Deployment Joint Task Force (RDJTF), and obtained basing facilities for it in the Gulf region. Ronald Reagan, who succeeded Carter as president in 1981, made the RDJTF into a full-scale "geographic combatant command," dubbed Central Command, or CENTCOM, which continues to be tasked with ensuring American access to the Gulf today (as well as overseeing the country's never-ending wars in the Greater Middle East). ..."
"... When ordering US forces into combat in the Gulf, American presidents have always insisted that they were acting in the interests of the entire West. In advocating for the "reflagging" mission of 1987, for instance, Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger argued (as he would later recall in his memoir Fighting for Peace ), "The main thing was for us to protect the right of innocent, nonbelligerent and extremely important commerce to move freely in international open waters -- and, by our offering protection, to avoid conceding the mission to the Soviets." Though rarely so openly acknowledged, the same principle has undergirded Washington's strategy in the region ever since: The United States alone must be the ultimate guarantor of unimpeded oil commerce in the Persian Gulf. ..."
"... Look closely and you can find this principle lurking in every fundamental statement of US policy related to that region and among the Washington elite more generally. My own personal favorite, when it comes to pithiness, is a sentence in a report on the geopolitics of energy issued in 2000 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies , a Washington-based think tank well-populated with former government officials (several of whom contributed to the report): "As the world's only superpower, [the United States] must accept its special responsibilities for preserving access to [the] worldwide energy supply." You can't get much more explicit than that. ..."
"... As things stand today, any Iranian move in the Strait of Hormuz that can be portrayed as a threat to the "free flow of commerce" (that is, the oil trade) represents the most likely trigger for direct US military action. Yes, Tehran's pursuit of nuclear weapons and its support for radical Shiite movements throughout the Middle East will be cited as evidence of its leadership's malevolence, but its true threat will be to American dominance of the oil lanes, a danger Washington will treat as the offense of all offenses to be overcome at any cost. ..."
Jan 11, 2019 | thenation.com

EDITOR'S NOTE: This article originally appeared at TomDispatch.com .

It's always the oil. While President Trump was hobnobbing with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the G-20 summit in Japan, brushing off a recent UN report about the prince's role in the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was in Asia and the Middle East, pleading with foreign leaders to support "Sentinel." The aim of that administration plan: to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf.

Both Trump and Pompeo insisted that their efforts were driven by concern over Iranian misbehavior in the region and the need to ensure the safety of maritime commerce. Neither, however, mentioned one inconvenient three-letter word -- O-I-L -- that lay behind their Iranian maneuvering (as it has impelled every other American incursion in the Middle East since World War II).

Now, it's true that the United States no longer relies on imported petroleum for a large share of its energy needs. Thanks to the fracking revolution , the country now gets the bulk of its oil -- approximately 75 percent -- from domestic sources. (In 2008, that share had been closer to 35 percent.) Key allies in NATO and rivals like China, however, continue to depend on Middle Eastern oil for a significant proportion of their energy needs.

As it happens, the world economy -- of which the United States is the leading beneficiary (despite President Trump's self-destructive trade wars) -- relies on an uninterrupted flow of oil from the Persian Gulf to keep energy prices low. By continuing to serve as the principal overseer of that flow, Washington enjoys striking geopolitical advantages that its foreign policy elites would no more abandon than they would their country's nuclear supremacy.

This logic was spelled out clearly by President Barack Obama in a September 2013 address to the UN General Assembly in which he declared that "the United States of America is prepared to use all elements of our power, including military force, to secure our core interests" in the Middle East. He then pointed out that, while the United States was steadily reducing its reliance on imported oil, "the world still depends on the region's energy supply and a severe disruption could destabilize the entire global economy."

Accordingly, he concluded, "We will ensure the free flow of energy from the region to the world." To some Americans, that dictum -- and its continued embrace by President Trump and Secretary of State Pompeo -- may seem anachronistic. True, Washington fought wars in the Middle East when the American economy was still deeply vulnerable to any disruption in the flow of imported oil. In 1990, this was the key reason President George H.W. Bush gave for his decision to evict Iraqi troops from Kuwait after Saddam Hussein's invasion of that land. "Our country now imports nearly half the oil it consumes and could face a major threat to its economic independence," he told a nationwide TV audience.

But talk of oil soon disappeared from his comments about what became Washington's first (but hardly last) Gulf War after his statement provoked widespread public outrage . ("No Blood for Oil" became a widely used protest sign then.) His son, the second President Bush, never even mentioned that three-letter word when announcing his 2003 invasion of Iraq. Yet, as Obama's UN speech made clear, oil remained, and still remains, at the center of US foreign policy. A quick review of global energy trends helps explain why this has continued to be so.

THE WORLD'S UNDIMINISHED RELIANCE ON PETROLEUM

Despite all that's been said about climate change and oil's role in causing it -- and about the enormous progress being made in bringing solar and wind power online -- we remain trapped in a remarkably oil-dependent world. To grasp this reality, all you have to do is read the most recent edition of oil giant BP's "Statistical Review of World Energy," published this June. In 2018, according to that report, oil still accounted for by far the largest share of world energy consumption, as it has every year for decades. All told, 33.6 percent of world energy consumption last year was made up of oil, 27.2 percent of coal (itself a global disgrace), 23.9 percent of natural gas, 6.8 percent of hydro-electricity, 4.4 percent of nuclear power, and a mere 4 percent of renewables.

Most energy analysts believe that the global reliance on petroleum as a share of world energy use will decline in the coming decades, as more governments impose restrictions on carbon emissions and as consumers, especially in the developed world, switch from oil-powered to electric vehicles. But such declines are unlikely to prevail in every region of the globe and total oil consumption may not even decline. According to projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its " New Policies Scenario " (which assumes significant but not drastic government efforts to curb carbon emissions globally), Asia, Africa, and the Middle East are likely to experience a substantially increased demand for petroleum in the years to come, which, grimly enough, means global oil consumption will continue to rise.

Concluding that the increased demand for oil in Asia, in particular, will outweigh reduced demand elsewhere, the IEA calculated in its 2017 World Energy Outlook that oil will remain the world's dominant source of energy in 2040, accounting for an estimated 27.5 percent of total global energy consumption. That will indeed be a smaller share than in 2018, but because global energy consumption as a whole is expected to grow substantially during those decades, net oil production could still rise -- from an estimated 100 million barrels a day in 2018 to about 105 million barrels in 2040.

Of course, no one, including the IEA's experts, can be sure how future extreme manifestations of global warming like the severe heat waves recently tormenting Europe and South Asia could change such projections. It's possible that growing public outrage could lead to far tougher restrictions on carbon emissions between now and 2040. Unexpected developments in the field of alternative energy production could also play a role in changing those projections. In other words, oil's continuing dominance could still be curbed in ways that are now unpredictable.

In the meantime, from a geopolitical perspective, a profound shift is taking place in the worldwide demand for petroleum. In 2000, according to the IEA, older industrialized nations -- most of them members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) -- accounted for about two-thirds of global oil consumption; only about a third went to countries in the developing world. By 2040, the IEA's experts believe that ratio will be reversed, with the OECD consuming about one-third of the world's oil and non-OECD nations the rest.

More dramatic yet is the growing centrality of the Asia-Pacific region to the global flow of petroleum. In 2000, that region accounted for only 28 percent of world consumption; in 2040, its share is expected to stand at 44 percent, thanks to the growth of China, India, and other Asian countries, whose newly affluent consumers are already buying cars, trucks, motorcycles, and other oil-powered products.

Where will Asia get its oil? Among energy experts, there is little doubt on this matter. Lacking significant reserves of their own, the major Asian consumers will turn to the one place with sufficient capacity to satisfy their rising needs: the Persian Gulf. According to BP, in 2018, Japan already obtained 87 percent of its oil imports from the Middle East, India 64 percent, and China 44 percent. Most analysts assume these percentages will only grow in the years to come, as production in other areas declines.

This will, in turn, lend even greater strategic importance to the Persian Gulf region, which now possesses more than 60 percent of the world's untapped petroleum reserves, and to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passageway through which approximately one-third of the world's seaborne oil passes daily. Bordered by Iran, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates, the Strait is perhaps the most significant -- and contested -- geostrategic location on the planet today.

CONTROLLING THE SPIGOT

When the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979, the same year that militant Shiite fundamentalists overthrew the US-backed Shah of Iran, US policy-makers concluded that America's access to Gulf oil supplies was at risk and a US military presence was needed to guarantee such access. As President Jimmy Carter would say in his State of the Union Address on January 23, 1980,

The region which is now threatened by Soviet troops in Afghanistan is of great strategic importance: It contains more than two thirds of the world's exportable oil. The Soviet effort to dominate Afghanistan has brought Soviet military forces to within 300 miles of the Indian Ocean and close to the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which most of the world's oil must flow. Let our position be absolutely clear: an attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force.

To lend muscle to what would soon be dubbed the "Carter Doctrine," the president created a new US military organization, the Rapid Deployment Joint Task Force (RDJTF), and obtained basing facilities for it in the Gulf region. Ronald Reagan, who succeeded Carter as president in 1981, made the RDJTF into a full-scale "geographic combatant command," dubbed Central Command, or CENTCOM, which continues to be tasked with ensuring American access to the Gulf today (as well as overseeing the country's never-ending wars in the Greater Middle East).

Reagan was the first president to activate the Carter Doctrine in 1987 when he ordered Navy warships to escort Kuwaiti tankers, " reflagged " with the stars and stripes, as they traveled through the Strait of Hormuz. From time to time, such vessels had been coming under fire from Iranian gunboats, part of an ongoing " Tanker War ," itself part of the Iran-Iraq War of those years. The Iranian attacks on those tankers were meant to punish Sunni Arab countries for backing Iraqi autocrat Saddam Hussein in that conflict. The American response, dubbed Operation Earnest Will , offered an early model of what Secretary of State Pompeo is seeking to establish today with his Sentinel program.

Operation Earnest Will was followed two years later by a massive implementation of the Carter Doctrine, President Bush's 1990 decision to push Iraqi forces out of Kuwait. Although he spoke of the need to protect US access to Persian Gulf oil fields, it was evident that ensuring a safe flow of oil imports wasn't the only motive for such military involvement. Equally important then (and far more so now): the geopolitical advantage controlling the world's major oil spigot gave Washington.

When ordering US forces into combat in the Gulf, American presidents have always insisted that they were acting in the interests of the entire West. In advocating for the "reflagging" mission of 1987, for instance, Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger argued (as he would later recall in his memoir Fighting for Peace ), "The main thing was for us to protect the right of innocent, nonbelligerent and extremely important commerce to move freely in international open waters -- and, by our offering protection, to avoid conceding the mission to the Soviets." Though rarely so openly acknowledged, the same principle has undergirded Washington's strategy in the region ever since: The United States alone must be the ultimate guarantor of unimpeded oil commerce in the Persian Gulf.

Look closely and you can find this principle lurking in every fundamental statement of US policy related to that region and among the Washington elite more generally. My own personal favorite, when it comes to pithiness, is a sentence in a report on the geopolitics of energy issued in 2000 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies , a Washington-based think tank well-populated with former government officials (several of whom contributed to the report): "As the world's only superpower, [the United States] must accept its special responsibilities for preserving access to [the] worldwide energy supply." You can't get much more explicit than that.

Of course, along with this "special responsibility" comes a geopolitical advantage: By providing this service, the United States cements its status as the world's sole superpower and places every other oil-importing nation -- and the world at large -- in a condition of dependence on its continued performance of this vital function.

Originally, the key dependents in this strategic equation were Europe and Japan, which, in return for assured access to Middle Eastern oil, were expected to subordinate themselves to Washington. Remember, for example, how they helped pay for Bush the elder's Iraq War (dubbed Operation Desert Storm). Today, however, many of those countries, deeply concerned with the effects of climate change, are seeking to lessen oil's role in their national fuel mixes. As a result, in 2019, the countries potentially most at the mercy of Washington when it comes to access to Gulf oil are economically fast-expanding China and India, whose oil needs are only likely to grow. That, in turn, will further enhance the geopolitical advantage Washington enjoyed as long as it remains the principal guardian of the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf. How it may seek to exploit this advantage remains to be seen, but there is no doubt that all parties involved, including the Chinese, are well aware of this asymmetric equation, which could give the phrase "trade war" a far deeper and more ominous meaning.

THE IRANIAN CHALLENGE AND THE SPECTER OF WAR

From Washington's perspective, the principal challenger to America's privileged status in the Gulf is Iran. By reason of geography, that country possesses a potentially commanding position along the northern Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, as the Reagan administration learned in 1987–88 when it threatened American oil dominance there. About this reality President Reagan couldn't have been clearer. "Mark this point well: The use of the sea lanes of the Persian Gulf will not be dictated by the Iranians," he declared in 1987 -- and Washington's approach to the situation has never changed.

In more recent times, in response to US and Israeli threats to bomb their nuclear facilities or, as the Trump administration has done, impose economic sanctions on their country, the Iranians have threatened on numerous occasions to block the Strait of Hormuz to oil traffic, squeeze global energy supplies, and precipitate an international crisis. In 2011, for example, Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi warned that should the West impose sanctions on Iranian oil, "not even one drop of oil can flow through the Strait of Hormuz." In response, US officials have vowed ever since to let no such thing happen, just as Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta did in response to Rahimi at that time. "We have made very clear," he said , "that the United States will not tolerate blocking of the Strait of Hormuz." That, he added, was a "red line for us."

It remains so today. Hence, the present ongoing crisis in the Gulf, with fierce US sanctions on Iranian oil sales and threatening Iranian gestures toward the regional oil flow in response. "We will make the enemy understand that either everyone can use the Strait of Hormuz or no one," said Mohammad Ali Jafari, commander of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards, in July 2018. And attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman near the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz on June 13 could conceivably have been an expression of just that policy, if -- as claimed by the United States -- they were indeed carried out by members of the Revolutionary Guards. Any future attacks are only likely to spur US military action against Iran in accordance with the Carter Doctrine. As Pentagon spokesperson Bill Urban put it in response to Jafari's statement, "We stand ready to ensure the freedom of navigation and the free flow of commerce wherever international law allows."

As things stand today, any Iranian move in the Strait of Hormuz that can be portrayed as a threat to the "free flow of commerce" (that is, the oil trade) represents the most likely trigger for direct US military action. Yes, Tehran's pursuit of nuclear weapons and its support for radical Shiite movements throughout the Middle East will be cited as evidence of its leadership's malevolence, but its true threat will be to American dominance of the oil lanes, a danger Washington will treat as the offense of all offenses to be overcome at any cost.

If the United States goes to war with Iran, you are unlikely to hear the word "oil" uttered by top Trump administration officials, but make no mistake: That three-letter word lies at the root of the present crisis, not to speak of the world's long-term fate.

Michael T. Klare The Nation 's defense correspondent, is professor emeritus of peace and world-security studies at Hampshire College and senior visiting fellow at the Arms Control Association in Washington, DC. His newest book, All Hell Breaking Loose: The Pentagon's Perspective on Climate Change , will be published this fall.

[Jul 09, 2019] The real issue is the control of Iranian oil by the USA and EU

Notable quotes:
"... It is the Iranian (upper/middle class) exiles who hate and detest the revolutionary regime, because the regime has deprived them of the right to rule, that they thought was their hereditary ..."
"... But the Gulf States don't give a fig about that. They are concerned about the simple renaissance of Iranian power, which might deprive the Sunni potentates of their own position. ..."
"... Yes, it is precisely Iran's success that threatens the Gulf Autocrats, Israel, and Uncle Sugar, each for slightly different reasons, or perhaps the same reasons in different amounts. ..."
Jul 09, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

Laguerre , Jul 8 2019 16:29 utc | 14

re Don 7

Crooke points out, correctly I believe, that the real issue is not nuclear, or the oft-repeated foolish "largest state sponsor of terrorism," it is the revolutionary basis of Iran's success in the Middle East, besting the Gulf dictators.
That bit about the revolution, I don't agree with. It's more the Iranian renaissance that the Gulf States fear.

Two separate aspects need to be distinguished:

1) It is the Iranian (upper/middle class) exiles who hate and detest the revolutionary regime, because the regime has deprived them of the right to rule, that they thought was their hereditary right. Even within Iran, upper/middle class people I met had the same attitude - a kind of hurt that they weren't running the country. The regime is of course populist.

2) But the Gulf States don't give a fig about that. They are concerned about the simple renaissance of Iranian power, which might deprive the Sunni potentates of their own position. The classic case is of course Bahrain, where the "king" is Sunni, and the vast mass of the population Shi'a, and they're kept down by force, supported by the guns of the US 5th fleet. But the case of Saudi is much more serious, because it's so much bigger, and every single oil well is sitting under the feet of the Shi'a, and there are none anywhere else, certainly not in the Saudi homeland of Najd, which is real camel-herder territory (to which we can expect the Saudi princes to return, if ever the poor suffering Shi'a ever manage a successful revolt).

I think Crooke confused the two issues a bit.

Bemildred , Jul 8 2019 16:43 utc | 16

Yes, it is precisely Iran's success that threatens the Gulf Autocrats, Israel, and Uncle Sugar, each for slightly different reasons, or perhaps the same reasons in different amounts.

Those being: it's Shiia, it's populist, and it was indeed a political revolution. And for all of them it represents a viable alternative to the way they wanted things to be. Now, I think, it's too late. Many will take note of what they have done and how, it will be studied.

[Jul 09, 2019] Iran's Judiciary Chief Ebrahim Raisi has demanded an immediate release of an Iranian oil tanker seized by the British government, Fars reported.

Jul 09, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

Don Bacon , Jul 8 2019 17:16 utc | 23

@ UJ 21

As b mentioned, stay tuned for a major op. against the British East India Company.

from the Tehran Times:

TEHRAN – Iran's Judiciary Chief Ebrahim Raisi has demanded an immediate release of an Iranian oil tanker seized by the British government, Fars reported.

"It seems that the British and Europeans are well aware of the Islamic Republic's reach and potential , and accordingly, it is to their own benefit that they immediately release this oil tanker, otherwise they should await the ramifications of their action," Raisi said on Monday.

[Jul 06, 2019] Why is Iran such a high priority for US elite? Because Iran successfully booted out the CIA and CIA-imposed regime out of their country and successfully remained independent since then

Highly recommended!
Notable quotes:
"... There is at present no other powerful leadership group that is so adamantly unwilling to compromise with the U.S. The potential loss of U.S. control over Middle East oil being at the root of it. ..."
"... The Saudis et al have it, and Israel is a forward operating base for protecting it. The Saudi royal family rightly fear an Iran-inspired popular uprising against them and Israel fears the loss of lands granted to them by their invisible friend as related in a popular fairy tale. ..."
"... Iran is a relatively large country with a semi independent foreign policy and banking,/ financial system, and they want to control their own resources independent of western dictates about opening up their system to the neo liberal system. ..."
"... Because Iran successfully booted out the CIA and CIA-imposed regime out of their country and successfully remained independent since then. ..."
"... Iran was after WW2 a client state of both the US and the UK, the latter installing the Shah as a ruler. Iran was important for the US and the UK through its oil resources and its border with the USSR. ..."
"... Iran is still a major player when it comes to oil, but contrary to the Shah years quite hostile to the aspirations of Israel to become the “western” power in the middle east. ..."
"... The enmity clearest showed up when Israel and the USA supplied Saddam Hussein with intelligence and Germany and France with the capability to produce chemical weapons during the Iraq/Iran war. ..."
"... America essentially followed the old British approach towards Iran: keep it semi-alive so that it can put up enough resistance to the USSR until America’s more important and intrinsic interests, such as those in the Persian Gulf, were safeguarded. But Washington never wanted to turn Iran into a strong ally that one day might be capable of challenging America. ..."
"... By changing the international balance of power and removing the risk of Soviet penetration, the USSR’s fall eliminated Iran’s value to the United States even as a buffer state. In fact, the fundamental shift to a US approach based on the principle of no compromise, can be traced to 1987, when Gorbachev’s reforms began. ..."
"... Since then, the United States has refused to accept any solution to the Iran problem that has not involved the country’s absolute capitulation. ..."
"... For instance, in 2003, Iran offered to put all the outstanding issues between the two countries on the table for negotiations, but the US refused. ..."
"... Because Iran refuses to be a second-class citizen in its own neighborhood. Theirs is an ancient culture whose legacy to the world is enormous, their history is the stuff of legend, and they are the geopolitical power player in the region, not to mention the most powerful Shia Muslim nation. ..."
Jul 06, 2019 | www.nakedcapitalism.com

Joe Well, July 5, 2019 at 11:47 am

>>US President Donald Trump’s ruthless use of the centrality of his country’s financial system and the dollar to force economic partners to abide by his unilateral sanctions on Iran has forced the world to recognise the political price of asymmetric economic interdependence.

Why is Iran such a high priority for so many US elites?

Lee, July 5, 2019 at 12:28 pm

Just spit-balling here: The Iranian leadership, with good cause, wants to diminish or eliminate the U.S. grip on the region and this subversive, potentially destabilizing sentiment resonates among the citizenry of various Middle Eastern countries.

There is at present no other powerful leadership group that is so adamantly unwilling to compromise with the U.S. The potential loss of U.S. control over Middle East oil being at the root of it.

The Saudis et al have it, and Israel is a forward operating base for protecting it. The Saudi royal family rightly fear an Iran-inspired popular uprising against them and Israel fears the loss of lands granted to them by their invisible friend as related in a popular fairy tale.

This is hardly definitive and I’m sure others could elaborate.

workingclasshero, July 5, 2019 at 12:53 pm

Iran is a relatively large country with a semi independent foreign policy and banking,/ financial system, and they want to control their own resources independent of western dictates about opening up their system to the neo liberal system.

I’m sure this is obvious to most people at this kind of web site and is overly simplistic but i sense sometimes some people are shocked about the conflict with Iran and don’t get that basic dynamic of this conflict.

Underdog Revolutions, July 5, 2019 at 1:34 pm

Because Iran successfully booted out the CIA and CIA-imposed regime out of their country and successfully remained independent since then.

US elites never forgave them for it. Same reason they hate and punish Cuba, another country that poses no threat to anyone but its own citizens.

Peter Moritz, July 5, 2019 at 1:46 pm

Why is Iran such a high priority for so many US elites?

Iran was after WW2 a client state of both the US and the UK, the latter installing the Shah as a ruler. Iran was important for the US and the UK through its oil resources and its border with the USSR.

Mossadegh, by nationalising the oil supply until, played against the status and he was overthrown in a MI/CIA sponsored coup in 1953, leaving the Shah as the sole ruler in Iran till the revolution of 1979 when Iran came under theocratic rule and basically diminished the power the US had throughout the years of the Shah’s rule.

The US was also shown to be quite powerless -- short of an invasion -- to deal with the hostage crisis in the US embassy, which was finally after more than a year resolved with the help of Canada.

Iran is still a major player when it comes to oil, but contrary to the Shah years quite hostile to the aspirations of Israel to become the “western” power in the middle east.

The enmity clearest showed up when Israel and the USA supplied Saddam Hussein with intelligence and Germany and France with the capability to produce chemical weapons during the Iraq/Iran war.

Here is a more in-depth look:

https://lobelog.com/the-real-causes-of-americas-troubled-relations-with-iran/

This U.S. approach towards Iran has been the result of its lack of an intrinsic interest in the country. The same was true of Britain. The late Sir Denis Right, the UK’s ambassador to Iran in the 1960s, put it best by writing that Britain never considered Iran of sufficient value to colonize it. But it found Iran useful as a buffer against the competing great power, the Russian Empire. Thus, British policy towards Iran was to keep it moribund but not dead, at least not as long as the Russian threat persisted.

America essentially followed the old British approach towards Iran: keep it semi-alive so that it can put up enough resistance to the USSR until America’s more important and intrinsic interests, such as those in the Persian Gulf, were safeguarded. But Washington never wanted to turn Iran into a strong ally that one day might be capable of challenging America.

By changing the international balance of power and removing the risk of Soviet penetration, the USSR’s fall eliminated Iran’s value to the United States even as a buffer state. In fact, the fundamental shift to a US approach based on the principle of no compromise, can be traced to 1987, when Gorbachev’s reforms began.

Since then, the United States has refused to accept any solution to the Iran problem that has not involved the country’s absolute capitulation.

For instance, in 2003, Iran offered to put all the outstanding issues between the two countries on the table for negotiations, but the US refused.

ChiGal in Carolina, July 5, 2019 at 6:38 pm

Because Iran refuses to be a second-class citizen in its own neighborhood. Theirs is an ancient culture whose legacy to the world is enormous, their history is the stuff of legend, and they are the geopolitical power player in the region, not to mention the most powerful Shia Muslim nation.

[Jul 06, 2019] Ilargi: Memo to the US The Winds Are Shifting

Notable quotes:
"... Yes. It's piracy. USA a Pirate Nation. UK a useful part of the gang. ..."
"... I mean, empires have always been expansionist, violently expansionist. I mean, this is bad, but the empire is the empire. What bothers me is the lying. The filthy unbelievable lies emanating from the likes of Hillaria Terroristica and Pompeus Maximus and even from Obama the Salesman emperor, Emperor Tex Bush the second, and our current Carnival Barker Emperor Trumpius the Rube Caller. Let alone the generals lying thru their teeth. ..."
"... There should have a new slogan for this international cabal -- "Strength through Chaos". To be precise, OUR strength through THEIR chaos. ..."
"... You could safely leave out anywhere in the Americas, I think, after reading Confessions of an Economic Hitman . Less bombs, same benevolent results. The US/Mexican Border comes to mind, filled with refugees from Guatemala and Honduras. ..."
"... I very much agree with Illargi on this. Nothing good can come from the "heroic" seizure of the tanker. Mission accomplished: we are more idiotic every passing day. ..."
"... The purpose, and effect, of empire is theft. ..."
Jul 06, 2019 | www.nakedcapitalism.com

Posted on July 5, 2019 by Yves Smith

By Raúl Ilargi Meijer, editor of Automatic Earth. Originally published at Automatic Earth

How do you define terror? Perhaps, because of the way the term has evolved in the English language, one wouldn't call the west 'terrorists' per se, but 'we' are certainly spreading terror and terrorizing very large groups of people. Yeah, bring on the tanks and parade them around town. Add a marching band that plays some war tunes.

The 'official' storyline : at the request of the US, Gibraltar police and UK marines have seized an oil tanker in Gibraltar. The super-tanker, 1000 feet (330 meters) long, carrying 2 million barrels, had stopped there after sailing all around the Cape of Good Hope instead of taking the Suez canal on its way, ostensibly, from Iran to Syria.

And, according to the storyline as presented to and in the western press, because the EU still has sanctions on Iran, the British seized the ship. Another little detail I really appreciate is that Spain's acting foreign minister, Josep Borrell, said Madrid was looking into the seizure and how it may affect Spanish sovereignty since Spain does not recognize the waters around Gibraltar as British.

That Borrell guy is the newly picked EU foreign policy czar, and according to some sources he's supportive of Iran and critical of Israel. Them's the webs we weave. He's certainly in favor of Palestinian statehood. But we're wandering

Why did the tanker take that giant detour along the African coastline? Because potential problems were anticipated in the Suez canal. But also: why dock in Gibraltar? Because no problems were anticipated there. However, the US had been following the ship all along, and set this up.

A trap, a set-up, give it a name. I would think this is about Iran, not about sanctions on Syria; that's just a convenient excuse. Moreover, as people have been pointing out, there have been countless arms deliveries to Syrian rebels in the past years (yes, that's illegal) which were not seized.

The sanctions on Syria were always aimed at one goal: getting rid of Assad. That purpose failed either miserably or spectacularly, depending on your point of view. It did achieve one thing though, and if I were you I wouldn't be too sure this was not the goal all along.

That is, out of a pre-war population of 22 million, the United Nations in 2016 identified 13.5 million Syrians requiring humanitarian assistance; over 6 million are internally displaced within Syria, and around 5 million are refugees outside of Syria. About half a million are estimated to have died, the same number as in Iraq.

And Assad is still there and probably stronger than ever. But it doesn't even matter whether the US/UK/EU regime change efforts are successful or not, and I have no doubt they've always known this. Their aim is to create chaos as a war tactic, and kill as many people as they can. How do you define terror, terrorism? However you define it, 'we' are spreading it.

That grossly failed attempt to depose Assad has left Europe with a refugee problem it may never be able to control. And the only reason there is such a problem is that Europe, in particular Britain and France, along with the US, tried to bomb these people's homelands out of existence. Because their leaders didn't want to conform to "our standards", i.e. have our oil companies seize and control their supplies.

But while you weren't looking some things changed, irreversibly so. The US and Europe are no longer the undisputed and overwhelming global military power they once were. Russia has become a target they cannot even consider attacking anymore, because their armies, assembled in NATO, wouldn't stand a chance.

China is not yet at the 'might' level of Russia, but US and NATO are in no position to attack a country of 1.4 billion people either. Their military prominence ended around the turn of the century/millennium, and they're not going to get it back. Better make peace fast.

So what we've seen for a few decades now is proxy wars. In which Russia in particular has been reluctant to engage but decisive when it does. Moscow didn't want to let Assad go, and so they made sure he stayed. Syria is Russia's one single stronghold in the Middle East, and deemed indispensable.

Meanwhile, as over half of Syrians, some 11 million people, have been forced to flee their homes, with millions of them traumatized by war, 'we' elect to seize a tanker allegedly headed for a refinery in the country, so we can make sure all those people have no oil or less oil for a while longer.

So the refugees that do have the courage and will to return will find it that much harder to rebuild their homes and towns, and will tell those still abroad not to join them. At the same time Assad is doing fine, he may be the target of the sanctions but he doesn't suffer from them, his people do.

Yes, let's parade some tanks around town. And let's praise the heroic UK marines who seized an utterly defenseless oil tanker manned by a bunch of dirt-poor Philippinos. Yay! There is probably some profound irony that explains why Trump and Bolton and Pompeo want a military parade at the very moment the US military must concede defeat in all theaters but the propaganda one.

Still there it is. The only people the US, the west, can still credibly threaten, are defenseless civilians, women, children. The leaders of nations are out of reach. Maduro, Assad, let alone Putin or Xi.

Happy 4th of July. Not sure how independent you yourself are, but I can see a few people who did achieve independence from western terror. Just not the poor, the ones that count. But don't look at the tanks, look at the wind instead. The winds are shifting.


Clive , July 5, 2019 at 4:32 am

The EU has been a sticking plaster and a shot of Novocain at the open wound that is Gibraltar. Without that stabilising influence, that plaster is about to be ripped off and a slash of neat peroxide is about to be poured onto it.

Watch for more -- unpleasant -- developments coming soon on this one.

The Rev Kev , July 5, 2019 at 5:44 am

I wondered about that myself. There could be an unspoken message now out that the UK gets to say who gets to use the Straits of Gibraltar. I am sure that the Spanish would see no problem with that. One thing is sure. That is a few more countries that the UK has completely antagonized now which will come back to bite it post-Brexit.

Colonel Smithers , July 5, 2019 at 6:20 am

Thank you and well said, Gentlemen, Clive, the Reverend and the author, and to Yves for sharing.

The winds are indeed shifting, but as long as defeat is not obvious in the propaganda theatre, that's all that matters.

The NC community, especially Anonymous 2, David and Harry, have often written about the calibre of civil servants in the Treasury with regard to Brexit, it's the same with the Foreign Office and the Ministry of Defence.

Middle East experts, often termed "Arabists", have left, often forced out for ideological reasons. They would have cautioned against such adventures. The newer and younger breed of Foreign Office officials, e.g. the co-author of the dodgy / sexed up (WMD) dossier Matthew Rycroft, and some veterans like John Scarlet, now retired and consulting with former Tory MP James Arbuthnott (whose wife "presided" over Assange's recent hearing), are far more ideological (neo con) and willing to blur the boundaries between impartial advice and enabling what politicians want. There are few, if any regional, specialists at the Foreign Office any more.

Sadly, it's the same with the officer corps, more ideological, enablers and less, if at all, cognizant of the strategic implications of such actions.

As the above happens, HMG becomes more and more dependent on advice from the likes of US neo con think tanks, especially the Henry Jackson Society. Unlike at the Treasury and Bank of England, so far, no such neo cons and neo liberals have been imported from the former colonies by the Foreign Office.

As both Clive and the Reverend conclude, watch out for more unpleasant developments things that come back to bite the UK.

PlutoniumKun , July 5, 2019 at 9:23 am

Maybe there is something else behind it, but it does seem to be a very clumsy operation – its annoyed a lot of important people (not least in Spain) at just the time when this isn't needed for the UK. I wonder if the neocon element in Whitehall is using the interregnum in power to seek to bind the UK even more firmly to the US post Brexit.

Alex Cox , July 5, 2019 at 1:56 pm

"Russia has become a target they cannot even consider attacking anymore, because their armies, assembled in NATO, wouldn't stand a chance."

I am not sure the current crop of politicians and bureaucrats in the UK (or the US) know this.

As the Colonel observes, people with specialist knowledge are being replaced with ideologically-motivated enablers. And the Pentagon and its NATO assets stress their ability to wage a "limited" nuclear war

animalogic , July 6, 2019 at 6:11 am

"China is not yet at the 'might' level of Russia, but US and NATO are in no position to attack a country of 1.4 billion people either."

Indeed. And I would suggest China's "might level" is very close to not only Russia's but the US's. Just as a for instance: the PLAN (Peoples' Liberation Army Navy) has instituted probably the largest ship building program in history. All its newer vessels are equal to or (significantly?) better than comparable US types.

JBird4049 , July 6, 2019 at 8:17 pm

All this war talk about just how fabulously strong, or not, this and that polity is annoyingly ignorant; let's look at the reality that China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and the Philippines, would all be facing strong food shortages without any harvest failures. With even moderate shortfalls, add in the rest of the world as countries start scrambling for food to stockpile even those who are completely self sufficient. The United States has destroyed it industrial base so much that it cannot provide all the parts, tools, white goods, clothing, etc that it needs just to function daily. I have not checked Russia's economy, but I suspect that like the UK, or any European country it needs other countries to survive.

One of the reasons that the British almost lost World War One, that Germany did, and the nations that used to be the Austro-Hungarian Empire did so poorly after that war was the breaking up of all those trade connections. Everyone was gung-ho on war or independence, but no-one has made any plans whatsoever on to run their economy(ies) after the first few years of war or peace. And no, sticking it all on the Germans did not work either.

skippy , July 5, 2019 at 6:58 am

I'm starting to get that last election feeling where previous sorts went a bit curious when confronted with the choices and the past went poof . strangest thing[s]

cnchal , July 5, 2019 at 5:38 am

Peace though procurement malpractice. The current batch of military hardware is so much garbage that when the President wants to use the "superb" pieces of crap (F35 and the new boats are prime examples) a general will have to become the sacrificial lamb and give the president the news that this stuff is for show only.

Bill Smith , July 5, 2019 at 6:15 am

The Israelis claim to like the F-35 and to have used it in Syria to attack Syrian Air Defense installations after the Syrian Air Defense installations fired at their other manned aircraft.

That's something of an endorsement of it's capabilities. How much I don't know.

PlutoniumKun , July 5, 2019 at 9:04 am

It has been claimed that an F-35 was damaged beyond repair on one attack . I don't know if anyone has got to bottom of these claims. It does seem a bit hard to accept that a bird strike could have led to the scrapping of an entire airframe.

I think the issue of Israeli use of US aircraft is complex – the US seems to have pressurised Israel to drop its own aircraft, the Lavi , and it may well have been that giving Israel priority with the F-35 was part of the quid quo pro over that. For many countries, choosing the F-35 seems to owe more to politics than defence considerations.

jrkrideau , July 6, 2019 at 6:39 pm

I have, for some time, been of the opinion that one of the (relatively minor) reasons that Turkey went with the S-400's is that it gets them out of the F-35 contract without legal financial penalties. I bet the reports of the Turkish crews training in the US have been scathing.

I have wondered if the Saab JAS 39 Gripen or the Su-57 might be good contenders.

I think it was RT that reported the other day that Russia is planning on starting full production of the Su-57 in 2020. Given that it was speculated that production of the Su-57 was too expensive with the Russian Federation as the only customer, I wonder who might be interested. China? Renewed Indian interest? Turkey ?

Personally, I think we in Canada should ask Sukho to submit a bid for our fighter replacement program.

drumlin woodchuckles , July 5, 2019 at 6:29 pm

Israelis may have been instructed to say that as a favor in return for all the aid.

cnchal , July 6, 2019 at 6:37 am

> But this time I thought how awful it would be to hear those monsters and know they were loaded with missiles and there was no safe place to hide.

Around here there is a boat race where the military flies jets for show and quite a few years ago, on a Saturday,while I was tinkering in the garage, this one pilot, and he or she must have been having a grand old time, really put on a show. For half an hour to an hour the neighborhood was subjected to the most thunderous roar, it made my skin crawl and hair stand up, and I started thinking about and getting a tiny taste of the terror people that are actual targets of this machine get.

On Sunday, there was no "air" show. So many people bitched and complained about Saturday the military or show organizers called it off. Phone calls to stop the jets does not work in the middle east, however.

Synoia , July 6, 2019 at 3:33 pm

Drones appear effective. They certainly were at Gatwick.

Sharkleberry Fin , July 5, 2019 at 6:33 am

Am I supposed to feel sorry for the sanction-busting war profiteers losing their illicit cargo? Or am I supposed to feel sorry for Assad not being able to top off the gas tank on his human rights violating war wagon?

Nobody's cool with the jingoism coming from the White House. But if the tanks come out for only just this one very special episode of the Apprentice, the people of earth have dodged a very obnoxious golden BB.

pjay , July 5, 2019 at 7:24 am

" war profiteers." " human rights violating war wagon " Hmm. Those phrases call certain images and actors to mind. Iran? Syria? No, that's not it

timbers , July 5, 2019 at 8:09 am

You're supposed to feel sorry for millions America killed in Syria and many other nations, and the tens of millions she displaced from their homes.

According to the U.N., Nobel Peace prize winning Obama caused the greatest refugee crisis since WW2 with all the browned skinned nations he bombed until America ran out of bombs and then he made more and bombed again – Libya, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Ukraine who have I missed there so many .

Said another way, The War on Terror IS terrorism.

About 10 years I started to realize the U.S. is an Evil Empire, a force for evil in the world.

Happy 4th.

And may the bombing continue until there is peace. There are so many countries this great nation has not yet bombed. Maybe we're just getting warmed up.

timbers , July 5, 2019 at 12:42 pm

Google "UN says greatest refugee crisis since world war" and you'll annual reports starting about 2014 till about 2017 – the Apex of the Obama wars – each year replacing the previous year as all time records as humanitarian disasters.

Carolinian , July 5, 2019 at 8:39 am

Interesting word "illicit" meaning "outside the law." So exactly what law gives the Americans and their faithful poodles the authority to do this?

Gibraltar was once the playground of the Barbary Pirates so it is an appropriate venue for the hegemon to engage in a little piracy of its own. But Ilargi may be right that the winds are shifting and bullies will get their comeuppance.

divadab , July 5, 2019 at 10:57 am

Yes. It's piracy. USA a Pirate Nation. UK a useful part of the gang.

I mean, empires have always been expansionist, violently expansionist. I mean, this is bad, but the empire is the empire. What bothers me is the lying. The filthy unbelievable lies emanating from the likes of Hillaria Terroristica and Pompeus Maximus and even from Obama the Salesman emperor, Emperor Tex Bush the second, and our current Carnival Barker Emperor Trumpius the Rube Caller. Let alone the generals lying thru their teeth.

It makes the whole enterprise ridiculous – no one but the stupidest and most brainwashed believes the filthy liars. Terrible that our ruling class are traitors to the country – because why lie unless you have no respect for those ruled? Lie to the stupid cattle – let them repeat the lies and laugh at their stupidity.

Carolinian , July 5, 2019 at 12:58 pm

The Iranians are calling it piracy and now claim the right to seize any British oil tanker in their waters. Perhaps they have passed "sanctions" against the Brits or the EU.

I'm thinking of passing some sanctions myself under my sovereign powers and seizing some stuff. Hey why not? EU says it's ok.

Oh , July 5, 2019 at 8:48 am

Sanctions are for OUR profiteers, not their. We impose them so that our corporations and profiteers can benefit from higher blackmark prices. When others cut into the profit it will not be tolerated.

skippy , July 5, 2019 at 7:16 am

I think the glass jaw is appropriate, long time PR machinations are finding it harder to peddle, considering the outcomes, hence the need for rather vulgar public displays of military Sergeant Major marching up and down the field too imbue greatness on the unwashed by proxy whilst swirling down the gurgler.

This is made even more surreal by grandiose gestures of minuscule proportions magnified way beyond their scope in the big scheme of things sans a modern news cycle.

For some ridiculous reason I keep envisioning all the new data on shipwrecks during the east indies company era and the findings .. silly me

Stephen Haust , July 5, 2019 at 7:32 am

I still don't understand why so many "commentators" have to try discussing
important topics without considering basic facts.

There are classes of ships called, for instance, Panamax or now specifically Suezmax.
These are the largest vessels that can transit said canals. The Panama Canal has locks
of a specific size and therefore there is a hard limit. Suezmax is a bit harder to define
because, without locks, it can vary some.

But there is a maximum and at just a first glance this vessel is at least near it.

"Why did the tanker take that giant detour along the African coastline? Because
potential problems were anticipated in the Suez canal." Well, yes. But which problems.
There seem to be many, starting with the fact that the Grace 1 is under the Iranian
flag. But besides that, it is not at all unusual for a vessel of that size to sail around the
Cape. There are many reasons. I, myself, have made a longer passage in a smaller
vessel – 13100 nautical miles from Kharg Island in Iran to New Brunswick
(Irving refinery). Around the Cape. Nobody was particularly surprised.

Reminiscent of all those US "journalists" piling on to an Aeroflot flight to Havana in
search of Edward Snowden. They, and the world, were certain he was aboard, until
the craft flew over downtown Miami.

Synoia , July 5, 2019 at 10:24 am

Cargos are sold and resold in transit, and thus destinatipns change.

I once was on a Tanker destined for Houston. The voyage then became a trip to the Persian Gulf.

Stephen Haust , July 5, 2019 at 5:47 pm

Yes, that would be unusual but according to the articles of engagement
it could happen.

More relevant though is that there are lots of reasons for
a loaded tanker to take an indirect route not necessarily having
much to do with the ownership of the cargo. The "tanker trackers"
don't seem to be unduly surprised by the itinerary. Happens every
day.

Incidentally, I was once on a tanker sailing from Providence, RI
with orders to "steam due south until you hear from us". That could
have led to some interesting results. In the event, however, we
ended up in India after a change in engagements. The return leg
of that voyage was the 13100 mile passage I mentioned earlier.
Another time I thought I was going somewhere in the Caribbean and
ended up on a circumnavigation. Hey, it's normal. Let's not get too
excited about somebody who wants to go around the Cape instead
of risking Suez.

By the way, my experiences all occurred under the US flag so why
try to find some strange dirt on the Iranians when they are only
doing what everybody else does.

Stephen Haust , July 5, 2019 at 7:38 am

Well, maybe Panamanian flag. But please, folks, can't we just "engage
brain before operating mouth".

Amusingly here CNN has outpaced NC in the field of journalistic accuracy.
They went and asked somebody who might know a little.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/04/uk/tanker-syria-gibraltar-intl-gbr/index.html

Awww! Them sneaky bastards.

The Rev Kev , July 5, 2019 at 10:30 am

I don't think that you get it. The US seized a North Korean ship a few weeks back and now the US had the UK seize an Iranian ship on 'suspicions'. Do you really want to see an international situation for trade where ships can be seized as political pawns and sold? Or maybe airplanes as well? The big insurance companies certainly want to know. The Iranians are saying that they now have the right to seize a British ship in retaliation. Will the Brits sell that captured ship? Will they sell the oil aboard or take it back to the UK for their own use? Do we really want to see a widespread return to Prize Laws again?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prize_(law)

a different chris , July 5, 2019 at 7:52 am

Can we give you some sort of award for admitting you made a mistake with your first post, and then admonishing us to "engage brain before operating mouth" ?

I mean that is a classic.

sierra7 , July 5, 2019 at 5:22 pm

"Game of Thrones" LOL!! The more time changes the more it stays the same!
It's "piracy" if "they" do it to us (or our co-conspirators); it's "legal sanctions" if we do "it" to "them".

What a farcical, lying, two-faced world we live in!

Mike , July 5, 2019 at 8:44 am

There should have a new slogan for this international cabal -- "Strength through Chaos". To be precise, OUR strength through THEIR chaos.

Has this been the "plan" for this period since the end of World War Two? Even if it is not a "conspiracy", but rather a "concatenation of interests", what difference does this terminology make to those suffering the boot heel?

JCC , July 5, 2019 at 1:58 pm

You could safely leave out anywhere in the Americas, I think, after reading Confessions of an Economic Hitman . Less bombs, same benevolent results. The US/Mexican Border comes to mind, filled with refugees from Guatemala and Honduras.

Neither the Reagan Years (and those years before) nor the Obama Years have been a picnic for many that live anywhere in CA (other than possibly CR and Panama). Not that most of those running those countries are in any way innocent, particularly those that we funneled arms and money to.

ex-PFC Chuck , July 5, 2019 at 11:36 am

". . but for the most part, the U.S. was fairly benevolent and . .

I suggest you read yesterday's post entitled, " Michael Hudson Discusses the IMF and World Bank: Partners In Backwardness ." That may lead to your rethinking the excerpt quoted above.

John Merryman. , July 5, 2019 at 11:55 am

The term, "ugly Americans" is fairly old.

Synoia , July 5, 2019 at 10:30 am

Cargos are sold and resold in transit, and thus destinatipns change.

I once was on a Tanker destined for Houston. The voyage then became a trip to the Persian Gulf.

Ignacio , July 5, 2019 at 11:08 am

I very much agree with Illargi on this. Nothing good can come from the "heroic" seizure of the tanker. Mission accomplished: we are more idiotic every passing day.

rjs , July 5, 2019 at 1:44 pm

re: Why did the tanker take that giant detour along the African coastline?

in case anyone else has not yet noted it, super tankers, VLCCs that can carry as much as 2 million barrels, cannot get through the Suez canal, which is limited to oil tankers in the aptly named "Suezmax" class, less than half that size

Tim , July 5, 2019 at 9:26 pm

Yeah this is not a well educated writer. Contradicts his own story at one point, and no the US can't afford to get into a major war,but that does mean they lose either, the other side would still lose more.

Tyronius , July 5, 2019 at 3:28 pm

The winds change are blowing, indeed. Is that the fog of war on the horizon, or the smokestacks of progress? Neither is good for the environment but as they say, fight one battle at a time.

America's War On Terror has long since become the War OF Terrorism and it's good to see the rest of the world has not only caught on but is doing something about it. Great Britain went quietly and prospered. Will America do the same or will it struggle against the inevitable? I suspect a bit of both. We do love to kill poor innocent brown people, after all. It's what we're best at.

Time to find another line of work. Surely we can find something more productive to do?

RBHoughton , July 5, 2019 at 9:32 pm

The war on terror is a war on non-combatants. Its western terrorists, spooks and soldiers, against Asian terrorists, Muslims.The other form of terrorism against non-combatants is nuclear war – that's when the military attacks civilian targets like we did in WWII in Hamburg and Dresden and Tokyo but using more destructive ordinance.

Can we say, in light of the regular failures of our initiatives overseas, that we the people are expecting something that is not intended. We imagine war is fought to achieve unconditional surrender and bring the humiliated enemy to our feet begging for life but perhaps these attacks in the Middle East and North Africa are not for a military victory at all but to take away the natural resources of those countries, using the fog of war to conceal our purpose?

Oregoncharles , July 6, 2019 at 12:20 am

The purpose, and effect, of empire is theft.

Eclair , July 6, 2019 at 6:44 am

Putting that on my approved list of bumper stickers. Or, maybe sticking it on the bathroom mirror as a daily reminder.

[Jul 06, 2019] >China calls Trump's bluff; Trump blinks on sanctions threat - caucus99percent

Jul 06, 2019 | caucus99percent.com

China calls Trump's bluff; Trump blinks on sanctions threat

span ed by gjohnsit on Fri, 07/05/2019 - 4:37pm

Trump made it perfectly clear: No one will buy Iranian oil and still do business with America. That includes China .

Two Trump administration officials said on Friday that neither a wind-down period nor a short-term waiver on China's oil purchases from Iran are being contemplated after Washington surprised Iran's customers on Monday by demanding they halt the purchases by May 1 or face sanctions.
The administration has been clear to China, Iran's top oil consumer, about no additional waivers to the sanctions after the ones granted last November, one of the senior officials said.

No additional waivers. No wind-down period.
It's clear and final.

Do you know who else is clear and final? China .

China is buying Iranian oil in defiance of US sanctions and providing what Tehran hopes will be a financial lifeline for the country's buckling economy.

Although Beijing customs data show crude purchases from Iran are down month-on-month, China is still importing Tehran's oil despite US measures designed to cut exports to "zero".

Last week the Chinese received their first delivery of an Iranian oil cargo since the Trump administration in May scrapped exemptions on Iranian sanctions.

So Trump is a big, tough, strongman. So what do you think he's going to do when he's challenged?
He's going to fold .

But according to three U.S. officials, the department's Iran czar, Brian Hook, and his team of negotiators have discussed granting China a waiver to a 2012 law intended to kneecap the Iranian oil industry. The alternative is allowing China, which recently welcomed a shipment of approximately a million barrels of Iranian oil, openly to defy U.S. sanctions.
...
The 2012 Iran Freedom and Counterproliferation Act targeted the Iranian shipping, shipbuilding and energy sectors, requiring states or companies that wish to import Iranian oil and conduct business with the U.S. to obtain waivers from the U.S. government. A separate law targeted purchases, rather than imports of that oil.

Officials say the State Department is discussing an arrangement that would allow China to import Iranian oil as payment in kind for sizable investments of the Chinese oil company Sinopec in an Iranian oil field -- and administration officials have offered to issue a waiver for the payback oil in official correspondence between the State Department and Sinopec, according to a source familiar with the situation.

The waiver is merely a face-saving measure. China is going to continue to defy the sanctions one way or another.
And if China gets a waiver then India will too.
As it stands, India has halted buying Iranian oil, but that has just pushed them into buying more Russian oil .

[Jul 04, 2019] Daesh oil vs Iran oil

Jul 04, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

karlof1 , Jul 4 2019 18:20 utc | 29

SyrianaAnalysis founder Kevork Almassian spins the tanker arrest thusly:

"While #ISIS was stealing the Syrian oil & selling it to #Turkey, the so-called #US led coalition (#UK included) against Daesh wasn't interested in stopping the theft of #Syria's oil.

"But today the UK stopped an oil tanker delivering energy to the Syrian people."

Quite witty, IMO. Note the EU-3 all supported the terrorist invasion of Syria, the destruction of Libya, and NATO's accusing Iran of sponsoring terrorism.

Pompeo's new slogan: Terrorism daily baby!


james , Jul 4 2019 17:10 utc | 11

Spain's caretaker Foreign Minister Josep Borrell said the British targeted the tanker on a request from the US. He added that Spain, which considers the waters off Gibraltar as its own, was assessing the implications of the operation.

Iran has reportedly acknowledged ownership of the cargo. Its foreign ministry summoned the British ambassador in Tehran to protest the "unlawful seizure of the Iranian tanker," according to the IRNA news agency.

According to Reuters, the MT Grace 1 has been used by Iran in the past to ship crude to Singapore and China in defiance of unilateral sanctions imposed against Iran by the US. The current trip allegedly started in Iran's port of Bandar Assalyeh, thought the papers state that the crude was loaded in the Iraqi port of Basra.

In seizing the tanker under the pretext of sanctions on Syria, the EU seems to be at least partially siding with Washington, which is trying to cripple the Iranian economy through harsh economic sanctions. The pressure campaign was escalated after the US broke its commitment under the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran.

"Maybe the EU was trying to show that it was siding with the Americans, playing its part in anti-Iranian policy? We know that the Trump administration has been critical of the European countries," Ali Rizk, a Middle East-based journalist and writer, told RT.

"And it's likely a demonstration against Syria. It all helps an ongoing plan of parting Syria with its allies."

https://www.rt.com/news/463379-iran-crude-tanker-gibraltar/

Ant. , Jul 4 2019 17:13 utc | 12

@1 Allegedly(?), this oil tanker sailed from Basra in Iraq (not Iran) and remarkably went around Africa rather than sail through the Suez, and further it allegedly also turned it's transponder off(?)... as usual, we'll have to wait for real facts to emerge. It's still quite unusual to intercept an oil tanker so blatantly when much more nefarious shipments are going on.

Seems to me certain western governments do whatever they want, and no longer care about international legalities.

gzon , Jul 4 2019 17:28 utc | 18

Grace1 tanker was being tracked for a long time

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-sanctions-oil-exclusive/exclusive-how-iran-fuel-oil-exports-beat-u-s-sanctions-in-tanker-odyssey-to-asia-idUSKCN1R10G9

is from three months ago.

She is now Panama flagged (presumably) Russian owned

IMO number 9116412
Name of the ship GRACE 1
Type of ship CRUDE OIL TANKER
MMSI 355271000
Gross tonnage 156880 tons
DWT 273769 tons
Year of build 1997
Builder HYUNDAI HEAVY INDUSTRIES - ULSAN, SOUTH KOREA
Flag PANAMA
Class society LLOYD'S SHIPPING REGISTER
Manager & owner RUSSIAN TITAN SHIPPING LINES - DUBAI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
Former names MERIDIAN LION until 2013 Mar
OVERSEAS MERIDIAN until 2011 Jun
MERIDIAN LION until 2006 Feb

The reason for holding the ship is given as breaking EU sanctions on Syria. Not JCPOA related (in principle).

Here is a short but incomplete primer on Gibraltar territorial waters. The even more extreme Spanish view is that only the port is Gibraltarian, or simply that Gibraltar is Spanish.

https://www.quora.com/As-Gibraltar-is-surrounded-by-Spanish-waters-can-Spain-block-any-ship-coming-from-or-to-Gibraltar


gzon , Jul 4 2019 17:48 utc | 23

Just to note Grace1 is anchored off the south east of Gibraltar, within the 3 mile Gibraltar limit now, I don't know if she was stopped inside that zone, or why she would venture into that 3 mile zone. In short it will be important to know what position she was when boarded, the only info I have is that she veered hard to port into the Gibraltar 3 mile limit, but am not sure if before or after being boarded. The Spanish government has said it tolerates Gibraltar "acting in its waters" in this case because the action was based on EU sanctions.

[Jul 01, 2019] Russia Says It Is Overcomplying With OPEC Production Quota OilPrice.com

Jul 01, 2019 | oilprice.com

https://cdn.districtm.io/ids/index.html Russia's oil production in June was 50,000 bpd below the level Moscow had pledged under the OPEC and non-OPEC production cut agreement, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Monday, as carried by Russian news agency Interfax .

As part of the OPEC+ production cuts between January and June, Russia is taking the lion's share of the non-OPEC cuts and pledged to reduce production by 230,000 bpd from October's post-Soviet record level of 11.421 million bpd, to 11.191 million bpd.

[Jul 01, 2019] On Friday, Russia signalled its commitment to secure Iran's oil and banking sectors, should the EU's INSTEX clearing mechanism not be working effectively by July 7

Jul 01, 2019 | www.strategic-culture.org

Trump's Iran Policy Dangerously Flawed Assumptions, With No Plan 'B' by Alastair Crooke

Ultimately, Trump will find himself in a corner in which he never wished to find himself: It may already be too late. He is there.

Professor Russell-Mead tells us "that the key to the president's Iran policy is that his nose for power [and Trump is a keen judge of power, R-M insists] is telling him Iran is weaker, and the US stronger than the foreign-policy establishment believes What Mr. Trump wants is a deal with Iran that matches his sense of the relative power of the two countries " (emphasis added).

"At the level of public diplomacy, [Trump] is engaging in his standard mix of dazzle and spin[turning American politics into the Donald Trump Show, with the country and the world fixated on his every move, speculating feverishly about what will come next, R-M suggests] And at the level of power politics he is steadily and consistently tightening the screws on Iran: arming its neighbors and assuring them of his support, tightening sanctions, and raising the psychological pressure on the regime.

"Mr. Trump well understands the constraints under which his Iran policy is working. Launching a new Middle East war could wreck his presidency. But if Iran starts the war, that's another matter. A clear Iranian attack on American or even Israeli targets could unite Mr. Trump's Jacksonian base like the attack on Pearl Harbor united America's Jacksonians to fight Imperial Japan."

Russell-Mead's analysis probably has it right. But there is more to it than that: Trump's approach is based on some further underlying key assumptions: Firstly, that, with the Iranian economy tanking, and inflation soaring (Trump repeats this unfounded assertion frequently), the Iranian revolutionary system will either implode, or approach Washington, on its knees, asking for a new nuclear deal.

Two: Trump can afford to wait out this impending implosion, and just lever up the economic pressures in the meanwhile. Three: Trump claims that a war with Iran would be short: "I'm not talking boots on the ground," he said . "I'm just saying if something would happen, it wouldn't last very long". And four: Trump said, (and appears to believe), that he wouldn't need an "exit strategy" in the event of a war with Iran, which suggests that he may really think that the war would be limited to a brief air campaign, and then it would be over.

What to say? Well, only that all of these assumptions are almost certainly wrong – and, as Daniel Larison in The American Conservative notes , "if the US president thinks that a war with Iran "wouldn't last very long," he is probably going to be more willing to start it. Iran hawks are already predictably emphasizing that attacking Iran wouldn't be like Iraq or Afghanistan, and they are saying that in part to overcome Trump's apparent reservations about getting bogged down in a protracted conflict". Iran indeed would not be like Afghanistan or Iraq, but in an entirely different way to that claimed by the hawks.

Well, Iran will not be imploding economically: On Friday, Russia signalled its commitment to secure Iran's oil and banking sectors, should the EU's INSTEX clearing mechanism not be working effectively by 7 July (when Iran's window to Europe on this issue closes). Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Friday that Moscow is ready to help Iran export its crude and ease restrictions on its banking system should Europe fail to make INSTEX a viable mechanism. China too, has stated that "normal energy dealings" with Tehran are in accordance with law, and should be respected. The Governor of the Central Bank of Iran said this week that Iran has "climbed past the peak of sanctions. Our oil exports are on the rise", Hemmati said .

If the 'implosion hypothesis' is flawed, so too is the claim that Iran will come begging for a new nuclear deal from Mr Trump. Here, by way of illustration, is the (Iranian) account of what the Supreme Leader said to Prime Minister Abe:

"During the meeting with Abe Shinzo (on 13 June), the latter told Ayatollah Khamenei that "I would like to give you a message from the President of the United States".

"Ayatollah Khamenei responded by pointing to the US ingenuity and untrustworthiness, and argued, "We do not doubt your [Abe's] sincerity and goodwill. However, regarding what you mentioned about the President of the US, I do not consider Trump as a person worth exchanging any message with and I have no answer for him, nor will I respond to him in the future ."

"[But] what I am going to say, is said to you as the Japanese Prime Minister, and because we consider Japan a friend of ours

"Ayatollah Khamenei noting Shinzo's assertion that the US intends to prevent Iran's production of nuclear weapons said, "We are opposed to the nuclear weapons and my religious Fatwa bans production of nuclear weapons; but you should know that if we intended to produce nuclear weapons, the US could do nothing; and its non-permission [would] not be any obstacle."

"The Supreme leader, in response to the message that "the United States is not after regime change in Iran", insisted that "Our problem with the United States is not about regime change. Because even if they intend to pursue that, they won't be able to achieve it When Trump says that he is not after regime change, it is a lie. For, if he could do so, he would. However, he is not capable of it."

"Ayatollah Khamenei similarly referred to the Japanese prime minister's remarks regarding the United States' request to negotiate with Iran about the nuclear issue, and said, "The Islamic Republic of Iran negotiated for 5 to 6 years with the United States and the Europeans -- the P 5+1 -- which led to an agreement. But the United States disregarded and breached this definite agreement. So, does common sense permit negotiations with a state that has thrown away everything that was agreed upon?"

"He pointed to the forty years of hostility that the US has showed to the Iranian nation and its continued hostility, and said, "We believe that our problems will not be solved by negotiating with the US, and no free nation would ever accept negotiations under pressure."

And 'pressures' are precisely what the US is adding: i.e. increasing pressures, rather than easing them – which stands probably as the sine qua non to resuming negotiations with Iran. But then Trump holds to the view that America is entitled – by virtue of its greater power – to negotiate with others only when the counterparties are under 'maximum pressure'. Plainly, he has not been briefed well on the Iranian history of stoically enduring far worse and violent cataclysms. Nor, that Iranians can draw on a stratum of spiritual resilience from the narrative of Imam Hussein at times of crisis.

How so? The notion of an 'Iran on the cusp of collapse' is a meme being peddled by various disgruntled Iranian exiles, and by the MEK, as well as by prominent hawks in the US. But equally – and importantly, given Trump's own family predilections – this narrative of 'just one push' and the Iranian Revolution 'is over' is being constantly urged by Netanyahu. (Other Israelis are not so happy at their PM's open and avid support for Trump's policy on Iran – recalling how Israel (and Netanyahu) were accused of having pushed for the 2003 Iraq war).

So. If the assumption that Iran will either collapse, or capitulate under economic pressure, is false; and that the presumption that 'no exit strategy' is required, because Iran is weak and the US is militarily strong (implying that a short, quick air strike would settle matters) – is similarly flawed, where then are we headed?

If these underlying assumptions continue to pass without serious challenge, then, as time passes, Iran will neither have imploded, nor capitulated, as presaged; but rather, it will have continued to send calibrated, incrementally ascending 'messages' to demonstrating the potential costs of pursuing such a policy – with the pain being experienced principally by those US allies who continually advocate for harsh US 'measures' against Iran.

Ultimately, Trump will find himself in a corner in which he never wished to find himself: It may already be too late. He is there. Either having to react militarily to Iranian 'messages', with all the potential for asymmetric Iranian counterstrikes and ratchetting escalation: A prospect from which instinctively he recoils, because he fears this route of indecisive military tit-for-tat may not play out well for him in terms of the 2020 elections. And even could risk his Presidency.

Or, a humiliating, concessionary journey of return into a process closely mirroring the (despised) JCPOA – whatever be its new name: And hope to call the defeat as 'victory'.

Quite possibly, President Putin may have it in mind to lay out some of this prospective landscape when he met with Trump at Osaka. We probably won't be told. We'll never know.

[Jun 29, 2019] Have You Heard Of The CIA s Iran Mission Center by Vijay Prashad

Notable quotes:
"... To head the Iran Mission Center, the CIA appointed Michael D'Andrea. D'Andrea was central to the post-9/11 interrogation program, and he ran the CIA's Counterterrorism Center. Assassinations and torture were central to his approach. ..."
"... What is germane to his post at the Iran Mission Center is that D'Andrea is close to the Gulf Arabs, a former CIA analyst told me. The Gulf Arabs have been pushing hard for action against Iran, a view shared by D'Andrea and parts of his team. For his hard-nosed attitude toward Iran, D'Andrea is known -- ironically -- as "Ayatollah Mike." ..."
"... D'Andrea and people like Bolton are part of an ecosystem of men who have a visceral hatred for Iran and who are close to the worldview of the Saudi royal family . These are men who are reckless with violence, willing to do anything if it means provoking a war against Iran. Nothing should be put past them. ..."
"... D'Andrea's twin outside the White House is Thomas Kaplan, the billionaire who set up two groups that are blindingly for regime change in Iran. The two groups are United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) and Counter Extremism Project. There is nothing subtle here. These groups -- and Kaplan himself -- promote an agenda of great disparagement of Muslims in general and of Iran in particular. ..."
"... It is fitting that Kaplan's anti-Iran groups bring together the CIA and money. The head of UANI is Mark Wallace, who is the chief executive of Kaplan's Tigris Financial Group, a financial firm with investments -- which it admits -- would benefit from "instability in the Middle East." Working with UANI and the Counter Extremism Project is Norman Roule, a former national intelligence manager for Iran in the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence. ..."
"... These men -- Kaplan and Bolton, D'Andrea and Shihabi -- are eager to use the full force of the U.S. military to further the dangerous goals of the Gulf Arab royals (of both Saudi Arabia and of the UAE). When Pompeo walked before cameras, he carried their water for them. These are men on a mission. They want war against Iran. ..."
Jun 29, 2019 | www.zerohedge.com

Authored by Vijay Prashad via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

In 2017, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) created a special unit -- the Iran Mission Center -- to focus attention on the U.S. plans against Iran . The initiative for this unit came from CIA director John Brennan, who left his post as the Trump administration came into office. Brennan believed that the CIA needed to focus attention on what the United States sees as problem areas -- North Korea and Iran, for instance. This predated the Trump administration.

Brennan's successor -- Mike Pompeo, who was CIA director for just over a year (until he was appointed U.S. Secretary of State) -- continued this policy. The CIA's Iran-related activity had been conducted in the Iran Operations Division (Persia House). This was a section with Iran specialists who built up knowledge about political and economic developments inside Iran and in the Iranian diaspora.

It bothered the hawks in Washington -- as one official told me -- that Persia House was filled with Iran specialists who had no special focus on regime change in Iran. Some of them, due to their long concentration on Iran, had developed sensitivity to the country.

Trump's people wanted a much more focused and belligerent group that would provide the kind of intelligence that tickled the fancy of his National Security Adviser John Bolton .

To head the Iran Mission Center, the CIA appointed Michael D'Andrea. D'Andrea was central to the post-9/11 interrogation program, and he ran the CIA's Counterterrorism Center. Assassinations and torture were central to his approach.

It was D'Andrea who expanded the CIA's drone strike program, in particular the signature strike. The signature strike is a particularly controversial instrument. The CIA was given the allowance to kill anyone who fit a certain profile -- a man of a certain age, for instance, with a phone that had been used to call someone on a list. The dark arts of the CIA are precisely those of D'Andrea.

What is germane to his post at the Iran Mission Center is that D'Andrea is close to the Gulf Arabs, a former CIA analyst told me. The Gulf Arabs have been pushing hard for action against Iran, a view shared by D'Andrea and parts of his team. For his hard-nosed attitude toward Iran, D'Andrea is known -- ironically -- as "Ayatollah Mike."

D'Andrea and people like Bolton are part of an ecosystem of men who have a visceral hatred for Iran and who are close to the worldview of the Saudi royal family . These are men who are reckless with violence, willing to do anything if it means provoking a war against Iran. Nothing should be put past them.

The initiative for this unit came from CIA director John Brennan, who left his post as the Trump administration came into office. Getty Image.

D'Andrea and the hawks edged out several Iran experts from the Iran Mission Center, people like Margaret Stromecki -- who had been head of analysis. Others who want to offer an alternative to the Pompeo-Bolton view of things either have also moved on or remain silent. There is no space in the Trump administration, a former official told me, for dissent on the Iran policy.

Saudi Arabia's War

D'Andrea's twin outside the White House is Thomas Kaplan, the billionaire who set up two groups that are blindingly for regime change in Iran. The two groups are United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) and Counter Extremism Project. There is nothing subtle here. These groups -- and Kaplan himself -- promote an agenda of great disparagement of Muslims in general and of Iran in particular.

Kaplan blamed Iran for the creation of ISIS, for it was Iran -- Kaplan said -- that "used a terrible Sunni movement" to expand its reach from "Persia to the Mediterranean." Such absurdity followed from a fundamental misreading of Shia concepts such as taqiya, which means prudence and not -- as Kaplan and others argue -- deceit. Kaplan, bizarrely, shares more with ISIS than Iran does with that group -- since both Kaplan and ISIS are driven by their hatred of those who follow the Shia traditions of Islam.

It is fitting that Kaplan's anti-Iran groups bring together the CIA and money. The head of UANI is Mark Wallace, who is the chief executive of Kaplan's Tigris Financial Group, a financial firm with investments -- which it admits -- would benefit from "instability in the Middle East." Working with UANI and the Counter Extremism Project is Norman Roule, a former national intelligence manager for Iran in the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

Roule has offered his support to the efforts of the Arabia Foundation, run by Ali Shihabi -- a man with close links to the Saudi monarchy. The Arabia Foundation was set up to do more effective public relations work for the Saudis than the Saudi diplomats are capable of doing. Shihabi is the son of one of Saudi Arabia's most well-regarded diplomats, Samir al-Shihabi, who played an important role as Saudi Arabia's ambassador to Pakistan during the war that created al-Qaeda.

These men -- Kaplan and Bolton, D'Andrea and Shihabi -- are eager to use the full force of the U.S. military to further the dangerous goals of the Gulf Arab royals (of both Saudi Arabia and of the UAE). When Pompeo walked before cameras, he carried their water for them. These are men on a mission. They want war against Iran.

Evidence, reason. None of this is important to them. They will not stop until the U.S. bombers deposit their deadly payload on Tehran and Qom, Isfahan and Shiraz. They will do anything to make that our terrible reality.

This article was produced by Globetrotter , a project of the Independent Media Institute.

[Jun 29, 2019] EU Busts Iran Sanctions. Dollar No Longer Reserve for Oil Trades caucus99percent

Notable quotes:
"... India pays Iran for oil in gold. Europe would be smart to convert to the Yuan/gold convertible bond as a trading currency to use with Iran, and hold reserves in that. It's redeemable for gold at many settlement banks around the world. It was designed as a trading currency to use outside the SWIFT system. All the groundwork was painstakingly laid just for this purpose. ..."
"... Food for oil. What an insult. Europe wants it both ways. They should grow up and start leading the world instead of hiding behind Uncle Sams petticoat. ..."
"... Iran's main demand in talks aimed at saving its nuclear deal is to be able to sell its oil at the same levels that it did before Washington withdrew from the accord a year ago, an Iranian official said on Thursday. ... ..."
"... Trump is a bull in a china shop. Someone will have to pick up the pieces and it won't be the one percent. YOU and I are expendable. ..."
"... Iran's main demand in talks aimed at saving its nuclear deal is to be able to sell its oil at the same levels that it did before Washington withdrew from the accord a year ago, an Iranian official said on Thursday. ... ..."
"... Senior officials from Iran and the deal's remaining parties will meet in Vienna on Friday with the aim of saving the agreement. But with European powers limited in their ability to shield Iran's economy from U.S. sanctions it is unclear what they can do to provide the large economic windfall Tehran wants. ..."
Jun 28, 2019 | caucus99percent.com

leveymg on Fri, 06/28/2019 - 4:41pm In a surprise move, the EU special purpose vehicle for trade with Iran (INSTEX) exercised its first trade today. The body was set up to facilitate exports of Iranian oil without U.S. dollars, avoiding a sanctions regime imposed unilaterally by the U.S.

Instex is now operational despite U.S. threats to European banks and officials of reprisal sanctions if they violated Iran sanctions.

Bloomberg had reported on May 7 the Treasury Department's undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, Sigal Mandelker, issued a warning letter that Instex and anyone associated with it could be barred from the U.S. financial system if it goes into effect.

In defiance of U.S. pressure, Instex was set up by EU diplomats in January as a means to prevent total collapse of the Iranian nuclear deal, officially called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The first official trades occurred today, in the shadow of the Group of 20 Summit meeting. https://www.thenational.ae/world/europe/eu-claims-iran-deal-held-togethe...

A senior EU diplomat has said the first transactions were being made by a special purpose vehicle for trade with Iran at a meeting of the remaining members of the 2015 nuclear deal in Vienna.

Friday's meeting in Vienna featured "constructive discussions," Helga Schmid, the head of the EU diplomatic service said, confirming the entity, named Instex, was making its first transactions.

"INSTEX now operational, first transactions being processed and more EU Members States to join. Good progress on Arak and Fordow [fuel enrichment] projects," she posted.

The Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (Instex) is designed to facilitate trade of essential goods, such as food and medicine, mainly from the EU to Iran. A Chinese official said Beijing was open to using the facility.

The platform has been set up in France, with a German managing director in a coordinated European effort to counterbalance the US economic power displayed by its sanctions policy.

President Donald Trump last year pulled out of the Iranian nuclear deal, officially called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which curbed Iran's nuclear activities in return for the lifting of sanctions.

According to today's report:

As the talks kicked off on Friday, seven EU nations expressed support for Instex and the JCPOA, asking Iran "to abide by and fully respect the terms and provisions of the nuclear agreement".

"We are working with France, Germany and the United Kingdom, as well as with the European External Action Service and the European Commission, to establish channels to facilitate legitimate trade and financial operations with Iran, one of the foremost of these initiatives being the establishment of Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges," read the statement from Austria, Belgium, Finland, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden.

Whether the declaration of support and first tranche of transactions will be enough to keep Iran committed to the 2015 nuclear deal is still in question.

leveymg on Fri, 06/28/2019 - 6:07pm
Here's more on how INSTEX works free from Dollar exchange

@Linda Wood

While major US media have so far ignored the story (anyone here surprised?), Deutsch Weldt (DW) confirms the report that INSTEX started operations today. https://www.dw.com/en/eu-mechanism-for-trade-with-iran-now-operational/a...

A linked background article explains how the special exchange will bypass U.S. sanctions and the U.S. currency controls over oil exports to Europe: https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-eu-taking-a-stand-through-legal-trading-wi...

Crucial for INSTEX's success will be whether participating states also develop mechanisms for European companies and their employees that protect them from the expected American sanctions and compensate for any damages incurred. The legislative instrument for this exists: The EU's blocking statute. It just needs to be updated to meet the new requirements.

Read more: US welcomes German firms' compliance on Iran sanctions

International transactions independent of the dollar

The knowledge and experience gained in the process could later be transferred to other areas, such as European initiatives in international monetary transactions. This expertise could then come in handy for establishing payment channels independent of the American financial system and the dollar, which the US also uses as a lever in its sanctions policy.

Two pieces of good news in two days, Tulsi Gabbard winning acknowledgement and respect in the debate, and this encouraging sign from Europe. A person could almost get used to thinking common sense is gaining ground. Thank you, leveymg, for posting this.

wendy davis on Fri, 06/28/2019 - 6:36pm
thanks for bringing

this news. earlier today (yesterday?) i'd grabbed this link at RT.com that includes this baffling part toward the end, with zero citation, i'll add:

"However, the EU's efforts to set up the long-promised payment channel have not satisfied Tehran. Earlier this week, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Seyed Abbas Moussavi called INSTEX a " faux thing of no practical use ," according to Iranian media.

He later said that if this turns out to be the case, the Islamic Republic will not accept it and may change its commitments under the nuclear deal that Brussels is trying to hold on to."

i do remember tehran had complained earlier (as the EU dithered) that it wasn't operational, and when it was so, it would mainly be for medicines and...food (?)

leveymg on Fri, 06/28/2019 - 9:50pm
If this is another Oil for Food thing, it's a nonstarter.

@wendy davis

Right now, it's unclear which way this is going to go. If Europe bows to American power, again, it will turn out very badly for everyone. Iraq times ten.

this news. earlier today (yesterday?) i'd grabbed this link at RT.com that includes this baffling part toward the end, with zero citation, i'll add:

"However, the EU's efforts to set up the long-promised payment channel have not satisfied Tehran. Earlier this week, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Seyed Abbas Moussavi called INSTEX a " faux thing of no practical use ," according to Iranian media.

He later said that if this turns out to be the case, the Islamic Republic will not accept it and may change its commitments under the nuclear deal that Brussels is trying to hold on to."

i do remember tehran had complained earlier (as the EU dithered) that it wasn't operational, and when it was so, it would mainly be for medicines and...food (?)

Pluto's Republic on Sat, 06/29/2019 - 2:25am
India has been trading with Iran

@wendy davis

...just fine. India pays Iran for oil in gold. Europe would be smart to convert to the Yuan/gold convertible bond as a trading currency to use with Iran, and hold reserves in that. It's redeemable for gold at many settlement banks around the world. It was designed as a trading currency to use outside the SWIFT system. All the groundwork was painstakingly laid just for this purpose.

Food for oil. What an insult. Europe wants it both ways. They should grow up and start leading the world instead of hiding behind Uncle Sams petticoat.

[edited to correct]

this news. earlier today (yesterday?) i'd grabbed this link at RT.com that includes this baffling part toward the end, with zero citation, i'll add:

"However, the EU's efforts to set up the long-promised payment channel have not satisfied Tehran. Earlier this week, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Seyed Abbas Moussavi called INSTEX a " faux thing of no practical use ," according to Iranian media.

He later said that if this turns out to be the case, the Islamic Republic will not accept it and may change its commitments under the nuclear deal that Brussels is trying to hold on to."

i do remember tehran had complained earlier (as the EU dithered) that it wasn't operational, and when it was so, it would mainly be for medicines and...food (?)

joe shikspack on Fri, 06/28/2019 - 9:20pm
this is excellent news ...

i'll throw in this bit that i read today which i think might make this a breakthrough:

'We only want to sell our oil,' Iran official says before nuclear talks

Iran's main demand in talks aimed at saving its nuclear deal is to be able to sell its oil at the same levels that it did before Washington withdrew from the accord a year ago, an Iranian official said on Thursday. ...

Senior officials from Iran and the deal's remaining parties will meet in Vienna on Friday with the aim of saving the agreement. But with European powers limited in their ability to shield Iran's economy from U.S. sanctions it is unclear what they can do to provide the large economic windfall Tehran wants.

"What is our demand? Our demand is to be able to sell our oil and get the money back. And this is in fact the minimum of our benefit from the deal," the official told reporters on condition of anonymity. "We are not asking Europeans to invest in Iran... We only want to sell our oil."

The Voice In th... on Fri, 06/28/2019 - 10:15pm
Be careful what you wish for.

@joe shikspack
Doing all oil business in dollars is the only thing holding up the dollar.

Trump is a bull in a china shop. Someone will have to pick up the pieces and it won't be the one percent. YOU and I are expendable.

i'll throw in this bit that i read today which i think might make this a breakthrough:

'We only want to sell our oil,' Iran official says before nuclear talks

Iran's main demand in talks aimed at saving its nuclear deal is to be able to sell its oil at the same levels that it did before Washington withdrew from the accord a year ago, an Iranian official said on Thursday. ...

Senior officials from Iran and the deal's remaining parties will meet in Vienna on Friday with the aim of saving the agreement. But with European powers limited in their ability to shield Iran's economy from U.S. sanctions it is unclear what they can do to provide the large economic windfall Tehran wants.

"What is our demand? Our demand is to be able to sell our oil and get the money back. And this is in fact the minimum of our benefit from the deal," the official told reporters on condition of anonymity. "We are not asking Europeans to invest in Iran... We only want to sell our oil."

[Jun 27, 2019] Immediate spike in oil prices and derivatives market after attack in Iran can unpredictable consequences for the US and world economy

Notable quotes:
"... Despite the blathering about "international waters" and "freedom of navigation" the facts are that the Straits of Hormuz are only 21 miles wide. So all the water in them is either in Iranian territory to the north or Omani to the south. They would be entirely within their rights, as elucidated in the International Law of the Sea, to close the straits after some sort of military strike against them (for what that is worth, which is something at least as far as public opinion outside of the U.S. is concerned). The Iranians have stated that if and when they close the straits they will announce it publicly, no subterfuge or secret operations will be involved. ..."
"... Anything over $150 a barrel would trigger an economic, industrial, and financial crisis of immense proportions around the world ..."
"... The amount of derivatives that are swirling about the planet and that are traded and created constantly is estimated to be from $1.2 - $2.5 Quadrillion. That's right from $1,200 - $2,500 Trillion or $1,200,000 - $2,500,000 Billion {remember Illinois Senator Everett Dirksen, who once said "a billion here and a billion there and first thing you know, You're talking BIG MONEY!!} ..."
"... Just like during the 2007 - 2008 crisis the various elements of shadow banking, and speculation would collapse. Remember that total world production of and trade in actual products is only about about $70 - $80 Trillion, or perhaps less than 1/31st the size of the Global Derivatives markets. ..."
Jun 27, 2019 | www.wsws.org

dmorista3 days ago • edited

The official story, as usual, is a bunch of hooey. Trump wouldn't bat an eye over the death of 150 Iranians. In addition to the worries about losing an aircraft carrier: the military high command probably let him know that the much vaunted, and outlandishly expensive, force of F-35s, will quickly lose its effectiveness if exposed to probing by the high tech radars the Russians have developed, and that are used in conjunction with at least the S-400 antiaircraft and antimissile defense system.

So the question is, if the stealth advantage of the F-35 is only good for a limited time, is this particular geostrategic confrontation worth using up that particular asset??

Then there is the whole question of whether the Iranians would close the Straits of Hormuz in response to a major air raid on their nuclear facilities; this leads to some much more important issues.

Despite the blathering about "international waters" and "freedom of navigation" the facts are that the Straits of Hormuz are only 21 miles wide. So all the water in them is either in Iranian territory to the north or Omani to the south. They would be entirely within their rights, as elucidated in the International Law of the Sea, to close the straits after some sort of military strike against them (for what that is worth, which is something at least as far as public opinion outside of the U.S. is concerned). The Iranians have stated that if and when they close the straits they will announce it publicly, no subterfuge or secret operations will be involved.

Since nearly 30% of the World's oil moves through those straits cutting them off will cause an immediate spike in oil prices. Prices of $100 - $300 a barrel would be reached within a few days. If the Straits of Hormuz were closed for a longer period we could easily see prices rise to $1,000 a barrel according to Goldman Sachs projections (see Escobar article cited below).

Anything over $150 a barrel would trigger an economic, industrial, and financial crisis of immense proportions around the world . The financial and speculative house of cards, that the ruling classes of the U.S.-led Finance Capital Bloc depends on for their dominance of world capital and markets, would likely come tumbling down.

The amount of derivatives that are swirling about the planet and that are traded and created constantly is estimated to be from $1.2 - $2.5 Quadrillion. That's right from $1,200 - $2,500 Trillion or $1,200,000 - $2,500,000 Billion {remember Illinois Senator Everett Dirksen, who once said "a billion here and a billion there and first thing you know, You're talking BIG MONEY!!} (See "World Derivatives Market Estimated As Big As $1.2 Quadrillion Notional, as Banks Fight Efforts to Rein It In", March 26, 2013, Yves Smith, "Naked Capitalism", at < https://www.nakedcapitalism... >, and "Iran Goes for 'Maximum Counter-pressure' ", June 21, 2019, Pepe Escobar, "Strategic Culture Foundation", at < https://www.strategic-cultu... >, and "Global Derivatives: $1.5 Quadrillion Time Bomb", Aug 24, 2015, Stephen Lendman, Global Research, at < https://www.globalresearch.... >).

Just like during the 2007 - 2008 crisis the various elements of shadow banking, and speculation would collapse. Remember that total world production of and trade in actual products is only about about $70 - $80 Trillion, or perhaps less than 1/31st the size of the Global Derivatives markets.

All the world's elite capitalists, be they Western or Asian or from elsewhere, maintain homes in numerous places. One reason for this is so they have somewhere to go, if they need to flee from environmental and/or socioeconomic disaster and the resultant chaos in their primary place of residence. As we move ever deeper into this extremely severe and ongoing Crisis of Capitalism, these issues will continue to become more acute.

So we can rest assured that; in addition to the crazed war-mongers Bolton and Pompeo (and their supporters and backers) whispering in Trump's ear to "go ahead and attack the Iranians"; and in addition to the somewhat more sober counsel of General Dunford and other members of the top military command; that titans of finance capital were undoubtedly on the phone warning "Bone-Spur Don" that his digs in Manhattan and Florida might not be entirely safe if the worst were to happen in response to a military strike. The absurd story of Don worrying about 150 Iranians is so ludicrous that it did not even pass the smell test with the corporate controlled media for very long.

Irandle dmorista2 days ago
Oil reached $147 a barrel in 2007-08. That caused the so-called Great Recession.

As WSWS has pointed out there are few if any US options left but war.

[Jun 27, 2019] The West's Trumped-Up Hatred of Iran Serves The Zionist Dream of a Greater Israel Dominating the Middle East by Stuart Littlewood

Notable quotes:
"... Any US attack on Iran in these circumstances could be a violation of the United Nations Charter, which only allows the use of military force in self-defense after an armed attack or with Security Council approval. ..."
"... UN Security Council resolution 487 of 1981 called on Israel "urgently to place its nuclear facilities under IAEA safeguards". Israel has been allowed to ignore it for nearly 40 years. In 2009, the IAEA called on Israel to join the Non-Proliferation Treaty, open its nuclear facilities to inspection and place them under comprehensive IAEA safeguards. Israel still refuses to join or allow inspections. ..."
"... When the CIA-engineered coup toppled Dr. Mossadeq, reinstated the Shah and his secret police, and let the American oil companies in, it was the final straw for the Iranians. The British-American conspiracy backfired spectacularly 25 years later with the Islamic Revolution of 1978-9, the humiliating 444-day hostage crisis in the American embassy and a tragically botched rescue mission. What should have been a sharp lesson for Western meddlers became a festering sore. ..."
Jun 27, 2019 | ahtribune.com

Any US attack on Iran in these circumstances could be a violation of the United Nations Charter, which only allows the use of military force in self-defense after an armed attack or with Security Council approval.

Let's remind ourselves of earlier US aggression and dishonesty during the Iran-Iraq war, as recorded in Wikipedia:

In the course of escorts by the US Navy, the cruiser USS Vincennes shot down Iran Air Flight 655 on 3 July 1988, killing all 290 passengers and crew on board. The American government claimed that Vincennes was in international waters at the time (which was later proven to be untrue), that the Airbus A300 had been mistaken for an Iranian F-14 Tomcat, and that Vincennes feared that she was under attack. The Iranians maintain that Vincennes was in their own waters, and that the passenger jet was turning away and increasing altitude after take-off. US Admiral William J. Crowe later admitted on Nightline that Vincennes was in Iranian territorial waters when it launched the missiles. At the time of the attack, Admiral Crowe claimed that the Iranian plane did not identify itself and sent no response to warning signals he had sent. In 1996, the United States expressed their regret for the event and the civilian deaths it caused.

Trump now wants to impose further crippling sanctions on Iran and her people while the UK's Foreign Office minister Andrew Murrison has just been to Tehran calling for "urgent de-escalation" and cheekily criticising Iran's "regional conduct" and its threat to stop complying with the nuclear deal, which the US recklessly abandoned but the UK remains committed to.

Good news about Murrison, though. A medical man, he voted against the Iraq war but as a Navy reservist was called up to do a 6 month tour of duty there. Perhaps Murrison should go see Trump and ask:

Trump meanwhile has signed an executive order targeting Iran's leadership with hard-hitting new sanctions supposedly needed to deny their development of nuclear weapons. "Never can Iran have a nuclear weapon," Trump has decreed. He added: "We will continue to increased pressure on Tehran until the regime abandons its dangerous activities and its asperations, including the pursuit of nuclear weapons, increased enrichment of uranium, development of ballistic missiles, engagement and support for terrorism, fuelling of foreign conflicts and belligerent acts...." Achingly funny. Who else could all that apply to, I wonder? Exactly. The Bully-Boy-in-chief himself and his best buddies in Tel Aviv.

Sowing the seeds of hatred

We have conveniently short memories when it comes to our abominable conduct towards the Iranians in 1951-53 when a previous Conservative government, in cahoots with the USA, snuffed out Iran's fledgling democracy and reinstated a cruel dictator, the Shah. This eventually brought about the Islamic Revolution of 1979 and created the deep distrust between Iran and the West. Is it not shameful that the present Conservative government is spoiling for another fight? Shouldn't the Foreign Office now focus on exerting influence through trade and co-operation?

The Iranian regime, like many others, may not be entirely to our liking but nor was Dr Mossadeq's democracy 65 years ago. Besides, what threat is Iran to Britain? And why are we allowing ourselves to be driven by America's mindless hatred?

When new recruits join British Petroleum (BP) they are fed romantic tales about how the company came into being. William Knox D'Arcy, a Devon man, studied law and made a fortune from the Mount Morgan gold-mining operations in 1880s Australia. Returning to England he agreed to fund a search for oil and minerals in Persia and began negotiations with the Mozaffar al-Din Shah Qajar in 1901. A sixty year concession gave D'Arcy the oil rights to the entire country except for five provinces in the north. The Persian government would receive 16% of the oil company's annual profits.

Mozzafar ad-Din was naive in business matters and unprepared for kingship when the time came. He borrowed heavily from the Russians and in order to pay off the debt he signed away control of many Persian industries and markets to foreigners. The deal D'Arcy cut was too sharp by far and would eventually lead to trouble.

He sent an exploration team headed by geologist George B Reynolds. In 1903 a company was formed and D'Arcy had to spend much of his fortune to cover the costs. Further financial support came from Glasgow-based Burmah Oil in return for a large share of the stock.

Drilling in southern Persia at Shardin continued until 1907 when the search was switched to Masjid-i-Souleiman. By 1908 D'Arcy was almost bankrupt. Reynolds received a last-chance instruction: "Drill to 1,600 feet and give up". On 26 May at 1,180 feet he struck oil.

It was indeed a triumph of guts and determination. The Anglo-Persian Oil Company was soon up and running and in 1911 completed a pipeline from the oilfield to its new refinery at Abadan. But the company was in trouble again by 1914. The golden age of motoring hadn't yet arrived and the industrial oil markets were sewn up by American and European interests. The sulphurous stench of the Persian oil, even after refining, ruled it out for domestic use, so D'Arcy had a marketing problem.

Luckily Winston Churchill, then First Lord of the Admiralty, was an enthusiast for oil and wanted to convert the British fleet from coal especially now that a reliable oil source was secured. He famously told Parliament: "Look out upon the wide expanse of the oil regions of the world!" Only the British-owned Anglo-Persian Oil Company, he said, could protect British interests. His resolution passed and the British Government took a major shareholding in the company just in time, for World War One began a few weeks later.

During the war the British government seized the assets of a German company calling itself British Petroleum for the purpose of marketing its products in Britain. Anglo-Persian acquired the assets from the Public Trustee complete with a ready-made distribution network and an abundance of depots, railway tank wagons, road vehicles, barges and so forth. This enabled Anglo-Persian to rapidly expand sales in petroleum-hungry Britain and Europe after the war.

In the inter-war years Anglo-Persian profited handsomely from paying the Iranians a miserly 16%, and an increasingly angry Persia tried to renegotiate terms. Getting nowhere, they cancelled the D'Arcy agreement and the matter ended up at the Court of International Justice at The Hague. A new agreement in 1933 provided Anglo-Persian with a fresh 60-year concession but on a smaller area. The terms were an improvement for the Persians but still didn't amount to a square deal.

In 1935 Iran formally replaced Persia as the country's official name internationally and Anglo-Persian changed to Anglo-Iranian Oil Company. By 1950 Abadan was the biggest oil refinery in the world and Britain, with its 51% holding, had affectively colonised part of southern Iran.

Iran's small share of the profits became a big issue and so did the treatment of its oil workers. 6,000 withdrew their labour in 1946 and the strike was violently put down with 200 dead or injured. In 1951 Anglo-Iranian declared £40 million profit after tax but handed Iran only £7 million. Meanwhile Arabian American Oil was sharing profits with the Saudis on a 50/50 basis. Calls for nationalisation were mounting.

As a result of the Persian Constitutional Revolution the first Majlis (parliament) was established in 1906 and the country became a constitutional monarchy with high hopes. By mid-century Iran not unreasonably wanted economic and political independence and an end to poverty. In March 1951 its Majlis and Senate voted to nationalise Anglo-Iranian, which had controlled Iran's oil industry since 1913 under terms disadvantageous to Iran. Respected social reformer Dr Mohammad Mossadeq was named prime minister the following month by a 79 to 12 majority. On 1 May Mossadeq carried out his government's wishes, cancelling Anglo-Iranian's oil concession due to expire in 1993 and expropriating its assets.

His explanation, given in a speech in June 1951 (M. Fateh, Panjah Sal-e Naft-e Iran , p. 525), ran as follows...

"Our long years of negotiations with foreign countries have yielded no results this far. With the oil revenues we could meet our entire budget and combat poverty, disease, and backwardness among our people. Another important consideration is that by the elimination of the power of the British company, we would also eliminate corruption and intrigue, by means of which the internal affairs of our country have been influenced. Once this tutelage has ceased, Iran will have achieved its economic and political independence.

"The Iranian state prefers to take over the production of petroleum itself. The company should do nothing else but return its property to the rightful owners. The nationalization law provides that 25% of the net profits on oil be set aside to meet all the legitimate claims of the company for compensation It has been asserted abroad that Iran intends to expel the foreign oil experts from the country and then shut down oil installations. Not only is this allegation absurd; it is utter invention "

For this he would eventually be removed in a coup by MI5 and the CIA, imprisoned for 3 years then put under house arrest until his death.

Britain, with regime change in mind, orchestrated a world-wide boycott of Iranian oil, froze Iran's sterling assets and threatened legal action against anyone purchasing oil produced in the formerly British-controlled refineries. It even considered invading. The Iranian economy was soon in ruins.... sounds familiar, doesn't it? Attempts by the Shah to replace Mossadeq failed and he returned with more power, but his coalition was slowly crumbling under the hardships imposed by the British blockade.

At first America was reluctant to join Britain's destructive game but Churchill let it be known that Mossadeq was turning communist and pushing Iran into Russia's arms at a time when Cold War anxiety was high. It was enough to bring America's new president, Eisenhower, on board and plotting with Britain to bring Mossadeq down.

Chief of the CIA's Near East and Africa division, Kermit Roosevelt Jr, arrived to play the leading role in an ugly game of provocation, mayhem and deception. An elaborate campaign of disinformation began, and the Shah signed two decrees, one dismissing Mossadeq and the other nominating the CIA's choice, General Fazlollah Zahedi, as prime minister. These decrees were written as dictated by Donald Wilbur the CIA architect of the plan

The Shah fled to Rome. When it was judged safe to do so he returned on 22 August 1953. Mossadeq was arrested, tried, and convicted of treason by the Shah's military court. He remarked

"My greatest sin is that I nationalised Iran's oil industry and discarded the system of political and economic exploitation by the world's greatest empire With God's blessing and the will of the people, I fought this savage and dreadful system of international espionage and colonialism.

"I am well aware that my fate must serve as an example in the future throughout the Middle East in breaking the chains of slavery and servitude to colonial interests ."

His supporters were rounded up, imprisoned, tortured or executed. Zahedi's new government soon reached an agreement with foreign oil companies to form a consortium to restore the flow of Iranian oil, awarding the US and Great Britain the lion's share - 40% going to Anglo-Iranian. The consortium agreed to split profits on a 50-50 basis with Iran but, tricky as ever, refused to open its books to Iranian auditors or allow Iranians to sit on the board.

A grateful US massively funded the Shah's government, including his army and secret police force, SAVAK. Anglo-Iranian changed its name to British Petroleum in 1954. Mossadeq died on 5 March 1967.

Apologise? Hell no Let's demonise Iran!

But the West's fun came to an abrupt halt with the Islamic Revolution of 1979 and a great British enterprise that started heroically and turned nasty ended in tears.

The US is still hated today for reimposing the Shah and his thugs and demolishing the Iranians' democratic system of government, which the Revolution unfortunately didn't restore. The US is widely known by Iranians as Big Satan and its regional handmaiden Israel rejoices in the name Little Satan . Britain, as the instigator and junior partner in the sordid affair, is similarly despised.

Moreover, Iran harbours great resentment at the way the West, especially the US, helped Iraq develop its armed forces and chemical weapons arsenal, and how the international community failed to punish Iraq for its use of those weapons against Iran in the Iran-Iraq war. The US, and eventually Britain, leaned strongly towards Saddam in that conflict and the alliance enabled Saddam to more easily acquire or develop forbidden chemical and biological weapons. At least 100,000 Iranians fell victim to them.

This is how John King writing in 2003 summed it up

"The United States used methods both legal and illegal to help build Saddam's army into the most powerful army in the Mideast outside of Israel. The US supplied chemical and biological agents and technology to Iraq when it knew Iraq was using chemical weapons against the Iranians. The US supplied the materials and technology for these weapons of mass destruction to Iraq at a time when it was know that Saddam was using this technology to kill his Kurdish citizens. The United States supplied intelligence and battle planning information to Iraq when those battle plans included the use of cyanide, mustard gas and nerve agents. The United States blocked UN censure of Iraq's use of chemical weapons. The United States did not act alone in this effort. The Soviet Union was the largest weapons supplier, but England, France and Germany were also involved in the shipment of arms and technology."

While Iranian casualties were at their highest as a result of US chemical and biological war crimes Trump was busy acquiring the Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Trump Castle , his Taj-Mahal casino, the Plaza Hotel in Manhattan and was refitting his super-yacht Trump Princess . What does he know, understand or care about Iran?

On the British side Foreign Secretary Jaremy Hunt was messing about at Oxford University; and the front-runner to fill our Prime Minister vacancy, Boris Johnson, former Foreign Secretary, was similarly at Oxford carousing with fellow Old Etonians at the Bullingdon Club. What do they know or care?

Which brings us to today Why are we hearing nonstop sabre-rattling against Iran when we should be extending the hand of reconciliation and friendship? And why are these clueless leaders demonising Iran instead of righting the wrongs? Because the political establishment is still smarting. And they are the new-generation imperialists, the political spawn of those Dr Mossadeq and many others struggled against. They haven't learned from the past, and they won't lift their eyes to a better future.

It's so depressing.

Economic sanctions: are they moral, or even legal?

The US and UK have led the charge on oil sanctions and other measures to make life hell for Iranians. But are they on safe legal ground?

The International Association of Democratic Lawyers (IADL) in a statement on 26 November 2011, said they were deeply concerned about the threats against Iran by Israel, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Referring to a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency, IADL stated that those threats were unacceptable and dangerous not only for all the region but for the whole of humanity, and that Article 2.4 of the UN Charter forbids not only use of force but also the threat of force in international relations. The right of defence does not include pre-emptive strikes.

The IADL also pointed out that while Israel was quick to denounce the possible possession of nuclear weapons by others, it had illegally possessed nuclear weapons for many years. The danger to world peace was so great as to require the global eradication of all nuclear weapons, and to immediately declare the Middle East a nuclear free zone and a zone free of all weapons of mass destruction, as required by UN Security Council resolution 687.

Furthermore, Article 33 states that "the parties to any dispute, the continuance of which is likely to endanger the maintenance of international peace and security, shall, first of all, seek a solution by negotiation, enquiry, mediation, conciliation, arbitration, judicial settlement, resort to regional agencies or arrangements, or other peaceful means..." Economic 'terror' tactics such as the vicious sanctions deployed by the US, UK and their allies – and the similar measures used by Britain and America in the 1950s to bring down the government of Dr Mossadeq and reinstate the Shah – are simply not part of the approved toolkit.

Remember the context

UN Security Council resolution 487 of 1981 called on Israel "urgently to place its nuclear facilities under IAEA safeguards". Israel has been allowed to ignore it for nearly 40 years. In 2009, the IAEA called on Israel to join the Non-Proliferation Treaty, open its nuclear facilities to inspection and place them under comprehensive IAEA safeguards. Israel still refuses to join or allow inspections.

The Zionist regime is reckoned by some to have up to 400 nuclear warheads at its disposal. It is the only state in the region that is not a party to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (Iran is). It has signed but not ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. As regards biological and chemical weapons, Israel has not signed the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention. It has signed but not ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention.

In early 2012 the US intelligence community was saying that Iran hadn't got an active nuclear weapons programme, and Israeli intelligence agreed. The Director of the National Intelligence Agency, James Clapper, reported: "We assess Iran is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons We do not know, however, if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons..."

So the continual focus on Iran has been a deliberate distraction. We repaid Iranian co-operation in D'Arcy's oil venture with corporate greed and diplomatic double-cross. America and Britain are still smarting from the time when Iran democratically elected Dr. Mossadeq, who sensibly nationalized her vast oil resources. Up till then the grasping British were raking in far more profit from Iranian oil than the Iranians themselves.

Back in the 1920s the US State Department had described the oil deposits in the Middle East as "a stupendous source of strategic power, and one of the greatest material prizes in world history". Ever since, its designs on Iraq and Iran have been plain to see and it is still ready to pounce on every opportunity.

When the CIA-engineered coup toppled Dr. Mossadeq, reinstated the Shah and his secret police, and let the American oil companies in, it was the final straw for the Iranians. The British-American conspiracy backfired spectacularly 25 years later with the Islamic Revolution of 1978-9, the humiliating 444-day hostage crisis in the American embassy and a tragically botched rescue mission. What should have been a sharp lesson for Western meddlers became a festering sore.

The quest for the energy prize is not over. But it is no longer just about oil. Zionist stooges in controlling positions in the West's corridors of power are pledged to ensure Israel remains the only nuclear power in the Middle East and continues to dominate the region militarily. And they are willing to spill Christian blood and spend Christian treasure in that cause.

US National Security Adviser John Bolton, recipient of the Defender of Israel Award last year and the Guardian of Zion Award the year before, is one such super-stooge. His stupefying remark: "No-one has granted Iran a hunting licence in the Middle East" typifies the arrogance of his ilk.

Stuart Littlewood worked on jet fighters in the RAF. Various sales and marketing management positions in manufacturing, oil and electronics. Senior associate with several industrial marketing consultancies. Graduate Member of the Chartered Institute of Marketing (MInstM). BA Hons Psychology, University of Exeter.

[Jun 27, 2019] The USA considered Iran to be the weak-link in BRI/Eurasian integration

Notable quotes:
"... I'm going to go against the grain of the belt and road initiative theory above, and I admit the US is often hostile to Chinese relations with Europe, especially infrastructure. That might be so because the US hopes to compete in that market, just as to control eurasian access would give it a hegemonic position in new trade through the region. So I think that it is not aimed at stopping that initiative, it is about finding ways to control it. ..."
"... I think that the amplification of differences between Iran and US is an antagonism not viewable by the US public as other than part of either longstanding differences or due to US policy error, but I think that it should be considered that this confrontation is actually being framed up to place the US frontline, something the US itself maybe unwittingly invites by its own rhetoric and posturing of dominance. ..."
"... If the above is the true scenario, then I see little room for de-escalation left. ..."
"... Mental retarded is one form of mental disability. This isn't quite the whopper as "wiping Israel off the map " was. I do expect to see limited strikes against Iran within the next week. Predictions are usually wrong though as events are increasingly unpredictable. I sometimes think that the simple act of predicting something which is actually planned can cause the plan to change. Kind of like Quantum physics where observation of a quantum wave can change its quantum state. Observation alters reality. ..."
"... Trump needs Adelson's continued financial support to get reelected, and he wants a ROI, so I think something happens. Big or small? I expect a limited strike, at least I hope so. Something Iran can ignore at least cause only a token retaliation to save face and not cause escalation. ..."
"... TEHRAN – The Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday that U.S. officials' claims seeking negotiations with Tehran is an act of "deception," saying such an offer is merely aimed at disarming the Iranian nation of its "elements of power." ..."
"... "Having failed to achieve its goal through pressure, the enemy is coming forward with an offer of talks, while assuming the Iranian nation is simple-minded," the Leader said, according to a Press TV report of his statements. ..."
"... Thanks for posting that link to the ProPublica investigation of the 2016 incident when Iran captured the US sailors in its waters. The whole story is quite large and I haven't finished it yet, but already it paints a very disturbing picture of the US Navy. ..."
Jun 26, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

karlof1 , Jun 26, 2019 2:18:59 PM | 25

Language isn't a problem as Pepe Escobar reports on The Big Picture on the cusp of the G-20, which revolves round what appears to be the sold front posed by RIC--Russia, India, China. A tidbit:

"What matters is that the Xi-Modi bilateral at the SCO was so auspicious that Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale was led to describe it as "the beginning of a process, after the formation of government in India, to now deal with India-China relations from both sides in a larger context of the 21st century and of our role in the Asia-Pacific region." There will be an informal Xi-Modi summit in India in October. And they meet again at the BRICS summit in Brazil in November."

Clearly when the Big Picture's considered--as it ought to always--Iran's seen as the weak-link in BRI/Eurasian integration by Outlaw US Empire planners, which is the actual target beyond Iran. Given the number of nations climbing onboard the BRI Train, Trump won't get many nations aboard his coalition. Aside from Saudi, UAE, Occupied Palestine, and UK, how many nations have swallowed TrumpCo's lie that Iran's responsible for the current crisis? Canada, Ukraine, Poland, Albania, Brazil, Netherlands, The Baltic States?

To bad there's no C-SPAN at the G-20.

gzon , Jun 26, 2019 3:38:47 PM | 38

I'm going to go against the grain of the belt and road initiative theory above, and I admit the US is often hostile to Chinese relations with Europe, especially infrastructure. That might be so because the US hopes to compete in that market, just as to control eurasian access would give it a hegemonic position in new trade through the region. So I think that it is not aimed at stopping that initiative, it is about finding ways to control it.

This rubs off on Syria, which is the Mediterranean access point. To control Syria gives control of that access point, it would remove direct Russian Mediterranean access also, as well as buffer Israel. I think EU is more interested in securing the Mediterranean than any new Eurasian trade route, except for similar reasons to US in terms of control and profit. As stands I don't see EU achieving any great new trade by that route. So that ties Europe more closely with US in my opinion. If you look at relations towards Russia, say Cyprus or Ukraine or sanctions, they do not demonstrate a great friendship or trust, just a balance of power and certain understandings.

I think that the amplification of differences between Iran and US is an antagonism not viewable by the US public as other than part of either longstanding differences or due to US policy error, but I think that it should be considered that this confrontation is actually being framed up to place the US frontline, something the US itself maybe unwittingly invites by its own rhetoric and posturing of dominance.

If the above is the true scenario, then I see little room for de-escalation left. To cede at this point by US would be tantamount to giving Russia, China and Iran hegemony of the region, and I just don't think that is on the books, I don't think China or Russia will be able to provide the reassurance western or US allied nations or states would accept. For the US the main state it would not abandon would be Israel, but I don't think the US would just give up the hegemony that it still has in the region just like that either.

karlof1 , Jun 26, 2019 4:53:16 PM | 46
gzon @35--

"... [F]inding ways to control it" differs little from "stopping that initiative," particularly within the context of the stated #1 policy goal of the Outlaw US Empire--Full Spectrum Domination. (Oh, and welcome to the forum.)

Pardon me for asking a few questions. First, have you read the White Paper (doc format) issued by China's Politburo explaining to the Outlaw US Empire why it ceased trade negotiations and set forth its conditions for their resumption? Second, Have you read Michael Hudson's short appraisal of that paper as it integrates with his analysis of the overall Outlaw US Empire project?

Lastly, please elaborate on what you mean here: "... I don't think China or Russia will be able to provide the reassurance western or US allied nations or states would accept." I look forward to your reply.

Pft , Jun 26, 2019 5:01:06 PM | 47
Mental retarded is one form of mental disability. This isn't quite the whopper as "wiping Israel off the map " was. I do expect to see limited strikes against Iran within the next week. Predictions are usually wrong though as events are increasingly unpredictable. I sometimes think that the simple act of predicting something which is actually planned can cause the plan to change. Kind of like Quantum physics where observation of a quantum wave can change its quantum state. Observation alters reality.

Anyways, assuming the strikes happen what happens afterward should be interesting. As Trump said this wont include boots on the ground so it will be an air show. There is the law of unintended consequences that applies, so who can say for sure.

But Trump needs Adelson's continued financial support to get reelected, and he wants a ROI, so I think something happens. Big or small? I expect a limited strike, at least I hope so. Something Iran can ignore at least cause only a token retaliation to save face and not cause escalation.

Peter AU 1 , Jun 26, 2019 6:29:19 PM | 58
As this is the thread for insults or not...

https://ejmagnier.com/2019/06/26/iran-has-warned-to-target-arab-countries-in-case-of-war-the-us-like-a-lion-in-a-persian-story/

"The Iranian Leader Sayyed Ali Khamenei has reminded Iranian officials of what Imam Khomeini said during the US-Iran crisis in the 80s. He said: "The behaviour of the US can be compared to the story of a lion in Persian stories. Carter most probably didn't know about this story.

Although it pains me to compare Carter to a lion, the story fits him perfectly. When a Lion faces his enemy, it roars and breaks wind to scare his enemy. The lion ends by shaking his tail, hoping for a mediator. Today the US is mimicking the lion's behaviour: the shouting and the threats (roaring) don't scare us, and the US's continual announcement of new sanctions is to us just like the lion breaking wind"."

Don Bacon , Jun 26, 2019 11:30:56 PM | 103
TEHRAN – The Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday that U.S. officials' claims seeking negotiations with Tehran is an act of "deception," saying such an offer is merely aimed at disarming the Iranian nation of its "elements of power."

Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei made the remarks in response to numerous offers of negotiations recently put forward by U.S. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo amid a campaign of "maximum pressure" against Tehran.

"Having failed to achieve its goal through pressure, the enemy is coming forward with an offer of talks, while assuming the Iranian nation is simple-minded," the Leader said, according to a Press TV report of his statements.

"The Iranian nation will definitely make progress, but without you and on the condition that you don't approach it," he said to U.S. officials.. . here

Grieved , Jun 27, 2019 12:15:00 AM | 105
@79 Don Bacon

Thanks for posting that link to the ProPublica investigation of the 2016 incident when Iran captured the US sailors in its waters. The whole story is quite large and I haven't finished it yet, but already it paints a very disturbing picture of the US Navy.

The dysfunctions and failures in the hierarchies read more like an old and rigid institution than like anything one thinks of as military characteristics. I guess, then, the truth is that the US Navy is such an institution - antiquated, privileged, and beyond accountability.

I am not a fan of the US military but it still feels strangely sad to read of such decay. One hates to see degradation in anything. It explains why warships run into things as if blind, and why sailors seem impossibly incompetent. I have no doubt that the generals and admirals of the world make their appraisals of US incompetence accordingly, and probably, as professionals themselves, equally sadly.

It's off-topic but a very important article that I hope we see more discussion of in an open thread or one relating to US military. That link again, this one to the source:

Trump Keeps Talking About the Last Military Standoff With Iran -- Here's What Really Happened

In 2016, 10 sailors were captured by Iran. Trump is making it a political issue. Our investigation shows that it was a Navy failure, and the problems run deep.

by Megan Rose, Robert Faturechi, and T. Christian Miller June 24, 2:15 p.m. EDT

Don Bacon , Jun 27, 2019 12:26:52 AM | 109
@ Grieved 102
I am not a fan of the US military but it still feels strangely sad to read of such decay.
The Navy doesn't hit moving ships any longer, they've shifted to stationary ones -- alliding.

Jun 25, 2019

US warship allides with moored bulker in Montreal

A US Navy Freedom-class littoral combat ship (LCS) struck a moored commercial vessel in Montreal as it was about to sail out for its new homeport of Mayport, Florida, on Friday, June 21.
Eyewitnesses reportedly saw USS Billings, which is scheduled to be commissioned in August, allide with the moored bulk carrier Rosaire A. Desgagnes as the former departed the wharf at Montreal with an escort of tugs.
The warship was said to have lost control and ended up hitting the bulk carrier after its mooring lines were let go. . .Billings' starboard side bridge wing suffered visible minor damage. . here

Save you the trouble, allide: To impact a stationary object.
uncle tungsten , Jun 27, 2019 12:32:05 AM | 111
Thank you Don Bacon #79 I have noticed that it is almost always the Navy that f#ucks up or hoists the false flag, Gulf of Tonkin, USS Vincennes, playing chicken with enormous container carriers in the sea of Japan, perhaps even the Japanese oil tanker in early June. The list is much longer than this small excerpt.

Only last week another of USA great new destroyers clips a moored container vessel in Canada. They are a maritime menace.

Is it a psychosis or a deliberate mission by narcissistic ships commanders? Something is seriously out of control in the US Navy.

Don Bacon , Jun 27, 2019 1:10:43 AM | 114
@ ut 108
The US Navy is unfit for combat.

Navy Times, Jan 13
Worse than you thought: inside the secret Fitzgerald probe the Navy doesn't want you to read

A scathing internal Navy probe into the 2017 collision that drowned seven sailors on the guided-missile destroyer Fitzgerald details a far longer list of problems plaguing the vessel, its crew and superior commands than the service has publicly admitted.
Obtained by Navy Times, the "dual-purpose investigation" was overseen by Rear Adm. Brian Fort and submitted 41 days after the June 17, 2017, tragedy.
. . .Their report documents the routine, almost casual, violations of standing orders on a Fitz bridge that often lacked skippers and executive officers, even during potentially dangerous voyages at night through busy waterways.
When Fort walked into the trash-strewn CIC in the wake of the disaster, he was hit with the acrid smell of urine. He saw kettlebells on the deck and bottles filled with pee. Some radar controls didn't work and he soon discovered crew members who didn't know how to use them anyway.
Fort found a Voyage Management System that generated more "trouble calls" than any other key piece of electronic navigational equipment. Designed to help watchstanders navigate without paper charts, the VMS station in the skipper's quarters was broken so sailors cannibalized it for parts to help keep the rickety system working.. . here
Harry Law , Jun 27, 2019 6:37:40 AM | 121
The US attempt to destroy the Iranian economy by bringing its oil exports to zero, thereby causing untold suffering and death, is an act of war, and should be treated as such, think sanctions on Iraq causing the deaths of 500,000 children. It is impossible to expect any self respecting nation to even engage in a conversation when the US holds a gun to Iran's head. So much for the hubris of the US hegemon that they feel insulted whenever a weaker country says no, that they feel their credibility is at stake, then they double down on the threats.The US only wants vassals, such an attitude can only result in war.
Harry Law , Jun 27, 2019 6:37:40 AM | 121
The US attempt to destroy the Iranian economy by bringing its oil exports to zero, thereby causing untold suffering and death, is an act of war, and should be treated as such, think sanctions on Iraq causing the deaths of 500,000 children. It is impossible to expect any self respecting nation to even engage in a conversation when the US holds a gun to Iran's head. So much for the hubris of the US hegemon that they feel insulted whenever a weaker country says no, that they feel their credibility is at stake, then they double down on the threats.The US only wants vassals, such an attitude can only result in war.

[Jun 26, 2019] Cost of potential US war with Iran $250 oil another Afghanistan

Notable quotes:
"... Should such a war really happen, the stakes would be very high, so there is every reason to assume that Iran's missiles would not only be equipped with conventional high explosive fragmentation warheads, but would also carry toxic agents and dirty bombs. ..."
"... even a handful of Tehran's missiles reaching critical infrastructure in the Persian Gulf region would be enough to cause devastation. ..."
"... On top of that, there are more questions than answers regarding the reliability of the antimissile and air defense systems that the Persian Gulf monarchies deployed to defend their hydrocarbon terminals and other oil and gas infrastructure. ..."
"... To solve the problem of Iran once and for all, the US would need to mount a large-scale ground operation, with the US Army invading the country. America would have to wipe out both regular Iranian forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, unseat the current leadership of Iran, and have a military presence in every major city for the next 10 to 15 years, keeping tight control over the entire country at the same time. ..."
Jun 26, 2019 | www.rt.com

Iran's downing of a US military surveillance drone last week predictably led to another flare-up in tense relations between Tehran and Washington. What could be the implications of a potential conflict between the two nations? Right after the Global Hawk UAV was shot down, the New York Times reported that US President Donald Trump approved military strikes against Iran, but then changed his mind.

Let's start by saying that the decision to launch a military operation against Iran (which is what this is really about), including the specific time and place, would have to be taken by a very small group of top US political and military officials. At such meetings, no leaks could possibly occur by definition.

Now, let's take a look at some of the details. The difference between a 'strike' and an 'operation' is quite significant, at the very least in terms of duration, and forces and equipment involved. It would be nice to know if the NYT actually meant a single airstrike or an entire air operation.

Also on rt.com US lapdog Jeremy Hunt prepping British public for war with Iran, just in case Trump asks

Amusingly enough, the publication reported that the strikes were scheduled for early morning to minimize the potential death toll among the Iranian military and civilians. It's worth pointing out that the US has never cared about the number of victims either among the military personnel or the civilian population of its adversaries.

Moreover, the purpose of any military conflict is to do as much damage to your enemy as possible in terms of personnel, military hardware and other equipment. This is how the goals of any armed conflict are achieved. Of course, it would be best if civilian losses are kept to a minimum, but for the US it's more of a secondary rather than a primary objective.

The US Navy and Air Force traditionally strike before dawn with one purpose alone – to avoid the antiaircraft artillery (both small and medium-caliber), as well as a number of air defense systems with optical tracking, firing at them. Besides, a strike in the dark hours of the day affects the morale of the enemy personnel.

Here we need to understand that Iran would instantly retaliate, and Tehran has no small capabilities for that. In other words, it would be a full-scale war. For the US, it wouldn't end with one surgical airstrike without consequences, like in Syria. And the US seems to have a very vague idea on what a military victory over Iran would look like.

Also on rt.com US will not 'stumble into' war with Iran by mistake. If it happens, it will be by design

There is no doubt that a prolonged air campaign by the US will greatly undermine Iran's military and economic potential and reduce the country to the likes of Afghanistan, completely destroying its hydrocarbon production and exports industries.

To say how long such a campaign could last would be too much of a wild guess, but we have the examples of Operation Desert Storm in 1991 when airstrikes lasted for 38 days, and Yugoslavia in 1991 when the bombing continued for 78 days. So, theoretically, the US could bomb Iran for, say, 100 days, wrecking the country's economy and infrastructure step by step.

However, the price the US would have to pay for starting such a military conflict may turn out to be too high.

For instance, Iran can respond to US aggression by launching intermediate and shorter-range ballistic missiles to target oil and gas fields and terminals in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE.

Should such a war really happen, the stakes would be very high, so there is every reason to assume that Iran's missiles would not only be equipped with conventional high explosive fragmentation warheads, but would also carry toxic agents and dirty bombs.

Firstly, it should be pointed out that even though the capabilities of US intelligence agencies are almost limitless, quite a few Iranian missile launching sites remain undiscovered. Secondly, US air defense systems in the Persian Gulf, no matter how effective, would not shoot down every last Iranian missile. And even a handful of Tehran's missiles reaching critical infrastructure in the Persian Gulf region would be enough to cause devastation.

On top of that, there are more questions than answers regarding the reliability of the antimissile and air defense systems that the Persian Gulf monarchies deployed to defend their hydrocarbon terminals and other oil and gas infrastructure.

Also on rt.com $300 oil? US war with Iran spells catastrophe for global economy, expert tells RT

If such a scenario came true, that would bring inconceivable chaos to the global economy and would immediately drive up oil prices to $200-250 per barrel – and that's the lowest estimate. It is these implications that are most likely keeping the US from attacking Iran.

To solve the problem of Iran once and for all, the US would need to mount a large-scale ground operation, with the US Army invading the country. America would have to wipe out both regular Iranian forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, unseat the current leadership of Iran, and have a military presence in every major city for the next 10 to 15 years, keeping tight control over the entire country at the same time.

For the record, the US failed to do that even in Afghanistan, which is several times smaller than Iran in terms of both territory and population. And almost 18 years of fighting later, the US has achieved next to nothing.

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The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.

[Jun 26, 2019] Lawrence Wilkerson Trump Is Deepening the 'Economic War' Against Iran naked capitalism

Jun 26, 2019 | www.nakedcapitalism.com

GREG WILPERT It's not clear what impact these new sanctions will have on Iran, but the sanctions that have already been imposed since the US withdrew from the JCPOA last year have had a serious effect on Iran's economy. According to oil industry analysts, Iranian oil exports have dropped from 2.5 million barrels per day in April 2013, to about 300,000 barrels per day currently. The latest sanctions come on the heels of heightened tensions. Last week, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accused Iran of attacking two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Then later that week, Iran downed an expensive US drone over the same strait saying that it had entered Iranian airspace. President Trump later revealed that the US was about to retaliate over the weekend with an airstrike against Iran, but Trump changed his mind in the last minute and launched a cyber-attack against Iranian military facilities instead. Joining me now to discuss the latest in the confrontation between the US and Iran is Colonel Larry Wilkerson. He is former Chief of staff to the Secretary of State Colin Powell, and now a Distinguished Adjunct Professor of Government and Public Policy at the College of William and Mary. Thanks for joining us again, Larry.

COL. LAWRENCE WILKERSON Good to be with you.

GREG WILPERT So let's start with the sanctions. As I said, it's far from clear whether these latest sanctions mean anything, but the earlier sanctions are certainly having an effect on Iran, shrinking its economy and causing shortages. Now Trump argued that he called off the airstrike on Iran because he had been told that up to 150 people could have been killed, and that this would have been a disproportionate response to shooting down their drone, but there are reports that Iranians are having trouble accessing lifesaving medicines, such as for cancer treatment. Now, what do you make of this rationale for calling off the airstrike but then at the same time intensifying sanctions?

COL. LAWRENCE WILKERSON There is no question that the sanctions we have on Iran -- and for that matter on North Korea, and on Venezuela, perhaps even still do on Venezuela -- constitute economic warfare. That's the reality that the world doesn't seem to want to address because the United States is so powerful and that their economies and financial networks are so wrapped up with us. That said, it's not like -- And the crassness of the United States with regard to these sanctions was about saved by none other than Madeleine Albright best when she was confronted with a number of Iraqi children who were dying as a result of the sanctions we had on Saddam Hussein. And she simply said, well I thought it was worth it. Worth it -- to kill all those children? The sanctions regimes we execute though, are a little bit more sophisticated, a little bit more well-aimed, more precisely aimed these days.

I was very much associated with the ones on North Korea, ones on Iraq, the way we tried to smarten them up and so forth. The ones on Iran I think are having a very meaningful impact in terms of cutting down on Iran's ability to do everything that it does, including as you pointed out to sell oil. But that said, if Saddam Hussein could evade the sanctions that were on him to the extent that we now know he did, and we know from past experience how well the Kims evaded sanctions in North Korea and invented ways to get around them -- criminal activity like counterfeiting American hundred-dollar bills, for example. And other things that I know about sanctions, I would say the Iranians would be able to survive these no matter how tight we think we've made them. By and large, the Iranian government -- the Majlis, the judiciary, the Ayatollahs, the Guardian Council, the IRGC, the Quds Force -- they don't care about the Iranian people. That's one thing we ought to say more often and more frequently because it's true.

Corruption is so rife in Iran and all sanctions do is increase the money in the hands of those who are corrupt, like the IRGC and the Quds Force. So despite all these statistics and everything -- Look at oil, for example. ISIS, we now know, survived quite richly off its oil sales and we know that Turkey was behind most of the facilitation of those oil sales. The same thing is going to happen with Iran, so official statistics are really meaningless. That said, the sanctions are biting, but I don't think they're ever going to bite to the extent that someone's going to come forward like our Mr. Zarif and say, okay John. Okay Mike. Okay Donald. We're ready to talk. It is just not gonna happen.

Ashburn , June 26, 2019 at 1:50 pm

Even a so-called "surgical strike" on targets within Iran risks the Iranians closing the straight of Hormuz and blocking all oil shipments– somewhere between 20%- 30% or world's oil exports. World oil prices would skyrocket and the entire world's economy would be in chaos. Trillion$ in derivatives would instantly be at risk. There is no way the US military, or the Saudis can prevent this. I believe this is the real reason Trump supposedly cancelled the planned retaliatory strike for Iran's shoot-down of our drone.

Iran knows that sanctions on Iraq during the 90's killed over 500,000 Iraqi children. Even though Col. Wilkerson says Iran's leadership doesn't care about its people, they certainly care more than the US does and won't be willing to sit on their hands and watch this happen. They will resist with force if necessary and make the US and its subservient allies pay the price.

[Jun 25, 2019] Iran forces could attack the US in peripheral areas including especially Iraq

Notable quotes:
"... What usually stops the US are elections. The Vietnam War deeply threatened the US establishment and they "think" they learnt the lessons. ..."
"... The Russian military source says there is now active coordination between Russian and Iranian military staffs. "About coordination, of course there is participation of Russia in intelligence-sharing because of Bushehr and ISIS. We have a long and successful partnership with Iran, especially in terms of fighting against international terrorism." Two days after the drone incident, Russian specialist media published Iranian video footage of the movement of S-300's on trailer trucks. This report claims that although the S-300's are wheeled and motorized for rapid position changes, the use of highway transporters was intended to minimize road fatigue on the weapons. ..."
"... Iranian military sources have told western reporters they have established "a joint operations room to inform all its allies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan of every step it is adopting in confronting the US in case of all-out war in the Middle East." ..."
"... The incident happened Thursday before U.S. markets opened. There was the usual confusion about exactly what happened most of the day and we had that odd statement by Trump just before Thursday market close to the effect that maybe a rouge Iranian general made a mistake in shooting down the (in this case: manned P-8A) in 'international waters'. ..."
Jun 25, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

Don Bacon , Jun 25, 2019 9:23:37 AM | 177

Iran forces will attack the US in peripheral areas including especially Iraq. ..news reports...

U.S. officials are concerned that Iran has given the green light to Iranian-backed militias in Iraq to attack the more than 5,200 U.S. forces helping Iraqi Security Forces. And reflecting the unique situation in Iraq, some of those security forces are Iranian-backed militias that fall under the control of the Iraqi government.

For three days in a row this week, rockets have been fired at areas where U.S. forces or U.S. interests are located in Iraq. On Monday, rockets targeted Camp Taji, where the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS is training Iraqi security forces. On Tuesday, more rockets were fired at a compound in Mosul where U.S. troops are based. Then, another attack on Wednesday struck an oil facility near where ExxonMobil has employees.

Rocket attacks Wednesday on American and Turkish oil facilities in southern Iraq, which may have been carried out by Iranian-backed militias, are the latest example of how Iraq finds itself squarely in the middle of increasing tensions between its two closest partners, the United States and Iran.

Security measures were increased at one of Iraq's largest air bases that houses American trainers following an attack last week, a top Iraqi air force commander said Saturday. The U.S. military said operations at the base were going on as usual and there were currently no plans to evacuate personnel. The stepped-up Iraqi security measures at Balad air base, just north of the capital, Baghdad.

Don Bacon , Jun 25, 2019 9:27:36 AM | 178

@ Yeah, Right 1

Yes, correct, the US is over-extended, over-confident, and out-matched -- a bad mix.

Don Bacon , Jun 25, 2019 9:35:55 AM | 179
In Iran's immediate vicinity the US Navy is especially vulnerable. Iran has thousands of rockets and missiles, and knows how to use them, plus 34 submarines wirh 533mm torpedoes. There's the potential of over sixty torpedoes in the water in one salvo.

from USNI:

On Sunday, the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group with embarked 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit entered the U.S. 5th Fleet area of responsibility, joining the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group already on station in 5th Fleet.

As a result, the Navy now has 28,000 personnel deployed to the region. In comparison, the Navy currently has 24,000 personnel deployed to the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans, according to Navy data reviewed by USNI News.

"All of our training and our transit to 5th Fleet have made us prepared to respond to any crises across the range of military operations," Capt. Brad Arthur, commander of Amphibious Squadron 5 and the Boxer ARG/11th MEU team, said in a statement. . . here

Don Bacon , Jun 25, 2019 9:35:55 AM | 179 somebody , Jun 25, 2019 9:39:52 AM | 180
@Yeah, Right | Jun 25, 2019 9:06:21 AM | 175

What usually stops the US are elections. The Vietnam War deeply threatened the US establishment and they "think" they learnt the lessons.

- no conscripts
- as few dead soldiers as possibele - see Iraq or Afghanistan never mind the death of foreign civilians

So either others have to do the fighting (Syria) or the US bomb the country extensively to make it safe for their soldiers. They miscalculated on this in Iraq.

This here is John Helmer's take - who I assume, gets his information from the Russian military

The range of the new surveillance extends well beyond the S-300 strike distance of 200 kilometres, and covers US drone and aircraft bases on the Arabian peninsula, as well as US warships in (and under) the Persian Gulf and off the Gulf of Oman. Early warning of US air and naval-launched attacks has now been cut below the old 4 to 6-minute Iranian threshold. Counter-firing by the Iranian armed forces has been automated from attack warning and target location.

This means that if the US is detected launching a swarm of missiles aimed at Iran's air-defense sites, uranium mines, reactors, and military operations bunkers, Iran will launch its own swarm of missiles at the US firing platforms, as well as at Saudi and other oil production sites, refineries, and pipelines, as well tankers in ports and under way in the Gulf.

"The armed forces of Iran," said a Russian military source requesting anonymity, "have air defence systems capable of hitting air targets at those heights at which drones of the Global Hawk series can fly; this is about 19,000 to 20,000 metres. Iran's means of air defence are both foreign-purchased systems and systems of Iran's own design; among them, in particular, the old Soviet system S-75 and the new Russian S-300.

Recently, Iran transported some S-300's to the south, but that happened after the drone was shot down [June 20]. Russian specialists are working at Bushehr now and this means that the S-300's are also for protection of Bushehr."

... ... ...

The Russian military source says there is now active coordination between Russian and Iranian military staffs. "About coordination, of course there is participation of Russia in intelligence-sharing because of Bushehr and ISIS. We have a long and successful partnership with Iran, especially in terms of fighting against international terrorism." Two days after the drone incident, Russian specialist media published Iranian video footage of the movement of S-300's on trailer trucks. This report claims that although the S-300's are wheeled and motorized for rapid position changes, the use of highway transporters was intended to minimize road fatigue on the weapons.

Iranian military sources have told western reporters they have established "a joint operations room to inform all its allies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan of every step it is adopting in confronting the US in case of all-out war in the Middle East."

... ... ...

In briefings for sympathetic western reporters, Iranian commanders are emphasizing the Armageddon option; that is, however weak or strong their defenses may prove to be under prolonged US attack, the Iranian strategy is not to wait. Their plan, they say, is to counter-attack against Arab as well as American targets as soon as a US missile attack commences; that's to say, at launch, not in-flight nor at impact.

The US cannot sustain any prolonged war with Iran (see elections, dead soldiers), nor can they risk an escalation of small attacks. Nor can they isolate Iran diplomatically.

Don Bacon , Jun 25, 2019 9:47:32 AM | 181
@ 180

The Russian military source says there is now active coordination between Russian and Iranian military staffs.

from Mehr News today

Heading a high delegation of Iran's Defense Ministry and the Army, Iranian Deputy Defense Minister Brigadier General Ghasem Taghizadeh traveled to Moscow at the invitation of Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu on Tuesday morning.

He will hold talks with Russian Defense Minister and officials, as well as visit International Military-Technical Forum (ARMY-2019). . . here

PavewayIV , Jun 25, 2019 10:09:06 AM | 183
@imo@142 - Your remark about MMT and my reply have magically gelled (in my simian brain) for a grand unified conspiracy theory that explains a lot of oddities everyone has pointed out previously.

The plan for last Thurs/Fri:

The incident happened Thursday before U.S. markets opened. There was the usual confusion about exactly what happened most of the day and we had that odd statement by Trump just before Thursday market close to the effect that maybe a rouge Iranian general made a mistake in shooting down the (in this case: manned P-8A) in 'international waters'.

Worry, but not panic in the markets on Friday. Oil prices would still have jumped, but derivatives don't implode. War doesn't seem imminent. The public would have been admonished by Trump and the MSM to 'wait for the facts' before rushing to judgement (also calming the markets). Iran would have said nothing on Friday fearing the worse. It really couldn't have been planned better - plenty of time to start the buzz before the weekend but avert derivative Armageddon on Quad witching day.

Saturday is hate Iran a lot day:

The U.S. would hold off on any kind of confirmation until the weekend. CNN would immediately roll out videos of weeping children and widows of 'our brave heros' and document the impromptu memorials: pictures of the sailors, flowers, Teddy bears in camo, candles. Outraged politicians would call for Iranian blood. And, of course, oil prices would have skyrocketed.

The U.S. either conduct an attack on Iran this week or announce an impending one after sufficient grief was milked from the 38 deaths. Trump would be shown solemly saluting the flag-draped coffins in the C-5s arriving at Dover. If it *had* occurred in 'international waters', the U.S. Nave would have recovered everything and kept the Iran Navy away from the area. Casus belli - only a monster or traitor would dare question 'the facts'. Bibi would be shrieking nonstop about how he told us so and encourage us to hurry up and destroy Iran for them.

No sailors would have been hurt in this ruse:

I'm not making light of the thought of 38 dead U.S. sailors - none would have really died in this scenario. The P-8A would certianly have been stripped of it's radars and advanced electronics 'just in case'. Now there's plenty of extra room for those 38 frozen corpses dressed in the appropriate Navy flight uniforms. Load 'em up! A USN P-8A pilot somewhere safely ashore would be flying it via satellite just like regular drone pilots. Thanks, secret Honeywell mystery box in the electronics bay!

Iran would have been screwed:

Video of USN ships recovering those broken (and now unthawed) bodies from the Straits would have been required for the propaganda value. What could Iran say then? "We were targeting the drone in our airspace, not the P-8. Honest!" Too late of course. WAR:ON. Nobody would believe evil Iran.

Why even use a drone?

The drone would have to have been used for bait because Iran wouldn't intentionally shoot at a P-8A (stuffed with frozen bodies or not) flying the same non-threating routes in the middle of the Strait that they usually fly. The drone would also have been stripped but all it's remaining cameras to capture the horrible, intentinal massacre by Iran. The plan would have put that in Iranian airspace without explaining anything to Iran. It was suppose to draw SAM fire.

What could have gone wrong?

The U.S. must have had enough EW on both aircraft to ensure the MQ-4A became invisible to an approaching missile, which would eventually only seen the P-8A on it's terminal guidance radar, not the drone. Except the Iraqis fired a SAM that used IR for terminal guidance, not radar, ignoring whatever trick the U.S. used. The Iranian SAM may have also used a proximity fuse, detonating it near the drone anyway. "Damn you, sneaky Iranians and your primative IR-seeking SAMs with secret proximity fuses! Do you realize how much time and effort we put in with our F-35s to figuring out the required radar tricks for this elaborate scheme?"

Opening salvo:

This could also explain the bizzare 150 dead Iranian people figure Trump claimed. There would have been a pre-planned retalitory strike on the Iranian SAM sites, but only after market closed on Friday or on Saturday. An opening salvo only - total war would surely follow. The U.S. would offer some fake deal. Iran would be spared destruction if they got on their knees to their U.S. and Israeli masters. That just wouldn't ever happen, so WAR:ON. If the U.S. went ahead with the retaliory strike based only on the drone alone, then we would have looked like the bad guys.

How much might Iran have known?

Odd that the P-8A track wasn't also published by Iran. I wonder how they knew about the 35 frozen bodies or if they really thought there were 35 live crew? Guess we'll never know, and nobody would believe such a nutty claim by Iran now. Frozen bodies? Remote controlled P-8As? 'Bait drone'? Hah - sounds like somethig that crackhead Paveway would dream up! Things may have been differnt than this, but I think most people (here, anyway) were surprised by the initial bewilderment of the Trump administration and DoD.

"What? They actually shot the drone down, not the P-8? *%^&! Why did they do that? Get rid of the plane and dump those damn frozen bodies somewhere really deep. If you suspect anybody on our team might be the whistleblowoing type, report them our CIA cleaner pals to be disappeared. Hell, what do I care? My broker just called. I'm rich! F*ck the navy - I'm retireing. See ya!"

And where the hell do you get frozen bodies today that can pass for U.S. military? Does the Pentagon have a freezer of them somewhere for emergency use?

Some folks probably made some money [sigh...]

All I can say now is glad nothing happened as planned. I would give anything to know how many commanding elite in the U.S. military and in-the-know congress things were buying oil call options through proxies last week. Netanyahu and MbS were sure to have loaded up - they LOVE money.

psychohistorian , Jun 25, 2019 10:35:22 AM | 189
Is there consensus now that we are in WWIII?

Thanks to somebody above with the Russia is behind Iran facts that show that attacks on Iran are not possible but for show.

Thanks to PavewayIV with the curious scenario and confirmation that for some it is all about MONEY

I think the EU leaders are a bit conflicted in anticipation of the G20, eh? Are they going to join the Coalition of he Willing like their money boys tell them or do something else?

What a way to fight a war.......lets hope the fighting does not go stupider.

[Jun 25, 2019] Iran doesn't have to win a shooting war, it only has to buy enough time so that its forces can disrupt oil shipments

Existence of financial derivatives on oil (aka "paper oil") and the size of trade involving them in world markets changes the whole situation. The USA can shoot themselves in a foot even if the US armed forces would be able to completely destroy the Iraq army air defenses and bomb strategic targets.
Jun 25, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org
KA Hopkins , Jun 25, 2019 6:03:12 AM | 154
There seems to be a common theme in many articles that 'shock and awe' military strikes will force Iran's leaders into unconditional surrender. While the US has the capability to do this on its own, for political reasons the US is actively seeking coalition partners. The reality is it doesn't matter how many partners the US can convince to attack Iran. No matter how sophisticated Iran's cyber, missile or air defenses are, based on simple logistics Iran will eventually lose a shooting war against the US and any coalition partners. Iran knows this.

The real question when the bombing starts, is not the number of casualties that Iran can inflict on her enemies but how long before Iran realizes it will lose and calls on all of its asymmetric regional forces to attack in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, UAE, Saudi Arabia and the Straits of Hormuz.

Iran doesn't have to win a shooting war, it only has to buy enough time that its forces can disrupt oil shipments to China, India, Japan, South Korean and Europe to break the supply chains to the US. Currently the US imports/exports over 5T dollars per year, even impacting this by only 20% should cause the trillions in derivatives to crush the world economy. Given that war should always be the option of last resort is there still the possibility for negotiations?

Iran has too many examples of the promises of US and West not matching our actions. The current sanctions are crippling the economy and backing Iran into a corner. No matter what Iran does what guarantees can be provided that sanctions won't be reapplied. Absolutely none. The criteria constantly change. There is an old saying in martial arts, in a fight an opponent with no way out is far more formable than an opponent who can walk away.

Even a wide scale nuclear attack that wipes out a third of Iran's citizens in the ten major cities and a majority of the armed forces probably won't succeed. Once nuclear weapons are used, Iran's leaders are no longer constrained to any regional targets. If Russia and China jump in to the fray then it could get real, as in WWIII awfully quickly. Even without Russia and China getting involved, Iran's leaders just might consider 30M or more deaths acceptable if her enemies are crushed. There is precedent for this. Estimates put Russia's losses due to all causes in WWII at 25-30M people, and Russia called it a win.

So all the babble that Iran will fold in the face of 'shock and awe' is naïve. Iran can't win a shooting war but if can lose with style. To think that Iran can be defeated like Iraq is folly. Iran is not Iraq. Iraq is a local power, Iran is a regional one. Iran is too large to be attacked by ground forces. That leaves airpower. Once the bombs start to drop, all Iranian combat units have a minimum of 72 hours of war supplies. If the US and the coalition partners don't achieve, 'unconditional surrender' in the initial strikes then all bets are off for keeping the conflict local.

Many articles claim the tanker and pipeline attacks of the past two weeks are 'false flags'. Hopefully they were, because if they were not, then Iran has just proven it's ready and has the capability to strike anywhere in the region. Iran is quickly running out of options and has no choice but to continue escalating regional tensions until something gives. We are indeed living in interesting times.

[Jun 25, 2019] Iran is nearly western, much more so than neighbouring Arab countries and despite resentment people will rally to defend the republic

Jun 25, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

Laguerre , Jun 24, 2019 6:21:31 PM | 89

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jun 24, 2019 4:58:26 PM | 59

Just to add on my recent visit to Iran. They are nearly western, much more so than neighbouring Arab countries. But there are curiosities which keep them apart, like the hijri solar calendar, which puts them in 1398, and the 1st of the year on 21st March. Impossible to calculate the western date without mechanical aid.

Most that I met were anti-regime. but then they were middle class. It's not the middle class which is voting for the regime. Rather it is a populist regime, like Trump's.


xLemming , Jun 24, 2019 6:37:12 PM | 92

@19 js

As a follower of Christ, and seasoned "fruit inspector"* I can confidently state the there is more godly wisdom & compassion for humanity displayed by Iran, Russia, Iraq, Syria & Palestine than ALL of the West & especially not by the likes of Pompeo, Pence, Robertson, etc

* "By their fruits you shall know them" NOT by words alone

xLemming , Jun 24, 2019 6:58:17 PM | 94
@48 op

This may be totally naive, but how about this... Iran gets a couple nukes from somewhere, ie. NK, Russia, Pakistan, India, Walmart... and announce it & put an end to this drawn out dance... and force Israel, US, etc to come to terms with it. This is a war after all, and Iran has been bullied long enough (as have we all)

Jen , Jun 24, 2019 7:12:57 PM | 95
Laguerre @ 88:

I admit I have never been to Iran though I've met people who have visited the country as tourists. I have done some reading on the country's history.

Being an Islamic theocracy, the fact that Iran uses the hijri calendar is no surprise. The calendar is actually a lunar calendar of 12 months that is at least a week or a fortnight shorter than the Gregorian calendar we normally use. (This explains why every year Ramadan starts earlier than it did the previous year.) 21st March on the other hand is Nowruz (Persian New Year) which among other things celebrates the spring equinox and is an inheritance from pre-Islamic Persia.

I have read some information about the bonyads (charitable foundations) owned / managed by the IRGC and other government organisations. These trusts (non-profit so they are exempt from taxation) invest huge amounts in Iran's industries. Just the other day I was commenting at another blog about a senior military guy in the Iranian armed forces, General Hossein Salami, who works with a huge IRGC-associated engineering firm that controls over 800 firms and employs over 25,000 mostly technical and engineering staff . The income that bonyads obtain from a firm like Salami's firm and others, which in Western countries would be considered "profit", is distributed among IRGC members (or members of the other government agencies that run them) in the form of subsidies for education up to and including college / university level, healthcare and other social services.

My understanding is that most people who are members of the IRGC come from working class families and especially families who lost breadwinners or other men of draft age during the Iraq-Iran war (1980 - 1988).

Middle class and upper middle class layers would be the hardest hit by US sanctions on Iran (they are the ones importing and buying overseas goods, and have the most contacts with the Iranian diaspora) and won't have the protection of subsidies provided by bonyads or other government organisations.

Grieved , Jun 24, 2019 7:59:24 PM | 99
I have to say I find this talk of "the mullahs" disturbing.

I never see any collateral to demonstrate that the religious layer of Iran is actually harmful to the people in any way. And on the contrary, everything I read about how the religious layer is part of the governing system and the culture and welfare of the nation seems pretty reasonable to me.

I keep coming back to the thought that this is after all the religion of the people of this country. It is the particular way in which they approach the sacredness of the universe. I'm not persuaded that it's more intelligent to regard the universe as being not-sacred.

To accept the benignity of religious people in positions of power and influence within a state, you have to accept the positive aspects of religion, as well as the negative aspects. This is where a lot of potential acceptance fails, of course.

~~

We keep hearing that it is the middle and upper classes that are disaffected with the government (although typically the term "regime" is used). But in this cold-hearted, neoliberal economic wasteland, surely the fact that the poor and the unprivileged are in support of their government is not a study in "populism" but rather a study in successful socialist principles at work?

And the link provided in the previous thread regarding Iran's leadership in the war on drugs stated that over 8,000 Iranian police have died fighting the flow of opium from Afghanistan. The position of the US in this trade is clear to everyone, and the reason to sanction Iran - precisely to shackle the Iranian interdiction of the drug flow - is also clear.

Iran strikes me very much as being like Cuba, in that its good works that yield no profit are greater than any that come from the western nations. Ir almost seems that only a socialist, revolutionary nation has freed itself from the shackles of greed enough to pursue actions purely from moral concern.

I like Khamenei. I envy a country that has a moral anchor such as he, a force that acts not as its captain but as its pilot.

~~

No particular point to make. Just some words in support of devotion to the sacred, and the moral strength to live a life, and direct a country, along moral lines, rather than criminal.

Arata , Jun 24, 2019 8:12:20 PM | 101
@| 95

The Shah came to power with USA + UK coup on 1953, he lacked legitimacy, that was his main problem, he was not an indepdendt legimtimate ruler.

Understanding Iran revolution and the long historical march is too complicated. On the surface and apperance it seems on political, ideoligical/ theoligical levels, but the movement is deeply in cultural and social level. Otherwise it would not be able to survive, resist and grow for 40 years. It may take another 40-50 years the movement bear fruits.

Uncle Jon , Jun 24, 2019 8:14:18 PM | 102
@ATH 97

The Shah was a tragic figure in many ways. You are correct about being the servant of his masters until he outgrew that and started having Persian Empire ambitions. Perhaps too soon for the politics of the era. The west of the 1970's preferred a King Hussein of Jordan. Quiet, unpretentious and cooperative.

The Shah was a super intelligent, extremely well informed and well-read, and a great debater. No journalist was a match for him, not even the crass and arrogant Mike Wallace. But inherently, he was a weak man with a character that did not match his ambitions. That weakness did not allow him to follow through with his plans and he had great plans for his country.

Having said that, IMHO, the Seven Sisters' decision to remove him, and him capitulating so easy, was one the biggest mistakes in modern geopolitics. Look what has happened since then. Furthermore, Dynasties and kings are in Persian DNA. I often laugh at the talk of democracy in Iran, as you cannot have 4-5 Iranians sit together and agree to disagree. One idea always has to come on top and the rest be damned.

Obviously, there are so many other factors and it would a lengthy discussion best to have over a nice Cuban cigar and a single Malt.

psychohistorian , Jun 24, 2019 8:47:00 PM | 112
@ C I eh? who wrote
"
Iran can pursue the strategy of Russia, patience and double dealing, indefinitely or till the cows come home.
"
Totally agree.

In the case of bullies the best offense is a good defense and Iran showed it has good defense to shoot down the spy plane and not the one with cannon fodder nearby

How many more bully nations other than Israel and the US are currently "active"?

None.

This is why the G20 will be interesting to see how much the global finance power struggle shows itself.....the cows are coming home perhaps....

karlof1 , Jun 24, 2019 9:33:02 PM | 118
As alluded to by several and directly pointed to by me, Iran's defensive capabilities have placed the Outlaw US Empire's King in check and have forced it to move into hiding on the board behind what amounts to nothing of substance. I think it an amazing admission that the self-proclaimed most powerful military EVER on Earth must ask for assistance to overthrow what is a popular Iranian government--a government and people in a strategic location within Eurasia on the cusp of initiating an geoeconomic/geopolitical system capable of upending the Empire's #1 policy goal of attaining Full Spectrum Dominance. What nation other than the usual co-outlaws will join in an action that is totally against its interests--what nation wants, desires, to be dominated by another?

As I see it, the next move on the global chess board will occur at the G-20, and the King will be placed in check again. However, the move required to get away from the check situation won't be as simple as was just done today. It will require complex finesse of a sort TrumpCo has yet to exhibit. It seems likely Trump will try to redirect attention away from his Iranian failure, but that won't alter the fact that he must move his King.

Jen , Jun 24, 2019 9:39:10 PM | 119
There has been much recent speculation about the restoration of monarchy in Iran in Western news media which would suggest this is something currently occupying the minds of the, uh, "best" and "brightest" brains over at Langley, Foggy Bottom and the bizarre ziggurat building at Vauxhall Cross in London.

One little problem that our Western news media and their feeders may have overlooked is that traditionally only men inherit the throne in Iran.

The current Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has only three daughters. His younger brother Ali Reza (committed suicide in January 2011) left behind one daughter.

There are two male survivors of the previous Qajar dynasty .

Realist , Jun 24, 2019 10:45:32 PM | 126
Iran strikes me very much as being like Cuba, in that its good works that yield no profit are greater than any that come from the western nations. Ir almost seems that only a socialist, revolutionary nation has freed itself from the shackles of greed enough to pursue actions purely from moral concern.

Posted by: Grieved | Jun 24, 2019 7:59:24 PM | 98

How does Iran strike you in this way? You have traveled in Iran? You have lived in Iran?

Do actually you give a fuck about Iran and Iranians? (Be honest. I mean care they way you care about your FAMILY.)

Iran has been kept artificaly retarded and its development plans halted. A million Iranians perished in a needless war. Iranians are forced to accept outrageous intrusions on Iran's sovereignty. Our best minds continue to leave. And now we're being threatened with nuclear bombardment.

"Winning"?

Why don't you wish that on your own people. Hah?

One imagines it must have been very alarming to the Global Mafia when the Shah of Iran announced the plans for the Port of Chabahar. Can you imagine a developed Iran, in good international standing, with a thriving modern port right on the Ohormozd [Hormoz] Strait? Do recent events jingle a bell somewhere there, Grieved?

"Socialist"

A welfare state is not the same thing as a "socialist" system.

IRI runs a welfare state to keep the lower classes on their side. They are hugely corrupted, even Ahmadinejad was screaming about it. It is not even remotely a secret.

The greed of the Mullahs is legendary. You clearly have never dealt with a member of that species. I suggest you acquaint yourself with Iranian's assessment of our clerical snakes.

[Obviously mature readers recognize that in any gross characterization we omit stating the obvious fact that "in most every grouping of people there are exceptional and principled members." We state this here for those who are not.]

Ninel , Jun 24, 2019 10:21:19 PM | 122

Poor Iranians! They are victims of both internal and external repression.

Kadath , Jun 24, 2019 11:03:49 PM | 128
re: 89 Laguerre

I highly doubt that Khamenei has even $0.01 worth of assets in the US, however the real purpose of sanctioning Khamenei and other Iranian government officials (supposedly including the Iranian Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif) is not to seize their assets but to make international diplomacy more difficult. For example, if Khamenei were to travel to Iraq to face to face discussions with the Iraqi Prime Minister the US would now have the legal framework to sanction any company involved in the travel arrangements, accommodations, insurance, etc... Sanctioning Javad Zarif is an especially dick move as he is one of the leading Iranian moderates and was in favor of the original JCPOA agreement. I suspect that when Javad Zarif tries to attend the next UN summit in New York the US will attempt to sabotage his travel based on these sanctions.

This is also more proof that the US wants a war with Iran as they are trying to crush the moderates within Iran in the hopes that 1) the hardliners will become ascendant within Iran and that they will pursue policies that will make it easier for the US to justify their eventual attack on Iran and 2) making it more difficult for senior government officials to travel aboard will make Iran's international diplomacy less effective in developing a international coalition in opposition to the war. China and Russia acting as proxies and advocates for Iran will be vital for future discussions

Krollchem , Jun 24, 2019 11:16:08 PM | 129
Realist@124

(1) "Iran has been kept artifically retarded and its development plans halted. A million Iranians perished in a needless war."
Do you realize that Iran was attacked by Saddam who was supported by the US and that the US provided Saddam with vast quantities of chemical and biological weapons?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War

(2) "One imagines it must have been very alarming to the Global Mafia when the Shah of Iran announced the plans for the Port of Chabahar."

Did you know that the Shah was installed on 19 August 1953 following the overthrow of democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in Operation Ajax by the US and the United Kingdom?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat

(3) "IRI runs a welfare state to keep the lower classes on their side."

Sounds like the US system where the two wings of the bird of prey are the Democrats and the Republicans (Upton Sinclair, 1904). Please read up on US Neofeudal Oligarchy before throwing stones at regimes that do not meet your ideological viewpoint.
https://www.oftwominds.com/blogjune19/lessons-rome6-19.html

Yes I understand why the US would want to rape Iran and Venezuela for their energy resources. Without these pools of liquid energy the US Empire will collapse on itself. I suggest you read 1Pathfinding Our Destiny for a reality check on the US system.
https://www.oftwominds.com/Pathfinding-Our-Destiny-sample2.pdf

I suggest that you worry about the US Zionist "christian" endtimers seeking the rapture than the Iranian Mullahs.

/div> Realist, what are you asking for? Are you wishing for Ukraine's fate? Or Brazil's? Or El Salvador's? The political situation in Iran should be, by rights, an Iranian issue. I live in a country that spends trillions making life miserable for others, killing and maiming them but cannot afford to look after it's own people. This is by rights my problem, and I and my fellow citizens should be working to correct this imbalance. What advice do you have? What advice should I give you? We are caught in a terrible, foolish dance but have not the power, as individuals, to escape. This is life. Enjoy some tahdig. Railing against people here is not particularly enlightning for anyone.

Posted by: the pessimist , Jun 24, 2019 11:39:51 PM | 132

Realist, what are you asking for? Are you wishing for Ukraine's fate? Or Brazil's? Or El Salvador's? The political situation in Iran should be, by rights, an Iranian issue. I live in a country that spends trillions making life miserable for others, killing and maiming them but cannot afford to look after it's own people. This is by rights my problem, and I and my fellow citizens should be working to correct this imbalance. What advice do you have? What advice should I give you? We are caught in a terrible, foolish dance but have not the power, as individuals, to escape. This is life. Enjoy some tahdig. Railing against people here is not particularly enlightning for anyone.

Posted by: the pessimist | Jun 24, 2019 11:39:51 PM | 132

dltravers , Jun 24, 2019 11:41:31 PM | 133
IRI runs a welfare state to keep the lower classes on their side. They are hugely corrupted, even Ahmadinejad was screaming about it. It is not even remotely a secret.

The greed of the Mullahs is legendary. You clearly have never dealt with a member of that species. I suggest you acquaint yourself with Iranian's assessment of our clerical snakes.

I have had quite a few Iranians describe that situation to me. It is amazing how the Christian religious leadership gets bashed, mostly rightly so, and the Mullahs get a pass. I am sure they do get the job done shaking down the flock. Probably not as mullaevangelists on TV but there are other ways. I bet one could amass quite a flock of daughters to your harem.

A quick question: if there really were 35/38 American servicemen jammed into a P-8 and dangled before the Iranians like a juicy bait on a hook then how, exactly, are they going to view that display of casual recklessness w.r.t. their lives?

Wouldn't they be more than a little pissed off with the revelation that the Iranian military cared more about their mortal souls than did their own superiors in the US chain of command?

I was listening to a recent interview of Liberty survivors. One survivor just joined the group after retiring from the intelligence establishment. He was on the fantail after the ship got hit and described the whole thing including the Israeli torpedo boats flying their flags firing at the Liberty. Later at port he had to retrieve the dead. He was threatened by the naval brass to be silent and went on to work for them for the rest of his life.

DC is full of these guys "afraid for their careers and pension". Do not expect to much out of them.

col from OZ , Jun 25, 2019 12:08:56 AM | 134
Grieved
I agree with you summation of the Governance of Iran. The supreme Leader has a fatwa on the creating/ion of Nuclear weapons which he says is immoral. Well their you have it, a gaggle of US presidents who only live to breathe the threaten use of nuclear weapons upon 'their enemies', against a leader who wishers not the power of such a immoral weapon..

[Jun 25, 2019] Pepe Escobar-described $1.2 quadrillion global financial Ponzi of fake money (derivatives) implode and financial markets everywhere will be locked shut. In a matter of hours, not days.

Jun 25, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

PavewayIV , Jun 24, 2019 9:32:48 PM | 117

Oscar Peterson@48 - "...Targeting Saudi or UAE oil infrastructure is possible, but that will be hard (and risky) if deniability is a goal..."

The second Iran is forced to resort to hitting Saudi or UAE oil infrastructure, we'll see the Pepe Escobar-described $1.2 quadrillion global financial Ponzi of fake money (derivatives) implode and financial markets everywhere will be locked shut. In a matter of hours, not days.

Now the Swiss banker's claim may be off by a few hundred trillion either way, but it really doesn't matter. That's way too much money for some kind of secretive global financial bailout - in fact, there isn't that much REAL money available in the whole world. The guy that bought oil futures for pennies at $1000/bbl will now be a trillionaire. Except there won't be anyone that can or will pay him. "But it's a futures contract - someone has to buy his $1000/bbl oil. That's the rulez!" Yeah, he may as well have bought a stack of Zimbabwe $10 trillion dollar notes instead and been a hundred trillionaire, for what that's worth.

Pepe uses extremes to make his point, but oil doesn't really need to go to $1000/bbl. or even $500/bbl. - $200/bbl oil will lock the oil derivative markets. Which will keep all linked financial derivative markets (virtually all of them) locked or wiped out. The big banks will be herding cats at that point and imploding themselves, and nobody will care about fighting anyone in the Persian Gulf. Besides, all CENTCOM and USSOCOM personnel will be needed back here in the United States to protect the government from the people.

Iran won't be affected much because the U.S. and Israel made sure they were never allowed in the global financial sandbox. Poor countries with massive IMF loans? Yeah, they won't care - the little people never saw a dime of that, anyway. Russia is as prepared as possible and will do fine. China? Sorry. They're going down with everyone else. I'll let everyone know how the food riots in the U.S. turn out. That's if I survive until 2025 when the internet comes back up and if the planet isn't ruled by talking apes. Wait... that last part already happened. Forget it.

I guess I'll just head north to steal a few barrels of tar sands from Canada. James: how do I get there from Minnesota on foot? I won't have Google Maps. Nobody will. Do you have any spare barrels?

[Jun 23, 2019] Provoking Iran Could Start A War And Crash The Entire World Economy

Jun 23, 2019 | www.zerohedge.com

Provoking Iran Could Start A War And Crash The Entire World Economy

by Tyler Durden Sun, 06/23/2019 - 15:25 2 SHARES Authored by Federico Pieraccini via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

Tensions in the Persian Gulf are reaching a point of no return . In recent weeks, six oil tankers have been subjected to Israeli sabotage disguised to look like Iranian attacks to induce the United States to take military action against the Islamic Republic. Some days ago Iran rightfully shot out of the sky a US Drone. In Yemen, the Houthis have finally started responding with cruise and ballistic missiles to the Saudis' indiscriminate attacks, causing damage to the Saudi international airport of Abha, as well as blocking, through explosive drones , Saudi oil transportation from east to west through one of the largest pipelines in the world.

As if the political and military situation at this time were not tense and complex enough, the two most important power groups in the United States, the Fed and the military-industrial complex, both face problems that threaten to diminish Washington's status as a world superpower .

The Fed could find itself defending the role of the US dollar as the world reserve currency during any conflict in the Persian Gulf that would see the cost of oil rise to $300 a barrel , threatening trillions of dollars in derivatives and toppling the global economy.

The military-industrial complex would in turn be involved in a war that it would struggle to contain and even win, destroying the United States' image of invincibility and inflicting a mortal blow on its ability to project power to the four corners of the world.

Just look at how surprised US officials were about Iran's capabilities to shot down an advanced US Drone:

"Iran's ability to target and destroy the high-altitude American drone, which was developed to evade the very surface-to-air missiles used to bring it down, surprised some Defense Department officials, who interpreted it as a show of how difficult Tehran can make things for the United States as it deploys more troops and steps up surveillance in the region."

The Fed and the defense of the dollar

The US dollar-based economy has a huge debt problem caused by post-2008 economic policies. All central banks have lowered interest rates to zero or even negative, thus continuing to feed otherwise dying economies.

The central bank of central banks, the Bank for International Settlements, an entity hardly known to most people, has stated in writing that "the outstanding notional amount of derivative contracts is 542 trillion dollars." The total combined GDP of all the countries of the world is around 75 trillion dollars.

With the dimensions of the problem thus understood, it is important to look at how Deutsche Bank (DB), one of the largest financial institutions in the world, is dealing with this. The German bank alone has assets worth about 40 trillion dollars in derivatives, or more than half of annual global GDP.

Their solution, not at all innovative or effective, has been to create yet another bad bank into which to pour at least 50 billion dollars of long-term assets, which are clearly toxic.

Reuters explains :

"The bad bank would house or sell assets valued at up to 50 billion euros ($56 billion) – after adjusting for risk – and comprising mainly long-dated derivatives.

The measures are part of a significant restructuring of the investment bank, a major source of revenue for Germany's largest lender, which has struggled to generate sustainable profits since the 2008 financial crisis."

Thus, not only has Deutsche Bank accumulated tens of billions of dollars in unsuccessful options and securities, it seeks to obtain a profit that has been elusive since 2008, the year of the financial crisis. Deutsche Bank is full of toxic bonds and inflated debts kept alive through the flow of quantitative easing (QE) money from the European Central Bank, the Fed and the Japanese Central Bank. Without QE, the entire Western world economy would have fallen into recession with a chain of bubbles bursting, such as in public and private debt.

If the economy was recovering, as we are told by soi-disant financial experts, the central-bank rates would rise. Instead, rates have plummeted for about a decade, to the extent of becoming negative loans.

If the Western financial trend is undoubtedly heading towards an economic abyss as a result of the monetary policies employed after 2008 to keep a dying economy alive, what is the rescue plan for the US dollar, its status as a global-reserve currency, and by extension of US hegemony? Simply put, there is no rescue plan.

There could not be one because the next financial crisis will undoubtedly wipe out the US dollar as a global reserve currency, ending US hegemony financed by unlimited spending power. All countries possessing a modicum of foresight are in the process of de-dollarizing their economies and are converting strategic reserves from US or US-dollar government bonds to primary commodities like gold.

The military-industrial complex and the harsh reality in Iran

In this economic situation that offers no escape, the immediate geopolitical effect is a surge of war threats in strategic locations like the Persian Gulf. The risk of a war of aggression against Iran by the Saudi-Israeli-US axis would have little chance of success, but it would probably succeed in permanently devastating the global economy as a result of a surge in oil prices.

The risk of war on Iran by this triad seems to be the typical ploy of the bad loser who, rather than admit defeat, would rather pull the rug out from under everyone's feet in order to bring everybody down with him. Tankers being hit and then blamed on Iran with no evidence are a prime example of how to create the plausible justification for bombing Tehran.

Upon closer examination, it becomes apparent that the actions of Bolton and Pompeo seem to be aligned in prolonging the United States' unipolar moment, continuing to issue diktats to other countries and failing to recognize the multipolar reality we live in. Their policies and actions are accelerating the dispersal of power away from the US and towards other great powers like Russia and China, both of which also have enormous influence in the Persian Gulf.

The threat of causing a conflict in the Persian Gulf, and thereby making the price of oil soar to $300 a barrel, will not save US hegemony but will rather end up accelerating the inevitable end of the US dollar as a global reserve currency.

Trump is in danger of being crushed between a Fed that sees the US dollar's role as the world's reserve currency collapse, and the need for the Fed to blame someone not linked to the real causes of the collapse, that is to say, the monetary policies adopted through QE to prolong the post-crisis economic agony of 2008.

At the same time, with Trump as president, the neocon-Israeli-Saudi supporters see a unique opportunity to strike Iran, a desire that has remained unchanged for 40 years.

As foolish as it may seem, a war on Iran could be the perfect option that satisfies all power groups in the United States. The hawks would finally have their war against Tehran, the world economy would sink, and the blame would fall entirely on Trump. The Donald, as a result, would lose any chance of being re-elected so it makes sense for him to call off possible strikes as he did after the US drone was shot out of the sky.

While unable to live up to his electoral promises, Trump seems to be aware that the path laid out for him in the event of an attack on Iran would lead to his political destruction and probably to a conflict that is militarily unsustainable for the US and especially its Saudi and Israeli allies. It would also be the catalyst for the collapse of the world economy.

In trying to pressure Iran into new negotiations, Trump runs the risk of putting too much pressure on Tehran and giving too much of a free hand to the provocations of Pompeo and Bolton that could end up triggering a war in the Strait of Hormuz.

Putin and Xi Jinping prepare for the worst

Our current geopolitical environment requires the careful and considered attention of relevant heads of state. The repeated meetings between Putin and Xi Jinping indicate that Russia and China are actively preparing for any eventuality. The closer we get to economic collapse, the more tensions and chaos increase around the world thanks to the actions of Washington and her close allies.

Xi Jinping and Putin, who have inherited this chaotic situation, have met at least a dozen times over the last six months , more recently meeting at least three times over two months. The pressing need is to coordinate and prepare for what will inevitably happen, once again trying to limit and contain the damage by a United States that is completely out of control and becoming a danger to all, allies and enemies alike.

As Putin just recently said:

"The degeneration of the universalistic model of globalization and its transformation into a parody, caricature of itself, where the common international rules are replaced by administrative and judicial laws of a country or group of countries.

The fragmentation of global economic space with a policy of unbridled economic selfishness and an imposed collapse. But this is the road to infinite conflict, trade wars and perhaps not just commercial ones. Figuratively, this is the road to the final struggle of all against all.

It is necessary to draft a more stable and fair development model. These agreements should not only be written clearly, but should be observed by all participants.

However, I am convinced that talking about a world economic order such as this will remain a pious desire unless we return to the center of the discussion, that is to say, notions like sovereignty, the unconditional right of each country to its own path to development and, let me add, responsibility in the universal sustainable development, not just its own."

The spokesman of the Chancellery of the People's Republic of China, Hua Chun Ying, echoed this sentiment:

"The American leaders say that 'the era of the commercial surrender of their country has come to an end', but what is over is their economic intimidation of the world and their hegemony.

The United States must again respect international law, not arrogate to itself extraterritorial rights and mandates, must learn to respect its peers in safeguarding transparent and non-discriminatory diplomatic and commercial relations. China and the United States have negotiated other disputes in the past with good results and the doors of dialogue are open as long as they are based on mutual respect and benefits.

But as long as these new trade disputes persist, China informs the government of the United States of America and the whole world that it will immediately impose duties on each other, unilaterally on 128 products from the United States of America.

Also, we think we will stop buying US public debt. It's all, good night!"

I wonder if Europeans will understand all this before the impending disaster. I doubt it.

[Jun 23, 2019] Iran Goes for Maximum Counter-Pressure by Pepe Escobar

Derivatives exposure is Achilles spot of the USA in this conflict
Jun 23, 2019 | www.unz.com
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Sooner or later the US "maximum pressure" on Iran would inevitably be met by "maximum counter-pressure". Sparks are ominously bound to fly.

For the past few days, intelligence circles across Eurasia had been prodding Tehran to consider a quite straightforward scenario. There would be no need to shut down the Strait of Hormuz if Quds Force commander, General Qasem Soleimani, the ultimate Pentagon bête noire, explained in detail, on global media, that Washington simply does not have the military capacity to keep the Strait open.

As I previously reported , shutting down the Strait of Hormuz

would destroy the American economy by detonating the $1.2 quadrillion derivatives market; and that would collapse the world banking system, crushing the world's $80 trillion GDP and causing an unprecedented depression.

Soleimani should also state bluntly that Iran may in fact shut down the Strait of Hormuz if the nation is prevented from exporting essential two million barrels of oil a day, mostly to Asia. Exports, which before illegal US sanctions and de facto blockade would normally reach 2.5 million barrels a day, now may be down to only 400,000.

Soleimani's intervention would align with consistent signs already coming from the IRGC. The Persian Gulf is being described as an imminent "shooting gallery." Brigadier General Hossein Salami stressed that Iran's ballistic missiles are capable of hitting "carriers in the sea" with pinpoint precision. The whole northern border of the Persian Gulf, on Iranian territory, is lined up with anti-ship missiles – as I confirmed with IRGC-related sources.

We'll let you know when it's closed

Then, it happened.

Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Major General Mohammad Baqeri, went straight to the point ; "If the Islamic Republic of Iran were determined to prevent export of oil from the Persian Gulf, that determination would be realized in full and announced in public, in view of the power of the country and its Armed Forces."

The facts are stark. Tehran simply won't accept all-out economic war lying down – prevented to export the oil that protects its economic survival. The Strait of Hormuz question has been officially addressed. Now it's time for the derivatives.

Presenting detailed derivatives analysis plus military analysis to global media would force the media pack, mostly Western, to go to Warren Buffett to see if it is true. And it is true. Soleimani, according to this scenario, should say as much and recommend that the media go talk to Warren Buffett.

The extent of a possible derivatives crisis is an uber-taboo theme for the Washington consensus institutions. According to one of my American banking sources, the most accurate figure – $1.2 quadrillion – comes from a Swiss banker, off the record. He should know; the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) – the central bank of central banks – is in Basle.

The key point is it doesn't matter how the Strait of Hormuz is blocked.

It could be a false flag. Or it could be because the Iranian government feels it's going to be attacked and then sinks a cargo ship or two. What matters is the final result; any blocking of the energy flow will lead the price of oil to reach $200 a barrel, $500 or even, according to some Goldman Sachs projections, $1,000.

Another US banking source explains; "The key in the analysis is what is called notional. They are so far out of the money that they are said to mean nothing. But in a crisis the notional can become real. For example, if I buy a call for a million barrels of oil at $300 a barrel, my cost will not be very great as it is thought to be inconceivable that the price will go that high. That is notional. But if the Strait is closed, that can become a stupendous figure."

BIS will only commit, officially, to indicate the total notional amount outstanding for contracts in derivatives markers is an estimated $542.4 trillion. But this is just an estimate.

The banking source adds, "Even here it is the notional that has meaning. Huge amounts are interest rate derivatives. Most are notional but if oil goes to a thousand dollars a barrel, then this will affect interest rates if 45% of the world's GDP is oil. This is what is called in business a contingent liability."

Goldman Sachs has projected a feasible, possible $1,000 a barrel a few weeks after the Strait of Hormuz being shut down. This figure, times 100 million barrels of oil produced per day, leads us to 45% of the $80 trillion global GDP. It's self-evident the world economy would collapse based on just that alone.

War dogs barking mad

As much as 30% of the world's oil supply transits the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Wily Persian Gulf traders – who know better – are virtually unanimous; if Tehran was really responsible for the Gulf of Oman tanker incident, oil prices would be going through the roof by now. They aren't.

Iran's territorial waters in the Strait of Hormuz amount to 12 nautical miles (22 km). Since 1959, Iran recognizes only non-military naval transit.

Since 1972, Oman's territorial waters in the Strait of Hormuz also amount to 12 nautical miles. At its narrowest, the width of the Strait is 21 nautical miles (39 km). That means, crucially, that half of the Strait of Hormuz is in Iranian territorial waters, and the other half in Oman's. There are no "international waters".

And that adds to Tehran now openly saying that Iran may decide to close the Strait of Hormuz publicly – and not by stealth.

Iran's indirect, asymmetric warfare response to any US adventure will be very painful. Prof. Mohammad Marandi of the University of Tehran once again reconfirmed, "even a limited strike will be met by a major and disproportionate response." And that means gloves off, big time; anything from really blowing up tankers to, in Marandi's words, "Saudi and UAE oil facilities in flames".

Hezbollah will launch tens of thousands of missiles against Israel. As

Hezbollah's secretary-general Hasan Nasrallah has been stressing in his speeches, "war on Iran will not remain within that country's borders, rather it will mean that the entire [Middle East] region will be set ablaze. All of the American forces and interests in the region will be wiped out, and with them the conspirators, first among them Israel and the Saudi ruling family."

It's quite enlightening to pay close attention to what this Israel intel op is saying . The dogs of war though are barking mad .

Earlier this week, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo jetted to CENTCOM in Tampa to discuss "regional security concerns and ongoing operations" with – skeptical – generals, a euphemism for "maxim pressure" eventually leading to war on Iran.

Iranian diplomacy, discreetly, has already informed the EU – and the Swiss – about their ability to crash the entire world economy. But still that was not enough to remove US sanctions.

War zone in effect

As it stands in Trumpland, former CIA Mike "We lied, We cheated, We stole" Pompeo – America's "top diplomat" – is virtually running the Pentagon. "Acting" secretary Shanahan performed self-immolation. Pompeo continues to actively sell the notion the "intelligence community is convinced" Iran is responsible for the Gulf of Oman tanker incident. Washington is ablaze with rumors of an ominous double bill in the near future; Pompeo as head of the Pentagon and Psycho John Bolton as Secretary of State. That would spell out War.

Yet even before sparks start to fly, Iran could declare that the Persian Gulf is in a state of war; declare that the Strait of Hormuz is a war zone; and then ban all "hostile" military and civilian traffic in its half of the Strait. Without firing a single shot, no shipping company on the planet would have oil tankers transiting the Persian Gulf.


Justsaying , says: June 23, 2019 at 5:23 am GMT

American government arrogance under the control of sickos has not shied away from the belief that destroying countries that do not cave in to Washington's demand of "surrender or perish" -- an ultimatum made in Israel. Indeed it regards that despicable policy as an entitlement – to protect the "international community". Iran may well be the nation that will do away with the nations of turbaned lapdogs and absolute monarchs who have been kept in power by the dozens of US military bases in the area. Maybe a serious jolt of the global economy is long overdue, to bring the Washington dogs of perpetual war to come to their senses.

Was Iran succumbing to the JCPOA provisions and abiding by them not sufficient capitulation for the insane leaders in Washington?

Realist , says: June 23, 2019 at 9:55 am GMT
@joeshittheragman

I hope we don't go into another stupid war. Bring all our troops home from all around the world. Just protect this Republic. We're not the policemen of the world.

The Deep State would never allow that to happen.

alexander , says: June 23, 2019 at 10:56 am GMT
@joeshittheragman It astonishes me that people are still using the phrase "policemen of the world" to define US behavior.

The last time I recall The US even remotely acting as the "worlds's policeman" was in 1991, when we pushed Saddam out of Kuwait.

The Iraq 2003 "debacle", the Libya"shit show" and the Syria" fiasco" have all proven, over time, to be acts of wanton carnage and illegal aggression, . not "police work".

The United States, under Neocon tutelage , is no "policeman" .not by any stretch

It is more like a humongous version of "Bernie Madoff meets Son of Sam."

We have become a grotesque, misshapen empire .of lies fraud .,illegal war, .mass murder ..and heinous f#cking debt.

Policeman ?!? Hahaha.ha ..

RoatanBill , says: June 23, 2019 at 12:32 pm GMT
You have to hand it to the Iranians for basically announcing their intentions to destroy the US economy via the derivatives market that the US financial industry largely produced. Kill them with their own weapon.

A show down between the US and some entity is inevitable. Be it Iran, China or Russia, the US will be over extended and their very expensive weaponry will, I believe, come up wanting on all counts. The MIC has been scamming the country for decades. The military brass is just bluster. When it comes down to an actual confrontation, the US military will come up short as BS won't cut it.

Yes, they will destroy lots of stuff and kill lots of people but then their toys will run out and then what? Missiles will take out the aircraft carriers and the world will see that the emperor is naked.

Sean , says: June 23, 2019 at 12:39 pm GMT
@Parisian Guy America is backed by brute military force. That is why India has stopped buying Iranian oil, and sent ships to the Gulf to back America

http://www.aei.org/publication/iran-the-contrast-between-sovereignty-and-moral-legitimacy/

In June of 2014, as the forces of the Islamic State swept toward Baghdad, President Barack Obama began to recommit American military forces to Iraq. He also observed that "Iran can play a constructive role, if it sends the same message to the Iraqi government that we're sending, which is that Iraq only holds together if it is inclusive." In an instantly famous article by Atlantic magazine correspondent and White House amanuensis Jeffrey Goldberg, Obama indicated that Saudi Arabia and other Arab states had to learn to "share" the Middle East with Iran.

In imagining a kind of strategic partnership with Tehran, Obama is recycling a deeply held belief of late-Cold War "realists" like former National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft. "For U.S. strategy, Iran should be viewed as a potential natural partner in the region, as it was until 1979," when Shah Reza Pahlavi was toppled in the Khomeini revolution." "Envisioning 2030: U.S. Strategy for a Post-Western World," foresaw that "a post-Mullah dominated government shedding Shia political ideology could easily return to being a net contributor to stability by 2030

https://en.mehrnews.com/news/143606/Mearsheimer-S-Arabia-a-threat-not-Iran
"The truth is that it is the United States that is a direct threat to Iran, not the other way around. The Trump administration, with much prompting from Israel and Saudi Arabia, has its gunsights on Iran. The aim is regime change.

America does not seem to think the Iranian regieme can do anything except bluster as they are slowly smothered.

eah , says: June 23, 2019 at 1:07 pm GMT
@Parisian Guy I can't buy the derivatives stuff.

Famous last words -- review what Bernanke said just before subprime exploded: 2007 -- Bernanke: Subprime Mortgage Woes Won't Seriously Hurt Economy -- that said, I have no idea what will happen if Iran decides to interfere with shipping in the straits -- or how likely that is.

The biggest long-term threat to the US is the end of the petrodollar scheme -- due to its unmatched worldwide political and military hegemony, and 'safe haven' status, the dollar has largely been insulated from the consequences of what are in reality staggering, almost structural (at this point) US deficits -- but that can't and won't go on forever.

Jason Liu , says: June 23, 2019 at 1:13 pm GMT
Russia and China need to set up global deterrence against interventionism by western democracies.
eah , says: June 23, 2019 at 1:37 pm GMT
In 2018, U.S. net imports (imports minus exports) of petroleum from foreign countries averaged about 2.34 million barrels per day, equal to about 11% of U.S. petroleum consumption. This was the lowest percentage since 1957.

In reality, the US is today far less dependent on imported oil than most people probably imagine, and therefore far less vulnerable to any import supply issue.

DESERT FOX , says: June 23, 2019 at 2:07 pm GMT
Israel and the zio/US has interfered in Iran since the 1953 CIA/Mossad coup and at intervals ever since then and have brought this problem on by the zio/US and Israeli meddling in the affairs of Iran and an all out war via illegal sanctions which in fact are a form of war.

Iran has not started a war in over 300 years and is not the problem , the problem is the warmongers in the zio/US and Israel and will not end as long as the warmongers remain in power.

A good start to ending these problems would be to abolish the CIA!

Mike P , says: June 23, 2019 at 3:05 pm GMT
@MLK Yes, the sanctions on Iran are having an effect, and the recent Iranian actions acknowledge this; but that does not mean Iran is weak. Iran is telling the U.S. that it is NOT Venezuela or North Korea. Kim is all bark, but no bite; Trump was quite right to call him "little rocket man." Even he, with his singular lack of style and grace, is not doing this to the Iranian leadership.

The economic sanctions against Iran already constitute acts of war. The Iranians have just demonstrated that they can disrupt oil flow from the Middle East in retaliation, and not just in the Street of Hormuz. In addition, they have now shown that they can take down American aircraft, stealth or not, with precision. This means Iran is able and willing to strike back and escalate as it sees fit, both economically and militarily. If the U.S. don't relent, Iran WILL send the oil prices through the roof, and it will humiliate the U.S. on the world stage if they are stupid enough to go to war over it.

The Iranian messages are simple, clear, and consistent. Compare this to the confused cacophony that emerges from the clown troupe in Washington, and you can easily tell which side has been caught unawares by recent events.

This is a watershed moment for Trump – he will either assert himself, return to reason, and keep the peace; or he will stay aboard the sinking ship. No good options for him personally, of course; his choices are impeachment, assassination, or staying in office while presiding over the final act of the U.S. empire.

Johnny Walker Read , says: June 23, 2019 at 4:06 pm GMT
@Zumbuddi Let us never forget the "babies thrown from incubators" propaganda to help get it all started.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/WkRylMGLPMU?feature=oembed

Andrei Martyanov , says: Website June 23, 2019 at 4:40 pm GMT
@Agent76

The US is committed to conflict not only most obviously against Iran, but also with Russia.

US, or rather a bunch of lunatics infesting Trump's Admin, might be committed, but it absolutely doesn't mean that the US has resources for that. In fact, US doesn't have resources to fight Iran, let alone Russia. By now most of it is nothing more than chest-thumping and posturing. Today Bolton's statement is a further proof of that.

denk , says: June 23, 2019 at 4:47 pm GMT

Instead, Bush saw that situation, within the unique moment of US no longer constrained by a rival superpower, as an opportunity to exert US global dominance.

The much derided Chomsky

There were once two gangsters in town, the USA and USSR, there's relative peace cuz each was constrained by the rival's threat.
NOW that the USSR is gone, the remaining gangster
is running amok with total impunity.

Now I dunno if the USSR was a 'gangster' ,
as for uncle scam, .. needs no introduction I presume ?

anon [356] Disclaimer , says: June 23, 2019 at 7:34 pm GMT
@peterAUS More to this downing .

"Iran's ability to target and destroy the high-altitude American drone, which was developed to evade the very surface-to-air missiles used to bring it down, surprised some Defense Department officials, who interpreted it as a show of how difficult Tehran can make things for the United States as it deploys more troops and steps up surveillance in the region.– "

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/20/world/middleeast/iran-us-drone.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

The Alarmist , says: June 23, 2019 at 8:49 pm GMT
@Wally It's all cashflow and OPM, on the hope of hitting the big-time when prices spike. A giant house of cards waiting to implode, and that is before one takes into account all the hugely negative externalities associated with fracking that give it any hope of profitability, which would vapourise if the costs of the externalities were charged to the operators.

https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/will-fracking-industry-debts-set-off-financial-tremors/

https://energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/CGEPReserveBaseLendingAndTheO

anon [770] Disclaimer , says: June 23, 2019 at 9:04 pm GMT
@Curmudgeon Fact:

According to preliminary data for 2018, oil demand surpassed 20 mmb/d for the first time since 2007 and will be just shy of the 2005 peak (20,524 mb/d versus 20,802 mb/d in 2005).

U.S. Oil Demand Recovers | CSIS | January 29, 2019
https://www.csis.org/analysis/us-oil-demand-recovers

Fact:


Source: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php

Cyrano , says: June 23, 2019 at 9:25 pm GMT
It's really tragic to see two brotherly ideologies Capitalism and Islam (both want to rule the world) go at each other throats in this manner. After all, they have fought shoulder to shoulder a holly jihad against socialism in such far flung places as Afghanistan, Iraq and now Syria.

I think that based on this latest conflict, people can see what a principled country US is. People used to think that US hates only socialist revolutions. Until Iran's Islamic revolution came along – and US was against it too. So, it's safe to say that US are against ANY revolutions – be they Socialist or Islamic. I guess we can call them contra-revolutionaries.

Simply Simon , says: June 23, 2019 at 9:38 pm GMT
At least 95% of the American people do not want war with Iran. For that matter the same percentage did not want war with Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam or Korea. But the powers that be do not ask the American people if they want to go to war, they just do it based on the authority they assume is theirs. Meanwhile, our elected representatives who do have the authority to start or prevent wars turn a deaf ear to their constituents because the voices they hear in protest are weak or muted. Let's face it, the wars since WWII have affected only a relatively minor segment of our population. A hell of a lot more people die in traffic accidents than on the battlefield so what's to get excited about. Keeping a large standing army, navy and air force is good for the economy, the troops have to be provided the latest best of everything and as for the troops themselves for many it's not a bad way to make a living with a retirement and health care system better than many jobs in the civilian sector. So my message to the American people is if you really do not want war with Iran you had better speak up louder than you are now.
anon [356] Disclaimer , says: June 23, 2019 at 9:40 pm GMT
CAN IRAN ENTER ITO NEGOTIATION WITH IRAN? IT CANT. BECAUSE ISRAEL WITH NO FOOT IN THE DOOR OF THE HELL IS WAGING THE WAR AND GETTING US PUNISHED .

UC Berkeley journalism professor Sandy Tolan, Los Angeles Times, December 1, 2002– [Richard] Perle, in the same 1998 article, told Forward that a coalition of pro-Israeli groups was 'at the forefront with the legislation with regard to Iran. One can only speculate what it might accomplish if it decided to focus its attention on Saddam Hussein.' Now, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has joined the call against Tehran, arguing in a November interview with the Times of London that the U.S. should shift its focus to Iran 'the day after' the Iraq war ends

[Hide MORE]
-- -- -
They want to foment revolution in Iran and use that to isolate and possibly attack Syria in [Lebanon's] Bekaa Valley, and force Syria out," says former Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs Edward S. Walker, now president of the Middle East Institute. http://prospect.org/article/just-beginning
03/14/03
--

in 2003 Morris Amitay and fellow neocon Michael Ledeen founded the Coalition for Democracy in Iran, an advocacy group pushing for regime change in Iran . According to the website, it will be un-American,immoral and unproductive to engage with any segment of the regime .
During a may 2003 conference at the AEI on the future of Iran,Amitay sharply criticized the U.S State Department's efforts to engage the Islamic Republic ,claimed the criticism of Newt Gingrich did not go far enough . Amiaty was introduced by M Ledeen as the "Godfather" of AIPAC Amitay admitted that direct action against Iran would be difficult before 2004 election.

Nostalgia for the last shah's son, Reza Pahlavi ? has again risen," says Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former CIA officer who, like Ledeen and Perle, is ensconced at the AEI. "We must be prepared, however, to take the battle more directly to the mullahs," says Gerecht, adding that the United States must consider strikes at both Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps and allies in Lebanon. "In fact, we have only two meaningful options: Confront clerical Iran and its proxies militarily or ring it with an oil embargo." http://prospect.org/article/just-beginning March 14,2003

"Neoconservatives in the Bush Administration have long targeted Iran. Richard Perle, former Defense Policy Board member, and David Frum, of the neo-com Weekly Standard, co-authored "An End to Evil," which calls for the overthrow of the "terrorist mullahs of Iran." Michael Ladeen of the influential American Enterprise Institute argues that "Tehran is a city just waiting for us." http://www.counterpunch.org/2004/05/26/the-oil-connection/

According to the 2016 documentary Zero Days by director Alex Gibney, Israel's incessant public threats to attack Iran coupled with intense secret demands for cyber warfare targeting Iran were the catalyst for massive new US black budget spending

NSA Director (1999-2005) and CIA Director (2006-2009) Michael Hayden claimed in Zero Days that the goal of any Israeli air attack against Iran's nuclear facilities would be to drag the United States into war.
"Our belief was that if they [Israel] went on their own, knowing the limitations No, they're a very good air force, alright? But it's small and the distances are great, and the targets dispersed and hardened, alright? If they would have attempted a raid on a military plane, we would have been assuming that they were assuming we would finish that which they started. In other words, there would be many of us in government thinking that the purpose of the raid wasn't to destroy the Iranian nuclear system, but the purpose of the raid was to put us [the United States] at war with Iran." https://original.antiwar.com/smith-grant/2018/11/06/israel-and-the-trillion-dollar-2005-2018-us-intelligence-budget

KA , says: June 23, 2019 at 9:47 pm GMT
Emergence of ISIS is linked to US efforts to weaken Iran

-In "The Redirection", written in 2008(!) – years before the 2011 uprising, Seymour Hersh wrote of plans to use extremists in Syria.
Excerpts:
To undermine Iran, which is predominantly Shiite, the Bush Administration has decided, in effect, to reconfigure its priorities in the Middle East. In Lebanon, the Administration has coöperated with Saudi Arabia's government, which is Sunni, in clandestine operations that are intended to weaken Hezbollah, the Shiite organization that is backed by Iran. The U.S. has also taken part in clandestine operations aimed at Iran and its ally Syria. A by-product of these activities has been the bolstering of Sunni extremist groups that espouse a militant vision of Islam and are hostile to America and sympathetic to Al Qaeda.
Nasr compared the current situation to the period in which Al Qaeda first emerged. In the nineteen-eighties and the early nineties, the Saudi government offered to subsidize the covert American C.I.A. proxy war against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. Hundreds of young Saudis were sent into the border areas of Pakistan, where they set up religious schools, training bases, and recruiting facilities. Then, as now, many of the operatives who were paid with Saudi money were Salafis. Among them, of course, were Osama bin Laden and his associates, who founded Al Qaeda, in 1988.
This time, "

Monty Ahwazi , says: June 23, 2019 at 10:00 pm GMT
@Simply Simon In the old days, the orders for the US government were coming down from the Tri-Lateral Commission and the 6-7 major companies. Rockefeller took the TLC underground ground with himself. The oil companies continue asking the US government for protecting the ME/NA resources. Then Neocons replaced the TLC which their focus was twofold.
1. Destabilize the regions for protecting Israel
2. Control the resources militarily
3. Keep the Chinese out and cut their access to the resources
Guess what, Chinese have penetrated the regions constructively and quietly. America with its unjustified fucking wars is being hated even more than 1953.
Monty Ahwazi , says: June 23, 2019 at 10:26 pm GMT
@KA Very true! Unfortunately the presidents were misinformed or uninformed about the proxies created by the CIA. The first created to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan manned and financed by the Saudis, recruited by Mossad and intelligence was provided by the CIA. Sound really really good to the Americans since it was free of charge with no loss of life! Then during the Iraq war its neighbor Syria was getting destabilized so the CIA replicated Al-Qaeda and formed a new gang which called themselves ISIS. The function of ISIS was to overthrow Al-Bashar of Syria. The secondary mission for both groups was to bug Iran from its western and eastern front.
Manning both of these groups with Sunnis was the biggest mistake that KSA, Mossad and the CIA made. See the Sunnis are not fighters without sophisticated weapons from the West. On the other Shiites can fight with a sword and empty handed if they have to. They remind me of VC's in Vietnam. The Shiites decimated the ISIS and most of AlQaeda now the US is trying to get credit for that but they know better now. So my recommendation to the US is please don't aggravate the Shiites otherwise they will embarrass us just the VC's
Avery , says: June 23, 2019 at 10:48 pm GMT
@Monty Ahwazi { All insurance companies will drop their coverage of the oil tankers immediately.}

During the Iran-Iraq war, US re-flagged Kuwaiti tankers and ran them under US flag and protection through the straight.
Same thing can be done again.

And if insurance companies drop coverage, US Treasury will provide the coverage: some US insurance company will be "convinced" by US Gov to provide the coverage and US Treasury will guarantee _any_ losses incurred by the insurance company or companies.
US can always add to the national debt ( .i.e. print more dollars).

So, no: declaration won't do.
Only destroying stuff works.

{You guys sitting here and making up these nonsensical policies}

Nobody is making policy here: we are not a government.
We are exchanging opinions.

btw: where are you sitting?
Are your personal opinions considered 'policy', because you are ..what?

RobinG , says: June 23, 2019 at 11:01 pm GMT
@anon That was buried deep in the article. (Thanks for posting link.) Next lines, the NYT is skeptical of US claims. Too bad this isn't first pararaphs!)

Lt. Gen. Joseph Guastella, the Air Force commander for the Central Command region in the Middle East, said the attack could have endangered "innocent civilians," even though officials at Central Command continued to assert that the drone was over international waters. He said that the closest that the drone got to the Iranian coast was 21 miles.

Late Thursday, the Defense Department released additional imagery in an email to support its case that the drone never entered Iranian airspace. But the department incorrectly called the flight path of the drone the location of the shooting down and offered little context for an image that appeared to be the drone exploding in midair.

It was the latest attempt by the Pentagon to try to prove that Iran has been the aggressor in a series of international incidents.

RobinG , says: June 23, 2019 at 11:16 pm GMT
@Zumbuddi Thank you. If the US were a real [HONEST] policeman, they would have stopped Kuwait from stealing Iraqi oil. But no, Bush was a dirty cop, on the take.
Robjil , says: June 24, 2019 at 12:09 am GMT
@dearieme Read "JFK and the Unspeakable" by James W. Douglass. JFK was getting us out of Vietnam. In his time, there was not massive amounts of US troops in Vietnam, only advisors. JFK planned to get all the troops out after he was re-elected.

It was during Johnson's presidency that the Vietnam war became a huge war for the US. Johnson set up the Gulf of Tonkin false flag on August 2 1964. This started the huge draft of young men for Vietnam war that dragged on till the early 1970s.

Johnson also allowed Israel to do a false flag on the US on June 8 1967. Israel attacked the USS Liberty. 34 servicemen killed and 174 injured. Israel wanted to kill them all and blame it on Egypt, so US would nuke Egypt. Lovely nation is little Israel. The song " Love is all you need" by the Beatles was released on June 7 1967. Summer of Love, Hippies in San Francisco, all planned to get Americans into drugs and forget about what Israel is doing in the Middle East. It worked, nobody noticed what Israel did since we have a "free" 500 Zion BC press in the US in 1967 and we still do these days.

Pft , says: June 24, 2019 at 12:12 am GMT
Iran is pretty self sufficient with minimal foreign debt. Their Central Bank is under their control and works for the people. They should just hunker down and hope Trumps crew is out of a job after the elections next year

If the US strikes they can block the straits. However, the US would probably knock out the refineries so that will hurt

They shot down the drone because it was collecting intelligence on targets the US plans to strike. Thats defensive not provocative

If the US wants to go at Iran they will manufacture something. People are so dumbed down they can made to believe anything, as events 18 years ago and since have proven

Hopefully this is just distraction to cover up some nefarious plan to loot the working class some more. Or maybe getting the straits closed is part of the plan. Who knows?

renfro , says: June 24, 2019 at 12:46 am GMT
this might be the real story

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2019/06/22/why-trump-didnt-bomb-iran-449575

THE TICK TOCKS WHY TRUMP DIDN'T BOMB IRAN NYT'S PETER BAKER, MAGGIE HABERMAN and THOMAS GIBBONS-NEFF:

"Urged to Launch an Attack, Trump Listened to the Skeptics Who Said It Would Be a Costly Mistake": "He heard from his generals and his diplomats. Lawmakers weighed in and so did his advisers. But among the voices that rang powerfully for President Trump was that of one of his favorite Fox News hosts: Tucker Carlson.
"While national security advisers were urging a military strike against Iran, Mr. Carlson in recent days had told Mr. Trump that responding to Tehran's provocations with force was crazy. The hawks did not have the president's best interests at heart, he said. And if Mr. Trump got into a war with Iran, he could kiss his chances of re-election goodbye.

"The 150-dead casualty estimate came not from a general but from a lawyer, according to the official. The estimate was developed by Pentagon lawyers drafting worst-case scenarios that, the official said, did not account for whether the strike was carried out during daytime, when more people might be present at the targets, or in the dark hours before sunrise, as the military planned.
"That estimate was passed to the White House counsel, Pat A. Cipollone, without being cleared with [Patrick] Shanahan or General [Joseph] Dunford. It was then conveyed to the president by the White House lawyers, at which point Mr. Trump changed his mind and called off the strike." NYT NYT A1
"That estimate was passed to the White House counsel, Pat A. Cipollone, without being cleared with [Patrick] Shanahan or General [Joseph] Dunford. It was then conveyed to the president by the White House lawyers, at which point Mr. Trump changed his mind and called off the strike." NYT NYT A1

Iris , says: June 24, 2019 at 12:48 am GMT

Saddam was given plenty of time, and plenty of resolutions to pack up his troops and go home

.

Saddam was given the assurance by US ambassador to Iraq April Glaspie, that the USA supported his retaliatory action against Kuwait. Same usual trap and deliberate provocation; all the rest is obfuscation.

Thorfinnsson , says: June 24, 2019 at 12:52 am GMT
@AnonFromTN The loss of two American aircraft carriers appears to be the assumption you are making to guarantee an Iranian victory.

Such a loss is by no means assured.

The idea that American willpower will collapse in the event of the loss of two capital ships is your second assumption, and it's both a fanciful and dangerous assumption.

I'm not myself terribly impressed by American military power, but comparing naval combat to counterinsurgency operations is absurd.

Your economic assumptions appear to come from the permabear school. Actual economies and governments don't work that way. A major reduction in global supplies will result in compulsory conservation, rationing, price controls, etc. This was done in recent memory in the 1970s in both North America and Western Europe, when you were still behind the Iron Curtain and perhaps not aware.

Thorfinnsson , says: June 24, 2019 at 12:53 am GMT
@peterAUS Do you have any actual numbers?

Does anyone?

anon [284] Disclaimer , says: June 24, 2019 at 12:57 am GMT
@alexander Saddam was given plenty of time, and plenty of resolutions to pack up his troops and go home."

Efforts by Egypt to arrive an Arab initiated solution was ignored and dismissed by USA

Initial Saudi effort to find a face saving exit by Saddam was met with resistance and then a manufactured satellite image of Saddam massing his soldiers for invasion of Saudi was widely disseminated by US.

Saddam crimes was no less or more egregious than what Israel was enjoying with US dollars and with US support and with impunity ( It was still occupying Pastien and Parts of Syria and Lebanon )

It was Levy the Israeli FM who threatened that his country would attack Iraq if US did not.

War against Saddam was orchestrated by Jewish members of Thatcher and by Democrats of USA ) Solarz – NY Senator was one of the guys and the AIPAC whose president Mr. Dine confessed the crimes )

neprof , says: June 24, 2019 at 1:06 am GMT
@Robjil

Read "JFK and the Unspeakable" by James W. Douglass.

Should be required reading by all Americans.

anon [284] Disclaimer , says: June 24, 2019 at 1:08 am GMT
@alexander UN has been abused by USA taking the advantage of the collapse of Soviet . (This is what Wolf0owitz told Wesley Clarke in 1992 in Feb : This was the time we can and we should take care of these countries Iran Iraq Syria Libya and Yemen while Russia is still weakened and unable to help its erstwhile vassals states) .

USA had no right to ask Saddam to leave . Subsequent behaviors of USA has proved it.
Israel also in addition has no right to exist .

If correction had to come from Iran Hezbollah and Syria- then so be it. That news would be best thing that would happen to humanity within last 200 yrs .

KA , says: June 24, 2019 at 1:11 am GMT
@Robjil Wolfowitz has been trying to kill Saddam and dismember Iraq from 1979.

The rat got his hand the Cookie jar after Soviet collapsed.

( Ref- Sunshine Warrior NYT )

John Noughty , says: June 24, 2019 at 1:14 am GMT
@Jim Christian I hope you're right.
RobinG , says: June 24, 2019 at 1:16 am GMT
@alexander You're begging for a big "So What?"

There are UN resolutions about all kinds of things. Israel comes first to mind, of course. UN resolutions do not obligate military action.

anon [400] Disclaimer , says: June 24, 2019 at 1:20 am GMT
@Iris but -- but -- but (sputters Alexander the otherwise sage commenter), The UN -- that's the U-nited Nations!! fer pete's ache, Agreed!! ( Agreed is Diplomatese for: "Please stop twisting my arm; Please stop bankrupting my country; Please stop threatening to tell my wife -- ).

in other words, the UN is a toy and a ploy for someone like G H W Bush salivating at the once in a lifetime opportunity to exert world dominance -- 'scuse me: "Create a New World Order" -- in the context of a power vacuum / dissolution of the Soviet Empire, previously the only counterbalance to US superpower status.

No doubt the UN was got on board. It acted like the paid-for- judge and show-trial in a case the prosecutor had already rigged.
imho, what is more significant, and what it takes years to unearth, is the decision making and back-room dealing that came BEFORE the UN was induced to stamp its imprimatur.

Tony Blair endorsed Bush the Lesser's war on Iraq. Does that grant it legitimacy, or in any way explain why US waged that war?

peterAUS , says: June 24, 2019 at 1:23 am GMT
@Thorfinnsson

Do you have any actual numbers?

I don't care about numbers.
50 (proper) sea mines backed up by 20 air/land-sea missiles do the job. Block the Hormuz.
I am sure the regime in Tehran has that number.

Does anyone?

Don't think so.
Mines in particular.
While missiles could be tricky to produce even smart sea mines are not.
A lot of explosive-check.
A couple of sensors (acoustic/magnetic)-check.
A couple of hardened micro controller boards-check.
That's it.

In this very game there are, really, only two elements that interest me:
Tactical nukes.
Selective draft.

What hehe really interests me is the escalation from "tactical" to "strategic".

AnonFromTN , says: June 24, 2019 at 1:32 am GMT
@Thorfinnsson Let me make this clear: there won't be Iranian victory. Iran will pay a hefty price. There will be the defeat of the Empire, though, a major climb down. The worst (for the Empire) part would be that the whole world would see that the king has no clothes. Then the backlash against the Empire (hated by 6/7th of the Earth population) starts, and that would be extremely painful for everyone in the US, guilty and innocent alike (myself included).

Compulsory rationing and price controls were possible when the governments actually governed. When the whole governments and legislatures are full of corporations' marionettes, as is the case now in the US and EU, these measures are impossible. Profiteers will have their day. They will crush Western economies and therefore themselves, but never underestimate the blinding force of greed. The same greedy bastards are supplying the US military with airplanes that have trouble flying and with ships costing untold billions that break down in the Panama canal, of all places. The same greedy scum destroyed the US industry and moved all production to China, in effect spelling the doom of the only country that could have protected their loot from other thieves. That's the problem with greed: it makes people incredibly shortsighted.

Sergey Krieger , says: June 24, 2019 at 1:39 am GMT
@joeshittheragman You are parasites on the world neck. That's why your troops are all over the place.
anon [356] Disclaimer , says: June 24, 2019 at 1:48 am GMT
@alexander Is it true . possibly but so what ?

So what? That nice lessons are being imparted slowly to the Israeli slave USA.

USA does what other countries are accused of before invading . USA throws out any qualms any morality any legality . It uses UN . Right now it is illegally supplying arms to Saudi to Israel and to the rebels in Syria. These are the reasons US have gone to wars against other countries for. Now some countries are standing up and saying – those days are gone , you can't attack any country anymore just because someone has been raped or someone has been distributing Viagra.

alexander , says: June 24, 2019 at 1:48 am GMT
@RobinG I think you are right.

And so did George Bush Senior.

As a matter of fact, the whole world began to ask, you are willing to launch your military to eject Saddam from Kuwait Bravo! ..Now what are willing to do about Israels illegal seizure of Palestinian territory in the West bank .It is more or less the exact same crime, Isn't it?

George Bush Senior was the last US President in American History to withhold all loans to Israel, until it ceased and desisted from illegal settlement activity in the Palestinian Territories.

Many believe it was his willingness to hold Israel to the same standard as everyone else, which cost him his second term.

What do you think , Robin?

By-tor , says: June 24, 2019 at 2:02 am GMT
@Thorfinnsson Iran shot down a US Navy RQ-4A intel drone that cost $250: A model that is marketed as being hard to shoot down since it has an 11 mile high altitude ceiling and a long operational range. That a coastal AA missile battery knocked it down with one shot answers several questions.

[Jun 22, 2019] Russia Will Help Iran With Oil, Banking If Europe's SPV Payment Channel Not Launched

Notable quotes:
"... Europe is being clobbered by the USA on multiple fronts - at little cost to the USA: 1- Russian sanctions; 2- Oil - sanctioning Iran raises oil price and risks a blowout of prices; 3- Gas - sanctioning companies working on Russian gas and pipelines ..."
"... It's about the financial derivatives Iran, the derivatives.. The Europeans, even if they desired honesty, are shackled by their financial shenanigans.. One bad move on their part, and the Potemkin contraption collapses, wiping out the western 1%. They're trapped, and unlike before, war is a lose for them and why? ..."
Jun 22, 2019 | www.zerohedge.com

...Russia on Friday announced it was ready to help Iran export its crude and ease restrictions on its banking system if Europe fails to launch its dollar-evading SPV, Instex (Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges) with Tehran, according to Interfax and PressTV .

The three European signatories to the 2015 nuclear agreement, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), unveiled late in January the direct non-dollar payment mechanism meant to safeguard their trade ties with Tehran following the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal and in the face of the "toughest ever" sanctions imposed by the United States against the Islamic Republic. In its initial stage, INSTEX would facilitate trade of humanitarian goods such as medicine, food and medical devices, but it will later be expanded to cover other areas of trade, including Iran's oil sales.

However, it has not resulted in any trade deals so far. In late May, the US threatened Europe with " loss of access to the US financial system " if it rolled out the SWIFT-evading SPV, which appears to have crushed Europe's enthusiasm to pursue alternative financial transactions with Tehran, forcing it to conceded to Washington (again).

Earlier this month, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Abbas Moussavi said European governments have failed to meet their expectations in implementing INSTEX to protect the JCPOA, criticizing their "lack of will" to deal with America's pressure against Tehran.


marcel tjoeng , 4 hours ago link

What this means is, China will have access to a lot cheaper oil than western market prices, including to the hilt subsidized, with colossal hidden losses, US shale oil. Well done Trump. The Tariffs, Americuhns are the ones paying for those as well. Imbeciles.

TigerK , 8 hours ago link

We are seeing a return to "Gun Boat Diplomacy"... Even THAT will not work.. ultimately. Brinkmanship, of this order reveals a Disturbed mind.. the US criminal elite psyche.. Or as Jidu KrishnaMurti said so aptly..The constant assertion of belief is an indication of fear.

The USA continues to publicize its belief.. that it is the viral of democracy.. And leader of the Free World. Hollow words.. which it will be forced to eat.. before too long. That time of confrontation.. is Not Far OFF !! This desperation is that of a deranged mind.. that is going down the tube.. breaking down.. A society in free fall..

Ms No , 10 hours ago link

This is exactly how it will always work out when psychopaths are in charge because normal society doesnt manage them.They come from all backgrounds but some genetic varieties of people seem to have YUGE problems with it. I also believe inbreeding has a role.

ExPat2018 , 11 hours ago link

Necessity is the mother of invention. The USA is helping by making people inventors

Nassim , 12 hours ago link

Europe is being clobbered by the USA on multiple fronts - at little cost to the USA: 1- Russian sanctions; 2- Oil - sanctioning Iran raises oil price and risks a blowout of prices; 3- Gas - sanctioning companies working on Russian gas and pipelines

Mat Cauthon , 13 hours ago link

Of course China will follow. Russia's SPFS is already in planning to be alongside China's CIPS for the Silk Road 2.0.

costa ludus , 13 hours ago link

It's not the actual physical oil Russia is helping Iran with, numbnuts -- it is brokering and facilitating the sale of oil without having the Jewish shysters in London and NY involved - the same reason the Chinese set up their own oil bourse.

SoDamnMad , 12 hours ago link

Costa. People don't understand the system. The Brits bad mouthed Russia over the Novichok false flag incident last winter and jumped on the sanction crap. But they gladly accepted a load of LNG from a Rotterdam energy broker to keep their asses from freezing. It was Yamal LNG from RUSSIA. Brokers take the energy (including world-wide trades) and sell it off taking a small bit from each "barrel"as their profit.

stuvian , 14 hours ago link

To succeed in establishing an alternative to SWIFT there will need to be a critical mass of nations buying in

madashellron , 15 hours ago link

I'm sure the Iranians already know this. The EU is just an extension of US power. They were never serious about allowing the free flow of trade with the Iranians. One must get rid of the EU if a real Peace plan with Iran is to take place. But this will never happen under Trump.

madashellron , 15 hours ago link

Russia to the rescue again, and again and again and again...

Brazen Heist II , 16 hours ago link

European politicians are cucks bribed to the teeth by the evil empire to toe the Zionist line. Europe is all but an emasculated world power. Pathetic. Kick US forces out and take a ******* stand against all this ******** America is stirring on Europe's doorstep. Refugees, terrorism, bad relations with Russia....all thanks to the Anglo Zionists. Europeans keep taking it. The Marshall Plan guilt-trip is working well.

John Hansen , 11 hours ago link

Lets face a fact, the US government has been occupying Europe and Japan militarily since the end of WWII. They aren't so much allies as vassals.

Ms No , 10 hours ago link

True but the Zionist banker noghtmare spread to the US from the British empire, so Europe has been perpetually screwed, thus all the world wars that took place there, etc.

Flash007 , 9 hours ago link

Psychopaths and parasites are "smart" at ******* over others, (((da juice))) are masters at it.

ILikeMeat , 10 hours ago link

Europe is not a power, it is an artificial construction with no real leadership.No military to back its decisions and a bunch of feminists and homos that make up its culturally diverse parliaments. European women act like men and the men act like women. There is no fight left in Europe..

messystateofaffairs , 16 hours ago link

China and Russia need to preserve Iran for the BRI which is the lifeline for everyone who has had a belllyfull of JewSA ********. China and Russia will facilitate Iranian trade and Iranian nuclear ICBM peacemakers will soon follow.

Cassandra.Hermes , 16 hours ago link

Trump is loosing, he scares Europeans and Turks but don't let be fooled, Americans are not allowed near Iranian border of Turkey, why do you think is that restriction?

Wahooo , 13 hours ago link

Because gold and oil are two of Turkey's main exports.

Scipio Africanuz , 16 hours ago link

It's about the financial derivatives Iran, the derivatives.. The Europeans, even if they desired honesty, are shackled by their financial shenanigans.. One bad move on their part, and the Potemkin contraption collapses, wiping out the western 1%. They're trapped, and unlike before, war is a lose for them and why?

Because the kinetic advantage is no longer with them, it's now in the East. Nevertheless, their innocent youth can still be salvaged, provided they desire salvage. No more impunity without retribution, cheers...

Thordoom , 16 hours ago link

So India stop importing Iranian oil in order to buy the same oil from Russia for much more since thy where buying that same oil from Iran at great discount. India looks to Russian crude as Iranian imports crash

https://www.rt.com/business/462396-india-russia-oil-supplies/

SoDamnMad , 12 hours ago link

Trump told Modi he would drop tariffs on Indian IT work unless they towed the line. Modi folded.

alexcojones , 17 hours ago link

Good old Vlad, Mr. Putin being a statesman again.Wish we had some of those in "our" country, said this old US veteran

johand inmywallet , 17 hours ago link

No country will win WWIII, everyone will lose.

Brazen Heist II , 16 hours ago link

Some deluded folks still think they have a first strike advantage. LOL No really, we can win this if you "trust" me.

[Jun 22, 2019] Who Survives The Iran Counter-Offensive

Notable quotes:
"... Trump is right that he can afford to be patient and now re-frame this as him being the magnanimous God-Emperor but what he's really doing is talking capital markets off a cliff. ..."
"... Because that's where the U.S. is the most vulnerable and where Iran's greatest leverage lies. This incident should have sent oil prices far higher than they did if the threat of war was real. ..."
"... Why? Because the markets discounted the U.S.'s stories immediately. There have been so many incidents like this that should have started a war in the past three years which turn out to be bogus that the market reaction was muted, at best. ..."
"... As Pepe Escobar lays out convincingly in his latest article, Iran's threats against global oil shipping aren't aimed at disrupting the global economy per se. There's plenty of oil stored in Strategic Reserves around the world to keep things operating during any U.S. military operation to destroy Iran's navy (which wouldn't take very long) and open the strait to oil traffic. ..."
"... It is that a disruption in the price of oil will force the unwinding of trillions in interest rate swap derivatives already at risk because of the tenuous hold on reality Deutsche Bank has, since DB clears a super-majority of all such derivative contracts for the whole of Europe. ..."
"... Last week I asked whether Trump's "B-Team" overplayed their hand in the Gulf of Oman , staging a potential false flag over some oil tankers to stop peace breaking out and arrest the slide in oil prices. Today everyone wants to think Iran overplayed its hand by attacking this drone. But given the amount mendacity and the motivations of the people involved, I'd say that it was yet another attempt by the enemies of peace to push us to the brink of a world war in which nothing good comes of it. ..."
Jun 22, 2019 | www.zerohedge.com

Authored by Tom Luongo,

Iran has had enough. I think it's fair to say that after 60+ years of U.S. aggression towards Iran that the decision to shoot down a U.S. drone represents an inflection point in world politics.

In the first few hours after the incident the fog of war was thick. But a day later much of it has cleared thanks to Iran's purposeful poke at U.S. leadership by coming clean with their intentions.

Iran chose to shoot down this drone versus hitting the manned P-8 aircraft and then chose not to lie about it in public, but rather come forward removing any deniability they could have had.

me title=

They did this after President Trump's comments yesterday during a news conference with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau where Trump described the attack as "a big mistake" and "not intentional."

But it was intentional.

And the reason for this was that despite Trump's assurances yesterday there is considerable debate as to where the drone actually was. According to a report from the NY Times (and buried deep in a very long article):

Still, there remained doubt inside the United States government over whether the drone, or another American surveillance aircraft, this one flown by a military aircrew, did violate Iranian airspace at some point, according to a senior administration official. The official said the doubt was one of the reasons Mr. Trump called off the strike -- which could under international norms be viewed as an act of war.

The delay by United States Central Command in publicly releasing GPS coordinates of the drone when it was shot down -- hours after Iran did -- and errors in the labeling of the drone's flight path when the imagery was released, contributed to that doubt, officials said.

A lack of provable "hard evidence" about the location of the drone when it was hit, a defense official said, put the administration in an isolated position at what could easily end up being the start of yet another war with a Middle East adversary -- this one with a proven ability to strike back.

This means a couple of things. First, it is likely that Trump was not properly briefed on the issue by his National Security Council, who were pushing him to strike back hard and who are itching to get the U.S. into an armed conflict with Iran.

Framing the attack as a mistake Trump was handing Iran the opportunity to de-escalate things. To me, this signaled that Trump was told through back channels this was an operation designed by us to put Iran in a no-win situation -- either allow encroachment of their airspace or shoot down a drone that would land in international waters.

Moreover, doubts as to the drone's position, remember, with a plane carrying actual ordnance on its wing, put Trump in a real bind.

And he knew it at the presser. That's the way Trump tried to frame this the way he did. Because the implications here are that he is being boxed in on all sides by his administration and his allies -- the Saudis, Israelis and the UAE -- and frogmarched to a war he doesn't want.

He wants Iran to heel but he doesn't know how to go about it.

That Iran then chose the next day to openly declare that they were not confused or misled and knew exactly what they were doing puts Trump in an even worse position.

Because an unmanned drone, as he said in his futile tweetstorm, is not worth going to war over, especially one whose position in in dispute.

And everyone knows it. Europe wouldn't condemn Iran here. No one did. Only the U.S. And that silence is deafening as Pompeo, Bolton and Haspel again over-extend themselves.

Trump is right that he can afford to be patient and now re-frame this as him being the magnanimous God-Emperor but what he's really doing is talking capital markets off a cliff.

Because that's where the U.S. is the most vulnerable and where Iran's greatest leverage lies. This incident should have sent oil prices far higher than they did if the threat of war was real.

Why? Because the markets discounted the U.S.'s stories immediately. There have been so many incidents like this that should have started a war in the past three years which turn out to be bogus that the market reaction was muted, at best.

It also tells you just how quickly the global economy is slowing down if a major military incident between Iran and the U.S. near the Strait of Hormuz only pushed the price of Brent Crude up to fill the gap on the weekly chart and confirm the recent low.

... ... ...

As Pepe Escobar lays out convincingly in his latest article, Iran's threats against global oil shipping aren't aimed at disrupting the global economy per se. There's plenty of oil stored in Strategic Reserves around the world to keep things operating during any U.S. military operation to destroy Iran's navy (which wouldn't take very long) and open the strait to oil traffic.

It is that a disruption in the price of oil will force the unwinding of trillions in interest rate swap derivatives already at risk because of the tenuous hold on reality Deutsche Bank has, since DB clears a super-majority of all such derivative contracts for the whole of Europe.

No one wants to see $300 per barrel oil. That Goldman Sachs is posting potential targets of $1000 per barrel tells you where they are positioning themselves, as if they know something? Goldman? Have insider knowledge?

Please! It is to laugh.

What we are looking at here is the ultimate game of brinkmanship. Trump is saying his maximum pressure campaign will break Iran in the end and if they go one step further (which they won't directly) he will eliminate them.

Iran, on the other hand, is stating categorically that if Trump doesn't allow Iran to trade than no one will. And that threat is a real one, given their regional influence. Incalculable financial and political damage can be done by Iran and its proxies around the region through attacks on oil and gas infrastructure. Governments will fall, markets will collapse. And no one gets out without scars.

It's the kind of stand-off that needs to end with everyone walking away and regrouping but is unlikely to do so because of entrenched interests on both sides and the historical grudges of the men involved.

What's important is to know that the rules of the game have changed. Iran has taken all the punches to the nose it will take from Trump without retaliating. When you corner someone and give them no way out you invite the worst kind of counter-attack.

Last week I asked whether Trump's "B-Team" overplayed their hand in the Gulf of Oman , staging a potential false flag over some oil tankers to stop peace breaking out and arrest the slide in oil prices. Today everyone wants to think Iran overplayed its hand by attacking this drone. But given the amount mendacity and the motivations of the people involved, I'd say that it was yet another attempt by the enemies of peace to push us to the brink of a world war in which nothing good comes of it.

I give Trump a lot of credit here for not falling into the trap set for him. He now has to begin removing those responsible for this quagmire and I'm sure that will be on the docket when he meets with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping next week at the G-20.

It starts with John Bolton and it ends with Mike Pompeo.

And if he doesn't replace them in the next six to eight weeks then we know Trump isn't serious about keeping us out of war. He's just interested in doing so until he gets re-elected

[Jun 22, 2019] Rates for transporting 2 million-barrel cargoes from Saudi Arabia to China jumped to almost $26,000 a day on Thursday, more than double where they were at the start of June, according to Baltic Exchange in London."

Jun 22, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

Krollchem , Jun 21, 2019 6:39:47 PM | 190

c1ue@69

US threats and the drone shoot down did effect oil shipments from the gulf:

"Insurance rates also soared after those incidents, with companies charging at least $180,000 in premiums to go to the Persian Gulf. They were about $30,000 early this year before tensions began to escalate."

As a result:

"Oil tanker owners are raising the prices they charge to export Middle East crude as tensions surge in a region that accounts for about a third of all seaborne petroleum shipments."

Rates for transporting 2 million-barrel cargoes from Saudi Arabia to China jumped to almost $26,000 a day on Thursday, more than double where they were at the start of June, according to Baltic Exchange in London."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-21/middle-east-oil-shipping-rates-surge-as-owners-fret-about-iran

Meanwhile, the punishing sanctions on Iran has been crafted and applied by an Israeli immigrant to the United States named Sigal Mandelker who is the Israeli-American dual national who runs the Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence (TFI) at the Dept. of the Treasury.

c1ue , Jun 21, 2019 7:16:05 PM | 199

@Krollchem #190

$150,000 in increased insurance costs on a 2 million bpd tanker = very tiny increase in oil cost. It isn't nothing, but the primary issue is availability...

[Jun 22, 2019] China's Top Providers of Imported Crude Oil

Jun 22, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

Oscar Peterson , Jun 21, 2019 3:04:38 PM | 135

China's Top Providers of Imported Crude Oil
Below are the top 15 countries that supplied 90.6% of the crude oil imported into China during 2018.

Russia: US$37.9 billion (15.8% of China's total imported crude)
Saudi Arabia: $29.7 billion (12.4%)
Angola: $24.9 billion (10.4%)
Iraq: $22.4 billion (9.4%)
Oman: $17.3 billion (7.2%)
Brazil: $16.2 billion (6.8%)
Iran: $15 billion (6.3%)
Kuwait: $11.9 billion (5%)
Venezuela: $7 billion (2.9%)
United States: $6.8 billion (2.8%)
United Arab Emirates: $6.7 billion (2.8%)
Congo: $6.4 billion (2.7%)
Colombia: $5 billion (2.1%)
Malaysia: $4.8 billion (2%)
Libya: $4.7 billion (2%)

Together, five of China's leading crude petroleum suppliers (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Angola, Iraq plus Oman) represent over half (55.2%) of overall Chinese crude oil imports for 2018.

China's top 10 crude petroleum providers supply almost four-fifths (79%) of its imported crude oil.
Fastest-Growing Suppliers of China's Imported Crude Oil
The value of Chinese purchases of crude oil from its 15 top suppliers amounted to a subtotal $216.7 billion in 2018, up by an average 50.7% from the $143.8 billion worth of imported crude from those same 15 providers during 2017.

Libya: Up 248.1% since 2017
United States: Up 112.8%
Malaysia: Up 79.9%
Congo: Up 76.7%
Brazil: Up 76.6%
Kuwait: Up 67.8%
Iraq: Up 62.3%
United Arab Emirates: Up 60.8%
Russia: Up 58.6%
Colombia: Up 50.6%
Saudi Arabia: Up 44.6%
Oman: Up 40%
Iran: Up 25.8%
Angola: Up 23.6%
Venezuela: Up 6.2%

[Jun 21, 2019] If oil ships stop transiting for any reason the western economic and banking system implodes as the notional value of all those trillions in derivatives (oil at least) become real once the price rise

Notable quotes:
"... iran and oman share the straits as they enter the indian ocean. these waters are THEIR territorial waters and have been agreed upon for decades by the world. 12 miles give or take for each side. there are NO international waters here. ..."
"... It would appear the Iranians tracked our drone essentially from time time of departure until its demise. The folks on the web would have us believe the Iranians used a $2,500 homemade missile to bring down a $120,000,000 drone. Let that soak in. Am I the only one wondering what else we are unaware? ..."
"... Iran's Air Defense Force has some really quirky own designed and manufactured, mostly Chinese and Russian knock-offs) air defense complexes with serious sensors. ..."
"... Rumor has it--Iran has a number of Yakhonts. Those are very bad news for anything on the surface in Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. ..."
Jun 21, 2019 | turcopolier.typepad.com

ted richard ,

iran and oman share the straits as they enter the indian ocean. these waters are THEIR territorial waters and have been agreed upon for decades by the world. 12 miles give or take for each side. there are NO international waters here.

if oil ships stop transiting for any reason the western economic and banking system implodes as the notional value of all those trillions in derivatives (oil at least) become real once the price rises. not a shot need be fired to collapse the western world living standards and there is nothing the pentagon can do about even IF it could which it CAN'T.

peace is the only sane option IF the west wants to remain upright and obstensibly solvent.

ignore fools like bolton and pompeo.

fredw , 21 June 2019 at 07:08 AM
The Trump administration has to come up with an explanation for this. Otherwise everyone will believe that that the red phone rang. "Mr. Putin on the line, sir." Another ripe conspiracy theory waiting in the wings is that Iran turned on some unexpected radar and showed just what the planes were flying into. Some logical, plausible, and not too embarassing alternative story is needed. Fast.
jon stanley , 21 June 2019 at 07:25 AM
Let us hope Trump's alleged caution holds. For the moment, anyway. However, let us also hope wiser heads prevail in Iran. It seems clear to me (which I do not mistake for assuming I am automatically correct) that there has been a PATTERN of increased, violent actions coming from Iran. i.e. increased shelling of US positions, or, near them, anyway, in Iraq. Along with the tanker attacks and drone attacks, two, I might add. These seem calculated, at the moment, at avoiding US loss of life. So, they are playing around with us, testing us. This reflects, to me, ONE kind of thinking in Iran. However, there are other sides there, I believe.

And in the meantime Trump is, essentially, bereft of support within DC. Unless it be in the military. One side of the elite community hates Trump, but for the moment, goes along with him. Trying to push and prod him forward to their ends. The NeoCons and Never Trumpers. The other side basically loathes Trump and opposes whatever position he is taking. Reflectively. Thoughtlessly. This leaves him essentially alone. IN DC. He should get out of the Capital more often. To his Base. Away from the talking heads. In the meantime Iran should give pause for thought. They may think the world will be on their side, if only to oppose Trump. But they won't get much support other than soft and meaningless words, if they keep poking the Bear. And they just might get eaten...hard as a meal as that would be to digest.

fotokemist , 21 June 2019 at 08:05 AM
My poorly informed speculation drawing upon my career as a chemist (i.e., no military training or experience, the navy rejected me when I tried to join the NROTC in 1963) I am inclined to disbelieve our claims that our drone was in international air space. One commentator on MoA claimed there is no international air space over the Gulf of Hormuz. The relevant treaties address only marine access.

It would appear the Iranians tracked our drone essentially from time time of departure until its demise. The folks on the web would have us believe the Iranians used a $2,500 homemade missile to bring down a $120,000,000 drone. Let that soak in. Am I the only one wondering what else we are unaware?

Regarding the aborted attack, my suspicion is that someone informed Trump of the possibility of an unsuspected Iranian asset bringing down an F-22, or horrors, an F-35. Not likely to help our export programs.

Combined with the possibility that Iran can present convincing evidence that the drone penetrated their air space, Trump would be in a poor position to defend himself against war crime charges should he order an attack. Might not play well in the upcoming election cycle.

As a businessman, he could have decided the rewards of an attack did not justify these risks.

Other thoughts?

Andrei Martyanov (aka SmoothieX12) -> fotokemist... , 21 June 2019 at 12:05 PM
Regarding the aborted attack, my suspicion is that someone informed Trump of the possibility of an unsuspected Iranian asset bringing down an F-22, or horrors, an F-35. Not likely to help our export programs.

Certainly one of major considerations. Unlike Iraq's "integrated" (a propaganda cliche--antiquated should have been the term), Iran's Air Defense Force has some really quirky own designed and manufactured, mostly Chinese and Russian knock-offs) air defense complexes with serious sensors.

It also has Russian S-300PMU2. In general, Iran is nothing like Iraq, Libya or Syria before Russia intervened.

I would put Iran's medium range (up to 100 kilometers range and up to 20 kilometers altitude) AD capabilities as robustly good.

And then, of course, tactical-operational ballistic missiles with an easy reach anywhere in ME (Qatar rings the bell, among many other) and, finally, who knows how many (very-very many) and what capability anti-shipping missiles.

Rumor has it--Iran has a number of Yakhonts. Those are very bad news for anything on the surface in Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

fotokemist , 21 June 2019 at 08:24 AM
Make that Strait of Hormuz.
Fourth and Long , 21 June 2019 at 08:46 AM
Probably a face saving gesture - can seem tough and reasonable simultaneously. It's shaping up as de-escalation on both sides for now, which I deduce from recent press releases on behalf of Iranian authorities saying that they refrained from shooting down a US P-8 plane carrying 35 people, which was accompanying the unmanned drone which they acknowledge shooting down. So they're mirroring each other IMO - it's not going to escalate.
CK , 21 June 2019 at 08:46 AM
I believe that Nixon did the same thing in 1969 when North Korea shot down an ec121. Threaten with a nuke and then stand down.
Ishmael Zechariah -> Eric Newhill... , 21 June 2019 at 10:54 AM
Eric Newhill,
IMO,it is the izzies who are pushing for the destruction of Iran, with their BS about Amalek, their god-given title to Palestine, and their attempts to re-mold the ME in their image. The presence of Nasrallah&Co. and their rocket forces-mostly supplied by Iran-is the primary issue. Most of the current ills of the ME can be traced to the izzies. Think Syria.
While there is no doubt that US can pound Iran into the stone age without really working a sweat, she probably would not have gotten off w/o a few bruises for her pains. In addition, more importantly in my view, the izzies might have also gotten a few surprises.
My friends were glad to end last night with no emergencies on their watch. We were all very, very worried.
Ishmael Zechariah
joanna said in reply to Eric Newhill... , 21 June 2019 at 10:59 AM
yes, still playing guitar?

https://mfa.gov.il/MFA/ForeignPolicy/Iran/Pages/default.aspx

And what would you personally consider as more urgent, the inner US bolshevik threat the ones that made the deal or the outer Iranian one?

eakens said in reply to Eric Newhill... , 21 June 2019 at 11:49 AM
Flying a plane into their territory, getting shot down, and then not attacking and calling it an opportunity to deescalate. That's rich. The only thing these whole farcical attempt at diplomacy has proven from the day the deal was denounced as being a bad deal is that those at the top know little of Iran and Iranians. Nor do we want to know, since virtually every time I watch TV and they bring on an "expert" to talk about Iran, they are not only not Iranian but half the time Jewish.
Eric Newhill said in reply to eakens... , 21 June 2019 at 12:58 PM
eakens,
How do you know where the drone was when it was shot down? How do you know where the plane was?
robt willmann , 21 June 2019 at 09:28 AM
Trump has come out through the usual direct communication channel, saying the reason he called off a strike was that casualties were certain to occur and thus would not be proportionate to an unmanned drone--

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1142055375186907136

Bill Wade , 21 June 2019 at 09:28 AM
"On Monday they shot down an unmanned drone flying in International Waters. We were cocked & loaded to retaliate last night on 3 different sights when I asked, how many will die. 150 people, sir, was the answer from a General. 10 minutes before the strike I stopped it, not proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone. I am in no hurry, our Military is rebuilt, new, and ready to go, by far the best in the world. Sanctions are biting & more added last night. Iran can NEVER have Nuclear Weapons, not against the USA, and not against the WORLD!" Pres Trump tweet
Andrei Martyanov (aka SmoothieX12) -> Eric Newhill... , 21 June 2019 at 01:25 PM
Yes. Trump is more cool headed than a lot of people give him credit for being.

His actions have nothing to do with him being cool headed. He is very confused man as of today. But in this particular case we all may be thankful for none other than Tucker Carlson who, if to believe number of American sources, does advise Trump and that, in itself, is a really good news for everyone on the planet. In fact, if Trump wants second term, among many things he ought to do is to remove Bolton and appoint Tucker his NSA. Carlson surely is way more qualified for this job than Bolton. Come to think about it, Tucker could make a decent Secretary of the State too.

HawkOfMay , 21 June 2019 at 09:48 AM
I've always felt that President Trump is impulsive and that impulsiveness is one of the things that makes him unfit to be President. My question is not 'did he order airstrikes'. My question is 'did an adult in the room step in' or 'did he actually change his mind'. I suspect the answer to that question will break down along the typical partisan lines.

It does make clear that he has no overall plan or strategy in place. These actions demonstrate that our President is unpredictable. While unpredictability has its own value (perhaps especially in the political arena) I don't want to see miscalculations creep in when we are talking about getting involved in a new war in the ME.

Eugene Owens , 21 June 2019 at 10:03 AM
I thank Generals Dunford and Selva at the JCS for putting the brakes on Moron Bolton and SecState Pompous. Particularly General Selva who says protecting oil shipments thru the Strait is not our job; and who also pushed back hard against escalation in Venezuela in late April.

https://www.businessinsider.com/paul-selva-john-bolton-aides-meeting-venezuela-2019-5

https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2019/06/18/dont-expect-the-us-to-secure-arabian-gulf-shipping-alone-top-general-says/

Eugene Owens , 21 June 2019 at 10:11 AM
fotokemist & Ted Richard -

The ships and aircraft of all nations, including warships, auxiliaries, and military aircraft, enjoy the right of unimpeded transit passage in the Strait and its approaches.

That is true elsewhere also. The international legal regime of transit passage exists not only at the Strait of Hormuz but also in the Strait of Gibraltar, the Dover Strait, the Bab-el-Mandeb, and the Strait of Malacca.

Fred , 21 June 2019 at 10:33 AM
Walrus,

Looks like impeachment for Russian collusion is off the table, Joe 'foot in mouth' Biden gets some cover and even Democrats in congress are talking about how the AUMF is outdated. Fixing the later, well that would take Pelosi allowing some legislation to come up for a vote.

Flavius , 21 June 2019 at 11:14 AM
Prudent move by the President. It is encouraging that he put in play the concept of proportionality. Although the scale of challenge represented by Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968, and the Pueblo in 68 exceeded this event, Trump's reasoning in this situation demonstrated a level of akin sobriety that has all too frequently been lacking in the course of the last three presidencies. The lunatic fringes will no doubt find some way to undercut him, the left for their usual obscene political reasons and the neo-cons because they are neo-cons in service to their 'higher calling' but Trump by now has become accustomed to the craven antics of former; and hopefully this unfolding will so contrast his reasoning with the reasoning of his card carrying neo-con advisors that he will realize he needs to clean house for the next time.
jon stanley said in reply to Flavius... , 21 June 2019 at 03:54 PM
What "challenge" in Hungry? Ike made it clear, in 1944, never mind 1956, where our sphere of interest was. There was never any doubt in Ike's mind, anyway. And who had enough gravitas and knowledge to try and talk him out of his views? Czechoslovakia in 1968? Come on...we were a bit, cough, cough, distracted in 1968. That was never in question either. Pueblo? Come on..
blue peacock , 21 June 2019 at 01:15 PM
Jack posted an interesting tweet on another thread. It seems there may also be an alternate explanation on why Trump called off the attacks.

Apparently Iran was informed of the imminent attacks. They responded through Oman & Switzerland that they wouldn't play ball and any attack would escalate.

It is high time for Trump to eject the neocons from his administration.

Mark Logan , 21 June 2019 at 03:17 PM
There was a palpable lack of enthusiasm for a new war on FOX's programs last night.

IMO unless Trump comes to believe his re-election chances would be enhanced by a new war or the IRG conducts ops too violent to be ignored he is likely to keep it holstered.

[Jun 19, 2019] Declassified The Sino-Russian Masterplan To End U.S. Dominance In Middle East OilPrice.com

Notable quotes:
"... One of the first major confrontations with the US by Russia and the PRC was to be over the greater Middle East. The main reason was the advance negotiations with all key oil producers -- including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran -- on substituting the petrodollar with a basket of currencies where the yuan , the euro and the ruble dominate. Using the currency basket would enable the sellers and buyers to go around the US-imposed sanctions and quotas. Indeed, Beijing and Moscow were now enticing the oil producers with huge, long-term export deals which were both financially lucrative and politically tempting by offering guarantees for the well-being of the participating governments. ..."
"... The 26th of March 2018 will go in history as the most momentous day for the United States’ economy, China’s economy and the petrodollar and also for China’s status as an economic superpower. In that day China launched its yuan-denominated crude oil futures in Shanghai thus challenging the petrodollar for dominance in the global oil market. ..."
"... And with tensions escalating between Iran and the United States, Iran figures prominently in the Russia-China strategic partnership. It is an important link in the BRI. Moreover, Iran has recently become more confident in its ability to confront the United States by the joint guarantees of support it received from Russia and China in the event the US moved to strangle it and attempt a regime change. Iran’s understanding is that were the US to take military action against it, Russia and China would prevent an Iranian defeat even if there were major setbacks. ..."
Jun 19, 2019 | oilprice.com

One of the first major confrontations with the US by Russia and the PRC was to be over the greater Middle East. The main reason was the advance negotiations with all key oil producers -- including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran -- on substituting the petrodollar with a basket of currencies where the yuan , the euro and the ruble dominate. Using the currency basket would enable the sellers and buyers to go around the US-imposed sanctions and quotas. Indeed, Beijing and Moscow were now enticing the oil producers with huge, long-term export deals which were both financially lucrative and politically tempting by offering guarantees for the well-being of the participating governments.

The crux of the proposal is regional and includes flagrant disregard of the US sanctions on Iran.

However, the key to the extent of the commitment of both Beijing and Moscow lies in the growing importance and centrality of the New Silk Road via Central Asia.

Persia had a crucial rôle in the ancient Silk Road, and both the PRC and Russia now expect Iran to have a comparable key rôle in the New Silk Road.

The growing dominance of heritage-based dynamics throughout the developing world, including the greater Central Asia and the greater Middle East, makes it imperative for the PRC to rely on historic Persia/Iran as a western pole of the New Silk Road. It is this realization which led both Beijing and Moscow to give Tehran, in mid-May 2019, the original guarantees that Washington would be prevented from conducting a "regime change".

Therefore, even though both Russia and the PRC were not satisfied with the Iranian and Iran-proxy activities and policies in the Iraq-Syria-Lebanon area, it was far more important for them to support Iran, and also Turkey, in their confrontations with the US in order to expedite the consolidation of the New Silk Road.

Tehran and its key allies in "the Middle Eastern Entente" -- Turkey and Qatar -- are cognizant of the core positions of Russia and the PRC. Since mid-May, Tehran and, to a lesser extent, Ankara and Doha, were appraised by Moscow and Beijing of their overall direction of political decisions. Hence, since early June 2019, Tehran has felt confident to start building momentum of Iranian assertiveness and audacity.

Tehran has been raising its profile in the region.

Tehran insists that it is now impossible to make decisions, or do anything else, in the greater Middle East without Iran's approval. On June 2, 2019, the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Maj.-Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, touted the new strategic posture of Iran. "The Islamic movement has affected the entire world and on top of that, it has succeeded in intimidating the American hegemony and Zionism," he said. Bagheri attributed the new influence of Iran to the acquisition of regional strategic depth; that is, reaching the shores of the Mediterranean

Mamdouh Salamehon June 18 2019

Some quarters in the West belittle the strategic partnership between China and Russia describing it as a “marriage of convenience”. They even had the temerity to urge President Putin to make a choice between China and the West.

President Putin will never sacrifice his strategic partnership with China for the West. Both Russia and China rank their ties as the “peak” in mutual history. This can be judged by two analytical frameworks: their converging visions of the future world order and their harmonized national interests.

The Chinese view on the world order at this historical juncture is shared and dovetailed by Putin’s Russia. Both sides hold the view that Washington’s alienation from both Beijing and Moscow is reflected by the deeply rooted fear of the US losing hegemonic status as the “only indispensable superpower”. The indications of the US fear are plenty. From Beijing’s point of view, they manifest themselves by the U.S. decision to restart a Cold War containment strategy of China and by the trade war it is waging against it. From Moscow’s perspective, US fears manifest themselves by the US attempts to undermine Russia’s dominance in global energy and also by the Western alliance pushing the Western sphere of influence towards the Russian border.

In sharp contrast to mutual suspicion and deteriorating relationship between Washington and Beijing, the Chinese-Russian tie has proved to be a stable strategic partnership built on mutual understanding, respect and national interests.

The Russia-China strategic alliance is destined to shape the global economy and the geopolitics of the world in the 21st century converting it from a unipolar to a multipolar world.

Relations between China, the world’s largest economy based on purchasing power parity (PPP) and Russia, the world’s energy superpower, are deepening at a time of profound change in the global geopolitical landscape.

Their tools are the petro-yuan and the Silk Road better known as the Belt &amp; Road Initiative (BRI).

The 26th of March 2018 will go in history as the most momentous day for the United States’ economy, China’s economy and the petrodollar and also for China’s status as an economic superpower. In that day China launched its yuan-denominated crude oil futures in Shanghai thus challenging the petrodollar for dominance in the global oil market.

Right now, China is the number one exporter on the globe, the largest crude oil importer in the world and also the world’s biggest economy. The Chinese would like to see global currency usage reflect this shift in global economic power. The petrodollar system provides at least three immediate benefits to the United States. It increases global demand for US dollars. It also increases global demand for US debt securities and it gives the United States the ability to buy oil with a currency it can print at will. In geopolitical terms, the petrodollar lends vast economic and political power to the United States. China hopes to replicate this dynamic.

The launching of the crude oil benchmark on the Shanghai exchange could mark the beginning of the end of the petrodollar. It is probable that the Chinese yuan will emerge as the world’s top reserve currency within the next fifteen years with the petro-yuan emerging as the top oil currency.

Another tool of the Russian-Chinese strategic partnership is BRI. The BRI is a massive undertaking involving investments programmes worth trillions of dollars, which will go toward connecting Asia and Europe by sea, rail, and road to promote more trade between the continents.

And with tensions escalating between Iran and the United States, Iran figures prominently in the Russia-China strategic partnership. It is an important link in the BRI. Moreover, Iran has recently become more confident in its ability to confront the United States by the joint guarantees of support it received from Russia and China in the event the US moved to strangle it and attempt a regime change. Iran’s understanding is that were the US to take military action against it, Russia and China would prevent an Iranian defeat even if there were major setbacks.

Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London

[Jun 18, 2019] How to manipulate financial markets by Igor Kuchma

Notable quotes:
"... The question that must be raised is who gains what from these incidents. Let's start from saying that even if Tehran had nothing to do with these attacks, it will still suffer the consequences. It is enough to recall the Gulf of Tonkin incident that took place in August 1964. Back then, a US-staged false flag initiated full-scale conflict in Southeast Asia. ..."
Jun 18, 2019 | www.asiatimes.com
There have always been people who have tried to gain power and control. The only distinction was the mechanism through which they planned to achieve it: brute force or something more original. For example, researchers manipulate data to attain the results they want, while traders try to manipulate and influence market prices by disseminating erroneous information. Some go even further by conducting so-called "false flag" and "fake news" operations.

However, it is a gradual process. First, the technique of misinformation is implemented – as you may remember, in 2016, the Internet was filled with fake news aimed at distorting public opinion and helping one of the candidates to become president of the United States of America. This year, intelligence agencies and non-government entities have decided to use similar ploys to influence oil prices.

According to Wikipedia, a false flag is "intentional misrepresentation or covert operation designed to deceive; the deception creates the appearance of a particular party, group, or nation being responsible for some activity, disguising the actual source of responsibility." Recently it became popular for countries to "organize attacks on themselves and make the attacks appear to be by enemy nations or terrorists, thus giving the nation that was supposedly attacked a pretext for domestic repression and foreign military or economic aggression."

Recently there were news report that two oil tankers had been damaged in a suspected attack in the waters between the United Arab Emirates and Iran as they were leaving the Persian Gulf. And predictably, the United States claimed that Iran was responsible for damaging the vessels in the Gulf of Oman. This was the second such incident in four weeks.

The question that must be raised is who gains what from these incidents. Let's start from saying that even if Tehran had nothing to do with these attacks, it will still suffer the consequences. It is enough to recall the Gulf of Tonkin incident that took place in August 1964. Back then, a US-staged false flag initiated full-scale conflict in Southeast Asia.

Iran has already accused the US of lying about a "torpedo attack" on an American-linked oil tanker. "The US and its regional allies must stop warmongering and put an end to mischievous plots and false-flag operations in the region," Iran's mission to the United Nations said .

As history has shown, the Americans won't back down. Does it mean that Iran is next on its target list for war? Only time will tell.

Nevertheless, without waiting for the results of an investigation, Brent prices spiked after the reports of the attacks on tankers leaving the Persian Gulf.

The Brent crude quote won 4.45% on Thursday, shortly after news of the attacks broke, but it has since slightly decreased, or, should we say, corrected. Without any doubt, someone managed to put up a really good million-dollar front.

[Jun 15, 2019] False flags here, false flags there, false flags everywhere. All too further the aims of the masters of the universe

Jun 15, 2019 | off-guardian.org

Milton

Interesting that this Israeli-First traitor Clawson mentions Lincoln and Ft. Sumter. He finally admits what genuine historians of the Civil War long knew: Lincoln was a warmonger and tyrant, not an emancipator. The Civil war was fought to eliminate true freedom and equality in this country and it has been downhill ever since. The working class and soldier-class in America today are slaves in every sense of the word. Slaves to Zion. No wonder the certified warmonger and racist Lincoln is worshiped equally by Left and Right today, whilst genuine American patriots like Robert E. Lee have their legacy torn down. Lincoln was the proto-Neocon. Tom Dilorenzo summed up the real Lincoln when he wrote in Lincoln Unmasked:

"Imagine that California seceded from the union and an American president responded with the carpet bombing of Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco that destroyed 90 percent of those cities. Such was the case with General Sherman's bombardment of Atlanta; a naval blockade; a blocking off of virtually all trade; the eviction of thousands of residents from their homes (as occurred in Atlanta in 1864); the destruction of most industries and farms; massive looting of private property by a marauding army; and the killing of one out of four males of military age while maiming for life more than double that number. Would such an American president be considered a 'great statesman' or a war criminal? The answer is obvious.

A statesman would have recognized the state's right to secede, as enshrined in the Tenth Amendment, among other places, and then worked diligently to persuade the seceded state that a reunion was in its best interest. Agreat statesman, or even a modest one, would not have impulsively plunged the entire nation into a bloody war.

Lincoln's warmongering belligerence and his invasion of all the Southern states in response to Fort Sumter (where no one was harmed or killed) caused the upper South -- Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Arkansas -- to secede after originally voting to remain in the Union. He refused to meet with Confederate commissioners to discuss peace and even declined a meeting with Napoleon III of France, who offered to broker a peace agreement. No genuine statesman would have behaved in such a way.

After Fort Sumter, Lincoln thanked naval commander Gustavus Fox for assisting him in manipulating the South Carolinians into firing at Fort Sumter. A great statesman does not manipulate his own people into starting one of the bloodiest wars in human history."

mathias alexand
Here's a man who holds a press conference to announce a secret plan. Only in America.
Gezzah Potts
False flags here, false flags there, false flags everywhere. All too further the aims of the 'masters of the universe'. We know who was responsible for the tanker attacks. Who are the 3 countries absolutely desperate to take Iran down and install a completely pliant puppet regime answerable to Washington, Tel Aviv and to a lesser extent Riyadh. And creatures like Clawson, and all the other vermin can only see $$$$. Thats all they care about. Opening up more markets to further enrich themselves. I echo the other commenters also. The evil men stoop to for greed, power and control. Psychopaths.
harry law
The Foreign Office issued a statement saying: "It is almost certain that a branch of the Iranian military – the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – attacked the two tankers on 13 June. No other state or non-state actor could plausibly have been responsible."
Unbelievable, The UK vassal will use this to as one more reason to evade their responsibilities in implementing the JCPOA.
Gezzah Potts
Well they would say that, wouldn't they. The UK vassal state will spout any peice of crap in their assigned role as vassal state. Australia is just as gushingly sycophantic and cravenly jellified.
mark
Maybe it's "highly likely."
Gezzah Potts
Like an apple is green? They must think we're complete amoeba's to believe this. Sigh.
William HBonney
A Riyadh/Tel Aviv conspiracy. Genius!
Gezzah Potts
Er . just a rough guess Bill going on the belligerent foaming at the mouth by people in those places along with the likes of Bolton and Pompeo. In fact, you can probably go all the way back to about 1980 or so.
mark
I think the real giveaway was when all three rogue states openly stated their intention of doing this 1,000 times over the past 10 years. That was the crucial clue Sherlock Holmes was looking for.
Wilmers31
And who funds the Washington Institute? Last time I looked the International Crisis Group existed thanks to Soros and is usually treated like a serious organisation.

Many Europeans are not in love with the idea of war with Iran, just to achieve obedience to the US. 90 million people is bigger than Germany.

wardropper
These are the shysters, the spivs and the con men of bygone times. They are the ones who lurked at street corners, waiting for someone to come along who was gullible enough to buy the Moon from them.
But, for some reason, they are all in politics today.
Now how could that be?

Only because there are people whom it currently suits to use shysters, spivs and con men in order to create enough chaos for us to want to give up and just let those people have their way.

I agree with Rhys below. There is no more disgusting example of sub-humanity to be found on earth than these warmongers.
To deal with them, however, we will have to realize that their "philosophy", if you can call it that, runs very deep. It didn't just enter their heads last week.
They are reared and trained in it.

It will be a tough battle.

wardropper
I should add that, in bygone times, the police and the law were usually able to deal with the shysters, spivs and con men, since their lack of conscience often gave them away.
The modern version, however, which has moved into politics, was shrewd enough to use a few decades of bribery and threats in order to build around itself a nice little shell, through which the law simply cannot penetrate, except on special occasions, mainly for show.
Rhys Jaggar
There is a big cabal of warmongers who stoke the fuel but never see action. I find those people more disgusting than anyone on earth.

Draft dodgers, academics, 'historians' etc etc.

Ball-less pricks is what I call them .

mark
All fully paid up members of the Bill Clinton Light Infantry.
William HBonney
Yeah, well I'm not a great fan of those who would appease Assad, Putin, Hussein, Gaddafi

You must be so proud.

andyoldlabour
The appeasers would include the US who fully supported Saddam Hussein in his war against Iran, who provided him with chemical weapons and logistical help in using those weapons, which killed around 50,000 Iranian troops and Kurdish civilians.
The same appeasers armed and funded the Taliban (Mujahideen) against the Soviets.
The US are the single largest force for terrorism the World has ever seen.
William HBonney
The easiest, and perhaps best metric by which to judge a country, is 'do people aspire to live there? '.

I see you admire the Soviet Union, but at its dissolution, people were queuing to leave. And yet the US, and the UK, according to you, iniquitous places of tyranny, are oversubscribed. Could it be, that for all your implied erudition, you are merely a bellend?

axisofoil
You must be a big fan of CNN and the NYT. Ignorance is bliss, isn't it?
BigB
Well, even as a pacifist: if that is his sentiment – I hope he has sons or daughters in the military stationed in CENTCOM in Qatar. I bet he hasn't, though.
Rhisiart Gwilym
He should be right there on the frontline himself. That would straighten the disgusting creep's ideas out about the 'usefulness' of deliberately provoking war

[Jun 15, 2019] US Secretary of State Pompeo alleged that Iran had attacked the tankers to raise the global price of oil

Jun 15, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

Hoarsewhisperer , Jun 13, 2019 1:52:29 PM | 104


ben , Jun 13, 2019 2:02:19 PM | 106

From an article in the Navy Times last summer:
Standing at the forefront of game-changing innovations in undersea warfare, Navy Cmdr. Scott Smith has only one small request. Don't call the Navy's fleet of unmanned undersea vehicles "drones." "It has a negative connotation," Smith said. "We think of drone strikes as taking out Taliban, and we're nowhere near that." Not yet, anyway. But the Pentagon is trying quickly to get there.

Last fall, the Navy named Smith as the first-ever commander of the new Unmanned Undersea Vehicle Squadron 1, or UUVRON-1. It's spearheading the service's development and deployment of unmanned underwater vehicles. Called UUVs, they're are already being used for surveillance and to clear mines and map the ocean floor, according to Bryan Clark, a retired submariner who is now a senior fellow with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.

So don't get it twisted, this ascendent FUKUS drone army is doubleplusgood; it's designed for mapping and minesweeping! Sort of like a bunch of little Indian Joneses! Of course the article does go on to brag:

There are even ongoing efforts to launch UUVs from Virginia-class submarines to conduct surveillance or deliver payloads. He said that over the next decade sailors should expect to use the underwater robots to bring sonar arrays and mines to the seabed, launch torpedoes or become torpedoes themselves to destroy enemy warships . Smith wants to see UUVs in all kinds of sizes to fill gaps in future missions. "Those missions that are too dangerous to put men on," Smith said.

It is absolutely side-splitting though that they think they can achieve Total Spectrum Dominance with these toys. Sorry, I'm looking for any old silver lining these days.

Posted by: sejomoje | Jun 13, 2019 1:59:56 PM | 10 5 No matter the culprit in this latest incident, I lay this current world unrest at the feet of our current empire.

The economic terrorism, imposed on other nations through U$ sanctions, is the real problem..

And ALL done, to enrich the already rich....

arby , Jun 13, 2019 2:08:02 PM | 109
"US officials, however, were quick to point the finger at Iran. "It's clear that Iran is behind the Fujairah attack. Who else would you think would be doing it? Someone from Nepal?" said US National Security Adviser John Bolton.

In turn, US Secretary of State Pompeo alleged that Iran had attacked the tankers to raise the global price of oil.

Tehran has denied any involvement and called for an investigation."

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Two-Oil-Tankers-Come-Under-Attack-in-Sea-of-Oman-20190613-0002.html

karlof1 , Jun 13, 2019 2:39:14 PM | 116
Overlooked/ignored is this item of interest :

"On the previous day, a fire broke out on an Iranian oil platform of the South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf and was subsequently contained and no fatalities were reported."

Recall the plot of the movie A Fistful of Dollars and another can of worms becomes possible.

rockstar , Jun 13, 2019 2:41:38 PM | 117
Pompeo is already blaming the attacks on Iran.

Whenever the US has their conclusion this quickly, before even the appearance of an investigation (as with MH17, and Syria "chemical" attacks), I feel it is almost certain that they are making $&!% up, and the reality is likely the opposite of what they have said.

Miranda , Jun 13, 2019 4:03:25 PM | 130
Both Israel and the Saudis are far too incompetent to carry out a sophisticated attack like this - see, ships didn't sink but a message was delivered nonetheless. Probable some military contractor idling in Syria was reassigned to do this.
Zanon , Jun 13, 2019 4:04:11 PM | 131
Now Pompeo have accused Iran, that is why I said it was idiotic to even dwell into that, we see now what it leads to.
Yonatan , Jun 13, 2019 4:14:38 PM | 134
Japanese-owned ship hit just as Abe visits Tehran? A warning to Japan to stop the rapprochement with Iran, or look to more damage to your ships.

Parallels with MH370/MH17 strikes against Malaysia for their temerity in finding the IDF guilty of war crimes.

Oscar Peterson , Jun 13, 2019 4:44:08 PM | 139
An obvious question is why the US is not providing evidence to support its claims.

On possible explanation is that there is no evidence.

Another would be that there is evidence but that if the US produced the evidence, then it would be constrained to "do something." In the scenario in which Iran is conducting these quasi-attacks to warn of impending greater escalation if the US continues to starve it, both sides want the other to initiate any violence, and the US doesn't really want the global economic chaos that hostilities would inevitably bring--especially in conjunction with the trade/tech war with China. Therefore, it is pulling its punches and withholding the evidence it has.

Iran may sense that given the US-China and US-Russia issues and the 2020 election, they had better escalate now or be slowly bled to death. But they would like the US to provide a pretext for Iran to take real action to block traffic into and out of the Persian Gulf. But the US wants to be able to portray Iran as the aggressor.

Hence the cat-and-mouse game ongoing. I have to admit, it does make a certain comprehensive sense.

librul , Jun 13, 2019 5:07:25 PM | 141
The Japanese Prime Minister was visiting Tehran at the time of the attack upon a Japanese tanker.

What a perfect time to attack a Japanese tanker.

Such a plan reeks of incompetence.

Incompetence is a finger print of the Saudis.

Reminder that they butchered journalist Jamal Khashoggi in their own embassy. They mailed bombs (hidden in printers) to the US and Britain
and kept the tracking slips of the packages - nice plan ! All bombers must remember to save their tracking slips.

They tried to embarrass Iran by attacking a Japanese tanker while the Japanese Prime Minister was having a positive visit to Tehran.

Incompetence is a finger print of the Saudis.

james , Jun 13, 2019 5:08:43 PM | 142
the usa has produced 'phony' hard evidence in the past... it typically goes with false flags.. i am not saying this will come out of this, or that iran is not involved, but i lean strongly to the ramp up in a focus on the strait of hormuz as all part of a longer strategy of creating stress on iran and potentially dragging them into war.. either way as OP mentions in his last line @128...
karlof1 , Jun 13, 2019 5:12:47 PM | 145
Oscar Peterson @139&140--

Evidence versus claims. I give you the recent near collision between Russian and USN warships where USN claimed Russian fault whereas the evidence decisively proved otherwise. USN shut-up rather quickly and the incident went to the dust bin. In an earlier comment, I speculated that an IED-type device was used and that it was installed while the ships laded. Torpedoes were certainly not used, and the limpet mine assertion remains that until a forensic examination is done, and that won't happen until the ships return to a port where repairs can be made. Also, we have the much less reported attacks on Iranian ships and extraction infrastructure--the tit for tat where we'll only be treated to the tits as I commented in a trivial comment that disappeared. The upshot is, the Outlaw US Empire has scant credibility when it comes to making claims about anything sans extraordinary evidence. Iran, of course, knows that. But given the overall context, I doubt Iran's responsible and stand by my earlier prediction of a CIA/MI-6 proxy doing the deed.

Oscar Peterson , Jun 13, 2019 5:30:31 PM | 147
@karlof1 145

I agree that US credibility on many things is weak--especially in connection with Iran--but the point is that there is a plausible scenario in which Iran is ready to escalate--or threaten to escalate--to break out of the US stranglehold but needs to execute the escalation very carefully.

I also agree that the false flag scenario is still very much in play.

karlof1 , Jun 13, 2019 5:36:29 PM | 148
Here're links to a couple of things bouncing around the Twitterverse. The first is a video clip of Bolton Caitlin does an excellent job of unpacking again . It's actually a good thing this video was saved as it needs to be distributed once again.

The second is a pic of Bolton framed at the header by "Iran is going to attack us" and at the footer with "Even if we have to do it ourselves."

Both IMO are worthy of viral retweeting provided you have an account.

Curtis , Jun 13, 2019 5:54:05 PM | 150
DW interviewed a guy today who said it could be Iran but that it could also be a false flag by one of the Emirates. His interview didn't last long before they went to someone with more of the US voice. The whole time I was thinking they said it was a torpedo and we know Israel has at least one submarine. I wonder where it is right now. Meanwhile the official US statement sounds similar to early declarations about Russians hacking HRC's email: "We assess ..."
Curtis , Jun 13, 2019 5:57:00 PM | 151
librul 141
I thought the same thing. It's like the chemical weapons attack in Syria that happened on the same day the inspectors arrived. It's like the White Helmets being wherever HTS is. The alt media is the only arena where people say this sounds fishy.
Pnyx , Jun 13, 2019 6:01:47 PM | 152
You shouldn't be misled. Iran does not want war, because the leadership knows that it will definitely lead to gigantic damage in its own country. In Tronald's administration and elsewhere, on the other hand, there are people who absolutely want a war, the four B's in the first place. Tronald himself doesn't really want one, but is caught between a rock and a hard place. He absolutely wants to make the economy look positive until the next elections, but this is difficult because there are signs of recession everywhere in the world. An important factor is the price of oil. Despite the sanctions against Iran, it has not yet risen, the fracking industry, which produces what it can do due to its debts service necessities, continues to lose money at these prices. It will be difficult to avoid collapses. So Tronald may be willing to do more to push up the price of oil. For example, a nice little false flag action. The Relotius media are almost convinced, no wonder if even someone like B is wobbling.

But, people; the empire is the empire, we know how it works, that doesn't change. That's Tonkin 2.0.

El Cid , Jun 13, 2019 6:06:10 PM | 154
Cui Bono. Who wants to destroy Iran? Israel and Saudi Arabia. Cui Bono, merchants of war, and the bankers who fund and make war possible.
Peter AU 1 , Jun 13, 2019 6:10:51 PM | 155
IF the US or its proxies had pulled off these attacks as false flags, there would be dead and injured people and at least one or two sunken ships.

This looks very much like a message or warning to the financial world that has abandoned Iran due to US sanctions.

karlof1 , Jun 13, 2019 6:37:03 PM | 160 John Smith , Jun 13, 2019 7:06:54 PM | 161
Lucy Komisar:

State Dept admits it ran troll farm to smear critics of Iran policy.

The Independent:

United States officials say they are outraged by a government-funded troll campaign that has targeted American citizens critical of the administration's hardline Iran policy and accused critics of being loyal to the Tehran regime.

State Department officials admitted to Congressional staff in a closed-door meeting on Monday that a project they had funded to counter Iranian propaganda had gone off the rails. Critics in Washington have gone further, saying that the programme resembled the type of troll farms used by autocratic regimes abroad.

<...>

John Smith , Jun 13, 2019 7:15:40 PM | 162
Edward R. Murrow on McCarthy, 1954
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEvEmkMNYHY
psychohistorian , Jun 13, 2019 7:17:57 PM | 163
Alright then, how is WWIII going for everyone? Everyone got their pith helmet at the ready?

I agree with the sentiments that think this is a warning to empire instead of false flag because no body bags

I feel sorry for those MoA barflies that continue to have some faith that Trump has a scintilla of humanism in him and continue to ask for some proof other than BS Q spewment. Show me ANY example of Trump showing compassion, empathy for other than his fellow war criminals he is rumored to pardon. Trump is a very hurt human being who is being used as such by those that control empire for their purposes. To the extent that he agrees to do their bidding, he is just another in a string of president war criminals of the US, since Jimmy Carter.

The world outside the West is playing the long game and the West is now very punch drunk and coming to the end of its run of empires. I read a posting from Reuters in the last 48 hours or so where some pundit was quoting folks "telling" China that they should not include private finance in this trade war thing......GRIN

The West is holding a very weak hand except for the extinction card. Will they play it because they are sore losers? Given what they have done to our planet, it would not surprise me for them to have the ultimate hubris to call the game over......sigh The Cosmos may be better for it but we have potential if we try.....

james , Jun 13, 2019 7:23:52 PM | 164
pat lang makes a good distinction on what is a us gov't assessment, verses an intel assessment..

@160 karlof1 / 161 john.. thanks for those links.. my position - all that is no surprise... i find it surprising some are surprised.. the usa is thick into propaganda at this point and said they would spend good money on war propaganda.. videos of bolton saying lying is okay aren't helpful to their cause though..

John Smith , Jun 13, 2019 7:38:58 PM | 167
Global Warfare: "We're Going to Take out 7 Countries in 5 Years: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan & Iran.."

Video Interview with General Wesley Clark

https://www.globalresearch.ca/we-re-going-to-take-out-7-countries-in-5-years-iraq-syria-lebanon-libya-somalia-sudan-iran/5166

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D89TFRwXkAEPw3c.jpg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8YtF76s-yM

John Smith , Jun 13, 2019 7:54:31 PM | 168
Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 13, 2019 7:34:22 PM | 166

CENTCOM has issued a statement. Here's the meat:

"'We have no interest in engaging in a new conflict in the Middle East. We will defend our interests, but a war with Iran is not in our strategic interest, nor in the best interest of the international community.' --@CENTCOM spokesman Lt. Col. Earl Brown."

Seems the Pentagon has flipped the bird to Pompeo and Bolton, which happened before during BushCo.
--------------------------

Maybe such a war with Iran is not in the interests of the United States, but certainly in the interests of Israel.

Top US General Says American Troops Should Be Ready To Die For Israel

"Greater Israel": The Zionist Plan for the Middle East

dltravers , Jun 13, 2019 9:09:47 PM | 183
Trump goes to Japan and asks them to mediate with Iran.

Trump ratchets up the sanctions before and Abe visits Iran which does reflect his negotiating style. Iran allegedly hits a tanker while Abe is taking to Iran. Now Abe has to go back towing the US line, as usual, saying it was Iran's fault and he loses face being insulted by Iran. What a perfect way to step up the tensions and garner more UN support.

These events will continue and slowly get worse until the coup de gra, which would be something like the sinking of a large US naval vessel in the Persian gulf. The US peoples minds are not right yet and it will take time for their minds to be framed back into war.

During the Iran Iraq war the US re flagged Kuwait tankers during the Tanker War. We could easily see a new Tanker War but on a much lower lever driven by the third party actors who stand to profit.

War with Iran will be a disaster for everyone involved except one small nation that knows how to cover their tracks.

Iran will be demolished eventually. Those who gain from destroying Iran are behind


snake , Jun 13, 2019 9:26:36 PM | 184
presstv. published a video showing 44 people saved from two on fire sinking ships. I know how difficult it is to identify these people from their faces, especially a 44 crew member crowd but I think even stinkcom could manage to do that. The media BS about this incident suggest, who ever done it, is dealing with something that went very wrong.. Iran saves 44 sailors and shows them on TV.. the west claims, with no proof whatsoever, that the Iranians did not save these sailors even though the sailors are safe in Iran? Hmmm!
I suggest the reporters and journalist that reported this, be tasked to investigate the suspicious looking dark hole named "false flag". Its a possible threat to Israel and Saudia Arabia. Its approximate location is about 200 trillion light years due East from here.. The media are saying Iran and Russia teamed up to dig a hole in space, and once the Iran-Russian team managed to get the hole dug, they climbed deep inside of the hole and turned its lights off. The west is saying they flipped the switch in the WH to keep the Iranian-Russian team from claiming its "light out" success. When the reporters and journalist get back, I am sure we will be all ears to hear the how the Russian and Iranian team managed to make a hole in space, dark.
Grieved , Jun 13, 2019 9:49:43 PM | 185
I haven't seen this posted yet, Iran's Foreign Minister has given formal assurance that Iran is not behind this, and has pointedly commented that the whole episode is "very suspicious" since Abe was visiting:
'Suspicious doesn't begin to describe what happened': Iran's FM on tanker 'attacks' in Gulf of Oman

@karlof1 - I read the Luongo piece and I find it the most pivotal of all current commentary - largely because it's about the oil situation globally. Neither Iran nor Russia need the price of oil to go up in order to prosper - the US and Saudi Arabia do need the price to go up.

Having said that, I don't know that insurance rates rising are actually adding to the producer's revenue at the wellhead/refinery.

I do know that oil is self-regulating, in that whenever it gets around $100 a barrel and over, the global economy stalls and the demand for oil goes down, resulting in glut for a time and lower prices - not to mention global recession. As Luongo illustrates, right now the world is in a large glut. There's nothing to push the price up (which Trump desperately needs) except tightening production, which Saudi wants, but which Russia doesn't want to do.

~~

So imagine a world filled to the brim with bluster, and yet once again what actually moves on the ground (or below the waves) is actually very little. Enough bluster to scare everyone and increase leverage of the security apparatus, and just enough damage to inch the oil price up without crashing the global economy. Expect more such ratcheting.

Iran didn't do this latest episode. The US and Israel are the likely actors, with Saudi and UAE providing lunch money for the excursion. Also, the false flag works fine without dead bodies if the intent is not for a war with Iran - which the US military absolutely knows cannot be won - but to trigger oil prices up. At times, commercial interests take over, and ride the wave of military activity, and I suspect this one is about the money.

And these neocons, by the way, seem able to live on pure fantasy. I don't think they'll achieve a real war. They visibly make their points - increase their stature - in their peer group purely from grandstanding.

Grieved , Jun 13, 2019 9:59:53 PM | 186
It's worth linking the Tom Luongo piece again for a nice understanding of oil fundamentals in the region and the world currently. It's important to understand how illusory and temporary the US fracking phenomenon is:
Trump Thinks US Oil Is His Strength When It's His Achilles' Heel

As a commenter here (David on May 13) said recently, the US fracking industry's appalling indebtedness comes due in 2023. This is far enough through Trump's potential second term that he can blame everyone else and move on. I've made a personal note to expect a US economic plunge in that year.

To see Trump's acts as merely keeping the ponzi scheme going for as long as possible, and for as much short-term reward through the second term, is the best understanding of White House policy I think.

h , Jun 13, 2019 10:05:51 PM | 187
Grieved @184 thanks for that link. Just saw an update on Fox stating Iran has formally denied any part of this incident but can't find a solid Iranian news source to confirm.
Don Bacon , Jun 13, 2019 10:16:54 PM | 188
@ Pnyx 181
. . . for the usa it is not the same. Their homeland is far away, while Iran would suffer extreme devastation in the event of a war - whatever the final result. So I think it is absolutely unthinkable that Iran would do anything to increase the risk of war.

You don't understand -- every US death in war is now a news item. When 5 or 6 dies it's huge news. This is not Vietnam with 200 dying every week. Its different now. So if a thousand soldiers die in the beginning of a conflict with Iran it's HUGE. No American cares how many Iranians would die, but they DO care if Americans die, homeland or not. THAT's why the generals are against it too. . .PS: If the Iranians sink that carrier, it's 5,000+ American dead. Unacceptable.

So that's why Iran is free to dispute the aggression against them with some violent events. More power to them.

dh , Jun 13, 2019 10:21:23 PM | 189
I'm very disappointed in John Bolton. There should be another carrier group on the way by now. Is he losing his touch?
psychohistorian , Jun 13, 2019 10:31:02 PM | 190
I would think that if the Iranian's held the crew and took off an unexploded bomb that they can ask the crew how they might have gotten there......

Were the ships in Iran controlled waters such that the empire side could not retrieve the unexploded bomb? If that is the case then I suspect the unexploded bomb may show up in pictures we see that show where it might have come from.....

Isn't it grand watching our own sick soap opera?

james , Jun 13, 2019 10:43:19 PM | 191
@186 h... fars news is always a good place to start.. http://en.farsnews.com/

@188 dh... you might have to vote for a different lunatic then the last one you voted for in 2016!!

Don Bacon , Jun 13, 2019 11:06:34 PM | 195
from the grasping at straws mines department.
news report
Iran removed a mine from a ship, so that proves that Iran put it there!
The U.S. military has released a video it says implicates Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the attack on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, the latest violent incident the United States and its allies blame on Tehran.
The U.S. Central Command on June 13 said the video shows crews from IRGC boats removing what looks like an unexploded mine from the side of one of the two attacked oil tankers. . . here

the US has met its match, asking for a seizure at the UNSC --
Earlier in the day at the UN, U.S. acting Ambassador Jonathan Cohen called on the Security Council to confront the "clear threat" posed by Tehran in the region.
The attacks "demonstrate the clear threat that Iran poses to international peace and security," Cohen told reporters following the closed-door Security Council meeting.
Cohen said that "no proxy group in the area has the resources or the skill to act with this level of sophistication."
"Iran, however, has the weapons, the expertise, and the requisite intelligence information to pull this off," he said.
"I've asked the Security Council to remain seized of the matter and I expect that we will have further conversations about it, and how to respond in the days ahead," he added.

Loud chuckling was heard in Tehran.
Don Bacon , Jun 13, 2019 11:06:34 PM | 195 Anon , Jun 13, 2019 11:20:05 PM | 196
So this is what comes to mind...

Houthi or al. are responsible for first event. They target Saudi/Nor. ships.

Saudi et. al. target ships friendly to Iran.


Understand though that in these events there is a total asymmetry at play. That is to say that actions will not follow any logic we know of. The above is the closest I get to making sense BUT as far as I know each side might have been responsible for the actions that seemed most counterproductive to itself. Planners know the mindset of society, a false false flag is an option.

We are left with qui bono, and I think the reply to that is as reliant on the global geopolical and economic environment, as well as who will de facto gain the upper hand. It seems to me to be a form of psychological warfare where expansion of power is questioned by the appearance or reality of being goaded. This is not a good circumstance at all.

Don Wiscacho , Jun 13, 2019 11:44:26 PM | 197
A fluid situation for sure. I wish I had had the time to follow things more closely. Thanks karlof, Oscar for all the links and info.
Can't add anything substantial apart from a general maxim: when the Empire had proof the 'other' is to blame, they readily display said proof. When they are to blame... Skripols, Mari Marmara, MH17, etc.
psychohistorian , Jun 13, 2019 11:51:21 PM | 198
@ Anon who wrote
"
It seems to me to be a form of psychological warfare where expansion of power is questioned by the appearance or reality of being goaded. This is not a good circumstance at all.
"
The first part is confusing to me

I think you meant
Psychological warfare is going on
I assume you mean the West that is questioning "by the appearance or reality of being goaded".
Your "expansion of power" leaves me wanting the meat

Yes, China/Russia and aligned are collaborating in ways that reduces the power of empire but not necessarily in ways that translates into the same sort of power......That said, global private finance versus "socialism is the eye of the storm and everything else is proxy. We are not seeing the beginning of socialism but we are seeing the end of global private finance which I think your "expansion of power" misrepresents because one supports a few and the other supports all......maybe it would be clearer to say the elimination of power by a few and the assumption of the power by the many.

I think it is a good circumstance and way past due for our species to survive.

james , Jun 13, 2019 11:54:11 PM | 199
@193 dh... i thought you could... what happened? are you one of those long lost draft dodgers?

hey - maybe he can hide under his mustache if the bombs start falling? it is almost big enough... either that, or bugs bunny can grab it when he ain't watching.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQ-BOqQw_TQ

Yeah, Right , Jun 13, 2019 11:55:49 PM | 200
@194 Is it my imagination or is that video showing a "limped mine" that is on THE OTHER SIDE of the ship than the one that is aflame?

If that is true - and it looks like it - then we have to assume that the Dastardly Iranians(tm) stuck limpet mines to both sides of that ship.

Why do that?

It maximizes your chances of being detected, and maximises the time it takes to attach the limpets, and with no discernible benefit.

Why do that, when speed and stealth are at a premium?

Don Wiscacho , Jun 14, 2019 12:12:46 AM | 205 David Gibson , Jun 14, 2019 12:57:54 AM | 206
MOA 14/06/19
If the strategic aim of the Imperialist powers is to still claim all of the Middle East oil and resources and to crush any movement towards independence then the stumbling block is Iran and Russia who have stood in their way vis-a-vie Syria.

NATO has succeeded in Iraq and Libya and almost succeeded in Syria but are still trying using the flip/flop position of Turkey and Idlib as a Castle in the game to defeat any independence movement out of US hegemony.

At this time no oil or chemicals have spilled into the Gulf waters. This is by design.
Whilst the comments pertaining to the main article are informative and useful most are getting bogged down and arguing about details and missing the overall global plans of the Imperialist plans.

The Imperialist plan remains the same whilst their tactics can and do change. Their bag of dirty tricks is quite bottomless and yes they think they can fight against any move for National Independence anywhere in the world.
Latin America most notably Venezuela, Africa with AFRICOM already using drones.

Australia, fully under MI6/CIA control. No defence of Assange an Australian Citizen, plus the coup against Gough Whitlam.
The UK, with either Boris, or Hunt being in bed with Donald, both lap dogs to the USA and like with Harold Wilson they won't allow Corbyn to become PM.

France with Macron the poodle trying to show he is as tough as Trump by being more stupid. We all know the situation of an Empire in decline. It isn't all about oil!

David Gibson , Jun 14, 2019 12:57:54 AM | 206 Jen , Jun 14, 2019 1:07:57 AM | 207
Psychohistorian @ 189:

The crews of both tankers were rescued by an Iranian rescue ship so I would say both tankers were in Iranian waters in the Gulf of Oman.

Link showing maritime borders of Iran in Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman

Peter AU 1 , Jun 14, 2019 1:20:37 AM | 208
Don Wiscacho
I take it that Abe on this exercise was no more than a US asset. Iran has stuck to the Nuke agreement and US has reneged so nothing to negotiate or mediate on Iran's side. Abe going to Iran as mediator means he was asking for concessions from Iran - that Iran make some moves to appease the US.
US is the type that if you give an inch, they take a mile. If Iran made one concession then US would take it as a sign of weakness and expect them to make more.
eagle eye , Jun 14, 2019 1:23:11 AM | 209
I might have missed mention of it in all the hullabaloo, but I have seen nothing of the US Navy response which would involve tracking down the perpetrators, and ensuring no further acts were committed.

It is that absence of obvious response which causes me to think that our host might be incorrect in his assessment, and that the perpetrator is a party the US Navy would sooner not apprehend.


All Forone , Jun 14, 2019 1:24:48 AM | 210
Iran would be crazy to take on the US so why provoke them. They stand to lose their oil then anyway. War is an economy and Everyone knows that Bolton is a war monger and that Iran is a thorn in Israels side and he needs an excuse to go to war. Also he can't use the WMD card again to start a war and JumpStart the US economy.
C , Jun 14, 2019 1:28:29 AM | 211
In 10 years we will know if it was the CIA, in order to justify the next war
james , Jun 14, 2019 1:32:07 AM | 212
@206 jen... on your link i get this message - No file by this name exists.
Big Tim , Jun 14, 2019 1:54:49 AM | 213
I have not followed this closely. There is real proof of "attack" and not accidental or set fire? There is video of a crew "abandoning ship? But then again, in 2019 there is no such thing as video or image proof, at least without expert verification.
John Carter , Jun 14, 2019 2:01:41 AM | 214
guys its BIG OIL... TRUMP approved Ethanol 15 for YEAR ROUND USE a few days ago... that means GAS PRICES would be cheaper for Americans as more corn instead of oil would be used in Automobiles. That drove OIL prices down! This attack on the two ships immediately drove CRUDE OIL up 2.87%!

It seems that TRUMP pissed off some very powerful big oil men & oil-rich Arab nations when he approved the E15!

Why blame Iran? No idea.
Why attack the ships owned by Japan while Shinzo Abe is there negotiating peace? No Idea.
Who carried out the attack? No Idea.

Mark2 , Jun 14, 2019 3:04:52 AM | 215
Interesting and sane interview on 'today program' news radio 4 bbc U.K. 7.50am ish.
Admiral Lord west - - - could be any US - proxy group in Middle East looking to gain by escalating US -Iran conflict !

He said it could well be ''a pro US group in Iran'' similar to the US backed opposition in Venezuela !

My view is this makes the most sense!
Probably given the nod by Bolton/Trump ect
Definitely funded and armed by US !
Just as in Venezuela.

Plus- bare in mind the main motive will be western public voter deception, same as anti Russia/ Skripal, Anti Syria / chloride. Venezuela/opposition.

Criminal psychopath profile tells us -> USA Trump.

Zanon , Jun 14, 2019 3:29:59 AM | 216
Meanwhile Twitter censorship thousands of iranian accounts. Pro-american accounts for war is of course never removed.

Twitter has announced that it is removing 4,779 accounts associated or backed by Tehran, the latest strike in the ongoing anti-Iran campaign perfectly timed to coincide with the attack on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman.
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/461825-iran-trolls-gulf-tonkin-twitter/

Don Bacon

Iran removed a mine from a ship, so that proves that Iran put it there!

Indeed, that is the illogical proapganda MSM use now, very disturbing. Its Tonkin once again.

Not to mention, is it iranians? Is it a mine to begin with? Is that really how you handle a mine? Just pull it off with your bare hands around 10 plus people on a small boat?
Interesting also that US just happend to be there spying.

Hmpf , Jun 14, 2019 3:51:24 AM | 217
IRO that 'high-res' video footage from the usual suspects.

By coincidence they've had a surveillance drone or a chopper on location? Maybe, I don't know.
The Iranians do have the means to spot drones and choppers, we do know this ever since they hijacked and/or crashed RQ-170 and MQ-9 vehicles a couple of years back.
Are we to believe them - the Iranians - being that stupid to launching such an operation while knowing full well they are being watched by their main adversary?

Regarding technicalities:
Iran has got the know-how to build limpet mines? So it must have been done by Iranian forces? You don't say. Building a limpet mine is trivial. Get your hands on a bunch of Nd-magnets, a 3rd grade chemist cooking up a couple of kilos of a HEI composition, a mechanical engineer for the hardware and a physicist assisting in creating the fusing system and you're all set.

I, for one, am being positive Lichtenstein did it - most likely on direct orders of the ruling prince - after all there's chemists, physicists and mechanical engineers inhabiting that tiny speck of land.

Zanon , Jun 14, 2019 3:52:51 AM | 218
Would be intreresting if iranians actually picked up a mine though and it was an american made, israeli made mine. Iran has a big chance now to frame the incident.
Peter AU 1 , Jun 14, 2019 4:10:26 AM | 219
Japans oil imports by country for 2018.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/761568/japan-crude-oil-import-by-country/

"Japan expects a limited impact from the U.S. decision not to renew waivers previously granted on Iran oil import sanctions, the country's trade and industry minister said Tuesday."
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/04/23/business/meti-says-japan-foresees-little-impact-u-s-scrapping-iran-oil-waivers/#.XQNTg3r5XtQ

The majority of Japans oil imports come through the Hormuz Strait. Probably wasn't a good idea for Abe to trot off to Iran at Trump's bidding.

Mark2 , Jun 14, 2019 4:31:47 AM | 220
Good points zanon
To add - If the US start all-out War with Iran, how many refugees would that create ? millions !
And if so, would we blame them/ the victems and drive them back from safety to the conflict area, or do we blame the US and demand they compensate their victems.
If we are to return to a sane world, the perpetrators MUST pay the price and receive full punishment .
American politicians always say ' we will do what is in America's interest' and right there is the problem - - - not able to anticipate the outcome of there own actions !
Example - all recent conflict.
One definition of insanity is making the same mistake over and over again !!
Arioch , Jun 14, 2019 4:47:32 AM | 221
Meanwhile Russia committed new batch of tests for Arctic-specific anti-air missiles, TOR-M2DT

https://lenta.ru/news/2019/06/14/torm2dt/

Reportedly, shooting was proceeded at maneuvering targets and in radio warfare environment

Wolle , Jun 14, 2019 5:09:27 AM | 222
This picture shows something:
https://heise.cloudimg.io/width/2000/q75.png-lossy-75.webp-lossy-75.foil1/_www-heise-de_/tp/imgs/89/2/6/9/6/1/8/2/hormus-9703e11223eece26.JPG
(it's also in some other german online media portals)
Most likely the damage caused by small limpet mines.
This devices can't sink a tankship particularly with a double hull.
It was definitly not a torpedo, an anti ship missile or a huge sea mine.
An Iranian coast watch or rescue boat retrieved an unexploded limpet mine from the other ship(Front Altair). IMHO it's normal to remove dangerous things before starting rescue operations. The USN/CENTCOM claims Iran try to hide something. This is also quite common. ;-)
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2019/06/13/video-shows-iranians-removing-limpet-mine-tanker-centcom-says.html
Yeah, Right , Jun 14, 2019 6:33:20 AM | 223
@224 Bizarre. The photo shows the limped mine on the starboard side of the ship. The video from the Bainbridge shows the Iranians removing that limped mine on the port side of the ship.

The photo doesn't appear reversed - the name is clearly seen - so why would the US reverse the video?

somebody , Jun 14, 2019 6:34:19 AM | 224
Posted by: All Forone | Jun 14, 2019 1:24:48 AM | 209

Yes, they have been taking on the US for quite some time now. No, they are not crazy.

They have been doing this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMaRO8NVfjc

In case you wonder - Iran is the guy who did NOT get his tongue stuck.

Curtis , Jun 14, 2019 6:44:24 AM | 225
Okay, not a torpedo. Now it's a mine. But wait a minute, the Japanese say something was flying above the water. The US shows a video of the Iranians removing a limpet mine. The Japanese contest the "assessment" of the US and the US video shows the Iranians removing a mine NOT placing one.
The story gets stranger as the neoclowns push for war.
TEP , Jun 14, 2019 7:08:29 AM | 226
@18 b
Spot on. Time will tell how risky that was .... for us all.
Jen , Jun 14, 2019 7:27:31 AM | 227
James @ 212:

Try this Payvand.com link .

The other Wikipedia-connected link was the best I could find and the Payvand.com link is about second-best.

Walter , Jun 14, 2019 8:37:51 AM | 228
If infact the Iranians did recover from either ship an explosive machine, a mine, flying machine, rocket, unexploded torpedo,etc, or indeed any forensic material, that and the debriefings of the crews will make for great political theater...that stuff is fairly festooned with serial numbers... "film at 11", as they used to say...
William Gruff , Jun 14, 2019 8:58:52 AM | 229
Imagine the consternation in Langley!

"What? Only three booms? But we gave those idiots we hired four mines to attach to that ship! Oh, cr@p, the place is swarming with drones by now. What do we do about the fourth mine now? Can we pretend the Cubans stole it from us with their killer crickets and gave it to Iran?

Frank , Jun 14, 2019 9:16:56 AM | 230
Moon of Alabama lost all credibility with this article. Israel has a huge online troll party going on blaming Iran for this. Attack 2 tankers tied to Japanese interests,while the Japanese Leader is conferring with Iran's leader, outside the mouth of the Persian Gulf is too much codswallop to swallow.
Great Blue , Jun 14, 2019 9:26:57 AM | 231
Two comments: "Blamed Iran but did not present any evidence" says it all. These incidents remind one of the Vietnam Gulf of Tonkin "incident" in which the US government claimed their forces were attacked by North Vietnam. Subsequently it was proven by the NSA and others that there was no attack. It was simply propaganda to give the Americans an excuse to escalate the war. It would surprise no one, if it turned out that the US or Saudi's hired black operatives to stage these attacks so that they could escalate tensions with Iran.

and.

It was previously reported that the limpet mine was still attached to the ship. So why didn't the US, in need of solid evidence, go to the ship and remove the mine thereby obtaining hard evidence that could be evaluated? Instead, the US did nothing, Iran undertook its removal not wanting it to explode which makes sense. Then the US used it's removal by others to suggest complicity. The US is either incompetent or just making plots up (lying as usual). Iran's removal of the mine means nothing.

librul , Jun 14, 2019 9:29:19 AM | 232
I came to this article fully expecting another update from b

Don't see it. Is it being proofread at this moment?

The latest word is that some of the crew saw "flying objects" "shortly before the explosion".

Drones?

ALSO, the explosions were above the waterline. Mines are not known to behave like flying fish and jump out of the water at ships.

Update pending?

Grieved , Jun 14, 2019 9:33:00 AM | 233
@196 Anon - I agree

@134 Yonatan - A little frightener to Japan - this makes great sense and should have been obvious. Thanks for pointing it out.

@198 psychohistorian - it was a mouthful, but actually makes sense. Anon is saying that under the guise of seeming to be provoked and acting purely in reaction (to the bad actions of Iran, etc), the US is actually exerting and expanding its power in the region, all the while making the narrative say that it's the other unruly elements causing the ruckus.

I agree with Anon that it's more a case that a psy-ops theater has intensified, which tells several departments of the empire that the game can get a little harsher, and they can get away with it. It doesn't hurt that increased violence and aggravation on the region will raise the price of oil, which fits US thinking. In fact, with Bolton accusing Iran of trying to raise the price of oil, we now know with virtual certainty that these words reflect a US intention somewhere in the mix.

[Sidebar: Funny how they never dropped that old propaganda thing of accusing the target of your own actions before the target can accuse you of this act. I suspect this is an ancient ploy of evildoers - when you can't seize the moral high ground because you have no place there, then you must steal the moral high ground. Plunder and occupation by another name.]

The warning to Japan to hold steady to its western mission is very plausible. And anything that happens can be blamed on Iran anyway - the perfect patsy for all kinds of mayhem. And still Israel would like to provoke the US military into a suicidal attack on Iran.

So, several incentives for several players, several actions, and more to come, all under the virtual fog of virtual war.

Great Blue , Jun 14, 2019 9:35:35 AM | 234
The US has claimed that the tanker attacks showed "a level of sophistication implicating a nation, not a random terrorist". Again this is pure bullshit and propaganda from the Trump bunch. I recall the attack on the guided missile carrier, USS Cole in which the ship was damaged and a number of sailors were killed. The USS Cole was attacked successfully by a small fiberglass boat loaded with C4. Successful yet hardly "sophisticated". The US has been selling limpet mines and other armaments to every whack job group and country for decades. That a few of these made it onto a small boat and were delivered to the tankers is hardly surprising and does not require any sophistication at all. So once again, we have deception, lies, and war mongering coming out of the Blight House and its Trumpian orifices.
jared , Jun 14, 2019 9:43:32 AM | 235
I am guessing those Iranian mine removers accidentally left passport behind?
Or was flag on boat and Iranian Guard uniforms were give-away.
Thank goodness for the I/C - you can never have enough intelligence (or war).
Brave heart , Jun 14, 2019 9:50:47 AM | 236
This is my first time commenting in this blog. With all due respect to the writer and the quality of his journalism, sometimes it is easy to miss the distinction between causality versus correlation between events.
We tend to find patterns where they might not exist. From Iranian perspective, it was the first time they were being sanctioned for petrochemical materials versus raw oil. Not a fan of any government, but I believe true journalism should stay away from any judgment or speculation.
Thanks for all the great articles and analyses.
james , Jun 14, 2019 10:17:56 AM | 237
@227 jen... that link doesn't work either... maybe it is something on my end?

@235 jared... sounds about right!!

William Kierath , Jun 14, 2019 10:18:58 AM | 238
Has anyone thought it might be in the interests of the US which has a Glut of oil and want's to keep the price up and the Stock Market up too?
james , Jun 14, 2019 10:20:25 AM | 239
craig murrays take on it - The Gulf of Credibility
Seby , Jun 14, 2019 10:24:00 AM | 240
UAE
Seby , Jun 14, 2019 10:24:59 AM | 241
I meant uae
dh , Jun 14, 2019 10:26:55 AM | 242
@237 Just delete the / at the end of the URL. Happens a lot for some reason.
Don Bacon , Jun 14, 2019 10:30:09 AM | 243
"flying objects" = drones?
...from JapanToday
Operator of tanker says sailors saw 'flying objects' just before attack
The Japanese operator ship operator of one of two oil tankers attacked near the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday said that sailors on board its vessel, the Kokuka Courageous, saw "flying objects" just before the attack, suggesting the tanker wasn't damaged by mines.
That account contradicts what the U.S. military has said as it released a video it says shows Iranian forces removing an unexploded limpet mine from one of the two ships in the suspected attack.
Speaking at a news conference in Tokyo, Yutaka Katada, president of Kokuka Sangyo Co, said he believes the flying objects seen by the sailors could be bullets, and denied possibility of mines or torpedoes because the damages were above the ship's waterline. He called reports of mine attack "false." . . here

Don Bacon , Jun 14, 2019 10:41:17 AM | 244
from a limpet-skeptic
The two tanker vessels attacked Thursday are adrift in the Gulf of Oman today as the U.S. military is directing everyone's attention to a newly released, low-resolution video that allegedly shows a group of people in a watercraft removing an unexploded mine from the damaged hull of the M/T Kokuka Courageous in broad daylight and in clear view of the U.S. Navy's guided-missile destroyer, USS Bainbridge.
U.S. Central Command claims the small watercraft in the video belongs to Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps: "an IRGC Gashti Class patrol boat," according to one of two evening statements by CENTCOM officials.
Worth noting: The boat's clear and distinct connection to Iran or the IRGC, however, is not evident in the video itself. Nor is it clear from the video (1) where the boat came from, (2) who the occupants were, (3) whether what was allegedly removed was in fact a limpet mine (as the OSINT folks at Bellingcat pointed out this morning), or (4) where the boat went to after its occupants concluded their activity from the side of the Courageous. . . here
james , Jun 14, 2019 10:44:40 AM | 245
@242 dh... thanks... jens link now works.. i will remember that for the future...

willy b at sst's site comments - The Tanker Attacks In the Gulf of Oman: Cui Bono?

by Willy B

arby , Jun 14, 2019 10:56:48 AM | 246
James

I liked the first comment--

"

Isn't it amazing how the Enemy-of-the-day always does exactly what you want it to do when you want it to?

Posted by: Patrick Armstrong | 14 June 2019 at 10:15 AM "

james , Jun 14, 2019 10:57:57 AM | 247
'Flying Object' Struck Tanker in Gulf of Oman, Operator Says, Not a Mine nyt article....

@244 don bacon - your link isn't working..

comment from craig murray poster spencer eagle- "There's one glaring thing wrong about that US video of Iranians allegedly removing a limpet mine from that tanker, too many spectators. Even if they did plant the mine, no crew in their right minds would gather round as their colleague made safe a live mine from a bobbing boat."

james , Jun 14, 2019 10:59:00 AM | 248
@arby - lol... patrick is pretty insightful...
Don Bacon , Jun 14, 2019 10:59:30 AM | 249
@james
link works for me
EricT , Jun 14, 2019 11:00:05 AM | 250
It would be interesting to checkout the Call Option and Oil contract activity prior to the attack.
Don Bacon , Jun 14, 2019 11:00:19 AM | 251
from LongWarJournal
Yemen's Houthis target Saudi airports
Over the span of 24 hours, Yemen's Houthi insurgent movement has twice targeted the Abha international airport with missiles and suicide drones.
At least 26 people were wounded on Wednesday after the Houthis launched a cruise missile at the Abha airport. Video of the bombing released by Saudi Arabia shows the moment the missile struck the airport. The use of a cruise missile on a civilian infrastructure represents a major shift in the war between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi insurgents.
Speaking to the Houthi-ran Al Masirah News, an official spokesman said that the strike came in response to Saudi aggression in Yemen and civilians should avoid "vital and military areas as they have become legitimate targets to us." . . here
james , Jun 14, 2019 11:03:13 AM | 252
@249 don.. i tried it again and it works.. weird... thanks..
Barbarossa , Jun 14, 2019 11:09:24 AM | 253
These tanker attacks have Butthead and Pompusass written all over them. Butthead and Pompusass - meglomania at its finest.
mk , Jun 14, 2019 11:12:47 AM | 254

I've just seen the Navy video. I've got some problems with the shadows. They seem too long.

The incident has supposedly happened at 4 pm local time. The location is almost exactly situated on the Tropic of Cancer, i.e now, Mid June, the sun creates almost vertically shadows at midday. At 4 pm, the angle should still be 60 degree or so. Correspondingly the shadows should still be very short. The shadows in the video to me appear to be created by a 30 degree sun angle at most. This is of course only a preliminary estimation.

Bottom line: The video doesn't match the supposed time and location of the incidence.

Don Bacon , Jun 14, 2019 11:13:12 AM | 255
Trump says tanker attack 'has Iran written all over it' as Tehran denies involvement
"Iran did do it, and you know they did it because you saw the boat" . . here
and here's the boat. High-resolution it ain't.

Also lacking any resolution is what can the US do next, since its options are severely limited.
IMO Iran has the US by the short hairs. In fact Iran may provide an encore,just to rub it in.

Jackrabbit , Jun 14, 2019 11:14:48 AM | 256
Drone-delivered limpet mines?
Arioch , Jun 14, 2019 11:20:38 AM | 257
Correct map links from #206/207 and #227 were:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Iranian_borders_in_Omans_and_Persian_Gulf_(Cro).PNG
http://www.payvand.com/news/16/jan/Farsi-Island-in-Persian-Gulf.jpg

Notice - they end with the file name, not with a folder name ( no "/" slash on the end ).

Dunno how people manage to insert that extra slash to the end.
Without it both links work ok.

Virgile , Jun 14, 2019 11:21:17 AM | 258
After hundred of sanctions on Iran, Trump is now faced with a tough decision.
1- Order military attacks on Iran and start a tit for tat escalation that would to a disaster in the region and hampers Trump re-election
2 Attack Iran's so called proxies: Hezbollah, Houthis, Syria then regional allies of the USA, ie the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Israel will get more of these 'mini attacks' that will disrupt oil supplies and Israel security. These attacks will show the world that Trump's big talk and economical sanctions are totally ineffective

I think that while Iran may not be responsible for the attacks in the Oman Gulf, I am sure that they condone them without hesitation. Who ever is doing it intentionaly or not is giving to Iran a posture that Trump will have to match.

That is why Trump's only choice other than war is to fire Bolton and scapegoat him at the risk of losing the Israeli lobby and the neocons support for his re election.
Yet if he wants to keep the Israeli lobbies support, Trump will need to have Netanyahu re-elected..
That is his only choice
Already foreign medias are demonizing Bolton as a prelude to his firing
Is John Bolton the most dangerous man in the world?

Zanon , Jun 14, 2019 11:22:51 AM | 259
Intersting that the boarding crew on one of the boat were russians, also a puzzle?

Don Bacon

US could of course do anything they want, as they have in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan - you name it.
Next thing could be an explosion on a military US frigate or something similar. We all know who would be blamed and call for US attacks would be real simple.

Don Bacon , Jun 14, 2019 11:25:29 AM | 260
from CDR Salamander
Let's break that in to little bits.
1. No USA ships are involved.
2. No USA citizens are involved.
3. No USA territory or waters are involved.
4. All cargo was headed to Asia.
. . .This. Is. Not. Our. Problem.
What is Norway doing? Japan? They are both our allies, but they have the lead on this - not us.
Who really benefits from this? It isn't Iran. It certainly is not the USA.
Everyone needs to take a powder and take a step back.
This talk of military action this soon is insanity. This is irresponsible. . . here
Jackrabbit , Jun 14, 2019 11:28:20 AM | 261
If drone-delivered: the mines would be heavy so a long-range drone would be needed. However, if the drone took off from a near-by ship then then a less complex drone could be used. But a small ship lacks space for a runway. It would need some sort of launcher/catapult. Oh, here's one .

What ships were in the area?

Zanon , Jun 14, 2019 11:32:59 AM | 262
What is needed now is information what really happend - I dont see any info on what was actually happend but people that call for war.
Was it a mine? Missile? Torped? Grenade? Lets say it was a type of missile that was produced by nation X, who fired it?
Who/what was put there?
Was it an exercise that these ships accidently moved in to? - Was it an accident?
jared , Jun 14, 2019 11:38:34 AM | 263
@Don Bacon

Relates to security of transport through the straight.
If Iran were in fact responsible, would make me question their sanity.
Barring that they are insane, I cannot see how it could be Iran, could be anybody except Iran.
To state the obvious: Look at motive and opportunity.
If Trump were not insane/idiot, he might suggest that there are many with possible motive and that it should be carefully investigated before action or even comment is made - more babies from incubators and dead ducks. How stupid is Trump really.

UFO's Are Real! , Jun 14, 2019 11:41:32 AM | 264
"Our crew said that the ship was attacked by a flying object," Mr. Katada said of the incident on Thursday.

What kind of flying object? Apparently it is as of yet unidentified.

In other words, the NYT is reporting that the operator of the ship is claiming that the ship was hit by a UFO (Unidentified Flying Object.) Whoo, Whoo!

Don Bacon , Jun 14, 2019 11:43:15 AM | 265
Iran tightens the screws....
from TehranTimes
B-Team launching 'sabotage diplomacy' against Iran, Zarif warns
TEHRAN – Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on Friday accused Washington of jumping "to make allegations against Iran without a shred of factual or circumstantial evidence" as two oil tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday. . . here
Zanon , Jun 14, 2019 11:44:16 AM | 266
The propaganda war has already been won by the US, it is Iran Iran Iran and the MSM and even some people here talk about Iran having or might have some culpability. Meanwhile NO ONE could show any evidence or reason for the argument.
Think about that, how easily desinformation works and how illogical it really is.
Don Bacon , Jun 14, 2019 11:52:41 AM | 267
@ jr 261
[Drone] would need some sort of launcher/catapult
Couldn't it be a rotary-wing drone like they sell at Verizon?
Oscar Peterson , Jun 14, 2019 11:58:43 AM | 268
@James 239

Murray makes good points--as usual. The bit out the Norwegian tanker's owners having a history of cooperation with the Iranian government is interesting.

@mk 254

The timeline in the CENTCOM release is interesting, claiming that the alleged IRGC craft arrived at the Japanese ship around 0800 but didn't take the "limpet mine" or whatever it was until 1600. If the boat were IRGC and was trying to remove evidence--a command-detonated explosive that failed to explode?--you'd think they would do it immediately. Also, I can't tell what kind of video the released clip is--EO or IR? It doesn't look like EO taken in daylight.


Zanon , Jun 14, 2019 12:01:02 PM | 269
Important comment at Craig Murray's blog:

The american admiral in charge is fanatically anti-iranian:


It is important to realize that Chief of Naval O[erations Admiral John Richardson, a creature of former Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter, is taking the lead in this warmongering against Iran.

He and Carter were opposed to the nuclear agreement that the Obama administration worked out with Tehran, and are now working to deneuclarize the Iranian regime.

Richardson had the Navy look allegedly for those two sunk subs found soon after they disappeared, the USS Scorpion and Thresther, when they were actually looking for the USS Batfish and Puffer which were sunk in 1982 in the Anglo-American War against Sweden soon after Ricgardson joined the submarine corps.

He is a full blown warmonger against America's alleged enemies.


https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2019/06/the-gulf-of-credibility/comment-page-1/#comment-874155
jared , Jun 14, 2019 12:03:46 PM | 270
I am surprised to see some posters and Bevin proposing that maybe it was Iran, at this point.
Seems premature. Though it is possible, barring substantial evidence, it would be my starting point that that is the least likely scenario.
And the jump to conclusion (as by Trump et al) suggests bias or motive.
Jackrabbit , Jun 14, 2019 12:04:09 PM | 271
There are also helicopter drones .

Here's another catapult drone and this video also shows drone recovery via wire from a mast .

Distance to target would be reduced by heavy mines but using multiple drones would help with that problem.

<> <> <> <> <> <>

It's not just the drone tech that's important. If you're going to do a 'op' like this where you want guaranteed non-attribution, then you've got to have the tech well tested and very reliable. A drone failure or mission foul-up could be devastating.

So, its not an off-the shelf drone and it's a hand-picked crew that has been trained on such a mission over months and it's "off the books" and it's carried out by an organization that can ensure secrecy (implying intelligence organization). Thus, a "state actor".

Don Bacon , Jun 14, 2019 12:06:28 PM | 272
I think that concluding now that Iran didn't do it is a mistake.
> We don't know who did it.
> Tehran clearly indicated it had enough of the US aggressive baseless sanctions, and would do something.
> Tehran is controlling the discourse ("lack of evidence," etc).
> US (AKA world-power) choices are extremely limited; Iran's aren't.
jared , Jun 14, 2019 12:07:34 PM | 273
OT: Excellent posting by (in my layman's opinion) excellent site for info and comment and excellent author:
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2019/06/01/brainwashing-in-action-pence-hails-virtue-of-certain-war/
h , Jun 14, 2019 12:10:52 PM | 274
Man, people still don't get Trump's voters.

Virgil suggests above that Trump's only choices to deal with this incident is to start a war or fire Bolton. He goes onto suggest if Trump fired Bolton he'd lose the neocon vote and Israel's support.

WRONG. Please go to conservative sites. Any of them. During the primaries and campaign. Read and learn for yourself what the conservative voter was demanding of the nominee in comment sections. Please. Folks make these declarations that are not true. Trump voters do not want war. Trump voters do not want regime changes. And Trump voters are as suspicious if not more so of Bolton than many here are.

Neocons aka Never Trumpers after the campaign took their toys and left the right side of the aisle. They embraced their kissing cousins the neo libs who own the Dem Party. Conservatives loathe the neocons. The neocons loathe conservatives.

Only warmongers and its profiteers want war - NeoCons and NeoLibs. The rest of us Americans - right, left, middle, indy, green whatever DO NOT WANT WAR WITH ANY DAMNED BODY.

Don Bacon , Jun 14, 2019 12:12:11 PM | 275
@ Zanon 269
The american admiral in charge is fanatically anti-iranian:
The CNO has no authority over naval operations, that takes place in the combat commands, CENTCOM (Tampa) in this case.
jared , Jun 14, 2019 12:13:48 PM | 276
More on topic:
Voice of reason (nails it as usual)-
https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2019/06/14/seven-reasons-to-be-highly-skeptical-of-the-gulf-of-oman-incident/
librul , Jun 14, 2019 12:17:30 PM | 277
@various

Isn't it amazing how the Enemy-of-the-day always does exactly what you want it to do when you want it to?

that about sums it up

Don Bacon , Jun 14, 2019 12:19:18 PM | 278
Johstone linked @ 276
". . .the US has been provoking Iran with extremely aggressive and steadily tightening sanctions, which means that even if Tehran is behind the attacks, it would not be the aggressor and the attacks would most certainly not have been "unprovoked". Economic sanctions are an act of war; if China were to do to America's economy what America is doing to Iran's, the US would be in a hot war with China immediately. It could technically be possible that Iran is pushing back on US aggressions and provocations, albeit in a strange and neoconservatively convenient fashion."
Don Bacon , Jun 14, 2019 12:19:50 PM | 279
sorry, Johnstone
jared , Jun 14, 2019 12:20:32 PM | 280
@h

Excellent comment.
But neocons and zionists are taking over the Trump agenda.
Trump supporters are becoming confused about what they support - they support Trump so they are increasingly defending this ziocon crap.

But your point is I think very excellent, the public (and Trumps original supporters in particular) does not want war (with the exception of some religious kooks, perhaps).

jared , Jun 14, 2019 12:23:05 PM | 281
@Don Bacon

Yes, it is possible.
But why would that be important to note, at this point?
Many things are possible.

Don Bacon , Jun 14, 2019 12:26:40 PM | 282
Neocons aren't solely responsible for anything, but depended upon support form "liberals" AKA neo-libs for the various mistaken wars. That includes people like: Gore, Biden, Obama, and the Clintons.
Trump is anti-establishment for the most part so that is a good thing, in regard to Russia for one specific thing, but nothing in life is perfect.
Don Bacon , Jun 14, 2019 12:29:02 PM | 283
@ jared 281
What are you talking about?
Zanon , Jun 14, 2019 12:32:15 PM | 284
Don Bacon

Trump has been as bad on Russia as the "establishment" - perhaps even worse, its a myth that Trump appease Russia.

Jackrabbit , Jun 14, 2019 12:33:48 PM | 285
I would remind everyone that the greatest pressure against US+allies strategy of economic strangulation of Iran and Syria is the current operation to retake Idlib.

Yesterday's attacks against shipping will almost certainly be used as an excuse to increase US troop levels and/or act belligerently in defense of their "interests" such as retaining Idlib.

From SST (see link provided by james @245):

As for what the US might do about it, the New York Times reports that yesterday morning, after the news of the attack began to break, there was a previously scheduled meeting in "the Tank" at the Pentagon, involving Shanahan, Dunford and other top officials to discuss threats in the Middle East and US troop levels. The Times reports that weeks prior Centcom chief Gen. McKenzie had actually asked for 20,000 troops but that Dunford expressed the fear that if that many were ordered to the Gulf, it would be provocative "and perhaps a sign that, despite denials, the Trump administration's real goal was regime change." [Note: 1,500 troops were reported to have been approved] Prior to yesterday's meeting Shanahan and Dunford were ready to make the case that Mr. Trump had told the Pentagon to reduce American forces and United States involvement in the current wars in the Middle East, and avoid direct confrontation with Iran ...
Don Bacon , Jun 14, 2019 12:37:38 PM | 286
Now Tehran has the option to say to the US: Drop those thirteen demands and we'll talk.
It has other options also, now that the air has been cleared a bit.
Khamenei will have to approve whatever it is, and he's a realist
Peter AU 1 , Jun 14, 2019 12:39:52 PM | 287
https://www.bs-shipmanagement.com/en/media/emergency-response
14 June 2019
Media Statement
"Update - Kokuka Courageous incident – Gulf of Oman
The Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement (BSM) managed product carrier Kokuka Courageous is now safely undertow in the Gulf of Oman heading towards Kalba Anchorage, UAE....

...The vessel was about 70 nautical miles from Fujairah and about 16 nautical miles from the coast of Iran
BSM is actively monitoring the situation in the Gulf of Oman and will issue another statement when we have further details."
....

A search of the internet brings up no photos whatsoever of this ship under tow or at any time after it was attacked... apart from the microsoft paint job. I guess the damage does not match the US narrative.

karlof1 , Jun 14, 2019 12:40:46 PM | 288
Seriously, a drone attaching a limpet mine?! Please use your brains before proposing something that ludicrous!

Why not look at what occurred in the Brent Oil Market for drones instead. This chart shows trading volume and price before and after event. What you see is a massive shorting followed by covering, followed by another short play, then further covering. Some entity(ies) made a lot of money with their prior knowledge of the event. The tankers didn't need to be sunk to drive that play; just a little Flare to provide visibility. How do I know what's depicted by the chart is shorting followed by covering? I've seen such behavior a great number of times before, particularly in the run-up to the massive financial takedown in 2007-8 when many mortgage writing firms were shorted massively so they could be bought-up for next to nothing. Such behavior has CIA/Mossad stamped all over it, which is what I thought to begin with.

Zack , Jun 14, 2019 12:41:54 PM | 289
Politico: Trump points the finger at Iran for oil tanker attacks

Pompeo:

Well, Iran did do it. You know they did it, because you saw the boat, I guess one of the mines didn't explode and it's probably got, essentially, Iran written all over it," he said. "And you saw the boat at night trying to take the mine off , and successfully took the mine off the boat and that was exposed. And that was their boat, that was them. And they didn't want the evidence left behind.

Trump:

While Trump added that Iran must not have known the U.S. has nighttime surveillance capabilities , a timeline from U.S. Central Command accompanying the video's release indicates the apparent mine removal happened in broad daylight , which would make the operation even more brazen."

Hmmmm........

These attacks could have only been the work of a sophisticated nation state actor. Specifically a sophisticated nation state actor that does not know that the US has "nighttime surveillance capabilities".

The US has officially jumped the shark.

Don Bacon , Jun 14, 2019 12:42:00 PM | 290
@ Zanon 284
Trump has been as bad on Russia as the "establishment"
Not by choice, I believe, and the US president is not a total dictator. Often he must do what he's told, especially when the establishment (especially the "intelligence" community) is out to get him, and they don't take prisoners.
Don Bacon , Jun 14, 2019 12:45:57 PM | 291
@ karlof 288
Seriously, a drone attaching a limpet mine?! Please use your brains ..
Where did you read that?
A reference would be helpful.
Or are you kidding. Must be. So say so?
Don Bacon , Jun 14, 2019 12:48:41 PM | 292
The US has not only lost the narrative, it has royally screwed the pooch, getting in deeper and deeper with its falsehoods. Can a laughing-stock rule the world?
somebody , Jun 14, 2019 12:50:33 PM | 293
Posted by: h | Jun 14, 2019 12:10:52 PM | 274

I agree. Trump can only do this election wise if it is a quick campaign that lets him claim victory fast and does not involve dying US soldiers.

As is, there is a huge problem already for the US to leave Afghanistan.

Saudi might have been crazy enough to do it as they need serious help with the Houthis.
I doubt Israel is interested in a war that might get them into Hezbollah's crosshairs.

I don't think, by the way, that economic problems from the sanctions are forcing Iran, as there is this Chinese - Pakistan - Iran sea route. There is also a connection to Russia via the Caspian . And I don't doubt they have good relations to the -stans.

They simply own one of the most strategic places the world has to offer. With mountains .

And they have something like a 2500 year tradition of empire and strategy .


[Jun 10, 2019] Energy Dominance Or Flatulence Shale Drillers Bleed Cash Zero Hedge

Notable quotes:
"... This is classic overproduction based on time-preference mis-coordinating the use of capital due to artificially-low interest rates. It has nothing to do with a normally functioning market. ..."
Jun 10, 2019 | www.zerohedge.com

Authored by Tom Luongo,

All of President Trump's foreign policy can be summed up by two themes, making the world safe for Israel and controlling the price of energy.

He calls the latter "Energy Dominance." And to those who still believe Trump has a plan, these two things are the only ones consistently in evidence.

His reactions to things contrary to his plan, however, are purely limbic.

These two themes converge completely with Iran. Trump wants Iran neutered to force Jared Kushner's now-delayed again , "Deal of the Century" onto the Palestinians while also taking Iran's oil off the market to support surging U.S. domestic production in the hopes of taking market share permanently.

Everything Trump does is in support of these two themes while throwing some red meat at his base over China, Mexico and the border.

It was never his intention to leave Syria back in December, really. Look how easy was it for John Bolton and the Joint Chiefs to convince him to stay because how else would we cut Iran's exports to zero if we didn't stop the land route through Iraq?

This is why we're still harboring ISIS cells in the desert crossing around Al-Tanf at the Jordan/Iraq/Syria border, to stop Iranian oil from coming into the country.

This feeds right into hurting all of Syria's allies to strengthen Israel's position.

To paraphrase the song from Aladdin, "It's stupid, but hey, it's home."

If the average Trump voter truly understood the lengths we are going to starve the Syrian army from having enough energy to finish wiping out the Al-Qaeda-linked groups in Idlib and Homs provinces they would burn their MAGA hats and stay home next November.

But they don't so Trump's approval rating keeps climbing.

On the other hand, people mostly understand exactly what the "Bay of Fat Pigs" operation in Venezuela was all about, protecting domestic oil production and getting control of Venezuela's.

The sad truth is that many Americans consider this comeuppance for being stupid enough to elect Nicolas Maduro President.

But this is the guts of Trump's "Energy Dominance" policy. Use tariffs, sanctions, threats and hybrid warfare to destroy the competition and therefore MAGA.

It would be sad if it wasn't so pathetic.

And the irony is that the whole plan is predicated on sustainable and nigh-exponential growth of U.S. domestic production.

There's only one problem with that. It's completely unsustainable.

The greatness of the U.S. production story is evident if you only look at the number of barrels produced. But that story turns into a nightmare the minute you look one inch deeper to see what the cost of those barrels are and what profit, if any, they produce.

From Zerohedge via Nick Cunningham at Oilprice.com comes this beauty of an image:

Heading into 2019, the industry promised to stake out a renewed focus on capital discipline and shareholder returns. But that vow is now in danger of becoming yet another in a long line of unmet goals.

"Another quarter, another gusher of red ink," the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, along with the Sightline Institute, wrote in a joint report on the first quarter earnings of the shale industry.

The report studied 29 North American shale companies and found a combined $2.5 billion in negative free cash flow in the first quarter. That was a deterioration from the $2.1 billion in negative cash flow from the fourth quarter of 2018. " This dismal cash flow performance came despite a 16 percent quarter-over-quarter decline in capital expenditures," the report's authors concluded.

So, higher cash burn rates at high sale prices (remember Q1 here) and lower capex costs as the rig count hits a fifteen-month low .

You can't hide a lack of profitability forever with financial engineering folks. Even Elon Musk is beginning to figure this out. And, once that reaches critical mass, to quote one of my favorite philosophers, The Tick, "Gravity is a harsh mistress."

What was that old joke?

"So if we're selling dollars for ninety-cents how do we make money?"

"Volume."

If that doesn't sum up where we are today in the energy space I don't know what does.

All of this is a product of the Fed's ridiculous zero-bound interest rate policy allowing energy drillers to issue obscene amounts of low-quality shares and lower-quality debt packaged in such a way to yield the magic 7.5% most pension funds need to maintain their defined benefit payouts without going broke.

This cycle is only partially derailed by the Fed raising rates a couple of points to 2.75%.

All Trump cares about is getting a 4% GDP print before next year's election to prove his critics wrong. This is why he wants the Fed to lower rates.

It will keep the shale boom going pumping massive amounts of oil which we can't ship to the coasts to sell to people who don't want it.

And even if all of the new pipeline capacity alleviates the internal glut that doesn't mean there's a market for more of it. Remember, shale produces ultra light sweet crude which most refiners have to blend with heavier feedstock so there really is an upper limit as to how much of this stuff the market wants.

The current and persistent discount of West Texas to Brent, which is still over $9 per barrel is a measure of this since most oil is priced in relation to Brent, even heavy sour grades like Russian Urals, which we're importing more of to feed domestic refineries strapped for stock now that we've embargoes Venezuelan oil.

If the shale boom is so sustainable why are frackers flaring off obscene amounts of natural gas that comes along with it ? Why are they wasting what should be salable energy? Maybe because there's no market for it?

Rystad puts it into context, noting that the most productive gas facility in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico – Shell's Mars-Ursa complex – produces about 260 to 270 MMcfd of gross natural gas. In other words, the most productive gas project in the Gulf of Mexico only produces about 40 percent of the volume of gas that is being flared and vented in West Texas and New Mexico every single day.

Given this situation I think we've reached that part of the story where someone just let a really big one rip and no one is willing to acknowledge it.

Dood Natural Gas is Awesome!

This is classic overproduction based on time-preference mis-coordinating the use of capital due to artificially-low interest rates. It has nothing to do with a normally functioning market.

But this situation can go on a lot longer thanks to the realities outside of the U.S. shale industry.

When the Fed finally does lower interest rates it won't be to save the energy producers in North Dakota. It will be to save the banking system from a dollar liquidity shock that will implode Europe.

The market's reaction to Friday's horrific jobs report was pure front-running that rate cut mixed with safe-haven behavior knowing that the global growth story is dead.

The U.S. yield curve imploded another 6 basis points. Gold popped to a 2019 high, the Dow put in a major reversal and the euro rallied after a massive run-up in euro-bonds before the New York open reversed some of that.

And there's Trump demanding lower oil prices on Twitter which is just feeding the problems of the shale drillers already underwater. Rock meet hard place.

Dollars for eight-five cents? MOAR volume!

So Trump has gotten what he wants but not for the reasons he wants it. With growth dying thanks, in part, to his random acts of financial terror, oil prices are now in free fall.

I identified the signals for my Patrons in a Market Report on May 26th , noting a back-to-back-to-back set of reversals I deemed " hugely bearish. " Sometimes, it's just that easy. More often than not the market is telling you what you need to know, if you would only turn off the spin-machines and read the tape.

But the sad truth is that once the Fed lowers rates the drillers will be encouraged to go back to the credit well one more time because there will be even more demand for their crappy paper. In a yield-starved world everyone is trying to stave off the day of reckoning for as long as possible.

And right now, U.S. pension managers are a shale drillers' best friend. And so is an ECB trapped like an egg in a vice between a faltering German economy and political system undermining what's left of growth across Europe.

But not a U.S. President intent on creating a world few want and fewer benefit from while wasting a precious energy by the cubic shit load for a couple hundred thousand votes more than a year from now.

MAGA bitchez.

* * *

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[Jun 05, 2019] 'First bullet' fired in the Gulf will make oil prices jump above $100 Tehran

Jun 05, 2019 | www.rt.com

A full-fledged war with Tehran will tank the US economy because the fighting will immediately make the price of oil skyrocket, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader warned. US leaders will not go to war against Tehran if they care for the economic wellbeing of their country, Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, aide and adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, told Fars News Agency.

The first bullet fired in the Persian Gulf will push the oil prices well above $100. It will be unbearable for the US and Europe, as well as American allies like Japan and South Korea.

Safavi, who has led the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the past, stated that Washington prefers to wage "economic and psychological war" against the nation. The US knows there will be "significant costs" should a full-fledged conflict erupt, he said.

Also on rt.com 'Your forces will be exterminated!' Hezbollah warns US, Israel & Saudi Arabia not to attack Iran

The Pentagon had earlier announced plans to deploy marines and Patriot air defense missile systems to join an aircraft carrier strike group operating near the Persian Gulf. Officials in Tehran have been downplaying the military buildup by the US near its borders but vowed to strike back if attacked.

Last month, Iran partially suspended its commitments under the 2015 deal on its nuclear programs, known as the JCPOA. The step followed several rounds of sanctions reimposed on Iran by the US which withdrew from the agreement a year ago.

[Jun 05, 2019] Does Iran's Economic Fate Depend on a Lifeline From China?

Jun 05, 2019 | www.nakedcapitalism.com

Posted on May 30, 2019 by Yves Smith Yves here. I don't know enough about the structure of the Iranian economy to assess whether oil export revenue is as critical as this article suggests. Iran clearly needs foreign currency (exports) to buy imports like pharmaceuticals and any critical materials and products they don't produce domestically like chips.

I was under the impression that Iran had become pretty autarchical due to having been under sanctions for so long. But it may still have enough import dependence to prevent it from simply net spending. If the sanctions have indeed meaningfully reduced domestic productive capacity, "printing" would produce inflation pronto. The Western press says yes. However an academic who visited the country in the last year (but before the latest round) said they didn't see any signs of distress during several weeks there when he went about freely (and this individual spends most of his time in developing economies).

By Vijay Prashad, an Indian historian, editor and journalist. He is a writing fellow and chief correspondent at Globetrotter , a project of the Independent Media Institute. He is the chief editor of LeftWord Books and the director of Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research. He has written more than twenty books, including The Darker Nations: A People's History of the Third World (The New Press, 2007), The Poorer Nations: A Possible History of the Global South (Verso, 2013), The Death of the Nation and the Future of the Arab Revolution (University of California Press, 2016) and Red Star Over the Third World (LeftWord, 2017) . He writes regularly for Frontline, the Hindu, Newsclick, AlterNet and BirGün. Produced by Globetrotter , a project of the Independent Media Institute

It's hard to predict what will happen in the oil market as the U.S. sanctions on Iran tighten. For now, it looks like India, Japan, South Korea and Turkey will hold off from buying Iranian oil. These countries -- with China -- had been the main sources of Iran's foreign exchange. It is unlikely -- at the present time -- that India, Japan, South Korea and Turkey will break the U.S. siege on Iran. They have made it clear that they do not want to rattle the U.S. cage. Request for new waivers from the U.S. came to naught. India's government had said that it would reassess the purchases of cheap Iranian oil after the elections. It is likely that India will restart some buys, but certainly not enough to prevent economic collapse in Iran.

As the May deadline for the U.S. sanctions loomed, these countries bought vast amounts of oil from Iran to create their own buffer stocks. Revenues from the export of oil reached $50 billion for the Iranian financial year of 2018-19 (ending March 20). The oil sector contributed to 70 percent of Iran's exports. This income is essential for running Iran's government and paying its 4.6 million employees. The cost of the government is roughly $24 billion. With the collapse of sales to India, Japan, South Korea and Turkey, Iran will have a very difficult time raising revenues to maintain its economy. The National Development Fund and the hard currency reserves have already begun to be depleted, with dollar holdings now in the tens of billions.

New Silk Road

Tehran has long been hoped that China would continue to buy Iranian oil and prevent the meltdown of Iran's economy and its government. There are two reasons why China would want to ignore U.S. sanctions and continue to buy Iranian oil. The first has to do with the fact that Iran's oil is cheap and of a quality that Chinese refiners prefer. The second has to do with Iran's crucial location along the line of China's Belt and Road as well as its String of Pearls initiatives. Chaos in Iran or a government in Tehran that is pliant to the United States would be unacceptable to Beijing. Roads, trains and pipelines -- the infrastructure of the Belt and Road Initiative -- are to run from the Chinese territory through Central Asia into Iran and then outward toward West Asia and -- via Turkey -- into Europe. Iran's centrality to this project should not be underestimated.

In the first few months of 2019, China bought about half of Iran's crude oil exports. It has become a crucial pillar for Iran, whose diplomats say quite openly that if China no longer buys Iran's oil or invests in Iran, the problems for the country will be grave. Massive oil buys from China in the weeks leading to the end of the U.S. waivers are, however, no indication of the continuation of this relationship. Chinese oil companies put in large orders to stockpile oil in anticipation of the cuts. Oil analysts suggest that the two major Chinese oil importers -- China Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec) and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) have not put in any buys since the U.S. waivers expired.

Why China Is Not Buying Iranian Oil

China -- the world's fastest-growing consumer of oil -- continues to buy oil from the United States -- the world's fastest-growing producer of oil. These two countries are locked in a trade war, with tariffs rising on a raft of products from steel to soybeans. China has not placed any tariffs on U.S. crude oil imports, but it has reduced its purchases of U.S. oil by 80 percent. Despite China's withdrawal from the U.S. oil market, it has not closed the door on future purchases. Meanwhile, China has increased its oil purchases from Saudi Arabia by 43 percent in April. There is every indication that China will continue to increase its buys from the kingdom during the course of this year -- to substitute for Iranian oil and, perhaps, for U.S. oil. China has also been slowly increasing its natural gas imports from Australia, a tendency that is expected to rise.

New surveillance technology of tankers, low oil prices and more constraints on settling bills have made it difficult to smuggle oil out of Iran. Last year, smuggled oil out of Iran totaled a minuscule 0.3 million barrels per day. This is not enough to compensate for the oil purchases stopped by East and South Asian countries. U.S. sanctions, in this climate, have made tanker owners and insurers skittish about carrying Iranian oil.

Chinese firms are susceptible to this pressure. Nonetheless, the Liberian-flagged tanker Pacific Bravo is said to have loaded Iranian oil after the expiry of the waiver and is making its way to China. As of this writing, the tanker is off the coast of Sri Lanka. When it arrives in China and offloads its cargo, how will the U.S. respond?

Iran-Iraq-Syria

Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif was in Baghdad on May 26. He met with Iraq's Foreign Minister Mohamed al-Hakim, who said that Iraq's government does not believe that the "economic blockade" -- namely the U.S. sanctions -- was good for the region. "We stand with Iran in its position," Hakim said.

Earlier in May, Iraq's Oil Minister Thamer Gadhba said that his country would continue to buy Iran's natural gas -- essential for Iraq's electricity grid. This was despite U.S. pressure to cut natural gas purchases from Iran and to substitute this through a $14 billion deal with U.S. energy firms (including General Electric). Indications show that Iraq will not bend to U.S. pressure at this time. Nor will Iraq block Iranian oil from going to Syria by truck -- an energy source that is essential to Syria.

China's Shield

U.S. troops continue to arrive in the Gulf region, threatening Iran. Zarif and al-Hakim jointly said that this is a dangerous development. Pressure on Iran increases daily.

China has made it clear that it could buy Iranian oil if it can pay in yuan or euros, but it does not want to make Iran part of its dispute with the United States. The appetite to bring Iran onto the bargaining table with the United States does not exist in Beijing. Nor is Beijing willing to provide Iran with a protective shield.

But there are pressures on China not to ignore its own interests in the region. China built a large port in Gwadar, Pakistan, which was intended to circumvent the long transit of goods (and oil) from the Gulf through the Straits of Malacca to the South China Sea. But there are tensions here, as Baloch Liberation Army attacks mount on Chinese targets. One hundred and fifty kilometers west of Gwadar is the Iranian port of Chabahar, developed with Indian assistance. The United States -- at a request from the Afghan government -- has turned the other way to continued Indian involvement in that port, which includes transportation lines to the Afghan border through Iran. Iran has signaled that it would be interested in giving China a role in this port if India begins to drift away.

China has increased its engagement in West Asia, but not to the point of getting sucked into a conflict that it sees as unfortunate. What this means is that Iran cannot rely fully on China. And yet, China is the only antidote to the U.S. suffocation of Iran.

Global oil production is high, as are oil inventories. Oil prices, consequently, are low and will likely be lowered by reduced global demand. Projected low oil prices should raise more alarms in Tehran, since Iranian external revenues will decline and so too will its importance to Chinese importers. The only reason for China to throw a shield around Iran is to protect the Belt and Road Initiative. Not for the oil.


PlutoniumKun , May 30, 2019 at 2:58 am

I've no insights into the internal economy of Iran, but i would have assumed that the victory in Syria will take a lot of pressure off – its support for Assad cost Iran many billions in foreign currency which it can now hopefully wind down, especially as it looks like the Chinese and Qatari's will step up in providing recovery aid for Syria.

Another potential major source of revenue is Qatar, which is of course still in conflict with its Gulf neighbours. Qatar shares its vast off-shore gas reserves with Iran with a variety of secret protocols. It would hardly be a surprise if it turned out much of the gas they sell is in fact Iranian. The Saudis are dependent on Qatari gas for their electricity supply, so they could well be inadvertently providing funding for Iran.

But the biggest problem for Iran is surely consistent low oil prices and the fact that their main customers have built up very large stockpiles. Also, low prices for Irans other exports, such as plastics, fertilisers, copper and aluminium can't be helping. I believe climate change might also be impacting on their long term prospects for exporting agricultural produce, especially nuts and fruit. Iran future may be as dependent on avoiding drought as it is on rising oil prices.

Anon , May 30, 2019 at 9:43 am

Qatar does not export natural gas into KSA, however UAE (and Oman) is reliant on Qatari natural gas.
https://www.mei.edu/publications/energy-implications-gulf-crisis

PlutoniumKun , May 30, 2019 at 4:02 pm

Yes, sorry, my mistake, out of date information – KSA used to get natural gas from the South Pars field in Qatar prior to the LNG boom, but is seemingly now self sufficient for electricity generation. I was getting my pipelines mixed up.

Ignacio , May 30, 2019 at 4:34 am

I wonder whether the aggressive stance against Iran has more to do with blocking the Silk Road Initiative rather than just Iran herself and Iran's oil. Probably Xi Jinping feels this and will support Iran, in agreement with Prashad's statement in this sense. I also believe that some EU leaders share this view. Given the importance of Iran this migth result in an acceleration of the development of swift independent payment systems. We will see.

NotTimothyGeithner , May 30, 2019 at 8:40 am

Xi knows the Silk Road importance, and Obama's forgotten Pivot to Asia wasn't a feel good initiative.

I think US foreign policy types are hold deeply racist convictions. Iran is still the target because Iran dumped our man In Tehran. How dare those little people reject a US approved choice? Combined with an expat crowd of SAVAK every bit as deluded as the Cubans who came after the fall of Batista who have it on "good authority" they are about to be returned to power I mean democracy is about to flourish, the usual thugs in Washington have what they need to rant and rave.

As a counter narrative, the problem is Iran is another country I wouldn't normally worry about. I don't have a monthly premium I send to Iran or went to Iran's for school when I was a kid. Naturally only the SAVAK narrative gets pushed. Like anything, my guess is this is a bit of a last hurrah. 1979 was so long ago.

PlutoniumKun , May 30, 2019 at 8:43 am

I think part of the justification for a hardline on Iran is indeed to block the Silk Road initiative, but its a clumsy and stupid one if that's the case. You could argue that a more open Iran, trading freely with Europe and the US on its own terms would be much more cautious about being used as a transit hub for China. But Iran really has very little choice now but to make itself indispensable to China.

From what I understand from the business media, it seems the US really is taking a hard line on the EU's attempt to bypass the Swift system and most European companies are reluctantly falling in line with the sanctions. The EU may be given no choice but to accept the sanctions or overtly challenge them at every level – the latter being unlikely as it would need a unanimity and toughness the EU rarely shows, especially when it comes to the US.

MyLessThanPrimeBeef , May 30, 2019 at 4:28 pm

Xi feels this and will support Iran

The whole New Silk Road involves a lot of nations Xi will have to support, if not all the time, many times in the future.

That will keep Beijing busy could be opportunities to project power, I guess.

Brooklin Bridge , May 30, 2019 at 8:35 am

Interesting how this fits in or contrasts with the recent (and remarkably well written) article on What does it Mean to Live in a Multi Polar World? We May Be About to Find Out. It's clear from China's behavior as described in this present article that the United States still has considerable and, given how much it's been abused, remarkable clout. One can justifiably be boggled that the United States' indiscriminate weaponization of economic sanctions hasn't already exerted a devastating price internationally for US credibility that Trump – setting the world ablaze merely to distract his base and keep the virtually insane thugs in his administration happy – could care less about.

Regardless that Trump is merrily squandering (more blatantly but hardly having a monopoly over recent US Presidents) any residual US credibility in unilateral power being a beneficial force, the suggestion that "Even the historic tendency to focus on state power should be questioned in this moment," from the Multi Polar article, is well couched as a question rather than an assertion.

It seems inconceivable that Trump is aware of it, but his self serving conflagrational antics if they don't set off a major military conflict that could easily spread out of control, may be beneficial in the long run, but we're not there yet.

Mention of Russia and it's reaction is unfortunately missing from the article (or I missed it).

Ignacio , May 30, 2019 at 9:02 am

Yes, Trump looks not aware of much which doesn't fall within his narrow set of interests.Regarding Russia, what I've heard is that it has an ambivalent position. In one side Russia fears the US but in the other side migth somehow fear the increasing power of China. Regarding oil they won't protest high prices if this is a consequence of US politics, but Russia economically depends on Europe so they should be interested on diversification. And Russia's leadership hate climate change initiatives of course. Just to make things clearer hahahahahahah

Brooklin Bridge , May 30, 2019 at 9:48 am

Actually, the points you raise are exactly what would have been interesting to at least touch on in this article.

Re Russia, I suppose this article is more about oil consuming nations than oil producing ones, but since US hegemony and the apparent lack of push back is so intrinsic to the discussion, it would have been helpful to include some mention of Russia.

Also, as I look at it, my point that the US as a nation state still has clout can be turned on it's head and align more with the question mark raised in the Muilti Polar article if one argues that the US instigated conflict with Iran stems more from perceived interests of the oil and fossil fuel industries and that Washington or more specifically puppet Trump, fickle as he is, is simply going along to get along and trying at the same time to use it for his own ends as much as possible.

Ptb , May 30, 2019 at 9:15 am

I've been reading up on the natgas angle (Iran uses its big natgas supply mostly domestically, but this is related)

Pakistan seems willing to block the Iran connection for now – the unfinished Peace pipeline (natgas) is an indicator.

Also in natgas, Asian spot prices collapsed in the past year to the $4 range due to both LNG and pipeline supply racing ahead of demand (import terminals, power plants), and also Japan in the process of reactivating its nuke electric. Asian NG was around $10 when the gold rush started, post Fukushima. This is also part of the story.

At the same time, much seaborne LNG import capacity is being built in SE asia (Japan a big player in development apparently), due in mid 2020s. Together with Chinese and other NG plants being built to displace oil, this is supposed to drive prices to recover and probably overshoot in 4 years or so.

For now, the economic pressure on gas importers is unusually low, and pressure on gas exporters is higher. The US is still basically neutral in net import/export, which is the best way to be. It is not good for Iran, since their natgas export will not be developed until this market phase passes. It does make it harder for US energy exports to work as leverage over importers in general (China, India, Pak.).

Ignacio , May 30, 2019 at 12:30 pm

But the US wants to export " freedom gas "

Ptb , May 30, 2019 at 1:52 pm

Correction- NG plants to displace coal, not oil

RBHoughton , May 30, 2019 at 9:28 pm

I think this author is too influenced by the power of money and neglects the power of nationalism and justice. Hardship brings people together in a delightful way, a shared burden and a real sense of "we are all in this together" – the sense that Cameron tried and failed to activate in UK because society had been destroyed by Thatcher. The Iranian people are strengthened by sanctions. I expect Chinese energy purchases will increase when the railway connection is perfected and shipments are no longer exposed to maritime attack by pirates or governments.

I was glad to see this author characterise the sanctions as a blockade. We need to be straightforward in our terminology and Ron Paul was right to give them their proper name – blockade is an act of war, placing warships off another country's commercial ports to prevent trade in and out. Lat's be frank about that.

Why is the Baluchi Liberation Army focused on attacking China? How does that enhance the prospects of independence for Baluchistan? There has been nothing on this in the western press to my knowledge. It sounds like cover for a gang of crooks. Can anyone help?

[Jun 03, 2019] Don t Fall for Pompeo s Empty Rhetoric by DANIEL LARISON

Neocon hawks are destroying US economics very effectively by supersizing military expenses and the costs of foreign wars.
Essentially Trump administration is acting in Israeli and Saudi interests in this case
Notable quotes:
"... Like many other phony administration offers to negotiate, Pompeo's proposal doesn't really include anything new or different. The administration is still insisting on the preposterous demands that the Secretary of State delivered last year. That is what Pompeo's "normal nation" reference means. In other words, the administration still expects Iranian capitulation, and they are willing to meet with Iranian officials to accept their surrender. ..."
"... Of course, this would not be a "conversation," which implies give-and-take between equals who speak to each other with respect. This would amount to something much more like a demarche where the U.S. tells Iran what it must do and then expects Iran's representatives to nod in agreement. ..."
"... Pompeo is an Iran hawk, but he is also a yes-man who seeks to curry favor with the president at all times. If he thinks that the president wants him to make diplomatic-sounding noises, he will make those noises, but it doesn't mean very much in terms of the administration's goals and means. ..."
"... Iran hawks are used to feigning interest in diplomacy while doing everything they can to undermine and poison it. As always, judge the administration by what it does and not what it happens to be saying at the moment. As long as the U.S. keeps its illegitimate sanctions in place and continues to make unrealistic and excessive demands, offers to talk are meaningless because the administration has already rendered negotiations useless. ..."
"... Pompeo is an unskilled purveyor of "smoke & mirrors" diplomacy: he thinks the world is unaware that preconditions with Iran have been in place since May 2018 when Trump unilaterally tore up the JCPOA followed by a slew of unprecedented sanctions against the Iranian people. ..."
"... Of course this statement is not for Iran, it is for the U.S. public to make the case for 'we tried' when in actuality, 'we lied'. ..."
Jun 03, 2019 | www.theamericanconservative.com

Pompeo made a statement about talks with Iran that is much less meaningful than it seems:

The United States is prepared to engage with Iran without pre-conditions about its nuclear program but needs to see the country behaving like "a normal nation", U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Sunday.

Iran dismissed the offer as "word-play".

Like many other phony administration offers to negotiate, Pompeo's proposal doesn't really include anything new or different. The administration is still insisting on the preposterous demands that the Secretary of State delivered last year. That is what Pompeo's "normal nation" reference means. In other words, the administration still expects Iranian capitulation, and they are willing to meet with Iranian officials to accept their surrender. The report continues:

"We are certainly prepared to have that conversation when the Iranians can prove that they want to behave like a normal nation," he told a joint news conference with his Swiss counterpart Ignazio Cassis.

Of course, this would not be a "conversation," which implies give-and-take between equals who speak to each other with respect. This would amount to something much more like a demarche where the U.S. tells Iran what it must do and then expects Iran's representatives to nod in agreement.

The Iranian government's dismissive response is to be expected. For one thing, the distrust between Washington and Tehran is immense, so Iran's government is bound to view any offer with suspicion. The Iranian government has already explained what the U.S. has to do if they want to talk about anything, and the administration has no intention of doing any of those things. As far as Iran is concerned, their nuclear program isn't up for discussion, so what would be the point of meeting with U.S. officials when the administration remains committed to its outrageous policy of economic warfare and collective punishment?

Pompeo is an Iran hawk, but he is also a yes-man who seeks to curry favor with the president at all times. If he thinks that the president wants him to make diplomatic-sounding noises, he will make those noises, but it doesn't mean very much in terms of the administration's goals and means.

Iran hawks are used to feigning interest in diplomacy while doing everything they can to undermine and poison it. As always, judge the administration by what it does and not what it happens to be saying at the moment. As long as the U.S. keeps its illegitimate sanctions in place and continues to make unrealistic and excessive demands, offers to talk are meaningless because the administration has already rendered negotiations useless.

There is an understandable temptation to seize on comments from administration officials as proof that they are giving up on a destructive and fruitless policy, but until the administration translates its rhetorical gestures into actions we should assume that the policy remains unchanged.


Procivic, says: June 3, 2019 at 2:10 am

Pompeo is an unskilled purveyor of "smoke & mirrors" diplomacy: he thinks the world is unaware that preconditions with Iran have been in place since May 2018 when Trump unilaterally tore up the JCPOA followed by a slew of unprecedented sanctions against the Iranian people.

The exodus of qualified State Department careerists can't be plugged by promoting the likes of Brian Hook.

Christian J Chuba , says: June 3, 2019 at 8:07 am

Of course this statement is not for Iran, it is for the U.S. public to make the case for 'we tried' when in actuality, 'we lied'.

[May 31, 2019] China: the UN Security Council has not imposed any restrictions on the export of petroleum from Iran. Certain countries may impose unilateral sanctions against certain places on the basis of their own considerations. Those sanctions are outside the scope of the UN Security Council sanctions implemented by the HKSAR

May 31, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

William Gruff , May 31, 2019 7:18:06 AM | 62

For those who think China is going to help the American Empire take down Iran and thus wreck their Belt and Road Initiative , please think again: HK ignores US sanctions on Iran as tanker heads east

Western corporate mass media is cherry-picking what China has said: "Restrictions imposed by the UN Security Council on Iran have been fully implemented in the HKSAR under the United Nations Sanctions [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – Iran] Regulation [Chapter 537BV of the Laws of Hong Kong]."

"Woohoo! China's on our side! They are backing US sanctions!" -gullible American mass media consumer

Fake western "journalists" leave out the very next three sentences: "However, the UN Security Council has not imposed any restrictions on the export of petroleum from Iran. Certain countries may impose unilateral sanctions against certain places on the basis of their own considerations. Those sanctions are outside the scope of the UN Security Council sanctions implemented by the HKSAR."

In other words, "Go f#$k yourselves, you exceptional fools!" , though of course the Chinese are too polite to say that outright.

[May 31, 2019] Venezuela Oil Exports Slump to a 28-Year Low

Notable quotes:
"... The shipments to Cuba and Russia and possibly a few others just aren't enough. Remember that Venezuela's population in 1989 was 19.3 million while today it is 32.7 million. And back then that nation didn't have to cope with smothering economic sanctions of every kind along with the physical attacks and sabotage of infrastructure. ..."
"... I believe Russia buys oil from Venezuela. US refiners then buy oil from Russia to replace the Venezuelan oil. ..."
May 31, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

Zachary Smith , May 30, 2019 5:34:17 PM | 24

@ Peter AU 1 | May 30, 2019 3:58:45 PM #15

Venezuela oil exports seem to be imploding. Headline:

Venezuela Oil Exports Slump to a 28-Year Low
By Lucia Kassai January 2, 2019

More recent:

Shipping data shows that imports of fuel and diluents necessary to make Venezuela's extra heavy crude refinable have dropped to 86,000 b/d in the first part of May from 225,000 b/d for April. Fuel rationing is being overseen by the military as shortages begin to bite deeper. As local crude oil production continues to fall, and refineries operate much below capacity, the lines at gas stations outside of the capital are now miles long.

The shipments to Cuba and Russia and possibly a few others just aren't enough. Remember that Venezuela's population in 1989 was 19.3 million while today it is 32.7 million. And back then that nation didn't have to cope with smothering economic sanctions of every kind along with the physical attacks and sabotage of infrastructure.

Peter AU 1 , May 30, 2019 3:58:45 PM | 14

@Zachary Smith

I believe Russia buys oil from Venezuela. US refiners then buy oil from Russia to replace the Venezuelan oil.

Colin , May 30, 2019 6:40:47 PM | 27

Regarding where the US is getting crude from, some may still be coming from Venezuela directly

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Imports-Of-Venezuelan-Oil-Still-Trickling-In.html

Colin , May 30, 2019 6:47:17 PM | 29

... and a worthwhile analysis of the causes of the Venezuelan economic collapse (including a lot of analysis of their oil export industry) from Francisco Rodriguez who Mark Weisbrot (from the 40k deaths report with Jeffrey Sachs) says knows more about the Venezuelan economy than anyone in the world (although he is a critic of Chavez and Maduro).

https://venezuelablog.org/crude-realities-understanding-venezuelas-economic-collapse/

Peter AU 1 , May 30, 2019 11:22:31 PM | 47

Zachary Smith

A number of ships that were to take refined fuel and food to Venezuela were sabotaged while in port.

Some different takes on it.

[May 24, 2019] The Geography of War No Iraq No iIran! by Brett Redmayne

Notable quotes:
"... No other country in the Middle East is as important in countering America's rush to provide Israel with another war than Iraq. Fortunately for Iran, the winds of change in Iraq and the many other local countries under similar threat, thus, make up an unbroken chain of border to border support. This support is only in part due to sympathy for Iran and its plight against the latest bluster by the Zio-American bully. ..."
"... For the Russo/Sino pact nations, or those leaning in their direction, the definition of national foreign interest is no longer military, it is economic. Those with resources and therefore bright futures within the expanding philosophy and economic offerings of the Russo/Sino pact have little use any longer for the "Sorrows of Empire." These nation's leaders, if nothing more than to line their own pockets, have had a very natural epiphany: War is not, for them, profitable. ..."
"... Lebanon and Syria also take away the chance of a ground-based attack, leaving the US Marines and Army to stare longingly across the Persian Gulf open waters from Saudi Arabia or one of its too few and militarily insignificant allies in the southern Gulf region. ..."
"... As shown in a previous article, "The Return of the Madness of M.A.D," Iran like Russia and China, after forty years of US/Israeli threats, has developed new weapons and military capabilities, that combined with tactics will make any direct aggression towards it by American forces a fair fight. ..."
"... When Trump's limited political intelligence wakes up to the facts that his Zio masters want a war with Iran more than they want him as president, and that these forces can easily replace him with a Biden, Harris, Bernie or Warren political prostitute instead, even America's marmalade Messiah, will lose the flavor of his master's blood lust for war. ..."
"... I do particularly agree that elimination of Sadam was the greatest mistake US committed in Middle East. Devastating mistake for US policy. In the final evaluation it did create the most powerful Shi_ite crescent that now rules the Levant. Organizing failing uprising in Turkey against Erdogan was probably mistake of the same magnitude. Everything is lost for US now in the ME. ..."
"... The article evaluating the situation in ME is outstanding and perfect. Every move of US is a vanity. There is no more any opportunity to achieve any benefit for US. Who is responsible for all those screw ups ? US or Israel? ..."
"... However, the other side of the military coin is economic -- specifically sanctions on Iran (& China). Here ( I suspect) the US has prospects. Iran has said it has a "PhD" in sanctions busting. I hope that optimism is not misplaced. That US sanctions amount to a declaration of war on Iran is widely agreed. Sadly, it seems the EU in its usual spineless way will offer Iran more or less empty promises. ..."
"... I don't know if Russia and China have been showing restraint or still don't feel up to taking Uncle on very publicly or even covertly. The author assumes they might be willing to step up now for Iran, but the action in places like Syria suggests they might not. ..."
"... "War is a Racket" by Gen Smedley Butler (USMC – recipient of two Medals of Honor – no rear echelon pogue) is a must read. As true today as it was back when he wrote it. ..."
"... "The Axis of Sanity" – I like it, I like it! Probably quite closely related to the "reality-based community". ..."
"... "Karim al-Mohammadawi told the Arabic-language al-Ma'aloumeh news website that the US wants to turn Ain al-Assad airbase which is a regional base for operations and command into a central airbase for its fighter jets. ..."
"... He added that a large number of forces and military equipment have been sent to Ain al-Assad without any permission from the Iraqi government, noting that the number of American forces in Iraq has surpassed 50,000. ..."
"... Sea assault? Amphibious troop deployment? Are you serious? This is not WWII Normandy, Dorothy. That would be an unmitigated massacre. Weapons have improved a bit in the last 70 years if you have not noticed. ..."
"... first is a conspiracy of Israeli owned, Wall Street financed, war profiteering privatizing-pirate corporations These corporations enter, invade or control the war defeated place and privatize all of its infrastructure construction contracts from the defeated place or state (reason for massive destruction by bombing) and garner control over all the citizen services: retail oil and gas distribution, food supplies, electric power, communications, garbage and waste collection and disposal, street cleaning, water provisioning. traffic control systems, security, and so on.. Most of these corporations are privately owned public stock companies, controlled by the same wealthy Oligarchs that control "who gets elected and what the elected must do while in sitting in one of the seats of power at the 527 person USA. ..."
"... This article by Mr. Titley is the most hopeful article I've yet read demonstrating the coming death of US hegemony, with most of the rest of the civilized world apparently having turned against the world's worst Outlaw Nation. ..."
"... Netanyahu and the Ziocons better think twice about their longed for dream of the destruction of Iran. The Jews always push things too far. Karma can be a bitch. ..."
May 23, 2019 | www.unz.com

No other country in the Middle East is as important in countering America's rush to provide Israel with another war than Iraq. Fortunately for Iran, the winds of change in Iraq and the many other local countries under similar threat, thus, make up an unbroken chain of border to border support. This support is only in part due to sympathy for Iran and its plight against the latest bluster by the Zio-American bully.

In the politics of the Middle East, however, money is at the heart of all matters. As such, this ring of defensive nations is collectively and quickly shifting towards the new Russo/Sino sphere of economic influence. These countries now form a geo-political defensive perimeter that, with Iraq entering the fold, make a US ground war virtually impossible and an air war very restricted in opportunity.

If Iraq holds, there will be no war in Iran.

In the last two months, Iraq parliamentarians have been exceptionally vocal in their calls for all foreign military forces- particularly US forces- to leave immediately. Politicians from both blocs of Iraq's divided parliament called for a vote to expel US troops and promised to schedule an extraordinary session to debate the matter ."Parliament must clearly and urgently express its view about the ongoing American violations of Iraqi sovereignty," said Salam al-Shimiri, a lawmaker loyal to the populist cleric Moqtada al-Sadr .

Iraq's ambassador to Moscow, Haidar Mansour Hadi, went further saying that Iraq "does not want a new devastating war in the region." He t old a press conference in Moscow this past week, "Iraq is a sovereign nation. We will not let [the US] use our territory," he said. Other comments by Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi agreed. Other MPs called for a timetable for complete US troop withdrawal.

Then a motion was introduced demanding war reparations from the US and Israel for using internationally banned weapons while destroying Iraq for seventeen years and somehow failing to find those "weapons of mass destruction."

As Iraq/Iran economic ties continue to strengthen, with Iraq recently signing on for billions of cubic meters of Iranian natural gas, the shift towards Russian influence- an influence that prefers peace- was certified as Iraq sent a delegation to Moscow to negotiate the purchase of the Russian S-400 anti-aircraft system.

To this massive show of pending democracy and rapidly rising Iraqi nationalism, US Army spokesman, Colonel Ryan Dillon, provided the kind of delusion only the Zio-American military is known for, saying,

"Our continued presence in Iraq will be conditions-based, proportional to need, in coordination with and by the approval of the Iraqi government."

Good luck with that.

US influence in Iraq came to a possible conclusion this past Saturday, May 18, 2019, when it was reported that the Iraqi parliament would vote on a bill compelling the invaders to leave . Speaking about the vote on the draft bill, Karim Alivi, a member of the Iraqi parliament's national security and defense committee, said on Thursday that the country's two biggest parliamentary factions -- the Sairoon bloc, led by Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, and the Fatah alliance, headed by secretary general of the Badr Organization, Hadi al-Ameri -- supported the bill. Strangely, Saturday's result has not made it to the media as yet, and American meddling would be a safe guess as to the delay, but the fact that this bill would certainly have passed strongly shows that Iraq well understands the weakness of the American bully: Iraq's own US militarily imposed democracy.

Iraq shares a common border with Iran that the US must have for any ground war. Both countries also share a similar religious demographic where Shia is predominant and the plurality of cultures substantially similar and previously living in harmony. Both also share a very deep seeded and deserved hatred of Zio- America. Muqtada al-Sadr, who, after coming out first in the 2018 Iraqi elections, is similar to Hizbullah's Hassan Nasrallah in his religious and military influence within the well trained and various Shia militias. He is firmly aligned with Iran as is Fattah Alliance. Both detest Zio- America.

A ground invasion needs a common and safe border. Without Iraq, this strategic problem for US forces becomes complete. The other countries also with borders with Iran are Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Turkey, Afghanistan and Pakistan. All have several good reasons that they will not, or cannot, be used for ground forces.

With former Armenian President Robert Kocharian under arrest in the aftermath of the massive anti-government 2018 protests, Bolton can check that one off the list first. Azerbaijan is mere months behind the example next door in Armenia, with protests increasing and indicating a change towards eastern winds. Regardless, Azerbaijan, like Turkmenistan, is an oil producing nation and as such is firmly aligned economically with Russia. Political allegiance seems obvious since US influence is limited in all three countries to blindly ignoring the massive additional corruption and human rights violations by Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow .

However, Russian economic influence pays in cash. Oil under Russian control is the lifeblood of both of these countries. Recent developments and new international contracts with Russia clearly show whom these leaders are actually listening to.

Turkey would appear to be firmly shifting into Russian influence. A NATO member in name only. Ever since he shot down his first- and last – Russian fighter jet, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has thumbed his nose at the Americans. Recently he refused to succumb to pressure and will receive Iranian oil and, in July, the Russian S-400 anti-aircraft/missile system. This is important since there is zero chance Putin will relinquish command and control or see them missiles used against Russian armaments. Now, Erdogan is considering replacing his purchase of thirty US F-35s with the far superior Russian SU- 57 and a few S-500s for good measure.

Economically, America did all it could to stop the Turk Stream gas pipeline installed by Russia's Gazprom, that runs through Turkey to eastern Europe and will provide $billions to Erdogan and Turkey . It will commence operation this year. Erdogan continues to purchase Iranian oil and to call for Arab nations to come together against US invasion in Iran. This week, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar renewed Turkey's resolve, saying his country is preparing for potential American sanctions as a deadline reportedly set by the US for Ankara to cancel the S-400 arms deal with Russia or face penalties draws near.

So, Turkey is out for both a ground war and an air war since the effectiveness of all those S-400's might be put to good use if America was to launch from naval positions in the Mediterranean. Attacking from the Black Sea is out since it is ringed by countries under Russo/Sino influence and any attack on Iran will have to illegally cross national airspace aligned with countries preferring the Russo/Sino alliance that favours peace. An unprovoked attack would leave the US fleet surrounded with the only safe harbours in Romania and Ukraine. Ships move much slower than missiles.

Afghanistan is out, as the Taliban are winning. Considering recent peace talks from which they walked out and next slaughtered a police station near the western border with Iran, they have already won. Add the difficult terrain near the Iranian border and a ground invasion is very unlikely

Although new Pakistani President Amir Khan has all the power and authority of a primary school crossing guard, the real power within the Pakistani military, the ISI, is more than tired of American influence . ISI has propagated the Taliban for years and often gave refuge to Afghan anti-US forces allowing them to use their common border for cover. Although in the past ISI has been utterly mercenary in its very duplicitous- at least- foreign allegiances, after a decade of US drone strikes on innocent Pakistanis, the chance of ground-based forces being allowed is very doubtful. Like Afghanistan terrain also increases this unlikelihood.

Considerations as to terrain and location for a ground war and the resulting failure of not doing so was shown to Israel previously when, in 2006 Hizbullah virtually obliterated its ground attack, heavy armour and battle tanks in the hills of southern Lebanon. In further cautionary detail, this failure cost PM Ehud Olmert his job.

For the Russo/Sino pact nations, or those leaning in their direction, the definition of national foreign interest is no longer military, it is economic. Those with resources and therefore bright futures within the expanding philosophy and economic offerings of the Russo/Sino pact have little use any longer for the "Sorrows of Empire." These nation's leaders, if nothing more than to line their own pockets, have had a very natural epiphany: War is not, for them, profitable.

For Iran, the geographic, economic and therefore geo-political ring of defensive nations is made complete by Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. Syria, like Iraq, has every reason to despise the Americans and similar reasons to embrace Iran, Russia, China and border neighbour Lebanon. Syria now has its own Russian S-300 system which is already bringing down Israeli missiles. It is surprising that Lebanon has not requested a few S-300s of their own. No one knows what Hizbullah has up its sleeve, but it has been enough to keep the Israelis at bay. Combined with a currently more prepared Lebanese army, Lebanon under the direction of Nasrallah is a formidable nation for its size. Ask Israel.

Lebanon and Syria also take away the chance of a ground-based attack, leaving the US Marines and Army to stare longingly across the Persian Gulf open waters from Saudi Arabia or one of its too few and militarily insignificant allies in the southern Gulf region.

Friendly airspace will also be vastly limited, so also gone will be the tactical element of surprise of any incoming attack. The reality of this defensive ring of nations means that US military options will be severely limited. The lack of a ground invasion threat and the element of surprise will allow Iranian defences to prioritize and therefore be dramatically more effective. As shown in a previous article, "The Return of the Madness of M.A.D," Iran like Russia and China, after forty years of US/Israeli threats, has developed new weapons and military capabilities, that combined with tactics will make any direct aggression towards it by American forces a fair fight.

If the US launches a war it will go it alone except for the few remaining US lapdogs like the UK, France, Germany and Australia, but with anti-US emotions running as wild across the EU as in the southern Caspian nations, the support of these Zionist influenced EU leaders is not necessarily guaranteed.

Regardless, a lengthy public ramp-up to stage military assets for an attack by the US will be seen by the vast majority of the world- and Iran- as an unprovoked act of war. Certainly at absolute minimum Iran will close the Straits of Hormuz, throwing the price of oil skyrocketing and world economies into very shaky waters. World capitalist leaders will not be happy. Without a friendly landing point for ground troops, the US will either have to abandon this strategy in favour of an air war or see piles of body bags of US servicemen sacrificed to Israeli inspired hegemony come home by the thousands just months before the '20 primary season. If this is not military and economic suicide, it is certainly political.

Air war will likely see a similar disaster. With avenues of attack severely restricted, obvious targets such as Iran's non-military nuclear program and major infrastructure will be thus more easily defended and the likelihood of the deaths of US airmen similarly increased.

In terms of Naval power, Bolton would have only the Mediterranean as a launch pad, since using the Black Sea to initiate war will see the US fleet virtually surrounded by nations aligned with the Russo/Sino pact. Naval forces, it should be recalled, are, due to modern anti-ship technologies and weapons, now the sitting ducks of blusterous diplomacy. A hot naval war in the Persian Gulf, like a ground war, will leave a US death toll far worse than the American public has witnessed in their lifetimes and the US navy in tatters.

Trump is already reportedly seething that his machismo has been tarnished by Bolton and Pompeo's false assurances of an easy overthrow of Maduro in Venezuela. With too many top generals getting jumpy about him initiating a hot war with Iraq, Bolton's stock in trade-war is waning. Trump basks in being the American bully personified, but he and his ego will not stand for being exposed as weak. Remaining as president is necessary to stoke his shallow character. When Trump's limited political intelligence wakes up to the facts that his Zio masters want a war with Iran more than they want him as president, and that these forces can easily replace him with a Biden, Harris, Bernie or Warren political prostitute instead, even America's marmalade Messiah, will lose the flavor of his master's blood lust for war.

In two excellent articles in Asia times by Pepe Escobar, he details the plethora of projects, agreements, and cooperation that are taking place from Asia to the Mid-East to the Baltics . Lead by Russia and China this very quickly developing Russo/Sino pact of economic opportunity and its intentions of "soft power" collectively spell doom for Zio-America's only remaining tactics of influence: military intervention. States, Escobar:

"We should know by now that the heart of the 21 st Century Great Game is the myriad layers of the battle between the United States and the partnership of Russia and China. The long game indicates Russia and China will break down language and cultural barriers to lead Eurasian integration against American economic hegemony backed by military might."

The remaining civilized world, that which understands the expanding world threat of Zio-America, can rest easy. Under the direction of this new Russo/Sino influence, without Iraq, the US will not launch a war on Iran.

This growing Axis of Sanity surrounds Iran geographically and empathetically, but more importantly, economically. This economy, as clearly stated by both Putin and Xi, does not benefit from any further wars of American aggression. In this new allegiance to future riches, it is Russian and China that will call the shots and a shooting war involving their new client nations will not be sanctioned from the top.

However, to Putin, Xi and this Axis of Sanity: If American wishes to continue to bankrupt itself by ineffective military adventures of Israel's making, rather than fix its own nation that is in societal decline and desiccated after decades of increasing Zionist control, well

That just good for business!

About the Author: Brett Redmayne-Titley has published over 170 in-depth articles over the past eight years for news agencies worldwide. Many have been translated and republished. On-scene reporting from important current events has been an emphasis that has led to his many multi-part exposes on such topics as the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations, NATO summit, Keystone XL Pipeline, Porter Ranch Methane blow-out, Hizbullah in Lebanon, Erdogan's Turkey and many more. He can be reached at: live-on-scene ((at)) gmx.com. Prior articles can be viewed at his archive: www.watchingromeburn.uk


RealAmerican , says: May 23, 2019 at 11:40 pm GMT

When Trump's limited political intelligence wakes up to the facts that his Zio masters want a war with Iran more than they want him as president, and that these forces can easily replace him with a Biden, Harris, Bernie or Warren political prostitute instead, even America's marmalade Messiah, will lose the flavor of his master's blood lust for war.

I believe you are far too generous in your estimation of his ability to distinguish between flavors of any type. Otherwise, your analysis is insightful and thorough.

Jim Christian , says: May 24, 2019 at 3:45 am GMT
The U.S. is in the same position today that we were aboard Nimitz back in 1980. Too far from Tehran to start a war or even to find our people. We are perhaps in even a far worse position in that today, Iran holds no hostages. There's nothing so 'noble' as 44 hostages to inspire war today. This here is merely at the behest of Israel and the deep state profit centers for mere fun and games and cash and prizes. Iran, overall, is nothing. Obama put Iran away for what, a billion-five? And Jared, Bolton and Pompeo dredged it all back up again? Care to guess the first-night expense of a shock and awe on Tehran? It's unthinkable.

I used to like Israel. The Haifa-Tel Av-iv-Jerusalem-Galili loop was pretty cool. The PLO hadn't quite started their game, we could move freely about the country. It's where the whole thing started. And, unlike Italy and Spain, they treated us Americans ok. They were somewhat war torn. But now? They're a destructive monolith, they're good at hiding it and further, they make disastrous miscalculations. Eliminating Saddam was huge. Turns out, Saddam was the only sane one. The last vestiges of Saddam's nuclear program went up in the attacks on the Osirak reactor that Israel bombed in 1981. Why did they push for the elimination of Saddam afterwards? Why the lies? Miscalculation.

This here with Iran won't travel further than threats and horseshit. I hope. Lots of bleating and farting. Someone agrees. Oil dropped three or four bucks today.

Alfred , says: May 24, 2019 at 4:56 am GMT
"the resulting failure of not doing so was shown to Israel previously when, in 2016 Hezbollah virtually obliterated its ground attack, heavy amour and battle tanks in the hills of southern Lebanon."

2006 please!

Ilyana_Rozumova , says: May 24, 2019 at 5:22 am GMT
I do particularly agree that elimination of Sadam was the greatest mistake US committed in Middle East. Devastating mistake for US policy. In the final evaluation it did create the most powerful Shi_ite crescent that now rules the Levant. Organizing failing uprising in Turkey against Erdogan was probably mistake of the same magnitude. Everything is lost for US now in the ME.

Threatening Iran is now simply grotesque.

Concerning the article. The article evaluating the situation in ME is outstanding and perfect. Every move of US is a vanity. There is no more any opportunity to achieve any benefit for US. Who is responsible for all those screw ups ? US or Israel?

animalogic , says: May 24, 2019 at 7:10 am GMT
Great article, cheered me up enormously.

However, the other side of the military coin is economic -- specifically sanctions on Iran (& China). Here ( I suspect) the US has prospects. Iran has said it has a "PhD" in sanctions busting. I hope that optimism is not misplaced. That US sanctions amount to a declaration of war on Iran is widely agreed. Sadly, it seems the EU in its usual spineless way will offer Iran more or less empty promises.

Apex Predator , says: May 24, 2019 at 7:37 am GMT
Is the author unaware of the nation of Saudi Arabia and the fact that they are new BFFs with Israel. They have come out quite openly they'd like to see Iran attacked. That whole Sunni Wahabism vs. Shia thing is a heck of alot older than this current skirmish.

Being that SA has a border w/ the Persian Gulf and that Kuwait who is even CLOSER may be agreeable to be a staging area, why the hand wringing about this nation & that nation, etc. The US would be welcome to stage an air and sea assault using Saudi bases followed up by amphibious troop deployment if need be. But given the proximity they could probably strong arm Kuwait to act as a land bridge, in a pinch.

So will we expect the follow up article discussing this glaring omission, or am I missing some great development re: S.Arabia's disposition and temperament regarding all this.

peter mcloughlin , says: May 24, 2019 at 8:21 am GMT
The transformed relationship between Russia and Turkey illustrates perfectly the shifting sands of strategic alliances as we cross the desert towards destiny. https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/
The Alarmist , says: May 24, 2019 at 8:24 am GMT
I don't know if Russia and China have been showing restraint or still don't feel up to taking Uncle on very publicly or even covertly. The author assumes they might be willing to step up now for Iran, but the action in places like Syria suggests they might not.

As for the costs of taking on Iran, while one cannot underestimate the cocksuredness of Uncle to take on Iran with a 2003 "Iraq will be a cakewalk" attitude, the resulting air war will likely not be as costly to Uncle as the author believes, but the thought of flag-draped coffins in the thousands will certainly deter a land invasion. If there is any action at all, it will be air interdiction and missile attack.

It is curious that Uncle has not already resorted to his favorite tactic of declaring a No-Fly zone already but instead merely hinted that airliner safety cannot be guaranteed; this is likely just another form of sanction since Iran receives money for each airliner that transits its airspace, and a couple of Uncle's putative allies supply Iran with ATC equipment and services.

Uncle's Navy has already demonstrated a willingness to shoot down an airliner in Iranian airspace, so it is no idle threat, kind of like the mobster looking at a picture of your family and saying, "Nice family you have there; it would be a shame if anything happened to them."

joeshittheragman , says: May 24, 2019 at 9:47 am GMT
"War is a Racket" by Gen Smedley Butler (USMC – recipient of two Medals of Honor – no rear echelon pogue) is a must read. As true today as it was back when he wrote it.
Tom Welsh , says: May 24, 2019 at 11:18 am GMT
"The Axis of Sanity" – I like it, I like it! Probably quite closely related to the "reality-based community".
Amerimutt Golems , says: May 24, 2019 at 11:29 am GMT

If the US launches a war it will go it alone except for the few remaining US lapdogs like the UK, France, Germany and Australia, but with anti-US emotions running as wild across the EU as in the southern Caspian nations, the support of these Zionist influenced EU leaders is not necessarily guaranteed.

Stasi " Merkel muss weg " (Merkel must go) is too weak to even think about taking Germanstan into such a foolish adventure.

Maybe the Kosher Kingdom of simpletons, especially under American-born Turkish "Englishman" (((Boris Kemal Bey))), another psycho like (((Baron Levy's))) Scottish warmonger Blair.

Walter , says: May 24, 2019 at 11:46 am GMT
built-up in Iraq geewhiz!

Iraqi MP: US after Turning Ain Al-Assad into Central Airbase in Iraq

FARSNEWS

"Karim al-Mohammadawi told the Arabic-language al-Ma'aloumeh news website that the US wants to turn Ain al-Assad airbase which is a regional base for operations and command into a central airbase for its fighter jets.

He added that a large number of forces and military equipment have been sent to Ain al-Assad without any permission from the Iraqi government, noting that the number of American forces in Iraq has surpassed 50,000.

Al-Mohammadawi said that Washington does not care about Iraq's opposition to using the country's soil to target the neighboring states.

In a relevant development on Saturday, media reports said that Washington has plans to set up military bases and increasing its troops in Iraq, adding the US is currently engaged in expanding its Ain al-Assad military base in al-Anbar province."

sarz , says: May 24, 2019 at 11:51 am GMT
The prime minister of Pakistan is IMRAN Khan, not AMIR Khan. Makes you wonder about all the other assertions.
The scalpel , says: Website May 24, 2019 at 12:03 pm GMT
@Apex Predator

The US would be welcome to stage an air and sea assault using Saudi bases followed up by amphibious troop deployment if need be. But given the proximity they could probably strong arm Kuwait to act as a land bridge, in a pinch.

Sea assault? Amphibious troop deployment? Are you serious? This is not WWII Normandy, Dorothy. That would be an unmitigated massacre. Weapons have improved a bit in the last 70 years if you have not noticed.

Also minor point, LOL, but Kuwait is a "landbridge" between Saudi Arabia and Iraq Unless you are proposing the US attacks Iraq (again!) which it would have to do to achieve a "landbridge" to Iran. Another good reason Iraq is acquiring the S-400.

More minor points: 1. South Iraq is ALL shiite. 2. Kuwait is SMALL i.e. a BIG target for thousands of missiles

sally , says: May 24, 2019 at 12:25 pm GMT
@Ilyana_Rozumova your question of responsibility is very intuitive.. two general answers.. both need deep analysis..

first is a conspiracy of Israeli owned, Wall Street financed, war profiteering privatizing-pirate corporations These corporations enter, invade or control the war defeated place and privatize all of its infrastructure construction contracts from the defeated place or state (reason for massive destruction by bombing) and garner control over all the citizen services: retail oil and gas distribution, food supplies, electric power, communications, garbage and waste collection and disposal, street cleaning, water provisioning. traffic control systems, security, and so on.. Most of these corporations are privately owned public stock companies, controlled by the same wealthy Oligarchs that control "who gets elected and what the elected must do while in sitting in one of the seats of power at the 527 person USA.

2nd is the impact of the laws that deny competition in a nation sworn to a method of economics (capitalism) that depends on competition for its success. Another group of massive in size mostly global corporations again owned from Jerusalem, NYC, City of London, etc. financed at wall street, use rule of law to impose on Americans and many of the people of the world, a blanket of economic and anti competitive laws and monopoly powers. These monopolist companies benefit from the copyright and patent laws, which create monopolies from hot thin air. These laws of monopolies coupled to the USA everything is a secret government have devastated competitive capitalism in America and rendered American Universities high school level teaching but not learning bureaucracies.

Monopolies and state secrets between insider contractors were suppose to deny most of the world from competing; but without competition ingenuity is lost. Monopoly lordships and state secrets were supposed to make it easy for the monopoly powered corporations to overpower and deny any and all would be competition; hence they would be the only ones getting rich.. But China's Huawei will be Linux based and Tin not Aluminium in design, far superior technology to anything these monopoly powered retards have yet developed especially in the high energy communications technologies (like 5G, Artificial Intelligence, and Robotics). In other words copyrights, patents and the US military were suppose to keep the world, and the great ingenuity that once existed in the person of every American, from competing, but the only people actually forced out of the technology competition were the ingenious, for they were denied by copyright and patents to compete. Now those in power at the USA will make Americans pay again as the corporations that run things try to figure out how to catch up to the Chinese and Russian led Eastern world. Modi's election in India is quite interesting as both China and Russia supported it, yet, Modi says he is going to switch to the USA for copyrighted and patented stuff?

on the issue of continued USA presence in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, ..

"Our continued presence in Iraq will be conditions-based, proportional to need, in coordination with and by the approval of the Iraqi government." <that's a joke, first off, I never desired to be in Iraq, and I do not desire USA military or American presence in Iraq, do You? <blatant disregard for the needs of America.. IMO. Bring the troops home. If the USA would only leave Iraq to the Iraqis and get to work making America competitive again they would once again enjoy a great place in the world. But one thing i can tell you big giant wall street funded corporations, and reliance on degree credentials instead of job performance, will never be the reason America is great.

follyofwar , says: May 24, 2019 at 12:28 pm GMT
This article by Mr. Titley is the most hopeful article I've yet read demonstrating the coming death of US hegemony, with most of the rest of the civilized world apparently having turned against the world's worst Outlaw Nation.

Trump has allowed madmen Bolton and Pompeo to get this country into an awful mess – all for the sake of Israel and the Zionists.

He needs to find a face-saving way to get out before Washington gets its long needed comeuppance. But how can Trump accomplish this as long as Bolton, in particular, continues to be the man who most has his ear? If Titley is correct, then Trump had better start listening to his military leaders instead.

Netanyahu and the Ziocons better think twice about their longed for dream of the destruction of Iran. The Jews always push things too far. Karma can be a bitch.

[May 22, 2019] War with Iran could send oil prices to $250 per barrel

This is unfounded speculation. No facts.
Notable quotes:
"... The Iranian goal is to break the resolve of the US, given American military retreats from the Middle East in the past – Lebanon (1984), Iraq (2011), and Syria (presently) – and to increase the cost of Iranian oil sanctions on the global economy through additional disruptions to supply. ..."
"... This is obviously a dangerous game that could lead to real war, not just proxy war. As a result, it is important to explore the potential impact of both on the world oil market, despite the latter being significantly more likely than the former. ..."
"... On the deterrence front, the US has moved numerous military assets to the Persian Gulf region since the Trump administration's "no waiver" oil sanctions came into effect. These include: hastening the arrival of a carrier strike group; deployment of a bomber task-force; additional Patriot missiles; and as reported by The New York Times, drawing up plans to send up to 120,000 US troops to the Middle East, if Iran attacks US forces or rushes to develop nuclear weapons. ..."
May 21, 2019 | www.rt.com

As tensions between Iran and the US continue to escalate, analysts have begun to consider the likelihood and consequences of an Iran war. There has been much talk of an Iran War in recent weeks, but the likelihood of a war, whether intentional or accidental, is relatively small for the simple reason that the leaders of Iran and the US don't want one. President Donald Trump, who has been remarkably faithful to his campaign promises, to the chagrin of many, doesn't want another Iraq-like war – with a quick victory followed by a long defeat. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran, doesn't want his revolution and country crushed by the massive military might of America.

This is not to say there aren't powerful individuals in the Trump administration – such as National Security Advisor John Bolton and possibly Secretary of State Mike Pompeo – and regional allies – Israel, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) – who want a war to bring about regime change in Iran, and who are willing to stir the pot in an attempt to make it happen.

Trump's personal preference for Iran may also be regime change, with a negotiated neutering of the Islamic Republic his next best outcome. But he probably would settle for long-term containment of Iran through his "maximum pressure" campaign, accepting that the Iranian regime would likely be able to sustain itself though skirting sanctions.

Iran has made huge geopolitical gains in the Middle East since the US inadvertently pushed Shiite-majority Iraq into the Iranian sphere of influence by imposing democracy on the country following the 2003 war. Tehran now directly or indirectly controls an arc of territory north of Saudi Arabia – Iraq, Syria and Lebanon – while supporting Houthi rebels to the south of the kingdom in Yemen.

Although US sanctions on Iran's oil and metal exports are unlikely to bring about regime change, they will make it significantly more difficult for the Islamic Republic to consolidate its territorial gains and sustain its regional proxy network, as the government will have to prioritize domestic spending to maintain social stability. Simply put, the sanctions make it more difficult for Iran to directly challenge its regional enemies, Israel, Saudi Arabia and UAE and score additional foreign policy victories.

Despite an aversion to war with the US, it appears Khamenei has given Qassem Suleimani, leader of Iran's powerful Quds Force and national hero, permission to encourage foreign militias aligned with Tehran to cause mischief for US and allied forces in the Middle East, and if possible, disrupt the flow of oil from the region through non-attributed actions.

The Iranian goal is to break the resolve of the US, given American military retreats from the Middle East in the past – Lebanon (1984), Iraq (2011), and Syria (presently) – and to increase the cost of Iranian oil sanctions on the global economy through additional disruptions to supply.

This is obviously a dangerous game that could lead to real war, not just proxy war. As a result, it is important to explore the potential impact of both on the world oil market, despite the latter being significantly more likely than the former.

US Perspective

Pompeo laid out the Trump administration's rationale and strategy for dealing with the Islamic Republic in "Confronting Iran," an article in the November-December 2018 issue of Foreign Affairs . He argued the deal the Obama administration and international community struck with Iran in 2015 – the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – was fundamentally flawed as it failed to end the country's nuclear weapons ambition. Instead, the deal simply postponed Iran's nuclear ambitions while the regime continued its ballistic missile program to allow it to deliver a nuclear payload.

At the same time, the deal gave "Tehran piles of money, which the supreme leader has used to sponsor all types of terrorism throughout the Middle East (with few consequences in response) and which have boosted the economic fortunes of a regime that remains bent on exporting its revolution abroad and imposing it at home."

The core of the Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign are economic sanctions designed to "choke off revenues" to Iran to force its government to negotiate a "new deal" covering its nuclear activities, ballistic missile program and "malign behaviour" across the Middle East, while providing sufficient military deterrence to keep Tehran from lashing out at US forces and allies in the region.

Trump withdrew the US from the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018, and has since ratcheted up economic sanctions on the Islamic Republic in August and November of last year, while going the full monty on Iranian crude and condensate exports at the beginning of May.

On the deterrence front, the US has moved numerous military assets to the Persian Gulf region since the Trump administration's "no waiver" oil sanctions came into effect. These include: hastening the arrival of a carrier strike group; deployment of a bomber task-force; additional Patriot missiles; and as reported by The New York Times, drawing up plans to send up to 120,000 US troops to the Middle East, if Iran attacks US forces or rushes to develop nuclear weapons.

It should be noted that a military buildup of this size would take months, and the 120,000 number is widely viewed as insufficient for a full-scale invasion of Iran. The Islamic Republic has been planning and building up asymmetric military capabilities to thwart a US attack since the 1990s, while the country is larger in size and population than Iraq. The US military plan reported by the New York Times did not call for a land invasion of Iran.

On May 14, Trump denied the New York Times report, but in characteristic fashion appeared to up the ante. "Now, would I do that? Absolutely," Trump said. "But we have not planned for that. Hopefully we're not going to have to plan for that. If we did that, we would send a hell of a lot more troops than that."

But in the Foreign Affairs article Pompeo wrote that Trump does not want the US to go to war with Iran: "President Trump does not want another long-term US military engagement in the Middle East -- or in any other region, for that matter. He has spoken openly about the dreadful consequences of the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the 2011 intervention in Libya."

Iranian Perspective

On May 14, Khamenei explicitly said that Iran does not want to go to war with the US, and suggested the same of America, as a war would be in neither country's interest.

"There won't be any war," he said. "Neither we nor they seek war. They know it will not be in their interest."

In terms of Iran's current situation, David Petraeus, ex-CIA director and America's former top general in the Middle East, possibly put it best.

"Certainly, if Iran were to precipitate that [a war], it would be a suicide gesture," Petraeus said on May 9. "It would be very, very foolhardy. And they know that."

The Islamic Republic has done an excellent job of marshaling relatively limited financial and military resources to expand its influence and control through the Middle East since 2003, but its defense budget of about US$16 billion – or a mere 3.7 percent of GDP – falls considerably short compared to regional rivals Israel, Saudi Arabia and UAE on an individual basis, let alone a collective one. The military capabilities of the US dwarf those of Iran on every conceivable measure, which should come as no surprise since America's most recent defense budget is a massive US$686 billion.

Also on rt.com

Khamenei also said his country has no desire to negotiate with the US, given the Trump administration's extreme demands and unilateral breaking of the nuclear pact, and suggested the current crisis will likely be a long one, a view supported by Hassan Rouhani, the democratically elected president of Iran.

"The Iranian nation has chosen the path of resistance," Khamenei said.

Rouhani was even more explicit. Speaking to activists from a wide range of political factions on May 12, he said Iran is facing "unprecedented" pressure from US sanctions and suggested economic conditions may become worse than during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War.

"The pressures by enemies is a war unprecedented in the history of our Islamic revolution," Rouhani said, according to the state news agency IRNA. "But I do not despair and have great hope for the future and believe that we can move past these difficult conditions provided that we are united ."

This article was originally published on Oilprice.com

See also

[May 20, 2019] May be tensions with Iran is the USA neocons strategy of containing China by depriving it economy of oil

China is Iran strategic ally. It will continue to buy Iranian oil.
May 20, 2019 | www.nakedcapitalism.com

charles 2 , May 20, 2019 at 6:43 am

Or maybe it is just one front: I.e. making globalisation difficult for the Chinese :
by pushing non Chinese Asians countries to de-integrate their supply chains with China and
by cutting its supply of oil though shortages induced by tensions in the Gulf.
The US knows that it can't be the sole superpower anymore any longer, so the strategy is to reverse globalisation so that no other global superpower (a Russian-Chinese with a dominating Persia in the Middle East) can emerge.
Far too early to say if the strategy will be successful or not.
As far as I am concerned, the silver linings would be that a long period of oil shortage could finally be the trigger to switch industrial infrastructure worldwide away from liquid and gaseous fossils, and that less globalised supply chain would be more robust to shocks, but if these silver linings were the ultimate goals, I could think of less adversarial ways to achieve that globally, with less money wasted on the military

jackson , May 20, 2019 at 8:41 am

The benefits of joint pricing mechanisms are also enormous. Currently, Iran has no choice because of the sanctions but to sell its oil – including from the shared fields – at massively reduced pricing that is comprised of its official selling price (OSP) minus the sanctions discount minus the incremental risk discount. This has resulted in Iran offering 'cost, insurance, and freight' cargoes for 'free on board' pricing, with the difference between the two covered by Iran. "Under this new agreement, Iranian oil from these shared fields will be sold based on Iraq's much higher three month moving average OSP pricing for cargoes, with no discounts at all, and the three month moving average for the effective spot market that Iraq has created and now controls," said the oil source.

https://acdn.adnxs.com/ib/static/usersync/v3/async_usersync.html

https://eus.rubiconproject.com/usync.html

https://c.deployads.com/sync?f=html&s=2343&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nakedcapitalism.com%2F2019%2F05%2Fon-the-cusp-of-war-why-iran-wont-fold.html <img src="http://b.scorecardresearch.com/p?c1=2&c2=16807273&cv=2.0&cj=1" />

Geo , May 20, 2019 at 3:02 am

Thanks for the in-depth info. Lots to digest and research.

the US has acted in such bad faith so often in the early stages of conflicts that it's sensible to wonder how much of this account is accurate. It is very frustrating to be dealing with an informational hall of mirrors.

It's depressing to say but I when I read anything from domestic official sources or the media I can't help but think it's mostly lies. Not under the illusion that foreign actors are all righteous and benevolent, but as you said, our nation's track record with the truth in these scenarios is pretty tainted at this point. Just as we found out with Saddam and Qaddafi, these leaders have little reason to poke the dragon, and a lot of reason to build up defenses.

https://acdn.adnxs.com/ib/static/usersync/v3/async_usersync.html

https://eus.rubiconproject.com/usync.html

https://c.deployads.com/sync?f=html&s=2343&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nakedcapitalism.com%2F2019%2F05%2Fon-the-cusp-of-war-why-iran-wont-fold.html <img src="http://b.scorecardresearch.com/p?c1=2&c2=16807273&cv=2.0&cj=1" />

PlutoniumKun , May 20, 2019 at 5:35 am

Interesting observations if true, and they certainly do make sense of a lot of the things that have been happening.

I see it hasn't dissuaded Trump though, this morning he is reported as doubling down on his threats to Iran. A big fear now is that Iran does not seem to be in the mood to give Trump the sort of symbolic 'win' he can use to climb down gracefully (and sack Bolton). The Saudi's can probably be scared into stepping back, but the Israeli's and the neocons want a hot war.

Its easy to see this gradually ratchet up step by step into an uncontrolled region wide conflict.

Ignim Brites , May 20, 2019 at 8:54 am

Not sure what to make of this article but the Anglo-American press is not providing much context for the recent ratcheting up of confrontation with Iran.

NotTimothyGeithner , May 20, 2019 at 10:11 am

The MSM is mostly stenographers and right leaning pundits. If no one tells them, they wouldn't know.

Also, the DC elites were pretty irked by Obama's Iran deal. They deferred to Obama and the Europeans who demanded the deal, but I think they live in a world where DC's enemies are the enemies of the American people who overwhelmingly supported the Iran deal. DC hasn't come to grips with this.

JBird4049 , May 20, 2019 at 12:20 pm

but I think they live in a world where DC's enemies are the enemies of the American people who overwhelmingly supported the Iran deal. DC hasn't come to grips with this.

Yes, because all pain, real blood and death, misery and horror that they cause in fighting what they assume putatively are "the American people's enemies" are never suffered by them, but only everyone else including the American people; all the financial benefits do go to them so it is all gain and no cost.

Ian Perkins , May 20, 2019 at 9:11 am

Will Lavrov and Wang Yi's guarantees prevent an Israeli nuclear attack on Iranian facilities, followed by US pledges to fully support Israel's right to self defence?

jackson , May 20, 2019 at 10:01 am

There are two kinds of weapons in the world offensive and defensive. The latter are cheaper, a fighter plane compared to a bomber. If a country does not (or cannot afford to) have offensive intent, it makes sense to focus on defense. It is what Iran has done. Moreover, its missile centered defense has a modern deadly twist -- the missiles are precision-guided. As an Iranian general remarked when questioned about the carrier task force: some years ago it would've been a threat he opined; now it's a target. Iran also has a large standing army of 350,000 plus a 120,000 strong Revolutionary Guard and Soviet style air defenses. In 2016 Russia started installation of the S-300 system. It has all kinds of variants, the most advanced, the S-300 PMU-3 has a range similar to the S-400 if equipped with 40N6E missiles, which are used also in the S-400. Their range is 400 km, so the Iranian batteries are virtually S-400s. The wily Putin has kept trump satisfied with the S-300 moniker without short-changing his and China's strategic ally. The latter continuing to buy Iranian oil.

Iran has friends in Europe also. Angela Merkel in particular has pointed out that Iran has complied fully with the nuclear provisions of the UN Security Council backed Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action i.e. the Iran nuclear deal. She is mustering the major European powers. Already alienated with Trump treating them as adversaries rather than friends, they find Trump's bullying tiresome. President Macron, his poll ratings hitting the lowest, is hardly likely to engage in Trump's venture. In Britain, Theresa May is barely able to hold on to her job. In the latest thrust by senior members of her party, she has been asked to name the day she steps down.

So there we have it. Nobody wants war with Iran. Even Israel, so far without a post-election government does not want to be rained upon by missiles leaky as its Iron Dome was against homemade Palestinian rockets. Topping all of this neither Trump nor Secretary of State Pompeo want war. Trump is as usual trying to bully -- now called maximum pressure -- Iran into submission. It won't. The wild card is National Security Adviser John Bolton. He wants war. A Gulf of Tonkin type false flag incident, or an Iranian misstep, or some accident can still set it off. In Iran itself, moderates like current President Hassan Rouhani are being weakened by Trump's shenanigans. The hard liners might well want to bleed America as happened in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Thomas P , May 20, 2019 at 12:13 pm

I don't trust those air defenses too much, where have they ever performed well? The scary part is where Iran assumes that USA can through repeated air strikes wipe out their missiles. They will from the start find themselves in a "use them or lose them" scenario and may launch everything as response to even a limited US strike, since they can't know if it is limited or the beginning of a full scale attack, and I doubt Iran is willing to go down without doing everything it can to hurt their enemies. (Possibly excluding Israel which is crazy enough to go nuclear in response).

[May 20, 2019] On The Cusp Of War Why Iran Won't Fold

May 20, 2019 | www.nakedcapitalism.com

Yves here. Glenn F sent along this story about recent events in the US-Iran conflict, many of which don't appear to have been reported in the English language press. Interestingly, the article takes the position that it is the Saudis that have been doing their best and largely succeeding in suppressing these reports.

Going into the weekend, it looked as if the US was trying to turn down the Iran threat meter a notch. Both Iran and the Saudis said they didn't want war but were prepared for one. Then a mystery rocket landed in the Green Zone in Baghdad. Oopsie. From the Wall Street Journal:

No major destruction was inflicted by the rocket, which landed near a museum displaying old planes and caused some damage to a building used by security guards, according to an official in the interior ministry.

The interior ministry official, who declined to be identified, said the rocket had landed around a kilometer from the U.S. Embassy inside Baghdad's Green Zone, where many other diplomatic missions and Iraqi government offices are located.

No group claimed responsibility. But security officials said security forces had found and seized a mobile rocket launcher in an area of Baghdad where Shiite militias, including some with close links to Iran, have a presence.

But also note this:

The Trump administration last week ordered a partial evacuation of its diplomatic missions in Baghdad and Erbil citing increased threats posed by Iran and its allies in Iraq. The Iraqi government has varying degrees of control over an array of armed groups, some of which are closely affiliated with Iran.

... ... ...

[May 18, 2019] If Washington were able to control everything, including "Big Prize" Iran, it would be able to dominate all Asian economies, especially China. Trump even said were that to happen, "decisions on the GNP of China will be made in Washington."

May 18, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

Peter AU 1 , May 18, 2019 2:15:40 AM | link

Without the oil, Trump has lost. Pepe Escobar is starting to get the picture

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2019/05/17/the-dead-dont-die-they-march-to-war/

"If President Trump had ever read Mackinder -- and there's no evidence he did -- one might assume that he's aiming at a new anti-Eurasia integration pivot centered on the Persian Gulf. And energy would be at the heart of the pivot.

If Washington were able to control everything, including "Big Prize" Iran, it would be able to dominate all Asian economies, especially China. Trump even said were that to happen, "decisions on the GNP of China will be made in Washington."...

...Arguably the key (invisible) takeaway of the meetings this week between Foreign Ministers Sergey Lavrov and Wang Yi, and then between Lavrov and Pompeo, is that Moscow made it quite clear that Iran will be protected by Russia in the event of an American showdown. Pompeo's body language showed how rattled he was.

What rattled Pomp: "Any use of nuclear weapons against Russia or its allies, be it small-scale, medium-scale or any other scale, will be treated as a nuclear attack on our country. The response will be instant and with all the relevant consequences,"

Trump may not have read Mackinder but Kissinger sure would have.

[May 16, 2019] Global fossil fuel subsidies hit record $5.2 trillion

May 16, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Hightrekker

says: 05/15/2019 at 9:51 am

Global fossil fuel subsidies hit record $5.2 trillion –
https://desdemonadespair.net/2019/05/global-fossil-fuel-subsidies-hit-record-5-2-trillion.html

The Free Market in action.

[May 16, 2019] The IEA's Dire Warning For Energy Markets: prepare for higher, possible much higher oil prices

Notable quotes:
"... Upstream spending rose by a modest 4 percent, which only partially repairs the savage cuts following the 2014 bust, which saw upstream spending fall by about 30 percent. However, the IEA said that 2019 could be a bit of a turning point, with a "new wave of conventional projects" in the works. ..."
"... Despite the increase in spending on new oil projects, "today's investment trends are misaligned with where the world appears to be heading," the IEA said. "Notably, approvals of new conventional oil and gas projects fall short of what would be needed to meet continued robust demand growth." ..."
"... Geographically, investment [in solar and wind] is concentrated in rich countries. Roughly 90 percent of total energy investment – both for fossil fuels and for renewable energy – was funneled into high- and upper-middle income regions. Rich countries alone accounted for 40 percent of total energy investment, despite only making up 15 percent of the global population. ..."
May 15, 2019 | www.zerohedge.com

Authored by Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com,

Global energy investment "stabilised" at just over $1.8 trillion in 2018, ending three years of declines.

Higher spending on oil, natural gas and coal was offset by declines in fossil fuel-based electricity generation and even a dip in renewable energy spending. China was the largest market for energy investment, even as the U.S. closed the gap.

After the 2014-2016 oil market bust, spending on oil and gas plunged, and only started to tick up last year. But the oil industry is not returning to its old spending ways. New investment is increasingly concentrated in short-cycle projects, namely, U.S. shale, "partly reflecting investor preferences for better managing capital at risk amid uncertainties over the future direction of the energy system," the IEA wrote in its report.

Upstream spending rose by a modest 4 percent, which only partially repairs the savage cuts following the 2014 bust, which saw upstream spending fall by about 30 percent. However, the IEA said that 2019 could be a bit of a turning point, with a "new wave of conventional projects" in the works.

Despite the increase in spending on new oil projects, "today's investment trends are misaligned with where the world appears to be heading," the IEA said. "Notably, approvals of new conventional oil and gas projects fall short of what would be needed to meet continued robust demand growth."

... ... ...

The good news is that costs continue to fall. Solar PV has seen costs decline by 75 percent since 2010, and onshore wind and battery storage costs are down by 20 percent and 50 percent, respectively. As such, a dollar spent on renewables buys a lot more energy than it used to, so flat investment is not entirely negative. And in a growing number of places, solar and wind are the cheapest option for power generation – increasingly cheaper than existing coal plants .

Geographically, investment [in solar and wind] is concentrated in rich countries. Roughly 90 percent of total energy investment – both for fossil fuels and for renewable energy – was funneled into high- and upper-middle income regions. Rich countries alone accounted for 40 percent of total energy investment, despite only making up 15 percent of the global population.

... ... ...


peakpeat , 1 hour ago link

Nothing, no EV's, solar, wind, coal or uranium is going to help. No tight shale, Arctic or North Slope oil is going to lift this sinking ship. There are no more new oil reserves to find and all the old fields are in a state of desperate high-tech extraction. We took all the easy stuff, Bakken and Permian are the last ditch effort. That's why all the playas have negative cash flow. That's why we are fecked.

Evil Liberals , 1 hour ago link

https://srsroccoreport.com/the-end-of-the-oil-giants-and-what-it-means/

Saudi Ghawar Field, admitted in decline

peakpeat , 59 minutes ago link

That was the last great elephant field. The largest resource ever discovered on the planet. Finally in decline. So goes Saudi Arabia. So goes OPEC. So goes mankind.

Evil Liberals , 2 hours ago link

Should have been building Nuclear Plants the last 20 years - that is Clean Energy.

Just don't build near the shore along the Ring of Fire or along Earthquake Fault Lines.

RDouglas , 2 hours ago link

Cheap crude was a 100 year party, the hangover has already begun. Fracked oil, tar sands, were a rescue remedy, funded by low interest rates, (debt). The massive population boom of the last century and a half directly coordinates with increasing oil production. If you aren't preparing yourself and your children for energy-down/population-down, you are insuring that YOUR decedents won't be among the 100 million or so people scratching out a living in North America in 100 years.

peakpeat , 57 minutes ago link

Before 1850 and the discovery of oil and coal, there were 1 billion people on the planet. Now there are 7 billion. 6 billion will die as the oil economy and oil infrastructure grinds to a halt. Better make you peace. Your plans are too late.

SilverSphinx , 5 hours ago link

Nuclear power generation is still King.

The use of nuclear power has resumed since the Fukushima disaster.

All the countries that swore off of nuclear power have returned to it and restarted their nuclear power plants and resumed construction on new plants.

Solarstone , 3 hours ago link

Let's hope you are right. It's the only viable option to oil

-- ALIEN -- , 3 hours ago link

2 words; Peak Uranium

"...Declining uranium production will make it impossible to obtain a significant increase in electrical power from nuclear plants in the coming decades."

Thorium Reactors...

"...A similar fate was encountered by another idea that involved "breeding" a nuclear fuel from a naturally existing element -- thorium. The concept involved transforming the 232 isotope of thorium into the fissile 233 isotope of uranium, which then could be used as fuel for a nuclear reactor (or for nuclear warheads). The idea was discussed at length during the heydays of the nuclear industry, andit is still discussed today; but so far, nothing has come out of it and the nuclear industry is still based on mineral uranium as fuel..."

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-01-18/peak-uranium-the-uncertain-future-of-nuclear-energy/

iSage , 2 hours ago link

There is a 1,000 years worth of uranium out west. I don't like the waste, used rods are hot for a long long time.

Cloud9.5 , 8 hours ago link

Mexican oil production is in decline. North Sea production is in decline. Alaskan production is in decline. There is a trend here.

peakpeat , 1 hour ago link

OPEC was the necessary cartel that helped to stabilize production and prices.

Now all of it including Saudi Arabia, Iran and the rest, all 14 nations past and present, is defunct. Output has been in decline since Nov. 2016. See IEA data or peakoilbarrel for a summary

JimmyJones , 8 hours ago link

US has enough coal to power us for over 200 years.

afronaut , 8 hours ago link

Not to mention natural gas

Ignorance is bliss , 8 hours ago link

Cool..How do I fill my BMW up with coal? How about that just in time delivery. Anyone ever try to power a semi-truck with coal? Eactly what do we pave the road ways with? Coal?

BangDingOw , 7 hours ago link

Yeesh. All wrong. Most important, slick Willie gave us our china trade problems, and then demand for raw commods in china soared. In response, his geniuses gave us the cfma, which was passed to let the JPMs of the world naked short commodities till the cows came home. However, china demand growth was so far in excess of supply growth that several of the WS firms saw the writing on the wall and went long. Thus the pols amazement when finding out v=bear stearns was actually long oil. Finally prices got high enough that supply growth started overtaking demand growth. We have been going down , on average, since. china demand late 90s oil wa 3Mbpd, currently 13Mbpd

[May 13, 2019] Buffet bet is a bet that the ol price will go up

May 13, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

shallow sand x Ignored says: 05/08/2019 at 2:05 pm

Buffett put it very simply. If oil prices go up OXY can make a lot of money.

$100 oil they will make a lot, especially on their CO2 projects in the Permian, and in Oman, where they own a decent chunk of flowing BOPD.

It's a bet on oil going up, plus getting 8% interest for loaning them $10 billion. They go with preferred stock for the favorable dividend tax treatment.

It is only a bad deal if oil stays here or below long term. Assuming a 10-15 year cycle, by 2025-2030 oil will surely rocket up.

Boomer II x Ignored says: 05/09/2019 at 12:41 am
It's a good deal for Berkshire, but not a good deal for Occidental.

"The 8 percent yield on the preferreds is way above Oxy's pre-bidding dividend yield of 4.7 percent and equivalent to a pre-tax cost of debt of about 10 percent, roughly triple the company's bond yield. That's before counting the warrants, equivalent to 9 percent dilution on the pro forma share count, plus the redemption premium.

This wasn't a bet on Oxy, the Permian shale basin or even oil prices; Buffett could have just bought stock in the open market for that. This was about extracting as much as possible from a company that really needed the promise of a big slug of cash."

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-05-08/chevron-vs-occidental-for-anadarko-what-will-winning-mean

Boomer II x Ignored says: 05/09/2019 at 12:45 am
If Occidental gets the deal, its bond rating will go down.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3460887-moodys-says-likely-downgrade-occidental-wins-anadarko

Boomer II x Ignored says: 05/08/2019 at 2:17 am
According to Buffett, he is betting on oil prices and the Permian.

Also, Berkshire might have bought Anadarko directly, if asked. Which seems odd.

"Asked why Berkshire wouldn't just buy Anadarko itself, Buffett said, 'That might have happened if Anadarko came to us, but we wouldn't jump into some other deal that we heard about from somebody else coming to us seeking financing.'

Later in the interview, longtime investing partner and vice chairman Charlie Munger responded to the question as well, saying, 'Nobody asked us to.'"

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/06/buffett-says-occidental-petroleum-investment-is-a-bet-on-oil-prices-over-the-long-term.html

[May 13, 2019] Will Trump pressure on Iran result in the spike of oil prices?

May 13, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Ron Patterson x Ignored says: 05/07/2019 at 4:51 pm

currently they are forecasting about a 750 kb/d increase annually from Dec 2018 to Dec 2020.

Yes, but they are predicting the lions share of that gain in 2019. That is they are predicting a US increase in production of 1,200 kb/d in 2019 and a gain of 350 kb/d in 2020. (Dec. to Dec. in each case.)

Note: This is C+C, not Total Liquids.

Obviously, they are expecting a slowdown in the oil patch in 2020. That slowdown just may come about a year earlier than expected.

Dennis Coyne x Ignored says: 05/08/2019 at 7:42 am
Ron,

I agree, 2019 is too high, but I still think the overall change from Dec 2018 to Dec 2020 will be about right (2019 increase will be less than STEO, but 2020 increase will be greater).

It is doubtful their forecast will be precisely correct, nor will anyone's, but the overall increase from Dec 2018 to Dec 2020 seems pretty reasonable. I agree that the expected increase in 2019 will be less than the 1.2 Mb/d the EIA currently forecasts, about 700 kb/d this year and 850 kb/d next year seems more reasonable if Brent oil prices gradually rise to $85/b (2018$) over the May 2019 to Dec 2020 period as I expect (with lots of volatility along the way). Basically I expect the centered average 5 week Brent spot price may reach $85/b some time before Dec 31, 2020.

Ron Patterson x Ignored says: 05/08/2019 at 8:19 am
Dennis, the EIA clearly sees the slowdown in the shale oil patch coming. They think it will hit next year, 2020. The EIA has a history of being overly optimistic. Yet yet, in this case, you think they are being pessimistic. You see shale production increasing in 2020 over 2019. That just seems very strange to me.

However, I will just have to leave it at that. We will both just have to wait and see.

Dennis Coyne x Ignored says: 05/09/2019 at 7:27 am
Ron,

I expect oil prices will be higher towards the end of 2019, profits for tight oil producers will be higher, there will be a higher well completion rates (higher capital spending budgets) in 2020 as a result and the rate of increase in tight oil output will increase a bit (I am assuming 700 kb/d in 2019 and 800 kb/d in 2020, this is essentially no change in the rate of increase). In the end we don't know as we don't know future oil prices and how they will affect investment decisions. The main point is that in the end the output in Dec 2020 may be pretty close to the EIA estimate. That estimate is neither pessimistic or optimistic, it is realistic. The path that output will take from March 2019 to Dec 2020 is impossible to predict, a straight line guess is as good as any.

Ron Patterson x Ignored says: 05/09/2019 at 7:49 am
I understand Dennis, hope springs eternal in the shale oil patch, for some folks anyway.

I agree that oil prices are about to spike. World oil production is currently falling like a rock. Brent prices are in backwardation, meaning traders also expect prices to rise. However, I do not believe, as you do, that this will automatically cause a dramatic increase in oil production. The effect will be feeble at best. Well, in my opinion anyway.

Dennis Coyne x Ignored says: 05/09/2019 at 1:27 pm
Hi Ron,

I also do not expect a dramatic increase, I actually expect the recent rate of annual increase of 1.6 Mb/d to slow to about half of the previous rate (0.8 Mb/d) and continue to slow over time to near zero by 2024.

We'll see.

[May 13, 2019] Does EIA preducttion of dramatic rise in shale oil output means that they predict dramatic rise on oil prices: shale is not profitable for most companies below $70-$80 a barrel.

May 13, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Ovi x Ignored says: 05/07/2019 at 5:04 pm

Attached are the changing monthly STEO projections for February, March and April for the lower 48 production. Today's projection, April, has added 230 kb/d day by year end 2019 to the March projection and close to 300 kb/d in 2020. The April projection also shows an increase of 960 kb/d from Dec 18 to Dec 19. For Dec 19 to Dec 20, the increase is only 420 kb/d, less than half of the 18 to 19 increase. Any speculation/ideas for the lower increase for 19 to 20. The G of M drops by 70 kb/d from Dec 19 to Dec 20.

Ron Patterson x Ignored says: 05/07/2019 at 5:37 pm
Thanks, Ovi.

You notice that the April 19 STEO has the lowest production numbers for Jan. Feb. and April 2019 but the highest numbers as they move into the second half of 2019 and all of 2020.

I don't know what to make of this except that I find it rather amusing.

GuyM x Ignored says: 05/07/2019 at 6:27 pm
I found it insulting to my intelligence (not an exceptionally difficult task), but now that you mention it, I can imagine some Lewis Carroll feel to it.
ProPoly x Ignored says: 05/07/2019 at 4:48 pm
How are they adding 100k+ net non-Gulf when their own drilling productivity reports have the Permian at less than half that growth? With Eagle Ford and Bakken not growing. Doesn't add up even before taking out legacy decline elsewhere.

[May 13, 2019] Price range $55-65 WTI would still be ok for small traditional producers, but shale producers need $75-80

Notable quotes:
"... A word about the LTO metric of the month, free cash flow. Cash flow ain't "free" if one is still in debt. IMO, 1Q19 was awful for the US shale oil industry. It used cash flow for buy backs, to meet dividend demands by pissed off investors, to pay absurd prices for undeveloped acreage in the Permian, for reserve replacement (75% of ALL wells now drilled in America's shale basins simply offset last year's annualized decline) and still eked out a little growth. Nothing to very little went of nothing went to voluntary deleveraging. At less than $75-80, it can't be done. ..."
May 13, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

shallow sand x Ignored says: 05/11/2019 at 11:32 pm

Dennis. Things were going good until 11/18, when the price started to crater. Thankfully we are back up. However, our price for December through March averaged $48 and change, which is making money, but not much.

Expenses have stayed relatively stable. Labor goes up a little each year. Electricity has actually dropped a few percent. Chemicals have stayed the same since we received a 10% cut in 2016. Steel is up some, so rods and tubing are a little higher.

$55-65 WTI would still be ok. Liked $70s last fall, before the Donald got involved with Iran waivers and tweets.

My comment was poking at the Donald, et al, who think that since $25 was a great price in 1990 it should still be ok today.

Clearly, although $55-65 is good for us, maybe not good enough for others. In particular, the service companies who continue to lay bleeding to death on the side of the road.

We still have no plans to drill. Have five workovers planned for summer to fight the decline.

Mike Shellman x Ignored says: 05/12/2019 at 10:37 am
Dennis, you are kind; thank you. My belief is that if one can't make money at $50/2.50, and cope with 30% price swings for months at a time, one should be in the lawn mowing business instead. The US shale oil industry could therefore keep most of America looking like Augusta National.

A word about the LTO metric of the month, free cash flow. Cash flow ain't "free" if one is still in debt. IMO, 1Q19 was awful for the US shale oil industry. It used cash flow for buy backs, to meet dividend demands by pissed off investors, to pay absurd prices for undeveloped acreage in the Permian, for reserve replacement (75% of ALL wells now drilled in America's shale basins simply offset last year's annualized decline) and still eked out a little growth. Nothing to very little went of nothing went to voluntary deleveraging. At less than $75-80, it can't be done.

Hughes has a new report out clearly showing Mother Nature is having Her say in the shale oil phenomena. Nobody messes with Mother Nature.

Dennis Coyne x Ignored says: 05/12/2019 at 11:27 am
Thanks Mike,

Agree higher oil prices are needed for tight oil producers to reduce their debt. If long term oil prices remain $50/b, they are toast.

I read a blurb on the new Hughes paper, but I am a bit of a cheapskate and was not willing to put down $250 for the report so I have not read it.

From your perspective, do you think oil prices are likely to remain $50/b long term? (lets call it the 52 week average oil price). It seems to me there will not be adequate supply on the World oil market at $50/b, perhaps $65 or $70/b (in 2019 US$) would do it.

You know infinitely more than me about the oil business and you have been in it for a while (40+ years as an owner I believe), so your take would be of interest to me and I imagine everyone who reads this blog.

Synapsid x Ignored says: 05/12/2019 at 11:46 am
Mike,

Robert Rapier has an article–new, I think–about Free Cash Flow at OilPrice. Nicely detailed.

[May 13, 2019] Samuelson points out how flawed economists are. And that includes projection of oil production

May 13, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Boomer II x Ignored says: 05/12/2019 at 9:09 pm

As many of you, I don't expect business as usual to continue. We get projections based on past trends, but with oil being finite and the globe already showing the effects of climate change, I think we are in for a tumultuous future.

Samuelson points out how flawed economists are.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/economists-often-dont-know-what-theyre-talking-about/2019/05/12/f91517d4-7338-11e9-9eb4-0828f5389013_story.html

[May 12, 2019] Could it be all about the oil caucus99percent

May 12, 2019 | caucus99percent.com

Could it be all about the oil?


span y gjohnsit on Fri, 05/10/2019 - 11:48am The Trump Administration made it perfectly clear: no more waivers on Iranian sanctions. No exceptions .

"We're going to zero. We're going to zero across the board," US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told reporters after the White House made the announcement in a statement. "There are no (oil) waivers that extend beyond that period, full stop," he said, adding that there would be no grace period for those economies to comply.

Got it? No exceptions. This is about values and principles. This is about Iranian terrorism (or some such nonsense).

Wait a sec. What happened to 'no more waivers, no exceptions'?
Well, ya see, a funny thing happened along the way.


Iraq will soon finalize a large-scale, long-term deal for the development of oil fields in the South with Exxon and PetroChina. The 30-year contract will involve investments of US$53 billion and potential returns for Baghdad of as much as US$400 billion over its lifetime, Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi told media this week.

I know what you are thinking, but I am here to tell you conclusively that the timing is all a coincidence. Billions of dollars in Exxon profits have no effect on our foreign policy decisions.

Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said on Tuesday there was no link between an initial oil agreement his government was about to sign with Exxon Mobil and its receipt of waivers from the United States exempting it from sanctions on Iran.

There you go. A deeply corrupt Iraqi politician denies that the two events are related. What more proof do you want?

span y magiamma on Fri, 05/10/2019 - 11:53am
Great news

More oil extraction. But just not our oil extraction. Oh well, oil well...

span y Not Henry Kissinger on Fri, 05/10/2019 - 12:29pm
To paraphrase John McCain...

The US is an oil company masquerading as a country .

span y Alligator Ed on Fri, 05/10/2019 - 2:38pm
Do I detect a bit of cynicism here?

@Not Henry Kissinger

I know what you are thinking, but I am here to tell you conclusively that the timing is all a coincidence. Billions of dollars in Exxon profits have no effect on our foreign policy decisions.

Of course it's a coincidence! Have you never heard about America's great humanitarian wars, a phrase which we owe to great patriot Susan Powers? And, do you not fail to realize that Barack Hussein O'Bama* was our greatest president since Franklin Pierce?

*You know also that BHO is a black Irishman (groan).

The US is an oil company masquerading as a country .

span y Anja Geitz on Fri, 05/10/2019 - 5:38pm
I'm a bit surprised

@Not Henry Kissinger

John McCain was that astutely satiric. In any case, I think I'll borrow it if you don't mind.

The US is an oil company masquerading as a country .

span y snoopydawg on Fri, 05/10/2019 - 4:51pm
Nothing like folding a winning hand early

Iraq should have said that they will buy Iranian oil for as long as they want in exchange for signing the agreement. But I'm guess that the guy who inked the deal is one of our puppets?.

span y dervish on Fri, 05/10/2019 - 6:00pm
I wonder if Iraq could launder

@snoopydawg Iranian oil as their own, ad infinitum?

Iraq should have said that they will buy Iranian oil for as long as they want in exchange for signing the agreement. But I'm guess that the guy who inked the deal is one of our puppets?.

[May 06, 2019] Think of bomb-bomb-bomb as OPEC by other means

Notable quotes:
"... ...The Saudi-led OPEC+ production cut strategy is still in place, but it is partly successful due to the negative repercussions of the sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. The high level of compliance with the agreement (128%) is based on the loss of these particular volumes. At the same time, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Russia, are sticking to their roles, cutting as needed. Optimism about Iraq is based on uncertain assumptions, while Libya's overall situation is highly volatile. ..."
May 06, 2019 | www.zerohedge.com

The removal of U.S. waivers for leading oil importers of Iranian oil and gas is putting the Tehran regime under severe pressure. While Trump's target of reducing Iranian production to zero is unrealistic, the impact of the sanctions is undeniable.

...The Saudi-led OPEC+ production cut strategy is still in place, but it is partly successful due to the negative repercussions of the sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. The high level of compliance with the agreement (128%) is based on the loss of these particular volumes. At the same time, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Russia, are sticking to their roles, cutting as needed. Optimism about Iraq is based on uncertain assumptions, while Libya's overall situation is highly volatile.

...In the coming weeks, as analysts focus on production figures, storage volumes and demand, OPEC will be focusing on defusing pressure to increase production, while at the same time the Saudi-led faction will likely confront the Tehran-Venezuela (and possibly Iraqi) axis. Iran has openly threatened to undermine OPEC's stability if no support can be gathered before the June meeting. In several statements to the press, Iran's oil Minister has warned that OPEC is in danger of collapse. Tehran threatens at present to take all necessary measures to block oil and gas flows from OPEC members that are supporting the U.S. sanctions regime. At the same time, Tehran has warned to take measures against countries trying to fill in the supply gap left by Iran. Zanganeh reiterated the latter during a meeting with OPEC secretary general Barkindo in Tehran. Barkindo reacted by saying that OPEC will do its utmost to depoliticize oil and gas policies of the organization. OPEC's SG statements however look very bleak in light of the growing heat in the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

scraping_by , 4 hours ago link

Much of the shambolic belligerence and pointless aggression of Not-A-Neocon Trump can be seen as cutting down world oil production in service of higher prices for SA's royals and, a very distant second, US shale producers. Venezuela isn't an existential threat to the US, not like Goldman Sachs, but embargoes on oil would keep the price up. Iran's not an existential threat, but oil embargoes... Syria's not an existential threat but putting the oil on the black market...

Think of bomb-bomb-bomb as OPEC by other means.

[May 05, 2019] A sharp spike in oil prices is another danger with which the administration now lands itself. Together, US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran will take roughly 2 million barrels of oil a day out of the market

Notable quotes:
"... First, the new turn in the administration's Iran policy appears to mark a decisive defeat for President Donald Trump in his long-running battle with his foreign policy minders. It is now very unlikely Trump will achieve any of his policy objectives, a number of which represent useful alternatives to the stunningly shambolic strategies advanced by Pompeo, National Security Advisor John Bolton, and other zealots in the administration. ..."
"... Second, this administration's foreign policy has steadily assumed an irrational character that may be unprecedented in U.S. history. This is perilous. The administration's near-paranoiac hostility toward Pyongyang and Moscow are cases in point. So is its evident indifference to alienating longstanding allies across the Atlantic and in Asia. As of this week, however, Pompeo's "down to zero" policy makes Iran the most immediate danger. ..."
"... The question is why this administration's foreign policies are so amateurish and discombobulated. Corollary question: Why is the president surrounded by policy advisers so thoroughly at odds with those of his objectives that are worthwhile? ..."
"... Trump may not have chosen his foreign policy team so much as its members have been imposed upon him. ..."
"... He was self-evidently behind the decision to move the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and the announcement in March that Washington recognizes Israeli jurisdiction over the Golan Heights. ..."
"... It is unlikely anything is all done in connection with the embassy move and the Golan Heights decision. Both run diametrically counter to international law and both have significantly damaged U.S. credibility in the Middle East. Trump, in short, makes his own miscalculations, and they are as grave as any made by the Pompeo–Bolton axis. There are few wise heads in this administration. ..."
"... You guys fail to see that the notion that Trump and Co genuinely seek to "improve ties" with Russia is a key element of the larger "Russiagate" psyop, a truly laughable idea which is disproved not only by the longer term historical record, but also by the veritable mountain of evidence that has accrued since Trump came into office demonstrating that this administration has only EXACERBATED the empire's long running and profoundly anti-Russian foreign policy agenda. ..."
"... Irrational foreign policy? I wish the United States would just drop the charade and declare itself a global empire. What we see is the foreign policy of empire. Is this rational or isn't it? ..."
"... Current US foreign policy is aligned to impose maximum pressure on countries like Venezuela and Iran in order to pressure those governments and hopefully topple them with sanctions. The entire World is hungry for oil and the demand for oil is expanding at an exponential rate which in turn guides US foreign policy. ..."
The US Moves on Iran's Oil Market as an Expression of an Irrational Foreign Policy by Patrick Lawrence
April 29, 2019 | consortiumnews.com

65 Comments

Patrick Lawrence gauges the backfiring potential of Pompeo's withdrawal on Thursday of U.S. sanction waivers from eight major importers.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's announcement last week that no importer of Iranian oil will henceforth be exempt from U.S. sanctions is as risky as it is misguided. The withdrawal of waivers as of this Thursday effectively gives eight importers dependent on Iranian crude -- India, Japan, South Korea, China, Turkey, Taiwan, Italy, and Greece -- 10 days' notice to adjust their petroleum purchases.

This is now a full-court press: The intent is to cut off Iran's access to any oil market anywhere as part of the administration's "maximum pressure" campaign against Tehran. "We are going to zero," Pompeo said as he disclosed the new policy.

Nobody is going to zero. The administration's move will further damage the Iranian economy, certainly, but few outside the administration think it is possible to isolate Iran as comprehensively as Pompeo seems to expect.

Insights on Overreach

There are a couple of insights to be gleaned from this unusually aggressive case of policy overreach.

First, the new turn in the administration's Iran policy appears to mark a decisive defeat for President Donald Trump in his long-running battle with his foreign policy minders. It is now very unlikely Trump will achieve any of his policy objectives, a number of which represent useful alternatives to the stunningly shambolic strategies advanced by Pompeo, National Security Advisor John Bolton, and other zealots in the administration.

Weakened by relentless "Russia-gate" investigations, for instance, the president has little chance now of improving ties with Moscow or negotiating with adversaries such as Iran and North Korea, as he has long advocated.

In a Face the Nation interview Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Tehran would be open to bilateral talks under the right conditions. It was the second time in a week that Zarif made this point. But those around Trump, not least Bolton and Pompeo, are sure to block any such prospect -- or sabotage talks if they do take place, as they did Trump's second summit with Kim Jong-un, North Korea's leader, in late February.

Second, this administration's foreign policy has steadily assumed an irrational character that may be unprecedented in U.S. history. This is perilous. The administration's near-paranoiac hostility toward Pyongyang and Moscow are cases in point. So is its evident indifference to alienating longstanding allies across the Atlantic and in Asia. As of this week, however, Pompeo's "down to zero" policy makes Iran the most immediate danger.

Persian Gulf Chokepoint

Iranian officials, including Zarif, now threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz, chokepoint of the Persian Gulf, if Iranian tankers are prevented from passing through it. This is an indirect warning that the Iranian military could confront the U.S. Fifth Fleet, which operates in the Gulf and adjacent waters.

A sharp spike in oil prices is another danger with which the administration now lands itself. Taken together, U.S. sanctions against Venezuela and Iran are intended to take roughly 2 million barrels of oil a day out of the market.

Saudi Arabia has pledged to make up the lost supply, but many analysts question its ability to sustain an increase in output given the advancing depletion of its long-productive Ghawar field. Spare capacity among producers is already wafer-thin. Do we need to risk another oil crisis, given the flagging global economy?

Trump's foreign policy minders also risk alienating allies -- South Korea, Japan, India, the Europeans -- whose cooperation the U.S. needs on numerous other policy questions. In the case of China, the administration puts progress on a nearly complete trade deal and Beijing's leverage with North Korea in jeopardy.

There are other cases demonstrating the Trump administration's apparently thorough indifference to collateral damage and the animosity of allies. Since the U.S. abandoned the Paris climate pact and the 2015 accord governing Iran's nuclear program, the Europeans have hardly contained their anger; they are openly furious now about the tightened sanctions against Iran. The South Koreans, frustrated with Washington's intransigent stance toward Pyongyang, now search for ways to engage the North despite many layers of UN and U.S–imposed sanctions.

The question is why this administration's foreign policies are so amateurish and discombobulated. Corollary question: Why is the president surrounded by policy advisers so thoroughly at odds with those of his objectives that are worthwhile?

Trump arrived in Washington an outsider: This is where answers to these questions begin. This limited the New York dealmaker to a shallow pool from which to build his administration. His never-ending Russia-gate problem further handicaps him. This administration is among the most opaque in recent history, so certainties as to its internal workings are hard to come by. But Trump may not have chosen his foreign policy team so much as its members have been imposed upon him.

However his advisers arrived in the administration, they are a toxic combination of neoconservatives, many drawn from the Heritage Foundation , and evangelical Christians . Bolton is emblematic of the former, Pompeo of the latter. This is the current complexion of American foreign policy.

Zealots and Crusaders

Both camps are populated with zealots and crusaders; both cultivate irrational world views rooted in extremist ideology and sentiment. Bolton's obsession is the restoration of unchallenged U.S. supremacy. Pompeo is said to view adversaries such as North Korea and Iran as George W. Bush did : The U.S. is in an "end times" war with Gog and Magog, biblical manifestations of the evil abroad in the world.

To be clear, there is more wrong than right in the president's foreign policy thinking. He was self-evidently behind the decision to move the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and the announcement in March that Washington recognizes Israeli jurisdiction over the Golan Heights.

"This is very important strategically for victory, heights, because you're up high, very important," Trump said over the weekend. "Fifty-two years ago this started [when Israel captured Golan from Syria in the 1967 war] and I did it quickly. Done. It's all done."

It is unlikely anything is all done in connection with the embassy move and the Golan Heights decision. Both run diametrically counter to international law and both have significantly damaged U.S. credibility in the Middle East. Trump, in short, makes his own miscalculations, and they are as grave as any made by the Pompeo–Bolton axis. There are few wise heads in this administration.

At the same time, Trump's desire to negotiate with adversaries -- Russia, Iran, North Korea -- is entirely defensible. But the "down to zero" Iran policy to take effect this week can be read as a signal of the president's failure to counter the foreign policy Manicheans who surround him.

There may be skirmishes to come, but the battle is over. We must now watch as extremist ideologues accelerate America's already evident decline as a global power -- along with its increasing isolation.

Patrick Lawrence, a correspondent abroad for many years, chiefly for the International Herald Tribune , is a columnist, essayist, author, and lecturer. His most recent book is "Time No Longer: Americans After the American Century" (Yale). Follow him @thefloutist. His web site is www.patricklawrence.us. Support his work via www.patreon.com/thefloutist .


Brian James , May 2, 2019 at 12:23

Apr 30, 2019 A New Mega Cartel Is Emerging In Oil Markets

China and India -- two of the world's largest oil importers and the biggest demand growth centers globally -- are close to setting up an oil buyers' club to have a say in the pricing and sourcing of crude oil amid OPEC's cuts and U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, Indian outlet livemint reports, citing three officials with knowledge of the talks.

https://youtu.be/lgkGNyd6pR4

vinnieoh , May 3, 2019 at 14:33

Thanks for that link, I'm sure I'll follow this. I feel the same apprehension the narrator's inflection seemed to convey in closing "We'll have to see where this leads." That apprehension is that this will push the war-mongers to accelerate the timetable for an attack on Iran.

Stuart Davies , May 1, 2019 at 09:00

Sorry to see that Consortium News still maintains their commitment to the ludicrous premise that Trump is "pro Russian" at heart:

" the new turn in the administration's Iran policy appears to mark a decisive defeat for President Donald Trump in his long-running battle with his foreign policy minders .Weakened by relentless "Russia-gate" investigations, for instance, the president has little chance now of improving ties with Moscow or negotiating with adversaries such as Iran and North Korea, as he has long advocated."

Utter nonsense. You guys fail to see that the notion that Trump and Co genuinely seek to "improve ties" with Russia is a key element of the larger "Russiagate" psyop, a truly laughable idea which is disproved not only by the longer term historical record, but also by the veritable mountain of evidence that has accrued since Trump came into office demonstrating that this administration has only EXACERBATED the empire's long running and profoundly anti-Russian foreign policy agenda.

O Society , April 30, 2019 at 13:20

Irrational foreign policy? I wish the United States would just drop the charade and declare itself a global empire. What we see is the foreign policy of empire. Is this rational or isn't it?

https://opensociet.org/2019/03/21/the-american-emperor-has-no-clothes/

elmerfudzie , April 30, 2019 at 13:16

Asymmetric warfare with Iran has already begun. Internet based "worms" and economic sanctions have, so far, been successfully coordinated in concert with our rather reluctant Western Occident allies. These attacks have been more or less been kept at bay. The alternative, direct military intervention would prove to be a new "holocaust" and would target roughly seventy separate nuclear research sites and dozens of scattered air force bases. The weapons of choice would be DU-38 munitions and huge bombs. DU has a proven record against fortified concrete and armored structures. It has an infamous reputation for leaving permanent, radioactive "ground shine" wherever used. Lest we all (never) forget the absolutely horribly deformed children born in southern Iraq who suffered prenatal exposure to radiation poisoning! In war, it's always the most vulnerable and innocent to suffer the most for example; Yemeni civilians.

The militant factions of our Pentagon and Congress (found within both sides of the political aisle) will continue to pursue the long range plan I outlined some time ago in a CONSORTIUMNEWS commentary. To recap it, this tug-of-war is not so much about trading in the USD as it is about a global oil glut. I believe it was Bandar bin Sultan who commented that, and I'm paraphrasing him here; there's plenty of relatively easy oil everywhere, the idea to grasp is, what countries will be permitted to extract and sell it? Thus, the global and persistent NeoCon plan seems to be to cap or severely restrict, Libyan, Iranian and Iraqi oil reserves, meanwhile making backroom deals that permit a few SCO, (reluctantly) Russian, Saudi, African and US/Canadian reserves to flourish on the open market. Venezuelan oil will act as the back up resource should, a regional nuclear war in the middle east result in irreversible damage to "friendly" refineries and ready access to them. Again, ground shine due to a deployment of neutron A-weaponry (N-Bombs)..most likely from Israel. Ah!, sweet treachery in times of war eh? Need I remind our CONSORTIUMNEWS readership of Hitlers last minute betrayal of Stalin? The Israelis want a "piece of the oil action" too!

Us , April 30, 2019 at 10:59

So sorry to see the country ripped apart. Hatful , boasting reprobates behind the steering wheel

vinnieoh , April 30, 2019 at 10:05

Thank you Mr. Lawrence for, if nothing else, hypothesizing or postulating why the Trump administration foreign policy is as you say, so amateurish and discombobulated. But I do agree with Drew Hunkins below that for whatever reasons(*), Trump himself has always vilified and mocked Iran. He is nothing if not a scurrilous opportunist, and threatening Iran just fits his personality as a bully. Very few if any of the other kids on the playground have the guts or integrity to come to Iran's defense.

It lightened my spirit just a little bit when you said that the Trump administration "is one of the most opaque in recent history." Why, just yesterday I heard our glorious leader say that his administration is the most transparent ever in American history. I wish that I should live long enough to see the use of such superlatives disappear from our discourse.

I somehow missed Mr. Zarif's several statements concerning a willingness to engage in bilateral talks. That is almost flabbergasting. Which Iranians could possibly believe there is an honest negotiator now anywhere close to the levers of power in DC? But Zarif continues to hold to and operate in the terms of classic diplomacy: do not close any doors forever, and; do not relinquish the high ground of sensibleness and integrity to your opponent. But, surely there aren't ANY Iranians who believe that the US would make any concessions, de-escalate any of our threats, or place a muzzle on our two rabid dog allies.

(*) It is my firm belief that the overwhelming motivation for much of what Trump does goes back directly to the annual DC correspondents dinner where Obama publicly and rightfully humiliated and mocked that fat-assed moron. And well he should have. It didn't miss my notice that Trump once again skipped that event. He will never attend – it was the absolute lowest point of his public life (so far), everybody laughing at him and that horrible skinny n####r twisting the rhetorical knife relentlessly. I'm reminded of a short story of Harlan Ellison's called "Stardust." I'll leave it to the curious to follow that lead. Narcissism as a genetic "addiction."

vinnieoh , April 30, 2019 at 10:17

Right after the 2016 election I posted something to the effect that perhaps we should ask native Americans if they think it is unusual that an unprincipled real estate speculator is now the captain of the state.

Zhu , April 30, 2019 at 01:22

Thanks for confirming that Pompeo is a Dispensationalist, eager for the End of the World.

Roberto , April 30, 2019 at 08:01

The neocons, Bolton and Pompeo, are not going to put an end to the world, because the Greek Islands need nothing from the United States. They only need a little gasoline for their cars and motor scooters. However, the neocons are going to put an end to the petrodollar, because no one on earth can trust the "out of control government" of the United States, any longer.

CitizenOne , April 30, 2019 at 01:06

During the Iraq war there were many calls from conservatives to not stop at the border with Iran. They supported a plan to roll US tanks and other offensive forces until they reached Tehran and obliterated it defeating the rogue nation and securing Iranian oil fields.

The scenario proposed today to strangle resource rich nations by war hawks is similar to the post war imaginings posed by Patton to keep on going until the US armed forces reached Moscow. It is similar to the plans of MacArthur to lay down a nuclear radiation barrier along North Korea's northern border with China to create a lethal ionizing radioactive zone or no mans land to prevent China from sending Chinese troops across the border.

Each one of these proposed but never implemented war strategies in hind sight would have probably netted the US great gains at minimal risk.

On one hand, the current administrations strategy and tactics to wage economic war against US "enemies" which are all rich with oil reserves seems like the right aggressive maneuvers to make easy wins for the USA. On the other hand the World has changed since those times.

Current US foreign policy is aligned to impose maximum pressure on countries like Venezuela and Iran in order to pressure those governments and hopefully topple them with sanctions. The entire World is hungry for oil and the demand for oil is expanding at an exponential rate which in turn guides US foreign policy.

There is thousands of years of history of nations including the US to takeover the riches of nations and profit from the resources.

... ... ...

[May 01, 2019] India and Europe stopped buying iranian oil. 1 billion $ of iranian oil stays blocked in China, no one wants to touch it. Even Khamenei admitted that Europe left the JCPOA in practise.

Notable quotes:
"... The Empire is not weak, this is poor analysis. India and Europe stopped buying Iranian oil. 1 billion $ of Iranian oil stays blocked in China, no one wants to touch it. Even Khamenei admitted that Europe left the JCPOA in practice. ..."
"... Iran is in deep recession. Venezuela is in deep recession and is surrounded. ..."
"... Iraq? US troops are staying there. Syria? US troops are staying there long term. 1 third of the country containing the biggest oil fields is under US control. There is fuel shortage crisis due to sanctions. Europe is not stopping its sanctions either. ..."
May 01, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

Passer by , May 1, 2019 8:19:31 PM | link

"The Empire only appears to be strong. In reality it is weak, confused, clueless"

The Empire is not weak, this is poor analysis. India and Europe stopped buying Iranian oil. 1 billion $ of Iranian oil stays blocked in China, no one wants to touch it. Even Khamenei admitted that Europe left the JCPOA in practice.

Iran is in deep recession. Venezuela is in deep recession and is surrounded. Almost all of Latin America now has pro-US governments. CIA linked Bolsonaro took over in Brazil. Turkey is in deep recession and Erdogan lost the big cities.

India is moving closer to the US. Europe remains a vassal. Russian economic growth is weak. The US won the trade war against China as Andrei Martyanov himself admitted.

Iraq? US troops are staying there. Syria? US troops are staying there long term. 1 third of the country containing the biggest oil fields is under US control. There is fuel shortage crisis due to sanctions. Europe is not stopping its sanctions either.

There is no doubt that they will be weaker in the future, but they will fight hard to stop this and gain time.

[Apr 30, 2019] What Oil at $100 a Barrel Would Mean for the World Economy

Apr 30, 2019 | www.bloomberg.com

2. How can the world economy absorb oil at $100?

For a sustained hit to growth, economists say oil would need to hold above $100. It also depends on dollar strength or weakness, given crude is priced in greenbacks. Analysis by Oxford Economics found that Brent at $100 per barrel by the end of 2019 means the level of global gross domestic product would be 0.6 percent lower than currently projected by end-2020, with inflation on average 0.7 percentage points higher.

"We see increased risks of significantly higher oil prices," Oxford economists John Payne and Gabriel Sterne wrote in a note. "In the short-run, it is likely the supply impact will be offset by higher production elsewhere, but the market is tightening and all it would take is one more shock to supply and oil could reach $100."

3. How will Iran and Trump impact the market?

An upending of global oil trade around the Iran-Trump spat could continue to have a sizable impact on financial markets, as the affected supply is as much as 800,000 barrels a day. Uncertainties around availability have already whipsawed oil markets . And the political sensitivities of these developments have other markets bracing for volatility.

Trump has pledged to help, alongside Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E., those needing to shift orders from Iran to another supplier. But U.S. claims that its domestic supply can help offset the loss are a high bar to meet, given that the daily American output for similar crude is about a quarter of Iran's.

4. Who wins from higher oil prices?

Emerging economies dominate the list of oil-producing nations which is why they're affected more than developed ones. The increase in revenues will help to repair budgets and current account deficits, allowing governments to increase spending that will spur investment. Winners include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Nigeria and Ecuador according to analysis by Nomura.

5. Who loses?

Those emerging economies nursing current account and fiscal deficits run the risk of large capital outflows and weaker currencies, which in turn would spark inflation. That in turn will force governments and central banks to weigh up their options: hike interest rates even as growth slows or ride it out and risk capital flight. Nomura's losers list includes Turkey, Ukraine and India.

6. What does it mean for the world's biggest economy?

While U.S. oil producers try to take advantage of any sales boost from customers moving away from Iran, the broader U.S. economy won't necessarily see benefits with oil price tags as high as $100 a barrel.

It would be a squeeze on American consumers that are the backbone of still-steady economic growth . Prices at the gas pump already have risen more than 7 percent this month to $2.89 a gallon, which could weigh on retail sales that jumped in March by the most since 2017.

And if things go awry in global oil markets, there's risk that political blame shifts back to the U.S. for the sanctions, which could mean backlash via investment or other channels that threatens economic stability.

7. Will it lead to higher inflation around the world?

Because energy features prominently in consumer price gauges, policy makers look to core indexes that remove volatile components. If the run-up in prices proves to be substantial, and sustained, those costs will filter through to transportation and utilities.

8. What does it mean for central banks?

Led by the Federal Reserve, central banks around the world have taken a dovish tilt as the absence of inflation allows policy makers to shift their focus to slowing growth. That's unlikely to quickly change. The International Monetary Fund this month lowered its global growth forecast and said the world is in a "delicate moment."

-- With assistance by Sheela Tobben

[Apr 29, 2019] 'Hard to imagine' how global market will react when US waivers on Iran oil expire Putin

Notable quotes:
"... The waivers expire in May, meaning that those countries could potentially face US sanctions beyond that deadline. China and Turkey, on their part, have strongly condemned the American restrictions, arguing the US is not in a position to intervene in their trade ties with Iran. ..."
"... We don't have any information from our Saudi partners or other OPEC members that they are ready to pull out from the deal. ..."
"... He assured that Moscow is "fulfilling its commitments" to the production cuts agreed by OPEC and several non-OPEC producers in December. Saudi Arabia is also "unlikely" to withdraw, being the driving force behind the wider coalition. ..."
Apr 29, 2019 | www.rt.com

It's hard to foresee how US efforts to bring Iranian oil exports to zero will play out in future, Vladimir Putin admitted, saying OPEC members should live up to their obligation to keep output as low as possible if it comes true. Russia has an agreement with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut their output by 1.2 million barrels per day, which remains in effect until July of this year, Putin said. But the US waivers – which gave a host of countries an exemption from the existing anti-Iran sanctions – expire much earlier, he reminded.

I don't imagine how the global energy market will react to that.

In November, the US re-imposed sanctions on Iran's energy, shipbuilding and banking sectors in a bid to deprive Tehran of its main sources of revenue. But it simultaneously issued waivers to China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey – the main importers of Iranian crude – so that they can find alternative vendors of oil.

The waivers expire in May, meaning that those countries could potentially face US sanctions beyond that deadline. China and Turkey, on their part, have strongly condemned the American restrictions, arguing the US is not in a position to intervene in their trade ties with Iran.

Commenting on the issue, Putin said he hopes the market will eventually avoid the deficit of Iranian oil and that Iran will still be able to sell it. The comment came on the heels of conflicting reports that Donald Trump persuaded Riyadh to ramp up oil output this lowering fuel costs; these reports were denounced by OPEC officials.

Nevertheless, there is "no evidence" that any country is going to withdraw from the OPEC+ agreement to drop oil outputs, Putin said.

We don't have any information from our Saudi partners or other OPEC members that they are ready to pull out from the deal.

He assured that Moscow is "fulfilling its commitments" to the production cuts agreed by OPEC and several non-OPEC producers in December. Saudi Arabia is also "unlikely" to withdraw, being the driving force behind the wider coalition.

See also:

[Apr 28, 2019] US Sanctions Got India to Ditch Iran, Will Washington Get It to Ditch Russia Too - Global ResearchGlobal Research - Centre for by Andrew Korybko

So oil prices with rise which threaten Trump bid in 2020. Interesting times.
Notable quotes:
"... As is now known, however, appearances can be very misleading, and in actuality the same country that was vowing to "defy" the US actually ended up quietly implementing its new patron's will. ..."
Apr 24, 2019 | www.globalresearch.ca

The announcement by India's Oil Minister that his country will replace US-sanctioned Iranian oil imports with those from "major oil-producing countries" despite the dramatic Bollywood show that New Delhi has made up until this point out of "defying" US sanctions makes one seriously wonder whether India's preparing to ditch Russia next if the US imposes CAATSA sanctions against it over the S-400s.

Shattering The "Indian Illusion"

The " Indian Illusion " has been shattered after India's Oil Minister tweeted that his country will replace US-sanctioned Iranian oil imports with those from "major oil-producing countries" such as the Islamic Republic's hated GCC foes of Saudi Arabia and the UAE that America said will step up their exports in order to stabilize global prices after Washington announced that it won't renew its anti-Iranian oil sanction waivers. New Delhi made a dramatic Bollywood-like show over the past year out of "defying" US sanctions, with External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj announcing last May that India will only obey UNSC sanctions and not those unilaterally imposed by the US in contravention of international law.

The Oil Minister himself said back in October before the waivers were issued that India will continue buying Iranian oil in spite of the US sanctions, later crediting Prime Minister Modi a month later when the US eventually granted it the waiver. Adding "credibility" to the illusion that India's perception managers were masterfully creating, it was then reported that the country will use rupees instead of dollars when trading with Iran, a bold move that even fooled an RT columnist who headlined his op-ed on this development as a " response to US global bullying ".

As is now known, however, appearances can be very misleading, and in actuality the same country that was vowing to "defy" the US actually ended up quietly implementing its new patron's will.

[Apr 28, 2019] Rand think tank study suggest that the USA should flood the world with oil in order to overextend and unbalance Russia

Some pretty strange ideas if we are taking about oil. What they are smiling at RAND?
Notable quotes:
"... That evaluation is quite strange. The U.S. government does not produce oil. Private companies do so but only if they can make a profit. Increasing production beyond the global demand will decrease the oil price for all producers. All recent new U.S. production comes from shale oil. Optimistic estimates put the break even point for good shale oil fields at around $50 per barrel. Few fields can produce at lower costs. Most shale oil fields have a higher break even point. There is also a danger in suppressing oil prices. Many oil producing countries have U.S. friendly regimes. They need high oil prices to survive. Ruining them will not come cheap for the U.S. in geopolitical terms. ..."
"... of the 8 most promising suggestions - 6 of them are military... it seems to me these think tanks are great pr tools for the military industrial complex... who cares if the usa continues to move into 3rd world status as a nation, so long as more money for weapons can be acquired?? that is what these think tanks - rand and etc seem to want to foist on the public... it is all so very sad.. ..."
"... No, I think most US weapons procurement gives weapons that don't work as advertised, and wouldn't win wars anyway. I think it's one reason why the US military is largely only capable of spoiler wars, not actually conquering any place. (The other is the general unreliability of mercenary forces, which the US army basically is, however much they try to cultivate a militant Christian ethos.) ..."
"... I also do not believe spoiler wars help the country as a whole (as opposed to some of the owners) I think pretty much all a burden, immoral to boot and should be massively reduced. ..."
"... Even if you’re sure those companies are entirely private, if you print the current global reserve currency, can you not give “free” money to frackers and thereby make them more competitive than global peers? Sure, that’s flooding the market with an illegal subsidy. But, who can conduct proper accounting in opaque markets? ..."
Apr 28, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org
According to RAND the best option to overextend and unbalance is to produce more oil:
Expanding U.S. energy production would stress Russia's economy, potentially constraining its government budget and, by extension, its defense spending. By adopting policies that expand world supply and depress global prices, the United States can limit Russian revenue. Doing so entails little cost or risk, produces second-order benefits for the U.S. economy, and does not need multilateral endorsement.

That evaluation is quite strange. The U.S. government does not produce oil. Private companies do so but only if they can make a profit. Increasing production beyond the global demand will decrease the oil price for all producers. All recent new U.S. production comes from shale oil. Optimistic estimates put the break even point for good shale oil fields at around $50 per barrel. Few fields can produce at lower costs. Most shale oil fields have a higher break even point. There is also a danger in suppressing oil prices. Many oil producing countries have U.S. friendly regimes. They need high oil prices to survive. Ruining them will not come cheap for the U.S. in geopolitical terms.

The second best option says RAND is to increase sanctions of Russia. This also doesn't make much sense. Russia can produce everything it needs and it has free access to the world's largest markets, China and India.

The best military options listed by RAND are all useless. All the new weapon systems Russia has revealed over the last two years are way more capable than anything the U.S. is able to field. If the U.S., as RAND advocates, invest more in certain fields, it will only be to catch up. That does not impose any new costs on Russia.

... ... ...

In all I find it a bit impertinent to publicly argue for "overextending and unbalancing Russia". Where is the need to do such?

The study demonstrates again that strategic analysis by U.S. think tanks is woefully shallow-minded. The "experts" writing these have no deep understanding of Russia, or even of the economic-political complexity of the real world.

Four of the eight best options the RAND study found start with the words "Invest more in ...". It is a sign that the foremost motive its writers had in mind is to grab more taxpayer money. Fine. Give it to them already. Overextending and unbalancing the U.S. by more abstruse expenditure for weapon systems that do not work will neither hurt me nor Russia.

james | Apr 27, 2019 2:34:51 PM | 2

thanks b.. of the 8 most promising suggestions - 6 of them are military... it seems to me these think tanks are great pr tools for the military industrial complex... who cares if the usa continues to move into 3rd world status as a nation, so long as more money for weapons can be acquired?? that is what these think tanks - rand and etc seem to want to foist on the public... it is all so very sad..

@1 steven.. well, as i read you, you are essentially supporting a continuation of the usa pouring endless money into the military then, regardless the accuracy of the accounts on the new Russian weapons.. do i have that right?

psychohistorian | Apr 27, 2019 2:42:19 PM | 3

@ b who wrote

"In all I find it a bit impertinent to publicly argue for "overextending and unbalancing Russia". Where is the need to do such?"

Russia is not beholden to the God of Mammon/global private finance world and the need to do such is to affect that position

The West is ruled by those that own private finance and all major conflict is predicated on the forceful, if necessary, maintenance of that control.

Steven T Johnson | Apr 27, 2019 2:47:15 PM | 4

james@2

No, I think most US weapons procurement gives weapons that don't work as advertised, and wouldn't win wars anyway. I think it's one reason why the US military is largely only capable of spoiler wars, not actually conquering any place. (The other is the general unreliability of mercenary forces, which the US army basically is, however much they try to cultivate a militant Christian ethos.)

However, since I also do not believe spoiler wars help the country as a whole (as opposed to some of the owners) I think pretty much all a burden, immoral to boot and should be massively reduced.

... ... ...

oglalla | Apr 27, 2019 5:34:07 PM | 18

>> The U.S. government does not produce oil. Private companies do so but only if they can make a profit. Increasing production beyond the global demand will decrease the oil price for all producers.

Even if you’re sure those companies are entirely private, if you print the current global reserve currency, can you not give “free” money to frackers and thereby make them more competitive than global peers? Sure, that’s flooding the market with an illegal subsidy. But, who can conduct proper accounting in opaque markets?

Of course, the money is not “free”. Depreciating the currency, an inflation tax, shows up in lower-quality goods (like frankenfood— we cannot afford healthy food any more) and higher prices in everything. But, again, who’s counting? The BLS and the media? Yep.

[Apr 28, 2019] Trump's Latest Iran Sanctions Show an Unraveling of US Foreign Policy

Apr 28, 2019 | therealnews.com

April 22, 2019

Col. Lawrence Wilkerson says unilateral sanctions against Iran are illegal, and show the ascendancy of John Bolton; they intensify tension with China and threaten our international position

https://www.youtube.com/embed/i0KTa2uSRro?rel=0&showinfo=0&enablejsapi=1

https://widget.spreaker.com/player?episode_id=17723879&theme=light&playlist=false&playlist-continuous=false&autoplay=false&live-autoplay=false&chapters-image=false&episode_image_position=right&hide-logo=true&hide-likes=true&hide-comments=true&hide-sharing=true&hide-download=false

The Trump administration is ramping up its campaign against Iran by announcing it will end waivers allowing eight countries to continue importing Iranian oil -- part of an attempt to drop Iranian oil exports to zero. This follows the Trump administration's categorization of part of Iran's army, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, as a terrorist organization, and unilaterally withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal.

"This administration, for all intents and purposes in my view, is working against the interests of the United States," Colonel Larry Wilkerson told The Real News Network's Marc Steiner. China and Turkey have already said they will not abide by the U.S. ending of the waivers, but India will possibly follow along, all of which could lead to a more profound trade war.

The decision also represents the influence of National Security Advisor John Bolton, who was in favor of these sanctions, while Secretary of State Mike Pompeo wanted the waivers to continue.

Steiner noted that the sanctions violate international law and asked whether this brings the U.S. closer to war with Iran, or if the sanctions are "in lieu of war." Wilkerson explained that John Bolton wants war even if Trump does not, and that regardless, these oil sanctions are "economic warfare" -- an especially risky international gamble.

"We're getting away with it [only] because we are the most powerful country in the world, economically, financially, and militarily," Wilkerson said. "That's not always going to be the case."

Wilkerson suspects that countries such as China, Russia, or India will eventually respond to U.S. sanctions with their own, or make an end-run around them.

"I think we're going to see other nations objecting in ways we can't really calculate right now," Wilkerson said. "And by that I mean we're going to have everything from the Chinese attempting to use other means of exchange than the dollar to the Chinese and the Russians perhaps working together to build an entirely separate and functional financial network that will eventually supplant that of the United States."

He told Steiner that it appears as though the U.S. is "suicidal," lacking any interest in diplomacy, and continuing to distance itself from its allies.

"We just lost badly in Syria, and we lost to a triumvirate of Syria under Bashar al-Assad, Russia, and Iran. Look at what happened, what has happened in Iraq. We lost a lot of men and women there. We shed blood and treasure there for an utterly ill-conceived invasion, but nonetheless we did. Now Iraq is more or less under the influence of Iran. The only ally we have in the region that we can count on at any time is an authoritarian, brutal state under a boy king who's losing one war on one flank and alienated Qatar on the other," Wilkerson said. "It's all falling apart. We're losing everywhere I look in the world, losing badly to that man in Moscow who picks up the pieces and you know, goes to Cuba when Marco Rubio decides he doesn't like Cuba, goes to Venezuela when we decide we might have an option for Venezuela that will include military force. Putin is the strategist in the world right now picking up on every piece we drop -- and we're dropping too many." Story Transcript MARC STEINER Welcome to The Real News Network. I'm Marc Steiner. Great to have you all with us. Trump is stepping up his campaign against Iran once again, announcing that he will end waivers that allowed eight countries to continue importing Iranian oil. He wants to drive Iranian oil exports to zero. All this comes on the heels of officially labeling the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization and of course, forcing the U.S. to unilaterally pull out of the Iran Nuclear Deal. Well what course are we on? Are we inching toward a war with Iran? Are these intensified sanctions just an alternative to all-out war? How could the U.S. just unilaterally impose international sanctions? Doesn't that violate international law? Can he do it because the U.S. has a vital role in the international system of finance? Both Turkey and China have already announced they will not abide by Trump's unilateral declaration of sanctions. Does this intensify our trade war with China? We'll see. Joining us here at The Real News once again is Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, who served as Chief-of-staff to U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, retired from U.S. Army, and is now Distinguished Adjunct Professor at the College of William and Mary where he teaches U.S. National Security. I welcome and good to have you back with us here on The Real News.

COL. LAWRENCE WILKERSON Good to be back again.

MARC STEINER So before we start, let's run this short piece by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and what he had to say about the intensifying of sanctions.

MIKE POMPEO Today I am announcing that we will no longer grant any exemptions. We're going to zero, going to zero across the board. We will continue to enforce sanctions and monitor compliance. Any nation or entity interacting with Iran should due it's diligence and err on the side of caution. The risks are simply not going to be worth the benefits. We've made our demands very clear to the Ayatollah and his cronies: end your pursuit of nuclear weapons, stop testing and proliferating ballistic missiles, stop sponsoring and committing terrorism, halt the arbitrary detention of U.S. citizens. Our pressure is aimed at fulfilling these demands and others and I will continue to accelerate until Iran is willing to address them at the negotiating table.

MARC STEINER So what's your instant analysis of what we've just seen here, what we're seeing, Larry?

COL. LAWRENCE WILKERSON First, the dispute within the administration -- much ballyhooed between Bolton and Pompeo and Brian Hook, Pompeo's main man on Iran -- is apparently over and Bolton won. Pompeo and Brian Hook were not in favor of going all the way on oil sanctions. They were in favor of continuing the waivers for countries like China and India, and so forth. So that means Bolton's won. That's an ominous victory in my mind. More ominous was Bolton and Pompeo and Pompeo in particular's testimony to the Congress about the "connections between al-Qaeda and Iran." I've been there done that. I remember when George Tenet very forcefully and powerfully in late January-early February of 2003, pointed out to Colin Powell who had just said, toss that stuff out of my presentation to the United Nations. It stinks. That stuff being, connections between al-Qaeda and Baghdad over 9/11. Pompeo essentially said to Rand Paul in questioning him in the Senate and elsewhere, that there were connections between al-Qaeda and Iran, and implied that those connections gave the president the right to go to war with Iran without having to go to the Congress of the United States. In other words, the original A.U.M.F. authorization for the use of military force issued after 9/11, pertained some seventeen to eighteen years later to Iran.

MARC STEINER And that's where you skin yourself. Most people who know this arena, know that area, the contradiction of saying Iran and al-Qaeda are one or are working with one another, just on its face doesn't make any sense.

COL. LAWRENCE WILKERSON Nonsense just as it was with Saddam Hussein. We all know now, but it was a very powerful thing for Colin Powell to tell the U.N. Security Council and even more powerful for him to tell the American people that. And that's what Trump and Bolton and Pompeo now are trying to duplicate: another specious case for war.

MARC STEINER So do you think -- speaking of that -- are we inching our way towards war with Iran, or do you think what we're seeing, these sanctions, are actually in lieu of war? What do you think the dynamic is here?

COL. LAWRENCE WILKERSON I don't think Trump wants war, but I know John Bolton does. So I have to imagine that there is going to be a come to Jesus meeting or some such resolution with Donald Trump if Bolton persists in wanting to use military force and Donald Trump doesn't. On the side of all of this, is Trump's new partner in crime, Bibi Netanyahu. We don't know what Bibi promised Donald Trump when Donald Trump weighed in on Bibi's election. I'm told by people who know these sorts of things in Israel, that had Trump not weighed in heavily for Bibi, that he might not have won, that it might have been a lot closer that it was, and it was pretty close anyway. So I don't know what Bibi promised Trump in return. It might be that he conducts whatever military operation is conducted with respect to Iran. Anything's possible here with these two characters.

MARC STEINER But the whole Bibi question is something we've spent a half-an-hour, hours just talking about what that relationship is, and who's driving whose foreign policy when it comes to Iran especially.

COL. LAWRENCE WILKERSON Yes. Gideon Levy in Haaretz was right when he said U.S.-Middle East policy is not made in Washington. It's made, he said Tel Aviv, but now he would say Jerusalem.

MARC STEINER So let me ask you another question. How can the United States just unilaterally impose international sanctions? I thought that's something the Security Council would have to do and people are writing this as a violation of international law. So from your perch when you were the Secretary of State and now, how does that play into all this?

COL. LAWRENCE WILKERSON I think it plays very dangerously. We are becoming -- through our manipulation of the Swiss system and other means in the world for financial transactions -- a pariah in the world. Very much despised and even hated in the world and increasingly, by our own friends and allies like Germany, France, Britain, and so forth. This manipulation of this system that we largely set up for tracking terrorist monies and so forth, has been turned into a very sophisticated weapon. It's economic warfare in anybody's book and the only reason we're getting away from it, you just hinted at. We're getting away with it because we are the most powerful country in the world -- economically, financially, and militarily. That's not always going to be the case and I suspect there are going to people like China, like Russia, like India, like other countries in the world, finally getting tired of this and start reciprocating and building other systems to go around ours.

MARC STEINER Stepping up the sanctions against Iran and saying nobody can buy any oil from Iran at all, zeroing them out -- China and Turkey have already said we're not abiding by this. You can't tell us how to run our economy and what we're doing. India is caught between a rock and a hard place. They don't want to go with this. Ten percent of their crude oil comes from Iran, but they're in a tough bind given who finances them as well. So how is this going to play out? This can lead to greater trade wars between China and the U.S. How do you see this all tumbling out, both in terms of Iran and our relationship with those other nations?

COL. LAWRENCE WILKERSON I think we're going to see other nations objecting in ways that we can't really calculate right now. By that I mean, we're going to have everything from the Chinese attempting to use other means of exchange than the dollar, to the Chinese and the Russians perhaps working together to build an entirely separate and functional financial network that will eventually supplant that of the United States. So this has enormous potential for backfiring, just like all the enemies we are creating in the world right now and the allies that we're distancing ourselves from. These are not positive moves by the United States. If I were on Mars looking down at the United States right now, and I were some wise Martian statesmen, and I was trying to figure out what the United States -- the current hegemon of the world -- was trying to do, I would think we were trying to commit suicide. It's as if we do not have any means of doing anything diplomatically or otherwise, that doesn't rebound to our discredit. Look at what's happened. We just lost badly in Syria and we lost to a triumvirate of Syria under Bashar al-Assad, Russia, and Iran. Look at what has happened in Iraq. We lost a lot of men and women there. We shed blood and treasure there for an utterly ill-conceived invasion, but nonetheless we did. Now Iraq is more or less under the influence of Iran. The only ally we have in the region that we can count on at any time is an authoritarian, brutal state under a boy-king who's losing one war on one flank, and alienated Qatar on the other. Our latest NATO in the Middle East just lost its most formidable partner, Egypt. It's all falling apart. We're losing everywhere I look in the world and losing badly to that man in Moscow who picks up the pieces and goes to Cuba when Marco Rubio decides he doesn't like Cuba. He goes to Venezuela when we decide we might have an option for Venezuela that would include military force. Putin is the strategist in the world right now, picking up on every piece we drop, and we're dropping too many.

MARC STEINER So very quickly here before we run out of time, one quick question. If you were sitting in the halls of power at this moment, and your job is Chief-of-staff or the Secretary of State, I'm curious what you would be saying to a president that said we have to do this. What would you say is the alternative? What would you be saying at this moment?

COL. LAWRENCE WILKERSON Which one do you want to pick? [laughter] Kim Jong-un is going to fire a ballistic missile or he's going to do a nuclear test or both sometime around Christmas.

MARC STEINER Right.

COL. LAWRENCE WILKERSON This administration for all intents and purposes, in my view, is working against the interests of the United States. So the first thing I would do is sit down and say, Mr. President, please before I walk out of here and go back to Foggy Bottom and retire from my position because you are going to fire me, I want to know what you think the national interests of the United States are. You said you were going to "make America great again." You are destroying America. You said you were going to bring jobs back. You have only brought the jobs back that the last three years of the Obama administration generated, because no president ever generates them instantly. So you haven't done anything yet that looks like it's in the interest of the United States and you've done a whole load of things that are clearly not in our interest, not the least of which is to drive our allies away and make many enemies whom you said all options are on the table confronting. Please, Mr. President. Tell me what you think our interests are.

MARC STEINER And with that, I want to say thank you once again. Colonel Larry Wilkerson, always a pleasure to have you here at The Real News. And thanks so much for your thoughts and wisdom.

COL. LAWRENCE WILKERSON Thank you.

MARC STEINER And I'm Marc Steiner here for The Real News Network. Thank you all for joining us. Take care.

[Apr 27, 2019] Trump Drops The Other Iran Oil Shoe

Notable quotes:
"... Bolton says that this is all designed to make Iran be a "normal country," as if Saudi Arabia were such. ..."
Apr 27, 2019 | angrybearblog.com

Indeed, this looks like a potentially much more dangerous situation. If these major nations obey Trump (I suspect some will not), Iran might be tempted to take more aggressive action, with blocking the Straits of Hormuz among the more serious. This would really spike the price of oil, and quite possibly trigger a war. This may be what the Trump people want, with their real policy apparently being "regime change." However, so far the only regime change seems to be rising influence of hardliners, with a new hardline commander for the now sanctioned Revolutionary Guards being appointed. He has been talking about missiles getting fired on Israel from Lebanon by Hezbollah. Is this what Netanyahu really wants?

I think those who think the Iranian regime will easily be overthrown are more deluded than those who advocated invading Iraq (and some of them are the same people, see John Bolton especially). This has the potential of really seriously distracting people from the Mueller Report, but not at all in a good way.

... ... ...

Another Addendum: In WaPo this morning they report that the other three nations are Greece, Italy, and Taiwan, and that they have already stopped buying Iranian oil under US pressure. Also, apparently Japan has been stockpiling oil from there and has stopped further purchases already in anticipation of just this move by the US. OTOH, both China and Turkey are talking about not obeying the US order. No word out of either India or South Korea so far.

Bolton says that this is all designed to make Iran be a "normal country," as if Saudi Arabia were such. As it is, indeed the hawkish new leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards has spoken publicly of possibly blocking the Straits of Hormuz, as I suggested they may well be contemplating.

[Apr 27, 2019] Fundamental news moving paper oil market: Trump said something

Apr 27, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Eulenspiegel x Ignored says: 04/26/2019 at 9:52 am

The oil price is falling hard today.

Is there any news, Trump giving waivers or some new source of oil available?

Ok, found it.
Fundamental news: Trump said something:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-26/oil-tumbles-after-trump-says-he-called-opec-gas-prices-are-coming-down

So we get 40$ oil soon ;).

Energy News x Ignored says: 04/26/2019 at 10:03 am
It seems President Trump called on OPEC to bring down oil prices
Reuters headline https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5FZA8VW4AA6QNI.png
GuyM x Ignored says: 04/26/2019 at 11:52 am
I can't imagine that moron influencing much.
ProPoly x Ignored says: 04/26/2019 at 3:47 pm
It can manipulate short term trading because that's driven by headline reading computers and other algos. Anything longer than that, talking price doesn't work if there's a serious supply or demand issue. It's a near-zero elasticity industrial commodity.
Ron Patterson x Ignored says: 04/26/2019 at 12:03 pm
He called OPEC? Just whom at OPEC did he speak with? OPEC is a group of oil exporting nations. They meet once every six months or so to decide what they will do, if anything.
No one can just call OPEC and OPEC will decide to produce more oil. They have to meet, talk it over, and decide what to do.
Iron Mike x Ignored says: 04/26/2019 at 12:35 pm
Trump probably just called his employer .AIPAC.

[Apr 27, 2019] Damn, and all along I thought Trump got the credit. Just pay attention to how fast the ship is sinking.

Apr 27, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Ron Patterson x Ignored says: 04/26/2019 at 8:05 pm

Oil price recedes after 'knee-jerk' reaction to Russian suspensions

The price of oil slipped on Friday, more than offsetting Thursday's gains on a "knee-jerk" reaction to the suspension of some Russian exports on quality concerns.

Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, on Thursday rose above $75 a barrel for the first time in six months as Germany and Poland halted imports from Russia because of contamination in the Druzhba pipeline.

But analysts said the market had over reacted and Brent pared its gains later in the day, with the slip in price continuing into Friday as the marker fell 1.3 per cent to $73.39.

"Fears of a supply shock were greatly exaggerated," said Stephen Brennock, an analyst at PVM. "After all, refineries usually hold ample crude stockpiles to guard against such disruptions. Little wonder then that the initial knee-jerk price reaction petered out."

Damn, and all along I thought Trump got the credit. :-)

GuyM x Ignored says: 04/26/2019 at 8:53 pm
Well, I wouldn't classify the loss of one million barrels a day as exactly a knee jerk reaction. We are supposed to have a 1.3 million barrel a day increase in demand. Ok, that's 2.3 more we need. Oops, US can't supply that, Canada is down, and Brazil and Argentina will be essentially flat. Oh, oh, we need to add another 600k loss from Venezuela, and probably another million from Iran, making about 3.9 million more needed. Other depletion .3 to .6 million? Spare capacity from OPEC is 3 million? Or, that's the fairy tale. Yeah, it's ok to dream.

Just pay attention to how fast the ship is sinking.

[Apr 25, 2019] Paper oil and QE

Apr 25, 2019 | off-guardian.org

BigB says Apr, 24, 2019

Overproduction of capital – seeking a high, no risk return – is a certainty. Especially with continuing QE. There is no end game now. That capital will find its way into derivative casino capital gambling – of which only 2% ends up as a commodity changing hands. The rest is hidden toxic exposure making the banking system untenable. Other outlets include mergers and acquisitions (toward oligopolies of power); leveraged buyouts; and asset stripping destroying any last real productive capacity for short term 'Global Death Protocol' (GDP returns – one of the sensible points Monbiot made it is no substitute Human Development Index). Pension fund raiding: there is thought to be a $30 tn black hole already – now they want to release $90tn 'locked assets' without even the slightest chance of ever getting an ROI. Overproduced capital will also find its way in to the tech bubble – funding our AI-redundancy. Oil-rent, commodity-rent, bio-pharma-rent, agi-rent, and tech-rent seems to be a major part of the capitalist death throes. But you cannot rent a host humanity by making them redundant. Now they also want to rent nature back to us. Add in spiralling exponential debt; EROI and a slow-burn falling net-energy crisis; and authoritarian states merging with bureaucratised corporate capital down to the local infrastructure level its humanity versus corporate state insanity.

And the bleated hope of sheep is that a nativist leader – like Jeremy Corbyn – will come along and save us. Reality is going to have to hit the majoritarian massif really hard in the face to wake people up to the systemic fragility of globalised capitalism. Unfortunately, its internecine internal contradictions may prove fatal before that. My hope is that something better may rise from the ashes: a humanist society contra all the fatal contradictions of relentless coercive capital accumulation. Given the level of political and ecological acumen we encounter on a daily basis I'm presently not too optimistic. But that can change, rapidly. Consciousness is not timebound or limited by causality (see below). Now! would be a good time for a consciousness evolutionary explosion a Big Bang of a new reality. Depending on what the Big Bang of the old leaves intact! There will be a solution. It might not be optimal though. I presently can't see any smooth transition taking place. Carpe deum and enjoy the ride over the ever quickening rapids of the net energy falls!

[Apr 25, 2019] Pepe's item mentions the $2.5 Quadrillion of derivatives "would start a chain reaction of destruction" in response to rapid spikes in oil price

Apr 25, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

karlof1 , Apr 24, 2019 1:55:28 PM | link

Pepe's item mentions the $2.5 Quadrillion of derivatives "would start a chain reaction of destruction" in response to rapid spikes in oil price that per previous discussions would rebound asymmetrically onto Outlaw US Empire and generate a massive crisis far worse than soaring gasoline prices as that would constitute a direct hit on Deep State interests and it would take casualties for the first time.

Oh, 100K Tons of "diplomacy" boast/threat made by the Empire's ambassador to Russia:

"Diplomatic communication and dialogue coupled with the strong defence these ships provide demonstrate to Russia that if it truly seeks better relations with the United States, it must cease its destabilising activities around the world."

Two Imperial carrier groups are now in the Med offering themselves as juicy targets. Huntsman's bluff and buster is yet another example of Pompeo's idiocy. I thought the RT headline "Mask off? US ambassador to Russia says US practices diplomacy with aircraft carriers" more appropriate for its item about Huntsman's hubris.

A check of San Francisco gas prices via GasBuddy shows a very broad range from $3.99-4.59/gal, while here in Oregon it's @3.25; and at Refinery Central--Houston--it's not over $3/gal yet. So, there's a ways to go before the pain threshold is reached nationally.

Today marks day 2 for the 8th annual Moscow Conference on International Security whose "main topic" this year focuses on Middle East Issues , which will certainly include the undeclared hybrid war between Iran and the Outlaw US Empire. Hopefully we will get some reporting on the discussions taking place there. Shoigu spoke yesterday, while Lavrov speaks today.


karlof1 , Apr 24, 2019 2:29:03 PM | link

In a related development, the Parliamentary Baghdad Summit had its one day and reportedly didn't accomplish much aside from getting former adversaries together in the same room. I'm hopeful of finding a more detailed report. That most of the GCC wasn't invited seems to be due to the Summit's theme being Iraqi neighbors. One might have expected either Iran or Saudi to not send a representative given past/current enmity, but both attended and didn't attack each other. That Saudi and UAE sent flood relief aid to Iran is a very good sign that the Umma is finally reforming to deal with its primary enemies--Zionistan and the Outlaw US Empire. Of course, in any armed conflict between Iran and the Empire, being on better terms with GCC and Saudi will be important--there'll be no coalition of the bullied and bribed Arab NATO.

What I'm seeing is Iran gaining more regional allies at the expense of the Outlaw US Empire. The just concluded visit of Pakistan PM Khan to Iran is a major case in point as is the détente between Iran and Qatar. And continued flack targeting Saudi within the US Congress is certainly affecting King Salman's viewpoints. Blowback from previous Imperial hubris initiated by Bolton and Pompeo's CIA predecessors is working against their policy goals. IMO, the "waiver holders" are unlikely to waver as there're no market substitutes for Iranian oil. If they get targeted too, then an escalation in blowback will occur as every Outlaw US Empire move is illegal and immoral.

Variance Doc , Apr 24, 2019 4:42:24 PM | link
@ karlof1 | Apr 24, 2019 2:29:03 PM | 48

Most of the of the amateurs reporting "derivative amounts" are stated in notional values, which is wrong (Love Pepe's work, but he is not a financial economist.) It's the offset value (not including counter-party amounts) that matter and it's far less than notional. So, no end of the world hysteria needed.

Also, it's marginal price of gas relative to a person's balance sheet that matters. I think that's what b is referring to. In english, most people have a fixed monthly income and gas is a big chunk of expenses (for those who actually work). A gas price increase of $0.25 or more means that they have to reduce expenses somewhere else (unlikely since 'mericans love their lifestyles) or go further into debt, which means they pull-forward future consumption. That's what partly causes the slowing of economic future activity. That is ONE reason this extended (FED) monetary policy is so destructive to the real economy.

[Apr 24, 2019] Is case of US Iran sanctions China has a very difficult dilemma

Apr 24, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

Schmoe , Apr 24, 2019 7:20:33 PM | link

China has quite a dilemna:

a) violate sanctions and risk severe penalties; or

b) go along with sanctions but if Iran pulls the pin on the world economy, China could very well completely crash economically, to the point that I wonder if there could be a revolution. Also, everyone knows about China's Muslim issues, Iran could say "it would be shame if someone armed those tens of million of Muslims you have".

I don't envy their position.

karlof1 , Apr 24, 2019 7:21:01 PM | link

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif has conducted an interview with Reuters saying Trump didn't want war but could be "lured into one." As usual, Reuters doesn't just provide a transcript of the interview, only publishing what it wants to publish. We'll need to await the official Iranian transcript to note what else was said and what was reported out-of-context.
karlof1 , Apr 24, 2019 7:30:49 PM | link
Schmoe @69--

China will ignore the illegal Outlaw US Empire diktat and carry on as before. If it's challenged, it has the means to defend itself and will. The Empire is beholden to China not the other way-round.

[Apr 24, 2019] The big fish are China and India. Those are the major users of iranian oil, and neither of them is likely to desist

Apr 24, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

nervos belli , Apr 24, 2019 1:17:03 PM | link

@39
Nobody cares what Italy and Greece need. They are good little vassals and will do what told. Turkey is of course a bigger problem, but might just be mostly overlooked and ignored.

The big fish are China and India. Those are the major users of iranian oil, and neither of them is likely to desist. What will the US do with them? Not possiple to financially sanction China.

That's why I think there will be lots of talk, but no action against anyone still buying iranian oil. Especially since Venezuela is not resolved. Nobody, not even the US, intends to march into Venezuela to "liberate" any oil wells any time soon.
While Maduro might some day collapse under his camarilla's corruption and his own incompetence, it will take a long time, probably years. Especially the opposition against him is similary incompetent. My guess is, it will take longer than Trump will be in office.

[Apr 24, 2019] Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Advisor John Bolton have vowed to strangle Iran and cut off all oil exports.

Apr 24, 2019 | www.unz.com

Agent76 , says: April 23, 2019 at 10:26 pm GMT

Apr 23, 2019 Pompeo Finally Tells The Truth: 'We Lie, We Cheat, We Steal'

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Advisor John Bolton have vowed to strangle Iran and cut off all oil exports.

[Apr 24, 2019] As Oil Prices Rise on End of Iran Waivers, Trump Aide Vows Oil Prices Won't Rise

Kudlow always looks to me like cocaine infused idiot. Not a bad showman though.
Apr 24, 2019 | news.antiwar.com

One would think hindsight would be 20:20 on the US ending Iran oil waivers on Monday and the surging price of oil in the first 48 hours since that happened. The Trump Administration remains upbeat, however, and confident that what clearly just happened won't happen.

Trump economic adviser Larry Kudlow made comments Tuesday at the National Press Club, comments which again came two days after the announcement, and after two days of prices going up substantially, assuring that there would be no price increase.

"I don't see any palpable impact. The world is awash with oil," Kudlow told the audience. That clearly appears to have been the administration's rationale, with several officials emphasizing the excess oil on the market before this move was ultimately made.

Their math was a bit off though. Estimates of tens of thousands of additional barrels of oil supply being available were slammed headlong into a US move that aimed to stop Iran's roughly one million barrels of daily oil sales. This has already lead to a rush on the market, with nations trying to secure supply while they can, and at higher prices.

All of this was well predictable. Indeed, financial outlets had already predicted that the administration would have to keep the waivers program going specifically because they couldn't afford this increase in global prices. Instead, they deluded themselves into thinking it wouldn't happen, and when it did, continued to maintain that it didn't, or wouldn't.

[Apr 24, 2019] Trump: Stop buying Iranian oil or face sanctions

Apr 23, 2019 | www.youtube.com

Oil prices are on the rise after the United States announced a new crackdown on Iran's oil exports aiming to reduce them to zero.
Iran's threatening retaliation by blocking the Strait of Hormuz - the world's lifeline of oil from all Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq.
The move has


K kaye , 10 hours ago

Can we sanction food from Pompeo? Looks like his jacket about to burst open...

noshadova , 11 hours ago

Why would the whole world be afraid of USA ? Ans. Greed and lack of integrity by the leaders !

Randy Pederson , 4 hours ago

The US are the only ones that are currently bombing multiple countries at the same time with no declaration of war.

SA SHA , 11 hours ago

Economic Sanctions === Economic Terrorist Attack Recent terrorist attacks indicate that the United States is using extremist organizations to provoke religious wars. The aim is to split Eurasia and make troubles for Europe. The United States is very afraid of peace in Eurasia, because it will make the United States a third world country.

[Apr 24, 2019] Trump: Stop buying Iranian oil or face sanctions Inside Story

Apr 23, 2019 | www.youtube.com

Oil prices are on the rise after the United States announced a new crackdown on Iran's oil exports aiming to reduce them to zero.
Iran's threatening retaliation by blocking the Strait of Hormuz - the world's lifeline of oil from all Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq.
The move has

[Apr 23, 2019] Mapping The Countries With The Most Oil Reserves

Apr 23, 2019 | www.zerohedge.com

1969wasgood , 38 minutes ago link

What it really means. 42 more years, and it's gone. 1.531 trillion bbls divided by a no grow of 100 million bbls consumption a day, simple math. And we rant about finding another 50 billion bbls. That only takes the total of the recoverable oil to 1.581 trillion bbls.

Oil will leave us before we leave oil. We are heading for mass starvation. There are no electric fire engines, there are no electric ambulances, there are no electric farm machinery, there are no electric military machinery, there are no electric boats or ships or ferries, there are no electric airplanes, fighter jets, helicopters, there are 1.4 billion cars in the world of which 3 million are electric, if Tesla quadruples production it couldn't replace the gas and diesel powered vehicles in 1200 years, and the Chinese electrics are crap.

deFLorable hillbilly , 1 hour ago link

This map is complete BS. No one, especially some spy agency, knows how much of anything is underground.

The only known fact is current production. "Known Reserves" is a hopelessly politicized exercise in conjecture, primarily for the purpose of securitizing international loans at favorable rates.

Yen Cross , 1 hour ago link

These numbers are complete horse-****.

U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Proved Reserves, Year-end 2017

Proved reserves of crude oil in the United States increased 19.5% (6.4 billion barrels) to 39.2 billion barrels at Year-End 2017, setting a new U.S. record for crude oil proved reserves. The previous record was 39.0 billion barrels set in 1970.

USGS Announces Largest Oil And Gas Deposit Ever Assessed In U.S. : The Two-Way : NPR

The USGS says all 20 billion barrels of oil are "technically recoverable," meaning the oil could be brought to the surface "using currently available technology and industry practices."

Between the corrupt politicians, and oil execs. these morons can't even concoct a decent lie anymore.

Minamoto , 1 hour ago link

Those numbers are somewhat laughable... Venezuela's gigantic reserves require lots of processing to get the oil sands into proper crude.

In addition, Russia's total reserves are underestimated as most of Russia's territory has not been geologically explored.

bismillah , 1 hour ago link

Most oil reserve claims with OPEC countries are hugely exaggerated.

And reserve claims by others are faked higher than they really are, too.

[Apr 16, 2019] The incompetent, the corrupt, the treacherous -- not just walking free, but with reputations intact, fat bank balances, and flourishing careers. Now they re angling for war with Iran.

Highly recommended!
Apr 15, 2019 | www.theamericanconservative.com

Return of the Just April 14, 2019 at 10:46 am

You're right. I see people like Robert Kagan's opinions being respectfully asked on foreign affairs, John Bolton and Elliott Abrams being hired to direct our foreign policy.

The incompetent, the corrupt, the treacherous -- not just walking free, but with reputations intact, fat bank balances, and flourishing careers. Now they're angling for war with Iran.

It's preposterous and sickening. And it can't be allowed to stand, so you can't just stand off and say you're "wrecked". Keep fighting, as you're doing. I will fight it until I can't fight anymore.

Ken Zaretzke , says: April 14, 2019 at 3:38 pm
Fact-bedeviled JohnT: “McCain was a problem for this nation? Sweet Jesus! There quite simply is no rational adult on the planet who buys that nonsense.”

McCain had close ties to the military-industrial complex. He was a backer of post-Cold War NATO. He was a neoconservative darling. He never heard of a dictator that he didn’t want to depose with boots on the ground, with the possible exception of various Saudi dictators (the oil-weaponry-torture nexus). He promoted pseudo-accountability of government in campaign finance but blocked accountability for the Pentagon and State Department when he co-chaired the United States Senate Select Committee on POW/MIA Affairs with John Kerry.

And, perhaps partly because of the head trauma and/or emotional wounds he suffered at the hands of Chinese-backed Commies, it’s plausible to think he was regarded by the willy-nilly plotters of the deep state as a manipulable, and thus useful, conduit of domestic subversion via the bogus Steele dossier.

Unfortunately, the episode that most defines McCain’s life is the very last one–his being a pawn of M-16 in the the deep state’s years-long attempt to derail the presidency of Donald Trump.

Joe Dokes , says: April 14, 2019 at 11:55 pm
Measuring success means determining goals. The goals of most wars is to enrich the people in charge. So, by this metric, the war was a success. The rest of it is just props and propaganda.
Andrew Stergiou , says: April 15, 2019 at 5:11 am
“Pyrrhic Victory” look it up the Roman Empire Won but lost if the US is invaded and the government does not defend it I would like to start my own defense: But the knee jerk politics that stirs America’s cannon fodder citizens is a painful reminder of a history of jingoist lies where at times some left and right agree at least for a short moment before the rich and powerful push their weight to have their way.

If All politics is relative Right wingers are the the left of what? Nuclear destruction? or Slavery?

Peter Smith , says: April 15, 2019 at 5:13 am
My goodness! I am also a veteran, but of the Vietnam war, and my father was a career officer from 1939-1961 as a paratrooper first, and later as an intelligence officer. He argued vigorously against our Vietnam involvement, and was cashiered for his intellectual honesty. A combat veteran’s views are meaningless when the political winds are blowing.

Simply put, we have killed thousands of our kids in service of the colonial empires left to us by the British and the French after WWII. More practice at incompetent strategies and tactics does not make us more competent–it merely extends the blunders and pain; viz the French for two CENTURIES against the Britsh during the battles over Normandy while the Planagenet kings worked to hold their viking-won inheritance.

At least then, kings risked their own lives. Generals fight because the LIKE it…a lot. Prior failures are only practice to the, regardless of the cost in lives of the kids we tried to raise well, and who were slaughtered for no gain.

We don’t need the empire, and we certainly shouldn’t fight for the corrupt businessmen who have profited from the never-ending conflicts. Let’s spend those trillions at home, so long as we also police our government to keep both Democrat and Republican politicians from feathering their own nests. Term limits and prosecutions will help us, but only if we are vigilant. Wars distract our attention while corruption is rampant at home.

Fayez Abedaziz , says: April 12, 2019 at 12:25 am
Thanks, I appreciate this article.
I’ll make two points, my own opinion:
it’s the same story as Vietnam, the bull about how the politicians or anti-war demonstrators tied the military ‘hand,’ blah, blah.
Nonsense. Invading a nation and slaughtering people in their towns, houses…gee…what’s wrong with that, eh?
The average American has a primitive mind when it comes to such matters.
Second point I have, is that both Bushes, Clinton, Obama, Hillary and Trump should be dragged to a world court, given a fair trial and locked up for life with hard labor… oh, and Cheney too,for all those families, in half a dozen nations, especially the children overseas that suffered/died from these creeps.
And, the families of dead or maimed American troops should be apologized to and compensation paid by several million dollars to each.
The people I named above make me sick, because I have feelings and a conscience. Can you dig?
kingdomofgodflag.info , says: April 12, 2019 at 8:19 am
Though there is a worldly justification for killing to obtain or maintain freedoms, there is no Christian justification for it. Which suggests that Christians who die while doing it, die in vain.

America’s wars are prosecuted by a military that includes Christians. They seldom question the killing their country orders them to do, as though the will of the government is that of the will of God. Is that a safe assumption for them to make? German Christian soldiers made that assumption regarding their government in 1939. Who was there to tell them otherwise? The Church failed, including the chaplains. (The Southern Baptist Convention declared the invasion of Iraq a just war in 2003.) These wars need to be assessed by Just War criteria. Christian soldiers need to know when to exercise selective conscientious objection, for it is better to go to prison than to kill without God’s approval. If Just War theory is irrelevant, the default response is Christian Pacifism.

Mark Thomason , says: April 12, 2019 at 10:43 am
“has gone un-investigated, unheard of, or unpunished.”

The one guy who did tell us has just been arrested for doing exactly that.

The arrest is cheered by those who fantasize about Russiagate, but it is expressly FOR telling us about these things.

Stephen J. , says: April 12, 2019 at 10:51 am
“Iraq Wrecked” a lot of innocent people. Millions are dead, cities reduced to rubble, homes and businesses destroyed and it was all a damned lie. And the perpetrators are Free.
Now there is sectarian violence too, where once there was a semblance of harmony amongst various denominations. See article link below.

“Are The Christians Slaughtered in The Middle East Victims of the Actions of Western War Criminals and Their Terrorist Supporting NATO ‘Allies’”?

http://graysinfo.blogspot.com/2017/04/are-christians-slaughtered-in-middle.html

the the , says: April 12, 2019 at 11:53 am
We are a globalist open borders and mass immigration nation. We stand for nothing. To serve in this nation’s military is very stupid. You aren’t defending anything. You are just a tool of globalism. Again, we don’t secure our borders. That’s a very big give away to what’s going on.
the the , says: April 12, 2019 at 11:57 am
If our nation’s military really was an American military concerned with our security we would have secured our border after 9/11, reduced all immigration, deported ALL muslims, and that’s it. Just secure the borders and expel Muslims! That’s all we needed to do.

Instead we killed so many people and imported many many more Muslims! And we call this compassion. Its insane.

Kouros , says: April 12, 2019 at 12:02 pm
Maybe if Talibans get back in power they will destroy the opium. You know, like they did when they were first in power…. It seems that wherever Americans get involved, drugs follow…
JohnT , says: April 12, 2019 at 2:03 pm
“Yet, we must not fail to comprehend its grave implications. Our toil, resources, and livelihood are all involved. So is the very structure of our society. In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex.” In Eisenhower’s televised farewell address January 17, 1961.
Rational thought would lead one to believe such words from a fellow with his credentials would have had a useful effect. But it didn’t. In point of fact, in the likes of Eric Prince and his supporters the notion of war as a profit center is quite literally a family affair.
Ken Zaretzke , says: April 12, 2019 at 2:10 pm
The military-industrial complex couldn’t accomplish this all by its lonesome self. The deep state was doing its thing. The two things overlap but aren’t the same. The deep state is not only or mainly about business profits, but about power. Power in the world means empire, which requires a military-industrial complex but is not reducible to it.

We now have a rare opportunity to unveil the workings of the deep state, but it will require a special counsel, and a lengthy written report, on the doings in the 2016 election of the FBI (Comey, Strzok, et. al.), and collaterally the CIA and DIA (Brennan and Clapper). Also the British government (M-16), John McCain, and maybe Bush and Obama judges on the FISA courts.

[Apr 15, 2019] Sour crude became more expensive, because it has higher energy content and more opetimal mix of various hydrocarbons for refining

Notable quotes:
"... As the supply-side structure has changed, the spread between sour and the historically far more expensive light, sweet crude has thinned and even flipped in some instances. ..."
"... "All refiners are looking for Urals or a Urals replacement," said a third trader in an international trading firm. "And we see that it won't be enough for everyone." ..."
Apr 12, 2019 | www.sott.net

Initially, Europeans gravitated to heavy, sour Venezuelan oil when sanctions on Iran hit in early November but then Washington also placed sanctions on the Latin American country in late January in a bid to oust President Nicolas Maduro.

Even though sanctions on Venezuelan crude will not come into effect until the end of April, the oil is effectively already untouchable as the U.S. State Department has exerted direct pressure on foreign companies to stop all dealings.

The two sets of sanctions combined have taken at least 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) out of the market, which is as much as what the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to cut.

The United States granted waivers on Iranian oil to six jurisdictions including three countries in the region - Italy, Greece and Turkey - but only Turkey was able to continue purchases. It remains unclear whether the current waivers will be extended in May.

THE SOUR RUSH

The situation is set to worsen as European refiners emerge from their springtime maintenance just as Middle Eastern Gulf sour crude producers increasingly favor Asia, where refining capacity in the near term is set to jump.

Saudi Arabia, a major sour crude producer, is shouldering the bulk of the OPEC and non-OPEC cuts. Between October 2018 and March this year, the kingdom slashed its exports to Europe by nearly half, Refinitiv Eikon data shows.

Iraq reduced its contracted volumes for European refiners in 2019 and increasingly sells its oil to the highest bidder via tender. Iraqi supplies to Europe fell by over 40 percent to 355,000 bpd in March compared with 615,000 bpd in October 2018, Refinitiv Eikon data showed.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan's 200,000-bpd STAR refinery in Turkey is slowly ramping up and will be a new competitor for dwindling sour oil.

Designed to run on sour grades such as Russian Urals and Iraqi Basra and Kirkuk, the refinery took 184,000 bpd of Urals in March, Refinitiv Eikon data showed.

"One expected STAR's launch to be a serious jolt for the market, but little did we know it would make the sour shortage this bad ... refiners are rushing for sours," a European trader said.

As the supply-side structure has changed, the spread between sour and the historically far more expensive light, sweet crude has thinned and even flipped in some instances.

In the Mediterranean, the light grade Kazakh CPC Blend trades at a discount to Urals and Kurdish crude, which used to be one of the region's cheapest oils.

The Urals price out of the Black Sea has also increasingly traded at a premium to Urals out of Baltic ports - previously a rare occurrence. The trend has prompted commodity price-reporting agency S&P Global Platts to start an industry consultation on changing how the Urals market is assessed.

"All refiners are looking for Urals or a Urals replacement," said a third trader in an international trading firm. "And we see that it won't be enough for everyone."

gdpetti ·

Regional development for the NWO command structure.... out with the OWO, in with the NWO.... thus the idiocy in the West as it outs itself in this prep work for global regime change... the American Empire simply isn't needed in it.... 'others' will take the reins soon enough.... but until then, let the outing continue...

It makes good theater of the absurd.... if we are going to go down in flames, best to enjoy the show, right?

RBHoughton

I believe its not just the departments of the US Government that inhibit purchases of Venezuelan crude or any other sanctioned goods. There is also the attitude of the banks that handle the transactions. They have been repeatedly hit with huge fines for facilitating trade to the point that they are reluctant to provide facilities to any country that Washington DC dislikes whether there are sanctions in place yet or not. This seems to be particularly true of European banks.

The effect on world trade is threatening to us all including USA. The sanctions policy cannot be maintained for long without hurting us as well. A second limitation on its usefulness is the efforts of the world's trading countries to agree alternative finance to the USD which is nearly complete now. Once that new financial system is floated, sanctions will have to end.

[Apr 12, 2019] It looks to me like the global economy may be in for at least one serious oil shock in the 2020s. Yet another titanic wave on the Peak Oil ocean.

Apr 12, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Graywulffe x Ignored says: 04/10/2019 at 5:55 pm

Nice summary, Ron. Brought to mind the old Oil Drum days. Thanks for taking the time to provide this information. Given the admittedly not high-confidence prognostications in Saudi/world oil production, it looks to me like the global economy may be in for at least one serious oil shock in the 2020s.

Yet another titanic wave on the Peak Oil ocean.

[Apr 12, 2019] It is very obvious that what Saudi will have difficulties to maintain the current level of production as giant fields will experience a more rapid decline in the future.

Notable quotes:
"... add to that the usual woes of increasing internal oil consumption (3 mbd and rising fast) and the need to try and build their way out of their demise (requiring more oil and money), and the usual predictions of the 'export land model' look very reasonable, and disastrous for the House of Saud. There will be a tapered end, but the potential for acute instability in production and the in political and social environments of the country within the next decade is real. ..."
Apr 12, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Carlos Diaz : 04/10/2019 at 1:44 pm

It's "coup de grâce."

A great article that offers a more realistic view of the very old giant oil fields. It is very obvious that what they are doing to maintain production will result in a more rapid decline in the future. When that happens KSA will be in a lot of hurt, and the world will have an abrupt awakening.

Adam Ash : 04/10/2019 at 5:27 pm
So my simple math says: 256 URR was to last 53 years, 74 URR at the same production rate will last 15 years. Seneca with a vengeance! Rite? EOLAWKI here we come!

add to that the usual woes of increasing internal oil consumption (3 mbd and rising fast) and the need to try and build their way out of their demise (requiring more oil and money), and the usual predictions of the 'export land model' look very reasonable, and disastrous for the House of Saud. There will be a tapered end, but the potential for acute instability in production and the in political and social environments of the country within the next decade is real.

[Apr 12, 2019] At some point Saudi will hit the Seneca Cliff. If they are doing all this advanced recovery to to keep flow rates up then fields will probably hit a wall and crash rather than slow decline.

Notable quotes:
"... Oil consumption has been increasing in all sectors and the growing global economy will require more oil in industry. You seem to think oil is just used in transportation. NOT true. ..."
"... Imagine oil production peaked today. In order for aviation to continue to grow, along with other industries that use oil. How many of the 98 million vehicles sold this year would need to be electric cars? How many electric motorcycles would have to be sold? ..."
"... I believe a Seneca cliff scenario would be a catastrophic one hence the reaction to such a scenario would also be catastrophic. ..."
"... World demand is currently over 100 mb/day, while production is at about 99 mb/day. Does that mean we are using up the already produced reserves? ..."
Apr 12, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Karen Fremerman : 04/10/2019 at 12:17 pm

At some point the Seneca Cliff will be hit. If they are doing all this advanced recovery to to keep flow rates up then fields will probably hit a wall and crash rather than slow decline. Is my thinking correct on that? Karen
Hugo : 04/11/2019 at 2:20 am
Dennis

Oil consumption has been increasing in all sectors and the growing global economy will require more oil in industry. You seem to think oil is just used in transportation. NOT true.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/307194/top-oil-consuming-sectors-worldwide/

Imagine oil production peaked today. In order for aviation to continue to grow, along with other industries that use oil. How many of the 98 million vehicles sold this year would need to be electric cars? How many electric motorcycles would have to be sold?

https://motorcyclesdata.com/2019/03/25/world-motorcycles-market/

Knowing these answers gives us a real understanding of what needs to happen.

Schinzy : 04/11/2019 at 3:42 am

The Seneca cliff for World output requires heroic assumptions which are unlikely to be true in practice.

I strongly disagree with that assessment. I believe the probability of a Seneca cliff is increasing. I think oil extraction is an economic phenomena, not a geological phenomena. During economic expansion, a positive feedback loop is in place: oil extraction produces economic growth which encourages investment in oil extraction producing more economic growth. Once peak oil occurs, I anticipate that this feedback loop will go into reverse: decreased oil production will produce economic contraction which will discourage investment in oil extraction reducing extraction rates leading to economic collapse.

Without investment the IEA estimates that production would fall by 50% in 2025 and by 80% in 2040.

I actually think economic collapse is a great opportunity to introduce a new economic system. The one we have is not only unfair, it encourages environmental devastation.

David Graebner asks rhetorically how a theory such as neoclassic economics based on false hypotheses perdures. His answer is that you teach the biggest lies in the first year. That's why false preconceptions about the economy are so common. I think neoclassical economics chose the wrong mathematical tool to analyse the economy, they chose optimisation. I don't see anything optimal in the economy, I think differential systems would be a much more appropriate mathematical tool with which to analyse the economy, keeping track of money flows.

Our assessment of how the oil cycle will play out can be found here: https://www.tse-fr.eu/publications/oil-cycle-dynamics-and-future-oil-price-scenarios .

Iron Mike : 04/11/2019 at 6:05 am
Hi Ron,

I assume a Seneca cliff scenario would imply rapid economic collapse, as a result i think there will be war over resources. Between which countries i don't know, but i assume U.S will go to war with Russia and or China, via direct war or proxy wars in regions were the countries national security depends on specific resources. So the middle east would as usual be a key area of conflict.

I believe a Seneca cliff scenario would be a catastrophic one hence the reaction to such a scenario would also be catastrophic.

Fred Magyar : 04/11/2019 at 8:30 am
U.S will go to war with Russia and or China, via direct war or proxy wars in regions were the countries national security depends on specific resources.

Perhaps! However modern warfare tends to be very energy intensive. It seems to me a rather safe bet that in a post peak oil world, mostly running on renewables, it might be more likely that societies will be trying to conserve their energy resources and not waste it on war.

But the verdict is not yet in, on whether or not humans are smarter than yeast!

German Guy : 04/10/2019 at 12:53 pm
World demand is currently over 100 mb/day, while production is at about 99 mb/day. Does that mean we are using up the already produced reserves?
Dennis Coyne : 04/10/2019 at 3:03 pm
German Guy,

It simply means we are using oil that is being stored, the so-called oil stocks, eventually as these are reduced, oil prices start to rise and demand (consumption) decreases while supply (production) increases in response to the change in oil price.

[Apr 12, 2019] The northern three Saudi fields reached their Seneca Cliff somewhere around 2010 and began declining at several times 2%. They will decline to near nothing in the next few years

Apr 12, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Ron Patterson : 04/10/2019 at 4:06 pm

Well, no, Ghawar is not declining at 2% per year. Ghawar did not start declining in 2004. And the southern two fields are not declining at all. The northern three fields reached their Seneca Cliff somewhere around 2010 and began declining at several times 2%. They will decline to near nothing in the next few years. Then Ghawar will have level production at somewhere around 2 million barrels per day and hold that level for a decade or two.

Ghawar cannot possibly be adequately described as one field. It is five different fields with five different decline and depletion rates.

When Saudi said, in 2006, that their average decline rate was down to almost 2%, that was the average for all their fields. Some fields were declining at a much faster rate and some fields were not declining at all. Khurais and Manifa were still to be ramped up. Those fields had been in mothballs and would be brought back on line. Now they are likely not declining at all but other fields are declining at a much faster rate than 2%.

But here is the important point. The depletion rate is another matter altogether. That figure is likely above 8% per year.

Ron Patterson : 04/10/2019 at 7:08 pm
Do you have production data for the various fields from 2006 to 2018?

Dennis, you know better than ask such a silly question. Saudi production of individual fields is a closely guarded secret.

Dennis, have you ever wondered why the Saudis keep all this data such a secret? Why don't they just let the actual data known to the world? What was the production data from Safaniya in 2018? Or what was the production data from Manifa in 2018? Or what was the production data from Khurais in 2018, or from Berri, or from all their other fields? And how did that compare to the production in 2017, or 2016?

Dennis, we don't know shit about any of this. We don't know because it is a closely guarded secret. Why, Dennis, Why?

They know Dennis, they know and they don't want you to know. Why?

I know why Dennis. Because what they actually report, which is almost nothing, is a lie. You simply choose to believe it. I do not. I choose to believe the analysis who try to figure out why they are lying. You choose to simply believe the Saudis.

Dennis, the idea that Saudi Arabia has 266 billion barrels of reserves is preposterous beyond belief. Even the Saudis realize that now are trying to slowly reduce that figure. Yet some people, like you, Robert Rapier and Michael Lynch, seemed perfectly ready to believe such an absurd figure. That just floored me. Goddammit, have some people gone insane?

Okay, I have said my peace here and showed my ignorance as to what Saudi Arabia actually can produce for the next 50 years. But you know, it is what they say they can produce.

You believe them. I don't. And neither of us can prove our case. And there it must rest until the actual production data comes in next year and next year and ..

Eulenspiegel : 04/10/2019 at 10:41 am
Good work Ron.

When this is true, that's the reason China is pushing electric travel as hard as they can.

They have more possibilites to know the truth (secret service) than we reading reports. And with SA and Russia having only round about 80 GB left, and producing each round about 10 mbpd, there are not many years left before a major oil incident.

I wonder why oil prices are that stable at the moment. Oil production fell hard this year so far, down everywhere except USA. And there the growth is decelerated.
And demand is still climbing, it will use up all the US growth projected by the optimistic EIA.
A 500 kbpd decline from OPEC is not included here, they still calculate with an increase from opec.

Last question: Where is Russia standing at the moment?

[Apr 12, 2019] Looks like Saudi Arabia counts internal consumption as revenue

Notable quotes:
"... Saudi Arabia, in 2018 produced approximately 3.76 billion barrels of crude only. Their BOE produced was approximately 4.75 billion barrels. That would account for the revenue is they sold every barrel of it. But they consumed a lot themselves. So other than that I have no explanation. Do they count their own consumption as revenue? ..."
Apr 12, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Chris Martensonx : 04/10/2019 at 11:05 am

Ron,

I'm wondering if you can help solve a mystery.

In the bond prospectus SA revealed their financials. Puzzling to me was the claim of revenue of $356 billion.

Why puzzling?

Because Brent averaged ~$75/bbl in 2018. Divide $356 by $75 and you come up with 4.75 Gbbl, which when we divide by 365 days in a year, we get 13 million barrels per day production.

???

I can't get their numbers to work. Even with a 10% premium on their grades of crude (generous), that leaves 11.7 mbd of production . I can't get anything to line up here.

Any ideas?

Dennis Coyne : 04/10/2019 at 11:15 am
Chris,

They also produce NGL and natural gas, in 2016 it was about 1.94 Mb/d or 708 MMb of NGL, I have no idea what the average selling price is for NGL on World markets, it would depend on the mix of NGL of course.

Ron Patterson : 04/10/2019 at 11:31 am
Saudi Arabia, in 2018 produced approximately 3.76 billion barrels of crude only. Their BOE produced was approximately 4.75 billion barrels. That would account for the revenue is they sold every barrel of it. But they consumed a lot themselves. So other than that I have no explanation. Do they count their own consumption as revenue?
Dennis Coyne : 04/10/2019 at 11:54 am
EIA has about 4.5 Gb of total liquids produced by KSA in 2018, that would imply $79/boe average selling price.

I suppose in accounting terms the Saudi Government could pay Aramco for the subsidized oil and the 4.75 Gbo would give us the $75/boe selling price.

[Apr 09, 2019] The danger of Seneca cliff on oil production is growing

Apr 09, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Carlos Diaz: 04/08/2019 at 8:07 pm

The decline is likely to be less steep than the increase

Have you heard about a Seneca cliff? It is called that way because Seneca in his letter number 91 to Lucillius (Epistulae Morales ad Lucilium), written towards the end of the year AD 64, a year before he died, refers to the fire that destroyed Lugdunum (Lyon) the summer of that year in the following terms:

It would be some consolation for the feebleness of our selves and our works, if all things should perish as slowly as they come into being; but as it is, increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.

It appears he knew almost two thousand years ago what you don't.

Hickory: 04/09/2019 at 10:12 am
I expect that a long slow declining tail of production will have some abrupt jolts downward along the way, and end up lower quicker as a result.

The jolts downward will come as producing countries become failed states and the chaos disrupts operations.

For examples of how this comes to be, just look at the past 5 yrs of Venez and Libya as examples. Sure they may pick back up at some point, but overall effect is diminished global production, well below a theoretically well managed industry.

Secondly, (and likely a smaller effect) some deposits will likely be kept in the ground because of choices some cultures make. For example, I could see the USA deciding to keep its large remaining coal deposits largely in the ground after 2030. Canada could decide to put a big constraint on oil sand production, keeping just enough for domestic use, if they so desired.

Carlos Diaz: 04/09/2019 at 7:12 pm
Why you think such scenario is so improbable? Venezuela is living a Seneca cliff in its oil production right now. Did anybody predicted it before it took place?

We have no idea of what will happen after Peak Oil. Some people assume nothing, while others think it will be the end of our civilization. Somewhere in between probably. But I fail to see how the economy can take it well if for most applications we can't substitute oil. The globalization is run on oil and its derivatives.

Your assumptions can only be valid at this side of the peak. If you think otherwise you fool yourself.

[Apr 07, 2019] The Ultimate Pivot Saudi Betrayal Of The Petrodollar

Apr 07, 2019 | www.zerohedge.com

Authored by Tom Luongo,

Saudi Arabia has gone nuclear, threatening the petrodollar . Or has it?

The report from Zerohedge via Reuters that Saudi Arabia is angry with the U.S. for considering a bill exposing OPEC to U.S. antitrust law is a trial balloon.

The chances of the U.S. bill known as NOPEC coming into force are slim and Saudi Arabia would be unlikely to follow through, but the fact Riyadh is considering such a drastic step is a sign of the kingdom's annoyance about potential U.S. legal challenges to OPEC.

If these things are so unlikely then why make the threat public? There are a number of reasons.

First, one must remember that the Saudis are hemorrhaging money. Their primary budget deficit in 2018 was around 7% of GDP. Since the 2014 crash in oil prices it has gone from almost zero sovereign debt to $180 billion in debt to finance its spending, or around 22% of GDP.

2019's budget will be even bigger as it tries to deficit spend its way to growth. It's needs for a higher oil price are built into their primary budget not their production costs, which are some of the lowest in the world.

Second, the Saudis finally opened up t he books on Saudi-Aramco this week. And it revealed the giant is far more profitable than thought. It has is eye on acquiring stakes in some of the biggest oil and gas projects out there these past couple of years. It's floating its first public bond to buy a stake in SABIC to get into the mid and downstream petroleum markets.

Third, the Saudis budget deficit is tied directly to its having pegged the Riyal to the U.S. dollar which leaves them at the mercy of the dollar price of oil. It doesn't have the flexibility of Russia who free-floated the ruble back in late 2014 to pay local expenses in devalued local currency when oil prices drop.

This is why the Saudis are struggling financially and why Aramco is looking to use its financial might to finally begin making friends and influencing people around the world.

So, a threat to de-couple Saudi oil sales from the dollar is a threat a long time coming. I've been talking about this day since I started this blog and for years previous when I wrote for Newsmax.


MalteseFalcon , 5 minutes ago link

China is now the largest consumer of SA oil, so the clock is ticking on the petrodollar.

Aramco is super profitable. The oil scam of the last 45 years has fucked the West in the a$$.

D-plorable , 35 minutes ago link

"A decade of ZIRP has created a massive synthetic short position in the dollar in the form of emerging market corporate and real estate debt.

But after that? And after that synthetic short pushes the dollar much higher and the price of oil into the floor?"

Honrst question to the economics gurus on ZH:

How does a short position on the dollar push the price higher?

steverino999 , 36 minutes ago link

Saudis should flip Trump the bird and start selling their oil in yuan or euro, and buy weapons from Russia. America's stranglehold over global economics is coming to an end, all because of Donald Trump.

yerfej , 13 minutes ago link

Yes this has to be true and of course nothing before trump had anything to do with anything it is all a mirage.

carman , 48 minutes ago link

"Rome" is burning, and that's just what it deserves. Decades of endless wars and it's "clipping" of the currency, will end with collapse. Many of its citizens can't raise $400. for an emergency but they can have their Netflix and Prime subscriptions to pay for. Hey, War Inc. is reaching its end.

roadhazard , 1 hour ago link

The Saudis are trapped. They have All US military equipment and have to have US hands to operate their air force and who knows what else. Plus they have too many skeletons that the US can hurt them with.

ThomasEdmonds , 1 hour ago link

"Peace for Israel" would include outside businesses or investors sticking to BDS actions. Other than the United States and Europe, natural law would suggest no of law should instruct any counterparty as to what Israel entity one should or should not engage in commerce.

In another time it was called free market capitalism.

Israeli lobbies shouldn't be able to squelch the First Amendment by requiring public servants to sign agreements not to condemn Israel-related foreign policy or domestic decisions.

Boing_Snap , 2 hours ago link

The empire of paper currency and oil supported by bankers and their wars is coming to an end.

Fracking is a desperate attempt at keeping internal oil production going, it's akin to burning the roof shingles of your house to keep warm. The costs to get the oil outweigh the usefulness of the endeavor, the only ones benefiting are the bankers loaning the money to the frackers.

Rome did the same it self destructed, and rotted internally, meanwhile the cost of empire drained resources and the vassals began to act in their own self-interests. The Khazarian bankers remained the host drained, and they began to leech the new fledgling empires.

https://www.historynet.com/why-rome-fell.htm

frankthecrank , 2 hours ago link

Where do you see bankers in that history? Rome devalued its own gold coins by mixing tin in with it. The soldiers felt cheated. Meanwhile, Rome allowed mass migration to Rome and southern Italy prompting real Romans to move to Gaul (northern Italy was "Cisalpine Gaul"). Rome wasn't even the capitol when it was sacked--Ravenna was. Get your history straight. Real Romans were not willing to fight for city that wasn't their own anymore.

So too, what will bring down the US is mass migration from the third world--just what the Comintern wanted 90 years ago.

Keter , 2 hours ago link

The US petrodollar reserve currency status has been a disaster for middle class Americans much to their ignorance. It has allowed the financial-political cabal elite to enrich themselves at the expense of deficit and debt expansion while impoverishing the middle class and bringing in replacement labor serfs. Time to rip this band-aid off and the American middle class to reclaim their country, that will probably ultimately lead to revolution.

Pro_sanity , 2 hours ago link

It must, I do wonder if violence can be avoided?

sanctificado , 2 hours ago link

Suure, blame Saudi Arabia for the "betrayal". But of course overlook the fact that the US Congress passed a law that put 9/11 squarely on SA's shoulder when Israhell is the one that did 9/11 .

Keter , 2 hours ago link

Operation Northwoods redux; the Mossad may have had a big role, but it could not have been pulled off without complete acquiescence from the DIA. It is all part of the long game. {See Donald Rumsfield handling empty gurney on Pentagon grounds}

Milton Keynes , 2 hours ago link

" Second, the Saudis finally opened up t he books on Saudi-Aramco this week. And it revealed the giant is far more profitable than thought. "

I would place about as much credibility in the Aramco books as I would in Bernie Madoff's books.

Aramco pumps oil, that's about all we really know for sure. Given the intertwining with the saudi state, it's not a conventional oil company in any manner, it's much more a PDVSA then a StatOil.

To Hell In A Handbasket , 2 hours ago link

Buys oil how? You fuckers have been printing paper and buying resources with it. You guys simply lack the ability to extrapolate, because if you did, the current lifestyle of the USSA, without dollar world reserve status and the petrodollar perk, is utterly ******* horrendous.

Never will the axiom "I never knew how good I had it, until it was gone" be more apt, when the USSA faces her date with reality. $22 trillion in debt, world reserve currency, petrodollar, Wall Street a cesspit of financial fraud, no adverse market reaction to continuous money printing and has the audacity to complain trade deficits and OPEC? lol

Death to the USSA cannot come soon enough. A parasite nation of resource theives and the world knows it.

Pro_sanity , 2 hours ago link

Sorry here comes an ad hominem, the Saudi's are emblematic of all Arabs: cowards.

cashback , 2 hours ago link

What a motherfuckin degenerated bastard.

Palestinians with stones and sticks against F-35's and M-16's kick the balls of Jews and have been doing so for the past 100 years.

Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen and everywhere the Anglo-Zionists have waged war, Arabs have put on a resistance that left the aggressors astonishing.

And for the fact: Arabs created the biggest empire known to men in the matter of 80 years that was almost 3 times bigger then the mighty Rome.

White snowniggers like Pro-sanity **** their pants by what Arabs have done.

InTheLandOfTheBlind , 3 hours ago link

why is it not reported that through Citigroup, the Saudis hold a large financial interest in shale production?

[Apr 06, 2019] Of course the Saudis are laughing at Trump. The world is laughing at Trump. He is an ignorant baffoon.

Apr 06, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

vonfleck, 04/05/2019 at 4:53 pm

All quiet on the saudian front…

https://www.arabianbusiness.com/energy/416992-saudi-aramco-reveals-sharp-output-drop-at-worlds-largest-oil-field

Ron Patterson x Ignored says: 04/06/2019 at 12:24 pm

Trump Declares War on OPEC, Saudis Laugh as Oil Price Surges

Donald Trump is ramping up his attack on oil prices as US crude hit a 5-month high today. While up to now the US president has been focused on denouncing high energy costs via Twitter, it appears he now is looking to do more than merely bash OPEC online. As CNBC reported, the US wants to ensure "dominance" in this sector through a blockbuster executive order designed to boost pipeline infrastructure. In reality, Trump walks a dangerous tightrope when it comes to crude.

Of course the Saudis are laughing at Trump. The world is laughing at Trump. He is an ignorant baffoon.

likbez says: 04/06/2019 at 7:59 pm

Of course the Saudis are laughing at Trump. The world is laughing at Trump. He is an ignorant baffoon.

May be ignorant bully, not only (or so much) baffoon ? He practices what is called “gangster capitalism” on international arena for some time. Totally ignores international law. Does not even use a fig leaf as previous administrations. Trump is “Full Spectrum Dominance” in action 😉

In view of the Saudi role of the guarantor of the “dollar as the reserve currency” system his behavior might well be a reckless move, which totally contradicts Trump’s behavior in Khashoggi case. Kind of direct pressure is Soprano style: “Do what I want, or…”

If Saudi stop selling oil for dollars that will be a very bad news for the USA. Hopefully they can’t do this being a Washington vassal, but to insult a vassal is not the best diplomacy, anyway.

Why Trump can’t understand that oil is limited and higher prices might well be the best strategy as they helps to find alternatives, develop infrastructure (for example for EV passenger cars) and prepare to inevitable shortages, or even the Seneca Cliff in oil supply.

Why he wants to propel/sustain the US stock market at any cost?

Low oil prices can help to kick the neoliberal can down the road, but they can’t save the USA from the “secular stagnation” and might not be able to save the USA from the recession too because consumption is low: credit card debt reached 0.87 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2018 On other words the bottom 80% of the USA population might well be debt slaves of the US banks.

On March 25, 2019 yields curve inverted the first time since mid 2007: The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note dipped below the yield on the 3-month paper.

In other words secular stagnation is the result of the crisis of neoliberalism both as the ideology and as the social system dominant in the world. Neoliberalism entered “zombie” stage in 2008 and it continues to exist (and even counterattack, as in Argentina and Brazil) only due to the fact that there is no acceptable alternative and the return to the New Deal capitalism (which many wish) is difficult or impossible because management now is allied with the capital owners, not with workers (as was temporary the case after the Great Depression; that alliance ended in 70th).

I just do not understand if Trump is on drags such as amphetamine, see rumors at https://heavy.com/news/2016/10/donald-trump-drugs-drug-use-sniffing-sniffles-cocaine-clinton-debate-test ; BTW captagon was/is a favorite drag of ISIS headchoppers which allowed them to demonstrate the level of toughness in fight and self-sacrifice they did, as it switches off the instinct of self-preservation enhancing the person’s ability to do dangerous things. ( https://www.vox.com/world/2015/11/20/9769264/captagon-isis-drug ).

Or he is a “naturally stupid” bully, who does not care to learn diplomatic etiquette and some elements of diplomacy, while on the job.

In both cases he is a real embarrassment for the nation, is not he?

While I do not support Russiagate witch hunt, his behavior really raises questions about fitness for the office.

Also Bush II style (as in Iraq WDM fiasco ) bunch of crazy warmongers, neocons that control Trump administration foreign policy (Haley in the past, Pompeo, Bolton now ) is not what his voters expected based on his election promises.

In a sense, he proved to be Republican Obama, another master of “bait and switch” maneuver.

Looks like we are living during what Chinese call “interesting times”, aren’t we ?

[Apr 06, 2019] Remember Peak Oil? It's back!

Notable quotes:
"... Hubbert wrote in 1948: "How soon the decline may set in is not possible to say, Nevertheless the higher the peak to which the production curve rises, the sooner and sharper will be the decline." ..."
"... In fact, Ghawar is not as resilient as we were led to believe. We just found out that its output has fallen substantially since Aramco previously came clean on its reserves and production. If Ghawar is losing momentum fast, peak oil – remember that theory? – might be closer than we had thought. And Ghawar is just one of dozens of enormous conventional-oil reservoirs scattered around the planet that are in various stages of decline. ..."
"... Those include the North Sea, Alaska's Prudhoe Bay, and Reguly reminds us that Mexico's Cantarell reservoir used to supply 2.1 million barrels a day and is now down to 135,000. ..."
Apr 06, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Ron Patterson 04/06/2019 at 12:05 pm

Remember Peak Oil? It's back!

It seems that the biggest Saudi field is losing its punch.

Years ago we used to talk a lot about peak oil, the prediction made by M. King Hubbert that the easy oil was going to run out, that it was going to get harder and harder to find the stuff, and it was going to get more and more expensive to get out of the ground.

Hubbert wrote in 1948: "How soon the decline may set in is not possible to say, Nevertheless the higher the peak to which the production curve rises, the sooner and sharper will be the decline."

According to the predictions made back in 2005, right about now the Saudis are running out and we are smack in the middle of confusion, heading for chaos. Of course we are not, we are flooded with fossil fuels, thanks to the fracking boom.

But according to Eric Reguly, writing in the Globe and Mail, there is trouble ahead, because that prediction about Saudi oil may not be that far off. He writes that the giant Ghawar field used to produce ten percent of the world's oil, five million barrels a day.

The US Permian shale basin now supplies 4.1 million barrels a day, but fracked wells run out pretty quickly, and the fracking companies are all losing money. Better sell that pickup truck; it may well cost a lot more to fill it. As Reguly concludes, the Ghawar field is indeed in trouble,"and if it does collapse, peak oil will come a bit sooner."

In fact, Ghawar is not as resilient as we were led to believe. We just found out that its output has fallen substantially since Aramco previously came clean on its reserves and production. If Ghawar is losing momentum fast, peak oil – remember that theory? – might be closer than we had thought. And Ghawar is just one of dozens of enormous conventional-oil reservoirs scattered around the planet that are in various stages of decline.

Those include the North Sea, Alaska's Prudhoe Bay, and Reguly reminds us that Mexico's Cantarell reservoir used to supply 2.1 million barrels a day and is now down to 135,000.

[Apr 06, 2019] Saudi News Saudi Aramco reveals sharp output drop at world's largest oil field - ArabianBusiness.com

Apr 06, 2019 | www.arabianbusiness.com

Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest conventional oil field, can produce a lot less than almost anyone believed It was a state secret and the source of a kingdom's riches. It was so important that US military planners once debated how to seize it by force. For oil traders, it was a source of endless speculation.

Now the market finally knows: Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest conventional oil field, can produce a lot less than almost anyone believed.

When Saudi Aramco on Monday published its first ever profit figures since its nationalization nearly 40 years ago, it also lifted the veil of secrecy around its mega oil fields. The company's bond prospectus revealed that Ghawar is able to pump a maximum of 3.8 million barrels a day - well below the more than 5 million that had become conventional wisdom in the market.

"As Saudi's largest field, a surprisingly low production capacity figure from Ghawar is the stand-out of the report," said Virendra Chauhan, head of upstream at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. in Singapore.

... ... ...

[Apr 06, 2019] Permian tight oil production should peak flatten in the next few months by Art Berman

Apr 06, 2019 | www.macrovoices.com

[Apr 06, 2019] Canada: January production is lower but exports increased on year-to-year basic

Apr 06, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Energy News x Ignored says: 04/05/2019 at 11:19 am

Canada produced 4,524 kb/day of crude oil & equivalent products in January down -278 m/m
Exports of crude oil & equivalent products totaled a record 3,860 kb/day in January, up 9.1% from January 2018
Chart for production: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D3ZukJvX4AASI8p.png
Chart for crude oil inventory https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D3ZuEauWsAIsGcD.png

2019-04-05 Statistics Canada, press release https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/190405/dq190405b-eng.htm

[Apr 05, 2019] Petrodollar Panic Saudis Threaten To Dump USD-Oil Trades Over OPEC Anti-Trust Bill

Apr 05, 2019 | www.zerohedge.com

Three year ago - almost to the day - Saudi Arabia rattled its first sabre towards the United States, with an implicit threat to dump US Treasuries over Congress' decision to allow the Saudis to be held responsible for the 9/11 attacks.

In a stunning report at the time by the NYTimes , Saudi Arabia told the Obama administration and members of Congress that it will sell off hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of American assets held by the kingdom if Congress passes a bill that would allow the Saudi government to be held responsible in American courts for any role in the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

Then, six months ago , the Saudis once again threatened to weaponize their wealth as the biggest importer of arms from America in the world.

You will find more infographics at Statista

And now , Reuters reports, citing three unidentified people familiar with Saudi energy policy, Saudi Arabia is threatening to drop the dollar as its main currency in selling its oil if the U.S. passes a bill that exposes OPEC members to U.S. antitrust lawsuits .

While the death of the petrodollar has long been predicted (as the petroyuan gathers momentum), this is the most direct threat yet to the USDollar's exorbitant privilege...

"The Saudis know they have the dollar as the nuclear option," one of the sources familiar with the matter said.

"The Saudis say: let the Americans pass NOPEC and it would be the U.S. economy that would fall apart," another source said.

Riyadh reportedly communicated the threat to senior U.S. energy officials , one person briefed on Saudi oil policy told Reuters

As Reuters details, NOPEC, or the No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act, was first introduced in 2000 and aims to remove sovereign immunity from U.S. antitrust law, paving the way for OPEC states to be sued for curbing output in a bid to raise oil prices.

While the bill has never made it into law despite numerous attempts, the legislation has gained momentum since U.S. President Donald Trump came to office. Trump said he backed NOPEC in a book published in 2011 before he was elected, though he not has not voiced support for NOPEC as president.

Trump has instead stressed the importance of U.S-Saudi relations, including sales of U.S. military equipment, even after the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi last year.

A move by Saudi Arabia to ditch the dollar would resonate well with big non-OPEC oil producers such as Russia as well as major consumers China and the European Union, which have been calling for moves to diversify global trade away from the dollar to dilute U.S. influence over the world economy.

Russia, which is subject to U.S. sanctions, has tried to sell oil in euros and China's yuan but the proportion of its sales in those currencies is not significant.

Venezuela and Iran, which are also under U.S. sanctions, sell most of their oil in other currencies but they have done little to challenge the dollar's hegemony in the oil market.

However, if a long-standing U.S. ally such as Saudi Arabia joined the club of non-dollar oil sellers it would be a far more significant move likely to gain traction within the industry.

Perhaps this explains why Russia has been dumping dollars in favors of gold in recent months ...

And why China suddenly admitted to increased gold reserves...

And why there has been a spike in yuan buying by reserve managers last year, as the IMF pointed out in a recent report.

So the next time you hear an analyst on CNBC categorically dismiss the notion that the loss of the dollar's reserve currency status isn't something that markets should take seriously (even as several credible voices have warned that it should be), you'd do well to remember this chart.

Nothing lasts forever.

[Apr 02, 2019] As long as the world wide economy remains on its feet that there will be huge increases in demand for oil for transportation.

Apr 02, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

OFM x Ignored says: 03/30/2019 at 7:51 am

I'm sure that so long as the world wide economy remains on its feet that there will be huge increases in demand for oil for transportation.

But nobody seems to give any thought here to things that will reduce demand. Cars will be driving themselves soon. Think about trains. Before too much longer, railroaders will be able to move stuff on trains almost as nimbly as truckers do today, at least on city to city basis when the cities are at least a couple of hundred miles apart. Long distance trucking may be a thing of the past within, like camera film and typewriters, within a couple of decades. These possibilities are worthy of thought if you are in the oil biz for the long haul.

Every country that imports oil is going to have a powerful incentive to reduce demand for it to the extent it can as depletion sooner or later pushes one exporting country after another into the importer category. Countries in the Middle East with oil and gas to export are going to find it so profitable to build wind and solar farms that they will be building them like mushrooms popping up after a spring rain, because they can sell some or maybe even most of the oil and gas they are burning now to generate electricity, thereby earning a big profit on their solar and wind farm investment.

My thinking is that these changes will actually PROLONG our dependence on oil, taken all around, by helping hold the price down so we can afford to run existing legacy equipment, and have affordable petrol based chemicals, etc. I don't think anybody currently in the biz needs to worry about selling out anytime soon, lol. But considerations such as these may have a huge impact on exploration and development starting within a decade or so.

Times change. Doom doesn't necessarily have anything to do with it.

[Apr 02, 2019] Brazil's oil production is down

Apr 02, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Energy News x Ignored says: 04/01/2019 at 1:52 pm

Brazil's oil production at 2,489 kb/day during February, which is down -142 from January
2018 average 2,587 kb/day
No press release yet, waiting to see if they mention the new FPSOs ANP -> http://www.anp.gov.br/
Chart: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D3FsLyMW0AANPL4.png

[Apr 01, 2019] Trump Is Bullying OPEC Again. He Might Get His Way

Apr 01, 2019 | www.bloomberg.com

Oil just had its best quarter in about a decade. Naturally, President Donald Trump is complaining. Donald J. Trump ‏ Verified account @ realDonaldTrump Mar 28

Very important that OPEC increase the flow of Oil. World Markets are fragile, price of Oil getting too high. Thank you!

The real target of this tweet is unmistakably Saudi Arabia, the one OPEC member with enough idle capacity to make a difference to the producer group's output. It's also the one over which the U.S. has the most leverage.

Straightforward economic considerations would see Saudi Arabia dismiss the request out of hand, but political calculations make its choice more difficult.

OPEC production fell by around 1.5 million barrels a day between December and February, and probably dropped further in March. Saudi Arabia made by far the biggest voluntary reduction . It contributed almost two thirds of the group's total output cut as measured against individual baselines in February, and made deeper cuts than it had promised it would implement each month this year.

[Mar 30, 2019] The US desperately needs Venezuelan oil

Highly recommended!
Mar 30, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

dh-mtl , Mar 30, 2019 5:00:04 PM | link

The U.S. desperately needs Venezuelan oil.

They lost control of Saudi Arabia, after trying to take down MBS and then betraying him by unexpectedly allowing waivers on Iranian oil in November.

The U.S. cannot take down Iran without Venezuelan oil. What is worse, right now they don't have access to enough heavy oil to meet their own needs.

Controlling the world oil trade is central to Trump's strategy for the U.S. to continue its empire. Without Venezuelan oil, the U.S. is a bit player in the energy markets, and will remain so.

Having Russia block the U.S. in Venezuela adds insult to injury. After Crimea and Syria, now Venezuela, Russia exposes the U.S. as a loud mouthed-bully without the capacity to back up its threats, a 'toothless tiger', an 'emperor without clothes'.

If the U.S. cannot dislodge Russia from Venezuela, its days as 'global hegemon' are finished. For this reason the U.S. will continue escalating the situation with ever-riskier actions, until it succeeds or breaks.

In the same manor, if Russia backs off, its resistance to the U.S. is finished. And the U.S. will eventually move to destroy Russia, like it has been actively trying to do for the past 30 years. Russia cannot and will not back off.

Venezuela thus becomes the stage where the final act in the clash of empires plays out. Will the world become a multi-polar world, in which the U.S. becomes a relatively isolated and insignificant pole? Or will the world become more fully dominated by a brutal, erratic hegemon?

All options are on the table. For both sides!

[Mar 28, 2019] U.S. Shale Output may Start Dropping Next Year - Oil (General) - Oil Price Community

Mar 28, 2019 | community.oilprice.com

[Mar 28, 2019] Trump sells out his base to please Wallstreet and Oil industry - Oil (General) - Oil Price Community by JJCar

Looks like most participants in the discussion viry form highly incompetent to delusional...
Notable quotes:
"... The oil companies sell the oil at cost to their offshore companies whose headquarters are a P.O Box in Bermuda, Cayman Islands or other low tax/no tax domicile , who in turn sells it to enduser. The US does not collect any Corporate tax. But the Trump friends get richer and the working class will be paying up for it. ..."
"... TRUMP 2020 has already raised $180 Million in donations. Take a look at the list of contributors. Surprise. . . . . Surprise. . . . . Surprise. ..."
"... Trump new slogan, " Make My Friends Richer Again .. .. .. .. .. and Again and Again." ..."
"... So you are saying that the little bait and switch with the Saudis to crash oil prices for the mid terms was selling out the public? LOL! Why don't you stick to oil instead of posting political crap? There was no Bait and Switch. To think that Saudi's/OPEC ever sacrificed for the benefit of the United Stated or world economy is dilutional. They tried to take out US oil enterprise in 1970's , 1985 -1986, 1998-1999 and recently 2015. ..."
Mar 20, 2019 | community.oilprice.com

JJCar

Trump Whitehouse just released a report from Council of Economic Advisors that said high oil prices are good for US economy. A little "wink and a nod" to oil.

Trump recently stated, " I'm comfortable with $65 oil." That's not a free market pricing.

High oil prices for oil companies and their partners does not outright the benefit to the consumer and economy . $50 to $55 oil would set the U.S. and world economy booming. Trump wrote about OPEC INFLATED PRICES in his 2011 book. He campaigned to control OPEC IN 2016.

He sold out the working class public to please buddies like Harold Hamm of Continental Energy, Oil Companies and the Wall street boys that sat down with OPEC at Ceraweek for a nice dinner. It has been reported that about two dozen firms attended.

One Houston Shale producer said the US Shale companies and Banks that finance them threatened to ruin them.

Some (5) oil companies rightfully declined the invitation such as Conoco. The CEO stated they are Market driven and will live with the volatility.

Sad. The oil found under the United States is a valuable "Natural Resource" but it is also a valuable "National Resource" and should benefit all.

The oil companies sell the oil at cost to their offshore companies whose headquarters are a P.O Box in Bermuda, Cayman Islands or other low tax/no tax domicile , who in turn sells it to enduser. The US does not collect any Corporate tax. But the Trump friends get richer and the working class will be paying up for it.

Just like Trump reneged on his campaign promise regard the HUGE Wallstreet tax loophole "carried interest". He now does so oil as a favor to his buddies.

TRUMP 2020 has already raised $180 Million in donations. Take a look at the list of contributors. Surprise. . . . . Surprise. . . . . Surprise.

When the traders see this oil will be up today. Need to wait for new pipelines. . . . Q4.

Oil stabilized in the $50's would set both the US and World economies on fire.

Trump new slogan, " Make My Friends Richer Again .. .. .. .. .. and Again and Again."

Edited 40 minutes ago by JJCar
Typo
wrs

So you are saying that the little bait and switch with the Saudis to crash oil prices for the mid terms was selling out the public? LOL! Why don't you stick to oil instead of posting political crap? There was no Bait and Switch. To think that Saudi's/OPEC ever sacrificed for the benefit of the United Stated or world economy is dilutional. They tried to take out US oil enterprise in 1970's , 1985 -1986, 1998-1999 and recently 2015.

They do take care if the President wants low oil price or not . Going back to at least the 1980's after the US presidents term ended they were invited to Saudi Arabia or Kuwait to give a speech for $1 Million. Bubba liked the idea so much he started a whole new industry out of it. The Saudi's during Obama Administration decide "why wait" and the King gave Michelle Obama two necklesses valued over $1.5 million.

As was stated on Bloomberg the major sell off in December was more a demand problem than a supply problem..

As soon as Trump announced in May '18 that sanctions would go into effect in November Saudi exports went straight up. Not because they were doing Trump a favor it was because demand from their clients. They did very well May to Oct. If you are a major importer of OPEC oil and you hear that sanction are going to effect in Nov what do you do ? ? ? You top off your tanks with crude. . . . . . . you turn up the volume at your refineries to stock pile finished product of gas, diesel, etc. (which all of Asia did) When sanctions had to be delayed and did not materialize the demand/price dropped for a while.

Trump was under extreme pressure due to European and Asian economic downturns. He didn't want to cause a recession . So he delayed the sanctions.

MONEY TALKS

During the 2016 election the big money from Oil and Wallstreet went to.Hillary. She knew where her bread was buttered. Why do you think her State Department approved the Keystone XL. The State Department had a study done on the Keystone XL . The consulting contract was awarded to a firm that was run by two former Clinton Campaign workers. After her approval the Canadian Chamber of Commerce gave the Clinton Foundation a large donation. Several large oil companies with interest in the Cd Tar Sand gave the Clinton Foundation large donations. A setup.

Before she announced in 2016 Clintons personal Lawyer and Clinton Foundation Lawyer was put on the Board of Blackrock the World's largest Hedgefund whose CEO Fink was an outspoken critic of legislation to end carried interest.

During 2012 campaign Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) Insisted the carried interest tax loophole had to be eliminated and attacked Romney for benefiting from carried interest. The next election cycle guess who received the largest portion of the donations from Hedge Funds . . . . that's right the good Senator Chucky Schumer. He never mentions Carried Interest again.

Democrat or Republican .. .. .. they're all the same. Show me the Money.

Doesn't anyone believe in free markets anymore. I think Supply and Demand economics prevails. JH and WS you might want to lighten up on your Shale equities holdings before the three new pipelines start pumping by the end of year. Before then oil should continue to rise. lol

Edited 35 minutes ago by JJCar
Typo

Rodent
On 3/20/2019 at 1:52 PM, Oil_Engineer said:

I think China has invested heavily in oil producing regions to gain control just in case oil prices rise considerably.

Agreed. China has invested heavily in Venezuelan oil in making large loan for oil deals, and now it is doing the same in South Sudan.

shadowkin

Yours is an interesting interpretation and conclusion, probably from the Bloomberg article. Consider the following 4 excerpts from that same report.

  1. "...increased production has undoubtedly served as a boon to the American position internationally as well as a buffer for American consumers'
    sensitivity to oil prices"
  2. "As the United States continues to expand its position as an exporter in global oil markets, it better insulates itself from the adverse welfare and GDP
    consequences of high oil prices and price spikes"
  3. "A second effect of the changing U.S. net petroleum position is that it may increase protection from the business cycle that is exacerbated by high
    oil prices"
  4. "Kilian and Vigfusson (2017) observe that in the period since 1974, U.S. economic recessions have been universally preceded by increases in the
    price of oil"

These 4 quotes are consistent with more US oil on the market and lower prices. The last quote especially indicates it's doubtful the Trump administration desires high oil prices and would be contradictory to Mike Pompeo urging oil companies to continue pumping just 2 weeks ago. Not that it would be unprecedented for government to say contradictory things but I think it's quite clear the US government wants 'low' oil prices.

Here is the quote Bloomberg extracts, leaving out the first sentence.

"The shrinking level of U.S. net imports of petroleum provides indirect benefits through macroeconomic channels by reducing sensitivity to oil price shocks. If the United States becomes an annual net exporter of petroleum, higher oil prices would, on average, help the U.S. economy. In this case, the net gains for producers, and to their private partners that own mineral deposits, would outweigh the higher costs for consumers. Such a change would have a number of important policy implications"

Granted the second to last sentence does seem to favor higher prices but seems to be contradicted by the first and the above 4 quotes. And it then seems to stress, in the last sentence, that it is not advocating for higher prices but that it is a consequence that must be considered when choosing policies. It would not be unheard of for advisors to have conflicting views and is typical of bureaucratic infighting.

You can always count on Bloomberg, or most of the msm for that matter, to write a clickbaity headline with no substance in the story and a questionable interpretation (along with a twitter insert). I think the writer simply went to the conclusion of the report and pulled those sentences out without reading anything else and put "Trump wrong" in the headline. She has a deadline to beat after all.

DanilKa
On 3/20/2019 at 1:30 PM, Tomasz said:

Well if you have such a big shale oil industry and China = your biggest geopolitical rival is also a biggest oil importer imho oil in the 70's is better than in 50's. Because today China imports something like 8 to10 times more oil than USA.

China imports ~10MM bopd, US ~7 but with liquids it is more https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=38672

mthebold
On 3/20/2019 at 9:29 AM, JJCar said:

Trump Whitehouse just released a report from Council of Economic Advisors that said high oil prices are good for US economy.

Not true . Trump wrote about OPEC INFLATED PRICES in his 2011 book. He campaigned to control OPEC IN 2016. He sold out the working class public to please buddies like Harold Hamm of Continental Energy and the Wallstreet boys that sat down with OPEC at Ceraweek.

Sad. The oil found under the United States is a valuable "Natural Resource" but it is also a valuable "National Resource" and should benefit all. The oil companies sell the oil at cost to their offshore companies whose headquarters are a P.O Box in Bermuda, Cayman Islands or other low tax/no tax domicile , who in turn sells it to enduser. The US does not collect any Corporate tax. But the Trump friends get richer and the working class will be paying up for it.

Just like Trump reneged on his campaign promise regard the HUGE Wallstreet tax loophole "carried interest".

TRUMP 2020 has already raised  $180 Million in donations. Take a look at the list of contributors. Surprise. . . . . Surprise.

When the traders see this oil will be up today.  Need to wait for new pipelines. . . . Q4. 

Oil stabilized in the $50's would set the US and World economies on fire.

Trump new slogan, " Make My Friends Richer Again and Again and Again."

Whether the US wants higher or lower prices depends on the immediate circumstances. When Trump was first elected, lower prices may have been better. Now that unemployment has dropped, wages are rising, and Trump's voters are more confident, slightly-elevated prices may be more advantageous. Why? Because higher prices accelerate US oil production. This simultaneously improves our economy and lowers our national defense expenses. Once we're a net exporter, we'll want even higher prices.

Then there's increased investment. When oil prices are higher, less efficient vehicles get replaced faster, R&D for efficiency technologies takes off, and new companies are founded to meet emerging needs. Remember: the US economy's greatest competitive advantage is innovation. We excel at at. More so than any other country, we benefit from stressors and rapid change. High oil prices are that stressor, and we've reached a point where we should embrace it.

There's also the ever-improving fleet efficiency. As we squeeze more from each barrel, the price of oil matters less to us. At some point, the price of fuel will be less important to our economy than the profits we reap in world markets. If we haven't reached that point already, we certainly will in the near future when electric vehicles will be offered in most market segments.

Finally, there's the COL differential between Trump Country and the People's Republic of America. The Internet tells me gas is <$3.25/gallon in CA, and of course, everything is expensive there. I can see how the good comrades of CA would be struggling. Then again, that's why I don't live in CA. This morning, I drove past a local gas station at $2.40/gallon. When even luxury cars get 30+mpg and there are plenty of jobs near affordable housing, $2.40/gallon is irrelevant. Make it $3/gallon; let's get this technology & profits show on the road!

Seriously though: the US economy is reaching a point where consumers can survive higher oil prices, and we'll enjoy other benefits from those higher prices. I would expect to see the US government progressively less concerned about this issue.

JJCar
5 hours ago, mthebold said:

Whether the US wants higher or lower prices depends on the immediate circumstances.

I make this short. First when you say "Whether US wants higher or low prices . . . " Whom are you referring to when you say " . . US . . " ? Trump Administration ? US consumers ? US oil companies ? Politicians? What all of them should want is Free Market economics. Supply and Demand Market.

Stabil $50 bbl oil would create the world's largest economic boom ever. For ALL countries. Including emerging markets. Why fill the 22,000 Saudi Prices pickets with cash. . . get a job.

Edited 2 hours ago by JJCar
Wastral
5 hours ago, JJCar said:

I make this short.

First when you say "Wether US wants higher or low prices . . . "

Whom are you referring to when you say " . . US . . " ? Trump Administration ? US consumers ? US oil companies ? Politicians?

What all of them should want is Free Market economics.

Supply and Demand Market.

How ignorant to think the world runs on free market. Most of the world is closed dictatorships/oligarchies whom we have STUPIDLY allowed into our free market and then this statement is not true either, as the rest of "market driven economies", the EU have ~ no oil, so in effect would be a monopoly and DID act this way as the USA was the #1 DOMINANT oil producer in the world for its first 50 years. Oil has NEVER worked on free market principles.

For this reason it is one reason why Thorium salt water thermal reactors can NOT get funding outside of China. If anyone can get them to work, Coal, oil, NG, wind, solar, geothermal will disappear overnight. Why? EVERYONE has Thorium in their country. It is a waste product from nearly every single mining operation around the world. We were very close to getting them to work in the 70's but Nixon happened who hated any industry outside of S. California and cut anyones funding outside of this region to zero.

JJCar
3 hours ago, Wastral said:

How ignorant to think the world runs on free market. Most of the world is closed dictatorships/oligarchies whom we have STUPIDLY allowed into our free market and then this statement is not true either, as the rest of "market driven economies", the EU have ~ no oil, so in effect would be a monopoly and DID act this way as the USA was the #1 DOMINANT oil producer in the world for its first 50 years. Oil has NEVER worked on free market principles.

For this reason it is one reason why Thorium salt water thermal reactors can NOT get funding outside of China. If anyone can get them to work, Coal, oil, NG, wind, solar, geothermal will disappear overnight. Why? EVERYONE has Thorium in their country. It is a waste product from nearly every single mining operation around the world. We were very close to getting them to work in the 70's but Nixon happened who hated any industry outside of S. California and cut anyones funding outside of this region to zero.

I agree the World doesn't run on a free market. SAUDI's sold US Refiners $3.00 oil for $120.00 in 2006.

BUT THE U.S. RUNS ON A FREE MARKET ECONOMY.

PRICE FIXING IS AGAINST THE U.S. ANTI-TRUST LAWS AND SHOULD BE ENFORCED TO THE FULLEST.

As to your other point . . . . . I just bought a THORIUM SALT WATER THERMAL REACTOR AT HOME DEPOT LAST WEEK.

My other one just went on me. I had to take cold showers for three days until I could replace it.

Edited 2 hours ago by JJCar
Tupo
Fred czubba

Hello JC ,,,, as far as I know one of the leaders in the field of Thorium Reactor Technology is Moltex Energy. www.moltexenergy.com. it looks very promising and the Canadian Government is reviewing this technology at this time.Conceptually it looks pretty darn good.

CookieMonster
2 hours ago, Fred czubba said:

Hello JC ,,,, as far as I know one of the leaders in the field of Thorium Reactor Technology is Moltex Energy. www.moltexenergy.com. it looks very promising and the Canadian Government is reviewing this technology at this time.Conceptually it looks pretty darn good.

Lots of things look good, conceptually.

JJCar
2 hours ago, Fred czubba said:

Hello JC ,,,, as far as I know one of the leaders in the field of Thorium Reactor Technology is Moltex Energy. www.moltexenergy.com. it looks very promising and the Canadian Government is reviewing this technology at this time.Conceptually it looks pretty darn good.

A lot of things look good conceptually. They've been working on fusion reactors forever. I'm all for new technology . . . . but I wouldn't hold your breath.

I used to be pissed off when GE wouldn't bring to market that light bulb they invented that never burned out. . . . . Then there was the car Goodyear tire that lasted for 500,000 miles but never saw the light of day . . . Then . . .

Edited 1 hour ago by JJCar
Wastral
2 hours ago, JJCar said:

I agree the World doesn't run on a free market. SAUDI's sold US Refiners $3.00 oil for $120.00 in 2006.

BUT THE U.S. RUNS ON A FREE MARKET ECONOMY.

PRICE FIXING IS AGAINST THE U.S. ANTI-TRUST LAWS AND SHOULD BE ENFORCED TO THE FULLEST.

As to your other point . . . . . I just bought a THORIUM SALT WATER THERMAL REACTOR AT HOME DEPOT LAST WEEK.

My other one just went on me. I had to take cold showers for three days until I could replace it.

If the USA cared about price fixing, I agree we should, then we should be massively increasing tariffs on everyone.... actually I have argued for this, but for freedom reasons. WTO is the dumbest thing ever as it ACTIVELY works against freedom as it gives power to greedy power hungry oligarchs around the world.

[Mar 28, 2019] Trump sells out his base to please Wallstreet and Oil industry - Oil (General) - Oil Price Community

Mar 28, 2019 | community.oilprice.com

Started by JJCar , March 20 2019

oil price Sign in to follow this Followers 2

[Mar 26, 2019] New Fed stance is a life saver for shale

Notable quotes:
"... In the ongoing desire on their part to be transparent they have, until Wed., projected their expectations for increases to short-term rates over the next two years to be 4 increases this year and 4 next year. ..."
"... As of Wednesday, that's all gone. The new dot chart says zero increases this year and at most 1 next year. The 10-year treasury immediately cratered its yield to 2.5something percent. ..."
Mar 26, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Watcher 03/24/2019 at 10:25 am

Re shale financing . . . Folks should go and read financial articles from Wednesday afternoon of this week.

The Fed basically took a sledgehammer to their dot charts. In the ongoing desire on their part to be transparent they have, until Wed., projected their expectations for increases to short-term rates over the next two years to be 4 increases this year and 4 next year.

As of Wednesday, that's all gone. The new dot chart says zero increases this year and at most 1 next year. The 10-year treasury immediately cratered its yield to 2.5something percent. Still falling. Overseas we see Germany tracking, and Japan, and more and more maturities on their yield curves return to negative. Not just real negative. Outright nominal negative.

This is something that Financial media does not talk about. Negative nominal interest rates from major country government bonds. How could they talk about it? It is utterly obvious that this specific reality demonstrates that the entirety of all analyses has no meaning. Their only defense is silence. Shale would prefer that it stay that way.

The Fed also announced an end to balance sheet normalization, which is euphemism for trying to get rid of all of those bonds and MBS that were purchased as part of QE. They are ending their purchases late this year. They dare not continue the move towards normal. I believe that leaves their balance sheet still holding in excess of 3 trillion. That's not normalization, sports fans. And it has been TEN YEARS.They havent been able to get to "normal" in ten years, and as of Wed, they will stop trying.

The Treasury notes are the underlying basis for what shale companies have to pay to borrow money. Thoughts by folks here that the monetary gravy train will shut off shale drilling need rethinking. Bernanke changed everything. Forever.

These Fed actions are indistinguishable from whimsy. Imagining that Powell is Peak Oil cognizant and is focused on shale is a tad extreme, but only a tad.

I recall a Bernanke quote during the crisis that made clear he knew what Peak would mean -- at any price.

[Mar 26, 2019] I don't believe Oil will fall much anymore. Oil prices were kept in check by the rising dollar. Now that the Fed is no longer hiking, and probably will be cutting rates soon, its likely Oil prices will start rising again.

Mar 26, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

TechGuy

says: 03/26/2019 at 11:37 am

"When US Equities are well on their way south US treasury yields will also join the negative club. But oil will also be $20"

I don't believe Oil will fall much anymore. Oil prices were kept in check by the rising dollar. Now that the Fed is no longer hiking, and probably will be cutting rates soon, its likely Oil prices will start rising again. I think we probably will see some short dips in energy and Stocks, but once the Fed cuts or does more QE, prices will climb back.

I've also noticed that prices for everything are going up. We are back in stagflation with falling labor demand, but rising costs: materials, Food, imports, etc. My wild ass guess is that WTI will be higher in Dec 2019 than it is today.

Its possible that the Fed is now trapped: Rising inflation, but failing labor demand. Prices will likely increase as unemployment increases. My guess is Fed will let Inflation go unchecked in order to avoid another major recession. If this assessment turns out to be correct, Holding cash in USD is going to losing strategy.

FWIW: I don't believe the number of job offerings reflect the real labor market. I think companies are keeping a lot of filled jobs posted due to extreme employee turn over rates. For instance retail job turnover rates are as high as 81% per year. Often worker quit after a few months or weeks. Thus it just makes sense for employers to keep the same jobs permanently listed, even if they have the position currently filled.

[Mar 26, 2019] $20 oil will CRUSH any exploration and development and NOBODY will spend a dollar on CAPEX.

Mar 26, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Proteus x Ignored says: 03/24/2019 at 6:26 pm

$20 oil will CRUSH any exploration and development and NOBODY will spend a dollar on CAPEX.
No Questions Asked.
A short-term high for consumers but a worse cataclysm than 2015
I am in Central TX, (Bryan/College Station) and remember well the 1980's crash and of course 2015-18.
The offshore oil exploration company I work for here was saved by a TGS contract during that sh+t show.
We are now so swamped with jobs it is stupid.
Not enough boats or people worldwide- (NEW , unused fleets were cut up for scrap) and honestly a dozen people I personally know ( some family members) either retired or went to other technical fields.
They have all refused offers to come back .
Please remember, we are already 3 years behind on Explorati0n and Development and we are just starting to see the ramifications of that 3 year worldwide "vacation".
Oh, and IMO 2020 is rolling in. Not a problem for us as we have to use .5ppm diesel anyway .
Plus all the other Producer Countries with their own personal problems .
Yessir, gonna be a wild show.
I was /am no fan of Jimmy Carter but the world should have listened to him back in 1977.
That old grasshopper/ant fable comes to mind
A lot of lost years since then, would have been nice to develop alternates before it got scary.
But that is what Humans do
Silly creatures .
shallow sand x Ignored says: 03/24/2019 at 7:49 pm
Interesting how the service firms are all swamped yet are mostly on the brink of BK, based on how the shares are trading.
Boomer II x Ignored says: 03/24/2019 at 9:24 pm
I started to pay attention to oil during the Carter years. We could have had a very manageable transition to alternative options to oil if we had used those decades to plan for it.

Instead, we're going to have significantly more disruption when we can't keep our petroleum consumption at current levels.

[Mar 21, 2019] OPEC February Production Data " Peak Oil Barrel

Mar 21, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

HuntingtonBeach x Ignored says: 03/19/2019 at 1:20 am

"Perfect Storm" Drives Oil Prices Higher

"The latest Brent rally has brought prices to our peak forecast of $67.5/bbl, three months early," Goldman Sachs wrote in a note. The investment bank said that "resilient demand growth" and supply outages could push prices up to $70 per barrel in the near future. It's a perfect storm: "supply loses are exceeding our expectations, demand growth is beating low consensus expectations with technicals supportive and net long positioning still depressed," the bank said.

The outages in Venezuela could swamp the rebound in supply from Libya, Goldman noted. But the real surprise has been demand. At the end of 2018 and the start of this year, oil prices hit a bottom and concerns about global economic stability dominated the narrative. But, for now at least, demand has been solid. In January, demand grew by 1.55 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year. "Gasoline in particular is surprising to the upside, helped by low prices, confirming our view that the weakness in cracks at the turn of the year was supply driven," Goldman noted. "This comforts us in our above consensus 1.45 mb/d [year-on-year] demand growth forecast."

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Perfect-Storm-Drives-Oil-Prices-Higher.html

[Mar 20, 2019] I am now of the opinion that 2018 will be the peak in crude oil production, not 2019 as I earlier predicted. Russia is slowing down and may have peaked

If so, economics will suffer and chances for Trump for re-election are much lower, of exist at all due to all his betrayals
In the fable of "The Boy Who Cried Wolf," the wolf actually arrives at the end. Never forget that. Peak oil will arrive. We don't know when, and we are not prepared for it.
Shale play without more borrowed money might be the next Venezuela. .
Mar 16, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

I am now of the opinion that 2018 will be the peak in crude oil production, not 2019 as I earlier predicted. Russia is slowing down and may have peaked. Canada is slowing down and Brazil is slowing down. OPEC likely peaked in 2016. It is all up to the USA. Can shale oil save us from peak oil?

OPEC + Russia + Canada, about 57% of world oil production.

Jeff says: 03/14/2019 at 1: 50 pm

"I am now of the opinion that 2018 will be the peak in crude oil production, not 2019 as I earlier predicted. Russia is slowing down and may have peaked. Canada is slowing down and Brazil is slowing down. OPEC likely peaked in 2016. It is all up to the USA. Can shale oil save us from peak oil?"

IEA´s Oil 2019 5y forecast has global conventional oil on a plateau, i.e. declines and growth match each other perfectly and net growth will come from LTO, NGL, biofuels and a small amount of other unconventional and "process gains".

Iran is ofc a jocker, since it can quickly add supply. Will be interesting to see how Trump will proceed.

Carlos Diaz x Ignored says: 03/14/2019 at 3:23 pm

I am quite original in my opinion about Peak Oil. I think it took place in late 2015. I will explain. If we define Peak Oil as the maximum in production over a certain period of time we will not know it has taken place for a long time, until we lose the hope of going above. That is not practical, as it might take years.

I prefer to define Peak Oil as the point in time when vigorous growth in oil production ended and we entered an undulating plateau when periods of slow growth and slow decline will alternate, affected by oil price and variable demand by economy until we reach terminal decline in production permanently abandoning the plateau towards lower oil production.

The 12-year rate of growth in C+C production took a big hit in late 2015 and has not recovered. The increase in 2 Mb since is just an anemic 2.5% over 3 years or 0.8% per year, and it keeps going down. This is plateau behavior since there was no economic crisis to blame. It will become negative when the economy sours.

Peak Oil has already arrived. We are not recognizing it because production still increases a little bit, but we are in Peak Oil mode. Oil production will decrease a lot more easily that it will increase over the next decade. The economy is going to be a real bitch.

Dennis Coyne x Ignored says: 03/14/2019 at 4:57 pm
Carlos Diaz,

Interesting thesis, keep in mind that the price of oil was relatively low from 2015 to 2018 because for much of the period there was an excess of oil stocks built up over the 2013 to 2015 period when output growth outpaced demand growth due to very high oil prices. Supply has been adequate to keep oil prices relatively low through March 2019 and US sanctions on Iran, political instability in Libya and Venezuela, and action by OPEC and several non-OPEC nations to restrict supply have resulted in slower growth in oil output.

Eventually World Petroleum stocks will fall to a level that will drive oil prices higher, there is very poor visibility for World Petroleum Stocks, so there may be a 6 to 12 month lag between petroleum stocks falling to critically low levels and market realization of that fact, by Sept to Dec 2019 this may be apparent and oil prices may spike (perhaps to $90/b by May 2020).

At that point we may start to see some higher investment levels with higher output coming 12 to 60 months later (some projects such as deep water and Arctic projects take a lot of time to become operational, there may be some OPEC projects that might be developed as well, there are also Canadian Oil sands projects that might be developed in a high oil price environment.

I define the peak as the highest 12 month centered average World C+C output, but it can be define many different ways.

Carlos Diaz x Ignored says: 03/14/2019 at 7:18 pm
So Dennis,

Our capability to store oil is very limited considering the volume being moved at any time from production to consumption. I understand that it is the marginal price of the last barrel of oil that sets the price for oil, but given the relatively inexpensive oil between 2015 and now, and the fact that we have not been in an economical crisis, what is according to you the cause that world oil production has grown so anemically these past three years?

Do you think that if oil had been at 20$/b as it used to be for decades the growth in consumption/production would have been significantly higher?

I'll give you a hint, with real negative interest rates and comparatively inexpensive oil most OECD economies are unable to grow robustly.

To me Peak Oil is an economical question, not a geological one. The geology just sets the cost of production (not the price) too high, making the operation uneconomical. It is the economy that becomes unable to pump more oil. That's why the beginning of Peak Oil can be placed at late 2015.

The economic system has three legs, cheap energy, demographic growth, and debt growth. All three are failing simultaneously so we are facing the perfect storm. Social unrest is the most likely consequence almost everywhere.

Dennis Coyne x Ignored says: 03/14/2019 at 9:20 pm
Carlos,

If prices are low that means there is plenty of oil supply relative to demand. It also means that some oil cannot be produced profitably, so oil companies invest less and oil output grows more slowly.

So you seem to have the story backwards. Low oil prices means low growth in supply.

So if oil prices were $20/b, oil supply would grow more slowly, we have had an oversupply of oil that ls what led to low oil prices. When oil prices increase, supply growth will ne higher. Evause profits will be higher and there will be more investment.

Carlos Diaz x Ignored says: 03/15/2019 at 5:03 am
No Dennis,

It is you who has it backwards, as you only see the issue from an oil price point of view, and oil price responds to supply and demand, and higher prices are an estimulus to higher production.

But there is a more important point of view, because oil is one of the main inputs of the economy. If the price of oil is sufficiently low it stimulates the economy. New businesses are created, more people go farther on vacation, and so on, increasing oil demand and oil production. If the price is sufficiently high it depresses the economy. A higher percentage of wealth is transferred from consumer countries to producing countries and consumer countries require more debt. During the 2010-2014 period high oil prices were sustained by the phenomenal push of the Chinese economy, while European and Japanese economies suffered enormously and their oil consumption depressed and hasn't fully recovered since.

In the long term it is the economy that pumps the oil, and that is what you cannot understand.

Oil limits → Oil cost → Oil Price ↔ Economy → Oil demand → Oil production

The economy decides when and how Peak Oil takes place. If you knew that you wouldn't bother with all those models.

And in my opinion the economy already decided in late 2015 when the drive to increase oil production to compensate for low oil prices couldn't be sustained.

Schinzy x Ignored says: 03/15/2019 at 11:18 am
Carlos,

Your reasoning is close to mine. See https://www.tse-fr.eu/publications/oil-cycle-dynamics-and-future-oil-price-scenarios .

Dennis Coyne x Ignored says: 03/15/2019 at 3:01 pm
Carlos,

Both supply and demand matter. I understand economics quite well thank you. You are correct that the economy is very important, it will determine oil prices to some degree especially on the demand side of the market. If one looks at the price of oil and economic growth or GDP, there is very little correlation.

The fact is the World economy grew quite nicely from 2011 to 2014 when oil prices averaged over $100/b.

There may be some point that high oil prices are a problem, apparently $100/b in 2014 US$ is below that price. Perhaps at $150/b your argument would be correct. Why would the economy need more oil when oil prices are low? The low price is a signal that there is too much oil being produced relative to the demand for oil.

I agree the economy will be a major factor in when peak oil occurs, but as most economists understand quite well, it is both supply and demand that will determine market prices for oil.

My models are based on the predictions of the geophysicists at the USGS (estimating TRR for tight oil) and the economists at the EIA (who attempt to predict future oil prices). Both predictions are used as inputs to the model along with past completion rates and well productivity and assumptions about potential future completion rates and future well productivity, bounded by the predictions of both the USGS and the EIA along with economic assumptions about well cost, royalties and taxes, transport costs, discount rate, and lease operating expenses.

Note that my results for economically recoverable resources are in line with the USGS TRR mean estimates and are somewhat lower when the economic assumptions are applied (ERR/TRR is roughly 0.85), the EIA AEO has economically recoverable tight oil resources at about 115% of the USGS mean TRR estimate. The main EIA estimate I use is their AEO reference oil price case (which may be too low with oil prices gradually rising to $110/b (2017$) by 2050.

Assumptions for Permian Basin are royalties and taxes 33% of wellhead revenue, transport cost $5/b, LOE=$2.3/b plus $15000/month, annual discount rate is 10%/year and well cost is $10 million, annual interest rate is 7.4%/year, annual inflation rate assumed to be 2.5%/year, income tax and revenue from natural gas and NGL are ignored all dollar costs in constant 2017 US$.

Mario C Vachon x Ignored says: 03/15/2019 at 6:39 pm
You do incredible work Dennis and I believe you are correct. Demand for oil is relatively inelastic which accounts for huge price swings when inventories get uncomfortably high or low. If supply doesn't keep up with our needs, price will rise to levels that will eventually create more supply and create switching into other energy sources which will reduce demand.
Carlos Diaz x Ignored says: 03/15/2019 at 6:57 pm

Why would the economy need more oil when oil prices are low? The low price is a signal that there is too much oil being produced relative to the demand for oil.

You don't seem to be aware of historical oil prices. For inflation adjusted oil prices since 1946 oil (WTI) spent:
27 years below $30
13 years at ~ $70
18 years at ~ $40
10 years at ~ $90
5 years at ~ $50
https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart
And the fastest growth in oil production took place precisely at the periods when oil was cheapest.

You simply cannot be more wrong about that.

And your models are based on a very big assumption, that the geology of the reserves is determinant for Peak Oil. It is not. There is plenty of oil in the world, but the extraction of most of it is unaffordable. The economy will decide (has decided) when Oil Peak takes place and what happens afterwards. Predictions/projections aren't worth a cent as usual. You could save yourself the trouble.

Dennis Coyne x Ignored says: 03/16/2019 at 7:33 am
Carlos,

I use both geophysics and economics, it is not one or the other it is both of these that will determine peak oil.

Of course oil prices have increased, the cheapest oil gets produced first and oil gradually gets more expensive as the marginal barrel produced to meet demand at the margin is more costly to produce.

Real Oil Prices do not correlate well with real economic growth and on a microeconomic level the price of oil will affect profits and willingness of oil companies to invest which in turn will affect future output. Demand will be a function of both economic output and efficiency improvements in the use of oil.

Dennis Coyne x Ignored says: 03/16/2019 at 7:34 am
Thanks Mario.
Dennis Coyne x Ignored says: 03/16/2019 at 10:49 am
Carlos,

Also keep in mind that during the 1945-1975 period economic growth rates were very high as population growth rates were very high and the World economy was expanding rapidly as population grew and the World rebuilt in the aftermath of World War 2. Oil was indeed plentiful and cheap over this period and output grew rapidly to meet expanding World demand for oil. The cheapness of the oil led to relatively inefficient use of the resource, as constraints in output became evident and more expensive offshore, Arctic oil were extracted oil prices increased and there was high volatility due to Wars in the Middle east and other political developments. Oil output (C+C) since 1982 has grown fairly steadily at about an 800 kb/d annual average each year, oil prices move up and down in response to anticipated oil stock movements and are volatile because these estimates are often incorrect (the World petroleum stock numbers are far from transparent.)

On average since the Iran/Iraq crash in output (1982-2017) World output has grown by about 1.2% per year and 800 kb/d per year on average, prices have risen or fallen when there was inadequate or excess stocks of petroleum, this pattern (prices adjusting to stock levels) is likely to continue.

There has been little change when we compare 1982 to 1999 to 1999-2017 (divide overall period of interest in half) for either percentage increase of absolute increase in output.

I would agree that severe shortages of oil supply relative to demand (likely apparent by 2030) is likely to lead to an economic crisis as oil prices rise to levels that the World economy cannot adjust to (my guess is that this level will be $165/b in 2018$). Potentially high oil prices might lead to faster adoption of alternative modes of transport that might avert a crisis, but that is too optimistic a scenario even for me. 🙂

HHH x Ignored says: 03/15/2019 at 9:44 pm
China will be in outright deflation soon enough. Economic stimulus is starting to fail in China. They can't fill the so called bathtub up fast enough to keep pace with the water draining out the bottom. So to speak.

Interest rates in China will soon be exactly where they are in Europe and Japan. Maybe lower.

In order to get oil to $90-$100 the value of the dollar is going to have to sink a little bit. In order to get oil to $140-$160 the dollar has to make a new all time low. Anybody predicting prices shooting up to $200 needs the dollar index to sink to 60 or below.

The reality is oil is going to $20. Because the rest of the world outside the US is failing. Dennis makes some nice graphs and charts and under his assumptions his charts and graphs are correct. But his assumptions aren't correct.

We got $20 oil and an economic depression coming.

Peak Oil is going to be deflationary as hell. Higher prices aren't in the cards even when a shortage actually shows up. We will get less supply at a lower price. Demand destruction is actually going to happen when economies and debt bubbles implode so we actually can't be totally sure we are ever going to see an actual shortage.

We could very well be producing 20-30% less oil than we do now and still not have a shortage.

Oh and EV's are going to have to compete with $20 oil not $150 oil.

Lightsout x Ignored says: 03/16/2019 at 6:25 am
You are assuming that the oil is priced in dollars there are moves underway that raise two fingers to that.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2174453/china-and-russia-look-ditch-dollar-new-payments-system-move

Dennis Coyne x Ignored says: 03/16/2019 at 7:41 am
HHH,

When do you expect the oil price to reach $20/b? We will have to see when this occurs.

It may come true when EVs and AVs have decimated demand for oil in 2050, but not before. EIA's oil price reference scenario from AEO 2019 below. That is a far more realistic prediction (though likely too low especially when peak oil arrives in 2025), oil prices from $100 to $160/b in 2018 US$ are more likely from 2023 to 2035 (for three year centered average Brent oil price).

Dennis Coyne x Ignored says: 03/16/2019 at 9:56 am
HHH,

My assumptions are based on USGS mean resource estimates and EIA oil price estimates, as well as BIS estimates for the World monetary and financial system.

Your assumption that oil prices are determined by exchange rates only is not borne out by historical evidence. Exchange rates are a minor, not a major determinant of oil prices.

HHH x Ignored says: 03/16/2019 at 6:50 pm
Dennis,

Technically speaking. The most relevant trendline on price chart currently comes off the lows of 2016/02/08. It intersects with 2017/06/19. You draw the trendline on out to where price is currently. Currently price is trying to backtest that trendline.

On a weekly price chart i'd say it touches the underside of that trendline sometime in April in the low 60's somewhere between $62-$66 kinda depends on when it arrives there time wise. The later it takes to arrive there the higher price will be. I've been trading well over 20 years can't tell you how many times i've seen price backtest a trendline after it's been broken. It's a very common occurrence. And i wouldn't short oil until after it does.

But back to your question. $20 oil what kind of timetable. My best guess is 2021-2022. Might happen 2020 or 2023. And FED can always step in and weaken the dollar. Fundamentally the only way oil doesn't sink to $20 is the FED finds a way to weaken the dollar.

But understand the FED is the only major CB that currently doesn't have the need to open up monetary policy. It's really the rest of the worlds CB ultra loose monetary policy which is going to drive oil to $20.

[Mar 18, 2019] Countries that have reported their January production

Mar 18, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Energy News, says: 03/17/2019 at 2:49 am

Countries that have reported their January production (shown on the chart)
OPEC14 -822
Alberta -268
Mexico -87
Russian Federation -78
Brazil -60
Norway -48
Total -1,429 kb/day
Chart https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D12BlLBW0AEDR6G.png

So far for February: Russia, OPEC14, Norway
Total: -330 kb/day

Chart for December which includes the big increases from the USA
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D12IDSNW0AE18u1.png

China crude oil production
February: 3,813 kb/day
Average 2018: 3,788 kb/day
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D12PhtXWsAALxTw.png

[Mar 17, 2019] Oil Expected to Rally into Summer Rigzone

Mar 17, 2019 | www.rigzone.com

Merill Lynch expects oil to rally into the summer.

That's what Hootan Yazhari, head of global frontier markets equity research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, revealed in a television interview with Bloomberg earlier this week.

"We think a number of factors will see the oil market tighten in the coming months and, as a result, as we head into the summer we should expect oil prices to have a seven-handle, maybe even higher depending on a number of other factors," Yazhari told Bloomberg in the interview.

Looking at oil price predictions for the year, the Merill Lynch representative highlighted in the interview that the company was sticking to its forecast of $70 per barrel.

"As things stand we're looking for $70. Just to put that into context, that's a $72 average from today onwards," Yazhari told Bloomberg.

Earlier this month, analysts at Fitch Solutions Macro Research (FSMR) lowered their average annual price forecast for Brent for 2019 . The analysts now forecast that Brent will average $73 per barrel this year, which marks a $2 decrease from their previous projection of $75 .

"We have adjusted down our forecast to reflect the softer start to the year, but our underlying bullish narrative is unchanged, with positive but slower global economic growth and supply management from OPEC," FSMR analysts stated in a report sent to Rigzone on March 4.

Brent will probably trade somewhere between $74 and $84 per barrel by year end, according to Fat Prophets' David Lennox, who expressed the view in a television interview with CNBC last month. Back in January, Wood Mackenzie forecasted that Brent will average $65 per barrel in 2019 .

[Mar 17, 2019] Exxon Hits the Brakes on $1.9B Project

Mar 17, 2019 | www.rigzone.com

(Bloomberg) -- Exxon Mobil Corp. is delaying a C$2.6 billion ($1.9 billion) oil-sands project in Canada by at least a year as the nation's energy industry grapples with a shortage of pipeline space and government-mandated production cuts.

Exxon's Canadian subsidiary, Imperial Oil Ltd., had originally planned to bring the 75,000-barrel-a-day Aspen project online in 2022, but is now slowing the pace of development at the site in northern Alberta. Any decision to resume normal activity will depend on future government actions and general market conditions, Imperial said Friday.

The delay is another blow to Canada's oil-sands industry, which suffered from record low prices last year after a wave of new production overwhelmed the region's pipeline capacity. That spurred the government of Alberta, where most oil-sands projects are located, to mandate production cuts to drain a glut of crude in storage and revive prices.

The move also reflects Exxon's increased focus on projects off Guyana's coast and in the Permian Basin in Texas. The company last week increased its target for Permian production to 1 million barrels a day by 2024 and expanded its estimate for the size of its Guyana discovery to 5.5 billion barrels.

New Risks

Imperial, which owns refineries that were benefiting from the cheaper feedstock, has been one of the loudest critics of the curtailment policy and cited the plan again in its explanation for the Aspen delay.

"We cannot invest billions of dollars on behalf of our shareholders given the uncertainty in the current business environment," Imperial Chief Executive Officer Rich Kruger said in a statement. "That said, our goal is to ensure the work we do this year will enable us to effectively and efficiently resume planned activity levels when the time is right."

Imperial hinted at a possible slowdown at Aspen last month, saying it was re-evaluating the project after the forced production cuts introduced new risks. The company also has said previously that the curtailment policy, by boosting Canadian heavy oil prices too high, has made shipping crude by rail uneconomical, forcing Imperial to dial back its rail shipments to almost nothing last month.

Imperial sanctioned the Aspen project in November. The operation would use an extraction method called a steam-assisted gravity drainage, in which steam is pumped underground to heat up sludgy oil-sands bitumen, allowing it to flow through another pipe to the surface.

Imperial was slated to spend about C$700 million on the project this year, and the extra free cash flow stemming from the delay may be used to buy back more shares, which would be a positive for the stock, Dennis Fong, an analyst at Cannaccord Genuity, said in a note.

Imperial rose 0.5 percent to C$36.95 at 10:20 a.m. in Toronto. Exxon fell 0.3 percent to $80.21 in New York.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kevin Orland in Calgary at [email protected] To contact the editors responsible for this story: Simon Casey at [email protected] Joe Carroll

[Mar 16, 2019] Perhaps the level of Saudi oil production was unsustainable and they are really glad to officially have an excuse to cut back on production.

Mar 16, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Ron Patterson

x Ignored says: 03/15/2019 at 6:22 am
.Saudi Arabia
Quota 10,311
.Feb. Production 10,087
.Difference -224

Saudi Arabia produced 224,000 barrels per day less than their quota. Did not anyone notice this and wonder why? The rest of OPEC was 179,000 barrels per day over their quota. Iraq was the largest violator being 121,000 bpd over their quota.

Also, Saudi Arabia was the absolute driving force behind these quota cuts implemented in January.

Baggen x Ignored says: 03/15/2019 at 7:24 am
Noticed, and you could argue that they are showing the way and taking the larger part of the burden since they want to be so nice to the rest of the opec members ;-).

Or perhaps the level they have been producing at is unsustainable and they are really glad to officially have an excuse to cut back on production.

Your take?

Ron Patterson x Ignored says: 03/15/2019 at 8:11 am
Or perhaps the level they have been producing at is unsustainable and they are really glad to officially have an excuse to cut back on production.

You nailed it. That's my take exactly.

[Mar 10, 2019] Oil Market About To Enter Supply Deficit

Mar 10, 2019 | finance.yahoo.com

• The OPEC+ cuts have likely already tipped the oil market into a supply deficit, according to Barclays.
• OECD inventories fell dramatically over the past two years, and came back to the five-year average in 2018, where they have mostly remained.
• The OPEC+ cuts quickly headed off a renewed surplus, and will likely drain inventories over the course of this year. Inventories are set to fall below the five-year average.
• Still, Barclays says the market return to balance or even a small surplus in the second half of 2019.

2. China's oil demand not collapsing

<img src="https://s.yimg.com/it/api/res/1.2/.fxgVesli1gE.apMTKU4BQ--~A/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7c209MTt3PTQ1MTtoPTMxNg--/http://media.zenfs.com/en-US/homerun/oilprice.com/43a64118adc9d08dff397f7e71a52626" itemprop="url"/>

• Some of the more catastrophic oil forecasts for 2019 centered on a sharp slowdown in Chinese demand.
• China's car sales actually contracted year-on-year over the last few months, and car sales could continue to fall this year.
• But China's demand, while slowing relative to years past, is still expected to grow by 0.5 mb/d in 2019, according to Barclays, the same rate of expansion as 2018.
• Next year, however, China's demand growth could slow a bit more, dipping below 0.4 mb/d, continuing a gradual deceleration in demand growth.

[Mar 05, 2019] Saudi Oil Strategy Brilliant Or Suicide

This is neoliberal/neocolonial analysis of the situation. Reader beware. But it catches some interesting interdependencies. For example the need for revenue intensifies with the growth of the population. This creates problems for KSA. As of March 2019 oil price per barrel did not return to $90 level yet.
The article was written in 2015 but still has value. So it is interesting to read what neoliberal thought at this time is not that different from what they think now...
The idea that Saudi Arabia is an independent player is too simplistic... It never was. It just hides the key role of the USA in engineering oil prices slump and the fact that Saudi Arabia is a vassal of Washington is ignored.
"... The Saudi miscalculation has several sources. One is the negative feedback loop between oil production, GDP, and national budgets that plagues many non-Western oil producers. Their GDP and national budgets depend significantly on the revenues from their oil exports. As a result, the revenue shortfalls incentivize them to produce as much oil as possible to mitigate the shortfall. ..."
"... Asian customers are taking advantage of the competition. They are reducing the share of long-term contracts in favor of spot purchases. For example, as the Wall Street Journal reported , some Japanese refiners are cutting the proportion of oil purchased through long-term contracts to around 70 percent from more than 90 percent, while some South Korean refiners are reducing the proportion from 75 to 50 percent. Furthermore, several national oil companies, Venezuela's among them, are building refineries with local partners in Asia, which will use their crude. ..."
"... Third, Saudi refusal to act as price guarantor undercuts the confidence foreigners need to invest in, or loan to, oil projects. ..."
"... Fourth, in terms of political risk, Saudi Arabia with its Gulf allies, Iran, and Iraq, and the Middle East in general, is at the epicenter of global tension, turmoil, and tumult. ..."
"... Fifth, its influence within OPEC, and therefore its ability to manage OPEC output and prices, is diminished ..."
"... Saudi officials apparently viewed $90 or even $80 per barrel oil for "one or two years" with equanimity. Can they maintain the composure they have displayed thus far as they incur in a single year the revenue losses they expected to take four years (at $90 oil) or two years (at $80 oil)? ..."
"... Yet, in effect, these countries are engaged in the oil equivalent of mutually assured destruction. The sharp drop in oil revenue damages each of these countries economically and financially, while the wars they wage directly and indirectly against each other drain resources from vital domestic projects. ..."
Aug 30, 2015 | peakoilbarrel.com
The Saudi miscalculation has several sources. One is the negative feedback loop between oil production, GDP, and national budgets that plagues many non-Western oil producers. Their GDP and national budgets depend significantly on the revenues from their oil exports. As a result, the revenue shortfalls incentivize them to produce as much oil as possible to mitigate the shortfall.

According to the IEA , daily output in June 2015 increased 3.1 million barrels over 2014, with 60 percent (1.8 million barrels) coming from OPEC. At 31.7 million barrels per day, OPEC output reached a three-year high.

This increase in output occurs with the context of a narrow global demand opportunity. Growth in demand in 2015, which the IEA forecasts to average around 1.4 million barrels per day, comes primarily from Asia and North America. In other major export markets, demand is stagnant. That has oil exporting countries, including OPEC members, Russia and others, focusing their sales on Asia, particularly China. North American demand is growing now that oil prices are low, but due to high levels of domestic production, the U.S. is no longer a growth market for oil exporters.

Each producer, therefore, is incentivized to undercut other producers directly (price per barrel) or indirectly (absorbing shipping cost or delivery risk) to win sales in Asia (or displace incumbent suppliers in other major markets). National oil producers can and are shifting the cost of the lowered prices to other sectors of the economy. The U.A.E., for example, has ended fuel subsidies, thereby essentially, increasing its budget revenues, while Saudi Arabia recently floated a $4 billion domestic bond offering to help finance its budget.

Asian customers are taking advantage of the competition. They are reducing the share of long-term contracts in favor of spot purchases. For example, as the Wall Street Journal reported , some Japanese refiners are cutting the proportion of oil purchased through long-term contracts to around 70 percent from more than 90 percent, while some South Korean refiners are reducing the proportion from 75 to 50 percent. Furthermore, several national oil companies, Venezuela's among them, are building refineries with local partners in Asia, which will use their crude.

Given this environment, it is not surprising that the revenue elasticity of production is highly sensitive, and negative. Saudi Arabia increased production by 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2015 but saw export revenues shrink by 42 percent.

Any Saudi Victory Will Be Pyrrhic

Saudi confidence in their financial wherewithal is proving misplaced.

Their need for revenue is intensifying rather than moderating. They are fighting a multi-front war with Iran directly (in Yemen) and indirectly (in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq). ISIS, Al Qaeda, and disaffected Shias present a significant domestic security threat. Countering external and internal threats demands increased spending (including, perhaps, a very expensive future nuclear weapons program), as does placating the fast growing male and female youth demographic, which requires substantial spending on education, training, employment, and support. Hence, the budget deficit equal to 20 percent of GDP, noted above.
Increased production does not offer a solution. Saudi Arabia doesn't have the capacity to increase production sufficiently to reduce the shortfall significantly in any meaningful timeframe. They currently do not have the spare capacity-to make up for the $291 million in export revenue lost in Q1 , 5.4 million more barrels a day would have been necessary at $53.92 a barrel. Of course, such a drastic increase in output would have driven prices even lower. It is doubtful they can increase capacity substantially even in the medium- to long term. They won't be able to spend significantly more than other major national oil companies. First, low prices reduce Aramco's cash flow and therefore its ability to fund investment. Second, the Saudi government likely will increase its draw from this cash flow to fund higher priority national security and domestic security needs.
Third, Saudi refusal to act as price guarantor undercuts the confidence foreigners need to invest in, or loan to, oil projects. What might be attractive at $75 per barrel oil isn't at $50 oil, and even less attractive if the price of oil is thoroughly unpredictable.
Fourth, in terms of political risk, Saudi Arabia with its Gulf allies, Iran, and Iraq, and the Middle East in general, is at the epicenter of global tension, turmoil, and tumult.
Fifth, its influence within OPEC, and therefore its ability to manage OPEC output and prices, is diminished . Their underestimate of the impact of their policy change on prices, their indifference vis-à-vis the financial damage to other OPEC members, and their willingness to take market share at the expense of other OPEC members undercut their credibility within OPEC (particularly since it derived from Saudi willingness to protect the interests of all members (and sometimes to endure disproportionately).

While Saudi financial reserves are substantial ( circa $672 billion in May ), drawing on them is little more than a stop-gap measure. If its major competitors (Russia, Iraq, Iran, and North America) maintain or even increase output (and they have the incentive to do so), prices could stay lower far longer than the Saudis anticipated.

Saudi reserves have decreased some $65 billion since prices started to fall (in November), so ~$100 billion to ~$130 billion at an annual rate. The longer prices stay low, the faster their reserves fall, and, as reserves plummet, the greater the pressure to prioritize spending, to the disadvantage of some Saudis.

Saudi Arabia Caused The Problem, Can It Engineer A Solution?

Saudi officials apparently viewed $90 or even $80 per barrel oil for "one or two years" with equanimity. Can they maintain the composure they have displayed thus far as they incur in a single year the revenue losses they expected to take four years (at $90 oil) or two years (at $80 oil)?

And if they can't-and surely, though they are loath to admit it, they can't - can they engineer a durable increase in prices - i.e., a durable decrease in output? At first glance, it seems impossible. Daily output from Saudi Arabia (10.5 million), and its allies, UAE (2.87), Kuwait (2.8), and Qatar (.67), is roughly equal to the daily output from countries with which it is in conflict, directly or indirectly, Russia (11.2), Iran (2.88), and Iraq (3.75), and therefore have an incentive to take advantage of any unilateral Saudi output concessions.

Yet, in effect, these countries are engaged in the oil equivalent of mutually assured destruction. The sharp drop in oil revenue damages each of these countries economically and financially, while the wars they wage directly and indirectly against each other drain resources from vital domestic projects.

Moreover, given the sensitivity of prices to changes in volume, it is possible, if not likely, that holding output steady or matching a Saudi

[Mar 02, 2019] Saudi Arabia Oil Exports To U.S. Nosedive

Mar 02, 2019 | oilprice.com

OilPrice.com

Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports to U.S. are falling sharply, with shipments so far this month at just 1.6 million barrels, according to data compiled by Bloomberg , versus 5.75 million barrels a year ago.

For the whole of January, Saudi Arabia exported just 2.69 million barrels of crude to the United States. The decline follows Saudi Arabia's decision to cut its crude oil production -- primarily heavy crude grades -- by more than it agreed to at the December OPEC+ meeting as it seeks higher oil prices.

One analyst told Bloomberg oil exports from the Kingdom to U.S. refiners could even fall to zero but that was unlikely to happen.

"We could see Saudi oil imports declining to zero into the U.S. Gulf Coast," Andy Lipow from Lipow Oil Associates said. "OPEC and non-OPEC members feel prices are too low, and they will do what it takes to put the market back in balance."

[Mar 02, 2019] EIA's Data for World and Non-OPEC Oil Production " Peak Oil Barrel

Mar 02, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Energy News x Ignored says: 02/27/2019 at 10:36 am

Big draw -17.9 million barrels including LPG

U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet
Crude oil stocks down -8.6 million barrels
Crude oil exports over 3 million barrels per day again
Crude oil imports lowest since 1996, Bloomberg chart: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D0bD6v5X4AEpx6R.jpg
EIA pdf file: http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf

Oil import by country, Saxo Bank chart https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D0bGhyRXcAAUdDO.jpg
Oilytics chart summary https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D0bG34CWwAAQ1TS.jpg

[Mar 02, 2019] Peak Oil Explained

Mar 02, 2019 | www.zerohedge.com

-- ALIEN -- , 15 hours ago link

Peak Oil Explained

Peak oil is the simplest label for the problem of energy resource depletion, or more specifically, the peak in global oil production.

Oil is a finite, non-renewable resource, one that has powered phenomenal economic and population growth over the last century and a half.

The rate of oil 'production', meaning extraction and refining (currently about 85 million barrels/day), has grown almost every year of the last century.

Once we have used up about half of the original reserves, oil production becomes ever more likely stop growing and begin a terminal decline, hence 'peak'.

The peak in oil production does not signify 'running out of oil', but it does mean the end of cheap oil, as we switch from a buyers' to a sellers' market.

For economies leveraged on ever increasing quantities of cheap oil, the consequences may be dire.

Without significant successful cultural reform, severe economic and social consequences seem inevitable.

Keep reading at...

https://www.resilience.org/primer/

KimAsa , 22 hours ago link

There's no doubt that economies suffer under high energy prices. Recently POTUS acknowledged this when he said oil is too damn high.

Oil producers (frackers) have to be profitable and they just aren't. It seems to unclear what the break even point is for fracking operations in the US, but let's say $50 per barrel goes to production costs. That doesn't leave much room. If oil is selling for less than that on the open market, the frackers are forced to finance their operations. This can't go on. Clearly the cheap oil era has peaked.

[Mar 01, 2019] The next point is that the world is not running out of oil yet, but potential oil reserves are not under western control (most potential reserves are in Africa, Middle East, Ex USSR countries and the Arctic). And that makes for an unstable political future between the west and the rest of the world

Globalization was fueled by cheap oil. end of cheap oil means the end of globalization.
It looks like people started to notice the "gangster capitalism" nature of Trump administration.
If also raises the speculation that the end of "cheap oil" might signify the end of neoliberalism as a social system. At least the "classic" version. Whether Trump inspired the evolution of neoliberalism into "national neoliberalism" improves the survival chances of this social system remains to be seen.
Notable quotes:
"... The whole "political play" going on now seems to be Trump pressuring Saudi Arabia (and OPEC) for the assumable extensive spare capacity that they have. But the problem is, the reality is high oil prices were needed to avoid a deficit in the whole scheme of things. I still guess reality will be hard late 2019/20 as has always been my prediction. ..."
"... To avoid blackmail when it comes to oil the future; sooner or later there is going to be a transition to natural gas (for some decades) and renewable in the West and Asia first. That is how the story goes in my view. The transition to renewable is most likely not going to be smooth, but hurt someone (some part of the population and some countries maybe). Interesting future energy and other resources (e.g lithium, cobalt, nickel and rare magnet ingredients needed for batteries) are going to be even more in focus than today I guess. ..."
Mar 01, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

kolbeinh says: 03/01/2019 at 5:58 pm

I think there are a lot of people that need a delusion check. Because a surplus of oil is advocated by "western trustable sources" against the natural investment circle of the oil industry does not automatically mean that the market balance is under control; it is in fact never going to work.

The whole "political play" going on now seems to be Trump pressuring Saudi Arabia (and OPEC) for the assumable extensive spare capacity that they have. But the problem is, the reality is high oil prices were needed to avoid a deficit in the whole scheme of things. I still guess reality will be hard late 2019/20 as has always been my prediction.

It is difficult to change my mind about the oil market; after all it is not supersonic speed in this mature market. The digitalisation of data gathering (seismic and reservoir control) together with horizontal wells represent probably huge gains and I would guess alone can explain why for example Russia has been doing so well the last decade.

The next point is that the world is not running out of oil yet, but potential oil reserves are not under western control (most potential reserves are in Africa, Middle East, Ex USSR countries and the Arctic). And that makes for an unstable political future between the west and the rest of the world.

To avoid blackmail when it comes to oil the future; sooner or later there is going to be a transition to natural gas (for some decades) and renewable in the West and Asia first. That is how the story goes in my view. The transition to renewable is most likely not going to be smooth, but hurt someone (some part of the population and some countries maybe). Interesting future energy and other resources (e.g lithium, cobalt, nickel and rare magnet ingredients needed for batteries) are going to be even more in focus than today I guess.

[Feb 27, 2019] Wall Street Loses Faith In Shale

Feb 26, 2019 | www.zerohedge.com
Authored by Nick Cunningham via Oilprice.com,

To Wall Street, the shale industry has lost a lot of its allure. A decade's worth of promises have failed to materialize, and Big Finance is cutting some of its ties with smaller shale drillers who have not delivered.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the shale industry only saw $22 billion in new bond and equity deals, down by more than half from 2016 levels, which was a much worse time for the market.

The steep decline in new debt and equity issuance is a sign that major investors are no longer rushing to finance unprofitable shale drilling. It's worth noting that this is a new development. For years Wall Street financed unprofitable drilling, holding out on the promise that rapid production growth would eventually pay off.

Shale wells suffer from precipitous decline rates, with as much as three quarters of a well's total lifetime production coming out in the first year or two. After an initial burst of output, shale wells enter a steep decline.

Of course, this has been known since the beginning and Wall Street has long been fully aware. But major investors hoped that shale companies would scale up, achieve efficiencies and lower breakeven prices to the point that they could turn a profit.

However, that has not been the case. While there are some drillers that are profitable, taken as a whole the industry has been cash flow negative essentially since its beginning in the mid-2000s. For instance, the IEA estimates that the shale industry posted cumulative negative free cash flow of over $200 billion between 2010 and 2014.

The red ink has narrowed since then, but so too has the patience from Wall Street. In 2018, even as oil prices hit their highest levels in years, new debt and equity issuance plunged. That makes it harder for small and even medium-sized companies to finance growth. It's not all that surprising, then, that a wave of spending cuts have cropped up in the last few months.

The WSJ notes that the credit environment also worsened when the market hit its nadir in 2016. Regulators tightened lending requirements, raising the cost of capital for indebted drillers. That, of course, made it even more difficult for these drillers to turn a profit.

To top it off, all of these pesky investors are much more demanding than they used to be, calling on companies to stop spending so much and instead return cash to shareholders. That leaves less capital available to inject back into the ground. Earlier this month Barclays issued a double-downgrade to Occidental Petroleum, lowering it from Overweight to Underweight, citing the company's deficit after dividends at a time when the driller still expected to aim for an aggressive production target.

But some companies are between a rock and a hard place. The WSJ notes that CNX Resources has lost over 20 percent since late January when it announced that it was bowing to investor pressure to cut spending. That led to speculation that the company wouldn't meet its production target. It's a no-win situation for some.

What to make of all of this? As Liam Denning of Bloomberg Opinion put it, "[t] the prevailing financial model for many frackers has hit a wall ." Denning points out that the shale industry has not posted a return on capital above 10 percent any year since 2006, which says is a "feature of shale, not a bug."

According to Rystad Energy, the 33 largest publicly-traded shale companies, accounting for 39 percent of U.S. shale output, will struggle to please shareholders while also trimming debt. "Shale E&Ps struggle to please equity investors and reduce leverage ratios simultaneously. Despite a significant deleverage last year, estimated 2019 free cash flow barely covers operator obligations, putting E&Ps on thin ice as future dividend payments remain in question," Rystad Energy senior analyst Alisa Lukash said in a statement .

Taking a step back, explosive shale growth was only possible because in the context of the post-2008 financial crisis and the response by the Federal Reserve to drop interest rates close to zero, something Bethany McLean argues in her book, "Saudi America." Cheap money financed the debt-fueled shale revolution.

Rystad finds that over half of the total debt pile for the 33 companies it analyzed is due within the next seven years. Ultimately, the industry may have to erase $4 billion in promised dividend payments. "The obvious gap in expected versus likely dividend payments confirms the industry's inability to deliver sustained investors' payback while simultaneously deleveraging," Lukash said.

That doesn't mean that production is going to fall off of a cliff. These days, the shale drilling frenzy is being pushed along increasingly by the oil majors, who have gobbled up smaller companies. ExxonMobil and Chevron, for instance, can take a long view, and put mountains of cash into drilling. Investor pressure is different for these multinationals and, in any event, they are much more profitable than smaller shale companies due to various assets in refining, chemicals, offshore and otherwise conventional production.

As such, production growth will continue for a while longer. But the go-go days are over.

[Feb 26, 2019] Ain Dar, Shedgum, and Uthmaniyah are all in decline and likely in steep decline. Hawiyah and Haradh likely have not yet peaked. However, it is production from Khurais and Manifa and Shaybah that is keeping the decline in Saudi production from becoming obvious

Feb 26, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Ron Patterson x Ignored says: 02/26/2019 at 3:23 pm

My understanding is that there are proved undeveloped reserves, those require new wells.

Dennis, I need to know just how you arrived at this understanding? It is my understanding that these are infill wells. The word "infill" implies developed, not undeveloped.

infill drilling Bold mine.

1. n. [Enhanced Oil Recovery]
The addition of wells in a field that decreases average well spacing. This practice both accelerates expected recovery and increases estimated ultimate recovery in heterogeneous reservoirs by improving the continuity between injectors and producers. As well spacing is decreased, the shifting well patterns alter the formation-fluid flow paths and increase sweep to areas where greater hydrocarbon saturations exist.

Infill drilling does increase the ultimate recovery as it gets gaps near the top of the reservoir that otherwise might be missed. But mostly it just pulls the oil out faster. That is most of the oil recovered by infill drilling is not oil that would otherwise be missed.

There are no longer any undeveloped fields in Saudi Arabia. These wells are in the very well developed Ghawar, and I assume the field to the west is Khurais. Both fields are not just developed, but overly developed. They have been doing infill drilling in Ghawar for almost two decades. I assume these new Ghawar wells will be in the very southern two fields.

Survivalist x Ignored says: 02/26/2019 at 12:23 pm
From what I understand it was also stated by Schlumberger that they are in-fill (infill?) wells Just sticking more straws in an almost empty bucket. It seems to me that that will bring forward future production(to sustain a plateau) and the eventual decline rate in the future will necessarily be steeper, like a bell curve vs a Seneca Cliff type curve.

I would suggest infill drilling is a good indicator of what KSA feels it's oil development priorities are. One could make an assumption about why they feel that way. I assume it's because they don't have anything better to do with the drilling rigs.

Baggen x Ignored says: 02/26/2019 at 12:32 pm
Yes it was stated they were infill wells and i dont know if it was a slip but from memory MD? Also said purpose was to mitigate decline rates.
islandboy x Ignored says: 02/26/2019 at 9:54 am
Ron, what is your opinion on Saudi Arabia? A I have said here before, I think that the Ghawar could water out at any time, reducing Saudi output by somewhere in the region of 3 mbpd in short order. It could happen tomorrow, next week, next year, who (outside of Aramco) knows?
Ron Patterson x Ignored says: 02/26/2019 at 10:40 am
Islandboy, Ghawar is not one field, it is five fields. From north to south there is Ain Dar, Shedgum, Uthmaniyah, Hawiyah and Haradh. Ghawar was developed from north to south.

Ghawar Oil Field

Ghawar is currently estimated to account for about six percent of the world's total daily crude oil output. The field's production peaked at 5.7million barrels per day in 1981 and later slipped below the five million mark. The development of the southern Hawiyah and Haradh areas during 1994 and 1996, however, raised the production to five million barrels per day again.

Ain Dar, Shedgum, and Uthmaniyah are all in decline and likely in steep decline. Hawiyah and Haradh likely have not yet peaked. However, it is production from Khurais and Manifa and Shaybah that is keeping the decline in Saudi production from becoming obvious. All other fields, other than the bottom two Ghawar fields, and these three latest developed fields, are in steep decline.

Khurais and Manifa were in mothballs for decades. Then they were brought on line, at great expense, to counter the decline in all the other super-giant fields. But the decline in these old super-giants is getting steeper.

[Feb 26, 2019] Modern civilization consumes so much hydrocarbons that their natural substitutes are not able to compensate for this extinction

Feb 26, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Opritov Alexander x Ignored says: 02/26/2019 at 6:51 am

Interesting, New, Informative
article
Alexey Evgenievich Anpilogov
(Алексей Евгеньевич Анпилогов):
http://zavtra.ru/blogs/novie_tyomnie_veka?fbclid=IwAR2s559y2EhRioWaBUv4X-YW8AzbQFdK1bzvAE1pFzxUHNdFGmpXnKzkm3A
Start:
New "Dark Ages"?
human energy future

Alexey Anpilogov

In the third decade of the XXI century, which is about to come, one of the main problems facing humanity, again, as in the 60s, will be its energy supply, as well as the search for the main "energy carrier of the future."

The three whales that the world's energy industry today holds: oil, natural gas and coal are, by their nature, non-renewable sources of energy. True, with regard to oil and gas, this thesis is actively debated at the academic level, but for practical purposes it is indisputable: modern civilization consumes so much hydrocarbons that their natural substitution, if it exists, is not able to compensate for this exemption. The energy sources mentioned above in 2017 accounted for about 81% of world primary energy production, and they still define the image of our modern industrial world, while all renewable energy sources provide only about 14% of primary energy production, and about 5% The balance comes from nuclear energy (International Energy Agency, 2017).

At the same time, the situation with renewable sources is not at all as rosy as it may seem at first glance: out of 14% of renewable sources, 10% is the energy from burning wood and biomass, and 2.5% is hydropower. At the same time, the "fashionable" in the last decade, and having received at the same time gigantic, almost trillion-dollar investments in solar and wind energy projects, are not as high as 2% in the overall balance of the production of primary energy. At the same time, it is not even about the absolute figures for the introduction of new capacities of green energy, which may seem impressive, but about the exponential dynamics of the relationship between "oil-coal-gas" and "green" in the long term. After all, a decade ago, in 2008, the world balance of power generation looked like this: 78% were oil, natural gas and coal, 5% were atomic energy, 3% were hydropower, about 13.5% were wood and biomass, and 0, 5% produced wind and solar energy. Surprisingly, over the past ten years, the transition from "wood and straw" to the energy of oil, natural gas and coal, which occurred naturally, turned out to be two and a half times more significant for the global energy balance than the development of "green" energy technologies.

The phenomenon of such meager growth of "green" energy is interesting in itself: for the first time the capitalist mode of production, in which investments in fixed assets imply quick returns in the form of profits, gives an obvious, albeit programmed failure. Its essence becomes clear if we take into account in the picture the "quiet" transition of the world from "firewood and straw" to oil, gas and coal, which lasted throughout the decade of 2008–2018. This process, which no one financed in a targeted manner or advertised in the world media or Western scientific publications, went forward thanks to economic expediency. At the same time, the planting of green energy was accompanied not only by a powerful public relations campaign and trillions of financing, but also forced almost all countries to accept special, non-economic overpriced tariffs for the purchase of green energy in order to somehow force capital to finance unprofitable production. energy with wind turbines and solar panels.
World energy: a general view

Several reputable organizations are engaged in the problem of the global energy balance. These include the United States Department of Energy (DOE), the International Energy Agency (IEA), located in Paris, and the well-known oil company BP (ex-British Petroleum). Each of these organizations publishes annual reports on the situation in the global energy industry and the prospects for its development. These reports are compiled on the basis of an analysis of the mass of primary information, often of an incomplete and contradictory nature. Nevertheless, due to a certain averaging of all the initial data, the annual reports of these organizations quite fully and clearly reflect the overall world dynamics. In this article, in order to bring the data to one standard, we will rely on the annual reports of BP, unless otherwise explicitly stated in the text.

In accordance with the latest available BP report, global energy consumption reached 13,511 million tons of oil equivalent in 2017 (TNE, eng. "Tonne of oil equivalent", TOE). At the same time, over the decade between 2007 and 2017, world primary energy consumption grew by an average of 1.5%. That is, the dynamics of energy consumption correlate well with the observed growth rates of the global economy over the same period – an average of 3.2% per year (World Bank and IMF, 2018).

The fluctuations of this second parameter, associated with economic crises and recessions observed in the period under review, make it possible to evaluate the contribution of the notorious "energy efficiency" to the global growth in demand

yves x Ignored says: 02/26/2019 at 7:44 am
"this thesis is actively debated at the academic level".

What does that hint to? Abiotic oil?

Ron Patterson x Ignored says: 02/26/2019 at 8:17 am
No, there does not even remotely a hint of abiotic oil. Read the last two paragraphs again. That is what it hints to. An average growth of 1.5% in energy consumption and a growth of 3.2% in the global economy has been enabled by a continual growth in energy efficiency. This cannot possibly continue, especially the 3.2% growth in global economy. When the global economy does not grow it receeds. This is called a recession.

[Feb 26, 2019] Looks like a glut of condensates has developed and is getting worse

Feb 26, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

nikbez x Ignored says: 02/25/2019 at 6:10 pm

Looks like a glut of condensates has developed and is getting worse.

Another thing to ponder about shale oil: falling capex, but solid production growth And that's after three bad years (2015, 2016 and 2017) and low current prices.

Do the US shale oil producers want to establish some kind of "world record" and then "The last one out please turn off the lights."

How can such a miracle happen?

The US oil production is really Alice in Wonderland phenomenon.

[Feb 26, 2019] EIA's Data for World and Non-OPEC Oil Production " Peak Oil Barrel

Feb 26, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

nikbez x Ignored says: 02/25/2019 at 11:40 pm

Ron,

> It is very likely that Russia+ Canada will peak within the next two years.

I agree that Russia is close to its peak. But, at the same time, Russia has a huge Arctic territory with a very low density of population (due to harsh conditions), which probably is not explored that well. Also with their gas reserves, they might be able to increase the condensate production considerably, repeating the USA path.

The other possibility is Russia sliding in chaos after Putin retirement, as there is no any politician of equal caliber able to pick up the helm among the current elite. And there will be "external helpers" like after Brezhnev's death who will try to get some comprador at the top. Also, the leadership change historically is a huge problem in Russia.

See https://www.quora.com/What-will-happen-after-Vladimir-Putin-steps-down-or-passes-away . This Igor Markov sounds like a typical neoliberal propagandist salivating to plunder Russia the second time as Harvard mafia did in the past, but the problem does exist.

Russia is a kind of 'A riddle wrapped up in an enigma.' Everybody wrote Russia off in late 90th. It is difficult to make predictions about Russia.

If I remember correctly, Fernando Leanme used to work at Russia in the past, and he might share his thoughts about this issue.

What is interesting is that due to the use of natural gas in transport, Russia does not consume that much oil internally, which makes an important difference with KSA.

Fernando Leanme x Ignored says: 02/26/2019 at 7:26 am
Increasing Russia's Arctic production is feasible, but this will take many years, and I don't think it can offset decline to make much of a difference. Yamal has huge gas condensate reservoirs located under the Cenomanian, but they need many more wells. I believe they can produce 1 mmbopd of condensate, but that would take 15 to 20 years.

I believe Putin is smart enough to set up a successful replacement, and the Russian elite will also be keen on a smooth transition because they think they are under attack (yes, they are convinced the USA, Germany, France and others are very keen on making them submit).

Opritov Alexander x Ignored says: 02/26/2019 at 4:25 pm
1.Russians are not very happy with Putin
2. Most Russians will support him in any circumstances. This is a principle. Otherwise, chaos.
3.95% Rosiyan has a negative attitude towards liberals, as well as to "democratic values" (this is a declaration that has no common with reality)
4.Most Russians dissatisfied with property inequality that appeared in the last 25 years
5. The greatest dissatisfaction is the destruction of industry. The lack of productive labor. (We live with the income of hydrocarbons, the country-gas station). The consequence of globalism.
ProPoly x Ignored says: 02/26/2019 at 8:52 am
Russia would have declined by now without huge, fracking like CapEx in existing fields. This was from one year ago.

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2017/12/19/rosneft-board-agrees-on-samotlor-development-program

>>>
During 2016-2017 Rosneft and the Russian government have been elaborating in details additional options for the development of unique Samotlor field. As a result a joint decision was made for an investment incentive in the form of an annual mineral extraction tax reduction of RUB 35 billion during 10 years.

The Board has confirmed the Company's obligations to drill over 2,400 wells during 2018-2027 that would provide additional output in the amount of more than 50 mtoe. The extended Samotlor development program would result in an increase of tax liabilities to budgets of all administrative levels to RUB 1.7 trln. The investment incentives should give new momentum to the development of one of the largest fields in the country and bring significant multiplicative effect for Russian economy.
<<<

2,400 wells in a decade is 240 a year. This article is discussing just Samotlor.

A conventional field drilling a well more often than once every two days. Quite a bit more than that I imagine in the good time of the year with the swings in Siberian weather conditions.

That's nuts. It's also going to shark fin at some point.

Baggen x Ignored says: 02/26/2019 at 10:32 am
Interesting, Schlumberger said during q&a in their q3 they they had a contract for 400 wells 2019-2021 for the saudis, it was ghawar and one neighbouring field to the west that i cant remember name of that all 400 wells were going into. They were also quite honest about its purpose that it was to mitigate declines.

So that makes it pretty much exactly 50% of the russian drill rate per day in samotlor you mention abowe.

I asked in previous thread why that many wells were needed if we are to believe saudis 200gb+ of world class reserves remaining. In my opinion i didn't get any answer to that question.

Watcher x Ignored says: 02/26/2019 at 1:26 pm
Somebody way up above said because Russia uses natgas for transport they don't consume much oil.

Gas consumption growth last year was 1.3% Oil consumption growth was 1%.

Russian car sales grew 18% last year after a double digit gain the previous year. Lada dominates their sales, and as best I can see they are all petrol fueled. Hyundai and Kia are a substantial presence as well, but I see no evidence in general of natgas dominating transport.

American model sales seem at best obscure. It's Lada, Hyundai, Kia, BMW, VW.

ProPoly x Ignored says: 02/26/2019 at 2:52 pm
The statement about Russia using natural gas heavily for transport is simply inaccurate. Russia "only" consumes 3.2 million barrels per day of oil. But that's more because the country does not have anywhere near the continent-wide car infrastructure and other wealthy sprawl the United States built out.
Watcher x Ignored says: 02/26/2019 at 3:36 pm
Russia per capita oil consumption is 0.0229 barrels/person/day. This is about 1/3 US consumption rate. It's higher than most countries.

[Feb 25, 2019] Through the Looking Glass NGLs, Condensates and Pentanes Part 1 US versus the World by Al Troner

May 15, 2013 | rbnenergy.com
By Al Troner, President Asia Pacific Energy Consulting (APEC)

U.S. production of field (lease) condensates is growing like crazy, especially in the Eagle Ford. There is way too much of this material for it to be absorbed into traditional crude blending markets. At the same time the production of plant condensate, a.k.a. natural gasoline, is also increasing along with the yield of all other products from natural gas processing plants. A glut of condensates has developed and is getting worse. Clearly this is an opportunity for new market development, and the bizdev community is hard at work coming up with concepts, projects and proposals to use all of this material in the U.S. and in export markets. But there is a problem. Condensate markets in different geographies seem to have little in common with each other. It's like walking through the looking glass. One term can have several meanings. One meaning can be ascribed to several terms. Today we launch a RBN blog series to make sense of it all.

First, let's consider a fundamental question. Are condensates in the natural gas liquids (NGL) family? Like everything about this topic, it depends. In U.S. usage, a "plant condensate" is the equivalent of products classified as "pentanes+" and natural gasoline, and these are considered NGLs. On the other hand, U.S. usage typically does not consider "field or lease condensate" as an NGL, instead classifying these commodities as crude oil. There are a variety of reasons for this distinction in the U.S. market, some rational some not so rational that we will explore a little later in this blog.

However, no such distinction exists in international markets, which consider both plant and field condensates the same thing, with both classified as natural gas liquids – since they are both liquids that come from natural gas. Of course, to further confuse things, international markets have their own labeling problems, calling some of these products "naphthas", when any refiner will tell you that term ought to be reserved for products that have been through a crude distillation tower. Are you starting to get a sense for the problem? Because all of these terms are so mixed, mingled and intertwined, the only thing we can do is "Begin at the beginning" as Alice was told in Wonderland -- and that is with the general category of products called natural gas liquids – NGLs.

NGLs, LPGs and Purity Products

NGLs seem to exist in the twilight zone between black oil, or crude, the basis of all petroleum products, and natural gas (methane) the low carbon footprint, suddenly abundant (in the U.S.) fuel source. NGLs are neither here nor there – they possess, to differing extents, characteristics of both oil and gas and have values and market drivers both similar to and distinctly separate from oil and gas.

Yet it would appear that the key factor that unites all NGLs is that they are derived from gas and that most NGLs need special containment to remain liquids. Then, "What is in a name?"

"When I use a word," Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean -- neither more nor less." "The question is," said Alice, "whether you can make words mean so many different things."

(Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking Glass, Chapter 6 )

In fact, NGLs carry ambiguity in their very name. Ethane, propane, normal butane, isobutane and (as the product is commonly called in the U.S.), natural gasoline are all found in natural gas, but are liquid hydrocarbon molecules suspended within gas. This is equally true for lease condensates, hence the classification of lease condensates as NGLs in international markets. In this survey of the products alternatively called by names such as NGLs, condensates, pentanes plus and various other monikers, we will explore the wide range of terms used to label these products and how, at times, these different labels define each NGL somewhat differently.

The products we call crude oil and natural gas are base materials – oil is the precursor of petroleum products; gas is primarily valued on its ability to create heat, i.e. calorific value. NGLs are many things simultaneously and can be defined as end-products; petrochemical feedstocks or semi-finished intermediates used to create finished oil products. This very variability - this wide range of flexibility of NGL utilization - leads to much uncertainty. To avoid confusion, it is important to define the terms used and to understand how US market terminology and definitions differ from those abroad.

Note that most NGLs originate from gas production, whether associated with crude or solely on its own non-associated gas production. When NGLs are contained within a gas stream, it is said that they are in "vapor phase".

All natural gas contains some NGLs. Sometimes there are enough NGLs to be recovered economically, sometimes not. Sometimes NGLs must be removed (whether economic or not) for the 'residue' natural gas to meet BTU and other specifications for the take-away natural gas pipeline or LNG liquefaction facility. Regardless, for natural gas produced at the wellhead to be sold and transported in pipeline systems, various impurities like sulfur and water must be removed. When required by downstream specifications, or economically advantageous or both, the NGLs are separated from the gas in a natural gas processing plant. The mixed stream or Y-grade NGLs are then transported to a fractionator for separation into purity products. That fractionator may be at the processing plant location, but in the U.S. is usually some distance away. As discussed on many occasions in RBN blogs, by far the largest NGL fractionation center in the U.S. is at Mont Belvieu, Texas.

The table below from the Baker Institute shows NGL products, their characteristics and their markets.

... ... ...

Source: Baker Institute (Click to Enlarge)

Condensates, Pentanes Plus and Natural Gasoline

Now that we've cleared up NGLs, we need to turn to the far more convoluted world of condensates, and natural gasoline. But that's not the only labels we need to include. There is also naphtha, Pentanes Plus and even A-180. Each of these terms may have a slightly different meaning in different markets.

An Example of the Name Game: Pentanes Plus . For example, Pentanes Plus, as defined in the United Arab Emirates (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, or ADNOC) produces a condensate stripped directly from the gas stream. It is a light, highly paraffinic naphtha equivalent and therefore best suited for ethylene cracking. It excludes ethane and LPG and is sold as a naphtha grade. So, this material is called pentane, which is a condensate that is sold as paraffinic naphtha. Got it?

And there still is another Pentanes Plus, this one defined by the Energy Information Agency (EIA), a unit of the US Department of Energy (DOE). EIA describes Pentanes as "a mixture of hydrocarbons, mostly pentanes and heavier, extracted from natural gas. (It) includes iso-pentane, natural gasoline, and plant condensate." Note that it excludes lease condensate, which EIA inconveniently lumps into their crude oil production statistics. Obviously ADNOC's "Pentanes Plus" is not the same stuff as EIA's Pentanes Plus.

To access the remainder of Through the Looking Glass: NGLs, Condensates and Pentanes Part 1 – U.S. versus the World you must be logged as a RBN Backstage Pass™ subscriber.

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Related Content

[Feb 22, 2019] An interesting case of self-sufficientcy: the USA is a net importer of around 4 million barrels of oil per day.

Feb 22, 2019 | www.unz.com

Carlton Meyer , says: • Website February 21, 2019 at 7:15 pm GMT

@Shouting Thomas Wrong, the USA is a net importer of around 4 million barrels of oil per day.

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727&t=6

Here is some background on that hoax you repeated.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/12/09/no-the-u-s-is-not-a-net-exporter-of-crude-oil/#1b2232814ac1

Fracking has helped the USA boost oil production, but that is pressuring to get oil out of older wells. Once those have been sucked dry, we'll need to import lots more. You read news about occasional big new discoveries in the USA, but read the details to see that each amounts only to a few days of oil consumption in the USA.

The world still runs on oil and the USA wants to control it all. If you doubt the importance, look at a freeway or airport or seaport to see oil at work.

[Feb 22, 2019] Saudi crude oil closing stocks fell again by 2.84 million barrels to nearly 10-years low of 205.38.

Feb 22, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Energy News x Ignored says: 02/18/2019 at 7:32 am

Saudi crude oil closing stocks fell again by 2.84 million barrels to nearly 10-years low of 205.38.
JODI's own chart: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dzr_iVGWoAEVkm7.png
Oilytics chart https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzsB3kIWsAArlyG.jpg
Ron Patterson x Ignored says: 02/18/2019 at 8:01 am
Why on earth would Saudi stocks be falling at such a rate? If Saudi is concerned about low oil prices, they do not need to cut production, they only need to cut exports.

Saudi has 266 billion barrels of oil in the ground, and in the dead of winter, their lowest crude burn season, their stocks are falling? Something just don't add up here.

Greenbub x Ignored says: 02/18/2019 at 5:31 pm
Giovanni Staunovo
🛢
‏ @staunovo

Saudi Crude Exports Slump to 6.2M B/D in 1H February: Kpler
Shipments tumble by 1.34m b/d in 1H February, compared with same period in January, consultant says in report.
BBG #OOTT

Jeff x Ignored says: 02/18/2019 at 8:38 am
Are there any (public) estimates of how much SA produce vs. draw from inventory to cover their exports or are all these charts based on their own reported figures?

There are several issues with the reported numbers that appears odd to me.

Ron Patterson x Ignored says: 02/18/2019 at 8:50 am
I found, back when I was reporting JODI data, that for OPEC, they used the "direct communication" data rather than the "secondary sources" data for their OPEC production data. But that was several years ago.
Energy News x Ignored says: 02/18/2019 at 9:02 am
It's just their own reported figures. I know that the secondary sources quoted in OPEC MOMR use tanker tracking and reported refinery runs to check OPEC production but beyond that I don't know.
Dennis Coyne x Ignored says: 02/18/2019 at 6:46 pm
Robert Rapier's newest article

Discussion Of Saudi Arabia's Oil Reserves Provokes Some Emotional Responses

I find his logic impeccable.

In summary, while I have not proven that Saudi has 270 billion barrels of proved oil reserves, I think the evidence points in that direction. And if you accept a much lower number, you essentially accept that there is a vast conspiracy involved in hiding the real numbers.

An old post by me, maybe I got the idea from Robert Rapier. I hadn't realized he had written something on this at the time. (If so I apologize to Mr. Rapier for the lack of citation.)

http://peakoilbarrel.com/us-oil-reserve-growth-2/

dclonghorn x Ignored says: 02/18/2019 at 9:46 pm
I don't find Mr. Rapier's logic even close to impeccable.

Mr Rapier does not address a number of issues which concern Saudi reserves in his article. For instance, KSA reserves are known to consist mostly of a relatively small number of giant fields, as compared to the USA which has a much larger geographic area, many small fields and perhaps close to a million wells drilled.

In KSA most of its oil resources are concentrated in about a fifth of its 830,000 square mile geographic area. It has conducted a systematic and thorough search using seismic, drilling and other tools to explore for other resources. I believe their best undeveloped findings have been deeper gas in the known oily areas. The Shaybah oil field, said to be the last of the elephants, was discovered in 1968. Remote and relatively expensive, it was not developed until 1998. Likewise, the development of Ghawar also proceeded slowly, with the last southern parts not being developed until around 2000.

The manner in which the country's resources have been developed has not been addressed. In the USA every promoter with access to OPM has drilled, including many wells of questionable economics. Would the LTO currently developing here be brought on at all, or very slowly anywhere else? Is LTO really economic at today's prices?

In KSA the government owned oil company has systematically developed their resources, and by most accounts they have been thorough, methodical, and have used cutting edge technology. In the early 2000's they combined advanced seismic, drilling, and completion technologies to create multi-lateral super wells which have been used to develop Shaybah as well as to rejuvenate many older worn out fields such as Abqaiq. These super wells have allowed KSA to maintain its massive production but when these traps have been depleted there is not likely to be an encore.

The nature of the giant Saudi fields is different from the USA. Ghawar has been described as the perfect trap. With high perm and porosity KSA expects to produce a large percentage of original oil in place. The old reserve reports Rapier referenced also expected to recover high percentages of original oil. Technology has certainly increased the amount of oil KSA will recover but I believe they are looking at increasing recovery by a few, maybe up to 10 percentage points in each field. Their best result, is pulling forward production with their super wells, not creating recoverable oil from resources such as shale which were previously considered uneconomic.

Rig counts in KSA were around 10 for much of the 90's. They have increased sharply since with the push to maintain their production around 10 million bpd. Current levels of around 130 rigs seem needed to maintain 10, not 25.

Of course, the underlying problem comparing USA reserves with KSA is the geology, and I am not a geologist, but my understanding is that the persian gulf area is unique and not comparable to USA.

Ron Patterson x Ignored says: 02/19/2019 at 7:06 am
Thanks dclonghorn. I find your logic impeccable.
shallow sand x Ignored says: 02/19/2019 at 8:19 am
Good post dc.

EIA used to publish stats regarding number of US oil wells, gas wells and average TD per well.

I guess there are over one million active oil/gas wells in US, including Alaska and GOM. There are over 100K "shale wells already and US is adding 10K +/- per year.

Schlumberger had a graphic awhile back comparing the drilling intensity of the US to both Russian and the Middle East. Was an eye opener.

dclonghorn x Ignored says: 02/19/2019 at 10:37 am
Thanks for the kind comments Ron and Shallow.

After reviewing recent comments, I see an additional area to address, that of the D&M reserve review. As one who used to do audits, I can tell you that auditors rely heavily on management to present them with a basis for their opinion. Auditors cannot review everything, and most are familiar with some of the noted failures such as Enron and Billie Sol Estes.

One of the old standard auditor jokes goes like this.

A prospective client interviews three firms and asks each the same question: What is 2 plus 2.
First firm answer is : We pride ourselves on our expertise, the answer is 4. They do not get the job.
Second firm: We would like to research this question and provide you with a suitable answer. No job.
Third firm: What did you have in mind? Job!

A bigger question is why would KSA want to overstate its reserves. At its face value, the answer is they would not, lower reserves should lead to higher prices realized from their oil. I don't think it is that simple. The Saudi regime is an oppressive dictatorship that oddly relies on extensive welfare type payments to maintain power. They do have a national interest in overstating their reserves, its sort of an Emperor's new clothes thing.

Ron Patterson x Ignored says: 02/18/2019 at 10:51 pm
And if you accept a much lower number, you essentially accept that there is a vast conspiracy involved in hiding the real numbers.

That sentence is total nonsense. In 1980 ARAMCO suggested that quotas would be allocated on the amount of proven reserves each country has. That is, the greater their proven reserves, the higher their quota would be. Within the next few years, every OPEC nation started increasing their "proven reserves" with a pencil. And their reserves just kept growing and growing and growing. They never did allocate quotas based on proven reserves, but that did not deter any of them from continually increasing their numbers.

But it is just downright silly to suggest that there is a conspiracy to hide their true reserves. Of course their true reserves, like those of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE are closely garded secret while their published reserves are published everywhere. But no conspiracy is needed to keep their true reserves a secret. All they have to do is deny all other published numbers. Besides, most OPEC officials really believe those numbers. It is not really hard to believe something you really desire to believe.

I find it astonishing that you Dennis, or Robert, thinks a conspiracy is needed to claim those absurded numbers. No, no, no. It's just a gross exaggeration, nothing more. A gross exaggeration does not require a conspiracy and it is just absurd to claim it does.

Tony Eriksen x Ignored says: 02/19/2019 at 2:44 am
Until Saudi oil reserves are independently audited their remaining crude oil reserves cannot be verified.
This is recent audit but until the entire audit is released, maybe in an IPO prospectus, there remains uncertainty.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-09/saudis-raise-oil-reserves-estimate-ahead-of-aramco-s-planned-ipo
http://tradearabia.com/news/OGN_349583.html

Saudi Arabia published the first audit of its vast oil reserves since it nationalized its energy industry about 40 years ago, saying its reserves total 268.5 billion, slightly more than the 266.3 billion figure that the government published previously.

The audit, conducted by Dallas-based consultant DeGolyer & MacNaughton Corp., is the first since Riyadh fully nationalized Saudi Aramco between 1976 and 1980, and it comes as the kingdom tries to generate interest in Aramco ahead of a potential initial public offering.

"This certification underscores why every barrel we produce is the most profitable in the world, and why we believe Saudi Aramco is the world's most valuable company and indeed the world's most important," Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said in a statement posted on the state news agency's website.

Tony Eriksen x Ignored says: 02/19/2019 at 3:04 am
This is a link from DeGolyer & MacNaughton about their audit on Saudi oil reserves. There is no field by field split of the reserves or the quality – heavy, light, sweet etc
Feb 12, 2019
https://www.demac.com/dm-confirms-independent-assessment-of-reserves-in-saudi-arabia-for-the-saudi-arabian-oil-company/
DeGolyer and MacNaughton is pleased to acknowledge the recent completion of the first contemporary independent assessment of reserves in Saudi Arabia for the Saudi Arabian Oil Company. The study encompassed a highly detailed independent analysis of a massive dataset and onsite review. More than 60 geophysicists, petrophysicists, geologists, simulation engineers, reserves engineering specialists, and economists were involved in the 30-month effort.
In 1943, one of our founders, Everette DeGolyer, surveyed the Middle East and Persian Gulf area as part of the war effort. Mr. DeGolyer was quoted at the time as declaring, "The oil in this region is the greatest single prize in all history." At the time of this survey, Mr. DeGolyer's estimates and predictions that the Middle East would become the center of the world's oil production were considered by some to be massive exaggerations, but his work has since been found to be quite conservative. DeGolyer and MacNaughton's work in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia continues Mr. DeGolyer's legacy of knowledge and integrity, and the firm remains at the forefront of the petroleum consulting services industry.

Below is a compilation of article links where you can find further information regarding our most recent work in Saudi Arabia. At this time, DeGolyer and MacNaughton will make no further comments on this extensive project.

This link had some more detail
https://www.reuters.com/article/saudi-oil-reserves/update-3-saudi-arabia-announces-rise-in-oil-reserves-after-external-audit-idUSL8N1Z93WO
The consultant evaluated 54 major oil reservoirs operated by Aramco, out of 368 in its portfolio. In DeGolyer's view, these contained 213.1 billion barrels of proved oil reserves, compared to 210.9 billion as estimated internally by Aramco.

Dennis Coyne x Ignored says: 02/19/2019 at 8:46 am
Thanks Tony.
Watcher x Ignored says: 02/20/2019 at 3:15 am
More than 60 geophysicists, petrophysicists, geologists, simulation engineers, reserves engineering specialists, and economists were involved in the 30-month effort.

That's a lot of doods. Who funded it?

Dennis Coyne x Ignored says: 02/21/2019 at 9:54 am
Watcher,

All audits are paid for, so I guess that means we cannot believe any of them.

A reputable firm does not lie when they make these evaluations, they make their best estimate as their reputation for honesty is the core of their business.

Watcher x Ignored says: 02/21/2019 at 12:22 pm
Of course.

Just like tobacco danger audits funded by the tobacco industry were entirely credible because the analyzing firms had to be so very careful about their reputation.

I also recall the brain cancer/cellphone linkage study was funded by Motorola and challenging it on that basis never really got traction.

Eulenspiegel x Ignored says: 02/21/2019 at 3:33 am
The fishy things are the more side themes:

Why do they want to produce from the neutral zone – not really necessary the next 50 years with that reserves?

Why do they produce the expensive off shore fields? They could wait for a few decades more before spending this money.

Normally, a tapped giant field produces for 50-60 years – so with an original 4-500 GB ressources(this survey + everything they produced already) they should have capacity for up to 20 or 25 mb / day. They have erverything tapped they have, not some giant fields untapped as reserve.

Russia produces 11 mb/day from reserves of round about 100GB.

dclonghorn x Ignored says: 02/21/2019 at 2:07 pm
Good points Eulen.
Baggen x Ignored says: 02/21/2019 at 3:22 pm
Exactly, why would you develop more expensive and complicated offshore if you have "unlimited" resources left in cheap and easily accessible already developed areas?

Dont they need that money to pave the streets with gold, balance the budget, keep people happy? What king or politician would make that desicion? Lets develop the more expensive stuff we dont need so i have less money to throw around.. makes sense?

Schlumberger mentioned in their q3 in the q&a they had contact for drilling 400 infill wells for saudi during the next 3 years think starting year was 2019. Why is that needed if these unlimited reserves are there?

Or should we look at it the different way, 400 new holes unlocks these reserves or perhaps even more future reserves?

[Feb 22, 2019] The Saudis have had 270B barrels of oil since the 80s even though they've been producing 3-4B/yr. An independent audit found, miraculously, that they still have 270B barrels of oil.

Feb 22, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Stephen Hren: 02/21/2019 at 9:37 am

The Saudis have had 270B barrels of oil since the 80s even though they've been producing 3-4B/yr. An independent audit found, miraculously, that they still have 270B barrels of oil. As a small business owner I can tell you that my books can be audited and deemed in good order, and the auditor will never have gone back in the warehouse to see if there is actually any of the stock that I have listed in the books. The Saudis will have 270B barrels of oil, until, one day, they have none.
Eulenspiegel: 02/21/2019 at 10:38 am
It's the 270 GB that implies they are lying – how much is unknown.

Reserve growth and production never is hand in hand – it would be slowly decrease to 200 during the 90s, increase to 300 with higher oil prices for reclassifying marginal fields or introduction of new recovery technic, and reducing again.

Or a bump up with the discovery of a new field (this is always good for propaganda reasons).

Instead it was constant 270 over almost 40 years – not believable. And the audit was too near at this 270 – a 300 or a 250 would have been more believable.

So we still know nothing yet – perhaps it's 150, perhaps even 300.

[Feb 22, 2019] My calculations of Saudi reserves came to around 70-74 bb of remaining reserves

Feb 22, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Ron Patterson x Ignored says: 02/21/2019 at 2:52 pm

Mamdouh G Salameh's Response to Robert Rapier's article

Jeffrey J. Brown
9:35 AM

From Oilprice.com (Dr Mamdouh G Salameh):

In a paper titled:"Saudi Proven Crude Oil Reserves: The Myth & the Reality Revisited" I gave at the 10th IAEE European Energy Conference in Vienna, 7-10 September 2009, I reached the conclusion that Saudi proven crude oil reserves actually range from 90-125 billion barrels (bb) and not the 264 bb the Saudis were claiming then. That was 2009.

However, there has recently been claims that an independent audit has put Aramco's Oil Reserves at $270 billion Barrels". It transpired that the audit was neither independent nor unbiased since some of the companies that conducted the audit (DeGolyer, MacNaughton, and Baker Hughes' Gaffney, Cline, and Associates) have or have had service contracts with Saudi Aramco, so it can't truly be classified as an independent audit.

Still, I decided to make a new estimate of Saudi proven reserves by adding Saudi production since the discovery of oil in 1938 till now (for which we have figures) and then deducting them from Saudi claimed proven reserves along with an annual depletion rate of Saudi aging fields averaging 5%-7% for the same period. My calculations came to around 70-74 bb of remaining reserves compared with the figure in 2009 allowing for production since 2009.

The fact that Saudi Arabia's proven reserves remained virtually constant year after year despite sizeable annual production and a lack of major new discoveries since 1965 is due to the Saudis increasing the oil recovery factor (R/F) and the oil initially in place (OIIP) to offset the annual production. The Saudis have been declaring an R/F of 52% or even higher when the global average is 34%-35%. They have also increased the OIIP from 700 bb to 900 bb on the basis of Saudi Aramco projecting new discoveries which are yet to be discovered.

Venezuela does have the world's largest proven reserves estimated at 303 bb and growing. However, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimates that there may be more than 513 bb of extra-heavy crude oil and bitumen deposits in Venezuela's Orinoco belt region. The fact that the bulk of the reserves consists of extra-heavy oil doesn't detract from the fact that they are proven and have been refined in Venezuela's own refineries in Texas and sold in the United States as gasoline and diesel. Moreover, it is virtually no different from Canada's tar sand oil.

Your argument that the rise of oil prices to triple digits has made Venezuela's extra heavy oil economical to produce applies also to Canada's tar sand oil and US shale oil (though shale oil is light).

Your argument that Saudi barrels were deemed to be economical to produce even before oil prices spiked is a valid one but it misses the point about reserves. Irrespective of whether crude oil reserves consist of light or medium or heavy or extra-heavy crude, once they are proven they are all categorized as oil reserves. Of course, cost of production is a very important factor in the economics of oil and the profitability of production. In this regard, the production of Venezuela's extra-heavy oil at current prices is not different from an economic point of view from US shale oil production or Canadian tar sand oil production.

Finally, the claimed audit about Saudi reserves smacks of a blatant attempt by Saudi Aramco abetted by foreign oil companies which are beneficiaries of Saudi Aramco largess to resurrect the IPO of Saudi Aramco. The IPO is dead and buried. We now know that the withdrawal of the IPO was because of risk of American litigation related to the 9/11 destruction of the World Trade Centre in New York and question marks about the true size of Saudi proven oil reserves. However, when Saudi King Salman called off the IPO, he justified his decision by saying that he didn't want to expose Saudi Aramco's finances or reserves to be scrutiny. His words speak volumes about Saudi reserves.

Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London

Two other articles:

What is the Real Size of the Saudi Oil Reserves? (Pt 1/2)
http://blog.gorozen.com/blog/what-is-the-real-size-of-the-saudi-oil-reserves-pt-1/2

What is the Real Size of the Saudi Oil Reserves? (Pt 2/2)
http://blog.gorozen.com/blog/what-is-the-real-size-of-the-saudi-oil-reserves-pt-2/2

My comments:

The data suggest that on a net exports basis, after subtracting out rising domestic liquids consumption, Saudi Arabia has been supply constrained since 2005.

Their net exports of total petroleum liquids (BP data base) increased from 7.1 million bpd in 2002 to 8.7 million bpd in 2005, but their net exports have been below the 2005 level for 12 straight years, through 2017, averaging only 7.9 million bpd for 2006 to 2017 inclusive.

Note the large increase in Saudi net exports from 2002 to 2005 as annual Brent crude oil prices approximately doubled from $25 in 2002 to $55 in 2005.

However, as annual Brent crude oil prices doubled again, from $55 in 2005 to $110 for 2011 to 2013 inclusive, Saudi net exports averaged only 8.0 million bpd during this three year period of triple digit oil prices, versus 8.7 million bpd in 2005.

Regards,

Jeffrey Brown

[Feb 15, 2019] Consumption of liquid fuels grows over the next decade, before broadly plateauing in the 2030s

Highly recommended!
How they can claim that US tight oil will be produced in larger quantities if they predict stagnant oil prices and at those price the US production is unprofitable.
So from now on it's all condensate, and very little heavy and medium oil.
I like BP propaganda: "The abundance of oil resources, and risk that large quantities of recoverable oil will never be extracted, may prompt low-cost producers to use their comparative advantage to expand their market share in order to help ensure their resources are produced." That's not only stupid but also gives up the intent...
Notable quotes:
"... In the ET scenario, global demand for liquid fuels – crude and condensates, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and other liquids – increases by 10 Mb/d, plateauing around 108 Mb/d in the 2030s. ..."
"... All of the demand growth comes from developing economies, driven by the burgeoning middle class in developing Asian economies. Consumption of liquid fuels within the OECD resumes its declining trend. ..."
"... The increase in liquid fuels supplies is set to be dominated by increases in NGLs and biofuels, with only limited growth in crude ..."
www.bp.com

In the ET scenario, global demand for liquid fuels – crude and condensates, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and other liquids – increases by 10 Mb/d, plateauing around 108 Mb/d in the 2030s.

All of the demand growth comes from developing economies, driven by the burgeoning middle class in developing Asian economies. Consumption of liquid fuels within the OECD resumes its declining trend. The growth in demand is initially met from non-OPEC producers, led by US tight oil. But as US tight oil production declines in the final decade of the Outlook, OPEC becomes the main source of incremental supply. OPEC output increases by 4 Mb/d over the Outlook, with all of this growth concentrated in the 2030s. Non-OPEC supply grows by 6 Mb/d, led by the US (5 Mb/d), Brazil (2 Mb/d) and Russia (1 Mb/d) offset by declines in higher-cost, mature basins.

Consumption of liquid fuels grows over the next decade, before broadly plateauing in the 2030s

Demand for liquid fuels looks set to expand for a period before gradually plateauing as efficiency improvements in the transport sector accelerate. In the ET scenario, consumption of liquid fuels increases by 10 Mb/d (from 98 Mb/d to 108 Mb/d), with the majority of that growth happening over the next 10 years or so. The demand for liquid fuels continues to be dominated by the transport sector, with its share of liquids consumption remaining around 55%. Transport demand for liquid fuels increases from 56 Mb/d to 61 Mb/d by 2040, with this expansion split between road (2 Mb/d) (divided broadly equally between cars, trucks, and 2/3 wheelers) and aviation/marine (3 Mb/d). But the impetus from transport demand fades over the Outlook as the pace of vehicle efficiency improvements quicken and alternative sources of energy penetrate the transport system . In contrast, efficiency gains when using oil for non-combusted uses, especially as a feedstock in petrochemicals, are more limited. As a result, the non-combusted use of oil takes over as the largest source of demand growth over the Outlook, increasing by 7 Mb/d to 22 Mb/d by 2040.

The outlook for oil demand is uncertain but looks set to play a major role in global energy out to 2040

Although the precise outlook is uncertain, the world looks set to consume significant amounts of oil (crude plus NGLs) for several decades, requiring substantial investment. This year's Energy Outlook considers a range of scenarios for oil demand, with the timing of the peak in demand varying from the next few years to beyond 2040. Despite these differences, the scenarios share two common features. First, all the scenarios suggest that oil will continue to play a significant role in the global energy system in 2040, with the level of oil demand in 2040 ranging from around 80 Mb/d to 130 Mb/d. In all scenarios, trillions of dollars of investment in oil is needed Second, significant levels of investment are required for there to be sufficient supplies of oil to meet demand in 2040. If future investment was limited to developing existing fields and there was no investment in new production areas, global production would decline at an average rate of around 4.5% p.a. (based on IEA's estimates), implying global oil supply would be only around 35 Mb/d in 2040. Closing the gap between this supply profile and any of the demand scenarios in the Outlook would require many trillions of dollars of investment over the next 20 years.

Growth in liquids supply is initially dominated by US tight oil, with OPEC production increasing only as US tight oil declines

Growth in global liquids production is dominated in the first part of the Outlook by US tight oil, with OPEC production gaining in importance further out. In the ET scenario, total US liquids production accounts for the vast majority of the increase in global supplies out to 2030, driven by US tight oil and NGLs. US tight oil increases by almost 6 Mb/d in the next 10 years, peaking at close to 10.5 Mb/d in the late 2020s, before falling back to around 8.5 Mb/d by 2040. The strong growth in US tight oil reinforces the US's position as the world's largest producer of liquid fuels. As US tight oil declines, this space is filled by OPEC production, which more than accounts for the increase in liquid supplies in the final decade of the Outlook.

The increase in OPEC production is aided by OPEC members responding to the increasing abundance of global oil resources by reforming their economies and reducing their dependency on oil, allowing them gradually to adopt a more competitive strategy of increasing their market share. The speed and extent of this reform is a key uncertainty affecting the outlook for global oil markets (see pp 88-89).

The stalling in OPEC production during the first part of the Outlook causes OPEC's share of global liquids production to fall to its lowest level since the late 1980s before recovering towards the end of the Outlook.

Low-cost producers: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Russia

Oil demand
Download chart and data Download this chart pdf / 64.6 KB Download this data xlsx / 10.1 KB
Excluding GTLs and CTLs

The abundance of oil resources, and risk that large quantities of recoverable oil will never be extracted, may prompt low-cost producers to use their comparative advantage to expand their market share in order to help ensure their resources are produced.

The extent to which low-cost producers can sustainably adopt such a 'higher production, lower price' strategy depends on their progress in reforming their economies, reducing their dependence on oil revenues.

In the ET scenario, low-cost producers are assumed to make some progress in the second half of the Outlook, but the structure of their economies still acts as a material constraint on their ability to exploit fully their low-cost barrels.

The alternative 'Greater reform' scenario assumes a faster pace of economic reform, allowing low-cost producers to increase their market share. The extent to which low-cost producers can increase their market share depends on: the time needed to increase production capacity; and on the ability of higher-cost producers to compete, by either reducing production costs or varying fiscal terms.

The lower price environment associated with this more competitive market structure boosts demand, with the consumption of oil growing throughout the Outlook.

Growth in liquid fuels supplies is driven by NGLs and biofuels, with only limited growth in crude oil production

The increase in liquid fuels supplies is set to be dominated by increases in NGLs and biofuels, with only limited growth in crude.

[Feb 15, 2019] S>omething like $150B in shale companies debt comes due between now and 2023.

US reserves are estimated by some to about 50 billion barrels. Oil production, along with reserve estimates, are growing in the US for one reason and one reason only, the advent of shale oil. Reserve estimates before 2008 were based on conventional oil.
Onshore conventional oil production in the USA is in steep decline. Shale oil production is intrinsically connected with financing and it produce along with oil a stream of junk bonds. At some point investors might do not want them of the bubble start deflating. Then what.
Notable quotes:
"... Next three years for Shale Drillers may be a problem. I believe something like $150B in debt comes due between now and 2023. That's a lot of debt to roll over, as well as take on more debt to fund CapEx. ..."
Feb 15, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

TechGuy: 02/15/2019 at 1:23 pm

Hugo Wrote:

"Dennis, with his calculation of a peak in 2025 + or – 3 years is about right."

That really depends on how much debt the Shale Drillers can take on, and presumes there is not another global recession before 2025. Next three years for Shale Drillers may be a problem. I believe something like $150B in debt comes due between now and 2023. That's a lot of debt to roll over, as well as take on more debt to fund CapEx.

Without constant US Shale production increases, world production peaks.

[Feb 15, 2019] Oil Rises as Aramco Said to Cut Output at Biggest Offshore Field

KSA and Russia together can drive oil price to anywhere they wish... Wall street sharks can do nothing with those giants if they cut oil output.
Notable quotes:
"... Russia plans to accelerate the output cuts it agreed to with OPEC+. ..."
Feb 15, 2019 | finance.yahoo.com

Oil climbed as Saudi Arabia was said to curtail some output from its Safaniyah offshore oil field, the largest in the world.

Futures in New York rose as much as 2.2 percent Friday, pushing toward its biggest weekly gain in a month. Saudi Arabia was said to trim supply from Safaniyah to repair a damaged power cable, while Russia plans to accelerate the output cuts it agreed to with OPEC+.

... ... ...

Saudi Arabian Oil Co.'s Safaniyah field has the capacity to pump 1.2 million to 1.5 million barrels of crude a day, and is a major component of the Arab Heavy grade. The cable was damaged in an accident about two weeks ago and repairs are expected to be completed by early March, people with knowledge of the matter said.

[Feb 15, 2019] Global shortage of medium to heavy sour crude

Notable quotes:
"... Global shortage of medium to heavy sour crude: Cuts from OPEC, Canada and potentially Venezuela have increased the price of medium and heavy crude oils. The Mars benchmark, a medium, sour crude produced in the Gulf of Mexico, has moved to above par with Light Louisiana Sweet. ..."
"... several medium to heavy sour crude grades produced in the Middle East are now trading at a premium to Brent. ..."
Feb 12, 2019 | Oil Sands Magazine

Global shortage of medium to heavy sour crude: Cuts from OPEC, Canada and potentially Venezuela have increased the price of medium and heavy crude oils. The Mars benchmark, a medium, sour crude produced in the Gulf of Mexico, has moved to above par with Light Louisiana Sweet.

Western Canadian Select (WCS) prices in the Gulf Coast also rose above par with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark at the end of January. WCS trades at a US$10/bbl discount to WTI in Alberta, but now sells at a US$1.50 premium in Houston.

A similar effect is being seen globally, as several medium to heavy sour crude grades produced in the Middle East are now trading at a premium to Brent.

[Feb 15, 2019] You can see how the definitions are going to blur and they're going to allow declaring oil production numbers to be anything that they want them to be.

Highly recommended!
Notable quotes:
"... I have been suspicious for some time that production numbers can be corrupted by fuzzy definitions. ..."
"... You can see how the definitions are going to blur and they're going to allow declaring oil production numbers to be anything that they want them to be. ..."
Feb 15, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Watcher: 02/15/2019 at 4:24 am

I have been suspicious for some time that production numbers can be corrupted by fuzzy definitions. Iran is being sanctioned, but Iran shares that enormous gas field under the Persian Gulf with Qatar. Gas production yields condensate and it yields NGLs.

High vapor pressure NGLs get labeled liquefied petroleum gas, and that is used for transportation fuel in India. Pentane Plus is used or called something akin to natural gasoline.

You can see how the definitions are going to blur and they're going to allow declaring oil production numbers to be anything that they want them to be. Iran is using this to dodge sanctions, or they did use it when condensate was not restricted. Don't recall if that loophole was closed in the current sanctions. That would be a good thing to know.

The same thing can happen with shale. We hear all sorts of talk about how much gas is being flared and how much gas is being captured, and you know perfectly well there has to be condensate involved. There was an article a year or so ago about NGL capture in the Bakken, but I don't recall any follow-up. It shouldn't take too much of a stretch on the part of state regulators to find a way to count the high vapor pressure portion of NGL as oil.

likbez: 02/15/2019 at 7:27 pm

You can see how the definitions are going to blur and they're going to allow declaring oil production numbers to be anything that they want them to be.

Exactly. And this, in turn, allows Wall Street to suppress the price of "prime oil" using fake production numbers, fake storage glut (which is essentially condensate glut) and similar tricks. Please note that the US refineries consume mainly "prime oil" while the USA mainly produces (and tries to export at a discount) "subprime oil."

Pretty polished and sophisticated racket. It might well be that shale oil companies are partially financed from those Wall Street profits as nobody in serious mind expect those loans to be ever repaid.

So OPEC cuts are the only weapon that OPEC countries have against this racket.

In any case, I think all those nice charts now need to be split into "prime oil" and subprime oil parts and analyzed separately. In the current conditions, treating "heavy oil" and condensate as a single commodity looks to me like pseudoscience.

[Feb 15, 2019] Saudi Aramco halted oil output this week at Safaniyah, the world's largest offshore oilfield

Notable quotes:
"... The unplanned shutdown takes out another 1 million barrels a day of heavy oil from the market, Alex Schindelar, executive editor of content & strategy at Energy Intelligence Group tweeted Thursday, adding that the heavy crude oil market was already tight because of the OPEC output cuts and U.S. sanctions on both Iran and Venezuela. ..."
Feb 15, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Greenbub x Ignored says: 02/14/2019 at 6:06 pm

Saudi Aramco halts oil output at the world's largest offshore oilfield: report

Saudi Aramco halted oil output this week at Safaniyah, the world's largest offshore oilfield, Energy Intelligence reported Thursday, citing sources familiar with the matter, according to a tweet from Amena Bakr, senior correspondent at the news and research service provider. Further information was only available through subscription-based Energy Intelligence.

The potential impact on oil prices depends on how long output at the oilfield is down, said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group.

"The thinking is that the field produces heavy crude, and the world is short of that [type of] oil."

The unplanned shutdown takes out another 1 million barrels a day of heavy oil from the market, Alex Schindelar, executive editor of content & strategy at Energy Intelligence Group tweeted Thursday, adding that the heavy crude oil market was already tight because of the OPEC output cuts and U.S. sanctions on both Iran and Venezuela.

In electronic trading, March WTI oil CLH9, +1.06% was at $54.51 a barrel, after settling at $54.41 on the New York mercantile Exchange.

~Marketwatch

[Feb 15, 2019] True KSA reserves are very likely somewhere in the neighborhood of 70 billion barrels.

Feb 15, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Ron Patterson x Ignored says: 02/14/2019 at 4:37 pm

I had to google the link, but it was not hard to find.

How Much Oil Does Saudi Arabia Really Have?

Okay, you will have to read the article to see how Robert arrived at his conclusion. But his conclusion is:

So, I have no good reason to doubt Saudi Arabia's official numbers. They probably do have 270 billion barrels of proved oil reserves.

I find his logic horribly flawed. Robert compares Saudi's growing reserve estimates with those of the USA.

First, the US Securities and Exchange Commission have the strictest oil reporting laws in the world, or did have in 1982. Also, better technology has greatly improved reserve estimates. And third, the advent of shale oil has dramatically added to US reserve estimates.

Saudi has no laws that govern their reserve reporting estimates.

From Wikipedia, US Oil Reserves: Proven oil reserves in the United States were 36.4 billion barrels (5.79×109 m3) of crude oil as of the end of 2014, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The 2014 reserves represent the largest US proven reserves since 1972, and a 90% increase in proved reserves since 2008.

Robert says US reserves are 50 billion barrels. I don't know where he gets that number but it really doesn't matter. Oil production, along with reserve estimates, are growing in the US for one reason and one reason only, the advent of shale oil. Reserve estimates before 2008 were based on conventional oil. Onshore conventional oil production in the USA is in steep decline.

Robert Rapier is brillant oil man, but a brilliant downstream oil man. Refineries are his forte. He should know better than the shit he produced in that article.

100 percent of Saudi Arabia's reserves are based on conventional oil. Their true reserves are very likely somewhere in the neighborhood of 70 billion barrels.

[Feb 15, 2019] Opec spare capacity and the difference between "prime oil" and "subprime oil."

Notable quotes:
"... If you take a look at PXD announcements, I reach the conclusion that Permian is slowing ..."
Feb 15, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Hugo

x Ignored says: 02/14/2019 at 2:35 am
OPEC spare capacity is now around 2 million barrels per day.

OPEC has cut production by 1.5 million barrels per day in the last 2 months.

Besides that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have ended their dispute over the neutral zone, which will add another 500,000 of spare capacity.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Arabia-Kuwait-Discuss-New-Oil-Production-In-Neutral-Zone.html

IN the longer term Saudi Arabia will add another 1mmbd to it's capacity over the next few years.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-falih-investment/saudi-arabia-to-invest-20-billion-in-spare-oil-production-capacity-idUSKCN1ME111

likbez says: 02/14/2019 at 4:51 pm
As Ron Patterson explained several times here, OPEC members cheat. They cut from the elevated, unsustainable level, achieved specifically to accommodate cuts.

So "after cut" level is often not that different from a reasonable "normal," sustainable production level in their current production conditions, plus some, related to previously delayed maintenance, shutdowns.

Four years of capital underinvestment bite production both in OPEC and non-OPEC. So talking about excess capacity is somewhat problematic and we now need to distinguish between "prime oil" and "subprime oil."

Most people who talk about "excess capacity" are interested in lower oil price (the list includes US and EU governments ) That's why condensate and other "subprime oil" is counted in total oil output. Supply of "prime oil" now is stressed.

In other words, everything connected with oil is now politically charged. That means that it is not wise to take IEA data and their forecasts at face value. It should be viewed as an opinion of the agencies deeply (institutionally) interested in the low oil price.

You need the ability to read between the lines, much like readers of the press in the USSR. And as several experts here do. You need the acute ability to cut through "official bullsh*t".

And neutral expert opinion is very difficult to come by. That's why this blog has so much value.

Watcher x Ignored says: 02/14/2019 at 3:44 am
Heads up. Some scroll upwards there is a quoted article from oilprice.com.

The writer is Nawar Alsaadi. I suspect we fell victim of presumption. He has an Arabic sounding name, and that leads us to suspect he knows something about oil.

Look into this guy. There's nothing ugly or horrible about his background, but there is nothing in it that shouts out expert. He is a writer. Including publishing fiction.

He's also "with" some investment firm. Turns out he's president and CEO of the firm and conveniently an employee count is not easily found.

Ned x Ignored says: 02/14/2019 at 3:58 am
I'm curious – does anybody know, by the data trends, which OPEC country is likely to run so low on oil that they become a net importer, next? I do understand this event may take some time to occur.
Krishnan Viswnathan x Ignored says: 02/14/2019 at 11:17 am
If you take a look at PXD announcements, I reach the conclusion that Permian is slowing. Like Dennis Coyne, I look at growth after fourth quarter 2018. Oil production in fourth quarter is 199.2 Kilo barrels/day. The guidance for 2019 is between 203 to 213 Kilo barrels/day. PXD is spending 300 MM dollars for gas processing and water treatment infrastructure.

[Feb 15, 2019] Mankind probably has another trillion barrels at best to consume in the future in addition to the 1.3 trillion already consumed.

Which means around 30 years at the current consumption rate
Feb 15, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Ron Patterson x Ignored says: 02/14/2019 at 5 :39 pm

Food for thought

I just did a little math using OPEC's estimate of OPEC and Non-OPEC World proven oil Reserves.

OPEC says they have 1214.21 billion barrels of proven reserves. And they say non-OPEC has 268.56 billion barrels of proven reserves. Average OPEC C+C production, over the last four years, has been 12.78 billion barrels per year according to the EIA. The EIA says the average non-OPEC C+C production over the last four years has been 16.8 billion barrels per year.

Okay, here is the killer. If those numbers are correct then the average non-OPEC nation has an R/P ratio of 16 while the average OPEC nation has an R/P ratio of 95. If you think those R/P ratio numbers are even remotely correct then I have a bridge I would like to sell you.

Ravi x Ignored says: 02/14/2019 at 11:05 pm
Ron,

I agree that the R/P numbers seem very suspicious. But if this is true then OPEC reserves are closer to 400-500 billion barrels not 1.2 trillion barrels. That would give us another trillion barrels at best to consume in the future in addition to the 1.3 trillion already consumed. This brings the URR to 2.2-2.5 trillion barrels at best including extra heavy. What do you think of the URR of 3.1 trillion barrels that is commonly assumed? Also canadian tar sands and venezuelan heavy oil have very low EROI which brings down the extractable oil reserves further. Do you think that is taken into account?

[Feb 14, 2019] Emerging 'Quality' Problem To Haunt Oil Markets

Feb 14, 2019 | oilprice.com

...OPEC+ production cuts could erase the supply surplus in the near future. Saudi Arabia has promised to cut more than required, lowering output in January by 350,000 bpd while also promising another 500,000 bpd cut by March.

"[C]ore-OPEC producers are adopting a 'shock and awe' strategy and exceeding their cut commitment," Goldman Sachs said in a note, predicting that Brent oil prices will average $67.50 per barrel in the second quarter.

[Feb 14, 2019] Too much condensate, too little heavy oil problem to haunt oil markets

Feb 14, 2019 | oilprice.com

To accommodate steadily rising barrels of light oil, OPEC and its non-OPEC partners have backed out their own supplies in order to prevent a crash in prices. But many OPEC members produce medium and heavier blends.

The quantity of global supply may not be vastly different, but the quality of the crude slate has changed dramatically. Refiners cannot easily swap out one type for another. The upshot is that the world is seeing a glut of light oil at a time when supply of medium and heavier barrels are relatively tight.

... ... ...

U.S. sanctions against Venezuela and Iran are magnifying this trend, knocking even more medium and heavier barrels off of the market.

... ... ...

The IEA said that these quality differences could cause some problems this year. "In quantity terms, in 2019 the US alone will grow its crude oil production by more than Venezuela's current output," the agency wrote in its Oil Market Report published Wednesday. "In quality terms, it is more complicated. Quality matters."

[Feb 13, 2019] Condensate can't replace heavy oil

IEA is one-half EU marketing agency with the explisit goal to keep oil price low, and one half a research organization. In different reports one role can be prevalent.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that margins for U.S. Gulf Coast refiners have declined to the lowest levels since late 2014, based on recent price trends in certain grades of crude oil and petroleum products. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/
Comment on Yahoo are absolutly idiotic. I have dount only a couple more or less reasonable comment in the first 48. This level of incompetence and brainwashing is simply amazing.
Feb 13, 2019 | news.yahoo.com

The "call" on OPEC crude is now forecast at 30.7 million bpd in 2019, down from the IEA's last estimate of 31.6 million bpd in January.

U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela have choked off supply of the heavier, more sour crude that tends to yield larger volumes of higher-value distillates, as opposed to gasoline. The move has created disruption for some refiners, but has not led to a dramatic increase in the oil price in 2019.

"In terms of crude oil quantity, markets may be able to adjust after initial logistical dislocations (from Venezuela sanctions)", the Paris-based IEA said.

"Stocks in most markets are currently ample and ... there is more spare production capacity available."

Venezuela's production has almost halved in two years to 1.17 million bpd, as an economic crisis decimated its energy industry and U.S. sanctions have now crippled its exports.

Brent crude futures have risen 20 percent in 2019 to around $63 a barrel, but most of that increase took place in early January. The price has largely plateaued since then, in spite of the subsequent imposition of U.S. sanctions.

"Oil prices have not increased alarmingly because the market is still working off the surpluses built up in the second half of 2018," the IEA said.

"In quantity terms, in 2019, the U.S. alone will grow its crude oil production by more than Venezuela's current output. In quality terms, it is more complicated. Quality matters."

dlider909, 7 hours ago Story will change in 30 days.

Robert, 7 hours ago ... ... ...

What this report fails to do is to pay the appropriate homage to American oilfield roughnecks...

ralf

7 hours ago Nonsense. I see military action against Venezuela soon, just because of our thirst for oil.
Talk about shale is like talk about Moon conquests, not supported by hard facts.

[Feb 13, 2019] Oil gains 2 percent as Saudi Arabia readies more supply cuts

Feb 13, 2019 | finance.yahoo.com

Saudi Arabia planning to drop March crude output by more than a half a million barrels per day below its initial pledge.

... ... ...

OPEC said on Tuesday it had reduced oil production almost 800,000 bpd in January to 30.81 million bpd under its voluntary global supply pact.

Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih told the Financial Times that the kingdom would reduce cut production to about 9.8 million bpd in March to bolster oil prices.

[Feb 13, 2019] Declining GOM output in 2019 is a more likely scenario then IEA prediction of increase of production

Notable quotes:
"... they expect maybe 200 kb/d higher output in the GOM and my interpretation of George Kaplan's and SouthLaGeo's recent comments is that flat or possibly declining GOM output is a more likely scenario. ..."
Feb 13, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Energy News, 02/12/2019 at 2:29 pm

The EIA's STEO released today.
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
They forecast US C+C production to increase +0.79 million barrels per day during 2019
From Dec 2018 11.93 million barrels per day
To Dec 2019 12.72 million barrels per day
Dennis Coyne, 02/12/2019 at 4:12 pm
The EIA's forecast might not be too far off, but I think they expect maybe 200 kb/d higher output in the GOM and my interpretation of George Kaplan's and SouthLaGeo's recent comments is that flat or possibly declining GOM output is a more likely scenario.

[Feb 12, 2019] Venezuela production should take a larger drop in February.

Feb 12, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Fernando L x Ignored says: 02/12/2019 at 5:36 pm

Venezuela production should take a larger drop in February. Today Interim President Guaidó announced Feb 23 would be the day a big push would be made to push humanitarian aid columns into Venezuela. Collection points for food and medicine are now available in Colombia and Brazil, and others are being prepared.

Maduro moved 700 special forces (FAES) which are usually kept serving as death squads in large cities, to cover the bridges between Ureña in Venezuela and Cucuta in Colombia, with orders to fire on the humanitarian relief trucks. Guaidó responded the border was plenty long and Maduro lacked enough FAES and Cubans to stop the relief from crossing the border. He also pointed out that if Maduro had to use death squads to patrol the border it meant he didn't trust the Army, the National Guard or the National Police, so he asked for volunteers inside Venezuela to help overcome Maduro's thugs with sheer numbers.

Today it became very common to see an individual scream "Maduro!" and the crowd respond "f k you!". It's the way people pass the time at metro stations and while waiting in line. And the police seem to have abandoned the usurper, because they seldom do anything about it.

[Feb 12, 2019] Oil gains 2 percent

Feb 12, 2019 | finance.yahoo.com

Rising oil prices help Venezuela more than it helps the rest of OPEC because Venezuela needs the money more.

[Feb 12, 2019] OPEC January Production Data " Peak Oil Barrel

Feb 12, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

OPEC + Russia, down 1,590,000 barrels per day since October, should be enough to move the market. And it does seem to be up about 1.5% this morning.

[Feb 12, 2019] Sanctions, OPEC cuts push Asia's heavy crude oil prices above Brent

Feb 12, 2019 | finance.yahoo.com

Middle East oil benchmarks Dubai and DME Oman have nudged above prices for Brent crude, an unusual move as U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran along with output cuts by OPEC tighten supply of medium to heavy oil, traders and analysts said.

Heavier grades, mainly produced in the Middle East, Canada and Latin America, typically have a high sulphur content and are usually cheaper than Brent, the benchmark for lighter oil in the Atlantic Basin.

[Feb 09, 2019] As of 2017, Rosneft controlled 13% of Venezuela's crude exports

Notable quotes:
"... Last year, oil production dropped by 37% compared with 2017. So, Maduro has been struggling to pay back the loans and last year, Sechin had to fly to Caracas to negotiate with the Venezuelan leader over delayed oil supplies. ..."
Feb 09, 2019 | www.asiatimes.com

As of 2017, Russia controlled 13% of Venezuela's crude exports, Reuters reported . According to some experts, Rosneft has been taking advantage of Venezuela's difficulties to secure deals which will be profitable in the long term.

... ... ...

The beleaguered country's economy is on the verge of collapse and the oil sector, which accounts for over 90% of national export revenues, has not been spared. Last year, oil production dropped by 37% compared with 2017. So, Maduro has been struggling to pay back the loans and last year, Sechin had to fly to Caracas to negotiate with the Venezuelan leader over delayed oil supplies.

Russia's concern about a collapse in Venezuela's economy is tangible. A delegation of high-ranking Russian officials flew to Caracas in October to advise the government on how to overcome the crisis. With the country in a state of turmoil, Russia's Deputy Minister of Finance Sergei Storchak said he expects Venezuela to struggle to repay its debt, and the next $100 million tranche is due next month.

[Feb 08, 2019] The US dollar is used for the international oil and gas trade and a wide part of global trade. This gives the US an exorbitant privilege to sanction countries it opposes and impose its conditions for oil trading

Feb 08, 2019 | off-guardian.org

Narrative says Feb, 1, 2019

Nations should explore better system to break US hegemony

"The US dollar is used for the international oil and gas trade and a wide part of global trade. This gives the US an exorbitant privilege to sanction countries it opposes.
..
The latest sanctions on Venezuela's state-owned oil company aim to cut off source of foreign currency of Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro's government and eventually force him to step down.
..
A new mechanism should be devised to thwart such a vicious circle"

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1137847.shtml

crank says Feb, 1, 2019
Francis Lee; Big B,

OK I phrased that badly.

My question is really about those at the top of the power pyramid (those few hundred families who own the controling share of the wealth of the world) -- those who position idiots like Bolton to do their work, do they comprehend 'exergy' decline ?

If we can, then can they not? I agree with Parenti that they are not 'somnambulists'. They are strategists looking out for their own interests, and that means scrutinising trends in political movements, culture, technology and, well, just about everything. I find it hard, the idea that all these people -- people who have seen their businesses shaped by resource discovery, exploitation and then depletion, have no firm grasp on the realities of dwindling returns on energy.

The models were drawn up 47 years ago. I think that some of them at least, do understand that economic growth is coming to a halt, and have understood for decades. If true then they are planning that transition in their favour.

These hard to swallow facts about oil are still on the far fringes of any political conversation. The neoliberal cultists are deaf to them for obvious reasons; the socialist idealists believe that a 'New Deal' can lead us off the death train, but mostly ignore the intractable relationship between energy decline and financial problems; even the anarchists want their work free utopia run by robots and AI but stop short of asking whether solar panels and wind turbines can actually provide the power for all that tech. It's the news that nobody wants to think about, but which they will be forced to thinking about in the very near future.

The Twitter feed 'Limits to Growth' has less than 800 followers (excellent though it is).

BigB says Feb, 1, 2019
Crank

I do not want to get into the mind of the Walrus of Death Bolton! I do not want to know what he does, as he does. But at lower levels of government, and corporatism, there is an awareness of surplus energy economics. And as Nafeez has also pointed out, the military (the Pentagon) are taking an interest. And though it could rapidly change, who really appreciates the nuances of EROEI? I'm guessing at less than a single percent of all populations? And how many include its effects in a integrated political sense?

Its appreciation is sporadic: ranging from tech-utopia hopium to a defeated fatalism of the inevitability of collapse. Unless and until people want to face the harshness of the reality that capitalism has created: we are going to be involved in a marginal analysis. There are very few people who have realised that capitalism is long dead.

Dr Tim Morgan estimates that world capitalism has conservatively had $140tn in stimulus since 2008 -- without stimulating anything or reviving it at all. In fact, that amounts to the greatest robbery in history -- the theft of the future. Inasmuch as they can, those unrepayable debts -- transferred to inflate the parasitic assets of capitalists -- will be socialised. Except they cannot be. Not without surplus energy.

https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2019/01/20/145-fire-and-ice-part-two/

Brexit, gilets jaunes, Venezuela, unending crises in MENA, China's economic slowdown, etc -- all linked by EROEI.

It is a common socio-politico-economic energy nexus -- but linked together by whom? And the emergent surplus energy-mind-environmental ecology nexus? All the information is available. The formation of a new political manifesto started in the 1960s with the New Left but it seems to have been in stasis since. Perhaps this might stimulate the conversation.

According to Nate Hagens: there is 4.5 years of human muscle power leveraged by each barrel of oil. We are all going to be working for a very long time to pay back the debts the possessing classes have built up for us -- with absolutely no marginal utility for ourselves.

We are subsidising our own voluntary slavery unless we develop an emergent ecosocialist and ecosophical alternative to carbon capitalism. We cannot expect paleoconservative carbon relics like Bolton -- or anyone else -- to do it for us. The current political landscape is dominated by a hierarchical, vested interest, carbon aristocracy. We can't expect that to change for our benefit any time ever. Expect the opposite.

BigB says Feb, 2, 2019
Graeber has a point, though. We could already have a post-scarcity, post-production society but for the egregious maldistribution of resources and employment. Andre Gorz said as much 50 years ago (Critique of Economic Reason). Why do we organise around production: it makes no sense but for the relations of production are, and remain, the relations of hierarchical rule. So long as we assign value to a human life on the basis of meritocratic productivity -- we will have dehumanisation, marginalisation, and subjugation (haves and have nots). So why not organisation around care, freedom and play?

Such a solution would require the transversalistion of society and not-full-employment: so that no part of the system is subordinate, and no part is privileged. All systems and sub-ordinate (care) systems would be co-equal, of corresponding value and worth. So, without invoking EROEI, that would go a long way to solve our exergy, waste, pollution, and inequality problems. It is the profligate, unproductive superstructure: supporting rentier, surplus energy accumulating, profit-seeking suprasocieties -- that squanders our excess energy and puts expansive spatio-temporal pressures on already stretched biophysical ecological systems that engenders potential collapse. It is their -- the possessing classes -- assets that are being inflated, at our environmental expense. When it comes to survivability, we cannot afford a parasitic globalised superstructure draining the host -- the ecologically productive base. Without the over-accumulation, overconsumption, and wastage (the accursed share) associated with the superstructure of the advanced economies -- and their cultural, credit, military imperialisms I expect we could live quite well. Without the pressures of globalised transportation networks, and unnecessary military budgets -- the pressure on oil is minimised. It could be used for the 1001 other uses it has, rather than fuelling Saudi Eurofighters bombing Yemeni schoolchildren, for instance. The surplus energy could be used to educate, clothe and feed them instead. That would be a better use of resources, for sure.

If we took stock of what we really have, and what we really are -- a form of spiritual neo-self-sufficiency, augmented and extended into co-mutual care and freedom valorising ecologies we wouldn't need to chase the perceived loss all over the globe, killing everything that moves. The solutions are not hard, they are normative, once we are shocked out of this awful near-life trance state of separationism. Thanks for the link.

crank says Feb, 2, 2019
It seems to me that there are two parallel arguments going on.
One is about social organisation, attitudes towards and policies determining work, money, paid employment, technological development and the distribution of weath.
The other is fundamentally based on the laws of thermodynamics and concerns resource limits, energy surpluses, the role of 'stored sunlight' in producing things and doing work for each other, pollution and projections about these into the future.

I am surprised that Graeber (just as an example) seems to basically ignore the second of these even though he clearly is an incisive thinker and makes good points about the first. It is taken as a given that, theoretically at least, human civilisation could re-organise around a new ethic, transform the economy into a 'caring economy', re-structure money, government and do away with militarism. In terms of what to do now, as an individual, what choices to make, it is disconcerting to me when talk of these ideals seems to ignore those latter questions about overshoot.

I wonder if the egalitarian nature of much of indiginous North American society was inescapably bound with the realities of a low population density, low technology, intimate relationship with the natural world and a culture completely steeped in reverence for Mother Earth.
The talk I hear from Bastani or Graeber along the lines of 'we could be flying around in jet packs on the moon, if only society was organised sensibly' rings hollow to me.

BigB says Feb, 2, 2019
Crank

Welcome to my world! Apart from as a managerial tool, systems thinking has yet to catch on in the wider population. According to reductive materialism: there are two unlinked arguments. According to Dynamic Systems Theory (DST) there is only one integrated argument -- with two inter-connected correlative aspects. We can only organise around what we can energetically afford. Consequently, we cannot organise around what we cannot afford -- that is, global industrialised production with a supervenient elitist superstructure.

Let's face it : ethical arguments carry little weight against organisation around hierarchical rule. The current talk of an ethical capitalism -- in mixed economies with 'commons' elements -- is an appeasement. and distractional to the gathering and ineluctable reality.

The current (2012) EROI for the UK is 6.2:1 -- barely above the 'energy cliff' of 5:1. The GDP 'growth' and bullshit jobs are funded by monetised debt (we borrow around £5 to make every £1 -- from Tim Morgan's SEEDS). From the Earth Overshoot Day website: the UK is in economic overshoot from May 8th onward.

These are indicators that we will not be "flying jetpacks on the moon": even if we reorganise. Everyone, and I mean everyone, will have to make do with less. A lot less. Everything would have to be localised and sustainable. Production would be minimised, and not at all full. Two major systems of production -- food (agroecology) and energy -- would have to be sustainable and self-sovereign. And financialisation and the rentier, service economy? Now you can see why no one, not even Dave the crypto-anarchist, is talking about reality. Elitism, establishment and entitlement do not figure in an equitable future. We can't afford it, energetically or ethically.

So when will the debate move on? Not any time the populace is bought into ideational deferred prosperity. All the time that EROEI is ignored as the fundamental concept governing dwindling prosperity -- no one, and I mean no one, will be talking about a minimal surplus energy future. The magic realism is that the economic affordances of cheap oil (unsustainably mimicked by debt-funding) will return sometime, somehow (the technocratic superfix). The aporia is that the longer the delay, the less surplus energy we will have available to utilise. Something like the Green New Deal -- that has been proposed for around two decades now -- may give us some quality of life to sustain. Pseudo-talk of a Customs Union, 'clean' coal, and nuclear power, will not.

An integrated reality -- along the model of Guattari's 'Three Ecologies' -- of mind, economy, and environment is well, we are not alone, but we are ahead of the curve. The other cultural aporia is that we need to implement such vision now. Actually, about thirty years ago but let's not get depressive!

We are going to need that cooperative organisation around care and freedom just to get through the coming century.

crank says Jan, 31, 2019
As mentioned elsewhere here, Venezualan oil deposits are not all that the hype cracks them up to be. They are mostly oil sands that produce little in the way of net energy gain after the lengthy process of extraction.The Venezuala drama is about the empire crushing democracy (i.e. socialism), not oil. [not that this detracts from Kit's essential point in the article].
The Left (as well as the Right), by and large have not come to terms with the realities of the decline in net surplus energy that is unfolding around the world and driving the political changes that we see. So they still view geopolitics in terms of the oil economy of pre-2008.
The productive economies of Europe are falling apart (check Steve Keen's latest on Max and Stacy -- although even i he doesn't delve into the energy decline aspect).
The carbon density of the global economy has not changed in the 27 years since the founding of the UNFCCC.

The Peak Oil phenomenon was oversimplified, misrepresented and misunderstood as a simple turning point in overall oil production. In truth it was a turning point in energy surplus.
I predict that by the end of this or next year, everyone will be talking about ERoEI. Everyone will realise that there is no way out of this predicament. Maybe there are ways to lessen the catastrophe, but no way to avert it. This will change the conversation, and even change what 'politics' means (i.e. you cannot campaign on a 'new start' or a 'better, brighter future' if everyone knows that that physically cannot happen).
Everyone will understand that their civilisation is collapsing.
Does Bolton understand this?

I dunno.
https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/brexit-stage-one-in-europes-slow-burn-energy-collapse-1f520d7e2d89

Francis Lee says Jan, 31, 2019
"Does Bolton Understand this/? I think this might qualify as a rhetorical question.
BigB says Feb, 1, 2019
Crank

If you were referring to my earlier comments about Venezuelan extra heavy crude: it's still massively about the oil. The current carbon capitalist world system does not understand surplus energy or EROEI, as it is so fixated on maximal short term returns for shareholders. It can't comprehend that their entire business model is unsustainable and self cannibalising. Which is bad for us: because carbon net-energy (exergy) economics it is foundational to all civilisation. The ignorance of it and subsequent environmental and social convergence crises threatens the systemic failure of our entire civilisation. The Venezuelan crisis affects us all: and is symptomatic of a decline in cheap oil due to rapidly falling EROEI.

I can't find the EROEI specifically for Venezuelan heavy oil: but it is only slightly more viscous than bitumen -- which has an EROEI of 3:1. Let's call it 4:1: the same as other tight oils and shale. Anything less than 5:1 is more or less an energy sink: with virtually no net energy left for society. The minimum EROEI for societal needs is 11:1. Does Bolton understand this? Francis hit the nail on the head there.

Do any of our leaders? No. If they did, a transition to decentralisation would be well under way. Globalised supply chains are systemically threatened and fragile. A globalised economy is spectacularly vulnerable. Especially a debt-ridden one. Which way are our leaders trying to take us? At what point will humanity realise we are following clueless Pied Pipers off the Seneca Cliff -- into globalised energy oblivion?

The rapid investment -- not in a post-carbon transition -- but in increased militarisation, and resource and market driven aggressive foreign intervention policies reveal the mindset of insanity. As people come to understand the energy basis of the world crisis: the fact of permanent austerity and increased pauperisation looms large. What will the outcome be when an armed nuclear madhouse becomes increasingly protectionsist of their dwindling share? Too alarmist, perhaps? Let's play pretend that we can plant a few trees and captive breed a few rhinos and it will all be fine. BAU?

The world runs on cheap oil: our socio-politico-economic expectations of progress depend on it. Which means that the modern human mind is, in effect, a thought-process predicated on cheap oil. Oleum ergo sum? Apart from the Middle East: we are already past the point where oil is a liability, not a viability. Debt funding its extraction, selling below the cost of production -- both assume the continual expansion of global GDP. Oil is a highly subsidised -- with our surplus socialisation capital -- negative asset. We foot the bill. A bill that EROEI predicts will keep on rising. At what point do we realise this? Or do we live in hopium of a return to historical prosperity? Or hang on the every word of the populist magic realism demagogue who promises a future social utopia?

If it's based on cheap oil, it ain't happenin'.

BigB says Feb, 1, 2019
Erratum: less viscous than bitumen.
wildtalents says Feb, 1, 2019
Is it no longer considered a courtesy to the reader to spell out, and who knows maybe even explain, the abbreviations one uses?
Jen says Feb, 1, 2019
EROEI = Energy Returned on Energy Invested (also known as EROI = Energy Return on Investment)

EROEI refers to the amount of usable energy that can be extracted from a resource compared to the amount of energy (usually considered to come from the same resource) used to extract it. It's calculated by dividing the amount of energy obtained from a source by the amount of energy needed to get it out.

An EROEI of 1:1 means that the amount of usable energy that a resource generates is the same as the amount of energy that went into getting it out. A resource with an EROEI of 1:1 or anything less isn't considered a viable resource if it delivers the same or less energy than what was invested in it. A viable resource is one with an EROEI of at least 3:1.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_returned_on_energy_invested

The concept of EROEI assumes that the energy needed to get more energy out of a resource is the same as the extracted energy ie you need oil to extract oil or you need electricity to extract electricity. In real life, you often need another source of energy to extract energy eg in some countries, to extract electricity, you need to burn coal, and in other countries, to extract electricity you need to build dams on rivers. So comparing the EROEI of electricity extraction across different countries will be difficult because you have to consider how and where they're generating electricity and factor in the opportunity costs involved (that is, what the coal or the water or other energy source -- like solar or wind energy -- could have been used for instead of electricity generation).

That is probably why EROEI is used mainly in the context of oil or natural gas extraction.

BigB says Feb, 1, 2019
wildtalents: Yes, I normally do. But the thread started from, and includes Crank's link that explains it.
Thomas Peterson says Feb, 1, 2019
That's true, Venezuela's 'oil' is mostly not oil.

[Feb 07, 2019] Saudi Arabia cuts oil output by about 400,000 bpd in January sources

Feb 07, 2019 | finance.yahoo.com

DUBAI/LONDON (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, cut its crude output in January by about 400,000 barrels per day (bpd), two OPEC sources said, as the kingdom follows through on its pledge to reduce production to prevent a supply glut.

Riyadh told OPEC that the kingdom pumped 10.24 million bpd in January, the sources said. That's down from 10.643 million bpd in December, representing a cut that was 70,000 bpd deeper than targeted under the OPEC-led pact to balance the market and support prices.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other non-OPEC producers - an alliance known as OPEC+ - agreed in December to reduce supply by 1.2 million bpd from Jan. 1.

The agreement stipulated that Saudi Arabia should cut output to 10.311 million bpd, but energy minister Khalid al-Falih has said it will exceed the required reduction to demonstrate its commitment.

[Feb 07, 2019] OPEC's Oil Exports to U.S. Fall to Five-Year Low in January

Feb 07, 2019 | finance.yahoo.com

Crude shipments to the U.S. from OPEC and its partners fell to 1.41 million barrels a day in January, the lowest in five years, according to data from cargo-tracking and intelligence company Kpler. Shrinking Iraqi imports and deep output cuts by Saudi Arabia fueled the decline

[Feb 05, 2019] Venezuelan Oil Exports Plunge On 'Harsher' Sanctions

So Trump imposed sanction on the USA too. Of he hopes that Strategic petroleum reserve will compensate for shortages... If Venezuela color revolution develops into Libya scenario, which they could oil output can be suppressed for years to come. In other words Trump really has chances to became Republican Obama.
OilPrice.com

The Wall Street Journal reported oil storage is "filling up" in Venezuela because of a lack of buyers.

Related: Wood Mac: Venezuela's Oil Output To Fall Below 1 Million Bpd

Moreover, not only are the effects of the sanctions more far-reaching, but also more immediate than first thought. At first, the U.S. seemed to exempt shipments that were underway, outlining a sort of phased approach that would allow a handful of American refiners to gradually unwind their oil purchase from Venezuela. The phased approach, which was supposed to be extended into April, would help "to minimize any immediate disruptions," U.S. Secretary of Treasury Steven Mnuchin said in late January.

But that now does not appear to be what is unfolding. PDVSA has demanded upfront payment, likely because it fears not being paid at all or having the revenues steered to the opposition. Indeed, the U.S. effort to steer PDVSA and its revenues into the hands of the U.S.-backed opposition leader Juan Gauidó appears to be a decisive turning point.

Oil tankers linked to Chevron, Lukoil and Respsol are delayed, redirected or sitting offshore because of lack of payment. The WSJ says that several of those tankers had recently sent oil to Corpus Christi, Texas, but are now anchored off the coast of Maracaibo sitting idle. "This is an absolute disaster," Luis Hernández, a Venezuelan oil union leader, told the WSJ. "There's almost no way to move the oil."

Unable to sell any oil, Maduro's regime could quickly run out of cash. The result could be a humanitarian catastrophe, a merciless and destructive objective that the Trump administration seems to have in mind. The U.S. government is essentially betting that by driving the country into the ground, the military and the people will turn on Maduro. It could yet turn out that way, but it could also deepen the misery and exact an unspeakable toll on the Venezuelan population, the very people the Trump administration says it is trying to help.

In the meantime, oil exports are likely heading into a freefall. The WSJ says that labor problems, including "mass defections of workers" are accelerating declines. PDVSA could soon run out of refined fuel.

Officials with knowledge of the situation told the WSJ that Venezuela's oil production has likely already fallen well below 1 million barrels per day (mb/d), down more than 10 percent – at least – from December levels.

Related: OPEC's Oil Princes Are Fighting For Survival

Wood Mackenzie estimates that production probably stands a little bit higher at about 1.1 mb/d, but that it could soon fall to 900,000 bpd.

... ... ...

That would push up oil prices significantly. But the U.S. government has blown past the point of no return, leaving it with no other options except to escalate. That means that Venezuela is set to lose a lot more oil than analysts thought only two weeks ago .

[Feb 05, 2019] Interesting to note that a part of Trump's beat-down of the Venezuela little people is the ban on the 120,000 b/d of dilutent last week. That will completely shut down Venezuella exports

Will loss of Vezuellian oil exports to the USA be compensated from the USA strategic reserve? Who will compensate this oil? Canada ? Or Trump administration decoded that temporary rise of oil prices is OK in view of more strategic goal ?
Notable quotes:
"... As for Venezuela's over-reliance on oil exports to support its economy, this is the result of past government policies before Chavez came to power. The US treated Venezuela as a petrol station and pro-US governments in the country turned it into a petrol station. ..."
Feb 05, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

PavewayIV , Feb 3, 2019 8:33:23 PM | link

Bart Hansen@20 - Oil production costs are complex, secret and mostly lies. With that caveat, Venezuela was thought to have about $10 - $15 production costs on average. That includes their light and medium crude, and zero investment in repair of their distribution networks.

Well over half of Venezuela's reserves are Orinco extra-heavy, sour crude. Essentially tar sands, but buried 500m - 1500m deep that require solvent or steam extraction. So (guess) maybe $30-range/bbl for production. Those tar sand oils produced are so heavy that they need pre-processing and dilution before they can be refined or exported. Naphtha or other refined products are used as dilutent and cost maybe $55/bbl today, but were around $75/bbl last October.

U.S. refineries were pretty much the only ones paying cash for their 500,000 b/d of Venezuelan crude. Trump's sanctions not only ban those imports, but also ban the 120,000 b/d of naphtha and other dilutents we sold them.

Interesting to note that part of Trump's beat-down of the Venezuela little people is a ban on the 120,000 b/d of dilutent last week. That will completely shut down their exports. They could find another source of naphtha, but that source will be looking for $6.6 million a day hard cash for it.

Maduro needs to sell Venezuela's gold to buy naphtha to export oil for ANY revenue. The $2.5 billion the Bank of England can't find and won't deliver is meant to hasten the food riots and CIA-orchestrated coup. But Mercy Corps is setting up concentration camps on the Colombian border and we're delivering food aid, so the U.S. is really the hero, here. God bless America! Obey, or die.

Jen , Feb 3, 2019 7:21:08 PM | link
Red Ryder @ 30: Venezuela's economy is as much ruined by US economic sanctions against the country and (at US behest) Saudi Arabia's flooding of the global oil market that sent oil prices down in order to crash the economies of other countries like Iran and Russia that were presumed to be dependent on oil exports, as by mismanagement or poor leadership on Chavez or Maduro's part.

On top of that, major food importers and producers (several of which are owned by companies or individuals hostile to Chavez and Maduro) have been withholding food from supermarkets to manipulate prices and goad the public into demonstrating against the government.

As for Venezuela's over-reliance on oil exports to support its economy, this is the result of past government policies before Chavez came to power. The US treated Venezuela as a petrol station and pro-US governments in the country turned it into a petrol station.

Chavez did try to encourage local food production and carried out some land redistribution to achieve this. But his efforts did not succeed because importing food was cheaper than producing it locally and farm-workers apparently preferred jobs in the oil industry that paid better and were more secure.

I do not know how the collectives were organised, whether they had some independent decision-making abilities or not, or whether they were organised from top down rather than bottom up, so I can't say whether their organisational structures and the internal culture those encouraged worked against them.

[Feb 04, 2019] Citi expects Brent crude to continue rising into the mid-$60 range and hit $70 before year end

Feb 04, 2019 | finance.yahoo.com

The bank expects oil supply to tighten in the first quarter as top exporter Saudi Arabia cuts production , but Citi's Ed Morse also forecasts a soft spot for demand in the opening months of 2019. Further complicating matters are a series of geopolitical and market dramas that will play out through the beginning of May.

This follows a three-month period that saw oil prices spike to nearly four-year highs as the market braced for U.S. sanctions on Iran. Prices then tumbled more then 40 percent to 18-month lows, blowing up long-held trading strategies and forcing drillers to rethink their 2019 budgets.

"The volatility every year is a good $20 to $25 a barrel between low and high," Morse said. "December was kind of the nightmare for the world where the swings were $50 at a low, $86 at a high and $68 for the average of Brent."

... ... ...

Citi expects Brent crude to continue rising into the mid-$60 range and hit $70 before year end. That will be enough to keep in play another wild card: surging U.S. oil production.

[Feb 04, 2019] The REAL Reason The U.S. Wants Regime Change in Venezuela.

Feb 04, 2019 | www.unz.com

Agent76 , says: February 3, 2019 at 7:29 pm GMT

Feb 2, 2019 The REAL Reason The U.S. Wants Regime Change in Venezuela. The U.S. and its allies have decided to throw their weight behind yet another coup attempt in Venezuela. As usual, they claim that their objectives are democracy and freedom. Nothing could be farther from the truth.

Feb 3, 2019 Venezuela's Oil Enough for World's 30 Year Energy Needs

The long bankrupt fiat financial system is pushing the Deep State to target Venezuela for the latter's natural resources that dwarfs that of its satellite province Saudi Arabia.

https://geopolitics.co/2019/02/03/venezuelas-oil-enough-for-worlds-30-year-energy-needs/

[Feb 04, 2019] Did Trump administration sold part of the US stratagic reserve to bring oil prices down?

Feb 04, 2019 | www.unz.com

renfro , says: January 30, 2019 at 11:59 pm GMT

Well people you need to explore this move to take over Venezuela in the context of what having that oil control will mean for the US and Israel in the increasingly likely event we blow up Iran and up end the ME for Israel.

Despite Trump selling off half of our US oil reserves last year .. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oil-reserve/u-s-sells-11-million-barrels-of-oil-from-reserve-to-exxon-five-other-firms-idUSKCN1LG2WT ..the US doesn't currently, at present anyway, need to control Venezuela's oil .

So what could happen that might make control of oil rich Venezuela necessary? Why has Venezuela become a Bolton and Abrams project? Why is Netanyahu putting himself into the Venezuela crisis ?

We, otoh, would need all the oil we could get if we blew up the ME, specifically Iran, figuratively or literally. The US signed a MOU with Israel in 1973 obligating us to supply Israel with oil ( and ship it to them) if they couldn't secure any for themselves.

[Feb 04, 2019] Production is likely to head south in 2019

Notable quotes:
"... Production is likely to head south, so nobody will get it. Perfect storm. Iran sanctions, Saudis are going to cut to 10.1 instead of 10.3, Venezuela production to plummet, and US oil is on a hiatus. What a glut. ..."
Feb 04, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Guym x Ignored says: 01/29/2019 at 4:38 pm

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/01/28/-venezuela-crisis-oils-ticking-time-bomb-to-detonate-analysts-say.html

Production is likely to head south, so nobody will get it. Perfect storm. Iran sanctions, Saudis are going to cut to 10.1 instead of 10.3, Venezuela production to plummet, and US oil is on a hiatus. What a glut.

[Feb 04, 2019] Global outages boost oil prices

Feb 04, 2019 | www.rt.com

Oil prices are on track for strong gains this week, and the price increases are not only the result of the crisis in Venezuela. The oil market received a boost from the US Federal Reserve this week, which signaled on Wednesday that it would essentially suspend its plans to hike interest rates this year. Fed chairman Jerome Powell said that economic growth remained "solid" but that the central bank had "the luxury of patience" when deciding on further rate hikes. That is a big change from prior guidance, in which the Fed very clearly outlined multiple rate increases in 2019.

"The case for raising rates has weakened somewhat," Powell said. Slowing growth in China and Europe, a weakening housing market, tepid inflation – these are not exactly the ingredients that call for aggressive rate tightening.

Read more Saudi Arabia: We'll pump the world's very last barrel of oil Saudi Arabia: We'll pump the world's very last barrel of oil

The announcement contributed to strong gains for oil prices on Wednesday and Thursday. At the time of this writing, WTI was trading in the mid-$50s, with Brent above $62 per barrel, both close to two-month highs.

READ MORE: Russia vows to defend its Venezuelan oil assets

A more dovish position from the Fed boosts the bullish case for oil in two ways. First, lower-than-expected interest rates will provide a jolt to the economy. Stock markets rose on the news. But second, a softer rate outlook also undercuts the US dollar a bit. A weaker dollar stokes crude oil demand in the rest of the world, and historically the dollar has had an inverse relationship with oil prices.

Meanwhile, the oil market received a more direct boost this week on news that Saudi Arabia slashed shipments to the United States. The US has the most transparent and up-to-date data on the oil market, which include weekly releases on production levels, imports and exports, and inventories. That kind of visibility is not readily available in most places around the world.

As a result, Saudi Arabia appears to be deliberately targeting that data. By reducing shipments to the US specifically, Riyadh can help create the appearance of a tightening oil market. Saudi shipments to the US dropped by 528,000 bpd last week to just 442,000 bpd, the lowest weekly total in more than two years.

Also on rt.com Oil markets could see deficit in 2019

More to the point, OPEC's production declined by 890,000 bpd in January, according to a Reuters survey, the largest monthly decline since early 2017 (the month that the first round of OPEC+ production cuts took effect). Iraq produced above its production ceiling, but aside from that, the cartel is well on its way to implementing the production curbs.

In fact, there is suddenly a remarkable confluence of events pushing oil in a bullish direction. First and foremost are the OPEC+ production cuts of 1.2 mb/d that are phasing in. But beyond that, US shale is starting to slowdown, and while output is still expected to grow this year, the increase could be the smallest in years.

Read more Iran announces oil discovery in untapped region Iran announces oil discovery in untapped region

Then there are the supply outages. Libya lost some output unexpectedly in December, with some of its production still offline. Iran sanctions waivers are set to expire in May, and the US hopes to further cut into Iranian oil exports. The new sanctions on Venezuela threaten to create yet another major source of supply outages.

In fact, when considering that OPEC+ is determined to keep 1.2 mb/d of supply off of the market, and painful US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran threaten to shut in even more output, it's pretty amazing that Brent crude is only trading at $62 per barrel. The Fed backing off interest rate hikes is the cherry on top.

Traders and investors are starting to wake up to this bullish sentiment. "The market is more convinced that there will be aggressive production cuts and the macro picture has improved a bit. That's positive for prices going forward," Jean-Louis Le Mee, CEO of London-based oil hedge fund Westbeck Capital, told the Wall Street Journal.

Another investor echoed that sentiment in comments to the WSJ. "The Saudis are sincere about higher oil prices, they need to balance their budget. The OPEC cuts will lower stocks so I'm pretty bullish," said Mark Gordon, portfolio manager at the Ascent Oil Fund.

Oil prices are back up to where they were in November, and significant outages from Venezuela in the short run could pave the way for more price increases.

[Feb 04, 2019] What if this is the beginning of the Senneca-Cliff?

Feb 04, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Karl Johnson

x Ignored says: 01/29/2019 at 10:11 am
Whats the beginning of the Senneca-Cliff?
GuyM x Ignored says: 01/29/2019 at 11:50 am
I think it would be this year, if not last year. Ron has said 2019 at one time. Dennis thinks later, around 2025, as I recall.
Hickory x Ignored says: 01/29/2019 at 2:14 pm
Karl- I see that you asked 'what' rather than when.
Seneca Cliff refers to a very rapid decline in a feature (such as global oil production) after it has achieved a peak. This is as opposed to a very slow decline.
Obviously for oil, a fast decline would be catastrophic.

https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2011/08/seneca-effect-origins-of-collapse.html

Guym x Ignored says: 01/29/2019 at 4:00 pm
According to the chart from iRA I posted below, we would be on a Seneca cliff now, without shale oil. Just flattened the drop for awhile.
GuyM x Ignored says: 01/29/2019 at 11:39 am
https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2018/november/crunching-the-numbers-are-we-heading-for-an-oil-supply-shock.html

US production will be close to flat 2019, and if ports are not improved much until late 2020, then 2020 will not be great. After that, I don't see it catching up.

Han Neumann x Ignored says: 01/31/2019 at 10:58 pm
As stated many times on 'theoildrum', State of the art EOR projects deplete oilfields, who without EOR would go in terminal decline much earlier, very rapidly. So a world oilproduction cliff cannot be ruled out, especially if money reserves from oil companies dry up.
Dennis Coyne x Ignored says: 02/01/2019 at 10:32 am
Han Neumann,

Oil prices are likely to rise if there is a shortage of oil, this will mean oil companies will have plenty of financial resources as long as demand is sufficient to consume the oil produced. Not suggesting there will not be a decline, just unlikely there will be a cliff unless oil prices drop, so far there is no evidence of a cliff and given World stock level trend, prices are unlikely to drop further and are more likely to increase in the future.

Han Neumann x Ignored says: 02/03/2019 at 1:33 pm
Dennis,

A cliff is unlikely to happen, I agree.

But to repeat a cliché: depletion never sleeps. Already about fifteen years ago EOR projects were started that extracted oil from (quite) 'past peak' or 'on plateau production' oilfields. EOR projects in case of 'quite past peak' fields, to get 'the last recoverable' barrel out resulting in oil production/day far less than peak production.

I know, the recoverable quantity increases with rising oilprices and better extraction techniques, but still the production/day way past peak will be much less than on peak.

What will happen when oilprices don't increase a lot for the next ten years, for a combination of reasons ?

At a certain point in time all the money in the world couldn't prevent world production decline and the further that point will be in the future, the steeper will be the decline I think. So better sooner than later oilprices begin to increase significantly, to buy some time for the transition to EV's, etc.

I am not an expert in engineering nor in geology, far from that, just expressing a feeling that I got after having read the many posts on theoildrum regarding this matter.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/03/23/is-the-world-sleepwalking-into-an-oil-crisis/#4691a69d44cf

[Feb 03, 2019] Venezuellla as a patch to ailing US frakers

Notable quotes:
"... US need for heavy oil is also due to declines in conventional oil production. Fracking "oil" ( high in condensates) has been used to mask the peak (real) oil declines and also has a lower energy content/barrel and must be blended with heavy oil for the refineries to process it. Thus, "Prices of heavier U.S. grades like Mars Sour, an offshore medium U.S. crude, and Heavy Louisiana Sweet crude have risen as buyers scramble for supply". ..."
"... Mars currently trades at a premium to U.S. crude at $58.19 vs $53.69 for West Texas Intermediate (WTI)". Currently, the US also imports 500,000 barrels of Venezuelan crude a day to meet refinery blending requirements. ..."
"... All other shale fracking regions than the Permian have peaked or are in decline as shown by http://aheadoftheherd.com/Newsletter/2018/Shale-is-dead-long-live-conventional-oil.pdf ..."
Feb 03, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

Krollchem , Feb 2, 2019 7:24:19 PM | link

Update on comment Krollchem@176

This article by Nafeez Ahmed connects the dots that have led to the Venezuela's current political and economic crisis. The factors include:
(1) predatory global capitalism (see Michael Hudson's work);
(2) government mismanagement e.g. price controls;
(3) corruption at all levels (insiders);
(4) droughts (El-Nino), especially in 2015 and tied to lower hydroelectric electricity production;
(5) oil price flux;
(6) US destabilization efforts;
(7) privatization of oil resources;
(8) low Energy Return on (energy) Invested (EROI);
(9) US use of (corporate socialism) subsidized oil prices as a weapon to punish real oil producers
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Warning-Signs-Flash-For-US-Shale.html
(10) Energy waste by gas flaring, which is also common in the US.
https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/venezuelas-collapse-is-a-window-into-how-the-oil-age-will-unravel-f80aadff7786
https://www.texastribune.org/2019/01/24/report-oil-producers-flaring-more-natural-gas-texas-reported/

He neglects other factors such as:
(1) poor soil management practices;
(2) demographics such as some 3 million Columbian citizens fleeing the Fascist Columbian military attacks and putting extra stress on the social programs;
(3) Increasing US needs for Venezuela heavy crude to blend with the light fractions coming from fracking operations (e.g. Eagle Ford light "oil" condensates;
(4) US military need for War to support funding levels (e.g. Smidley Butler's "war is a racket";
(5) batshit crazy neocon and neoliberal ideology and world domination.

The EROI issue is worse that many consider. See Gail Tverberg article "How the Peak Oil Story Could Be "Close," But Not Quite Right". The article points out that wellhead costs do not capture the downstream costs of production and tax capture that bust further reduce the EROI.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2019/01/peak-oil-story-close-not-quite-right.html

US need for heavy oil is also due to declines in conventional oil production. Fracking "oil" ( high in condensates) has been used to mask the peak (real) oil declines and also has a lower energy content/barrel and must be blended with heavy oil for the refineries to process it. Thus, "Prices of heavier U.S. grades like Mars Sour, an offshore medium U.S. crude, and Heavy Louisiana Sweet crude have risen as buyers scramble for supply".

Mars currently trades at a premium to U.S. crude at $58.19 vs $53.69 for West Texas Intermediate (WTI)". Currently, the US also imports 500,000 barrels of Venezuelan crude a day to meet refinery blending requirements.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-venezuela-politics-usa-oil/venezuelan-oil-exports-to-u-s-still-a-primary-source-of-cash-idUKKCN1PJ2D1
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-17/permian-drillers-are-said-to-sell-new-lighter-crude-oil-grade
https://btuanalytics.com/quality-matters-api-gravities-of-major-us-fields/
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Gasoline-Overproduction-Leads-To-Negative-Margins.html

All other shale fracking regions than the Permian have peaked or are in decline as shown by http://aheadoftheherd.com/Newsletter/2018/Shale-is-dead-long-live-conventional-oil.pdf

Added to this EROI problem is that the new US energy production hope from the Permian basin is beset with water shortages. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-The-Permian-Bull-Run-Coming-To-An-End.html

The economics of the US fracking light oil condensates industry is much worse when you consider the offloading of pollution costs (drinking water), health effects, wear and tear of highways from trucking the oil, water and fracking sands (one pound/barrel), climate change from massive methane flaring, volatile organic compounds (VOC) release and earthquake damage from deep injection of the water cut fluids.

[Feb 02, 2019] The Great Oil Paradox Too Many Good Crudes, Not Enough Bad Ones by Javier Blas

This is pretty nasty propaganda, completely detached from reality. Shale oil and condensate are less valuable for refineries and have lower energy content. That's why they are undesirable and refineries in the USA prefer heavy oil, which has a right mixture of hydrocarbons to produce diesel and aviation fuel along with gas,
Feb 02, 2019 | www.bloomberg.com

Texas and other shale-rich states are spewing a gusher of high-quality crude -- light-sweet in the industry parlance -- feeding a growing glut that's bending the global oil industry out of shape.

Refiners who invested billions to turn a profit from processing cheap low-quality crude are paying unheard of premiums to find the heavy-sour grades they need. The mismatch is better news for OPEC producers like Iraq and Saudi Arabia, who don't produce much light-sweet, but pump plenty of the dirtier stuff.

The crisis is Venezuela, together with OPEC output cuts, will exacerbate the mismatch. The South American producer exports some of the world's heaviest oil and Trump administration sanctions announced this week will make processing and exporting crude far more difficult. American refiners are scrambling for alternative supplies at very short notice.

"We still have some holes in our supply plan" over the next 30 days, Gary Simmons, a senior executive at Valero Energy Corp., the largest refiner in the U.S., told investors on Thursday. "We are not taking anything from Venezuela."

Crude isn't the same everywhere: the kind pumped from the shale wells of West Texas resembles cooking oil -- thin and easy to refine. In Venezuela's Orinoco region, it looks more like marmalade, thick and hard to process. Density isn't the only difference -- the sulfur content is also important, dividing the market into sweet and sour crude. Heavy crude tends to have more sulfur than light crude.

As Saudi Arabia, Russia and Canada cut production, and American sanctions force Venezuelan and Iranian exports lower, the market for low-quality crude is feeling the impact.

"The strength in the physical crude market continues, led by sour crude shortages," Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. in London, said echoing a widely held view within the market

[Jan 31, 2019] Venezuela color revolution plot thickens

Notable quotes:
"... UN should be probing Washington and allies for regime-change crimes Identical condemnations from the US and allies and the synchronicity show that Venezuela is being targeted for regime change in a concerted plot led by Washington. ..."
"... It is so disappointing that Americans yet to come to realization that this criminal Jewish Mafia does not standing at the end of the old republic. He is DEEPLY involved, but his STYLE is different. He kills and terrorize the same as Regan, Carter, Clinton, Bush, Obama who have killed millions of people. His sanction is the KILLING MACHINE to topple governments TO STEAL THEIR RESOURCES FOR THE DUMMIES. I have NO respect for the liars who are trying to paint a criminal as someone 'standing against' the deep state. TRUMP IS PART OF THE DEEP STATE, ONLY DUMMIES DO NOT GET IT. ..."
"... No matter the situation in Venezuela, whatever the US government and media are saying is just hostile propaganda as they couldn't give a rat's ass about the people living there. The Libyan people were doing well out of their oil, as were the Iraqis, living in reasonable wealth and security, and look at them now after the US decided to meddle in their affairs. Now after all that, even if something the US government says may be true, why believe it? How many times do you need to be fooled to stop being a fool? ..."
"... The nuttiest member of the Trump administration is UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Her latest neo-nazi stunt was to join protestors last week calling for the overthrow of the democratically elected government of Venezuela. She grabbed a megaphone at a tiny New York rally and told the few "protesters" (organized by our CIA) to say the USA is working to overthrow their President. This was so bizarre that our corporate media refused to report it. ..."
"... Why does everyone make Trump out to be a victim, poor ol Trump, he's being screwed by all those people he himself appointed, poor ol persecuted Trump. Sounds like our Jewish friends with all the victimization BS. ..."
"... By now Trump must be near bat shit crazy. Imagine hundreds of vampires descending on every exposed artery and vein. Does he have a chance in 2020? Not with the people who are around him today ..."
"... Regardless of what the MSM reports, the population is fed-up with all the malarkey, and the same old faces. ..."
"... If he can he should issue an executive order allowing important items like immigration to go directly to public referendum, by passing congress. We're tired of idiots with personal grudges holding our President hostage. Stern times calls for sterner measures. ..."
"... Juan Guaidó is the product of a decade-long project overseen by Washington's elite regime change trainers. While posing as a champion of democracy, he has spent years at the forefront of a violent campaign of destabilization. ..."
Jan 28, 2019 | www.unz.com

Agent76 says: January 30, 2019 at 7:21 pm GMT 100 Words Jan 24, 2019 Catastrophic Consequences What's Really Happening in Venezuela

In this video, we give you the latest breaking news on the current situation in Venezuela with Maduro, the election, and Trump's response.

UN should be probing Washington and allies for regime-change crimes Identical condemnations from the US and allies and the synchronicity show that Venezuela is being targeted for regime change in a concerted plot led by Washington.

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/50989.htm


AnonFromTN , says: January 30, 2019 at 7:58 pm GMT

@Sergey Krieger Negotiations are not necessarily a sign of weakness. However, Maduro should negotiate with the puppet masters, not with the puppet. I don't think that killing that pathetic Guaido is a good strategy: you don't want to make a martyr out of nonentity.
WorkingClass , says: January 30, 2019 at 8:02 pm GMT
And, in effect, I wish for the success of Juan Guaido in his struggle with Maduro, and I support American diplomatic and economic pressure on Maduro to step down. After all, Venezuela is in our back yard with huge oil reserves.

FUCK YOU! Venezuela is not "our" back yard. And the oil does not belong to "us".

anonymous [204] Disclaimer , says: January 30, 2019 at 8:31 pm GMT
[Donald Trump, for all that and for his various faults and miscues, is in reality the only thing standing in the way of the end of the old republic. ]

It is so disappointing that Americans yet to come to realization that this criminal Jewish Mafia does not standing at the end of the old republic. He is DEEPLY involved, but his STYLE is different. He kills and terrorize the same as Regan, Carter, Clinton, Bush, Obama who have killed millions of people. His sanction is the KILLING MACHINE to topple governments TO STEAL THEIR RESOURCES FOR THE DUMMIES. I have NO respect for the liars who are trying to paint a criminal as someone 'standing against' the deep state. TRUMP IS PART OF THE DEEP STATE, ONLY DUMMIES DO NOT GET IT.

The ignorant Jewish mafia 'president' IS MORE DANGEROUS because he like his 'advisors' is totally ILLITERATE. It is a family business dummies.

Are dummies going to hold petty people like Bolton who lie to get money from MEK to buy a new suit and new shoes, is responsible for the policy of the Trump regime where he wages WARS, economic sanction, to starve children to surrender? Then NO ONE Trusts you. MEK people are not more than 20, but are funded by the US colony, Saudi Arabia where MBS transfers money to the Jewish mafia family funding US wars.

Maduro has EVERY SINGLE RIGHT to arrest Juan Guiado, a gigolo who is taking orders from a US and an illiterate 'president', where its dark history known to every living creature on earth. US has massacred millions of people in all continents including Latin America.

Maduro has every single right to arrest him and put on trail and execute him as a traitor and an enemy of the state. How many years the people in Venezuela should suffer for the US 'regime change' and its crimes against humanity in Venezuela to STEAL ITS RESOURCES.

onebornfree , says: Website January 30, 2019 at 9:15 pm GMT
"So let me get this straight: The Russians brought America to its knees with a few facebook ads, but Uncle Sam's concerted and ongoing efforts to overthrow governments around the world and interfere with elections is perfectly fine? Because democracy? Riiiiiiight." :

https://www.corbettreport.com/election-interference-is-ok-when-uncle-sam-does-it-propagandawatch/

Regards, onebornfree

anonymous [204] Disclaimer , says: January 30, 2019 at 9:34 pm GMT
[The last Venezuelan Presidential election was a joke. ]

YOU ARE A JOKE ZIONIST IDIOT.

The Making of Juan Guaidó: How the US Regime Change Laboratory Created Venezuela's Coup Leader

[Juan Guaidó is the product of a decade-long project overseen by Washington's elite regime change trainers. While posing as a champion of democracy, he has spent years at the forefront of a violent campaign of destabilization.]

https://www.globalresearch.ca/the-making-of-juan-guaido-how-the-us-regime-change-laboratory-created-venezuelas-coup-leader/5666971

Illiterate Jewish Mafia 'president' must be kicked out of the office. Hands of Israel is all over the SELECTION.

The ignorant 'president' is MORE DANGEROUS THANT OTHER CRIMINAL US REGIMES because on top of being a criminal, he is ILLITERATE as well.

[In 2009, the Generation 2007 youth activists staged their most provocative demonstration yet, dropping their pants on public roads and aping the outrageous guerrilla theater tactics outlined by Gene Sharp in his regime change manuals.This far-right group "gathered funds from a variety of US government sources, which allowed it to gain notoriety quickly as the hardline wing of opposition street movements," according to academic George Ciccariello-Maher's book, "Building the Commune."

That year, Guaidó exposed himself to the public in another way, founding a political party to capture the anti-Chavez energy his Generation 2007 had cultivated.]

Guaido's behind towards washington criminal elite

map , says: January 30, 2019 at 9:36 pm GMT
@By-tor See, this is the typical lie. Socialism fails, so the socialist blames the outside wrecker for causing the problem. If Moscow freezes, then it is because of the wreckers. If Moscow starves, then it is because of the wreckers.

If Venezuela collapses, then it is because of "sanctions," not the failure of the new socialist economy.

America has the right to lock anyone out of its economy that it wants, for whatever reasons. This should not matter because that nation can still trade with the rest of the world, like China. Venezuela could get everything it wants by simply selling oil to China in exchange for goods. The problem is, there is not enough oil production to do so and other nations are reluctant to replace American investment for fear of losing their assets as well.

Think about how wrong-headed the Chavez policy has been. If the Venezuelans have problems with their local ruling class and want to get rid of them fine do so. But, why go after the American oil company? The Americans don't care who rules Venezuela as long as their contracts are honored. Chavez could have then been a true socialist an allocate a greater dividend to Venezuelans that was previously being hoarded by the ruling class an arrangement similar to what Alaskans have with American oil companies.

But no there was an immediate seizure of assets because the only purpose of socialism is to make the socialist leaders rich. And Chavez and Maduro became very rich indeed.

Hibernian , says: January 30, 2019 at 9:48 pm GMT
@WorkingClass No other nation is in our back yard. They are near neighbors.
Sergey Krieger , says: January 30, 2019 at 10:02 pm GMT
@AnonFromTN I would happily martyr gorbachov , Yeltsin and all their gang. I think everybody would have been far better of then. Same is applied to the puppet. Nikolai II was martyred and things got a lot better. What is important is winning and final outcome, while making some martyrs in the process.
RVBlake , says: January 30, 2019 at 10:11 pm GMT
@Harold Smith Trump's personnel picks are mind-boggling. I cannot see how he disapproves Eliot Abrams for deputy SoS with one breath, then blandly allows Pompeo to appoint him an envoy to a trouble-spot. Bolton, Pompeo, Goldberg et al.
El Dato , says: January 30, 2019 at 10:11 pm GMT
@Sean

NEOCON America does not want Russian bombers in South America.

Real America doesn't give a f*ck. Bombers are so last century, might as well put up machine-gun equipped Union Pacific Big Boys to make it marginally more steampunk and become a real danger for the USA.

EliteCommInc. , says: January 30, 2019 at 10:33 pm GMT
@Tyrion 2 There is not a single complaint here that did not exist before the election or before Pres Chavez.

There are poor management leaders all over the globe. That';s their business. Hey we have some right here in the US I take it your solution is a military coup or better yet a coup fostered by the EU or the OAS, or maybe ASEAN or SDG . . .

jack daniels , says: January 30, 2019 at 10:40 pm GMT
It would be nice if someone simply asked Trump why it is he originally wanted to get along with Russia and pull out of the middle east and generally opposed the "neoconservative" approach and now seems to be hiring neocons and doing what they want. Is he trying to placate Sheldon Adelson and Adelson's lackeys, or what? I don't know of his being asked about this directly.
APilgrim , says: January 30, 2019 at 10:49 pm GMT
Is President Nicolas Maduro stealing the strategic gold reserves of Venezuela?

'Venezuela Has 20 Tons of Gold Ready to Ship. Address Unknown', Patricia Laya and Andrew Rosati, Bloomberg, January 30, 2019, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/venezuela-20-tons-gold-ready-004013962.html

Venezuelan lawmaker Jose Guerra dropped a bombshell on Twitter Tuesday: The Russian Boeing 777 that had landed in Caracas the day before was there to spirit away 20 tons of gold from the vaults of the country's central bank. Guerra is a former central bank economist who remains in touch with old colleagues there. A person with direct knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg News Tuesday that 20 tons of gold have been set aside in the central bank for loading. Worth some $840 million, the gold represents about 20 percent of its holdings of the metal in Venezuela.

Commentator Mike , says: January 30, 2019 at 11:01 pm GMT
@map

No matter the situation in Venezuela, whatever the US government and media are saying is just hostile propaganda as they couldn't give a rat's ass about the people living there. The Libyan people were doing well out of their oil, as were the Iraqis, living in reasonable wealth and security, and look at them now after the US decided to meddle in their affairs. Now after all that, even if something the US government says may be true, why believe it? How many times do you need to be fooled to stop being a fool?

Tyrion 2 , says: January 30, 2019 at 11:02 pm GMT
@EliteCommInc.

No, Chavez had popular legitimacy. Maduro has nothing but force to keep himself in power now. Yes, there's easy definition for the above but Chavismo is decrepit.

Pressure for a reasonable Presidential election is based on that.

peterAUS , says: January 30, 2019 at 11:12 pm GMT
@RVBlake

A guy on ZH explained it well, I guess:

  1. The opposition hates me. I can do no right.
  2. The Trumptards blindly support me. I can do no wrong.
  3. There are not enough independent thinkers to make a difference as the two main sides bitterly fight each other over every minute, meaningless issue.
  4. I can pretty much do as I please without consequence ..like pay off all my buddies and pander to the jews/globalist/elites.
    I'd add: and by doing the last, I could cut a deal with the real TPTBs as to for what happens after I leave White House.
Hibernian , says: January 30, 2019 at 11:21 pm GMT
@Tyrion 2

Chavez had popular support . He felt the need to intimidate opponents from the beginning. Like Bill Bellicheck and Tom Brady feeling the need to cheat.

Pft , says: January 30, 2019 at 11:32 pm GMT
@APilgrim

Makes sense. They owe a big chunk of money to Russia and a payment of 100 million is coming due. Russia gets security for future payments while it holds their gold in a safe place. They may ship the rest to China if they are smart

renfro , says: January 30, 2019 at 11:41 pm GMT
@Carlton Meyer

The nuttiest member of the Trump administration is UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Her latest neo-nazi stunt was to join protestors last week calling for the overthrow of the democratically elected government of Venezuela. She grabbed a megaphone at a tiny New York rally and told the few "protesters" (organized by our CIA) to say the USA is working to overthrow their President. This was so bizarre that our corporate media refused to report it.

She's being paid no doubt by the usual suspects. She is personally 1 million in debt and has signed with a Speakers agency to give speeches for 200,000 a pop.

COLUMBIA, S.C. (WCIV)

"Haley is currently quoting $200,000 and the use of a private jet for domestic speaking engagements, according to CNBC
In October 2018, when Haley resigned, she said, she would be taking a "step up" into the private sector after leaving the U.N. According to a public financial disclosure report based on 2017 data, at the rate quoted for her engagements, just a handful would pay down more than $1 million in outstanding debt that was accrued during her 14 years

renfro , says: January 30, 2019 at 11:43 pm GMT
@peterAUS

3. There are not enough independent thinkers to make a difference as the two main sides bitterly fight each other over every minute, meaningless issue.

Well that is true.

renfro , says: January 30, 2019 at 11:59 pm GMT
Well people you need to explore this move to take over Venezuela in the context of what having that oil control will mean for the US and Israel in the increasingly likely event we blow up Iran and up end the ME for Israel.

Despite Trump selling off half of our US oil reserves last year .. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oil-reserve/u-s-sells-11-million-barrels-of-oil-from-reserve-to-exxon-five-other-firms-idUSKCN1LG2WT ..the US doesn't currently, at present anyway, need to control Venezuela's oil .

So what could happen that might make control of oil rich Venezuela necessary? Why has Venezuela become a Bolton and Abrams project? Why is Netanyahu putting himself into the Venezuela crisis ?

We, otoh, would need all the oil we could get if we blew up the ME, specifically Iran, figuratively or literally. The US signed a MOU with Israel in 1973 obligating us to supply Israel with oil ( and ship it to them) if they couldn't secure any for themselves.

Z-man , says: January 31, 2019 at 12:11 am GMT
@Hibernian I hate those two guys so much, and the owner Kraft also. I'm hoping for a helmet to helmet collision for Brady early in the second quarter with his bell ringing for the rest of the game. (Evil grin)
Z-man , says: January 31, 2019 at 12:14 am GMT
@renfro I have nothing but ill will for that mutt Haley.
By-tor , says: January 31, 2019 at 12:41 am GMT
@Tyrion 2 Yes, the int'l monitors said the elections were fair as Maduro received over 60% of the vote. You think the 'deplorables' of venezuela elected the known US-Wall Street neo-liberal puppet Guaido? No, the US Tape Worm groomed this twerp, all-the-while his backers and paymasters in the American neo-Liberal ruling class claim Russian meddling in the 2016 US elections. The shamelessness and hypocrisy is astounding.
EliteCommInc. , says: January 31, 2019 at 12:47 am GMT
@Tyrion 2 Pres Hugo Chavez's admin was very controversial. And the conditions you speak of have plagued Venezuela even before Pres Chavez came to government.

This really is none of our affair. We don't have a mandate to go about the planet tossing out whoever we think is crazy. He is not a threat to the US. There's no indication that he intends to harm US businesses.

Their polity means their polity. You'll have to do better than he's crazy, mean, a despot, etc. That's for them to resolve.

Johnny Walker Read , says: January 31, 2019 at 12:50 am GMT
@Commentator Mike Seems some will never learn the definition of insanity, especially the NeoCons who have been running America for far too long. I recommend John Perkins "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man" for the less informed among us here today. Maybe at some point they will get a clue.
redmudhooch , says: January 31, 2019 at 1:30 am GMT

I heartily dislike and find despicable the socialist government of Maduro, just as I did Hugo Chavez when he was in power. I have some good friends there, one of whom was a student of mine when I taught in Argentina many years ago, and he and his family resolutely oppose Maduro. Those socialist leaders in Caracas are tin-pot dictator wannabees who have wrecked the economy of that once wealthy country; and they have ridden roughshod over the constitutional rights of the citizens. My hope has been that the people of Venezuela, perhaps supported by elements in the army, would take action to rid the country of those tyrants.

Hard to take this guy seriously when he spouts Fox News level propaganda.

Why does everyone make Trump out to be a victim, poor ol Trump, he's being screwed by all those people he himself appointed, poor ol persecuted Trump. Sounds like our Jewish friends with all the victimization BS.

Its clear that voting no longer works folks, this is an undemocratic and illegitimate "government" we have here. We let them get away with killing JFK, RFK, MLK, Vietnam, we let them get away with 9/11, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Syria. They've made a mess in Africa. All the refugees into Europe, all the refugees from Latin America that have already come from CIA crimes, more will come.
We wouldn't need a wall if Wall St would stop with their BS down there!

You can't just blame Jews, yes there are lots of Jews in Corporate America, bu t not all of them are, and there are lots of Jews who speak out against this. We were doing this long before Israel came into existence. You can't just blame everything one one group, I think Israel/Zionist are responsible for a lot of BS, but you can't exclude CIA, Wall St, Corporations, Banks, The MIC either. Its not just one group, its all of them. They're all evil, they're imperialists and they're all capitalists. I think Israel is just a capitalist creation, nothing to do with Jews, just a foothold in he middle east for Wall St to have a base to control the oil and gas there, they didn't create Israel until they dicovered how much oil was there, and realized how much control over the world it would give them to control it. Those people moving to Israel are being played, just like the "Christian Zionists" here are, its a cult. Most "Jews" are atheists anyhow, and it seems any ol greedy white guy can claim to be a Jew. So how do you solve a "Jewish Problem" if anybody can claim to be a Jew? I think solving the capitalist problem would be a little easier to enforce.

All of the shills can scream about communists, socialists and marxists all they want. Capitalism is the problem always has been always will be. Its a murderous, immoral, unsustainable system that encourages greed, it is a system who's driving force is maximizing profits, and as such the State controlled or aligned with Corporations is the most advanced form of capitalism because it is the most profitable. They're raping the shit out of us, taking our money to fund their wars, so they can make more money while paying little to no taxes at all. Everything, everyone here complains about is caused by CAPITALISM, but nobody dares say it, they've been programmed since birth to think that way.

We should nationalize our oil and gas, instead of letting foreigners come in and steal it, again paying little or no taxes on it, then selling the oil they took from our country back to us. Russia and Venezuela do it, Libya did it, Iraq did it, and they used the money for the people of the country, they didn't let the capitalists plunder their wealth like the traitors running our country. We're AT LEAST $21 trillion in the hole now from this wonderful system of ours, don't you think we should try something else? Duh!

It is the love of money, the same thing the Bible warned us about. Imperialism/globalism is the latest stage of capitalism, that is what all of this is about, follow the money. Just muh opinion

Regime Change and Capitalism
https://dissidentvoice.org/2018/07/regime-change-and-capitalism/

bluedog , says: January 31, 2019 at 1:36 am GMT
@Tyrion 2 From the people fool not by the C.I.A. declaring that well we like the other fellow best for president,after all using the logic you fail to have Hillary could have said call me madam president and leave the orange clown out in the dark,stupid,stupid people
RobinG , says: January 31, 2019 at 2:10 am GMT
@anonymous

"And, in effect, I wish for the success of Juan Guaido in his struggle with Maduro, and I support American diplomatic and economic pressure on Maduro to step down. After all, Venezuela is in our back yard with huge oil reserves."

OMG, Cathey really said that. Is he always such a shit? He certainly has Venezuela completely wrong.

The Making of Juan Guaidó: How the US Regime Change Laboratory Created Venezuela's Coup Leader https://grayzoneproject.com/2019/01/29/the-making-of-juan-guaido-how-the-us-regime-change-laboratory-created-venezuelas-coup-leader/

Larry Wilkerson on the special meeting of the Security Council

Many Countries at UN Oppose Trump Interference in Venezuela

Sergey Krieger , says: January 31, 2019 at 2:15 am GMT
@AnonFromTN This phylosophical questions should not led to no actions. Modern Russia is actually in much better position now than it was in 1913. True. There is never final. Sorry for wrong words choice. Dialectics.
RobinG , says: January 31, 2019 at 2:20 am GMT
@AnonFromTN Tyrion and Sean are both sicko Zio-trolls.
Asagirian , says: January 31, 2019 at 2:25 am GMT
Why not just install the Deep State as president for life? It'd be more honest.
EliteCommInc. , says: January 31, 2019 at 2:38 am GMT
@Wizard of Oz The scenario you describe is an accurate. And requires me to make judgments about a dynamic I am unfamiliar with -- no bite. Several sides to this tale and I have heard and seen it before.

I may however make a call.

In 2017 2/3 of the states in the region chose not to interfere. They have not changed their minds on intervention.

ohh by the way I did ask and here's the familial response:

https://brewminate.com/venezuelans-want-maduro-out-but-oppose-military-intervention-to-remove-him/

EliteCommInc. , says: January 31, 2019 at 2:47 am GMT
@Wizard of Oz https://www.thequint.com/news/world/venezuelans-want-prez-maduro-out-but-oppose-foreign-intervention

https://grayzoneproject.com/2019/01/29/venezuelans-oppose-intervention-us-sanctions-poll/

https://www.thecanary.co/global/world-news/2019/01/29/new-poll-shows-venezuelans-overwhelmingly-oppose-military-intervention-and-us-sanctions/

Just to be fair:

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/venezuelans-multinational-intervention-president-nicolas-maduro-economic-situation/2018/09/17/id/882143/

But reading the data sets makes it clear that what they want is some humanitarian relief. B y and large I have the family telling me to mind my own business, but they would like a meal, some medicine and some water.

Asking helps figuring out what to do.

the grand wazoo , says: January 31, 2019 at 2:59 am GMT
By now Trump must be near bat shit crazy. Imagine hundreds of vampires descending on every exposed artery and vein. Does he have a chance in 2020? Not with the people who are around him today.

Regardless of what the MSM reports, the population is fed-up with all the malarkey, and the same old faces.

In Trump's remaining 2 years he must throw off the parasites, bring in real men, and go to work on infrastructure, health care, and real jobs. He has to out the naysayers, the creeps and the war mongers. Throw Bolton from the train, and divorce Netanyahu and Israel. Appeal directly to the public.

If he can he should issue an executive order allowing important items like immigration to go directly to public referendum, by passing congress. We're tired of idiots with personal grudges holding our President hostage. Stern times calls for sterner measures.

AnonFromTN , says: January 31, 2019 at 3:08 am GMT
@RobinG That would be an easy, almost optimistic explanation: some people are venal enough to say or write anything for money. Pessimistic explanation is that some people who can read and write are nonetheless dumb or brainwashed enough to sincerely believe the BS they are writing.
Anonymous [362] Disclaimer , says: January 31, 2019 at 4:19 am GMT
@therevolutionwas

Can you define what capitalism is ? Once that idea is refined, finessed, and compared to multiple color changes of capitalism, it becomes easier who to fit in the plastic infinitely expandable box of ideas of capitalism starting with the chartered company to patient laws to companies making military hardwares paid by tax payers to tax cut by government to seizure of foreign asset by US-UK to protection of the US business by military forces to selling military gadgets to the countries owned by families like Saudi royals Gulf monarchs and to the African ( American installed ) dictators to printing money .

tac , says: January 31, 2019 at 4:58 am GMT
A great article I posted in another thread few days ago dives deep into who Juan Guaido is and his past grooming for the past 10+ years:

Juan Guaidó is the product of a decade-long project overseen by Washington's elite regime change trainers. While posing as a champion of democracy, he has spent years at the forefront of a violent campaign of destabilization.

https://grayzoneproject.com/2019/01/29/the-making-of-juan-guaido-how-the-us-regime-change-laboratory-created-venezuelas-coup-leader/

Here is another:

A great documentary on the 2002 coup d'etat of Chavez: The Revolution Will Not Be Televised, Chavez, The 2002 Coup

[Jan 31, 2019] Supposedly trump is been wanting to attack Venezuela for a while

Jan 31, 2019 | www.unz.com

Harold Smith , says: January 30, 2019 at 5:43 pm GMT

@AnonFromTN

"Whoever believed that Trump will drain the swamp must feel disappointed."

The thing is, Trump just didn't fail to drain the swamp, he "took the ball and ran with it." Apparently he's an enthusiastic imperialist who gets off on the illegitimate use of military force. (His attack on the Shayrat airbase in Syria should end any debate about that).

Supposedly he's been wanting to attack Venezuela for a while:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/04/trump-suggested-invading-venezuela-report

Most recently, even Lindsey Graham (of all people) had to talk Trump out of invading Venezuela:

https://www.msn.com/en-xl/latinamerica/top-stories/graham-trump-considered-military-action-in-venezuela/ar-BBSQx31

I can understand Trump's die-hard supporters' argument that Trump is being coerced into doing evil things (although I don't agree with it), but how can they explain Trump's apparent enthusiasm?

The only explanation that makes sense to me is that Trump's anti-war/anti-interventionist tweets from 2013 were insincere and his whole presidential campaign was a brazen fraud.

Edit: I just saw your comment #71; so you apparently see it the same way I do.

Tyrion 2 , says: January 30, 2019 at 5:44 pm GMT
@By-tor Maduro is just Venezuelan Mugabe. Has it really come to this? That people on Unz will support any random lunatic as long as he mouths off about America or Israel every now and again?

Oh, but the sanctions! Proper economic sanctions were only very recently applied. The Venezuelan economy was already utterly wrecked by their joke of a government.

Liken the US not trading with Venezuela to a medieval siege if you like, but I suggest you read up on medieval sieges first. Hint: they weren't merely a government run boycott.

Herald , says: January 30, 2019 at 5:45 pm GMT
@follyofwar The Empire has been overreaching for years and it's now well past time it had its grimy grabbing hands chopped off.
Jotham Tiarks , says: January 30, 2019 at 5:47 pm GMT
@anonymous I fully agree with everything you said I was about to post a comment and then saw yours saying exactly what i was wanting to say!
Ilyana_Rozumova , says: January 30, 2019 at 6:06 pm GMT
@DieselChadron OMG (Oh my God) Globalists Made a mistake.
onebornfree , says: Website January 30, 2019 at 6:07 pm GMT
@onebornfree Some all to rare common sense – a writer who understands that both big government Trump and the big government "opposition" to Trump are not, never were , and never will be, "the answer":

"The Real Problem Is The Politicization Of Everything"

" While on the market and in radically decentralized systems, disagreements and polarization are not a problem, centralized political decision-making has in its nature that only one view can prevail. Suddenly, who is in the White House or whether regulation X or Y is passed does matter a great deal, and those with a different opinion than you on it may seem like actual enemies. Within voluntary settings, one can live with people that one disagrees with. All parties curate a way of life that works while living in peace with others.

To regain civility in human interactions and finally treat other human beings as human beings again, we would do well to get politics out of human affairs."

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-30/real-problem-politicization-everything

Very well said.

Regards,onebornfree

Ilyana_Rozumova , says: January 30, 2019 at 6:11 pm GMT
@AnonFromTN Or four the fracking was only Fata Morgana,
Carlton Meyer , says: Website January 30, 2019 at 6:13 pm GMT
For those who think this coup attempt was sudden, here is something from my blog:

Oct 9, 2018 – Ambassador Supports Coup

Few Americans know that our nation imposed harsh economic sanctions on Venezuela because the Neocons want to overthrow its democratic government. They hate that oil rich Venezuela insists on controlling its oil production rather than allowing big American corporations to run things. Almost three years ago, Neocon puppet Barack Obama declared a national emergency to impose sanctions by designating Venezuela an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to national security, and Trump continued sanctions.

The nuttiest member of the Trump administration is UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Her latest neo-nazi stunt was to join protestors last week calling for the overthrow of the democratically elected government of Venezuela. She grabbed a megaphone at a tiny New York rally and told the few "protesters" (organized by our CIA) to say the USA is working to overthrow their President. This was so bizarre that our corporate media refused to report it. Jimmy Dore assembled this great video of CNN presenting their expert calling the President of Venezuela paranoid for saying the USA wants to overthrow his government. A few hours later, a different CNN report documented recent efforts by the USA to overthrow his government!

AnonFromTN , says: January 30, 2019 at 6:16 pm GMT
@Tyrion 2 This is not about Maduro, or Guaido, who is likely an even bigger shit, as he clearly serves foreign masters. Don't you think it should be up to the people of Venezuela to change their president? The US meddling is against every rule of behavior of countries towards other countries. How would you feel if Burkina Faso told you who should be the president of the US? That's exactly how every Venezuelan who has dignity feels, regardless of their opinion of Maduro and his coterie.
bluedog , says: January 30, 2019 at 6:31 pm GMT
@Mr McKenna What did you expect,before the oath was out of his mouth he was busy cutting taxes for the 1%,for Trump is the swamp .
By-tor , says: January 30, 2019 at 6:35 pm GMT
@Tyrion 2 The US has been plotting against Venezuela since the last Wall Street puppet Pres. Rafael Caldera was defeated by Chavez and ownership of oil assets returned to Venezuela thereby cutting out anf angering the NYC-London predatory globalist cabal. Trump's hitmen are now preventing the Venezuelan state from accessing credit and from withdrawing its own money and gold foolishly deposited in US and London banks. The Venezuelan corporate elite act against the general population. You do not fully understand the situation.
peterAUS , says: January 30, 2019 at 6:37 pm GMT
@Johnny Rottenborough

Ethnonationalist stuff is ridiculous, it's stupid on the face of it, it's ridiculous, I've said it from day one. Ethnonationalism is a dead end, it's for losers. Economic nationalism and civic nationalism bind you together as citizens, regardless of your race, regardless of your ethnicity, regardless of your religion

Interesting.

Ah, well .maybe some other time.
If ever.

Johnny Rottenborough , says: Website January 30, 2019 at 6:38 pm GMT
@Digital Samizdat Digital Samizdat -- As civic nationalism is no kind of nationalism and presents no obstacle to race replacement, I imagine Jewry will be happy with it. Jewry will also be happy that Bannon the race realist ('It's been almost a Camp of the Saints-type invasion into Central and then Western and Northern Europe') has been successfully neutered.

[Jan 31, 2019] Venezuela, the Deep State, and Subversion of the Trump Presidency by Boyd D. Cathey

Notable quotes:
"... In February 2017, it was reported that Abrams was Secretary of State Rex Tillerson 's first pick for Deputy Secretary of State , but that Tillerson was subsequently overruled by Trump. Trump aides were supportive of Abrams , but Trump opposed him because of Abrams' opposition during the campaign. ..."
"... On January 25, 2019, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo appointed Abrams as the United States' Special Envoy to Venezuela ." ..."
"... diplomatic and economic ..."
Jan 31, 2019 | www.unz.com

There he was, right there on the stage to the right side of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo who was briefing the press on America's position concerning the recent coup in Venezuela. I rubbed my eyes -- was I seeing what I thought I was seeing?

It was Elliot Abrams. What was HE doing there? After all, back in February 2017, after then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had pushed for his nomination as Deputy Secretary of State, it was President Trump himself who had vetoed his appointment.

Here is how the anodyne account in Wikipedia describes it:

In February 2017, it was reported that Abrams was Secretary of State Rex Tillerson 's first pick for Deputy Secretary of State , but that Tillerson was subsequently overruled by Trump. Trump aides were supportive of Abrams , but Trump opposed him because of Abrams' opposition during the campaign. [emphasis mine]

Abrams during the 2016 campaign had been a NeverTrumper who vigorously opposed Donald Trump and who had strongly attacked the future president's "Make America Great Again," America First foreign policy proposals.

Abrams, a zealous Neoconservative and ardent globalist was -- and is -- one of those foreign policy "experts" who has never seen a conflict in a faraway country, in a desert or jungle, where he did not want to insert American troops, especially if such an intervention would support Israeli policy. He was deeply enmeshed in earlier American interventionist miscues and blunders in the Middle East, even incurring charges of malfeasance.

Apparently, President Trump either did not know that or perhaps did not remember Abrams's activities or stout opposition. In any case, back in 2017 it took an intervention by a well-placed friend with Washington connections who provided that information directly to Laura Ingraham who then, in turn, placed it on the president's desk And Abrams' selection was effectively stopped, torpedoed by Donald Trump.

But here now was Abrams on stage with the Secretary of State.

What was that all about?

Again, I went to Wikipedia, and once again, I quote from that source: " On January 25, 2019, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo appointed Abrams as the United States' Special Envoy to Venezuela ."

Despite President Trump's resolute veto back in February 2017, Abrams was back, this time as a Special Envoy, right smack in the department that President Trump had forbade him to serve in. Did the president know? Had he signed off on this specially-created appointment? After all, the very title "Special Envoy on Venezuela" seems something dreamed up bureaucratically by the policy wonks at State, or maybe by Mike Pompeo.

Then there was the widely reported news, accompanied by a convenient camera shot of National Security Adviser John Bolton's note pad (which may or may not have been engineered by him), with the scribble: "5,000 troops to Colombia."

What gives here?

Last week suddenly there was a coup d'etat in Venezuela, with the head of the national assembly, Juan Guiado, proclaiming himself as the country's new and rightful president, and the theoretical deposition of then-current President Nicolas Maduro. And we were told that this action was totally "spontaneous" and an "act of the Venezuelan people for democracy," and that the United States had had nothing to do with it.

If you believe that, I have an oil well in my backyard that I am quite willing to sell to you for a few million, or maybe a bit less.

Of course, the United States and our overseas intelligence services were involved.

Let me clarify: like most observers who have kept up with the situation in oil-rich Venezuela, I heartily dislike and find despicable the socialist government of Maduro, just as I did Hugo Chavez when he was in power. I have some good friends there, one of whom was a student of mine when I taught in Argentina many years ago, and he and his family resolutely oppose Maduro. Those socialist leaders in Caracas are tin-pot dictator wannabees who have wrecked the economy of that once wealthy country; and they have ridden roughshod over the constitutional rights of the citizens. My hope has been that the people of Venezuela, perhaps supported by elements in the army, would take action to rid the country of those tyrants.

And, in effect, I wish for the success of Juan Guaido in his struggle with Maduro, and I support American diplomatic and economic pressure on Maduro to step down. After all, Venezuela is in our back yard with huge oil reserves.

But potentially sending American troops -- as many as 5,000 -- to fight in a country which is made up largely of jungle and impassible mountains, appears just one more instance, one more example, of the xenophobic internationalism of men like Bolton and the now state department official, Abrams, who believe American boots on the ground is the answer to every international situation. Experience over the past four decades should indicate the obvious folly of such policies for all but the historically blind and ideologically corrupt.

While we complain that the Russians and Chinese have propped up the Maduro government and invested deeply in Venezuela, a country within our "sphere of influence" in the Western Hemisphere (per the "Monroe Doctrine") -- we have done the very same thing, even more egregiously in regions like Ukraine that were integrally part of historical Russia, and in Crimea, which was never really part of Ukraine (only for about half a century) but historically and ethnically Russian. Did we not solemnly pledge to Mikhail Gorbachev, under George H. W. Bush, that if the old Soviet Union would dissolve and let its some fourteen socialist "republics" go their own way, leave the Russian Federation, that we, in turn, would not advance NATO up to the borders of Russia? And then we did the exact opposite almost immediately go back on our word and move our troops and advisers right up to the borders of post-1991 Russia?

From mid-2015 on I was a strong supporter of Donald Trump, and, in many ways, I still am. In effect, he may be the only thing that stands in the way of a total and complete recouping of power by the Deep State, the only slight glimmer of light -- that immovable force who stands up at times to the power-elites and who has perhaps given us a few years of respite as the managerial class zealously attempts to repair the breach he -- and we -- inflicted on it in 2016.

My major complaint, what I have seen as a kind of Achilles' Heel in the Trump presidency, has always been in personnel, those whom the president has surrounded himself with. And my criticism is measured and prudential, in the sense that I also understand what happens -- and what did happen -- when a billionaire businessman, a kind of bull-in-the-china shop (exactly what was needed), comes to Washington and lacks experience with the utterly amoral and oleaginous and obsequious political class that has dominated and continues to dominate our government, both Democrats and, most certainly, Republicans.

The wife of a very dear friend of thirty-five years served in a fairly high post during the Reagan administration. Before her untimely death a few years ago, she recounted to me in stark detail how the minions and acolytes of George H. W. Bush managed to surround President Reagan and subvert large portions of the stated Reagan Agenda. Reagan put his vice-president effectively in charge of White House personnel: and, as they say, that was it, the Reagan Revolution was essentially over.

In 2016 a number of friends and I created something called "Scholars for Trump." Composed mostly of academics, research professors, and accomplished professionals, and headed by Dr. Walter Block, Professor of Economics at Loyola-New Orleans, and Dr. Paul Gottfried, Raffensperger Professor of Humanities at Elizabethtown College, in Pennsylvania, we attempted to gather real professed believers in the stated Trump agenda. We received scant mention (mostly negative) in the so-called "conservative" press, who proceeded to smear us as "ultra-right wingers" and "paleo-conservatives." And, suddenly, there appeared another pro-Trump list, and that one composed largely of the same kinds of professionals, but many if not most of whom had not supported Donald Trump and his agenda during the primary campaigns.

What was certain was that many of the amoral time-servers and power elitists had decided that it was time for them to attach themselves to Trump, time for them to insinuate themselves into positions of power once again, no matter their distaste and scorn for that brash billionaire upstart from New York.

Remember the (in)famous interview that the President-elect had with Mitt Romney who desperately wanted to be Secretary of State? Recall the others also interviewed -- some of whom we remembered as Donald Trump's opponents in the campaign -- who came hat-in-hand to Trump Tower looking for lucrative positions and the opportunity once again to populate an administration and direct policy? And, yes, work from within to counteract the stated Trump agenda?

It would be too facile to blame the president completely: after all, the professional policy wonks, the touted experts in those along-the-Potomac institutes and foundations, were there already in place. And, indeed, there was a need politically, as best as possible, to bring together the GOP if anything were to get through Congress. (As we have seen, under Paul Ryan practically none of the Trump Agenda was enacted, and Ryan at every moment pushed open borders.)

Our contacts did try; we did have a few associates close to the president. A few -- but only a few -- of our real Trump Agenda supporters managed to climb aboard. But in the long run we were no match for the machinations of the power elites and GOP establishment. And we discovered that the president's major strength -- not being a Washington Insider -- was also his major weakness, and that everything depended on his instincts, and that somehow if the discredited globalists and power-hungry Neoconservatives (who did not give Trump the time of day before his election) were to go too far, maybe, hopefully, he would react.

And he has, on occasion done just that, as perhaps in the case of Syria, and maybe even in Afghanistan, and in a few other situations. But each time he has had to pass the gauntlet of "advisers" whom he has allowed to be in place who vigorously argue against (and undercut) the policies they are supposed to implement.

Donald Trump, for all that and for his various faults and miscues, is in reality the only thing standing in the way of the end of the old republic. The fact that he is so violently and unreservedly hated by the elites, by the media, by academia, and by Hollywood must tell us something. In effect, however, it not just the president they hate, not even his rough-edged personality -- it is what he represents, that in 2016 he opened a crack, albeit small, into a world of Deep State putrefaction, a window into sheer Evil, and the resulting falling away of the mask of those "body snatchers" who had for so long exuded confidence that their subversion and control was inevitable and just round the corner.

President Trump will never be forgiven for that. And, so, as much as I become frustrated with some of the self-inflicted wounds, some of the actions which appear at times to go flagrantly against his agenda, as much as I become heartsick when I see the faces of Elliot Abrams -- and Mitt Romney -- in positions where they can continue their chipping away at that agenda, despite all that, I continue to pray that his better instincts will reign and that he will look beyond such men, and just maybe learn that what you see first in Washington is usually not what you'll get.


Taras77 , says: January 29, 2019 at 10:02 pm GMT

Abrams did it for me!

I cannot imagine a more evil person to be allowed back into govt than this man, who is more evil than he looks.

It is over, in my mind, with the trump admin; nothing has been done about the long list of crimes committed by the obama gang during the election and after. Nothing has been done about seth rich, I would add michael hastings, and the long list of clinton "suicides" and the clinton crimes. the list is endless with no progress.

The dimos in doj, fbi, etc have completely out-manuevered trump and he really has no junk yard dog to protect him-guliani is a joke, even if he is sober as he claims to be.

Big sigh, depressing.

anonymous [340] Disclaimer , says: January 30, 2019 at 12:24 am GMT
Scholars? For Trump? Still?

Linh Dinh on this website (June 12, 2016) predicted both the election outcome and its meaninglessness. He had by then, of course, been blackballed by Scholars, Inc., and is now helping to run a recycling operation back in Vietnam. But he has emerged as one of the top Unz columnists, most of his Heritage American attackers who couldn't see past their DNA having slunk away.

Conversely, go read the comment thread under Mr. Buchanan's latest. People who used to fall for the "we/us/our" conflation of their country and Uncle Sam are waking up, due largely to the President in whom you still place your scholarly hope. We may not be scholars, but we understand that the blood of people in places like Iraq, Libya, Syria, and soon enough Venezuela is on the hands of those who endorse the warmongering imperialism of Exceptionalia. Your scholarly enabling, such as:

"And, in effect, I wish for the success of Juan Guaido in his struggle with Maduro, and I support American diplomatic and economic pressure on Maduro to step down. After all, Venezuela is in our back yard with huge oil reserves."

is naive at best. As a scholar, did you support the "economic pressure" rationalized by Secretary of State Albright that killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, many of them children?

Those of you who still expect the Unz readership to give two sh ** s about Donald Trump or anyone else in the Washington Puppet Show are fast losing your relevance around here.

Ma Laoshi , says: January 30, 2019 at 1:09 am GMT
Yup, Personnel is Policy; always has been. The scale of it all really precludes the kind of benefit-of-the-doubt explanation the author struggles to formulate. It's not that Trump tried to do the right thing but some war-hawks, jews, and Wall-Street shysters got through regardless. Those were the only people that needed apply because Trump wasn't considering anybody else. One simply has to conclude that the people that currently surround him are indeed "his kind of people". And let's not forget that after a crash course in the realities of government he replaced Tillerson and notorious torturer McMaster because they were not hawkish, not pro-Israel, enough .

What evidence is there that your definition of "doing the right thing" coincides with Trump's anyway. Yes he made some non-interventionist noises during the campaign, but that was mostly during the primary before he'd kissed Adelson's ring in exchange for the shekels. But he was also "a very militaristic guy" who was all for "taking the oil" and who nonstop hated on Iran. Face it, it was just the Obama playbook: throw an incoherent mishmash to the proles in the hope that they remember only those parts they liked.

Isn't Trump's CV rather more illuminating on who he is than his campaign rhetoric: casino operator and pro-wrestling MC. He gets off on playing the rubes.

peterAUS , says: January 30, 2019 at 1:31 am GMT
Excellent, and timely article.

From mid-2015 on I was a strong supporter of Donald Trump, and, in many ways, I still am. In effect, he may be the only thing that stands in the way of a total and complete recouping of power by the Deep State

Donald Trump, for all that and for his various faults and miscues, is in reality the only thing standing in the way of the end of the old republic.

.despite all that, I continue to pray that his better instincts will reign and that he will look beyond such men, and just maybe learn that what you see first in Washington is usually not what you'll get.

Scholar, a? Man, you ..Anyway.

Impressive.

Carlton Meyer , says: Website January 30, 2019 at 5:43 am GMT
The US military has kept some 3000 soldiers in Columbia for years. Maybe that has grown to 5000, but Bolton's yellow pad note was a simple trick to fool simpletons. Invading Venezuela would require at least 50,000 US troops.

Americans are quick to denounce socialists, especially those in the US military who thrive in a socialist US military. Most Americans do not realize that their police, firefighters, schools, most universities, roads, water, and electricity are products of socialism. If you have an emergency in the USA, you dial 9-11 for socialists to help you. Everyone thinks that is great!

From my blog:

Jan 27, 2019 – A Clumsy Slow Coup

Corporate America media has not reported basic facts about the attempted takeover of Venezuela. The Deep State has tried to overthrow the popular, elected government of Venezuela for a decade as it gradually nationalized its oil production. Several coup attempts failed so the USA imposed sanctions to punish the people for voting wrong. Sanctions caused shortages and inflation but the elected government remains in power.

In the past, the USA conducted coups by bribing Generals to conduct a quick military takeover, and always denied participation. The Trump administration gave up on deception and began a clumsy, slow coup. I suspect Trump's new CIA appointed attorney general told Trump that he had the power to appoint foreign presidents, so last week he openly appointed a new president for Venezuela. The Venezuelan army openly backs the existing president so nothing changed. The UN did not recognize Trump's puppet president nor did any other major world power. These facts do not appear in our corporate media, although the internet provides reality via a Paul Craig Roberts article. (posted at unz.com)

Trump has now ordered other nations to send payments for oil purchases to a bank account controlled by his new president. This infuriates foreign governments because they know oil shipments will stop if they fail to pay the legitimate government of Venezuela, and oil prices will rise worldwide as they scramble to buy oil elsewhere. Meanwhile, a massive humanitarian and refugee crisis is building as the result of this economic embargo.

Ilyana_Rozumova , says: January 30, 2019 at 6:09 am GMT
I do not know how the fracking is going in the winter. I have read somewhere, that yields from fracking are going down. also that fracking companies are moving down to Texas.Also I do not know the state of strategic reserves, But I definitely suspect that moves in Venezuela were planed long before. so I have to presume that this is all about price of oil.
Trump quite a while ago, quite eagerly said something about moving on Venezuela.
Trump can be easily triggered by any economic subject by which US gains. But I do suspect that in this case it could be economic necessity. (What would be a real shame.)
follyofwar , says: January 30, 2019 at 4:04 pm GMT
@Taras77 I agree Taras. Although I much enjoyed reading Boyd Cathey's essay, sadly, I think he remains too optimistic. With the D's back in charge of the House, and the R's impotent in the Senate, (McConnell as majority leader is a joke), Trump's stated agenda is all over. He got nothing in his first two years besides the traditional GOP tax cut for the rich. And he waited far too long to get serious about the wall. Yes, Koch-man Paul Ryan opposed it, but surely Trump could have tried harder to get enough R votes to override him. His only option now, unless Pelosi budges a little, would be to declare a National Emergency on Feb 15. There is no way he could shut down the government again. Let's see how that goes.

However I disagree with Realist's comment. With Trump being attacked viciously on all sides, I don't understand how anyone could think he is part of the Deep State. I think Victor Davis Hanson got it right when he called Trump a "Tragic Hero."

AnonFromTN , says: January 30, 2019 at 4:20 pm GMT
Whoever believed that Trump will drain the swamp must feel disappointed. The US foreign policy is run by the swamp now, like it always was. The US uses full range of classical gangster tactics against Venezuela: blackmail, theft of assets, threats, etc. The US tries to instigate yet another "color revolution" to bring yet another puppet to power in yet another country. The only difference is, Maduro resists. But that's the difference in the victim country, not in DC.

[Jan 31, 2019] Venezuella and the price of oil

Jan 31, 2019 | www.unz.com

Ilyana_Rozumova , says: January 30, 2019 at 6:09 am GMT

I do not know how the fracking is going in the winter. I have read somewhere, that yields from fracking are going down. also that fracking companies are moving down to Texas.Also I do not know the state of strategic reserves, But I definitely suspect that moves in Venezuela were planed long before. so I have to presume that this is all about price of oil.
Trump quite a while ago, quite eagerly said something about moving on Venezuela.
Trump can be easily triggered by any economic subject by which US gains. But I do suspect that in this case it could be economic necessity. (What would be a real shame.)
Alfred , says: January 30, 2019 at 9:14 am GMT
@Ilyana_Rozumova It is not clear whether you are saying that Trump is trying to raise or lower oil prices.

If he wants to lower oil prices then why is he making it difficult for Iran to sell its oil?

If he wants to raise oil prices then why does he want the big US oil companies in Venezuela to sort out that country's oil business and raise exports?

I suspect he, and those around him, have no idea what they want to achieve. They are simply trying to demonstrate their "power" and ability to change regimes. To give the Monroe Doctrine a bit of oxygen. To scare the European vassals.

Realist , says: January 30, 2019 at 10:39 am GMT

Venezuela, the Deep State, and Subversion of the Trump Presidency

You're being rolled. Trump is part of the Deep State. Otherwise explain Bolton, Pompeo, Abrams and all the other dickheads Trump has hired.

Realist , says: January 30, 2019 at 10:44 am GMT
@Taras77 Correct, Trump is a member of the Deep State. Trump's election and big talk is a charade. It is hard to believe anyone would not see Trump as a chimera after all his bullshit.
Realist , says: January 30, 2019 at 10:53 am GMT

After all, Venezuela is in our back yard with huge oil reserves.

There it is .the reason the US is involved in Venezuelain politics .we want their oil.

renfro , says: January 30, 2019 at 7:29 am GMT
@Ilyana_Rozumova

Also I do not know the state of strategic reserves, But I definitely suspect that moves in Venezuela were planed long before

Trump is doing the same thing he did in his businesses ..using 'other people's money.assests' to cover his ass.
Now picture this ..sanctions on Iran, sanctions on Russia, sanctions on Venezuela + rising US interest rates + a slowing economy + half of US oil reserves sold to cover government spending.
Hope people get use to riding a bike when this perfect storm hits.

WH Proposes Selling Half the U.S. Strategic Oil Reserve
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-proposes-selling-half-the-us-strategic-oil-reserve
President Trump's proposal to slim down the national debt includes a plan to sell off about half of America's emergency oil stockpile -- made up of 687.7 million

And sold

U.S. sells 11 million barrels of oil from reserve to Exxon, five other firmshttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oil-reserve/u-s-sells-11-million-barrels-of-oil-from-reserve-to-exxon-five-other-firms-idUSKCN1LG2WT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Six companies, including ExxonMobil Corp, bought a total of 11 million barrels of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a Department of Energy document showed on Friday, in a sale timed to take place ahead of U.S. sanctions on Iran that are expected to remove oil from the global market.
Sale of the oil from the reserve was mandated by previous laws to fund the federal government and to fund a drug program, but the Trump administration took the earliest available time to sell the crude under the law.
The sale's timing "would appear to reflect President Donald Trump's concern regarding oil market tightness associated with the reinstatement of Iran oil sanctions," analysts at ClearView Energy Partners said after the sale was announced on August 20.

Any wonder they want to control Venezuela oil?

Amon , says: January 30, 2019 at 12:07 pm GMT
@Carlton Meyer A slight correction is needed here. The UK, Germany, Israel and France has signed onto this.

Just as all four of them were more than willing to help smash Libya to dust so they could steal their oil fields and all that gold Gaddafi had hoarded up for his independent gold back African currency.

Truly, Venezuela will be a Libya 2.0.

Honesty , says: January 30, 2019 at 1:17 pm GMT
I think what is happening in Venezuela is not an isolated event. It is connected to a broad "connect the dots" South American strategy. The other dots are:

1) Bolsonaro's election victory.
2) Changes in structural relationship with Argentina, Chile, Colombia.
3) Cuba isolation.
4) Bolivia isolation.
5) And finally the recent unexpected dam collapse in Brazil, followed by IDF's offer to fly in hundreds of soldiers to help.

S America is about to become the next Middle East (Syria). Weapons proliferation. War profiting. Mass scale disruption. Already a profound refugee crisis. And all the traditional war hawks there – with IDF leading the charge.

Harold Smith , says: January 30, 2019 at 1:28 pm GMT

"And, in effect, I wish for the success of Juan Guaido in his struggle with Maduro, and I support American diplomatic and economic pressure on Maduro to step down. After all, Venezuela is in our back yard with huge oil reserves."

So in effect, you wish for the success of the globalists in their relentless struggle with the concept of national sovereignty and the rule of law, and you support American imperialist efforts to overthrow yet another democratically elected government, no matter how many people have to die in the process. After all, the victim country is relatively close and its huge oil reserves make for a reasonable pretext.

jacques sheete , says: January 30, 2019 at 2:23 pm GMT

Venezuela, the Deep State, and Subversion of the Trump Presidency

Also on UR, link to,

Bolton: We're Taking Venezuela's Oil
Yesterday, Trump's National Security Advisor John Bolton made the US position clear in a FoxNews interview: Washington will overthrow the Venezuelan
RON PAUL LIBERTY REPORT

nsa , says: January 30, 2019 at 3:12 pm GMT
@Johnny Rico "How many barrels a day does Venezuela pump?"
Something like 50,000 barrels per day. And pumped is perhaps the wrong word more like mined. Venezuelan oil is locked up in surface tar sands along the Orinoco River and of very low quality, rich in metals such as vanadium which catalyze sulfur into sulfuric acid rotting out engines and turbines if not cleaned up. It is actually sold as a emulsion with about 25% water to get the stuff to flow. The Canadian tar sands now produce something like 500,000 barrels per day. Try driving through the Alberta tar sands to see mommie earth ravaged without conscience and birds murdered en masse landing on their vast polluted effluent ponds but then the loathsome colonial denizens of our Canadian satrap to the north don't care as long as we let them have a couple of hockey teams and legal pot.
AnonFromTN , says: January 30, 2019 at 4:20 pm GMT
Whoever believed that Trump will drain the swamp must feel disappointed. The US foreign policy is run by the swamp now, like it always was. The US uses full range of classical gangster tactics against Venezuela: blackmail, theft of assets, threats, etc. The US tries to instigate yet another "color revolution" to bring yet another puppet to power in yet another country. The only difference is, Maduro resists. But that's the difference in the victim country, not in DC.
By-tor , says: January 30, 2019 at 4:28 pm GMT
@Tyrion 2 Venezuela is under US sanctions that substitute for a medieval siege, and Venezuela's comprador ruling class are Wall Street loyalists, not nationalists. The US is trying to starve the population of Venezuela and economically ruin them wherein a US puppet gov't will enable predatory Americans to buy coveted resources on the cheap. This usurpation of int'l law and criminality was pulled off by Obama-Nuland-Soros in Ukraine in 2014. The majority of Venezuelan 'deplorables' who are bearing the brunt of US sanctions know well what Uncle Sham's man-on-the-ground Guaido is up to, and have, hopefully, organized and armed themselves with rifles to defend their lives and property from invaders.
follyofwar , says: January 30, 2019 at 4:30 pm GMT
@Amon It's possible that Venezuela will be another Libya. But I question whether the US Imperialists could get away with weeks of saturation bombing on a country in the same hemisphere, just to its south. I find it hard to believe that the rest of South America would take this lying down. Then there's the presence of Russia and China, who both have substantial investments in the country. Will they just sit on their hands too?

With its jungles and mountains, any US invasion would be more like Vietnam, I think. This could be, and I hope it is, a Bridge Too Far for the Empire. Empires always eventually overreach.

Rags , says: January 30, 2019 at 4:36 pm GMT
But, bbbuuuttt, I thought we were gonna be energy independent and export oil all over the globe. What need have we of some heavy crude in Venezuela if this forecast is at hand? Just hedging the BS ya know.
Sergey Krieger , says: January 30, 2019 at 4:44 pm GMT
Maduro and Chavez are as socialist as I am capitalism fan. They are indeed populist dictators and regime is still capitalistic. They just rely upon lumpens and military to hold onto power. Things wound not change for the better and probably for worse if coup succeeds though. Now, it is neither USA nor author's business to interfere into other countries affairs as Americans quite obviously only make things worse and what if when USA finally kicks the bucket as United country others start interfering in USA affairs ? I actually see it coming considering demographic and cultural realities on the ground in USA. Once $usd is gone as reserve currency the process as Gorbachiv stated would start.
republic , says: January 30, 2019 at 4:46 pm GMT

Last week suddenly there was a coup d'etat in Venezuela,

actually the use of the term coup d'etat is incorrect. A coup occurs when the military disposes the government and replaces it with a military government.

This has not yet occurred. It has not yet been successful, what is actually happening is the beginning of a civil war, the outcome which is not clear.

The situation bears a certain similarity with the beginning of the Syrian civil War.

If it follows the Ukrainian scenario like what took place in 2014, then I would expect some type of situation where foreign mercenaries are employed to create divisions in the population, like firing on the opposition supporters. It is highly likely that some sort of false flag incident will be use to fire up the situation.

If the military were to revolt and replace it with civilian rule it would be called a pronunciamiento

AnonFromTN , says: January 30, 2019 at 5:16 pm GMT
Trump just congratulated self-proclaimed US puppet Guaido in Venezuela. So, he can no longer pretend to be an innocent bystander: he showed himself to be a willing participant in the criminal activities of the swamp.

Three notes on the bright side. One, the Empire is getting ever more reckless, no longer bothers even with fig leaves. That looks like an overreach typical of empires in their death throws. Two, Maduro, despite his obvious failings, appears to be prepared to defend his country against banditry. So, maybe he is not just a piece of shit, like Yanuk in Ukraine. We'll see soon enough. Three, Erdogan, who the same gangsters tried to overthrow not too long ago, remembers that and voiced his support of Maduro in no uncertain terms, despite Turkey being a NATO member.

[Jan 29, 2019] Bloodbath In Oil Gas Stocks Could Continue by Nick Cunningham

Notable quotes:
"... In the meantime, the strategy for oil and gas executives to appease investors is to focus on "quick cash, quarterly payouts and fast talk," Sanzillo says. "Either way the stocks lack a long-term value rationale." ..."
"... Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. shale industry has been over-hyping the production potential from their wells. The WSJ compared well-productivity estimates from shale companies to those from third parties. After looking at the production data at thousands of wells and how much oil and gas those wells were on track to produce over the course of their lifespans, the WSJ found that company forecasts seemed to be misleading. ..."
"... Schlumberger, for instance, has reported that secondary shale wells near older wells in West Texas have been 30 percent less productive than the initial wells, the WSJ found. Also, many shale companies used data from their best wells and extrapolated forward, projecting enormous growth numbers that have not panned out. ..."
Jan 04, 2019 | finance.yahoo.com

Of course, that is largely just a reflection of the sharp decline in oil prices. But the share prices of most oil and gas companies are also largely based on oil price movements. So, the steep slide in oil prices in the final two months of 2018 led to disaster for investors in energy stocks.

"The stock market went to hell in December. And when it got there, it found that the energy sector had already moved in, signed a lease and decorated the place," Tom Sanzillo, Director of Finance at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), wrote in a commentary .

The energy sector was at or near the bottom of the S&P 500 for the second year in a row, Sanzillo pointed out. And that was true even within segments of the oil and gas industry. For instance, companies specializing in hydraulic fracturing fell by 30 percent, while oil and gas supply companies lost 40 percent. "The fracking boom has produced a lot of oil and gas, but not much profit," Sanzillo argued.

Looking forward, there are even larger hurdles, especially in the medium- to long-term. Oil demand growth is flat in developed countries and slowing beginning to slow in China and elsewhere. The EV revolution is just getting started.

The last great hope for the oil industry is to pile into petrochemicals , as oil demand for transportation is headed for a peak. But profits in that sector could also prove elusive. "The industry's rush to invest in petrochemicals to maintain demand for oil and gas is likely to continue, but the profit potential in this sector is more limited than oil and gas exploration, and is likely to keep the energy sector at or near the bottom of the S&P 500," Sanzillo concluded.

In the meantime, the strategy for oil and gas executives to appease investors is to focus on "quick cash, quarterly payouts and fast talk," Sanzillo says. "Either way the stocks lack a long-term value rationale."

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. shale industry has been over-hyping the production potential from their wells. The WSJ compared well-productivity estimates from shale companies to those from third parties. After looking at the production data at thousands of wells and how much oil and gas those wells were on track to produce over the course of their lifespans, the WSJ found that company forecasts seemed to be misleading.

Related: 2019 Could Make Or Break OPEC

"Two-thirds of projections made by the fracking companies between 2014 and 2017 in America's four hottest drilling regions appear to have been overly optimistic, according to the analysis of some 16,000 wells operated by 29 of the biggest producers in oil basins in Texas and North Dakota," reporters for the WSJ wrote . "Collectively, the companies that made projections are on track to pump nearly 10% less oil and gas than they forecast for those areas, according to the analysis of data from Rystad Energy AS, an energy consulting firm."

Schlumberger, for instance, has reported that secondary shale wells near older wells in West Texas have been 30 percent less productive than the initial wells, the WSJ found. Also, many shale companies used data from their best wells and extrapolated forward, projecting enormous growth numbers that have not panned out.

The upshot is that shale companies will have to step up spending in order to hit the promised production targets. However, so many of them have struggled to turn a profit, and the recent downturn in oil prices has put even more pressure on them to rein in costs.

That raises questions about the production potential not just from individual shale companies, but also from the U.S. as a whole.

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

[Jan 29, 2019] Will Oil Prices Rise in 2019?

The problem is that the lower average price of oil, the less capex are for the year. And that creates problems in two to three years period.
As long as shale oil producers are capable to produce junk bond, they will continue extraction even in prize zone below $60, where they can't recover the costs. Cheerleaders from IEA will continue to produced nice rising curves.
Jan 08, 2019 | community.oilprice.com

Tom Kirkman

23 hours ago, William Edwards said:

Rather than troubling you by disagreeing, Tom, may I request, instead, your basis for selecting $70 as the point where the economy and oil producers meet? My method uses step-wise accumulation of production, from lowest cost to highest cost, to reach the required 100 MMB/D of worldwide total demand. The reputable numbers for that exercise suggest lower than $60/B. As Canadian Oil Sands producers will confirm, the producer does not always cover his cost. So the $60 number is higher than the practical top. (This explains why the actual average price over history is $40.)

The reality is that as long as you have spare producing capacity, which we always do, that can produce oil at less than $10/B as your competition, you can forget recovering your higher cost unless you can hoodwink the traders. Of course, the hoodwinked traders' motto is "Fooled me once, shame on you! Fooled me twice, shame on me!

Nicely put, William.

The niggling thing about the $40 average price over history is that the bulk of the easy, cheap oil appears to be extracted already. Low-hanging black oil fruit already harvested.

Which means that extraction costs will increase.

So... while $40 is historically accurate for oil, that number is not static, and seems it must inevitably rise, as it becomes increasingly expensive to extract the black oil fruit from further up the tree - easy pickings gone already.

U.S. Shale Oil pundits generally seem to agree that $50 or so is the breakeven point for WTI region light tight oil. Removing existing and earlier compounded debts from the equation, I reckon that sounds about correct. Add in debts though, and it's probably closer to $80.


Osama

Hi!

Here are my thoughts on oil prices for 2019 (short term). Would love to have your thoughts on it.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4231469-will-oil-prices-rise-2019

Tom Kirkman

I fully expect oil prices [Brent] to rise to around $70 average for 2019. WTI is a totally different animal.

https://community.oilprice.com/topic/4587-hmmm-sounds-oddly-familiar-70-oil-could-be-right-around-the-corner/?do=embed

https://community.oilprice.com/topic/4220-oil-slide-worries-traders-relax-this-should-get-sorted-by-year-end/?do=embed

If anybody here hasn't heard my hundreds of ad nauseum comments this entire dang year about my hope for $65 oil [Brent] for 2018 and my hope for $70 oil [Brent] for 2019, please raise your hand, and I can reiterate yet again .

Meanwhile, I'll gently remind that I already warned repeatedly this year that $80 is simply not sustainable, and that the higher that oil goes above $70 then the harder the eventual crash would likely be.

And over to the news, would everyone kindly lay off guzzling the pots of coffee and stop artificially panicking. Near as I can tell, $70 - ish oil for 2019 still seems about the right balance between the global economy and oil producers. I hope the current over-reaction on the oil price See Saw will settle back to around $70 by end of this year or early next year. Just my opinion; as always, you are free to disagree.

Karl V

hellenicshippingnews.com said yesterday , that the average price for WTI had been $65 and $72 for Brent in year 2018 , with a high at 3rd October and low at 24th December .

Overall , I would predict a lower average for 2019 , than for 2018 ; average prices like during years 2015 and 2016 ($50) .

Opec+ might throttle supply , but if Iran sanctions will screw further , Opec+ will be able to push more oil onto the markets .

Venezuela might get online again , since I can't believe , that China and Russia will stay neutral in regards to their investments .

Brazil will deliver more , and Mexico probably could reduce domestic oil theft .

Canada is only capable to throttle production , due to authoritie's measures , if drillers are left to heir own devices , the production in Canada will rise again .

Without any governmental regulations worldwide (International Socialism) oil could cost even $20 and less .

Nevertheless , WTI and Brent likely are worth more than many crudes , since they have short ways to their markets : The lower the transportation costs , the higher the oil price .

Electric Vehicles are still not yet deployed much , but in 10 years may make up to 10% of cars in use worldwide .

Power-To-Gas and -To-Gasoline will likely become deployed in the next 10 years to come , increasing the pressure on crude oil prices .

From tecson.de : https://www.tecson.de/historische-oelpreise.html

Osama
On 1/5/2019 at 1:49 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

I fully expect oil prices [Brent] to rise to around $70 average for 2019. WTI is a totally different animal.

https://community.oilprice.com/topic/4587-hmmm-sounds-oddly-familiar-70-oil-could-be-right-around-the-corner/?do=embed

https://community.oilprice.com/topic/4220-oil-slide-worries-traders-relax-this-should-get-sorted-by-year-end/?do=embed

If anybody here hasn't heard my hundreds of ad nauseum comments this entire dang year about my hope for $65 oil [Brent] for 2018 and my hope for $70 oil [Brent] for 2019, please raise your hand, and I can reiterate yet again .

Meanwhile, I'll gently remind that I already warned repeatedly this year that $80 is simply not sustainable, and that the higher that oil goes above $70 then the harder the eventual crash would likely be.

And over to the news, would everyone kindly lay off guzzling the pots of coffee and stop artificially panicking. Near as I can tell, $70 - ish oil for 2019 still seems about the right balance between the global economy and oil producers. I hope the current over-reaction on the oil price See Saw will settle back to around $70 by end of this year or early next year. Just my opinion; as always, you are free to disagree.

What are your thoughts on the recent news regarding Shale wells drying fast than they should...I read in WSJ.

Also, $70 doesn't looks that impossible too...yes.

Summer Driving Season and if and when a thaw between U.S. and China's trade war....can certainly take oil to the said level.

NWMan
On 1/5/2019 at 9:39 AM, Karl V said:

Without any governmental regulations worldwide (International Socialism) oil could cost even $20 and less  .

Oil could only cost $20, if Saudi Arabia decided to supply the world with oil by itself - a large amount of our oil supply is from offshore Nigeria, Angola, Gulf of Mexico (Mexico - USA), North Sea, Brazil, Oil sands, Oil shale, - these locations require $60 oil minimum.

Osama
On 1/7/2019 at 11:20 AM, NWMan said:

Oil could only cost $20, if Saudi Arabia decided to supply the world with oil by itself - a large amount of our oil supply is from offshore Nigeria, Angola, Gulf of Mexico (Mexico - USA), North Sea, Brazil, Oil sands, Oil shale, - these locations require $60 oil minimum.

Well....Mr. @William Edwards here have explained the pricing in a very cogent manner. I'd find the link of the discussion and post it.here.

tetonper

If you are buying oil indexes price of oil is important. If you are buying stocks the question is, will prices go up or down on stocks. There are a lot of companies that are making a profit at the lower prices. Furthermore there is a lot of companies with significant cash on hand. They also have low P/E, some in single digits and others in low double digits. Combine this with the fact that with a little research many of these stocks are rated sells or at best hold and analysts are rating them as bearish or extremely bearish, there is a good opportunity for some significant increase. Especially in a market that is still very high. Granted if the market tumbles again, it is hard to go against the tide. Looks like there is a lot of money to be made in some of these stocks. Some of them will assuredly be targets for bigger companies wanting to consolidate acreage, others wanting stronger positions in the Permian, Eagle Ford and SCOOP/STACK plays. Over the next month and maybe 2 there will be a lot of money made. There is also a lot of insider trading going on, such as the purchase of $4 million in CHK by an exec. Not a fan of CHK but there are a lot of people who have made a lot of money on them in recent weeks. The reality is oil prices probably won't plunge even if the stock market goes south in an ugly fashion again, and with Saudis, Iran and reduction in rigs in the shale plays across America, market sentiment will probably carry prices at least through mid-Feb. That is plenty of time for oil and gas stocks to claw back some gains based on the big fall they have had. Just my thoughts after 40 years of working in and watching this industry.

Tom Kirkman
On 1/7/2019 at 10:51 AM, Osama said:

Wha  t  are your thoughts on the recent news regarding Shale  wells drying fast than they should...I read in WSJ. 

https://community.oilprice.com/topic/4652-happy-dance-us-shale-oil-slowdown/?do=embed

William Edwards

Will Prices Rise in 2019? Yes, and fall, and end the year much lower than most observers expect. Hint: IMO 2020.

William Edwards
On 1/5/2019 at 1:49 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

I fully expect oil prices [Brent] to rise to around $70 average for 2019. WTI is a totally different animal.

https://community.oilprice.com/topic/4587-hmmm-sounds-oddly-familiar-70-oil-could-be-right-around-the-corner/?do=embed

https://community.oilprice.com/topic/4220-oil-slide-worries-traders-relax-this-should-get-sorted-by-year-end/?do=embed

If anybody here hasn't heard my hundreds of ad nauseum comments this entire dang year about my hope for $65 oil [Brent] for 2018 and my hope for $70 oil [Brent] for 2019, please raise your hand, and I can reiterate yet again .

Meanwhile, I'll gently remind that I already warned repeatedly this year that $80 is simply not sustainable, and that the higher that oil goes above $70 then the harder the eventual crash would likely be.

And over to the news, would everyone kindly lay off guzzling the pots of coffee and stop artificially panicking. Near as I can tell, $70 - ish oil for 2019 still seems about the right balance between the global economy and oil producers. I hope the current over-reaction on the oil price See Saw will settle back to around $70 by end of this year or early next year. Just my opinion; as always, you are free to disagree.

Rather than troubling you by disagreeing, Tom, may I request, instead, your basis for selecting $70 as the point where the economy and oil producers meet? My method uses step-wise accumulation of production, from lowest cost to highest cost, to reach the required 100 MMB/D of worldwide total demand. The reputable numbers for that exercise suggest lower than $60/B. As Canadian Oil Sands producers will confirm, the producer does not always cover his cost. So the $60 number is higher than the practical top. (This explains why the actual average price over history is $40.) The reality is that as long as you have spare producing capacity, which we always do, that can produce oil at less than $10/B as your competition, you can forget recovering your higher cost unless you can hoodwink the traders. Of course, the hoodwinked traders' motto is "Fooled me once, shame on you! Fooled me twice, shame on me!

Tom Kirkman
23 hours ago, William Edwards said:

Rather than troubling you by disagreeing, Tom, may I request, instead, your basis for selecting $70 as the point where the economy and oil producers meet? My method uses step-wise accumulation of production, from lowest cost to highest cost, to reach the required 100 MMB/D of worldwide total demand. The reputable numbers for that exercise suggest lower than $60/B. As Canadian Oil Sands producers will confirm, the producer does not always cover his cost. So the $60 number is higher than the practical top. (This explains why the actual average price over history is $40.) The reality is that as long as you have spare producing capacity, which we always do, that can produce oil at less than $10/B as your competition, you can forget recovering your higher cost unless you can hoodwink the traders. Of course, the hoodwinked traders' motto is "Fooled me once, shame on you! Fooled me twice, shame on me!

Nicely put, William.

The niggling thing about the $40 average price over history is that the bulk of the easy, cheap oil appears to be extracted already. Low-hanging black oil fruit already harvested.

Which means that extraction costs will increase.

So... while $40 is historically accurate for oil, that number is not static, and seems it must inevitably rise, as it becomes increasingly expensive to extract the black oil fruit from further up the tree - easy pickings gone already.

U.S. Shale Oil pundits generally seem to agree that $50 or so is the breakeven point for WTI region light tight oil. Removing existing and earlier compounded debts from the equation, I reckon that sounds about correct. Add in debts though, and it's probably closer to $80.

William Edwards
23 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Nicely put, William.

The niggling thing about the $40 average price over history is that the bulk of the easy, cheap oil appears to be extracted already. Low-hanging black oil fruit already harvested.

Which means that extraction costs will increase.

So... while $40 is historically accurate for oil, that number is not static, and seems it must inevitably rise, as it becomes increasingly expensive to extract the black oil fruit from further up the tree - easy pickings gone already.

U.S. Shale Oil pundits generally seem to agree that $50 or so is the breakeven point for WTI region light tight oil. Removing existing and earlier compounded debts from the equation, I reckon that sounds about correct. Add in debts though, and it's probably closer to $80.

May I differ on one point? Low-hanging fruit is forever! I do no know for sure, since my x-ray vision fails below 5000 ft, how much cheap oil lies below the Saudi (and Iraq and Iranian) deserts. But I do know two things. 1) I have been told for forty years that the proven reserves in Saudi Arabia are 300 Billion barrels. It has not changed even though 10,000,000 B/D are pumped out continuously. But I do not have to know. I only need to know if it will ever run out. I am sure that it will not. The oil under the desert will, someday, be worth no more than the sand that covers the desert. 2) Quantity of reserves is like spare capacity. As long as there is enough, it matters not how much more than "enough" exists. As long as the Middle East reserves are not running at full capacity and fully depleted, $10 oil will be available. Must I remind you that the stone age did not run out of stones? Or the nuclear age run out of uranium? Better replaces inferior.

[Jan 23, 2019] Venezuela Oil Sanctions Likely to Hit Some U.S. Refiners Hard - Bloomberg

Jan 23, 2019 | www.bloomberg.com

Some U.S. Refiners Hard

By
Lucia Kassai , Jennifer A Dlouhy , and David Marino
‎January‎ ‎23‎, ‎2019‎ ‎5‎:‎18‎ ‎PM Venezuela Oil Sanctions Likely to Hit Some U.S. Refiners Hard
By
Lucia Kassai , Jennifer A Dlouhy , and David Marino
, ‎January‎ ‎23‎, ‎2019‎ ‎5‎:‎18‎ ‎PM
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg

Refiners in Texas and Louisiana would be hard hit by sanctions on Venezuelan crude under consideration at the White House, a move that would leave U.S. oil companies struggling to find alternative supplies.

President Donald Trump recognized Juan Guaido as the interim president of Venezuela on Wednesday in the most provocative move yet against the leftist regime of Nicolas Maduro. Maduro responded by breaking diplomatic relations with the U.S., giving American diplomats 72 hours to leave the country. The Trump administration has drafted a slate of sanctions but hasn't decided whether to deploy them, said people familiar with the matter. Earlier this month, White House officials warned U.S. refiners that sanctions were being considered, and advised them to seek alternative sources of heavy crude. Some U.S. refiners worried about sanctions experimented with alternatives last year before ultimately returning to Venezuelan crude.

The hardest-hit would be Citgo Petroleum Corp., the refining arm of Petroleos de Venezuela SA , or PDVSA, the state-run oil company. Citgo imported the most Venezuelan crude in the first 10 months of 2018, followed by Valero Energy Corp.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Phillips 66 haven't processed Venezuelan crude in their U.S. refineries since the U.S. imposed financial sanctions against the country and PDVSA in August 2017. Marathon Petroleum Corp., Total SA and Motiva Enterprises LLC cut intake by more than a half during that period, and as Venezuelan oil production slumped to the lowest levels seen since the 1940s.

Oil companies have urged the Trump administration not to limit imports of Venezuelan oil, warning the action could disadvantage Gulf and East Coast refiners designed to handle the country's heavy crude, while also causing gasoline prices to rise.

[Jan 22, 2019] Saudi trick before the cut in 2019

Notable quotes:
"... That works out to be 320,000 barrels per day. Saudi production increased by 384,000 barrels per day during November. So Saudi's November increase was mostly just emptying their storage tanks. ..."
Jan 22, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Energy News says: 01/21/2019 at 8:03 am

2019-01-21 (JODI Data) Saudi Arabia crude oil inventories declined by -9.6 million barrels in November
Chart on Twitter https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dxb2106X0AEVusm.jpg
Ron Patterson says: 01/21/2019 at 8:27 am

That works out to be 320,000 barrels per day. Saudi production increased by 384,000 barrels per day during November. So Saudi's November increase was mostly just emptying their storage tanks.

And from looking at your chart, it looks like the 135,000 barrel per day increase in October was from the same source.

Saudi cuts start from a base of 10,633,000 barrels per day. That is almost their exact production in October. And your chart shows Saudi inventories had been dropping for months. Saudi had obviously been preparing to "cut" production from a level of production they reached by emptying their storage tanks.

[Jan 21, 2019] IEA OPEC+ Cuts Put Floor Under Oil Prices

Jan 21, 2019 | oilprice.com

OPEC released its Oil Market Report in recent days, which showed that the cartel slashed output by 750,000 bpd in December – sharp reductions that came before the deal even went into effect. Saudi Arabia led the way with 468,000 bpd in reductions, but its efforts were aided by the involuntary losses from Iran (-159,000 bpd), Libya (-172,000 bpd) and Venezuela (-33,000) bpd.

In fact, those three countries have accounted for massive output reductions over the past two months. The OPEC+ deal is using October as a baseline, calling for 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) in reductions, and the group is well on their way thanks to turmoil in just a few countries. Over the course of November and December, Iran has lost 561,000 bpd, Libya has lost 190,000 bpd, and Venezuela's output fell by 58,000 bpd. Taken together, the involuntary outages exceed 800,000 bpd.

[Jan 14, 2019] Seventy dollars per barrel for the end of the 2019 looks entirely reasonable price for some experts

But that probably does not not including possible "back channel" from the US government to major banks which allow them to finance unprofitable oil extraction.
Notable quotes:
"... $70/b by the end of 2019 is very reasonable [estimate] and actually similar to many of the major banks. The $55/b average expectation of oil executives according to Dallas Fed is too low in my opinion. ..."
Jan 14, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

GuyM

x Ignored says: 01/13/2019 at 1:52 pm
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Could-Oil-Prices-Rise-By-25-Per-Barrel-In-2019.html

Not too unreasonable. Higher than most.

Dennis Coyne x Ignored says: 01/13/2019 at 4:29 pm
GuyM,

Agree, Rapier is very good. $70/b by the end of 2019 is very reasonable [estimate] and actually similar to many of the major banks. The $55/b average expectation of oil executives according to Dallas Fed is too low in my opinion. Rapier is spot on (within $5/b of being correct) imo.

GuyM x Ignored says: 01/13/2019 at 5:03 pm
I think the inventory draws will be much deeper than most expect, so it could be higher.
Dennis Coyne x Ignored says: 01/14/2019 at 8:06 am
GuyM,

Much depends on what ROI is acceptable for an oil company, if they require a 15% ROI, then the average 2017 Permian Basin well (average cost full cycle assumed to be $9.5 million) needs $66/b at refinery gate ($62/b at wellhead) to meet that hurdle, EUR is about 411 kb.

Fernando L x Ignored says: 01/14/2019 at 4:08 pm
See how my old $63 per barrel model is not that bad after all? Right now it's a bit higher, about $70.

[Jan 14, 2019] Peak Oil Review 14 January 2019

Notable quotes:
"... The news that the Saudis will cut even more production than specified in their recent pledge in hopes of raising world prices to $80 a barrel was an important part of last week's price jump. Hopes that the US and China would settle their trade dispute during on-going talks was also an important factor in the recent price jump. ..."
"... While the US economy has been bumping along nicely in recent months, the same is not true for the other major centers of economic power – China and Europe. ..."
"... The Limits to Growth ..."
Jan 14, 2019 | mailchi.mp

Oil prices continued to climb last week and are now some $10 a barrel higher than they were just before Christmas when recent lows were set. Prices now have retraced about 30 percent of the $35 a barrel drop that took place between late September and late December. Part of the recent price correction likely is due to technical factors such as closing out long positions in the futures markets. The news that the Saudis will cut even more production than specified in their recent pledge in hopes of raising world prices to $80 a barrel was an important part of last week's price jump. Hopes that the US and China would settle their trade dispute during on-going talks was also an important factor in the recent price jump.

Looming over the talk about OPEC+ production cuts and how fast US shale oil production might grow are the prospects for the global economy. A major recession could drive the demand for oil so low that even current prices would be difficult to maintain. While there have always been people convinced that a major economic crash is in the offing, in recent weeks there has been a noticeable increase in the number and stridency of these predictions.

While the US economy has been bumping along nicely in recent months, the same is not true for the other major centers of economic power – China and Europe. The Washington Post headlines that "Economic growth is slowing all around the world," citing declines in the equity markets; sputtering German factories, and Chinese retail sales growing at their slowest pace in 15 years. Even Beijing is looking for its GDP to grow by 6-6.5 percent this year which is way off from the heady days of double digits ten years ago.

Eurozone economic forecasts fell last Monday again after a survey of economists found that GDP is expected to grow just below 1.6 percent this year, 0.4 percentage points lower than an already conservative estimate from March. A new report from the World Bank, citing a variety of data, including softening international trade and investment, ongoing trade tensions, and financial turmoil concludes that "the outlook for the global economy in 2019 has darkened."

Among the darker forecasts for the future are those that speculate on a global depression on the scale of the 1930s where GDPs fall by 10 to 25 percent. Others are saying that the global economy may be approaching " The Limits to Growth " as discussed in the famous 1972 book.

... ... ...

Virendra Chauhan of Energy Aspects told CNBC last week that "$50 oil is not a level at which US producers can generate cash flow and production growth, so we do expect a slowdown." In a Bloomberg radio interview John Kilduff, founding partner of Again Capital Management, said "we were getting into the zone where U.S. shale producers stop making money particularly when you sort of add in all the costs, not just the pure say drilling and extraction. It's going to start to get tough for them right now."

... ... ...

Iran : Iran's crude exports dropped to 1 million b/d in November from 2.5 million b/d in April, taking exports back to where they stood during the 2012-2016 sanctions. According to three companies that track Iranian exports, Tehran's crude shipments remained below 1 million b/d in December and are unlikely to exceed that level in January. Tracking

... ... ...

Iraq : Baghdad posted its highest monthly export total to date in December and, combined with Kurdistan, set a nationwide annual record of 4.15 million b/d -- more than 100,000 b/d above the previous record, set in December 2016. The government said on Friday it is committed to the OPEC+ output-cutting deal and would keep its oil production at 4.513 million b/d for the first half of 2019

... ... ...

Saudi Arabia : According to OPEC officials, Saudi Arabia is planning to cut crude exports to around 7.1 million b/d by the end of January in hopes of lifting oil prices above $80 a barrel.

... ... ...

Libya: Tripoli plans to pump 2.1 million b/d of crude oil by 2021 if the security situation improves, the chairman of the National Oil Corporation said last week. The plan would represent a doubling of the current rate of production, which currently stands at 953,000 b/d.

... ... ....

4. Russia

Moscow has already lowered its oil output by around 30,000 b/d compared with October volumes, which is used as the baseline under the latest OPEC/non-OPEC crude production agreement. Russian energy minister Novak said Friday: "We are gradually lowering output; our plan is that overall production in January will be 50,000 b/d less than in October."

[Jan 14, 2019] Norway's Oil Production To Fall To 30-Year Low

Notable quotes:
"... Last year, oil production in Norway fell to 1.49 million barrels per day (bpd), down by 6.3 percent compared to the 1.59 million bpd production in 2017, the oil industry regulator, the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD), said in its annual report this week. Oil production this year is forecast to drop by another 4.7 percent from last year to reach in 2019 its lowest level in thirty years -- 1.42 million bpd, the NPD estimates show. ..."
"... However, the Norwegian oil regulator warned that "resource growth at this level is not sufficient to maintain production of oil and gas at a high level after 2025. Therefore, it is essential that more profitable resources are proven in the next few years." ..."
"... The industry's problem is that after Johan Sverdrup and Johan Castberg there haven't been major discoveries. ..."
Jan 14, 2019 | www.zerohedge.com

Norway's Oil Production To Fall To 30-Year Low

by Tyler Durden Mon, 01/14/2019 - 14:17 9 SHARES Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via Oilprice.com,

Despite cost controls, increased efficiency, and higher activity offshore Norway, oil production at Western Europe's largest oil producer fell in 2018 compared to 2017 and is further expected to drop this year to its lowest level since 1988.

Last year, oil production in Norway fell to 1.49 million barrels per day (bpd), down by 6.3 percent compared to the 1.59 million bpd production in 2017, the oil industry regulator, the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD), said in its annual report this week. Oil production this year is forecast to drop by another 4.7 percent from last year to reach in 2019 its lowest level in thirty years -- 1.42 million bpd, the NPD estimates show.

As bad as it sounds, this year's expected low production is not the worst news for the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) going forward.

Oil production is expected to jump in 2020 through 2023, thanks to the start up in late 2019 of Johan Sverdrup -- the North Sea giant, as operator Equinor calls it. With expected resources of 2.1 billion -- 3.1 billion barrels of oil equivalent, Johan Sverdrup is one of the largest discoveries on the NCS ever made. It will be one of the most important industrial projects in Norway in the next 50 years, and at its peak, the project's production will account for 25 percent of Norway's total oil production, Equinor says.

The worst news for Norway's oil production, as things stand now, is that after Johan Sverdrup and after Johan Castberg in the Barents Sea scheduled for first oil in 2022, Norway doesn't have major oil discoveries and projects to sustain its oil production after the middle of the 2020s.

The NPD started warning last year that from the mid-2020s onward, production offshore Norway will start to decline "so making new and large discoveries quickly is necessary for maintaining production at the same level from the mid-2020s."

In the report this week, NPD Director General Bente Nyland said:

"The high level of exploration activity proves that the Norwegian Shelf is attractive. That is good news! However, resource growth at this level is not sufficient to maintain a high level of production after 2025. Therefore, more profitable resources must be proven, and the clock is ticking".

Norwegian oil production in 2018 was expected to drop compared to the previous year, but the decline "proved to be greater than expected," the NPD said, attributing part of the production fall to the fact that some of the newer fields are more complex than previously assumed, and certain other fields delivered below forecast, mainly because fewer wells were drilled than expected.

In October 2018, Germany's Wintershall warned that its Maria oil and gas field off Norway was not fully meeting expectations due to issues with water injection. Those issues haven't been solved yet, NPD's Nyland told Reuters this week.

Exploration activity in Norway considerably increased in 2018 compared to 2017, with 53 exploration wells spud, up by 17 wells compared to the previous year. Based on company plans, this year's exploration activity is expected to remain high and around the 2018 number of wells spud, the NPD says.

The key reasons for higher exploration activity have been reduced costs, higher oil prices lifting exploration profitability, and new and improved seismic data on large parts of the Shelf, the NPD noted.

However, the Norwegian oil regulator warned that "resource growth at this level is not sufficient to maintain production of oil and gas at a high level after 2025. Therefore, it is essential that more profitable resources are proven in the next few years."

Norway still holds a lot of oil under its Shelf, and those remaining resources could sustain its oil and gas production for decades to come. The industry's problem is that after Johan Sverdrup and Johan Castberg there haven't been major discoveries.

According to the NPD's resource estimate, nearly two-thirds of the undiscovered resources lie in the Barents Sea.

"Therefore, this area will be important for maintaining production over the longer term," the regulator said.

Operators on the NCS have made great efforts to try to make even smaller discoveries profitable by hooking them to existing platforms and production hubs. However, these smaller finds alone can't offset maturing production -- Norway needs major oil discoveries, and it needs them soon , considering that the lead time from discovery to production is several years.

[Jan 14, 2019] Chinese crude oil imports are up almost ten percent in one year

Jan 14, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Energy News x Ignored says: 01/14/2019 at 6:22 am

Chinese crude oil imports up +9.9% higher in full year 2018 compared to FY 2017.
The month of December up +29.9% higher than Dec 2017

2019-01-14 OilyticsData
Another big crude import number from China (2nd consecutive month of imports above 10 MMB/D). Low oil prices and startup of mega refineries such as RongSheng and Hengli is helping to keep these numbers near record levels.(Source; GAC China)
Chart https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dw3fk2GXcAUZ_Vu.jpg
Oilytics https://twitter.com/OilyticsData

[Jan 13, 2019] Did Trade Talks Impact Oil-Weighted Stocks More than Oil by Robert Scott

Notable quotes:
"... All of these oil-weighted stocks are part of the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF ( XOP ). They have production mixes of at least 60.0% in liquids based on their latest quarterly production data. Liquids include crude oil, condensates, and natural gas liquids. ..."
Jan 10, 2019 | marketrealist.com
Oil-weighted stocks

The following oil-weighted stocks could be the most sensitive to US crude oil's movements. They might be impacted the most by oil's price movement based on their correlations with US crude oil active futures in the trailing week:

image001

Impact of trade talks

In the trailing week, US crude oil active futures rose 12.5%. Occidental Petroleum was the third-largest gainer on our list of oil-weighted stocks. The top gainers, Callon Petroleum ( CPE ) and Whiting Petroleum ( WLL ) rose 30.5% and 20.6%, respectively, in the trailing week despite having a mild negative correlation with oil prices. The trade talks between the US and China might have caused these stocks to increase. In the previous part, we discussed that easing trade war concerns might be behind the rise in oil prices. ConocoPhillips had the highest correlation with oil. ConocoPhillips has risen 4.8% -- the lowest among our selected oil-weighted stocks.

All of these oil-weighted stocks are part of the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF ( XOP ). They have production mixes of at least 60.0% in liquids based on their latest quarterly production data. Liquids include crude oil, condensates, and natural gas liquids.

[Jan 13, 2019] Catherine Austin Fitts – Federal Government Running Secret Open Bailout

Highly recommended!
Questionable, but still interesting perspective. Ignore marketing crap -- clearly there is marketing push within this presentation -- she wants your subscriptions. "This is Main Street vs Wall Street" dichotomy sounds plausible. Neoliberalism is, in essence, is the restoration of power of financial oligarchy.
But the idea of secret open bailout might explain why shale oil became so prominent despite high cost of producing it: Wall Street was subsidised via backchannels for bringing price downand supporting shale companies by the US goverment
Jan 12, 2019 | www.youtube.com

$21 trillion in "missing money" at the DOD and HUD that was discovered by Dr. Mark Skidmore and Catherine Austin Fitts in 2017 has now become a national security issue. The federal government is not talking or answering questions, even though the DOD recently failed its first ever audit.

Fitts says, "This is basically an open running bailout. Under this structure, you can transfer assets out of the federal government into private ownership, and nobody will know and nobody can stop it. There is no oversight whatsoever. You can't even know who is doing it. I'm telling you they just took the United States government, they just changed the governance model by accounting policy to a fascist government. If you are an investor, you don't know who owns those assets, and there is no evidence that you do. . . . If the law says you have to produce audited financial statements and you refuse to do so for 20 years, and then when somebody calls you on it, you proceed to change the accounting laws that say you can now run secret books for all the agencies and over 100 related entities."

In closing, Fitts says, "We cannot sit around and passively depend on a guy we elected President. The President cannot fix this. We need to fix this. . . . This is Main Street versus Wall Street. This is honest books versus dirty books. If you want the United States in 10 years to resemble anything what it looked like 20 years ago, you are going to have to do it, and there is no one else who can do it. You have to first get the intelligence to know what is happening."

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Catherine Austin Fitts, Publisher of "The Solari Report." Donations: https://usawatchdog.com/donations/

Stay in contact with USAWatchdog.com: https://usawatchdog.com/join/

All links can be found on USAWatchdog.com: https://usawatchdog.com/secret-money-...

Bob T 20 hours ago

Greg, with all due respect I don't you understand what CAF is saying. Forget about a dollar reset. The fascists, using the Treasury, Exchange Stabilization Fund, HUD, DOD and any agency they choose, have turned the US government into a gigantic money laundering operation. And they maintain two sets of books - the public numbers are a complete sham. Any paper assets held by private citizens are not secure, are likely rehypothecated, and when convenient can be frozen or siezed by these fascists in Washington. There is no limit to how many dollars the FED can create secretly and funnel out through the ESF/Treasury to prop up and bail out any bank, black ops, pet project, mercenary army or paper assets they choose. The missing $21 trillion is probably a drop in the bucket as there is no audit and no honest books for us to examine. In sum, all paper asset pricing in dollars is a fraud and a sham. Any paper assets you think you own, whether it be stocks, bonds, or real estate are pure illusion: they can be repriced or stolen at any time; in reality, you own nothing. To the man and woman on the street I say this: get out of paper, get out of these markets and convert to tangibles in your physical possession - and do it secretly and privately, avoid insurances, records, paper trails. This mass defrauding of the American people by this corrupt government in Washington will come crashing down when the US dollar is displaced from reserve status; this is what China and Russia and the BRICS are setting the stage for: world trade without the US dollar. When this happens, your dollars will become virtual toilet paper and all of your paper assets will go poof.

D Loydel 18 hours ago (edited)

"We have to fix this". Ok how does the individual fix this? Private armies are running around doing whatever private armies do and I, the one man, is suppose to fix this. Please, will someone tell us what we are suppose to do, specific instructions not a mix of large words that say " we must fix this", damn, we need a leader. Greg you ask almost every person you interview what the middle class should be doing to protect themselves and you never get a "real" answer, just a dance around. Also you ask numerous people what this coming change is going to look like and again, just silence or dance music, no answers. Damn we need a leader. Your trying very hard to give us information that will help us weather the coming storm, so thank you for all you do, and you do more than anyone else out there.

Forrest Byers 19 hours ago

Question, why in part do I feel I am being lied to? Is it subscription hustle or is it, don't you believe your lying eyes!

Without knowing exactly what is what, anyone who would've watched Herbert Walker Bush's funeral with reactions from those who received cards, whether they be Bush family, the Clintons, the Obamas and entourage. Jeb Bush went from being proud and patriotic to panic like the funeral that he was at was for the whole family.

Joe Biden looked like he had a major personal accident and no way to get to the bathroom for cleanup.

George W. Bush after being asked a question, of which the answer was, "Yep" then proceeded to appear resigned and stoic! What ever was on those cards essentially amounted to, for all those receiving a card, "the gig is up" and it appears they all damn well knew it.

So, Catherine Austin Fitts, explain your, "Trump is colluding with the Bushies," I would say, that Canary in this mine of inquiry is dead. I'm just an old disabled Vietnam vet of plebeian background and certainly not a revolving door Washington DC Beltway patrician, so any explanation needs to be delivered in slow, logical step-by-step progression for I have not mastered the art of selling the sizzle in hopes that the dupes will later pay for the steak. I prefer, Greg, when you actually get more combative with Ms. Fitts. Make America, great again and do so, in the name of the Lord Jesus Christ, Amen.

sell siliconvalley 19 hours ago

35 min: Fitts gives a great synopsis of the problem. She never deviates in all of her interviews. greg doesn't seem to understand at all. She repeats herself MULTIPLE TIMES and greg is still asking the same irrelevant PREPPER questions. IT DOES NOT MATTER WHAT ASSETS YOU HOLD GREG, AND THAT INCLUDES GOLD!!!! WHEN YOU'RE EXISTING IN A TYRANNICAL SYSTEM THAT STEALS AT WILL FROM ITS' CONSTITUENCY YOU CAN'T actually OWN ANYTHING!!!! lord! only so many ways to say

Andy Mak 17 hours ago

She lost credibility when she said Trump has "made a deal with the Bushes." That defies logic. The Bushes made a deal with Trump! Trump has gained full control of the military with a $ 1 1/2 trillion war chest. Trump and Putin are putting the China toothpaste back in the tube.

Karen Lydon 19 hours ago

This woman clearly knows nothing about the plan..she has not even mentioned that the world bank president has resigned who was appointed by obumma. And that is HUGE. She was in government in the corruption, but she doesn't know how things will be fixed..she's not in that loop of current things in the new reset..shes coming from her own perceptions

A T 20 hours ago

This woman always make me sick to my stomach. She comes out and says a bunch of scary stuff and offers no solution. If it's too much for just one person, then we the people need to take control. We don't need a central bank. We need local and state banks like the Bank of North Dakota then we can migrate over to them and then shut down the Fed.

[Jan 13, 2019] Mismatch of the USA refining capacities and the supply of oil in the market

Jan 13, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Energy News x Ignored says: 01/12/2019 at 2:24 pm

2019-01-11 (Bloomberg) Saudi and Canadian cuts are leaving world hungry for heavy crude
Refiners along the Gulf Coast and in the Midwest invested billions of dollars in cokers and other heavy-oil processing units over the past three decades anticipating supplies of light oil would become scarce while heavy crude from Canada's oil sands, Venezuela and Mexico would grow. Instead, the opposite occurred.
The shale revolution, as well as new offshore supplies form Brazil and West Africa, caused a surge of light oil, while supplies from Venezuela to Mexico declined. Canada's growth has been stymied by delays in getting new pipelines built.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/saudi-and-canadian-cuts-are-leaving-world-hungry-for-heavy-crude-1.1197259

[Jan 13, 2019] Indian consumption continues to grow

Jan 13, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Energy News

x Ignored says: 01/11/2019 at 7:57 am
India – Consumption of Petroleum Products (Without LPG or PetCoke)(kt/day)
December 2018 up +7.01% higher than December 2017
Average full year 2018 up +6.80% higher than full year 2017
Chart https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DwoYp5xWsAA_vRh.jpg
India Light Distillates Consumption (shown in chart)
Average full year 2018 up +9.74% higher than full year 2017
Chart https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DwoY_yjX4AA-S9K.jpg
India Middle Distillates Consumption
Average full year 2018 up +3.92% higher than full year 2017
Energy News x Ignored says: 01/11/2019 at 3:51 pm
The increase in barrels is +220 kb/day year/year (without LPG or Petcoke)

2019-01-11 (Bloomberg) The International Energy Agency, which expects the country to be the fastest-growing oil consumer through 2040, cut its 2018 demand forecast for India at least two times. The agency estimated India's oil demand growth at 245,000 bpd in 2018 and 235,000 bpd in 2019.
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2019/1/11/india-oil-demand-rises-from-four-year-low-as-cash-ban-impact-fades

[Jan 13, 2019] UAE energy minister says average oil price in 2018 was $70 a barrel

Jan 13, 2019 | finance.yahoo.com

ABU DHABI (Reuters) - United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said on Saturday the average oil price in 2018 was $70 a barrel.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other leading global oil producers led by Russia agreed in December to cut their combined oil output by 1.2 million barrels per day to balance the oil market starting from January.

"Today we look at an average year of around $70 for Brent," Mazrouei told an industry news conference in Abu Dhabi, adding that this level would help encourage global oil investments. An energy ministry spokesman said the minister was referring to the average oil price in 2018.

[Jan 13, 2019] WTI needs to be closer to $70 barrel induce interest in additional capital spedings.

Jan 13, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

GuyM

x Ignored says: 01/12/2019 at 2:09 pm
http://energyfuse.org/u-s-shale-taps-brakes-with-wti-below-50/

Same source of info which is the Dallas Fed. Only, this one discusses costs more. As, was discussed here, previously, WTI needs to be closer to $70 barrel to induce interest.

[Jan 13, 2019] Canada's Crude Oil Production Cuts Are Unsustainable by Haley Zaremba

I especially like the phase "This directive was particularly surprising in the context of Canada's free market economy" That's really deep understanding of the situation ;-) . It is so difficult to understand that Canada as a large oil producer, needs higher oil prices and it does not make sense from the point of market economy to pollute the environment and at the same time lose money in the process ?
Notable quotes:
"... Alberta's oil production has been cut 8.7 percent according to the mandate set by the province's government under Rachel Notley with the objective of cutting out around 325,000 barrels per day from the Canadian market. ..."
"... So far, the government-imposed productive caps have been extremely successful. In October Canadian oil prices were so depressed that the Canadian benchmark oil Western Canadian Select (WCS) was trading at a whopping $50 per barrel less than United States benchmark oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI). now, in the wake of production cuts, the price gap between WCS and WTI has diminished by a dramatic margin to a difference of just under $13 per barrel. ..."
"... The current production caps in Canada are only intended to last through the middle of this year, at which point Canadian oil companies will be permitted to decrease their cutbacks to just 95,000 barrels per day fewer than the numbers from November 2018's production rates. ..."
Jan 13, 2019 | finance.yahoo.com

In an attempt to combat a ballooning oil glut and dramatically plummeting prices, the premier of Alberta Rachel Notley introduced an unprecedented measure at the beginning of December when she is mandating that oil companies in her province cut production. This directive was particularly surprising in the context of Canada's free market economy, where oil production is rarely so directly regulated.

Canada's recent oil glut woes are not due to a lack of demand, but rather a severe lack of pipeline infrastructure. There is plenty of demand, and more than enough supply, but no way to get the oil flowing where it needs to go. Canada's pipelines are running at maximum capacity, storage facilities are filled to bursting, and the pipeline bottleneck has only continued to worsen . Now, in an effort to alleviate the struggling industry, Alberta's oil production has been cut 8.7 percent according to the mandate set by the province's government under Rachel Notley with the objective of cutting out around 325,000 barrels per day from the Canadian market.

Even before the government stepped in, some private oil companies had already self-imposed production caps in order to combat the ever-expanding glut and bottomed-out oil prices. Cenovus Energy, Canadian Natural Resource, Devon Energy, Athabasca Oil, and others announced curtailments that totaled around 140,000 barrels a day and Cenovus Energy, one of Canada's major producers, even went so far as to plead with the government to impose production caps late last year.

So far, the government-imposed productive caps have been extremely successful. In October Canadian oil prices were so depressed that the Canadian benchmark oil Western Canadian Select (WCS) was trading at a whopping $50 per barrel less than United States benchmark oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI). now, in the wake of production cuts, the price gap between WCS and WTI has diminished by a dramatic margin to a difference of just under $13 per barrel.

Related: The Natural Gas Crash Isn't Over

While on the surface this would seem to be a roundly glowing review of the production caps in Alberta, production cuts are not a long-term solution for Canada's oil glut woes. The current production caps in Canada are only intended to last through the middle of this year, at which point Canadian oil companies will be permitted to decrease their cutbacks to just 95,000 barrels per day fewer than the numbers from November 2018's production rates. The cuts are a just a treatment, not a cure, for oversupply in Alberta. The problem needs to be addressed at its source--the pipelines.

Unfortunately, the pipeline shortage in Alberta has no quick and easy fix. While there are multiple major pipeline projects underway, the two largest, the Keystone XL pipeline and the Trans Mountain pipeline, are stalled indefinitely thanks to legal woes and seemingly endless litigation. The Enbridge Line 3 pipeline, intended to replace one of the region's already existing pipelines, is currently under construction and projected to be up and running by the end of the year, but will not go a long way toward fixing the bottleneck.

Even if the Albertan government re-evaluates the present mid-2019 expiration date for the current stricter production cuts, extending the production caps could have enduring negative consequences in the region's oil industry. Keeping a long-term cap on production in Alberta would potentially discourage investment in future production as well as in the infrastructure the local industry so sorely needs. According to some reporting , the cuts will not be able to control the gap between Canadian and U.S. oil for much longer anyway, just another downside to drawing out what should be a short-term solution. The government will need to weigh the possible outcomes very carefully as the expiration date approaches, when the and the pipeline shortage is still a long way from being solved and the price of oil remains dangerously variable.

By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com

[Jan 11, 2019] The Winners and Losers of Big Oil s Offshore Spending Revival - Bloomberg

Offshore oil and specially deep water oil is the most expensive oil. So increase in offshore project means that producers expect $80 oil or higher.
Jan 11, 2019 | www.bloomberg.com

Offshore oilfield service purchases by type

https://www.bloomberg.com/toaster/v2/charts/f4ceb132341a480388bae94ca3293dfe.html?brand=markets&webTheme=markets&web=true&hideTitles=true

Source: Rystad Energy DCube

Notwithstanding recent oil-price volatility , spending on offshore oilfield services will rise by 6 percent in 2019 reaching $208 billion, before surging by another 14 percent in 2020, according to Norwegian consultancy Rystad Energy AS . That's after almost halving since 2014.

[Jan 07, 2019] Saudi Oil Production Cuts May Stoke Oil Prices, Spur Trump Tweets by Julian Lee

All graphics and images removed...
Notable quotes:
"... It makes sense for Saudi Arabia to focus its cuts on sales to the U.S., the only country that publishes detailed weekly data on oil imports and inventory levels -- traders watch the reports closely. This means the reductions will be evident more quickly than would similar cuts to other destinations, so a drop in American imports should have a much more immediate impact on price expectations. ..."
www.marketwatch.com

There's already less Saudi crude oil getting loaded for export.

The list of things that President Donald Trump criticizes in his tweets varies from one day to the next. He may soon have to direct his ire to oil prices and the actions of his ally, Saudi Arabia, once again.

The desert kingdom is already making good on its promise to slash supply, and the initial evidence suggests that the biggest cut is being made in deliveries to the U.S. On top of that, the price it charges American buyers of its crude has been raised to near record levels for cargoes to be shipped in February. That could be bad news for a president who just celebrated falling gas prices.

The OPEC+ group of countries met in December and, after Russia took the reins , eventually agreed to cut supplies by 1.2 million barrels a day from January. For Saudi Arabia, that meant cutting production to just over 10.3 million, but it pledged to go further -- oil minister Khalid Al-Falih told reporters and analysts that it would be slashed to 10.2 million barrels a day in January.

The first job was to unwind the output surge made in November that had helped to deliver the price drop hailed by Trump. That was done last month. Saudi production in December was back below the October baseline used for its (and most other countries') promised cuts.

Saudi Cuts

Saudi crude production was cut to 10.65 million barrels a day in December from a record 11.07 million in November

That couldn't have been what Trump wanted, given what he tweeted the day before OPEC began its meeting in Vienna -- at the time, crude prices were in the midst of their worst quarterly decline in four years.

Bloomberg's tracking of crude exports from Saudi Arabia indicates that the biggest drop in flows from the kingdom was in the volume heading for the U.S. Shipments to ports on the Atlantic, Gulf and West coasts fell by nearly 60 percent between November and December to just over 350,000 barrels a day. That's the lowest since Bloomberg started tracking these flows in January 2017.

Cutting Shipments

The flow of Saudi crude heading to the U.S. slumped last month, as the kingdom slashed output

The size of the drop isn't set in stone -- a small number of ships signaling that they are heading for the Suez Canal or Singapore could eventually go to the U.S. Even so, a decline in Saudi crude shipments to American ports should start to show up in lower deliveries after about six weeks. By mid-February, U.S. imports of the kingdom's oil could fall to the lowest in more than 30 years, according to data from the Department of Energy. The last time the flow from Saudi to the U.S. fell below half a million barrels a day was in the mid-1980s, after the kingdom slashed its production by 80 percent over four years in an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to prop up oil prices.

Slowing The Flow

Imports of Saudi crude into the U.S. could soon fall to their lowest in more than 30 years

It's not just this volume decline that is going to rile Trump. The price of that oil isn't going to make him happy either.

Saudi Arabia sets its crude prices a month in advance of it being loaded at its export terminals, so it has just published its price list for February. In common with other producers, it does not set an outright price, but rather a differential to regional benchmarks for each export grade and each market area.

Price differentials for U.S. buyers have been going up since August and for most grades are now close to record levels. Saudi heavy crude, which is the closest alternative to dwindling supplies from Venezuela and Mexico, is the most expensive it's been since 2009 in relative terms.

Price Rises

Saudi crude prices for U.S. buyers have risen to near record levels against the regional benchmark

It makes sense for Saudi Arabia to focus its cuts on sales to the U.S., the only country that publishes detailed weekly data on oil imports and inventory levels -- traders watch the reports closely. This means the reductions will be evident more quickly than would similar cuts to other destinations, so a drop in American imports should have a much more immediate impact on price expectations.

There is no reason to doubt that Al-Falih will do what he said in Vienna. It was only after slashing exports to the U.S. in July 2017 that oil prices really began to recover, and Saudi Arabia will be hoping for a similar impact this time, too. But don't be surprised if that also unleashes angry tweets from the U.S. president.

Julian Lee is an oil strategist for Bloomberg First Word. Previously he worked as a senior analyst at the Centre for Global Energy Studies.

[Jan 06, 2019] Those who manipulate the oil market down will only make it more volatile in the future

Notable quotes:
"... The EIA weekly reports are a joke with zero movements for crude inventory for last 2 weeks. And an adjustment factor that nobody understands. Maybe the government shutdown has some influence after all. ..."
Jan 06, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

kolbeinh x Ignored says: 01/04/2019 at 11:42 am

It is all a big illusion that oil is cheap like water in my opinion. To manipulate the market down will only make for more volatility in the future, and it is a good a bet as when the oil price fell to 30 dollars/b in 2016 that prices will eventually rise again from this level.

It has do with that the tanking of oil prices is out of the usual cycle in the industry (low investments makes for less oil after 3+ years).

I have started to bet on oil prices going up again even more for the fun of it (a few bets made too early I have to admit) and now I put some meaningful amount of money in it; to make it even more fun hopefully.

The EIA weekly reports are a joke with zero movements for crude inventory for last 2 weeks. And an adjustment factor that nobody understands. Maybe the government shutdown has some influence after all.

To build a wall against the tide water is an illustration of how successful it will be to keep the oil prices down with illusional data alone. And I stand by that a recession based on "fear" news alone is fake, but can of course in the end become a self fulfilling prophecy.

And [there is] the real fear is inflation based on too high oil prices. Extensive tariffs to hinder trade will also never help prosperity, but it remains to be seen if threats are made real or if the policy at some point will be revoked.

The story is to be continued

[Jan 04, 2019] Effect of "paper oil". You won't know anything until you find yourself sitting in a line waiting for gasoline. You won't see it coming. You won't predict it. It will just happen someday.

Jan 04, 2019 | peakoilbarrel.com

Watcher: 01/02/2019 at 3:32 pm

You guys insist on continuing to think money isn't created from thin air by the Fed and actually means something in the context of a substance that feeds you food. If you have to have it, and you do have to have it, things will be done for you to get it. Borrowed money that was created from thin air . . . who cares if you can't pay it back? You have to eat.

Consumption of oil is up. OPEC and Russia have reduced output. The price falls, because there is no meaning to anything created from thin air when applied to something that depends on physics.

You won't know anything until you find yourself sitting in a line waiting for gasoline. You won't see it coming. You won't predict it. It will just happen someday.

Soon.

GuyM: 01/02/2019 at 4:27 pm
Some truth to that Watcher. Simplistic thinking in investors. If we aren't making much money, the US won't be making much money, so the price of oil must go lower. Not just simplistic, flat out stupid.

And the number of people who think oil supply is limited is fairly scarce in relation to the population as a whole. Probably less than the number of people who think chocolate milk comes from brown cows.

[Jan 04, 2019] $70 Oil Could Be Right Around The Corner

Jan 04, 2019 | oilprice.com

On Friday, Bloomberg said that many of the world's largest banks are forecasting a rebound in oil prices next year as fears of a recession prove misplaced.

According to a Bloomberg survey of oil analysts, Brent will average $70 a barrel in 2019, almost a third higher than its price on Thursday. Michael Cohen, head of energy and commodities research at Barclays Plc in New York, said "we could even see something similar to a V-shaped recovery next year, on two very important conditions. One, that the reduction in OPEC exports leads to a reduction in inventories. And two, that we don't see a further deterioration in macroeconomic conditions."

The Bloomberg report added that despite a recent darkening outlook for the global economy amid prolonged trade disputes between the U.S. and China, and as the U.S. Federal Reserve embarks on tightening monetary policy, most commentators aren't seeing an actual recession biting the oil market next year. The median forecast of 24 oil analysts in the Bloomberg survey projects that Brent crude futures will average exactly $70 a barrel in 2019. The price on Thursday was about $53.50 while the average so far in 2018 has been about $72. Meanwhile, the median forecast for WTI is $61.13. WTI futures traded at about $45.27 on Monday.

[Jan 04, 2019] Shale still vulnerable if OPEC gets nasty

Jan 04, 2019 | finance.yahoo.com

America is now the largest producer of oil in the world. For the U.S., this is great news as the dream of energy independence grows and maybe one day we can tell OPEC to go take a hike.

However, while the shale oil revolution has helped change the energy landscape forever, we cannot take shale for granted. We can't just assume that the industry can withstand any price and that production can keep rising despite the market conditions. We can't assume that shale oil producers can match OPEC production cuts barrel for barrel.

We also can't assume OPEC, weakened by falling prices of late, won't strike back like they did in 2014. That's when OPEC declared a production war on U.S. shale producers. The then de facto head of the OPEC Cartel Ali al-Naimi spoke about market share rivalry with the United States and said that they wanted a battle with the U.S. There were no winners in that production war. Ali al-Naimi was sacked as he almost bankrupted Saudi Arabia. It took its toll on U.S. producers as well, as many were forced into bankruptcy despite making significant progress on efficiency and cost cutting.

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With 2019 underway, OPEC, along with Russia, agreed to remove 1.2 million barrels per day off the market for the first six months of the year. Early reports on OPEC compliance to the agreed upon production cuts is overwhelming at a time when there are new questions about how shale oil producers are faring after this recent oil price drop.

Private forecasters are showing that there are major cuts in Saudi exports and even signs that OPEC production is falling sharply. Bloomberg News confirmed that by reporting "observed crude exports from Saudi Arabia fell to 7.253 million barrels per day in December on lower flows to the U.S. and China." Furthermore, other private trackers believe that the drop may be the biggest in exports since Bloomberg began tracking shipments in early 2017. Oil saw another boost after Bloomberg reported that OPEC oil production had the biggest monthly drop in two years falling by 530,000 barrels a day to 32.6 million a day last month. It's the sharpest pullback since January 2017.

Rewind to 2017, there was talk that shale oil producers would make up the difference and the cut would not matter, but that was proven wrong. This time expect the same because it is likely that shale oil producers may have to cut back as the sharp price drop has put them in a bad position. The Wall Street Journal pointed out that, even now, some shale oil wells are not producing as much oil as expected. This coupled with a large declining production rate in shale swells means that they need capital to keep drilling to keep those record production numbers moving higher. "Two-thirds of projections made by the fracking companies between 2014 and 2017 in America's four hottest drilling regions appear to have been overly optimistic, according to the analysis of some 16,000 wells operated by 29 of the biggest producers in oil basins in Texas and North Dakota. Collectively, the companies that made projections are on track to pump nearly 10% less oil and gas than they forecast for those areas, according to the analysis of data from Rystad Energy AS, an energy consulting firm. That is the equivalent of almost one billion barrels of oil and gas over 30 years, worth more than $30 billion at current prices. Some companies are off track by more than 50% in certain regions" the Journal reported.

"While U.S. output rose to an all-time high of 11.5 million barrels a day, shaking up the geopolitical balance by putting U.S. production on par with Saudi Arabia and Russia. The Journal's findings suggest current production levels may be hard to sustain without greater spending, because operators will have to drill more wells to meet growth targets. Yet shale drillers, most of whom have yet to consistently make money, are under pressure to cut spending in the face of a 40% crude-oil price decline since October."

Of course, none of this matters if we see a prolonged slowdown in the global economy, Demand may indeed turn out to be the great equalizer. Yet if growth comes back, say if we get a China trade deal or if they ever reopen the U.S. government, we will most likely see a very tight market in the new year. The OPEC cuts will lead to a big drawdown in supply and shale oil producers will find it hard to match OPEC and demand growth barrel for barrel.

[Jan 03, 2019] Oil drops on concerns of economic downturn, but OPEC cuts support by Henning Gloystein

Jan 03, 2019 | finance.yahoo.com

OPEC oil supply fell by 460,000 barrels per day (bpd) between November and December, to 32.68 million bpd, a Reuters survey found on Thursday, as top exporter Saudi Arabia made an early start to a supply-limiting accord, while Iran and Libya posted involuntary declines.

OPEC, Russia and other non-members - an alliance known as OPEC+ - agreed last December to reduce supply by 1.2 million bpd in 2019 versus October 2018 levels. OPEC's share of that cut is 800,000 bpd.

"If OPEC is faithful to its agreed output cut together with non-OPEC partners, it would take 3-4 months to mop up the excess inventories," energy consultancy FGE said.

[Jan 02, 2019] The demonization of Russia, China, Iran and Venezuela might be connected with oil depletion

Notable quotes:
"... Ever since US Crude Oil peaked its production in 1970, the US has known that at some point the oil majors would have their profitability damaged, "assets" downgraded, and borrowing capacity destroyed. At this point their shares would become worthless and they would become bankrupt. The contagion from this would spread to transport businesses, plastics manufacture, herbicides and pesticide production and a total collapse of Industrial Civilisation. ..."
Jan 02, 2019 | www.moonofalabama.org

Palloy , Feb 20, 2018 8:52:02 PM | link

@4 "For the life of me I cannot figure why Americans want a war/conflict with Russia."

Ever since US Crude Oil peaked its production in 1970, the US has known that at some point the oil majors would have their profitability damaged, "assets" downgraded, and borrowing capacity destroyed. At this point their shares would become worthless and they would become bankrupt. The contagion from this would spread to transport businesses, plastics manufacture, herbicides and pesticide production and a total collapse of Industrial Civilisation.

In anticipation of increasing Crude Oil imports, Nixon stopped the convertibility of Dollars into Gold, thus making the Dollar entirely fiat, allowing them to print as much of the currency as they needed.

They also began a system of obscuring oil production data, involving the DoE's EIA and the OECD's IEA, by inventing an ever-increasing category of Undiscovered Oilfields in their predictions, and combining Crude Oil and Condensate (from gas fields) into one category (C+C) as if they were the same thing. As well the support of the ethanol-from-corn industry began, even though it was uneconomic. The Global Warming problem had to be debunked, despite its sound scientific basis. Energy-intensive manufacturing work was off-shored to cheap labour+energy countries, and Just-in-Time delivery systems were honed.

In 2004 the price of Crude Oil rose from $28 /barrel up to $143 /b in mid-2008. This demonstrated that there is a limit to how much business can pay for oil (around $100 /b). Fracking became marginally economic at these prices, but the frackers never made a profit as over-production meant prices fell to about $60 /b. The Government encourages this destructive industry despite the fact it doesn't make any money, because the alternative is the end of Industrial Civilisation.

Eventually though, there must come a time when there is not enough oil to power all the cars and trucks, bulldozers, farm tractors, airplanes and ships, as well as manufacture all the wind turbines and solar panels and electric vehicles, as well as the upgraded transmission grid. At that point, the game will be up, and it will be time for WW3. So we need to line up some really big enemies, and develop lots of reasons to hate them.

Thus you see the demonisation of Russia, China, Iran and Venezuela for reasons that don't make sense from a normal perspective.

Ger , Feb 21, 2018 7:52:44 AM | link
Dan @ 4

It is partially tied direct to the economy of the warmongers as trillions of dollars of new cold war slop is laying on the ground awaiting the MICC hogs. American hegemony is primarily about stealing the natural resources of helpless countries. Now in control of all the weak ones, it is time to move to the really big prize: The massive resources of Russia. They (US and their European Lackeys) thought this was a slam dunk when Yeltsin, in his drunken stupors, was literally giving Russia to invading capitalist. Enter Putin, stopped the looting .........connect the dots.

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[Nov 03, 2019] How Controlling Syria s Oil Serves Washington s Strategic Objectives by Nauman Sadiq

[Jul 17, 2019] Oil Is Driving the Iran Crisis by Michael T. Klare

[Jul 06, 2019] Why is Iran such a high priority for US elite? Because Iran successfully booted out the CIA and CIA-imposed regime out of their country and successfully remained independent since then

[Apr 16, 2019] The incompetent, the corrupt, the treacherous -- not just walking free, but with reputations intact, fat bank balances, and flourishing careers. Now they re angling for war with Iran.

[Mar 30, 2019] The US desperately needs Venezuelan oil

[Feb 15, 2019] Consumption of liquid fuels grows over the next decade, before broadly plateauing in the 2030s

[Feb 15, 2019] You can see how the definitions are going to blur and they're going to allow declaring oil production numbers to be anything that they want them to be.

[Jan 13, 2019] Catherine Austin Fitts – Federal Government Running Secret Open Bailout

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