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Disparity? What 'disparity'? Back in the Goode Olde Days, people spent uncounted hours trying to forecast the future. If they had a cat, they could try felidomancy, which is the art of using cats to predict the future. If they had feet, they could try pedomancy.

Nowadays, people indulge in fedomancy, which is the art of predicting interest rates by observing the Federal Reserve Board. It's a difficult practice.

John Wagooner,
 USA Today

God, grant me the capital to accept the things I cannot change; the reserves to change the things I can; and the Fed Auction when all that blows up. Amen.

Calculated Risk

Skeptic dictionary




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Old News ;-)

[May 3, 2008] Fed Humor.....


Thanks to the Economist
 

[May 1, 2008] The latest nickname for UBS is "Used to Be Smart"

[Apr 27, 2008] Cassandra Does Tokyo Earth to Exchanges Raise Margin Requirements Now!!!

March 04, 2008 | Cassandra Does Tokyo

(Fade in to telephone ringing.....)

Brrrring Brrrrring.

EARTH: Hello? Futures Exchanges?
This is Planet Earth calling.

FUTURES EXCHANGE(S): (in Nasal BQ Accent) Yea? Waddda youze want?

EARTH: Ummmm if you look out the window, we seem to be encoutnering a bit of turbulence. Or is Turbolence. Oh well, never mind spelling or semantics, things are turbo-ing and we here on Planet Earth are becoming concerned that someone will get hurt. Errrr, yes, hurt rather badly.

FUTURES EXCHANGE(S): Whoozit you sez you were again?

EARTH: Errr Planet Earth. Terra Firma. Gaia. The Big Blue Marble.

FUTURES EXCHANGE(S): Did Vinny put yooze up to this?

EARTH: Ahem No. We're calling in respect of The Public Interest.

FUTURES EXCHANGE(S): Waddaya want again.

EARTH: Well we were thinking you should be thinking about raising margin requirements for speculators. Significantly. And increasing the penalties for mis-categorization as a Hedger to "Death".

FUTURES EXCHANGE(S): Vinny DID put ya up ta this!! Yooze are trying to mussel in my rackit arentcha??

EARTH: No. Now please I implore you. Things are really getting out of hand. Traders are embarking upon positions on the basis of the thin-ness of trade and the fact that you're the ONLY leverage in town. This is a recipe for disaster....

FUTURES EXCHANGE(S): Are you CRAZY? I'ze live for days like these. THIS is what its all about. But you looks like a nice boy, prolly got some wop blood in ya so I tell ya what: "I'll do you a favor and swop the caffinated jo' for decaf. THAT should cool things off a bit.

EARTH: Ummmm errrr. yes thanks. Now about those margin requirements....

 

[Apr 24, 2008] Bloomberg.com Opinion

Trust in Central Banks Passes Point of No Return: Mark Gilbert

Commentary by Mark Gilbert

April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Here's the plan. Hokey-Cokey Bank bundles together its tainted 2007 mortgages and bakes an asset- backed bond. It hands that bond to the Bank of England in return for a bag of freshly minted U.K. government gilts. It then uses those shiny new gilts as collateral to borrow much-needed money.

What would you, as the treasurer of Hokey-Cokey Bank, do with that cash? Would you:

(A) lend it to eager first-time buyers Bob and Sue to purchase that apartment they want, even though every bone in your body tells you property prices are headed down, down, down?

(B) hand it to Tom, who also wants the apartment, except that he plans to rent it to Bob and Sue for less than he'll have to pay every month on the mortgage?

(C) scurry to the Hokey-Cokey vault as fast as your little legs will carry you, toss in the cash, lock the door, and tell your chief executive the liquidity problem is resolved and he won't have to beg the shareholders for fresh capital after all.

Hello? Am I missing something here?

 

[Apr 19, 2008] We're All Busta Now

Calculated Risk

Our Brian forwarded this email to me yesterday, and I haven't stopped chuckling yet. It's very well done and certainly appears to be a legitimate "memorandum" from Accredited. Apparently no one has yet managed to get it posted on Accredited's website, which would formalize the joke nicely, but that's no reason not to share it:
April 18, 2008 - San Diego , CA

Accredited Home Lenders is pleased to announce the promotion of Miss Helen Busta to the newly created position of Chief Advisor of Things Both Relevant and Interesting in the Non-Conforming Loan Market.

The position was created to help set the record straight in a market that's been turned upside down. Miss Busta will apply her vast knowledge and years of industry experience to bust the subprime myths that are so prevalent today.

As a young woman, Miss Busta arrived in San Diego from the Midwest and took a job in the mortgage industry as a temp. She was soon hired by Accredited to help out in the company's first office above an auto repair shop. Miss Busta earned her B.A. in History from San Diego State University while working full-time at Accredited.

Her duties will include advising Accredited staff and helping brokers build their non-conforming business. Miss Busta will soon launch her own Web site, where she will answer any and all questions regarding the mortgage industry. Her long-standing service to Accredited and wealth of knowledge from 20 years in home lending have made Miss Busta a solid performer in any type of economic climate.

Please extend your congratulations to Miss Helen Busta on her significant achievement.

 

[Apr 6, 2008] Like an Onion

SDO insurance was just a fig leaf that masked bad odor.  A nice confidence building game for lemmings matching toward the cliff ;-)

Financial Armageddon

My thought for the day: The credit crisis is like an onion: every time you peel back another layer, you want to cry.

... ... ..

Why would banks buy insurance on AAA securities, especially from ACA, which had only an A rating? That would be akin to homeowners at the top of the hill purchasing flood insurance from a company at the side of a river. If a flood did happen, the insurer wouldn't be around to pay any claims

[Apr 6, 2008] More than 50 percent chance of U.S. recession Greenspan - Yahoo! News

Old man reputation as a forecaster makes him good only for Comedy Central now. And the fact that Ei Pais bothered to ask for his views is an exquisite humor in itself.  Endorcemnt of Mcain should be judged similarly.

There is more than a 50 percent chance the United States could go into recession, former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan told El Pais newspaper in an interview published on Sunday.

... ... ...

Greenspan, the U.S. Fed chairman from 1987 to 2006, endorsed the Republican presidential candidate John McCain in the interview.

"I'm Republican and I support John McCain, who I know very well and who I respect a lot," he said.

[Apr 6, 2008] naked capitalism Robert Shiller Pushes Fed as Stability Regulator

When the monkey steals the keys to all the cages in the zoo, you're going to have a problem. In our great nation, there are a limited number of potential institutions which could exercise authority over those
"monkeys" which have destabilized the financial system, and from the perspective of competence, independence and the possession of a clear understanding of the inter-market linkages, the list is as ugly as it is short.
!. Congress
2. The President
3. The Courts
4. The Treasury
5. The Fed
6. An agency yet to be named
The big problem is that the "monkeys" will ALWAYS be smarter than 1-4, and ALMOST ALWAYS smarter than 5-6. They will also always be wealthier, and hence more influential, than 1-6, and will find ways to neuter rules they consider onerous, with a packed Supreme court on their side, should congress or the president fail to support them. In the end, there is only one regulator who can clean up the AUGEAN STABLE. His name is Mr. Market.

[Apr 5, 2008] Bernanke Says Recession Possible

"Poor guy. Is he really the last person they told?"

"Everybody and your mother knows it's a recession, except for President Bush and Bernanke," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI. "They know in private, but it's their role to be cheerleaders for the economy."

[Apr 3, 2008] Closing the 'Collapse Gap' the USSR was better prepared for collapse than the US EnergyBulletin.net Peak Oil News Clearinghouse

Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. I am not an expert or a scholar or an activist. I am more of an eye-witness. I watched the Soviet Union collapse, and I have tried to put my observations into a concise message. I will leave it up to you to decide just how urgent a message it is.

My talk tonight is about the lack of collapse-preparedness here in the United States. I will compare it with the situation in the Soviet Union, prior to its collapse. The rhetorical device I am going to use is the "Collapse Gap" – to go along with the Nuclear Gap, and the Space Gap, and various other superpower gaps that were fashionable during the Cold War.

[Apr 3, 2008] The Ethics of Harvard MBAs

With professors like Andrei Shleifer  the prominent academic who has side business of " looting of post-Soviet Russia" what should you expect ? 

After the accounting scandals of 2002, where Skilling and other Harvard MBAs played high-profile roles, the school studied what it could do to improve the conduct of its graduates. It concluded that students' ethical compasses were set before they got there, which one could view either as accurate or a way of punting.

[Apr 2, 2008] The Day the Subprime Died (rewind) - Mortgage Grapevine

With apologies to Don McLean.

The Day the Subprime Died

A long, long time ago...
I can still remember
How that yield spread made me smile.
And I knew if I had my chance
Those mohos I could finance
And I could pay my bills for a while.

But February made me shiver
With every good faith I’d deliver.
Bad news on my e-mail
I just lost one more sale.

I can’t remember if I cried
When I saw the Fremont slide
But something touched me deep inside
The day the Subprime died.

So bye-bye, B\C money supply.
Sent my package to four lenders
But they all asked me why.
And good old boys were on a crack induced high
Singin’, "This’ll be the day the loans die,
This’ll be the day the loans die."

Did you write some B\C loans,
Did you blow bucks on the iPhone?,
Did that nut Cramer tell you so?
Do you believe in rate control,
Can FHA save your borrower’s soul,
Why is underwriting today so damn slow?

Well, I know you’ll have to cut those fees
And you’re wondering who has moved your cheese.
Bernarke’s on the news.
You can’t afford the MBA dues.

I was a semi-rich middle-aged broncin’ buck
With a master plan and a lot of pluck,
But I knew I was out of luck
The day the Subprime died.

So bye-bye, B\C money supply.
Sent my package to four lenders
But they all asked me why.
And good old boys were on a crack induced high
Singin’, "This’ll be the day the loans die.”

Copyright © 2007 Bad Grapes Inc. (ASCAP)
International Copyright Secured. All Rights Reserved.

by Cedonullandvoid August 12, 2007

[Apr 1, 2008]   New UBS Logo

Calculated Risk



Source: Jan-Martin Feddersen, Immobilienblasen who writes:

I think it is a good start to kick off the "Fools Day" with news from the the greatest fool UBS.
(hat tip Dwight) Here is the actually UBS logo.

[Mar 28, 2008] OldVet on Forced Marriages, Bear Stearns

This one is by OldVet...

---



There I was holding my head and moaning and crying about how the banking system and the financial system were on the verge of collapse. I saw the forced marriage, or ménage-a-deux, between JP Morgan and Bear Stearns.

But the Fed was involved, which couldn’t be good. Oh God, please help us.

Then I realized it was really a ménage-a-trois, what with the head of JP Morgan being on the board of directors of the New York Fed. It was a family affair. The family was taking care of its own. Brilliant. I’m now free of stress and ready to get back to the trough! Get out your wallets, oinkers.

[Mar 28, 2008] From Animal Farm To Animal House

In Orwell's Animal Farm all animals are equal - except that some are more equal than others. All in the spirit of law, order and the proper functioning of society, of course. Fittingly, the animals that have chosen this role by themselves and for themselves, are the pigs.

Cut to US financial markets today. After years of swinish behavior more reminiscent of Animal House than anything else, the pigs are threatening to destroy the entire farm. As if it wasn't enough that they devoured all the "free market" food available and inundated the world with their excreta, they now wish to be put on the public trough. Truly, some businessmen believe they are more equal than others.

But do not blame the pigs; they are expected to act as swine nature dictates. The fault lies entirely with the farmers, those authorities entrusted by the people to oversee the farm because they supposedly knew better. While the pigs were rampaging and tearing the place apart, they were assuring us all that farms function best when animals are free to do as they please, guided solely by invisible hooves. No regulation, no oversight, no common sense. Oh yes, and pigs fly..

[Mar 27, 2008] The Fed Now a bad parody of itself

Looks like Fed clowns are having their best days...  I really like subtle humor of  Kroszner self-annihilation:  "Substantial anecdotal evidence indicates that failing to verify (a borrower's) income invited fraud..."  The only question that arises is "Should he get a jail term or just a probation"  for the dereliction of duty.

The Mess That Greenspan Made

According to this report in the Associated Press, the Federal Reserve is now bolstering confidence in the mortgage lending market by proposing sweeping new rules:
 

It also would prohibit lenders from engaging in a pattern or practice of lending without considering a borrower's ability to repay a home loan from sources other than the home's value. The proposal would curtail misleading ads for many types of mortgages and bolster financial disclosures to borrowers.

"Substantial anecdotal evidence indicates that failing to verify (a borrower's) income invited fraud," said (Fed Governor Randall) Kroszner, who has been the Fed's point person on the consumer protection provisions.
Come on AP, is this really you or were you invaded by writers from The Onion?

[Mar 26, 2008]  FT.com - Markets - Smile through the crisis

Societe Generale crisis management flowchart

[Mar 26, 2008] FT.com - Markets - Smile through the crisis

"What’s the difference between a stockbroker and a pigeon? A pigeon can still leave a deposit on a Porsche."

Subprime Rhapsody

Is this the real price?
Is this just fantasy?
Financial landslide
No escape from reality
Open your eyes
And look at your buys and see.
I’m now a poor boy
High-yielding casualty
Because I bought it high, watched it blow, Rating high, value low,
Any way the Fed goes
Doesn’t really matter to me,

Mama - just killed my fund
Quoted CDO’s instead
Pulled the trigger, now it’s dead
Mama - I had just begun
These CDO’s have blown it all away

.....You get the idea......

 

[Mar 24, 2008]  The Economy Blame-O-Meter

In the top-middle part of the cover of the current issue of Time you'll find the question, "The Blame-O-Meter: Who screwed up the economy?" Inside you'll find this story by Justin Fox with the following graphic which, unfortunately, is not available online:

To be fair, part of the graphic extends to the right (not shown above) where blame for "Wall Street Wizards" comes in somewhere between former Fed Chief Alan Greenspan and President George Bush.

Casting further doubt on the impartiality of this otherwise fine article (i.e., does the President really deserve the most blame?) is that the least amount of blame (two ticks into the "Blameless" region of the Blame-O-Meter) is laid at the feet of "Home Buyers".

For those of you keeping track at home, yes, this qualifies as a "Greenspan Mess" sighting. Remember the rule - "Greenspan" and "mess" within one paragraph or 100 words of each other either vertically, horizontally, OR diagonally.
 

Ministry of Truth Dictionary for the new brave financial world

DOUBLE = HALF
KNOW = GUESS
PROFIT = LOSS
 
LIGHT = DARK
FLAT = GLOSS
LUCK = LACK
GROSS = NET
SOAR = FALL
 
EVE = DAWN
LIFT = DROP
FIND = LOSE
UP = DOWN
 
PRO = CON
RISE = SET
ON = OFF
IN = OUT

[Mar 24, 2008] Clinton proposes Greenspan lead foreclosure group -

Mar 24, 2008 |  Yahoo! News

No! No! No! No! No!

Yahoo! News Many in the community knew that the retired fire chief was really an arsonist, but now the lady running for mayor wants to bring him back to help put out the fires that still burn.

[Mar 21, 2008]  Sixteen of the biggest, fattest porkies

FT Alphaville

The top 16 big, fat lies de nos jours

1. Derivatives reduce volatility

2. The BRIC economies are decoupling

3. Inflation is 2 per cent

4. Greenspan was a maestro

5. The Chinese won’t let their market fall in Olympics year

6. (Junichiro) Koizumi reformed Japan

7. The Americans are devoted to free market solutions

8. The Swiss are prudent

9. The French are brilliant derivatives traders

10. The UK is suffering a housing shortage

11. Private equity funds add value to the companies they buy

12. The cap rate for real estate should be the government bond yield

13. Alastair Darling is in charge of the situation

14. Ben Bernanke is in charge of the situation 1

5. The G8 is in charge of the situation

16. Anyone is in charge of the situation

Comments
  1. Here are some alternative porkies :

    1 Gordon Brown has run the economy prudently.

    2 The credit crunch was caused by sub-prime lending in America.

    3 The credit crunch will not spread to the real economy.

    4 The banking system has been lending responsibly.

    5 The authorities have been watchful, understand the problems and will continue to take prompt, appropriate and timely action.

    6 World asset values will not fall significantly.

    7 The world banking system will be able to adjust to the reduced asset values that world debt is secured against.

    8 This is a temporary adjustment, before normality resumes.

    9 America’s position in the world will not be affected.

    10 China will co-operate to maintain the status quo so that Western profligacy can continue.

    11 Economic power, then political power and then military supremacy will remain in the West.

    12 The Western way of life is not under threat and Western capitalism, democracy and aspirations will spread throughout the Middle East, China, Russia, Africa, South America, etc.

    13 All these fundamental truths are understood by George Bush. People who think differently do not have George’s depth of understanding.

    14 The greatest philosophical truths emanate from Texas.

[Mar 17, 2008]  A shocking new concept - living within your means

From Reuters comes this story (hat tip MM) about a crazy new idea that's now sweeping across the country - living with your means. The next thing you know, people will actually begin to save money.

[Mar 17, 2008] naked capitalism Greenspan Now Blames the Risk Models

Alan Greenspan's Wikipedia entry in 2020:

"Former US Federal Reserve chairman chiefly known for implementing the disastrous policies leading up to the 2008-?? recession that proved to be the death knell of neo-liberalism. Also known as Rasputin of US finance.

Greenspan’s legacy, like that of the last president he served, was written in the ashes of the unprecedented financial destruction that’s been brought about by his policy failures."

[Mar 16, 2008] JPMorgan buys Bear Stearns for $2 a share

Lehman, it was nice knowing you.

[Mar 12, 2008] Economics Blog Fed Creativity an Exchange

The Fed is now the worlds biggest SIV! Kudos Henry Paulson aka Mr. SuperSIV!
After yet another textbook-rewriting proposal from the Federal Reserve Tuesday, what will it think of next to thaw the credit markets? An exchange between a journalist and a Fed watcher:

Journalist: I keep expecting to get hit by a kitchen sink flying out of the Fed.

Fed watcher: Hold onto that sink. You’ll be able to repo it at the discount window.

–Greg Ip

[Mar 11, 2008] The Great Pretender

The Name of the Game is Pretending

[Mar 3, 2008] Was former  Fed Chairman a clown wearing too big shooes ?

January 25, 2006 | CrossingWallStreet.com

Portsmouth Herald News:

Academician has big shoes to fill as Fed Reserve head

San Diego Union Tribune:

Big shoes to fill

U.S. News and World Report:

Following the legend of Greenspan, Bernanke certainly has big shoes to fill.

St. Petersburg Times:

One focus is the transition at the Federal Reserve Board, where Alan Greenspan is on his way out as chairman and Ben Bernanke is stepping into those extra-large shoes.

Black Enterprise:

Big Shoes to Fill

The Daily Yomiuri

It will not be easy for Bernanke, who is tasked with overcoming domestic and external problems that could short-circuit the currently sound U.S. economy and to fill the big shoes of Greenspan, who has won international recognition for his economic policies.

NPR:

In terms of his role as a political player, analysts agree he has some big shoes to fill.

Investors Business Daily

Bernanke knows he has big shoes to fill.

Smart Money:

You'd think Alan Greenspan shows up to work in a clown costume with all the talk about the next Federal Reserve chairman having big shoes to fill.

[Feb 28, 2008] Inflation is Your (Ben's) Friend

Calculated Risk Here is partial excerpt from a great Saturday Night Live piece in the late '70s, with Dan Aykroyd impersonating Jimmy Carter:
Inflation is our friend. For example, consider this: in the year 2000, if current trends continue, the average blue-collar annual wage in this country will be $568,000. Think what this inflated world of the future will mean - most Americans will be millionaires.

Everyone will feel like a bigshot. Wouldn't you like to own a $4,000 suit, and smoke a $75 cigar, drive a $600,000 car? I know I would! But what about people on fixed incomes? They have always been the true victims of inflation. That's why I will present to Congress the "Inflation Maintenance Program", whereby the U.S. Treasury will make up any inflation-caused losses to direct tax rebates to the public in cash.

Then you may say, "Won't that cost a lot of money? Won't that increase the deficit?" Sure it will! But so what? We'll just print more money! We have the papers, we have the mints.

[Feb 23, 2008]  Troubling analogies between USSR and USSA (United Subprime States of America).

[Feb 20, 2008] Calculated Risk

"Mankiw's 10 principles of economics, translated for the uninitiated", by Yoram Bauman, www.standupeconomist.com . Presented at the AAAS humor session, February 16, 2007.

[Feb 20, 2008] What they need is a moratorium on price declines

The latest foreclosure moratorium plan, announced earlier today, is all well and good for delaying the inevitable - a major repricing of anything and everything that has to do with real estate and mortgages now that everyone has regained their senses - but it does little to get at the heart of the current problem.

Paraphrasing Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo, if banks and the government really want to fix the current mess, they should get at the heart of the problem - price declines, not foreclosures.

As the Orange One pointed out some time ago (see Angelo Mozilo is a moron), as long as home prices continue to go down, foreclosures will continue to rise.

The obvious solution? Stop home prices from declining. By decree.

[Feb 19, 2008] How SubPrime Really Works 

This utterly hysterical Powerpoint has been circulating round Wall Street trading desks for a few days now. I embedded it into Google apps and posted it on line -- boom! Instant viral video. Now everyone can enjoy the warped sense of humor that accompanies losing $100s of billions of dollars. (MS Office not required)...

[Feb 18, 2008] Slowing economy scuppers junk-bond funds  by John Waggoner

USATODAY.com

You've had a bad week. The new bumper on your car is going to cost $3,000. Your tooth implants will send your dentist to Aruba. Your pen pal in Nigeria didn't transfer $25 million to your bank account.

How could things get worse?

Oh, yeah. You own a junk-bond fund.

[Feb 17, 2008] Physician heal thyself  by Julian Delasantellis

Asia Times

In the United States, many prominent economists, including Clinton-era Treasury secretary Laurence Summers, are proclaiming that the US economy desperately needs this assistance. In a January 6 opinion piece in the Financial Times, he laid out his argument as to why the US economy was in desperate need of aid.

Fiscal stimulus is appropriate as insurance because it is the fastest and most reliable way of encouraging short-run economic growth at a time when a serious recession downturn would pressure American families, exacerbate financial strains, raise protectionist pressures and hurt the global economy.
Like a drunk in a bar ordering another round because he’s heard that, since a glass of red wine a day has some purported health benefits, it’s logical to assume that a whole bottle of 120-proof Scotch must have even more, the Congress heard this wisdom, raised a glass to the fine Dr Summers, toasting, "I’ll drink to that".

[Feb 8, 2008] Boom in the Doom - iTulip.com Forums

"monetarists, economists whose ideology revolves around a hatred of wage inflation for the bottom 95% and taxes for the top 5% while never meeting an asset price inflation it didn’t like."

[ Feb 1, 2008] CBS Follies Every Breath You Take Lyrics

See also YouTube - Every Breath Bernanke Takes. It's really high qaulity parody...  The lead performer's name is Michael O'Rorke. MBA 2006... Poor Helicopter Ben :-). 4:15pm

The Big Picture  reported that the WSJ's Marketbeat was just as amused:

Glenn Hubbard: King of Pain

Today's best four minutes of the day: an uproarious parody of the Police's "Every Breath You Take" by students at Columbia Business School, which purports to show the school's dean, Glenn Hubbard -- and, no, that is not Mr. Hubbard, the school confirms, but a look-alike student -- taking Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to task for monetary policy mistakes (in a fit of jealousy over not getting the position). It's hard to resist the charm of any attempt to poke at the Fed, especially one that includes the couplet "Hope your models break/bet that beard is fake." The real Mr. Hubbard was traveling and could not be reached for comment.

April 26, 2006 [George W. Bush:] "Ben Bernanke is the right man to build on the record that Alan Greenspan has established. I will urge the Senate the act promptly to confirm Ben Bernanke as the fourteenth Chairman of the Federal Reserve."

Every breath you take
Every change of rate
Jobs you don't create
While we still stagflate
I'll be watching you\

Every single day
Bernanke takes my pay
When growth goes away
Inflation will stay
I'll be watching you

Oh can't you see?
The Fed's where I should be
How my poor heart aches
With each of your mistakes

First you move your lips
Hike a few more BPS
When demand then dips
And the yield curve flips
I'll be watching you

Since you came supply's lost without a trace
I dream at night that I punch you in the face
Your interest policies I cannot embrace
I feel so wronged and I long for Greenspan's place
I keep cryin': Benny! Benny! Please...

Oh can't you see?
The Fed Chair should be me
How my poor heart aches
When prices escalate

Every move you make
Every oath you take
Hope your models break
Bet that beard is fake
I'll be watching you

CBS is great
Wouldn't change my fate
But we'll be watching you
We'll be watching you
 

Stump Speech

The Epicurean Dealmaker

Recent readers of these pages will be aware that I have been engaged in an ongoing dialogue of sorts with several market commentators concerning the vexed and contentious issue of banker pay, especially as it relates to the ongoing crisis in financial markets. While tempers may have flared, I do hope that we can quickly move beyond casting aspersions

ASPERSE, v.t. Maliciously to ascribe to another vicious actions which one has not had the temptation and opportunity to commit.

at each other and mutual backbiting

BACKBITE, v.t. To speak of a man as you find him when he can't find you.

about real or supposed injustices

INJUSTICE, n. A burden which of all those that we load upon others and carry ourselves is lightest in the hands and heaviest upon the back.

alleged by one and sundry to have been committed by our fellow participants in the financial economy. For the stakes are high for all of us, not just commercial and investment bankers, to prevent a more permanent and damaging disruption to the economy and the financial markets by precipitate and ill-conceived action in any one area, including that of compensation to investment banking employees and other financial middlemen.

While I fear it may be too late to keep this dispute out of the world of

POLITICS, n. A strife of interests masquerading as a contest of principles. The conduct of public affairs for private advantage.

and the interfering hands of that most fearful and meddlesome creature, the

POLITICIAN, n. An eel in the fundamental mud upon which the superstructure of organized society is reared. When we wriggles he mistakes the agitation of his tail for the trembling of the edifice. As compared with the statesman, he suffers the disadvantage of being alive.

I believe I echo the sentiments of many when I say I would prefer a thorough airing of the situation in public to the resolution of our various grievances through

LITIGATION, n. A machine which you go into as a pig and come out of as a sausage.

So, while I remain resolutely convinced that banker pay is far more symptomatic than causal for the bulk of the current problems under which we all suffer, I do wish to

APOLOGIZE, v.i. To lay the foundation for a future offence.

to my various interlocutors for any

INJURY, n. An offense next in degree of enormity to a slight.

I may have caused them with my intemperate language and scathing sarcasm.

After all, I believe a fine Hegelian conflict of thesis and antithesis to be the most effective way for all of us to discover the

TRUTH, n. An ingenious compound of desirability and appearance. Discovery of truth is the sole purpose of philosophy, which is the most ancient occupation of the human mind and has a fair prospect of existing with increasing activity to the end of time.

about this issue, and I also believe it will help us move past this valley of despond on to a bright and shining

FUTURE, n. That period of time in which our affairs prosper, our friends are true and our happiness is assured.
* * *

I thank you for your attention, Fellow Citizens, and I look forward to your vote in the coming primary election.

International Political Economy Zone Casino Capitalism

FAST WEALTH AND BITTER BREAD

The oil prices start to soar
While Real Estate has hit the floor,
The Stock Market is jittery,
The future prospects bitterly
Surveyed on Wall Street and Main Street,
As all alike know they must eat
Their bitter bread, their bitter bread,
Who let fast wealth get to their head.

So China props the dollar up,
But will not fill your beggar´s cup
When she determines not to prop you--
So will not common sense then stop you
From your spendthrift indulgences?
No priest nor prophet comes to bless
Your bitter bread, your bitter bread,
Who let fast wealth go to your head.

It was a fond, elusive dream,
Illusory as it would seem,
But, though superb ambitions went
Before, it was all fraudulent,
This hope, sans rolling up one´s sleeves
To profit--them delusion leaves
But bitter bread, such bitter bread,
Who let fast wealth fill all their head.

[Jan 26, 2008] Job Description – Rogue Trader

The following is an extract from “Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns & Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives”J (2006; Pearson Education) © 2006 Satyajit Das

Position Title

(Rogue) Trader. (The “rogue” term is generally not to be used explicitly especially with senior management, directors, shareholders and clients for fear of misunderstanding.)

Reporting Line

The position reports along “functional’ and “geographic” lines to the Head of Trading and Head of the Region. (Nobody, really. A multi-dimensional matrix structure is currently in operation so that everybody reports to several people allowing a total absence of accountability.)

Location

Optional. (Some candidates may have a preference for working in head office where total confusion and chaos reigns facilitating successful rogue trading. Other candidates may prefer a remote location where benign neglect and absence of supervision may provide rogue trading opportunities.)

Organisational Environment

A leading edge investment bank with a global brand, presence in key financial markets, superb product range and unparalleled client list.

(Our PR firm told us this.)

A global trading team trading in a wide variety of cash and synthetic instruments, including a number of “proprietary” structures.

(You can lose money pretty much any way you like. There are some trades that even we don’t understand but the models say we are making money).

Supported by a world class risk management team (they are readily identifiable by their guide dogs) and operational staff and systems (they have been specially chosen for their total ignorance.)

Excellent career prospects (We have sinecures for everybody who has failed to perform.)

Key Responsibilities

Trading with the bank’s capital to achieve targeted risk adjusted returns on capital under the bank’s unique Economic Capital Allocation system. (If you are half as smart as you think you are then you will be able to game the system from day 1. Everybody else has.)

Developing innovative trading strategies. (You need to be able to come up with hare brained trading schemes based on the relationship between the El Nino cycle and market prices.)

Closely managing trading positions. (You need to be able increase your bet when your position shows losses until you bankrupt the firm.)

Major Challenges

Develop proper models and valuation procedures (You need to ensure that all pricing models are impossible to understand and give the valuations that you want by simple unverifiable changes in model inputs.)

Risk management of positions (You will need to fudge all the Greek risk measures. We suggest you start to report risk data in an ancient Nubian dialect that is purely oral. You will ensure that your risk always appears miniscule irrespective of market conditions. People have a tendency to panic otherwise.)

Monitoring (You will need to be able to disguise breaches by not booking the trades or taking advantage of systems deficiencies.)

Control losses and volatility of earnings (You must disguise losses either by recording them as amounts owed to you (the Leeson gambit), undertaking off-market trades such as deep in-the-money options (the Rusnak variation) or incorrect valuations (Rogue Trading 101).)

You need to be able to take the trading function to a new plane. (You need to show larger losses than the last rogue trader the firm employed.)

Selection Criteria

Detailed knowledge of financial markets and trading techniques.

(You should wax lyrically about obscure markets (the Zambian Kwatcho and Islamic finance techniques) and complex mathematics (field theory; neural networks; fractals; Frank copula models). Everybody will think you are a genius or a fool but will be unsure of which.)

Detailed knowledge of derivatives, including exotic and non-standard structures. (Everybody knows that derivatives allow highly leveraged positions that are impossible to understand or value accurately.)
No minimum formal educational qualifications or direct previous experience in a similar role is necessary. (Nobody believes your CV. It is merely a statement of your aspirations. Nobody will believe you if you said that you had rogue trading experience.)

Ability to communicate and work closely with senior management (You will need to make sure that you generate enough “phantom” profits to make sure their bonus expectations are met.)

Ability to work closely with operational staff (You must bully them or cajole them into concealing limit breaches and losses.) 

Strong leadership qualities (You will claim all profits are the result of your perspicacious skills. All losses will either disappear or if found will be hedge losses offset against gains in other positions.)

Desirable Criteria

Preferred age – under 30 years. (Have you ever heard of an old rogue trader? There is an exception for Japanese rogue traders who are generally older.)

Strong personal qualities. (You will have “attitude”. A year round sun tan and a wisp of beard underneath your chin is good. You will treat everybody around you as idiots incapable of understanding the complex nature of your trading strategies.)

Highly motivated. (You will need to be able to hide losses and limit breaches. The Japanese rogue traders never took holidays.)

Remuneration

Negotiable including a strong performance linked component. (You don’t need to be paid as it is assumed that you will defalcate ample amounts.)

Social Responsibility Statement

We are proud to be an equal opportunity employer. (We do not discriminate on any basis. How else can you explain the calibre of Directors and Senior Management not to mention risk managers and auditors that we have?)

Note: The idea is based on a column published by Trevor Sykes (writing as Pierpoint) of the Australian Financial Review [see “Indispensable Guide For Rogue Traders” (30 January 2004) Australian Financial Review] However, the text is different.

[Jan 25, 2008] Jeff Matthews Is Not Making This Up The Great Private Equity Cash Robbery of 2007

Wednesday, August 08, 2007

The Shareholder Letter You Should, But Won’t, Be Reading Next Spring

Dear Shareholder:

Well, it seemed like a good idea at the time.

I am referring to your board’s decision to approve a massive share buyback and huge special dividend last summer, when the buzzwords going around Wall Street were “returning value to shareholders.”

Why we did it was this: a smart banker from Goldman Lehman Lynch & Sachs came in, all gussied up and looking sharp, and made a terrific PowerPoint presentation to the board with multi-colored slides that showed how paying a special $10 a share dividend, plus buying back a bunch of our stock at the 52-week high, would “return value to our shareholders.”

We should have thrown the fellow out the window, along with his PowerPoint slides, but what happened was, my fellow board members and I were so busy deleting emails from our Blackberries that we just didn’t notice the last slide showing (in very tiny numbers) the “Trump-style” debt we would be incurring to do so.

We also missed the footnote showing the fees that would go to Goldman Stanley Lynch & Sachs for the courtesy of their showing us how to wreck our balance sheet.

Those fees, I am embarrassed to say, amounted to more money than we made the quarter before we “returned value to shareholders.”

But the fact is, we’d been getting so much pressure over the last few years from the hedge fund fellows who own our stock for ten minutes tops, not to mention the so-called “analysts” on Wall Street (around here we call them "Barking Seals"), to do something with the cash...well, the truth is we just couldn’t stand answering our phones any more.

So, in order to finally start getting things done instead of spending all day explaining to these hedge fund fellows and the Barking Seals on Wall Street why we weren’t “returning value to shareholders,” we decided to do the big buyback and the big dividend.

And for a few weeks there, it was pretty nice.

The stock jumped, the phones stopped ringing, and the Barking Seals started congratulating us on the conference calls instead of asking us when we were going to get rid of our cash.

Unfortunately, not only did getting rid of our cash and taking on a huge debt load NOT “return value” to you, our shareholders, it actually crippled the company for years to come.

For starters, as you know, the aftermath of last summer’s sub-prime debt crisis is forcing perfectly fine companies to liquidate businesses at fire-sale prices…but we can’t take advantage of those prices, because we have no cash. And thanks to the debt we incurred “returning value to shareholders,” the banks won’t loan us another dime.

Secondly, as you also know, we’ve had to lay off hundreds of loyal, hard working employees to pay the interest expense and principal on all that debt, because unlike Donald Trump, we actually feel like we ought to repay our debts.

Furthermore, as you probably don’t know, we’ve also scaled back some interesting research projects that had great long-term potential for the company, but were deemed too expensive to continue in light of the fact that we have no cash.

Now, I’d feel a heck of a lot worse about all this if we were the only company suckered into buying our stock at a record high price and paying a big fat dividend on top of it.

But I’m happy to report there were others who also did the same stupid thing.

For example, Cracker Barrel, the restaurant chain that depends on people having enough money for gas to get to its stores along Interstates across America, spent 46 bucks a share for 5.4 million shares of its stock early last year to “return value to shareholders.”

Cracker Barrel’s stock now trades at $39.

And Scott’s Miracle-Gro, whose business is so seasonal it loses money two quarters out of four, put over a billion dollars of debt on its books with the kind of special dividend and share buyback we did.

Health Management Associates—a healthcare chain that can’t collect money from about a quarter of the patients it handles—paid shareholders ten bucks a share in a special dividend to “return value to shareholders” and then missed its very next earnings report because of all those unpaid bills and all that new interest expense it was paying.

Oh, and Dean Foods, a commodity dairy processor with 2% profit margins, returned all sorts of value to shareholders early last year—almost $2 billion worth—just before its business went to hell in a hand basket when raw milk prices soared.

So, you see, everybody was doing it.

And boy, do I wish we hadn’t.

Jeff Matthews
I Am Not Making This Up

Go to Las Vegas

A nice story relevant to most  401K investors

There's a guy who lives in Ohio. One morning, he hears a voice in his head. The voice says,
"Quit your job, sell your house, take all your money, and go to Las Vegas."

He ignores the voice.

Later in the day, he hears the voice again.
"Quit your job, sell your house, take all your money, and go to Las Vegas."

Again, he ignores the voice.

Soon he hears the voice every minute of the day.
"Quit your job, sell your house, take all your money, and go to Las Vegas."

He can't take it anymore. He believes the voice.
He quits his job, sells his house, takes all his money, and flies to Las Vegas.
As soon as he steps off the plane, the voice says, "Go to the roulette."

He goes to roulette table.

The voice says, "Put all your money on black"

He puts up his all money on black.

The game ends with red winning.

The voice says, "Fuck."

Greenspan's Client List Needs Someone Like Me by Caroline Baum

Jan. 18 | Bloomberg

Mr. Alan Greenspan Greenspan Associates
1133 Connecticut Avenue NW Washington, DC 20500

Dear Mr. Greenspan:

I was somewhat surprised to read that you had been hired as an adviser to John Paulson, the hedge fund manager who made a killing last year betting against the mess you made. The irony is really rich: Paying someone whose policy mistakes and missteps were the source of your success! I'm sure it will be a productive working relationship for everyone involved.

What got my wheels turning, though, was re-reading your comments about your ``Rule of One,'' as I call it. You have said that you would consult with only one client in each industry.

So far, your roster includes one bank (Deutsche Bank AG), one bond-fund manager (Pimco), and now one hedge fund. I'm sure there's some overlap in what these firms do, but my intent here isn't to quibble about details.

If I understand you correctly -- you speak much more clearly than you did when you were Fed chairman, now that you're getting paid a bundle per word -- you still have an opening for a media company. So I'd like to propose what I think could be a mutually beneficial relationship between you and, yes, me.

The benefits to you should be immediately apparent.

1. Buying Access

With each announcement of your exclusive consulting relationship with a client, the chatter is that these firms are buying ``access'': access to your institutional knowledge of the Fed; access to your Rolodex; access to any inside information you might get from policy makers in the U.S. and overseas.

The way I see it, it wouldn't be a bad idea for you to buy access -- from me. Lots of politicians see my column; maybe even a few who are running for president. I might be able to put in a good word for you that would give you a shot at Treasury secretary, an opportunity lost when Jimmy Carter defeated Jerry Ford in 1976.

Running the mint isn't nearly as glamorous as controlling the printing press, but at least it keeps you in the public eye (not that you ever left it).

2. Keep Your Friends Close, And Your Enemies Closer

Let's face it: No one has been a bigger thorn in your side than yours truly. I started my journalism career a few months before you landed at the Fed, and we've been joined at the hip ever since.

If I were on your payroll, you can be pretty sure I'd be talking you up rather than putting you down. I mean, it wasn't until Bill Gross hired you that he stopped trashing you. And you didn't even have to pay him to change his tune!

If you put me on retainer, you'll be surprised how easily I can be persuaded to see economic history in a different light.

Remember how you denied there could be a housing bubble, only belatedly acknowledging some ``froth'' in certain local markets? I've already forgotten you said that, along with your lament on how homeowners would have done better with adjustable- rate mortgages.

Or how about that ridiculously low federal funds rate that overstayed its usefulness for years, not months? I think I could make an argument, based on a ``risk-management'' approach, that it was necessary to ward off deflation.

In other words, Mr. Greenspan, money talks -- or in this case, money would encourage me to talk less, if you know what I mean.

3. Playing Cyrano to Your Christian

Just as Christian de Neuvillette used Cyrano de Bergerac's words to woo Roxane, you, sir, could use a bit more dash when it comes to preserving or, at this point, resuscitating your legacy.

No one ever accused me of being dull or uninspired. And I've always had a hankering to play Cyrano, sucker that I am for that swashbuckling, romantic stuff.

``I draw my sword and raise it high.'' ``Let me choose my rhymes.'' ``Then, as I end the refrain, thrust home!'' Oh, it will be grand. Together we can win their hearts!

4. A Better Crystal Ball

This may be a sore subject with you, but your forecasting acumen hasn't been the best. Your visibility on bubbles has been close to zero. You were late to see recession in both 1990 and 2001. Your rationalizations for your forecasts have been pretty lame as well.

Money manager Bill Fleckenstein sets your record straight in a just-published book, which isn't likely to be a coffee-table fixture in your household.

If you saddle up with me, you can get rid of all those arcane manufacturing ratios and obscure indicators you used to pull out of a hat to justify a policy action. You can do better watching two rates -- the overnight rate that the Fed sets and the long-term rate determined by the market -- than you can with the 18,500 indicators you reportedly track in the bathtub.

I'd like to thank you in advance for considering my offer. I'm ready to proceed with negotiations as soon as I hear back from you.

Very truly yours,

Caroline A. Baum

iTulip.com - The Contrary Market View

Ladies whose husbands are undone by Bubbles,
Meet at a Tavern to Lament their Troubles,
At length they all agree upon Petition,
To Pray the State to Mend their Bad Condition

The Epicurean Dealmaker Eat the Bankers

You know, Dear Readers, having been an investment banker for lo these many moons, I long ago abandoned whatever starry-eyed dreams I might have entertained in my callow youth of obtaining a measure of social respectability for the stature and gravitas of my chosen profession (accompanied, of course, by a comfortable pile of shiny simoleons). Investment bankers, in modern capitalist society, seem to fall into that social class of people which everyone else despises vociferously as greedy, money-grubbing whores, unprincipled shills and hucksters who are only marginally less despicable than personal injury lawyers or Flavor Flav. Of course, this universally fashionable scorn is never in evidence when the citizen in question is desperately trying to get into Harvard Business School so he or she can become an investment banker, wheedling them to donate to his or her favorite charity, attempting to sell them an overpriced condominium in a brand new building stuffed to the gills with other investment bankers, or persuading them to marry their comely daughter (or him- or herself).

And yet—at the risk of incurring the opprobrium of the chattering classes by tooting my own horn—I will assert that there are indeed a number of admirable traits and characteristics which can be fairly laid at the gilded doorstep of Homo investmentbankicus. While it is true that many are venal, corrupt, and/or have the interpersonal skills of Mr. Hyde on a bender, it is also true that quite a few are charming, politic, and even genuinely nice people. I am sure I will strain your credulity somewhat less by also asserting that, as a group, investment bankers tend to be better-educated, more worldly, and harder working than the average capitalist wage slave. While they are neither necessary nor sufficient for a successful career in investment banking, native intelligence, grit, and ambition are character traits which are liberally sprinkled throughout the cohorts of Wall Street. And, the last time I checked, these traits tend to be the same ones which most Americans claim to admire as valid tickets to the good life.

Certainly, there is very little about the monetary rewards accruing to the successful investment banker which is due to nepotism, cronyism, or inherited wealth or position. (The pre-1973 days when investment banking was an undemanding profession populated by the dull and unambitious sons of wealthy WASPs is long gone.) If you can't cut it on your own pluck, skills, and drive, you have no place in this industry. There are no Rigas, Murdoch, or—dare I say it?—Bush or Clinton dynasties in investment banking: it's too bloody hard. Scratch your average investment banker's Kiton suit, and you will usually find a genuinely self-made man or woman underneath.

So what's not to like? Well, the common complaint is that we make too much money, and we add little value to the economy or society.

But I'd be careful, if I were you, about adopting such an opinion without thinking it through. After all, how much "value" does your little profession add to the common weal? By whose calculation? And since when has capitalism paid laborers for the value they contribute to the general good anyway? My economics professors taught me that wage rates are set by market forces, which follow their own internal logic almost wholly divorced from such concepts as social good, intrinsic value, or even the difficulty of the work in question. If that were not true, then surely the soldiers under fire in Iraq and Afghanistan would be making a hell of a lot more money than your (or my) sorry little ass.

And like it or not, investment bankers do perform a function which is inseparable from the proper functioning of a capitalist economy. At its most basic, investment bankers are middlemen: we grease the wheels of commerce, of investment, of capital formation and allocation, and of wealth creation. Strictly speaking, investment bankers perform none of those actions themselves. When we do, our role blurs, and we become investors, capitalists, or hedge