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Softpanorama
(slightly skeptical)
Open Source Software Educational Society |
May the
source be with you,
but remember the KISS principle ;-)
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Financial Skeptic Humor
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Back in the Goode Olde Days, people spent uncounted hours trying to
forecast the future. If they had a cat, they could try felidomancy, which
is the art of using cats to predict the future. If they had feet, they could
try pedomancy.
Nowadays, people indulge in fedomancy, which is the art of predicting
interest rates by observing the Federal Reserve Board. It's a difficult
practice.
John Wagooner,
USA
Today
God, grant me the capital to accept the things I cannot
change; the reserves to change the things I can; and the Fed Auction when
all that blows up. Amen.
Calculated
Risk
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Skeptic dictionary
-
AAA: Derogatory term implying some rating machinations
or other well hidden scam in bond or synthetic securities ratings. "Playing
AAA game" means a Ponzi scheme based on false rating of mortgage securities
aided and abetted by credit agencies. Sometimes used sarcastically like in "Have
a AAA day" or "If you want to be in AAA, you better buy an Autoclub membership".
-
Asymmetric monetary policy:
a politically correct name for crony capitalism. The key idea is privatizing
profits and socializing losses. Greenspan was the
most famous proponent of crony capitalism and really enjoyed in his role Robin
Hood for banks, hedge funds and derivatives traders. He was widely admired both
on Wall Street and Congress (which at the time was just an extension of the
Street). Let's call a spade for what it is: privatizing profits
and socializing losses is crony capitalism,
pure and simple.
-
Auction-rate securities: Things which happens when you
want cheap money, substitute borrowing short term for borrowing long term, get
in trouble, dial 1-800-get-me-out and no one answers
-
Auditing: The variant
of the game "Where's Waldo". Buried
in every accounting statement there is something the accountant's
refer to a "Plug" - a number they fudge to get the totals to add-up. The auditor's
job is to find it.
-
Analysts: You don't
need them in a Bull market, you don't want them in a Bear market . . .Old
Wall Street joke
- Analysts rating: "Cornucopian puffery from navel-gazing, coddled
analysts who swallow government-manufactured economic statistical propaganda
wholesale because they are either stupid or afraid."
-
Arm-Waving: When people take fluffy, subjective information
and treat it as fact, to justify a viewpoint . . . that they want to justify.
- Balance sheet: Exercise in creative accounting. Creative implementation
of accounting rules to transform "loss" to "gain"
- Bailout: Reminds me of something Desmond Tutu once said: “When the
missionaries came to Africa they had the Bible and we had the land. They said,
'Let us pray.' We closed our eyes. When we opened them we had the Bible and
they had the land.”
- Bubble cycle: The new name of business
cycle. See
The Business Cycle was replaced with the Bubble Cycle.
- Bubbleonians: Individuals who believe we are in a perpetual bull
market. Alternatively called "401K donors"
- Bubblevision: CNBC, Mecca for bubbleonians near and far.
- Budget: The most intentionally misleading compilations
ever attempted. Mathematically, the budget is comic. Politically, it is
conniving. Morally, it is probably closer to a venal sin, rather than a cardinal
one. Legally, it is a fraud.
- Bushville: Temp. housing
for whose who lost their home to subprime real estate foreclosures.
Compare with Hoovervilles -- shanty-town 1930s communities of homeless citizens
nestled out of sight near the railroad tracks.
- Casino: Another name for the stock market, at least while the dipsters
and bubbleonians are still in force. "Wallstripers" are people in charge of
the stocks casino.
- Casino Capitalism: Variant of version of feudalism the USA morphed
during the last two decades. This brand of feudalism relies of levies from 401K
lemmings (called donors in Wall Street jargon). The most revered institution
after Wall Street in this flavor of feudalism is the military.
- CDO, CLO: Unidentified financial objects (UFO)
- Central bankerese -- a special dialect of English designed
to hide all important or relevant to the discussion facts. One of the best known
practitioners was Alan Greenspan. The term implies
never-ending deceit like in quote "How do you know when the chairman of the
Fed is lying? Answer: Every time he moves his lips" (Barron, 1979)
- Commerce:
" A kind of transaction in which A plunders from B the goods of C, and
for compensation B picks the pocket of D of money belonging to E."
The Devil's Dictionary by Ambrose Bierce
- Comrade Ben: An accidental revolutionary
who is trying to bail out the inmates who were running the asylum under
Maestro Greenspan and now are trembling under their beds about the possible
consequences of their actions. Fed actually resembles Politburo as an agency
which in not under the direct control of the Executive branch or Congress, and
therefore is not really answerable to the voters. Ceding regulatory control
of financial sector to such an agency amounts to an outright assertion that
democracy just doesn't work.
- Cold turkey market: market after collapse
of the major bank in the process of deleveraging of the economy. The term gained
popularity after the collapse of Bear Stearns in March 2008.
Also refers to Greenspan preferred way of "treating drag addict with cocaine"
policy.
- Corporate accounting: a misnomer. Former Senator Alan Simpson famously
said: “Those who travel the high road in Washington need not fear heavy traffic.”
If he had sought truly deserted streets, however, the Senator should have looked
to Corporate America’s accounting. -- Warren Buffet
- Counterfeit economy: Economy which instead of producing
anything of value, propagates a Ponzi-style of importing Chinese
staff and exporting IOUs. The system hummed like clockwork until the debt chickens
started coming home to roost.
- Captains of industry: People extremely skillful in disguising what
is going on is the name of the game in America's late, degenerate capitalism.
You get your name in the paper by ginning up mergers and acquisitions. You build
up mountains of debt. And you crunch the numbers into such grotesque and unnatural
shapes that even their own mothers wouldn't recognize them. The company itself
suffers. Real investors, who actually understand what is going on, are appalled.
But the little guys who get their information from the newspapers and their
emotions from television love it. Growth! Expansion! Technology! We're all going
to get rich….
- Credit Default Swaps (CDS): financial weapons of mass destruction
(WDM)
- Currency madness: behavior of fiat currencies in periods of financial
crisis
- Cheerleaders: Sell-side analysts whose idea of research is to talk
to company management before issuing a "buy" rating (or to downgrade a stock
to "accumulate" after it implodes). Also used for servile press that tried to
brainwash the viewers/readers/listeners with messages like "Please leave Bernanke,
Paulson, and Wall Street Bankers alone! They went to Princeton, Harvard, and
Yale! These are America's best and brightest!! America is in the
best hands!! They know exactly what to do!"
- Disastrously-botched fiscal policy (DBFP): replay of Reagan
domestic macroeconomic mismanagement (aka "voodoo economics") during 90th and
200x under Easy Al.
- Dead Cat Bounce: Miracle that many expected to deliver in early 2008
to make possible for major foreign players to get rid of US equities.
- Dead fish: former CIOs of major banks who are not yet in jail
- Debt Star: An interstellar financial instrument of balance sheet
destruction. The Debt Star is able to destroy an entire planetary economy with
its Correlation Laser. Often used ironically like in "Darth Paulson is
nearing completion of the Debt Star..."
- ''Deficits, schmeficits'': An approach to fiscal deficits
reflected in the immortal quote "deficit does not matter". typical among banana
republics leadership. Inevitably lead to cold turkey syndrome
(see above)
- Derivatives: Weapons of Mass Financial Destruction. Wall
Street’s version of nitroglycerin. In the two decades of Greenspan's tenure,
the Fed's Washington staff, other regulators and the Congress allowed and enabled
Wall Street to migrate more and more of the investment world off exchange and
into the opaque world of over-the-counter derivative instruments and structured
assets. This change is described by people like Greenspan and Treasury Secretary
Hank Paulson as "innovation," but our old friend Martin Mayer rightly calls
it "retrograde." By replacing exchange traded securities with ersatz OTC instruments,
Greenspan and the economists who dominate the Fed's Washington staff have created
vast systemic risk that need not exist at all and that now threatens our entire
financial system. They cause a failure at so many levels that it’s hard to find
a piece of the financial system that is actually unaffected. As a result
we are now dealing with failed institutions, shortsighted analysis, and
some unscrupulous, greedy bastards who would (and do) loot any system that allows
for looting. Commenting on Bear Stern rescue by Fed Meredith Whitney noted that
the rescue was absolutely all about counterparty risk. If Bear went under, everyone’s
solvency was going to be thrown into question. There could have been a systematic
run on counterparties in general,” she said “It was 100 percent related to credit
default swaps.”
- Dipsters: Individuals who mindlessly buy on
dips. See also "Bubbleonians."
- Dollar: fiat currency which
requires mint freshener. Often called "US peso." A Federal Reserve economist
once recounting a conversation with his young daughter, who asked him, "What
do you do at work, Daddy?" He answered, "I help make important decisions." "What
kind of decisions, Daddy?" "Oh, things like how much money the government needs
to print."
- Fed: The most dangerous branch of Federal government able to destroy
the economy of the country. In difficult times serves as Wall
Street’s pawnbroker of last resort. Of more precisely bartender of last resort
serving booze to already drunk patrons. Fed is much like the Wizard of Oz: the
perception of its power vastly exceeds reality. In normal times, the limited
tools central bankers have at their disposal can be used to great effect, but
extreme conditions reveal their impotence.
- Fed headquarters: place which requires wet vacuum cleaning from corruption
and incompetence accumulated during Greenspan era.
- Fed Chairman:
The most powerful unelected official in the
USA. Often called Grey Cardinal. Lobbyists in
this position are worse then con men and criminals. It's difficult to accept,
but it's true - and we'd best do something about not repeating the disaster
of appointing a person like Greenspan and letting him stay for 20 years protecting
his position like Edgar
Hoover. It is because of Hoover's long and controversial reign that
FBI directors are now limited to 10-year terms. That same should be done for
Fed. In addressing our present Subcrime Bubble, we should opposed to
concentrating yet more authority if trembling hands of yet another Benevolent
Chairman.
- Feb Mandate: "Hear No Evil, Speak No Evil, See No Evil". Especially
true about financial derivatives.
- Finacons:
allusion to neocons.
- Finance: "The art or science of managing revenues
and resources for the best advantage of the manager. The pronunciation of this
word with the i long and the accent on the first syllable is one of America's
most precious discoveries and possessions." The Devil's Dictionary by
Ambrose Bierce
- Financial Kool-Aid: See securitization. "It's sort of a little
poetic justice, in that the people that brewed this toxic Kool-Aid found themselves
drinking a lot of it in the end, " -- Warren Buffet
- Financial models: bad habit that are more dangerous for financial
health of banks and other financial institutions then smoking is to your lungs.
Should come with appropriate health risks warning.
- Financial meltdown: A situation in which a rumor that both Bear Stearns
and Lehman Brothers are insolvent looks like an understatement and people suspect
that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are on the list.
- Flopping and chopping: Up-and-down motion that essentially goes nowhere.
- Easy Al: Fed chairman Alan Greenspan, the father of subprime mess
and securitization crisis. Greenspan two forthcoming books are: "What, Me Worry?"
and "Maintaining the Faith in Free Market with Derivatives". Jesus may
have turned water into wine, but Greenspan has turned the US dollar into toilet
paper.
-
Economic history: " a never-ending series of episodes
based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money.
The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend,
and step off before it is discredited." George Soros
- Exorbitant privilege: Back in the 1960s Charles de Gaulle would complain
about the "exorbitant privilege" that accrued to the United States by virtue
of its role as the key currency in the post-World War II Bretton Woods international
monetary system. Other countries had to worry about their balances of payments:
they had to constrain demand or go through the distress of a devaluation in
order to balance their trade. But the United States did not: it could simply
print extra dollars to cover whatever excess of desired imports over desired
exports happened to exist.
- Improve education so we can better compete globally: Get used to
a lower standard of living
- Incestuous amplification: Standard condition in large financial institution.
Usually defined as a condition where one only listens to those who are already
in lock-step agreement, reinforcing set beliefs and creating a situation ripe
for miscalculation.
- Investment bankers: a greedy group of
crooked, corrupt, inbreeding halfwits, as that is the nature of banks and
bankers (aka "emphasize revenue at the expense of risk" ). Here in America,
they are supposed to be kept in check by the Glass Steagall Act, which
prevents banks from speculating in the markets and playing risky games with
depositors' money, which was enacted after the Crash of '29. It was a
good law that worked perfectly fine, until a creep named Bill Clinton
perversely repealed it during his embarrassing presidency, and look what
happened; his wife wants to be president! Hahaha! (The
Mogambo Guru)
- Invisible hand: Adam Smith’s invisible hand has a puppeteer -- the
Federal Reserve..
-
Harvard Business School MBAs: People with surgically
removed ethical compass which is replaces by a very strong instinct for social
climbing. Harvard peer pressure is all about rich spoiled brats enjoying the
closed society of a system based on nepotism which is a natural extension of
their social environment. Harvard is just a daycare center where kids can play
and then party. Often they are taught by prominent looters like Andrei Shleifer.
Alumni include Jeff Skilling, Paul Bilzerian, Henry Paulson, Stan O'Neal, and
of course, George W. Bush. HBS is turning out roughly 900 MBAs a year. A lot
of people who graduate from HBS aren't the brightest bulbs and are hardly different
from being "stuck in adolescence", where seeking acceptance is a prime motivation.
Seeing the H on a resume is a clear "no hire" indicator for any innovative company,
but this is offset by their vast alum network which perpetuates the gross mediocrity.
The problem is contagion: once one gets in, the network follows. Some graduates
are fundamentally stupid, unlearned, and incapable of extracting any real content
even from into level books. Most are unambiguously afflicted with excessive
hubris, compulsive salesmanship, mediocre intellect, and unimpressive analytical
skills -- in other words, quite well positioned to assume leadership roles in
an average company.
-
HIWTYL (“Heads I win, tails you lose”): A popular game
that is played by investment banks and brokerages with 401K investors. 401K
investors are usually ecstatic when new management of overleveraged banks both
cuts the their dividend and dilutes their equity after paying billions in severance
pay and bonuses to the outgoing management.
-
Hellasious: Based on derivatives (from "Hell as IOU's")
-
High living standards: For decades the western world
considered Texans to be the great unwashed, uneducated, uncultured
peasant rogues. And we may soon regain the living standards that accompany that
description. Detroit's high schools already have a 31% graduation
rate.
-
The Emperors Without Clothes Club: S&P, Moody
and Fitch. With the monoline insurer fiasco, the rating agencies give critics
more evidence that their grades are a sham, dictated by political considerations
instead of economic reality.
- Great Moderation: Since post-1973 real global GDP has remained weak
vs. the 4.9 percent average for 1950-73, the more correct term might be 'The
Great Stagnation', though that has certainly not been the case for the become
stretched-too-far financial sphere. The Great Moderation could also be described
as the Debt Abberation.
- Great Pretender: Ben Bernanke. Refers to Ben pretending that inflation
is not a problem. Many object singling out Bernanke and claim that the
a whole culture of Pretenders in Fed under Greenspan including Easy Al
was supporting the pretense. Sill unless Bernanke somehow manages to pull the
rabbit out of his hat prior to January 2009, many think his career as head of
the Fed might be one of the shortest on record. Right now the Fed is ready to
monetize cow dung, if that will help the banks. And since the Fed is owned by
the banks, why is this position of theirs always seen as a surprise?
- Greenbashism: A new and popular form of Monday morning quarterbacking.
Publishing a book critical of former fed chairman Greenspan after
he left the office while being silent before; also bashing "Greenspan's cult-like
belief is self regulating market" or calling him "a dangerous fundamentalist"
in mainstream press after everybody realized the derivatives and subprime
horses left the stable.
- Greenspan: Prominent supporter of "crony capitalism" (see asymmetric
monetary policy),
a former Wall Street lobbyist and republican
party political operative who managed to became Fed chairman and helped
to introduce socialization of losses for the most reckless financial players
(sometimes called "Greenspan put") while simultaneous neutering regulation in
the name of free markets. Encouraged Wall Street to play with financial
nitroglycerin in the form of derivatives (see financial weapon of mass destruction).
Followed the financial industry’s lead in promoting reckless deregulation, even
as dangerous trends and little-understood products like derivatives proliferated.
See also Financial Rasputin. Got the nickname Maestro for the fact that he managed
to last almost 20 year and was not fired or jailed for his transgressions. Benefitted
from extremely good timing. first collapse of the Soviet Union saved him from
being fired for incompetence. Also while during the last four years of
Greenspan tenure the economy was like a slow-motion train wreck, he managed
to jump the train near collision and even published a subprime book. Managed
to save profits from his subprime book from repossession.
- Greenspanism: A promotion of crony capitalism (financial socialism
or socialism for investment banks and hedge funds) based on privatization of
profits and socialization of losses via government sponsored bailouts.
In a narrow sense dereliction of Fed duty in regulating banking system along
with compulsive micro-managing of interest rates by Feb, a bad habit similar
to masturbation. Important part of Greenspanism is that are artful camouflage
of intentions and actions as well as real consequences of the current policy
by long explanations to various Congress committees designed to conceal absence
of substance and complete lack of understanding of the current situation
by Fed (Ezra Pound said “The less we know, the longer our explanations.” ).
Important part of Greenspanism is the creation of cult of personality by arbitrary
and frequent change of interest rates (interest rates masturbation). If the
Fed proposed tomorrow to fix the price of orange juice, everyone would think
they were mad. Ironically, the vast majority sees nothing wrong with price fixing
interest rates, even though it is clearly proven that Greenspan Fed has no idea
what it is doing. Consecutive bubble blowing is a proof. Also Greenspan Fed
missed the risks in the shadow banking system -- it really thought that
risk had been diversified globally, and didn't realize that a lot of US housing
risk was held in off-balance sheet vehicles backstopped by US institutions in
London. Is a wider sense socialism for banks on the downside along with
gangster capitalism on the upside; see asymmetric monetary policy.
- Greenspeak: the worst type of lie, despicable
even in lie-infested worlds of politics and banking. Named after Fed Chairman
testimony supporting Bush tax cuts. In a narrow sense blatant betrayal of your
previous position and proclaimed principles for four more years in the office.
- Greenspan prize: Like Greenspan got "Enron Prize
for Distinguished Public Service" it might be time to establish "Greenspan Prize
for Distinguished Fed Service" or, better, "Greenspan prize for the banana
republic approach to banking supervision"
- Guantanamo monetary policy: force-feeding $3 billion of daily
debt to the rest of the world.
- Kinky stocks: Companies with stratospheric valuations.
- Last of the Mohicans: Uncorrupted analysts who do their homework.
The species is rare, borders on extinction. One example is Meredith Whitney,
the analyst who prompted a $369 billion plunge in the value of US shares in
November 2, 2007 by issuing a negative note on Citigroup. She courageously braved
Wall Street’s culture of intimidation after receiving several death threats
from investors in the bank.
- Lemmings: Element of self-destruction built -in investment
banks modus operandi. Usually the whole crowd goes off the cliff...
-
Level 3 assets: "mark to a hope & a prayer" .
- Liquidity: Convenient scapegoat which usually is invoked in case
of any substantial of financial problems and masks absence of IQ. Usually used
in the form of a "lack of liquidity": an epidemic dysfunction of modern society.
As money games are considered to be similar but more exciting then sex it
needs to be differentiated with a very similar but milder ailment called
erectile dysfunction which usually affect men of the same age bracket as typical
CEOs of large banks.
Examples of usage: Failed deal? Blame lack of liquidity. Failed banks?
Blame lack of liquidity. Ailing high street sales? Blame lack of liquidity.
Lost your house? Blame lack of liquidity. Hellish traffic jams on your journey
out of the capital for your Easter break? Blame lack of liquidity.
- Margin: Who is this guy Margin that keeps calling me?
- MBS: Toxic financial waist. Also type of derivatives
that US Patriotic Fund for Saving Big Banks from Subprime Mess, named after
Chairman Bernanke in interested in buying.
- Money management business: the industry which adds no value and by
any standards ought not exist
- Monoline insurance: Viagra for securitization
- New economy: "Americans make a living selling each
other houses, paid for with money borrowed from the Chinese." -- Paul Krugman
- Neither responsible nor prudent: Fed-speak for “criminal and
crazy”.
- OPM: Other People's Money. In a narrow sense used as synonym for
401K investment accounts that are used as a hostage to reckless speculation
by Wall Street giants.
- Open mouse operations: Monetary policy propaganda. In narrow
sense -- Treasury claim that it support strong dollar while in reality
it supports its decline. Often used in broader sense as any statements
by Fed or Treasury officials that they know are materially wrong and but they
still lie for the sake of the country.
- Pressure on bank balance sheets: bank is insolvent
- Regulation: As Robert Peel would put it, in financial matters the
question is never laissez-faire vs. regulation, but always good smart regulation
vs. bad stupid regulation.
- Rest of World (ROW): People who need to supply their resources for
the fleshly printed US dollars.
- Since World War II: used by economists when they are afraid
to refer to Great Depression.
- Shrimp fest: A gathering of government leaders, i.e., IMF meetings,
G8 meetings, etc.
- Securitization: a vicious circle in which banks and other market
players who took on too much risk are all trying to get out of unsafe investments
at the same time, causing “significant collateral damage to market functioning.”
- Serial Bubble Blowing (SBB): Attempts to blow securitization
bubble after dot com bubble and commodity bubble after securitization bubble
by Greenspan and Bernanke. "...the financial community is using winning long
commodity and short dollar positions to offset losses on credit market instruments.
Leverage in one direction to allow deleveraging in another. The Fed can’t exactly
send those trades into a tailspin; there would be no place left to hide. Indeed,
the Fed needs to feed a bubble somewhere – the “where” in this case is just
terribly inconvenient as far as inflation [is] concerned..."
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2008/03/fed-watch-set-t.html
- Shadow banking system: A complex system of leveraged lending with
hedge funds as the major players. It is so hard to understand that Federal Reserve
Chairman Ben Bernanke required a face-to-face refresher course from hedge fund
managers in August, 2007. Is the shadow
banking system the derivatives are not just risk management tools. As Gross
and others see it, the real problem is that derivatives are now a new way of
creating money outside the normal central bank liquidity rules because they're
private contracts between two companies or institutions.
- Spitzer put: Was not he heroically supporting New York’s number
one industry? Is not service economy the only one left in the country ?
- SOX: the most successful attempt to strangulate the US economy with
over-regulation. Unleashed the greed of Big Five in the same way as securitization
unleashed the greed of investment bankers. The level of stupidity and
detachment from reality in enforcing SOX has analogs only in Mao cultural revolution
excesses.
- Stimulus package: "Who says the American government is dysfunctional?
You certainly wouldn’t believe it from witnessing the alacrity that the US Congress
moved with in order to give US$168 billion of the people’s money to the people,
otherwise known as the "stimulus package". " -- Julian Delasantellis
- Stockbroker : "What’s the difference between a stockbroker and a
pigeon? A pigeon can still leave a deposit on a Porsche."
- Subcrime: Behavior of Maestro and his Fed puppets. Can
we repossess the profits he made from his book?
- Tape painting: When the powers that be force prices absurdly higher
in a short period of time.
- Traders's Momentum Daily: Investor's Business Daily.
- The Sword of Damocles: an ancient name for side effects of financial
deregulation: possible collapse of systemically important player who engaged
in risky or crazy behavior due to the greed and lack of regulation. The problem
is that the losses imposed on the financial system by such collapse could be
enormous. There is some justice that Alan Greenspan, the most reckless Chairman
of the Federal Reserve in history, was still alive to observe collapse of Bear
Stearns. Translating the FED statement that disclosing the contents of a $30
billion portfolio somehow constitutes a 'danger to markets' from NEWSPEAK to
ENGLISH: "the risk to the taxpayer far exceeds $30 billion and constitutes a
danger to our current jobs and to future job prospects with Goldman, Lehman,
or even one with a second tier hedge fund"
- Walking away: Abandoning mortgage.
In case house prices declined substantially, for people with poor credit
ratings and few assets, apart from their house, walking away does seem to make
disturbingly good sense.
- Walk Away Cry Babies: a throng of irresponsible
lenders who are demanding "responsibility" from borrowers whose calls they would
not even take a year ago. Greedy lenders, their irresponsible
customers and incompetent Fed formed an unholy alliance to perpetuate a myth:
that consumers, companies and governments could keep spending more than they
earned and suffer no penalty.
- Wall Street: a place were the inmates run the asylum. "A symbol for
sin for every devil to rebuke. That Wall Street is a den of thieves is a belief
that serves every unsuccessful thief in place of a hope in Heaven."
The Devil's Dictionary by
Ambrose Bierce
- UBS: "Used to Be Smart". When you
subtract the losses in the buying power of the Swiss franc as inflation in
prices has surged around the world, and which is currently running at 2.6%
in Switzerland, I derive some Bad, Bad News (BBN) for UBS shareholders; you
will almost certainly never break even in terms of buying power by owning
UBS shares. You will always get back less buying power than you invested!
Hahahaha! Suckers! (The
Mogambo Guru)
- "Unprecedented times with respect to the financial strains":
The phase intended to mask the gravity of the situation with the exact meaning:
"Folks, we are pretty much f@cked. Time for another major bailout
-- once again dear friends." For example, "We are in nearly unprecedented times
with respect to the financial strains." Summers, March 7, 2008 at Stanford":
Only rogue economists failed to see the problems years ago when the Ponzi scheme
of mortgage financing was being fueled by the Fed and the regulators looking
the other way. Crooks were doing what crooks do when allowed and legally protected.
- Zombie banks: banks which pretend that they are solvent. As Keynes
pointed out, 'The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain liquid'.
Substitute "markets" with "banks". Other variant used is "Zombification
of Banks".
Notes:
- Those pages are written by people for whom English is not a
native language. Some amount of grammar and spelling errors
should be expected.
- This is a Spartan WHYFF (We Help You For Free) site. It
cannot replace the best teachers and
the
best books.
- The site contain some obsolete pages as it develops like a
living tree... Some links on older pages
are broken. Please
try to use Google, Open directory, etc. to find a replacement link
(see
HOWTO search the WEB for details).
We would appreciate if you can
mail us a correct link.
|
|

Thanks to the
Economist
[May 1, 2008] The latest nickname for UBS is "Used to Be
Smart"
March 04, 2008 | Cassandra
Does Tokyo(Fade in to telephone ringing.....)
Brrrring Brrrrring.
EARTH: Hello? Futures Exchanges?
This is Planet Earth calling.
FUTURES EXCHANGE(S): (in Nasal BQ Accent) Yea? Waddda
youze want?
EARTH: Ummmm if you look out the window, we seem to be
encoutnering a bit of turbulence. Or is Turbolence. Oh
well, never mind spelling or semantics, things are
turbo-ing and we here on Planet Earth are becoming
concerned that someone will get hurt. Errrr, yes, hurt
rather badly.
FUTURES EXCHANGE(S): Whoozit you sez you were again?
EARTH: Errr Planet Earth. Terra Firma. Gaia. The Big
Blue Marble.
FUTURES EXCHANGE(S): Did Vinny put yooze up to this?
EARTH: Ahem No. We're calling in respect of The Public
Interest.
FUTURES EXCHANGE(S): Waddaya want again.
EARTH: Well we were thinking you should be thinking
about raising margin requirements for speculators.
Significantly. And increasing the penalties for mis-categorization
as a Hedger to "Death".
FUTURES EXCHANGE(S): Vinny DID put ya up ta this!! Yooze
are trying to mussel in my rackit arentcha??
EARTH: No. Now please I implore you. Things are really
getting out of hand. Traders are embarking upon
positions on the basis of the thin-ness of trade and the
fact that you're the ONLY leverage in town. This is a
recipe for disaster....
FUTURES EXCHANGE(S): Are you CRAZY? I'ze live for days
like these. THIS is what its all about. But you looks
like a nice boy, prolly got some wop blood in ya so I
tell ya what: "I'll do you a favor and swop the
caffinated jo' for decaf. THAT should cool things off a
bit.
EARTH: Ummmm errrr. yes thanks. Now about those margin
requirements....
Trust in Central Banks Passes Point of No Return: Mark Gilbert
Commentary by Mark Gilbert
April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Here's the plan. Hokey-Cokey Bank bundles together its
tainted 2007 mortgages and bakes an asset- backed bond. It hands that bond to the
Bank of England in return for a bag of freshly minted U.K. government gilts. It
then uses those shiny new gilts as collateral to borrow much-needed money.
What would you, as the treasurer of Hokey-Cokey Bank, do with that cash? Would
you:
(A) lend it to eager first-time buyers Bob and Sue to purchase that apartment
they want, even though every bone in your body tells you
property prices are headed down, down, down?
(B) hand it to Tom, who also wants the apartment, except that he plans to rent
it to Bob and Sue for less than he'll have to pay every month on the
mortgage?
(C) scurry to the Hokey-Cokey vault as fast as your little legs will carry you,
toss in the cash, lock the door, and tell your chief executive the liquidity problem
is resolved and he won't have to beg the shareholders for fresh capital after all.
Hello? Am I missing something here?
Calculated Risk
Our Brian forwarded this email to me yesterday, and I haven't stopped chuckling
yet. It's very well done and certainly appears to be a legitimate "memorandum" from
Accredited. Apparently no one has yet managed to get it posted on Accredited's
website, which would formalize the joke nicely, but that's no reason not to
share it:
April 18, 2008 - San Diego , CA
Accredited Home Lenders is pleased to announce the promotion of Miss Helen Busta
to the newly created position of Chief Advisor of Things Both Relevant and Interesting
in the Non-Conforming Loan Market.
The position was created to help set the record straight in a market that's
been turned upside down. Miss Busta will apply her vast knowledge and years
of industry experience to bust the subprime myths that are so prevalent today.
As a young woman, Miss Busta arrived in San Diego from the Midwest and took
a job in the mortgage industry as a temp. She was soon hired by Accredited to
help out in the company's first office above an auto repair shop. Miss Busta
earned her B.A. in History from San Diego State University while working full-time
at Accredited.
Her duties will include advising Accredited staff and helping brokers build
their non-conforming business. Miss Busta will soon launch her own Web site,
where she will answer any and all questions regarding the mortgage industry.
Her long-standing service to Accredited and wealth of knowledge from 20 years
in home lending have made Miss Busta a solid performer in any type of economic
climate.
Please extend your congratulations to Miss Helen Busta on her significant achievement.
SDO insurance was just a fig leaf that masked bad odor. A nice confidence
building game for lemmings matching toward the cliff ;-)
Financial Armageddon
My thought for the day: The credit crisis is like an onion: every time you
peel back another layer, you want to cry.
... ... ..
Why would banks buy insurance on AAA securities, especially from ACA, which
had only an A rating? That would be akin to homeowners at the top of the hill
purchasing flood insurance from a company at the side of a river. If a flood
did happen, the insurer wouldn't be around to pay any claims
Old man reputation as a forecaster makes him good only for Comedy Central now.
And the fact that Ei Pais bothered to ask for his views is an exquisite humor in
itself. Endorcemnt of Mcain should be judged similarly.
There is more than a 50 percent chance the United States could go into recession,
former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan told El Pais newspaper
in an interview published on Sunday.
... ... ...
Greenspan, the U.S. Fed chairman from 1987 to 2006, endorsed the Republican
presidential candidate
John McCain in the interview."I'm Republican and I support John McCain,
who I know very well and who I respect a lot," he said.
When the monkey steals the keys to all the cages in the zoo, you're going
to have a problem. In our great nation, there are a limited number of potential
institutions which could exercise authority over those
"monkeys" which have destabilized the financial system, and from the perspective
of competence, independence and the possession of a clear understanding of the
inter-market linkages, the list is as ugly as it is short.
!. Congress
2. The President
3. The Courts
4. The Treasury
5. The Fed
6. An agency yet to be named
The big problem is that the "monkeys" will ALWAYS be smarter than 1-4, and ALMOST
ALWAYS smarter than 5-6. They will also always be wealthier, and hence more
influential, than 1-6, and will find ways to neuter rules they consider onerous,
with a packed Supreme court on their side, should congress or the president
fail to support them. In the end, there is only one regulator who can clean
up the AUGEAN STABLE. His name is Mr. Market.
"Poor guy. Is he really the last person they told?"
"Everybody and your mother knows it's a recession, except
for President Bush and Bernanke," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director
of ECRI. "They know in private, but it's their role to be cheerleaders for the
economy."
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. I am not an expert or a scholar or an
activist. I am more of an eye-witness. I watched the Soviet Union collapse,
and I have tried to put my observations into a concise message. I will leave
it up to you to decide just how urgent a message it is.
My talk tonight is about the lack of collapse-preparedness here in the United
States. I will compare it with the situation in the Soviet Union, prior to its
collapse. The rhetorical device I am going to use is the "Collapse Gap" – to
go along with the Nuclear Gap, and the Space Gap, and various other superpower
gaps that were fashionable during the Cold War.
With professors like Andrei Shleifer the prominent academic who has side
business of "
looting
of post-Soviet Russia" what should you expect ?
After the accounting scandals of 2002, where Skilling and other Harvard MBAs
played high-profile roles, the school studied what it could do to improve the
conduct of its graduates. It concluded that students' ethical compasses were
set before they got there, which one could view either as accurate or a way
of punting.
With apologies to Don McLean.
The Day the Subprime Died
A long, long time ago...
I can still remember
How that yield spread made me smile.
And I knew if I had my chance
Those mohos I could finance
And I could pay my bills for a while.
But February made me shiver
With every good faith I’d deliver.
Bad news on my e-mail
I just lost one more sale.
I can’t remember if I cried
When I saw the Fremont slide
But something touched me deep inside
The day the Subprime died.
So bye-bye, B\C money supply.
Sent my package to four lenders
But they all asked me why.
And good old boys were on a crack induced high
Singin’, "This’ll be the day the loans die,
This’ll be the day the loans die."
Did you write some B\C loans,
Did you blow bucks on the iPhone?,
Did that nut Cramer tell you so?
Do you believe in rate control,
Can FHA save your borrower’s soul,
Why is underwriting today so damn slow?
Well, I know you’ll have to cut those fees
And you’re wondering who has moved your cheese.
Bernarke’s on the news.
You can’t afford the MBA dues.
I was a semi-rich middle-aged broncin’ buck
With a master plan and a lot of pluck,
But I knew I was out of luck
The day the Subprime died.
So bye-bye, B\C money supply.
Sent my package to four lenders
But they all asked me why.
And good old boys were on a crack induced high
Singin’, "This’ll be the day the loans die.”
Copyright © 2007 Bad Grapes Inc. (ASCAP)
International Copyright Secured. All Rights Reserved.
by Cedonullandvoid August 12, 2007
Calculated Risk

Source:
Jan-Martin Feddersen, Immobilienblasen who writes:
I think it is a good start to kick off the "Fools Day" with news from the
the greatest fool UBS.
(hat tip Dwight) Here is the actually
UBS logo.
This one is by OldVet...
---

There I was holding my head and moaning and crying about how the banking system
and the financial system were on the verge of collapse. I saw the forced marriage,
or ménage-a-deux, between JP Morgan and Bear Stearns.
But the Fed was involved, which couldn’t be good. Oh God, please help us.
Then I realized it was really a ménage-a-trois, what with the head of JP Morgan
being on the
board of directors of the New York Fed. It was a family affair. The family
was taking care of its own. Brilliant. I’m now free of stress and ready to get
back to the trough! Get out your wallets, oinkers.
In Orwell's
Animal Farm all animals are equal
- except that some are more equal than others. All in the spirit of law, order
and the proper functioning of society, of course. Fittingly, the animals that
have chosen this role by themselves and for themselves, are the pigs.
Cut to US
financial markets today. After years of swinish behavior more reminiscent
of Animal House
than anything else, the pigs are threatening to destroy the entire farm. As
if it wasn't enough that they devoured all the "free market" food available
and inundated the world with their excreta, they now wish to be put on the public
trough. Truly, some businessmen believe they are more equal than others.
But do not blame the pigs; they are expected to act as swine nature dictates.
The fault lies entirely with the farmers, those authorities entrusted by the
people to oversee the farm because they supposedly knew better. While the pigs
were rampaging and tearing the place apart, they were assuring us all that farms
function best when animals are free to do as they please, guided solely by invisible
hooves. No regulation, no oversight, no common sense. Oh yes, and pigs fly..
Looks like Fed clowns are having their best days... I really like subtle
humor of Kroszner self-annihilation: "Substantial anecdotal evidence
indicates that failing to verify
(a borrower's) income invited fraud..." The only question that arises
is "Should he get a jail term or just a probation" for the dereliction of
duty.
The Mess That Greenspan
Made
According to this
report in the Associated Press, the Federal Reserve is now bolstering confidence
in the mortgage lending market by proposing sweeping new rules:
It also would prohibit lenders from engaging in a pattern or practice of
lending without considering
a borrower's ability to repay a home loan from sources other than the home's
value. The proposal would curtail misleading ads for many types of
mortgages and bolster financial disclosures to borrowers.
"Substantial anecdotal evidence indicates that
failing to verify (a
borrower's) income invited fraud," said (Fed Governor Randall) Kroszner,
who has been the Fed's point person on the consumer protection provisions.
Come on AP, is this really you or were you invaded by writers from
The Onion?

"What’s the difference between a stockbroker and a pigeon? A pigeon can still
leave a deposit on a Porsche."
Subprime Rhapsody
Is this the real price?
Is this just fantasy?
Financial landslide
No escape from reality
Open your eyes
And look at your buys and see.
I’m now a poor boy
High-yielding casualty
Because I bought it high, watched
it blow, Rating high, value low,
Any way the Fed goes
Doesn’t really matter to me,
Mama - just killed my fund
Quoted CDO’s instead
Pulled the trigger, now it’s dead
Mama - I had just begun
These CDO’s have blown it all away
.....You get the idea......
In the top-middle part of the
cover of the current issue of Time you'll find the question, "The
Blame-O-Meter: Who screwed up the economy?" Inside you'll find this
story by Justin Fox with the following graphic which, unfortunately, is
not available online:

To be fair, part of the graphic
extends to the right (not shown above) where blame for "Wall Street Wizards"
comes in somewhere between former Fed Chief Alan Greenspan and President George
Bush.
Casting further doubt on the impartiality of this otherwise fine article (i.e.,
does the President really deserve the
most blame?) is that the least amount
of blame (two ticks into the "Blameless" region of the Blame-O-Meter) is laid
at the feet of "Home Buyers".
For those of you keeping track at home, yes, this qualifies as a "Greenspan
Mess" sighting. Remember the rule - "Greenspan" and "mess" within one paragraph
or 100 words of each other either vertically, horizontally, OR diagonally.
Ministry of Truth Dictionary for the new brave financial world
DOUBLE = HALF
KNOW = GUESS
PROFIT = LOSS
LIGHT = DARK
FLAT = GLOSS
LUCK = LACK
GROSS = NET
SOAR = FALL
EVE = DAWN
LIFT = DROP
FIND = LOSE
UP = DOWN
PRO = CON
RISE = SET
ON = OFF
IN = OUT
Mar 24, 2008 |
Yahoo! NewsNo! No! No! No! No!
Yahoo! News Many in the community knew that the retired fire chief was really
an arsonist, but now the lady running for mayor wants to bring him back to help
put out the fires that still burn.
FT Alphaville
The top 16 big, fat lies de nos jours
1. Derivatives reduce volatility
2. The BRIC economies are decoupling
3. Inflation is 2 per cent
4. Greenspan was a maestro
5. The Chinese won’t let their market fall in Olympics year
6. (Junichiro) Koizumi reformed Japan
7. The Americans are devoted to free market solutions
8. The Swiss are prudent
9. The French are brilliant derivatives traders
10. The UK is suffering a housing shortage
11. Private equity funds add value to the companies they buy
12. The cap rate for real estate should be the government bond yield
13. Alastair Darling is in charge of the situation
14. Ben Bernanke is in charge of the situation 1
5. The G8 is in charge of the situation
16. Anyone is in charge of the situation
Comments
From Reuters comes this
story (hat tip MM) about a crazy new idea that's now sweeping across the
country - living with your means. The next thing you know, people will actually
begin to save money.
Alan Greenspan's Wikipedia entry in 2020:
"Former US Federal Reserve chairman chiefly known for implementing the disastrous
policies leading up to the 2008-?? recession that proved to be the death knell
of neo-liberalism. Also known as Rasputin of US finance.
Greenspan’s legacy, like that of the last president he served, was written
in the ashes of the unprecedented financial destruction that’s been brought
about by his policy failures."
Lehman, it was nice knowing you.
After yet another textbook-rewriting proposal from the Federal Reserve
Tuesday, what will it think of next to thaw the credit markets? An
exchange between a journalist and a Fed watcher:Journalist:
I keep expecting to get hit by a kitchen sink flying out of the Fed.
Fed watcher: Hold onto that sink. You’ll be able to repo
it at the discount window.
–Greg Ip
The Name of the Game is Pretending
- The rating agencies pretend the monolines deserve an AAA rating.
- The Bush administration pretends we are not in recession.
- The Fed pretends we are not in recession.
- The Fed pretends the TAF is temporary.
- The Fed pretends it knows what the collateral it is accepting is worth.
- The Fed pretends it is in control.
January 25, 2006 |
CrossingWallStreet.com
Portsmouth Herald News:
Academician has big shoes to fill as Fed Reserve head
San Diego Union Tribune:
Big shoes to fill
U.S. News and World Report:
Following the legend of Greenspan, Bernanke certainly has big shoes to
fill.
St. Petersburg Times:
One focus is the transition at the Federal Reserve Board, where Alan Greenspan
is on his way out as chairman and Ben Bernanke is stepping into those
extra-large shoes.
Black Enterprise:
Big Shoes to Fill
The
Daily Yomiuri
It will not be easy for Bernanke, who is tasked with overcoming domestic
and external problems that could short-circuit the currently sound U.S.
economy and to fill the big shoes of Greenspan, who has won international
recognition for his economic policies.
NPR:
In terms of his role as a political player, analysts agree he has some
big shoes to fill.
Investors Business Daily
Bernanke knows he has big shoes to fill.
Smart
Money:
You'd think Alan Greenspan shows up to work in a clown costume with all
the talk about the next Federal Reserve chairman having big shoes to
fill.
Calculated Risk Here is partial
excerpt from a great
Saturday Night Live piece in the late '70s, with Dan Aykroyd impersonating
Jimmy Carter:
Inflation is our friend. For example, consider this: in the year 2000, if
current trends continue, the average blue-collar annual wage in this country
will be $568,000. Think what this inflated world of the future will mean
- most Americans will be millionaires.
Everyone will feel like a bigshot. Wouldn't you like to own a $4,000
suit, and smoke a $75 cigar, drive a $600,000 car? I know I would! But what
about people on fixed incomes? They have always been the true victims of
inflation. That's why I will present to Congress the "Inflation Maintenance
Program", whereby the U.S. Treasury will make up any inflation-caused losses
to direct tax rebates to the public in cash.
Then you may say, "Won't that cost a lot of money? Won't that increase
the deficit?" Sure it will! But so what? We'll just print more money! We
have the papers, we have the mints.
[Feb 23, 2008] Troubling analogies between USSR and USSA (United Subprime
States of America).
- A near universal contempt for the political leadership (Leonid Brezhnev,
anybody ???)
- A near universal contempt for the economic policies.
- And in Europe this contempt is not veiled, its "in your face" ... loud,
impolite critics, few defenders.
- "I remember a cartoon back around 2001 where two sad looking wall street
suit type guys are sitting at a bar drinking Martinis when one says to the other
'I want my bubble back!' "
- Underwear from Wal-Mart, but chocolates from Godiva mentality
- Almost 9 million American households (against 4 million slaves in the American
South at the beginning of the US Civil War) are now tied down by negative equity
like Russian serfs
"Mankiw's 10 principles
of economics, translated for the uninitiated", by Yoram Bauman,
www.standupeconomist.com . Presented at the AAAS humor session, February
16, 2007.
The latest
foreclosure moratorium plan, announced earlier today, is all well and good
for delaying the inevitable - a major repricing of anything and everything that
has to do with real estate and mortgages now that everyone has regained their
senses - but it does little to get at the heart of the current problem.
Paraphrasing Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo, if banks and the government really
want to fix the current mess, they should get at the heart of the problem -
price declines, not foreclosures.
As the Orange One pointed out some time ago (see
Angelo Mozilo is a moron), as long as home prices continue to go down, foreclosures
will continue to rise.
The obvious solution? Stop home prices from declining. By decree.
This utterly hysterical Powerpoint has been
circulating round Wall Street trading desks for a few days now. I embedded it
into Google apps and posted it on line -- boom! Instant viral video. Now everyone
can enjoy the warped sense of humor that accompanies losing $100s of billions
of dollars. (MS Office not required)...
USATODAY.comYou've had a bad week. The new bumper on your car is going
to cost $3,000. Your tooth implants will send your dentist to Aruba. Your pen
pal in Nigeria didn't transfer $25 million to your bank account.
How could things get worse?
Oh, yeah. You own a junk-bond fund.
Asia
Times
In the United States, many prominent economists, including Clinton-era Treasury
secretary Laurence Summers, are proclaiming that the US economy desperately
needs this assistance. In a January 6 opinion piece in the Financial Times,
he laid out his argument as to why the US economy was in desperate need of aid.
Fiscal stimulus is appropriate as insurance because it is the fastest and
most reliable way of encouraging short-run economic growth at a time when
a serious recession downturn would pressure American families, exacerbate
financial strains, raise protectionist pressures and hurt the global economy.
Like a drunk in a bar ordering another round because he’s heard that, since
a glass of red wine a day has some purported health benefits, it’s logical to
assume that a whole bottle of 120-proof Scotch must have even more, the Congress
heard this wisdom, raised a glass to the fine Dr Summers, toasting, "I’ll drink
to that".
"monetarists, economists whose ideology revolves around a
hatred of wage inflation for the bottom 95% and taxes for the top 5% while never
meeting an asset price inflation it didn’t like."
See also YouTube - Every
Breath Bernanke Takes. It's really high qaulity parody... The lead performer's
name is Michael O'Rorke. MBA 2006... Poor Helicopter Ben :-). 4:15pm
The Big Picture reported that the
WSJ's Marketbeat
was just as amused:
Glenn Hubbard: King of Pain
Today's best four minutes of the day: an uproarious parody of the Police's
"Every Breath You Take" by students at Columbia Business School, which purports
to show the school's dean, Glenn Hubbard -- and, no, that is not Mr. Hubbard,
the school confirms, but a look-alike student -- taking Fed Chairman Ben
Bernanke to task for monetary policy mistakes (in a fit of jealousy over
not getting the position). It's hard to resist the charm of any attempt
to poke at the Fed, especially one that includes the couplet "Hope your
models break/bet that beard is fake." The real Mr. Hubbard was traveling
and could not be reached for comment.
April 26, 2006 [George W. Bush:]
"Ben Bernanke is the right man to build on the record that Alan Greenspan has
established. I will urge the Senate the act promptly to confirm Ben Bernanke
as the fourteenth Chairman of the Federal Reserve."
Every breath you take
Every change of rate
Jobs you don't create
While we still stagflate
I'll be watching you\
Every single day
Bernanke takes my pay
When growth goes away
Inflation will stay
I'll be watching you
Oh can't you see?
The Fed's where I should be
How my poor heart aches
With each of your mistakes
First you move your lips
Hike a few more BPS
When demand then dips
And the yield curve flips
I'll be watching you
Since you came supply's lost without a trace
I dream at night that I punch you in the face
Your interest policies I cannot embrace
I feel so wronged and I long for Greenspan's place
I keep cryin': Benny! Benny! Please...
Oh can't you see?
The Fed Chair should be me
How my poor heart aches
When prices escalate
Every move you make
Every oath you take
Hope your models break
Bet that beard is fake
I'll be watching you
CBS is great
Wouldn't change my fate
But we'll be watching you
We'll be watching you
The Epicurean Dealmaker
Recent readers of these pages will be aware that I have been engaged in an
ongoing dialogue of sorts with several market commentators concerning the
vexed and contentious issue of banker pay, especially as it relates to the ongoing
crisis in financial markets. While tempers may have flared, I do hope that we
can quickly move beyond casting aspersions
ASPERSE, v.t. Maliciously to ascribe to another vicious actions which
one has not had the temptation and opportunity to commit.
at each other and mutual backbiting
BACKBITE, v.t. To speak of a man as you find him when he can't find you.
about real or supposed injustices
INJUSTICE, n. A burden which of all those that we load upon others and
carry ourselves is lightest in the hands and heaviest upon the back.
alleged by one and sundry to have been committed by our fellow participants
in the financial economy. For the stakes are high for all of us, not just commercial
and investment bankers, to prevent a more permanent and damaging disruption
to the economy and the financial markets by precipitate and ill-conceived action
in any one area, including that of compensation to investment banking employees
and other financial middlemen.
While I fear it may be too late to keep this dispute out of the world of
POLITICS, n. A strife of interests masquerading as a contest of principles.
The conduct of public affairs for private advantage.
and the interfering hands of that most fearful and meddlesome creature, the
POLITICIAN, n. An eel in the fundamental mud upon which the superstructure
of organized society is reared. When we wriggles he mistakes the agitation
of his tail for the trembling of the edifice. As compared with the statesman,
he suffers the disadvantage of being alive.
I believe I echo the sentiments of many when I say I would prefer a thorough
airing of the situation in public to the resolution of our various grievances
through
LITIGATION, n. A machine which you go into as a pig and come out of as
a sausage.
So, while I remain resolutely convinced that banker pay is far more symptomatic
than causal for the bulk of the current problems under which we all suffer,
I do wish to
APOLOGIZE, v.i. To lay the foundation for a future offence.
to my various interlocutors for any
INJURY, n. An offense next in degree of enormity to a slight.
I may have caused them with my intemperate language and scathing sarcasm.
After all, I believe a fine Hegelian conflict of thesis and antithesis to be
the most effective way for all of us to discover the
TRUTH, n. An ingenious compound of desirability and appearance. Discovery
of truth is the sole purpose of philosophy, which is the most ancient occupation
of the human mind and has a fair prospect of existing with increasing activity
to the end of time.
about this issue, and I also believe it will help us move past this valley
of despond on to a bright and shining
FUTURE, n. That period of time in which our affairs prosper, our friends
are true and our happiness is assured.
* * *
I thank you for your attention, Fellow Citizens, and I look forward to your
vote in the coming primary election.
FAST WEALTH AND BITTER BREAD
The oil prices start
to soar
While Real Estate has
hit the floor,
The Stock Market is
jittery,
The future prospects
bitterly
Surveyed on Wall Street
and Main Street,
As all alike know they
must eat
Their bitter bread,
their bitter bread,
Who let fast wealth
get to their head.
So China props the dollar
up,
But will not fill your
beggar´s cup
When she determines
not to prop you--
So will not common sense
then stop you
From your spendthrift
indulgences?
No priest nor prophet
comes to bless
Your bitter bread, your
bitter bread,
Who let fast wealth
go to your head.
It was a fond, elusive
dream,
Illusory as it would
seem,
But, though superb ambitions
went
Before, it was all fraudulent,
This hope, sans rolling
up one´s sleeves
To profit--them delusion
leaves
But bitter bread, such
bitter bread,
Who let fast wealth
fill all their head.
The following is an
extract from “Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns & Unknowns in the Dazzling World
of Derivatives”J (2006; Pearson Education) © 2006 Satyajit Das
Position Title
(Rogue) Trader. (The “rogue”
term is generally not to be used explicitly especially with senior management,
directors, shareholders and clients for fear of misunderstanding.)
Reporting Line
The position reports along
“functional’ and “geographic” lines to the Head of Trading and Head of the Region.
(Nobody, really. A multi-dimensional matrix structure is currently in operation
so that everybody reports to several people allowing a total absence of accountability.)
Location
Optional. (Some candidates
may have a preference for working in head office where total confusion and chaos
reigns facilitating successful rogue trading. Other candidates may prefer a
remote location where benign neglect and absence of supervision may provide
rogue trading opportunities.)
Organisational
Environment
A leading edge investment
bank with a global brand, presence in key financial markets, superb product
range and unparalleled client list.
(Our PR firm told us this.)
A global trading team trading
in a wide variety of cash and synthetic instruments, including a number of “proprietary”
structures.
(You can lose money pretty
much any way you like. There are some trades that even we don’t understand but
the models say we are making money).
Supported by a world class
risk management team (they are readily identifiable by their guide dogs) and
operational staff and systems (they have been specially chosen for their total
ignorance.)
Excellent career prospects
(We have sinecures for everybody who has failed to perform.)
Key Responsibilities
Trading with the bank’s
capital to achieve targeted risk adjusted returns on capital under the bank’s
unique Economic Capital Allocation system. (If you are half as smart as you
think you are then you will be able to game the system from day 1. Everybody
else has.)
Developing innovative trading
strategies. (You need to be able to come up with hare brained trading schemes
based on the relationship between the El Nino cycle and market prices.)
Closely managing trading
positions. (You need to be able increase your bet when your position shows losses
until you bankrupt the firm.)
Major Challenges
Develop proper models and
valuation procedures (You need to ensure that all pricing models are impossible
to understand and give the valuations that you want by simple unverifiable changes
in model inputs.)
Risk management of positions
(You will need to fudge all the Greek risk measures. We suggest you start to
report risk data in an ancient Nubian dialect that is purely oral. You will
ensure that your risk always appears miniscule irrespective of market conditions.
People have a tendency to panic otherwise.)
Monitoring (You will need
to be able to disguise breaches by not booking the trades or taking advantage
of systems deficiencies.)
Control losses and volatility
of earnings (You must disguise losses either by recording them as amounts owed
to you (the Leeson gambit), undertaking off-market trades such as deep in-the-money
options (the Rusnak variation) or incorrect valuations (Rogue Trading 101).)
You need to be able to
take the trading function to a new plane. (You need to show larger losses than
the last rogue trader the firm employed.)
Selection Criteria
Detailed knowledge of financial
markets and trading techniques.
(You should wax lyrically
about obscure markets (the Zambian Kwatcho and Islamic finance techniques) and
complex mathematics (field theory; neural networks; fractals; Frank copula models).
Everybody will think you are a genius or a fool but will be unsure of which.)
Detailed knowledge of derivatives,
including exotic and non-standard structures. (Everybody knows that derivatives
allow highly leveraged positions that are impossible to understand or value
accurately.)
No minimum formal educational qualifications or direct previous experience in
a similar role is necessary. (Nobody believes your CV. It is merely a statement
of your aspirations. Nobody will believe you if you said that you had rogue
trading experience.)
Ability to communicate and work closely with senior management (You will need
to make sure that you generate enough “phantom” profits to make sure their bonus
expectations are met.)
Ability to work closely
with operational staff (You must bully them or cajole them into concealing limit
breaches and losses.)
Strong leadership qualities
(You will claim all profits are the result of your perspicacious skills. All
losses will either disappear or if found will be hedge losses offset against
gains in other positions.)
Desirable Criteria
Preferred age – under 30
years. (Have you ever heard of an old rogue trader? There is an exception for
Japanese rogue traders who are generally older.)
Strong personal qualities.
(You will have “attitude”. A year round sun tan and a wisp of beard underneath
your chin is good. You will treat everybody around you as idiots incapable of
understanding the complex nature of your trading strategies.)
Highly motivated. (You
will need to be able to hide losses and limit breaches. The Japanese rogue traders
never took holidays.)
Remuneration
Negotiable including a
strong performance linked component. (You don’t need to be paid as it is assumed
that you will defalcate ample amounts.)
Social Responsibility
Statement
We are proud to be an equal
opportunity employer. (We do not discriminate on any basis. How else can you
explain the calibre of Directors and Senior Management not to mention risk managers
and auditors that we have?)
Note: The idea is based
on a column published by Trevor Sykes (writing as Pierpoint) of the Australian
Financial Review [see “Indispensable Guide For Rogue Traders” (30 January 2004)
Australian Financial Review] However, the text is different.
Wednesday, August 08,
2007
The Shareholder Letter You Should, But Won’t,
Be Reading Next Spring
Dear Shareholder:
Well, it seemed like
a good idea at the time.
I am referring to
your board’s decision to approve a massive share buyback and huge special dividend
last summer, when the buzzwords going around Wall Street were “returning value
to shareholders.”
Why we did it was
this: a smart banker from Goldman Lehman Lynch & Sachs came in, all gussied
up and looking sharp, and made a terrific PowerPoint presentation to the board
with multi-colored slides that showed how paying a special $10 a share dividend,
plus buying back a bunch of our stock at the 52-week high, would “return value
to our shareholders.”
We should have thrown
the fellow out the window, along with his PowerPoint slides, but what happened
was, my fellow board members and I were so busy deleting emails from our Blackberries
that we just didn’t notice the last slide showing (in very tiny numbers) the
“Trump-style” debt we would be incurring to do so.
We also missed the
footnote showing the fees that would go to Goldman Stanley Lynch & Sachs for
the courtesy of their showing us how to wreck our balance sheet.
Those fees, I am embarrassed
to say, amounted to more money than we made the quarter before we “returned
value to shareholders.”
But the fact is, we’d
been getting so much pressure over the last few years from the hedge fund fellows
who own our stock for ten minutes tops, not to mention the so-called “analysts”
on Wall Street (around here we call them "Barking Seals"), to do something with
the cash...well, the truth is we just couldn’t stand answering our phones any
more.
So, in order to finally
start getting things done instead of spending all day explaining to these hedge
fund fellows and the Barking Seals on Wall Street why we weren’t “returning
value to shareholders,” we decided to do the big buyback and the big dividend.
And for a few weeks
there, it was pretty nice.
The stock jumped,
the phones stopped ringing, and the Barking Seals started congratulating us
on the conference calls instead of asking us when we were going to get rid of
our cash.
Unfortunately, not
only did getting rid of our cash and taking on a huge debt load NOT “return
value” to you, our shareholders, it actually crippled the company for years
to come.
For starters, as you
know, the aftermath of last summer’s sub-prime debt crisis is forcing perfectly
fine companies to liquidate businesses at fire-sale prices…but we can’t take
advantage of those prices, because we have no cash. And thanks to the debt we
incurred “returning value to shareholders,” the banks won’t loan us another
dime.
Secondly, as you also
know, we’ve had to lay off hundreds of loyal, hard working employees to pay
the interest expense and principal on all that debt, because unlike Donald Trump,
we actually feel like we ought to repay our debts.
Furthermore, as you
probably don’t know, we’ve also scaled back some interesting research projects
that had great long-term potential for the company, but were deemed too expensive
to continue in light of the fact that we have no cash.
Now, I’d feel a heck
of a lot worse about all this if we were the only company suckered into buying
our stock at a record high price and paying a big fat dividend on top of it.
But I’m happy to report
there were others who also did the same stupid thing.
For example, Cracker
Barrel, the restaurant chain that depends on people having enough money for
gas to get to its stores along Interstates across America, spent 46 bucks a
share for 5.4 million shares of its stock early last year to “return value to
shareholders.”
Cracker Barrel’s stock
now trades at $39.
And Scott’s Miracle-Gro,
whose business is so seasonal it loses money two quarters out of four, put over
a billion dollars of debt on its books with the kind of special dividend and
share buyback we did.
Health Management
Associates—a healthcare chain that can’t collect money from about a quarter
of the patients it handles—paid shareholders ten bucks a share in a special
dividend to “return value to shareholders” and then missed its very next earnings
report because of all those unpaid bills and all that new interest expense it
was paying.
Oh, and Dean Foods,
a commodity dairy processor with 2% profit margins, returned all sorts of value
to shareholders early last year—almost $2 billion worth—just before its business
went to hell in a hand basket when raw milk prices soared.
So, you see, everybody
was doing it.
And boy, do I wish we hadn’t.
Jeff Matthews
I Am Not Making
This Up
A nice story relevant to most 401K investors
There's a guy who lives in Ohio. One morning, he hears a voice in his head.
The voice says,
"Quit your job, sell your house, take all your money, and go to Las Vegas."
He ignores the voice.
Later in the day, he hears the voice again.
"Quit your job, sell your house, take all your money, and go to Las Vegas."
Again, he ignores the voice.
Soon he hears the voice every minute of the day.
"Quit your job, sell your house, take all your money, and go to Las Vegas."
He can't take it anymore. He believes the voice.
He quits his job, sells his house, takes all his money, and flies to Las Vegas.
As soon as he steps off the plane, the voice says, "Go to the roulette."
He goes to roulette table.
The voice says, "Put all your money on black"
He puts up his all money on black.
The game ends with red winning.
The voice says, "Fuck."
Jan. 18 | Bloomberg
Mr. Alan Greenspan Greenspan Associates
1133 Connecticut Avenue NW Washington, DC 20500
Dear Mr. Greenspan:
I was somewhat surprised to read that you had been hired as an adviser to
John Paulson, the hedge fund manager who made a killing last year betting against
the mess you made. The irony is really rich: Paying someone whose policy mistakes
and missteps were the source of your success! I'm sure it will be a productive
working relationship for everyone involved.
What got my wheels turning, though, was re-reading your comments about your
``Rule of One,'' as I call it. You have said that you would consult with only
one client in each industry.
So far, your roster includes one bank (Deutsche Bank AG), one bond-fund manager
(Pimco), and now one hedge fund. I'm sure there's some overlap in what these
firms do, but my intent here isn't to quibble about details.
If I understand you correctly -- you speak much more clearly than you did
when you were Fed chairman, now that you're getting paid a bundle per word --
you still have an opening for a media company. So I'd like to propose what I
think could be a mutually beneficial relationship between you and, yes, me.
The benefits to you should be immediately apparent.
1. Buying Access
With each announcement of your exclusive consulting relationship with a client,
the chatter is that these firms are buying ``access'': access to your institutional
knowledge of the Fed; access to your Rolodex; access to any inside information
you might get from policy makers in the U.S. and overseas.
The way I see it, it wouldn't be a bad idea for you to buy access -- from
me. Lots of politicians see my column; maybe even a few who are running for
president. I might be able to put in a good word for you that would give you
a shot at Treasury secretary, an opportunity lost when Jimmy Carter defeated
Jerry Ford in 1976.
Running the mint isn't nearly as glamorous as controlling the printing press,
but at least it keeps you in the public eye (not that you ever left it).
2. Keep Your Friends Close, And Your Enemies Closer
Let's face it: No one has been a bigger thorn in your side than yours truly.
I started my journalism career a few months before you landed at the Fed, and
we've been joined at the hip ever since.
If I were on your payroll, you can be pretty sure I'd be talking you up rather
than putting you down. I mean, it wasn't until Bill Gross hired you that he
stopped trashing you. And you didn't even have to pay him to change his tune!
If you put me on retainer, you'll be surprised how easily I can be persuaded
to see economic history in a different light.
Remember how you denied there could be a housing bubble, only belatedly acknowledging
some ``froth'' in certain local markets? I've already forgotten you said that,
along with your lament on how homeowners would have done better with adjustable-
rate mortgages.
Or how about that ridiculously low federal funds rate that overstayed its
usefulness for years, not months? I think I could make an argument, based on
a ``risk-management'' approach, that it was necessary to ward off deflation.
In other words, Mr. Greenspan, money talks -- or in this case, money would
encourage me to talk less, if you know what I mean.
3. Playing Cyrano to Your Christian
Just as Christian de Neuvillette used Cyrano de Bergerac's words to woo Roxane,
you, sir, could use a bit more dash when it comes to preserving or, at this
point, resuscitating your legacy.
No one ever accused me of being dull or uninspired. And I've always had a
hankering to play Cyrano, sucker that I am for that swashbuckling, romantic
stuff.
``I draw my sword and raise it high.'' ``Let me choose my rhymes.'' ``Then,
as I end the refrain, thrust home!'' Oh, it will be grand. Together we can win
their hearts!
4. A Better Crystal Ball
This may be a sore subject with you, but your forecasting acumen hasn't been
the best. Your visibility on bubbles has been close to zero. You were late to
see recession in both 1990 and 2001. Your rationalizations for your forecasts
have been pretty lame as well.
Money manager Bill Fleckenstein sets your record straight in a just-published
book, which isn't likely to be a coffee-table fixture in your household.
If you saddle up with me, you can get rid of all those arcane manufacturing
ratios and obscure indicators you used to pull out of a hat to justify a policy
action. You can do better watching two rates -- the overnight rate that the
Fed sets and the long-term rate determined by the market -- than you can with
the 18,500 indicators you reportedly track in the bathtub.
I'd like to thank you in advance for considering my offer. I'm ready to proceed
with negotiations as soon as I hear back from you.
Very truly yours,
Caroline A. Baum
Ladies whose husbands are undone by Bubbles,
Meet at a Tavern to Lament their Troubles,
At length they all agree upon Petition,
To Pray the State to Mend their Bad Condition
You know, Dear Readers, having been an investment banker for lo these many
moons, I long ago abandoned whatever starry-eyed dreams I might have entertained
in my callow youth of obtaining a measure of social respectability for the stature
and gravitas of my chosen profession (accompanied, of course, by a comfortable
pile of shiny simoleons). Investment bankers, in modern capitalist society,
seem to fall into that social class of people which everyone else despises vociferously
as greedy, money-grubbing whores, unprincipled shills and hucksters who are
only marginally less despicable than personal injury lawyers or Flavor Flav.
Of course, this universally fashionable scorn is never in evidence when the
citizen in question is desperately trying to get into Harvard Business School
so he or she can become an investment banker, wheedling them to donate
to his or her favorite charity, attempting to sell them an overpriced condominium
in a brand new building stuffed to the gills with other investment bankers,
or persuading them to marry their comely daughter (or him- or herself).
And yet—at the risk of incurring the opprobrium of the chattering classes
by tooting my own horn—I will assert that there are indeed a number of admirable
traits and characteristics which can be fairly laid at the gilded doorstep of
Homo investmentbankicus. While it is true that many are venal, corrupt,
and/or have the interpersonal skills of Mr. Hyde on a bender, it is also true
that quite a few are charming, politic, and even genuinely nice people. I am
sure I will strain your credulity somewhat less by also asserting that, as a
group, investment bankers tend to be better-educated, more worldly, and harder
working than the average capitalist wage slave. While they are neither necessary
nor sufficient for a successful career in investment banking, native intelligence,
grit, and ambition are character traits which are liberally sprinkled throughout
the cohorts of Wall Street. And, the last time I checked, these traits tend
to be the same ones which most Americans claim to admire as valid tickets to
the good life.
Certainly, there is very little about the monetary rewards accruing to the
successful investment banker which is due to nepotism, cronyism, or inherited
wealth or position. (The pre-1973 days when investment banking was an undemanding
profession populated by the dull and unambitious sons of wealthy WASPs is long
gone.) If you can't cut it on your own pluck, skills, and drive, you have no
place in this industry. There are no Rigas, Murdoch, or—dare I say it?—Bush
or Clinton dynasties in investment banking: it's too bloody hard. Scratch your
average investment banker's Kiton suit, and you will usually find a genuinely
self-made man or woman underneath.
So what's not to like? Well, the common complaint is that we make too much
money, and we add little value to the economy or society.
But I'd be careful, if I were you, about adopting such an opinion without
thinking it through. After all, how much "value" does your little profession
add to the common weal? By whose calculation? And since when has capitalism
paid laborers for the value they contribute to the general good anyway? My economics
professors taught me that wage rates are set by market forces, which follow
their own internal logic almost wholly divorced from such concepts as social
good, intrinsic value, or even the difficulty of the work in question. If that
were not true, then surely the soldiers under fire in Iraq and Afghanistan would
be making a hell of a lot more money than your (or my) sorry little ass.
And like it or not, investment bankers do perform a function which is inseparable
from the proper functioning of a capitalist economy. At its most basic, investment
bankers are middlemen: we grease the wheels of commerce, of investment, of capital
formation and allocation, and of wealth creation. Strictly speaking, investment
bankers perform none of those actions themselves. When we do, our role blurs,
and we become investors, capitalists, or hedge
1 Gordon Brown has run the economy prudently.
2 The credit crunch was caused by sub-prime lending in America.
3 The credit crunch will not spread to the real economy.
4 The banking system has been lending responsibly.
5 The authorities have been watchful, understand the problems and will continue to take prompt, appropriate and timely action.
6 World asset values will not fall significantly.
7 The world banking system will be able to adjust to the reduced asset values that world debt is secured against.
8 This is a temporary adjustment, before normality resumes.
9 America’s position in the world will not be affected.
10 China will co-operate to maintain the status quo so that Western profligacy can continue.
11 Economic power, then political power and then military supremacy will remain in the West.
12 The Western way of life is not under threat and Western capitalism, democracy and aspirations will spread throughout the Middle East, China, Russia, Africa, South America, etc.
13 All these fundamental truths are understood by George Bush. People who think differently do not have George’s depth of understanding.
14 The greatest philosophical truths emanate from Texas.