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Programmers and system administrators are mass profession. There were approximately 435K programmers in the USA in 2006. I think number of system administrators are roughly the same, so we can speak about the labor army of one million people.

Contrary to superficial impression of individual cubicles and nice environment, IT is actually very unhealthy profession. With a high chance to be unemployed after 50.  More often then not, there are periods of considerable stress. Some are caused by catastrophic failures of hardware equipment, some by unrealistic schedules and workloads, some by own errors of particular programmer or sysadmin.

Overtime is common. Job security is deteriorating as outsourcing is rampant.  Employment after 50 is not guaranteed. Environment changes way too fast, and not always for good. Fashion rules (remember The Devil Wears Prada). Toxic managers are common (remember Office Space ;-)

So sooner of later a programmer need to face "medical-industrial complex" of the USA. And this is a dangerous "for profit" beast with tremendous appetite which maims and kills annually considerable amount of people. Living under Neoliberalism with its "greed is good" mentality and "homo homini lupus est" slogan is indeed dangerous  and requires knowledge of elementary "self-defense". Hippocratic oath no longer applies to medical profession in the USA. Most doctors still follow it, but there real sharks among them (with some ending their careers in jail like regular criminals) and you need to hope for the best but  prepare for the worst.  Especially rampant abuse is with cardiac stents (Overuse of Cardiac Stents Linked to Patient Deaths) with around a dozen of cardiologists serving jail terms (see for example Stent doctor Salisbury stent doctor sentenced to federal prison )

As USA Today reported (Doctors perform thousands of unnecessary surgeries):

Since 2005, more than 1,000 doctors have made payments to settle or close malpractice claims in surgical cases that involved allegations of unnecessary or inappropriate procedures, according to a USA TODAY analysis of the U.S. government's National Practitioner Data Bank public use file, which tracks the suits. About half the doctors' payments involved allegations of serious permanent injury or death, and many of the cases involved multiple plaintiffs, suggesting many hundreds, if not thousands, of victims.

Journal of the American Medical Association reviewed records for 112,000 patients who had an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD), a pacemaker-like device that corrects heartbeat irregularities. In 22.5% of the cases, researchers found no medical evidence to support installing the devices.

"Don't just take a doctor's word," says Patty Skolnik, who founded Citizens for Patient Safety after her son, Michael, died at 22 from complications in what she says was unnecessary brain surgery. "Research your doctor, research the procedure, ask questions, including the most important one: 'What will happen if I don't get this done?'"

A 1982 study in the journal Medical Care found that a mandatory second opinion program for Massachusetts Medicaid patients led to a 20% drop in certain surgeries, such as hysterectomies, that were considered more likely to be done unnecessarily. A 1997 study in the Journal of the American College of Surgeons looked at 5,601 patients recommended for surgery and found that second opinions found no need for the operation in 9% of the cases. Among those who got the countervailing second opinion, 62% opted not to have the operation.

But many patients simply aren't inclined to question their doctors.

"We expect the physician to know what's best for a patient," says William Root, chief compliance officer at Louisiana's Department of Health and Hospitals. "

We put so much faith and confidence in our physicians, (and) most of them deserve it. But when one of them is wrong or goes astray, it can do a lot of damage."

Chronic stress, overload, long hours, unhealthy diet  and other environmental factors  deeply and negatively affects the lifestyle of programmers and system administrators.  So there is nothing surprising that despite pretty comfortable work conditions many programmers/system administrators suffer from assortments on various diseases. Like other workers who spend long periods in front of a computer terminal typing at a keyboard, programmers are susceptible to:

Additional health problems are typical for those who experience constant stress and/or are typical "diseases of civilization". Among them

Also many programmers/sysadmins works as contractors and either do not have health insurance or have very basic health insurance. This is typical for young programmers and those who are over 50 and were let go on their previous jobs die to outsourcing

Low and middle income US citizens  spends far more on health care than any other country but gets only mediocre care in return for its investment. The U.S. national average score on 37 separate measures of health care falls far short when compared either to a few centers of excellence within the country, or to other countries, the report from the Commonwealth Fund found. And that's true not only in terms of mortality statistics but also in terms of quality of life.

The main problems with US healthcare are:

Programmers and system administrators can do much better is maintaining their health. And they are naturally equipped for dealing with complex system and thus able to navigate the maze of the USA "medical industrial complex"

A lot of outcomes depends on the level of individual knowledge. Knowledge is power both for avoiding unnecessary procedures (with some causing irreversible damage) , unnecessary overprescribed drugs, and when negotiating with health care providers.

Some facts:


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Old News ;-)

[Apr 05, 2020] Mortality by age group

Apr 05, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

S , Apr 2 2020 16:23 utc | 5

Verity et al. (March 30, 2020) have estimated the (adjusted) case fatality ratio, infection fatality ratio, and proportion of infections requiring hospitalization:

             Crude    Adjusted           Hospitalization
             CFR (%)  CFR (%)   IFR (%)  Rate (%)

    0-9       0.000   0.00260   0.00161   0.00
    10-19     0.182   0.0148    0.00695   0.0408
    20-29     0.193   0.0600    0.0309    1.04
    30-39     0.237   0.146     0.0844    3.43
    40-49     0.443   0.295     0.161     4.25
    50-59     1.30    1.25      0.595     8.16
    60-69     3.60    3.99      1.93     11.8
    70-79     7.96    8.61      4.28     16.6
    80+      14.8    13.4       7.80     18.4

    Total     2.29    1.38      0.657

[Apr 05, 2020] The percentage of deaths by Covid19 in the USA is 17.8 per million citizens, which corresponds to the usual percentage of seasonal influenza.

Apr 05, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Luc GUTHRIE , Apr 3 2020 15:13 utc | 279

Message from France :

First premise: This year, the percentage of influenza patients in relation to the total population is the same as in previous years.

Second premise: In previous years, seasonal influenza had a percentage of certain coronaviruses. This year the percentage is similar.

Third premise: The percentage of deaths among people who are infected is no different from other years.

Fourth premise: The media falsifies the percentage of deaths among those who are infected. The only serious study concerning the real mortality in the country where according to the media there are the most deaths (Italy) is the one carried out by the Italian Ministry of Health. It reveals that it is not 12% but 1.2% of sick patients, which corresponds to the usual mortality of influenza.

Fifth premise: this study reveals that the average age of the deceased is 80 years.

Additional information: The percentage of deaths by Covid19 in the USA is 17.8 per million citizens, which corresponds to the usual percentage of seasonal influenza.

Be careful, don't be an accomplice in the panic they want to create: This is essentially a media attack to disguise the economic meltdown they've created.

https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/covid-19/

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[Apr 05, 2020] Today 4-3-20, Covid is the third cause of death in USA

Apr 05, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

DFC , Apr 2 2020 22:11 utc | 103

Today 4-3-20, Covid is the third cause of death in USA, with around 1.100 deaths per day is only behind heart disease (1.774/day) and cancer (1.641/day), but in two weeks is expected to be clearly the leading cause of death in USA as it is now in Italy and Spain. It is a matter of when start to decrease the number of deaths to see if will be, or not, the leading cause of deaths in absolute terms (I expected and I think it will not)

https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article241677891.html

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

A lot of people are still saying it is a hoax, I think they will continue saying this even if connected to a ventilator (/sarc)

[Apr 05, 2020] Please provide a reference that says an asymptomatic person is contagious. If you are referring to the article published in the NEJM (New England Journal of Medicine), that turned out to be flawed as the women did display symptoms when she returned to Germany.

Apr 05, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

PokeTheTruth , Apr 2 2020 23:57 utc | 145

Richard Steven Hack @129

You wrote, " The difference between this virus and most previous viruses is that they required one to have a fever, i.e., symptoms, before being contagious. This one does not for at least one to two days before symptoms appear. So we know it's possible to be asymptomatic for at least one to two days and still be contagious."

Asymptomatic means no symptoms i.e., no sneezing, coughing or postnasal drip.
As far as transmission by sputum (spitting) or other secretions, I think that is a such a rare occurrence that it is too infinitesimal to statistically count. I mean come on, how many times have you touched someone's spit? Kissing is not known to spread the disease from an asymptomatic carrier either.

The other observations that suggest presymptomatic transmission of infection (meaning no symptoms) cannot be confirmed because it is unknown if the disease was present and active on surfaces before the subjects came in contact with it and with each other.

The disease is spread by sending a plume into the air as a result of a cough, sneeze or postnasal drip. A person comes in contact with the virus by being in the vicinity of the plume or when the virus falls on a surface and a person touches it and then somewhere on their body that allows entry (eyes, nasal passages or mouth.)

Please provide a reference that says an asymptomatic person is contagious. If you are referring to the article published in the NEJM (New England Journal of Medicine), that turned out to be flawed as the women did display symptoms when she returned to Germany.

Source: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomatic-patient-transmitting-coronavirus-wrong# .

[Apr 04, 2020] WATCH Trump's coronavirus task force gives update at White House

That was one of the worst decisions Trump administration made. Now they change their stance. Better later then never...
Notable quotes:
"... Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. ..."
Apr 04, 2020 | www.youtube.com

The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms .

Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don't need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing.

Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply.

Masks don't replace hand washing and social distancing.

[Apr 04, 2020] N95 vs FFP3 FFP2 masks what's the difference

Apr 04, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

A User , Apr 3 2020 22:36 utc | 85

There is still confusion between what is a mask & what is a respirator -basically a mask will protect others from your sputum & a respirator protects yourself from others.
I discovered a site N95 vs FFP3 & FFP2 masks – what's the difference? which explains the different masks & respirators and most importantly what the standards are. eg n95 amerika = KN95 China. As well as explaining the problems of valved devices versus unvalved etc.
It is clear layman style stuff free of dense bullshit, read it if you want to understand this stuff.

[Apr 04, 2020] I'll wear a mask to protect you, and you wear a mask to protect me

Apr 04, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Grieved , Apr 4 2020 3:24 utc | 118

I haven't seen this specifically mentioned so I'll offer it. My local newspaper of all things, published an editorial today calling for more people in our community to "mask up". It included this wonderful phrase that captures the true social dynamic and the logic of the situation:

"I'll wear a mask to protect you, and you wear a mask to protect me."

What's nice about this social compact is that it costs almost nothing, is in plentiful, makeshift supply (we're including bandanas and scarves - anything), and surely must do more good than harm, no matter how real or unreal the danger is, nor how prone to mishap or not the wearing of a mask is.

Such a compact surely must be a social good. If only there had been masks in the US - or leadership willing to plunge humble and naked into the realities of the situation and learn from Asia so we could all start making our own masks - then perhaps the US would not have had to do the most stupid thing possible to its lean productive economy, namely, shutting down the entire entrepreneur class of the country and throwing their employees into hazard and poverty.

Given that there was no safety net, and never was going to be despite the talk of the first few days, it could have saved countless deaths from poverty if the people if the US had learned the new social rules, including mask and physical distance etiquette immediately, and kept many of the businesses open instead of driving them to bankruptcy.

So the US is very late to the party, and will pay the price, but now the people who survive must learn how to live in the new normal. Masking-up in public seems the least impactful of all responses.

[Apr 04, 2020] Virus size and Brownian motion

Apr 04, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

A User , Apr 3 2020 22:56 utc | 92

re b's comment : "The HEPA filter catches particles down to 0.3 micrometer. Viruses are some 125 nanometer in diameter so they are smaller and could slip through. " .
That isn't strictly correct, there is a solid reason for the 0.3 micrometer limit related to Brownian motion,as I learned after reading a piece from the link I posted above - to wit:
The reason for the focus on 0.3 microns is because it is the "most penetrating particle size" (MPPS). Particles above this size move in ways we might anticipate, and will get trapped in a filter with gaps smaller than the particle size. Particles smaller than 0.3 microns exhibit what's called brownian motion – which makes them easier to filter. Brownian motion refers to a phenomenon whereby the particle's mass is small enough that it no longer travels unimpeded through the air. Instead it interacts with the molecules in the air (nitrogen, oxygen, etc), causing it to pinball between them, moving in an erratic pattern.

According to researchers this point between "normal" motion and brownian motion is the hardest particle size for filters to capture.

What we can take away from this, is that high filter efficiency at 0.3 micron size will generally translate to high filter efficiency below this size also.

[Apr 04, 2020] Vitamin D deficiency is common in the winter, has profound effects on human immune system

Apr 04, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Stonebird , Apr 3 2020 20:22 utc | 36

juliania | Apr 3 2020 19:06 utc | 13

Immunity can also be obtained naturally rather than by "vaccine".
You can ask your doctor for a strong Vitamin D supplement and probably buy them elswhere. The simplest is to go out in the same beautiful sunshine as we are now having in Europe.

vitamin D deficiency is common in the winter, and activated vitamin D, a steroid hormone, has profound effects on human immunity. D acts as an immune system modulator, preventing excessive expression of inflammatory cytokines and increasing the 'oxidative burst' potential of macrophages. Perhaps most importantly, it dramatically stimulates the expression of potent anti-microbial peptides, which exist in neutrophils, monocytes, natural killer cells, and in epithelial cells lining the respiratory tract where they play a major role in protecting the lung from infection.

The link.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/02/fight-the-virus-with-sunshine/
. . . . .

For information; one group that suffered from Vitamin D deficiency was Saudi Arabian women. Their Abbayas (full head covering with no eyes visible, right down to the toes. Maybe not the correct spelling of abbaya) did not let in the sun. So .....
Even face "masks" were not very efficient at "letting the sun shine in". However, the abbayas had one advantage; that was women suffered less from trachoma, an illness that is provoked by rubbing the eyes regularly (irritated because of the sand). The eye flips inward permanently, leaving only the white of the eye showing. ie. Blindness.

Personally my doctor prescribes a 200'000 UI D dose (drinkable) to be taken twice a year in November/December and February. Which I naturally took just before the Coronavirus hit around here.

[Apr 04, 2020] Use 30 minutes at 70 C in oven with the respirator put in a paper bag over put over something wooden in the oven

Apr 04, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Passer by , Apr 3 2020 19:48 utc | 22

Surgical masks are pretty good at stopping bacteria and larger droplets, but not aerosols (small particles). They also have lower quality fit, just like ordinary masks too.

Surgical masks are very good for blocking you own droplet emissions.

Simply use N99 respitator or FFP 3 respirator (EU standard).
Blocks 99 % of small particles, including virus transporting ones. It is used by medical personnel who handle corona and other viruses.

Use 30 minutes at 70 C in oven with the respirator put in a paper bag over put over something wooden in the oven. This method can be used for up to 20 times with minimal damage to the respirator filtration capacity, according to several studies. Another good method is putting it in commercial steam bag used for sterilisation of baby items for 3 minutes in a microwave oven, metal presence should not be a problem according to the study because the metal gets coated by the steam. This method can be used up to 10 times with minimal loss to the quality of the respirator. It is good for surgical masks too. Also use eye protection and gloves. These simple methods are good and some hospitals started using them.

Another way is 7 to 10 days keeping the mask in dry bag with acces to air, that significantly decreases viral load for most viruses. During this time use another respirator.

For homemade masks these methods should be good too.

Methods that decrease respirator quality are spirt based solutions, bleach based solutions, and longer exposure to steam. UVGI light and Hydrogen peroxide bath are also are relatively good methods for disinfection of masks.

Importantly do not touch the respirator's main surface with your fingers, secure a good fit, and always clean hands before and after handling the respirator.

Combine respirator mask with eye protection, raincoat and gloves. Put the raincoat and any new item you bring into the home for 3 days quarantine in some special room.

Stay away from people at minimum 7 meters, especially from those who don't have masks.

Use ethanol to clean your gloves before and after you visited a store.

For disinfection purposes ethanol is good, it kills 100 % of viruses and bacteria. Ethanol is used by russian Covid 19 disinfection teams in Italy for surface disinfection.

b , Apr 3 2020 20:10 utc | 33

@Passer by

Simply use N99 respitator or FFP 3 respirator (EU standard).
Blocks 99 % of small particles, including virus transporting ones. It is used by medical personnel who handle corona and other viruses.

1. None of such mask are currently available.
2. Even for hospital staff N95 aka FFP2 is sufficient to protect against SARS-CoV-19.
3. It is already very hard to wear and breathe through a N95 mask for a longer time. N99 masks are even worse!
4. The N99 masks have exhalatation valves which let the air from the person who wears it flow out freely. That defeats the current purpose of #MaskUp which is to protect from unknown spreaders.

I have trained for chemical warfare in the military. Wearing a tight mask with a filter (FFP3) system while moving around is physically very tiring after even an hour or so. You don't select a mask that is more difficult to breathe with than actually required.

[Apr 04, 2020] The Science Says #MaskUp - A Look At Two New Virus Studies

Notable quotes:
"... Infections from asymptomatic cases have an R 0 of 0.1 or 4% of all new infections. ..."
"... More new infections are created during the three pre-symptomatic days the virus carrier runs around then during the symptomatic one. ..."
"... Washing ones hands helps but environmental infections happen only in 10% of all new infections. The pre-symptomatic carriers are, without knowing it, the biggest spreader of the disease. Millions of the many billions of viruses that get created in their throat can attach to tiny water droplets or aerosols while a person breathes, speaks or coughs. ..."
Apr 04, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org
Dors , Apr 3 2020 19:05 utc | 10

The virus starts to replicate in significant numbers (billions per mililiter) on day 2 after the infection. The virus first replicates in the upper throat and the infected person starts to spread it to others simply by breathing, talking or coughing. Only on day 5 the infected person starts to develop first symptoms. The virus migrates into the lower lung and replicates there. The virus load in the upper throat will then start to decline. The immune system intervenes and defeats the virus but also causes additional lung damage which can kill people who have already other preexisting conditions . (Interestingly smokers seem not to develop a cytokine storms during a Covid infection and are thereby less prone to end up in the ICU.) On day 10 only few viruses will be found in the upper throat and the person will generally no longer be infectious.

The typical hospitalization point in China was only on day 9 to 12 after the onset of symptoms. At that point a test by swabs is nearly useless as the infected person will normally no longer have significant numbers of the virus in the upper throat. Reports of "defective tests from China" were likely caused by a lack of knowledge about this phenomenon. The diagnose in these later cases should be done by a CT scan which will show the lung damage.

We do know since late January that people can transmit the virus even when they have not yet developed symptoms. An open question was how many of new infections happen during this phase.

The new Science study investigated how many infections were created by each of four infection phases or types:

The study says that R 0 for pre-symptomatic infections is 0.9 or 46% of all new infections. Infections from a symptomatic persons happen with an R 0 of 0.8 which is equal to 40% of all new infections. Environmental infections have an R 0 of 0.2 or 10% of all new infections. Infections from asymptomatic cases have an R 0 of 0.1 or 4% of all new infections.

More new infections are created during the three pre-symptomatic days the virus carrier runs around then during the symptomatic one.

Washing ones hands helps but environmental infections happen only in 10% of all new infections. The pre-symptomatic carriers are, without knowing it, the biggest spreader of the disease. Millions of the many billions of viruses that get created in their throat can attach to tiny water droplets or aerosols while a person breathes, speaks or coughs.

Such spreading can be prevented when everyone wears a mask. A different new study shows that masks are very effective. Published in Nature the study is titled:

Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masks .

The graphic (here cut off for only corona viruses) shows how masks can keep away your droplets from the people you meet and talk to.


bigger

If the carrier of a virus wears a mask the spreading of viruses due to speaking, coughing or even breathing goes basically down to zero.

But a mask does not only protect the carrier of the viruses. While homemade or even professional surgical mask do not protect the wearer from all particles they do protect one much better from them than when one wears no mask at all.

A person rarely gets infected by just one virus particle. They come in millions attached to tiny droplets. We do not know yet how the dose of the novel coronavirus that infects a person affects the intensity of the disease. But we do know from other viruses that the dose matters. People who catch a higher dose of viruses will usually have a more intense disease. A mask can lower the virus load the wearer may receive.

One can improvise a mask from simple household objects. One can sew a mask like a surgeon does in this video . This is my preferred model which is officially recommended by German fire departments. (The pdf is in German but the pictures tell the story). This is the mask I made by following those instructions.


bigger

It is made of a folded sheet cut from a triangular arm-sling out of an old first-aid kit. A HEPA microfilter (as used in a vacuum cleaners) is in between the folded sheet. A piece cut from a clean bag for vacuum cleaners will do as well. Do not use a sheet or insert that is too tight to breathe through. If one does that the air will come in from the sides of the mask and the total protection effect will be less. It can be arduous to breathe through such a mask. If you have breathing problems leave the insert out. The sheets alone are already good protection. There is a piece of wire from a big paper clip fixed inside the middle of the upper seam to fit the mask tightly around the upper nose. The lower part goes under the chin. I shaved my beard to make it a tighter fit. As I had no sewing equipment I used a stapler to fix the seams and the ribbons.

The HEPA filter catches particles down to 0.3 micrometer. Viruses are some 125 nanometer in diameter so they are smaller and could slip through. But the viruses are attached to some droplet that are bigger. HEPA filter are essentially labyrinths of small fiber and the viruses would have to bounce multiple times to get through. Finally the dose also matters.

To clean the mask of potential viruses I put it into the oven for 30 minutes at 70C (158F).

The science says that masks work. Everyone should use one. #MaskUp!

---
Here some additional links which might be of interest.

So far, to the frustration of both the White House and the intelligence community, the agencies have been unable to glean more accurate numbers through their collection efforts.

That's because the Chinese numbers are as correct as they can get

Since none of us is an expert or eminently knowledgeable on this topic, for the sake of sharing information to develop our views here is data that suggests otherwise...

via https://twitter.com/denisrancourt/status/1246070568090288128

Emerging Infectious Diseases journal, Volume 26, Number 6—June 2020
Research Letter : Serial Interval of COVID-19 among Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases
Abstract. We estimate the distribution of serial intervals for 468 confirmed cases of 2019 novel coronavirus disease reported in China as of February 8, 2020. The mean interval was 3.96 days (95% CI 3.53–4.39 days), SD 4.75 days (95% CI 4.46–5.07 days); 12.6% of case reports indicated presymptomatic transmission .

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0357_article

[Apr 04, 2020] The majority of viral infections come from prolonged exposures in confined spaces with other infected individuals. COVID-19 doesn't spread as easily as first thought

There was another study suggesting that many infection do not go beyond mild common cold, with a conjecture that with small initial number of viruses the organism, T-cells in the mouth and throat etc. learn to eliminate viruses in time to prevent severe lung infection. Thus gives value to masks that are not 100% effective.
You can will mark my mask for each day of the week and rely on the fact that after paper or fabric is completely dry ythe virus fdies in 72 hours.
Apr 04, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org
Allen , Apr 3 2020 21:33 utc | 69
The World Health Organization released a study on how China responded to COVID-19. Currently, this study is one of the most exhaustive pieces published on how the virus spreads.

The results of their research show that COVID-19 doesn't spread as easily as first thought.

The majority of viral infections come from prolonged exposures in confined spaces with other infected individuals. Person-to-person and surface contact is by far the most common cause. From the WHO report, "When a cluster of several infected people occurred in China, it was most often (78-85%) caused by an infection within the family by droplets and other carriers of infection in close contact with an infected person.

Routes of transmission

COVID-19 is transmitted via droplets and fomites during close unprotected contact between an infector and infectee. Airborne spread has not been reported for COVID-19 and it is not believed to be a major driver of transmission based on available evidence; however, it can be envisaged if certain aerosol-generating procedures are conducted in health care facilities.

Household transmission

In China, human-to-human transmission of the COVID-19 virus is largely occurring in
families. The Joint Mission received detailed information from the investigation of clusters and some household transmission studies, which are ongoing in a number of Provinces. Among 344 clusters involving 1308 cases (out of a total 1836 cases reported) in Guangdong Province and Sichuan Province, most clusters (78%-85%) have occurred in families. Household transmission studies are currently underway, but preliminary studies ongoing in Guangdong estimate the secondary attack rate in households ranges from 3-10%.

Full Reprt Here:

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Piotr Berman , Apr 3 2020 21:35 utc | 70

The coefficient from the simulation are selected to match observed infections and they are not "facts" but useful guidelines. The bottom line is that the infection happen in some proportion, a large part from asymptomatic people. There was another study suggesting that many infection do not go beyond mild common cold, with a conjecture that with small initial number of viruses the organism, T-cells in the mouth and throat etc. learn to eliminate viruses in time to prevent severe lung infection. Thus gives value to masks that are not 100% effective.

Surely, the actual infection rate depends on the customs in a particular area. Oriental people are not in habit of kissing, embracing, clasping hands etc., plus they are quick to wear masks. Mediterranean people, which may include Iran, embrace, clasp hands and even kiss (I assume that Muslim would greet only people of the same gender in that way). Masks are not a habit. Crowded subway, buses etc. involve a lot of very close contacts, which may be OK if EVERYONE has a decent mask.

I guess I will mark my mask for each day of the week and rely on the fact that after paper or fabric is completely dry, viruses die (cease to become viable) within hours, so one does not have to rush the drying process by special heating. On the other hand, one could try to gently dry in the cloth drier in a bag for female underwear. We do not damage viruses by heat but by the lack of moisture. Masks seems to be limited.

[Apr 04, 2020] Face Mask Disinfection Sterilization for Viruses

Apr 04, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Richard Steven Hack , Apr 3 2020 22:35 utc | 84

@Passer by | Apr 3 2020 19:48 utc | 22

Excellent advice. This is what I've gleaned as well from some of the articles I've posted here in earlier threads.

This article gives more detailed advice although it seems to require a fair amount of work:

Covid-19 Pandemic: Face Mask Disinfection & Sterilization for Viruses
https://tinyurl.com/qtehozu

These are the reuse recommendations I'll be following, from Dr. Peter Tsai, the inventor of the filtration fabric in the N95 mask:
N95 Re-Use Instructions (Updated as of April 3, 2020)
https://www.sages.org/n-95-re-use-instructions/

I intend to follow the advice of rotating masks - once I have masks. It's likely that four days would be sufficient to dry out any droplets or aerosols and inactivate any virus. However, longer obviously would be better.

I'm going to order some masks from China today, if I can. Also perhaps some impermeable food surface plastic gloves to deal with contact infections.

.... .... ...

[Apr 04, 2020] Here's Every Vaccine And Treatment In Development For COVID-19, So Far

Apr 04, 2020 | www.zerohedge.com

As the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases continues to skyrocket, healthcare researchers around the world are working tirelessly to discover new life-saving medical innovations.

As Visual Capitalist's Nick Routley notes , the projects these companies are working on can be organized into three distinct groups:

  1. Diagnostics: Quickly and effectively detecting the disease in the first place
  2. Treatments: Alleviating symptoms so people who have disease experience milder symptoms, and lowering the overall mortality rate
  3. Vaccines: Preventing transmission by making the population immune to COVID-19

Today's graphics provide an in-depth look at who's in the innovation race to defeat the virus, and they come to us courtesy of Artis Ventures , a venture capital firm focused on life sciences and tech investments.

Editor's note: R&D is moving fast on COVID-19, and the situation is quite fluid. While today's post is believed to be an accurate snapshot of all innovations and developments listed by WHO and FDA as of March 30, 2020, it is possible that more data will become available.

Knowledge is Power

Testing rates during this pandemic have been a point of contention. Without widespread testing, it has been tough to accurately track the spread of the virus, as well as pin down important metrics such as infectiousness and mortality rates . Inexpensive test kits that offer quick results will be key to curbing the outbreak.

Here are the companies and institutions developing new tests for COVID-19:

The ultimate aim of companies like Abbott and BioFire Defense is to create a test that can produce accurate results in as little as a few minutes.

In the Trenches With Coronavirus

While the majority of people infected with COVID-19 only experience minor symptoms, the disease can cause severe issues in some cases – even resulting in death. Most of the forms of treatment being pursued fall into one of two categories:

  1. Treating respiratory symptoms – especially the inflammation that occurs in severe cases
  2. Antiviral growth – essentially stopping viruses from multiplying inside the human body

Here are the companies and institutions developing new treatment options for COVID-19:

A wide range of players are in the race to develop treatments related to COVID-19. Pharma and healthcare companies are in the mix, as well as universities and institutes.

One surprising name on the list is Fujifilm . The Japanese company's stock recently shot up on the news that Avigan, a decades-old flu drug developed through Fujifilm's healthcare subsidiary, might be effective at helping coronavirus patients recover. The Japanese government's stockpile of the drug is reportedly enough to treat two million people.

Vaccine

The progress that is perhaps being watched the closest by the general public is the development of a COVID-19 vaccine.

Creating a safe vaccine for a new illness is no easy feat. Thankfully, rapid progress is being made for a variety of reasons, including China's efforts to sequence the genetic material of Sars-CoV-2 and to share that information with research groups around the world.

Another factor contributing to the unprecedented speed of development is the fact that coronaviruses were already on the radar of health science researchers. Both SARS and MERS were caused by coronaviruses, and even though vaccines were shelved once those outbreaks were contained, learnings can still be applied to defeating COVID-19.

One of the most promising leads on a COVID-19 vaccine is mRNA-1273. This vaccine, developed by Moderna Therapeutics , is being developed with extreme urgency, skipping straight into human trials before it was even tested in animals. If all goes well with the trials currently underway in Washington State, the company hopes to have an early version of the vaccine ready by fall 2020. The earliest versions of the vaccine would be made available to at-risk groups such as healthcare workers.

Further down the pipeline are 15 types of subunit vaccines. This method of vaccination uses a fragment of a pathogen, typically a surface protein, to trigger an immune response, teaching the body's immune system how to fight off the disease without actually introducing live pathogens.

No Clear Finish Line

Unfortunately, there is no silver bullet for solving this pandemic.

A likely scenario is that teams of researchers around the world will come up with solutions that will incrementally help stop the spread of the virus, mitigate symptoms for those infected, and help lower the overall death toll. As well, early solutions rushed to market will need to be refined over the coming months.

We can only hope that the hard lessons learned from fighting COVID-19 will help stop a future outbreak in its tracks before it becomes a pandemic. For now, those of us on the sideline can only do our best to flatten the curve .

[Apr 03, 2020] It appears the Fed. authorities are weak and disorganised, etc. Ex. the CDC seems to play little role, not a consequent one.

Apr 03, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Noirette , Apr 2 2020 17:32 utc | 26

Some of the underlying 'causes' of the mega-disaster to unfold in USA.

Geography, huge, with Federation pol. structure.

It appears the Fed. authorities are weak and disorganised, etc. Ex. the CDC seems to play little role, not a consequent one. States put in place their own policies, which vary from quite strict to almost none at all re. preventing contact (1, just an ex., not much good) and generally, coordination is lacking - a patchwork of policies absent strictly enforced borders will produce crap results.

Society.

Exceptionalism and individualism. Americans are used to feeling 'exceptional', i.e. free to do as they please or what they *think* is fit (individualim, in fact the scope for action for citizens is very narrow), righteous and protected (exeptionalism..), and I mean this not in the sense that ppl will resist constraints / orders / appeals, advice, etc. but that the society is too dependent on opinions, tribes, cult-like groups, as all is OK (identity politics, cultish religions, wacky opinions, not to mention cabals, monopolistic groups, etc.) and is reflected, taken on board, by authorities - see some of b's exs.

Oligarchy and crony capitalism.

Health care, public health are For Profit Enterprises. Such a system is incapable of taking care of the population on the ground, it isn't designed for that, and can't take on the task. The MIC (medical industrial complex, Big Pharma the no. 1 actor, med. machinery no. 2.) is geared to extracting profit where it can be found.

This implies billing those who can pay (privatising health care > the rich have access but the poor not), and giving a lot of room to 'middle men' (e.g. insurance cos) who can extract from the middles and plebs what they can 'bear' or 'pay' outside of any illness or need for health care. Scam on scam, institutionalised.

It also ensures that treatment, procedures, medications, and more will be based on 'what can be sold' to a gullible public or 'what can be made mandatory / heavily advised' thru lobbying, i.e. in accord with the corrupted stooge Gvmt. -- completely divorced from any public health criteria.

So this won't end well....(not that other countries are so much better, but other topic.)

https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard

[Apr 03, 2020] The problem of distinguishing "from coronavirus deaths and "with coronavirus" deaths

Apr 03, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

PokeTheTruth , Apr 2 2020 19:52 utc | 61

A postmortem by a competent pathologist is the only way to confirm cause of death.

Americans must not be led like lemmings over the cliff of disease paranoia chased by an invisible bug unless there is irrefutable proof that COVID-19 and ONLY COVID-19 was the principle reason attributed to a person's demise.

Investigative journalists ( b?) must dig into the facts and interview some of the hundreds of ME's (medical examiners) who performed autopsies on these people and ask these questions:

1. Did the autopsy reveal the presence of other chronic diseases pulmonary or otherwise, that could have contributed to the death of the person (e.g., influenza, COPD, emphysema, tuberculosis, heart disease, cancers, etc.?

2. Was the deceased taking medication that suppressed the immune system such as for rheumatoid arthritis?

3. Did the autopsy reveal the presence of disease of the respiratory system due to harmful inhalants (smoking tobacco, vaping)?

4. Did the autopsy show the patient had heart or vascular problems and had surgeries to correct them such as stent implants, pace maker or other medical devices?

5. Did the deceased receive chemotherapy treatment for cancer related illness?

Unless every answer to the above questions is an affirmative 'No", the public must not believe that only COVID-19 caused the death of these people. This calls into question the number of reported COVID-19 deaths has been deliberately inflated to cause panic in America as well as around the world.

The next question is, for what other purpose are governments doing this?

David F , Apr 2 2020 20:19 utc | 67

PokeTheTruth | Apr 2 2020 19:52 utc | 61

Can you not see the il-logic in your criteria? Suppose a person has an underlying illness, that will eventually prove fatal. If I shoot that person in the head are we going to say that the cause of death was the underlying illness, or are we going to say it was the bullet to the head?

Many people live with underlying illnesses for years. The criteria that should be used is: why did that person die right now? If what killed them right now is a viral infection, then the fact that the underlying illness would have killed them eventually is meaningless, the cause of death is the viral infection.

I think that some people are adamant that they will not believe there is a deadly virus in our midst. Nothing said to them is going to make them believe this, they will keep changing their reasons for the denial. This is somewhat understandable to a point. Yes our government lies about everything, and yes they take every opportunity to enrich themselves and increase their power. My initial reaction was dismissive, I too thought it was a case of overblown hype, but as the days and weeks passed, and the facts changed, so did my opinion.

The overwhelming evidence is pointing to a serious, deadly virus in our midst, and it is time people start acting appropriately. Even the people who understandably ignored the boy who cried wolf, eventually came to the realization that there was indeed a wolf in their midst.

[Apr 03, 2020] US pushes conspiracy theory on China's coronavirus death toll to deflect from Trump administration failures

Apr 03, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

ak74 , Apr 2 2020 17:22 utc | 23

More on America's great Wuhan Urn Psyops of 2020.

US pushes conspiracy theory on China's coronavirus death toll to deflect from Trump administration failures
https://thegrayzone.com/2020/04/01/us-conspiracy-theory-on-china-coronavirus-trump/

Add this to the list of American disinformation campaigns like mythical Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction; Kuwaiti Incubator babies; Muammar Qaddafi's "Viagra rape squads"; Syrian "chemical weapons" use in Douma; Russia hacking America's faux democracy; USA-armed moderate jihadists in Syria; and the fraudulent War on Terror.

The more people die in America because of the Coronavirus pandemic, the more America points the finger at China ... as if this somehow makes the Land of the Free's criminal negligence in this pandemic more "tolerable."

Pathetic.

Truly Pathetic.

[Apr 03, 2020] Truth about masks: does it help? yes, every little bit is better than nothing

Apr 03, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

A.L. , Apr 2 2020 19:46 utc | 59

Truths about mask:

1. does it stop you from catching the bug 100%? No, including N95, P100, whatever. there's leakage and also many other infection vectors.

2. do most people know how to don, adjust and handle used masks properly? No

3. does it help? yes, every little bit is better than nothing

4. dirty little secret - for most of Asia with exception of probably Japan, people wear mask not because they are trying to protect others if they are asymptomatic carriers. They do it out of good old self preservation. it DOES, however, have the useful side effect that the end result is the same - asymptomatic carriers are also covered.

[Apr 02, 2020] Testing is everything. And, the U.S. has seen a criminal shortage of tests that continues to this day.

Apr 02, 2020 | thehill.com

Donny Lied Americans Died 10 hours ago

Testing is everything. And, the U.S. has seen a criminal shortage of tests that continues to this day

[Apr 02, 2020] Has America's misnamed "intelligence community" leaked anything truthful to the mass media since the run-up to America attacking Iraq?

Apr 02, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

William Gruff , Apr 1 2020 19:28 utc | 13

Serious question: Has America's misnamed "intelligence community" leaked anything truthful to the mass media since the run-up to America attacking Iraq?

I have been trying to remember an instance when they have not lied and am having trouble with that so if anyone else knows I would appreciate a quick reminder.

jayc , Apr 1 2020 19:48 utc | 16

Narrative management seeking a scapegoat. US intelligence argues that China officially knew of pandemic in November, and implies that an alleged failure to sound the alarm until end of December created the conditions resulting in US and other countries to be unprepared. This is nonsense. All countries outside of China had more than enough time to prepare. The failing of US leaders and bureaucracy has been exemplified by first allowing identified infected persons to freely wander through NYC, for example, since February, followed by allowing outbreaks within their own military forces.

Deliberate state-sponsored campaigns to create/identify scapegoats has numerous awful precedents historically.

Trailer Trash , Apr 1 2020 19:56 utc | 18
Exact numbers are not important, but the policies are. The Chinese policy has been very clear right from the beginning: eradicate the virus. It seems to be working. The US policy has been murky from the start, but appears to be : don't eradicate the virus; let it become endemic. The latest evidence for this is a sign next to Trump: "30 Days To Slow The Spread". These two policies are fundamentally incompatible. I am still thinking that Uncle Sam wants to surround China and friends with endemic corona virus.

The US police state which has been evolving for decades has now ripped away the facade of freedom overnight. Where I live the state governor has issued an "executive order" placing us all under house arrest unless we meet certain exceptions, to be decided by ham-fisted bureaucrats and police.

The Governor's order which effectively seizes every resident without a warrant or probable cause or due process of any kind is patently offensive and unconstitutional. Meanwhile there will be no statewide moratorium on rent, mortgages, utilities, so landlords are free to evict tenants who are prohibited from earning a living.

During a press conference she was asked about this. She said talked to a few landlords (who no doubt contribute to her election campaigns) who informed her that a "one-size-fits-all" approach was not acceptable to them.

There are no defined endpoints to these restrictions. Now that the racetracks are closed, instead of betting on dogs and ponies we should start a pool on how long until the whole place explodes like a super volcano. My bet is for the third day of a 90F plus heat wave in Washington DC - probably by mid-June.

Clueless Joe , Apr 1 2020 20:01 utc | 19
TJ: Why the fuck did any country let in anyone coming from China is the real question one should ask. Of course, China should've closed down its own borders to protect others, but the other governments who willingly did nothing, endangering their very own populations, are even more guilty.
Besides, one can make the same accusation against most countries, to begin with Italy: Why did Italy not close its borders when the virus spread there? The bulk of European infections can be traced back the Northern Italy after all. So, there again, the biggest crime lies with other European governments who failed to fully isolate Italy as soon as it was obvious the infections appeared there.

B: I made the same reasoning, Hubei is big and has plenty of deaths all around. If there were no funerals for more than 2 months, that's a lot of urns lying around.
As for the current "China lied about the numbers", these idiots should've guessed it was serious shit when China put under lockdown a 60-mio people province that was nowhere near rebellion Hong-Kong style. As far as I can see, it's mostly Western asshole leaders deflecting attention and trying to make their people believe they did a good job and no one could've done better, since after all China had a horrendous death rate as well - though I hope most people won't fall for such an obvious lie.

vk , Apr 1 2020 20:18 utc | 24
@ Posted by: TJ | Apr 1 2020 19:50 utc | 18

We could invert your question: if the West is so superior than China, then why didn't its intelligence system didn't see through China's alleged lies and immediately blocked flights from China to their respective countries?

Either you are superior or you're not. You can't be both at the same time.

The simplest explanation is the correct one:

West's sense of superiority caused failure to act promptly

Even in this op-ed, the Global Times contained. It didn't mention capitalism's degeneration since 2008, which left it in a very frail state (that's probably why they hired a British analyst to write it).

Ghost Ship , Apr 1 2020 20:30 utc | 28
There were people who were infectious who left China before the Chinese authorities had even identified the COVID-19. The only way to stop an infection entering a country would be to insist that every single visitor to that country remained in quarantine for thirty days after entry. Just imagine the impact on tourism and business. To visit for a one hour business meeting requires two months in quarantine, one month upon entry to the destination country and another month on return to the home country as all countries would be entitled to demand similar quarantine terms.
As for Italy :
He says it looks unlikely that Italy could have done anything to completely prevent the virus from entering. "The only thing we could have done is introducing the current lockdown on 30 January, a decision that was impossible and unthinkable at the time," he says. Even stopping flights from China might have had no influence at all, he says – new, provisional research suggests that the coronavirus reached Italy from Germany.

Every country in the EU closing its borders to residents of every other country in the EU without good cause couldn't happen. And the UK, which was leaving the EU did nothing at its borders - I read tweets through February and March from air passengers travelling to the UK that were amazed at the lack of testing and quarantine even when fellow passengers clearly displayed the symptoms of COVID-19.
Екатери́на , Apr 1 2020 20:37 utc | 31
Rats appear to be scurrying to deflect attention from the ratlines.

Bhadrakumar had an interesting piece up suggesting some truth telling is likely going on in certain circles.

In an exclusive remark, a "source in the Russian Foreign Ministry" told the state news agency Tass:

"In order to unambiguously answer the question about the origin, about where the first case emerged, major research needs to be carried out. So, Washington's accusing tone in comments against China arouses blatant bewilderment."

The source then went on to touch on the allegation made in China -- namely, that a team of American military personnel had visited Wuhan, China, previously before the outbreak. The Russian Foreign Ministry source said:

"As for "US trace" in the COVID-19 outbreak, we don't have this data today. However, for a long time we have been watching with concerns the US military and biological activity carried out in direct proximity with our borders. In other words, there are indeed questions for the US."

Now, a few things must be said right at the outset. Any longtime observer of the Russian state system, media culture and Russian diplomacy would know that Tass, which functions under the supervision of the Kremlin is not in the business of lapping up stray remarks by a moonlighting Russian source.

....Suffice to say, one plausible explanation for the Tass report today is that Moscow has alerted Trump to something that he may not yet be aware of. "

Russia quizzes US on coronavirus' parentage


William Gruff @14: One hardly needs to leak if one is manning the news desks!

Red Ryder , Apr 1 2020 20:51 utc | 39 For all the Monday morning quarterbacks, factor this in your criticisms: the Chinese, the WHO, the world's experts did not know how infectious this virus was until it was in South Korea. That Korean cult religious group and the spread from there was the first clear sign.

China had its infectious impact in its Wuhan hospitals, when they began losing doctors and nurses to the virus. It was six weeks into the breakout before the scientists understood that the danger was the spread, not the deadliness.

The fear then woke everyone that modern hospitals could not handle the spiral spread, the logarithmic growth potential of COVID-19.

Now, we know that the virus began outside China many months before Wuhan. Probably, summertime 2019. There are a lot of "flu" deaths in the USA which were symptomatic but untested that match COVID-19. Many deaths were caused by that virus in 2019. And there are many survivors who describe the experience identical to those who survive it now.

Dispersing the herd, social distancing, is the most effective tool to mitigate the epidemic potential of this virus. Where that was done, it slowed and died. It needs crowds of people to keep growing and keep going.

Watch it wipe out the crew on the Teddy Roosevelt.

[Apr 02, 2020] Some plausible but unverified guidelines

Apr 02, 2020 | hub.jhu.edu

Statement about listerine is obviously wrong.

George Obrien 7 days ago • edited ,

Did Johns Hopkins issue the following guidelines (I don't think they did)?

1. The virus is not a living organism, but a protein molecule (DNA) covered by a protective layer of lipid (fat), which, when absorbed by the cells of the ocular, nasal or buccal mucosa, changes their genetic code. (mutation) and convert them into aggressor and multiplier cells.

2. Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed, but decays on its own. The disintegration time depends on the temperature, humidity and type of material where it lies.

3. The virus is very fragile; the only thing that protects it is a thin outer layer of fat. That is why any soap or detergent is the best remedy, because the foam CUTS the FAT (that is why you have to rub so much: for 20 seconds or more, to make a lot of foam). By dissolving the fat layer, the protein molecule disperses and breaks down on its own.

4. HEAT melts fat; this is why it is so good to use water above 25 degrees Celsius for washing hands, clothes and everything. In addition, hot water makes more foam and that makes it even more useful.

5. Alcohol or any mixture with alcohol over 65% DISSOLVES ANY FAT, especially the external lipid layer of the virus.

6. Any mix with 1 part bleach and 5 parts water directly dissolves the protein, breaks it down from the inside.

7. Oxygenated water helps long after soap, alcohol and chlorine, because peroxide dissolves the virus protein, but you have to use it pure and it hurts your skin.

8. NO BACTERICIDE SERVES. The virus is not a living organism like bacteria; they cannot kill what is not alive with anthobiotics, but quickly disintegrate its structure with everything said.

9. NEVER shake used or unused clothing, sheets or cloth. While it is glued to a porous surface, it is very inert and disintegrates only between 3 hours (fabric and porous), 4 hours (copper, because it is naturally antiseptic; and wood, because it removes all the moisture and does not let it peel off and disintegrates). ), 24 hours (cardboard), 42 hours (metal) and 72 hours (plastic). But if you shake it or use a feather duster, the virus molecules float in the air for up to 3 hours, and can lodge in your nose.

10. The virus molecules remain very stable in external cold, or artificial as air conditioners in houses and cars. They also need moisture to stay stable, and especially darkness. Therefore, dehumidified, dry, warm and bright environments will degrade it faster.

11. UV LIGHT on any object that may contain it breaks down the virus protein. For example, to disinfect and reuse a mask is perfect. Be careful, it also breaks down collagen (which is protein) in the skin, eventually causing wrinkles and skin cancer.

12. The virus CANNOT go through healthy skin.

13. Vinegar is NOT useful because it does not break down the protective layer of fat.

14. NO SPIRITS, NOR VODKA, serve. The strongest vodka is 40% alcohol, and you need 65%.

15. LISTERINE IF IT SERVES! It is 65% alcohol.

16. The more confined the space, the more concentration of the virus there can be. The more open or naturally ventilated, the less.

17. This is super said, but you have to wash your hands before and after touching mucosa, food, locks, knobs, switches, remote control, cell phone, watches, computers, desks, TV, etc. And when using the bathroom.

18. You have to HUMIDIFY HANDS DRY from so much washing them, because the molecules can hide in the micro cracks. The thicker the moisturizer, the better.

19. Also keep your NAILS SHORT so that the virus does not hide there.

omer92 George Obrien 6 days ago ,

IMHO only 20% of the note shows some imprecise or wrongly interpreted examples (like f i Listerine) , but when 80% looks correct, we ABSOLUTELY need to find the source and disseminate it in order to help people understand and , why not, start thinking on why and how apply the recommendations AFTER having understood the logic behind the detailed and practical recommendations which do make sense but which we need to justify and assess before we carry them further as full "truth"

[Apr 02, 2020] Is it okay to take ibuprofen to treat coronavirus symptoms?

Apr 02, 2020 | wired.co.uk

On March 14, French health minister Olivier Véran made a blunt statement on Twitter – warning that people should stay away from using ibuprofen to treat coronavirus symptoms. Some patients in France had experienced adverse affects using non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs to treat the disease. The tweet has sparked rampant disinformation on WhatsApp and social media, but there is currently no strong evidence that ibuprofen can make coronavirus worse. Even so, the NHS is still advising that – until we have further evidence – people should avoid using ibuprofen to treat coronavirus symptoms and take paracetamol instead. If you can't take paracetamol, or are taking ibuprofen on the advice of a doctor, make sure you check with a doctor before you make any changes to your medication.

Updated 04.03.20, 11:05 GMT: The article has been updated to clarify that some alcohol gels are effective against norovirus.

Matt Reynolds is WIRED's science editor. He tweets from

[Apr 02, 2020] We need to look into why the most active countries that do not practice self isolation, while wearing face masks, have very lowest death rates compared to case numbers. I.e., Singapore, South Korea, Russia, Japan, etc...

Apr 02, 2020 | hub.jhu.edu

FFClementi5 hours ago • edited ,

We need to look into why the most active countries that do not practice self isolation, while wearing face masks, have very lowest death rates compared to case numbers. I.e., Singapore, South Korea, Russia, Japan, etc...

ZWaqar Kahlon FFClementi4 hours ago ,

There is difference among people born and raised in different countries with different vaccinations given at birth and afterwards. There is also difference of many local diseases very common; like malaria and others in Asian courtiers, which are almost non-existent here in USA. It gives us some directions to fight Covid-19 employing mass spectrometry and many other tools.

Richard Wightwick4 hours ago ,

I am over 70 and last year in the UK I had a vaccine for pneumonia, which I understand is of one of the stages in the desease's cycle. Might it be possible that a pneumonia vaccine would provide some kind of immunity for Covid-19?

ZWaqar Kahlon Richard Wightwick3 hours ago ,

The vaccine for pneumonia may have a limited scope compared to Covid-19 attack on immune system, but studies of the blood samples looking for anti-bodies after vaccine for pneumonia may provide us further insight. The best practice would be to try staying away from Covid-19 exposure and try to boost our immune system.

[Apr 02, 2020] People with blood type A may be more vulnerable to coronavirus, China study finds

Apr 02, 2020 | hub.jhu.edu

Alfonso Eslava2 days ago ,

I would like to share some information I happen to find coming out from Chinese Social Media South China Morning Post: "People with blood type A may be more vulnerable to coronavirus, China study finds".
A claim from scientists from Chinese study at Zhognan University Hospital in Wuhan and Shenzhen city. They screen 2000 medical record of patients infected with the SARS CAVID19 to find a higher proportion of patients belonging to the Blood group A, as well as greater proportion of them suffering from more severe disease. As we know most scientific papers from China are written in Chinese language and their scientific perspective may not be as ours, we cannot confirm that is a reflecting a true fact. Nevertheless, it wouldn't be so difficult nor expensive to have a look into the matter. If it turns out to reflect a confirmed fact, it will change our perception about the susceptibility to this germ. We already know that there is a very wide spectrum of severity of symptoms in our population and in part that might be due to factors as those mentioned above. My only recommendation is please take it easy we do not want another problem as we did with toilet paper or Chloroquine.
Be safe, keep yourself at home.

[Apr 02, 2020] FAKE: Tito vodka kills coronavirus

Apr 02, 2020 | www.distractify.com

Publications like Good Housekeeping and USA Today are printing retractions and corrections after accidentally spreading information that vodka can be used to kill the coronavirus .

Per the CDC, hand sanitizer needs to contain at least 60% alcohol. Tito's Handmade Vodka is 40% alcohol, and therefore does not meet the current recommendation of the CDC. Please see attached for more information. pic.twitter.com/plYf54HPLn

-- TitosVodka (@TitosVodka) March 4, 2020

[Apr 02, 2020] The coronavirus and hot weather

Apr 02, 2020 | hub.jhu.edu

Carlos Alejandro Pérez3 days ago

You can certainly bet on that the virus can spread in hot seasons. In these days, in Argentina, we have temperatures about 35 Celsius (almost 100 Fahrenheit), and the virus still gained momentum in such environments. The strict social isolation has been proven to be our best option so far. In economics terms, and even in social mood, it seems to be a very high price to pay. But relaxing or terminating this forced quarantine may led us to the worst case scenario.

CARLOS ALBERTO RANGEL11 hours ago ,

Here in Brazil we have high temperatures right now. And the daily contagion rate is much lower than in countries or places where the climate is much colder. I believe that the virus will not spread as well in hot climates.

jehangir khan6 hours ago ,

why is the infectivity and mortality in indian subcontinent lower?
as they are poor countries and with minimum facility to do distancing....

MSUS2005 EricD.5 days ago ,

I'm currently in mid-Florida there it has been in the upper 80's to mid 90's every day for the last several weeks. The infection is increasing here as far as in Michigan. Also, it's hotter down towards Miami and the infection levels are even higher down there. I wouldn't put any faith and hot days killing it

BenSashko MSUS20053 days ago ,

because tens of thousands of infected new-yorkers escape from NYC to Florida

tg411 Dustin Sidley8 days ago ,

"those countries are poor and have no testing" - but what about their death rate then? As of right now, the ENTIRE CONTINENT of Africa has just a few dozen deaths TOTAL..

Extreme heat/cold are known to be formidable environments to most viruses. Odds are that this one is too, but only time will tell I guess.

Nadine O'Connor Dustin Sidley7 days ago ,

Australia is not poor and absolutely does have testing!!! We have over 3000 infected (that has been identified) and 13 deaths. Do not count on weather conditions offering some form of protection.

Jake Westen Nadine O'Connor4 days ago ,

Sydney is 21C / 69F and Melbourne is 18C / 64F. That isn't hot weather. That is winter weather here in Texas.

Laszlo Lebrun Jake Westena day ago ,

Temperature isn't the only parameter, air-conditioning and the related irritation of mucous membranes are favouring coughs and sneezing and by consequence the spread of viruses.

[Apr 01, 2020] Tian Junhua, as a leader in bat virus work in Wuhan lab is now at the center of controversy

According to Steven W. Mosher, a China specialist with the Population Research Institute, this research could be especially harmful to humans. "China claims that the deadly virus did not escape from its biolab," Mr. Mosher said. "Fine. Prove it by releasing the research records of the Wuhan lab."
Mar 30, 2020 | www.washingtontimes.com

Originally from China researchers isolated bat coronaviruses near Wuhan wild animal market - Washington Times

Chinese government researchers isolated more than 2,000 new viruses, including deadly bat coronaviruses, and carried out scientific work on them just three miles from a wild animal market identified as the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Several Chinese state media outlets in recent months touted the virus research and lionized in particular a key researcher in Wuhan , Tian Junhua , as a leader in bat virus work.

The coronavirus strain now infecting hundreds of thousands of people globally mutated from bats believed to have infected animals and people at a wild animal market in Wuhan . The exact origin of the virus, however, remains a mystery.


SEE ALSO: Chinese markets again selling bats -- likely source of deadly pandemic -- reporters say


Reports of the extensive Chinese research on bat viruses likely will fuel more calls for Beijing to make public what it knows about such work.

"This is one of the worst cover-ups in human history, and now the world is facing a global pandemic," Rep. Michael T. McCaul, Texas Republican and ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said last week. Mr. McCaul has said China should be held accountable for the pandemic.



A video posted online in December and funded by the Chinese government shows Mr. Tian inside caves in Hubei province taking samples from captured bats and storing them in vials.

"I am not a doctor, but I work to cure and save people," Mr. Tian says in the video. "I am not a soldier, but I work to safeguard an invisible national defense line."

Chinese officials have said the virus likely spread from wild animals to people at Wuhan 's Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, not far from the Wuhan Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC ), the national center for China 's bat virus research.

Wuhan is finally stirring back to life after a harsh crackdown on travel and street activity was imposed in late January. The city's bus, subway and train systems started to run again over the weekend. Shops downtown were operating with some restrictions Monday, although customers were scarce.

But British news accounts also reported over the weekend that some of the stalls at China 's so-called "wet" wild animal markets, as they reopen, have begun once again selling bats and scorpions and resumed questionable practices such as slaughtering small animals right at the site.

Chinese officials refused to provide samples of its coronavirus strains to U.S. researchers shortly after

[Apr 01, 2020] In Italy over 6K doctors and nurses were infected

Apr 01, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Peter AU1 , Apr 1 2020 12:27 utc | 215

Yandex translation.

"the Day after the day lengthens the list of doctors who died on the field for Covid-19. And the total up to 51.
Are 6.414 health care workers infected."
https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/03/27/news/coronavirus_situazione_italia-252433461/?ref=RHPPTP-BH-I252331136-C12-P2-S4.4-T1

[Apr 01, 2020] Almost no item is as scarce -- and as vital to addressing this medical emergency -- as the N95 respirator masks made by 3M, Honeywell, Medicom, and a smattering of other companies

Is not this is sign of government incompetence? They have two full month to increase production. and the results are disappointing.
Apr 01, 2020 | www.bloomberg.com

Andrew Rehder, manager of 3M Co. 's respirator mask factory in Aberdeen, S.D., got the call from headquarters on Tuesday, Jan. 21. He gathered about 20 managers and supervisors into a conference room, where they sat, unworried, less than 6 feet apart. Rehder told them that a new virus was spreading rapidly in China and that 3M was expecting demand for protective gear to jump.

The Aberdeen plant had already ramped up production of respirator masks in response to demand from first responders battling wildfires in Australia and contending with a volcano in the Philippines. Now, Rehder told his charges, Aberdeen would shift to "surge capacity." Idle machinery installed for precisely this purpose would be activated, and many of the plant's 650 employees would immediately start working overtime. "We knew it wouldn't be a two-week blip, it would be longer," Rehder says. "But I had no idea."

Featured in Bloomberg Businessweek , March 30, 2020. Subscribe now . Photo illustration: 731; Photographer: Jamie Chung for Bloomberg Businessweek

This is 3M's moment, one for which the staid, 118-year-old Minnesota manufacturing giant -- the maker of Post-its, Scotch tape, touchscreen displays, and scores of other products -- has been preparing for almost two decades. Coming out of the SARS epidemic of 2002-03, the company realized it wasn't fully equipped to handle unexpected explosions of demand in the event of a crisis, or what it calls an "X factor." It decided to build surge capacity into its respirator factories around the world.

Over the years, with X factors such as the Ebola panic and the H1N1 flu virus generating flash floods of demand, the company kept refining its emergency response. When the world started clamoring for respirator masks to help confront coronavirus, 3M was ready.

People everywhere are scrambling for ventilators, Covid-19 test kits, bleach, and toilet paper. But almost no item is as scarce -- and as vital to addressing this medical emergency -- as the N95 respirator masks made by 3M, Honeywell, Medicom, and a smattering of other companies. Without respirators, doctors, nurses, and other medical personnel are at increased risk of contracting the affliction they're treating.

China, where this coronavirus originated, also happens to produce half the world's respirators. As the outbreak spread , the Chinese government halted mask exports and demanded that all in-country manufacturers, including 3M, crank up production. Shortages swiftly developed as Covid-19 cases appeared in Asia, Europe, and the U.S., forcing health-care workers to reuse old respirators and cobble together ersatz masks from materials bought at craft stores. In America, states are bidding against one another for masks priced as much as 10 times the usual cost of 60ข to 80ข apiece.

3M can't save the day on its own, but it's promising a remarkably large contribution. The company has in two months doubled global production of N95 masks to about 100 million a month, and it's planning to invest in new equipment to push annual mask production to 2 billion within 12 months. On March 22, Chief Executive Officer Mike Roman said in a news release that 3M had sent 500,000 respirators to hard-hit Seattle and New York City, and that it was ramping up production of hand sanitizers and disinfectants as well. Two days later, Roman said 3M would work with Ford Motor Co. to produce powered air purifying respirators, waist-mounted devices that blow air into helmets that shield wearers. Honeywell is also increasing N95 production, saying it will hire at least 500 people to expand capacity at a facility in Rhode Island.

Although businesses globally have emptied out, more than half of 3M's 96,000 employees are still showing up for work in its factories and warehouses. "It's been amazing," says Rehder, who's in the Aberdeen plant seven days a week, usually walking the floor, which is now marked with yellow tape to keep workers from violating the imaginary 6-foot infection barrier. "People are very proud to work in a place that's making respirators, especially with the need that's out there now."

[Apr 01, 2020] We are in a "fog of war" situation, i.e., critical decisions MUST be made but there is insufficient information upon which to make these decisions

Apr 01, 2020 | www.unz.com

Jus' Sayin'... , says: Show Comment March 31, 2020 at 4:15 pm GMT

@Anon Agree! As I just wrote in an email to some friends:

I've argued for several weeks that we are in a "fog of war" situation, i.e., critical decisions MUST be made but there is insufficient information upon which to make these decisions. On the one hand, if estimates of SARS-COV-19's infectiousness and lethality are as great as some think then, without extreme public health` interventions, including some that take a wrecking ball to the economy and the Bill of Rights, we face death rates not seen since the 1918 Spanish Influenza Pandemic. On the other hand, if the estimates of SARS-COV-19's infectiousness and lethality are much too high or, even more frightening, there is no "herd immunity" and the pandemic recurs each year, then we may wind up destroying our economy and creating nation-destroying levels of social unrest, while ultimately not affecting the course of the current pandemic in any meaningful way. After stupid and ill-advised complacency during the early stages of the current pandemic, our ruling elite and their policy makers seem to have panicked, assumed the worst, and adopted the first option.

My personal feeling is that this was a serious mistake. Far less stringent public health measures would have been the best option, e.g., encouraging the wearing of face masks in public (which the CDC has evidently just begun doing after discouraging the practice for nearly two months), banning large gatherings, and quarantining those who are obviously ill. This would have moderated pandemic deaths while not wrecking the economy and generating social disorder. It's too late for that now. We've already shattered the economy ( http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/supplies-are-starting-to-get-really-tight-nationwide-as-food-distribution-systems-break-down ). Social disorder on a massive scale is almost certain to follow.

The saddest part of all this is that even if SARS-COV-19's infectiousness and lethality are as high as the more extreme estimates suggest, we might have been better off with a restrained public health policy. The results would have been ugly, something like the 1918 Pandemic with the medical system overwhelmed and bodies piling up in the streets. The political parties in charge would be damaged beyond repair as a result of their apparent malfeasance. But when the dust settled, the country would recover quickly. The economy would still be intact, or at least not much worse than before. In fact, a significant amount of economic and demographic deadwood and drags on the economy , e.g., unproductive pensioners like me, disabled persons, the "homeless", etc., might be effortlessly removed from this vale of tears, society and the economy. From a purely utilitarian standpoint this would be a net benefit to the country.

After disruptions like those I'm envisioning, as the inevitable result of current public health policies, the only way the ruling elite and establishment can retain control is with a catastrophic distraction, e.g., a national coup d'etat or phony revolution, or an international war of WW I proportions. I'm expecting that very bad things will follow in the wake of this pandemic and the ruling elites' responses.

[Apr 01, 2020] The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) -- China, 2020

Apr 01, 2020 | weekly.chinacdc.cn

The early days of the outbreak have been reminiscent of SARS and MERS, and indeed, the discovery that the causative agent was a closely-related, never-before-described coronavirus predicted potential for nosocomial transmission and so-called "super-spreader" events ( 8 ). Unfortunately, 2019-nCoV did indeed infect health workers in China via nosocomial transmission. Here we offer a first description of the 1,716 confirmed cases among health workers.

Overall, they also display a likely mixed outbreak pattern -- perhaps the data are characterized by a point source curve beginning in late December 2019, which was eclipsed by a higher magnitude continuous source curve beginning on January 20, 2020. To date, there is no evidence of a super-spreader event occurring in any of the Chinese health facilities serving COVID-19 patients. However, we do not know whether this is due to the nature of the virus itself or whether these events have been successfully prevented.

[Apr 01, 2020] Family infections are the most dangerious one

Apr 01, 2020 | www.unz.com

AnonFromBeijing , says: Show Comment March 30, 2020 at 8:20 am GMT

You misunderstood something about Chinese measures to fight this virus.
We did not just simply lock down cities and everybody stay home to wait for the good ending.
It's far from enough.
We check check and check.
Find out those infected, took them into hospitals. Find them as much as we can. DO NOT leave them goof around/stay home to infect the whole family.
Find out those who are close to the infected, took them into isolation to observe if they will catch the virus. Find them as much as we can.
Track those who were close to the infected, check out the asymptomatic one who is out of the radar and secretly give the virus to the infected. Isolate this asymptomatic person who may continue to spread the virus to others. Yes, you need to find out who infected whom, and how. You need to build the detective teams on infection. You find them out, learn from it, publish it, avoid it.
It's a mission impossible, but still, you do it, with enough endeavor, it's mission possible.
check, check, check track, track, track isolate, isolate, isolate
In the same time, you do all you capacity to guarantee the medic, the logistic, the supply, it's a whole system. Not simply lock down, not just stay at home.

China has more than 70% family cases because social cases are effectively avoided by lock down and stay at home, while those family cases at early stage in Wuhan especially can not be avoided since we don't have this system at the time. Things happened in Wuhan too fast!
You need to react fast! You need to do lot of things at the same time. You need to find them, all of them, really fast. Take them into hospital, into isolation, into observation, under your radar.

Lock down and stay at home works! But that's not all about it. That's just a start of it.
There are cases that people go out for grocery, without masks, get infected by another buyer, within seconds!

If you guys don't wear mask, don't follow stay at home and social distance strictly, whatever your government doing is in waste.
But if your government don't respond fast and find out all of them for treatment and isolations, still the same: this virus thing will just goes on and on and on and on and on

At the end of the day, you may reach herd immunity (if this virus is that friendly: once cured, never infected again, we are not sure about that since somebody already has two strains of this virus in the body at the same time, which suggest something quite different)
In that case, there will be herd immunity gap between you strong survival guys who passed the virus test and we the untested weaker ones who avoided the test by all means.

Who knows, you might win by lost the burden of the old the sick the weak the poor the idiot.
We may also win by guard our value and our people as an unity.
Win-Win

As for fundamental changes of life style and governing method. We didn't think much about it before as we sincerely believed this would be a short term thing. We believed in ourselves and expected everything back to normal in Apr. until you guys join this virus thing.

Now everything changed. Things become really complicated.

[Apr 01, 2020] Youtube to the rescue: DIY masks

The US government incompetence as for mask stockpiling is just staggering. Will go into textbooks about bureaucratic incompetence.
For a country with a trillion dollar military budget to have shorages of mask is really amazing feat.
See for example: DIY Fabric Tie Face Mask with Jenny Doan of Missouri or How to Sew a Face Mask with Filter Pocket or How To Make DIY Face Masks To Donate To Healthcare Workers, or HOW TO SEW A MEDICAL FACE
Apr 01, 2020 | www.unz.com

Republic , says: Show Comment March 31, 2020 at 5:56 pm GMT

@AKAHorace Many Youtube videos address this issue regarding the making of masks

[Apr 01, 2020] FFP2 and N95 masks must be recycled for the moment

Apr 01, 2020 | www.unz.com

Furthermore, I tried to communicate the importance of recycling FFP2 masks, without any success. It is a matter of life and death. These masks are considered for single use and staffs throw them away too quickly. This is not the place to be technical, but I have proposed four methods to recycle them and they must be implemented according to the sterilization equipment available in hospitals, information that I have still not been able to obtain. We must educate medical staff on how to extend the life of these masks and recycle them, today, the urgency is immense.

The army, firefighters and probably the police have gas masks, which should not be left in the barracks, they are even more effective than the FFP2. We do not care if it looks crazy to see doctors with gas masks, I prefer to see them stay alive and able to care for patients, and also it would prevent them from becoming vectors of spread themselves. How many gas masks, which are cleanable and reusable, are available?

FFP2 masks for the population, a simple solution for returning to work.

To finish with the masks, let us understand that what will get us out of confinement, lockdown, and will allow the population to resume almost normal work, is the massive production of FFP2 masks for the entire population, small (children) and adults (adults). The faster the necessary production tools are put in place, the faster Belgium can get back to work, it's really that simple.

During the minimum 4 weeks of lockdown, massive screening is needed, and the establishment of the task force is a step in the right direction. We cannot lift the lockdown until our ability to track down infected individuals has been greatly increased.

At Vo'Euganeo in Italy, all the confined residents (3,300) were tested a month ago. Result: out of 89 positive cases, there are only handful contaminations, reports La Voix du Nord. The approach I propose works when you can combine lockdown and massive screening.

Chinaman , says: Show Comment March 31, 2020 at 8:42 am GMT

It was true yesterday, it is true today, it is enough to see how Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore handled the crisis from the start, and how China and South Korea recovered.

CountLess life could have been saved if white people just didn't have an illogical aversion to masks.

Everyone wear masks in asia. Ironically, It is not the Chinese who is spreading it In Asia. The people who are spreading the disease where I live are the white people returning from overseas and refuse to wear masks. They should go back to wherever they come from.

these people should be physically assaulted for NOT wearing a mask in Asia like Asians are assaulted in the West for wearing one.

[Mar 31, 2020] Hospitals Firing Doctors Who Talk To The Press

Notable quotes:
"... Ming Lin, an emergency room physician in Washington state, lost his job last week after he spoke to a local media outlet about the lack of protective gear for staff at Puget Sound area hospitals. ..."
Mar 31, 2020 | www.zerohedge.com

US Health care systems have warned emergency room doctors and nurses that if they speak out about working conditions inside a hospital, they will be fired, reported Bloomberg .

Ming Lin, an emergency room physician in Washington state, lost his job last week after he spoke to a local media outlet about the lack of protective gear for staff at Puget Sound area hospitals.

Hospital staff at the NYU Langone Health system were recently warned that if they spoke to the media without authorization, they would be terminated.

"Hospitals are muzzling nurses and other health-care workers in an attempt to preserve their image," said Ruth Schubert, a spokeswoman for the Washington State Nurses Association. "It is outrageous."

With confirmed virus cases over 163,000 and 3,170 deaths , hospital systems across the country are seeing a massive influx of patients that is straining the system.

Doctors and nurses "must have the ability to tell the public what is really going on inside the facilities where they are caring for Covid-19 patients," Schubert said.

As we noted in January, a hospital doctor in Wuhan, China, the epicenter of COVID-19, tried to inform the world about a fast-spreading disease. However, he was quickly silenced by the Chinese government, and since, more than 800,000 people around the globe have been infected, with 39,000 deaths.

One reason that nurses and doctors must be informative about evolving conditions inside hospitals is that public donations of medical equipment or gear could help out a local facility.

"It is good and appropriate for health-care workers to be able to express their own fears and concerns, especially when expressing that might get them better protection," said Glenn Cohen, faculty director of Harvard Law School's bioethics center. Hospitals are likely trying to limit reputational damage because "when health-care workers say they are not being protected, the public gets very upset at the hospital system."

NYU Langone Health employees received notification last week that if they spoke with media, they would be "subject to disciplinary action, including termination."

New York's Montefiore Health System requires doctors and nurses to get permission from superiors before speaking to the media.

"Associates are not authorized to interact with reporters or speak on behalf of the institution in any capacity, without pre-approval," according to the policy, which was seen by Bloomberg News.

Lauri Mazurkiewicz, a Chicago nurse at Northwestern Memorial Hospital, was fired after she told the hospital staff to wear more protective equipment:

"A lot of hospitals are lying to their workers and saying that simple masks are sufficient and nurses are getting sick and they are dying," Mazurkiewicz said.

Doctors and nurses have also tweeted their frustrations with hospital systems – this has also led to some systems tightening the noose on what employees can and cannot say on social media:

My babies are too young to read this now. And they'd barely recognize me in my gear. But if they lose me to COVID I want them to know Mommy tried really hard to do her job. #GetMePPE #NYC pic.twitter.com/OMew5G7mjK

-- Cornelia Griggs (@CorneliaLG) March 29, 2020

Nisha Mehta, a radiologist from Charlotte, North Carolina, runs several Facebook groups for physicians. She says members in her groups have reached out to her and want their stories told about working conditions:

"I'm hearing widespread stories from physicians across the country and they are all saying: 'We have these stories that we think are important to get out, but we are being told by our hospital systems that we are not allowed to speak to the press, and if we do so there will be extreme consequences," Mehta said.

America's hospital system could be cracking , like what happened in China and Italy. If everything were fine, doctors and nurses wouldn't be flooding media outlets and social media platforms, warning the public about hospital conditions and or about how deadly the virus is.

[Mar 30, 2020] Austria mandates face masks for shoppers by Latika Bourke

Mar 30, 2020 | smh.com.au

Austria says anyone shopping will have to wear face masks, bringing it in line with the neighbouring Czech Republic which, on March 18, ordered face masks be worn in public.

Masks will be supplied to supermarket retail chains which will distribute them to shoppers as they enter stores.

The government cautioned that the masks do not protect wearers but are meant to prevent them from spreading infectious cough droplets.

[Mar 30, 2020] If you get COVID-19 infection in the shop, office or transport, you probably will be sick two weeks, but if you get if from your wife - probably four, and mother-in-law -- six

Highly recommended!
Jokes aside, infection on family settings might lead to more severe outcomes, as virus load is higher.
Mar 30, 2020 | time.com

In this sense, COVID-19 behaves a lot like seasonal flu. Common rooms often mean common pathogens and higher dose of virus then from strangers. There are some indications that the doze of virus that you get affects the severity of the disease.

Families are great places for socialization and provide a means to stay active and engaged, but can serve as pathogenic petri dishes

Based on current research, it takes about 2 weeks between the onset of symptoms to the clinical recovery of patients with a mild form of the disease

[Mar 30, 2020] Medical workers do need help

Mar 30, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Circe , Mar 29 2020 20:03 utc | 46

So there are a lot of wacky theories out there. Here's mine and warning: I'm pissed at what I'm witnessing.

1. The way health industry workers including maintenance support personnel are carrying the load on the front lines of this pandemic is UNSUSTAINABLE and inhumane both for staff and patients. This story must be EXPOSED in every global hot spot.

2. This pandemic is a WAR, so let's attack it and behave like we are in the midst of a World War.

3. All gloved hands must be on deck for this. Healthcare workers should not be burdened and risking everything in the manner that we are starting to become aware of now in the West. Why should they be subjected to such stress and burden and all the risk while millions of ABLE-BODIED PEOPLE languish at home collecting a check for doing nothing. Where is the government on balancing this chaotic, unjust situation?

4. There are many, many service jobs associated with healthcare and needs brought out by this pandemic that don't involve close contact. The need is great.

5. Governments think the military can help in this crisis? Use it! Better to use them for healing than killing.

6. Need more help? Then recruit college and university students without underlying health conditions between the ages of 17 to 35. Hell, recruit from all healthy, able people under 50 collecting UI.

7. No one should be languishing at home collecting free money while everyone working in the healthcare service industry, and senior residences suffer 24/7 with crazy shifts getting sick!

I know what I'm bitching about. Both my parents were afflicted with cancer a few years apart. I practically lived my life in the hospital and witnessed need wherever I turned in normal times and helped in whatever way I could through the entire ordeal. There is an aging population crisis happening around us and everyone's acting like this is la-la land and who cares!

8. This pandemic is emphasizing deficiencies everywhere in the system, especially moral deficiencies.

9. This pandemic is war, and many are needed on deck to end it! If able bodies want a free ride, to collect a check and languish while others suffer...damn it...draft them or cut off the funds!

10. It's time to go above and beyond the clapping, already! Everyone should be shouldering the need wherever they can.

It's time to organize and share in the work and responsibility involved.

[Mar 30, 2020] Molecular test labs do not grow on trees nor are they conductive to mass large scale testing

Mar 30, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

dltravers , Mar 29 2020 20:20 utc | 48

Molecular test labs do not grow on trees nor are they conductive to mass large scale testing...

Why It Takes So Long To Get Most COVID-19 Test Results

[Mar 29, 2020] Medical Expert Who Corrects Trump Is Now a Target of the Far Right

Money quote " There is this sense that experts are untrustworthy, and have agendas that aren't aligned with the people"
That was always true about neoliberal economists. So it might well be true about mecuacl bureaucrats like Fauci. Did he disclose his stock holdingd and financial interests? Is he a part of neoliberal "medical-industrial complex" which wants to rake profits at the expense of people health?
His email to Hillary suggest that he is medical professional but a politician.
Actually any top medical honcho in Washing is compromised as they did nothing to stop "balance billing" fraud and too over of ambulance business by private equity sharks.
Notable quotes:
"... There is this sense that experts are untrustworthy, and have agendas that aren't aligned with the people ..."
"... In the email, Dr. Fauci praised Mrs. Clinton for her stamina during the 2013 Benghazi hearings. The American Thinker falsely claimed that the email was evidence that he was part of a secret group who opposed Mr. Trump. ..."
Mar 29, 2020 | www.nytimes.com

Adding that Dr. Fauci is bearing the brunt of the attacks, Mr. Bergstrom said: " There is this sense that experts are untrustworthy, and have agendas that aren't aligned with the people . It's very concerning because the experts in this are being discounted out of hand."

... ... ...

Anti-Fauci posts spiked, according to Zignal Labs. Much of the increase was prompted by a March 21 article in The American Thinker, a conservative blog, which published the seven-year-old email that Dr. Fauci had written to an aide of Mrs. Clinton.

In the email, Dr. Fauci praised Mrs. Clinton for her stamina during the 2013 Benghazi hearings. The American Thinker falsely claimed that the email was evidence that he was part of a secret group who opposed Mr. Trump.

... ... ...

In an interview, Mr. Fitton said, "Dr. Fauci is doing a great job." He added that Dr. Fauci "wrote very political statements to Hillary Clinton that were odd for an appointee of his nature to send."

...One anti-Fauci tweet last Sunday read: "Dr. Fauci is in love w/ crooked @HillaryClinton. More reasons not to trust him."

[Mar 28, 2020] It has been suggested that a profitable class of antihypertensives (ACE inhibitors) is linked with worse COVID19 outcomes.

Mar 28, 2020 | www.unz.com

gfhÄndel , says: Show Comment March 26, 2020 at 7:27 pm GMT

To clarify: chloroquine and like agents are antimalarials which also have immunosuppressive properties. They are used in COVID19 to dampen the acute respiratory distress syndrome [ARDS], the pathologic exaggerated immune response which is the cause of most COVID19 fatalities.
It is not without significant side effects (eg retinopathy).
Nevertheless, any suspicions about big pharma's motives in this context are warranted.
It has been suggested that a profitable class of antihypertensives (ACE inhibitors) is linked with worse COVID19 outcomes.

[Mar 28, 2020] What I have found when yesterday I ventured into Wal-Mart to shop with the other deplorable people that the elite child molesters, sexual perverts, and sociopaths out in Hollyweird, NYC and Washington like to look down on

Notable quotes:
"... Speaking of "suited and booted", shouldn't these people be wearing one of those full body suits and booties over their shoes as well? ..."
Mar 25, 2020 | www.unz.com

Trinity , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 3:13 pm GMT

Yesterday I ventured into Wal-Mart to shop with the other local deplorable people that the elite child molesters, sexual perverts, and sociopaths out in Hollyweird, NYC and Washington like to look down on.

Wasn't that crowded and I probably noticed about 10 customers "suited and booted" wearing various masks of different shapes and styles and latex gloves.

Speaking of "suited and booted", shouldn't these people be wearing one of those full body suits and booties over their shoes as well?

[Mar 28, 2020] Meet The 'Covidiot' A Dense Creature That Ignores Simple Instructions, Endangers Others

Mar 24, 2020 | www.zerohedge.com
...On Saturday, a new term caught the internet by storm, that is, 'Covidiot' – and first defined on Urban Dictionary , with the top definition:

"Someone who ignores the warnings regarding public health or safety. A person who hoards goods, denying them from their neighbors."

[Mar 28, 2020] Beware padding unproven advertising of Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquione as cures for COVID-19 from Esxobar and similar unqualified folk

Mar 28, 2020 | www.unz.com

KA , says: Show Comment March 27, 2020 at 3:03 pm GMT

Hydroxyxhloroquine is antimalarial,works on the DNA , and accumulates in white blood cells . Corona virus is RNA. Possible other mechanism includes suppression of T lymphocytes , decreased white blood cell migration to the injured area ,stabilization of lysosomal enzymes which means the enzymes that can attack pathogen and also human normal cells are being prevented from release from inside the immune cells and suppression of DNA and RNA synthesis.

I am not aware that has ever been to be effective against any virus in the past. It doesn't work on the Angiotensin receptor or signal transduction down stream .

Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquione are used for Rheumatoid arthritis but they don't alter the bone damages They are not very effective DMARDs ( disease modifying anti rheumatic drugs ) .It is also used against Graft versus Host rejection . Not effective enough.

Any antiviral medicine has to work on one of these sites or on combination of these sites- attachment of virus to cells, f penetration ( nucleus) , uncoating, protien synthesis , nucleic acid synthesis, packaging , and assembly of new virus , then the last part -viral release from cell to attack new cells. Hydroxychloroquine is not known to attack any of these processes .

Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine are known to work differently in rheumatoid and graft vs host disease or in some patients with SLE.

I am not sure if these 2 can be considered as an orphan drug and approved by FDA

I am not sure how French jumped to the idea that this medication would work ( usually a possible mechanism of action or anecdotal data have to be furnished before trying or have two have animal data )

So let's not celebrate French microbiologist or IHU and jump to some theories on the behaviors of French ministers or pharmaceuticals.

JT , says: Website Show Comment March 26, 2020 at 10:55 pm GMT
Since March 17th the pin on my twitter profile promotes the preventive use of chloroquine to treat the Novel Coronovirus. I've been following the debate about this anti-malarial (polio and yellow fever) drug closely. I like Escobar's article, but there are several problems with it, that even I, as a proponent of chloroquine cannot ignore.

First, the claim that Agnes Buzyn (mispelled twice in the article as "Buzy"), classified the drug as a poison, thus requiring prescription.

this is false. Chloroquine, in its market French form known as Nivaquine, was never over the counter. Never. In fact very few Western countries ever sold it over the counter. In most US states, it was prescription based. It is lethal when used inappropriately.

Second, with all due respect to Dr. Raoult, he is absolutely wrong about viral load in terminal stages of Covid-19. Corona virus is anything but low or nearly absent. In fact, its viral load is extremely high and a good measure of patient outcome at admission, and no amount of antiviral treatment can reduce it on its own at this point. Raoult was either trying to say that corona is not the cause of mortality, which is technically true, or like 99% of doctors fighting Corona, has no grasp of what the virus actually does.

The gist of the Escobar article is problematic. Nothing concrete about how Sanofi or Big Pharma is planning on cashing in by delaying chloroquine production. Last week Sanofi donated 300,000 "dosses" of chloroquine to the United States. The drug has been around for 60 years and is listed by the WHO as a required drug in all medical systems with required possibilities of local production. The criteria of which are known only to experts.

As for the theory that chloroquine supplies have been pilfered my French sources told me supplies had been seized. Macron may be pursuing a policy of herd immunity, but doesn't have the political luxury of being public about it, and a little less literalism is a helpful corrective for wild speculation. Herd immunity strategies cannot be pursued openly, being political (reelection) liabilities.

Far far more important to the coronovirus debate is how one is supposed to cure with vaccines, if the jury is still out on acquired immunity. One cannot work without the other, suggesting that the MSM acceptance of possible vaccine treatment ipso facto means acquired immunity is a given, but that's not the way the MSM and governments are presenting this, suggesting that either vaccines cannot possibly work, or that immunity is being aquired as we speak, while the facade of a fight is kept up.

utu , says: Show Comment March 27, 2020 at 4:24 am GMT
@The Obscurantist Coronavirus : Agnès Buzyn a-t-elle interdit la vente libre de chloroquine en pleine épidémie
https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2020/03/25/agnes-buzyn-a-t-elle-interdit-la-vente-libre-de-chloroquine-en-pleine-epidemie-de-covid-19_6034372_4355770.html

Since this decree, the hydroxychloroquine molecule marketed under the name of Plaquenil is therefore no longer available over the counter. A prescription from a doctor is now mandatory. But this new classification, which came into effect in January, contrary to what some conspiratorial publications suggest, predates the appearance of the new coronavirus. Its cousin, chloroquine, appears on this list "in injectable and oral form", since a decree taken in 1999.

As LCI explains, the National Health Security Agency (ANSES) had been asked for an opinion on a proposal for an order to include hydroxychloroquine in List II of poisonous substances in October 2019, "in order to ensure appropriate patient care ". Two months before the appearance of the new coronavirus in China.
ANSES had given the green light on November 12, 2019. It is therefore false and dishonest to claim that the former Minister of Health, Ms. Buzyn, would have made this decision herself during the Covid-19 epidemic.

CCZ , says: Show Comment March 27, 2020 at 2:37 pm GMT
@onebornfree The Quinism Foundation is a nonprofit charitable organization established to support education and research on chronic quinoline encephalopathy and other medical conditions caused by poisoning, or intoxication, by mefloquine, tafenoquine, chloroquine, and related quinoline drugs.

Executive Director Dr. Remington Dr. Nevin noted his concern that members of the public may even attempt to obtain therapeutic quantities of quinine through questionable channels. "Tonic water, whose bitter taste is produced by the addition of quinine or related naturally-occurring quinolines, is limited by U.S. Food and Drug Administration regulations to 83 mg per liter of quinine and related cinchona alkaloids," said Dr. Nevin. "However, drinking several bottles of tonic water will result in consuming pharmaceutical quantities, and therefore potentially harmful, amounts of these drugs", said Dr. Nevin. "Tonic water is a prescription medication masquerading as a cocktail mixer."

oneworld , says: Show Comment March 27, 2020 at 11:44 am GMT
A single, non-randomized observational trial is close to the bottom of the list in terms of meaningful medical research, down there with anecdotal reports, particularly in a novel viral disease with highly variable clinical manifestations and outcomes.

There are also significant potential cardiac risks caused by the Q-T lengthening on one's EKG caused by both azithromycin and chloroquine. Don't grasp at straws.

Turk 152 , says: Show Comment March 27, 2020 at 9:05 pm GMT
@KA You seem quite a knowledge so I hope to obtain your insights, I am not medical.

I heard that the likelihood of ARDS (cytokine storm?) can be detected by a Serum Ferritin test. If it levels are high, the patient should be given Anakinra, the rheumatoid arthritis medication, which will prevent ARDS. Neither the test, nor the treatment are being given because the average Doc who does not specialize in this field, does not know to test for this.

I understand that Hydroxychloroquin will reduce virulent symptoms in high risk patients but should be given cautiously.

Toubib Thawr , says: Show Comment March 27, 2020 at 10:06 pm GMT
KA,
I am commenting here first time but have been reading the site for years.
I have two decades of biotech research experience.
I just finished a literature survey about effects of these active pharmaceutical ingredients or APIs (chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine, hydroxychloroquine phosphate).
The APIs have been in human application for very long time and their side effect profile might be broad but it is not widespread. The most serious problems arise from eventual eye degenerative effects but those are very-very rare.
These APIs do act on several steps of what you mentioned, starting with receptor binding interference (ACE2 glycosylation changes), viral entry (impairment of endosome formation), then viral DNA offloading (interference with virus-containing endosomes fusing with lysosomes), through viral "work" (impairment of protein synthesis and virion assembly through stopping of Golgi- and endoplasmatic reticular budding and traffic).
The most interesting part of their actions might however be the inhibition of the viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase enzyme. This is done through increasing Zn++ concentration in the cytoplasm because all of these APIs are ionophores and bring Zn++ ions into the cytosol through the lipid membrane. High Zn++ "levels" inside the cell block the "xerox machine"of the viral RNA. So indeed these have at least theoretical effects and in vitro proof is abundant.

On the contrary, if one looks at the now not too worthwile treatment compilation from Alipay and Zhezhiang University the use of different antiviral drugs is quite dangerous to the liver. Many patients on anti-retrovirals developed liver problems. I think the Shanghai Protocol is much more adequate but to each his own.

With regards to the origins of the virus someone earlier wrote about haplotypes. There are 58 haplotypes (called as such in peer-reviewed publications) and 5 haplogroups of the virus in two clades (L and S). According to a non peer-reviewed publication at ChinaXiv, 5 haplogroups have only been reported from the US so far. Mainland Chinese enjoyed the society of only 4 haplogroups while the fifth could be found in Taiwan.

Felix Keverich , says: Show Comment March 27, 2020 at 10:44 pm GMT
For your information, Russia will now be using chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine for treatment of COVID-19 in moderate to severe cases.

https://static-3.rosminzdrav.ru/system/attachments/attaches/000/049/877/original/COVID19

[Mar 28, 2020] Handbook on COVI-19 treatment put out by Chinese doctors.

Mar 28, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Peter AU1 , Mar 27 2020 21:35 utc | 47

Handbook put out by Chinese doctors.
alibabacloud.com/universal-service/pdf_reader

[Mar 28, 2020] Awareness of the risk of chloroquine phosphate causing acute poisoning or even death should be strengthened

Mar 28, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Likklemore , Mar 27 2020 21:18 utc | 44

@ mpn 8

Here is one published Abstract, specific to COVID-19 warns of the toxicity.

Department of Forensic Medicine, Tongji Medical College, Huanzhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China. LINK

The Trial of Chloroquine in the Treatment of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and Its Research Progress in Forensic Toxicology.

[.]Since December 2019, COVID-19 (corona virus disease 2019) outbreaks caused by SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) has occurred in China and many countries around the world. Due to the lack of drugs against COVID-19, the disease spreads rapidly and the mortality rate is relatively high. Therefore, specific drugs against SARS-CoV-2 need to be quickly screened. The antimalarial drug Chloroquine phosphate which has already been approved is confirmed to have an anti-SARS-CoV-2 effect and has been included in diagnostic and therapeutic guidelines. However, awareness of the risk of chloroquine phosphate causing acute poisoning or even death should be strengthened. The dosage used according to current clinical recommended dosage and course of treatment are larger than that of previous treatment of malaria. Many provinces have required close clinical monitoring of adverse reactions. This paper reviews the pharmacological effects, poisoning;[.]

Peter AU1 , Mar 27 2020 22:02 utc | 53

This is the antiviral treatment recommended in the hand I linked above.
Antiviral Treatment
At FAHZU, lopinavir/ritonavir (2 capsules, po q12h) combined with arbidol (200 mg po q12h) were applied as the basic regimen. From the treatment experience of 49 patients in our hospital, the average time to achieve negative viral nucleic acid test for the first time was 12 days (95% CI: 8-15 days). The duration of negative nucleic acid test result (negative for more than 2 times consecutively with interval ≥ 24h) was 13.5 days (95% CI: 9.5 - 17.5 days).If the basic regimen is not effective, chloroquine phosphate can be used on adults between 18-65 years old (weight ≥ 50 kg: 500 mg bid; weight ≤50 kg: 500 mg bid for first two days, 500 mg qd for following five days).Interferon nebulization is recommended in Protocols for Diagnosis and Treatment of COVID-19. We recommend that it should be performed in negative-pressure wards rather than general wards due to the possibility of aerosol transmission.Darunavir/cobicistat has some degree of antiviral activity in viral suppression test in vitro, based on the treatment experience of AIDS patients, and the adverse events are relatively mild. For patients who are intolerant to lopinavir/ritonavir, darunavir/ cobici-stat (1 tablet qd) or favipiravir (starting dose of 1600 mg followed by 600 mg tid) is an alternative option after the ethical review. Simultaneous use of three or more antiviral drugs is not recommended.

Course of Treatment
The treatment course of chloroquine phosphate should be no more than 7 days. The treatment course of other regimens has not been determined and are usually around 2 weeks. Antiviral drugs should be stopped if nucleic acid test results from sputum specimens remain negative for more than 3 times

[Mar 28, 2020] Neoliberalism and medicine

Mar 28, 2020 | www.unz.com

JackOH , says: Show Comment March 27, 2020 at 12:06 pm GMT

Pepe, thanks.

As I've seen it, America's medical establishment enjoys extraordinary powers of initiative and veto in its engagement with the public, and much of that originates in the asymmetric doctor-patient relationship, the bad consequences of which were noticed by Hippocrates 2500 years ago when he tried calling physicians to their better instincts with his oath.

Good health is indeed a very important factor in Big Medicine's public engagement. So, too, revenues and profits, autonomy of practice, fee for service, overwhelming influence and downright control of the distribution of medicine for its own purposes, etc. Will elements of Big Medicine sacrifice good health for those other factors?

Yes. But you have to look at discrete instances to see how Big Medicine's players are tempted to go outright criminal. See, for example, the oxycodone killings.

I can't speak to the specifics of your article, Pepe, but it sure as hell meets some minimum threshold of plausibility to warrant further investigation in my opinion. Thanks again.

[Mar 28, 2020] The best book on big pharma criminality

Mar 28, 2020 | www.unz.com

tomo , says: Show Comment March 27, 2020 at 12:44 pm GMT

@Mustapha Mond this is the best book on big pharma criminality I have ever seen (written by an English doctor who writes for the Guardian )
You will not believe what's 'legal' for them to do in their 'research'
It's beyond criminal – but they obviously got their politicians/friends to change laws to allow what they are doing to proceed – it's really almost unbelievable
and it seems to be even worse in Europe than in the US (another thing I initially found hard to believe)

https://read.amazon.com/kp/card?preview=inline&linkCode=kpd&ref_=k4w_oembed_h8hKOfsbUkiUQn&asin=B008RLTUUA&tag=kpembed-20

[Mar 27, 2020] Not Just China U.S. Reliance on Foreign Medical Supplies is Staggering by Alan Tonelson

Highly recommended!
Notable quotes:
"... Put together, they reveal how big a share of the American markets for drugs, medical devices, and protective gear is controlled by goods made overseas. The big takeaway is that the nation could be in big enough trouble if supply disruptions were to occur in normal times (say, due to natural disasters in manufacturing centers abroad). During a high-mortality pandemic like the CCP Virus, these levels of foreign dependency are high enough to guarantee significant numbers of needless deaths. ..."
"... And in fact, the import penetration trends for these products exemplify the nation's health care security weaknesses. In 2002 -- a good baseline, since that's the first year China was a member of the World Trade Organization -- imports overall accounted for 16.7 percent of all surgical appliances and supplies used in the United States (measured by value, not numbers of masks or pairs of gloves). During the first full year of the Great Recession, 2008, this share totaled 28.08 percent. ..."
"... Keeping this qualification in mind, overall, 32.41 percent of surgical appliances and supplies were imported from other countries by 2011, according to these figures. In 2016, that number reached 41.81 percent of a $33.71 billion U.S. market. It may well be higher these days, as between then and last year, U.S. overseas purchases jumped by more than 29 percent. (Interestingly, in light of domestic shortages, U.S. exports in appliances and supplies actually rose by more than 13 percent during this period!) ..."
"... Ventilators, sadly, have been in the news, too; they and related products like oxygen tents and bronchoscopes and inhalators and suction equipment are found in a big goods category called surgical and medical instruments. In 2002, imports from all corners of the world represented 22.04 percent of American consumption. By 2016, this figure stood at 35.91 percent of a $37.5 billion national market, and over the next three years, imports grew nearly 31 percent. (Exports expanded at a relatively slow 11.84 percent.) ..."
"... exclusive U.S. reliance on China for the chemical ingredients of numerous medicines has now become a major federal government concern. ..."
"... The main foreign suppliers to the American pharmaceuticals market as of last year look encouragingly diversified and encouragingly friendly. For example, Ireland was number one, with 22.15 percent of such shipments, followed by Switzerland with 14.05 percent. But third and fourth, with 8.87 percent and 8.39 percent of imports, were Germany and India, respectively, both of which have limited or embargoed their medical exports this year. And number five, at 7.38 percent, was Italy -- whose current CCP Virus devastation could easily bring about export restrictions. ..."
"... Last year, America's leading foreign supplier of surgical and medical instruments (the ventilators category) was Mexico, which sold U.S. customers 28.58 percent of the $17.62 billion of total imports. But export-curber Germany was number three, at 9.43 percent, and China was sixth, at 6.93 percent. ..."
"... Purely domestic policy steps, like mandating more stockpiling or new recycling and re-use strategies, undoubtedly can add to national medical products supplies. But even these general import penetration figures, along with the shortage reports that keep pouring in, make clear that enduring national health care security can't be restored without a major ramping up of domestic output. And since export-heavy economies like China's and Germany's will undoubtedly work overtime to keep their American health care customers -- including with all manner of predatory economic practices -- it's similarly clear that big, lasting U.S. departures from standard free trade policies will be unavoidable. ..."
Mar 27, 2020 | www.theamericanconservative.com

Not Just China: U.S. Reliance on Foreign Medical Supplies is Staggering

The government's own numbers tell a frightening tale of how this happened, and when.

Virus pandemic having exposed scary domestic shortages of critical medical goods ranging from safety masks to ventilators, along with potential shortages of pharmaceuticals, political leaders across the spectrum are finally regretting having allowed so much output of these products to migrate offshore.

China's role in global supply chains has understandably sparked much of the alarm, since its government has all but threatened to withhold supplies of medicines whenever it wishes. But all told, at least 38 countries (including the 27-member European Union) have curbed exports of anti-pandemic products at some point since the CCP Virus began dominating headlines.

So potential foreign chokeholds in the nation's health care-related supply chains appear global in scope. The federal government's best data make clear just how widespread the problem has become, and how steadily it's been growing.

The figures come from the government's statistics on industry-by-industry manufacturing output and on exports and imports. (The output data can be accessed through databases created by the Census Bureau for its Annual Survey of Manufactures that are located at this link . The trade numbers can be retrieved at an interactive database maintained by the U.S. International Trade Commission that's located at this link .)

Put together, they reveal how big a share of the American markets for drugs, medical devices, and protective gear is controlled by goods made overseas. The big takeaway is that the nation could be in big enough trouble if supply disruptions were to occur in normal times (say, due to natural disasters in manufacturing centers abroad). During a high-mortality pandemic like the CCP Virus, these levels of foreign dependency are high enough to guarantee significant numbers of needless deaths.

These statistics aren't problem-free. Principally, because the manufacturing output figures are so granular, and therefore take so long to compile, import penetration rates for these (and other manufactures) can be calculated only through 2016. Yet the more timely import numbers can provide a reasonable indication of whether vulnerabilities are worsening or shrinking. At the same time, the government's main trade data aren't nearly as detailed as the production numbers. As a result, it's not possible to know the percentage of, say, safety masks used in the United States that are produced abroad. But it's easy to come up with this number for the category in which masks (and other protective gear) are grouped -- surgical appliances and supplies.

And in fact, the import penetration trends for these products exemplify the nation's health care security weaknesses. In 2002 -- a good baseline, since that's the first year China was a member of the World Trade Organization -- imports overall accounted for 16.7 percent of all surgical appliances and supplies used in the United States (measured by value, not numbers of masks or pairs of gloves). During the first full year of the Great Recession, 2008, this share totaled 28.08 percent.

Notably, these imports from China were a tiny 1.5 percent in 2002, and had actually dropped to 0.49 percent by 2008. By 2016, they accounted for a seemingly modest 6.54 percent of American consumption. But here's where another weakness in the data emerges: they say nothing about the origin of the materials, parts, and components of the final goods.

Keeping this qualification in mind, overall, 32.41 percent of surgical appliances and supplies were imported from other countries by 2011, according to these figures. In 2016, that number reached 41.81 percent of a $33.71 billion U.S. market. It may well be higher these days, as between then and last year, U.S. overseas purchases jumped by more than 29 percent. (Interestingly, in light of domestic shortages, U.S. exports in appliances and supplies actually rose by more than 13 percent during this period!)

Ventilators, sadly, have been in the news, too; they and related products like oxygen tents and bronchoscopes and inhalators and suction equipment are found in a big goods category called surgical and medical instruments. In 2002, imports from all corners of the world represented 22.04 percent of American consumption. By 2016, this figure stood at 35.91 percent of a $37.5 billion national market, and over the next three years, imports grew nearly 31 percent. (Exports expanded at a relatively slow 11.84 percent.)

Again, the China figures are small beans -- the import penetration rate for 2016 was a mere 2.35 percent. But these products often contain lots of electronics parts, and half the world's printed circuit boards, for example, are made in the People's Republic. In other words, lots of existing global surge capacity throughout the sector is ultimately controlled by Beijing.

Thanks to the work of researchers like the Hastings Center's Rosemary Gibson and independent journalist Katherine Eban, heavy and sometimes exclusive U.S. reliance on China for the chemical ingredients of numerous medicines has now become a major federal government concern. Indeed, the Food and Drug Administration is keeping an especially close eye on the availability of no fewer than 20 pharmaceutical products that use Chinese raw materials. (Unfortunately, the FDA won't say what they are, which calls for some Freedom of Information Act requests, pronto.)

But the import penetration figures make clear that supply disruptions could also originate elsewhere. Between 2002 and 2016, drugs produced overseas more than doubled their share of America's consumption (which stood at nearly $200 billion three years ago), from 17.23 percent to 38.51 percent. As of 2019, moreover, U.S. drugs imports were 20.34 percent higher than in 2016.

The main foreign suppliers to the American pharmaceuticals market as of last year look encouragingly diversified and encouragingly friendly. For example, Ireland was number one, with 22.15 percent of such shipments, followed by Switzerland with 14.05 percent. But third and fourth, with 8.87 percent and 8.39 percent of imports, were Germany and India, respectively, both of which have limited or embargoed their medical exports this year. And number five, at 7.38 percent, was Italy -- whose current CCP Virus devastation could easily bring about export restrictions.

Nor is this pattern restricted to pharmaceuticals. Last year, America's leading foreign supplier of surgical and medical instruments (the ventilators category) was Mexico, which sold U.S. customers 28.58 percent of the $17.62 billion of total imports. But export-curber Germany was number three, at 9.43 percent, and China was sixth, at 6.93 percent.

For surgical appliances and supplies (the masks and protective gear category), Ireland topped the 2019 foreign supplier list, selling the United States 24.09 percent of its $18.21 billion of total imports. But China was second, at 15.29 percent, and in third place, at 9.68 percent, stood Malaysia, which banned mask exports on March 20.

Purely domestic policy steps, like mandating more stockpiling or new recycling and re-use strategies, undoubtedly can add to national medical products supplies. But even these general import penetration figures, along with the shortage reports that keep pouring in, make clear that enduring national health care security can't be restored without a major ramping up of domestic output. And since export-heavy economies like China's and Germany's will undoubtedly work overtime to keep their American health care customers -- including with all manner of predatory economic practices -- it's similarly clear that big, lasting U.S. departures from standard free trade policies will be unavoidable.

Alan Tonelson is the founder of RealityChek, a public policy blog focusing on economics and national security, and the author of The Race to the Bottom .

[Mar 27, 2020] There are shortages of masks and gloves for the frontline medical staff

Mar 27, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Likklemore , Mar 26 2020 18:54 utc | 2

there are shortages of masks and gloves for the frontline so joe and jane may not be allowed. Governments are partnering with manufacturing companies. How bad is it?

In the Inbox: As a result of these posts on social media -
Hospitals Muzzle Doctors and Nurses on PPE, COVID-19 Cases

"Physicians are being warned not to speak or post publicly about their COVID-19 experiences, including PPE shortages, case specifics, and the percentage of full hospital beds,[.]

and who shall live and who shall die...

Hospitals across U.S. consider universal do-not-resuscitate orders for coronavirus patients

Hospitals on the front lines of the pandemic are engaged in a heated private debate over a calculation few have encountered in their lifetimes - how to weigh the "save at all costs" approach to resuscitating a dying patient against the real danger of exposing doctors and nurses to the contagion of coronavirus.

The conversations are driven by the realization that the risk to staff amid dwindling stores of protective equipment - such as masks, gowns and gloves - may be too great to justify the conventional response when a patient "codes," and their heart or breathing stops.

Northwestern Memorial Hospital in Chicago has been discussing a universal do-not-resuscitate policy for infected patients, regardless of the wishes of the patient or their family members - a wrenching decision to prioritize the lives of the many over the one.[.]

Canada and U.S. were in discussions?
U.S. considers putting troops at Canadian border.

Really? How does one divide the library?
Canada says unnecessary

[Mar 27, 2020] High quality Microfilter bags for vacuum cleaners as apoor man mask

Mar 27, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

aleksandar , Mar 26 2020 20:00 utc | 26

@uncle tungsten
High quality Microfilter bags for vacuum cleaners are ways better
And you can wash them
Take care

[Mar 27, 2020] The masks are useful even if they aren't 100% useful in blocking water droplets, insofar as wearing a mask makes it much less likely that you will touch your mouth with your hands or stick your finger in your nose.

Mar 27, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Yeah, Right , Mar 26 2020 21:31 utc | 57

The masks are useful even if they aren't 100% useful in blocking water droplets, insofar as wearing a mask makes it much less likely that you will touch your mouth with your hands or stick your finger in your nose.

If you also get into the habit of vigorously washing your hands before and after eating, well, you have done most of the hard yards in avoiding infection.

[Mar 27, 2020] Some important details on the France ibuprofen warning

Mar 27, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

c1ue , Mar 27 2020 12:36 utc | 189

Some important details on the France ibuprofen yes or no debate:
Source
The trouble over ibuprofen began March 11, when researchers at University Hospital Basel, in Switzerland, and Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, in Greece, published a letter in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine. The letter reviewed three early sets of case reports from China, covering almost 1,300 patients gravely ill with Covid-19. The letter's authors observed that significant numbers of those patients had high blood pressure and diabetes, from 12 percent to 30 percent depending on the study, and theorized that higher rates of expression of a particular enzyme, known for short as ACE2, might be raising the risk of coronavirus infection.

ACE2 provides a place on cell surfaces for the coronavirus to attach and enter in order to replicate. High blood pressure and diabetes are treated with drugs that suppress inflammation, called ACE inhibitors; the inhibitors, paradoxically, cause ACE2 to rise. That interaction is where the authors spotted a possible connection between patients experiencing chronic diseases and then becoming infected with Covid-19.

And that's where ibuprofen entered the unfolding story, too. The over-the-counter drug doesn't only knock down fever. It also reduces inflammation (the class of drugs it belongs to are known as NSAIDs, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs). That effect, as with the anti-inflammatory drugs given to chronic disease patients, can cause ACE2 to rise.

So any anti-inflammatory - whether ibuprofen or actual anti-inflammatory drugs - *can* (not will) cause ACE2 to rise. And ACE2 is what nCOV latches on to.

So the acetominophen/paracetamol vs. ibuprofen has nothing to do with the fever reduction side but the potential increase of ACE2, which *might* increase susceptibility to nCOV.

[Mar 27, 2020] Do not steam your masks. they are made of polyester and will shrink into a blob

Steam can be used for decontamination of cotton, but not polister
You can spay them with alcohol
Mar 27, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org
Passer by , Mar 26 2020 19:04 utc | 7
On the protection issue, use FFP 3 respirator masks (EU), or N99 (US) or KN 99 (China) and scarf over it. These masks filter 98 % of micro particles, including viruses. In case of mask shortages steam can be used to decontaminate masks. Also use gloves, eye protection and raincoat when in risky areas. Everything new taken in your home must be under 3 - 4 days quarantine in separate room. The raincoat too. After this quarantine items can be further cleaned with steam, ethanol, bleach + water, and groceries via soap and water.

Virus can stay for 3 hours in mid air (room) and 3 days on some surfaces. And it is possible that can even survive for up to 17 days on some surfaces, which would be pretty bad news. At least 5 meters distance between people outside is needed.

A.L. , Mar 26 2020 19:57 utc | 24

PSA:

1. do not steam your masks. they are made of polyester and will shrink into a blob. people have tried and failed. you can wash with soap and dry or low temp bake as B suggested. they will eventually fail from delaminating or the elastic band snapping.

2. stop behaving like you don't want to catch it, behave like you have it and you don't want others to catch it. we'll all be better off.

3. going on 2 - wearing masks with exhaust valves will just spray virus straight out of you're infected. if you're not sure you're infected (and you don't) wearing a valves N95 is just a dick act.

4. when PPE were in short supply in China, what they did was to wear N95 with surgical mask over the top. it's definitely off-label use but at least you can then reuse your precious N95 as it's shielded from external pathogens, at the same time your own exhaust valve (see 3) is also shielded from others.

[Mar 27, 2020] Malaria vs. coronavirus

Mar 27, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Peter AU1 , Mar 27 2020 11:53 utc | 184

Malaria is a single cell bug called a protozoa. My understanding that is a class of bugs like bacteria and viruses are classes of bugs.

Mosquitoes carry or host the bug and pass it onto people. The quinine type drugs block the bug and prevent it from attaching or entering cells. That is how the drug also works against the corona viruses. Various strains of the malaria bug have developed resistance to various drugs.

Because SARS-CoV-2 is a new bug, it should not have developed a resistance to any drug.

Human immunity is directed at pathogens and seems very specific even to strains as can be seen with influenza vaccines, and the malaria protozoa is a very different animal to the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

That's the basics as I know it. Others here may be able to explain it a little better.

[Mar 27, 2020] Authentic scientific inquiry of any sort is virtually impossible under neoliberalism

Mar 27, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Allen , Mar 27 2020 1:57 utc | 113

The money-driven institutions long ago hijacked America's health agencies–the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), FDA, Health and Human Services (HHS), National Institutes of Allergies and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), National Institutes of Mental Health, and the USDA– authentic scientific inquiry of any sort is virtually impossible in this climate.

During the past two decades the lines dividing the pharmaceutical industry and the federal health agencies has become increasingly blurred to put it kindly. The revolving door between private interests and top government employees at these agencies is well documented. One example is former CDC director Julie Gerberding who left government to become president of Merck's vaccine division, a move that earned her upwards of $3 million in stock options.

Keep in mind that CDC members own more than 50 patents connected to vaccinations.

Each of the 12 members of the CDC's ACIP Committee has a significant influence on the health of nearly every member of the American population. These are the people who are responsible for adding to and/or altering the national vaccine schedule. Does anyone believe for a second that given that these CDC members have a direct financial interest in this matter that they can remain objective and unbiased in creating vaccine policy, for example.

A significant number of ACIP committee members receive direct financial returns when more vaccinations are added to the current schedule. Many own vaccination related patents.

Some examples of patents owned or shared by members of the CDC and/or ACIP committee are;

1) Nucleic acid vaccines for prevention of flavivirus infection"
2) Various vaccination testing methods
3) Adjuvant patents
4) Assays that assist vaccine development
5) Vaccine quality control


Members of the CDC also own stock shares of the pharmaceutical companies responsible for supplying new vaccines to the public. Others receive research grant money, funding for their academic departments, or payments for the oversight of vaccine safety trials.

In 2007 the WHO changed it's definition of what qualifies as a pandemic. That needs to considered in the context of how the WHO changing it's funding mechanisms in 2005- meaning they went from a member states funded entity to a "private/public" partnership (PPP's).

As you might imagine the pharmaceuticals became primary donors and began to influence and now control policy decisions that come down from the WHO. Let's also keep in mind that when a "global pandemic" (again this is now defined by a decision-making body tied to large Pharma companies) is officially declared, certain powers now become "legal" for governments.

One of THE main outcomes in these PPP's is that virtually all funding for medical research gets funneled into certain spheres- meaning towards research that is ultimately going to benefit those companies funding it- Big Pharma.

[Mar 27, 2020] The problem in the USA is that this will require the reconstruction of the government and a national public health system to run the monitoring and quarantine system. Instead, the corrupt oligarchy will use government money to rescue themselves rather than saving the lives of Americans.

Mar 27, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

VietnamVet , Mar 27 2020 3:03 utc | 121

Exactly, a containment strategy with universal testing and quarantine of the infected (ill and asymptomatic) at home or safe facilities is required keep western society from collapsing from this and future waves of the novel coronavirus until a treatment or vaccine is developed.

The problem in the USA is that this will require the reconstruction of the government and a national public health system to run the monitoring and quarantine system. Instead, the corrupt oligarchy will use government money to rescue themselves rather than saving the lives of Americans.

[Mar 27, 2020] The neoliberal wrecking of our hospital system has been widely cited as a cause of the crisis. Among other things, hospitals reduced the number of beds, sold ventilators, and ran down supplies of masks and protective clothing in order to increase profitability.

Mar 27, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

john brewster , Mar 26 2020 22:56 utc | 77

The neoliberal wrecking of our hospital system has been widely cited as a cause of the crisis. Among other things, hospitals reduced the number of beds, sold ventilators, and ran down supplies of masks and protective clothing in order to increase profitability.

On the way to this crisis, the private hospital industry gave the American public the actions and the rhetoric of the Milo Minderbinder character from Catch-22:

What's good for M & M Enterprises will be good for the country.

Milo stripped out and sold all kinds of life-saving kit: morphine vials, parachutes, CO2 inflator cartridges for life vests. Milo epitomizes the neoliberal short-term, bottom-line, zero-redundancy world view that has looted America and corrupted its democracy over the last 40 years.

Just like the hapless flightcrew in Catch-22, Americans are discovering the true meaning behind the private hospitals' claim that what was good for their corporations was good for the "crew" as they survey the looted and privatized corpse of their healthcare system.

What was satire 50 years ago, is reality today. We had a preview of this when Rumsfeld ran the DoD.

Was Donald Rumsfeld channeling Milo (and laughing up his sleeve) when he said:

It is clearly cost-effective to have contractors for a variety of things that military people need not do, and that, for whatever reason, other civilians, government people, cannot be deployed to do...

But I personally am of the view that there are a lot of things that can be done on a short-time basis by contractors that advantage the United States and advantage other countries who also hire contractors. And that any idea that we shouldn't have them, I think, would be unwise.
- D. Rumsfeld, Rumsfeld's Speech on the Future of Iraq (2005)

Exactly when did America become a bunch of out-takes from Catch-22?

[Mar 27, 2020] This is an hour with experts who ran the Singapore response

Mar 27, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

jayvee , Mar 27 2020 1:53 utc | 110

This is an hour with experts who ran the Singapore response. It answers many of our questions and also those which cannot yet be answered. I resisted listening because it's an hour, but it was worthwhile.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3w8gu9S3lo

[Mar 27, 2020] We must also introduce the wearing of a mask in public as a new social norm:

Mar 27, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

MoA - More Bits On The Corona Crisis

Tests and care for Covid-19 must be for free. We need hospitals to care for only the critical cases. We need quarantine centers to isolate the milder cases from the wider population. Many hotels, sport arenas and exhibition halls are currently empty. They can be converted into quarantine stations within a day or two. People will have to stay for only two weeks. They would be fed and would have medical attention. That is a small restriction of the freedom of a few for a large benefit for our societies.

We must also introduce the wearing of a mask in public as a new social norm:

A number of studies have reported that a significant portion of people are even spreading the virus while presymptomatic -- in the day or two before they start to feel ill. Presymptomatic spreaders are, well, gonna spread. It's not their fault.

How much this type of transmission is driving the pandemic is unclear but it could be significant. Gabriel Leung, dean of medicine at the University of Hong Kong, has estimated about 40% of cases transmit before symptoms develop. A recent preprint -- a study that has not yet been peer-reviewed -- from China pooled data from seven countries and estimated a very similar 43%.

The novel coronavirus is spread to a large part by people who stay asymptomatic and by people who do not yet feel sick but will later show symptoms. When they talk, sneeze or cough they release small droplets that carry viruses. The droplets can stay in the air for some time. If a person coming along inhales those droplets the viruses will likely infect that person.

Those who have have the virus or might spread it should wear a mask because it prevents their droplets from flying out. Those who do not have the virus should wear a mask to prevent droplets from entering their body.

We were told that 'masks don't work' because they are not a 100% protection. The very tiny viruses can pass behind the mask at its sides or they can slip through its webbing. But the virus is not traveling alone but as part of a droplet. Even a relatively wide webbing may hold it up. If it is doubled with a sheet of cosmetic paper towel in between the protection will be even better. Microfilter bags for vacuum cleaners and so called HEPA filters are also effective materials that are readily available and easy to turn into masks.

The development of the epidemic will depend on how many people will start to regularly wear masks when they are not at home. Even if the protection masks prevent only 50% of new infections the speed with which the epidemic will unfold will be significantly lower.


Source: Financial Times - bigger

Consider that the societies in the blue circle are all ones where people regularly wear masks while the other countries (except China which was surprised by the outbreak) are societies were wearing a mask is seen as unusual. These 'blue' countries, which also gained experience during the SARS and MERS epidemics, show significant flatter trajectories.

Graphs similar to the above for all U.S. states and territories can be found here .

Meanwhile U.S. media continue to spread anti-China propaganda:

Two European Countries Report High Error Rate For Chinese Supplied Coronavirus Tests

Medical personnel in Spain and the Czech Republic have reported that the coronavirus rapid tests their respective countries have received from China are faulty and have a high error rate.

Several labs in Spanish hospitals have reported that the test kits they purchased, manufactured by Chinese company Bioeasy and based in Shenzhen, have a sensitivity of 30% when the sensitivity should be above 80%, Spanish newspaper El País reported Thursday. Due to the test's lack of reliability, medical personnel in Spain have switched back to the PCR test, which takes up to four hours for a diagnosis, while rapid tests take between 10 to 15 minutes

The Spanish government purchased 340,000 tests from the Chinese company, a similar quantity to the tests ordered by the Czech Republic, where medical personnel also report an 80% failure rate.

When one checks the original reports from Spain and from the Czech Republic one learns that these countries bought anti-body tests which only react when a person has had the virus for some time and developed anti-bodies against it. These tests can obviously not be used to find persons who are infected but have not yet developed anti-bodies.

China's ambassador in Spain also pointed out that these tests have yet to be verified by the regulator and were imported without the help or knowledge of the Chinese government.

The anti-body tests are valuable to identify people who have developed current immunity against the virus. These people can then care for those who are most endangered by the disease. Anti-body tests are quick. They can be used anywhere.

The polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests which are currently necessary to find if someone has the virus take at least four hours and specialized laboratories to process them. We will need a much quicker reliable test if we want to put our economies back to work. Luckily several companies and academic groups are already working on these and a 45 minute test is now ready to be marketed .

When we have a quick test for the virus and a quick test for anti-bodies available in mass we can restart the economy by 'filtering' through the population on a large scale. Movement restrictions would then only be needed for those who show virus-positive and anti-body negative results. All others could go back to work.

There would certainly still be outbreaks from people who escaped the 'filtering' process but with easy testing and care in place those clusters can be locally contained.

It may take another two month or so to get to that point. Until then there is little we can do but to stay apart as much as possible and to wear our masks.

[Mar 27, 2020] Questions, questions, questions

Mar 27, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

chu teh , Mar 27 2020 3:01 utc | 120

@Richard Steven Hack | Mar 26 2020 23:39 utc | 88

re spread of CV19--yr post interests me.

Have seen no data on how many viral particles it takes to cause a serious effect. Likely, such data would be in terms of probability at X [number of viral particles]. Such is known for many infective agents in surface and aerosol form, but CV19 may be very different.

Can CV19 vapor aerosol from mouth/breath in still air, exclusive of explosive discharge via cough/sneeze, cause full-blown case beyond 6 feet? I'd like to know.

Also, have not seen any data re time duration of infective after it enters throat passage on journey to lungs. I posit that there are anti-viral liquids that might be effective if small amount were trickled down throat 2x per day; surely just before bedtime to discourage the next 7-hs of undisturbed incubation. I do take something that I am guessing may be effective. [E.g., I also
"heard" OliveOilExtract as anti-viral but I have no experience with it.]

Another thought: Re different strains of CV19 having very different outcomes...Anyone suggestion that US forms collectively having, say, milder outcomes relative to China/Iran/LombardyItaly, etc? Seems to be an aversion to testing the general population, or even publishing all results of the small amount of tests with time+place data. Where are the lists of 1st observations of "unusual flu" in US? that would NORMALLY, provoke tracking + names/places of sequential contacts?

Routine discovery and mapping of communication lines is very likely to uncover a lot of truth. That is what rational folks desire.

[Mar 26, 2020] This is about more then American gullibilty

Mar 26, 2020 | www.unz.com

refl , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 9:53 am GMT

@Gleimhart Mantooso

show me where all the non-gullible people live

You are right. While corona in my view is absolutely bonkers, and as my conviction mounts with every half witted calculation that I come across, it gains its own dimension in reality. The cause is non-existent but the consequences are real:
People die in overwhelmed hospitals in run down health systems. The world economy is breaking down, as it was going to anyhow. The convenient scapegoat has been found and the interest for the PTB to allow the truth to come out is zero.
Will we get laws that make Corona-denial illegal? Because it dishonors the dead and traumatizes their families?

I am praying to Saint Ron to fearlessly tell the truth, but he goes corona full steam.

I have written this before. My Damaskus moment was Kiew in february 2014. Since then I have known that the same people who were behind that thing would set my country and the world on fire in time.
I marvel at their inventiveness.

This is about more then American gullibilty.

Anonymous [545] Disclaimer , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 10:14 am GMT

Similarly, once government lockdowns or other similar measures are taken, the doubling-period of the infection becomes much longer.

I'm pretty certain that there's no doubling once a country, (province, city, whatever) enacts a relatively comprehensive lockdown and people themselves take it seriously. I'm in one of those countries and if I look around it's clear that the R0 ratio is way below 1. Probably less than 0.1 to be honest.

If I remember correctly, COVID-19 R0 ratio in China was somewhere around 3.5 when the country was still figuring it out. That's a horrible number but it's easy to see how it can be brought down to a tiny fraction when 95% of risky contacts get removed and the remaining 5% approached with protective gear and caution. The virus doesn't stand a chance in that kind of environment.

So, the numbers in my neck of the woods will almost certainly start decreasing rapidly in the coming weeks but the problem of international travel will remain for many months (years?).

[Mar 26, 2020] Reflections on a Century of Junk Science

Highly recommended!
Mar 26, 2020 | www.unz.com

Kratoklastes , says: Show Comment Next New Comment March 25, 2020 at 6:16 pm GMT

@thotmonger

I also remember some of early estimates of Mad Cow disease in humans in UK and they turned out to be very exaggerated.

When the political class was trying to de-gay HIV/AIDS in 1987, they had Oprah tell everyone that 20% of heterosexual people would be dead before 1990.

The first I learned of Oprah's jaw-droppingly sensationalist remarks, was in a piece a couple of days ago on AmericanThinker (which sounds like a rare bird indeed, if not an outright oxymoron – but it has good stuff from time to time).

Anyhow, it was an interesting piece – entitled " Reflections on a Century of Junk Science " by the author of " Hoodwinked: How Intellectual Hucksters Have Hijacked American Culture ", which I will acquire today. (The book's 11 years old, but sounds like it will be along the same lines as Kendrick's " Doctoring Data: How to Sort Out Medical Advice from Medical Nonsense ", which was excellent).

[Mar 26, 2020] As of March 19th five Italian doctors and 13 medics have lost their lives with 2,629 health workers infected, or 8,3 per cent.

Mar 26, 2020 | www.unz.com

Pandour , says: Website Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 4:04 pm GMT

@UncommonGround ,,,As of March 19th there were 93 Corona deaths in Bergamo and counting. As of March 19th five Italian doctors and 13 medics have lost their lives with 2,629 health workers infected, or 8,3 per cent.

[Mar 26, 2020] Nearly 40% of the Italian fatalities were using ACE inhibitors (and this may be an underestimate as pre-admission medication charts were lacking). The virus binds to the pulmonary ACE2 receptor.

Mar 26, 2020 | www.unz.com

gfhÄndel , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 11:48 am GMT

I will keep this comment as brief as possible.
I welcome refutation of these theses, which I believe are crucial to any analysis of the response to the pandemic:
1. Current screening tests for COVID19 (a PCR test, not an antibody test) have a high rate of false positives (see excellent contributions on this topic from Kratoklastes).
2. Draconian public health responses are allegedly aimed at minimizing serious COVID19 disease (severe respiratory distress, up to and including ARDS). "Positive" testing individuals overwhelming do not fall into this category.
3. At this juncture, our best single metric is death from COVID19. Unfortunately the definition of a COVID19 fatality varies between jurisdictions. To be counted as such a fatality, the current best definition would be: novel coronovirus IgM (+/- IgG) positive (proof of recent infection) plus ARDS (radiologically, if not pathologically, confirmed).
4. Alleged COVID19 fatalities are overwhelming patients >70 having 3 or more serious comorbidities.
5. There is an association between ACE-inhibitor or AT-receptor antagonist use and likelihood of death from infection by novel coronavirus.

To the last point: nearly 40% of the Italian fatalities were using ACE inhibitors (and this may be an underestimate as pre-admission medication charts were lacking). The virus binds to the pulmonary ACE2 receptor.
Conceivably the use of ACE-inhibitors (or the related AT-receptor antagonists) induces upregulation of this receptor, but this is purely conjecture on my part.
Anecdotally, use of this medication class is lower in Germany, which has been proffered among reasons for its lower fatality rates.

[Mar 26, 2020] An antibody test for COVID-19 virus exposure is near to becoming commercially available and this is likely to be widely used in order to identify people who can safely volunteer to help with the pandemic it may provide some interesting statistics and a different management perspective.

Mar 26, 2020 | www.unz.com

macilrae , says: Show Comment Next New Comment March 25, 2020 at 6:36 pm GMT

@Realist I have two family members in UK who have already recovered after testing positive and I, myself, suffered ten days with an unpleasant dry cough, malaise and low grade fever late in February – which has since cleared uneventfully. I was never tested and, following my GP, discounted being infected with COVID-19 at that time.

An antibody test for COVID-19 virus exposure is near to becoming commercially available and this is likely to be widely used in order to identify people who can safely volunteer to help with the pandemic – it may provide some interesting statistics and a different management perspective.

[Mar 25, 2020] When stat-molesters jump in to inform me that pneumonia is known, but COVID-19 is new its spread could be exponential

Mar 25, 2020 | www.unz.com

Will , says: Show Comment Next New Comment March 25, 2020 at 7:01 pm GMT

"This, of course, is when stat-molesters jump in to inform me that pneumonia is known, but COVID-19 is new & its spread could be exponential

BUT, you'd need to base this on something far less moronic than using infection & death rates among the sick to project to the population"

https://twitter.com/saifedean/status/1242487066711273473

"So far we know:
-tests have large error margin
-positive tests only associated with small chance of being sick
-vast majority of COVID-19 cases have other serious diseases
-We have 80x more pneumonia cases than COVID-19

Are these good reasons to suspend the lives of billions?"

https://twitter.com/saifedean/status/1242489837409701894

[Mar 25, 2020] The critique of one simplistic model

Mar 25, 2020 | www.unz.com

NPleeze , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 5:10 am GMT

the Coronavirus death statistics are certainly far more solid and reliable

But still quite unreliable. Nobody knows what tests are being performed or how accurate those tests are. For all we know they are calling flu/pneumonia deaths as COVID-19 deaths, whether deliberately/recklessly (pressured) or because the tests are simply faulty.

If we assume a mortality rate of 1%

Based on what? As noted, the best case of a general population exposure is the Diamond Princess – where all passengers were exposed fully for 2 weeks and then under terrible quarantine conditions for 4 weeks. Of the 3,177 passengers and crew, some 677 (20%) took ill, and 7 (0.2% of the population, and 1% of the ill) died, all of them in their 70s and older (and indeed the data released by the Japanese health ministry indicates the ship had twice the number of people in each age category 60-79, 70-79, and 80+ than does the US).

Conveniently, everyone repeating the hysteria line completely omits to look at the best data available.

Number of infected = Number of Deaths / Mortality_Rate * 2^(Mortality_Period/Doubling_Period)

Nothing in nature is exponential as everything runs up against some barrier, usually sooner than later. I can make the argument about rabbit reproduction: each female rabbit can produce 60 rabbits per year in three litters. This would indicate that each male/female pair increases 10-fold every 3 months – a far faster growth rate than your virus. And under certain conditions, they can, for a time, accomplish that before they hit the proverbial brick wall.

Let's look at Italy. The first recorded death (FWIW) was Feb. 21. Now using your assumptions, there had been 100 new infections three weeks earlier (on Jan. 31). Next, as you assume a doubling-period of 6 days, those 100 infections would have increased to 100 x 2^(37/6) = 7,183 infections by the time of March 8, when the emergency orders went into effect. However, on March 8 there had already been 366 deaths. Since the disease, according to your model, takes 3 weeks to kill, this means we need to look at the number of infections on Feb. 21, which, in your model, equals 100 x 2^(21/6) = 1,131.

In other words, on Feb. 21 there were 1,131 persons infected, and of those, 366 had died by March 8. For a mortality rate of 32.3%.

But let's work backwards from another date. By Mar. 24, there had been 6,820 deaths. To arrive at that, using your assumed death rate, that means by Mar. 3, 682,000 people had to be infected (since 1% of them would die within 3 weeks). Which means, according to your model, that 341,000 were infected on Feb. 26, 170,500 on Feb. 20. But your model already showed that only 1,131 were infected on Feb. 21.

In other words, this "model" is utter bunk.

What we do know is as follows: the death rate on the Diamond Princess, under terrible conditions, was 0.2%, all over 70.

The global death rate is about 18,000 dead out of 7 billion. The annual tuberculosis death number is between 1 and 2 million.

That people who are very old (and thus have compromised immune systems) or people who have various chronic diseases are the ones who die from this disease. This is because the virus can attack numerous receptors, including those in the kidney, liver, heart, white blood cells, and pancreas (a sort of "frankenstein" bio-engineered virus). Thus anyone with a weak pancreas (diabetes), kidney, liver, heart (hypertension, etc.), or lungs (smokers, etc.) are susceptible to having an organ fail.

The death rate will grow only among this segment of the population. It is enough to isolate them (or, better yet, have them self-isolate).

The reason younger Americans are dying is because Americans are extremely unhealthy. I wager all the very sick younger Americans are obese, probably with diabetes, don't exercise, and eat unhealthy foods, leading to heart and other weaknesses.

All of this apart from the issue, of how long this virus has been in the wild. It seems my mother caught this disease in early February, in a small Midwestern isolated community – she had what are given at the symptoms, but nobody was looking for it at the time, so there is no diagnosis of her illness.

OscarWildeLoveChild , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 12:38 pm GMT
@NPleeze 12 experts tend to agree with you

https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/24/12-experts-questioning-the-coronavirus-panic/

Isn't the real issue this (numerically and culturally): we have a health care system, which is obviously not made to provide services to every single American whenever they need it, all at the same time , and this pandemic is likely to kill say, a million old people (given how large our overall population is), and since no one "gets" to just die (ala Soylent Green) but instead gets sick at 70, 80, etc and has to be preserved forever so anything that "burns" through what would be an otherwise healthy population, as with all animals (including humans) historically, instead becomes such a serious risk (if not somewhat random) to the old or infirm, that we shut everything down, potentially causing all sorts of other human catastrophes so that some old folks get to choose another death (maybe the flu?) over a Covid-19 death?

Long run on sentence, but isn't that really what this is all about now ?

[Mar 25, 2020] An error occurred.

Mar 25, 2020 | www.youtube.com

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[Mar 25, 2020] Fearmongering via mathiness: Neill Ferguson of Imperial College London argues that every fatality represents an infected population one thousand strong.

The gullibility of population might have been temporarily upped by Covid-19 worries
Mar 25, 2020 | www.unz.com

Bmac says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 12:28 pm GMT 100 Words Neill Ferguson of Imperial College London argues that every fatality represents an infected population one thousand strong.

See:

https://www.youtube.com/embed/4g7Qpvhh5m4?feature=oembed

He notes:

A case fatality rate of 1% – which means that on average, every fatality at the time of their infection represents a population of one hundred.

Given the rate of transmission, those one hundred will infect another nine hundred during the average incubation period of three weeks.

[Mar 25, 2020] Sterilization of used face masks

Probably the simplest is ironing with iron set to 200F or so
Mar 25, 2020 | www.unz.com

Saggy , says: Website Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 1:13 pm GMT

@joe webb You can google up several papers on the subject, apparently the best method is to use UV light https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-masks-reuse.html
I just ordered a UV sterilization box from Amazon or Ebay (can't remember), you need to check that it's shipped from the US as most are shipped from China and take a while. The other easily available method is heat, but here it's difficult to determine the time/temp parameters https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0186217

[Mar 25, 2020] Analogy between coronavirus epidemic estimates and lacrosse popularity estimates

Mar 25, 2020 | www.unz.com

prime noticer says: Show Comment Next New Comment

March 25, 2020 at 5:51 pm GMT this entire thread is a false positive.

i estimate based on the rapid growth of lacrosse that in only a few years time, it will overtake football as the most popular sport in America.

see how this works?

[Mar 25, 2020] PCR detects DNA or RNA of both live and dead organisms, positive test results may be achieved even if the infection has been controlled

Notable quotes:
"... Also, one must know the tests specificity and disease prevalence. If specificity is 99.5% and disease prevalence is 0.5%, testing everyone regardless of symptoms or risk will yield 50% false positives (half the positives are false). ..."
"... The tests on the market are self validated. FDA does not review manufacturers data. No tort liability for covid 19 tests or vaccines ..."
"... Likewise I would not trust data from anywhere given the nature of the tests. At the end of the day we will need to look for any bump in total deaths from all causes, population reduction and age data to estimate the impact ..."
"... There is obviously a lot of profit incentive for making people believe there is a threat, which is why our trusted and reliable MSM play it up. ..."
Mar 25, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Pft , Mar 24 2020 23:40 utc | 104

US has actually performed over 150,000 tests. The problem is too much testing.

PCR detects DNA or RNA of both live and dead organisms, positive test results may be achieved even if the infection has been controlled

Also, one must know the tests specificity and disease prevalence. If specificity is 99.5% and disease prevalence is 0.5%, testing everyone regardless of symptoms or risk will yield 50% false positives (half the positives are false).

The tests on the market are self validated. FDA does not review manufacturers data. No tort liability for covid 19 tests or vaccines

China did very little testing the first 2 months the disease wa spreading. We now know retrospectively the first case was November 17, and expanded testing did not begin until Jan 18 after 16 consecutive days of no new cases. Lockdown did not begin until Jan 23. Its impossible for the virus to have been contained in Hubei as we are led to believe from data reported from other provinces

Likewise I would not trust data from anywhere given the nature of the tests. At the end of the day we will need to look for any bump in total deaths from all causes, population reduction and age data to estimate the impact

There is obviously a lot of profit incentive for making people believe there is a threat, which is why our trusted and reliable MSM play it up. But for some reason the so called evils of capitalism and fake news MSM are ignored by the most faithful opponents of both in support of the Pandemic Vaccine Industrial Complex

[Mar 25, 2020] It's incredible that the Director of the Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was a participant in the Gates Foundation Event 201, essentially gaming out the same kind of pandemic which arose just a few months later.

Mar 25, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

jayc , Mar 24 2020 18:10 utc | 27

It's incredible that the Director of the Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was a participant in the Gates Foundation Event 201, essentially gaming out the same kind of pandemic which arose just a few months later.

To say the CDC messed up is an gross understatement.

Their policies of denying testing, pushing a flawed test which had to be withdrawn, and acting without urgency as their own directives allowed major population centers in Pacific Northwest, New York and California to become infected beyond control expose a decided lack of preparedness or response.

A major focus of Event 201 was the integration of private sector, or corporate, interests into the pandemic response architecture.

The Preparedness and Response people were in effect corporate lobbyists, not public health experts. Hiding this sad fact is motivating the furious effort to lay all blame at feet of Chinese government.

[Mar 25, 2020] 12 Experts Questioning the Coronavirus Panic – OffGuardian

Notable quotes:
"... The state governments prefer that all schools be closed while Canberra is receiving advice from Dr Brendan Murphy, Chief Health Officer of Australia, that schools not be closed because children would be at more risk of picking up COVID-19 from adults at home, and from congregating in areas where they are not being supervised by adults if they decide not to stay at home for various reasons (because among other things they would also be at risk from domestic violence). ..."
"... Please don't feel brainwashed into taking totally unnecessary extra precautions beyond normal levels of hygiene in order to protect yourself from a common coronavirus. ..."
"... The behavior of elites across the globe suggest a level of collective anxiety not seen in before in my lifetime. Certainly endless decades of oligarchic control maintained through keeping Western populations mystified by means of coordinated mass propaganda – has seen rather significant cracks develop through the emergence of progressive independent journalism shared across the world via the web. One would think those ever widening cracks in the indoctrination system have perhaps clarified for our betters that their fairy tales are falling upon ever greater numbers of deaf ears around the globe. ..."
"... Given currently unfolding events one is tempted to think that elites – perhaps rather than being left to respond to events completely out of their control – like a system-crashing spontaneous economic collapse – are collectively choosing to instead to – "control what they can" – through this supposed 'pandemic' response operation. ..."
"... That this over the top elite led pandemic response appears an effort to lead the credulous masses into whatever straightjacket has been prepared for us is simply impossible to ignore. ..."
Mar 24, 2020 | off-guardian.org

Below is our list of twelve medical experts whose opinions on the Coronavirus outbreak contradict the official narratives of the MSM, and the memes so prevalent on social media.

* * *

Dr Sucharit Bhakdi is a specialist in microbiology. He was a professor at the Johannes Gutenberg University in Mainz and head of the Institute for Medical Microbiology and Hygiene and one of the most cited research scientists in German history.

What he says:

We are afraid that 1 million infections with the new virus will lead to 30 deaths per day over the next 100 days. But we do not realise that 20, 30, 40 or 100 patients positive for normal coronaviruses are already dying every day.

[The government's anti-COVID19 measures] are grotesque, absurd and very dangerous [ ] The life expectancy of millions is being shortened. The horrifying impact on the world economy threatens the existence of countless people. The consequences on medical care are profound. Already services to patients in need are reduced, operations cancelled, practices empty, hospital personnel dwindling. All this will impact profoundly on our whole society.

All these measures are leading to self-destruction and collective suicide based on nothing but a spook.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/JBB9bA-gXL4

*

Dr Wolfgang Wodarg is a German physician specialising in Pulmonology, politician and former chairman of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. In 2009 he called for an inquiry into alleged conflicts of interest surrounding the EU response to the Swine Flu pandemic.

What he says:

Politicians are being courted by scientists scientists who want to be important to get money for their institutions. Scientists who just swim along in the mainstream and want their part of it [ ] And what is missing right now is a rational way of looking at things.

We should be asking questions like "How did you find out this virus was dangerous?", "How was it before?", "Didn't we have the same thing last year?", "Is it even something new?"

That's missing.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/p_AyuhbnPOI

*

Dr Joel Kettner s professor of Community Health Sciences and Surgery at Manitoba University, former Chief Public Health Officer for Manitoba province and Medical Director of the International Centre for Infectious Diseases.

What he says :

I have never seen anything like this, anything anywhere near like this. I'm not talking about the pandemic, because I've seen 30 of them, one every year. It is called influenza. And other respiratory illness viruses, we don't always know what they are. But I've never seen this reaction, and I'm trying to understand why.

[ ]

I worry about the message to the public, about the fear of coming into contact with people, being in the same space as people, shaking their hands, having meetings with people. I worry about many, many consequences related to that.

[ ]

In Hubei, in the province of Hubei, where there has been the most cases and deaths by far, the actual number of cases reported is 1 per 1000 people and the actual rate of deaths reported is 1 per 20,000. So maybe that would help to put things into perspective.

Audio Player 00:00 00:00 00:00 Use Up/Down Arrow keys to increase or decrease volume.

*

Dr John Ioannidis Professor of Medicine, of Health Research and Policy and of Biomedical Data Science, at Stanford University School of Medicine and a Professor of Statistics at Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences. He is director of the Stanford Prevention Research Center, and co-director of the Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS).

He is also the editor-in-chief of the European Journal of Clinical Investigation. He was chairman at the Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Ioannina School of Medicine as well as adjunct professor at Tufts University School of Medicine.

As a physician, scientist and author he has made contributions to evidence-based medicine, epidemiology, data science and clinical research. In addition, he pioneered the field of meta-research. He has shown that much of the published research does not meet good scientific standards of evidence.

What he says :

Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.

The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.

[ ]

Could the Covid-19 case fatality rate be that low? No, some say, pointing to the high rate in elderly people. However, even some so-called mild or common-cold-type coronaviruses that have been known for decades can have case fatality rates as high as 8% when they infect elderly people in nursing homes.

[ ]

If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to "influenza-like illness" would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average.

– "A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data", Stat News , 17th March 2020

*

Dr Yoram Lass is an Israeli physician, politician and former Director General of the Health Ministry. He also worked as Associate Dean of the Tel Aviv University Medical School and during the 1980s presented the science-based television show Tatzpit.

What he says :

Italy is known for its enormous morbidity in respiratory problems, more than three times any other European country. In the US about 40,000 people die in a regular flu season and so far 40-50 people have died of the coronavirus, most of them in a nursing home in Kirkland, Washington.

[ ]

In every country, more people die from regular flu compared with those who die from the coronavirus.

[ ]

there is a very good example that we all forget: the swine flu in 2009. That was a virus that reached the world from Mexico and until today there is no vaccination against it. But what? At that time there was no Facebook or there maybe was but it was still in its infancy. The coronavirus, in contrast, is a virus with public relations.

Whoever thinks that governments end viruses is wrong.

– Interview in Globes , March 22nd 2020

*

Dr Pietro Vernazza is a Swiss physician specialising Infectious Diseases at the Cantonal Hospital St. Gallen and Professor of Health Policy.

What he says:

We have reliable figures from Italy and a work by epidemiologists, which has been published in the renowned science journal ‹Science›, which examined the spread in China. This makes it clear that around 85 percent of all infections have occurred without anyone noticing the infection. 90 percent of the deceased patients are verifiably over 70 years old, 50 percent over 80 years.

[ ]

In Italy, one in ten people diagnosed die, according to the findings of the Science publication, that is statistically one of every 1,000 people infected. Each individual case is tragic, but often – similar to the flu season – it affects people who are at the end of their lives.

[ ]

If we close the schools, we will prevent the children from quickly becoming immune.

[ ]

We should better integrate the scientific facts into the political decisions.

– Interview in St. Galler Tagblatt , 22nd March 2020

*

Frank Ulrich Montgomery is German radiologist, former President of the German Medical Association and Deputy Chairman of the World Medical Association.

What he says :

I'm not a fan of lockdown. Anyone who imposes something like this must also say when and how to pick it up again. Since we have to assume that the virus will be with us for a long time, I wonder when we will return to normal? You can't keep schools and daycare centers closed until the end of the year. Because it will take at least that long until we have a vaccine. Italy has imposed a lockdown and has the opposite effect. They quickly reached their capacity limits, but did not slow down the virus spread within the lockdown.

– Interview in General Anzeiger , 18th March 2020

*

Prof. Hendrik Streeck is a German HIV researcher, epidemiologist and clinical trialist. He is professor of virology, and the director of the Institute of Virology and HIV Research, at Bonn University.

What he says :

The new pathogen is not that dangerous, it is even less dangerous than Sars-1. The special thing is that Sars-CoV-2 replicates in the upper throat area and is therefore much more infectious because the virus jumps from throat to throat, so to speak. But that is also an advantage: Because Sars-1 replicates in the deep lungs, it is not so infectious, but it definitely gets on the lungs, which makes it more dangerous.

[ ]

You also have to take into account that the Sars-CoV-2 deaths in Germany were exclusively old people. In Heinsberg, for example, a 78-year-old man with previous illnesses died of heart failure, and that without Sars-2 lung involvement. Since he was infected, he naturally appears in the Covid 19 statistics. But the question is whether he would not have died anyway, even without Sars-2.

– Interview in Frankfurter Allgemeine , 16th March 2020

*

Dr Yanis Roussel et. al. – A team of researchers from the Institut Hospitalo-universitaire M้diterran้e Infection, Marseille and the Institut de Recherche pour le D้veloppement, Assistance Publique-H๔pitaux de Marseille, conducting a peer-reviewed study on Coronavirus mortality for the government of France under the 'Investments for the Future' programme.

What they say :

The problem of SARS-CoV-2 is probably overestimated, as 2.6 million people die of respiratory infections each year compared with less than 4000 deaths for SARS-CoV-2 at the time of writing.

[ ]

This study compared the mortality rate of SARS-CoV-2 in OECD countries (1.3%) with the mortality rate of common coronaviruses identified in AP-HM patients (0.8%) from 1 January 2013 to 2 March 2020. Chi-squared test was performed, and the P-value was 0.11 (not significant).

[ ]

it should be noted that systematic studies of other coronaviruses (but not yet for SARS-CoV-2) have found that the percentage of asymptomatic carriers is equal to or even higher than the percentage of symptomatic patients. The same data for SARS-CoV-2 may soon be available, which will further reduce the relative risk associated with this specific pathology.

– "SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data", International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents , 19th March 2020

*

Dr. David Katz is an American physician and founding director of the Yale University Prevention Research Center

What he says :

I am deeply concerned that the social, economic and public health consequences of this near-total meltdown of normal life -- schools and businesses closed, gatherings banned -- will be long-lasting and calamitous, possibly graver than the direct toll of the virus itself. The stock market will bounce back in time, but many businesses never will. The unemployment, impoverishment and despair likely to result will be public health scourges of the first order.

– "Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease?", New York Times 20th March 2020

*

Michael T. Osterholm is regents professor and director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

What he says :

Consider the effect of shutting down offices, schools, transportation systems, restaurants, hotels, stores, theaters, concert halls, sporting events and other venues indefinitely and leaving all of their workers unemployed and on the public dole. The likely result would be not just a depression but a complete economic breakdown, with countless permanently lost jobs, long before a vaccine is ready or natural immunity takes hold.

[ ]

[T]he best alternative will probably entail letting those at low risk for serious disease continue to work, keep business and manufacturing operating, and "run" society, while at the same time advising higher-risk individuals to protect themselves through physical distancing and ramping up our health-care capacity as aggressively as possible. With this battle plan, we could gradually build up immunity without destroying the financial structure on which our lives are based.

– "Facing covid-19 reality: A national lockdown is no cure", Washington Post 21st March 2020

*

Dr Peter Goetzsche is Professor of Clinical Research Design and Analysis at the University of Copenhagen and founder of the Cochrane Medical Collaboration. He has written several books on corruption in the field of medicine and the power of big pharmaceutical companies.

What he says :

Our main problem is that no one will ever get in trouble for measures that are too draconian. They will only get in trouble if they do too little. So, our politicians and those working with public health do much more than they should do.

No such draconian measures were applied during the 2009 influenza pandemic, and they obviously cannot be applied every winter, which is all year round, as it is always winter somewhere. We cannot close down the whole world permanently.

Should it turn out that the epidemic wanes before long, there will be a queue of people wanting to take credit for this. And we can be damned sure draconian measures will be applied again next time. But remember the joke about tigers. "Why do you blow the horn?" "To keep the tigers away." "But there are no tigers here." "There you see!"

– "Corona: an epidemic of mass panic", blog post on Deadly Medicines 21st March 2020


Gary Wilson ,

What happened in Wuhan will eventually happen everywhere. Any new pathogen will rapidly spread in the susceptible population (those with some degree of a compromised immune system). After a period there will be no more susceptible people left to infect and the disease will disappear. Government regulations to prevent the spread is of no use if someone infected with the pathogen can infect others before they get the symptoms that they have the disease. Lots of money is spent fighting the virus (there is money to be made!) while no money is spent to improve the immune system of those people with weakened immune systems.

fred ,

Btw, the only major sporting event still going on right now is the Chess Candidates Tournament (which is a qualification for the World Championship) taking place in Yekaterinburg, Russia. (Which has freezing temperatures right now and is covered in snow.)

Players get a health check up twice daily, but are not tested for the coronavirus specifically. This means that if any one of the players gets a cold or mild temperature: coronavirus!

Therefore I expect the tournament to be halted mid-way any day now. (Also if one of the players feels like the tournament is not going well, or that his preparation is not working, they might pretend to be sick to get the tournament postponed.)

https://www.chess.com/news/view/coronavirus-testing-at-fide-candidates-chess-tournament

Norman Pilon ,

BTW: is that 12 or 13 experts?

fred ,

Tokyo 2020: Olympic and Paralympic Games postponed because of coronavirus (was scheduled for 24 July in Japan)
Chess Olympiad postponed (was scheduled for August 5-17 in Russia)
UEFA postpones EURO 2020 (was scheduled for June/July)

Norman Pilon ,

Nice! You've saved me and a lot of other people a lot of time. Of course, I'm also sharing this through the miracle of 'copying-and-pasting.'

Doctortrinate ,

oh, yeah – lets blitz those oppressive nasties !

there's nothing greater than you and me .Love will conquer if you just believe .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WmPeLOLDnA

Jen ,

Dear Off-Guardian,

You may be well aware that the Australian Federal government is at loggerheads with New South Wales and Victorian state governments over the issue of closing all schools.

The state governments prefer that all schools be closed while Canberra is receiving advice from Dr Brendan Murphy, Chief Health Officer of Australia, that schools not be closed because children would be at more risk of picking up COVID-19 from adults at home, and from congregating in areas where they are not being supervised by adults if they decide not to stay at home for various reasons (because among other things they would also be at risk from domestic violence).

Please find at this link an article which among other things gives the opinions of various medical and health experts who oppose the closure of schools during the current lock-downs here in Australia.

An example of such advice from the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee:

The AHPPC met on Tuesday 17 March to consider the issue of school closures in relation to the community transmission of COVID‑19. The Committee's advice is that pre-emptive closures are not proportionate or effective as a public health intervention to prevent community transmission of COVID-19 at this time Previous studies suggest that the potential reduction in community transmission from pre‑emptive school closures may be offset by the care arrangements that are in place for children who are not at school. Children may require care from older carers who are more vulnerable to severe disease, or may continue to associate (and transmit infection) outside of school settings. Broadly, the health evidence on school closures from previous respiratory epidemics shows the costs are often underestimated and the benefits are overestimated. This may be even more so in relation to COVID-19 as, unlike influenza, the impact on otherwise healthy children has been minimal to date. School closure is associated with considerable costs. Studies have estimated that around 15% of the total workforce and 30% of the healthcare workforce may need to take time off work to care for children. This burden will be significant and will fall disproportionately on those in casual or tenuous work circumstances. At this stage, the spread of COVID-19 in the community is at quite low levels. It may be many months before the level of Australian community infection is again as low as it is at the moment More than 70 countries around the world have implemented either nationwide or localised school closures, at different times in the evolution of the local COVID-19 epidemic, however it should be noted the majority of these have not been successful in controlling the outbreak. Some of these countries are now considering their position in relation to re-opening schools. Singapore has had success in limiting the transmission of COVID-19 in the community without closing schools" [however the successful period in Singapore coincided with school holidays and when students returned they were temperature-tested ]

Antonym ,

This cure is worse than the disease, true.

Governments made lock downs in haste, erring on the heavy handed side just to be "sure". Who can prove them wrong afterwards? The voters.

Airplanes have been the worse spreaders.

Some religious preachers have shown to be immune to public self isolate calls in Asia.

Maybe a good Global practice run for when a really deadly virus breaks loose?

Let East Asian and central African wildlife wet markets be forbidden and enforced with long jail and financial sentences.

Virus Guy ,

Nonsense. It was not in haste or error. No government is going to hastily shut down its economy out of too much tender concern for its citizens, and we have teams of analysts and advisors on infectious disease working for governments who would never have advised this insane level of 'precautions ' for a moderate coronavirus showing no evidence of extreme infectivity or fatality.

As in China the reaction has anticipated a non-existent problem and then gone beyond any accepted protocol to 'respond.' This has all the hallmarks of an entirely manufactured crisis.

Virus Guy ,

Please don't feel brainwashed into taking totally unnecessary extra precautions beyond normal levels of hygiene in order to protect yourself from a common coronavirus.

fred ,

[Potential False-Positive Rate Among the 'Asymptomatic Infected Individuals' in Close Contacts of COVID-19 Patients] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32133832/?fbclid=IwAR1x58i9MUS16isOtdzAOJHr1TZNpVz4kw-6S5mtyRG_MUg3XVK_RajavAI

Results: When the infection rate of the close contacts and the sensitivity and specificity of reported results were taken as the point estimates, the positive predictive value of the active screening was only 19.67%, in contrast, the false-positive rate of positive results was 80.33%. The multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analysis results supported the base-case findings, with a 75% probability for the false-positive rate of positive results over 47%. Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives.

Gary Weglarz ,

The behavior of elites across the globe suggest a level of collective anxiety not seen in before in my lifetime. Certainly endless decades of oligarchic control maintained through keeping Western populations mystified by means of coordinated mass propaganda – has seen rather significant cracks develop through the emergence of progressive independent journalism shared across the world via the web. One would think those ever widening cracks in the indoctrination system have perhaps clarified for our betters that their fairy tales are falling upon ever greater numbers of deaf ears around the globe.

Given currently unfolding events one is tempted to think that elites – perhaps rather than being left to respond to events completely out of their control – like a system-crashing spontaneous economic collapse – are collectively choosing to instead to – "control what they can" – through this supposed 'pandemic' response operation.

That is to initiate a prefabricated "response" – proactively to a projected impending system catastrophe that is only a matter of time. Or perhaps this is simply a "testing operation," a "dry run" so to speak for when the uncontrollable event that crashes the system does take place. A chance to gauge public reactions and further fine tune future response options?

That this over the top elite led pandemic response appears an effort to lead the credulous masses into whatever straightjacket has been prepared for us is simply impossible to ignore.

Gary Weglarz ,

On the breathtaking clairvoyance of our wealthiest elites:

https://www.youtube.com/embed/QA183AnUxMM?version=3&rel=1&fs=1&autohide=2&showsearch=0&showinfo=1&iv_load_policy=1&wmode=transparent

fred ,

youtube.com/watch?v=lUXHB5U-Vl4

Croach ,

And here we have it.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

Slight uptick in overall registered deaths although still below average for this time of year. But they've omitted the figures for deaths where the underlying cause was respiratory illness. I can think of no legitimate reason why they would do so.

These are registered deaths, everybody knows they don't represent the true current number of deaths.

There is no legitimate rationale for 'waiting for more accurate data' or any such excuse. Even if the data is incomplete it's published. It's a registry of deaths not an adjusted death rate.

I really can't keep a sense of humour about this. Or take any satisfaction from 'knowing better' or 'I told you so'. I thought what was happening now would be a process of years. I don't expect sites like this will survive very long, regardless of how fringe or maligned they are.

I'd like to say invest in printing presses. But it's probably too late for that now.

fred ,

So on the one hand we get: "Don't travel! Close the borders! Stop the virus!"
And on the other:
Government tells New Zealanders to come home
US government tells citizens to come home
Australia tells citizens to come home
Canadians abroad urged to come home
Norway urges citizens to return home

Does this not contradict their own narrative? Does this not show how it's all bullshit?

Donna ,

Excellent post! Thank you.

We have a new religion sweeping over the Earth claiming new adherents in nearly every country! 😄
https://www.maravipost.com/covid-19-and-common-sense-religion/

Terje Maloy ,

The cat is slowly being let out of the bag Recently leaked (or unofficially released) Norwegian government papers says the Corona measures are expected to be in place for 12 to 18 months, not just for a few weeks. Presumably it will be the same in as good as every (NATO)-country.

The emergency laws introduced in Norway are conspicuously similar to a highly unusual law proposal for increased government powers in case of a civil emergency from September 2019, now they have been rushed through parliament.

paul ,

Don't worry, folks, pandemics are profitable.
Bezos dumped $3 billion of stock just before the crash.
Makes Feinstein's paltry $6 million look like chump change.

Boeing want $60 billion, the airlines want $50 billion (for starters), $150 billion for hotels, a trillion or so for shopping malls. A few billion here, a few billion there, and pretty soon you're talking serious oney.
$3 trillion to date, but have patience, it's early days yet.

We can all rest easy.
The billionaires will emerge with their wealth more than doubled, just like last time.
Certainly puts my mind at rest.

Savorywill ,

We can rest easy because the government will just print more money. Plenty to go around! Every one gets $3000 plus insurance covers their absent paychecks, so everything is back to normal, money wise, and no one has to do anything. This can probably go on forever, until trucking companies also go out of business, so no food or supplies can be transported into NYC, and then the shit will well and truly hit the fan. I don't think AOC's green new deal will be of much use in such a situation But, hopefully, it won't come to that.

xdream ,

Somewhere further down this thread somebody used the word:

Plandemic.

Could I suggest another variant on this theme a mutant perhaps:

Scamdemic.

[Mar 25, 2020] Now that the panic's been hyped up, there's no way out. For reasons of how democracy works, the panic will be appeased

When experts directly or indirectly have monetary interest in certain outcome they are not expect, they are lobbyists.
Mar 25, 2020 | www.unz.com

AaronInMVD says: Website Show Comment March 24, 2020 at 12:01 am GMT 100 Words @Anon For reasons of math and historic examples of how viral pandemics work in mammals, the fastest way out would be to do nothing and ignore the virus so that it burns through quickly. This happens with surprising frequency when the folks picking strain for the year's flu vaccine guess wrong. And, no business is non-essential to the people depending on it for their livelihood. So far Most people getting sick with the COVID-19 get unpleasantly sick or don't realize they were sick. 99% of the fatalities are in the morbidly old or morbidly ill.

Now that the panic's been hyped up, there's no way out. For reasons of how democracy works, the panic will be appeased. Expensively. Very Expensively.

More will suffer and experience pre-mature mortality due to the economic consequences of the panic than than virus itself, because the economic damage here is going to last far longer.

[Mar 25, 2020] Chinese government services personnel had been redeployed into affected areeas and was put in roles far from their usual ranges of expertise. He saw a woman giving instructions to medical personnel on how to wear medical gowns. He assumed she herself was a doctor; she turned out to be a receptionist.

Mar 25, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Jen , Mar 25 2020 0:27 utc | 117

Arby @ 114:

I was reading an article in a specialist medical newspaper at the doctor's surgery this morning while waiting to pick up my blood test results. The article was written by a doctor who was part of an Australian medical delegation visiting China recently. Among other things the doctor mentioned was that government services personnel had been redeployed into other areas away from their usual ranges of expertise. He saw a woman giving instructions to medical personnel on how to wear medical gowns. He assumed she herself was a doctor; she turned out to be a receptionist.

[Mar 25, 2020] Sun helps but not absolutly

Mar 25, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

TJ , Mar 23 2020 21:02 utc | 67

@54 Per/Norway

" The second thing that's good about it is the sun. Ultraviolet light kills viruses."

The disease is spreading in the southern hemisphere which is in summer with much higher UV just as rapidly as the northern hemisphere which is in winter with much less UV. So the data at least in this case says no. BTW she retired in 2008, and she seems to have done some impressive work in the past, though as they say in the small print of adverts for investments, past performance is no predictor of future performance.

[Mar 24, 2020] To many question about CDC behaviour and estimates

Mar 24, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

abierno , Mar 24 2020 0:46 utc | 120

Re Cyril @10
I think the CDC numbers of 160 to 200 million infected are inflated (remember they are projections, estimations, as are the German numbers)

From other internet sources: China total 81,093 or 56 total cases per million; death 3,270 recovered 72,703
US total 43,651 or 132 total cases per million; death 545

Given that a University of Washington public health researcher identified Covid19 in the general population in February, we have been harboring this virus for at least two months if not longer; patient zero from Snohomish Wa was not the first and clearly, person to person transmission was evident in February.

When she reported this to the CDC she was told to stand down immediately. Again, Why? Why bankrupt our working classes with 9 to 12 week lockdowns rather than getting hospitals, clinics, and families the safety products they need to move around the community (e.g. to work) - gloves, masks, sanitizer, gowns, etc. The lockdown appears to be a drastic move to compensate for a public health catastrophe as regards preparedness, and is ongoing insofar as the aforementioned products are not available to the public. Also Gilead has paused provision of their HIV drug and supplies of chloroquinine, once readily available are now hard to find. Again, why? And, not surprisingly, access to tests is limited even for our exceptional frontline medical staffs. Furthermore, no statistics are available regarding the reliability or validity of the existing tests - major numbers of false positives or negatives can have drastic consequences. Why?


Allen , Mar 24 2020 1:29 utc | 127

Many doctors have started to connect the dots.

Not only case correlation with coronavirus is not causation of their deaths but also as mentioned all the tests are made not among random population as they should to eliminate methodological data bias but among those who are symptomatic or been in proximity of those diagnosed or symptomatic of Coronavirus.

And hence numbers derived from such sample are likely questionable as I will elaborate later.

There is another aspect of likely misclassification of early cases starting in December 2019 and January 2020 as a flu while may indicate mortality rate of SARS-Cov2 similar to that of 2019-2020 seasonal flu pandemic we are still under. Here is excerpt from congressional testimony as reported by Counterpunch :

Congressman Harley Rouda asked him this: "So, we could have people in the United States dying for what appears to be influenza, when in fact it could be the coronavirus or COVID-19? Redfield replied that, "Some cases have been actually diagnosed that way in the United States to date."

The revelation passed without further questioning. The U.S. media paid no attention. News services in China pounced on the statement.

Epidemiologists ought to have been interested in the timing of the epidemic's onset in the United States. Vagueness on the matter, as suggested by Redfield's testimony, betrays a remarkable lack of scientific curiosity.

What the public knows is that the first case of imported Coronavirus showed up on January 21. The first cases of possible community-acquired coronavirus appeared on February 26. On February 14 the CDC indicated persons with influenza-like symptoms would be tested for COVID 19 in various U.S. cities.


The results of any testing weren't made public, although Redfield's testimony may allude to them.

The possibility emerges that U.S. people were being infected in January, not long after Chinese authorities on December 31, 2019 informed the World Health Organization of an outbreak of a new form of coronavirus infection. Suspicion prevails in China that the epidemic may have manifested first in someplace other than China.

https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/03/20/fighting-covid-19-in-cuba-china-and-the-united-states/

This lack of curiosity smells rather like political cover-up as other numerous reports suggest.

Another mystery is inability by Chinese scientists to find patient Number One who supposedly contracted SARS-Cov2 from yet to be identified and found animal in which organism supposed fusion happen of two old and known viruses from Betabatcoronavirus group one of them was original SARS-Cov of epidemic of 2002-2004 in China and 29 other countries.

From CNN:

Comparative genomic analyses have shown that SARS-CoV-2 belongs to the group of Betacoronaviruses and that it is very close to SARS-CoV, responsible for an epidemic of acute pneumonia which appeared in November 2002 in the Chinese province of Guangdong and then spread to 29 countries in 2003. A total of 8,098 cases were recorded, including 774 deaths. It is known that bats of the genus Rhinolophus (potentially several cave species) were the reservoir of this virus and that a small carnivore, the palm civet (Paguma larvata), may have served as an intermediate host between bats and the first human cases...

From AP.

The source of the virus is actually not known. The patient number 1, the person who first carried the virus, has not been found. The Wuhan wet market where exotic animals are sold was not the source of the outbreak:

The paper, written by a large group of Chinese researchers from several institutions, offers details about the first 41 hospitalized patients who had confirmed infections with what has been dubbed 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). In the earliest case, the patient became ill on 1 December 2019 and had no reported link to the seafood market, the authors report.

"No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases," they state. Their data also show that, in total, 13 of the 41 cases had no link to the marketplace. "That's a big number, 13, with no link," says Daniel Lucey, an infectious disease specialist at Georgetown University.

Another issue is so called "excess mortality" due to pandemic and here over 3000 deaths in China in last about 5 months barely registers on mortality gauge as it is moderated among other factors by deaths attributed to flu which in China averaged at least 60,000-100,000 a year increasing as population is aging.

In US alone Flu pandemic is still in full swing with about 30,000 dead already in 2019-2020 season to end in two months.

The same lack of evident excess mortality is showing in Europe in the midst of coronavirus pandemic.

Here is website that tracks EU deaths based of government death records.


http://euromomo.eu/

Some doctors as well as former public heath officials like Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg from Schleswig-Holstein in Germany staring questioning lethality of the SARS-Cov2 and methodology of calculating mortality rates not based on scientific principle of random testing following distribution of age and locales of population at large and acquiring sample of minimum 7% (22 millions tested in US ) of entire population a week to be a representative sample of pandemic development and population response to it including infection rates, recovery and death rates.

Such or similar statistical modeling of flu pandemic produces average mortality rate of 0.1% while locally and within old age groups it can be much higher even near 1% similar to current numbers for Coronavirus calculated using not random sample but mostly volunteer, higher probability of infection sample groups in hospitals or aware of being potentially exposed to virus in US, in the range only of about 50,000 total to date, far less than anything that would scientifically provide mortality rate with any meaningful statistical confidence.

Glasgow scientists study between 2013-2017 found between 7% and 14% percent admitted to hospitals with respiratory problems had been infected with coronavirus among many other identified viruses like flu, rhino and unidentified viruses.

Additional points were raised about what turned out to be internal research purposed Coronavirus test frantically adopted by WHO.

The test itself coming from Berlin's Charite hospital that was targeting original SARS-Cov of 2002-2004 epidemic (not SARS-Cov2 ) to see if contagion was spread in Germany.

And hence it is not entirely clear how many false positive results are coming from the fact that original SARS-Cov already spread around the world (documented in 29 countries) and exists in many communities controlled but not completely eradicated by newly acquired immunity to SARS-Cov.

CDC and corporate labs in US are allowed using their own tests often classified or patented making correct interpretation of those tests by doctors and public likely incompatible, extremely difficult sometimes nearly impossible to interpret adding to confusion.


All of those serious questions combined with utter lack of desperately needed funding for medical research and remediation is scandalous and under circumstances uncalled for and detrimental to society while the $3 trillion corporate bailout in itself questions entire pandemic narrative as supposedly calamitous of biblical proportions supposedly justifying complete shutting down of economy and society under authoritarian extra constitutional rules.

People must be rational by scientifically analyzing hard data and apply analysis of scientific material whatever outcome and not succumb to anxiety or panic based on fate in judgments or predictions of corrupted fraudulent authorities including corporate medical authorities who serve only class interests- they surely ain't the working class interests and have no concern for public health.

[Mar 24, 2020] Italian medics are doing military triaging and medical workers are about to collapse.

Mar 24, 2020 | www.unz.com

John Johnson , says: Show Comment March 24, 2020 at 3:47 am GMT

@AaronInMVD Yes, being sick sucks. Just would many of these people who are sick and suffering have gone to the hospital if it wasn't for the damned panic.

In Italy the hospitals are completely overwhelmed and it has nothing to do with panic.

They are doing military triaging and medical workers are about to collapse. They have more hospital beds per capita than the US so we definitely don't want to end up like them.

In the US there are probably people showing up at hospitals for tests but that is the fault of the government (including Democrats) for not getting enough tests ready. Even today there aren't enough tests and it is unlikely they will meet demand within weeks if not months.

Democrats are blaming Trump but they were the ones calling travel bans racist and they didn't have anything to say about tests when it was starting to spread two months ago. They were focused on the primary and getting rid of Bernie.

[Mar 24, 2020] #Coronavirus - Israeli Defense Minister Gives A Speech

His main advice is to separate old people from young and wait until young people will be immune to the virus.
Mar 24, 2020 | www.youtube.com

Georgios Paraskeva , 1 day ago

'' want it or not the rest of the population is gonna get the Coronavirus''...wow !!! you are are sooo sure about it ...i bet you know thinks that we don't , probably you knew this since last year

Devrat1 , 2 days ago

Very informative .. Thank you and I agree almost totally.. only thing that I find is an error is immunity to virus. Immunity will be there with young and active people. The virus can still be transmitted. Older generation will continue to be susceptible to the virus unless we have a medicine for corona virus.

Valkyrie angel , 15 hours ago

Haha No grandma hugs grandson.. once the epidemic over grandma and grandpa come out... its way so light to express... cute..

[Mar 24, 2020] When shown to be incompetent, US leadership lies.

Mar 24, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

kiwiklown , Mar 24 2020 3:51 utc | 160

Posted by: occupatio | Mar 23 2020 18:33 utc | 12
"No, China didn't cover up the Covid-19 outbreak: An analysis"

Thanks. I've saved the article for when it is memory-holed.

Crisis reveals character... the nature of people.

When shown to be incompetent, US leadership lies.

Russia says the US leadership is not "agreement-capable".

Less politely, I say they are dishonourable, shameless, ghouls who have lost their souls.

What does it profit a leader when the world's TV cameras shine on you, but you have lost your soul?


SharonM , Mar 24 2020 1:41 utc | 129

@97 Richard Steven Hack

"The number of idiots everywhere on the Internet proclaiming the following:
1) The virus won't prove to be any more dangerous than ordinary flu..."

Yeah sure, we should have just shut up and believed...

Russia interfered in the election
Russia invaded Crimea
Russia invaded Georgia
Iran is making nuclear bombs
The Skripals were poisoned by Russian agents
Assad is using chemical weapons
Saddam has weapons of mass destruction

"etc, etc., ad nauseum.
I could go on and on. The number of people who just *have to have an opinion* is staggering. And they'll argue that they're right until the cows come home."

@99 Michael Weddington

"The virus deniers here remind me of the global warming deniers."

Why not holocaust deniers? In fact, since you didn't say holocaust deniers you must be an antisemite holocaust denier nazi, right? It's not like you two are at CNN's website, you're in the alternative media, where we actually questions things instead of just having blind faith.

ted01 , Mar 24 2020 3:41 utc | 159
SharonM @129

Nailed it Sharon.

Suddenly the corporate mainstream media have become the epitome of truth, honesty and integrity.

kiwiklown , Mar 24 2020 4:21 utc | 164
jackrabbit @33 -- "Coronavirus Drives the U.S. and China Deeper Into Global Power Struggle"

I would rephrase that to "US uses coronavirus to deepen global power struggle against China"

NYT -- "These officials warn that a fast-growing China, under Mr. Xi's increasingly authoritarian rule, seeks military, economic and technological domination over the United States and its allies."

What weasel-speak! Repeating a big enough lie often enough, and you get distracted citizens to fall in line behind you for when you launch a sneak attack on China. This is nothing but a case of projection by parties who are themselves seeking to dominate the world, the better to eat other people's lunches.

[Mar 24, 2020] Most humans were busy working and stay afoot to question what network TV the fishwraps told them about 911 or coronavirus. The level of detachment from reality due intensive tabloid indoctrination is simply amazing.

Mar 24, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

A User , Mar 24 2020 8:29 utc | 194

FFS can we stop with the endless debate about who did what to whom in the early days of this virus' existence?
Not only are such debates entirely pointless because it is out among us now, it is pointless because whether they want it or not a full investigation including non-fiction backtrace is inevitable if we the people who look past the lies, play our cards right.

It has been said that like 911 the coronavirus pandemic will be a game-changer, that is the world will be different after the lockdowns, lies and beat ups than it was before.

There is however one major difference. Most humans were busy working and looking to keep their families going to do more than lap up what network TV & the fishwraps told them about 911. The far from reality attitudes too many still hold, date from that intensive tabloid indoctrination.

This time is pretty much opposite, people are stuck at home with too much time to think, but not enough they believe they can do.

If ever there was a time when it was possible to assist our fellow humans to see the world as it is rather than how the media tells them it is, that time is right now.

Many humans are already pissed about this; plans they had made for their 2020 are kyboshed, no one really trusts politicians anymore so everyone is asking themselves if this enforced income cut is really as essential as the pols claim it is(sure some nations have trickled a little down for the durationbut even there no one is gonna be better off, everyone normal is going to be copping an income cut).
That means most people are going to be somewhat resistant to the usual bland pol platitudes.
Have no fear the neolibs see the danger and will be pumping out the bulldust 24/7, the difference this time is Jo/Joe Blow finally has the time to consider other points of view, especially those which are expressed entertainingly rather than didactically, so WTF are people wasting time and energy arguing the toss about matters of interest to so few other humans?

I'm germinating a notion of what I am going to try to combat the tosh being pumped out by the elite it would be great if other humans considered the same as I'm certain most will come up with far better means to help others see than what I dream up.

[Mar 24, 2020] An argument to be made that we are destroying economies and lives (and possibly killing far more people than Covid-19) in an hysterical over-reaction based on flawed modelling and sparse and unreliable data?...

Mar 24, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org
Allen | Mar 23 2020 20:33 utc | 55

Allen , Mar 24 2020 1:29 utc | 127
(Coronavirus is a fake emergency))

I've also pondered the question of whether the 'cure' is worse than the 'disease' in net/overall effect. However, it's important to remember that the reason the pandemic has been declared an emergency IN EVERY COUNTRY, whether Commie or Fake Democracy, is that it's making people sick enough to require hospital treatment. And these patients are ADDITIONAL patients which the health system hadn't planned for. When the flood of COVID-19 patients eases, then hospitals will return to normal levels of bed vacancy - nationwide.

For your preferred theory to be true, it would be necessary to prove that many, or most, of these extra patients are faking the seriousness of their illness AND the medics are too uneducated/inexperienced to tell the difference. You'd probably also have to prove that there are lots of people would rather be in hospital, pretending to be sick, than anywhere but hospital...

Italy had an excess number of deaths attributed to influenza of 25,000 in the 2016/17 season, the last year numbers are available, what we are seeing at present is not an aberration from recent years as that 16/17 season was representative of recent trends. This is directly as a result of the severely degraded environment in which they live. As others have pointed out both the air and water quality in that region is horrendous- as it has become in recent years in Wuhan, Madrid and Tehran. One has to be beyond obstinate not to understand this and connect the dots.

At present there is great uncertainty as to deaths from Covid versus deaths with Covid. In some reporting Covid deaths were identified using a case definition that included pulmonary disease e.g

This distinction is crucial as it points to causal factors that allowed the virus to replicate, to flourish- and disputes the narrative that the corona virus (which BTW is decidedly not novel only this mutation is which brings us to another discussion) is the causal factor. The causal factors are the specific modes of production that created horrendous living conditions in these areas to begin with (most of the planet by now) which have destroyed people's abilities (immune system e.g.) to ward off disease.

By focusing solely on the corona virus and considering it to be the causal factor this allows the capitalist class off the hook for being the very ones who have created the conditions for all sorts of diseases to proliferate. Further by keeping the focus solely on corona history tells us that the capitalists will not only use this for any draconian measures they deem "essential" but also a means to explore all manner of profiteering- the "next magic cure" (for the disease they created) being the most obvious pot of gold.

If you want to pursue a more analytical line of inquiry start by examining the severely degraded air quality in Madrid, Wuhan, Tehran and the Po River Valley and the accompanying health problems in those areas and start connecting some dots.

Some links:

Richard , Mar 24 2020 7:08 utc | 183

In the flu season 2015/2016, Italy reported 20,259 deaths attributable to influenza (just as now, these were almost all in the 65+ age group). (Source: Journal of Infectious Diseases)...and nobody proposed shutting down the world then. If it's now being suggested the virus has been around since November then the numbers don't add up even more (i.e. Italy's Covid-19 deaths so far are around the 6,000 mark which would make the virus far less deadly than the 2015/16 flu).

Is there not an argument to be made (as says John P.A. Ioannidis -- professor of medicine and professor of epidemiology and population health at Stanford University) that we are destroying economies and lives (and possibly killing far more people than Covid-19) in an hysterical over-reaction based on flawed modelling and sparse and unreliable data?...

https://richardhennerley.com/2020/03/23/enough-of-the-coronavirus-doom-porn-already/

Hoarsewhisperer , Mar 24 2020 7:11 utc | 184

Posted by: Allen | Mar 23 2020 20:33 utc | 55

[Mar 24, 2020] Push back against virus fearmongering

Mar 24, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

SharonM , Mar 24 2020 1:41 utc | 129

@97 Richard Steven Hack

"The number of idiots everywhere on the Internet proclaiming the following:
1) The virus won't prove to be any more dangerous than ordinary flu..."

Yeah sure, we should have just shut up and believed...

Russia interfered in the election
Russia invaded Crimea
Russia invaded Georgia
Iran is making nuclear bombs
The Skripals were poisoned by Russian agents
Assad is using chemical weapons
Saddam has weapons of mass destruction

"etc, etc., ad nauseum.
I could go on and on. The number of people who just *have to have an opinion* is staggering. And they'll argue that they're right until the cows come home."

@99 Michael Weddington

"The virus deniers here remind me of the global warming deniers."

Why not holocaust deniers? In fact, since you didn't say holocaust deniers you must be an antisemite holocaust denier nazi, right? It's not like you two are at CNN's website, you're in the alternative media, where we actually questions things instead of just having blind faith.

[Mar 24, 2020] She is at a private hospital and this is at the public hospital. no medical staff working with this patient wore protective gear.

Mar 24, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Peter AU1 , Mar 24 2020 2:13 utc | 140

Talking to my daughter this morning. Husband and wife returns from overseas. No testing an quarantine for people coming . They go home do whatever, husband feels a bit crook, tests positive for coronavirus. Hospitalized, on a ventilated and will soon die. She is at a private hospital and this is at the public hospital. no medical staff working with this patient wore protective gear.
I had thought we where following China closely on dealing with this but man was I wrong. Total fuckwits collecting seashells on the seashore as the tsunami approaches.
Sent my daughter links to the pdf handbook put out by the Chinese doctors who worked on the frontlines. Covers PPE and much else. She is now passing it around to the other nurses.
Doctors in Australia had started using chloroquine if they could not obtain other antivirals. Apparently the government has now stopped them from doing this.

[Mar 24, 2020] A case story of two female 29 year old Chinese health workers, one survives, one dies.

Mar 24, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Vig , Mar 24 2020 6:52 utc | 180

Pundita's here is a case story of two female 29 year old Chinese health workers, one survives, one dies.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/13/world/asia/coronavirus-death-life.html

[Mar 24, 2020] So why should people who already see a max of 5 persons a week be under house arrest? Masks are evidently a solution

Notable quotes:
"... Instead the French authorities are now trying to prepare people for work by saying that people should not go out at all because when they do they touch the left button, the doors etc. ..."
"... They can just wear gloves and clean up whatever they touch with alcohol, no? Why aren't such cheap things not distributed widely, household by household? ..."
Mar 24, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Mina , Mar 24 2020 9:54 utc | 200

Another interesting feature of the shock strategy currently applied is that until planes and trains and stadiums were not plugged off, one can imagine that the virus was spreading on a much bigger scale than without these going on as usual.

So why should people who already see a max of 5 persons a week (close enough) be under house arrest? masks are evidently a solution.

Instead the French authorities are now trying to prepare people for work by saying that people should not go out at all because when they do they touch the left button, the doors etc.

But what of asking people for responsibility?

They can just wear gloves and clean up whatever they touch with alcohol, no? Why aren't such cheap things not distributed widely, household by household?

The French are doing worse because they have no community planning, unlike Belgium, the Netherlands, the UK and other northern countries. I haven't heard anyone on French media say that the municipalities or district social centres could play a role in better mapping the needs.

It seems to be entirely on the shoulders of our super-centralized gov and the hospitals! With the results we see (and we are actually doing not so bad: 5 % of the positive seem to die, vs 10% in Spain and Italy -using the figures given here

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest)

[Mar 24, 2020] COVID-19 Symptoms Could Include Loss Of Smell And Taste

Mar 24, 2020 | www.youtube.com

There's growing concern among health officials about so called silent spreaders, people who are infected with the coronavirus, but aren't sick. Now some UK doctors say there may be a clue to who's carrying it and they want the loss of smell and taste added to the list of symptoms.

[Mar 24, 2020] Jack Ma placed a message on Twitter regarding availability of a Handbook related to Coronavirus for medical workers and anyone else who is interested.

Mar 24, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Tom_LX , Mar 24 2020 7:01 utc | 182

Jack Ma placed a message on Twitter regarding availability of a Handbook related to Coronavirus for medical workers and anyone else who is interested.

Jack Ma Handbook

[Mar 24, 2020] NYT reports that loss of sense of smll night be an important symptom that you are infected with the corornovirus

Mar 24, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

blues , Mar 24 2020 4:32 utc | 165

This may be an important new clue:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ //
Lost Sense of Smell May Be Peculiar Clue to Coronavirus Infection
The New York Times - March 22, 2020

A mother who was infected with the coronavirus couldn't smell her baby's full diaper. Cooks who can usually name every spice in a restaurant dish can't smell curry or garlic, and food tastes bland. Others say they can't pick up the sweet scent of shampoo or the foul odor of kitty litter.

Anosmia, the loss of sense of smell, and ageusia, an accompanying diminished sense of taste, have emerged as peculiar telltale signs of Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, and possible markers of infection.

On Friday, British ear, nose and throat doctors, citing reports from colleagues around the world, called on adults who lose their senses of smell to isolate themselves for seven days, even if they have no other symptoms, to slow the disease's spread. The published data is limited, but doctors are concerned enough to raise warnings.
// ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[Mar 24, 2020] Half Of All Americans Have Been Ordered To 'Stay At Home' As More Countries Impose Mass Quarantines To Fight COVID-19

Notable quotes:
"... This is specifically about coronavirus testing. In fact, CDC very much screwed up -- its test had a contaminated assay, the negative control, which made it unusable. ..."
Mar 24, 2020 | www.zerohedge.com

By CNN's count, at least 13 states and 13 municipalities in the US have ordered 144,522,931 people to stay home as a result of the pandemic, according to data compiled by CNN using US Census population estimates.

Update (1324ET): President Trump on Tuesday once again tried to deny that his administration dropped the ball on the coronavirus response, while saying he would like to see the country re-open by Easter.

Of course, the CDC's botched handling of the tests has been well-documented, and the fact that nobody in the administration acting to overule the CDC and start stockpiling tests from elsewhere might be remembered as one of the administration's biggest screwups in handling the crisis.

Trump: "We did not screw up."

This is specifically about coronavirus testing. In fact, CDC very much screwed up -- its test had a contaminated assay, the negative control, which made it unusable.

World Health Organization offered us test it had been using in China.

We refused.

-- Alexander Nazaryan (@alexnazaryan) March 24, 2020

[Mar 24, 2020] The Coronavirus's Spread is the Federal Bureaucracy's Failure by Matt Purple

Mar 24, 2020 | www.theamericanconservative.com
| The truth is always less glamorous than the perception. And the truth about 9/11 is that it was first and foremost a failure of bureaucracy.

As early as spring 2000, the CIA had learned that two of the future hijackers had traveled to Malaysia for an al-Qaeda summit. Both men had U.S. visas yet the information was never acted on. In California, the pair roomed with an undercover FBI agent. In Oklahoma, one of them was pulled over for speeding . Mere days before the attacks, they were hunkered down in Laurel, Maryland, not far from the National Security Agency's headquarters.

They were never stopped, nor were several of the other soon-to-be hijackers who were cited for traffic violations and raised eyebrows at flight schools, more Rocky and Mugsy than SPECTRE. After 9/11, a congressional investigation found that the attacks could have been prevented were it not for FBI and CIA ineptitude. According to that and subsequent reports, the agencies had failed to share information with each other, gotten bogged down in turf wars, and lacked outside-the-box thinking.

They did this because this is how bureaucracies work. The state isn't some enchanted repository of our national priorities; it's a sprawling network of individuals, who, like the rest of us, tend to place their own interests before the common good, show reluctance in the face of innovation, cling to rote procedure even under extraordinary circumstances, abuse their power. And just as the predictable failures of the security bureaucracy allowed 9/11 to happen, so too are the predictable failures of the medical bureaucracy enabling the coronavirus to spread.

Start with the feds' delayed reaction to the virus's outbreak in Washington State. There, the first case of COVID-19 in America was confirmed all the way back in January, and an infectious disease expert in Seattle, Dr. Helen Chu, had an idea. According to the New York Times , her lab had been using nasal swabs to research the flu; were they to repurpose the tests, they could check for the coronavirus. The team quickly sought the approval of the CDC, which kicked them over to the FDA. The FDA then denied their request, citing both privacy concerns over the swab results and the fact that the labs were not certified for clinical purposes. After weeks of the agency refusing to budge, the team decided to do that most American of things: ignore the government. They tested for coronavirus and found a positive. The bureaucrats promptly told the team to stop; they later relented but only in part.

Those FDA rules may be in place for good reason -- patient privacy must be protected, labs must be classified correctly -- but such rationales should quickly fall to the floor when an epidemic is raging. Because they didn't, Chu's team was forced to waste valuable time. And even those laboratories approved for clinical work were having a tough go of it. They still had to apply with the feds for emergency approval to develop their own tests, and were being stymied. "This virus is faster than the FDA," grumbled one researcher to the Times . So are turtles with polio. It's worth pointing out that all this transpired well after the government had declared the coronavirus a public health emergency.

The root of the problem seems to be that the bureaucracy underestimated just how widely the coronavirus would spread. Initial tests were limited to those who had just returned from China. Warnings from local officials that the virus was proliferating were ignored. The CDC, meanwhile, developed its own test, but the kits were quickly determined to be faulty and retracted. Precious weeks slipped by. Had measures been implemented, had people started social distancing earlier and the infected been identified and quarantined faster, the coronavirus could have been better contained. Instead the FDA tried to control the process, only to find that it couldn't. Private labs were brought in too late and struggled to meet demand, forcing them to ration tests. It wasn't until last week that the FDA started permitting companies to market tests without federal blessing, though they still must get the agency's approval within two weeks.

The process remains hamstrung by that most bureaucratic of problems: lack of coordination. Only whereas prior to 9/11 it was agencies failing to coordinate with each other, now it's the government failing to coordinate the supply chain. The labs, the medical providers, the supply manufacturers -- all need to be in harmony in order to develop tests and distribute badly needed equipment. Instead hospitals warn of ventilator shortages . Masks are running dangerously low, with Vice President Mike Pence announcing only last weekend that the government had at last placed an order for hundreds of millions more. A run on supplies following the FDA's belated easing of restrictions on private labs caused shortages, according to the Wall Street Journal . Tom Rogan at the Washington Examiner reports that pallets of medical equipment are sitting unused in warehouses because the FDA hasn't loosened its inspection protocols .

Contrast all this with South Korea, which streamlined its medical bureaucracy following the MERS outbreak in 2015. There, officials sounded the alarm in January and one week later a private lab had developed a test. Today, about 10,000 South Koreans are tested daily , many of them at drive-through diagnosis centers, compared to just a small fraction of that number in the United States.

Yes, the fish rots from the head down. Donald Trump's complacent reaction to the virus set a terrible example. His pronouncement that the outbreak was "like a miracle, it will disappear" now sounds insane. Yet the president can also only reach so far down into the bureaucracy; some of those gears need to align on their own. And they clearly failed to do so. This also can't be blamed on a lack of funding, given that Trump's supposed cuts to the medical bureaucracy never actually happened . Amid a massive federal budget and trillion-dollar deficits, we're paying more than enough to expect the government to do better than this.

I know we've convinced ourselves that the country would run better if only the damned libertarians would get out of the way, but it may be that the real problems are less trite than that. And one of them is clearly that the government has mummified itself in its own red tape. This happened despite the bright minds running its departments, human genome pioneer Francis Collins at the NIH and the oncologist Stephen Hahn at the FDA. So now the bureaucracy is taking a more deregulatory approach, lifting roadblocks to private labs, easing restrictions on trucking, lifting barriers to telehealth. They're about two months too late. Those early weeks were critical and the feds spent them methodically tripping over their own banana peels.

After 9/11, the nation consoled itself by establishing a new government agency with a fancy name, the Department of Homeland Security. Anyone who's ever talked to a DHS employee knows the confusion and bureaucratic jostling that reigned there for years. Instead of doing the same, once the coronavirus has passed, Congress should take a cue from another post-September 11 authority: the 9/11 Commission. Establish a body to investigate the government's blunders. Mimic South Korea and clear away the clutter. Because this time the costs of bureaucracy aren't just abstract notions of productivity and GDP; they're human lives. about the author Matt Purple is the managing editor of The American Conservative . email leave a comment

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[Mar 24, 2020] Exponencial growth of the virus is not susptainable

Notable quotes:
"... "We showed that it was precisely the patients with the most acute symptoms who are the most infectious, both because of the high viral load [meaning, the amount of a virus in one's body] and also because of the increase in the number of encounters between people: The acute patients were dying, so everyone came to take their leave from them," Yamin says. "I was pleased that Liberia adopted our recommendations and isolated those who were seriously ill. In retrospect, we know that that new policy helped curb the epidemic." ..."
"... the coronavirus can be expected to disappear from this region with the same dizzying speed with which it entered our lives ..."
"... But in practice, the most rapid mutations occur in animals, and they only infect us then, and obviously it's less probable that we will be infected again by a bat in the near future. ..."
"... "The actual number of people who are sick with the virus in South Korea is at least double what's being reported, so the chance of dying is at least twice as low, standing at about 0.45 percent – very far from the World Health Organization's [global mortality] figure of 3.4 percent. And that's already a reason for cautious optimism." ..."
"... "And Netanyahu talked about a mortality rate of between 2 percent and 4 percent. And do you know what's most absurd? That in the final analysis [U.S. President Donald] Trump was right . Not that the coronavirus is just plain flu – it absolutely isn't – but as he put it: 'This is just my hunch – way under 1 percent' [will die].' ..."
"... At some stage, we will have to resume a regular routine, and then the R0 will stabilize at 2 again. Effectively, we are delaying the inevitable. I have no criticism of the decisions made until now. On the contrary: With such a large area of uncertainty, Israel's decision makers are considering not only a reasonable scenario but also a margin of safety. ..."
"... "It's not only a function of hygiene, it's mainly a function of contact between people. Picture the average old person. How many different people does he encounter in a day? And what is the nature of those encounters? The older we get, the less we caress and kiss others. Also, children constitute the only age group that comes into contact with all other age groups – not just theirs. That's why it is the key population in spreading respiratory diseases." ..."
Mar 24, 2020 | www.haaretz.com

Dr. Yamin is an engineer, not a physician. But in 2008, when he was a graduate student at Ben-Gurion University in Be'er Sheva, a certain research study caught his eye.

"It was an analysis of a dynamic model for the spread of smallpox," Yamin, 38, says. "The researchers used tools from game theory. It was so interesting that I decided to conduct a similar study on influenza – which turned into a doctoral thesis on disease-spread models.

"If, 40 or 50 years ago, epidemiology researchers came exclusively from the field of medicine, today we understand that in order to predict the spread of diseases, it's also necessary to understand how humans behave as a collective, to be able to analyze big data and to have the ability to create models and perform mathematical simulations – and for that you need engineers."

Yamin encountered his first real epidemiological crisis while doing postdoctoral work at the the Center of Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis at Yale University's school of public health.

"At Yale we worked for three weeks, with almost no sleep, to create models based on engineering tools for the spread of Ebola. The dilemma of the Liberian health ministry regarded whom to prioritize, given a serious shortage of isolation facilities. The Liberians assumed that it would make more sense to quarantine those who were ill with less serious symptoms, because the others could not be saved in any case.

"We showed that it was precisely the patients with the most acute symptoms who are the most infectious, both because of the high viral load [meaning, the amount of a virus in one's body] and also because of the increase in the number of encounters between people: The acute patients were dying, so everyone came to take their leave from them," Yamin says. "I was pleased that Liberia adopted our recommendations and isolated those who were seriously ill. In retrospect, we know that that new policy helped curb the epidemic."

Yamin currently heads the Laboratory for Epidemic Modeling and Analysis in TAU's engineering faculty. His primary field of work is development of models for the spread of infectious diseases, with an emphasis on viruses responsible for respiratory ailments, such as flu and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus), which causes bronchitis. He is actually somewhat optimistic about the models he has developed for the spread of the coronavirus , which is also a respiratory disease.

"The big, open question is what the chance is of dying from the virus," Yamin explains.

"When you ask epidemiologists what the most important datum is concerning a virus, they will say it's the rate of the basic reproductive ratio, or R0 [often called "R nought"] – the average number of people a sick person will infect. That's an interesting question, but a theoretical one.

"The R0 of measles is 12, meaning that each person who is ill with measles infects 12 people on average. However, only 5 percent of the population can actually be infected, because most of us have been immunized or had measles in the past. So that is the upper limit of its spread."

But we know that the R0 of the coronavirus is 2, and we still don't know whether anyone is naturally immune to the disease.

Yamin: "The overwhelming majority of people are apparently not immune, because it's not a common disease. After all, there is no precedent for such an infectious and violent type of virus from the corona family, so it's safe to assume that the majority has not been exposed to the virus before this and that they can be infected. However, that's not to say that the majority of the population will actually contract the disease.

"The basic principle is that a virus with an R0 of 2 in a non-immune population can be expected to infect 50 percent of the population. After that the R0 will reach a value of 1 or less, and the disease will be contained. By the way, it will recede in a converging exponential; in other words, the coronavirus can be expected to disappear from this region with the same dizzying speed with which it entered our lives."

But we don't know for certain whether a person can be infected twice.

"No, but with the majority of viruses, if you're infected and you have recovered, you won't be re-infected, because of immunological memory. And if you are infected again, the symptoms will be less acute the second time. The exception to the rule is influenza: Its mutation frequency is so high that you can be infected by it year after year. Last year alone, the flu underwent 17 mutations. Whereas the last time we heard about corona was 17 years ago, with SARS. In other words, the coronavirus did not undergo mutations at the same frequency as the flu. Of course, the mutations themselves are a function of the number of infections: The more infections there are, the greater the likelihood that mutations will occur. But in practice, the most rapid mutations occur in animals, and they only infect us then, and obviously it's less probable that we will be infected again by a bat in the near future.

"By the way, viral mutations are more frequent in bats, whose immune system is astonishingly weak, while their social network is extensive and characterized by a lot of interaction."

So we're talking about maximum rate of infection – that is, of becoming a carrier – of 50 percent. That's still a lot of patients, a lot of hospitalizations and mainly a lot of deaths.

"Again, the most interesting issue for decision makers is the mortality rate. When we look at the dry data, we see a very high mortality rate, of 4 to 7 percent, in countries like Italy and Spain, alongside far lower numbers in countries like Germany and South Korea.

"And then there's China, though it's very difficult to believe the numbers coming out of there – and in any event no country in the West can allow itself to adopt the measures that China adopted to contain the spread. Now ask yourself: How do you check the mortality rate in all those countries? You take the total number of deaths and divide it by the total of reported patients."

So the research is biased.

"Very biased. If I can only carry out few tests, I will test those who have the highest chance of becoming ill, and then, when I check the mortality rate among them, I will get very high numbers. But there is one country we can learn from: South Korea. South Korea has been coping with corona for a long time, more than most Western countries, and they lead in the number of tests per capita. Therefore, the official mortality rate there is 0.9 percent. But even in South Korea, not all the infected were tested – most have very mild symptoms.

"The actual number of people who are sick with the virus in South Korea is at least double what's being reported, so the chance of dying is at least twice as low, standing at about 0.45 percent – very far from the World Health Organization's [global mortality] figure of 3.4 percent. And that's already a reason for cautious optimism."

'Worst-case scenario'

Let's move from percents to people.

"Just a minute. Although we're both Westernized countries, we are absolutely not South Korea. South Korea has one of the highest proportions of elderly people in the world, whereas Israel tops the graph in fertility, and we have a very young population. So, if we use the upper limit [of mortality] of South Korea and normalize the mortality rate for the population in Israel, we are talking about the probability of a mortality rate of 0.3 percent among those who have been infected.

"Now we'll go to a severe scenario in which no one is immune and every second person is sick, so that the disease is incapable of spreading further – namely, a situation where there's a maximum infection rate of 50 percent.

"We are a country of nine million citizens. So in the worst-case scenario, we are talking about 4.5 million Israelis who will become ill with the coronavirus. Multiply 4.5 million by 0.3 percent and you get 13,500 Israelis who are liable to die from the disease. By comparison, 700 to 2,500 Israelis die every year of complications from other respiratory ailments."

But German Chancellor Angela Merkel talked about a rate of infection of 70 percent in Germany.

"And Netanyahu talked about a mortality rate of between 2 percent and 4 percent. And do you know what's most absurd? That in the final analysis [U.S. President Donald] Trump was right . Not that the coronavirus is just plain flu – it absolutely isn't – but as he put it: 'This is just my hunch – way under 1 percent' [will die].'

"We must be cautious, of course, but at the moment a high probability is emerging that the risks are far lower than what the World Health Organization presented. Under two assumptions – that the health system doesn't collapse and that life continues as usual – we are not likely to see more than 13,500 victims of the coronavirus in Israel." (About 45,000 people die in Israel in a normal year, which would make for a rise of approximately one-third.)

But, social distancing should lead to fewer cases of infection and death, no?

"No, because we won't be able to isolate ourselves completely or forever. At some stage, we will have to resume a regular routine, and then the R0 will stabilize at 2 again. Effectively, we are delaying the inevitable. I have no criticism of the decisions made until now. On the contrary: With such a large area of uncertainty, Israel's decision makers are considering not only a reasonable scenario but also a margin of safety.

"In my opinion, the Health Ministry deserves tremendous credit for being ahead of the world by having instituted so few measures. In the same breath, the public needs to understand that these measures of social distancing mean that we will find ourselves with corona for a longer period, even to 2023."

A quarantine ward being set up at Sheba Medical Center in Ramat Gan. Tomer Appelbaum

That long?

"Take the swine flu, from 2009. Reliable models show clearly that it was contained in Israel because its appearance coincided with the Jewish holidays in the fall [when people weren't out much in public]. From the virus' point of view, the timing wasn't good for it in Israel. By contrast, in the United States there was significant infection in 2009-2010. But in the end, it balances out. So we saw swine flu in Israel both in 2009-10 and in 2010-11, whereas in the United States it just came and went. The American population as a whole was exposed to the virus at high rates, so those who fell ill and recovered served as a 'human shield' for those who did not get sick."

So what you're saying is to tear the bandage off in one fell swoop, and explose everyone at once, the way they tried to do in Britain.

"We need to make decisions based on the most precise models possible. What should be done? Of course, we must significantly increase testing, using the rapid PCR test, and that is what is actually being done. In parallel, serologic tests should be conducted. These differ from regular tests in that they examines an individual's immunological reaction to exposure. That's the only way we will be able to get an accurate picture of the distribution of the virus in Israel, and thereby also of the mortality rates."

What will that test be able to tell us?

"It will solve the riddle of the young people: It's still not clear whether young people are infected by the coronavirus but don't develop symptoms, or are simply immune and thus don't become infected. This is different from most respiratory ailments. With those illnesses, like RSV or flu, this is a key population: The 5-to-19 age group is not at risk but they are responsible for infecting others."

Because children don't wash their hands, and they drool on themselves?

"It's not only a function of hygiene, it's mainly a function of contact between people. Picture the average old person. How many different people does he encounter in a day? And what is the nature of those encounters? The older we get, the less we caress and kiss others. Also, children constitute the only age group that comes into contact with all other age groups – not just theirs. That's why it is the key population in spreading respiratory diseases."

.... ... ...

Oded Carmeli

Haaretz Contributor

[Mar 24, 2020] On Coronavirus, Reason To Hope by Rod Dreher

Notable quotes:
"... A drug like chloroquine doesn't have to be extremely effective in order to have a huge benefit on our ICU density. A small effect could have a big impact. And if chloroquine turns out not to work, there are other promising drugs such as Remdesivir, though chloroquine has the advantage of being cheap and easy to produce. ..."
Mar 23, 2020 | www.theamericanconservative.com
Reader Ryan Booth writes:

Rod, I was one of those screaming at our public officials to shut stuff down. I was extremely frustrated by President Trump's brushing off of our problem for a long time. I asked my Facebook friends if anyone wanted to help with a recall petition of Governor Edwards, after he took very mild steps against COVID-19 instead of the necessary firmer ones. I bristled with a mixture of horror and astonishment as New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell allowed bars to pack people in last weekend to celebrate St. Patrick's Day. I argued with friends on Facebook who insisted to me that "this is just a cold" and told me that I was irrational and needlessly spreading fear and panic.

So I have consistently supported strong steps to contain this virus, but I have now become very optimistic that the tide is about to turn, and I want to share why.

Testing is about to expand exponentially.

We've been steadily growing our testing ability since the outbreak began. America tested 44,176 people today, and every day sees a big increase. Yesterday, we tested 34,654 and it was 27,372 the day before that. A week ago, it was 4,124.

But these increases are small compared to what's in the pipeline. This week we saw FDA approval of new testing systems from Roche and from Abbott labs that run tests ten times faster than current methods. To give you an idea of what this means, Roche brags that their Cobas 8800 machine can process over 3000 tests per day. Until today, Louisiana hadn't had a total of 3000 people tested. Roche is now making and shipping 400,000 test kits per week in the US, while Abbott is making a million of their test kits each week. Those systems will be coming online this coming week.

Today, we got even more good news, with Cepheid getting FDA approval for their new test, which will detect the virus in 45 minutes and can be used in over 5000 Cepheid machines already in US hospitals. This will allow hospitals to test all their staff and every incoming patient on a consistent basis, so that we can keep our doctors and nurses safe and our hospitals don't spread the disease. Those testing kits are getting shipped out this coming week.

And there are more companies in the process of getting approval. In two weeks, we should be able to test 150,000 – 200,000 Americans daily, and that means that we don't all need to stay home anymore.

Let me explain how this works.

Suppose that Boudreaux, who works for the state of Louisiana, wakes up and has a fever. Right now, it's not easy for him to get tested – and if he could get tested, he wouldn't get his results for days. Let's say that Boudreaux is a good citizen and stays home at this point. That's great, except that Boudreaux went to work yesterday and exposed his coworker Pierre, and he also got his hair cut and exposed his barber, T-Boy. His wife Marie doesn't isolate from him, because she thinks that Boudreaux is just lazy and doesn't want to work, so she is also exposed. Unless Boudreaux gets sick enough that he needs to go to the hospital, he's not going to be tested, and Pierre, T-Boy, and Marie might all get the virus and – and this is key – then spread it themselves.

That's been our situation, and the only solution that we've had was to keep Boudreaux at home in the first place. That's why the state is keeping non-essential workers at home. That's why many places are forcing barbershops to close. So, now, our governmental restrictions keep T-Boy and Pierre from getting infected, though Marie is still at risk.

Now, imagine our original situation with easy, high-speed testing. Boudreaux wakes up with a fever, he goes to the drive-thru testing site and is notified about four hours later that he is positive. Now, everyone in his family and workplace immediately gets tested, as does T-Boy – and the virus does not spread beyond them.

The ability to test everyone who needs to be tested is how South Korea and Singapore have been able to control their outbreaks without significant societal restrictions. Their schools, restaurants, etc. are all open. And their economies are not wrecked. Again, we'll be at that point in less than two weeks.

Evidence strongly suggests that COVID-19 is seasonal.

A recent Chinese study compared transmission rates for all 100 Chinese cities outside of Wuhan that had at least 40 cases before their national lockdown, to see if the virus spread more slowly in warmer, more humid parts of China. Their conclusion:

"High temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19, respectively, even after controlling for population density and GDP per capita of cities This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19."

That study, as an example, predicted a R value of 1.3 in Tokyo for the Olympics -- with zero intervention! (For those of you who don't know what that means, it means that instead of spreading the disease to about 2.6 people, which is what happens now, the average person would only infect half as many people.) If this study were correct, it would mean that, with some control measures, it would be easy to keep COVID-19 from spreading during the Olympics.

Besides this study, we have the basic observation that the world's serious outbreaks have occurred in cold, dry weather. Jakarta and Milan both had nonstop flights to Wuhan during Wuhan's outbreak, but Italy has suffered a horrific crisis and Indonesia has not. Scientists believe that this is because COVID-19 is mainly transmitted by coughing , and the microdroplets emitted when someone coughs travel about twice as far in cold, dry air. Additionally, the water vapor present in humid air interacts with those microdroplets to stop them.

If COVID-19 is indeed a seasonal disease, then we should be able to almost eliminate it this summer, to the point that there will be zero restrictions on ordinary life. Sports leagues can fill stadiums with fans and political conventions can meet, and we won't have to worry that we're fanning a new outbreak.

Improved treatment will improve COVID-19 patient outcomes.

If you have watched President Trump on TV or follow him on twitter, then you know that he is hopeful about the promise of chloroquine (and its close relative hydroxychloroquine).

President Trump has perhaps overpromised what chloroquine can do, as the evidence of its benefit is still rather thin. But, if it has any benefit at all, it's a game-changer in terms of our ICUs. If chloroquine works, it works by lowering the amount of virus in the body. When you combine this with earlier testing, there's a tremendous advantage. The people who end up in the ICU don't get there until they've been sick for a week or so, as the virus grows in their body and then inflames the alveoli in the lungs, leading to shortness of breath. If chloroquine works, an at-risk patient would be given it right after testing positive, and hopefully, the viral load in their body never gets high enough for the patient to develop severe shortness of breath, and he stays out of the ICU.

A drug like chloroquine doesn't have to be extremely effective in order to have a huge benefit on our ICU density. A small effect could have a big impact. And if chloroquine turns out not to work, there are other promising drugs such as Remdesivir, though chloroquine has the advantage of being cheap and easy to produce.

Is the situation going to get worse in the US? Yes. Is the end in sight? I believe that it is. I write this to encourage each of you to hold on. If we can stay and home, enduring the claustrophobia, the family bickering, and the often severe economic consequences, we can beat this virus.

I miss my church. A streamed service tomorrow is not a true substitute for the togetherness in Christ that I need more than ever at this time. And my business is suffering. I think that I can make it another month, but I don't know about longer than that. I expect that our nation's psychiatrists and therapists are swamped right now, as stress and depression skyrocket.

But there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

[Mar 24, 2020] The mainstream media is pushing the fear full stop

Mar 24, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

gepay , Mar 23 2020 23:28 utc | 107

I think b has not been very good with this corona virus reporting. He thinks he was wrong on his initial reporting and changed as new facts emerged. however he basically repeats the mainstream line. I certainly am no expert, But then again it seems thee is a wide divergence of views from the "experts" but there is a mainstream conclusion which b agrees with. And the mainstream media is pushing the fear full stop.

I still think this is not a specially dangerous virus. almost entirely it is old people dying. almost entirely most of them have pre-existing conditions. My initial take was people who would die fairly soon or might die if they got a bad flu are dying but sooner. I know my wife went to the hospital and acquired a very bad pneumonia. She was on a respirator for over a week and afterwards was diagnosed with COPD. How many of these deaths are people who are sick with corona virus and go to the hospital and get a hospital acquired infection but are counted as dying from COV-18? Virologist have been heavily researching corona viruses since the SARS and MERS outbreaks that didn't kill very many people
I do agree that this virus seems exceptionally communicable. That nature article b cited seemed as if it was written to dismiss the idea that the virus was made in some biolab. I have read an article debunking this Nature article - the writer was trying to make a case that it came from a Chinese lab He agreed it wasn't manufactured by gene editing but was created by passing a corona virus through ferrets who do have the same ACE receptor that humans have and COV-19 uses to infect cells.

Engineered bat virus stirs debate over risky research ...

the announcement by Ralph Baric and co-workers at the University of North Carolina that they had created a chimeric SARS-like virus, which expresses the spike (attachment protein) of a bat coronavirus in a mouse-adapted SARS-CoV backbone (4). As in the cases of the genetically modified H5N1 avian influenza viruses, the newly generated SARS-like virus is potentially an extremely dangerous, possibly pandemic pathogen... That was 5 years ago.

https://www.nature.com/news/engineered-bat-virus-stirs-debate-over-risky-research That was 2015.

I agree with the uselessness of bioweapons as a military operation. The economic blowback we are now seeing is proof

But But what if this global crisis is exactly what those who want to totally control us would want to happen. It is precipitating the roll out of medical martial law.

There are laws on the books that give extraordinary powers in the event of a global epidemic or even a pandemic.

Not to mention in the US the Continuity of Government provisions strengthened massively after 9/11. Every year the state of emergency triggered by 9/11 has been renewed. Mandatory vaccinations for everyone. Quarantine powers granted The initiation of martial law. Now you don't have to be a terrorist but just said to be infected and away you go.

I don't think COV-19 is the one to justify the full implementation but it is another giant step for setting up the population for the full implementation.

[Mar 24, 2020] A woman in Chicago has developed a new function for the bra, one half of bra can serve as a mask

Mar 24, 2020 | www.youtube.com

SCODI OFFICER:001 , 4 days ago

Y'all know the chinese already did this back when SARS was around.

Ennis XU , 2 days ago

Somehow better than strawberry containers from ALDI

[Mar 24, 2020] Titillating advice

Mar 24, 2020 | www.youtube.com

A woman in Chicago has developed a new function for the bra, one that could help people escape dange - YouTube

alan king , 12 hours ago

titillating advice

[Mar 24, 2020] https://news.yahoo.com/us-orders-first-shutdown-website-over-coronavirus-fraud-023738032.html

Highly recommended!
Mar 22, 2020 | news.yahoo.com

US authorities are working to combat the spread of misinformation that has blossomed since the start of the coronavirus pandemic (AFP Photo/Alastair Pike) Washington (AFP) - The US Department of Justice announced Sunday it had shut down a website claiming to sell a coronavirus vaccine, in its first act of federal enforcement against fraud in connection with the pandemic.

Lawsuits had been filed against the site coronavirusmedicalkit.com, which claimed to sell vaccines for COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, when in fact there is no such vaccine, the Justice Department said in a statement.

A Texas federal judge on Saturday ordered the site to shut down, according to the statement. Its homepage, however, was still accessible as of Sunday evening.

"Due to the recent outbreak for the Coronavirus (COVID-19) the World Health Organization is giving away vaccine kits. Just pay $4.95 for shipping," read a statement on the homepage.

It was followed by a place to leave bank account information to pay shipping fees.

The Justice Department did not specify how many people fell victim to the scam, but the investigation is ongoing to identify who is behind the fraud and how much money was stolen.

The intervention by the federal judiciary system is part of ongoing efforts by US authorities to combat the spread of misinformation that has blossomed since the start of the pandemic.

Attorney General Bill Barr last week urged federal prosecutors to make stopping misinformation a priority and called US civilians to report all such abuses to the National Center for Disaster Fraud.

He also warned citizens against a variety of scams including selling fake treatments online, imitating emails from the WHO or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) intended to collect personal data, and asking for donations for imaginary organizations.

Simultaneously, the US judicial system is on the warpath to combat price gouging of products such as hand sanitizer or hygienic masks.

More than 33,000 people have been infected by the coronavirus in the US, and 416 have died, according to a tracker managed by Johns Hopkins University.

[Mar 24, 2020] Whenever these people decide on a narrative, they are loath to back down once they are proven wrong. They don't want to lose face.

Mar 24, 2020 | www.unz.com

Digital Samizdat , says: Show Comment March 22, 2020 at 1:27 pm GMT

@prime noticer What if–as seems to be happening in Italy–the journalists simply pretend that bodies are piling up, perhaps by attributing other deaths to Corona?

Beware: whenever these people decide on a narrative, they are loath to back down once they are proven wrong. They don't want to lose face.

https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/19/iss-report-99-of-covid19-deaths-already-ill/

#CoronaHoax

[Mar 24, 2020] The numbers for Italy have come down just a little bit more. Restrictions on the other hand have got even tighter, now only people who do essential work are allowed out of their homes.

Mar 24, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

dan of steele , Mar 23 2020 18:31 utc | 11

There is a bit more encouraging news tonight. the numbers for Italy have come down just a little bit more. Restrictions on the other hand have got even tighter, now only people who do essential work are allowed out of their homes.

As I mentioned yesterday in a post that got swallowed by the ether, Italy is going through some hard times financially.

Some self inflicted by governments spending more than the took in to stay in power and some because the banks refused to take a haircut.

Many small businesses are just barely survive and a couple of months without income is going to really hurt.

[Mar 24, 2020] The virus itself is exaggerated, it is the social and political impacts of it that are worrisome.

Mar 24, 2020 | www.unz.com

anon [837] Disclaimer , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 7:02 pm GMT

@Trinity The virus itself is exaggerated, it is the social and political impacts of it that are worrisome.
John Chuckman , says: Website Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 7:04 pm GMT
Something to think about

Here is an interesting item, an interview with a world-class virologist about the virus:

Quite different the what we see in the papers day after day:

https://www.anti-empire.com/german-virologist-of-international-renown-warns-government-lockdowns-are-a-horrible-mistake-will-make-crisis-worse/

[Mar 24, 2020] Joe Rogan Experience #1439 - Michael Osterholm

Highly recommended!
Michael Osterholm - Wikipedia (born March 10, 1953) is an American infectious disease epidemiologist, regents professor, and director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
Scientific establishment want money, want importance, wants political influence. That create difficult dilemma and force some people play the role of fear mongers.
Mar 24, 2020 | www.youtube.com

parcos79 , 13 hours ago

12 million views...holy cow

MKingston , 1 week ago

BUMP 00:10 Intro 0:40 How bad is Coronavirus 4:00 Is the virus an "old persons" disease 5:18 Incubation period 7:50 What can be done to prevent infection 13:45 Drug shortages 15:20 Sauna use effect on infections 18:00 Was Coronavirus man-made 22:00 American Wild Deer diseases and Prions 32:00 Is Corona seasonal 35:00 Corona could be 10 times worse than the flu 35:25 Corona will stay around for months 36:10 Coronavirus vs Spanish flu 38:30 How can we prepare our immune system 43:20 Do hand sanitizers and masks work 50:00 We stockpile weapons more than medical goods 54:30 Will people panic if they are told the truth 56:00 Vaccines 1:02:00 Why a virus would originate from China 1:11:30 What to do if you get the flu 1:15:45 Lime disease and ticks 1:23:00 Effects of fire suppression on ecosystem 1:30:00 Vaccine for Coronavirus

whisperingsage , 4 days ago (edited)

Sick nurses working, I have experienced that in every nursing home I have worked in in the US. In California and NV. Luckily, I found the trick, If I have a headache that won't be resolved with hydration, I figure it's a flu, I take 4 grams of C and 20,000 IU of D, and usually that takes care of it, no more symptoms. In the case that it persists, I keep taking 4 grams of C ever few hours and high dose D until the symptoms subside. Usually doesn't take too long, and ( a few hours) symptoms don't get bad.

Joan Anundson-Ahr , 1 day ago

Beware of any expert that promotes fearfulness and helplessness and tells us to just wait for a "miracle" vaccine. Why didn't he tell us the truth about the success of vitamin C therapy? Why didn't he tell us that some common medications like ibuprofen and heart medications can impede healing of the virus.

KW0311 USMC , 1 week ago

Joe doesnt like hearing his sauna and probiotics arent the cure for everything.

MiZzShiN3 , 7 hours ago (edited)

15:25 - 18:04 sauna myth

Aventura , 2 days ago (edited)

div> It´s funny and very predictable how programmed into fear people have become when it´s never the virus that kills you, but a weak immune system´s panick reaction. If you believe the MSM is not aligned with certain agendas, the WHO is not inherently corrupt, the pharmaceutical vaccine pushing industries have your best interests at heart and doctors really know what they are talking about when they always look at the parts as seperated and never the whole living system, then you will be shocked to learn the truth. https://www.youtube.com/user/drvashiva/videos I really look forward to a time, probably thanks to this crisis it will be in the not so distant future, where people will begin to wake up, see through the BS we are being bombarded with from the parasitical class of "rulers" or "elites". Then a paradigm shift in so many ways will begin to take place... Greetings from a tireless truth seeker!

Gina Jonson , 1 day ago div c

lass="comment-renderer-text-content expanded"> the difference between COVID 19 and the spanish flu and the fear rampant about this comparison is that our health care system is a little more advanced than what was available back in 1919 AND we are also so much more informed regarding hygiene practices.........not discounting the seriousness of this unprecendented occurrence.........but still great to focus on the "little" advantages we can monopolise on. in order to tackle this global crisis head on and rationally

WJK , 5 days ago (edited) div

> @PowerfulJRE - Joe PLEASE have Michael Osterholm back on asap and please ask Michael the following questions...

1) Are highly infectious airborne cold viruses killed by ozone from ozone/ion generators(?) and

2) Why do medical facilities and schools no longer install or utilize UV disinfection lighting like they use to utilize/install in entranceways, hallways, and rooms of hospitals and school classrooms like they use to do 50-75 years ago(?)

Steve Ward , 5 days ago

43:12 real good info about hand sanitizer and face masks

J_M_W_77 , 5 days ago

N95 masks....remember kids its a one way valve on the front of those things....breath in, and it filters the air....breath out, valve opens and the air goes out, " unfiltered". If you're sick, these masks will not prevent you from spreading it around.

Rodney Higgins , 2 days ago

China's only biosafety level 4 (BSL–4) laboratory is in Wuhan. Coincidences happen.

Tessangela Beck , 3 days ago div tabindex="0" role="article"

> Osterholm is a catalog of infectious disease info that is beyond valuable . . he's in his 60s . . maybe the planet has others who could fill his shoes in my home state of Minnesota; of course, I hope so! He also has a good sense of humor, managing a little chuckle when Joe suggested if any president could get around the informed consent issue of testing vaccines on prisoners, such as nasty rapists, it would be Trump. I'm glad to receive all the helpful info without a steady dose of politics and conspiracy chitchat. Now I know that my prebiotic and probiotic pills are only good for temporary relief and that my natural flora and fauna in the gut will take over...

GAiPS , 1 week ago (edited)

51:46 "We spend about 0.001% on public health compared to our defense department and yet look how vulnerable...it's the bugs...it's not a war...it's not a missile...is bringing the world economy down right now....it's a darn virus."

Noelf , 1 week ago

Can you imagine if even half the US defence budget was redirected into health care and research!! We (the world) spend trillions on arms and now we are fighting an enemy that bullets can't kill!! Infuriating!! 😡😡😠😠

Qidi Wang , 1 day ago div tabindex="0" role="article"

> How do you draw the conclusion that such viruses would always come from China? MERS was first discovered in the middle east, the 2009 flu originated in mexico, the Spanish flu originated in Kansas. I mean like if you search China on the pandemic wikipedia page there's only SARS and several flu outbreaks.

Also Wild life is not part of the cuisine in most of China, and it's really more of a status symbol for rich people to be able to find exotic food

Niels Raider , 5 days ago

In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way. Franklin D. Roosevelt

Roedy Green , 4 days ago (edited) div tabindex="0" role=

"article"> There is another nasty virus going around here in Victoria BC Canada that is a bit like CORVID-19.. I got it in mid-December and I am just getting over it. My friends recovered in two to three weeks. The symptoms include a cough that goes on and on leaving you breathless, extremely sore throat, runny nose, extreme weakness. Even the emergency room doctor said she had it. Have you heard of it? I think I got it travelling in a Handi-dart van with some elderly, sneezing Chinese speaking males.

Santino Rider , 5 days ago (edited)

51:40 Good reminder of war against missiles vs virus. Budgets... 53:00 his talk to banking/finance people. Scary. Like children, whereas Michael is more analytical, like engineers/scientists, see it all as problem-solution.

[Mar 24, 2020] Super-spreaders - mostly young fools ignoring social distancing on beaches, in parks, restaurants etc - are now popping up, most recently returning from Florida spring break

Mar 24, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Trisha , Mar 23 2020 19:06 utc | 27

Thanks b for the update.

Unfortunately, we in the US are way behind the curve in finding and locking down clusters. In fact super-spreaders - mostly young fools ignoring social distancing on beaches, in parks, restaurants etc - are now popping up, most recently returning from Florida spring break to Utah. Testing rates remain abysmal.

Idaho cases just went exponential, doubling about every 3 days. Republic Governor there is pretty much a copy of Trump, as in a dangerous idiot, giving press conferences with multiple staff hovering around, downplaying the risks, lying about test availability, talking about protecting businesses, etc.

[Mar 23, 2020] How the US is using "Chinese Virus" as a distraction from their own incompetence Asia Review

Mar 23, 2020 | asia-review.com

On the morning of March 11, US author Kurt Eichenwald tweeted

As I said, @ GOPLeader – and other GOPrs – were told in a political consultants memo to start using name "Chinese Virus" as part of some stupid political strategy.

Everyone: Go to McCarthy's twitter feed and ask "How can we trust GOP when you dont even know the disease's name?

-- Kurt Eichenwald (@kurteichenwald) March 11, 2020

And just as expected, over the next few days government officials and politicians, including the respected President of the United States, started using the term "Chinese Virus".

This usage is against the new naming convention released by the WHO in 2015.

Dr Keiji Fukuda, Assistant Director-General for Health Security at WHO said in 2015 regarding the new naming convention, "We've seen certain disease names provoke a backlash against members of particular religious or ethnic communities, create unjustified barriers to travel, commerce and trade, and trigger needless slaughtering of food animals. This can have serious consequences for peoples' lives and livelihoods."

Unfortunately, the political strategy has succeeded. Instead of talking about how absolutely incompetent the US response has been, the talking point has been shifted to Americans fighting over whether its right to call it Chinese Virus, with one side saying it stigmatises innocent Asians and instigates hate crime, and the other claiming its a liberal PC agenda.

This, coupled with the spread of fake news regarding how China "covered it up for weeks", (which I wrote about here ) has successfully diverted anger away from the US government and shifted the blame to China.

For good measure, a short recap of the US's incompetence:

Censorship and misinformation (which Americans claim China is doing)

Trump calling it a hoax https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/29/joe-biden-trump-coronavirus-hoax-claim

News station host calling it a hoax https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1240640020714848257

The Trump administration barred a top US disease expert from speaking freely to the public
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-anthony-fauci-trump-admin-stops-discussion-2020-2

Lawmaker Condemns 'Unacceptable' CDC Decision to Stop Disclosing Number of Coronavirus Tests
https://www.thedailybeast.com/cdc-decision-to-stop-disclosing-coronavirus-test-total-condemned-by-lawmaker

Official: White House didn't want to tell seniors not to fly
https://apnews.com/921ad7f1f08d7634bf681ba785faf269

Trump tried to stall intelligence report by DNI, cut funding for pandemic preparedness, CDC
https://time.com/5799765/intelligence-report-pandemic-dangers/

Seattle lab uncovered Washington's coronavirus outbreak only after defying federal regulators
https://theweek.com/speedreads/901405/seattle-lab-uncovered-washingtons-coronavirus-outbreak-only-after-defying-federal-regulators

Coronavirus: Sheriff Chitwood reveals 20 potential Volusia cases
https://www.news-journalonline.com/news/20200314/coronavirus-sheriff-chitwood-reveals-20-potential-volusia-cases

CDC wanted to recommend all over 60 to remain inside their homes, but was instructed not to by government officials https://twitter.com/LACaldwellDC/status/1238870221672386563

Downplaying the virus all the way from the start until March 16 https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1240043597434687489?s=20

Incompetence in testing

Manufacturing defects leading to days of delays https://www.wsj.com/articles/manufacturing-defect-in-some-early-cdc-test-kits-being-probed-11583119414

Testing 400 people in 40 days while the world has tests hundreds of thousands https://fortune.com/2020/03/03/coronavirus-us-test/

A Pennsylvania state laboratory is now able to handle about six tests per day
https://www.wtae.com/article/pennsylvania-begins-coronavirus-testing-at-state-owned-lab/31212554

As of March 3rd, New York City has only tested 17 people for coronavirus
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/coronavirus.page

CDC Tested Just 77 People For Coronavirus This Week (article dated 13 Mar) https://www.huffpost.com/entry/coronavirus-cdc-tested-77-people-this-week_n_5e6b06c1c5b6dda30fc6424d?ncid=engmodushpmg00000004

Sick People Across the U.S. Say They Are Being Denied the Coronavirus Test https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/us/coronavirus-testing-challenges.html

The entire state of Indiana has 100 tests https://www.southbendtribune.com/news/local/coronavirus-testing-picks-up-pace-in-south-bend-region-and/article_52bdcb0e-63e9-11ea-a23f-736dca0c8273.html

Sheer incompetence

Oklahoma governor urges residents to join him at crowded food hall https://www.readfrontier.org/stories/despite-coronavirus-spread-governor-visits-packed-food-hall-urges-oklahomans-to-join-him/

Florida governor refuses to shut down beaches amid spread of coronavirus https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/florida-governor-refuses-shut-down-beaches-amid-spread-coronavirus-n1162226

[Mar 23, 2020] Credible insights into the Coronavirus by Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg

A very interesting discussion by Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg. He compare this epidemic hype with famous Andersen tale about the Naked King. He points out on the fact that test for the virus was developed in a hurry and it is unclear how many false positive it allow.
All-in-all a very interesting, educational discussion by Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg even you do not agree with him.
Mar 15, 2020 | www.youtube.com

I just made the English voiceover. Original video is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_Ayu...

Learn about Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfgan...

Compare with

Joe Rogan Experience #1439 - Michael Osterholm - YouTube

[Mar 23, 2020] Way Past Time for Proper Perspective on Corona Virus by Larry C Johnson

Mar 23, 2020 | turcopolier.typepad.com

Deap , 23 March 2020 at 12:38 PM

Two issues continue to be misrepresented which systematicly allow "corona" to take on the spectre of the Zombie Apocalypse:

1. Social distancing keeps people out of the sneeze-cough zone for droplet contamination by air. Yet social shunning of those who continue to cough and sneeze in public in fact is what needs to be made the primary line of defense. Not the crowds of people stocking up on toilet paper but virtuously standing 6 feet apart, clueless about their own role fostering the Zombie Apocalypse imagery.

2. Self-inoculation is the second source of infection, and way under-emphasizied while again disguised by virtuous but meaningless ritual behavior.

All the talk is about hand washing, surface decontamination and hand sanitizers which ultimately are a fools errand since this additional new, and critical ritual behavior often fails to emphasize the absolutely important disease connection that comes from sticking your very own (presumed) dirty fingers into one's own nose, mouth and/or eyes.

Few are 100% observant about how many surfaces they actually touch before the stick their "washed or sanitized hands" back into their own mouth, nose or eyes.

Washing your hands remains #1 in importance, but so does WATCHING your hands.

"Don't touch your face" misses the point too - another message fail - one must vividly make the connection between their own fingers and their own body orifices leading to the upper respiratory tract. And continue to be aware of this connection 24/7 - no exceptions.

Organic homemake hand sanitizers are as good as the last thing you touched or the next person who cough next to your clorox-wiped surfaces.

The media goes out of its way to instill the Zombie Apocalypse vision of this "flu" - it is everywhere, you must fear everything and nothing can protect you. If you touch it, you will die. If it is in the air, you will die. You never know who has it. You are a victim. And it is someone else's fault.

So one can pretend to do useless and ritual activities but ignore one's own role and one's own personal responsibility for its contact and spread.

1. Socially shun anyone who fails to protect their coughs or sneezes, until they learn new habits - how does staying 6 feet away from everyone teach the offenders new habits?

2. Wash your hands and watch what you touch. 100% of the time.

TSA is now with us 100% of the time after 911- regardless of the numerical threat. Proper self-hygiene needs to be with us 100% of the time too - and never should have left us.

Bring back white gloves. Now we know why.

JohninMK , 23 March 2020 at 12:42 PM
Here in the UK either our management are incompetent of they know something we don't is my take.

Apart from summary figures broken down by Health district for 'got it' or 'dead from it' there is nothing. Testing apart from in hospitals is unknown unless you are famous so no-one has any idea what the viruses progress is in the community. What is happening at individual hospitals is probably a state secret now.

Even though, between themselves, they knew it was coming at the latest in mid January, they did nothing. No extra orders for masks, ventilators etc.

Yet they are allowing fear and panic to rip through the community and huge economic damage.

I haven't yet properly worked out cui bono but I have my suspicions. But they are passing some draconian laws.

TournezVite , 23 March 2020 at 01:15 PM
The actual mortality rate may be closer to 1% or less with most of it concentrated in the over 70s. The reasonable thing to do would have been to protect seniors while letting everyone else go about their business. Nuking the economy with lockdowns is the politicians' way of competing with each other to show they're "doing something." It's craven behavior not leadership.

A number of notable virologists have advocated for a more level-headed approach, among them Dr. David Katz. See https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing.html.

This daily updated page https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/ has compiled a lengthy list of doctors and virologists who are critical of the panic mongering.

Nornert M Salamon , 23 March 2020 at 03:11 PM
Thank you Larry for the sobering analysis of Corvid-19.

I only disagree with your emphasis that the social distancing is the main cause of economic collapse.

Methinks that the everything bubble in coordination of unrepayable debt fiasco has arrived, and the ELITES/media are distracting from refinancing the Wall Street gamblers, Share-buyback artists, Private equity leveraged asset strippers and the offshore artist looser.

We are replaying the 2008 modus operandi get the elites saved financially and let the poor people try to survive on their own as they assume all the obligation of the
elite rescue

English Outsider , 23 March 2020 at 03:57 PM
Larry Johnson - I'm afraid I'm rather more of JJ Jackson's view as to the potential seriousness of this disease.

But the economic effects are already pretty devastating. 10% of world trade is tourism and related. Entertainment is a big industry. Both hard hit and other sectors too. Pensioners spend a fair bit and many are no longer doing so.

So whether we panic or not that's the reality. A reality superimposed on a weak and vulnerable economy. Also on a financial system already on life support.

That's more the case in my country than yours, by quite a long chalk. Even so, though I believe the US is in a better position to recover, the hit's coming our way wherever we live. You can't take that amount of economic activity out and expect there to be only a few bumps in the road.

Theoretically the best approach is yours. Business as usual, tuck the vulnerable away, take such casualties as come along among the less vulnerable. Could even be an opportunity for economic regeneration along Trump 2016 lines.

This hasn't happened and I doubt it would have even had the strategy been agreed on and adopted early on. And there's too much disconnect between the rulers and ruled for anything constructive much to happen now, certainly in UK politics though it would be presumptuous in me to venture an opinion here about yours. This is already a big deal and should be treated as such.

I've been following your analyses on Russiagate and they're on the money every time. I hope the pandemic isn't used as an opportunity to bury that disgraceful affair. But there'll be plenty hoping it's just that.

[Mar 23, 2020] a New York Times opinion piece, authored by a "writer, producer and yoga teacher" who apparently contracted the virus, and had to be hospitalized noting that it did not keep her (Fiona Lowenstein) from taking a "selfie", apparently with a non-sterile, yet-somehow-permitted-in-the-hospital room cell phone?

Mar 23, 2020 | www.unz.com

OscarWildeLoveChild , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 1:37 pm GMT

@Dd I don't know, but I have a lot of questions about things I have been reading, from the data, demonstrating the weakness of the virus, and non-lethality, to a New York Times opinion piece, authored by a "writer, producer and yoga teacher" who apparently contracted the virus, and had to be hospitalized noting that it did not keep her (Fiona Lowenstein) from taking a "selfie", apparently with a non-sterile, yet-somehow-permitted-in-the-hospital room cell phone? You normally have all that stuff bagged up. I dunno. Check out the article and her pic, judge for yourself.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/opinion/coronavirus-young-people.html/?2020-03-23T09%3A00%3A09%2000%3A00

It isn't that I don't think it is possible, or true, about this or other similar stories, or that the data is fake or false .there's just so much to digest and some of it seems incredulous and/or contradictory.

[Mar 23, 2020] Coronavirus NHS doctors feel like 'lambs to slaughter' without protective kit, warns senior medic by Lizzy Buchan

From comments: "They had three months to prepare. Their attitude: "They need us more than we need them. Get ready for brexit." That is all they care about. Their criminal neglect and insane obsession has consigned tens of thousands to death. "
Notable quotes:
"... nearly 4,000 NHS workers appealed to the prime minister to "protect the lives of the life-savers" and resolve the "unacceptable" shortage of protective equipment. ..."
"... Dr Parmar told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show: "We have had doctors tell us they feel like lambs to the slaughter, that they feel like cannon fodder. GPs tell us that they feel absolutely abandoned. ..."
"... In an open letter to The Sunday Times, some 3,963 doctors said staff were "putting their lives on the line every day" by treating coronavirus patients without appropriate protection. ..."
"... The letter said: "Frontline doctors have been telling us for weeks that they do not feel safe at work. ..."
Mar 23, 2020 | independent.co.uk

Coronavirus: NHS doctors feel like 'lambs to slaughter' without protective kit, warns senior medic. 'We must really stress to the prime minister that we need to protect the front line here'

Doctors battling the coronavirus outbreak feel like "lambs to the slaughter" without adequate protection equipment, a senior medic has said.

Dr Rinesh Parmar, chair of the Doctors' Association, said frontline NHS staff were being treated as "cannon fodder" as he launched a desperate appeal to Boris Johnson for more resources to keep medics safe.

Dr Parmar, a consultant anaesthetist who is working on a Covid-19 intensive care ward, said it was the "calm before the storm" and NHS staff were braced for a surge in cases.

His warning came as nearly 4,000 NHS workers appealed to the prime minister to "protect the lives of the life-savers" and resolve the "unacceptable" shortage of protective equipment.

Dr Parmar told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show: "We have had doctors tell us they feel like lambs to the slaughter, that they feel like cannon fodder. GPs tell us that they feel absolutely abandoned.

... ... ...

In an open letter to The Sunday Times, some 3,963 doctors said staff were "putting their lives on the line every day" by treating coronavirus patients without appropriate protection.

The letter said: "Frontline doctors have been telling us for weeks that they do not feel safe at work.

"Intensive care doctors and anaesthetists have told us they have been carrying out the highest-risk procedure, putting a patient on a ventilator, with masks that expired in 2015."

[Mar 23, 2020] Some inventive modern ways to disinfect masks

Microware can be used for cleaning if you make the mask slightly wet. In this case they will heat to over 60 0 C. Other then using alcohol this is probably the fastest method of disinfection
Mar 23, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org
Don Utter , Mar 23 2020 18:11 utc | 4
Can a mask be cleaned by a microwave?

Taffyboy , Mar 23 2020 18:51 utc | 21

@4

If you can, get one of these, and there are 110 volt UVC lamps also.

https://www.amazon.ca/Germicidal-Lamp-Ozone-Light-Covers/dp/B07RWZ5SG6/ref=sr_1_10?crid=2RDBYXDA7Q4F2&keywords=uvc+lamp+germicide&qid=1584989398&sprefix=uvc+lamp%2Caps%2C913&sr=8-10

[Mar 23, 2020] Chronology of the death of a French doctor today

Mar 23, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Mina , Mar 22 2020 17:05 utc | 31

Chronology of the death of a French doctor today. Came back from a trip to Madagascar a month ago in good shape. Was working at Compiegnes, which because a cluster in mid-February when it received a taxi driver who was positive and treated him without special precautions. Got sick and was quarantined 3 weeks ago, i.e. early March, two weeks after exposition.
Died today. That is to say that most of the dead we see now might have been affected since mid-Feb.

[Mar 23, 2020] Fake science: Dr. Dan Lee Dinke claims that breathing hot air in a sauna for 20 minutes will mostly clean the upper respiratory tract of corona-viruses

Sauna or hot tube might help as it raise body temperature to fever levels and as such inhibit spreading of the virus.
Mar 23, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org
LP , Mar 22 2020 18:50 utc | 52
Sauna is your friend:

https://youtu.be/vz5KmKKiuqk

Dr. Dan Lee Dinke: All Corona-viruses have a common weakness:heat kills them. Specifically relative short exposure to 56°C. Breathing hot air in a sauna for 20 minutes will mostly clean the upper respiratory tract of corona-viruses, but a hair dryer can also help if no sauna available.

The video is worth to watch and could save lives through such a simple method.

c1ue , Mar 22 2020 19:22 utc | 57

@LP #52
Wrong. The lower respiratory tract - the temperature is stable via mixing outside air with inside. Otherwise people could not survive in extreme cold or extreme heat situations.

The hot air might kill the virus outside; it won't kill the virus in the lower respiratory tract.

[Mar 23, 2020] Wuhan coronavirus death toll rises to 56 as healthcare workers say medical supplies are running out

Jan 26, 2020 | cnnphilippines.com

In Wuhan, ground zero for the virus, four healthcare workers -- including doctors -- have told CNN of the difficulties facing medical crews on the ground. They have asked to remain anonymous to avoid repercussions.

Through telephone conversations with CNN and posts on Chinese social media, they told of low hospital resources. In private groups online, those identified as hospital staff are coordinating with members of the public to import protective equipment as they treat an increasing number of infected patients.

"In terms of resources, the whole of Wuhan is lacking," one Wuhan-based healthcare worker told CNN by phone. This person said they were looking for more protective clothing, protective goggles and masks.

"It's really like we're going into battle stripped to the waist," one healthcare worker added, using a Chinese idiom that equates to "going into battle without armor".

One hospital staff member claims healthcare workers have resorted to wearing diapers to work so as to avoid having to remove their HAZMAT suits, which they say are in short supply. A doctor on her Chinese social media Weibo page described similar accounts at another Wuhan hospital.

"My family members are definitely worried about me, but I still have to work," another doctor told. But she said that she is hopeful they will ultimately get the gear they need. "Our bosses, our hospital suppliers will definitely find a way to get these stocks to us," she added.

It's not clear if these accounts are anecdotal or whether there are widespread shortages across Wuhan.

Chinese state media has also shared posts from multiple Wuhan hospitals in which they ask for public donations of medical supplies. They report that one hospital staff member said the current supplies "are only able to sustain three or four days".

The Wuhan Health Commission has requisitioned over 10,000 beds from 24 hospitals to be used in the treatment of confirmed and suspected cases.

On Friday, Wuhan officials acknowledged that local hospitals were struggling to accommodate people seeking medical attention and said measures were being put into place to alleviate the situation.

State media also reported that the city aims to build a 25,000 square meter (269,100 square foot) new facility within a week, increasing hospital capacity by 1,000 beds, and that several medical centers in Hubei province are asking for medical gear donations.

[Mar 23, 2020] Perspectives of using mRNA technology for a vaccine for the COVID-19

Mar 23, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Likklemore , Mar 22 2020 14:55 utc | 2

I read of the new tool scanning online messages. Checking in: late afternoon my two comments, in reply, failed to appear in the "Western Governments failures" thread.

Coronavirus, Vaccines and the Gates Foundation -
F. William Engdahl delves into the new mRNA vaccine.


[.] Gates Foundation monies via CEPI are financing development of a radical new vaccine method known as messengerRNA or mRNA.

They are co-funding the Cambridge, Massachusetts biotech company, Moderna Inc., to develop a vaccine against the Wuhan novel coronavirus, now called SARS-CoV-2. Moderna's other partner is the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), a part of the National Institutes of Health (NIH). Head of NIAID is Dr Anthony Fauci, the person at the center of the Trump Administration virus emergency response. Notable about the Fauci-Gates Moderna coronavirus vaccine, mRNA-1273, is that it has been rolled out in a matter of weeks, not years, and on February 24 went directly to Fauci's NIH for tests on human guinea pigs, not on mice as normal. Moderna's chief medical adviser, Tal Zaks, argued, "I don't think proving this in an animal model is on the critical path to getting this to a clinical trial."

Another notable admission by Moderna on its website is the legal disclaimer, "Special Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements: These risks, uncertainties, and other factors include, among others: the fact that there has never been a commercial product utilizing mRNA technology approved for use." In other words, completely unproven for human health and safety.

Another biotech company working with unproven mRNA technology to develop a vaccine for the COVID-19 is a German company, CureVac. Since 2015 CureVac has received money from the Gates Foundation to develop its own mRNA technology. In January the Gates-backed CEPI granted more than $8 million to develop a mRNA vaccine for the novel coronavirus.[.]

======
early fall the CDC planning and forgot to order test kits and ventilators:---{hapstance} ---the recruitment of

Public Health Advisors (Quarantine Program) country wide major cities, every state
Open Period:2019-11-15 to 2020-05-15 Salary $511440. to $93077.
Job summary: - responsible for preventing the importation and spread of communicable diseases from abroad and spread of these diseases domestically.[.]

Duties:
[Provide technical assistance, consultation and guidance to national, state and / or local agencies; health organizations; federal, state and local law enforcement agencies [.] and quarantine activities [.] ]

[Mar 22, 2020] There didn't need to be a crisis or a panic. But a CRISIS! is something that is politically useful: to direct hate against China; to provide extraordinary support to favored interests like Banks and Wall Street and Boeing.

Notable quotes:
"... By mid-February, it was clear that certain drugs and anti-virals were effective. It was important to have widespread tests so that these drugs could be administered early, especially to vulnerable populations. Yet weeks later, the West (especially USA) was still unprepared to test. ..."
Mar 22, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Jackrabbit , Mar 22 2020 6:40 utc | 102

@101

I raised the same issues a couple of days ago:

The real danger was always in the possibility that the healthcare system is overwhelmed. Then you get large numbers of unnecessary deaths.

So a country needs to flatten the curve. The best way to do that is to close the schools as soon as community spread is detected. In the West, this should've been done in early February - it wasn't.

By mid-February, it was clear that certain drugs and anti-virals were effective. It was important to have widespread tests so that these drugs could be administered early, especially to vulnerable populations. Yet weeks later, the West (especially USA) was still unprepared to test.

There didn't need to be a crisis or a panic. But a CRISIS! is something that is politically useful: to direct hate against China; to provide extraordinary support to favored interests like Banks and Wall Street and Boeing.

The Empire Games Covid-19

<> <> <> <> <>

In addition, it seems that USA/Trump was hoping that remdesivir, developed by Gilead Sciences, would be the (expensive) drug of choice to treat Covid-19.

!!

[Mar 22, 2020] Best Coronavirus Trump Statements Timeline Synopsis Ever Put Together

1 minute 22 second video with Trump statements in chonological order @ https://twitter.com/i/videos/tweet/1240985096838053889
There is a saying the you fight the war with the army you have, not with the army you want.
Notable quotes:
"... Ok. Let me start by stating that I am not a "staunch" Trump supporter. However, I just really despise the constant visceral negative, hatred towards our Country's President. ..."
"... As I am sure you are aware, it is a tremendously difficult job, especially in today's crisis. I would think it would be better serve of your time and efforts to be constructive and optimistic, and hopeful. Rather than pinpointed every single steps and missteps he makes. He is certainly no perfect - but his goal is the same as all of ours: to defeat this virus in the best manner possible with the resources available. ..."
"... For the entire Trump Presidency it was all about the stock market. So, here we are. ..."
Mar 22, 2020 | moneymaven.io

Please play this.

Anthony Scaramucci @Scaramucci

I hope this is played everyday everywhere until Nov 8. Unless ⁦ @ realDonaldTrump ⁩ resigns as he should immediately.

https://twitter.com/i/videos/tweet/1240985096838053889

35.6K 8:54 AM - Mar 20, 2020 Twitter Ads info and privacy

23.6K people are talking about this

Mish

20 hours ago Here is a 1 minute 22 second video timeline of Trump's amazing handling of the coronavirus.

Please play this.

It will take less than two minutes of your time.

One missing key quote is a statement Trump made bragging about having natural talent coupled with a proclamation that he could have been a scientist instead of president.

More Questions:

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

njbr 20 hrs

The dumb-asses in DC still don't get it. "Top" leaders crowding around a single microphone in a stage no larger than a public restroom. Working toward a 1 time $1200 check that probably wont be issued/delivered for another couple weeks. What about the weeks after that--are they going to spend the next couple weeks going around about the next check?? Has the production of ventilators actually been accelerated-who could tell from what has been said? Why are nurses and doctors in my area asking the public for donations of PPE at the very beginning of the serious phase? What happens when the doctors and nurses start tipping over? Two partially ready hospital ships may help in one spot each on the coast, but what about everywhere else? Has anyone even checked on the production capacity for the maybe helpful malaria medicine--has anyone been directed to begin proactive super-production of this product? On and on.

DeeDee3 20 hrs

hard to prove deliberate neglect when you eliminate all of the evidence. No testing means "no virus" and sadly supported the hoax theory.

Another doc died in the city today. ER's are unprotected. what conclusion can we draw from all of this?

Zardoz 20 hrs

Thousands will die because of his incompetence... and his followers will blame the Chinese

egilkinc 20 hrs

There should be a tracker of the number of cases [among medical personnle] in the US along with this

Sechel 20 hrs

Oh my g-d. This is excellent! I think Trump has learned some bad lessons from Goebbels. Repeat the lie and repeat it often and people will take your version of events. This really serves to correct the record! Good work!

PecuniaNonOlet 20 hrs

And yet there will be an avalanche of Trump supporters defending the idiot. It is truly beyond me.

michiganmoon 20 hrs

Actually, Trump should resign and give the GOP a chance this November.

Had Trump not downplayed this and had tests ready, he could have played on a loop Biden on January 31st saying travel restrictions from Wuhan were racist and xenophobic.

thesaint0013 20 hrs

Ok. Let me start by stating that I am not a "staunch" Trump supporter. However, I just really despise the constant visceral negative, hatred towards our Country's President.

As I am sure you are aware, it is a tremendously difficult job, especially in today's crisis. I would think it would be better serve of your time and efforts to be constructive and optimistic, and hopeful. Rather than pinpointed every single steps and missteps he makes. He is certainly no perfect - but his goal is the same as all of ours: to defeat this virus in the best manner possible with the resources available.

To criticize previous tweets, interviews, and depict his flaws and errors does not help the common goal. The nature of some of the questions posed to him during the press conferences should be a bit more respectful and again, it doesn't serve any positive outcome to try and "catch" him in a lie, and how he may have said something that was not factual or false.

Again, he's not perfect and neither are anyone of us. However he is our President and we should support his and all of our common goal to defeat this virus.

Russell J 20 hrs

Not making excuses for Trump at all but he/we have people who are specialists and are responsible for being ready at all times for something like this and are responsible for being on the look out for this. Somebody should have came forward, even as a whistleblower. I've been aware for about 2 months now.

Thank you WWW.PEAKPROSPERITY.COM, MISH and WWW.ZEROHEDGE.COM

This was an epic failure of Trump, his administration and America in general.

ghoffa 20 hrs

Hi,
@MishTalk @Mish
I wanted to sincerely thank you MISH from my whole extended family. I have been reading you since 2007 when Ron Paul removed the scales from my eyes on the Fed and govt., Jekyll Island book, the "financial markets" (all modern day money changers). Every picture I see of Fed chairpersons, their eyes look dead black sharks eyes (to quote a famous book which I subscribe, the eyes are the windows to the soul).

In addition our mob style duolopoly govt and for the most part complicit MSM (all with significant influencing billionaire ownership to control the news - easily searched). I've learned so much from this blog and the many commentors in this space ( a personal fav is @Stuki ) . Nothing short of brilliant and reminds me of my fav news source Zerohedge and it's articles and commentors.

A special thanks for pointing us to Chris Martenson (peakprosperity.com) as my wife and I have watched every day his free daily videos since JAN @24th and our extended family is as prepared as we can be. God help us all with what's coming.

For those who haven't watched it, Dr. Martenson has a great 3 min video on exponential growth on YTube. Search his name and exponential. It will help you prepare for what our govt knows is coming in enourmous exponential growth in fatalities. Even knowing, it will be an emotional thing to prepare for. Prepping home supplies is one thing, prepping emotionally is also important per Dr. Martenson. HCWs be damned.

As this impacts people personally, I expect insider leaks to come from many fronts. We're working with neighbors to get prepared as we're all on our own now as the money changers (evil) bail out the money changers (evil) amidst a system that is so debt leveraged it can't likely be bailed out. "everything's a nail and the Fed has a hammer".

Lastly this brings a famous quote to mind as the people rise up against corrupt govt, corp bailouts after stock buy backs, etc. Let alone the monsters upon monsters creating lab viruses (regardless of the source of this virus), and unregulated GMOs changing the fabric of life.....

"All it takes for evil to prevail is for good people to do nothing". Margaret Mead
G

QE2Infinity 20 hrs

Come on! First off, anyone can be made to look bad by taking snippets out of context and stringing them together. That said, Trump does tend towards braggadocio. If that is off putting to you, he can be annoying. I much prefer a transparent fool to the more sly variety that plays the part well while sticking a knife in your back.

But let's be honest here. The president can do very little. The bureaucracy of the government is a jobs program for the less ambitious and politically inclined. It's staffed with incompetent bureaucrats that show up, surf the web and may get around to an hour or two of honest work. Public unions guarantee they can't be fired.

Obama converted the CDC into a PC jobs program for lefties, just like he converted NASA into a Muslim outreach program.

May one ask: why is a self proclaimed libertarian screaming for more government action? Wouldn't it be great if one of the outcomes of this crisis is that local communities became more self reliant and more self sufficient!

Sechel 20 hrs

that's from a website called therecount.com looks interesting.

Greggg 20 hrs

For the entire Trump Presidency it was all about the stock market. So, here we are.

numike 20 hrs

while we all point fingers lets look at a useful guide regarding the mess we are ALL in now https://www.seriouseats.com/2020/03/food-safety-and-coronavirus-a-comprehensive-guide.html

Food Safety and Coronavirus: A Comprehensive Guide Questions about COVID-19 and food safety, answered. www.seriouseats.com

Tengen 20 hrs

The graphic at the end of the video already looks out of date and shows how rapid the spread has been. For March 2020 it shows 5,002 cases in the US (and counting) but right now I'm seeing 24,137 cases.

So much for "in a couple of days the 15 is going to be down close to zero".

njbr 20 hrs

What can the President do?

Force and organize the production of necessary goods.

Mish Editor 19 hrs

May one ask: why is a self proclaimed libertarian screaming for more government action? Wouldn't it be great if one of the outcomes of this crisis is that local communities became more self reliant and more self sufficient!

Mish Editor 19 hrs

Trump did not Drain the Swamp. He IS the swamp

Mish Editor 19 hrs

Anyone who still supports this President's actions is a TDS-inflicted fool.

Jim Bob 19 hrs

I've followed Mish for ~ 12 years online and on the radio for brilliant economic analysis. Lately his work has been undermined by irrational political opinion. Mish has turned into Krugman. I won't be back.

abend237-04 19 hrs

The Donald is obviously afflicted with the same narcissistic megalomania prerequisite for a successful run at any elective office above County Coroner, anywhere in this country.

That said, he can apparently read a graph, and he's right: The two drug combination of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin are working to treat this damn thing, BUT:

It is, indeed, not a Covid-19 preventative.

If you get it, and you dink around at home too long waiting for improvement, arriving at ICU needing ventilation leaves you with roughly the odds of Russian roulette of surviving, especially if you're older.

Lacking testing, the only remaining means available to knock the transmission rate down quickly is social distancing/lockdown. But, enough of that prevention can leave us wishing we were dead anyway.

Unfortunately, all the college kids jamming the bars and beaches is setting the stage for continued exponential growth by hordes of asymptomatic spreaders.

The march of folly continues.

I like what I'm seeing of Cuomo. He'd be a good guy to have in the room in a serious fight; This qualifies.

DBG8489 19 hrs

As someone who hates all politicians, there is zero love lost between Trump and myself. I had hopes when he was elected that he would make a difference but it was clear based on how he looked after his private meeting with Obama on inauguration day that he was in over his head.

Having said that, I will say this:

From at least the "major" state level up, it would appear that not one single elected official or the top advisors and bureaucrats who work for them have shown anything but complete and utter failure in their handling of this emergency.

You have senators selling off piles of stock while either saying nothing or telling the rest of us that it was bullshit. And trust me - they were not the only ones. If anyone cares to investigate, they will likely find this problem rampant. Elected officials should not even be allowed to trade stocks when they control the entire economy - not even through alleged "blind trusts" - it's bullshit. But that's a conversation for another time.

You have congressional reps and senators blaming each other and/or the other party and passing laws and bailouts without even reading the bills they are passing.

You have the Treasury and the Fed printing money and throwing it at every hole that opens up without the slightest regard for what the unintended consequences of those actions may entail.

You have governments of the "major" states (CA, NY, NJ...etc) who know they can't simply print money being exposed using any extra money they had (along with taxes based on tourism that have now disappeared) to fund God knows what now demanding that everyone else pony up to pay for their failure to plan...

The lack of leadership in the major states and at the Federal level is abysmal ACROSS THE BOARD.

And that includes members of BOTH parties and nearly every single bureaucratic agency involved.

You can single Trump out if you want, but he's not alone. He's just an easy target because 49% of the population hated him before this started.

njbr 18 hrs

....Top health officials first learned of the virus's spread in China on January 3, US Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said Friday. Throughout January and February, intelligence officials' warnings became more and more urgent, according to the Post -- and by early February, much of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the CIA's intelligence reports were dedicated to warnings about Covid-19.

All the while, Trump downplayed the virus publicly, telling the public the coronavirus "is very well under control in our country," and suggesting warm weather would neutralize the threat the virus poses....

...The administration did begin taking some limited action about a month after Azar says the administration first began receiving warnings, blocking non-citizens who had been to China in the last two weeks from entering the country on February 3 -- a move public experts have argued at best bought the US time to ramp up its testing capabilities, which it did not use, and at worst had no beneficial effects at all.

Trump finally assembled a task force to address the virus, putting Vice President Mike Pence in charge of the effort on February 26, and declared a national emergency on March 13. And, just this week -- nearly three months after first receiving warnings from his intelligence officials -- the president's public tone about the crisis shifted: "I've always known this is a real -- this is a pandemic," he said Tuesday as he admitted, "[the virus is] not under control for any place in the world."....

Realist 18 hrs

I have been watching political leaders in my own country get on television daily. They have all done a great job of informing the public about the dangers of this virus. They have all relied on the experts to relay information to the public about what the government is doing, and what individuals should be doing. This is true at the national, regional, and local levels.

In addition businesses have been sending out emails, radio announcements and tv messages explaining what they are doing in regard to this pandemic.

In fact, I am amazed at what a good job everyone is doing.

I am also watching what is happening in the US. Every US state governor and city mayor I have seen on tv has done a wonderful job of presenting the facts to the public and provided instructions as to what they are doing and what the public should be doing.

Then there is the gong show that is Trump. I could not imagine that anyone could be as bad as he is; months of lies, denials, suppression of the truth, and a complete and utter lack of preparation for something he was warned about many times. Denying one day that the virus was a pandemic; only to claim the very next day that he had known it was a pandemic for months; and then the very next day say that no one could have seen this coming; and finally saying that his response to the virus rates a 10 out of 10.

Worst President ever. Sadly, many, many Americans are going to suffer and die because America had this moron in charge.

Mish keeps referring to worldometer to get stats from. Their numbers seem to match up with numbers I see in my own country and in the US.

Disturbingly, today, the mortality rate for closed cases ticked up 1% to 12%. 12978 deaths and 94674 recovered. That is not the direction I expected it to go.

daveyp 17 hrs

You get what you vote for. To have such a malignant narcissist of such profoundly limited intellectual honesty and capacity "leading" your nation through this is truly tragic for your country. Even the hideously vile ultimate Washington insider Hilary would have done a better job.

truthseeker 17 hrs

Mish I agree with much of the criticism of Trump, yet had he done everything you and others suggest, there is this implied assumption that everything would have worked out perfectly. You know I am impressed the way the country seems to be uniting to such a great degree, that I think there is at least some hope for our country's future though there are huge challenges that lay ahead absolutely!

abend237-04 17 hrs

I will now proceed, once again, to bitch about the root cause of our current pandemic, which is causing many to experience cosmic scale frustration with The Donald, which I share:

Civilization has now been hit squarely in the head with three killer coronavirus outbreaks in 18 years, yet still has no unified global new viral antigen detection system. We could have if our world "leaders" would make it happen.

Local supercomputers, however massive, will never crack this nut, but the billions of powerful, web-accessible smartphones could if linked and used by a parallelized, intelligent scheduler to raise the alarm when a new antibody/pathogen is discovered in human blood anywhere.

Such a system could have lifted the burden from a lonely doctor struggling to raise the alarm in Wuhan, before Covid-19 killed him, and placed it squarely in front of disease control experts, worldwide. It can be done; We must do it.

Sars cov-3/4/5/6/7/8/9/n could kill us all if we don't.

[Mar 22, 2020] Intelligence agencies and the virus

Highly recommended!
Mar 22, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

kiwiklown , Mar 22 2020 10:11 utc | 128

@Jackrabbit | Mar 21 2020 22:32 utc | 50

"These officials "failed us" in the same way that our media "fails us": they serve the interests of the EMPIRE-FIRST Deep State."

Yuppp. Our error is to assume all 17 intelligence agencies; the presstitudes; and US "leadership" exist to serve the American people. And so, yes, they "fail" the people. But, from the point of view of the controllers of those agencies and of those "leaders", they hardly ever fail !!!

While the people argue over virulent minutae, they are once again helping themselves to the US Treasury.... Trillions of USDs.... LOL

kiwiklown , Mar 22 2020 10:36 utc | 132

@Jackrabbit | Mar 21 2020 23:10 utc | 54

"Caitlin Johnstone also sees the response being manipulated to focus hate on China...."

Yuppp, blaming China, hating on China achieves several objectives:

Just look at how US leadership has been hating on Russia for the last 100 years, waiting to whack them with a sneak attack if feasible.

kiwiklown , Mar 22 2020 11:25 utc | 137
@Jackrabbit | Mar 22 2020 2:45 utc | 79

".... was then told to STOP TESTING...... A medical person would not try to suppress testing. That would be a "management decision" and its the Nation Security Council that was running the show (and which had classified all discussions related to virus preparations)...."

Thanks for reminding us of Dr Chu's story. What if the US leadership:

[Mar 22, 2020] The soccer team Manchester United has opened up its hotel free of charge for medical staff, so that they can return from work to a neutral place rather than to their families and spread the bug further.

Mar 22, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Mina , Mar 22 2020 12:57 utc | 154

Another reason for the curves in chaotic Fr/It/Sp is a point underlined by Campbell on 19/3 about
the fact the soccer team Manchester United has opened up its hotel free of charge for medical
staff, so that they can return from work to a neutral place rather than to their families and spread
the bug further. Such measures have been applied in Asia and they should have been on the mind of
the EU gov, but apparently they were too busy thinking about their luxury holidays or their shares
in the stocks.

[Mar 22, 2020] No One Was Ready Europe's Desperate Doctors Use Trash Bags As Hazmat Suits

That's stupid solution. changing clothing more often is more effective. Clothing can be disinfected with regular stream.
Mar 22, 2020 | www.zerohedge.com
Huge jumps in COVID-19 deaths and cases have been reported in the UK, Germany, Spain, Italy, and France this weekend. Hospital systems in many of these countries are running out of supplies, staff, hospital beds, and ICU-level treatments.

The shortage of protective gear for medical staff at many European hospitals has forced some to tape trash bags to their bodies as makeshift biohazard suits.

Nurses in England Wearing Trash Bags to Protect from COVID-19

Bloomberg interviewed Samantha Gonzalez,52, who works at the Txagorritxu hospital in Vitoria-Gasteiz, Alava, Spain. She warned: "This is not the first world anymore -- it's a war" amid surging virus cases in the country.

Across Europe on Saturday, deaths accorded to the fast-spreading virus soared, with Italy reporting a record 793 deaths on Friday, and Spain reporting another 300 cases, bringing their totals to 4,825 and 1,326.

The UK also reported another string of deaths, as millions await a lockdown order on London , while hospitals and intensive care units in Italy and Spain are struggling to cope, despite some Madrid hotels being temporarily converted and of the Fair of Madrid, the capital's main exhibition space.

One of the leading hospitals in Bergamo, northern Italy, the current epicenter of the virus outbreak in Europe, has run out of hospital beds, and ICU-level treatment, as an influx in patients, has overwhelmed the facility . The sick are being transferred to offsite locations, equipped with oxygen machines.

From Italy to Spain to other regions in Europe, hospital systems are at full capacity, canceling non-urgent surgeries, and appointments to handle the influx of virus patients. In a couple of weeks, countrywide shutdowns like what's happening in Italy could be the norm across many European countries.

Giovanni Rezza, head of the infectious diseases department at Rome's Superior Health Institute, said, "Italy wasn't completely prepared for the coronavirus:"

"It's only in some two weeks that Italy will find out whether the government's nationwide lockdown and social distancing rules have had an impact," said Rezza.

"The lockdown is only delaying the spread of the epidemic, we expect that there will be new outbreaks in future. But in the meantime we have to equip hospitals with more intensive care beds, even in Lombardy which is one of the best-equipped regions in Europe."

The biggest challenge for European hospital systems is having enough protective gear for medical staff.

In Spain, 3,500 Spanish doctors have contracted the virus, which is 12% of the total number of cases detected. With the lack of gear, doctors and nurses are more susceptible to contracting the virus, which could cause medical staff shortages that would undoubtedly lead to high mortality rates.

COVID-19 Map

"Just in the nephrology department, three out of 13 colleagues have fallen ill, one of them seriously," said Giuseppe Remuzzi, a former head of the department of medicine at the Papa Giovanni XXIII hospital in Bergamo, Italy, who has joined efforts to contain the pandemic. "This is a scary, terrible situation."

Medical staff have been instructed to swap out old protective gear every four hours, which includes changing face masks, splash guard googles, and biohazard suits. Since supplies are limited, doctors and nurses are making their own bio hazmat suits with taping garbage bags on their body.

"This thing blew up on us," said Pelayo Pedrero, the head of labor risk prevention at doctors' union AMYTS in Madrid, Spain. "No one was ready for this. They didn't buy the supplies, they didn't prepare the hospitals to receive and treat all these patients. Not just in Madrid or Spain, but all over Europe."

To sum up, the evolution of the virus crisis is that medical gear shortages could lead to labor shortages at hospitals across Europe because medical staff aren't adequately protected against the virus. Europe has become the new China. And in the weeks ahead, parts of the US could transform into Italy .

[Mar 22, 2020] In 1918, anyone at the emergency hospital in Boston who had contact with patients had to wear an improvised face mask.

Mar 22, 2020 | medium.com

Face Masks Coronavirus and Flu

Surgical masks are currently in short supply in China and elsewhere. They were worn 100 years ago, during the great pandemic, to try and stop the influenza virus spreading. While surgical masks may offer some protection from infection they do not seal around the face. So they don't filter out small airborne particles. In 1918, anyone at the emergency hospital in Boston who had contact with patients had to wear an improvised face mask. This comprised five layers of gauze fitted to a wire frame which covered the nose and mouth. The frame was shaped to fit the face of the wearer and prevent the gauze filter touching the mouth and nostrils. The masks were replaced every two hours; properly sterilized and with fresh gauze put on. They were a forerunner of the N95 respirators in use in hospitals today to protect medical staff against airborne infection.

... ... ...

Putting infected patients out in the sun may have helped because it inactivates the influenza virus.[7] It also kills bacteria that cause lung and other infections in hospitals.[8] During the First World War, military surgeons routinely used sunlight to heal infected wounds.[9] They knew it was a disinfectant. What they didn't know is that one advantage of placing patients outside in the sun is they can synthesise vitamin D in their skin if sunlight is strong enough. This was not discovered until the 1920s. Low vitamin D levels are now linked to respiratory infections and may increase susceptibility to influenza.[10] Also, our body's biological rhythms appear to influence how we resist infections.[11] New research suggests they can alter our inflammatory response to the flu virus.[12] As with vitamin D, at the time of the 1918 pandemic, the important part played by sunlight in synchronizing these rhythms was not known.

[Mar 22, 2020] Coronavirus and the Sun a Lesson from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic by Richard Hobday

Notable quotes:
"... The masks were replaced every two hours; properly sterilized and with fresh gauze put on. They were a forerunner of the N95 respirators in use in hospitals today to protect medical staff against airborne infection. ..."
Mar 10, 2020 | medium.com

Fresh air, sunlight and improvised face masks seemed to work a century ago; and they might help us now.

by Richard Hobday

When new, virulent diseases emerge, such SARS and Covid-19, the race begins to find new vaccines and treatments for those affected. As the current crisis unfolds, governments are enforcing quarantine and isolation, and public gatherings are being discouraged. Health officials took the same approach 100 years ago, when influenza was spreading around the world. The results were mixed. But records from the 1918 pandemic suggest one technique for dealing with influenza -- little-known today -- was effective. Some hard-won experience from the greatest pandemic in recorded history could help us in the weeks and months ahead.

<img src="https://miro.medium.com/max/2400/1*7pNa3EQCs1VsWXRWL8_Uig.jpeg" width="1200" height="892" role="presentation"/>
Influenza patients getting sunlight at the Camp Brooks emergency open-air hospital in Boston. Medical staff were not supposed to remove their masks. (National Archives)

Put simply, medics found that severely ill flu patients nursed outdoors recovered better than those treated indoors. A combination of fresh air and sunlight seems to have prevented deaths among patients; and infections among medical staff.[1] There is scientific support for this. Research shows that outdoor air is a natural disinfectant. Fresh air can kill the flu virus and other harmful germs. Equally, sunlight is germicidal and there is now evidence it can kill the flu virus.

`Open-Air' Treatment in 1918

During the great pandemic, two of the worst places to be were military barracks and troop-ships. Overcrowding and bad ventilation put soldiers and sailors at high risk of catching influenza and the other infections that often followed it.[2,3] As with the current Covid-19 outbreak, most of the victims of so-called `Spanish flu' did not die from influenza: they died of pneumonia and other complications.

When the influenza pandemic reached the East coast of the United States in 1918, the city of Boston was particularly badly hit. So the State Guard set up an emergency hospital. They took in the worst cases among sailors on ships in Boston harbour. The hospital's medical officer had noticed the most seriously ill sailors had been in badly-ventilated spaces. So he gave them as much fresh air as possible by putting them in tents. And in good weather they were taken out of their tents and put in the sun. At this time, it was common practice to put sick soldiers outdoors. Open-air therapy, as it was known, was widely used on casualties from the Western Front. And it became the treatment of choice for another common and often deadly respiratory infection of the time; tuberculosis. Patients were put outside in their beds to breathe fresh outdoor air. Or they were nursed in cross-ventilated wards with the windows open day and night. The open-air regimen remained popular until antibiotics replaced it in the 1950s.

Doctors who had first-hand experience of open-air therapy at the hospital in Boston were convinced the regimen was effective. It was adopted elsewhere. If one report is correct, it reduced deaths among hospital patients from 40 per cent to about 13 per cent.[4] According to the Surgeon General of the Massachusetts State Guard:

`The efficacy of open air treatment has been absolutely proven, and one has only to try it to discover its value.'

Fresh Air is a Disinfectant

Patients treated outdoors were less likely to be exposed to the infectious germs that are often present in conventional hospital wards. They were breathing clean air in what must have been a largely sterile environment. We know this because, in the 1960s, Ministry of Defence scientists proved that fresh air is a natural disinfectant.[5] Something in it, which they called the Open Air Factor, is far more harmful to airborne bacteria -- and the influenza virus -- than indoor air. They couldn't identify exactly what the Open Air Factor is. But they found it was effective both at night and during the daytime.

Their research also revealed that the Open Air Factor's disinfecting powers can be preserved in enclosures -- if ventilation rates are kept high enough. Significantly, the rates they identified are the same ones that cross-ventilated hospital wards, with high ceilings and big windows, were designed for.[6] But by the time the scientists made their discoveries, antibiotic therapy had replaced open-air treatment. Since then the germicidal effects of fresh air have not featured in infection control, or hospital design. Yet harmful bacteria have become increasingly resistant to antibiotics.

Sunlight and Influenza Infection

Putting infected patients out in the sun may have helped because it inactivates the influenza virus.[7] It also kills bacteria that cause lung and other infections in hospitals.[8] During the First World War, military surgeons routinely used sunlight to heal infected wounds.[9] They knew it was a disinfectant. What they didn't know is that one advantage of placing patients outside in the sun is they can synthesise vitamin D in their skin if sunlight is strong enough. This was not discovered until the 1920s. Low vitamin D levels are now linked to respiratory infections and may increase susceptibility to influenza.[10] Also, our body's biological rhythms appear to influence how we resist infections.[11] New research suggests they can alter our inflammatory response to the flu virus.[12] As with vitamin D, at the time of the 1918 pandemic, the important part played by sunlight in synchronizing these rhythms was not known.

Face Masks Coronavirus and Flu

Surgical masks are currently in short supply in China and elsewhere. They were worn 100 years ago, during the great pandemic, to try and stop the influenza virus spreading.

While surgical masks may offer some protection from infection they do not seal around the face. So they don't filter out small airborne particles.

In 1918, anyone at the emergency hospital in Boston who had contact with patients had to wear an improvised face mask. This comprised five layers of gauze fitted to a wire frame which covered the nose and mouth. The frame was shaped to fit the face of the wearer and prevent the gauze filter touching the mouth and nostrils.

The masks were replaced every two hours; properly sterilized and with fresh gauze put on. They were a forerunner of the N95 respirators in use in hospitals today to protect medical staff against airborne infection.

Temporary Hospitals

Staff at the hospital kept up high standards of personal and environmental hygiene. No doubt this played a big part in the relatively low rates of infection and deaths reported there. The speed with which their hospital and other temporary open-air facilities were erected to cope with the surge in pneumonia patients was another factor. Today, many countries are not prepared for a severe influenza pandemic.[13] Their health services will be overwhelmed if there is one. Vaccines and antiviral drugs might help. Antibiotics may be effective for pneumonia and other complications. But much of the world's population will not have access to them. If another 1918 comes, or the Covid-19 crisis gets worse, history suggests it might be prudent to have tents and pre-fabricated wards ready to deal with large numbers of seriously ill cases. Plenty of fresh air and a little sunlight might help too.

Dr. Richard Hobday is an independent researcher working in the fields of infection control, public health and building design. He is the author of `The Healing Sun'.

References

  1. Hobday RA and Cason JW. The open-air treatment of pandemic influenza. Am J Public Health 2009;99 Suppl 2:S236–42. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2008.134627.
  2. Aligne CA. Overcrowding and mortality during the influenza pandemic of 1918. Am J Public Health 2016 Apr;106(4):642–4. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2015.303018.
  3. Summers JA, Wilson N, Baker MG, Shanks GD. Mortality risk factors for pandemic influenza on New Zealand troop ship, 1918. Emerg Infect Dis 2010 Dec;16(12):1931–7. doi:10.3201/eid1612.100429.
  4. Anon. Weapons against influenza. Am J Public Health 1918 Oct;8(10):787–8. doi: 10.2105/ajph.8.10.787.
  5. May KP, Druett HA. A micro-thread technique for studying the viability of microbes in a simulated airborne state. J Gen Micro-biol 1968;51:353e66. Doi: 10.1099/00221287–51–3–353.
  6. Hobday RA. The open-air factor and infection control. J Hosp Infect 2019;103:e23-e24 doi.org/10.1016/j.jhin.2019.04.003.
  7. Schuit M, Gardner S, Wood S et al. The influence of simulated sunlight on the inactivation of influenza virus in aerosols. J Infect Dis 2020 Jan 14;221(3):372–378. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiz582.
  8. Hobday RA, Dancer SJ. Roles of sunlight and natural ventilation for controlling infection: historical and current perspectives. J Hosp Infect 2013;84:271–282. doi: 10.1016/j.jhin.2013.04.011.
  9. Hobday RA. Sunlight therapy and solar architecture. Med Hist 1997 Oct;41(4):455–72. doi:10.1017/s0025727300063043.
  10. Gruber-Bzura BM. Vitamin D and influenza-prevention or therapy? Int J Mol Sci 2018 Aug 16;19(8). pii: E2419. doi: 10.3390/ijms19082419.
  11. Costantini C, Renga G, Sellitto F, et al. Microbes in the era of circadian medicine. Front Cell Infect Microbiol. 2020 Feb 5;10:30. doi: 10.3389/fcimb.2020.00030.
  12. Sengupta S, Tang SY, Devine JC et al. Circadian control of lung inflammation in influenza infection. Nat Commun 2019 Sep 11;10(1):4107. doi: 10.1038/s41467–019–11400–9.
  13. Jester BJ, Uyeki TM, Patel A, Koonin L, Jernigan DB. 100 Years of medical countermeasures and pandemic influenza preparedness. Am J Public Health. 2018 Nov;108(11):1469–1472. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2018.304586.
7.9K 7.9K claps

Dr. Richard Hobday is an internationally recognized authority on health in the built environment.

[Mar 22, 2020] It seems that chloroquine and its use as a 'potent inhibitor of the coronavirus infection' has been known for a long time - since August 2005

Mar 22, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

alaric , Mar 22 2020 3:26 utc | 84

I see nothing wrong with testing Hyrodroxychloroquine together with azithromycin as long as its done safely and ethically to gain additional data. If it doesn't work, it doesn't work.

A lot of people are going to reject it just because it came from Trump's mouth. Drug companies will fight against it because they'd rather sell more expensive drugs.

Anti malaria drugs are part of the primary or secondary treatment recommendations in China and Korea. I'm pretty sure they were used in Japan as well so the first half of it (hydroxychloroquine) seems pretty legit though maybe not effective enough. Lets see what happens. I'd agree we lack sufficient data to make an adequate evaluation. Hydroxychloroquine is also being used with other things in trials. We'll see what happens there too.

** A dutch professor has announced an aerosol version of i believe hydroxycholoquine but it might just be chloroquine that is able to penetrate the lungs they claim. They also claim it can be manufactured immediately.

https://www.rtvnoord.nl/nieuws/220259/RUG-onderzoekt-effect-malariamedicijn-op-corona


ted01 , Mar 22 2020 4:03 utc | 87

It seems that chloroquine and its use as a 'potent inhibitor of the coronavirus infection' has been known for a long time - since August 2005.

https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1743-422X-2-69

No money for big pharma therefore no interest.
They would rather let people die.

alaric , Mar 22 2020 4:19 utc | 88
We should all certainly be skeptical of such a small study (HCQ and azithromycin) but do keep in mind that you really can't trust industry and their legion of paid doctors and experts either.

For example:

The CEO of Ericsson once said "CDMA will never work." Maybe that was because Ericsson didn't have it working for cellular systems at the time. I worked in the cell phone industry as an analyst for some time. People say anything to sell their stuff. I'm sure pharma is equally bad.

Peter AU1 , Mar 22 2020 4:35 utc | 92
ted01 "No money for big pharma therefore no interest. They would rather let people die."

That is about it. A dirt cheap generic drug can't possibly be any good. A pity so many here prefer to believe big pharma rather than the frontline doctors using it.

Peter AU1 , Mar 22 2020 5:02 utc | 94
Chinese doctors Chloroquine or Chloroquine Phosphate - Formula C18H26ClN3
Trump Hydroxychloroquine - Formula C18H26ClN3O

Two different chemicals but I take it their mode of action is similar.

Hydroxychloroquine

"The wholesale cost in the developing world is about US$4.65 per month as of 2015, when used for rheumatoid arthritis or lupus.[7] In the United States the wholesale cost of a month of treatment is about US$25 as of 2020" (wikipedia)

Chloroquine Phosphate

"The wholesale cost in the developing world is about US$0.04.[9] In the United States, it costs about US$5.30 per dose." (wikipedia)

Easy to see why Trump and big phama don't like Chloroquine.

Richard Steven Hack , Mar 22 2020 8:55 utc | 112
Link to a review of available evidence for chloroquine treatments cited:

A systematic review on the efficacy and safety of chloroquine for the treatment of COVID-19
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0883944120303907?via%3Dihub

Click the PDF link at the top of the page. 5 Pages.

Peter AU1 , Mar 22 2020 9:36 utc | 117
This from link @ Richard Steven Hack | Mar 22 2020 8:55 utc | 114

"chloroquine was highly effective in reducing viral replication, with an Effective Concentration (EC)90 of 6.90 μM that can be easily achievable with standard dosing, due to its favourable penetration in tissues, including in the lung"

Veritas X- , Mar 22 2020 9:41 utc | 119
re: Jackrabbit | Mar 22 2020 6:46 utc @ 106

You may find the following, interesting:

>>>
Brasco_Aad
@Brasco_Aad
Israeli Pharmaceutical Company Teva to send 10 million doses of hydroxychloroquine to the United states, free of charge. | The Times of Israel
Quote Tweet
Brasco_Aad
@Brasco_Aad
· Mar 20
-significant-

Swiss pharmaceutical company Novartis to donate 130 million doses of hydroxychloroquine to the United States.

50 million doses now and another 80 million doses by the end of may.

Enough to treat millions of Americas who have been infected with COVID-19 | Reuters
12:09 AM · Mar 21, 2020
https://twitter.com/Brasco_Aad/status/1241139799077117952
<<<

I don't have the time nor need to try to do any 'confirmation'.
Regards X- in Sweden

Peter AU1 , Mar 22 2020 9:57 utc | 122
Chloroquine I have noticed is also called chloroquine phosphate. Phosphate I believe is the binder that holds the chloroquine powder in tablet form. According to the paper linked by RSH @114 there is 300mg of chloroquine in a 500mg chloroquine phosphate tablet.

[Mar 22, 2020] A pretty good overview on the major avenues to attack nCOV/COVID-19 from a treatment perspective

Mar 22, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

c1ue , Mar 22 2020 14:05 utc | 171

Here's a pretty good overview on the major avenues to attack nCOV/COVID-19 from a treatment perspective: Ars Technica overview

In particular, this article talks about targeting different aspects of the nCOV life cycle and how these are targeted by treatments to attack nCOV:
1) Reproduction: remdesivir and others
2) [viral] protein processing: protease inhibitors such as HIV drugs
3) [viral] packaging: attack the final protein packaging of the virus such as a Hep B treatment - but very few such examples exist, of any kind
4) viral shell: plasma distilled from existing recovered victims used to prime immune system of ongoing infected. Vaccines will eventually enable this via manufacturing processes.
5) new infection capability: chloroquines. In particular

One of these targets is the drop in pH. This is the step that's targeted by chloroquine, the antimalarial drug. Chloroquine can cross membranes and so can enter the sac containing the virus. Once there, it can neutralize the pH.

That's significant, because many proteases are only active at lower pH. If the pH inside the sac doesn't change, it's possible that the coronavirus spike protein won't be cut and thus won't be activated. This appears to be the case in cultured cells infected by the virus, and there are anecdotal case reports of chloroquine helping COVID-19 patients.


It is also clear - from this description - why evolutionary pressures could create defenses against this type of attack (chloroquine pH change)

Again, a theoretical operation, even the clinical test tube trials, doesn't equate to effective therapy.
However, IMO, the cost and risk factor for chloroquines makes for a far better gambit than anything else at this moment in time. And note that because of the way chloroquines are supposed to affect nCOV - if chloroquines work, they have to be taken when symptoms first appear or potentially even as a preventative.
I would discourage the preventative use though - that will likely accelerate the nCOV evolution around the chloroquine pH attack.

Another reason: it appears the US only has 160,000 ventilators available Johns Hopkins estimate
of which a bit under 30K are being used for neonatal/pediatric care.
Yow.

Walter , Mar 22 2020 14:15 utc | 174

hydroxycloroquine overdose, the boffins say, can destroy the retina of the eyes.

Not a trivial side effect. Nothing to play with. Fer what it worth, better read up on the drug and pay attention. Eyes are nice to have.

Overdose of Q is Bad.

Wally read 60 years ago in Rome newspaper story that British air-line pilots, who drank their Gin an' Tonics, had been discovered to have very poor glare recovery. That, they said, was from the quinine in the tonic water. Henceforth, they were forbidden the tonic water, alas!

But Wally never drives at night and his airplane days ended back in the mists...

He's saving the quinine he's got, for now.

[Mar 22, 2020] Liberal NPCs Hate Russia, Conservative NPCs Hate China

Mar 22, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Jackrabbit , Mar 21 2020 23:10 utc | 54

Caitlin Johnstone also sees the response being manipulated to focus hate on China: Liberal NPCs Hate Russia, Conservative NPCs Hate China

But she sees this China-bashing as mostly a political reaction:

In reality these people are rallying behind the campaign to blame China for the health crisis they're now facing because they understand that otherwise the blame will land squarely on the shoulders of their president, who's running for re-election this year.
instead of a deliberate Deep-State strategy (which is my view).

We can argue who created the virus (I'm still looking for any rebuttal to the Chinese claim that USA must be the source because it has all five strains of the virus), but the Empire's gaming of the virus outbreak seems very clear to me.

!!

[Mar 22, 2020] Medics leave Wuhan after supporting the coronavirus-hit city

Mar 22, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

JC , Mar 21 2020 22:04 utc | 41

ben | Mar 21 2020 20:49 utc | 19

Best watch CGTN....

Live: Medics leave Wuhan after supporting the coronavirus-hit city

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-03-21/Live-Medics-leave-Wuhan-after-supporting-the-coronavirus-hit-city-P2dA7TKQr6/index.html

Last night watched CGTN TV with Huawei Honor smartphone.

"....team from SW China's Sichuan Province leaves Wuhan today...brings you this bittersweet goodbye."
- Worked 8-12hrs shift.... 100 plus medical workers, 57 days ago leaving spouse, children and parents behinds
- Initially none or limited N95 masks - wore double for protection..
- In capitalist USA.... Fxxk the company or country, Strike, protests...
- 16 makeshift hospitals disbanded but two 16,000 beds still in operations.

[Mar 22, 2020] Equivalent respirator standards by country

Mar 22, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Peter AU1 , Mar 21 2020 22:18 utc | 44

Equivalent respirator standards by country
. N95 (United States NIOSH-42CFR84)
• FFP2 (Europe EN 149-2001)
• KN95 (China GB2626-2006)
• P2 (Australia/New Zealand AS/NZA 1716:2012)
• Korea 1st class (Korea KMOEL - 2017-64)
• DS (Japan JMHLW-Notification 214, 2018)

I just received an email from a contact in China offering to help get FFP2 respirators if I needed or wanted any. She said KN95 were virtually non existent in China but there are limited supplies of the FFP2 respirators.

TJ , Mar 21 2020 22:29 utc | 47

@44 Peter AU1

If you or anyone else is interested in masks / respirators I would recommend watching the videos by weaponsandstuff93 on YouTube. I am no expert on the subject but on his recommendation I got myself a mask that takes 40mm NATO filters ( the mask is a Belgium BEM4 ) and some P3 level filters ( mine are Scott Pros ) this is different to 40MM GOST filters which were the Soviet standard.

[Mar 22, 2020] Make your own face masks?

Mar 22, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Ian2 , Mar 21 2020 21:04 utc | 26

Make your own face masks? Pfff...it appears the Japanese found a better idea from the Philippines government... panties . OR, you could order a custom one from Pantsu Mask . ROFL

[Mar 22, 2020] WTO stance on Covid-19 propaganda and manipulation

Returning to the Covid-19 epidemic and the way governments are reacting to it, Thierry Meyssan stresses that the authoritarian decisions of Italy and France have no medical justification. They contradict the observations of the best infectiologists and the instructions of the World Health Organization.
Mar 22, 2020 | www.voltairenet.org

In all of its messages, the WHO stressed : the low demographic impact of the epidemic; the futility of border closures; the ineffectiveness of wearing gloves, masks (except for health care workers) and certain "barrier measures" (for example, the distance of one metre only makes sense with infected people, but not with healthy people); the need to raise the level of hygiene, including hand washing, water disinfection and increased ventilation of confined spaces. Finally, use disposable tissues or, failing that, sneeze into your elbow.

However, the WHO is not a medical organization, but a United Nations agency dealing with health issues. Its officials, even if they are doctors, are also and above all politicians. It cannot therefore denounce the abuses of certain states. Furthermore, since the controversy over the H1N1 epidemic, the WHO must publicly justify all its recommendations. In 2009, it was accused of having let itself be swayed by the interests of big pharmaceutical companies and of having hastily sounded the alarm in a disproportionate manner [ 4 ]. This time it used the word "pandemic" only as a last resort, on March 12th, four months later.

[Mar 21, 2020] In hard-hit areas, testing restricted to health care workers, hospital patients

So CDC is not out of the woods yet. This is a monumental failure. And it projects on Trump and his administration.
Mar 21, 2020 | www.washingtonpost.com
As cases spike, health officials are saying the battle to contain the virus is lost and are hunkering down for an onslaught, directing scarce resources where they are needed most to save lives.

[Mar 21, 2020] The New Dark Age

Notable quotes:
"... Voltaire Network ..."
"... the Iranian population is the world's most lung-weakest. Almost all men over the age of sixty suffer from the after-effects of the US combat gases used by the Iraqi army during the First Gulf War (1980-88), as did the Germans and the French after the First World War. Any traveller to Iran has been struck by the number of serious lung ailments. ..."
"... The Diamond Princess is an Israeli-American ship, owned by Micky Arison, brother of Shari Arison, the richest woman in Israel. The Arisons are turning this incident into a public relations operation. The Trump administration and several other countries airlifted their nationals to be quarantined at home. The international press devoted its headlines to this story. Referring to the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918-1919, it asserts that the epidemic could spread throughout the world and potentially threaten the human species with extinction [ 2 ]. This apocalyptic hypothesis, not based on any facts, will nevertheless become the word of the Gospel. ..."
"... It is not known at this time whether tycoons deliberately spread panic about Covid-19, making this vulgar epidemic seem like the "end of the world". However, one distortion after another, governments have become involved. Of course, it is no longer a question of selling advertising screens by frightening people, but of dominating populations by exploiting this fear. ..."
"... Let us remember that never in history has the confinement of a healthy population been used to fight a disease. Above all, let us remember that this epidemic will have no significant consequences in terms of mortality. ..."
"... The two governments panic their populations by distributing unnecessary instructions disavowed by infectious diseases doctors: they encourage people to wear gloves and masks in all circumstances and to keep at least one metre away from any other human being. ..."
"... It is too early to say what real goal the Conte and Macron governments are pursuing. The only thing that is certain is that it is not a question of fighting Covid-19. ..."
Mar 21, 2020 | williambowles.info

Covid-19: propaganda and manipulation by Thierry Meyssan March 21, 2020 21 March 2020 -- Voltaire Network

Returning to the Covid-19 epidemic and the way governments are reacting to it, Thierry Meyssan stresses that the authoritarian decisions of Italy and France have no medical justification. They contradict the observations of the best infectiologists and the instructions of the World Health Organization.

The Chinese Prime Minister, Li Keqiang, came to lead the operations in Wuhan and restore the "celestial mandate" on January 27, 2020.

On November 17, 2019, the first case of a person infected with Covid-19 was diagnosed in Hubei Province, China. Initially, doctors tried to communicate the seriousness of the disease, but clashed with regional authorities. It was only when the number of cases increased and the population saw the seriousness of the disease that the central government intervened.

This epidemic is not statistically significant. It kills very few people, although those it does kill experience terrible respiratory distress.

Since ancient times, in Chinese culture, Heaven has given a mandate to the Emperor to govern his subjects [ 1 ]. When he withdraws it, a disaster strikes the country: epidemic, earthquake, etc. Although we are in modern times, President XI felt threatened by the mismanagement of the Hubei regional government. The Council of State therefore took matters into its own hands. It forced the population of Hubei's capital, Wuhan, to remain confined to their homes. Within days, it built hospitals; sent teams to each house to take the temperature of each inhabitant; took all potentially infected people to hospitals for testing; treated those infected with chloroquine phosphate and sent others home; and treated the critically ill with recombinant interferon Alfa 2B (IFNrec) for resuscitation. This vast operation had no public health necessity, other than to prove that the Communist Party still has the heavenly mandate.

During a press conference on Covid-19, the Iranian Deputy Minister of Health, Iraj Harirchi, appeared contaminated.

Propagation in Iran

The epidemic spreads from China to Iran in mid-February 2020. These two countries have been closely linked since ancient times. They share many common cultural elements. However, the Iranian population is the world's most lung-weakest. Almost all men over the age of sixty suffer from the after-effects of the US combat gases used by the Iraqi army during the First Gulf War (1980-88), as did the Germans and the French after the First World War. Any traveller to Iran has been struck by the number of serious lung ailments.

When air pollution in Tehran increased beyond what they could bear, schools and government offices were closed and half of the families moved to the countryside with their grandparents. This has been happening several times a year for thirty-five years and seems normal.

The government and parliament are almost exclusively composed of veterans of the Iraq-Iran war, that is, people who are extremely fragile in relation to Covid-19. So when these groups were infected, many personalities developed the disease.

In view of the US sanctions, no Western bank covers the transport of medicines. Iran found itself unable to treat the infected and care for the sick until the UAE broke the embargo and sent two planes of medical equipment.

People who would not suffer in the other country died from the first coughs due to the wounds in their lungs. As usual, the government closed schools. In addition, it deprogrammed several cultural and sporting events, but did not ban pilgrimages. Some areas have closed hotels to prevent the movement of sick people who can no longer find hospitals close to their homes.

Quarantine in Japan

On February 4, 2020, a passenger on the US cruise ship Diamond Princess was diagnosed ill from the Covid-19 and ten passengers were infected. The Japanese Minister of Health, Katsunobu Kato, then imposed a two-week quarantine on the ship in Yokohama in order to prevent the contagion from spreading to his country. In the end, out of the 3,711 people on board, the vast majority of whom are over 70 years old, there would be 7 deaths.

The Diamond Princess is an Israeli-American ship, owned by Micky Arison, brother of Shari Arison, the richest woman in Israel. The Arisons are turning this incident into a public relations operation. The Trump administration and several other countries airlifted their nationals to be quarantined at home. The international press devoted its headlines to this story. Referring to the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918-1919, it asserts that the epidemic could spread throughout the world and potentially threaten the human species with extinction [ 2 ]. This apocalyptic hypothesis, not based on any facts, will nevertheless become the word of the Gospel.

We remember that in 1898, William Hearst and Joseph Pulitzer, in order to increase the sales of their daily newspapers, published false information in order to deliberately provoke a war between the United States and the Spanish colony of Cuba. This was the beginning of "yellow journalism" (publishing anything to make money). Today it is called "fake news".

It is not known at this time whether tycoons deliberately spread panic about Covid-19, making this vulgar epidemic seem like the "end of the world". However, one distortion after another, governments have become involved. Of course, it is no longer a question of selling advertising screens by frightening people, but of dominating populations by exploiting this fear.

For the WHO Director, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, China and South Korea have set an example by generalising screening tests; a way of saying that the Italian and French methods are medical nonsense.

WHO intervention

The World Health Organization (WHO), which monitored the entire operation, noted the spread of the disease outside China. On February 11th and 12th, it organized a global forum on research and innovation on the epidemic in Geneva. At the forum, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus called in very measured terms for global collaboration [ 3 ].

In all of its messages, the WHO stressed : the low demographic impact of the epidemic; the futility of border closures; the ineffectiveness of wearing gloves, masks (except for health care workers) and certain "barrier measures" (for example, the distance of one metre only makes sense with infected people, but not with healthy people); the need to raise the level of hygiene, including hand washing, water disinfection and increased ventilation of confined spaces. Finally, use disposable tissues or, failing that, sneeze into your elbow.

However, the WHO is not a medical organization, but a United Nations agency dealing with health issues. Its officials, even if they are doctors, are also and above all politicians. It cannot therefore denounce the abuses of certain states. Furthermore, since the controversy over the H1N1 epidemic, the WHO must publicly justify all its recommendations. In 2009, it was accused of having let itself be swayed by the interests of big pharmaceutical companies and of having hastily sounded the alarm in a disproportionate manner [ 4 ]. This time it used the word "pandemic" only as a last resort, on March 12th, four months later.

At the Franco-Italian summit in Naples on February 27, the French and Italian presidents, Giuseppe Conte and Emmanuel Macron, announced that they would react together to the pandemic.

Instrumentation in Italy and France

Modern propaganda should not be limited to the publication of false news as the United Kingdom did to convince its people to enter the First World War, but should also be used in the same way as Germany did to convince its people to fight in the Second World War. The recipe is always the same: to exert psychological pressure to induce subjects to voluntarily practice acts that they know are useless, but which will lead them to lie [ 5 ]. For example, in 2001, it was common knowledge that those accused of hijacking planes on 9/11 were not on the passenger boarding lists. Yet, in shock, most accepted without question the inane accusations made by FBI Director Robert Muller against "19 hijackers". Or, as is well known, President Hussein's Iraq had only old Soviet Scud launchers with a range of up to 700 kilometers, but many Americans caulked the windows and doors of their homes to protect themselves from the deadly gases with which the evil dictator was going to attack America. This time, in the case of the Covid-19, it is the voluntary confinement in the home that forces the person who accepts it to convince himself of the veracity of the threat.

Let us remember that never in history has the confinement of a healthy population been used to fight a disease. Above all, let us remember that this epidemic will have no significant consequences in terms of mortality.

In Italy, the first step was to isolate the contaminated regions according to the principle of quarantine, and then to isolate all citizens from each other, which follows a different logic.

According to the President of the Italian Council, Giuseppe Conte, and the French President, Emmanuel Macron, the aim of confining the entire population at home is not to overcome the epidemic, but to spread it out over time so that the sick do not arrive at the same time in hospitals and saturate them. In other words, it is not a medical measure, but an exclusively administrative one. It will not reduce the number of infected people, but will postpone it in time.

In order to convince the Italians and the French of the merits of their decision, Presidents Conte and Macron first enlisted the support of committees of scientific experts. While these committees had no objection to people staying at home, they had no objection to people going about their business. Then Chairs Conte and Macron made it mandatory to have an official form to go for a walk. This document on the letterheads of the respective ministries of the interior is drawn up on honour and is not subject to any checks or sanctions.

The two governments panic their populations by distributing unnecessary instructions disavowed by infectious diseases doctors: they encourage people to wear gloves and masks in all circumstances and to keep at least one metre away from any other human being.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/8L6ehRif-v8?version=3&rel=1&fs=1&autohide=2&showsearch=0&showinfo=1&iv_load_policy=1&wmode=transparent

The French "reference daily" (sic) Le Monde, Facebook France and the French Ministry of Health undertook to censor a video of Professor Didier Raoult, one of the world's most renowned infectiologists, because by announcing the existence of a proven drug in China against Covid-19, he highlighted the lack of a medical basis for the measures taken by President Macron [ 6 ].

https://www.youtube.com/embed/n4J8kydOvbc?version=3&rel=1&fs=1&autohide=2&showsearch=0&showinfo=1&iv_load_policy=1&wmode=transparent

It is too early to say what real goal the Conte and Macron governments are pursuing. The only thing that is certain is that it is not a question of fighting Covid-19.

Thierry Meyssan

Translation

Pete Kimberley

[ 1 ] The Mandate of Heaven and The Great Ming Code, Jiang Yonglin, University of Washington Press (2011).

[ 2 ] Human Extinction and the Pandemic Imaginary, Christos Lynteris, Routledge (2020).

[ 3 ] " Nouveau coronavirus : solidarité, collaboration et mesures d'urgence au niveau mondial s'imposent ", Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Organisation mondiale de la Santé, 11 février 2020.

[ 4 ] Pandemics, Science and Policy. H1N1 and the World Health Organization, Sudeepa Abeysinghe, Plagrave Macmillan (2015).

[ 5 ] " The techniques of modern military propaganda ", by Thierry Meyssan, Translation Pete Kimberley, Voltaire Network, 18 May 2016.

[ 6 ] " "La chloroquine guérit le Covid-19" : Didier Raoult, l'infectiologue qui aurait le remède au coronavirus ", Étienne Campion, Marianne, 19 mars 2020.

[Mar 21, 2020] Air pollituion as an important factor in this virus epidemic

Mar 21, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Allen , Mar 22 2020 1:06 utc | 68

I urge everyone to read the first article that is linked. What is happening this year is decidedly NOT a unique phenomenon for Italy or elsewhere that has been cited below. You might call it an acceleration or culmination or "perfect storm" but this is not a unique situation.

I wish to stress the following:

Estimated excess deaths of 7,027, 20,259, 15,801 and 24,981 attributable to influenza epidemics in the 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17 seasons in Italy.

Anyone remember a global outcry about these excess deaths during any of these years?

Pollution; The Po river contains some of the worst waste from industrial pig farms upriver. The air quality in the Po River Valley is some of the worst only behind an area in Poland where they still use coal fired power plants in overall poor quality.

The people in N Italy have been subjected to constant bombardment of this pollution which destroys their respiratory functions and weakens their immune systems- a perfect milieu for viruses to proliferate. The same is true for those in N China and Tehran. Tehran's air quality has deteriorated dramatically since the US sanctions as they have gone to using a cheaper gas, laced with sulfur, to provide fuel for their people.

Northern Italy has one of the oldest populations and the worst air quality in Europe, which has already led to an increased number of respiratory diseases and deaths in the past and is likely an additional risk factor in the current epidemic.

According to the latest data of the Italian National Health Institute ISS, the average age of the positively-tested deceased in Italy is currently about 81 years. 10% of the deceased are over 90 years old. 90% of the deceased are over 70 years old.

The Italian Institute of Health moreover distinguishes between those who died from the coronavirus and those who died with the coronavirus. In many cases it is not yet clear whether the persons died from the virus or from their pre-existing chronic diseases or from a combination of both.

This is not a coincidence that these environmental factors have created a milieu in which all sorts of diseases can proliferate. Now capitalism will come up with the magic bullet like a vaccine or a pill to "fix" the problem- rinse and repeat if the current social order/forms of production aren't radically changed.

A virus which impacts upper respiratory functions attacking those who are vulnerable due to years of having their upper respiratory systems assaulted non-stop by heavy doses of pollutants of all varieties- that's what we are seeing. None of this is new except to the degree. In all the areas listed below, N Italy, N China, Madrid, Tehran they have been experiencing a dramatic increase in upper respiratory disease for years now.

And please don't tell me the solution is some vaccination or some great new cure that will be discovered (and profited from) by the miraculous men of modern medicine. The solution is to clean up the environment so that we are not vulnerable in the first place. Without that prepare for COVID-20 the sequel or whatever name the thoroughly bought off WHO and CDC and...wish to place upon this next "pandemic."

Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons (2013/14–2016/17 seasons)

In recent years, Italy has been registering peaks in death rates, particularly among the elderly during the winter season. Influenza epidemics have been indicated as one of the potential determinants of such an excess.

We estimated excess deaths of 7,027, 20,259, 15,801 and 24,981 attributable to influenza epidemics in the 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17, respectively, using the Goldstein index. The average annual mortality excess rate per 100,000 ranged from 11.6 to 41.2 with most of the influenza-associated deaths per year registered among the elderly.

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30328-5/fulltext

Nitrogen dioxide and fine particles are threatening Po valley air quality

https://vitesy.com/blog/air-pollution/nitrogen-dioxide-fine-particles-po-valley-air-quality/

Italy's polluted Po Valley gasps for fresh air

https://phys.org/news/2019-02-italy-polluted-po-valley-gasps.html


How a 'Toxic Cocktail' Is Posing a Troubling Health Risk in China's Cities

https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-a-toxic-cocktail-is-posing-a-troubling-health-risk-in-chinese-cities


The new study argues that smogs in China contain more ingredients than those found either in the legendary "pea-soupers" of 19th- and 20th-century Europe and North America or in modern rich-world, vehicle-generated smogs. Something new is happening: The unprecedented speed of industrialization and urbanization has combined two eras of pollution.

Investigating air quality status and air pollutant trends over the Metropolitan Area of Tehran, Iran over the past decade between 2005 and 2014


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6044178/

Overall, trends have been progressed to worsening, the number of healthy days has been declined and the number of unhealthy days has been increased in recent years.

Tehran is rated as one of the world's most polluted cities. Parts of the city are often covered by smog, making breathing difficult and causing widespread pulmonary illnesses. ... According to local officials, 3,600 people died in a single month due to the hazardous air quality.

Air Pollution, a Silent Form of Death for Tehran Citizens

https://www.iranfocus.com/en/life-in-iran/34172-air-pollution-a-silent-form-of-death-for-tehran-citizens


Madrid air pollution reaches alarming levels

You don't have to step into the street for Madrid's roads to pose a hazard to your health: air pollution from cars in the city might just knock you over. Scientists are finding links between the gases and disease.

......

According to studies by Julio Diaz, a researcher at the Carlos III Health Institute in Madrid, even small increases in air pollution can cause the number of people admitted to hospitals with circulatory and respiratory illnesses to rise.

https://www.dw.com/en/madrid-air-pollution-reaches-alarming-levels/a-16739363

[Mar 21, 2020] Vietnam is now requiring everyone to wear masks in public places.

Mar 21, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Hope , Mar 22 2020 1:02 utc | 67

There's much attention being given to how China and South Korea have reacted to the virus, but amazingly little to the response in Vietnam. The first cases in Vietnam arrived with the new lunar year, via Wuhan; quite quickly the number of cases rose to sixteen, and for several weeks stayed at that number. The Vietnamese government acted quickly, strongly and effectively, until all sixteen recovered (and the district near Hanoi which had been placed under lockdown had completed their isolation.
On March 2nd a flight from London, carrying a woman who was returning from the Milan fashion week:
"The country's 17th case, imported on a flight from London, kicked off a new wave of cases, [now nearing 100].

Even with a new wave of cases, the numbers are far from those witnessed in the western world. The issue has been taken seriously, with all suffering symptoms put in quarantine and tested, while their places of residence are locked down and sanitised. Việt Nam was one of the first nations to declare an epidemic and has been quick in its response, both in handling current cases and ensuring the spread of the virus is as limited as possible. "
- taken from https://vietnamnews.vn/life-style/expat-corner/653815/keeping-calm-and-carrying-on-viet-nam-sets-a-coronavirus-example.html

It is notable that almost all cases of infection have been brought into the country, or at one-person distance from the person bringing it into the country.

Today there has been the announcement of the seventeenth reported recovery in Vietnam. So far there has been not one death.

Points in the reaction:
Public gatherings were stopped right away - even local community Women's Day lunches.
All citizens and all foreigners are now required to report on health, on recent travel, etc.
Everyone is now required to wear masks in public places.

[Mar 21, 2020] There is NO REASON to destroy your country because of this. NONE. Something else is in play.

Mar 21, 2020 | thesaker.is

Akhmat on March 19, 2020 , · at 9:41 pm EST/EDT

Covid-19! H1N1! Names of guns on Call of Duty! Scary! I call it a Cold. The Flu killed many more than this will 2 years ago. I propose to change the name of the Flu to "Putin Plague". That will do it.

Russia has 1 death, few cases, a massive border with China, huge numbers of Chinese tourists, officials, students, etc. India has 4 deaths, a border with China, and many Chinese. How are any of you buying that?

If this was the end of the world would Putin be almost disinterested in his demeanor? Would Kadyrov laugh it off on national tv? Are the Russians that stupid or do they know something?

If this was big, Kadyrov would be in full-action. Special Corona uniform, big guns, lots of hitting the pads, plenty of screams of Akhmat Sila! Instead, he is complaining that he is bored because there are no fights to watch.

Let me tell you something that is not being discussed. Millions, yes millions, died from the Flu a few seasons back. It was horrible. Hospitals could not handle it. Yet, the media was dead silent. Zero concerns. No mention. It was just a bad Flu season and life went on for you. Maybe you buried Grandma. Maybe you were dog sick (I was and I had a Flu shot!). What you did not have was 24/7 hysteria. Hysteria is NEVER good. NEVER.

At the beginning of this year, I suddenly started getting these horrible videos from China of healthy-looking men falling face down on the street. What the ? Healthy men walking down the street and then – BAM! Straight down. They went viral. Freaked the Western world out. Millions and millions of views. We now know that IS NOT the virus. Whoever created those videos knows more than we do.

–Steps Russia Seems To Be Taking–

If a patient dies make sure to list the cause of death as whatever they were suffering from (healthy people RARELY die from this) prior to the illness.

Use regional heads (Ramzan!) to dampen any hysteria. Chechens have been told that they will die eventually why worry about a cold. Go drink some tea. Don't be a wimp. This kind of talk is dangerous to soft Europeans/Americans, but is part of the Caucasian spirit.

Get the FSB to run EVERYTHING. Rumor is it that the guy in charge of tests has been in charge of security for Putin. I promise you that the FSB is in total control of all results. If the numbers look bad – Lie. Slowly add a death here and there. Make sure that it appears that you did not let anyone die from this because of lack of equipment. This is not a health issue. This is an actual war. Yes, war. You do what you can medically, you just don't create mass hysteria. Make sense? Many countries are doing this and will be better off for this. More lives will be saved because healthy people will not be taking up space that belongs to the very sick. Hysteria is the last thing you want.

*NOTE* Have you noticed how Russians are furious with Italy while the West cries for them? The West is furious with China while Russia is happy for them. Topsy turvy world.

There is NO REASON to destroy your country because of this. NONE. Something else is in play. I can promise you that millions of Americans have it or have had it. The CDC has said this! There were no testing kits. If there are no testing kits you cannot officially die from a Call of Duty weapon.

[Mar 21, 2020] Coronavirus - A Laymans Update By Walrus

Mar 21, 2020 | turcopolier.typepad.com

Larry Kart , 20 March 2020 at 07:57 PM

FWIW, Dr. Fauci pretty much threw cold water on the Chloroquine option at today's Trump press conference, saying that no clinical trials have been conducted and leaving the impression that he was highly dubious. Again, FWIW.

P.S. I wonder how long Fauci will be welcomed onto that podium.

[Mar 20, 2020] This all reminds me of the movie 'Citizen Kane'

Mar 20, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

joetv , Mar 20 2020 1:37 utc | 257

Whether this virus jumped species or was made in a bath tub, I can't say. What I can do is count. in 2019 there were 30,000 deaths in the USA attributed to the Flu. Now, here we are in 2020 with the first quarter of the year nearing coming on, and there are less than 75 deaths traced to ncov19. So, in my estimation maybe we may record 2,000 dead this year.

Is it rational that we're watching our hard earned 401k's tank, self quarantining, suffering food shortages, told to distance, avoid our neighbors, and panic over what is little more than the common cold?

Why must the President address the nation every morning with the Dow Jones numbers flashing in sync? Why are people in hazmat suits poking around our cities spreading fear, and asking inane questions such as: do you have a cough, have you recently been to Iran, China, N. Korea or Iran? I was screened at my local VA hospital on the March 13th, and those were the questions asked of me. After saying negative a purple wrist ban was put on me and I was allowed access.

This all reminds me of the movie 'Citizen Kane'. For those old enough to remember it Orson Welles played the owner of a major newspaper. One day his headline read "WAR DECLARED IN (some fictitious country)" Consequently, the President of said fictitious country called the editor by phone, and complained that the paper had it wrong, and there wasn't any war going on in his country, and how could he. However, Orson responded quite cavalierly with something on the order of; "Why of course there is a war, because I said there is"
This theatre has gone far enough.

[Mar 20, 2020] Looking back on past pandemcs

Mar 20, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Pft , Mar 20 2020 5:07 utc | 286

Looking back

1918 Spanish Flu. WWI ongoing. 675 , 000 deaths in US (300K excess deaths based on mortality stats published at the time) , 15 million estimated worldwide deaths in 7 months. No significant impact on GDP due to war

1950-1952 Polio peak panic-Korean War. No significant economic impact. 16,000 paralysis cases, 3000 deaths annually (mostly children)

1957 -58 influenza pandemic- over 100 K deaths in half the population. Significant recession in 1958 following Eisenhower's cutting DOD spending. Cold War ramped up to boost spending. Business as usual for most people during the pandemic

1968 influenza pandemic, over 100k dead, peak Vietnam War, no significant economic impact

1976 Swine Flu- minimal deaths (dozens) Public health induced hype led to 45 million rushed to market vaccines. 450 people got Guillain-Barré syndrome from vaccines causing paralysis . No serious economic impact, business as usual except for vaccination

2003 SARS outbreak. Panic in China/Asia, 800 deaths. Significant economic disruption to Greater China region due to travel bans and quarantine measures. Iraq war began at same time. No economic impact in US

2009 H1N1 Pandemic. 12,000 estimated deaths in US. CDC recommended against testing in July. Not much panic. Country already in recession due to subprime crash. Obamacare passed in December. Arab spring followed. US government bought 229 million doses of vaccine mostly unused. Former CDC director hired by Merck probably got a nice bonus. Total cost 4 billion. About 2 billion went for vaccines,

2019- virus starts to spread in China starting from November 17. A month after Event 201 . This was attended by Dr Gao of China CDC. China covers up initially then began limited testing reporting few cases until January 18 when they expanded testing and cases spiked. . Did not quarantine Wuhan until Jan 23 allowing millions to leave city for other locations due to up upcoming Lunar New Year Holidays when everything shuts down fir 1-2 weeks anyways. Significant economic disruption and depression follow as West inflates panic among citizens with the help of MSM and altmedia to gain support for adopting Chinas draconian measures and curtailment of freedoms, with censorship sure to follow. Can another war to lift the West out of depression be far behind, or will that war be fought against the bottom 90% after lightbulbs go off and they realize they got played.

Experimental DNA changing vaccines being rushed to market. Total cost for everything will be tens of trillions. Thats a lot of pork. Helicopter money coming soon. Freedom and Democracy will be a pipe dream. That was Trumps role all along, to put the finishing touches on a 120 year program to destroy Democracy and replace it with an Elitist Dictatorship ruled by Philosopher Kings and Corporate Technocrats and enforced by the Military.

[Mar 20, 2020] Somebody please inform Donald J. Trump that the virus probably originated ourside of China

Mar 20, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

Circe , Mar 20 2020 0:34 utc | 242

Please inform Donald J. Trump that he needs to stop spreading disinformation on the Coronavirus.

Trump calls Coronavirus, the China virus and Chinese virus and blamed China for spreading it to the U.S.

Tom Cotton, the dumb as a rock Senator from Arkansas wants to go to war with China over the Coronavirus.

warmonger-tom-cotton-openly-threatens-china-claims-beijing-inflicted-coronavirus

You can't make this stuff up.

[Mar 20, 2020] Pompeo myth that USA and the West were unprepared because China withheld information about the virus.

Mar 20, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

occupatio , Mar 19 2020 20:16 utc | 161

@b Another myth to add to your collection ...

... that USA and the West were unprepared because China withheld information about the virus.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 19 2020 18:20 utc | 106

The "Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on COVID-19" states that China transparently reported the identification of virus to the WHO and the international community on January 3rd, and a WHO investigative team was invited to Wuhan a week after that.

From January 3rd, 2020, information on COVID-19 cases has been reported to WHO daily.

On January 7th, full genome sequences of the new virus were shared with WHO and the international community immediately after the pathogen was identified.

On January 10th, an expert group involving Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwanese technical experts and a World Health Organization team was invited to visit Wuhan.

From page 31 of:
https://www.who.int/d