“I am saddened that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone
knows: the Iraq war is largely about oil”
Alan Greenspan
War-for-oil, or more precisely, power projection to preserve the petrodollar,
is realpolitik.
Per capita energy usage in the United States is the highest among all nations of the world. The USA
consumes 25% of would energy resources while having only 5% of the population. Approximately half of
the energy used in the US is electrical energy generated by coal-fired power plants. The other
part is oil that is mainly imported.
Securing uninterruptable supply of oil became the key task of the USA foreign policy since president
Carter. The second important goal is maintaining dollar as the world primary reserve currency,
and, especially, the main currency you can buy oil with. That includes maintaining the stability
of client Arab regimes, such as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
Oil Wars
Recently the USA waged several "oil wars" (Iraq war, Libya war, Syria war, attempt of "color
revolution" in Russia) with the most brutal being the Iraq war. The two main messages from the war
in Iraq are:
If you repeat a boldfaced lie frequently enough, it will someday become accepted truth.
The bolder is the lie, the better. This is the same idea that was first revealed to the world by
doctor Goebbels.
Saving face is much more important than admitting a mistake, no matter how destructive the outcome.
Manipulating the facts became the norm for the Bush administration, which invaded Iraq on what we
know now (and the administration almost certainly knew then) were utterly false pretenses. Thanks to
these lies, Americans, including our soldiers and civilians serving in Iraq, were killed or injured.
Links to the 9/11 attacks and the claim that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction, two of the ever-evolving
reasons for getting into the war were blatantly false from the very beginning. They were fabricated
to achieve specific goals. Engaging in mass deception in order to justify official policy both
degrades the society, so the war has had a detrimental effect on the USA, as a society. It just has
shown that elites now are audacious enough to throw out even attempt to present their actions as legitimate
of serving national goals. Of course, by far, it is ordinary Iraqis who have suffered the most.
We know now beyond any doubt that Iraq was not involved in 9/11 and had no weapons of mass destruction.
But as Paul Pillar, a former senior CIA analyst with the Iraqi portfolio, wrote on March 14,
“Intelligence did not drive the decision to invade Iraq – not by a long shot, despite the
aggressive use by the Bush administration of cherry-picked fragments of intelligence reporting in
its public sales campaign for the war.”
Indeed, this was a war for oil from the very beginning, and any little lie would have worked.
It is very fortuitous for all those politicians, policy makers, and bureaucrats with Iraqi blood
on their hands — Republicans and Democrats both — that the only courtroom they’ve been shuffled into
is the court of public opinion, where most received light sentences. Bush II actually was reelected
for the second term.
Indeed, the Iraq war boosters are still a fixture on our television screens.
Dan Senor,
who served as a spokesman for the U.S occupation authorities and willfully misrepresented events
on the ground during that time, is a regular commentator on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” a veritable roundtable
of Washington establishment punditry.
Kenneth Pollack, a longtime Brookings fellow and CIA analyst who wrote the 2002 book The
Threatening Storm: The Case for Invading Iraq (which is barely mentioned today on the Brookings
website), is a familiar face on the commentary circuit and among think tank salons.
Ex-Generals David Petraeus and Stanley McChrystal, who each left their most recent posts in disgrace,
are raking in thousands of dollars for speeches, lectures, and consulting work.
Sure, there are pundits and reporters who admit they wrongly supported the war, but their regrets
are usually reserved for their blind faith in the war planners and their own lack of inquisitiveness.
For example, Washington Post columnist David Ignatius confessed in a March 21 column that Iraq
was one of “the biggest strategic errors in Modern American history.” But the thrust of his own
mea culpa was that he did not write enough “on the overriding question of whether the war made
sense,” which would have allowed him to see that the U.S was not strong enough nor flexible enough to
succeed.
Rarely do pundits apologize for the horrendous Iraqi losses inflicted by the war: more than a million
deaths and millions more wounded with varying lifelong disabilities, including thousands of tortured
prisoners, with an estimated
16,000 of them still unaccounted for. Twenty-eight percent of Iraqi children suffer from post-traumatic
stress disorder, and 2.8 million people
are still internally displaced or living as
refugees outside the country.
Add to that the complete destruction of the Iraqi infrastructure outside oil sector, as well as its
transportation, education, and medical institutions. Don’t forget the countless people suffering from
trauma and depression, sectarian war with daily killings, terrifying birth defects from toxic pollution,
and a brain drain that has left the country illiterate.
Not since the American Civil War has the U.S citizenry had to endure such horrors. Yet discussion
of these repercussions is noticeably absent as we still struggle to understand the scope of the Iraq
war and what all of its lies have wrought.
Let us start with a sincere apology to the Iraqi people for the crimes the U.S. government has committed.
A long-range plan for restitution is a second step. Empires decline due to moral decay from within.
Ten years after the invasion of Iraq, our nation is looking at the moral abyss. If lies have delivered
us to this place, then only the truth will begin our journey back.
Because it was marked "confidential" on each page, the oil industry stooge couldn't believe the
US State Department had given me a complete copy of their secret plans for the oil fields of Iraq.
Actually, the State Department had done no such thing. But my line of bullshit had been so well-practiced
and the set-up on my mark had so thoroughly established my fake identity, that I almost began to
believe my own lies.
I closed in. I said I wanted to make sure she and I were working from the same State Department
draft. Could she tell me the official name, date and number of pages? She did.
Bingo! I'd just beaten the Military-Petroleum Complex in a lying contest, so I had a right to
be chuffed.
After phoning numbers from California to Kazakhstan to trick my mark, my next calls were to the
State Department and Pentagon. Now that I had the specs on the scheme for Iraq's oil – that State
and Defense Department swore, in writing, did not exist – I told them I'd appreciate their handing
over a copy (no expurgations, please) or there would be a very embarrassing story on BBC Newsnight.
Within days, our chief of investigations, Ms Badpenny, delivered to my shack in the woods outside
New York a 323-page, three-volume programme for Iraq's oil crafted by George Bush's State Department
and petroleum insiders meeting secretly in Houston, Texas.
I cracked open the pile of paper – and I was blown away.
Like most lefty journalists, I assumed that George Bush and Tony Blair invaded Iraq to buy up
its oil fields, cheap and at gun-point, and cart off the oil. We thought we knew the neo-cons true
casus belli: Blood for oil.
But the truth in the Options for Iraqi Oil Industry was worse than "Blood for Oil". Much, much
worse.
The key was in the flow chart on page 15, Iraq Oil Regime Timeline & Scenario Analysis:
"...A single state-owned company ...enhances a government's relationship with OPEC."
Gas wars
EuroMaidan can be considered to be a proxy "gas war" when the USA hides behind Ukraine far right
to fight Russia and EU. See
Well, there is a plan BRICS - or so the BRICS nations would like to think, at least. And when
the BRICS do act in this spirit on the global stage, they quickly conjure up a curious mix of fear,
hysteria, and pugnaciousness in the Washington establishment.
Take Christopher Hill as an example. The former assistant secretary of state for East Asia and
US ambassador to Iraq is now an advisor with the Albright Stonebridge Group, a consulting firm deeply
connected to the White House and the State Department. When Russia was down and out, Hill used to
dream of a hegemonic American "new world order". Now that the ungrateful Russians have spurned what
"the West has been offering" - that is, "special status with NATO, a privileged relationship with
the European Union, and partnership in international diplomatic endeavors" - they are, in his view,
busy trying to revive the Soviet empire. Translation: if you're not our vassals, you're against
us. Welcome to Cold War 2.0.
The Pentagon has its own version of this directed not so much at Russia as at China, which, its
think tank on future warfare claims, is already at war with Washington in a number of ways. So if
it's not apocalypse now, it's Armageddon tomorrow. And it goes without saying that whatever's going
wrong, as the Obama administration very publicly "pivots" to Asia and the American media fills with
talk about a revival of Cold War-era "containment policy" in the Pacific, it's all China's fault.
Embedded in the mad dash toward Cold War 2.0 are some ludicrous facts-on-the-ground: the US government,
with $17.5 trillion in national debt and counting, is contemplating a financial showdown with
Russia, the largest global energy producer and a major nuclear power, just as it's also promoting
an economically unsustainable military encirclement of its largest creditor, China.
Russia runs a sizeable trade surplus. Humongous Chinese banks will have no trouble helping Russian
banks out if Western funds dry up. In terms of inter-BRICS cooperation, few projects beat a $30 billion
oil pipeline in the planning stages that will stretch from Russia to India via Northwest China.
Chinese companies are already eagerly discussing the possibility of taking part in the creation
of a transport corridor from Russia into Crimea, as well as an airport, shipyard, and liquid natural
gas terminal there. And there's another "thermonuclear" gambit in the making: the birth of a
natural gas equivalent to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries that would include
Russia, Iran, and reportedly disgruntled US ally Qatar.
The (unstated) BRICS long-term plan involves the creation of an alternative economic system featuring
a basket of gold-backed currencies that would bypass the present America-centric global financial
system. (No wonder Russia and China are amassing as much gold as they can.) The euro - a sound currency
backed by large liquid bond markets and huge gold reserves - would be welcomed in as well.
It's no secret in Hong Kong that the Bank of China has been using a parallel SWIFT network to
conduct every kind of trade with Tehran, which is under a heavy US sanctions regime. With Washington
wielding Visa and MasterCard as weapons in a growing Cold War-style economic campaign against Russia,
Moscow is about to implement an alternative payment and credit card system not controlled by Western
finance.
An even easier route would be to adopt the Chinese Union Pay system, whose operations have already
overtaken American Express in global volume.
Why Energy is Central to the Economy
BC, January 22, 2015 at 6:44 pm
Economics is politics. Politics is war by other means. War is the business of empire (hegemony).
War is good business for imperialists.
Therefore, economics is the intellectual and political rationalization for the business objectives
of imperial expansionism, expropriation, and co-optation of client-states’ elites by means of state
violence when necessary, which is more often than not when resources become increasingly scarce and
the hegemonic frontiers of expansionism are threatened.
Yet, most Americans do not yet perceive the US as an empire (successor to the British Empire),
not surprisingly, which would necessarily require the inference that empires peak, decline, and eventually
collapse, and we have been in relative decline since the 1970s-80s, which most of the working-class
bottom 90% would have to concede were they honest with themselves and their fellows. And, no, McConnell,
Romney, Rubio, Paul, et al., care not about the working-class bottom 90% but themselves and those
deep-pocketed Republicans who cut the largest campaign finance checks.
But one suspects that the 80-90% of the population who were slaves during the Greek city-state
dominance and later Roman Empire neither perceived themselves living in the context of imperial decline
and incipient collapse, as their daily life experience was preoccupied with acquiescing to their
imperial masters’ demands and the imperative to survive and thereafter subsist within their circumstances,
if they/we’re luck . . ., or not.
Same as it ever was . . .
Coilin MacLochlainn, January 22, 2015 at 8:19 pm
Malthus was not wrong, he was right. The reason for that is, the Earth is finite and has limited
resources. The human population has reached 7 billion. If it continues to grow, or even if it doesn’t,
it will exceed the ability of the Earth’s remaining land base to support us.
In fact, it already has. Several of the Earth’s planetary limits have already been exceeded and
we are cannibalising what remains of the Earth’s surviving natural resources just to keep going.
What I mean is, we are using up the very resources that we rely on as a species to survive into the
future. And at the same time, we are making it impossible for much of the rest of life on Earth to
survive, which is why so many species are going extinct now and most will be wiped out before we
are done.
For those of us living in the developed world, it is hard to picture this, because we are living
off the exploitation of resources and labour in less well off countries.
There are also glaring examples of excessive exploitation in the developed world. For example,
in California, which leads the world in the production of almonds, walnuts and pistachio nuts, there
is not enough surface water available to supply the industry and so nut farmers are irrigating their
crops using underground water. With the ongoing drought in California, the underground aquifer is
not being recharged, so it won’t be long before the nut farmers run out of water and the industry
goes bust. It will go bust and it will also leave the aquifer dry, with no possibility of refilling
with water while the drought lasts, which could be for years or forever.
Jan Steinman, January 22, 2015 at 6:26 pm
“Capital is embodied energy.”
Are you talking about physical capital, such as factories, machines, and such?
A lot of very smart people seem to think “capital” is little bits of coloured paper, or even invisible
magnetic bits on a spinning disk. But I think that’s where the second half of your essay (debt) comes
into play.
It would be nice to have some simple term-of-art to distinguish between the two forms of “capital.”
I agree that physical plant is capital. It may even be that, pre-Bretton Woods, money was an adequate
symbol for capital. But it seems to me that there is way more money around than there is physical
capital these days.
garand555, January 21, 2015 at 5:24 pm
Economics is a pseudo-science, at least the way it is practiced.
... ... ...
InAlaska, January 21, 2015 at 7:58 pm
Economists endorsed the idea of globalism after it became apparent that without it, national economies
could no longer grow. Globalization is going to kill us because it removes from local control the
basic production of necessities. Speaking of economics, here is part of a post on The Automatic Earth
from yesterday concerning the Davos crowd and the World Economic Forum:
“When it comes to basic necessities, to food, water and shelter, we shouldn’t strive to compete
with other economies. That is not good for us, or for our peers in those other economies; it’s good
only for those who skim off the top. The larger and more globalized the top, the more there is to
skim off. All the ‘reform’ is geared towards making our economies ever more dependent on the global
economy. And that is not in our best interest.
It’s not all just even about money, it’s about our security, and independence. Everybody likes
the idea of being independent, but at the same time few realize that globalization is the exact opposite
of independence. Global trade is fine, as long as it’s limited to things we don’t need to survive,
but it’s not fine if and when it takes away the ability of a community or a society to provide for
itself.
Protectionism has acquired a really bad reputation, as if it’s inherently evil to try and protect
your community from being gutted by economic ideas and systems it has no defense against, or to make
sure it can generate and provide for its own basics at all times. But that’s just propaganda too.
If our societies are not designed and constructed to provide for themselves, they’ll end up with
no choice but to go to war with each other. Along the same lines, if our societies don’t have strict
laws in place that guarantee we can’t and won’t destroy the natural resources of the land we live
on comes with, we’ll also end up going to war with each other.
We’re not going to solve the Gordian knot of the entire global economy and all the hubris and
propaganda the present leading politicians, businessmen and ‘reporters’ bring to the table. And we
probably shouldn’t want to. Our brains did not develop to do things on a global scale. The clowns
will blow themselves up sooner or later. We should focus on what we can do, meanwhile, in our immediate
surroundings.
And it’s pretty easy from there, really. The economic problems we have are mostly artificial.
They have been induced by the broken economic model the Davos crowd, the central bankers and you
know who else would have us believe is the one and only, and that they are busy fixing for our sake
and greater glory. But they care only about their own glory.”
Gail Tverberg, January 22, 2015 at 8:38 pm
On the other hand, without the growth that was obtained from globalization, the financial system
would have collapsed earlier. So in some sense, we are better off, even if it is not sustainable.
The US started hollowing out its manufacturing not too long after the oil problems of the 1970s.
Japan came first in globalization, before the other Eastern countries.
InAlaska, January 21, 2015 at 7:24 pm
Liquid Assets,
Economists run the Federal Reserve Bank and all the central banks in the world.
How has their “straight thinking” worked out? Has the world ever been in such a fiscal mess before?
How have all of those over-educated PhDs in Economics done better than an Actuary could do?
Economics is the dismal “science” in part because it is predicated on the assumption that their
can be infinite inputs into the system. Before you insult Gail and suggest she get a “real education,”
consider that this whole edifice of “Economics” and endless growth is based on and within a finite
world.
escravaisaurabr, January 22, 2015 at 7:33 am
InAlaska,
Two perceptive posts you wrote. Thank you.
I would like to add this post. I think most of you will appreciate. I sure love this post….
By falak pema
Economics is a means to achieve an end, like language.
So linguists are capable of understanding the logic of communication for DECISION MAKING; whether
it be in words and intellectual concepts or in numbers/statistics and algorithms.
The issue here is that perfect markets like perfect speech do not exist for themselves in society,
except for the “initiated”, but have a different function as a VEHICLE for body politic; which defines
the AIMS and uses the means, all the means : of language as of images and of statistics and mathematical
constructs.
So the thesis of the Mises/Hayek type Shamans that Economia is the “be-all” of society is just
wrong. No more than the works of Shakespeare or Hugo, or of Picasso etc.
They do not define politics and power in society. They may influence it but they don’t define
it’s objectives.
Linguists like economists can add substance to a political construct that defines the power play
in civilization. And in that respect markets are just a means and their perfection as important as
a perfect face on the screen.
All imagery or conceptual work in life is virtual.
It becomes real when it faces the real world of power and its continual balancing act; facts and
irreversible acts that define our future as they have our past.
Chomsky is more relevant today to society than Mises.
The first analyses real political acts and consequences the other confines himself to theoretical
pontification about the real economy looked at through the lens which keeps referring to the mantra
of perfect markets.
Not saying markets are not important just saying they are not ALL important.
For the Mises theory to become reality we would have to live in a perfect “anarchy” state without
government. The last time they wanted the state to “shrivel away” it was called the “ultimate step
of communism” and it parented Stalinism. So…you have to know what you wish for in the REAL world.
History says you are wrong. You keep harping about a system that has gone off the cliff twice
because of market forces being spiraled into Vesuvian eruption under irrational exuberance and greed
and thanks to lack of Government regulation : in 1929 and 2008.
You are into DEEP denial of historical FACTS.
The historical thread shows us neo-feudal oligarchs are just as destructive of wealth creation
as are statist hegemonists.
The only realistic solution is to balance state power and private oligarchy power and make sure
NEITHER is in dominant position by having transparent control of public and private spending and
by ensuring due diligence and SANCTIONS.
Today we have a Mussolinian economy of crony collusion between statists and oligarchs. We
have the worst of both worlds.
We need good state governance and non monopolistic private sector innovative investment, compatible
with “general good”, that does not run us off the cliff in mad speculation nor poison the planet.
The GDP should be run on an equitable basis between both power structures.
Whether this divide is 30/70 or 50/50 between private and public and how its used and how its
controlled and monitored is the role of the Republic. And it should be debated and then voted and
then executed in a legal framework which is NOT CORRUPT.
"... The unplanned shutdown takes out another 1 million barrels a day of heavy oil from the market, Alex Schindelar, executive editor of content & strategy at Energy Intelligence Group tweeted Thursday, adding that the heavy crude oil market was already tight because of the OPEC output cuts and U.S. sanctions on both Iran and Venezuela. ..."
Saudi Aramco halts oil output at the world's largest offshore oilfield: report
Saudi Aramco halted oil output this week at Safaniyah, the world's largest offshore
oilfield, Energy Intelligence reported Thursday, citing sources familiar with the matter,
according to a tweet from Amena Bakr, senior correspondent at the news and research service
provider. Further information was only available through subscription-based Energy
Intelligence.
The potential impact on oil prices depends on how long output at the oilfield is down,
said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group.
"The thinking is that the field produces heavy crude, and the world is short of that [type
of] oil."
The unplanned shutdown takes out another 1 million barrels a day of heavy oil from the
market, Alex Schindelar, executive editor of content & strategy at Energy Intelligence
Group tweeted Thursday, adding that the heavy crude oil market was already tight because of
the OPEC output cuts and U.S. sanctions on both Iran and Venezuela.
In electronic trading, March WTI oil CLH9, +1.06% was at $54.51 a barrel, after settling
at $54.41 on the New York mercantile Exchange.
Okay, you will have to read the article to see how Robert arrived at his conclusion. But
his conclusion is:
So, I have no good reason to doubt Saudi Arabia's official numbers. They probably do
have 270 billion barrels of proved oil reserves.
I find his logic horribly flawed. Robert compares Saudi's growing reserve estimates with
those of the USA.
First, the US Securities and Exchange Commission have the strictest oil reporting laws in
the world, or did have in 1982. Also, better technology has greatly improved reserve
estimates. And third, the advent of shale oil has dramatically added to US reserve
estimates.
Saudi has no laws that govern their reserve reporting estimates.
From Wikipedia, US Oil Reserves: Proven oil reserves in the United States were 36.4
billion barrels (5.79×109 m3) of crude oil as of the end of 2014, excluding the
Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The 2014 reserves represent the largest US proven reserves since
1972, and a 90% increase in proved reserves since 2008.
Robert says US reserves are 50 billion barrels. I don't know where he gets that number but
it really doesn't matter. Oil production, along with reserve estimates, are growing in the US
for one reason and one reason only, the advent of shale oil. Reserve estimates before 2008
were based on conventional oil. Onshore conventional oil production in the USA is in steep
decline.
Robert Rapier is brillant oil man, but a brilliant downstream oil man. Refineries are his
forte. He should know better than the shit he produced in that article.
100 percent of Saudi Arabia's reserves are based on conventional oil. Their true reserves
are very likely somewhere in the neighborhood of 70 billion barrels.
DUBAI/LONDON (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, cut its crude output in
January by about 400,000 barrels per day (bpd), two OPEC sources said, as the kingdom follows
through on its pledge to reduce production to prevent a supply glut.
Riyadh told OPEC that the kingdom pumped 10.24 million bpd in January, the sources said.
That's down from 10.643 million bpd in December, representing a cut that was 70,000 bpd deeper
than targeted under the OPEC-led pact to balance the market and support prices.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other non-OPEC producers -
an alliance known as OPEC+ - agreed in December to reduce supply by 1.2 million bpd from Jan.
1.
The agreement stipulated that Saudi Arabia should cut output to 10.311 million bpd, but
energy minister Khalid al-Falih has said it will exceed the required reduction to demonstrate
its commitment.
So Trump imposed sanction on the USA too. Of he hopes that Strategic petroleum reserve will
compensate for shortages... If Venezuela color revolution develops into Libya scenario, which
they could oil output can be suppressed for years to come. In other words Trump really has
chances to became Republican Obama.
Moreover, not only are the effects of the sanctions more far-reaching, but also more
immediate than first thought. At first, the U.S. seemed to exempt shipments that were underway,
outlining a sort of phased approach that would allow a handful of American refiners to
gradually unwind their oil purchase from Venezuela. The phased approach, which was supposed to
be extended into April, would help "to minimize any immediate disruptions," U.S. Secretary of
Treasury Steven Mnuchin said in late January.
But that now does not appear to be what is unfolding. PDVSA has demanded upfront payment,
likely because it fears not being paid at all or having the revenues steered to the opposition.
Indeed, the U.S. effort to steer PDVSA and its revenues into the hands of the U.S.-backed
opposition leader Juan Gauidó appears to be a decisive turning point.
Oil tankers linked to Chevron, Lukoil and Respsol are delayed, redirected or sitting
offshore because of lack of payment. The WSJ says that several of those tankers had recently
sent oil to Corpus Christi, Texas, but are now anchored off the coast of Maracaibo sitting
idle. "This is an absolute disaster," Luis Hernández, a Venezuelan oil union leader,
told the WSJ. "There's almost no way to move the oil."
Unable to sell any oil, Maduro's regime could quickly run out of cash. The result could be a
humanitarian catastrophe, a merciless and destructive objective that the Trump administration
seems to have in mind. The U.S. government is essentially betting that by driving the country
into the ground, the military and the people will turn on Maduro. It could yet turn out that
way, but it could also deepen the misery and exact an unspeakable toll on the Venezuelan
population, the very people the Trump administration says it is trying to help.
In the meantime, oil exports are likely heading into a freefall. The WSJ says that labor
problems, including "mass defections of workers" are accelerating declines. PDVSA could soon
run out of refined fuel.
Officials with knowledge of the situation told the WSJ that Venezuela's oil production has
likely already fallen well below 1 million barrels per day (mb/d), down more than 10 percent
– at least – from December levels.
Wood Mackenzie estimates that production
probably stands a little bit higher at about 1.1 mb/d, but that it could soon fall to 900,000
bpd.
... ... ...
That would push up oil prices significantly. But the U.S. government has blown past the
point of no return, leaving it with no other options except to escalate. That means that
Venezuela is set to lose a lot more oil than analysts thought only two weeks ago .
Will loss of Vezuellian oil exports to the USA be compensated from the USA strategic
reserve? Who will compensate this oil? Canada ? Or Trump administration decoded that temporary rise of oil prices is OK in
view of more strategic goal ?
Notable quotes:
"... As for Venezuela's over-reliance on oil exports to support its economy, this is the result of past government policies before Chavez came to power. The US treated Venezuela as a petrol station and pro-US governments in the country turned it into a petrol station. ..."
Bart Hansen@20 - Oil production costs are complex, secret and mostly lies. With that caveat,
Venezuela was thought to have about $10 - $15 production costs on average. That includes
their light and medium crude, and zero investment in repair of their distribution networks.
Well over half of Venezuela's reserves are Orinco extra-heavy, sour crude. Essentially tar
sands, but buried 500m - 1500m deep that require solvent or steam extraction. So (guess)
maybe $30-range/bbl for production. Those tar sand oils produced are so heavy that they need
pre-processing and dilution before they can be refined or exported. Naphtha or other refined
products are used as dilutent and cost maybe $55/bbl today, but were around $75/bbl last
October.
U.S. refineries were pretty much the only ones paying cash for their 500,000 b/d of
Venezuelan crude. Trump's sanctions not only ban those imports, but also ban the 120,000 b/d
of naphtha and other dilutents we sold them.
Interesting to note that part of Trump's beat-down of the Venezuela little people is a ban
on the 120,000 b/d of dilutent last week. That will completely shut down their exports. They
could find another source of naphtha, but that source will be looking for $6.6 million a day
hard cash for it.
Maduro needs to sell Venezuela's gold to buy naphtha to export oil for ANY revenue. The
$2.5 billion the Bank of England can't find and won't deliver is meant to hasten the food
riots and CIA-orchestrated coup. But Mercy Corps is setting up concentration camps on the
Colombian border and we're delivering food aid, so the U.S. is really the hero, here. God
bless America! Obey, or die.
Red Ryder @ 30: Venezuela's economy is as much ruined by US economic sanctions against the
country and (at US behest) Saudi Arabia's flooding of the global oil market that sent oil
prices down in order to crash the economies of other countries like Iran and Russia that were
presumed to be dependent on oil exports, as by mismanagement or poor leadership on Chavez or
Maduro's part.
On top of that, major food importers and producers (several of which are owned by
companies or individuals hostile to Chavez and Maduro) have been withholding food from
supermarkets to manipulate prices and goad the public into demonstrating against the
government.
As for Venezuela's over-reliance on oil exports to support its economy, this is the
result of past government policies before Chavez came to power. The US treated Venezuela as a
petrol station and pro-US governments in the country turned it into a petrol
station.
Chavez did try to encourage local food production and carried out some land redistribution
to achieve this. But his efforts did not succeed because importing food was cheaper than
producing it locally and farm-workers apparently preferred jobs in the oil industry that paid
better and were more secure.
I do not know how the collectives were organised, whether they had some independent
decision-making abilities or not, or whether they were organised from top down rather than
bottom up, so I can't say whether their organisational structures and the internal culture
those encouraged worked against them.
Feb 2, 2019 The REAL Reason The U.S. Wants Regime Change in Venezuela. The U.S. and its
allies have decided to throw their weight behind yet another coup attempt in Venezuela. As
usual, they claim that their objectives are democracy and freedom. Nothing could be farther
from the truth.
Feb 3, 2019 Venezuela's Oil Enough for World's 30 Year Energy Needs
The long bankrupt fiat financial system is pushing the Deep State to target Venezuela for
the latter's natural resources that dwarfs that of its satellite province Saudi Arabia.
How come Poland's at 6% & Lithuania is at 29%? Don't they both import American LNG?
And how come Estonia is at 3%? Sounds like the Estonians import Russian gas. Bulgaria's at
37%. Now what were the assurances John McCain gave Sofia regarding alternative gas options to
Southstream? Please spell them out for me again, I'm pretty slow, you know!
What is so ridiculously ClusterFrack-Failed about this, is that BGR nixed a CNG Pipeline
Deal with RUS under pressure from the EU_EXECUTIVES.
Instead of Jobs and Transit Fee Income, BGR will have to stand in line and pay more for
CNG since TRK picked up the Pipeline. The Southeastern EUROZONE are STILL going to Import
that same RUS_CNG.
The project created controversy due to non-compliance with European Union competition and energy
legislation, in particular the Third Energy Package , which
stipulates the separation of companies' generation and sale operations from their
transmission networks.
It was seen as rival to the Nabucco pipeline project. Construction
of the Russian onshore facilities for the pipeline started in December 2012. The project
was cancelled by Russia in December 2014 following obstacles from Bulgaria and the EU, the
2014 Crimean
crisis , and the imposition of European sanctions on Russia. The project has been
replaced by proposals of Turkish Stream and Tesla pipeline .
"... US need for heavy oil is also due to declines in conventional oil production. Fracking "oil" ( high in condensates) has been used to mask the peak (real) oil declines and also has a lower energy content/barrel and must be blended with heavy oil for the refineries to process it. Thus, "Prices of heavier U.S. grades like Mars Sour, an offshore medium U.S. crude, and Heavy Louisiana Sweet crude have risen as buyers scramble for supply". ..."
"... Mars currently trades at a premium to U.S. crude at $58.19 vs $53.69 for West Texas Intermediate (WTI)". Currently, the US also imports 500,000 barrels of Venezuelan crude a day to meet refinery blending requirements. ..."
"... All other shale fracking regions than the Permian have peaked or are in decline as shown by http://aheadoftheherd.com/Newsletter/2018/Shale-is-dead-long-live-conventional-oil.pdf ..."
He neglects other factors such as:
(1) poor soil management practices;
(2) demographics such as some 3 million Columbian citizens fleeing the Fascist Columbian
military attacks and putting extra stress on the social programs;
(3) Increasing US needs for Venezuela heavy crude to blend with the light fractions coming
from fracking operations (e.g. Eagle Ford light "oil" condensates;
(4) US military need for War to support funding levels (e.g. Smidley Butler's "war is a
racket";
(5) batshit crazy neocon and neoliberal ideology and world domination.
The EROI issue is worse that many consider. See Gail Tverberg article "How the Peak Oil
Story Could Be "Close," But Not Quite Right". The article points out that wellhead costs do
not capture the downstream costs of production and tax capture that bust further reduce the
EROI. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2019/01/peak-oil-story-close-not-quite-right.html
US need for heavy oil is also due to declines in conventional oil production. Fracking
"oil" ( high in condensates) has been used to mask the peak (real) oil declines and also has
a lower energy content/barrel and must be blended with heavy oil for the refineries to
process it. Thus, "Prices of heavier U.S. grades like Mars Sour, an offshore medium U.S.
crude, and Heavy Louisiana Sweet crude have risen as buyers scramble for supply".
The economics of the US fracking light oil condensates industry is much worse when you
consider the offloading of pollution costs (drinking water), health effects, wear and tear of
highways from trucking the oil, water and fracking sands (one pound/barrel), climate change
from massive methane flaring, volatile organic compounds (VOC) release and earthquake damage
from deep injection of the water cut fluids.
Its interesting that in Asia, the USG also says it wants to help build infrastructure for
LNG use (as an element of its anti China strategy) but then also wants Asian nations like
Vietnam to buy American LNG (to reduce America's trade deficits, etc.) once the
infrastructure is in place.
Except it would be economically stupid for anyone in Asia to buy more expensive US LNG,
when adequate supplies of LNG at lower costs are available from nations like Australia,
Malaysia and Indonesia and of course Qatar.
I guess when you really can't compete because you subsidize the military and FIRE sectors
and don't invest in your society, you resort to government interference in the market or
"regime change", and then criticize anyone for doing the same thing. Hypocrisy at its
finest.
" it has offered to sell high-priced LNG from the United States (via port facilities that do
not yet exist in anywhere near the volume required)." -- facilities that are themselves
dangerous and highly controversial. Oregon is in the midst of one of those controversies,
trying to stop construction of an LNG export "facility" at Coos Bay, a scenic but impoverished
port on the southern Oregon coast. It would come with a pipeline across the state, which is
also highly unwelcome. LNG facilities are a fuel-air bomb waiting to happen, if it should leak
-- the Oregon coast is subject to Magnitude 9 subduction quakes and tsunamis. The project would
also involve massive dredging that would threaten the local seafood industry. And gas pipelines
are subject to their own threats, doubly so in earthquake country. Maybe they can be built
uncontested in Europe -- but I doubt it.
"... UN should be probing Washington and allies for regime-change crimes Identical condemnations from the US and allies and the synchronicity show that Venezuela is being targeted for regime change in a concerted plot led by Washington. ..."
"... It is so disappointing that Americans yet to come to realization that this criminal Jewish Mafia does not standing at the end of the old republic. He is DEEPLY involved, but his STYLE is different. He kills and terrorize the same as Regan, Carter, Clinton, Bush, Obama who have killed millions of people. His sanction is the KILLING MACHINE to topple governments TO STEAL THEIR RESOURCES FOR THE DUMMIES. I have NO respect for the liars who are trying to paint a criminal as someone 'standing against' the deep state. TRUMP IS PART OF THE DEEP STATE, ONLY DUMMIES DO NOT GET IT. ..."
"... No matter the situation in Venezuela, whatever the US government and media are saying is just hostile propaganda as they couldn't give a rat's ass about the people living there. The Libyan people were doing well out of their oil, as were the Iraqis, living in reasonable wealth and security, and look at them now after the US decided to meddle in their affairs. Now after all that, even if something the US government says may be true, why believe it? How many times do you need to be fooled to stop being a fool? ..."
"... The nuttiest member of the Trump administration is UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Her latest neo-nazi stunt was to join protestors last week calling for the overthrow of the democratically elected government of Venezuela. She grabbed a megaphone at a tiny New York rally and told the few "protesters" (organized by our CIA) to say the USA is working to overthrow their President. This was so bizarre that our corporate media refused to report it. ..."
"... Why does everyone make Trump out to be a victim, poor ol Trump, he's being screwed by all those people he himself appointed, poor ol persecuted Trump. Sounds like our Jewish friends with all the victimization BS. ..."
"... By now Trump must be near bat shit crazy. Imagine hundreds of vampires descending on every exposed artery and vein. Does he have a chance in 2020? Not with the people who are around him today ..."
"... Regardless of what the MSM reports, the population is fed-up with all the malarkey, and the same old faces. ..."
"... If he can he should issue an executive order allowing important items like immigration to go directly to public referendum, by passing congress. We're tired of idiots with personal grudges holding our President hostage. Stern times calls for sterner measures. ..."
"... Juan Guaidó is the product of a decade-long project overseen by Washington's elite regime change trainers. While posing as a champion of democracy, he has spent years at the forefront of a violent campaign of destabilization. ..."
Agent76 says:
January 30, 2019 at 7:21 pm GMT 100 Words Jan 24, 2019 Catastrophic Consequences What's Really Happening in Venezuela
In this video, we give you the latest breaking news on the current situation in Venezuela with Maduro, the election, and Trump's
response.
UN should be probing Washington and allies for regime-change crimes Identical condemnations from the US and allies and the
synchronicity show that Venezuela is being targeted for regime change in a concerted plot led by Washington.
@Sergey Krieger Negotiations are not necessarily a sign of weakness. However, Maduro should negotiate with the puppet masters,
not with the puppet. I don't think that killing that pathetic Guaido is a good strategy: you don't want to make a martyr out of
nonentity.
And, in effect, I wish for the success of Juan Guaido in his struggle with Maduro, and I support American diplomatic and
economic pressure on Maduro to step down. After all, Venezuela is in our back yard with huge oil reserves.
FUCK YOU! Venezuela is not "our" back yard. And the oil does not belong to "us".
[Donald Trump, for all that and for his various faults and miscues, is in reality the only thing standing in the way of the end
of the old republic. ]
It is so disappointing that Americans yet to come to realization that this criminal Jewish Mafia does not standing at the
end of the old republic. He is DEEPLY involved, but his STYLE is different. He kills and terrorize the same as Regan, Carter,
Clinton, Bush, Obama who have killed millions of people. His sanction is the KILLING MACHINE to topple governments TO STEAL THEIR
RESOURCES FOR THE DUMMIES. I have NO respect for the liars who are trying to paint a criminal as someone 'standing against' the
deep state. TRUMP IS PART OF THE DEEP STATE, ONLY DUMMIES DO NOT GET IT.
The ignorant Jewish mafia 'president' IS MORE DANGEROUS because he like his 'advisors' is totally ILLITERATE. It is a family
business dummies.
Are dummies going to hold petty people like Bolton who lie to get money from MEK to buy a new suit and new shoes, is responsible
for the policy of the Trump regime where he wages WARS, economic sanction, to starve children to surrender? Then NO ONE Trusts
you. MEK people are not more than 20, but are funded by the US colony, Saudi Arabia where MBS transfers money to the Jewish mafia
family funding US wars.
Maduro has EVERY SINGLE RIGHT to arrest Juan Guiado, a gigolo who is taking orders from a US and an illiterate 'president',
where its dark history known to every living creature on earth. US has massacred millions of people in all continents including
Latin America.
Maduro has every single right to arrest him and put on trail and execute him as a traitor and an enemy of the state. How many
years the people in Venezuela should suffer for the US 'regime change' and its crimes against humanity in Venezuela to STEAL ITS
RESOURCES.
"So let me get this straight: The Russians brought America to its knees with a few facebook ads, but Uncle Sam's concerted and
ongoing efforts to overthrow governments around the world and interfere with elections is perfectly fine? Because democracy? Riiiiiiight."
:
[The last Venezuelan Presidential election was a joke. ]
YOU ARE A JOKE ZIONIST IDIOT.
The Making of Juan Guaidó: How the US Regime Change Laboratory Created Venezuela's Coup Leader
[Juan Guaidó is the product of a decade-long project overseen by Washington's elite regime change trainers. While posing as
a champion of democracy, he has spent years at the forefront of a violent campaign of destabilization.]
Illiterate Jewish Mafia 'president' must be kicked out of the office. Hands of Israel is all over the SELECTION.
The ignorant 'president' is MORE DANGEROUS THANT OTHER CRIMINAL US REGIMES because on top of being a criminal, he is ILLITERATE
as well.
[In 2009, the Generation 2007 youth activists staged their most provocative demonstration yet, dropping their pants on public
roads and aping the outrageous guerrilla theater tactics outlined by Gene Sharp in his regime change manuals.This far-right group
"gathered funds from a variety of US government sources, which allowed it to gain notoriety quickly as the hardline wing of opposition
street movements," according to academic George Ciccariello-Maher's book, "Building the Commune."
That year, Guaidó exposed himself to the public in another way, founding a political party to capture the anti-Chavez energy
his Generation 2007 had cultivated.]
@By-tor See, this is the typical lie. Socialism fails, so the socialist blames the outside wrecker for causing the problem.
If Moscow freezes, then it is because of the wreckers. If Moscow starves, then it is because of the wreckers.
If Venezuela collapses, then it is because of "sanctions," not the failure of the new socialist economy.
America has the right to lock anyone out of its economy that it wants, for whatever reasons. This should not matter because
that nation can still trade with the rest of the world, like China. Venezuela could get everything it wants by simply selling
oil to China in exchange for goods. The problem is, there is not enough oil production to do so and other nations are reluctant
to replace American investment for fear of losing their assets as well.
Think about how wrong-headed the Chavez policy has been. If the Venezuelans have problems with their local ruling class and
want to get rid of them fine do so. But, why go after the American oil company? The Americans don't care who rules Venezuela as
long as their contracts are honored. Chavez could have then been a true socialist an allocate a greater dividend to Venezuelans
that was previously being hoarded by the ruling class an arrangement similar to what Alaskans have with American oil companies.
But no there was an immediate seizure of assets because the only purpose of socialism is to make the socialist leaders rich.
And Chavez and Maduro became very rich indeed.
@AnonFromTN I would happily martyr gorbachov , Yeltsin and all their gang. I think everybody would have been far better of
then. Same is applied to the puppet. Nikolai II was martyred and things got a lot better. What is important is winning and final
outcome, while making some martyrs in the process.
@Harold Smith Trump's personnel picks are mind-boggling. I cannot see how he disapproves Eliot Abrams for deputy SoS with
one breath, then blandly allows Pompeo to appoint him an envoy to a trouble-spot. Bolton, Pompeo, Goldberg et al.
NEOCON America does not want Russian bombers in South America.
Real America doesn't give a f*ck. Bombers are so last century, might as well put up machine-gun equipped Union Pacific Big
Boys to make it marginally more steampunk and become a real danger for the USA.
@Tyrion 2 There is not a single complaint here that did not exist before the election or before Pres Chavez.
There are poor management leaders all over the globe. That';s their business. Hey we have some right here in the US I take
it your solution is a military coup or better yet a coup fostered by the EU or the OAS, or maybe ASEAN or SDG . . .
It would be nice if someone simply asked Trump why it is he originally wanted to get along with Russia and pull out of the middle
east and generally opposed the "neoconservative" approach and now seems to be hiring neocons and doing what they want. Is he trying
to placate Sheldon Adelson and Adelson's lackeys, or what? I don't know of his being asked about this directly.
Venezuelan lawmaker Jose Guerra dropped a bombshell on Twitter Tuesday: The Russian Boeing 777 that had landed in Caracas the
day before was there to spirit away 20 tons of gold from the vaults of the country's central bank. Guerra is a former central
bank economist who remains in touch with old colleagues there. A person with direct knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg News
Tuesday that 20 tons of gold have been set aside in the central bank for loading. Worth some $840 million, the gold represents
about 20 percent of its holdings of the metal in Venezuela.
No matter the situation in Venezuela, whatever the US government and media are saying is just hostile propaganda as they
couldn't give a rat's ass about the people living there. The Libyan people were doing well out of their oil, as were the Iraqis,
living in reasonable wealth and security, and look at them now after the US decided to meddle in their affairs. Now after all
that, even if something the US government says may be true, why believe it? How many times do you need to be fooled to stop being
a fool?
No, Chavez had popular legitimacy. Maduro has nothing but force to keep himself in power now. Yes, there's easy definition
for the above but Chavismo is decrepit.
Pressure for a reasonable Presidential election is based on that.
The Trumptards blindly support me. I can do no wrong.
There are not enough independent thinkers to make a difference as the two main sides bitterly fight each other over every
minute, meaningless issue.
I can pretty much do as I please without consequence ..like pay off all my buddies and pander to the jews/globalist/elites.
I'd add: and by doing the last, I could cut a deal with the real TPTBs as to for what happens after I leave White House.
Chavez had popular support . He felt the need to intimidate opponents from the beginning. Like Bill Bellicheck and Tom
Brady feeling the need to cheat.
Makes sense. They owe a big chunk of money to Russia and a payment of 100 million is coming due. Russia gets security for future
payments while it holds their gold in a safe place. They may ship the rest to China if they are smart
The nuttiest member of the Trump administration is UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Her latest neo-nazi stunt was to join
protestors last week calling for the overthrow of the democratically elected government of Venezuela. She grabbed a megaphone
at a tiny New York rally and told the few "protesters" (organized by our CIA) to say the USA is working to overthrow their
President. This was so bizarre that our corporate media refused to report it.
She's being paid no doubt by the usual suspects. She is personally 1 million in debt and has signed with a Speakers agency
to give speeches for 200,000 a pop.
COLUMBIA, S.C. (WCIV)
"Haley is currently quoting $200,000 and the use of a private jet for domestic speaking engagements, according to CNBC
In October 2018, when Haley resigned, she said, she would be taking a "step up" into the private sector after leaving the U.N.
According to a public financial disclosure report based on 2017 data, at the rate quoted for her engagements, just a handful would
pay down more than $1 million in outstanding debt that was accrued during her 14 years
3. There are not enough independent thinkers to make a difference as the two main sides bitterly fight each other over every
minute, meaningless issue.
Well people you need to explore this move to take over Venezuela in the context of what having that oil control will mean for
the US and Israel in the increasingly likely event we blow up Iran and up end the ME for Israel.
So what could happen that might make control of oil rich Venezuela necessary? Why has Venezuela become a Bolton and Abrams
project? Why is Netanyahu putting himself into the Venezuela crisis ?
We, otoh, would need all the oil we could get if we blew up the ME, specifically Iran, figuratively or literally. The US signed
a MOU with Israel in 1973 obligating us to supply Israel with oil ( and ship it to them) if they couldn't secure any for themselves.
@Hibernian I hate those two guys so much, and the owner Kraft also. I'm hoping for a helmet to helmet collision for Brady
early in the second quarter with his bell ringing for the rest of the game. (Evil grin)
@Tyrion 2 Yes, the int'l monitors said the elections were fair as Maduro received over 60% of the vote. You think the 'deplorables'
of venezuela elected the known US-Wall Street neo-liberal puppet Guaido? No, the US Tape Worm groomed this twerp, all-the-while
his backers and paymasters in the American neo-Liberal ruling class claim Russian meddling in the 2016 US elections. The shamelessness
and hypocrisy is astounding.
@Tyrion 2 Pres Hugo Chavez's admin was very controversial. And the conditions you speak of have plagued Venezuela even before
Pres Chavez came to government.
This really is none of our affair. We don't have a mandate to go about the planet tossing out whoever we think is crazy. He
is not a threat to the US. There's no indication that he intends to harm US businesses.
Their polity means their polity. You'll have to do better than he's crazy, mean, a despot, etc. That's for them to resolve.
@Commentator Mike Seems some will never learn the definition of insanity, especially the NeoCons who have been running America
for far too long. I recommend John Perkins "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man" for the less informed among us here today. Maybe
at some point they will get a clue.
I heartily dislike and find despicable the socialist government of Maduro, just as I did Hugo Chavez when he was in power.
I have some good friends there, one of whom was a student of mine when I taught in Argentina many years ago, and he and his
family resolutely oppose Maduro. Those socialist leaders in Caracas are tin-pot dictator wannabees who have wrecked the economy
of that once wealthy country; and they have ridden roughshod over the constitutional rights of the citizens. My hope has been
that the people of Venezuela, perhaps supported by elements in the army, would take action to rid the country of those tyrants.
Hard to take this guy seriously when he spouts Fox News level propaganda.
Why does everyone make Trump out to be a victim, poor ol Trump, he's being screwed by all those people he himself appointed,
poor ol persecuted Trump. Sounds like our Jewish friends with all the victimization BS.
Its clear that voting no longer works folks, this is an undemocratic and illegitimate "government" we have here. We let them
get away with killing JFK, RFK, MLK, Vietnam, we let them get away with 9/11, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Syria. They've made a
mess in Africa. All the refugees into Europe, all the refugees from Latin America that have already come from CIA crimes, more
will come.
We wouldn't need a wall if Wall St would stop with their BS down there!
You can't just blame Jews, yes there are lots of Jews in Corporate America, bu t not all of them are, and there are lots of
Jews who speak out against this. We were doing this long before Israel came into existence. You can't just blame everything one
one group, I think Israel/Zionist are responsible for a lot of BS, but you can't exclude CIA, Wall St, Corporations, Banks, The
MIC either. Its not just one group, its all of them. They're all evil, they're imperialists and they're all capitalists. I think
Israel is just a capitalist creation, nothing to do with Jews, just a foothold in he middle east for Wall St to have a base to
control the oil and gas there, they didn't create Israel until they dicovered how much oil was there, and realized how much control
over the world it would give them to control it. Those people moving to Israel are being played, just like the "Christian Zionists"
here are, its a cult. Most "Jews" are atheists anyhow, and it seems any ol greedy white guy can claim to be a Jew. So how do you
solve a "Jewish Problem" if anybody can claim to be a Jew? I think solving the capitalist problem would be a little easier to
enforce.
All of the shills can scream about communists, socialists and marxists all they want. Capitalism is the problem always has
been always will be. Its a murderous, immoral, unsustainable system that encourages greed, it is a system who's driving force
is maximizing profits, and as such the State controlled or aligned with Corporations is the most advanced form of capitalism because
it is the most profitable. They're raping the shit out of us, taking our money to fund their wars, so they can make more money
while paying little to no taxes at all. Everything, everyone here complains about is caused by CAPITALISM, but nobody dares say
it, they've been programmed since birth to think that way.
We should nationalize our oil and gas, instead of letting foreigners come in and steal it, again paying little or no taxes
on it, then selling the oil they took from our country back to us. Russia and Venezuela do it, Libya did it, Iraq did it, and
they used the money for the people of the country, they didn't let the capitalists plunder their wealth like the traitors running
our country. We're AT LEAST $21 trillion in the hole now from this wonderful system of ours, don't you think we should try something
else? Duh!
It is the love of money, the same thing the Bible warned us about. Imperialism/globalism is the latest stage of capitalism,
that is what all of this is about, follow the money. Just muh opinion
@Tyrion 2 From the people fool not by the C.I.A. declaring that well we like the other fellow best for president,after all
using the logic you fail to have Hillary could have said call me madam president and leave the orange clown out in the dark,stupid,stupid
people
"And, in effect, I wish for the success of Juan Guaido in his struggle with Maduro, and I support American diplomatic and
economic pressure on Maduro to step down. After all, Venezuela is in our back yard with huge oil reserves."
OMG, Cathey really said that. Is he always such a shit? He certainly has Venezuela completely wrong.
@AnonFromTN This phylosophical questions should not led to no actions. Modern Russia is actually in much better position now
than it was in 1913. True. There is never final. Sorry for wrong words choice. Dialectics.
@Wizard of Oz The scenario you describe is an accurate. And requires me to make judgments about a dynamic I am unfamiliar
with -- no bite. Several sides to this tale and I have heard and seen it before.
I may however make a call.
In 2017 2/3 of the states in the region chose not to interfere. They have not changed their minds on intervention.
ohh by the way I did ask and here's the familial response:
But reading the data sets makes it clear that what they want is some humanitarian relief. B y and large I have the family telling
me to mind my own business, but they would like a meal, some medicine and some water.
By now Trump must be near bat shit crazy. Imagine hundreds of vampires descending on every exposed artery and vein. Does he
have a chance in 2020? Not with the people who are around him today.
Regardless of what the MSM reports, the population is fed-up with all the malarkey, and the same old faces.
In Trump's remaining 2 years he must throw off the parasites, bring in real men, and go to work on infrastructure, health
care, and real jobs. He has to out the naysayers, the creeps and the war mongers. Throw Bolton from the train, and divorce Netanyahu
and Israel. Appeal directly to the public.
If he can he should issue an executive order allowing important items like immigration to go directly to public referendum,
by passing congress. We're tired of idiots with personal grudges holding our President hostage. Stern times calls for sterner
measures.
@RobinG That would be an easy, almost optimistic explanation: some people are venal enough to say or write anything for money.
Pessimistic explanation is that some people who can read and write are nonetheless dumb or brainwashed enough to sincerely believe
the BS they are writing.
Can you define what capitalism is ? Once that idea is refined, finessed, and compared to multiple color changes of capitalism,
it becomes easier who to fit in the plastic infinitely expandable box of ideas of capitalism starting with the chartered company
to patient laws to companies making military hardwares paid by tax payers to tax cut by government to seizure of foreign asset
by US-UK to protection of the US business by military forces to selling military gadgets to the countries owned by families like
Saudi royals Gulf monarchs and to the African ( American installed ) dictators to printing money .
A great article I posted in another thread few days ago dives deep into who Juan Guaido is and his past grooming for the past
10+ years:
Juan Guaidó is the product of a decade-long project overseen by Washington's elite regime change trainers. While posing
as a champion of democracy, he has spent years at the forefront of a violent campaign of destabilization.
"Whoever believed that Trump will drain the swamp must feel disappointed."
The thing is, Trump just didn't fail to drain the swamp, he "took the ball and ran with
it." Apparently he's an enthusiastic imperialist who gets off on the illegitimate use of
military force. (His attack on the Shayrat airbase in Syria should end any debate about
that).
Supposedly he's been wanting to attack Venezuela for a while:
I can understand Trump's die-hard supporters' argument that Trump is being coerced into
doing evil things (although I don't agree with it), but how can they explain Trump's apparent
enthusiasm?
The only explanation that makes sense to me is that Trump's anti-war/anti-interventionist
tweets from 2013 were insincere and his whole presidential campaign was a brazen fraud.
Edit: I just saw your comment #71; so you apparently see it the same way I do.
@By-tor Maduro is just Venezuelan Mugabe. Has it really come to this? That people on Unz
will support any random lunatic as long as he mouths off about America or Israel every now
and again?
Oh, but the sanctions! Proper economic sanctions were only very recently applied. The
Venezuelan economy was already utterly wrecked by their joke of a government.
Liken the US not trading with Venezuela to a medieval siege if you like, but I suggest you
read up on medieval sieges first. Hint: they weren't merely a government run boycott.
@onebornfree Some all to rare common sense – a writer who understands that both big
government Trump and the big government "opposition" to Trump are not, never were , and never
will be, "the answer":
"The Real Problem Is The Politicization Of Everything"
" While on the market and in radically decentralized systems, disagreements and
polarization are not a problem, centralized political decision-making has in its nature that
only one view can prevail. Suddenly, who is in the White House or whether regulation X or Y
is passed does matter a great deal, and those with a different opinion than you on it may
seem like actual enemies. Within voluntary settings, one can live with people that one
disagrees with. All parties curate a way of life that works while living in peace with
others.
To regain civility in human interactions and finally treat other human beings as human
beings again, we would do well to get politics out of human affairs."
For those who think this coup attempt was sudden, here is something from my blog:
Oct 9, 2018 – Ambassador Supports Coup
Few Americans know that our nation imposed harsh economic sanctions on Venezuela because
the Neocons want to overthrow its democratic government. They hate that oil rich Venezuela
insists on controlling its oil production rather than allowing big American corporations to
run things. Almost three years ago, Neocon puppet Barack Obama declared a national emergency
to impose sanctions by designating Venezuela an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to
national security, and Trump continued sanctions.
The nuttiest member of the Trump administration is UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Her latest
neo-nazi stunt was to join protestors last week calling for the overthrow of the
democratically elected government of Venezuela. She grabbed a megaphone at a tiny New York
rally and told the few "protesters" (organized by our CIA) to say the USA is working to
overthrow their President. This was so bizarre that our corporate media refused to report it.
Jimmy Dore assembled this great video of CNN presenting their expert calling the President of
Venezuela paranoid for saying the USA wants to overthrow his government. A few hours later, a
different CNN report documented recent efforts by the USA to overthrow his government!
@Tyrion 2 This is not about Maduro, or Guaido, who is likely an even bigger shit, as he
clearly serves foreign masters. Don't you think it should be up to the people of Venezuela to
change their president? The US meddling is against every rule of behavior of countries
towards other countries. How would you feel if Burkina Faso told you who should be the
president of the US? That's exactly how every Venezuelan who has dignity feels, regardless of
their opinion of Maduro and his coterie.
@Tyrion 2 The US has been plotting against Venezuela since the last Wall Street puppet
Pres. Rafael Caldera was defeated by Chavez and ownership of oil assets returned to Venezuela
thereby cutting out anf angering the NYC-London predatory globalist cabal. Trump's hitmen are
now preventing the Venezuelan state from accessing credit and from withdrawing its own money
and gold foolishly deposited in US and London banks. The Venezuelan corporate elite act
against the general population. You do not fully understand the situation.
Ethnonationalist stuff is ridiculous, it's stupid on the face of it, it's ridiculous,
I've said it from day one. Ethnonationalism is a dead end, it's for losers. Economic
nationalism and civic nationalism bind you together as citizens, regardless of your race,
regardless of your ethnicity, regardless of your religion
@Digital Samizdat Digital Samizdat -- As civic nationalism is no kind of nationalism and
presents no obstacle to race replacement, I imagine Jewry will be happy with it. Jewry will
also be happy that
Bannon the race realist ('It's been almost a Camp of the Saints-type invasion into
Central and then Western and Northern Europe') has been successfully neutered.
"... In February 2017, it was reported that Abrams was Secretary of State Rex Tillerson 's first pick for Deputy Secretary of State , but that Tillerson was subsequently overruled by Trump. Trump aides were supportive of Abrams , but Trump opposed him because of Abrams' opposition during the campaign. ..."
"... On January 25, 2019, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo appointed Abrams as the United States' Special Envoy to Venezuela ." ..."
There he was, right there on the stage to the right side of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
who was briefing the press on America's position concerning the recent coup in Venezuela. I
rubbed my eyes -- was I seeing what I thought I was seeing?
It was Elliot Abrams. What was HE doing there? After all, back in February 2017, after
then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had pushed for his nomination as Deputy Secretary of
State, it was President Trump himself who had vetoed his appointment.
Here is how the anodyne account in Wikipedia describes it:
In February 2017, it was reported that Abrams was Secretary of State Rex Tillerson 's first pick
for Deputy Secretary of
State , but that Tillerson was subsequently overruled by Trump. Trump aides were
supportive of Abrams , but Trump opposed him because of Abrams' opposition during the
campaign. [emphasis mine]
Abrams during the 2016 campaign had been a NeverTrumper who vigorously opposed Donald Trump
and who had strongly attacked the future president's "Make America Great Again," America First
foreign policy proposals.
Abrams, a zealous Neoconservative and ardent globalist was -- and is -- one of those foreign
policy "experts" who has never seen a conflict in a faraway country, in a desert or jungle,
where he did not want to insert American troops, especially if such an intervention would
support Israeli policy. He was deeply enmeshed in earlier American interventionist miscues and
blunders in the Middle East, even incurring charges of malfeasance.
Apparently, President Trump either did not know that or perhaps did not remember Abrams's
activities or stout opposition. In any case, back in 2017 it took an intervention by a
well-placed friend with Washington connections who provided that information directly to Laura
Ingraham who then, in turn, placed it on the president's desk And Abrams' selection was
effectively stopped, torpedoed by Donald Trump.
But here now was Abrams on stage with the Secretary of State.
What was that all about?
Again, I went to Wikipedia, and once again, I quote from that source: " On January 25,
2019, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo appointed Abrams as the United
States' Special Envoy to Venezuela ."
Despite President Trump's resolute veto back in February 2017, Abrams was back, this time as
a Special Envoy, right smack in the department that President Trump had forbade him to serve
in. Did the president know? Had he signed off on this specially-created appointment? After all,
the very title "Special Envoy on Venezuela" seems something dreamed up bureaucratically by the
policy wonks at State, or maybe by Mike Pompeo.
Then there was the widely reported news, accompanied by a convenient camera shot of National
Security Adviser John Bolton's note pad (which may or may not have been engineered by him),
with the scribble: "5,000 troops to Colombia."
What gives here?
Last week suddenly there was a coup d'etat in Venezuela, with the head of the national
assembly, Juan Guiado, proclaiming himself as the country's new and rightful president, and the
theoretical deposition of then-current President Nicolas Maduro. And we were told that this
action was totally "spontaneous" and an "act of the Venezuelan people for democracy," and that
the United States had had nothing to do with it.
If you believe that, I have an oil well in my backyard that I am quite willing to sell to
you for a few million, or maybe a bit less.
Of course, the United States and our overseas intelligence services were involved.
Let me clarify: like most observers who have kept up with the situation in oil-rich
Venezuela, I heartily dislike and find despicable the socialist government of Maduro, just as I
did Hugo Chavez when he was in power. I have some good friends there, one of whom was a student
of mine when I taught in Argentina many years ago, and he and his family resolutely oppose
Maduro. Those socialist leaders in Caracas are tin-pot dictator wannabees who have wrecked the
economy of that once wealthy country; and they have ridden roughshod over the constitutional
rights of the citizens. My hope has been that the people of Venezuela, perhaps supported by
elements in the army, would take action to rid the country of those tyrants.
And, in effect, I wish for the success of Juan Guaido in his struggle with Maduro, and I
support American diplomatic and economic pressure on Maduro to step down. After all,
Venezuela is in our back yard with huge oil reserves.
But potentially sending American troops -- as many as 5,000 -- to fight in a country which
is made up largely of jungle and impassible mountains, appears just one more instance, one more
example, of the xenophobic internationalism of men like Bolton and the now state department
official, Abrams, who believe American boots on the ground is the answer to every international
situation. Experience over the past four decades should indicate the obvious folly of such
policies for all but the historically blind and ideologically corrupt.
While we complain that the Russians and Chinese have propped up the Maduro government and
invested deeply in Venezuela, a country within our "sphere of influence" in the Western
Hemisphere (per the "Monroe Doctrine") -- we have done the very same thing, even more
egregiously in regions like Ukraine that were integrally part of historical Russia, and in
Crimea, which was never really part of Ukraine (only for about half a century) but historically
and ethnically Russian. Did we not solemnly pledge to Mikhail Gorbachev, under George H. W.
Bush, that if the old Soviet Union would dissolve and let its some fourteen socialist
"republics" go their own way, leave the Russian Federation, that we, in turn, would not advance
NATO up to the borders of Russia? And then we did the exact opposite almost immediately go back
on our word and move our troops and advisers right up to the borders of post-1991 Russia?
From mid-2015 on I was a strong supporter of Donald Trump, and, in many ways, I still am. In
effect, he may be the only thing that stands in the way of a total and complete recouping of
power by the Deep State, the only slight glimmer of light -- that immovable force who stands up
at times to the power-elites and who has perhaps given us a few years of respite as the
managerial class zealously attempts to repair the breach he -- and we -- inflicted on it in
2016.
My major complaint, what I have seen as a kind of Achilles' Heel in the Trump presidency,
has always been in personnel, those whom the president has surrounded himself with. And my
criticism is measured and prudential, in the sense that I also understand what happens -- and
what did happen -- when a billionaire businessman, a kind of bull-in-the-china shop (exactly
what was needed), comes to Washington and lacks experience with the utterly amoral and
oleaginous and obsequious political class that has dominated and continues to dominate our
government, both Democrats and, most certainly, Republicans.
The wife of a very dear friend of thirty-five years served in a fairly high post during the
Reagan administration. Before her untimely death a few years ago, she recounted to me in stark
detail how the minions and acolytes of George H. W. Bush managed to surround President Reagan
and subvert large portions of the stated Reagan Agenda. Reagan put his vice-president
effectively in charge of White House personnel: and, as they say, that was it, the Reagan
Revolution was essentially over.
In 2016 a number of friends and I created something called "Scholars for Trump." Composed
mostly of academics, research professors, and accomplished professionals, and headed by Dr.
Walter Block, Professor of Economics at Loyola-New Orleans, and Dr. Paul Gottfried,
Raffensperger Professor of Humanities at Elizabethtown College, in Pennsylvania, we attempted
to gather real professed believers in the stated Trump agenda. We received scant mention
(mostly negative) in the so-called "conservative" press, who proceeded to smear us as
"ultra-right wingers" and "paleo-conservatives." And, suddenly, there appeared another
pro-Trump list, and that one composed largely of the same kinds of professionals, but many if
not most of whom had not supported Donald Trump and his agenda during the primary
campaigns.
What was certain was that many of the amoral time-servers and power elitists had decided
that it was time for them to attach themselves to Trump, time for them to insinuate themselves
into positions of power once again, no matter their distaste and scorn for that brash
billionaire upstart from New York.
Remember the (in)famous interview that the President-elect had with Mitt Romney who
desperately wanted to be Secretary of State? Recall the others also interviewed -- some of whom
we remembered as Donald Trump's opponents in the campaign -- who came hat-in-hand to Trump
Tower looking for lucrative positions and the opportunity once again to populate an
administration and direct policy? And, yes, work from within to counteract the stated Trump
agenda?
It would be too facile to blame the president completely: after all, the professional policy
wonks, the touted experts in those along-the-Potomac institutes and foundations, were there
already in place. And, indeed, there was a need politically, as best as possible, to bring
together the GOP if anything were to get through Congress. (As we have seen, under Paul Ryan
practically none of the Trump Agenda was enacted, and Ryan at every moment pushed open
borders.)
Our contacts did try; we did have a few associates close to the president. A few -- but only
a few -- of our real Trump Agenda supporters managed to climb aboard. But in the long run we
were no match for the machinations of the power elites and GOP establishment. And we discovered
that the president's major strength -- not being a Washington Insider -- was also his major
weakness, and that everything depended on his instincts, and that somehow if the discredited
globalists and power-hungry Neoconservatives (who did not give Trump the time of day before his
election) were to go too far, maybe, hopefully, he would react.
And he has, on occasion done just that, as perhaps in the case of Syria, and maybe even in
Afghanistan, and in a few other situations. But each time he has had to pass the gauntlet of
"advisers" whom he has allowed to be in place who vigorously argue against (and undercut) the
policies they are supposed to implement.
Donald Trump, for all that and for his various faults and miscues, is in reality the only
thing standing in the way of the end of the old republic. The fact that he is so violently and
unreservedly hated by the elites, by the media, by academia, and by Hollywood must tell us
something. In effect, however, it not just the president they hate, not even his rough-edged
personality -- it is what he represents, that in 2016 he opened a crack, albeit small, into a
world of Deep State putrefaction, a window into sheer Evil, and the resulting falling away of
the mask of those "body snatchers" who had for so long exuded confidence that their subversion
and control was inevitable and just round the corner.
President Trump will never be forgiven for that. And, so, as much as I become frustrated
with some of the self-inflicted wounds, some of the actions which appear at times to go
flagrantly against his agenda, as much as I become heartsick when I see the faces of Elliot
Abrams -- and Mitt Romney -- in positions where they can continue their chipping away at that
agenda, despite all that, I continue to pray that his better instincts will reign and that he
will look beyond such men, and just maybe learn that what you see first in Washington is
usually not what you'll get.
I cannot imagine a more evil person to be allowed back into govt than this man, who is
more evil than he looks.
It is over, in my mind, with the trump admin; nothing has been done about the long list of
crimes committed by the obama gang during the election and after. Nothing has been done about
seth rich, I would add michael hastings, and the long list of clinton "suicides" and the
clinton crimes. the list is endless with no progress.
The dimos in doj, fbi, etc have completely out-manuevered trump and he really has no junk
yard dog to protect him-guliani is a joke, even if he is sober as he claims to be.
Linh Dinh on this website (June 12, 2016) predicted both the election outcome and its
meaninglessness. He had by then, of course, been blackballed by Scholars, Inc., and is now
helping to run a recycling operation back in Vietnam. But he has emerged as one of the top
Unz columnists, most of his Heritage American attackers who couldn't see past their DNA
having slunk away.
Conversely, go read the comment thread under Mr. Buchanan's latest. People who used to
fall for the "we/us/our" conflation of their country and Uncle Sam are waking up, due largely
to the President in whom you still place your scholarly hope. We may not be scholars, but we
understand that the blood of people in places like Iraq, Libya, Syria, and soon enough
Venezuela is on the hands of those who endorse the warmongering imperialism of Exceptionalia.
Your scholarly enabling, such as:
"And, in effect, I wish for the success of Juan Guaido in his struggle with Maduro, and I
support American diplomatic and economic pressure on Maduro to step down. After all,
Venezuela is in our back yard with huge oil reserves."
is naive at best. As a scholar, did you support the "economic pressure" rationalized by
Secretary of State Albright that killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, many of them
children?
Those of you who still expect the Unz readership to give two sh ** s about Donald Trump or
anyone else in the Washington Puppet Show are fast losing your relevance around here.
Yup, Personnel is Policy; always has been. The scale of it all really precludes the kind of
benefit-of-the-doubt explanation the author struggles to formulate. It's not that Trump tried
to do the right thing but some war-hawks, jews, and Wall-Street shysters got through
regardless. Those were the only people that needed apply because Trump wasn't considering
anybody else. One simply has to conclude that the people that currently surround him are
indeed "his kind of people". And let's not forget that after a crash course in the realities
of government he replaced Tillerson and notorious torturer McMaster because they were not
hawkish, not pro-Israel, enough .
What evidence is there that your definition of "doing the right thing" coincides with
Trump's anyway. Yes he made some non-interventionist noises during the campaign, but that was
mostly during the primary before he'd kissed Adelson's ring in exchange for the shekels. But
he was also "a very militaristic guy" who was all for "taking the oil" and who nonstop hated
on Iran. Face it, it was just the Obama playbook: throw an incoherent mishmash to the proles
in the hope that they remember only those parts they liked.
Isn't Trump's CV rather more illuminating on who he is than his campaign rhetoric: casino
operator and pro-wrestling MC. He gets off on playing the rubes.
From mid-2015 on I was a strong supporter of Donald Trump, and, in many ways, I still
am. In effect, he may be the only thing that stands in the way of a total and complete
recouping of power by the Deep State
Donald Trump, for all that and for his various faults and miscues, is in reality the
only thing standing in the way of the end of the old republic.
.despite all that, I continue to pray that his better instincts will reign and that he
will look beyond such men, and just maybe learn that what you see first in Washington is
usually not what you'll get.
The US military has kept some 3000 soldiers in Columbia for years. Maybe that has grown to
5000, but Bolton's yellow pad note was a simple trick to fool simpletons. Invading Venezuela
would require at least 50,000 US troops.
Americans are quick to denounce socialists, especially those in the US military who thrive
in a socialist US military. Most Americans do not realize that their police, firefighters,
schools, most universities, roads, water, and electricity are products of socialism. If you
have an emergency in the USA, you dial 9-11 for socialists to help you. Everyone thinks that
is great!
From my blog:
Jan 27, 2019 – A Clumsy Slow Coup
Corporate America media has not reported basic facts about the attempted takeover of
Venezuela. The Deep State has tried to overthrow the popular, elected government of Venezuela
for a decade as it gradually nationalized its oil production. Several coup attempts failed so
the USA imposed sanctions to punish the people for voting wrong. Sanctions caused shortages
and inflation but the elected government remains in power.
In the past, the USA conducted coups by bribing Generals to conduct a quick military
takeover, and always denied participation. The Trump administration gave up on deception and
began a clumsy, slow coup. I suspect Trump's new CIA appointed attorney general told Trump
that he had the power to appoint foreign presidents, so last week he openly appointed a new
president for Venezuela. The Venezuelan army openly backs the existing president so nothing
changed. The UN did not recognize Trump's puppet president nor did any other major world
power. These facts do not appear in our corporate media, although the internet provides
reality via a Paul Craig Roberts article. (posted at unz.com)
Trump has now ordered other nations to send payments for oil purchases to a bank account
controlled by his new president. This infuriates foreign governments because they know oil
shipments will stop if they fail to pay the legitimate government of Venezuela, and oil
prices will rise worldwide as they scramble to buy oil elsewhere. Meanwhile, a massive
humanitarian and refugee crisis is building as the result of this economic embargo.
I do not know how the fracking is going in the winter. I have read somewhere, that yields
from fracking are going down. also that fracking companies are moving down to Texas.Also I do
not know the state of strategic reserves, But I definitely suspect that moves in Venezuela
were planed long before. so I have to presume that this is all about price of oil.
Trump quite a while ago, quite eagerly said something about moving on Venezuela.
Trump can be easily triggered by any economic subject by which US gains. But I do suspect
that in this case it could be economic necessity. (What would be a real shame.)
@Taras77 I agree Taras. Although I much enjoyed reading Boyd Cathey's essay, sadly, I
think he remains too optimistic. With the D's back in charge of the House, and the R's
impotent in the Senate, (McConnell as majority leader is a joke), Trump's stated agenda is
all over. He got nothing in his first two years besides the traditional GOP tax cut for the
rich. And he waited far too long to get serious about the wall. Yes, Koch-man Paul Ryan
opposed it, but surely Trump could have tried harder to get enough R votes to override him.
His only option now, unless Pelosi budges a little, would be to declare a National Emergency
on Feb 15. There is no way he could shut down the government again. Let's see how that goes.
However I disagree with Realist's comment. With Trump being attacked viciously on all
sides, I don't understand how anyone could think he is part of the Deep State. I think Victor
Davis Hanson got it right when he called Trump a "Tragic Hero."
Whoever believed that Trump will drain the swamp must feel disappointed. The US foreign
policy is run by the swamp now, like it always was. The US uses full range of classical
gangster tactics against Venezuela: blackmail, theft of assets, threats, etc. The US tries to
instigate yet another "color revolution" to bring yet another puppet to power in yet another
country. The only difference is, Maduro resists. But that's the difference in the victim
country, not in DC.
I do not know how the fracking is going in the winter. I have read somewhere, that yields
from fracking are going down. also that fracking companies are moving down to Texas.Also I do
not know the state of strategic reserves, But I definitely suspect that moves in Venezuela
were planed long before. so I have to presume that this is all about price of oil.
Trump quite a while ago, quite eagerly said something about moving on Venezuela.
Trump can be easily triggered by any economic subject by which US gains. But I do suspect
that in this case it could be economic necessity. (What would be a real shame.)
@Ilyana_Rozumova It is not clear whether you are saying that Trump is trying to raise or
lower oil prices.
If he wants to lower oil prices then why is he making it difficult for Iran to sell its
oil?
If he wants to raise oil prices then why does he want the big US oil companies in
Venezuela to sort out that country's oil business and raise exports?
I suspect he, and those around him, have no idea what they want to achieve. They are
simply trying to demonstrate their "power" and ability to change regimes. To give the Monroe
Doctrine a bit of oxygen. To scare the European vassals.
@Taras77 Correct, Trump is a member of the Deep State. Trump's election and big talk is a
charade. It is hard to believe anyone would not see Trump as a chimera after all his
bullshit.
Also I do not know the state of strategic reserves, But I definitely suspect that moves
in Venezuela were planed long before
Trump is doing the same thing he did in his businesses ..using 'other people's
money.assests' to cover his ass.
Now picture this ..sanctions on Iran, sanctions on Russia, sanctions on Venezuela + rising US
interest rates + a slowing economy + half of US oil reserves sold to cover government
spending.
Hope people get use to riding a bike when this perfect storm hits.
U.S. sells 11 million barrels of oil from reserve to Exxon, five other
firmshttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oil-reserve/u-s-sells-11-million-barrels-of-oil-from-reserve-to-exxon-five-other-firms-idUSKCN1LG2WT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Six companies, including ExxonMobil Corp, bought a total of 11
million barrels of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a Department of Energy
document showed on Friday, in a sale timed to take place ahead of U.S. sanctions on Iran that
are expected to remove oil from the global market.
Sale of the oil from the reserve was mandated by previous laws to fund the federal government
and to fund a drug program, but the Trump administration took the earliest available time to
sell the crude under the law.
The sale's timing "would appear to reflect President Donald Trump's concern regarding oil
market tightness associated with the reinstatement of Iran oil sanctions," analysts at
ClearView Energy Partners said after the sale was announced on August 20.
@Carlton Meyer A slight correction is needed here. The UK, Germany, Israel and France has
signed onto this.
Just as all four of them were more than willing to help smash Libya to dust so they could
steal their oil fields and all that gold Gaddafi had hoarded up for his independent gold back
African currency.
I think what is happening in Venezuela is not an isolated event. It is connected to a broad
"connect the dots" South American strategy. The other dots are:
1) Bolsonaro's election victory.
2) Changes in structural relationship with Argentina, Chile, Colombia.
3) Cuba isolation.
4) Bolivia isolation.
5) And finally the recent unexpected dam collapse in Brazil, followed by IDF's offer to fly
in hundreds of soldiers to help.
S America is about to become the next Middle East (Syria). Weapons proliferation. War
profiting. Mass scale disruption. Already a profound refugee crisis. And all the traditional
war hawks there – with IDF leading the charge.
"And, in effect, I wish for the success of Juan Guaido in his struggle with Maduro, and
I support American diplomatic and economic pressure on Maduro to step down. After all,
Venezuela is in our back yard with huge oil reserves."
So in effect, you wish for the success of the globalists in their relentless struggle with
the concept of national sovereignty and the rule of law, and you support American imperialist
efforts to overthrow yet another democratically elected government, no matter how many people
have to die in the process. After all, the victim country is relatively close and its huge
oil reserves make for a reasonable pretext.
Venezuela, the Deep State, and Subversion of the Trump Presidency
Also on UR, link to,
Bolton: We're Taking Venezuela's Oil
Yesterday, Trump's National Security Advisor John Bolton made the US position clear in a
FoxNews interview: Washington will overthrow the Venezuelan
RON PAUL LIBERTY REPORT
@Johnny Rico "How many barrels a day does Venezuela pump?"
Something like 50,000 barrels per day. And pumped is perhaps the wrong word more like mined.
Venezuelan oil is locked up in surface tar sands along the Orinoco River and of very low
quality, rich in metals such as vanadium which catalyze sulfur into sulfuric acid rotting out
engines and turbines if not cleaned up. It is actually sold as a emulsion with about 25%
water to get the stuff to flow. The Canadian tar sands now produce something like 500,000
barrels per day. Try driving through the Alberta tar sands to see mommie earth ravaged
without conscience and birds murdered en masse landing on their vast polluted effluent ponds
but then the loathsome colonial denizens of our Canadian satrap to the north don't care as
long as we let them have a couple of hockey teams and legal pot.
Whoever believed that Trump will drain the swamp must feel disappointed. The US foreign
policy is run by the swamp now, like it always was. The US uses full range of classical
gangster tactics against Venezuela: blackmail, theft of assets, threats, etc. The US tries to
instigate yet another "color revolution" to bring yet another puppet to power in yet another
country. The only difference is, Maduro resists. But that's the difference in the victim
country, not in DC.
@Tyrion 2 Venezuela is under US sanctions that substitute for a medieval siege, and
Venezuela's comprador ruling class are Wall Street loyalists, not nationalists. The US is
trying to starve the population of Venezuela and economically ruin them wherein a US puppet
gov't will enable predatory Americans to buy coveted resources on the cheap. This usurpation
of int'l law and criminality was pulled off by Obama-Nuland-Soros in Ukraine in 2014. The
majority of Venezuelan 'deplorables' who are bearing the brunt of US sanctions know well what
Uncle Sham's man-on-the-ground Guaido is up to, and have, hopefully, organized and armed
themselves with rifles to defend their lives and property from invaders.
@Amon It's possible that Venezuela will be another Libya. But I question whether the US
Imperialists could get away with weeks of saturation bombing on a country in the same
hemisphere, just to its south. I find it hard to believe that the rest of South America would
take this lying down. Then there's the presence of Russia and China, who both have
substantial investments in the country. Will they just sit on their hands too?
With its jungles and mountains, any US invasion would be more like Vietnam, I think. This
could be, and I hope it is, a Bridge Too Far for the Empire. Empires always eventually
overreach.
But, bbbuuuttt, I thought we were gonna be energy independent and export oil all over the
globe. What need have we of some heavy crude in Venezuela if this forecast is at hand? Just
hedging the BS ya know.
Maduro and Chavez are as socialist as I am capitalism fan. They are indeed populist dictators
and regime is still capitalistic. They just rely upon lumpens and military to hold onto
power. Things wound not change for the better and probably for worse if coup succeeds though.
Now, it is neither USA nor author's business to interfere into other countries affairs as
Americans quite obviously only make things worse and what if when USA finally kicks the
bucket as United country others start interfering in USA affairs ? I actually see it coming
considering demographic and cultural realities on the ground in USA. Once $usd is gone as
reserve currency the process as Gorbachiv stated would start.
Last week suddenly there was a coup d'etat in Venezuela,
actually the use of the term coup d'etat is incorrect. A coup occurs when the military
disposes the government and replaces it with a military government.
This has not yet occurred. It has not yet been successful, what is actually happening is
the beginning of a civil war, the outcome which is not clear.
The situation bears a certain similarity with the beginning of the Syrian civil War.
If it follows the Ukrainian scenario like what took place in 2014, then I would expect
some type of situation where foreign mercenaries are employed to create divisions in the
population, like firing on the opposition supporters. It is highly likely that some sort of
false flag incident will be use to fire up the situation.
If the military were to revolt and replace it with civilian rule it would be called a
pronunciamiento
Trump just congratulated self-proclaimed US puppet Guaido in Venezuela. So, he can no longer
pretend to be an innocent bystander: he showed himself to be a willing participant in the
criminal activities of the swamp.
Three notes on the bright side. One, the Empire is getting ever more reckless, no longer
bothers even with fig leaves. That looks like an overreach typical of empires in their death
throws. Two, Maduro, despite his obvious failings, appears to be prepared to defend his
country against banditry. So, maybe he is not just a piece of shit, like Yanuk in Ukraine.
We'll see soon enough. Three, Erdogan, who the same gangsters tried to overthrow not too long
ago, remembers that and voiced his support of Maduro in no uncertain terms, despite Turkey
being a NATO member.
"... That works out to be 320,000 barrels per day. Saudi production increased by 384,000 barrels per day during November. So Saudi's November increase was mostly just emptying their storage tanks. ..."
That works out to be 320,000 barrels per day. Saudi production increased by 384,000 barrels per day during November. So
Saudi's November increase was mostly just emptying their storage tanks.
And from looking at your chart, it looks like the 135,000 barrel per day increase in October was from the same source.
Saudi cuts start from a base of 10,633,000 barrels per day. That is almost their exact production in October. And your chart
shows Saudi inventories had been dropping for months. Saudi had obviously been preparing to "cut" production from a level of production
they reached by emptying their storage tanks.
Chinese crude oil imports up +9.9% higher in full year 2018 compared to FY 2017.
The month of December up +29.9% higher than Dec 2017
2019-01-14 OilyticsData
Another big crude import number from China (2nd consecutive month of imports above 10 MMB/D).
Low oil prices and startup of mega refineries such as RongSheng and Hengli is helping to keep
these numbers near record levels.(Source; GAC China)
Chart https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dw3fk2GXcAUZ_Vu.jpg
Oilytics https://twitter.com/OilyticsData
"... Good article. It accurately spells it out about the contempt and disrespect that America has of other countries, and the coercive tactics that America often applies to them. ..."
"... It really goes back to what Marine corps Major General Smedley Butler once reflected on, in 1933, about the U.S.,. He said: "I spent thirty-three years and four months in active military service as a member of this country's most agile military force, the Marine Corps. I served in all commissioned ranks from Second Lieutenant to Major-General. And during that period, I spent most of my time being a high class muscle-man for Big Business, for Wall Street and for the Bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism". Apparently, that is how other countries see us operating as too. ..."
For another example I turn to U.S. Ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, who just sent a
letter to both Uniper and BASF to stop work on the Nordstream 2 pipeline or else face
further U.S. sanctions.
The Bild report raised the ire of some German politicians in Berlin. Fabio De Masi, a top
Left Party MP, demanded that the government reprimand Grenell, saying
: "The US Ambassador seems to make an impression that he is a viceroy of the Washington
emperor.
This is the real face of Trumpian diplomacy. Stop acting in your own best interest or we'll
bankrupt you.
The situation at this point is pretty clear. While our military strength is formidable it is
not, however, a blank check to enforce political edicts anymore.
In a world where U.S. prosperity is dependent on the prosperity of the entire world,
threatening financial ruin is just as much of a bluff as threatening physical ruin.
And we're seeing that bluff being called a lot. Country after country are now simply showing
U.S. strongmen like Pompeo, Bolton, Mattis and even Trump himself, the door and there is little
to no real response from them.
Trump tried to scare Erdogan into submission with sanctions and a collapse of the lira
last year. When it didn't work, Erdogan knew where his allies were. He acted accordingly,
siding with Putin's energy security for Turkey rather than a mercurial U.S.
India did the same thing over the purchase of Russian S-400 missile defense systems. They
said some nice things, invited us to talks and then sent us packing without a deal.
Germany refuses to yield on Nordstream 2.
Qatar was the first to pull out of the Syrian conflict and then turned around and
negotiated a major exploration and development deal with Iran in the North Pars gas
field.
Even Japan is in constant talks with Russia about working out their differences
officially (again, against U.S. wishes) and sign a peace treaty. Japan needs Russian energy
badly and Putin is patient enough to wait Prime Minister Shinzo Abe out while calling out his
hypocrisy.
Good article. It accurately spells it out about the contempt and disrespect that America
has of other countries, and the coercive tactics that America often applies to them.
It
really goes back to what Marine corps Major General Smedley Butler once reflected on, in
1933, about the U.S.,. He said: "I spent thirty-three years and four months in active
military service as a member of this country's most agile military force, the Marine Corps. I
served in all commissioned ranks from Second Lieutenant to Major-General. And during that
period, I spent most of my time being a high class muscle-man for Big Business, for Wall
Street and for the Bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism".
Apparently, that is how other countries see us operating as too.
"... It makes sense for Saudi Arabia to focus its cuts on sales to the U.S., the only country that publishes detailed weekly data on oil imports and inventory levels -- traders watch the reports closely. This means the reductions will be evident more quickly than would similar cuts to other destinations, so a drop in American imports should have a much more immediate impact on price expectations. ..."
There's already less Saudi crude oil getting loaded for export.
The list of things that President Donald Trump criticizes in his tweets varies from one day to the next. He may soon have to direct
his ire to oil prices and the actions of his ally, Saudi Arabia, once again.
The desert kingdom is already making good on its promise to slash supply, and the initial evidence suggests that the biggest cut
is being made in deliveries to the U.S. On top of that, the price it charges American buyers of its crude has been raised to near
record levels for cargoes to be shipped in February. That could be bad news for a president who just celebrated falling gas prices.
The OPEC+ group of countries met in December and,
after Russia took the reins
, eventually agreed to cut supplies by 1.2 million barrels a day from January. For Saudi Arabia,
that meant cutting production to just over 10.3 million, but it pledged to go further -- oil minister Khalid Al-Falih told reporters
and analysts that it would be slashed to 10.2 million barrels a day in January.
The first job was to unwind the output surge made in November that had helped to deliver the price drop hailed by Trump. That
was done last month. Saudi production in December was back below the October baseline used for its (and most other countries') promised
cuts.
Saudi Cuts
Saudi crude production was cut to 10.65 million barrels a day in December from a record 11.07 million in November
That couldn't have been what Trump wanted, given what he tweeted the day before OPEC began its meeting in Vienna -- at the time,
crude prices were in the midst of their worst quarterly decline in four years.
Bloomberg's tracking of crude exports from
Saudi Arabia indicates that the biggest drop in flows from the kingdom was in the volume heading for the U.S. Shipments to ports
on the Atlantic, Gulf and West coasts fell by nearly 60 percent between November and December to just over 350,000 barrels a day.
That's the lowest since Bloomberg started tracking these flows in January 2017.
Cutting Shipments
The flow of Saudi crude heading to the U.S. slumped last month, as the kingdom slashed output
The size of the drop isn't set in stone -- a small number of ships signaling that they are heading for the Suez Canal or Singapore
could eventually go to the U.S. Even so, a decline in Saudi crude shipments to American ports should start to show up in lower deliveries
after about six weeks. By mid-February, U.S. imports of the kingdom's oil could fall to the lowest in more than 30 years, according
to data from the Department of Energy. The last time the flow from Saudi to the U.S. fell below half a million barrels a day was
in the mid-1980s, after the kingdom slashed its production by 80 percent over four years in an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to
prop up oil prices.
Slowing The Flow
Imports of Saudi crude into the U.S. could soon fall to their lowest in more than 30 years
It's not just this volume decline that is going to rile Trump. The price of that oil isn't going to make him happy either.
Saudi Arabia sets its crude prices a month in advance of it being loaded at its export terminals, so it has just published its
price list for February. In common with other producers, it does not set an outright price, but rather a differential to regional
benchmarks for each export grade and each market area.
Price differentials for U.S. buyers have been going up since August and for most grades are now close to record levels. Saudi
heavy crude, which is the closest alternative to dwindling supplies from Venezuela and Mexico, is the most expensive it's been since
2009 in relative terms.
Price Rises
Saudi crude prices for U.S. buyers have risen to near record levels against the regional benchmark
It makes sense for Saudi Arabia to focus its cuts on sales to the U.S., the only country that publishes detailed weekly data on
oil imports and inventory levels -- traders watch the reports closely. This means the reductions will be evident more quickly than
would similar cuts to other destinations, so a drop in American imports should have a much more immediate impact on price expectations.
There is no reason to doubt that Al-Falih will do what he said in Vienna. It was only after slashing exports to the U.S. in July
2017 that oil prices really began to recover, and Saudi Arabia will be hoping for a similar impact this time, too. But don't be surprised
if that also unleashes angry tweets from the U.S. president.
Julian Lee is an oil strategist for Bloomberg First Word. Previously he worked as a senior analyst at the Centre for Global Energy
Studies.
Things have been quite active in the Eastern Mediterranean lately, with Israel, Cyprus and
Greece pushing forward for the realization of the EastMed pipeline, a new gas conduit destined
to diversify Europe's natural gas sources and find a long-term reliable market outlet for all
the recent Mediterranean gas discoveries. The three sides have reached an agreement in late
November (roughly a year after signing the MoU) to lay the pipeline, the estimated cost of
which hovers around $7 billion (roughly the same as rival TurkStream's construction cost). Yet
behind the brave facade, it is still very early to talk about EastMed as a viable and
profitable project as it faces an uphill battle with traditionally difficult Levantine
geopolitics, as well as field geology.
The EastMed gas pipeline is expected to start some 170 kilometers off the southern coast of
Cyprus and reach Otranto on the Puglian coast of Italy via the island of Crete and the Greek
mainland. Since most of its subsea section is projected to be laid at depths of 3-3.5
kilometer, in case it is built it would become the deepest subsea gas pipeline, most probably
the longest, too, with an estimated length of 1900km. The countries involved proceed from the
premise that the pipeline's throughput capacity would be 20 BCM per year (706 BCf), although
previous estimates were within the 12-16 BCm per year interval. According to Yuval Steinitz,
the Israeli Energy Minister, the stakeholders would need a year to iron out all the remaining
administrative issues and 4-5 years to build the pipeline, meaning it could come onstream not
before 2025.
The EastMed gas pipeline is expected to start some 170 kilometers off the southern coast
of Cyprus and reach Otranto on the Puglian coast of Italy via the island of Crete and the
Greek mainland.
Cyprus,Crete,Greece, Italy....
Yes, very stable EU supply line going through the most stable countries in the EU.
Yeah, I'm having trouble with the sub sea depth numbers too, despite the route cuts the
conflicts to a half a dozen from an infinite number.
Intuitively, shipping LNG offers comparable delivery price albeit at lower volumes,and can
be done off shore.
Even here in bucolic Pensyltucky, delivery of natty to market is limited by a lack of
piping infrastructure, limiting the gas boom. It gives the tree huggers time to throttle the
business. Figuring that the political climate and costs are going to get better with time
passing is foolish.
Also considered is price, still cheap, cheap, cheap.
Our local natty supplier just applied for, and received a price reduction, effective next
fall.
Since most of its subsea section is projected to be laid at depths of 3-3.5 kilometer,
in case it is built it would become the deepest subsea gas pipeline, most probably the
longest, too...
oh yeah bitchez. nothing could possibly go wrong with that plan. /s
none has even discovered the goods yet ... and we are told we have to go to war about
building some (((PIPELINES))) on something to be discovered in the future ... if ever
....
as Abba Waterloo song said the history books on the shelf just keeps repeating itself ...
that is why is not that difficult to see through the BS ...
World War I we are told was over some archiduke being killed by some extremist ...as a
result 1/3 of the Serb nation was killed ...
"... Senate Resolution on December 19, 2019 which calls for "a prompt multinational freedom of navigation operation in the Black Sea and urging the cancellation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline ..."
"... Calling for a prompt multinational freedom of navigation operation in the Black Sea and urging the cancellation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. ..."
Senator Ron Johnson (R- Wis) and Richard Durban (D-Ill) and 39 of their colleagues introduced a Senate Resolution on December
19, 2019 which calls for "a prompt multinational freedom of navigation operation in the Black Sea and urging the cancellation of
the Nord Stream 2 pipeline" as shown
here :
Here is a list of co-sponsors of the resolution:
Sen. James Inhofe (R-Ok.), chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee; Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), ranking member of the
Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Europe and Regional Security Cooperation; and Sens. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), Ben Cardin
(D-Md.), Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Cory Gardner (R-Colo.), Christopher Coons (D-Del.), James Risch (R-Idaho),
Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Ben Sasse (R-Neb.),
Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.), John Boozman (R-Ark.), John Hoeven (R-N.D.), Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.),
Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), Doug Jones (D-Ala.), Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.), Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.),
Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Gary Peters (D-Mich.), Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), Roger Wicker
(R-Miss.), John Cornyn (R-Texas), John Thune (R-S.D.), Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), Rob Portman (R-Ohio), Mitch
McConnell (R-Ky.), and Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.).
Here is the resolution (currently unnumbered) in its entirety:
Calling for a prompt multinational freedom of navigation operation in the Black Sea and urging the cancellation of the
Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
... ... ...
Whereas the United States has important national interests in the Black Sea region, including the security
of three NATO littoral states, the promotion of European energy market diversification by ensuring unfettered European access
to energy exporters in the Caucuses and central Asia, and combatting use of the region by smugglers as a conduit for trafficking
in persons, narcotics, and arms;
Whereas the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is a proposed underwater natural gas pipeline project that would provide
an additional 55,000,000,000 cubic meters of pipeline capacity from the Russian Federation to the Federal Republic of Germany
through the Baltic Sea;
Whereas the Russian Federation's state-owned oil and gas company, Gazprom, is the sole shareholder of the Nord
Stream 2 project;
Whereas, in 2017, there was spare capacity of approximately 55,000,000,000 cubic meters in the Ukrainian gas
transit system;
Whereas Gazprom cut off natural gas exports to Europe via Ukraine in 2006, and again in 2009, over supply and
pricing disputes with Ukraine's state-owned oil and gas company, Naftogaz;
Whereas transit of Russian natural gas to Europe via Ukraine declined precipitously after the completion of
Nord Stream 1 in 2011, falling from 80 percent to between 40 and 50 percent of Russia's total exports to Europe;
Whereas, in 2017, Russian gas accounted for 37 percent of Europe's natural gas imports, an increase of
5 percent over 2016;
Whereas, on December 12, 2018, the European Parliament overwhelmingly passed a resolution condemning both the
Russian Federation's aggression in the Kerch Strait and the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline; and
Whereas, on December 11, 2018, the United States House of Representatives passed a resolution calling upon
the European
Union to reject the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and urging the President to use all available means to promote energy policies in
Europe that reduce European reliance on Russian energy exports:
... ... ...
(9) applauds and concurs with the European 2 Parliament's December 12, 2018, resolution condemning Russian aggression in the
Kerch Strait and
the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, calling for the pipeline's cancellation due to its threat to European energy security, and calling
on the Russian Federation to
7 guarantee freedom of navigation in the Kerch Strait;
and
(10) urges the President to continue working with Congress and our allies to ensure the appropriate policies to deter the Russian
Federation from further aggression.
Fortunately, these two neocons can make all the proclamations they want but without President Trump's support it's all just
words; neocon virtue signalling. And of course President Trump won't support what they're doing because he campaigned on and governs
as an anti-war president.
Ron Johnson is a Bushie neocon who actively supported the neocon ¡Jebe! (Please Clap) Bush while Durbin is a Hillary Clinton
neocon who actively supported that drunken, corrupt, warmongering shrew.
Thank all that's holy that we have a genuine anti-war POTUS in office and not either of those two neocons, both of whom were
utterly in the pockets of defense contractors.
Thanks for your research on relevant naval law. The Ukrainian vessel is reported to have violated the ongoing protocol by failing
to take on a Russian pilot as it transited the strait and an important bridge could potentially have been attacked by those vessels.
This was a provocation by Ukraine that seems to have its desired effect on the U.S. Senate. For essential background on the Ukrainian
civil war, I recommend reading Stephen F. Cohen's article in the Nation in 2014, titled "Kiev's atrocities and the Silence of
the Hawks." https://www.thenation.com/article/kievs-atrocities-and-silence-hawks/
"... Ever since US Crude Oil peaked its production in 1970, the US has known that at some point the oil majors would have their profitability damaged, "assets" downgraded, and borrowing capacity destroyed. At this point their shares would become worthless and they would become bankrupt. The contagion from this would spread to transport businesses, plastics manufacture, herbicides and pesticide production and a total collapse of Industrial Civilisation. ..."
@4 "For the life of me I cannot figure why Americans want a war/conflict with
Russia."
Ever since US Crude Oil peaked its production in 1970, the US has known that at some
point the oil majors would have their profitability damaged, "assets" downgraded, and
borrowing capacity destroyed. At this point their shares would become worthless and they
would become bankrupt. The contagion from this would spread to transport businesses, plastics
manufacture, herbicides and pesticide production and a total collapse of Industrial
Civilisation.
In anticipation of increasing Crude Oil imports, Nixon stopped the convertibility of
Dollars into Gold, thus making the Dollar entirely fiat, allowing them to print as much of
the currency as they needed.
They also began a system of obscuring oil production data, involving the DoE's EIA and the
OECD's IEA, by inventing an ever-increasing category of Undiscovered Oilfields in their
predictions, and combining Crude Oil and Condensate (from gas fields) into one category (C+C)
as if they were the same thing. As well the support of the ethanol-from-corn industry began,
even though it was uneconomic. The Global Warming problem had to be debunked, despite its
sound scientific basis. Energy-intensive manufacturing work was off-shored to cheap
labour+energy countries, and Just-in-Time delivery systems were honed.
In 2004 the price of Crude Oil rose from $28 /barrel up to $143 /b in mid-2008. This
demonstrated that there is a limit to how much business can pay for oil (around $100 /b).
Fracking became marginally economic at these prices, but the frackers never made a profit as
over-production meant prices fell to about $60 /b. The Government encourages this destructive
industry despite the fact it doesn't make any money, because the alternative is the end of
Industrial Civilisation.
Eventually though, there must come a time when there is not enough oil to power all the
cars and trucks, bulldozers, farm tractors, airplanes and ships, as well as manufacture all
the wind turbines and solar panels and electric vehicles, as well as the upgraded
transmission grid. At that point, the game will be up, and it will be time for WW3. So we
need to line up some really big enemies, and develop lots of reasons to hate them.
Thus you see the demonisation of Russia, China, Iran and Venezuela for reasons that don't
make sense from a normal perspective.
It is partially tied direct to the economy of the warmongers as trillions of dollars of
new cold war slop is laying on the ground awaiting the MICC hogs. American hegemony is
primarily about stealing the natural resources of helpless countries. Now in control of all
the weak ones, it is time to move to the really big prize: The massive resources of Russia.
They (US and their European Lackeys) thought this was a slam dunk when Yeltsin, in his
drunken stupors, was literally giving Russia to invading capitalist. Enter Putin, stopped the
looting .........connect the dots.
Russia is not as desperate for higher oil prices as is Saudi Arabia. There are a few reasons
for this. One of the key reasons is that the Russian currency is flexible, so it weakens when
oil prices fall. That cushions the blow during a downturn, allowing Russian oil companies to
pay expenses in weaker rubles while still taking in U.S. dollars for oil sales. Second, tax
payments for Russian oil companies are structured in such a way that their tax burden is
lighter with lower oil prices.
Saudi Arabia needs oil prices at roughly $84 per barrel for its
budget to breakeven.
... ... ...
Igor Sechin, the head of Russia's state-owned Rosneft, said that oil prices "should have
stabilized, because everyone was supposed to be scared" by the enormous OPEC+ production cuts.
"But nobody was scared," he said, according to Bloomberg. He blamed the Federal Reserve's rate
tightening for injecting volatility into the oil market, because traders have sold off
speculative positions in the face of higher interest rates.
...
Novak
offered the market some assurances that the OPEC+ coalition would step in to stabilize the
market if the situation deteriorates, suggesting that OPEC+ has the ability to call an
extraordinary meeting. He
told reporters on Thursday that the market still faces a lot of unknowns. "All these
uncertainties, which are now on the market: how China will behave, how India will behave...
trade wars and unpredictability on the part of the U.S. administration... those are defining
factors for price volatility," Novak said.
Nevertheless, Novak predicted the 1.2 mb/d cuts announced in Vienna would be sufficient.
Some analysts echo Novak's sentiment that, despite the current panic in the market, the cuts
should be sufficient. "We are looking at oil prices heading towards $70 to $80 quite a recovery
in 2019. That's really predicated on the thought that first of all, OPEC still is here. And I
think that the market is underestimating that they are going to cut supply by 1.2 mb/d,"
Dominic Schnider of UBS Wealth Management told CNBC
. "And demand looks healthy so we might find ourselves into 2019 in a situation where the
market is actually tight."
Don't ,forget John Bolton's late October visit to Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia where he
pragmatically refined US priorities for each country including the indication for sanction
waving in respect of South Stream energy. Bolton's tour followed on from a visit to Moscow.
DJT had a 50 minute private meeting with Erdogan at the G20 followed by a further extended
phone call on the 14th December and the final call on the 21st immediately prior to the
Policy announcement. This marks considered policy and unfortunately for the Rojave Kurds
their interest were found wanting in the balance. There will be complementary side deals
involving Iran, Assad, Putin and Netanyahu. There then remains Idlib.
https://www.dailysabah.com/...
https://www.tccb.gov.tr/en/...
https://www.tccb.gov.tr/en/...
Chinese refineries that used to purchase U.S. oil regularly said they had not resumed buying
due to uncertainty over the outlook for trade relations between Washington and Beijing, as well
as rising freight costs and poor profit-margins for refining in the region.
Costs for shipping U.S. crude to Asia on a supertanker are triple those for Middle eastern
oil, data on Refinitiv Eikon showed.
A senior official with a state oil refinery said his plant had stopped buying U.S. oil from
October and had not booked any cargoes for delivery in the first quarter.
"Because of the great policy uncertainty earlier on, plants have actually readjusted back to
using alternatives to U.S. oil ... they just widened our supply options," he said.
He added that his plant had shifted to replacements such as North Sea Forties crude,
Australian condensate and oil from Russia.
"Maybe teapots will take some cargoes, but the volume will be very limited," said a second
Chinese oil executive, referring to independent refiners. The sources declined to be named
because of company policy.
A sharp souring in Asian benchmark refining margins has also curbed overall demand for crude
in recent months, sources said.
Despite the impasse on U.S. crude purchases, China's crude imports could top a record 45
million tonnes (10.6 million barrels per day) in December from all regions, said Refinitiv
senior oil analyst Mark Tay.
Russia is set to remain the biggest supplier at 7 million tonnes in December, with Saudi
Arabia second at 5.7-6.7 million tonnes, he said.
19 hours ago This is an
economic/political tight rope for both countries. China is the largest auto market in the
world with numerous manufacturers located inside its borders. Apple sales will disappoint
inside China after Meng's arrest over Iran sanctions (Huawei is a world heavy weight in terms
of sales), and this has already begun inside China due to national pride. Canada has already
seen one trade agreement postponed over her detention. US firm on the main have already
issued orders to not have key employees travel to their Chinese plants unless absolutely
necessary for fear of retaliation. Brussels is actively working on a plan to bypass US
Iranian sanctions, which are deeply unpopular in Europe.
The key to this solution might be in automotive. Oil is possibly on the endangered bargaining
list. Russia is a key trading partner (for years) with China and, along with Saudi Arabia and
Iran (or even without Iran) will be able to supply their needs. Our agricultural sector,
particularly in soybeans, has been hit hard, forcing the US govt. into farm subsidies. Brazil
just recorded a record harvest in soybeans. The US could counter with lifting Meng from
arrest in return for an agricultural break, but those negotiations won't make the mainstream
news. Personally, I think her arrest was a very ill-thought move on the part of law
enforcement, as the benefits don't even begin to outweigh the massive retaliation to US firms
operating inside their borders. It is almost akin to arresting Tim Cook of Apple or Apple's
CFO. You don't kill a bug with a sledge hammer.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on Saturday said US sanctions will have no
impact on the policies of the Islamic republic at home or abroad.
"It is obvious that we are facing pressure by the US sanctions. But will that lead to a
change in policy? I can assure you it won't," Zarif told the Doha Forum policy conference in
Qatar.
"If there is an art we have perfected in Iran and can teach to others for a price, it is
the art of evading sanctions," he added.
Sanctions typically fail to change regime behavior, and they are even more likely to fail if
there is no practical way for the targeted regime to get out from under sanctions short of
surrender. The more importance that a regime places on the policies that the outside government
wants to change, the greater the likelihood of failure will be. When the outside government's
goals threaten the regime's security or even its very survival, there is no question of making
a deal.
Because the Trump administration is pursuing regime change in all but name, there is no
chance that Iran will yield to U.S. pressure. The administration's demands are so ambitious and
excessive that no self-respecting state could agree to them without giving up its sovereignty
and independence. It should be clear by now that pressure and coercion inspire defiance and
intransigence. If the U.S. wants to see changes in Iranian international behavior, it would
need to provide assurances and incentives that make taking that risk worth their while. Since
this administration has made a point of reneging on commitments already made to Iran, there are
no assurances that it could make that the Iranian government could trust, and the
administration is allergic to offering any incentives to its negotiating partners for fear of
appearing "weak."
Besides that, Saudi Arabia requires the organization to maintain a high level of oil
production due to pressure coming from
Washington to achieve a very low cost per barrel of oil. The US energy strategy targets
Iranian and Russian revenue from oil exports, but it also aims to give the US a speedy economic
boost. Trump often talks about the price of oil falling as his personal victory. The US
imports
about 10 million barrels of oil a day, which is why Trump wrongly believes that a decrease in
the cost per barrel could favor a boost to the US economy. The economic reality shows a strong
correlation
between the price of oil and the financial growth of a country, with low prices of crude oil
often synonymous of a slowing down in the economy.
It must be remembered that to keep oil prices high, OPEC countries are required to maintain
a high rate of production, doubling the damage to themselves. Firstly, they take less income
than expected and, secondly, they deplete their oil reserves to favor the strategy imposed by
Saudi Arabia on OPEC to please the White House. It is clearly a strategy that for a country
like Qatar (and perhaps Venezuela and Iran in the near future) makes little sense, given the
diplomatic and commercial rupture with Riyadh stemming from
tensions between the Gulf countries.
In contrast, the OPEC+ organization, which also includes other countries like the Russian
Federation, Mexico and Kazakhstan, seems to now to determine oil and its cost per barrel. At
the moment, OPEC and Russia have agreed to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day,
contradicting Trump's desire for high oil output.
With this last choice Qatar sends a clear signal to the region and to traditional allies,
moving to the side of OPEC+ and bringing its interests closer in line with those of the Russian
Federation and its all-encompassing oil and gas strategy, two sectors in which Qatar and Russia
dominate market share.
In addition, Russia and Qatar's global strategy also brings together and includes partners
like Turkey (a future
energy hub connecting east and west as well as north and south) and Venezuela. In this
sense, the meeting between
Maduro and Erdogan seems to be a prelude to further reorganization of OPEC and its members.
It's crazy to think of all of the natural gas burned off by the world's oil producers. I
think of those oil platforms that have a huge burning flame on top. This is the kind of ****
that reminds us that the people who control the world care not for the people who live here.
Can't make a buck from it? ******* burn it.
Consider though that those oil producers are only in it for the money; it's not an
avocation with them. I imagine if there was a way to salvage the natural gas, it would be
done. Mo Muny would dictate it.
This could be the beggining of a level 5 popcorn event. It started a year or two ago and
when I saw it everybody laughed. Well look at it now. Saudi wants to defect. They have had
nothing but problems with the House of Sodomy for quite some time now.
If this leads to war in the Persian Gulf Edgar Cayce called it. The empire will burn that
place down before losing it. They may fail but something is going to go down.
Are the Sauds still full heartedly pushing the Zionist mission in Yemen?
As an Iranian-American I have been waiting for something big to happen with Iran. I am
really tired of waiting. I hope that Iran will grow some balls and fight the coalition. I
know that there are 80 million lives in danger, including my mom going back to Iran for a
short term. But this has been like a long torture and unending nightmare.
There is no multipolarity yet, but a bipolar hype of the world dominance run by US and its
vassals. An awakening will be harsh, when these realize their emperor goes naked.
Trump lost control of foreign policy, when he appointed Pompeo. US voters might elect Hillary with the same effect on foreign policy
as Pompeo.
Notable quotes:
"... It is to Trump's disgrace that he chose Pompeo and the abominable Bolton. At least Trump admits the ME invasions are really about Israel. ..."
"... Energy dominance, lebensraum for Israel and destroying the current Iran are all objectives that fit into one neat package. Those plans look to be coming apart at the moment so it remains to be seen how fanatical Trump is on Israel and MAGA. MAGA as US was at the collapse of the Soviet Union. ..."
"... As for pulling out of the Middle East Bibi must have had a good laugh. Remember when he said he wanted out of Syria. My money is on the US to be in Yemen before too long to protect them from the Saudis (humanitarian) and Iranian backed Houthis, while in reality it will be to secure the enormous oil fields in the North. ..."
"... The importance of oil is not to supply US markets its to deny it to enemies and control oil prices in order to feed international finance/IMF. ..."
Pompeo is a Deep State Israel-firster with a nasty neocon agenda. It is to Trump's disgrace that he chose Pompeo and the abominable
Bolton. At least Trump admits the ME invasions are really about Israel.
Pompeo is a Deep State Israel-firster with a nasty neocon agenda. It is to Trump's disgrace that he chose Pompeo and
the abominable Bolton. At least Trump admits the ME invasions are really about Israel.
Trump, Israel and the Sawdi's. US no longer needs middle east oil for strategic supply. Trump is doing away with the petro-dollar
as that scam has run its course and maintenance is higher than returns. Saudi and other middle east oil is required for global
energy dominance.
Energy dominance, lebensraum for Israel and destroying the current Iran are all objectives that fit into one neat package.
Those plans look to be coming apart at the moment so it remains to be seen how fanatical Trump is on Israel and MAGA. MAGA as
US was at the collapse of the Soviet Union.
As for pulling out of the Middle East Bibi must have had a good laugh. Remember when he said he wanted out of Syria. My money
is on the US to be in Yemen before too long to protect them from the Saudis (humanitarian) and Iranian backed Houthis, while in
reality it will be to secure the enormous oil fields in the North.
Perhaps this was what the Khashoggi trap was all about. The importance of oil is not to supply US markets its to deny it
to enemies and control oil prices in order to feed international finance/IMF.
"... Trump won't fire his son-in-law, so if Jared doesn't have the decency to resign on his own, he may well be responsible for Trump's downfall in addition to his own. Trump's silly daughter, Ivanka, needs to go to. ..."
"... Time for Bolton to send for the clairvoyant Theresa May who has managed to accuse Russia, and Mr. Putin personally, in the Skripals' poisoning n the absence of any evidence ..."
Comment section (David Wooten): "According to the crown prince himself, Trump's [Jewish]
son-in-law gave him a secret list of his enemies -- the ones like Al Aweed who were
tortured and shaken down for cash. Khashoggi might even have been on that list.
One or more of the tortured ones likely tipped off Erdogan, which is why Turkey only
needed to enter the consulate, retrieve the recorded audio device they planted, and walk out
with the evidence. Turkey also has evidence that puts MbS' personal doctor and other staff
arriving in Turkey at convenient times to do the job -- and probably more. Khashoggi was
anything but a nice person but Trump cannot say that or he'll likely be accused of
involvement in his murder.
Dissociation is made far more difficult by the fact that Jared is a long time friend of
Netanyahu who, like Jared, hasbefriended MbS .
Trump won't fire his son-in-law, so if Jared doesn't have the decency to resign on his
own, he may well be responsible for Trump's downfall in addition to his own. Trump's silly
daughter, Ivanka, needs to go to.
Were it not for the Khashoggi affair, fewer Republican seats would have been lost in the
election."
-- Time for Bolton to send for the clairvoyant Theresa May who has managed to accuse
Russia, and Mr. Putin personally, in the Skripals' poisoning n the absence of any
evidence .
These people -- Bolton, May, Gavin Williamson and likes -- are a cross of the ever-eager
whores and petty brainless thieves. To expose themselves as the willing participants in the
ZUSA-conducted farce requires a complete lack of integrity.
Of course, there is no way to indict the journalist's murderers since the principal
murderer is a personal friend of Netanyahu and Jared.
Jump, Justice, jump, as high as ordered by the "chosen."
By the way, why do we hear nothing about Seth Rich who was murdered in the most surveilled
city of the US?
@annamaria A 1st
grader can see that MbS was behind the murder of Kashoggi.
Trump won't fire his son-in-law, so if Jared doesn't have the decency to resign on his
own, he may well be responsible for Trump's downfall in addition to his own. Trump's silly
daughter, Ivanka, needs to go to.
I've been hoping for this since they moved to Washington with 'big daddy'.
@Anon " crappy
bedtime reading the woolyheadedness "
Hey, Anon[436], is this how your parents have been treating you? My condolences.
If you feel that you succeeded with your "see, a squirrel" tactics of taking attention
from the zionists' dirty and amoral attempts at coverup of the murder of the journalists
Khashoggi, which was accomplished on the orders of the clown prince (the dear friend of Bibi
& Jared), you are for a disappointment.
One more time for you, Anon[436]: the firm evidence of MbS involvement in the murder of
Khashoggi contrasts with no evidence of the alleged poisoning of Skripals by
Russian government.
The zionists have been showing an amazing tolerance towards the clown prince the murderer
because zionists need the clown prince for the implementation of Oded Yinon Plan for Eretz
Israel.
The stinky Skripals' affair involves harsh economic actions imposed on the RF in the
absence of any evidence , as compared to no sanctions in response to the actual murder
of Khashoggi, which involved MbS according to the availableevidence . Thanks
to the zionists friendship with the clown prince, the firm evidence of Khashoggi murder is of
no importance. What else could be expected from the "most moral" Bibi & Kushner and the
treasonous Bolton.
The stinky Skripals' affair involves harsh economic actions imposed on the RF in the
absence of any evidence, as compared to no sanctions in response to the actual murder of
Khashoggi, which involved MbS according to the available evidence. Thanks to the zionists
friendship with the clown prince, the firm evidence of Khashoggi murder is of no
importance. What else could be expected from the "most moral" Bibi & Kushner and the
treasonous Bolton.
This article is from May 2018 but it read as if it was written yesterday.
Notable quotes:
"... He estimates that sanctions will cut Iran's exports by up to 500,000 barrels a day later this year. "It could well be much more in 2019," he said. ..."
"U.S. political pressure is clearly a dominant factor at this OPEC meeting, limiting the scope of Saudi actions to rebalance the
market," said Gary Ross, chief executive of Black Gold Investors and a veteran OPEC watcher.
channelnewsasia.com 10 May 2018
Donald Trump could hardly have chosen a more treacherous economic moment to tear up the "decaying and rotten deal" with Iran.
The world crude market is already tightening very fast. Joint production curbs by Opec and Russia have cleared the four-year glut
of oil. There is no longer an ample safety buffer against supply shocks. The geopolitical "premium" on prices has returned. Tensions
run high:
The Maduro regime in Venezuela is entering its last agonies, and the country's oil industry is imploding. North America has run
into an infrastructure crunch. There are not yet enough pipelines to keep pace with shale oil output from the Permian Basin of west
Texas, and it is much the same story in the Alberta tar sands. The prospect of losing several hundred thousand barrels a day of Iranian
oil exports would not have mattered much a year ago. It certainly matters now.
World leaders respond to President Trump's move to reimpose economic sanctions on Iran while pulling the United States out of
the international agreement aimed at stopping Tehran from obtaining a nuclear bomb.
Oil price shock is looming
It is the confluence of simmering political crises in so many places that has driven Brent crude to $US77 a barrel, up 60 per
cent since last June. "We believe an oil price shock is looming as early as 2019 as several elements combine to form a 'perfect storm',"
said Westbeck Capital. It predicts $US100 crude in short order, with $US150 coming into sight as the world faces a crunch all too
reminiscent of July 2008. The fund warns that the investment collapse since 2014 is about to deliver its sting. Declining fields
are not being replaced. Output from conventional projects has until now been rising but will fall precipitously by 1.5 million barrels
a day next year. By then global spare capacity will be down to a lethally thin 1 per cent. US shale cannot plug the gap. "The mantra
after 2014 of lower for longer has lulled oil analysts into a torpor," Westbeck said. Needless to say, a spike to $US150 would precipitate
a global recession.
The US might hope to weather such a traumatic episode now that it is the world's biggest oil producer but it would be fatal for oil-starved
Europe. Such a scenario would test the unreformed euro to destruction. Britain, France and Germany may earnestly wish to preserve
the Iran deal but they can do little against US financial hegemony and the ferocity of "secondary sanctions". The US measures cover
shipping, insurance, and the gamut of financial and logistical support for Iran's oil industry.
In the end, there are infinitely greater matters at stake than barrels of oil.
Any European or Asian company that falls foul of this will be shut out of the US capital markets and dollarised international payments
system. The EU has talked of
beefing up the 1996 Blocking Regulation used to shield European companies from extraterritorial US sanctions against Libya. But
this is just bluster. No European company with operations in the US would dare flout the US Treasury. "A choice for corporate Europe
between the US and Iran is unequivocally going to fall the way of the US," said Richard Robinson from Ashburton Global Energy Fund.
Rise in oil prices turns malign
He said Europe will have to slash its imports from Iran by 60 per cent because groups such as ENI or Total will refuse to ship
the oil, whatever the strategic policy of the EU purports to be. This dooms the nuclear deal (JCPOA) since Iran will not abide by
the terms if the EU cannot deliver on its rhetoric, let alone come through with the $US200 billion ($251 billion) of foreign investment
coveted by Tehran.
David Fyfe from oil traders Gunvor said we do not yet have enough details from Washington to judge how quickly companies will
have to act. He estimates that sanctions will cut Iran's exports by up to 500,000 barrels a day later this year. "It could well
be much more in 2019," he said.
Late last year it was still possible to view rising oil prices as benign, the result of a booming world economy. This year it
has turned malign. Global growth has rolled over. The broad IHS index of raw materials has been falling since February.
Europe's catch-up spurt fizzled out in the first quarter. Japan's GDP probably contracted. The higher oil price is itself part
of the cause.
$US500 billion extra 'tax'
Even at current levels, it acts as an extra $US500 billion "tax" this year for consumers in Asia, Europe and America. Not all
of the windfall enjoyed by the petro-powers is recycled quickly back into global spending.
One cause of the slowdown is the credit squeeze in China, which is ineluctably feeding through into the real economy with a delay.
Proxy indicators suggest that true growth has fallen below 5 per cent.
My own view is that monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve - and declining stimulus from the European Central Bank - is
doing more damage than widely presumed.
Higher US interest rates are pushing up borrowing costs for much of the world. Three-month dollar Libor rates used to price $US9
trillion of global contracts have risen 76 basis points since January.
The Fed is shrinking its balance sheet, draining international dollar liquidity at a quickening pace. If the Fed is not careful,
it will tip the US economy into a stall.
Ominously, we are seeing the first signs of a US dollar rally, tantamount to a "short squeeze" on Turkey, Argentina and Indonesia,
among other emerging market debtors.
Toxic combination
The combination of a slowing economy and an oil supply shock is toxic, even if the "energy intensity" of world GDP is now half
the level of 30 years ago.
Opec and Russia can of course lift their output cap at any time, though that alone will not restore the full 1.8m barrels a day
of original curbs. Venezuela is now in unstoppable free-fall.
The Saudis have pledged to uphold the "stability of oil markets" and to help "mitigate the impact of any potential supply shortages".
Kuwait and Abu Dhabi could add a little. Yet cyclical forces may be moving even beyond their control.
In the end, there are infinitely greater matters at stake than barrels of oil. Trump is throwing US power behind Saudi Arabia
in the epic Sunni-Shia battle for dominance over the Middle East, and behind Israel in its separate battle with Iran.
What can go wrong?
Both conflicts are on a hair trigger. Israel attacked an Iranian air base in Syria last month and killed
seven revolutionary guards. This is a dangerous escalation from proxy conflict to direct hostilities. The JCPOA nuclear deal may
be all that restrains the Iranian side from lashing out.
Saudi Arabia's impetuous young leader Mohammad bin Salman is itching to settle the score of all scores with Iran, the Iranian
revolutionary guard are in turn itching to launch a one-year dash for nuclear weapons, and Trump is itching for regime change. What
can go wrong?
"... Everyone knows it's the US presence in the Middle East which creates terrorists, both as proxies of and in resistance to the US imperial presence (and often one and then the other). So reading Orwellian language, Pompeo is saying the US wants to maximize Islamic terrorism in order to provide a pretext for creeping totalitarianism at home and abroad. ..."
"... The real reason is to maintain the petrodollar system, but there seems to be a conspiracy of silence never to mention it among both supporters and opponents of Trump. ..."
"... everyone knows why the usa is in the middle east.. to support the war industry, which is heavily tied to the financial industry.. up is down and down is up.. that is why the usa is great friends with ksa and israel and a sworn enemy of iran... what they don't say is they are a sworn enemy of humanity and the thought that the world can continue with their ongoing madness... ..."
"... The importance of oil is not to supply US markets its to deny it to enemies and control oil prices in order to feed international finance/IMF ..."
Trump also floated the idea of removing U.S. troops from the Middle East, citing the lower price of oil as a reason to withdraw.
"Now, are we going to stay in that part of the world? One reason to is Israel ," Trump said. "Oil is becoming less and less
of a reason because we're producing more oil now than we've ever produced. So, you know, all of a sudden it gets to a point
where you don't have to stay there."
It is only Israel, it is no longer the oil, says Trump. But the nuclear armed Israel does not need U.S. troops for its protection.
And if it is no longer the oil, why is the U.S. defending the Saudis?
Trump's Secretary of State Mike Pompeo disagrees with his boss. In a Wall Street journal op-ed today he claims that
The U.S.-Saudi Partnership
Is Vital because it includes much more then oil:
[D]egrading U.S.-Saudi ties would be a grave mistake for the national security of the U.S. and its allies.
The kingdom is a powerful force for stability in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia is working to secure Iraq's fragile democracy
and keep Baghdad tethered to the West's interests, not Tehran's. Riyadh is helping manage the flood of refugees fleeing Syria's
civil war by working with host countries, cooperating closely with Egypt, and establishing stronger ties with Israel. Saudi
Arabia has also contributed millions of dollars to the U.S.-led effort to fight Islamic State and other terrorist organizations.
Saudi oil production and economic stability are keys to regional prosperity and global energy security.
Where and when please has Saudi Arabia "managed the flood of refugees fleeing Syria's civil war". Was that when it
emptied its jails of violent criminals and sent them to wage jihad against the Syrian people? That indeed 'managed' to push
millions to flee from their homes.
Saudi Arabia might be many things but "a powerful force for stability" it is not. Just ask 18 million Yemenis who, after years
of Saudi bombardment, are near to death for lack of
food .
Pompeo's work for the Saudi dictator continued today with a Senate briefing on Yemen. The Senators will soon vote on a resolution
to end the U.S. support for the war. In his prepared remarks Pompeo wrote:
The suffering in Yemen grieves me, but if the United States of America was not involved in Yemen, it would be a hell of a lot
worse.
What could be worse than a famine that threatens two third of the population?
If the U.S. and Britain would not support the Saudis and Emirates the war would end within a day or two. The Saudi and UAE
planes are maintained by U.S. and British specialists. The Saudis still
seek 102 more U.S. military personal to
take care of their planes. It would be easy for the U.S. to stop such recruiting of its veterans.
It is the U.S. that
holds up an already
watered down UN Security Council resolution that calls for a ceasefire in Yemen:
The reason for the delay continues to be a White House worry about angering Saudi Arabia, which strongly opposes the resolution,
multiple sources say. CNN reported earlier this month that the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, "threw a fit" when
presented with an early draft of the document, leading to a delay and further discussions among Western allies on the matter.
There is really nothing in Trump's list on which the Saudis consistently followed through. His alliance with MbS brought him
no gain and a lot of trouble.
Trump protected MbS from the consequences of murdering Jamal Khashoggi. He hoped to gain leverage with that. But that is not
how MbS sees it. He now knows that Trump will not confront him no matter what he does. If MbS "threws a fit" over a UN Security
Council resolution, the U.S. will drop it. When he launches his next 'adventure', the U.S. will again cover his back. Is this
the way a super power is supposed to handle a client state?
If Trump's instincts really tell him that U.S. troops should be removed from the Middle East and Afghanistan, something I doubt,
he should follow them. Support for the Saudi war on Yemen will not help to achieve that. Pandering to MbS is not MAGA.
Posted by b on November 28, 2018 at 03:12 PM |
Permalink
Comments Pompeo: "Saudi Arabia has also contributed millions of dollars to the U.S.-led effort to fight Islamic State and other
terrorist organizations."
Everyone knows it's the US presence in the Middle East which creates terrorists, both as proxies of and in resistance to
the US imperial presence (and often one and then the other). So reading Orwellian language, Pompeo is saying the US wants to maximize
Islamic terrorism in order to provide a pretext for creeping totalitarianism at home and abroad.
The real reason is to maintain the petrodollar system, but there seems to be a conspiracy of silence never to mention it among
both supporters and opponents of Trump.
There is really nothing in Trump's list on which the Saudis consistently followed through. His alliance with MbS brought him
no gain and a lot of trouble.
He did get to fondle the orb - although fuck knows what weirdness was really going on there.
thanks b... pompeo is a very bad liar... in fact - everything he says is about exactly the opposite, but bottom line is he is
a bad liar as he is thoroughly unconvincing..
everyone knows why the usa is in the middle east.. to support the war industry, which is heavily tied to the financial
industry.. up is down and down is up.. that is why the usa is great friends with ksa and israel and a sworn enemy of iran... what
they don't say is they are a sworn enemy of humanity and the thought that the world can continue with their ongoing madness...
oh, but don't forget to vote, LOLOL.... no wonder so many are strung out on drugs, and the pharma industry... opening up to
the msm is opening oneself up to the world george orwell described many years ago...
Take a wafer or two of silicon and just add water. The oil obsession has been eclipsed and within 20 years will be in absolute
disarray. The warmongers will invent new excuses.
A hypothetical: No extraordinary amounts of hydrocarbons exist under Southwest Asian ground; just an essential amount for domestic
consumption; in that case, would Zionistan exist where it's currently located and would either Saudi Arabia, Iraq and/or Iran
have any significance aside from being consumers of Outlaw US Empire goods? Would the Balfour Declaration and the Sykes/Picot
Secret Treaty have been made? If the Orinoco Oil Belt didn't exist, would Venezuela's government be continually targeted for Imperial
control? If there was no Brazilian offshore oil, would the Regime Change effort have been made there? Here the hypotheticals end
and a few basic yet important questions follow.
Previous to the 20th Century, why were Hawaii and Samoa wrested from their native residents and annexed to Empire? In what
way did the lowly family farmers spread across 19th Century United States further the growth of its Empire and contribute to the
above named annexations? What was the unspoken message sent to US elites contained within Frederic Jackson Turner's 1893 Frontier
Thesis ? Why is the dominant language of North America English, not French or Spanish?
None of these are rhetorical. All second paragraph questions I asked of my history students. And all have a bearing on b's
fundamental question.
b says, "And it its no longer the oil, why is the U.S. defending the Saudis?"
The US has a vital interest in protecting the narrative of 9/11. The Saudis supplied the patsies. Mossad and dual-citizen neocons
were the architects of the event. Hence, the US must avoid a nasty divorce from the Saudis. The Saudis are in a perfect blackmailing
position.
Of course, most Americans have no idea that the U.S. Shale Oil Industry is nothing more than a Ponzi Scheme because of the
mainstream media's inability to report FACT from FICTION. However, they don't deserve all of the blame as the shale energy
industry has done an excellent job hiding the financial distress from the public and investors by the use of highly technical
jargon and BS.
S.A. is a thinly disguised US military base, hence the "strategic importance" and the relevance of the new Viceroy's previous
experience as a Four Star General. It's doubtful that any of the skilled personnel in the SA Air Force are other than former US/Nato.
A few princes might fancy themselves to be daring fighter pilots. In case of a Anglo-Zio war with Iran SA would be the most forward
US aircraft carrier. The Empire is sustained by its presumed military might and prizes nothing more than its strategically situated
bases. Saud would like to capture Yemen's oil fields, but the primary purpose of the air war is probably training. That of course
is more despicably cynical than mere conquest and genocide.
Trump is the ultimate deceiver/liar. Great actor reading from a script. The heel in the Fake wrestling otherwise known as US politics.
It almost sounds as if he is calling for an end of anymore significant price drops now that he has got Powell on board to limit
interest rate hikes. After all if you are the worlds biggest producer you dont want prices too low. These markets are all manipulated.
I cant imagine how much insider trading is going on. If you look at the oil prices, they started dropping in October with Iran
sanctions looming (before it was announced irans shipments to its 8 biggest buyers would be exempt) and at the height of the Khashoggi
event where sanctions were threatened and Saudi was making threats of their own. In a real free market prices increase amidst
supply uncertainty.
Regardless of what he says he wants and gets now, he is already planning a reversal. Thats how the big boys win, they know
whats coming and when the con the smaller fish to swim one way they are lined up with a big mouth wide open. Controlled chaos
and confusion. For every winner there must be a loser and the losers assets/money are food for the Gods of Money and War
As for pulling out of the Middle East Bibi must have had a good laugh. My money is on the US to be in Yemen to protect them
from the Saudis (humanitarian) and Iranian backed Houthis while in reality we will be there to secure the enormous oil fields
in the North. Perhaps this was what the Khashoggi trap was all about. The importance of oil is not to supply US markets its to
deny it to enemies and control oil prices in order to feed international finance/IMF
@ Pft who wrote: "The importance of oil is not to supply US markets its to deny it to enemies and control oil prices in order
to feed international finance/IMF"
BINGO!!! Those that control finance control most/all of everything else.
Saudi Arabia literally owns close to 8% of the United States economy through various financial instruments. Their public investment
funds and dark pools own large chunks from various strategic firms resting at the apex of western power such as Blackstone. Trump
and Pompeo would be stupid to cut off their nose to spite their face... It's all about the petrodollar, uncle sam will ride and
die with saudi barbaria. If push comes to shove and the saudis decide to untether themselves from the Empire, their sand kingdom
will probably be partitioned.
The oil certainly still plays an important role, the u.s. cannot maintain the current frack oil output for long. For Tronald's
term in office it will suffice, but hardly longer. (The frack gas supplies are much more substantial.)
Personal interests certainly also play a role, and finally one should not make u.s. foreign policy more rational than it is.
Much is also done because of traditions and personal convictions. Often they got it completely wrong and the result was a complete
failure.
Let us watch what Trump does with this or if the resolution makes it to daylight:
Senate advances Yemen resolution in rebuke to Trump
The Senate issued a sharp rebuke Wednesday to President Trump, easily advancing a resolution that would end U.S. military support
for the Saudi-led campaign in Yemen's civil war despite a White House effort to quash the bill.
The administration launched an eleventh-hour lobbying frenzy to try to head off momentum for the resolution, dispatching
Defense Secretary James Mattis and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Capitol Hill in the morning and issuing a veto threat
less than an hour before the vote started.
But lawmakers advanced the resolution, 63-37, even as the administration vowed to stand by Saudi Arabia following outcry
over the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
"There's been a lot of rhetoric that's come from the White House and from the State Department on this issue," said Sen.
Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee. "The rhetoric that I've heard and the broadcasts that we've
made around the world as to who we are have been way out of balance as it relates to American interests and American values."
[/] LINK
TheHill
But Mattis says there is no smoking gun to tie the Clown Thug-Prince to Kashoggi's killing.
TheHill
And Lyias @ 2 is a bingo. Always follow the fiat.
Soon, without any announcements, if they wish to maintain selling oil to China, KSA will follow Qatar. It will be priced in
Yuan...especially given the escalating U.S. trade war with China.
2019 holds interesting times. Order a truckload of popcorn.
Midwest For Truth , Nov 28, 2018 7:29:46 PM |
link
You would have to have your head buried in the sand to not see that the Saudi "Kings" are crypto-Zionistas. Carl Sagan once said,
"One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle.
We're no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even
to ourselves, that we've been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back." And Mark Twain also
wrote "It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled."
Gee, not one taker amongst all these intelligent folk. From last to first: 1588's Protestant Wind allowed Elizabeth and her cronies
to literally keep their heads as Nature helped Drake defeat the Spanish Armada; otherwise, there would be no British Empire root
to the USA, thus no USA and no future Outlaw US Empire, the British Isles becoming a Hapsburg Imperial Property, and a completely
different historical lineage, perhaps sans World Wars and atomic weapons.
Turner's message was with the Frontier closed the "safety valve" of continental expansion defusing political tensions based
on economic inequalities had ceased to be of benefit and future policy would need to deal with that issue thus removing the Fear
Factor from the natives to immigrants, and from wide-open spaces to the inner cities. Whipsawing business cycles driving urban
labor's unrest, populist People's Party politics, and McKinley's 1901 assassination further drove his points home.
Nationwide, family farmers demanded Federal government help to create additional markets for their produce to generate price
inflation so they could remain solvent and keep their homesteads, which translated into the need to conduct international commerce
via the seas which required coaling stations--Hawaii and Samoa, amongst others--and a Blue Water Navy that eventually led to Alfred
T. Mahan's doctrine of Imperial Control of the Oceans still in use today.
As with Gengis Khan's death in 1227 that stopped the Mongol expansion to the English Channel that changed the course of European
history, and what was seen as the Protestant Wind being Divine Intervention, global history has several similar inflection points
turning the tide from one path to another. We don't know yet if the Outlaw US Empire's reliance on Saudi is such, but we can see
it turning from being a great positive to an equally potential great negative for the Empire--humanity as a whole, IMO, will benefit
greatly from an implosion and the relationship becoming a Great Negative helping to strip what remains of the Emperor's Clothing
from his torso so that nations and their citizens can deter the oncoming financialized economic suicide caused by massive debt
and climate chaos.
Vico's circle is about to intersect with Hegel's dialectic and generate a new temporal phase in human history. Although many
will find it hard to tell, the current direction points to a difficult change to a more positive course for humanity as a whole,
but it's also possible that disaster could strike with humanity's total or near extinction being the outcome--good arguments can
be made for either outcome, which ought to unsettle everyone: Yes, the times are that tenuous. But then, I'm merely a lonely historian
aware of a great many things, including the pitfall inherent in trying to predict future events.
"The suffering in Yemen grieves me, but if the United States of America was not involved in Yemen, it would be a hell of a lot
worse." And I'll bet Pompeo said that with a straight face, too. lmfao
And as for "...keep[ing] Baghdad tethered to the West's interests and not Tehran's," I'm guessing the "secretary" would have
us all agree "yeah, fk Iraqi sovereignty anyway. Besides, it's not like they share a border with Iran, or anything. Oh,
wait..."
p.s. Many thanks for all you have contributed to collective knowledge, b; I will be contacting you about making a contribution
by snail mail (I hate PayPal, too).
"... a powerful force for stability in the Middle East."
"Instability" more like it.
Paid for military coup in Egypt. Funding anti-Syrian terrorists. Ongoing tensions with Iran. Zip-all for the Palestinians.
WTF in Yemen. Wahhabi crazy sh_t (via Mosque building) across Asia. Head and hand chopping Friday specials the norm -- especially
of their South-Asian slave classes. Ok, so females can now drive cars -- woohoo. A family run business venture manipulating the
global oil trade and supporting US-petro-$ hegemony recently out of goat herding and each new generation 'initiated' in some Houston
secret society toe-touching shower and soap ceremonies before placement in the ruling hierarchy back home. But enough; they being
Semites makes it an offence to criticize in some 'free' democratic world domains.
Instead of the "rebuke to Trump" meme circulating around, I found
this statement to be more accurate:
"'Cutting off military aid to Saudi Arabia is the right choice for Yemen, the right choice for our national security, and the
right choice for upholding the Constitution,' Paul Kawika Martin, senior director for policy and political affairs at Peace Action,
declared in a statement. ' Three years ago, the notion of Congress voting to cut off military support for Saudi Arabia would
have been politically laughable .'" [My Emphasis]
In other words, advancing Peace with Obama as POTUS wasn't going to happen, so this vote ought to be seen as an attack on Obama's
legacy as it's his policy that's being reconsidered and hopefully discontinued.
Trump, Israel and the Sawdi's. US no longer needs middle east oil for strategic supply. Trump is doing away with the petro-dollar
as that scam has run its course and maintenance is higher than returns. Saudi and other middle east oil is required for global
energy dominance.
Energy dominance, lebensraum for Israel and destroying the current Iran are all objectives that fit into one neat package.
Those plans look to be coming apart at the moment so it remains to be seen how fanatical Trump is on Israel and MAGA. MAGA
as US was at the collapse of the Soviet Union.
As for pulling out of the Middle East Bibi must have had a good laugh. Remember when he said he wanted out of Syria. My money
is on the US to be in Yemen before too long to protect them from the Saudis (humanitarian) and Iranian backed Houthis, while in
reality it will be to secure the enormous oil fields in the North. Perhaps this was what the Khashoggi trap was all about.
The importance of oil is not to supply US markets its to deny it to enemies and control oil prices in order to feed international
finance/IMF .
@16 karlof1.. thanks for a broader historical perspective which you are able to bring to moa.. i enjoy reading your comments..
i don't have answers to ALL your questions earlier.. i have answers for some of them... you want to make it easy on us uneducated
folks and give us less questions, like b did in his post here, lol.... cheers james
The US Senate has advanced a measure to withdraw American support for a Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen.
In a blow to President Donald Trump, senators voted 63-37 to take forward a motion on ending US support.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defence Secretary Jim Mattis had urged Senators not to back the motion, saying it would
worsen the situation in Yemen.
...
The vote in the Senate means further debate on US support for Saudi Arabia is expected next week.
However, correspondents say that even if the Senate ultimately passes the bipartisan resolution it has little chance of
being approved by the outgoing House of Representatives.
That is quite a slap for the Trump administration. It will have little consequences in the short term (or for Yemen) but it sets
a new direction in foreign polices towards the Saudis.
Pompeo is a Deep State Israel-firster with a nasty neocon agenda. It is to Trump's disgrace that he chose Pompeo and the abominable
Bolton. At least Trump admits the ME invasions are really about Israel.
Take a look at some of the - informed - comments below the vid to which you linked. Then think again about an 'all electric
civilisation within a few years'. Yes, and Father Christmas will be providing everything that everyone in the world needs for
a NAmerican/European standard of living within the same time frame. Er - not.
'Renewables' are not going to save hitech industrial 'civilisation' from The Long Descent/Catabolic Collapse (qv). Apart from
any other consideration - and there are some other equally intractable ones - there is no - repeat NO - 'renewable' energy system
which doesn't rely crucially on energy subsidies from the fossil-hydrocarbon fuels, both to build it and to maintain it. They're
not stand-alone, self-bootstrapping technologies. Nor is there any realistic prospect that they ever will be. Fully renewable-power
hitech industrial civilisation is a non-deliverable mirage which is just drawing us ever further into the desert of irreversible
peak-energy/peak-everythig-else.
@16 karlof1. I also find your historical references very interesting. We do indeed seem to be at a very low point in the material
cycle, it will reverse in due course as is its want, hopefully we will live to see a positive change in humanity.
For example we know Tesla didn't succeed in splitting the planet in half, the way techno-psychotics fantasize. As for that
silly link, how typical of techno-wingnuts to respond to prosaic physical facts with fantasies. Anything to prop up faith in the
technocratic-fundamentalist religion. Meanwhile "electrical civilization" has always meant and will always mean fracking and coal,
until the whole fossil-fueled extreme energy nightmare is over.
Given the proven fact that the extreme energy civilization has done nothing but embark upon a campaign to completely destroy
humanity and the Earth (like in your Tesla fantasy), why would a non-psychopath want to prop it up anyway?
It is still the oil, even for the US. The Persian Gulf supplies 20% of world consumption, and Western Europe gets 40% of its oil
from OPEC countries, most of that from the Gulf. Even the US still imports 10% of its total consumption.
Peter AU 1 | Nov 28, 2018 9:44:50 PM | 20
b | Nov 29, 2018 2:33:04 AM | 23
USD as a world reserve currency could be one factor between the important ones. With non US support the saud land could crash
under neighbours pressure, that caos may be not welcomed.
Humble people around where I live have mentioned that time is speeding up its velocity; there seems to be a spiritual (evolutionary)/physical
interface effect or something...
Tolstoy, in the long theory-of-history exposition at the end of War and Peace, challenges 'the great man' of History idea,
spreading in his time, at the dawning of the so-called: European Romantic period of Beethoven, Goerte and Wagner, when
the unique person was glorified in the name of art, truth, whatever (eventually this bubble burst too, in the 20th C. and IMO
because of too much fervent worship in the Cult of the Temple of the Money God. Dostoyevki's great Crime and Punishment is all
about this issue.)
Tolstoy tries to describe a scientifically-determined historical process, dissing the 'great man of History' thesis. He was
thinking of Napoleon Bonaparte of course, the run-away upstart repulican, anathema to the established order. Tolstoy describes
it in the opening scene of the novel: a fascinating parlor-room conversation between a "liberal" woman of good-birth in the elite
circles of society and a military captain at the party.
...only tenuously relevant to karlofi1's great post touching upon the Theory of History as such; thanks.
Now as to the question: ¿Why is Trump supporting Saudi Arabia? Let me think about that...
"... "The 10 Bcm/year into Europe is not a game-changer from a volume point of view, but it is a game-changer from a new source of product into mainland Europe perspective and it can be expanded." ..."
"... Meanwhile, however, Russia and Turkey are building another pipeline, Turkish Stream, that will supply gas to Turkey and Eastern Europe, as well as possibly Hungary. The two recently marked the completion of its subsea section. Turkish Stream will have two lines, each able to carry up to 15.75 billion cubic meters. One will supply the Turkish market and the other European countries. ..."
"... In this context, the Southern Gas Corridor seems to have more of a political rather than practical significance for the time being , giving Europe the confidence that it could at some future point import a lot more Caspian gas because the infrastructure is there. ..."
The Southern Gas Corridor on which the European Union is pinning most of its hopes for
natural gas supply diversification away from Russia is coming along nicely and will not just be
on schedule, but it will come with a price tag that is US$5-billion lower than the original
budget , BP's vice president in charge of the project
told S&P Global Platts this week.
"Often these kinds of mega-projects fall behind schedule. But the way the projects have
maintained the schedule has meant that your traditional overspend, or utilization of
contingency, has not occurred," Joseph Murphy said, adding that savings had been the top
priority for the supermajor.
The Southern Gas Corridor will carry natural gas from the Azeri Shah Deniz 2 field in the
Caspian Sea to Europe via a network of three pipelines : the Georgia South Caucasus Pipeline,
which was recently expanded and can carry 23 billion cubic meters of gas; the TANAP pipeline
via Turkey, with a peak capacity of 31 billion cubic meters annually; and the Trans-Adriatic
Pipeline, or TAP, which will link with TANAP at the Turkish-Greek border and carry 10 billion
cubic meters of gas annually to Italy.
TANAP was
commissioned in July this year and the first phase of TAP is expected to be completed in
two years, so Europe will hopefully have more non-Russian gas at the start of the new decade.
But not that much, at least initially: TANAP will operate at an initial capacity of 16 billion
cubic meters annually, of which 6 billion cubic meters will be supplied to Turkey and the
remainder will go to Europe. In the context of total natural gas demand of 564 billion cubic
meters in 2020, according to a forecast from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies released
earlier this year, this is not a lot.
Yet at some point the TANAP will reach its full capacity and hopefully by that time, TAP
will be completed. Surprisingly, it was the branch to Italy that proved the most challenging,
and BP's Murphy acknowledged that. While Turkey built TANAP on time to the surprise of the
project operator, TAP has been struggling because of legal issues and uncertainty after the new
Italian government entered office earlier this year.
At the time, the government of Giuseppe Conte said the pipeline was pointless but, said
Murphy, since then he has accepted the benefits the infrastructure would offer, such as transit
fees. And yet local opposition in southern Italy remains strong but BP still sees first
deliveries of gas through Italy in 2020.
The BP executive admitted that at first the Southern Gas Corridor wouldn't make a
splash.
"The 10 Bcm/year into Europe is not a game-changer from a volume point of view, but it is
a game-changer from a new source of product into mainland Europe perspective and it can be
expanded."
Meanwhile, however, Russia and Turkey are building another pipeline, Turkish Stream, that
will supply gas to Turkey and Eastern Europe, as well as possibly Hungary. The two recently
marked the completion of its subsea section. Turkish Stream will have two lines, each able to
carry up to 15.75 billion cubic
meters. One will supply the Turkish market and the other European countries.
In this context, the Southern Gas Corridor seems to have more of a political rather than
practical significance for the time being , giving Europe the confidence that it could at some
future point import a lot more Caspian gas because the infrastructure is there.
Comments while mostly naive, are indicative for the part of the US society that elected Trump
and that Trump betrayed.
But the fact that gas went not to Europe, but to Turkey is pretty indicative. And even larger volume with go to China. At some
point Europe might lose part or all Russia gas supply as Russian gas reserved are not infinite. That the perspective EU leaders
are afraid of.
US shale gas is OK as long as the USA is supplied from Canada, Russia and other places as well. Some quantity can be
exported. But the USA can't be a large and stable gas supplier to Europe as shale gas is capital intensive and sweet spots
are limited.
Notable quotes:
"... Some worthy observations, especially with all the US "Think Tanks." But I would include the number of non-Jewish elites who have banded together with the Jewish elite and who have greatly aided in eating out the very heart of America. ..."
"... History also shows that ANY smaller entity (Israel) that depends on a larger entity (America) for its survival becomes a failed entity in the long run. Just saying. ..."
"... The American Empire is all cost and no benefit to the great majority of Americans. The MIC and that's it. Politicians on the right wave the flag and politicians on the left describe a politically correct future. All on our dime. ..."
While the Trump Administration still thinks it can play enough games to derail the
Nordstream 2 pipeline via sanctions and threats, the impotence of its position geopolitically
was on display the other day as the final pipe of the first train of the Turkstream pipeline
entered the waters of the Black Sea.
The pipe was sanctioned by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan who shared a public stage and held bilateral talks afterwards. I think it is
important for everyone to watch the response to Putin's speech in its entirety. Because it
highlights just how far Russian/Turkish relations have come since the November 24th, 2015
incident where Turkey shot down a Russian SU-24 over Syria.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/TkFR25SArYM
When you contrast this event with the strained and uninspired interactions between Erdogan
and President Trump you realize that the world is moving forward despite the seeming power of
the United States to derail events.
And Turkey is the key player in the region, geographically, culturally and politically.
Erdogan and Putin know this. And they also know that Turkey being the transit corridor of
energy for Eastern Europe opens those countries up to economic and political power they haven't
enjoyed in a long time.
The first train of Turkstream will serve Turkey directly. Over the next couple of years the
second train will be built which will serve as a jumping off point for bringing gas to Eastern
and Southern Europe.
Turkstream will bring 15.75 bcm annually to Turkey and the second train that same amount to
Europe. The TAP – Trans Adriatic Pipeline -- will bring just 10 bcm annually and won't do
so before 2020, a project more than six years in the making.
Political Realities
The real story behind Turkstream, however, is, despite Putin's protestations to the
contrary, political. No project of this size is purely economic, even if it makes immense
economic sense. If that were the case then the STC wouldn't exist because it makes zero
economic sense but some, if not much, political sense.
No, this pipeline along with the other major energy projects between Russia and Turkey have
massive long-term political implications for the Middle East. Erdogan wants to re-take control
of the Islamic world from the Saudis.
This is why they have the Saudis on a residual-poison-type drip
feed of information relating to the death of Jamal Khashoggi to extract maximal value from
the situation as Erdogan plays the U.S. deep state against the Trump/Mohammed bin Salman (MbS)
alliance.
The U.S. deep state wants Trump weakened and MbS removed from power. Trump needs MbS to
advance his plans for securing Israel's future and prolong the dollar's long-term health.
Erdogan is using this rift to extract concessions left and right while continuing to do
whatever he wants to do vis a vis Syria, Iran and his growing partnership with Russia.
Erdogan is in a position now to drive a very hard bargain over U.S. involvement in Syria,
which neither faction in the U.S. government (Trump and the deep state) wants to give up
on.
By controlling the oil fields in the eastern part of Syria and blocking the roads leading
from Iraq the U.S. is playing a game it can't win because ultimately the Kurds will either have
to be betrayed by the U.S. to keep Erdogan happy or cut a deal with the Syrian government for
their future alienating the U.S.
This has been the ultimate end-game of the occupation of eastern Syria for months now and
time is on both Putin's and Erdogan's side. Because the U.S. can't pressure Turkey to stop
growing closer to Russia and Iran.
Eventually the U.S. troops in Syria will be nothing more than an albatross around Trump's
neck politically and he'll have to announce a pull out, which will be popular back home helping
his re-election campaign for 2020.
The big loser in this is Israel who is now having to circle the wagons politically since
Putin put the screws to Benjamin Netanyahu for his part in the deaths of 15 Russian airmen back
in September by closing the Syrian airspace and allowing mostly free movement of materiel to
Lebanon.
Netanyahu, as I talked about last week, is now in a very precarious position after Israel
was forced to sue for peace thanks to the unprecedentedly strong response by the Palestinians
in Gaza.
Elijah Magnier commented
recently that it this was the net result of Trump's unconditional support of Israel which
united the Arab resistance rather than dividing and conquering it.
But the US establishment decided to distance itself from the Palestinian cause and
embraced unconditionally the Israeli apartheid policy towards Palestine: the US supports
Israel blindly. It has recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, suspended financial aid
to UN institutions supporting Palestinian refugees (schools, medical care, homes), and
rejected the right of return of Palestinians. All this has pushed various Palestinian groups,
including the Palestinian Authority, to acknowledge that any negotiation with Israel is
useless and that also the US can no longer be considered a reliable partner. Moreover, the
failed regime-change in Syria and the humiliating conditions place on Arab financial support
were in a way the last straws that convinced Hamas to change its position, giving up on the
Oslo agreement and joining the Axis of the Resistance.
Project Netanyahu,
as Alistair Crooke termed it , was predicated on keeping the support of the Palestinians
split with Hamas and the Palestinian Authority at odds and then grinding out the resistance in
Gaza over time.
Trump's plans also involved the formation of the so-called "Arab NATO" the summit for which
has been put off until next year thanks to Erdogan's deft handling of the Saudi hit on
Khashoggi. There are still a number of issues outstanding -- the financial blockade of Qatar,
the war in Yemen, etc. -- that need to be resolved as well before any of this is even remotely
possible.
At this point that plan has failed and the clash with Israel last week proved it is
unworkable without tacit approval of Turkey who is gunning for the Saudis as the leaders of the
Sunni world.
Show me the Money
But, more importantly, over time, a Turkey that can ween itself off the U.S. dollar over the
next decade is a Turkey that can survive politically the upheaval to the post-WWII
institutional order coming over the next few years.
Remember, all of this is happening against the backdrop of a U.S. and European political
order that is failing to maintain the confidence of the people it governs.
The road to dollar independence will be long and hard but it will be possible. Russia is the
model for this having successfully removed the dollar from a great deal of its trade and is now
reaping the benefits of that stability.
And projects like Turkstream and the soon to be completed Power of Siberia Pipeline to China
will see the gas from both trade without the dollar as the intermediary.
If you don't think this de-dollarization of the Russian economy is happening or significant,
take one look at the Russian ruble versus the price of Brent crude in recent weeks. We've had
another historic collapse in oil prices and yet the ruble versus the dollar hasn't really moved
at all.
The upward move from earlier this year in the ruble (not shown) came from disruptions in the
Aluminum market and the threat of further sanctions. But, as the U.S. puts the screws even
tighter to Russia's finances by forcing the price of oil down, the effect on the ruble has been
minimal.
With today's move Brent is off nearly $30 from its October high ( a massive 35% drop in
prices) just seven weeks ago and the Ruble hasn't budged. The Bank of Russia hasn't been in
there propping up its price. Normally this would send the ruble into a tailspin but it
hasn't.
The other so-called 'commodity currencies' like the Canadian and Australian dollars have
been hit hard but not the ruble.
Set the Way Back Machine to 2014 when oil prices cratered and you'll see a ruble in free
fall which culminated in a massive blow-off top that required a fundamental shift in both
fiscal and monetary policy for Russia.
This had to do with the massive dollar-denominated debt of its, you guessed it, oil and gas
sector. Today that is not a point of leverage.
Today lower oil prices will be a forward headwind for Russian oil companies but a boon to
the Russian economy that won't experience massive inflation thanks to the ruble being sold to
cover U.S. dollar liabilities.
Those days are over.
And so too will those days come for Turkey which is now in the process of doing what Russia
did in 2015, divest itself of future dollar obligations while diversifying the currencies it
trades in.
Stability, transparency and solvency are the things that increase the demand for a currency
as not only a medium of exchange but also as a reserve asset. Russia announced the latest
figures of bilateral trade with China bypassing the dollar and RT had a very interesting
quote from Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev.
No one currency should dominate the market, because this makes all of us dependent on the
economic situation in the country that issues this reserve currency, even when we are talking
about a strong economy such as the United States," Medvedev said.
He added that US sanctions have pushed Moscow and Beijing to think about the use of their
domestic currencies in settlements, something that "we should have done ten years ago."
" Trading for rubles is our absolute priority, which, by the way, should eventually turn
the ruble from a convertible currency into a reserve currency, " the Russian prime minister
said.
That is the first statement by a major Russian figure about seeing the ruble rise to reserve
status, but it's something that many, like myself, have speculated about for years now.
Tying together major economies like Turkey, Iran, China and eventually the EU via energy
projects which settle the trade in local currencies is the big threat to the current political
and economic program of the U.S. It is something the EU will only embrace reluctantly.
It is something the U.S. will oppose vehemently.
And it is something that no one will stop if it makes sense for the people on each side of
the transaction. This is why Turkstream and Nordstream 2 are such important projects they
change the entire dynamic of the flow of global capital.
Oil and commodity markets were used as a finishing move on the Soviet system. The book,
"The Oil Card: Global Economic Warfare in the 21st Century" by James R. Norman details the
use of oil futures as a geopolitical tool. Pipelines change the calculus quite a bit.
Soros funded 'migration' to Europe has also failed and created a massive cultural and
economic burden on Europe.
The Soros/Rothschild plan to destroy Middle Eastern countries and displace the people was
- of course - motivated by the Rothschilds 'bread and butter ' - OIL ( the worlds largest
traded commodity ) !!
...Where ever they go, they [neoliberals] get organised, identify the institutions/establishments/courts to infiltrate and then use that
influence to -
* Hijack the economy.
* Corrupt the society.
As the current trend shows, the nexus of the international economic activity is shifting
east. Turkey is not making a mistake aligning itself with the goals of Russia, Iran and
China. Although there is still a huge debt of the previous deeds that has to be paid.
"Half of the US billionaires are Jews while only being less then 3% of the population. And
it doesn't stop there. They work collectively to hijack the institutions critical for the
operations of the democracy."
Some worthy observations, especially with all the US "Think Tanks." But I would include
the number of non-Jewish elites who have banded together with the Jewish elite and who have
greatly aided in eating out the very heart of America.
I read on here previously some dimwit comment about "America prints a bill for 2 cents
while other countries have to earn a dollars worth of equity to buy it and we can do this
forever" kind of thing. Not if other countries don't supply the demand you can't :)
History also shows that ANY smaller entity (Israel) that depends on a larger entity
(America) for its survival becomes a failed entity in the long run. Just saying.
I think you could quite reasonably replace the term 'depends on a larger entity', with a
term that better describes a (smaller) ' parasite ' on a (larger) host...
From your lips to God's ear. The American Empire is all cost and no benefit to the great majority of Americans. The MIC
and that's it. Politicians on the right wave the flag and politicians on the left describe a
politically correct future. All on our dime.
Israhell is losing its status via Putins peaceful diplomacy and trade with ME countries
who are not onboard with the Yinon plan. This is why RUSSIAGATE, led by dual Israhelli democrats in Congress. There is always a
foreign policy issue attached to their demonizing of other countries. This is also why the UK just sent UK soldiers to Ukraine declaring war on Russia for
"invading Ukraine" and not telling parliament or the UK people.
UK/US blind support for Israhell will get us all killed.
We do know that UK soldiers have been sent to the Ukraine. We also know that, according to elements in the Government and the Civil Service, Russia
invaded and annexed the Ukraine, which is just another reason to not trust the
Government--any Government.
WRONG!!!!! NordStream Eins und Zwei are the Prizes, because DEU, Scandinavia, CHE, and FRA will
Benefit. TRK Wins 2nd Prize with TRKStream and SouthStream Pipelines. Losers are BGR and EU_PARAGOV, since BGR went from Prime Partner to Trickledown
Transiteer.
Ultimately, along with Nordstream and Turkstream, there will also be a Polarstream
(leading to UK and Iceland) and Southstream (which was already begun but temporarily
suspended after Obama threatened Bulgaria via Angela Merkel).
And, oh...I am sure there will also be a Ukrostream (also known as Mainstream)
unfortunately the Ukronazi government of Ukrainistan doesn't know this just yet. They will
find out in due course, I am sure.
First PolarStream is highly unlikely both because laying it would be extremely difficult
and expensive and because Iceland has no need for gas as it is sitting on thermal reserves
and the UK won't deal with Russia.
You are correct on SouthStream.
As to UkroStream (I assume you mean Ukraine) it is already in existence and has been for
50 plus years. Given the bad history between the parties the Russians will want to stop that
route asap, hence the timing of NordStream 2 and TurkStream. So in the future UkroSream is
going to end, not start.
long-term political implications for the Middle East. Erdogan wants to re-take control of
the Islamic world from the Saudis.
SA still has control of the Hajj -- religious tourism - command by the Magic Book that
even Turkish mohammadist must complete. +/- 18% of SA GDP-- and SA isn't sharing any of that
loot.
Ticip is required to go and throw rocks at the black orb -- and do the Muslim Hokey Pokey
along with all the rest.. oh, and pay the SA kings for the privilege !
The new 3D Grand Chessboard is being played very quietly out of Moscow.
The article is a wee bit deceptive. Whilst this was indeed the last bit of under sea pipe
they were celebrating, it should be pointed out the stunning speed that they achieved, about
a mile a day some to a depth of over 1000 feet, quite an achievement on land, let alone at
sea. This is quite interesting, especially the map
Also, as its landfall in Turkey is west of the Bosphorus, that is west of Istanbul, maybe
that 'for Turkish use' is a cover for its primary purpose, supplying the Balkans as well as
Turkey from January 2020.
Note the significance of the start to pump date, December 2019, the same as NordStream 2.
What else happens then? Oh yes, the gas transit contract with Ukraine ends. The combination
of these two new pipelines to a very great extent replace that agreement. Even though
politically everyone is saying Ukraine ($4B p.a. transit fees) should be protected.
Take another look at the map, note that it takes a dogleg south to Turkey. If at that
point it had gone straight ahead it would have gone to Bulgaria as SouthStream. But the US
and its EU vassal stopped that. Maybe the second pipeline the Russians are now discussing
will resurrect that route.
"... You would not consider as viable the hypothesis that Trump is using the assassination, and evidence of MbS' ordering of it, as leverage to achieve various objectives that MbS wasn't on board with (a resolution of the Yemen situation? Oil pricing? toning down jihadi support in the MENA? Other?). ..."
What do people make of the fact that it seems Khashoggi apparently was recently married,
the picture of him with his supposed fiancée was clearly photoshopped (used the
same photo from his WaPo profile), and his family has indicated they knew nothing of this
new fiancée?
It also seems interesting how the US has a tape of MBS ordering his silencing when we
apparently knew little at the outset. Seems this turd is starting to stink a bit.
Automated SIGINT collection produces such volumes of material based on standing targets
that it often takes a while to sift through it. MBS's phone would be such a target. In
any event Trump doesn't want to hear it.
You would not consider as viable the hypothesis that Trump is using the assassination,
and evidence of MbS' ordering of it, as leverage to achieve various objectives that MbS
wasn't on board with (a resolution of the Yemen situation? Oil pricing? toning down
jihadi support in the MENA? Other?).
Oil and commodity markets were used as a finishing move on the Soviet system. The book,
"The Oil Card: Global Economic Warfare in the 21st Century" by James R. Norman details the
use of oil futures as a geopolitical tool. Pipelines change the calculus quite a bit.
TheRealNews
Published on 20 Nov 2018
CIA officials are signaling Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman must be replaced. Is this all about the killing of Jamal
Khashoggi? Professor Asad AbuKhalil says there are other political reasons.
Fear not! I heard on the news on my way home that Trump has decided Saudi Arabia will not be
punished for the killing of Khahsoggi with termination of current arms contracts. The Donald
reasons that if that happens, the KSA will just buy its weapons elsewhere. And nobody in the
military-industrial complex wants that. I am very confident Justin Trudeau will interpret
that as a signal that Canada likewise should not cut off its nose to spite its face, and so
Canada will not 'punish' its good friend, either. Therefore, Saudi Arabia will experience no
punishment whatsoever for its admitted murder of an inconvenient American journalist. There
are limits to western indignation, after all. So the west will content itself with revoking
the KSA's invitation to the Spring Strawberry Social, and double down on its insistence that
Crimea is Ukraine and must be returned to Kiev's control, and the west will never accept its
'annexation'. Never, never, never. There are some issues on which the west has spine to
spare. So if you want a noisy western journalist removed, slip the Saudis a few bucks, and
they can probably make it happen with no recriminations.
The recognition of Crimea as part of Ukraine by Washington and its minions is totally
worthless. It is not based on law and justice, it is based on self-interest (as in the USA
had big plans to acquire Crimea and build a massive naval base there). The use of the word
annexation is propaganda drivel.
Ukraine annexed Crimea in 1991 and the ICJ has ruled that
local ethnic majorities have a right to self determination. If independence is good enough
for Kosovo, it is good enough for Crimea. No amount of special pleading by Washington and its
bootlicks about Kosovo being "special" has any merit.
I'm afraid you are wrong about the ICJ Kirill. The ICJ dodged the actual issue. They ruled
that making a declaration of independence is not against international law, not
whether anyone/whatever/blah blah blah actually has the right to independence. Possibly
because they did not want to cross Pandora's Rubicon Box
the adoption of the declaration of independence of the 17 February 2008 did not violate
general international law because international law contains no 'prohibition on declarations
of independence
####
Some call it 'unique', others call it a precedent , therefore 'not unique'. If the
West argues that the ICJ said it was ok, then it is also ok for Crimea to declare
independence. Or, if they claim that Crimea is not independent, that Kosovo cannot be either,
hence, as you point out the use of the word ' annexation ' and other creative
circumlocutions to avoid mentioning that secession was first and the clear comparison with
Kosovo which would not serve them well at all.
The International Court of Justice today held that
international law did not prohibit Kosovo's
declaration of independence, while sidestepping the
larger issue of Kosovo's statehood
####
But, this is not the first time the West has decided what international law is for itself
when back in 1991 the European Council ministers themselves appointed the Badinter Commission
to give it a legal figleaf for recognizing the administrative borders of Yugoslavia as
international. I've posted this link before, but once more with feeling:
Thanks for the clarification. But it is all a house of cards. Given that empires and
countries have continually fissioned into pieces through the whole of relevant history, the
notion of "territorial integrity" is bogus and a corollary of "might makes right". As long as
the country can suppress secessionists it has territorial integrity, when it becomes too weak
everything falls apart. There is no international law. And if ware to assume a common law
regime that is not maintained by legislatures, then secession is fully legal if the local
majority wants it hard enough.
We know it is nothing but the Law of the Jungle. It's just that the fancy dress shop
has expanded and has a lot more more costumes on offer to its clients.
when the west trots out its I-never-said that-exactly smokescreen, it is helpful to read
what various western countries wrote as legal opinions, and the arguments they used to
support their reasoning. Where Kosovo is concerned, a classic is the Polish opinion, written
by (or more likely for) its then-Foreign Minister, Radek Sikorski. He wrote, in part;
" a state is commonly defined as a community which consists of a territory and a
population subject to an organized political authority; that such a state is characterized by
sovereignty the existence of the state is a question of fact, the effects of recognition by
other states are purely declaratory. A declaration of independence is merely an act that
confirms these factual circumstances, and it may be difficult to assess such an act in purely
legal terms."
Legal opinions are usually replete with bafflegab to confuse the easily-bored and the
pressed-for-time readers. But Mr. Sikorski made what he must have believed was a very
convincing case that a sovereign state-within-a-state is characterized by an ethnic
population, a pre-existing degree of autonomy (so that the entity demonstrates the capability
to function autonomously), and its own functioning institutions such as banks and
infrastructure.
Which of those is not descriptive of Crimea? It was even called "The Autonomous Republic
of Crimea", for Christ's sake. Sikorski doubtless had an inkling that the Kosovo precedent
might come back to bite NATO, and so tried to duck a justification which might read like a
precedent, but it was unavoidable.
These American fucktards actually think they can replace Russian gas supply to the EU. With
what you utter void heads? America had a net export capacity of 5 bcm in 2017 because it
imported about 87 bcm from Canada. When you fuckwad, douchebags get 150 bcm export capacity,
then start yapping. Until then, STFU.
Of course, it is clear to anyone with a functional brain that the US is totally dishonest
on claiming to want to supply the EU. In fact, it wants to saddle the EU with onerous LNG
contracts to third parties (e.g. Qatar) who can currently and for the near term supply the
volumes of LNG needed. At the same time the US damages the Asian tigers by increasing LNG
prices.
It is time for all the US bootlicks (Japan, the EU) to tell Uncle Scumbag to shove himself
in his own ass. The US is not even pretending to treat these countries with respect.
The US has repeatedly taken position against Nord Stream 2, a Russia-sponsored pipeline
planned to bring gas to Germany under the Baltic Sea. But this time Washington warned against
another such pipeline, bringing Russian gas under the Black Sea.
US Energy Secretary Rick Perry called on Hungary and its neighbors to reject Russian gas
pipelines which Washington says are being used to cement Moscow's grip on central and eastern
Europe.
Energy diversification would be crucial for the region, as Russia has used energy as a
weapon in the past, he said, as quoted by Reuters.
"Russia is using a pipeline project Nord stream 2 and a multi-line Turkish stream to try to
solidify its control over the security and the stability of Central and eastern Europe," Perry
added during a visit to Budapest.
Last July, Hungary signed a deal with Russia's Gazprom to link the country with the Turkish
Stream pipeline by end-2019.
Rick Perry is a salesman. He wants us Europeans to buy USA gas. Which is why he is against
North Stream 2 and Turkish Stream. Not because Russia may use gas to blackmail Europe --
unlike the USA, which blackmails Europe to sanction Iran and Russia –. No, he just
wants us to buy America.
Despite the fact that gas produced in the USA is far more expensive
than Russia's. Well, what can you expect from a minister in the government of a tycoon? What
else can you expect from today's USA?
One way or another, Gazprom is going to have to pay Ukraine $2.6 Billion, so they might as
well just do it and have it over with. Of course the Ukies will prance and jump up and down
in the streets and yell 'Slava Ukrainy' – and hasten off to prepare new lawsuits in
search of more money from the Russian state. But a Swiss court has ordered all Nord Stream
partners to not make any payments to Gazprom, instead to pay all monies owed to Gazprom to
Swedish bailiffs, who will redistribute it to Ukraine until they recover all their money.
Looks like the recent oil price drop was engineered like in 2014 by the USA
adminsitration...
" Concerns that strict sanctioning of Iranian oil would result in a spike in global oil
prices prompted Trump to grant waivers to eight of Iran's largest purchasers of oil, creating a
situation where Iran's oil-based income will increase following the implementation of sanctions.
The bottom line is that the current round of U.S. sanctions targeting Iran will not achieve
anything. "
Notable quotes:
"... With Iran, the issue of nuclear non-proliferation was an additional justification for sanctions. Here, disarmament concerns eventually trumped regime change desires, to the extent that when the U.S. was confronted by the reality that sanctions would not achieve the change in behavior desired by Tehran, and the cost of war with Iran being prohibitively high, both politically and militarily, it capitulated. It agreed to lift the sanctions in exchange for Iran agreeing to enhanced monitoring of a nuclear program that was fundamentally unaltered by the resulting agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Program of Action, or JCPOA. ..."
"... When Trump withdrew from the JCPOA, he did so in an environment that was radically different than the one that was in play when President Barack Obama embraced that agreement in July 2015. Today, the U.S. stands alone in implementing sanctions, while Iran enjoys the support of the rest of the world (support that will continue so long as Iran complies with the provisions set forth in the JCPOA.) Moreover, Iran is working with its new-found partners in Europe, Russia, and China to develop work-arounds to the U.S. sanctions. ..."
"... The coalition of support that the U.S. has assembled to confront Iran, built around Israel and Saudi Arabia, is not as solid as had been hoped -- Israel is tied down in Gaza, while Saudi Arabia struggles in Yemen, and is reeling from the fallout surrounding the murder of Jamal Khashoggi ..."
The
imposition of new, more stringent sanctions targeting Iranian oil sales by the Trump
administration has once again raised the question: is this even a viable policy?
The Council on Foreign Relations
defines sanctions as "a lower-cost, lower-risk, middle course of action between diplomacy
and war." In short, sanctions do not represent policy per se, but rather the absence of policy,
little more than a stop-gap measure to be used while other options are considered and/or
developed.
Not surprising, sanctions have rarely -- if ever -- succeeded in obtaining their desired
results. The poster child for successful sanctions as a vehicle for change -- divestment in
South Africa during the 1980s in opposition to the Apartheid regime -- is in reality a red
herring. The South
Africa sanctions were in fact counterproductive , in so far as they prompted even harsher
policies from the South African government. The demise of Apartheid came about largely because
the Soviet Union collapsed, meaning the South African government was no longer needed in the
fight against communism.
Another myth that has arisen around sanctions is their utility in addressing
nonproliferation issues. Since 1994, the U.S. has promulgated non-proliferation sanctions under
the guise of executive orders signed by the president or statutes passed by Congress. But there
is no evidence that sanctions implemented under these authorities have meaningfully altered the
behaviors that they target. Better known are the various sanctions regimes authorized under UN
Security Council resolutions backed by the United States, specifically those targeting Iraq,
North Korea, and Iran.
The Iraq sanctions were, by intent, a stop-gap measure implemented four days after the Iraqi
invasion of Kuwait and intended to buy time until a military response could be authorized,
organized, and executed. The nature of the Iraq sanctions regime was fundamentally altered
after Operation Desert Storm, when the objective transitioned away from the liberation of
Kuwait, which was achieved by force of arms, to the elimination of weapons of mass destruction,
which was never the intent of the sanctions to begin with. The potential for sanctions to alter
Iraqi behavior was real -- Iraq had made the lifting of sanctions its top priority, and thanks
to aggressive UN weapons inspections, was effectively disarmed by 1995.
This potential, however, was never realized in large part to the unspoken yet very real
policy on part of the U.S. that sanctions would not be lifted on Iraq, regardless of its level
of disarmament, until which time its president, Saddam Hussein, was removed from power. Since
the sanctions were not designed, intended, or capable of achieving regime change, their very
existence became a policy trap -- as the sanctions crumbled due to a lack of support and
enforcement, the U.S. was compelled to either back away from its regime change policy, which
was politically impossible, or seek regime change through military engagement. In short,
American sanctions policy vis-à-vis Iraq was one of the major causal factors behind the
2003 decision to invade Iraq.
One of the flawed lessons that emerged from the Iraq sanctions experience was that sanctions
could contribute to regime change, in so far as they weakened the targeted nation to the point
that a military option became attractive. This is a fundamentally flawed conclusion, however,
predicated on the mistaken belief that Iraq's military weakness was the direct byproduct of
sanctions. Iraq's military weakness was because its military had been effectively destroyed
during the 1991 Gulf War. Sanctions contributed significantly to Iraq being unable to
reconstitute a meaningful military capability, but they were not the cause of the underlying
systemic problems that led to the rapid defeat of the Iraqi military in 2003.
The "success" of the Iraq sanctions regime helped guide U.S. policy regarding North Korea in
the 1990s and 2000s. Stringent sanctions, backed by Security Council resolutions, were
implemented to curtail North Korea's development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile
delivery systems. Simple cause-effect analysis shows the impotence of this effort -- North
Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile capability continued unabated, culminating in
nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching U.S. soil being tested
and deployed. The notion that sanctions could undermine the legitimacy of the North Korean
regime and facilitate its collapse was not matched by reality. If anything, support for the
regime grew as it demonstrated its willingness to stand up to the U.S. and proceed with its
nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.
The Trump administration labors under the fiction that it was the U.S. policy of "maximum
pressure" through sanctions that compelled North Korea to agree to denuclearization. The
reality, however, is that it is North Korea, backed by China and Russia, that has dictated the
timing of the diplomatic breakthrough with the U.S. ( the
so-called "Peace Olympics" ), and the pace of associated disarmament. Moreover, North
Korea's insistence that any denuclearization be conducted parallel to the lifting of economic
sanctions demonstrates that it is in full control of its policy, and that the promise of the
lifting of economic sanctions has not, to date, prompted any change in Pyongyang's stance.
While President Donald Trump maintains that the U.S. will not budge from its position that
sanctions will remain in place until North Korea disarms, the fact of the matter is that the
sanctions regime is already collapsing, with China opening its border, Russia selling gasoline
and oil, and South Korea engaged in discussions about potential unification.
The U.S. has lost control of the process, if indeed it was ever in control. It is doubtful
that the rest of the world will allow the progress made to date with North Korea to be undone,
leaving the U.S. increasingly isolated. Insisting on the maintenance of a sanctions regime that
has proven ineffective and counterproductive is not sustainable policy. As with Iraq, U.S.
sanctions have proven to be the problem, not the solution. Unlike Iraq, North Korea maintains a
robust military capability, fundamentally altering the stakes involved in any military solution
the U.S. might consider as an alternative -- in short, there is no military solution. One can
expect the U.S. to alter its position on sanctions before North Korea budges on
denuclearization.
Iran represents a far more complex, and dangerous, problem set. The United States has
maintained sanctions against Iran that date back to the 1979 Iranian Revolution that overthrew
the Shah, and the seizure of the U.S. embassy and resultant holding of its staff hostage for
444 days. The U.S. policy vis-à-vis Iran has been one where the demise of the ruling
theocracy has been a real, if unstated, objective, and every sanctions regime implemented since
that time has had that outcome in mind. This is the reverse of the Iraqi case, where regime
change was an afterthought to sanctions. With Iran, the issue of nuclear non-proliferation
was an additional justification for sanctions. Here, disarmament concerns eventually trumped
regime change desires, to the extent that when the U.S. was confronted by the reality that
sanctions would not achieve the change in behavior desired by Tehran, and the cost of war with
Iran being prohibitively high, both politically and militarily, it capitulated. It agreed to
lift the sanctions in exchange for Iran agreeing to enhanced monitoring of a nuclear program
that was fundamentally unaltered by the resulting agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive
Program of Action, or JCPOA.
When Trump withdrew from the JCPOA, he did so in an environment that was radically
different than the one that was in play when President Barack Obama embraced that agreement in
July 2015. Today, the U.S. stands alone in implementing sanctions, while Iran enjoys the
support of the rest of the world (support that will continue so long as Iran complies with the
provisions set forth in the JCPOA.) Moreover, Iran is working with its new-found partners in
Europe, Russia, and China to develop work-arounds to the U.S. sanctions.
The coalition of support that the U.S. has assembled to confront Iran, built around
Israel and Saudi Arabia, is not as solid as had been hoped -- Israel is tied down in Gaza,
while Saudi Arabia struggles in Yemen, and is reeling from the fallout surrounding the murder
of Jamal Khashoggi .
Concerns that strict sanctioning of Iranian oil would result in a spike in global oil prices
prompted Trump to grant waivers to eight of Iran's largest purchasers of oil, creating a
situation where Iran's oil-based income will increase following the implementation of
sanctions. The bottom line is that the current round of U.S. sanctions targeting Iran will not
achieve anything.
For the meantime, Iran will avoid confrontation, operating on the hope that it will be able
to cobble an effective counter to U.S. sanctions. However, unlike Iraq, Iran has a very capable
military. Unlike Korea, however, this military is not equipped with a nuclear deterrent.
If history has taught us anything, it is that the U.S. tends to default to military
intervention when sanctions have failed to achieve the policy goal of regime change. Trump,
operating as he is under the influence of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security
Advisor John Bolton, is not immune to this trap. The question is whether Iran can defeat the
sanctions through workarounds before they become too crippling and the regime is forced to lash
out in its own defense. This is one race where the world would do well to bet on Iran, because
the consequences of failure are dire.
Scott Ritter is a former Marine Corps intelligence officer who served in the former
Soviet Union implementing arms control treaties, in the Persian Gulf during Operation Desert
Storm, and in Iraq overseeing the disarmament of WMD. He is the author of Dealbreaker:
Donald Trump and the Unmaking of the Iran Nuclear Deal (2018) by Clarity Press.
"... The Treasury declaration blamed MbS advisor Saud al-Qahtani as mastermind behind the Khashoggi murder, while the Saudis carefully avoided that. We now learn that the person in the U.S. National Security Council who put al-Qahtani on the list was fired : ..."
"... Fontenrose had played a key role in the administration's decision about which Saudis to sanction in response to Khashoggi's killing, these people said. ..."
"... I suspect that MbS tried, via Trump's son-in-law Kushner, to save al-Qahtani (and himself). Trump clearly wanted to do that, but Fontenrose blew the plan by pushing for al-Qahtani to be sanctioned. The CIA also sabotaged the planned exculpation of MbS by 'leaking' its judgment about MbS' personal responsibility to the press. ( WaPo published the CIA conclusion in Arabic , another point the Saudis will hate.) ..."
We were first to point out that the NYT's characterization of an old North Korean
missile site as "deception" was pure nonsense. Newsweek
, 38north.org , NKNews.org ,
The Nation and others now also condemned the neo-conned NYT propaganda.
The war let to the loss of Netanyahoo's majority in the Knesset. He is now trying to stall new
elections in which he could lose his job.
Trump's Middle East policy is in total disarray. Nothing is working as planned. Netanyahoo
will probebaly fall. Saudi Arabia will not make nice with Qatar. There will be no Arab NATO or
anti-Iran alliance. MbS is despised but will stay on the job. Yemen is starving. The U.S. is at
odds with Turkey over support for the Kurds. Trumps knows and
hates this :
The adviser who talks to Trump said: "If the president had his way, he would stay entirely
out of the Middle East and all of the problems."
The piece was the first to point out the difference between the Saudi investigation, which
put blame on Major General Ahmed al-Asiri, and the names on the U.S. sanction list published at
the same time. The Treasury declaration blamed MbS advisor Saud al-Qahtani as mastermind
behind the Khashoggi murder, while the Saudis carefully avoided that. We now learn that the
person in the U.S. National Security Council who put al-Qahtani on the list was fired :
On Friday evening, Kirsten Fontenrose, the National Security Council official in charge of
U.S. policy toward Saudi Arabia, resigned, administration officials said. The circumstances
of her departure weren't clear. But Fontenrose had previously been placed on administrative
leave, according to people familiar with the matter.
Fontenrose had played a key role in the administration's decision about which Saudis to
sanction in response to Khashoggi's killing, these people said.
I suspect that MbS tried, via Trump's son-in-law Kushner, to save al-Qahtani (and
himself). Trump clearly wanted to do that, but Fontenrose blew the plan by pushing for
al-Qahtani to be sanctioned. The CIA also sabotaged the planned exculpation of MbS by 'leaking'
its judgment about MbS' personal responsibility to the press. ( WaPo published the CIA
conclusion
in Arabic , another point the Saudis will hate.) Trump is furious that the CIA (again)
sabotaged his policy:
Asked about reports that the CIA had assessed involvement by Mohammed, the president said:
"They haven't assessed anything yet. It's too early."
The Express UK reports that Russia and Saudi Arabia's 'long-term relationship' will not
only survive, but grow, regardless of geopolitical turmoil and internal Saudi scandal as the
energy interests between both nations bind them together.
... ... ...
But IHS Market vice chairman Daniel Yergin said the decision was unlikely to jeopardise
the relationship between the two allies.
The Saudis have faced significant international criticism in the wake of the killing of
journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Turkey.
Speaking to CNBC, Mr Yergin made it clear that Moscow and Riyadh would continue to be
closely aligned irrespective of external factors.
He explained: "I think it's intended to be a long-term relationship and it started off
about oil prices but you see it taking on other dimensions, for instance, Saudi investment in
Russian LNG (liquefied natural gas) and Russian investment in Saudi Arabia.
"I think this is a strategic relationship because it's useful to both countries."
Saudi Arabia and Russia are close, especially as a result of their pact in late 2016,
along with other OPEC and non-OPEC producers, to curb output by 1.8 million barrels per day
in order to prevent prices dropping too far – but oil markets have changed since then,
largely as a result.
The US criticised OPEC, which Saudi Arabia is the nominal leader of, after prices
rose.
Markets have fluctuated in recent weeks as a result of fears over a possible drop in
supply, as a result of US sanctions on Iran, and an oversupply, as a result of increased
production by Saudi Arabia, Russia and the US, which have seen prices fall by about 20
percent since early October.
Saudi Arabia has pumped 10.7 million barrels per day in October, while the figure for
Russia and the US was 11.4 million barrels in each case.
Mr Yergin said: "It's the big three, it's Saudi Arabia, Russia and the US, this is a
different configuration in the oil market than the traditional OPEC-non-OPEC one and so the
world is having to adjust."
BP Group Chief Executive Bob Dudley told CNBC: "The OPEC-plus agreement between OPEC and
non-OPEC producers including Russia and coalition is a lot stronger than people
speculate.
"I think Russia doesn't have the ability to turn on and off big fields which can happen in
the Middle East.
"But I fully expect there to be coordination to try to keep the oil price within a certain
fairway."
Markets rallied by two percent on Monday off the back of the
Saudi decision to cut production , which it justified by citing uncertain global oil
growth and associated oil demand next year.
It also suggested
waivers granted on US sanctions imposed on Iran which have been granted to several
countries including China and Japan was a reason not to fear a decline in supply.
Also talking to CNBC, Russia's Oil Minister Alexander Novak indicated a difference of
opinion between Russia and the Saudis, saying it was too soon to cut production, highlighting
a lot of volatility in the oil market.
He added: "If such a decision is necessary for the market and all the countries are in
agreement, I think that Russia will undoubtedly play a part in this.
"But it's early to talk about this now, we need to look at this question very
carefully."
"... Finally, unlike Yergin and other historians of the oil industry, Auzanneau frames his tale of petroleum as a life cycle, with germination followed by spring, summer, and autumn. There is a beginning and a flourishing, but there is also an end. This framing is extremely helpful, given the fact that the world is no longer in the spring or summer of the oil era. We take petroleum for granted, but it's time to start imagining a world, and daily life, without it. ..."
Similarly, the real story of oil is of fortunes lost, betrayal, war, espionage, and
intrigue. In the end, inevitably, the story of oil is a story of depletion. Petroleum is a
nonrenewable resource, a precious substance that took tens of millions of years to form and
that is gone in a comparative instant as we extract and burn it. For many decades, oil-hungry
explorers, using ever-improving technology', have been searching for ever-deteriorating
prospects as the low- hanging fin its of planet Earth's primordial oil bounty gradually
dwindle. Oil wells have been shut in, oil fields exhausted, and oil companies bankrupted by the
simple, inexorable reality of depletion.
It is impossible to understand the political and economic history of the past 150 years
without taking account of a central character in the drama -- oil, the magical
wealth-generating substance, a product of ancient sunlight and tens of millions of years of
slow geological processes, whose tragic fate is to be dug up and combusted once and for all.
leaving renewed poverty in its wake. With Oil, Power, and War, Matthieu Auzanneau has produced
what I believe is the new definitive work on oil and its historic significance, supplanting
even Daniel Yergin's renowned The Prize, for reasons I'll describe below.
The importance of oil's role in shaping the modern world cannot be overstated. Prior to the
advent of fossil fuels, firewood was humanity's main fuel. But forests could be cut to the last
tree (many were), and wood was bulky. Coal offered some economic advantages over wood. But it
was oil -- liquid and therefore easier to transport; more energy-dense; and simpler to store --
that turbocharged the modern industrial age following the development of the first commercial
wells around the year 1860.
John D. Rockefeller's cutthroat, monopolist business model shaped the early industry, which
was devoted mostly to the production of kerosene for lamp oil (gasoline was then considered a
waste product and often discarded into streams or rivers). But roughly forty years later, when
Henry Ford developed the automobile assembly line, demand for black gold was suddenly as
explosive as gasoline itself.
Speaking of explosions, the role of petroleum in the two World Wars and the armament
industry' in general deserves not just a footnote in history books but serious and detailed
treatment such as it receives in this worthy volume. Herein we learn how Imperial Japan and
Nazi Germany literally ran out of gas while the Allies rode to victory in planes, ships, and
tanks burning refined US crude. Berlin could be cut off from supplies in Baku or North Africa,
and Tokyo's tanker route from Borneo could be blockaded -- but no one could interrupt the
American war machine's access to Texas tea.
In the pages that follow, we learn about the origin of the decades-long US alliance with
Saudi Arabia, the development of OPEC, the triumph of the petrodollar, and the reasons for both
the Algerian independence movement and the Iranian Revolution of 1979. Auzanneau traces the
postwar growth of the global economy and the development of consumerism, globalization, and car
culture. He recounts how the population explosion and the Green Revolution in agriculture
reshaped demographics and politics globally -- and explains why both depended on petroleum. We
learn why Nixon cut the US dollar's tether to the gold standard just a year after US oil
production started to decline, and how the American economy began to rely increasingly on debt.
The story of oil takes ever more fascinating turns -- with the fall of the Soviet Union after
its oil production hit a snag; with soaring petroleum prices in 2008 coinciding with the onset
of the global financial crisis; and with wars in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen erupting as global
conventional oil output flatlined.
As I alluded to above, comparisons will inevitably be drawn between Oil, Power, and War and
Daniel Yergin's Pulitzer-winning "The Prize", published in 1990. It may be helpful therefore to
point out four of the most significant ways this work differs from Yergin's celebrated tour de
force.
The most obvious difference between the two books is simply one of time frame. The Prize's
narrative stops in the 1980s, while Oil, Power, and War also covers the following critical
decades, which encompass the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the first Gulf War, 9/11, the US
invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, the global financial crisis of 2008. and major shifts within
the petroleum industry as it relies ever less on conventional crude and ever more on
unconventional resources such as bitumen (Canada's oil sands), tight oil (also called shale
oil), and deepwater oil.
Finally, unlike Yergin and other historians of the oil industry, Auzanneau frames his
tale of petroleum as a life cycle, with germination followed by spring, summer, and autumn.
There is a beginning and a flourishing, but there is also an end. This framing is extremely
helpful, given the fact that the world is no longer in the spring or summer of the oil era. We
take petroleum for granted, but it's time to start imagining a world, and daily life, without
it.
Taken together, these distinctions indeed make Oil, Power, and War the definitive work on
the history of oil -- no small achievement, but a judgment well earned.
Over the past decade, worrisome signs of global oil depletion have been obscured by the
unabashed enthusiasm of energy analysts regarding growing production in the United States from
low-porosity source rocks. Termed "light tight oil," this new resource has been unleashed
through application of the technologies of hydrofracturing (tracking) and horizontal
drilling.
US liquid fuels production has now surpassed its previous peak in 1970, and well-regarded
agencies such as the Energy Information Administration are forecasting continued tight oil
abundance through mid-century.
Auzanneau titles his discussion of this phenomenon (in chapter 30), "Nonconventional
Petroleum to the Rescue?" -- and frames it as a question for good reason: Skeptics of tight oil
hyperoptimism point out that most production so far has been unprofitable. The industry has
managed to stay in the game only due to low interest rates (most companies are heavily in debt)
and investor hype. Since source rocks lack permeability, individual oil wells deplete very
quickly -- with production in each well declining on the order of 70 percent to 90 percent in
the first three years. That means that relentless, expensive drilling is needed in order to
release the oil that's there. Thus the tight oil industry can be profitable only if oil prices
are very high -- high enough, perhaps, to hobble the economy -- and if drilling is concentrated
in the small core areas within each of the productive regions. But these "sweet spots" are
being exhausted rapidly. Further, with tight oil the energy returned on the energy invested in
drilling and completion is far less than was the case with American petroleum in its
heyday.
It takes energy to fell a tree, drill an oil well, or manufacture a solar panel. We depend
on the energy payback from those activities to run society. In the miraculous years of the late
twentieth century, oil delivered an averaged 50:1 energy payback. It was this, more than
anything else, that made rapid economic growth possible, especially for the nations that were
home to the world's largest oil reserves and extraction companies. As the world relies ever
less on conventional oil and ever more on tight oil, bitumen, and deepwater oil, the overall
energy payback of the oil industry is declining rapidly. And this erosion of energy return is
reflected in higher overall levels of debt in the oil industry and lower overall financial
profitability.
Meanwhile the industry is spending ever less on exploration -- for two reasons. First, there
is less money available for that purpose, due to declining financial profitability; second,
there seems comparatively little oil left to be found: Recent years have seen new oil
discoveries dwindle to the lowest level since the 1940s. The world is not about to run out of
oil. But the industry that drove society in the twentieth century to the heights of human
economic and technological progress is failing in the twenty-first century.
Today some analysts speak of "peak oil demand." The assumption behind the phrase is that
electric cars will soon reduce our need for oil, even as abundance of supply is assured by
fracking. But the world is still highly dependent on crude oil. We have installed increasing
numbers of solar panels and wind turbines, but the transition to renewable is going far too
slowly either to avert catastrophic climate change or to fully replace petroleum before
depletion forces an economic crisis. While we may soon see more electric cars on the road,
trucking, shipping, and aviation will be much harder to electrify. We haven't really learned
yet how to make the industrial world work without oil. The simple reality is that the best days
of the oil business, and the oil-fueled industrial way of life, are behind us. And we are not
ready for what comes next.
Colonel Salam , what do you think of retired general Abizad becoming new US' ambassador to KSA. To me installing an Arabic speaking
Arab American general as the new ambassador to the kingdom sounds like the Borg is becoming concerned with kingdom' stability
when changes come. They probably don't want to repeat the mistake of keeping Sullivan during IRI. So sorry for OT.
Oil, Power, and War is a story of the dreams and hubris that spawned an era of
economic chaos, climate change, war, and terrorism -- as well as an eloquent framing from which
to consider our options as our primary source of power, in many ways irreplacable, grows ever
more constrained.
In this sweeping, unabashed history of oil, Matthieu Auzanneau takes a fresh,
thought-provoking look at the way oil interests have commandeered politics and economies,
changed cultures, disrupted power balances across the globe, and spawned wars. He upends
commonly held assumptions about key political and financial events of the past 150 years, and
he sheds light on what our oil-constrained and eventually post-oil future might look
like.
Oil, Power, and War follows the oil industry from its heyday when the first oil
wells were drilled to the quest for new sources as old ones dried up. It traces the rise of the
Seven Sisters and other oil cartels and exposes oil's key role in the crises that have shaped
our times: two world wars, the Cold War, the Great Depression, Bretton Woods, the 2008
financial crash, oil shocks, wars in the Middle East, the race for Africa's oil riches, and
more. And it defines the oil-born trends shaping our current moment, such as the jockeying for
access to Russia's vast oil resources, the search for extreme substitutes for declining
conventional oil, the rise of terrorism, and the changing nature of economic growth.
We meet a long line of characters from John D. Rockefeller to Dick Cheney and Rex Tillerson,
and hear lesser-known stories like how New York City taxes were once funneled directly to banks
run by oil barons. We see how oil and power, once they became inextricably linked, drove
actions of major figures like Churchill, Roosevelt, Stalin, Hitler, Kissinger, and the Bushes.
We also learn the fascinating backstory sparked by lesser-known but key personalities such as
Calouste Gulbenkian, Abdullah al-Tariki, and Marion King Hubbert, the once-silenced oil
industry expert who warned his colleagues that oil production was facing its peak.
Oil, Power, and War is a story of the dreams and hubris that spawned an era of
economic chaos, climate change, war, and terrorism -- as well as an eloquent framing from which
to consider our options as our primary source of power, in many ways irreplacable, grows ever
more constrained.
The book has been translated from the highly acclaimed French title, Or Noir .
My guess is that much of KSA will look a lot like the shabby end of Yemen before too long. This will perhaps strand some assets.
Once the House of Saud fragments further among competing clans/factions (Faisal, Sudairi, Abdullah, Bin Sultans) things will hasten.
Collapse is preceded by intra-elite rivalry over a shrinking pie, so to speak.
Caspian Report has a nice set on KSA if you look for them. Here's one- https://youtu.be/9tHwvZ9XDLU
And another- https://youtu.be/hh8isVX3H9w
Hightrekker once commented something quite apt, along the lines of~ 'And all this is probably like the Austrians in 1913 arguing
about who their next Habsburg Ruler is going to be'.
From what I understand there are 4000 Saudi princes (a suspiciously round number, so likely an approximate). It all should
make for a very bloody affair. Hopefully Iran will do the right thing and kick 'em while they're down.
It's interesting that Clapper is against abandoned by Trump Iran deal.
Tramp administration is acting more like Israeli marionette here, because while there a
strategic advantage in crushing the Iranian regime for the USA and making a county another Us
vassal in the middle East, the cost for the country might be way to high (especially if we count
in the cost of additional antagonizing Russia and China). Trump might jump into the second
Afghanistan, which would really brake the back of US military -- crushing Iran military is one
thing, but occupying such a county is a very costly task. And that might well doom Israel in the
long run as settlers policies now created really antagonized, unrecognizable minority with a high
birth rate.
Vanishing one-by-one of partners are given due to collapse of neoliberalism as an ideology.
Nobody believes that neoliberalism is the future, like many believed in 80th and early 90th. This
looks more and more like a repetion of the path of the USSR after 1945, when communist ideology
was discredited and communist elite slowly fossilized. In 46 years from its victory in WWII the
USSR was dissolved. The same might happen with the USA in 50 years after winning the Cold
War.
Notable quotes:
"... a vanishing one by one of American partners who were previously supportive of U.S. leadership in curbing Iran, particularly its nuclear program. ..."
"... The United States risks losing the cooperation of historic and proven allies in the pursuit of other U.S. national security interests around the world, far beyond Iran. ..."
Only well calibrated multilateral political, economic and diplomatic pressure brought to
bear on Iran with many and diverse partners will produce the results we seek.
"Then there were none" was Agatha Christie's most memorable mystery about a house party in
which each guest was killed off one by one. Donald Trump's policy toward Iran has resulted in
much the same: a vanishing one by one of American partners who were previously supportive
of U.S. leadership in curbing Iran, particularly its nuclear program.
Dozens of states, painstakingly cultivated over decades of American leadership in blocking
Iran's nuclear capability, are now simply gone. One of America's three remaining allies on
these issues, Saudi Arabia, has become a central player in American strategy throughout the
Middle East region. But the Saudis, because of the Jamal Khashoggi killing and other reasons,
may have cut itself out of the action. The United Arab Emirates, so close to the Saudis, may
also fall away.
Such paucity of international support has left the Trump administration dangerously
isolated. "America First" should not mean America alone. The United States risks losing the
cooperation of historic and proven allies in the pursuit of other U.S. national security
interests around the world, far beyond Iran.
... ... ...
European allies share many of our concerns about Iran's regional activities, but they
strongly oppose U.S. reinstitution of secondary sanctions against them. They see the Trump
administration's new sanctions as a violation of the nuclear agreement and UN Security Council
resolutions and as undermining efforts to influence Iranian behavior. The new sanctions and
those applied on November 5 only sap European interest in cooperating to stop Iran.
... ... ...
The United States cannot provoke regime change in Iran any more than it has successfully in
other nations in the region. And, drawing on strategies used to topple governments in Iraq and
Afghanistan, the United States should be wary of launching or trying to spur a military
invasion of Iran.
Lt. Gen. James Clapper (USAF, ret.) is the former Director of National Intelligence.
Thomas R. Pickering is a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Russia and
India.
"... Later, it emerged that QIA and Glencore planned to sell the majority of the stake they had acquired in Rosneft to China's energy conglomerate CEFC, but the deal fell through after Beijing set its sights on CEFC and launched an investigation that saw the removal of its chief executive. The investigation was reportedly part of a wide crackdown on illicit business practices on the part of private Chinese companies favored by Beijing. ..."
Russian VTB, a state-owned bank, funded a significant portion of the Qatar Investment
Authority's acquisition of a stake in oil giant Rosneft , Reuters
reports , quoting nine unnamed sources familiar with the deal.
VTB, however, has denied to Reuters taking any part in the deal.
"VTB has not issued and is not planning to issue a loan to QIA to finance the
acquisition," the bank said in response for a request for comment.
The Reuters sources, however, claim VTB provided a US$6 billion loan to the Qatar sovereign
wealth fund that teamed up with Swiss Glencore to acquire 19.5 percent in Rosneft last year.
Reuters cites data regarding VTB's activity issued by the Russian central bank that shows VTB
lent US$6.7 billion (434 billion rubles) to unnamed foreign entities and the loan followed
another loan of US$5.20 billion (350 billion rubles) from the same central bank.
The news first made
headlines in December, taking markets by surprise, as Rosneft's partial privatization was
expected by most to be limited to Russian investors. The price tag on the stake was around
US$11.57 billion (692 billion rubles), of which Glencore agreed to contribute US$324 million.
The remainder was forked over by the Qatar Investment Authority, as well as non-recourse bank
financing.
Russia's budget received about US$10.55 billion (
710.8 billion rubles ) from the deal, including US$ 270 million (18 billion rubles) in
extra dividends. Rosneft, for its part, got an indirect stake in Glencore of 0.54 percent.
Later, it
emerged that QIA and Glencore planned to sell the majority of the stake they had acquired
in Rosneft to China's energy conglomerate CEFC, but the deal fell through after Beijing set its
sights on CEFC and launched an investigation that saw the removal of its chief executive. The
investigation was reportedly part of a wide crackdown on illicit business practices on the part
of private Chinese companies favored by Beijing.
Seeking protection against possible new U.S. sanctions, Russian energy majors are
heaping pressure on Western oil buyers to use euros instead of dollars for payments, as
well as penalty clauses in contracts.
Russia supplies over 10% of global oil, so severe sanctions could affect crude prices.
Global oil majors further rely on Russia to feed their refineries, especially in Europe and
Asia, so they cannot just walk away from annual contract negotiations.
Also if administration really wants war, Iran is not Ieaq and will fight more efficiently,
while the US army despite technological supreiority is demoralized. nobody believe into the the
building of global neoliberal empire any longer.
Notable quotes:
"... The administration's policy seems sure to fail on its own terms, and it is also the wrong thing to do. ..."
"... If a foreign power waged an economic war against your country, would you be likely to respond to that foreign coercion by effectively taking their side against your own government? Of course not. The idea that Iranians will do the work of their country's enemies by rising up and toppling the regime has always been far-fetched, but it is particularly absurd to think that Iranians would do this after they have just seen their economy be destroyed by the actions of a foreign government. ..."
"... People normally do not respond to economic hardship and diminishing prospects by risking their lives by starting a rebellion against the state. ..."
"... Making Iranians poorer and more miserable isn't going to encourage them to be more politically active, much less rebellious, but will instead force them to focus on getting by. That is likely to depress turnout at future elections, and that is more likely to be good news for hard-line candidates in the years to come. ..."
"... Iran hawks typically don't understand the country that they obsess over, so perhaps it is not surprising that they haven't thought any of this through, but their most glaring failure is not taking into account the importance of nationalism. ..."
Originally
from: The Futility of Trump's Iran Policy By Daniel LarisonNovember
6, 2018, 10:54 AM • The administration's policy seems sure to fail on its
own terms, and it is also the wrong thing to do.
The Trump administration's plan to throttle
the Iranian economy is as poorly-conceived as it is cruel:
"For ordinary people, sanctions mean unemployment, sanctions mean becoming poor, sanctions
mean the scarcity of medicine, the rising price of dollar," said Akbar Shamsodini, an Iranian
businessman in the oil and gas sector who lost his job six months ago as European companies
started to pull out of Iran in fear of US sanctions.
" By imposing these sanctions, they want to force Iranians to rise up in revolt against
their government but in practice, they will only make them flee their country [bold
mine-DL]," he said, adding that ironically it would be Europe that would have to bear the
burden of such a mass migration.
"We're being squashed here as an Iranian youth who studied here, worked here, the only
thing I'm thinking about now is how to flee my country and go to Europe."
If a foreign power waged an economic war against your country, would you be likely to
respond to that foreign coercion by effectively taking their side against your own government?
Of course not. The idea that Iranians will do the work of their country's enemies by rising up
and toppling the regime has always been far-fetched, but it is particularly absurd to think
that Iranians would do this after they have just seen their economy be destroyed by the actions
of a foreign government.
People normally do not respond to economic hardship and diminishing prospects by risking
their lives by starting a rebellion against the state. As Mr. Shamsodini says above, it is
much more likely that they will leave to find a way to make a living elsewhere. All that
strangling Iran's economy will manage to do is push young and ambitious Iranians to go abroad
while inflicting cruel collective punishment on everyone that remains behind. Making
Iranians poorer and more miserable isn't going to encourage them to be more politically active,
much less rebellious, but will instead force them to focus on getting by. That is likely to
depress turnout at future elections, and that is more likely to be good news for hard-line
candidates in the years to come.
Iran hawks typically don't understand the country that they obsess over, so perhaps it
is not surprising that they haven't thought any of this through, but their most glaring failure
is not taking into account the importance of nationalism. When a foreign power tries
dictating terms to another nation on pain of economic punishment, this is bound to provoke
resentment and resistance. Like any other self-respecting nation, Iranians aren't going to
accept being told what to do by a foreign government, and they are much more likely to band
together in solidarity rather than start an uprising against their own government. The stronger
the nationalist tradition there is in a country, the more likely it is that the reaction to
foreign threats will be one of defiance and unity. It simply makes no sense to think that the
U.S. can pressure a proud nation to capitulate like this.
The administration's policy seems sure to fail on its own terms, and it is also the wrong
thing to do. President Washington exhorted his countrymen in his Farewell Address : "Observe good
faith and justice towards all nations; cultivate peace and harmony with all." The
administration's Iran policy represents the total rejection of that advice. If the U.S.
followed Washington's recommendations, it would not be abrogating an agreement that it had just
negotiated a few years earlier, and it would not be punishing an entire country for the wrongs
of a few. Instead, the U.S. would have built on the success of the earlier negotiations and
would have sought to reestablish normal relations with them.
Alastair Crooke (former UK dip and MI6) knows more about ME than any other white man. He
describes how Jared Kushner became Trump's stovepipe of disinformation on behalf of Netanyahu
and MBS.
The economic sanctions on Iran will be much tighter, beyond what they were, before the
nuclear agreement was signed. "Hit them in their pockets", Netanyahu advised Trump: "if you
hit them in their pockets, they will choke; and when they choke, they will throw out the
ayatollahs"".
This was another bit of 'stovepiped' advice passed directly to the US President. His
officials might have warned him that it was fantasy. There is no example of sanctions alone
having toppled a state; and whilst the US can use its claim of judicial hegemony as an
enforcement mechanism, the US has effectively isolated itself in sanctioning Iran: Europe
wants no further insecurity. It wants no more refugees heading to Europe.
However, the primary problem would not even be the doubtful profitability, but rather
logistics. Iran's oil fields are in the south. To reach Russia, the oil would have to make its
way to Caspian ports in the north. Iran has no main pipelines connecting its southern oil
fields with northern ports. These ports do have the infrastructure for oil, but they were built
to receive oil from swap deals with Kazakhstan, Russia and Azerbaijan. They were never meant to
export oil.
Consequently, before any exports could begin, Moscow and Tehran would have to invest in
creating the necessary storage and loading infrastructure at the Iranian ports. Iran would also
need to upgrade its transport infrastructure to deliver oil from the south to the Caspian
seashore -- that would also present a challenge.
Finally,
Russia and Iran would have to substantially increase their tanker fleets in the landlocked
Caspian Sea to exchange large quantities of oil, as the local geography does not allow for the
use of large tankers. In this situation, a planned railroad connection between Russia and Iran via
Azerbaijan could increase the volume of oil moved from Iran to Russia, but this project has not
been completed.
Under these circumstances, Russian officials are demonstrating far greater interest in
resuming the so-called oil-for-products program, under which Russia would broker Iranian oil
abroad in exchange for Iran buying Russian industrial machinery and providing investment
opportunities to Moscow.
Russia and Iran have discussed an oil-for-products initiative for years. Initially, it was
supposed to help Tehran evade the oil trade embargo imposed by the United States, European
Union (EU) and their partners. When those sanctions were lifted as part of the 2015 nuclear
deal, the initiative was expected to compensate for Iran's lack of financial reserves, which
kept Tehran from paying for imports of Russian equipment in hard currency. However, after US
President Donald Trump
withdrew from the deal in 2018 and began reimposing sanctions, the oil-for-products deal
again gained importance as a way to evade sanctions.
In November 2017, Moscow received 1 million barrels from Iran as payment for railroad
equipment imported from Russia, and arrangements were in the works for Russia to buy an
additional 5 million tons of oil in 2018. Indeed, in January and February there were reports of
some oil dispatches transferred from Iran to Russian companies. Yet, by March, they stopped . Moscow still plans
to revive the deal in 2019, though it might never happen.
On the one hand, Russia has had problems finding buyers for Iranian oil.
Concerned about the US sanctions, potential clients refused to purchase it. On the other hand,
Iran's main hopes for sanctions relief are more connected to the EU than Russia. There is a
strong belief in Tehran that Europeans will be able to offset the negative influence of US
economic pressure on Iran. The EU wants to salvage as much of the nuclear deal as possible. Yet
the strength of Tehran's belief is hard to explain: Large EU companies have already pulled out
of Iran. The EU officials Al-Monitor interviewed openly said that Tehran should not expect a
lot from Brussels.
Though Russian and Iranian officials have an on-again, off-again marriage of convenience,
Iran's general public and its elite strongly oppose any substantial deals with Moscow. Russia
is not trusted or welcomed by Iranians and the countries have a long history of
differences . A well-informed and respected Iranian expert on Tehran's foreign policy told
Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity that a Russian oil-for-products initiative would be
difficult to implement.
"A large part of Iranian society believes that giving our oil to Russia -- especially at the
discounted prices -- is no better than agreeing to Trump's demands," he said.
The U.S. is going for the jugular with new Iran sanctions intended to punish those who trade
with Teheran. But the U.S. may have a fight on its hands in a possible post- WWII
turning-point...
The next step in the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran has
begun, with the most severe sanctions being re-imposed on the Islamic Republic. Crucially, they
apply not only to Iran but to anyone who continues to do business with it.
It's not yet clear how disruptive this move will be. While the U.S. intention is to isolate
Iran, it is the U.S. that could wind up being more isolated. It depends on the rest of the
world's reaction, and especially Europe's.
The issue is so fraught that disputes over how to apply the new sanctions have even divided
Trump administration officials.
The administration is going for the jugular this time. It wants to force Iranian exports of
oil and petrochemical products down to as close to zero as possible. As the measures are now
written, they also exclude Iran from the global interbank system known as SWIFT.
It is hard to say which of these sanctions is more severe. Iran's oil exports have already
started falling. They
peaked at 2.7 million barrels a day last May -- just before Donald Trump pulled the U.S.
out of the six-nation accord governing Iran's nuclear programs. By early September oil exports
were averaging a million
barrels a day less .
In August the U.S. barred Iran's purchases of
U.S.-dollar denominated American and foreign company aircraft and auto parts. Since then the
Iranian rial has crashed to
record lows and inflation has risen above 30 percent.
Revoking Iran's SWIFT privileges will effectively cut the nation out of the
dollar-denominated global economy. But there are moves afoot, especially by China and Russia,
to move away from a dollar-based economy.
The SWIFT issue has caused infighting in the
administration between Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and John Bolton, Trump's national security
adviser who is among the most vigorous Iran hawks in the White House. Mnuchin might win a
temporary delay or exclusions for a few Iranian financial institutions, but probably not much
more.
On Sunday, the second round of sanctions kicked in since Trump withdrew the U.S. from the
2015 Obama administration-backed, nuclear agreement, which lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange
for stringent controls on its nuclear program. The International Atomic Energy Agency has
repeatedly certified that the deal is working and the other signatories -- Britain, China,
France, Germany and Russia have not pulled out and have resumed trading with Iran. China and
Russia have already said they will ignore American threats to sanction it for continuing
economic relations with Iran. The key question is what will America's European allies
do?
Europeans React
Europe has been unsettled since Trump withdrew in May from the nuclear accord. The European
Union is developing a trading mechanism to get around U.S. sanctions. Known as a
Special Purpose Vehicle , it would allow European companies to use a barter system similar
to how Western Europe traded with the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
Juncker: Wants Euro-denominated trading
EU officials have also been lobbying to preserve
Iran's access to global interbank operations by excluding the revocation of SWIFT privileges
from Trump's list of sanctions. They count
Mnuchin,who is eager to preserve U.S. influence in the global trading system, among their
allies. Some European officials, including Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European
Commission, propose making the euro a global trading currency
to compete with the dollar.
Except for Charles de Gaulle briefly pulling France out of NATO in 1967
and Germany and France voting on the UN Security Council against the U.S. invading Iraq in
2003, European nations have been subordinate to the U.S. since the end of the Second World
War.
The big European oil companies, unwilling to risk the threat of U.S. sanctions, have already
signaled they intend to ignore the EU's new trade mechanism. Total SA, the French petroleum
company and one of Europe's biggest, pulled
out of its Iran operations several months ago.
Earlier this month a U.S. official confidently
predicted there would be little demand among European corporations for the proposed barter
mechanism.
Whether Europe succeeds in efforts to defy the U.S. on Iran is nearly beside the point from
a long-term perspective. Trans-Atlantic damage has already been done. A rift that began to
widen during the Obama administration seems about to get wider still.
Asia Reacts
Asian nations are also exhibiting resistance to the impending U.S. sanctions. It is unlikely
they could absorb all the exports Iran will lose after Nov. 4, but they could make a
significant difference. China, India, and South Korea are the first, second, and third-largest
importers of Iranian crude; Japan is sixth. Asian nations may also try to work around the U.S.
sanctions regime after Nov. 4.
India is considering purchases of Iranian crude via a barter system or denominating
transactions in rupees. China, having already said it would ignore the U.S. threat, would like
nothing better than to expand yuan-denominated oil trading, and this is not a hard call: It is
in a protracted trade war with the U.S., and an oil-futures market launched in Shanghai last
spring already claims roughly 14 percent of the global market for "front-month" futures --
contracts covering shipments closest to delivery.
Trump: Unwittingly playing with U.S. long-term future
As with most of the Trump administration's foreign policies, we won't know how the new
sanctions will work until they are introduced. There could be waivers for nations such as
India; Japan is on record asking for one. The E.U.'s Special Purpose Vehicle could prove at
least a modest success at best, but this remains uncertain. Nobody is sure who will win the
administration's internal argument over SWIFT.
Long-term Consequences for the U.S.
The de-dollarization of the global economy is gradually gathering momentum. The orthodox
wisdom in the markets has long been that competition with the dollar from other currencies will
eventually prove a reality, but it will not be one to arrive in our lifetimes. But with
European and Asian reactions to the imminent sanctions against Iran it could come sooner than
previously thought.
The coalescing of emerging powers into a non-Western alliance -- most significantly China,
Russia, India, and Iran -- starts to look like another medium-term reality. This is driven by
practical rather than ideological considerations, and the U.S. could not do more to encourage
this if it tried. When Washington withdrew from the Iran accord, Moscow and Beijing immediately
pledged to support Tehran by staying with its terms.If the U.S. meets significant resistance,
especially from its allies, it could be a turning-point in post-Word War II U.S.
dominance.
Supposedly Intended for New Talks
All this is intended to force Iran back to the negotiating table for a rewrite of what Trump
often calls "the worst deal ever." Tehran has made it clear countless times it has no intention
of reopening the pact, given that it has consistently adhered to its terms and that the other
signatories to the deal are still abiding by it.
The U.S. may be drastically overplaying its hand and could pay the price with additional
international isolation that has worsened since Trump took office.
Washington has been on a sanctions binge for years. Those about to take effect seem
recklessly broad. This time, the U.S. risks lasting alienation even from those allies that have
traditionally been its closest.
+ 45
DR
Members
+ 45
28 posts
Posted
Wednesday
at 03:48 AM
On 10/18/2018 at 11:38 PM,
Jan van Eck
said:
The problem that Qatar faces is one of population and geography. Qatar is dominantly Sunni, but
not the really severe branch that envelops KSA. And it sits next door to Bahrain, which is
apparently about 70% Shia. Qatar also juts way out into the Gulf, and is thus a convenient
sea-land bridge from Iran. Were Iran to go for a land invasion of KSA, then crossing into Qatar
with landing craft, or seizing a Qatari airport, is logical. To prevent this, the USA has built
a major air base in Qatar, specifically to cut off this route. That big US base is a natural
(and juicy) target for Iran should a shooting war break out, and the USA join in against Iran
(and that would be logical).
Meanwhile Qatar has this bizarre and unfathomable dysfunctional relationship with MbS, and a
very difficult relationship with Bahrain, which has cut off diplomatic relations and sent the
Qatari diplomats packing, in 2017. Now Iran is under sanctions, which is stressing their cash
receipts. Iran pushes back, against their ideological and religious rivals and enemies the
Sunnis, by threatening to either invade or to sink tankers with gas coming out of Qatar. The
problem for gas LNG tankers is that the stuff is kept docile by bringing the temp down to minus
176 degrees. If you whack an LNG tanker with a torpedo and breach the container spheres, easy
enough to do, then that ship is likely to blow up; one little spark and all that gas will be a
salient lesson for all the others.
The deterrent effect of this will be that nobody will dare to tempt fate by sending in an LNG
tanker. So Iran can shut down LNG traffic without firing a shot, all they have to do is go
crazy and start threatening. Iran has these subs that can go sit on the bottom of the Gulf and
pop up to launch a torpedo, and everyone knows it. That is one heck of a deterrent.
Meanwhile you have Europe now heavily dependent on gas. Either the Europeans continue to
genuflect to the Russians, which some Europeans at least find unpalatable, or they have to find
an alternative source. That is likely going to be the USA. I predict that the aggressions of
the Russians, and the problems of Qatar in any real ability to fill long-term contracts, and the
threat of
force-majeure
hovering in the background, brings Europe to buy US LNG.
Qatar delivered 80 million tons last year, as number 1 LNG exporter by a long shot. Australia
trailed behind at 56 million, followed by Malaysia 26M, Nigeria 21M, Indonesia 16M, USA 13M, Algeria
12M.
Qatar was responsible for 17M tons exported to EU, followed by Algeria at 10.4M. US Liquefaction
capacity is estimated to match the whole Middle East by 2025 with Calcasieu, LA at 4 bcf/day,
Brownsville, TX at 3.6 bcf/day; Plaquemines at 3.4 bcf/day; and Nikiski Alaska at 2.6 Bcf/day for the
Asian market.
BP has its new 'Partnership Fleet', Shell is chartering heavily and owns a large fleet as well.
Gaslog has over 25 modern large capacity vessels on the water, and the order book for 2019-2020
deliveries is extensive, and they will be available for US to EU transport (Tellurian and Cheniere
have already chartered Gaslog ships for their exclusive use)
The catch here is that Russia is delivering 10.8 million tons per year via Yamal, and their
upcoming Arctic 2LNG that will be on the ice in the Arctic circle adding even more to that production.
They have a fleet delivering year round of Teekay and Dynagas ice breaker LNG carriers, and their
primary clients have been Belgium, France and Spain during their debut ice breaking season. They are
centrally located to maximize deliveries to Asia and Europe.
I doubt that Russia will cut off Europe after spending all that money to secure liquefaction and
transport capabilities in the Arctic, but who knows. They are geared up to deliver to Asia, but could
only do so in the Summer months, or during the Winter months with the assistance of a Nuclear
Icebreaker to lead the ships.
Honestly, I hope that Germany completes the Hamburg LNG Terminal quickly and begins buying US LNG
so that we can diversify from our usual Mexico, S Korea, Japan, Spain, Portugal, Chile, Egypt, Jordan
clientele. Germany consumed over 90 million CBM of natural gas last year (controversial because they
stopped 'officially' disclosing the numbers after 2016, these are OECD estimates from the IEA), and
are getting close to Japan's 120 million CBM.
Qatar/Iran tensions could be the perfect storm for a US to EU energy boom.
"... The key point from my POV was the immediate MSM blanket coverage with every detail explained. No investigation, research, doubts or questions. ..."
"... The US MSM is a propaganda tool and they were pre-prepared, so some US deep state group knew that Bin Salman's bodyguard was heading to the consulate and what they planned to do there (and maybe even set them up to do it). ..."
The Saudis also support the system of petrodollars, which basically requires nearly all
international purchases of petroleum to be paid in dollars. Petrodollars in turn enable the
United States to print money for which there is no backing knowing that there will always be
international demand for dollars to buy oil.
I would emphasize this aspect, except that MbS doesn't so much support the PetroDollar as
the PetroYuan, and this is more than troubling for the US since the PetroDollar is essential to
the dollar's world reserve currency status.
Many American economists have expressed alarm at Saudi Arabia's willingness to borrow in
Chinese yuan, as Riyadh's decision could cause other oil-exporting countries to abandon the
U.S. dollar in favor of the "petro-yuan." A marked decline in the use of the U.S. dollar as
the preferred credit-issuing currency by oil-producing countries would greatly weaken the
U.S. dollar's long-term viability as a global reserve currency.
As the United States views its alliance with Saudi Arabia as the lynchpin of its Middle
East strategy, Washington will likely react strongly if Riyadh uses its influence within OPEC
to strengthen the Chinese yuan. As Saudi Arabia remains dependent on U.S. arms sales to
pursue its geopolitical objectives in the Middle East and counter Iran, intense U.S. pressure
would likely cause Riyadh to distance itself from Beijing, limiting economic integration
between the two countries.
It is no coincidence that these statements from the Crown Prince come days after the
official launch of China's Petroyuan. As every historical trend indicates, the world's most
powerful economy dictates which currency will be used in most international transactions.
This continues to be the case with the US in respect of Dollar, but as China gets set to
fully overtake the US as the world's leading economy, the Dollar will inevitably be replaced
by the Yuan.
China's issuing of oil futures contracts in Petroyuan is the clearest indication yet that
China is keen to make its presence as the world's largest energy consumer known and that it
would clearly prefer to purchase oil from countries like Saudi Arabia in its own currency in
the future, quite possibly in the near future.
Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince appears to understand this trajectory in the global energy
markets and furthermore, he realises that in order to be able to leverage the tremendous
amount of US pressure that will come down on Riaydh in order to force Saudi Arbia to avoid
the Petroyuan, Riyadh will need to embrace other potential partners, including China.
More than anything else, the Petroyuan will have an ability to transform Saudi Arabia by
limiting its negative international characteristics that Muhammad bin Salman himself
described. As a pseudo-satellite state of the US during the Cold War, Muhammad bin Salman
admitted that his country's relationship to the US was that of subservience. China does not
make political let alone geopolitical demands of its partners, but China is nevertheless keen
to foster de-escalations in tensions among all its partners based on the win-win principles
of peace through prosperity as articulated on a regular basis by President Xi Jinping.
Thus one could see China's policies of political non-interference rub off on a potential
future Saudi partner, in the inverse way that the US policies of ultra-interventionism are
often forced upon its partners. Thus, whatever ideological views Muhammad bin Salman does or
does not have, he clearly knows where the wind is blowing: in the direction of China.
If the Khashoggi Affair was planned as a warning to Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman, then
the US knew exactly what was going to happen in the consulate. It was coupled with an immediate
and orchestrated MSM reaction that was curiously detailed, and delivered at high volume.
Yeah, the US will never get rid of the Saudi regime but will always be dangling the sword
right above their necks, and not just figuratively.
Besides the tangible benefits of the 'strategic' control of oil resources, which the US
believes it needs to control in order to dominate Western Europe and its Asian allies, the
Saudis also function as the CIA's private slush fund for off-the-books operations like
Iran-Contra and many others which surface in the news from time to time. Thus, the CIA
controls such vast sums through the Saudis as to make their budgets effectively
limitless.
During his triumphant tour of the US earlier this year, the Saudi King said something
which I found shocking and incredibly revealing in the way the story dropped like a stone
making absolutely no ripples anywhere in the MSM, nor in the alternative media for that
matter.
When asked about Saudi funding of Wahhabism around the world, he said that 'the allies
(presumably US and UK) had 'asked' the Saudis to 'use their resources' to create the
Madrassas and Wahhabi centers to prevent prevent inroads in Muslim countries by the Soviets
(a premise which is very questionable in the ME context after the fall of Nasser).
Now that seems to be the story of the century because it reveals the operating method of
the CIA wrt the Saudis. And even though MBS was trying to only reveal the distant roots of
the system they put in place, there is absolutely no logical reason why any part of this
system would have been subsequently dismantled; 911 notwithstanding. The continuing
US/Israeli support for and generous use of jihadis in Libya, Syria, etc. only reinforces this
point.
This is ultimately the greatest impediment to anything changing the status quo.
If the consulate was bugged , the Turks must have known the plan to abduct kashooggi.
They let it happen, and now that the abduction turned into a murder, they are accomplice.
US knew exactly what was going to happen in the consulate.
I doubt the US knew "exactly", but they likely knew something bad (a kidnapping
perhaps?) was a strong probability. Alas I wish Khashoggi had been warned. Too it seems
very odd he was willing to set foot in a Saudi embassy anywhere? Maybe Director Haspel can
explain.
Supposedly Khashoggi's smart phone picked it all up and filmed his own murder ??
More likely the room was prepared, and Khashoggi was following US instructions/assurances
in going there. The key point from my POV was the immediate MSM blanket coverage with
every detail explained. No investigation, research, doubts or questions.
The US MSM is a propaganda tool and they were pre-prepared, so some US deep state
group knew that Bin Salman's bodyguard was heading to the consulate and what they planned to
do there (and maybe even set them up to do it).
One question is whether the Halloween show was aimed at removing Bin Salman or just
getting him back in line.
Sibel Edmonds has been following this story from Turkey (she speaks Turkish) and posting her
thoughts and findings on twitter. She seems to think this is about some kind of soft coup
(get rid of MBS b/c getting too cozy with Russia/China, Euroasia). Sibel also says Khashoggi
was actually in Istanbul working with some kind of Soros NGO, maybe for future Color
Revolution/Arab Spring in the Middle East.
Sibel Edmonds @sibeledmonds As Predicted (OnRecord) One Of 3 Objectives in #Scripted
#Khashoggi Case: Get #Trump- Replace BS #RussiaGate with #SaudiGate. (Screenshot Coming In
Reply)- – "Khashoggi fiancee hits at Trump response, warns of 'money' influence"
Sibel Edmonds @sibeledmonds Oct 27
Very Important #Khashoggi Continued: #Khashoggi Relocated To #Turkey To Be a Part of a
Business-ThinkTank-NGO. He set up a business here. He opened Bank Accounts. He bought a
house/expansive Flat. He traveled to #London from #Istanbul paid handsomely by #Neoliberal
#DeepState
Jamal Khashoggi did not die for nothing. His murder was part of the plot to push current
de-facto ruler of the Saudi royal crime family aside.
On the moral side, considering who Khashoggi was, one can only say "serves him right".
However, all the other players involved, the Saudis, Israel, Turkey, and the US, are by no
means morally superior to him. His murder and essential non-reaction by others are useful, as
these events unmasked the hypocrites, who are showing their true colors even as we speak.
Should have added that the Kashoggi murder & extremely strange aftermath, dulled US
political response, smacks of a scene from the film "V for Vendetta."
"There is every indication that the U.S. is not in fact seeking to punish the Saudis for
their alleged role in Khashoggi's apparent murder but instead to punish them for reneging on
this $15 billion deal to U.S. weapons giant Lockheed Martin, which manufactures the THAAD
system.
S-400 gamechanger. / Saudi Plan to Purchase Russian S-400:
@Colin
Wright Thanks for the link. Now we can see that Empire had previously turned against MbS,
and that the scripted Khashoggi affair conveniently arrived on cue – with MbS getting
the full MSM treatment.
In other words the deep state knew exactly what was going to happen in the consulate that
day, set it up and recorded it themselves (nothing to do with Khashoggi's smart phone).
Prince Ahmad bin Abdulaziz, the younger brother of King Salman, has returned to Saudi
Arabia after a prolonged absence in London, to mount a challenge to Crown Prince Mohammed
bin Salman or find someone who can.
The source said that the prince returned "after discussion with US and UK officials",
who assured him they would not let him be harmed and encouraged him to play the role of
usurper.
Meanwhile, in Washington disquiet grows.
Writing in the New York Times, former national security advisor to the Obama
administration and US ambassador to the UN Susan Rice said: "Looking ahead, Washington must
act to mitigate the risks to our own interests. We should not rupture our important
relationship with the kingdom, but we must make clear it cannot be business as usual so
long as Prince Mohammed continues to wield unlimited power.
"It should be United States policy, in conjunction with our allies, to sideline the
crown prince in order to increase pressure on the royal family to find a steadier
replacement," she added.
@Miro23
The mainstream narrative has had "Psyop" written all over it from the first. It wouldn't
surprise me to learn that Khashoggi is still alive and languishing in an undisclosed location
with only the Skripals for company.
@Bill
Jones An interesting bullet-sentence, Bill Jones said to me: "The strange and dulled
aftermath in the US is, I believe, because the lesson was not really meant for US audiences."
Greetings, Bill!
Lessons on dramatic world events are cunningly spun to insouciant &
government-trusting Americans. The weird Jamal Kashoggi murder is an excellent example among
hundreds to choose from!
Fyi, along with FDR administration's cooperation, Zionists helped gin-up war fervor in
order to get the US into World War 2. Such deception resulted in unnecessarily sending-off
another round of American "doughboys" into world war.
Fyr, as recovered from America's Memory Hole Knowledge Disposal / Sewer System," below is
a great Pat Buchanan article titled, "Who forged it?"
"... The fact that the US dollar remains the overwhelming dominant currency for international trade and financial transactions gives Washington extraordinary power over banks and companies in the rest of the world. That's the financial equivalent of a neutron bomb. That might be about to change, though it's by no means a done deal yet. ..."
"... German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas told Handelsblatt, a leading German business daily, "Europe should not allow the U.S. to act over our heads and at our expense. For that reason, it's essential that we strengthen European autonomy by establishing payment channels that are independent of the US, creating a European Monetary Fund and building up an independent SWIFT system ." ..."
"... In addition to the recent statements from the German Foreign Minister, France is discussing expanding the Iran SPV to create a means of insulating the EU economies from illegal extraterritorial sanctions like the secondary sanctions that punish EU companies doing business in Iran by preventing them from using the dollar or doing business in the USA. ..."
"... F. William Engdahl is strategic risk consultant and lecturer, he holds a degree in politics from Princeton University and is a best-selling author on oil and geopolitics, exclusively for the online magazine "New Eastern Outlook." https://journal-neo.org/2018/10/23/the-eu-russia-china-plan-to-avert-iran-oil-sanctions/ ..."
It may well be that the unilateral wrecking ball politics of the Trump Administration are
bringing about a result just opposite from that intended. Washington's decision to abandon the
Iran nuclear agreement and impose severe sanctions on companies trading Iran oil as of 4
November, is creating new channels of cooperation between the EU, Russia, China and Iran and
potentially others. The recent declaration by Brussels officials of creation of an unspecified
Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) to legally avoid US dollar oil trade and thereby US sanctions,
might potentially spell the beginning of the end of the Dollar System domination of the world
economy.
According to reports from the last bilateral German-Iran talks in Teheran on October 17, the
mechanisms of a so-called Special Purpose Vehicle that would allow Iran to continue to earn
from its oil exports, will begin implementation in the next days. At end of September EU
Foreign Policy chief Federica Mogherini confirmed plans to create such an independent trade
channel, noting, "no sovereign country or organization can accept that somebody else decides
with whom you are allowed to
do trade with ."
The SPV plan is reportedly modelled on the Soviet barter system used during the cold war to
avert US trade sanctions, where Iran oil would be in some manner exchanged for goods without
money. The SPV agreement would reportedly involve the European Union, Iran, China and
Russia.
According to various reports out of the EU the new SPV plan involves a sophisticated barter
system that can avoid US Treasury sanctions. As an example, Iran could ship crude oil to a
French firm, accrue credit via the SPV, much like a bank. That could then be used to pay an
Italian manufacturer for goods shipped the other way, without any funds traversing through
Iranian hands or the normal banking system.A multinational European state-backed financial
intermediary would be set up to handle deals with companies interested in Iran transactions and
with Iranian counter-parties. Any transactions would not be transparent to the US, and would
involve euros and sterling rather than dollars.
It's an extraordinary response to what Washington has called a policy of all-out financial
war against Iran, that includes threats to sanction European central banks and the
Brussels-based SWIFT interbank payments network if they maintain ties to Iran after November 4.
In the post-1945 relations between Western Europe and Washington such aggressive measures have
not been seen before.It's forcing some major rethinking from leading EU policy circles.
New Banking Architecture
The background to the mysterious initiative was presented in June in a report titled,
Europe, Iran and Economic Sovereignty: New Banking Architecture in Response to US Sanctions.
The report was authored by Iranian economist Esfandyar Batmanghelidj and Axel Hellman, a Policy
Fellow at the European Leadership Network (ELN), a London-based policy
think tank .
The report proposes its new architecture should have two key elements. First it will be
based on "gateway banks" designated to act as intermediaries between Iranian and EU commercial
banks tied to the Special Purpose Vehicle. The second element is that it would be overseen by
an EU-Office of Foreign Asset Controls or EU-OFAC, modeled on the same at the US Treasury, but
used for facilitating legal EU-Iran trade, not for blocking it. Their proposed EU-OFAC among
other functions would undertake creating certification mechanisms for due diligence on the
companies doing such trade and "strengthen EU legal protections for entities engaged in Iran
trade and investment ."
The SPV reportedly is based on this plan using designated Gateway Banks, banks in the EU
unaffected by Washington "secondary sanctions," as they do not do business in the US and focus
on business with Iran. They might include select state-owned German Landesbanks, certain Swiss
private banks such as the Europäisch-Iranische Handelsbank (EIH), a European bank
established specifically to engage in trade finance with Iran. In addition, select Iran banks
with offices in the EU could be brought in.
Whatever the final result, it is clear that the bellicose actions of the Trump
Administration against trade with Iran is forcing major countries into cooperation that
ultimately could spell the demise of the dollar hegemony that has allowed a debt-bloated US
Government to finance a de facto global tyranny at the expense of others.
EU-Russia-China
During the recent UN General Assembly in New York, Federica Mogherini said the SPV was
designed to facilitate payments related to Iran's exports – including oil –so long
as the firms involved were carrying out legitimate business under EU law. China and Russia are
also involved in the SPV. Potentially Turkey, India and other countries could later join.
Immediately, as expected, Washington has reacted. At the UN US Secretary of State and former
CIA head Mike Pompeo declared to an Iran opposition meeting that he was "disturbed and indeed
deeply disappointed" by the EU plan. Notably he said ""This is one of the of the most
counterproductive measures imaginable for regional and global peace and security." Presumably
the Washington plan for economic war against Iranis designed to foster regional and global
peace and security?
Non-US SWIFT?
One of the most brutal weapons in the US Treasury financial warfare battery is the ability
to force the Brussels-based SWIFT private interbank clearing system to cut Iran off from using
it. That was done with devastating effect in 2012 when Washington pressured the EU to get SWIFT
compliance, a grave precedent that sent alarm bells off around the world.
The fact that the US dollar remains the overwhelming dominant currency for international
trade and financial transactions gives Washington extraordinary power over banks and companies
in the rest of the world. That's the financial equivalent of a neutron bomb. That might be
about to change, though it's by no means a done deal yet.
In 2015 China unveiled its CIPS or China International Payments System. CIPS was originally
viewed as a future China-based alternative to SWIFT. It would offer clearing and settlement
services for its participants in cross-border RMB payments and trade. Unfortunately, a Chinese
stock market crisis forced Beijing to downscale their plans, though a skeleton of
infrastructure is there.
In another area, since late 2017 Russia and China have discussed possible linking their
bilateral payments systems bypassing the dollar. China's Unionpay system and Russia's domestic
payment system, known as Karta Mir, would be
linked directly .
More recently leading EU policy circles have echoed such ideas, unprecedented in the
post-1944 era. In August, referring to the unilateral US actions to block oil and other trade
with Iran, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas told Handelsblatt, a leading German business
daily, "Europe should not allow the U.S. to act over our heads and at our expense. For that
reason, it's essential that we strengthen European autonomy by establishing payment channels
that are independent of the US, creating a European Monetary Fund and building up an
independent SWIFT system ."
A Crack in the Dollar Edifice
How far the EU is willing to defy Washington on the issue of trade with Iran is not yet
clear. Most probably Washington via NSA and other means can uncover the trades of the
EU-Iran-Russia-China SPV.
In addition to the recent statements from the German Foreign Minister, France is discussing
expanding the Iran SPV to create a means of insulating the EU economies from illegal
extraterritorial sanctions like the secondary sanctions that punish EU companies doing business
in Iran by preventing them from using the dollar or doing business in the USA. French Foreign
Ministry spokeswoman, Agnes Von der Muhll, stated that in addition to enabling companies to
continue to trade with Iran, that the SPV would, "create an economic sovereignty tool for the
European Union beyond this one case. It is therefore a long-term plan that will protect
European companies in the future from the effect of illegal extraterritorial
sanctions ."
If this will be the case with the emerging EU Special Purpose Vehicle, it will create a
gaping crack in the dollar edifice. Referring to the SPV and its implications, Jarrett Blanc,
former Obama State Department official involved in negotiating the Iran nuclear agreement noted
that, "The payment mechanism move opens the door to a longer-term degradation of US sanctions
power."
At present the EU has displayed effusive rhetoric and loud grumbling against unilateral US
economic warfare and extraterritorial imposition of sanctions such as those against Russia.
Their resolve to potently move to create a genuine alternative to date has been absent. So too
is the case so far in other respects for China and Russia. Will the incredibly crass US
sanctions war on Iran finally spell the beginning of the end of the dollar domination of the
world economy it has held since Bretton Woods in 1945?
My own feeling is that unless the SPV in whatever form utilizes the remarkable technological
advantages of certain of the blockchain or ledger technologies similar to the US-based XRP or
Ripple, that would enable routing payments across borders in a secure and almost instantaneous
way globally, it won't amount to much. It's not that European IT programmers lack the expertise
to develop such, and certainly not the Russians. After all one of the leading blockchain
companies was created by a Russian-born Canadian named Vitalik Buterin. The Russian Duma is
working on new legislation regarding digital currencies, though the Bank of Russia still seems
staunchly opposed. The Peoples' Bank of China is rapidly developing and testing a national
cryptocurrency, ChinaCoin. Blockchain technologies are widely misunderstood, even in government
circles such as the Russian Central Bank that ought to see it is far more than a new "South Sea
bubble." The ability of a state-supervised payments system to move value across borders,
totally encrypted and secure is the only plausible short-term answer to unilateral sanctions
and financial wars until a more civilized order among nations is possible.
Despite the almost unprecedented divisive nature of Donald J. Trump's presidency, he is
chalking up some impressive foreign policy victories, including finally bringing Beijing to
task over its decades long unfair trade practices, stealing of intellectual property rights,
and rampant mercantilism that has given its state-run companies unfair trade advantages and as
a result seen Western funds transform China to an emerging world power alongside the U.S.
Now, it looks as if Trump's recent tirade against America's European allies over its
geopolitically troubling reliance on Russian gas supply may also be bearing fruit. On Tuesday,
The Wall Street Journal reported that earlier this month German Chancellor Angela Merkel
offered government support to efforts to open up Germany to U.S. gas, in what the report called
"a key concession to President Trump as he tries to loosen Russia's grip on Europe's largest
energy market."
German concession
Over breakfast earlier this month, Merkel told a small group of German lawmakers that the
government had made a decision to co-finance the construction of a $576 million liquefied
natural gas (LNG) terminal in northern Germany, people familiar with the development said.
The project had been postponed for at least a decade due to lack of government support,
according to reports, but is now being thrust to the center of European-U.S. geopolitics.
Though media outlets will mostly spin the development, this is nonetheless a geopolitical and
diplomatic win for Trump who lambasted Germany in June over its Nordstream 2 pipeline deal with
Russia.
In a televised meeting with reporters and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg before a
NATO summit in Brussels,
Trump said at the time it was "very inappropriate" that the U.S. was paying for European
defense against Russia while Germany, the biggest European economy, was supporting gas deals
with Moscow.
Both the tone and openness of Trumps' remarks brought scathing rebukes both at home and
among EU allies, including most media outlets. However, at the end of the day, it appears that
the president made a fair assessment of the situation. Russia, for its part, vehemently denies
any nefarious motives over its gas supply contacts with its European customers, though Moscow's
actions in the past dictate otherwise.
Moscow also claims that the Nordstream 2 gas pipeline is a purely commercial venture. The
$11 billion gas pipeline will stretch some 759 miles (1,222 km), running on the bed of the
Baltic Sea from Russian gas fields to Germany, bypassing existing land routes over Ukraine,
Poland and Belarus. It would double the existing Nord Stream pipeline's current annual capacity
of 55 bcm and is expected to become operational by the end of next year.
Russia, who stands the most to lose not only in terms of regional hegemony, but economically
as well, if Germany pushes through with plans to now build as many as three LNG terminals,
always points out that Russian pipeline gas is cheaper and will remain cheaper for decades
compared to U.S. LNG imports.
While that assessment is correct, what Moscow is missing, or at least not admitting, is a
necessary German acquiescence to Washington. Not only does the EU's largest economy need to
stay out of Trump's anti-trade cross hairs, it still needs American leadership in both NATO and
in Europe as well.
Russian advantages
Without U.S. leadership in Europe, a vacuum would open that Moscow would try to fill, most
likely by more gas supply agreements. However, Russia's gas monopoly in both Germany and in
Europe will largely remain intact for several reasons.
First, Russian energy giant Gazprom, which has control over Russia's network of pipelines to
Europe, supplies close to 40 percent of Europe's gas needs.
Second, Russia's gas exports to Europe rose 8.1 percent last year to a record level of 193.9
bcm, even amid concerns over Russia's cyber espionage allegations, and its activities in Syria,
the Ukraine and other places.
Moreover, Russian gas is indeed as cheap as the country claims and will remain that way for
decades. Using a Henry Hub gas price of $2.85/MMBtu as a base, Gazprom
recently estimated that adding processing and transportation costs, the price of
U.S.-sourced LNG in Europe would reach $6/MMBtu or higher – a steep markup.
Henry Hub gas prices are currently trading at $3.151/MMBtu. Over the last 52-week period
U.S. gas has traded between $2.64/MMBtu and $3.82/MMBtu. Russian gas sells for around $5/MMBtu
in European markets and could even trade at lower prices in the future as Gazprom removes the
commodity's oil price indexation.
"The Saudis say they are countering Iran, which backs the Houthis. But the Houthis are an indigenous group with legitimate grievances,
and the war has only enhanced Iranian influence . As has been obvious for some time, the only solution is a negotiated settlement.
But the Saudis have done their best to sabotage a U.N.-led peace process. Talks planned for Geneva in September failed when Saudi
leaders
would not grant safe travel guarantees to Houthi leaders." Bezos' editorial board at WaPo
---------------
Beneath the largely specious argument that Saudi Arabia has the US by the cojones economically lies the true factor that
has caused the two countries to be glued together.
This factor is the Israeli success in convincing the US government, and more importantly, the American people, that Iran is a
deadly enemy, a menace to the entire world, a reincarnation of Nazi Germany, and that Saudi Arabia, a country dedicated to medieval
methods of operation, is an indispensable ally in a struggle to save the world from Iran. The successful effort to convince us of
the reality of the Iranian menace reflects the previous successful campaign to convince us all that Iraq was also Nazi Germany come
again.
The Iran information operation was probably conceived at the Moshe Dayan Center or some other Israeli think tank. and then passed
on in the form of learned papers and conferences to the Foreign Ministry, the Mossad and the IDF. After adoption as government policy
the Foreign ministry and Zionist organizations closely linked to media ownership in the US and Europe were tasked for dissemination
of the propaganda themes involved. This has been a brilliantly executed plan. The obvious fact that Iran is not presently a threat
to the US has had little effect in countering this propaganda achievement.
Last Saturday morning, the Philadelphia based commentator Michael Smerconish openly asked on his popular talk show why it is that
US policy favors the Sunni Muslims over the Shia. i.e., Saudi Arabia over Iran. To hear that was for me a first. This was an obvious
defiance of the received wisdom of the age. I can only hope that the man does not lose his show.
It is a great irony that the barbaric murder of a personally rather unpleasant but defiant exiled journalist has caused re-examination
of the basis and wisdom of giving strategic protection to a family run dictatorship. pl
Erdogan called the Khashoggi murder brutal and premeditated, but did not reveal any damning audio or video evidence. Elijah Magnier
surmises Erdogan extracted a heavy payment from both the Saudis and the Americans in exchange for his relative silence. We shall
see if the economic pressure on Turkey dissipates in the coming days and weeks.
It appears the central pillar of the Borg creed, so eloquently and precisely described here by Colonel Lang, will survive this
bout of heretical thinking. Will journalists and other members of the press be able to keep challenging the Borg? With Trump so
thoroughly assimilated into the Borg, will the "resistance" keep the issue of Saudi perfidy alive? I have my doubts. The Israeli
information operations machine is a juggernaut. Few have the stamina and will to resist it. But it is a fight worth fighting.
"... It's quite unusual to see such unanimous anti-Saudi reactions from the American political class for the assassination of Mr. Khashoggi – who was just a part-time journalist living in U.S – he was not even an American citizen ..."
"... Oil which is extracted by Fracking method that requires high Oil price above $70 to remain competitive in the global Oil market – by simultaneously sanctioning Iran, Venezuela, and the potential sanction of Saudi Arabia from exporting its Oil, the Trump Administration not only reduces the Global Oil supply which will certainly lead to the rise of Oil price, but also it lowers demand for the US Dollar-Greenback in the global oil market which could lead to subtle but steady devaluation of the US dollar. ..."
"... And perhaps that's what Trump Administration was really aiming for all along; a significant decline of the US Dollar Index and the rise of price of Oil which certainly pleases the American Oil Cartel, though at the expense of Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela – all of which are under some form of U.S sanctions. ..."
"... However gruesome, Mr. Khashoggi's assassination is going to be used by the Trump Administration to help the American Oil Cartel by controlling the Saudi Oil output, hence, to raise the price of Oil and to lower demand for US dollar which is the currency of the global Oil trade. ..."
The overplayed drama of Mr. Khashoggi assassination is going to be used by the American Oil
Cartel to control the Saudis Oil output.
It's quite unusual to see such unanimous anti-Saudi reactions from the American
political class for the assassination of Mr. Khashoggi – who was just a part-time
journalist living in U.S – he was not even an American citizen , so, it's quite
unusual because the same political class remained muted about the Saudis involvement with
ISIS, the bombing and starvation of civilians in Yemen and destruction of Syria, and of
course the Saudis involvement in 9/11 terrorist attack in which 3000 American citizens have
perished in New York, in the heart of America.
So, we must be a bit skeptical about the motive of the American Political Class, as this
again could be just about the OIL Business, but this time around the objective is to help the
American Oil producers as opposed to Oil consumers – with 13.8% of the global daily Oil
production, the US has lately become the world top producer of Crude Oil, albeit, an
expensive Oil which is extracted by Fracking method that requires high Oil price above
$70 to remain competitive in the global Oil market – by simultaneously sanctioning
Iran, Venezuela, and the potential sanction of Saudi Arabia from exporting its Oil, the Trump
Administration not only reduces the Global Oil supply which will certainly lead to the rise
of Oil price, but also it lowers demand for the US Dollar-Greenback in the global oil market
which could lead to subtle but steady devaluation of the US dollar.
And perhaps that's what Trump Administration was really aiming for all along; a
significant decline of the US Dollar Index and the rise of price of Oil which certainly
pleases the American Oil Cartel, though at the expense of Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela
– all of which are under some form of U.S sanctions.
However gruesome, Mr. Khashoggi's assassination is going to be used by the Trump
Administration to help the American Oil Cartel by controlling the Saudi Oil output, hence, to
raise the price of Oil and to lower demand for US dollar which is the currency of the global
Oil trade.
@Alistair History has its weird twists.
Early in WWII FDR was reported that USA oil would be depleted in thirty years time.
So FDR sent Harold L Ickes to Saudi Arabia,where at the end of 1944 the country was made the
USA's main oil supplier.
FDR entertained the then Saud in early 1945 on the cruiser Quincy, laying in the Bitter Lakes
near the Suez Canal.
This Saud and his entourage had never seen a ship before, in any case had never been on board
such a ship.
In his last speech to Congress, seated, FDR did not follow what had been written for him,
but remarked 'that ten minutes with Saud taught him more about zionism than hundreds of
letters of USA rabbi's.
These words do not seem to be in the official record, but one of the speech writers,
Sherwood, quotes them in his book.
Robert E. Sherwood, 'Roosevelt und Hopkins', 1950, Hamburg (Roosevelt and Hopkins, New York,
1948)
If FDR also said to Congress that he would limit jewish migration to Palestine, do not now
remember, but the intention existed.
A few weeks later FDR died, Sherwood comments on on some curious aspects of FDR's death, such
as that the body was cremated in or near Warm Springs, and that the USA people were never
informed that the coffin going from Warm Springs to Washington just contained an urn with
ashes.
At present the USA does not seem to need Saudi oil.
If this causes the asserted cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Israel ?
@Harris ChandlerNow it has made alliances with Israel and between them the tail wags
the dog
The Saudi Royal family and the governments of Israel have always been in cahoots. They
both despise and fear secular governments that are not under their own control in the Middle
East. Witness the fear and dread of both of them of president Nasser in the 1960′s, for
example.
Removing Saudi's contribution of @8.5Mbbls/day from the global oil market would be a blow
that Western countries might not survive.
Looks like somebody in the West want MBS out.
Notable quotes:
"... be honest -- this all seems a bit too convenient for Erdogan, and at a too convenient time. ..."
"... at the moment I cannot believe someone has so much luck like Erdogan has. He stands to gain in the short term, in the long term, tactically and (geo)strategically. From just a stroke of luck, that came to his country. That came to him, for which he didn't even need to get out of his chair? ..."
"... Maybe we're asking the wrong questions. Are factions within the CIA at work, setting up elaborate plans with the ambitious Erdogan to get rid of Trump and MbS, for the sake of what... strategically increasingly important depleting oil fields? ... a better position to strangle Iran? ..."
"... Erdogan doesn't want a Kurdistan martyr in Khasshogi either. He wants to totally controlled-dissent ..."
"... This total psyop, and every piece of 'evidence' in it, is coming from Ankara Intel operatives! ..."
"... Hey, they had two weeks of preparation. You can make a full length Blair Witchcraft in two weeks. ..."
"... Cui bono? Erdogan, Iran Oil transit and EU/RU weapons systems dealers. That's why Germany has jumped on the bandwagon, lol. Expect the whole krew to toe the line, and Putin left with a jumbled mess on the chessboard. ..."
"... Khashoggi has ties to Lockheed Martin through his late uncle Adnan Khashoggi, who used to be one of Saudi Arabia's most powerful weapons dealers. MBS is considering buying Russias S-400 instead of Lockheed Martins 15 billion THADD. Interesting fact but unlikely to be important IMO ..."
"... So regardless of the truth of Khashoggis disappearance there is a Deep State operation in place, the evidence is in the media saturation and persistence and bipartisan support. Its purpose may be as simple as coercing MBS to buy more weapons. Perhaps it may even be that a replacement for MBS even more pro-Israel has been found. ..."
"... Khashoggi is news, because they say its news. They make it news. Why? BC it fits an agenda. Somebody wants MBS out. ..."
"... The bigger play here is bringing turkey back into the western fold. Lose turkey you lose the whole middle east. also, a secondary play - guardianship of Mecca. SA an unreliable partner under mbs. ..."
Khashoggi's murder has transcended questions of foreign policy shaped by values of
democracy, free speech, and due process. The Khashoggi killing raises questions of cold,
unblinking realpolitik.
Three weeks into this affair and with the overwhelming evidence from the Turkish inquiry
and intelligence from US and British services, world leaders have only one question to ask
themselves: is Saudi Arabia safe in the crown prince's hands?
The kingdom is not Libya under Gaddafi. Nor is it Syria under Bashar al-Assad. It is the
world's largest oil producer. It is the region's richest nation.
For better or worse (mainly worse), it is the key Arab state. In the wrong hands, Saudi
Arabia has already proved that it can determine the fate of presidents in Egypt, kidnap
prime ministers from Lebanon, attempt coups in Qatar and, when that fails, blockade it. It
can start wars in Yemen.
The man who runs such a country is therefore a vital strategic Western interest. It is
important that he is mentally stable.
Reuters How the man behind Khashoggi murder ran the killing via Skype
He ran social media for Saudi Arabia's crown prince. He masterminded the arrest of
hundreds of his country's elite. He detained a Lebanese prime minister. And, according to
two intelligence sources, he ran journalist Jamal Khashoggi's brutal killing at the Saudi
consulate in Istanbul by giving orders over Skype.
Posted by: b | Oct 22, 2018 2:45:08 PM | 47
So this guy allegedly working for Public Relations (social media) & security (managing
lists with arrests) for Crown Prince MbS was making absolutely sure that everyone would be
able to follow his actions (attributed to MbS of course). We (the people) were getting fed
minute details of suspects and treatment (during/after the coop in Saudi Arabia) even from the
Alex Jones conspiracy show (been publicly ousted as Fake-News and Mossad ops though since he
was attributing Las Vegas massacre to either MbS or rivals that tried to allegedly assassinate
MbS in Vegas hinting at Iran )
Lo and behold! Las Vegas shooting October 1st 2017. Khassogi murder October 1st
2018! .
Both allegedly MbS involved! Ain't these all suspicious? There is no heaven or hell there is only the.... (let me hear it - The Israeli Intel
Services Sing-Along) sing it with me.... (come on)
Obamabots trying to reverse
history will find it hard to do. That they're trying is significant.
I've seen a few reports musing SKYPE was used during the brief interrogation. If true,
then all advanced intel services will know its content.
Peter AU 1 @55--
Yes, I was aware of that. TASS reports : "Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov told reporters on Monday.
"'Yes, we [had] visits, our interministerial top-level delegation went, there were
meetings,' the diplomat said in response to the question about whether Russia still plans to
attend the summit in the wake of Khashoggi's murder."
Russian and Saudi cooperation in the energy field trumps other events. China will also
attend.
I don't know.
I'm having these waves of suspicions. I wouldn't put the current narrative past MbS at all,
that's for sure. And he deserves everything he currently gets -- foremost over Yemen. But -- be honest -- this all seems a bit too convenient for Erdogan, and at a too convenient
time. Id est, a too in convenient time for his opponent, that was until two weeks ago
holding Erdogan's ambitious head in a bucket of water -- Trump. With the midterms only a few weeks away, look who's holding whose head in that bucket, who
is holding whose feet to the fire.
If this is truly a coincidence, I'm beginning to believe Allah is Turkish. But at the moment I cannot believe someone has so much luck like Erdogan has. He stands to
gain in the short term, in the long term, tactically and (geo)strategically. From just a
stroke of luck, that came to his country. That came to him, for which he didn't even need to
get out of his chair?
Maybe we're asking the wrong questions. Are factions within the CIA at work, setting
up elaborate plans with the ambitious Erdogan to get rid of Trump and MbS, for the
sake of what... strategically increasingly important depleting oil fields? ... a better
position to strangle Iran?
Erdogan wants to be New Caliph. That's all this is. Caliphate wars. MbS is Erdogan's blood
enemy. MbS-IL-US is shading the New Caliphate! Duhh! Erdogan doesn't want a Kurdistan martyr
in Khasshogi either. He wants to totally controlled-dissent The Parable of a Man Walked Into an
Embassy New Revelations. Erdogan wants to be supplicated by US and IL for His permission to
transit Syria and Kurdistan. Erdogan wants to be Putin's go-to guy in Ankara for Assad.
This
total psyop, and every piece of 'evidence' in it, is coming from Ankara Intel operatives! Khashoggi could has as easily been re-dressed in a thwab, then frog-marched under the cameras
into the waiting Mercedes. His discarded clothes could have been paraded in front of Ankara's
street cameras by Turks.
Hey, they had two weeks of preparation. You can make a full length Blair Witchcraft in
two weeks.
Cui bono? Erdogan, Iran Oil transit and EU/RU weapons systems dealers. That's why
Germany has jumped on the bandwagon, lol. Expect the whole krew to toe the line, and Putin
left with a jumbled mess on the chessboard.
BREAKING: 15,000 RABBLE ARMY MARCHES ON TEXAS BORDER! TRUMP-CRUZ MILLION MAN HOUSTON SHOW
SCHEDULED TONIGHT!
It's all pure stress-positioning foreplay! JustGoVote!
Scotch Bingeington , Oct 22, 2018 5:00:53 PM |
link
B, amazing work again, thrilling to read. Though this is a yet unfolding story, you manage to
write about it in a profound way.
Regarding the manner in which MbS operates here and subsequently reacts towards other
people's reactions is certainly telling, at least to me. First off, the coercion –
"come back or else " – flat out. The ruthlessness vis-à-vis the victim, the
complete disregard for that individual's life. The crassness of the methods applied. The
carelessness concerning the risks and the half-assed way in which this exercise, by and
large, was carried out. Once word got out, being utterly taken by surprise that this murder
should draw so much attention and should shock and outrage people – like, at all!
Followed by, of course, a sudden switch from ever-so-charming to furious rage.
That's textbook psychopathic behavior. MbS is a psychopath. I don't mean that as an insult,
but as the descriptive term and category that it is. It was already palpable in all the other
incidents, which was duly pointed out here by people at the Moon. To me, it's also in his
eyes. But the thing is, as such, MbS is a befitting representation of his country. The
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the way that it works, how it's organized, its history, its outlook
on the world – it's the equivalent among states of a psychopath. I certainly agree, the
sooner MbS gets kicked off the stage, the better for them and for us. But he'll be replaced
and SA will still be the equivalent among states of a psychopath – and act accordingly.
There's much more to be done than just put an end to MbS' games. In that vein, I'd be
appalled if Russia were to seriously consider sucking up to SA should they break away from
the US orbit.
On another aspect: I don't really see how this would seriously upset Trump. Sure, it's a huge
challenge and a lot of accommodating will have to be done, which is always annoying. But if
Congress were to take action, why shouldn't he give in and play along?
At long last, Valdai Club questions about Saudi-Russian relations were added to transcript.
Here is the relevant passage, which mostly repeats what was posted from news stories:
Putin: "If someone understands it and believes that a murder has been committed, then I
hope that some evidence will be presented and we will adopt relevant decisions based on this
evidence. This gives me a pretext to say something else.
"From time to time, there are steps taken against Russia and even sanctions are imposed,
as I have repeatedly said, on the basis of flimsy excuses and pretexts. They groundlessly
claim that we have allegedly used chemical weapons, even though, incidentally, we have
destroyed our chemical weapons, while the United States has failed to do so despite the
obligation to that effect it assumed.
"So, there is no proof against Russia but steps are being taken. According to claims, the
murder was committed in Istanbul, but no steps are being taken.
"Uniform approaches to problems of this kind should be sorted. To reiterate: Our policy
towards Saudi Arabia has evolved over a long period of time, over many years. Of course, it
is a misfortune that a man has disappeared, but we must understand what has really
happened."
The policy investment "over many years" isn't one Russia will suddenly jettison. Yemen is
obviously a much greater tragedy but Russian-Saudi relations haven't suffered -- Geopolitics
creates strange bed-fellows. Russia's international relations are built upon fundamental
principles of International Law of which the sanctity of Sovereignty reigns supreme. As much
as we may dislike it, the Khashoggi Affair falls within the realm of an internal Saudi affair
although it occurred in Turkey; thus, it's up to Saudis to solve. Putin's pointing to the
Double Standards relates to that reality. Would Russia sell weapons for Saudi to use on
Yemen? I have no idea, although I'd like to think it wouldn't. It's quite possible some new
inroads have opened for Russian diplomacy, but they remain hidden from public.
Khashoggi has ties to Lockheed Martin through his late uncle Adnan Khashoggi, who used to
be one of Saudi Arabia's most powerful weapons dealers. MBS is considering buying Russias
S-400 instead of Lockheed Martins 15 billion THADD. Interesting fact but unlikely to be
important IMO
This Khashoggi story never lasts more than a week in MSM unless there is a psyops
operation in place by the Deep State. Media saturation and persistence is the key to any
operation. Inconvenient truths are reported and then dropped and forgotten. Lies without
evidence are repeated constantly until they are accepted as truths, in some cases
inconsequential truths that are convenient serve the same purpose
So regardless of the truth of Khashoggis disappearance there is a Deep State operation
in place, the evidence is in the media saturation and persistence and bipartisan support. Its
purpose may be as simple as coercing MBS to buy more weapons. Perhaps it may even be that a
replacement for MBS even more pro-Israel has been found. Israels influence on the media
is not neglible. This saturation coverage does not happen without them supporting it or at
least not using their influence to suppress it Another more disturbing possibility should MBS
stand his ground , is conditioning the people to accept MBS as the new OBL and Saudis
Wahhabis as the new AQ and repeating history.
There simply is no way to know. Just have to watch and see but whatever it is probably
wont be good
The Saudi bmobing - with US bmobs - of the Yemeni School Bus Full of Babies was truly and
completely horrifying - rotten and utterly detestable by anyone's standards (except for
Trump, Hillary, Bill, Bolton, Graham, Biden, All the Bush's, Rick Scott and etc.)
And Newsworthy. But it was, instead, crickets chirping in that deep east Texas
nighttime.
Khashoggi is news, because they say its news. They make it news. Why? BC it fits an
agenda. Somebody wants MBS out.
The bigger play here is bringing turkey back into the western fold. Lose turkey you lose
the whole middle east. also, a secondary play - guardianship of Mecca. SA an unreliable
partner under mbs.
In excerpts from the interview released by
CNN , Jones asked Kushner whether it is wise to trust MbS to oversee Saudi Arabia's
investigation, given that he's also the prime suspect. Kushner, who, in the absence of a US
ambassador to KSA, has been handling the kingdom's relationship with the Trump administration
directly via his friendship with MbS, said the US will examine facts from "multiple
places."
Jones: Do you trust the Saudis to investigate themselves?
Kushner: We're getting facts in from multiple places. Once those facts come in, the
Secretary of State will work with our national security team to help us determine what we
want to believe, and what we think is credible, and what we think is not credible.
Jones: Do you see anything that seems deceptive.
Kushner: I see things that seem deceptive every day I see them in the Middle East and in
Washington. We have our eyes wide open. The president is looking out for America's strategic
interests...the president is fully committed to doing that."
Given their close relationship, media reports have implied that Kushner has been acting as
an unofficial liaison of sorts to MbS since the crisis began (it has also been reported that
the Crown Prince initially didn't understand why the backlash to Khashoggi's murder had been so
intense). In light of this, Jones asked Kushner what advice, if any, he has given the Saudi
royal during their conversations (to be sure, MbS has also spoken with President Trump directly
on the phone). In a story published over the weekend,
the Washington Post reported that Trump has privately expressed doubts about MbS's story,
and has also lamented his close ties with Kushner, fearing they could be a liability. But
during a phone interview, the president was somewhat more sanguine, pointing out that both
Kushner and MbS are relatively young for the amount of power they wield.
"They're two young guys. Jared doesn't know him well or anything. They are just two young
people. They are the same age. They like each other, I believe," Trump said.
Kushner's interview followed
reports published Sunday night that MbS tried to convince Khashoggi to return to Riyadh
during a brief phone call with the journalist after he had been detained at the Saudi consulate
Khashoggi refused, reportedly because he feared that he would be killed, and was subsequently
killed anyway. Adding another macabre twist to the saga of Khashoggi's murder and
dismemberment, Surveillance footage released Monday showed one of the Saudi operatives leaving
the consulate wearing Khashoggi's clothes with the suspected intent of serving as
a "decoy" to bolster the kingdom's claims that Khashoggi had left after receiving his
papers. It was later reported that Turkish investigators had found an abandoned car that once
belonged to the Saudi consulate.
We imagine we'll be hearing more about these strange developments on Tuesday, when Turkish
President Erdogan is expected to deliver a report on the killings.
Why is "everyone" so ******* upset about the Muslim Brothernood, green-card holding
journalist being offed? I mean, folks in the M.E. are murdered all the ******* time.
Journalists are not immune. Especially ones that are actually agitators that write ****. This
whole thing is ********. How do I know? Just look at the reactions. Media everywhere to level
11.. What about Stormy Daniels? The Playboy bunny? Ford? Scandal # 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47 ,
etc??
Saudis murder folks . Turkey murders folks. Turkey crushed a coup a couple years ago and
60K folks disappeared. I don't remember the US media demanding Obama " do something" about
Turkey immediately, do you? Seriously.
true. And I'm sure the CIA gets in on some very disgusting killings as well. Along with
the Mossad and Mi6 (2 groups that get little attention but should).
" Jones: Do you trust the Saudis to investigate themselves?"
"Kushner: We're getting facts in from multiple places. Once those facts come in, the
Secretary of State will work with our national security team to help us determine what we
want to believe , and what we think is credible, and what we think is not credible."
Jones: Do you see anything that seems deceptive.
Kushner:
NO
I (bullshitbullshitbullshit) see things that seem deceptive every day I see them in
the Middle East and in Washington. We have our eyes wide open (bullshitbullshitbullshit.
The president is looking out for America's strategic interests...the president is fully
committed to hanging me out to dry . After that - ho noze bubelah ."
(Can I sukie suckie now black master?
FIFT
All will be well when the head honcho sends this YidTwat to be Royal Commissioner in
either Greenlnd or Antarctica.
Have you heard the latest about the Peace Deal of All Times Kushner has been working on?
And going to deliver any day now... soon...really soon.
After all this time what it comes down to is a leveraged buyout proposal. The buyout is
cash for Palestinians to give in to what Israel's far right wants, give up their land and
get the hell out of Dodge if they can't live with the remnants.. The leverage is Trump
trying to starve them out and Kushner's friends in the IDF Palace Guard at the ready to
pile drive anyone who resists.
" All this nonsense depends on the largesse of Saudi Arabia – whose bungling crown
prince appears to be arguing with his kingly father, who does not want to abandon the
original Saudi initiative for a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital –
"
Jared Kushner was communicating with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS)
prior to and after the Saudis brutally murdered Washington-based journalist Jamal
Khashoggi
Wayne Madsen - the author of the above - also reckons it was Kushner that supplied the
Saudi Prince HIT LIST to MbS a few months back - to clear the deck for "closer
co-operation" with ISISrael
Unfortunately, the only crime here is that the Turks have no decent respect for the
consular as sovereign territory, thus they are revoking Saudi rights and are operating as
an act of territorial aggression as the US has done to the Russians. Civility is braking
down and one has to ask one's self, for who's benefit.. The Turks are not going to benefit.
Khashoggi was going to die one way or another, so he made a show of it.. Spy vs. spy.
The USA has in the past just 'droned' them (as Hilterary was eager to reveal).
Perhaps you missed the regime change that happened last year, a globally significant
event, by the way.
Khashoggi was on the wrong side of that, and has stayed away from SA ever since, sniping
from the sidelines. MBS has lots of reasons not to like him.
However, his power base was removed when MBS hung his mates up by their heels in the
Hilton Hotel. He was not worth bothering with. So why was he killed then?
Possibly, he was not killed, only used as a foil to bring down hell fire and damnation
on MBS. He probably walked out the back, just as the SA said when this first came out. Now
Marketwatch has a story saying a man dressed in Khashogggi's "still warm clothes" was
photographed going into the Blue Mosque. Yeah, right:
Yes! And tying it together with the Las Vegas Mandalay Bay-Harvest Festival shooting,
and the video of the LV SWAT team escorting a person who looked like MBS through a casino
suggests that there was a 'failed' assassination attempt.
And the fact that Prince Al Talweed, a co-owner of top floors of Manadaly Bay with Bill
Gates, had tweeted his loathing of Trump...
The "Crown" (British or SA or many others) is inviolable. They take threats to
sovereignty seriously unlike Americans who have outsourced Monetary Sovereignty to their
Banks, Military and Economic Sovereignty to their Corporations.
This kid's a ****. A real Chabad Lubavitch **** with a criminal father who I am going to
hazard has never worked a hard day in his life. (Both father and son)
Remember Dan Aykroyd from "Trading Places"? Kushner is like that, only not funny. And
jewish.
Kushner was parachuted into the White House on the sole basis of his being the
President's son-in-law.
He quickly ascended to the top rungs of power in our Nation even receiving Top Security
Clearance and has been privy to our most tightly guarded secrets ever since.
This little ********** has turned out to be a tremendous thorn in our side facilitated
by the President's pleasure.
Is everyone blind? This ******* nobody is practically running the whole show in the
Middle East and with what credentials?
He's a power *** with vast connections, having been chosen to be the front man for the
destruction of America as we know it.
Exactly, plus his arrogance and stupidity has made the middle east even more fraught
with problems.
Just like Trump moving the embassy to Jerusalem; this has caused nothing but
problems.
Going in with no background in the middle east, without knowing anything except what was
told to him in Hebrew school is a recipe for disaster which is unfolding before our
eyes.
Skinny. Stiff. Plastic. Rather defiant, somewhat snotty. I have no reason to decide
whether I like him or not but Kushner comes across to me as somebody I would not trust as
far as I could throw him. Mind you that's quite a distance since I think he probably weighs
about 109 lb.
The CNN interviewer is Van Jones.
This is the same Van Jones who was Obama's "Green Jobs Czar" and was forced to resign his
position in 2009 because of his radical left wing background.
What the hell is Kushner doing in a position of power in the White House, what are his
qualifications for whatever post he holds ?
What the hell is anyone doing dealing with these animals who dress up in dresses? They
behead people in public squares, mutilate people, oppress woman, kill homos, etc. Real
crazy degenerates that got ahold of lots of money via their oil.
Why is "everyone" so ******* upset about the Muslim Brothernood, green-card holding
journalist being offed? I mean, folks in the M.E. are murdered all the ******* time.
Journalists are not immune. Especially ones that are actually agitators that write ****.
This whole thing is ********. How do I know? Just look at the reactions. Media everywhere
to level 11.. What about Stormy Daniels? The Playboy bunny? Ford? Scandal # 42, 43, 44, 45,
46, 47 , etc??
Saudis murder folks . Turkey murders folks. Turkey crushed a coup a couple years ago and
60K folks disappeared. I don't remember the US media demanding Obama " do something" about
Turkey immediately, do you? Seriously.
true. And I'm sure the CIA gets in on some very disgusting killings as well. Along with
the Mossad and Mi6 (2 groups that get little attention but should).
" Jones: Do you trust the Saudis to investigate themselves?"
"Kushner: We're getting facts in from multiple places. Once those facts come in, the
Secretary of State will work with our national security team to help us determine what
we want to believe , and what we think is credible, and what we think is not
credible."
Jones: Do you see anything that seems deceptive.
Kushner:
NO
I (bullshitbullshitbullshit) see things that seem deceptive every day I see them in
the Middle East and in Washington. We have our eyes wide open
(bullshitbullshitbullshit. The president is looking out for America's strategic
interests...the president is fully committed to hanging me out to dry . After that - ho
noze bubelah ."
(Can I sukie suckie now black master?
FIFT
All will be well when the head honcho sends this YidTwat to be Royal Commissioner in
either Greenlnd or Antarctica.
Have you heard the latest about the Peace Deal of All Times Kushner has been working on?
And going to deliver any day now... soon...really soon.
After all this time what it comes down to is a leveraged buyout proposal. The buyout is
cash for Palestinians to give in to what Israel's far right wants, give up their land and
get the hell out of Dodge if they can't live with the remnants.. The leverage is Trump
trying to starve them out and Kushner's friends in the IDF Palace Guard at the ready to
pile drive anyone who resists.
" All this nonsense depends on the largesse of Saudi Arabia – whose bungling crown
prince appears to be arguing with his kingly father, who does not want to abandon the
original Saudi initiative for a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital –
"
Jared Kushner was communicating with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS)
prior to and after the Saudis brutally murdered Washington-based journalist Jamal
Khashoggi
Wayne Madsen - the author of the above - also reckons it was Kushner that supplied the
Saudi Prince HIT LIST to MbS a few months back - to clear the deck for "closer
co-operation" with ISISrael
Unfortunately, the only crime here is that the Turks have no decent respect for the
consular as sovereign territory, thus they are revoking Saudi rights and are operating as
an act of territorial aggression as the US has done to the Russians. Civility is braking
down and one has to ask one's self, for who's benefit.. The Turks are not going to benefit.
Khashoggi was going to die one way or another, so he made a show of it.. Spy vs. spy.
The USA has in the past just 'droned' them (as Hilterary was eager to reveal).
lose
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I care because I am hoping this assassination will destroy our 80 year old relationship
with The House of Saud which is the epicenter of Wahhabism that brought us 9/11, the ISIS
headchoppers and much more.
Perhaps you missed the regime change that happened last year, a globally significant
event, by the way.
Khashoggi was on the wrong side of that, and has stayed away from SA ever since, sniping
from the sidelines. MBS has lots of reasons not to like him.
However, his power base was removed when MBS hung his mates up by their heels in the
Hilton Hotel. He was not worth bothering with. So why was he killed then?
Possibly, he was not killed, only used as a foil to bring down hell fire and damnation
on MBS. He probably walked out the back, just as the SA said when this first came out. Now
Marketwatch has a story saying a man dressed in Khashogggi's "still warm clothes" was
photographed going into the Blue Mosque. Yeah, right:
Yes! And tying it together with the Las Vegas Mandalay Bay-Harvest Festival shooting,
and the video of the LV SWAT team escorting a person who looked like MBS through a casino
suggests that there was a 'failed' assassination attempt.
And the fact that Prince Al Talweed, a co-owner of top floors of Manadaly Bay with Bill
Gates, had tweeted his loathing of Trump...
The "Crown" (British or SA or many others) is inviolable. They take threats to
sovereignty seriously unlike Americans who have outsourced Monetary Sovereignty to their
Banks, Military and Economic Sovereignty to their Corporations.
This kid's a ****. A real Chabad Lubavitch **** with a criminal father who I am going to
hazard has never worked a hard day in his life. (Both father and son)
Remember Dan Aykroyd from "Trading Places"? Kushner is like that, only not funny. And
jewish.
Kushner was parachuted into the White House on the sole basis of his being the
President's son-in-law.
He quickly ascended to the top rungs of power in our Nation even receiving Top Security
Clearance and has been privy to our most tightly guarded secrets ever since.
This little ********** has turned out to be a tremendous thorn in our side facilitated
by the President's pleasure.
Is everyone blind? This ******* nobody is practically running the whole show in the
Middle East and with what credentials?
He's a power *** with vast connections, having been chosen to be the front man for the
destruction of America as we know it.
Exactly, plus his arrogance and stupidity has made the middle east even more fraught
with problems.
Just like Trump moving the embassy to Jerusalem; this has caused nothing but
problems.
Going in with no background in the middle east, without knowing anything except what was
told to him in Hebrew school is a recipe for disaster which is unfolding before our
eyes.
There have been so many attempts at selling advertising with this article the author
says, "to deliver a report on the killings." I thought they only chopped up one cash-hoggi
now they are trying to turn it into two. What does the author think it was cactus they
killed?
Skinny. Stiff. Plastic. Rather defiant, somewhat snotty. I have no reason to decide
whether I like him or not but Kushner comes across to me as somebody I would not trust as
far as I could throw him. Mind you that's quite a distance since I think he probably weighs
about 109 lb.
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It was at least fifty million $1 votes from Israel laundered through Trump supporter and
uber-Zionist Sheldon Adelson's casinos in Macau. Steve Wynn was likely in on that action
too.
Until America wakes up and gets dirty money out of your "(s)elections" you will be
hostage to foreign powers.
No one asked Kavanaugh if he thought "Citizens United" was settled law.
IDK if MbS had anything to do with the confrontation, or it was some 9th cousin royal
guard attempting to give Khashoggi an offer he couldn't refuse. Nobody will ever know what
happened. Just another MSM Piece Beyond Understanding.
Remember though, we *do know* that Obama and Rodham and their WH crew sat there in the
White House Situation Room, watching *live satellite feed* of Ghaddafi's final movements, the
half-meter long bayonet stabbing bloody anal rape to death.
Then Rodham sat there, right afterward, drenched in dewey musk, chortling a paraphrase
from Caesar, "We came, we saw, he died! CAWW, CAWW, CAWW!" Monsters!!
Then everyone forgot about it, like it never happened! Poor! The Lion of Africa, like the
Lion of Panjshir, just another hot blip on Deep State's radar. Same sh*t, different day.
Fahged abahd et.
So why is Khashoggi, a non-entity, *still in the media cross-hairs?!* Pre-election psyop,
and extortion. Saudis, Chinese and Russians want to dump their $Ts in junk 1.88% US
Treasuries. That will implode the US budget deficit, and the SS and MC Trust Funds as 'buyers
of last resort'.
What might Erdogan want out of this gift that has fallen into his lap?
Gulen out of the the US and into his hands.
CIA won't do that, but Gulen is what Erdogan wants from US. He gave up the "Pastor"
without getting anything.
Pompeo tried to pressure him over S-400s. That was laughed off by Ankara.
Erdogan has two big worries: Kurds and Gulen.
He has many desires (dreams, delusions).
But he knows the forces internally that threaten his existence and success as ruler. Already,
the Muslim Brotherhood has suffered great losses.
This noose around MBS's neck that Erdogan may be holding is leverage against the CIA
specifically. It was information handed by Jared Kushner to MBS that led to this and others
being liquidated by the Saudis. Erdogan might be able to tie it all together. That would be
leverage the US cannot ignore. The entire anti-Iran strategy depends on Jared-Bibi and
MBS.
IDK if MbS had anything to do with the confrontation, or it was some 9th cousin royal
guard attempting to give Khashoggi an offer he couldn't refuse. Nobody will ever know what
happened. Just another MSM Piece Beyond Understanding.
Remember though, we *do know* that Obama and Rodham and their WH crew sat there in the
White House Situation Room, watching *live satellite feed* of Ghaddafi's final movements, the
half-meter long bayonet stabbing bloody anal rape to death.
Then Rodham sat there, right afterward, drenched in dewey musk, chortling a paraphrase
from Caesar, "We came, we saw, he died! CAWW, CAWW, CAWW!" Monsters!!
Then everyone forgot about it, like it never happened! Poor! The Lion of Africa, like the
Lion of Panjshir, just another hot blip on Deep State's radar. Same sh*t, different day.
Fahged abahd et.
So why is Khashoggi, a non-entity, *still in the media cross-hairs?!* Pre-election psyop,
and extortion. Saudis, Chinese and Russians want to dump their $Ts in junk 1.88% US
Treasuries. That will implode the US budget deficit, and the SS and MC Trust Funds as 'buyers
of last resort'.
@ 16 "The whole mega-chart of crossed alliances has become so confused nobody knows what is
going on, who to support, who to trust to have an impact, what to do, etc."
Keeping in mind the anti Israel faction helps keep track of, or make sense of alliances.
Syria, Turkey, Iran, Qatar, Jordan and Kuwait headed that way. These are forming into a
faction of strange bedfellows with the US moving their embassy to Jerusalem and the other
Trump machinations with Israel being the catalyst.
Undisputed :::
Saudi Arabia Wahabbism is a leader of Mideast mayhem.
USA supports Saudi Arabia in the ongoing mayhem
So does Canada.
So does Britain.
and France.
Kashoggi a Washington Post reporter.
Washington Post big disseminator of lies.
Same with the New York Times
Both WP and NYT hid the Saudi USA CANADA BRITAIN FRENCH supported aggression on Yemen.
But this is WP and NYT opportunity to disparage Trump.
Therefore it is big "nooze." To be sensationalized. however.
Nothing new to report at all. Same old.
But shame on the alt for sucking along. Stupid is as stupid does.
One WP "journalist" a bigget casualty ? But, hundreds of thousands Syrian and Yemen
casualties? No pro blem for NYT and WP s--t heds.
Grow up, world.
Details continue to spill out. Now, interior royal princes are reported disturbed and trying
to contact the King, but prevented by MbS. A General Mutrib, very close to MbS, one of his
seven bodyguards at the Consulate,left Istanbul before the others with a large bag while the
others celebrated at a dinner re "mission accomplished."
The latest WHAAT? out of me is that MbS spoke to Khashoggi by telephone moments before he
was murdered. If true, this directly shows the lies the man is capable of. Maybe the US
senators calling MbS a liar know something we don't. Jared is in the doghouse for his
complicity in enabling MbS to deal with his critics.
Trump is floundering from "credible" to "deception," as he floundered re Kavanaugh ("both
seemed convincing," he said after the late September hearing with Christine Ford) before
wiping her up one side and down the other with demonizing a few days later. I think the
damage problem here for the midterms is significant, and Trump will not retain the House and
perhaps not the Senate either.
Why this case should rivet so much attention whereas deaths of 40 kids on a bus, then 17
more a few days ago, etc. etc. do not, seems a case of gag me, where is my vomit trough taken
a step too far, possibly because US friends of Khashoggi in the government, CIA, MSM got
upset. And let's not forget the rumor Khash was in on a CIA plot to establish a commission to
run SA (one of a three member board) in the interests of the US. Could add to why MbS was
keen on shutting him up.
I wouldn't think the detail of the fake person in his clothes leaving the back door is
"gratuitous, unneeded" in that it shows once again the lies spun from the Saudis in their
desperate scrabbling as this thing falls apart.
The Turkish government's vacillations and zigzagging in the face of the country's economic
woes reflect how squeezed it has become economically and politically and how concerned it is
about it with elections scheduled for March.
. . .
In mid-2018, Turkey's external debt stock stood at $457 billion. Over the next 12 months, the
country will need $181 billion to roll over maturing debts. The financing of the current
account deficit requires another $40 billion, at the least, though the gap has begun to
decrease under the impact of the economic downturn.
In total, Turkey needs a minimum of $220 billion over the next 12 months, or roughly $18
billion a month, but it has become a high-risk country for creditors. Its risk premium,
reflected in credit default swaps, has decoupled from those of other emerging economies,
hovering above 400 basis points despite occasional drops. In sum, borrowing has become more
expensive for Turkey.
Short Term External Debt Statistics [Central Bank of Turkey]
8/18
As of the end of August 2018, short-term external debt stock was realized as USD 175.2
billion, based on the remaining maturities calculated using external debt data, which was 1
year or less due to the original maturity. The stock's 18.2 billion US dollars portion,
composed of resident banks and the private sector's debts to foreign branches and
subsidiaries are in Turkey. When evaluated on a debtor basis, it is observed that the public
sector has a share of 18.1%, the Central Bank and the private sector have a share of 81% and
0.9%, respectively.
The Duran just published an article titled "Converting Khashoggi into Cash"
It points out that The Turkish/Saudi conflict goes back a long way as the "The first Saudi
state, the Emirate of Diriyah, went belly up in 1818, with the death of head of the house of
al-Saud, Abdullah bin Saud – actually, literally with his head hung on a gate in
Constantinople by Erdogan's Ottoman predecessor, Sultan Mahmud II." https://theduran.com/converting-khashoggi-into-cash/October
21, 2018
"... it's quite unusual to see such unanimous anti-Saudi reactions from the American political class for the assassination of Mr. Khashoggi – who was just a part-time journalist living in U.S – he was not even an American citizen ..."
"... So, it's quite unusual because the same political class remained muted about the Saudis involvement with ISIS, the bombing and starvation of civilians in Yemen and destruction of Syria, and of course the Saudis involvement in 9/11 terrorist attack in which 3000 American citizens have perished in New York, in the heart of America ..."
"... However gruesome, Mr. Khashoggi's assassination is going to be used by the Trump Administration to help the American Oil Cartel by controlling the Saudi Oil output, hence, to raise the price of Oil and to lower demand for US dollar which is the currency of the global Oil trade. ..."
"... The seemingly well-connected news outlet Voltairenet claims that there has been a plot against MbS and that Khashoggi was involved in it. ..."
"... It fares a atrocial war on Yemen, shits on international laws and regulations, just like Israel, Why would they not murder a juorno entering their land? Now this juorno was a man revealing in practices done by head choppers, so I will not cry much. It just shows these people are savages, all of them. What should be done ? You judge. ..."
"... I've read on Zerohedge that Khashoggi was on the verge of publishing an article about the Saudi's and CIA's involvement in 9/11, specifically about his former boss Turki al-Faisal, who ran Saudi intelligence for 23 years then abruptly resigned 10 days before 9/11 without giving any reason. ..."
"... Kashiggi's not a reformer. He's hard core Muslim Brotherhood ..."
The overplayed drama of Mr. Khashoggi assassination is going to be used by the American Oil
Cartel to control the Saudis Oil output.
it's quite unusual to see such unanimous anti-Saudi reactions from the American political
class for the assassination of Mr. Khashoggi – who was just a part-time journalist
living in U.S – he was not even an American citizen.
So, it's quite unusual because the
same political class remained muted about the Saudis involvement with ISIS, the bombing and
starvation of civilians in Yemen and destruction of Syria, and of course the Saudis
involvement in 9/11 terrorist attack in which 3000 American citizens have perished in New
York, in the heart of America.
So, we must be a bit skeptical about the motive of the American Political Class, as this
again could be just about the OIL Business, but this time around the objective is to help the
American Oil producers as opposed to Oil consumers – with 13.8% of the global daily Oil
production, the US has lately become the world top producer of Crude Oil, albeit, an
expensive Oil which is extracted by Fracking method that requires high Oil price above $70 to
remain competitive in the global Oil market – by simultaneously sanctioning Iran,
Venezuela, and the potential sanction of Saudi Arabia from exporting its Oil, the Trump
Administration not only reduces the Global Oil supply which will certainly lead to the rise
of Oil price, but also it lowers demand for the US Dollar-Greenback in the global oil market
which could lead to subtle but steady devaluation of the US dollar.
And perhaps that's what
Trump Administration was really aiming for all along; a significant decline of the US Dollar
Index and the rise of price of Oil which certainly pleases the American Oil Cartel, though at
the expense of Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela – all of which are under some form of US sanctions.
However gruesome, Mr. Khashoggi's assassination is going to be used by the Trump
Administration to help the American Oil Cartel by controlling the Saudi Oil output, hence, to
raise the price of Oil and to lower demand for US dollar which is the currency of the global
Oil trade.
This seems to explain the motive to kill him. A few mildly critical articles by
Khashoggi's pen scarcely seem to be sufficient for such a high-profile murder, even if we
take into account that MbS appears to be impulsive and little capable of thinking ahead.
First of all, when has the death of a journalist made any difference in the relations between
countries? Why act like it should now?
Second, Khashoggi was not simply a journalist -- he was a member of the Saudi elite, an
Intelligence officer, and an activist for the Muslim Brotherhood (the Die Welt article
established that).
Third, the real question is how this story came out, and why it has come out as it has
("journalist murdered by police state agents"). Turkey pushed this story out into the open.
Apparently a calculation that the crown prince is losing ground, and an effort (perhaps
assisted by bribes) to align the AK party with the crown prince's enemies in Saudi.
It fares a atrocial war on Yemen, shits on international laws and regulations, just like
Israel, Why would they not murder a juorno entering their land?
Now this juorno was a man revealing in practices done by head choppers, so I will not cry
much.
It just shows these people are savages, all of them.
What should be done ? You judge.
It seems quite curious why MBS would go through such trouble to waste a guy whose only crime
was writing a few low key disparaging articles about him that nobody read. Maybe there's more
to this story than meets the eye.
I've read on Zerohedge that Khashoggi was on the verge of publishing an article about the
Saudi's and CIA's involvement in 9/11, specifically about his former boss Turki al-Faisal,
who ran Saudi intelligence for 23 years then abruptly resigned 10 days before 9/11 without
giving any reason. The rumor was he knew about the attack as did CIA, but Saudis and CIA
decided not to do anything to use it as pretext to start the "war on terror" and bring down
Saddam Hussein. Personally I find that a little far fetched but you never know when it comes
to the CIA.
The murder of d'Enghien had no effect on the French Revolution, other countries reactions to
the revolution and the subsequent revolutionary and Napoleonic wars. In fact, most of the
liberal pro French Revolution historians consider the execution as necessary and moral as the
execution of other anti revolutionaries
Koshoggi's murder won't make a bit of difference either once the blame Trump media blast
blows over. The Turkish police appear to be doing a good job. They've arrested 18 people involved. At least the moralist pundits won't be punditing and pontificating about Kavanaugh for a
few days. Kashiggi's not a reformer. He's hard core Muslim Brotherhood
That the Saudi regime commits murders does not surprise me, but getting caught not just with
murder, but also with torture, indeed an unbelievable stupidity.
Why torture the man ?
But what also baffles me is that the journalist wrote for Washpost, a friend of Israel.
That Netanyahu and the Saudi regime cooperate to attack Iran, it is asserted by many, and it
sems quite probable to me.
A technical question, can indeed a smartwatch do what it is supposed to have done ?
If so, then the torturers and murderers are even more stupid, I let the moral issue
undiscussed, than one can imagine.
Then there is the assertion, in cases like this one never knows what the facts are, that the
journalist's girl friend waited outside.
Did he expect trouble ?
Did he ask her to record the trouble ?
Did not the consulate security see her ?
A final remark, what now is the difference in cruelty between IS and the USA's ally ?
Early in WWII FDR was reported that USA oil would be depleted in thirty years time.
So FDR sent Harold L Ickes to Saudi Arabia,where at the end of 1944 the country was made the
USA's main oil supplier.
FDR entertained the then Saud in early 1945 on the cruiser Quincy, laying in the Bitter Lakes
near the Suez Canal.
This Saud and his entourage had never seen a ship before, in any case had never been on board
such a ship.
In his last speech to Congress, seated, FDR did not follow what had been written for him,
but remarked 'that ten minutes with Saud taught him more about zionism than hundreds of
letters of USA rabbi's.
These words do not seem to be in the official record, but one of the speech writers,
Sherwood, quotes them in his book.
Robert E. Sherwood, 'Roosevelt und Hopkins', 1950, Hamburg (Roosevelt and Hopkins, New York,
1948)
If FDR also said to Congress that he would limit jewish migration to Palestine, do not now
remember, but the intention existed.
A few weeks later FDR died, Sherwood comments on on some curious aspects of FDR's death, such
as that the body was cremated in or near Warm Springs, and that the USA people were never
informed that the coffin going from Warm Springs to Washington just contained an urn with
ashes. At present the USA does not seem to need Saudi oil.
If this causes the asserted cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Israel ?
@Harris ChandlerNow it has made alliances with Israel and between them the tail wags
the dog
The Saudi Royal family and the governments of Israel have always been in cahoots. They
both despise and fear secular governments that are not under their own control in the Middle
East. Witness the fear and dread of both of them of president Nasser in the 1960′s, for
example.
The US establishment, 'liberal' or not, just fake an outcry to soften the image of 100′s
of 1000′s of yemenis, iraqis, libyan.. war casualties they are wholly or partly
responsible for. Khashoggi's death is no more brutal than that of Gaddafi. What's the big
deal ?
Whether Khashoggi is an islamist or not is very minor.
(Sunni) Islam is basically a caravan of arab tribal or civilizational power and the house of
Saud just rides this vehicle or caravan to siphon off the oil wealth.
The house of Saud, said to be Jewish in origin, have the option to migrate en mass to Israel
or French Riviera, with their swiss/US/caribbean offshore accounts during time of crisis or
after new forms of energy resource displace oil
Equally important, the Saudis and Emiratis are now closely allied to Israel's far right
government. Israel has been a door-opener for the Saudis and Gulf Emirates in Washington's
political circles. The Israel lobby is riding to the Saudi's defense .
The Israelis are defending Old Saudi (pre MBS) -- not the New MBS/Kushner fix Palestine
cabal. The last thing Israel wants is a defined Israeli border recognized by the world. The sycophant Israeli backing Senators in congress (Graham et al) are all backing Israel
by condemning MBS and calling for his head.
@FKA Max Thanks for the excellent Real News Network interview with someone I hadn't heard
about (As'ad AbuKhalil) who has followed the career of Khashoggi for years.
It seems that Khashoggi was lately different things to different people – one voice
in English at the Washington Post following the Israeli line, and another in Arabic and the
Arab media supporting the Palestinians and the Moslem Brotherhood.
Over the long term he was a propagandist for the rule of the Saudi princes, and his
problem seemed to be his too close connection to the wrong ones, while they were overthrown
by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS). There's the suggestion of a plot against MbS where
he may have been involved.
So why are the Israelis, their MSM and their AIPAC congressmen making such a big thing out
of it? Isn't MbS their friend? And why should they care about the assassination of a
pro-Palestinian journalist?
Maybe they've a better knowledge of the forces at play in Saudi Arabia, and concluded that
MbS was too much of a risk (too isolated and independent – e.g. talking with the
Chinese about a Petro/Yuan). Maybe they decided to Regime Change MbS in a usual Israeli/US
Deep State operation with Khashoggi at the centre (the duplicitous sort of character that
they favor) – with the outrage at MbS unexpectedly striking back. It was in fact MbS'
team of bodyguards who arrived in Istanbul. And it would account for the Deep State anger at
having one of its chief conspirators murdered.
The back story has to be that the US/Israel want control of both Saudi and Iranian oil
priced in US Dollars and they'll go with anyone who can give that outcome (currently not
MbS). Or they invade Saudi Arabia Eastern Province on some pretext or other and just take the
oil directly.
I'm surprised that the Saudis didn't ask the Israelis, who are very good at
assassination and kidnapping, to go after Khashoggi.
They probably did, but Israel is gearing up to invade Gaza AGAIN, and that takes time and
resources that they couldn't afford to let go and do some free-lancing in the Murder Inc
Department.
But Blessed are the War Mongers or something, as that oh-so devout Christian, Pat
Robertson, is against holding KSA accountable:
Prominent evangelical leader on Khashoggi crisis: let's not risk "$100 billion worth
of arms sales"
Pat Robertson, founder of the Christian Broadcasting Network, appeared on its flagship
television show The 700 Club on Monday to caution Americans against allowing the United
States' relationship with Saudi Arabia to deteriorate over Khashoggi's death.
"For those who are screaming blood for the Saudis -- look, these people are key allies,"
Robertson said. While he called the faith of the Wahabists -- the hardline Islamist sect to
which the Saudi Royal Family belongs -- "obnoxious," he urged viewers to remember that
"we've got an arms deal that everybody wanted a piece of it'll be a lot of jobs, a lot of
money come to our coffers. It's not something you want to blow up willy-nilly."
Did Robertson take all of that loot he made from smuggling blood diamonds out of
Africa–using his charity as a front–and invest in the defense industry?
If Pat is headed to Heaven after he expires, then send me to the other place, as I have
no desire to be stuck with hypocrites for all eternity.
"Error" ? "Mistake" ? These people (the KSA) are fucking "stupid" .
Now they're saying he died in a "fist fight" in the consulate !
A 13 year old street criminal would know that that excuse is an admission of guilt. These
guys shouldn't be allowed to run a model railroad.
On television in 1988, Donald Trump said he had bought a
US $200 million 85-metre-long yacht ,'The Nabila', from billionaire arms dealer Adnan
Khashoggi, uncle of just-murdered-in-Istanbul journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The yacht was named
after Adnan Khashoggi's daughter. Trump later sold the yacht to Saudi Prince Al-Waleed bin
Talal.
Donald Trump talking about the boat and arms dealers like Khashoggi – "not the
nicest guys in the world"
Naftogaz has now begun to help itself to money from Russia's gas-transit payments, arguing
that it is owed money from the Stockholm Arbitration ruling which Gazprom has refused to pay.
Apparently Russia is still paying the old rate, from before the ruling (because to do
otherwise would be to recognize the debt and accept responsibility for it), which results in
an overpayment since it is higher than Naftogaz would charge, if I understand correctly. So
Naftogaz has decided to confiscate it as owing.
This, obviously, sets the stage for another shutdown of European gas supplies, just as
winter is coming on. Perhaps Ukraine has realized that nothing it can do or say is going to
stop Nord Stream II from going ahead, and so it might as well recover what it can, and who
cares if it results in a shutdown of Europe's gas, regardless where the blame ends up? Once
again Ukraine's maneuvering puts Russia in a difficult spot – it can recognize the
Stockholm award and pay Ukraine $2.6 Billion or whatever it was. Or it can accept that
Ukraine will keep part of its transit payments against the debt until it can shut down gas
transit across Ukraine altogether. Or it can shut off the gas now.
If it were up to me, I would take the middle option. Let Ukraine congratulate itself on
one-upping me with its native cleverness (assuming here that I am Russia), and let them keep
$9 or $10 million of the transit fees each month; that would probably be a lot cheaper than
acknowledging the Stockholm award and paying Ukraine billions, in view of the fact that
Ukraine never paid back the money it was lent by Russia; Stockholm neatly solved that for
them, by awarding them huge damages, part of which was understood to be the amount Ukraine
owed. Okay, that goes toward Ukraine's debt to Russia, and now you owe Ukraine $2.6 Billion
more.
I would just focus on getting Nord Stream II completed. Then I would not only stop gas
transit through Ukraine, I would tell them to kiss my ass if they wanted to buy gas for
themselves. You were so pleased with yourselves for not buying any gas from Russia last year
– obviously you can get along fine without it. But I sure hope Europe is going to keep
giving you money to buy European gas forever.
Once
again my best House of Saud-connected source RE-CONFIRMED Mohammed Bone Saw (MBS) received
direct info on CIA assets in Saudi Arabia from his close whatsapp pal Jared of Arabia.
Jared could only have access to this top secret info because of his high clearance. That led
to the Ritz-Carlton jail saga - and other arrests.
The CIA protégé Mohammed bin Nayef - who was previously made Crown Prince by
the CIA itself - was also arrested and is still under house arrest. The CIA was grooming Nayef
be King.
The CIA managed to elevate Nayef by plotting to get rid of Bandar Bush - who was fired by
then King Abdullah. When King Abdullah died, Nayef continued to be Crown Prince until ousted by
the new King Salman bin Abdulaziz to the benefit of his son.
Big mistake.
MBS moved against the clergy - who had been neutralized by Nayef. He moved against CIA
friends, ousting former King Abdullah's son Prince Miteb as head of the powerful National Guard
- who's after his blood ever since.
Crucially, Khashoggi was also CIA.
MBS ordered the invasion of Yemen - and turned large sectors of the army against him. He met
with AIPAC in New York, befriended Israel and turned the bulk of the Saudi population against
him.
Only misinformed simpletons believe that the Pulp Fiction in Istanbul op could have
proceeded without his green light. Hubris, arrogance and inter-galactic ignorance are MBS's
trademarks.
What kind of intel op does not know that Turkish secret police would be monitoring the Saudi
embassy 24/7?
The Coward Prince, meanwhile, has had ample time to find not one but TWO fall guys.
Fall Guy Number One is Gen. Ahmed al-Assiri, deputy head of Saudi intel (yes, that's an
oxymoron), a senior air force officer with NO (very important) family connections to the Saudi
two-bit royals.
Fall Guy Number Two is Saud al-Qahtani, who was a sort of Desert Grand Inquisitor - totally
controlling the media and supervising the non-stop purge of any critics. Call him the Saudi
Steve Bannon - as he was known in Qatar. He led a mighty troll army spreading fake news on the
murderous war on Yemen, the pathetic blockade of Qatar and non-stop demonization of Iran.
Turkey for its part has masterfully deployed Death by a Thousand Leaks on MBS.
Now the whole planet knows the detailed description of the 15-men hit squad; pics of all of
them; their role in the "mission"; arrival and departure flights; which hotels they stayed for
a few hours.
The hit squad includes the Bone Saw Master; four intel ops; 6 Royal Guard members; a member
of MBS's personal guard; and a free agent.
Compared to all this evidence, the official "fist fight" Saudi explanation as well as the
Jared of Arabia-spun "rogue killer" spin are inter-galactic jokes designed for suckers.
What remains unexplained is whether MBS was striking some sort of dodgy deal with the Trump
administration, via his best pal Jared, behind the back of his House of Saud many rivals.
Consul Pompeus Minimus was on the phone to MBS immediately after the Pulp Fiction news broke
out. This could well turn out to have been a double-double cross.
Comment: Pepe is probably a little too sure it couldn't have happened without MbS's approval.
He may have been involved and it escalated further than he approved, (as Scott Adams
theorizes ), or
it could've been a rogue operation. Mohammed bin Salman has made enough enemies within the
sprawling Saudi royal family with last year's "anti-corruption purge", that more than one
faction would be happy to pin the assassination on him
"... I agree with Jack that when Brennan is writing an op-ed calling for the head of MbS something fishy is up. Kashoggi has had a long career at the heart of Saudi national security power structures. He's no angel. Clearly he touched a nerve to be murdered so openly with no plausible deniability. Or maybe that was intentional. Then....the reaction of the Deep State. Hmm? ..."
"... Please don't get me wrong. Saudi Barbaria has been a corrupting influence for decades and the role they have played in Syria, Libya is not to be condoned. I fully support walking away from our interventionist position in the Middle East and letting the chips fall there. However, I have a deep distrust of Brennan and his motives. I can't put my finger on why the neocons are reacting in this way in light of their previous attitude of ignoring such atrocities or even abetting them. This is raising suspicions. ..."
"... if that is such a common knowledge that host states always bug the guest embassies and consulates, that would mean that Saudis would have to assume that as well, so that they would make sure that these devices were ´blinded´, ..."
"As for arms sales, someone needs to brief Mr. Trump on the actual results of the promises made to him when he visited Riyadh
last year. As Bruce Riedel of the Brookings Institution
sums it up , "The Saudis have not concluded a single major arms deal with Washington on Trump's watch ." Moreover, an end to
supplies of U.S. spare parts and technical support, something Russia cannot provide, would quickly ground the Saudi air force . That
would have the welcome effect of ending a bloody bombing campaign in Yemen that a
U.N. investigation concluded was probably responsible for war crimes." Washpost
-----------
Once again, I am not a great fan of Bezos or his blog, but two days in a row they have printed something I can agree with. Something
has changed for him.
It has become a meme in the blather that runs shrill and shallow in the US media, that Saudi Arabia is a faithful, and indispensable
ally of the US in the ME. Bezos disputes this and so do I.
A few points:
Yes, they chop heads off after Friday prayers outside the local mosque. They also do hands and feet. They stone to death women
found guilty of adultery. They sew them in bags before the men present throw handy five pound rocks at them. The government is deeply
approving of this. Sound familiar? Yes, it should. The jihadis whom the Saudis sponsor in Syria do the same things. The Sunni jihadis
are nearly defeated in Syria and it has become clear that the Saudi government has been evacuating their leaders, probably with US
connivance, so that they can pursue greater visions of jihad elsewhere.
The importance of Saudi Arabia in the world oil market is IMO now much exaggerated. They can undoubtedly do some damage by manipulating
the short term contract (spot) market but this is something they would pay for heavily. The Kingdom is cash strapped. It was not
for nothing that MBS turned the Ritz Carlton in Riyadh into a prison for the wealthy including many of his own kin in order to squeeze
and in some cases torture them into handing over a lot of their cash to the government. Depressed petro sales at artificial prices
will only further reduce revenue to the government.
The notion that Saudi intelligence contributes much to the GWOT is a joke. Saudi intelligence competence is something that exists
only in pitchmen's claims voiced by TV touts. In fact, they get almost everything they have from the US and are like greedy baby
birds always looking to be fed. They cannot organize a trip to the gold plated toilet. It took 15 of them to ambush Khashoggi, well,
OK, 14 of them and a doctor to carry the electric bone-saw.
We need to sell them more equipment that they cannot use? It does not appear to me that any of the contracts that they promised
to DJT has been signed. Their technique is simple. Keep the hope of profit for the US alive as leverage.
Lastly, the chimera of a great Arab alliance (a la NATO) is delusory. The Saudis lack both the organizational ability for such
a thing and significant military power. They possess one of the world's largest static displays of military equipment. They have
neither the manpower nor the aptitude to use such equipment effectively. As I have written previously, the Gulf Arabs have long had
such an alliance. It is the GCC and it has never amounted to anything except a venue for the Arab delight in meetings and blather.
The basis for the desire for such an alliance is the Israeli strategic objective of isolating Iran and its allies; Syria, Hizbullah
and Hamas with an eventual hope of destroying the Iranian theocracy. Israel is frightened of a possible salvo of many thousands of
missiles and rockets into Israel from Lebanon as well as an eventual successful creation of a missile deliverable nuclear weapon
by the Iranians. These are real and credible threats for Israel, but not for FUKUS . Israel has only two really valuable counter-value
targets; Haifa and Tel Aviv. A hit on one or both with a nuclear weapon would be the end of Israel. The Israelis know that.
Adroit information operations carried out over generations by the Israeli government and its supporters have created in the collective
US mind an image of Iran as a disguised 3rd Reich. This was well done. The same operation was run against Iraq with magnificent results
from the POV of Israel
What happened here that all the neocons like Fred Hiatt and Sen. Lindsey Graham now want the blood of MBS? Jamal Kashoggi was
apparently a good pal of Osama and an insider who worked for Prince Turki al-Faisal both when he ran Saudi intelligence and when
he was in DC. My antenna is up when John Brennan starts writing op-eds. After all he was in Riyadh when Turki was the internal
security chief.
Does this have to do with our Deep State? Who may not be happy that MBS has by-passed them with a direct connection through
Jared?
We didn't do anything or demand anything when the Saudis sent terrorists to attack us on 9/11. What's changed now with the
murder of Jamal Kashoggi in Istanbul?
I'm with Jack. Don't get me wrong: I hate MBS as much as the next man, but I can't say I trust Erdogan or Bezos either. And these
days, whenever the WaPo tells me to zig, my instinct tells me to zag. At the very least, I would like to know more about what's
really going here before committing myself to one side or the other. Kashoggi, after all, was not just some random 'journalist'.
He had intimate contact with, and knowledge of, high-ranking personages in the KSA and beyond. He even knew Osama bin Laden! There
could be any number of parties out there in this world who have felt that he knew too much. It's just too early to jump to conclusions.
Over at Consortium News, Asad Abu Khalil, the 'Angry Arab', has up a good piece arguing that Kashoggi was no reformer. In fact,
up until extremely recently, he was doggedly loyal to the régime. As he puts it:
"Western media coverage of Khashoggi's career (by people who don't know Arabic) presents a picture far from reality. They portray
a courageous investigative journalist upsetting the Saudi regime. Nothing is further from the truth: there is no journalism in
Saudi Arabia; there is only crude and naked propaganda."
It is very unlikely that the people, who time and time again have been found to lack even a shred of human decency, compassion
and fairness, Brennan et al and I include WaPo in that, are now going gaga over the murder of a journo, who had strong links with
the power players in the region.
The way that these things have worked out in the media earlier, I think the order has come from higher up to push this incident
to damage either the relationship with SA or mbs. I think that keeping this incident hot has also kept the oil price high just
before the mid-term elections. surely, a higher oil price hurts trump. that might be a reason for the trump-hating crowd including
wapo to discover decency and fairness and other human virtues just right now. very intriguing, this reaction from the MSM.
I note that the British press is not pressing this issue as much, nor is Haaretz. Only the US MSM is pressing this very hard.
The US and the Brits before us have slavishly courted the Saudi Royals since before WWII. This is a constant through Republican
and Democratic administrations. The Trump administration is no exception. Why the murder of one journalist would challenge a half
century of established US policy at this time is beyond my understanding. Perhaps it's the proverbial straw that broke the camel's
back.
Someone from whose writings I have derived a great deal of instruction, as well as amusement, is Vladimir Golstein, a Russian
Jewish émigré now in charge of 'Slavic Studies' at Brown University.
I introduce his explanation of the response to the Khashoggi killing, in a 'Facebook' post, not because I think it should be
taken as some kind of authoritative truth, but because, as often, Golstein's irreverence is thought-provoking.
The post begins:
'Thank you, Saudi Arabia for exposing the utter hypocrisy and moral bankruptcy of British and American gangsta press and equally
gangsta establishment.
'You've been at it for a very long time. And it seems that finally you've got it right.'
After providing a long list of Saudi delinquencies, Golstein continues:
'I understand that you began to feel more and more desperate. You sided with Israel against Iran and Syria, and the rest
of the world said that it is a moral thing to do and put you on the UN human rights board.
'Well, finally, you hit the right cord. Killing innocent people and abusing your moneyed power by buying newspapers, hotels,
city districts or think tanks, was not enough to produce an outrage in the west, but when you whacked another cynical morally
corrupt journalist that proved too much for the cynical and morally corrupt western press. They decided to stand up for one
of their own.'
This does, I think, point to something rather important. And it leads to the thought that MBS and others may have miscalculated,
as a result of an 'hubris' which many in the West have actually encouraged – just as they have a parallel 'hubris' in Israel.
As Golstein, who has a great deal of complex history behind him, can see very clearly, it is an interesting question when
the 'sympathy' of Western 'liberals' is and is not actually felt.
What I think MBS may have missed is, quite precisely, the realisation that for people like Tom Friedman the fact that –
as Golstein is pointing out – Khashoggi is the same kind of animal as they are means that killing him touches them personally.
Second, he is the kind of figure whom they have, as it were, 'cast' in a 'starring role', in their 'narrative' as to how
somehow 'Saudi Barbaria' is going to 'modernise', and in so doing create a Middle East hospitable to a Jewish settler state.
So, in assassinating him, MBS may have unleashed a curious kind of psychological 'maelstrom.'
But, as well as hypocrisy, there is also a basic stupidity.
In fact, if one is reasonably 'worldlywise', one knows that people's sympathies, including one's own, are very often much more
limited than they profess to be. We commonly find it much easier to feel the griefs and pain of people whom we see as like ourselves,
than we do with those of others.
My own history, ironically, has been a move from finding it relatively easy to sympathise with people who write for the 'New
York Times', or the 'Guardian', or the 'New York Review of Books', to finding it really rather difficult.
There is also, however, about so many of these people, an element of sheer stupidity.
Whether one agrees, or disagrees, with 'deplorables' is relevant, but only partly so. Actually, people who would not appear
at the kind of 'party' which Jon Schwarz so aptly characterises have a very wide range of views, and I often agree in whole or
in part with such people, and also often disagree in whole or in part. It is not a simple matter.
A related but distinct question has to do with common prudence.
People who lock themselves in a kind of bubble of the supposedly 'enlightened' are not only doing the rest of us no favours,
but are inherently bound to head off in directions which are liable to be suicidal for themselves.
Prudent élites take the trouble at least to be aware that the world is not controllable by the comfortable people who appear
at their dinner parties, and realise that if they persist in trying to persuade themselves that it is, sooner or later their self-delusion
will blow up in their faces.
In relation to people like MBS, there is a double stupidity. The problem is not simply that he has been playing to their need
to believe that he wants to 'modernise' Saudi Arabia. It is also that they have wanted to believe that such a venture is possible,
which it almost certainly is not.
Yes, Vladimir Golstein has a point. The DC cocktail circuit have been offended as one of their fellow travelers has been offed.
If this will lead to a break with Saudi Barbaria that will be good. I'm cynical however. Brennan, et al just want their boy in
Riyadh not Jared's buddy.
Wait until it becomes clear that Israel in actuality negotiates her safety with Russia (it is ongoing as I type this)--that's
when the party will start in earnest.
"The US and the Brits before us have slavishly courted the Saudi Royals since before WWII."
TTG, as you are doubtless aware, it goes back even further, to early World War I. David Fromkin's seminal 1989 history, "A
Peace to End All Peace: The Fall of the Ottoman Empire and the Creation of the Modern Middle East (also subtitled Creating the
Modern Middle East, 1914–1922)":
https://en.wikipedia.org/wi... describes the machinations by British, French, and (later) Americans to play the competing
desert chieftains against each other, alternately catering to and dumping unceremoniously each one as political necessity dictated.
Recommended to readers wishing to further appreciate the roots of the irresolvable turmoil that is the modern Middle East.
Yes, there's clearly more than meets the eye. I agree with Jack that when Brennan is writing an op-ed calling for the head
of MbS something fishy is up. Kashoggi has had a long career at the heart of Saudi national security power structures. He's no
angel. Clearly he touched a nerve to be murdered so openly with no plausible deniability. Or maybe that was intentional. Then....the
reaction of the Deep State. Hmm?
Please don't get me wrong. Saudi Barbaria has been a corrupting influence for decades and the role they have played in
Syria, Libya is not to be condoned. I fully support walking away from our interventionist position in the Middle East and letting
the chips fall there. However, I have a deep distrust of Brennan and his motives. I can't put my finger on why the neocons are
reacting in this way in light of their previous attitude of ignoring such atrocities or even abetting them. This is raising suspicions.
The evidence I see is that a Saudi citizen who used to be a "regime insider" with high level connections and aligned with the
previous head of Saudi intelligence was brutally murdered by Saudi government officials. Turkey leaked this information and in
the leaks claim they have audio and video evidence of the murder. John Brennan and other neocons who previously have not only
supported but also connived in some of the atrocities committed by the Saudi government are demanding that MbS be held to account.
The question that is nagging me is why are the neocons reacting this way now, considering they have always carried water for
the Saudi royals when real dissidents have been routinely executed after show trials?
for example, how did Turks get the audio and possibly video of the deed, the transmission by Apple watch story may be just a red
herring, they may have independent sources and methods which the US is not privy to the word ´their´ in my remark intended to
say ´Turks´. Sorry about the unclear sentence.
I thought you Germans were supposed to be smart. You don't understand that MIT, the Turkish intelligence service had bugged the
consulate? What part of that do you not understand? Go get some strudel and think about it!
hahaha, I will eat it, BUT - if that is such a common knowledge that host states always bug the guest embassies and consulates,
that would mean that Saudis would have to assume that as well, so that they would make sure that these devices were ´blinded´,
and that would mean that there were other devices which they were not able to ´blind´. Just deep thinking, is that also German
trait?
Sounds like Klarity, a German trait. The Saudis probably lacked the skill to find the Turkish bugs. MIT, the Turkish service are
very skilled at installation.
Maybe this new surprising "moral" attitude has something to do with the mid-terms elections. Yes Saudi Arabia is a kind of traditional
commodity platform and surely not an Ally, but DJT did enhance the Saudis status as Partners in his projected Deal of the Century
(still not published).
The Khasoghi murder has become the DJT problem and while raising his expression for the outrage has also
opened the exit door, and provided a possibility to dilute MBS direct responsibility. Of interest is the Erdogan careful but repeated
supply of details.
What 'terrorists' attacked on 911...?...nobody knows what exactly happened on that day, and who was involved...except that the
official narrative is total BS...
Yes, one could lump me under the dismissive and unflattering epithet of 'truther'...after looking into some of the physical aspects
of the matter, the narrative is impossible on grounds of physics...that is not to say I am speculating on who or even the how...which
is where we see a lot of tinfoil hat stuff...but I have a solid engineering and aviation background...it could not have happened
the way we are told...
The President has authority under the Global Magnitsky Act to impose sanctions against
anyone who has committed a human rights violation. Congress has already requested a HR
investigation which Trump must act on and report to them within 4 months
It appears my prediction of Saudi gate may be right. This potentially is good news for
Iran and Russia. Perhaps not so good for Trump and Saidis. Israel may not be happy. Perhaps
his wife's plane troubles were a warning shot to remind him who is boss. Who knows ?
Haleys resignation beginning to make sense now. The House of Trump and House of Saud may
soon fall, and Bibi wont be happy losing Trump and MBS. We all know what they are capable of
to get things back on track
Why did the media held back on this so for so long?
Yemen (and Gaza).
CGTN & Al-Jazeera are the only global news outlets consistently and regularly reporting on the US facilitated
genocides in Yemen and Jewish-occupied Palestine/Gaza.
The never-ending Khashoggi non-mystery mystery keeps Yemen & Gaza out of the Jew-controlled Western Media
headlines. Saudi Barbaria and "Israel" are natural allies because each of them is an artificial Western political
construct with a cowardly and incompetent military apparatus and an anti-heroic penchant for slaughtering undefended
civilians - for psychopathic reasons.
--------
Talking about psychopathy...
Oz's Christian Zionist PM, Sco Mo, is blathering about following Trump's lead and moving Oz's Embassy in "Israel" to
Jerusalem. Sc Mo, who has never had an original idea in his life, still hasn't woken up to the fact that Trump's
Jerusalem gambit was a trap for Bibi. So it's hilarious that Sco Mo The Unoriginal, is planning to take a flying
leap into the same trap!
Anyone with more than half a brain would realise that...
1. No civilised country has followed Trump's lead.
2. Trump can, and will, reverse his (illegal) Jerusalem decision out of a 'new-found respect' for International Law.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Oct 18, 2018 12:14:08 AM |
83
Whoever is ultimately behind this campaign (which I
suspect is a loose association of interest groups spread throughout SA, Turkey, London citi, wall street, whoever)
they will not stop until MbS is paraded through the streets in chains or at least his head at the end of a lance. At
this point the only question how many days will it take to see his head on a pike?
"Their target that night: Anssaf Ali Mayo, the local leader of the Islamist
political party Al-Islah. The UAE considers Al-Islah to be the Yemeni branch of the worldwide Muslim Brotherhood,
which the UAE calls a terrorist organization. Many experts insist that Al-Islah, one of whose members won the Nobel
Peace Prize, is no terror group. They say it's a legitimate political party that threatens the UAE not through
violence but by speaking out against its ambitions in Yemen."
Getting to the bottom of the Jamal Khashoggi disappearance is a bit like peeling an onion.
It is known that Khashoggi entered the Saudi Arabian Consulate in Istanbul on October 2
nd to get a document that would enable him to marry a Turkish woman. It is also
known, from surveillance cameras situated outside the building, that he never came out walking
the same way he entered. The presumption is that he was either killed inside or abducted,
though the abduction theory would have to be based on a Consulate vehicle leaving the building
with him presumably concealed inside, something that has not been confirmed by the Turks. If he
was killed inside the building and dismembered, as seems likely, he could have had his body
parts removed in the suitcases carried by the alleged fifteen official Saudis who had arrived
that morning by private jet and left that afternoon the same way. The supposition is that the
fifteen men, which may have included some members of Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman's
bodyguard as well as a physician skilled in autopsies who was carrying a bone saw, constituted
the execution party for Khashoggi.
There are certain things that should be observed about the Turks, since they are the ones
claiming that the disappearance of Khashoggi may have included a summary execution and
dismemberment. The Turkish intelligence service, known by its acronym MIT, is very good, very
active and very focused on monitoring the activities of foreign embassies and their employees
throughout Turkey. They use electronic surveillance and, if the foreign mission has local
employees, many of those individuals will be agents reporting to the Turkish government. In my
own experience when I was in Istanbul, I had microphones concealed in various places in my
residence and both my office and home phones were tapped. A number of local hire consulate
employees were believed to be informants for MIT but they were not allowed anywhere near
sensitive information.
As Turkey and Saudi Arabia might be termed rivals if not something stronger, it is to be
presumed that MIT had the Consulate General building covered with both cameras and microphones,
possibly inside the building as well as outside, and may have had a Turkish employer inside who
observed some of what was going on. Which is to say that the Turks certainly know exactly what
occurred but are playing their cards closely to see what they can derive from that knowledge.
The two countries have already initiated a joint investigation into what took place. Turkey's
economy is in free fall and would benefit from "investment" from the Saudis to create an
incentive to close the book on Khashoggi. In other words, Turkey's perspective on the
disappearance could easily be influenced by Saudi money and the investigation might well turn
up nothing that is definitive.
Saudi Arabia, for its part, has a couple of cards to play also even if it did kill and
dismember Khashoggi under orders from the Crown Prince. First of all, the system of
petrodollars, which basically requires nearly all purchases of petroleum to be paid in dollars,
is underwritten by the Saudis. Petrodollars in turn enable the United States to print money for
which there is no backing knowing that there will always be international demand for dollars to
buy oil. The Saudis, who also use their own petrodollars to buy U.S. treasury bonds, could pull
the plug on that arrangement. That all means that the United States will be looking for an
outcome that will not do too much damage to the Saudis.
Second, Saudi Arabia is in bed with Israel in opposition to Iran. This means the Israel
Lobby and its many friends in Congress will squawk loudly about Khashoggi but ultimately shy
away from doing anything about it. It already appears that a cover story is halfway in place to
explain what happened. It is being suggested that a "rogue" element from Saudi Arabia might
have carried out without the knowledge of the Crown Prince an interrogation or abduction
attempt that went too far. Donald Trump speculated on Monday that that might be the case,
suggesting that it may already be part of the official line that will be promoted. Those who
know Saudi Arabia well, however, consider a high-level assassination not ordered by the Crown
Prince directly to be extremely unlikely, but that does not necessarily mean that a cover story
including that feature might not be successfully floated.
In regional terms, Saudi Arabia is also key to Trump's anticipated Middle East peace plan.
If it pulls out from the expected financial guarantees aspect, the plan will fall apart. Riyadh
is also committed to buy tens of billions of dollars' worth of American arms, an agreement that
could be canceled if Washington begins to pressure the Saudis for answers. Beyond that, Saudi
Arabia could stop pumping oil or fail to increase production when Iranian oil becomes subject
to U.S. sanctions early next month, driving the price per barrel up dramatically for everyone.
The Saudi government has already indicated that it will respond forcefully to any attempts to
punish it over Khashoggi and there is no reason to doubt the seriousness of that threat.
There are, of course, possible impediments to selling the fake news narrative. Some early
reports suggested that Khashoggi's fiancé had observed and possibly recorded the
execution inside the consulate using the victim's Apple wristwatch linked to an iPad in her
possession. If that is true, the release of such material to the media will create worldwide
demand to learn the truth that will be difficult to control. Also, there are unconfirmed
reports that U.S. intelligence knew in advance of Saudi plans to abduct Khashoggi, which could
prove embarrassing to the Trump administration and could narrow its options.
The trick will be to see how a bit of extreme brutal behavior by the Saudis can be
manipulated by all interested parties to produce a solution that doesn't damage anyone too
much. It will undoubtedly be far from the truth, but truth doesn't necessarily matter much
these days.
"... This is Naked Capitalism fundraising week. 1018 donors have already invested in our efforts to combat corruption and predatory conduct, particularly in the financial realm. Please join us and participate via our donation page , which shows how to give via check, credit card, debit card, or PayPal. Read about why we're doing this fundraiser and what we've accomplished in the last year, and our current goal, extending our reach . ..."
"... By Tsvetana Paraskova, a writer for the U.S.-based Divergente LLC consulting firm. Originally published at OilPrice ..."
"... As long as NATO exists, Washington will continue to use it to drive a wedge between the EU and Russia. Merkel foolishly went along with all of Washington's provocations against Russia in Ukraine, even though none of it benefited Germany's national interest. ..."
"... She did indeed go along with all the provocations and she sat back and said nothing while Putin railed against US sanctions. Yet Putin didn't blame Germany or the EU. Instead he said that the Germany/EU is currently trapped by the US and would come to their senses in time. He is leaving the door open. ..."
"... What US LNG exports? The US is a net importer of NG from Canada. US 2018 NG consumption and production was 635.8 and 631.6 Mtoe respectively (BP 2018 Stats). Even the BP 2018 Statistical Review of World Energy has an asterisks by US LNG exports which says, "Includes re-exports" which was 17.4 BCM or 15 Mtoe for 2018. ..."
"... Natural gas negotiations involve long term contracts so there are lots of money to exchange ensuring business for many years to come. Such a contract has recently been signed between Poland's PGNiG and American Venture Global Calcasieu & Venture Global Plaquemines LNG (Lousiana). According to the Poland representative this gas would be 20% cheaper than Russian gas. (if one has to believe it). Those contracts are very secretive in their terms. This contract in particular is still dependent on the termination of liquefaction facilities in Lousiana. ..."
"... IIRC, the US is pushing LNG because fracking has resulted in a lot of NG coincident with oil production. They've got so much NG coming out of fracked oil wells that they don't know what to do with it and at present, a lot of it just gets flared, or leaks into the atmosphere. ..."
"... So they turn to bullying the EU to ignore the price advantage that Russia is able to offer, due to the economics of pipeline transport over liquefaction and ocean transport, and of course the issues of reliability and safety associated with ocean transport, and high-pressure LNG port facilities compared to pipelines. ..."
"... Trump will probably offer the EU 'free' LNG port facilities financed by low-income American tax-payers, and cuts to 'entitlements', all designed to MAGA. ..."
"... It seems we have been maneuvering for a while to raise our production of LNG and oil (unsustainably) in order to become an important substitute supplier to the EU countries. It sort of looks like our plan is to reduce EU opposition to our attacking Russia. Then we will have China basically surrounded. This is made easier with our nuclear policy of "we can use nuclear weapons with acceptable losses." What could go wrong? ..."
"... The United States should lead by example. Telling Germany not to import Russian gas is rich considering the U.S. also imports from Russia. https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/07/12/russia-was-a-top-10-supplier-of-u-s-oil-imports-in-2017/ ..."
"... I just love the fact that Trump is publicly calling out Merkel on this; she has been nothing but two-faced and hypocritical on the Russia question. ..."
"... She was one of the ones who pushed the EU hard, for example, to sanction Russia in the wake of the coup in Ukraine (which she had also supported). And then she pushed the EU hard to kill off the South Stream pipeline, which would have gone through SE Europe into Austria. She used the excuse of 'EU solidarity' against 'Russian aggression' to accomplish that only to then turn around and start building yet another pipeline out of Russia and straight into Germany! The Bulgarians et al. must feel like real idiots now. It seems Berlin wants to control virtually all the pipelines into Europe. ..."
This
is Naked Capitalism fundraising week. 1018 donors have already invested in our efforts to
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and participate via our donation page , which shows how to give via
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accomplished in the last year, and our current goal, extending
our reach .
Yves here. It's not hard to see that this tiff isn't just about Russia. The US wants Germany
to buy high-priced US LNG.
By Tsvetana Paraskova, a writer for the U.S.-based Divergente LLC consulting firm.
Originally published at
OilPrice
The United States and the European Union (EU) are at odds over more than just the Iran
nuclear deal – tensions surrounding energy policy have also become a flashpoint for the
two global powerhouses.
In energy policy, the U.S. has been opposing the Gazprom-led and highly controversi
Saudi Update October 2018
http://crudeoilpeak.info/saudi-update-october-2018