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COVID-19 mortality

CDC distorted mortality statistics of COVID-19 epidemic in the USA

Neoliberal MSM dance around human mortality and fearmongering to get more revenue  provoked real panic. The USA government did not have a plan for coronavirus outbreak and improvises as events unfold 

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The original reaction in the United States government to the corona outbreak was surprisingly casual. And that despite multiple intelligence agencies who supposedly produce beefing for the President and other key figures of the administration (U.S. intelligence reports from January and February warned about a likely pandemic ).  Early on it was clear the older population will be hit hard, but administration did not close access to senior care centers.  They did nothing to rump up local production of masks and other clothing necessary for medical personnel to fight infection. Medics, who are in most danger among all population groups,  were not systematically trained by  Koreans (the USA has two month to do so).  Proper protocols were not established. This was the major blunder of Trump administration and the case of bureaucratic incompetence what will be studying in books. 

At the same time some facts point out that the danger of this epodemics is systematically distorted (

In the absence of data, prepare-for-the-worst reasoning leads to extreme measures of social distancing and lockdowns. Unfortunately, we do not know if these measures work. School closures, for example, may reduce transmission rates. But they may also backfire if children socialize anyhow, if school closure leads children to spend more time with susceptible elderly family members, if children at home disrupt their parents ability to work, and more. School closures may also diminish the chances of developing herd immunity in an age group that is spared serious disease.

The USA government behaviour  drastically changed in March 11 with Trump's surprise announcement of cancelling air travel from EU countries for 30 days. Initially GB and Ireland were excluded, which provide for strangled travelers a "window" of escape. Later they were added.  Still all this was badly planned and caused major panic with ticket prices for the last flights from EU to the USA skyrocketing.

CDC blunders is another parts of the story of bureaucratic incompetence. CDC did not launch the training of medical personnel to use protective gear, despite that the fact that the virus severely affected medical personnel in Wuhan.  There was no efforts to launch additional production of masks and ventilators domestically, despite that fact that both are known bottlenecks. There were only very limited attempt to establish the screening and mandatory quarantine of passengers in airports, arriving from international flights. There were no attempt to supply hospitals in large cities with additional ventilators, masksa.  and similar protection gear. Looks like the USA government wasted the whole February and met flaring up of infections in March unprepared.  And what is most important CDC botched the production and distribution of virus tests leaving the country without them till late March, when tesing can change nothing. Gin was out of the bottle. 

It seems the CDC, NIH and the USA privatized health care system in general was caught flat-footed as if they didn't have any plan to execute.  Currently CDC does not even provide the information about how this particular virus spreads (Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) CDC)

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[Jun 18, 2021] Manipution of death stats sure to effect of baby boom of 1946-1964

In 1954, annual births first topped four million and did not drop below that figure until 1965, when four out of ten Americans were under the age of 20. Mid-20th century baby boom - Wikipedia
Jun 18, 2021 |
E5 6 hours ago

20% more babies were born in 1946 than in 1945.

State for the record which two years you believe there will be 20% more dead boomers than the year before.

Then contemplate the truth about that.

Trade accordingly... and factor in what the government will do with that crisis. Truth? or Control?

[May 15, 2021] COVID Deaths Plummet As Excess Mortality Falls To Pre-Pandemic Levels - ZeroHedge

May 15, 2021 |

MAY 15, 2021

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

In any given year during the past decade in the United States, more than 2.5 million Americans have died - from all causes.

The number has grown in recent years, climbing from 2.59 million in 2013 to 2.85 million in 2019. This has been due partially to the US's aging population, and also due to rising obesity levels and drug overdoses . In fact, since 2010, growth rates in total deaths has exceeded population growth in every year.

In 2020, preliminary numbers suggest a jump of more than 17 percent in all-cause total deaths, rising from 2.85 million in 2019 to 3.35 million in 2020.

The increase was not all due to covid. At least one-quarter to one-third appear to be from other causes. In some cases, more than half of "excess deaths" were attributed to "underlying causes " other than covid. But whether due to untreated medical conditions (thanks to covid lockdowns), or drug overdoses, or homicides, total death increased in 2020. In other words, total excess mortality is a partial proxy for covid deaths. Whatever proportion of total deaths covid cases may comprise, it stands to reason that if total deaths decline, then covid deaths are declining also. Moreover, looking at total deaths helps cut through any controversies over whether or not deaths are properly attributed to covid.

What has been the trend with these "excess deaths" in recent months?

Well, according to data through mid-March reported by Our World in Data and by the Human Mortality Database, excess mortality began to plummet in early January and is now back to levels below the 2015-2019 average:

Excess mortality peaked the week of January 3 and then it began to collapse, dropping back to summer 2020 levels by mid February. By March 14, excess mortality was at 1 percent above the 2015-2019 average. All this occurred even as very few Americans were vaccinated. When excess deaths began to drop, less than one percent of Americans had been fully vaccinated . At the end of January, less than tw o percent of Americans had been fully vaccinated. By the end of March, when excess mortality returned to 2019 levels, 15 percent of the population had been fully vaccinated.

As of May 11, only one-third of Americans had been fully vaccinated, although "experts" insist 60 to 70 percent of the population must be vaccinated before we can expect to see a drop-off in deaths like that which occurred earlier this year.

Yet, as of the week of March 22 -- excess mortality was below both the 2015-2019 average and below the total for the last year before the official beginning of the covid pandemic (2019).

It's likely these facts won't stop "public health" bureaucrats from continuing to insist that another "wave" of covid deaths and cases is right around the corner. These activists have many strategies for pushing vaccine passports, mask mandates, and even continual precautionary business closures. They'll tell us that new covid variants are sweeping the globe. This is what they were saying in January, for instance, when Vox was telling us it was too dangerous to even visit the grocery store . At least one expert in late January warned us that the coming weeks would be " the darkest weeks of the pandemic ."

It's now clear such predictions were spectacularly wrong. By late January, totals deaths were already in precipitous decline.

But what about the lag in data? We're only looking at data up to mid-March because it tends to take several weeks for estimates of total deaths to become reasonably reliable. Yes, that data shows a big drop off. But what about the numbers for April and May? Should we expect those death totals to surge again with a promised "fourth wave" of new covid death?

If we consider the more recent case and death totals attributed to covid, we see few signs of a new surge.

Although Anthony Fauci and other government employed technocrats have been unable to provide any explanation at all for it , the fact remains that months after Texas and Florida and Georgia have either abolished or greatly scaled back all social-distancing and mask mandates, cases and deaths are generally declining, and total deaths per million (attributed to covid) remain below what we've seen in states with severe lockdowns.

The trend in the United States overall is similar. Indeed, it appears that nearly all states have seen sizable drops in both cases and deaths, regardless of the mask or social-distancing policies in place.

Notably, it's only in recent weeks that "CDC guidelines" are beginning to admit the reality. It wasn't until April 26 that the CDC declared that fully vaccinated Americans are allowed to venture outside without masks on . The CDC states these "recommendations" unironically as if it weren't the case that most Americans -- outside of true-believer hotspots like San Francisco and Chicago -- stopped wearing masks outside a long time ago. The hermetically sealed world of government employees and corporate journalists appears unaware that at least half the country pretty much went back to normal last fall.

So now what?

The technocrats know that they need to keep pressing hard for more de facto vaccine mandates -- pushed mostly by corporate America for low-risk younger populations. Most Americans can already see that covid numbers are already in decline in spite of months of Americans flouting mask mandates and social distancing guidelines. People can see that children -- an increasing number of whom are returning to schools -- aren't a significant factor in the spread of disease. So it will be important for the regime to push vaccines for children more aggressively before people stop listening to the "experts" completely.

Don't expect the regime to admit it has been wrong about anything. If anything, it will double down on the usual narrative. It's worked pretty well so far.

man_hammer 2 minutes ago (Edited) remove link

What excess death rate ?

2020 8.9 1.19 %

2019 8.8 1.29 %

2018 8.7 1.35 %

2017 8.6 1.37 %

2016 8.5 1.31 %

2015 8.4 1.21 %

2014 8.3 1.02 %

2013 8.2 0.82 %

2012 8.1 0.54 %

Net increase of deaths is zero

alexcojones 1 hour ago remove link

Covidiots (noun)

So-called experts, pseudo scientists, and fake media pundits were on TV, comparing Covid-19 to the Spanish Flu of 1918 when the lockdowns began. Compare:
The so-called Spanish Flu of 1918: Went from February 1918 to April 1920 or 26 months. It killed an estimated 50 million war-weakened people in a world with a then population of 1.8 billion.

If we adjusted for the world population increase and for Covid-19 to be as deadly as the Spanish Flu, C-19 would have killed roughly 216 million people (50 million x 4.3 to offset for the increase of population = 216 million).
At present and using population increase it appears that Covid-19 is only 1% as deadly as the Spanish Flu. Even if not adjusting for the massive population increase its still only about 4.2% as deadly as the Spanish Flu.

Plandemic or Scamdemic, you choose

JaxPavan 1 hour ago

Take a look at the CDC total death figures for 2020. It's the only year they publish CDC "predictions" instead of what the states actually reported. That's right, CDC is "predicting" the past in 2020. Fact is the real overall mortality probably didn't budge much in 2020.

Lying sacks of excrement.

2thelastman 8 minutes ago

I wouldn't believe anything "science" tells us any longer. Throw all the charts at me you want to, you've lied so often about so much so completely that you have zero credibility left. None, nada, nicto.

The communists have accomplished that much.

[Feb 03, 2021] Extra death stats sugessts the the pandemic was overblown

Feb 03, 2021 |

A British View of the Imposture NICK KOLLERSTROM JANUARY 25, 2021 3,300 WORDS 222 COMMENTS REPLY Tweet Reddit Share Share Email Print More RSS

2020 saw 14% more deaths than average, last year in England & Wales and that amounted to seventy-five thousand extra deaths. We here use the Office of National statistics figures, as it gives total weekly deaths, plus also for comparison an average value of corresponding weekly deaths over the previous five years. [1]

That compares with the figure of ninety thousand deaths for the entire United Kingdom, due allegedly to covid-19.

We here ask and answer the question, what caused that excess of deaths ? The answer will not be certain, but will be the simplest possible explanation. By Occam's razor we are obliged to take it.

For the first quarter of last year, deaths in England and Wales were down : for whatever reason, overall weekly mortality was 3% below the yearly average. Then around the spring equinox on March 23 rd Lockdown was announced and suddenly, deaths surged right up so that thousands of extra deaths started happening week after week. That continued all through April and May and then finally, in the first week of June Britons were allowed out again: with relief we could walk the streets and parks, cafes and pubs opened up again.

Those months of Lockdown saw fifty-nine thousand excess deaths (see graph). That comes from counting the eleven weeks ending 27 March to the 5 th June, as being the lockdown period.

The question arises as to what caused them? Could it have been, for example, the shock? The month of April averaged ninety percent more deaths than usual! Then May was not quite so bad, as folk got used to the grim new reality.

In the weeks after the Lockdown i.e. after the first week of June the whole excess of deaths suddenly vanished. Over the next four months deaths remained exactly average compared to previous years.

The graph shows this distinct, three-stage process.

OBNS data for weeks ending
3rd Jan to 20th March 12 weeks 138,916 143,738 -4,822 -3%
27 March to 5 June 11 weeks 168,396 109,703 +58,693 +54% LOCKDOWN
12 June to 9 Oct 18 weeks 166,392 165,808 +584 0%

These figures suggest that it is the lockdown itself and not any virus, that caused the excess deaths.

We're here reminded of a careful survey done last May which found that, in all countries with reliable death-figures, their increase in mortality began after the lockdown was imposed and not before. There is a very simple difference between cause and effect: the cause comes first, before the effect!

A second Lockdown was imposed over the month of November. This lacked the same terror and shock value of the first and so only reached a net 18% excess of mortality: for the five weeks from week ending 6 November to that of 4th December there were nine thousand excess deaths, compared to the seasonal average.

Figure: weekly data from the Office of National Statistics for 2020, comparing total mortality per week with an estimated average from the previous five years.

After the autumn equinox as the nights grew longer the government again started to terrorise the population with talk of the 'dark winter' to come. Somehow they knew that a 'second wave' was coming, and so there would have to be a 'second lockdown' and no Christmas. Here's what I said in a podcast on 20 th October :

They are trying to resuscitate another big scare, trying to claim there is a second wave come this autumn, they have started drumming up fear again, they have imposed these levels of Lockdown which are rather terrifying. A lot of stress they are putting on people, I've been wondering, are the deaths going to go up again like last time?

Did that happen? The figures show as before a surge around the time of the lockdown and just before it, however this time it did not vanish after the lockdown. That's because there was not really any easing up. On the contrary yet more draconian measures were announced, with the unheard-of measure of police stopping people walking outdoors, to ask them if they had good reason to be out of their house? Meeting friends was forbidden, etc. That pressure pushed up the mortality even more and we here especially note the 'Christmas week' ending 25 th December, with a whopping 45% excess mortality. That is not a merry Christmas, it's an extra three and a half thousand people popping off (as compared to previous years) in a week, caused presumably by shock and despair of Xmas being cancelled. The week after that it was still very high, 26% excess, as folk faced the bleak new year.

It helps to express that excess mortality as overall monthly means, for the last few months of 2020. Thus taking each month as a whole and selecting four weeks of data for each month:

September from weeks ending 11 Sept to 2 Oct. +4%
October 9 Oct to 30th Oct +7%
November 6 Nov to 27 Nov +18%
December 4 Dec to 1st Jan +21%

Slowly the excess deaths (comparing, as before, with previous years) have increased through the autumn and winter. The month of December had ten thousand extra deaths. Should one take the government's view, that these deaths were caused by the CV19 virus, and that the increasingly severe restrictions were a necessary response to 'contain' the spread of this virus? A simpler hypothesis would be that there is no virus killing people, whereas the stress of bankruptcy, solitude, loneliness, etc. imposed by government edicts really has been killing people. Thus for example 'tier 4' was announced on 19 th December for large parts of England and that resulted in the highest mortality for the week following. That knockout blow to everyone's Christmas – never banned since the days of Oliver Cromwell – had the deep impact, driving up the mortality index.

Overall it would appear to be the government's lockdown policy that has been killing people and not some new disease. Stress, loneliness, fear and despair have been causing the excess of deaths: together with emptying out of hospitals, especially of old folk and cancellation of normal services because of the 'pandemic.' If the government knows this, then it is a population-reduction program.

A recent US CDC report agreed with the approach we've here taken, that the significance of CV19 can only be appreciated in terms of total mortality. Published on the John Hopkins University website on 22 nd November (but soon removed), it endorses the view that no virus is killing people, any more than normal flu, whereas deaths from other causes are being re-classified as Covid19:

According to new data, the U.S. currently ranks first in total COVID-19 cases, new cases per day and deaths. Genevieve Briand, assistant program director of the Applied Economics master's degree program at Hopkins, critically analyzed the effect of COVID-19 on U.S. deaths using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in her webinar titled "COVID-19 Deaths: A Look at U.S. Data."

From mid-March to mid-September, U.S. total deaths have reached 1.7 million, of which 200,000, or 12% of total deaths, are COVID-19-related. Instead of looking directly at COVID-19 deaths, Briand focused on total deaths per age group and per cause of death in the U.S. and used this information to shed light on the effects of COVID-19.

She explained that the significance of COVID-19 on U.S. deaths can be fully understood only through comparison to the number of total deaths in the United States.

After retrieving data on the CDC website, Briand compiled a graph representing percentages of total deaths per age category from early February to early September, which includes the period from before COVID-19 was detected in the U.S. to after infection rates soared.

Surprisingly, the deaths of older people stayed the same before and after COVID-19. Since COVID-19 mainly affects the elderly, experts expected an increase in the percentage of deaths in older age groups. However, this increase is not seen from the CDC data. In fact, the percentages of deaths among all age groups remain relatively the same.

"The reason we have a higher number of reported COVID-19 deaths among older individuals than younger individuals is simply because every day in the U.S. older individuals die in higher numbers than younger individuals," Briand said.

Briand also noted that 50,000 to 70,000 deaths are seen both before and after COVID-19, indicating that this number of deaths was normal long before COVID-19 emerged. Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths.

These data analyses suggest that in contrast to most people's assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States

When Briand looked at the 2020 data during that seasonal period, COVID-19-related deaths exceeded deaths from heart diseases. This was highly unusual since heart disease has always prevailed as the leading cause of deaths. However, when taking a closer look at the death numbers, she noted something strange. As Briand compared the number of deaths per cause during that period in 2020 to 2018, she noticed that instead of the expected drastic increase across all causes, there was a significant decrease in deaths due to heart disease. Even more surprising, as seen in the graph below, this sudden decline in deaths is observed for all other causes.

This trend is completely contrary to the pattern observed in all previous years. Interestingly, as depicted in the table below , the total decrease in deaths by other causes almost exactly equals the increase in deaths by COVID-19. This suggests, according to Briand, that the COVID-19 death toll is misleading. Briand believes that deaths due to heart diseases, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia may instead be recategorized as being due to COVID-19.

Base on this analysis, the best way to end the ongoing mass-killing of elderly Britons would be to terminate the lockdowns and resume normal life. As Dr Simone Gold (of Frontline Doctors ) well explained , CV19 is just 'killing' elderly people who were about to die anyhow. It cannot be shown that 'having' CV19 i.e. testing PCR-'positive' contributed to shortening their life. So that isn't a causal connection, i.e. the alleged illness has not 'caused' their death. That's why the age-distribution of CV-19 is indistinguishable from that of the normal population.

The average age of death in England & Wales is 81.5 years, while the average age of 'Covid-19 fatalities' is 82.4 years (ONS data). What this tells us is very simple: the disease does not exist.

The concept of PCR 'testing' has always been fraudulent . The so-called PCR 'test' multiplies up fragments of nucleotide-chains and the number of 'positive' cases depends on the multiplication factor used as well as how many persons are tested. There will never come a time when the virus is 'cured' or 'solved' or whatever people imagine the government is trying to do (if it knows!), such that the PCR test ceases to generate 'positive' tests. No-one will ever give you evidence that people who test 'positive' get ill more often than others. Is there an aim of government policy, aside from terrorising the populace? Is it to kill the virus? That can never happen because the virus isn't alive.

he World Health Organization has now backtracked over the PCR 'test', saying (January 13 th ) it is merely a diagnostic tool that can assist. It now advises –

Where test results do not correspond with the clinical presentation, a new specimen should be taken and retested using the same or different NAT technology.

In other words, a single PCR test should not be used for diagnosing Sars-Cov-2 infection. It's merely a guide!

Most PCR assays are indicated as an aid for diagnosis, therefore, health care providers must consider any result in combination with timing of sampling, specimen type, assay specifics, clinical observations, patient history, confirmed status of any contacts, and epidemiological information.

So we finally have it that the PCR cannot be relied upon a diagnostic test. Which is exactly what its inventor Kary Mullis said. So forget all of the figures you've heard about 'cases' and 'covid deaths' – they cannot be relied upon.

If one did want to believe there was a disease associated with this virus, then surely we'd agree with Dr Alexander Myasnikov, appointed last year as Russia's chief medical advisor. In an interview he explained how the world had greatly over-reacted to the CV19 story and death numbers in the West were greatly over-counted. He added:

"It's all exaggerated. It's an acute respiratory disease with minimal mortality."

Thus the former Chief Medical Officer of Ontario has recently challenged his government's policy saying, "We're Being Locked-down for an Infection Fatality Rate of Less than 0.2%?" and the lockdown is not "supported by strong science." He here means, that for those who test PCR-positive one in five hundred will die. The time-period here involved needs to be defined, eg it could be one month: we all die, and given the median age of alleged-CV19 deaths is around 80 that could well be a normal rate of mortality – especially if they are PCR-testing everyone admitted to hospitals.

Last November a Cornish nurse went public, saying the hospital wards had been empty over months when it was claimed they were overflowing. She said whenever they had flu patients they were classified as Covid: 'flu and Covid cases are now recorded as 'the same thing' on death certificates.' . That wouldn't be necessary if the disease really existed. Not surprisingly, the flu this winter has mysteriously vanished . One woman who walked round her local hospital filming its empty wards was arrested by police entering her home the next day.

The virus itself cannot be shown to exist, by which we mean that it cannot be reliably differentiated from all the other normal coronaviruses, that have been with us since time began. It has never been isolated, let's be clear about that. Last April an EU science department admitted :

" No virus isolates with a quantified amount of the SARS-CoV-2 are currently available "

And the same thing was echoed a few months later by the US Centre for Disease Control:

" Since no quantified virus isolates of the 2019-nCoV are currently available , assays [diagnostic tests] designed for detection of the 2019-nCoV RNA were tested with characterized stocks of in vitro transcribed full length RNA " [2]

In other words, nobody can hold a test-tube or petri-dish and say, 'Here is COVID-19.' Published gene-sequences of the alleged virus are mere hypothetic constructs. Yes some disease broke out in Wuhan in November 2019 and yes the Chinese authorities published a gene-sequence allegedly of it, but so what?

Fear Porn Promotion

The government needs your fear. It wants your attention but knows that it has no prospect of improving your life in any way. Thus we have a health minister who knows nothing about health or well-being: he can get your attention by telling you that you won't be able to fly without a vaccine. They need your fear, and in the last century the government was able to arouse your fear by threatening to press the nuclear button. That doesn't work any more. The UK govts latest exercise in fear-porn advises citizens to behave as if they are ill . ('Act like you've got it') Yes, that sounds just like how to promote health.

It further promotes the diabolical idea that perfectly healthy persons can transmit disease ('anyone can spread it'). Here one could quote the WHO expert Dr Maria van Kerkhove: 'From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onwards to a secondary individual. Its very rare.' (Head of the WHO Emerging disease and zoonosis unit at a news briefing from the UN agency's headquarters at Geneva, 6.6.20). Admittedly she was pressured to backpedal and retract, but she did say it. [3]

In the words of the Daily Mail , 'Terrifying new TV ads' are being promoted by the Government (23 Jan 2021) The above fear-porn promotion is through the US media agency Omnigov, who signed a 110 million Lockdown advertising deal – on March 2 nd , three weeks before the Lockdown.

The journalist Neil Clark commented [4] on 'the report in the Daily Telegraph newspaper that the UK government struck a deal worth £119m with an American advertising company, OMD Group, urging people to 'Stay Home, Stay Safe' a full three weeks before Boris Johnson ordered a lockdown. Think about what this means.' That meme 'Stay home Stay safe' would have been blueprinted the previous year at the US 'Event 201' by Bill Gates et. al. Fear blocks out rational, coherent thought which is why the government needs it.

People may be forgetting how debilitating winter flu can be and how it can last for weeks. Now they want to call it COVID. Let's here support Prof. Dolores Cahill, who has been looking at the sequencing of PCR testing. In Ireland it was found that of fifteen hundred PCR tests 'all of them were influenza A and B, not one of them were SARS-COV2.' Her group will be seeking legal action where the tests come back as influenza rather than the specific CV19 and doctors can be sued for medical negligence. ( Corbett Report, 23 mins) That sounds like a promising way of dealing with this phantomic virus.

'Is this an epidemic of despair?' asked that perceptive commentator Peter Hitchins . Scientists are trained not to take notice of emotions and instead to look for things, objects as causative agents, whereas here we agree with Peter Hitchens that the negative soul-conditions of the populace caused by government policies are leading to death. Hitchens' article quotes the distinguished professor of medical microbiology, Sucharit Bhakdi:

'He said that older people had the right to make efforts to stay fit, active, busy and healthy. But he warned that the shutdown of society would condemn them to early death by preventing this.

'Social contacts and social events, theatre and music, travel and holiday recreation, sports and hobbies, all help to prolong their stay on earth. The life expectancy of millions is being shortened.'

In a prediction that has turned out to be terribly accurate, he added: 'The horrifying impact on the world economy threatens the existence of countless people. The consequences for medical care are profound. Already services to patients who are in need are reduced, operations cancelled, practices empty, hospital personnel dwindling. All this will impact profoundly on our whole society.'

That is what is killing people, there is no other pandemic.

We're here concerned with UK, however for comparison let's end with a graph showing the US weekly mortality rate over 2020, showing the very same effect.

The graph shown an excess of 280k deaths above normal-expected levels, following the lockdown. The web-page hosting this graph states 'The large spike in deaths in April 2020 corresponds to the coronavirus outbreak.' I'm here suggesting a different view.

By Nick Kollerstrom , PhD, author of The Great British coronavirus Hoax, A Sceptics view (banned by Amazon.)


[1] Using fifty-two weeks i.e. 364 days of the year, from the week ending 3 rd January 2020 to that of 1 st January 2021, the ONS compares a week in 2020 with the average value for 2015-9.

[2] CDC '2019-Novel Coronavirus Real-Time PCR Diagnostic Panel performance characteristics' p.39, 13.7.20. This has been scrubbed from the Web, but see BMJ response to it.

[3] A huge Chinese study of ten million around Wuhan between May and June showed 'no evidence that positive cases without symptoms spread the disease': Nature 20.11.20 'Post-lockdown SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening'.

[4] RT 'Covid-19 reverse psychology' by Neil Clarke, 28.10.20, deleted but preserved on the Hugo Talks video

[Nov 02, 2020] A significant number of countries (e.g. Austria, Denmark, Germany [partial, Hesse Berlin only], Greece, Hungary, Norway) never had any excess mortality problem.

Nov 02, 2020 |

ADKC , Nov 2 2020 3:28 utc | 76

The European Mortality Monitoring Project (EUROMOMO) has been monitoring excess mortality in Europe since 2008 for the purpose of "detecting and measuring, on a real-time basis, excess number of deaths related to influenza and other possible public health threats across participating European Countries."

EUROMOMO's key metric is called the "z-score". Briefly, z-scores remove differences due to seasons and populations so that they are directly comparable with different countries and different time periods. More details on z-scores:

What is a z-score?

The following link shows "z-scores by country":

Z-scores by country

The user can adjust the period sliders to examine any length of time between 2015 and 2020. For example, to examine the UK's z-scores for 2020 simply adjust the sliders to the range 2020-01 to end (currently 2020-42). The user will be able to see that while there was a problem with excess mortality for the period from 2020-12 to 2020-22 there has been no real problem since. Also, the user will notice that a significant number of countries (e.g. Austria, Denmark, Germany [partial, Hesse & Berlin only], Greece, Hungary, Norway) never had any excess mortality problem.

[Jul 14, 2020] C has it correct. Everything besides death rates is meaningless. Unfortunately, the deaths need to be genuine Covid deaths not just any death.

Jul 14, 2020 |

Bull Gator , Jul 14 2020 5:11 utc | 73

I am a Biomedical Scientist with expertise in this area. Made antibodies and PCR tests for a living for 35 years, I did other stuff to but I did make some World Class Antibodies and other discoveries. My gut feeling is that all of these tests are tremendously flawed and not reliable in any way to make any kind of decision for either the patient or society. It is almost impossible to create a truly specific test and and it would take a considerable amount of time and effort to get one that could be performed on large numbers of samples. At least a year or more even with a Herculean effort. So the bottom line is it is all Bull Shit at best. Garbage in Garbage out is what you have. Would you base anything in your life on information that you know is inaccurate? You would have to be intoxicated, greedy or needing sex badly to go to that place. The Scum of humanity has pushed a large number of people to that state. I think the outcome is going to be very unpleasant for many.

[Jun 23, 2020] Stanford Prof Median Infection Fatality Rate Of COVID-19 For Those Under-70 Is Just 0.04%

Jun 23, 2020 |

Stanford Prof: Median Infection Fatality Rate Of COVID-19 For Those Under-70 Is Just 0.04% by Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2020 - 22:50 Authored by Daniel Payne via,

A scientist known for his contrarian takes to dire COVID-19 predictions has released a paper claiming that antibody evidence suggests the median coronavirus infection fatality rate for those under 70 is just 0.04%.

The estimate throws into sharp relief the lopsided mortality figures for the disease, which has claimed an inordinate number of elderly people across the planet while leaving younger individuals mostly unscathed.

John Ioannidis, a professor of epidemiology and population health at Stanford University, argues in a paper published earlier this month that COVID-19 "seroprevalence studies," which measure infection rates using the presence of antibodies in blood samples, "typically show a much lower fatality than initially speculated in the earlier days of the pandemic."

"It should be appreciated," he writes in the paper, "that [the fatality rate] is not a fixed physical constant and it can vary substantially across locations, depending on the population structure, the case-mix of infected and deceased individuals and other, local factors. "

In the paper, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, Ioannidis surveyed 23 different seroprevalence studies and found that "among people <70 years old, infection fatality rates ranged from ... 0.00-0.23% with median of 0.04%."

The median fatality rate of all cases, he writes, is 0.26%, significantly lower than some earlier estimates that suggested rates as high as over 3%.

In the paper, Ioannidis acknowledges that "while COVID-19 is a formidable threat," the apparently low fatality rate compared to earlier estimates "is a welcome piece of evidence."

"Decision-makers can use measures that will try to avert having the virus infect people and settings who are at high risk of severe outcomes," he writes.

"These measures may be possible to be far more precise and tailored to specific high- risk individuals and settings than blind lockdown of the entire society."

[May 27, 2020] The CDC Slashed The COVID-19 Fatality Rate To A Fraction Of Earlier Estimate Used To Justify Lockdowns

May 27, 2020 |

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

Governments throughout the world and across the US justified extreme, draconian, undemocratic, and unconstitutional (in most US states) "lockdown" and stay-at-home orders on the grounds that the COVID-19 virus was exceptionally fatal.

In March, the World Health Organization (WHO) was claiming that the fatality rate was a very high 3.4 percent .

Yet as time went on, it became increasingly clear that such high estimates were essentially meaningless because researchers had no idea how many people were actually infected with the disease. Tests were largely being conducted on those with symptoms serious enough to end up in emergency rooms or doctor's offices.

By late April, many researchers were publishing new studies showing that the number of people with the disease was actually much higher than was previously thought. Thus, it became clear that the percentage of people with the disease who died from it suddenly became much smaller.

Now, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has released new estimates suggesting that the real fatality rate is around 0.26 percent.

Specifically, the report concludes that the "symptomatic case fatality ratio" is 0.4 percent. But that's just symptomatic cases. In the same report, the CDC also claims that 35 percent of all cases are asymptomatic.

Or, as the Washington Post reported this week:

The agency offered a "current best estimate" of 0.4 percent. The agency also gave a best estimate that 35 percent of people infected never develop symptoms. Those numbers when put together would produce an infection fatality rate of 0.26, which is lower than many of the estimates produced by scientists and modelers to date."

Of course, not all scientists have been wrong on this. Back in March, Stanford scientist John Ioannidis was much, much closer to the CDC's estimate than the WHO. The Wall Street Journal noted in April :

In a March article for Stat News, Dr. Ioannidis argued that Covid-19 is far less deadly than modelers were assuming. He considered the experience of the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which was quarantined Feb. 4 in Japan. Nine of 700 infected passengers and crew died. Based on the demographics of the ship's population, Dr. Ioannidis estimated that the U.S. fatality rate could be as low as 0.025% to 0.625% and put the upper bound at 0.05% to 1% -- comparable to that of seasonal flu.

Not that this will settle the matter.

Proponents of destroying human rights and the rule of law in order to carry out lockdowns will continue to insist that "we didn't know" what the fatality rate was back in March. The lack of evidence, however, didn't stop proponents of lockdowns from implementing policies that destroyed the ability of families to earn a living, and which also created social conditions that caused child abuse and suicides to spike.

But for more sane people, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Those who have claimed that lockdowns are "the only option" had virtually no evidence at all to support their position. Indeed, such extreme over-the-top measures such as the general lockdowns required an extreme level of high-quality, nearly irrefutable evidence that lockdowns would work and were necessary in the face of a disease with an extremely high fatality rate. But the only "data" the prolockdown people could offer was speculation and hyperbolic predictions of bodies piling up in the streets.

But that became politically unimportant.

The people who wanted lockdowns had gained the obeisance of powerful people in government institutions and in the media . So actual data, science, or respect for human rights suddenly became meaningless. All that mattered was getting those lockdowns. So the lockdown crowd destroyed the lives of millions in the developed world -- and more than a hundred million in the developing world -- to satisfy the hunches of a tiny handful of politicians and technocrats.

[May 26, 2020] Any "nationwide" statistics for the virus without exclusion of the NY metropolitan area for the USA is big fat lie. At least it is clear that it distorts the picture for the rest of the country.

May 26, 2020 |
  1. likbez , May 26, 2020 7:48 pm

    How does that affect this specifically? What we see is that the US has a slower decline in cases than these other nations.

    My point is the form of the curve in the USA was partially distorted by the NY metropolitan areas with its huge and very specific problems and demographics. This area accounts for around 40% of cases.

    Death per million normalize the number of death for the population of the whole county and that's it.

    But my pint is that the USA is not homogeneous country and will never be.

    In this sense any "nationwide" statistics for the virus without exclusion of the NY metropolitan area for the USA is big fat lie. At least it is clear that it distorts the picture for the rest of the country.

    We have core inflation which exclude food and energy, why we can't have death without NY metropolitan area?

    Another important point that the number of death as a statistics is another one big and fat lie. Or at least is very suspect. I would like to stress that only the difference between number of death for the particular period and average for several previous years has scientific value. Not the absolute number.

    And what is interesting that for March 2020 COVID-19 epidemic was a lives saver. Such an interesting paradox.

    There are essentially two outcomes of COVID-19 -- one in this pneumonia does not develop, and the second in which virus pneumonia develops.

    The only way to die from the virus is to die from virus pneumonia or complications (including organs failures due to the lack of oxygen).

    Everything else (including gunshot wounds 😉 belongs to "with COVID-19" category and in the USA constitutes probably 80% of reported COVID-19 deaths. In other words, most of deaths reported are very sick people with significant percentage already of the death bed.

    For people at the end of their life scan coronavirus is often the last straw that break the camel back, so to speak. Cutting this lifespan for several months or a couple of years at best.

    And there is nothing special for this role of coronavirus. Flu acts exactly the same way: pneumonia as a flu complication is one of the most common ways for the old sick people to meet the creator.

    Unfortunately we know very little about conditions in which pneumonia develops (there are probably some generic markers in play as well as sex and a couple of other metrics ) other that the main victims are obese (often morbidly obese), diabetics (which in the USA is almost synonym with obesity) and hypertonics (those are intersecting categories).

    Chances for everybody else to get this (very dangerous indeed) virus pneumonia are approx. 100-1000 times less.

[May 26, 2020] Death normalized to population zise (aka death per million)

May 26, 2020 |

S , May 26 2020 18:23 utc | 75

Britain has had the second highest number of deaths from Covid-19 so far, 36.875 according to the current count.

Relative to population, it is currently only the fifth:

   #  Country         Deaths /

   1  San Marino         1,251
   2  Belgium              808
   3  Andorra              658
   4  Spain                570
   5  United Kingdom       557
   6  Italy                546
   7  France               424
   8  Sweden               390
   9  Netherlands          335
  10  Ireland              326
  11  United States        298
      Russia                25
      China                  3

[May 26, 2020] CDC Confirms Remarkably Low Death Rate - Media Chooses To Ignore COVID-19 Realities -

May 26, 2020 |

For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%.

Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% - almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.

We destroyed our entire country and suspended democracy all for a lie, and these people perpetrated the unscientific degree of panic. Will they ever admit the grave consequences of their error?

sybaris , 3 minutes ago remove link

I believe the CDC has lied from the start, and will continue to lie for one goal in mind, making certain enough people fall ill to make any vaccine regiment they cook up mandatory (because of the sudden realization of bad numbers) do not trust a word these people say, they are proven liars. Sars 1 circa 2003 had a cfr of 15%, sars-cov-2 is a variant of the first one, in a year the true cfr will actually be known, sure as hell won't be known now with this limited data set, and that is why this seemingly good news is extremely deceptive......

FinkPloyd, 52 minutes ago


§ Estimates only include onset dates between March 1, 2020 – March 31, 2020 to ensure cases have had sufficient time to observe the outcome (hospital admission or death).

¶ Estimates only include hospital admission dates between March 1, 2020 – March 31, 2020 to ensure cases have had sufficient time to observe the outcome (hospital discharge or death).

** Estimates only include death dates between March 1, 2020 – March 31, 2020 to ensure sufficient time for reporting.

This Scenario represents a current best estimate about viral transmission and disease severity in the United States, with the same caveat: that the parameter values will change as more data become available.

Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19.

Flynt2142ahh, 1 hour ago (Edited)

Weak dumb decaden society ... where to start - Intellectually lazy media and public plus weak analysis skills across board coupled with a culture that likes a quick fix and fast takes - you get snow-pocalypses that turn into light dustings with school closures that you and I know are total BS... and now you get fake pandemics. In a society that needs to ask if you are glutten free or are you non binary... or for some strange reason these upright walking sapiens need to "save" a billion year old planet from what I am not entirely sure of - cuz the math of those models is crap too -whoops said the quiet part out loud.. (last i checked it was not climate that blew up the world trade back on 9/11 ) ... losing faith in humanity here... and those in the media carrying water for the chicoms & W.H.O need to relocate to the China and enjoy their version of freedom and liberty..

TruthDetector, 1 hour ago (Edited)

“ We destroyed our entire country and suspended democracy all for a lie, and these people perpetrated the unscientific degree of panic ( for this plannedemic ).

Will they ever admit the grave consequences of their error?”

I’ve got a dollar that says the only substantive thing we’ll ever hear from the Fake Stream Media (FSM) is...


Any one willing to wager $1 against my prediction?

Patmos, 1 hour ago remove link

So basically it should have been what’s been known since very early on:

Isolate the elderly and the infirm, maybe recommend masks as part of that protection plan especially if you’re going to be around that vulnerable subset, so that if you got it you don’t give it to them.

Instead we got:

Be very afraid, because the Bill Gates funded WHO said so, and oh yeah also take this vaccine which helps pad Bill Gates’ coffers.

[May 24, 2020] 'How Could the CDC Make That Mistake?' The government's disease-fighting agency is conflating viral and antibody tests, compromising a few crucial metrics that governors depend on to reopen their economies. Pennsylvania, Georgia, Texas, and other states are doing the same.

Notable quotes:
"... "According to CDC, the disease of obesity affects about 78 million Americans 1 and the ASMBS estimates about 24 million have severe or morbid obesity." ..."
May 24, 2020 |

Richard Steven Hack , May 24 2020 23:54 utc | 46

And the government botching of this crisis continues...

'How Could the CDC Make That Mistake?' The government's disease-fighting agency is conflating viral and antibody tests, compromising a few crucial metrics that governors depend on to reopen their economies. Pennsylvania, Georgia, Texas, and other states are doing the same.

And overseas as well...

'Politicised nature' of lockdown debate delays Imperial report

And of course, the effect of that...

Nearly half of US states haven't contained their coronavirus outbreaks, a new study finds

And no, Sweden is not doing better...

Just 7.3% of Stockholm had Covid-19 antibodies by end of April, study shows
Official findings add to concerns about Sweden's laissez-faire strategy towards the pandemic

Finally, a large scale study on HCQ - 86,000 patients, with 15,000 receiving HCQ...

Trump drug hydroxychloroquine raises death risk in Covid patients, study says

The color of coronavirus:
COVID-19 deaths by race and ethnicity in the U.S.

Blacks are *twice* as likely to get it as whites and Latinos. American Indians are *five times* more likely to get it. They conclude the best indicator is poverty.

From The Lancet, a study of New York patients... Epidemiology, clinical course, and outcomes of critically ill adults with COVID-19 in New York City: a prospective cohort study

Between March 2 and April 1, 2020, 1150 adults were admitted to both hospitals with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, of which 257 (22%) were critically ill.

The median age of patients was 62 years (IQR 51–72), 171 (67%) were men. 212 (82%) patients had at least one chronic illness, the most common of which were hypertension (162 [63%]) and diabetes (92 [36%]).

119 (46%) patients had obesity.

As of April 28, 2020, 101 (39%) patients had died and 94 (37%) remained hospitalised.

203 (79%) patients received invasive mechanical ventilation for a median of 18 days (IQR 9–28), 170 (66%) of 257 patients received vasopressors and 79 (31%) received renal replacement therapy.

The median time to in-hospital deterioration was 3 days (IQR 1–6).

In the multivariable Cox model, older age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1·31 [1·09–1·57] per 10-year increase), chronic cardiac disease (aHR 1·76 [1·08–2·86]), chronic pulmonary disease (aHR 2·94 [1·48–5·84]), higher concentrations of interleukin-6 (aHR 1·11 [95%CI 1·02–1·20] per decile increase), and higher concentrations of D-dimer (aHR 1·10 [1·01–1·19] per decile increase) were independently associated with in-hospital mortality.

Note: 36% had diabetes; 46% were fat. Like I've said before, "diabetes" is a code word for "fat." And how many people in the US are fat and thus at risk? "According to CDC, the disease of obesity affects about 78 million Americans 1 and the ASMBS estimates about 24 million have severe or morbid obesity."

So much for "let's just isolate the elderly" we can attend our baseball games this summer and stuff ourselves with crap food...

[May 24, 2020] Preliminary Estimate of Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Outbreak -- New York City, March 11 May 2, 2020 MMWR

May 24, 2020 |

During March 11–May 2, 2020, a total of 32,107 deaths were reported to DOHMH; of these deaths, 24,172 (95% confidence interval = 22,980–25,364) were found to be in excess of the seasonal expected baseline. Included in the 24,172 deaths were 13,831 (57%) laboratory-confirmed COVID-19–associated deaths and 5,048 (21%) probable COVID-19–associated deaths, leaving 5,293 (22%) excess deaths that were not identified as either laboratory-confirmed or probable COVID-19–associated deaths ( Figure ).

[May 22, 2020] Washington officials admit to counting GUNSHOT DEATHS in Covid-19 tally, say virus death toll likely underreported despite lapses

Yes, gunshot wounds are clearly the ffect of the new coronavirus.
May 22, 2020 |

Health officials in Washington state said they are reassessing their Covid-19 fatality data, warning of underreported deaths.

Even after noting that five people who died of gunshot wounds were inexplicably included in the figures.

[May 22, 2020] Mortality due to COVID-19 in the USA

May 22, 2020 |

TRM , says: Show Comment Next New Comment May 21, 2020 at 10:53 pm GMT

Connecticut and North Carolina are missing some weeks in 2020 (5 weeks & 3 weeks respectively). Pennsylvania is also negative but not missing any weeks. Interesting, I'll have to look into that.

The entire USA is about 4.5% higher than the 4 year average.

In some online discussions some were suggesting using "excess deaths" to see what effect the covid-19 disease is having and I thought that would be a reasonable approach as it gets past the deaths "with/from" issue.

State 2016-19-Av 2020 Diff
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -
Entire USA 915946 956410 40464

California 88731 91453 2722
Florida 65372 68427 3055
Georgia 26955 27649 694
Illinois 35539 38088 2549
Massachusetts 19074 21800 2726
Michigan 31957 35598 3640
New Jersey 24525 32600 8075
New York State 33187 39267 6079
New York City 17614 35524 17910
Pennsylvania 44275 37383 -6892

All the data is from this CDC page:

The script and all related files are here if you want to kick the tires:

The script generates data for all 50 states plus DC and New York City (CDC treats it separately from New York State).

I follow the advice of Ken Thompson, "When in doubt use brute force". The script is nothing fancy and dumps to file a lot as that is how I like to debug.

I will be doing up a Powershell script for this as well so the Windows folks can run it natively if they don't have WSL2 or a Linux system around.

[May 21, 2020] The most recent CDC COVID-19 mortality data

May 21, 2020 |

Don Bacon , May 19 2020 18:05 utc | 134

From the most recent CDC COVID-19 mortality data report, Feb 1 to May 16:
> US deaths 62,515 [which are inflated, and yet comparable to annual flu deaths]
> US deaths from all causes – 97% of expected deaths. [i.e. no 'excess' deaths] . . here
> The media currently reports 90,694 deaths which they get from Johns Hopkins. That's an organization which ought to be examined. CDC data is not used by the media, but CDC doesn't have a great record either:
> CDC estimates that, from October 1, 2019, through March 28, 2020, there have been 24,000 – 63,000 flu deaths . . here
> For 2017-2018, the CDC first estimated 80,000 flu deaths, then later reduced the estimate (their word) to 61,000.
> In the news now: San Diego County California public health first reported 194 Covid deaths out of a population of 3.3 million. After autopsies and testing of tissue, health department reported only 6 of the 194 actually died of Covid.
> Meanwhile the lives of millions of people of all ages have been adversely affected.
> But hey, the banks have more money.

[May 14, 2020] About the distinction "of COVID-19" and "with COVID-19"

May 14, 2020 |

Hidari 05.06.20 at 4:22 pm 9 ( 9 )


The distinction between 'with' and 'of' is self-evident bullshit, if you just think about HIV and how it acts and what it does.

You just need to think it through: how could you possibly tell the difference?

Lots of semi-educated, semi-smart people are drawing this tenuous distinction vis a vis Covid-19 that they would not dare to do with any other disease ('Oh no the real cause of his illness was Kaposi sarcoma. It just happened to be an unfortunate coincidence that the patient was HIV positive as well'.)

In any case, there was an actuary in a twitter thread I have now lost the addy for, who pointed out that actuaries make decisions about this 'distinction' all the time, it is literally their job. And the reality is that even for very old Covid-19 sufferers who die, they are still losing a non-trivial number of years in terms of their lifespan, maybe up to 8 or 9 years.

hix 05.06.20 at 5:20 pm ( 10 )
Just look at excess death rates – they are at least as bad as the covid numbers, there is no overcounting whatsoever going on in the UK. What is going on is very slow reporting of non hospital covid death.
Anarcissie 05.06.20 at 5:37 pm ( 11 )
@4 -- or more directly,
Jim Harrison 05.06.20 at 5:51 pm ( 12 )
Just for the record, has the Department of Public Health ever taken the lead or even participated significantly in the establishment of a despotic regime? First they told us to eat more broccoli; and next thing you know, they're telling us we're going to be deloused.
Alex 05.06.20 at 11:17 pm ( 13 )
@Quentin The "dying with, not of" is pretty much moot given that all-cause mortality in England and Wales is twice normal. The Financial Times has a write up, but there's no way to explain that away as mislabeling existing deaths. There's a lot of people who live 50 years or more with high blood pressure or diabetes. They didn't just all die this month for no reason.
Moz in Oz 05.07.20 at 12:04 am ( 14 )

The UK is generous with its death figures

But it does not test all deaths and only counts those who had a positive test result. I've seen more complaints about likely undercounting than overcounting.

Vahid Friedrich 05.07.20 at 12:41 am ( 15 )
Here is a great example of the freedom to work.
Collin Street 05.07.20 at 2:13 am ( 16 )
The UK is generous with its death figures: it counts those who die with Coronavirus, not those who die of it. That's a nice but important distinction.

Not many car accidents in the respiratory ER, I thought.

The distinction between "with" and "of" matters very much for chronic conditions. A lot of cancers are extremely slow-growing, for example; a 90-yo with early stage prostate cancer is statistically likely to die of something fast-acting -- a car accident, a lung infection -- years before the prostate cancer becomes a problem. The thing-that-kills-you has to be faster-acting than the thing-that-will-kill-you-if-you-live-long-enough. But COVID-19 is an acute condition, actually pretty fast-acting: there's not a huge lot that kills you faster than a lung infection. Major trauma? Septicemia, dehydration? If you're working at a meatworks and you have COVID-19 and you get decapitated, that's "with not of", but that looks to me like we're talking about tiny numbers, and you've just claimed that that's an important distinction.

I don't think that that distinction is important. It's potentially non-zero, a source of error that might potentially be significant but on the face of it that potential is so small as to be ludicrous rather than important. You think otherwise, strongly enough to bother to write a comment: please, explain to me what lead you to think that. Show me I'm wrong.

hix 05.07.20 at 9:18 am ( 17 )
Regarding over/undercounting in general. There are just no standardiced rules for counting. Every nation, sometimes every region does it´s own thing, with a wild mix of aspects that under and overcount, or just delay reporting of some death. Overall overcounting (compared to excess death rates, there is no objective rule whom to count anyway) seems to be very rare, maybe Belgium?
Here is a nice graphic tool with weekly excess mortality data, they sure look particular ugly in the UK:
bianca steele 05.07.20 at 1:36 pm ( 18 )
If the infection rate in big cities and institutions is as high as some studies have suggested (1/3 by some reports), counting "deaths by Covid-19" as "presumed deaths" + "positive tests at death" will obviously be inaccurate. There are other reasons to count asymptomatic infections.

If people like the form of argument "basically P, but it's more complicated than that, for reason A, and B, and I think that's enough reasons, may as well just assert that P," I guess I'm not going to stop them. Maybe they're right and I'm wrong. It's not like anyone's willing to pay me to do it my way.

Collin Street 05.07.20 at 2:40 pm ( 19 )
If the infection rate in big cities and institutions is as high as some studies have suggested (1/3 by some reports), counting "deaths by Covid-19" as "presumed deaths" + "positive tests at death" will obviously be inaccurate

I am forced to admit that I was approaching this problem with the perspective of the situation we have in australia, where the disease is still very rare.

[which is to say much of what I said and implied is wrong, for which I apologise.]

[May 14, 2020] The virus may mostly kill older people - but it's because of the co-morbidities which almost *half* of US adults suffer from it his most age groups

May 14, 2020 |

Richard Steven Hack , May 13 2020 9:14 utc | 216

Here's Who's Dying From Covid-19 in the United States
Data and new research reveal all age groups are at risk, from children to middle age and beyond
"We estimated that 45.4% of U.S. adults are at increased risk for complications from coronavirus disease because of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, respiratory disease, hypertension, or cancer," according to a new analysis from the CDC. Those at elevated risk include 19.8% of people age 18 to 29 and 80.7% for people over age 80.

As I've pointed out before, the virus may mostly kill older people - but it's because of the co-morbidities which almost *half* of US adults suffer from. More than 25 million Americans have asthma. This is 7.7 percent of adults and 8.4 percent of children. Currently, there are about 6.2 million children under the age of 18 with asthma. Granted, most of them probably never will get this virus - but those who do...

Separately, a new study of children with Covid-19 admitted to pediatric intensive care units in the United States and Canada concludes that while the overall severity of symptoms in the children was "far less than that documented in adults Covid-19 can result in a significant disease burden in children." According to the research, published in JAMA Pediatrics, 40 of the 48 children, ranging in age from four to 16, had underlying medical conditions. Two of them died, and three remain on ventilators. /BLOCKQUOTE> Assuming the three on ventilators die, that's five out of 48 - ten percent.

So much for the "we can let the old people die" meme. No one wants to claim a willingness to let kids die to re-open the economy.

[May 13, 2020] 92% Of Cook County COVID-19 Victims Had Pre-Existing Condition

Notable quotes:
"... The medical examiner's database showed COVID-19 as the primary cause of death for 2,303 people. Of those, 2,112 were shown to have at least one underlying condition as a secondary cause of death. Those conditions, also known as comorbidities, included hypertension, diabetes, obesity and heart disease. There were no secondary causes reported for 191 deaths. ..."
"... For months, Illinois residents have lived in fear, a fear that has been exacerbated by a lack of transparency and open reporting from the state. ..."
May 13, 2020 |

Authored by Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner via,

A Wirepoints analysis of COVID-19 deaths from the Cook County Medical Examiner's office reveals that 92 percent of victims from the virus had pre-existing medical conditions.

The medical examiner's database showed COVID-19 as the primary cause of death for 2,303 people. Of those, 2,112 were shown to have at least one underlying condition as a secondary cause of death. Those conditions, also known as comorbidities, included hypertension, diabetes, obesity and heart disease. There were no secondary causes reported for 191 deaths.

... ... ...

Hypertension affected 1,070 victims, or more than 46 percent of all deaths. Diabetes impacted 973 victims, or 42 percent of the total. Pulmonary disease was part of 397 deaths, or 17 percent. And 215 of those deaths, about 9 percent, were accompanied by obesity or morbid obesity.

Yet others had conditions including cancer and cardiovascular and kidney diseases. The numbers above add up to more than 100 percent because many victims had more than one pre-existing condition.

,,, ,,, ,,,

What’s stark about the Cook comorbidity data is just how few young adults die from COVID-19 in the absence of some pre-existing condition. Just 3 of the 15 deaths in the 20-29 age bracket had no comorbidities. Same goes for the 30-39 and 40-49 age brackets, where just 26 of the 132 deaths were accompanied with no underlying causes.

Even more, almost 50 percent of all Illinois deaths have been tied to long-term care facilities, the subject of an upcoming Wirepoints piece. That means nearly 1,600 deaths occurred outside the general public.

For months, Illinois residents have lived in fear, a fear that has been exacerbated by a lack of transparency and open reporting from the state.

[Apr 30, 2020] Tricky issues with mortality

Apr 30, 2020 |

Hmpf , Apr 30 2020 16:40 utc | 162

@ vk | Apr 30 2020 16:22 utc | 160

So, if a HIV patient suffers from and dies of a bacterial pneumonia (pneumococcus and others) because his immune system is down due his HIV infection, then he's said to have died of HIV. Correct?

If another HIV patient acquires Covid-19 and suffers from a virological pneumonia and subsequently succumbs to it, then he has died of Covid-19? Did I get that right?

How about a Covid-19 positive person getting killed in a fatal car accident? Covid-19 then? What about cancer patients in their terminal phase, which in most cases ends by some fatal organ failure?

Why don't you stop making sh*t up just so it fits your narrative?

[Apr 30, 2020] Dirty political games around coronavirus mortality

Apr 30, 2020 |

Allen , Apr 29 2020 16:41 utc | 1

Let's take a quick look at how CNN (Cuomo New Network) propaganda works. For but one example:

Here we get the apocalyptic, fear headline:

Deaths spiked as Covid-19 spread in March and April, new analysis finds

And then the story- on the side of your screen you will see a short interview with the ever-reliable and now regularly featured "expert" Dr. Gupta to lend even more credibility to this new "report."

And what does the report actually say? The essence of the report is found in the following comment by Dan Weinberger, the lead epidemiologist(?), (or does he just study infectious disease?) in the report:

"Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the team found about 15,000 excess deaths from March 1 to April 4. During the same time, states reported 8,000 deaths from Covid-19. "That is close to double," Dan Weinberger, who studies the epidemiology of infectious diseases at Yale, told CNN.

The team could not show whether the increased deaths were due to coronavirus, Weinberger said. But there are strong indications that they were. For instance, the team also looked at data on doctor visits.

"What we see is that in many states, you see an increase in influenza-like illnesses, and then a week or two later, you see an increase in deaths due to pneumonia and influenza," Weinberger said. "It provides some confirmation that what we are seeing is related to coronavirus."

The first thing that stands out is that while the headline is worded so as to suggest (yet elusively) a spike in deaths to Covid (meant to increase hysteria in the viewers- and improve ratings) the report clearly states- "that it could not show whether the increased deaths were due to coronavirus." Based on anecdotal evidence though, the report's author itself then goes on to assert that as they have seen more "influenza like" illnesses that these "must be" Covid cases- and why is that? Let's also keep in mind in the vast majority of these cases no testing is being done to confirm or deny Covid.

Oddly deaths attributed to influenza (even as the CDC warned us in December we were in for a bad flu season) have completely stalled and deaths from pneumonia have dropped off significantly as well. Makes one wonder how all the flu and pneumonia deaths are being categorized.

But the deceptions get even worse – as you can see there is an embedded link to the study itself- and when you click that link you will be directed here:

The first item of note is who these authors get their funding from. As you can see the authors are awash in money from medical organizations that have deep ties to pharmaceutical companies. They are paid to do such studies.

Let's also keep in mind that this is a pre-print study that is not peer-reviewed yet CNN (and WaPo) featured it and represented this as if the study was factual and beyond reproach.


(Dan Weinberger) DMW acknowledges support from grants R01AI123208 and R01AI137093 from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases/National Institutes of Health. VEP acknowledges support from grants R01AI112970 and R01AI137093 from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases/National Institutes of Health. NGR acknowledges support from grant R35GM119582 from the National Institute of General Medical Sciences/National Institutes of Health and 1U01IP001122 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). TC acknowledges support from R01AI146555 from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases/National Institutes of Health. LS acknowledges support from the Carlsberg Foundation grant # CF20-0046. FWC acknowledges support from NICHD grant 1DP2HD091799-01.

But it gets worse as stated in the next paragraph which precedes the study we can see the lead author of the study has direct conflicts of interest here through his connections to pharmaceutical companies that stand to profit handsomely from the entirety of the Covid business model:


DMW has received consulting fees from Pfizer, Merck, GSK, and Affinivax for topics unrelated to this manuscript and is Principal Investigator on a research grant from Pfizer on an unrelated topic. VEP has received reimbursement from Merck and Pfizer for travel expenses to Scientific Input Engagements unrelated to the topic of this manuscript.

An intrepid reporter certainly should ask each of the authors to disclose their stock holdings and also examine the financial contributions received by The Yale School of Public Health where these authors work.

So we are to trust a pre-print, non peer reviewed study by authors who have direct ties to the very companies that will profit from this? CNN believes we should- so are we to believe CNN?

[Apr 29, 2020] It is possible to conclude that there is evidence of excess mortality in Portugal between March 1 and April 22, 2020 during the COVID-19 lockdown even using the usual baselines (mean, median).

Apr 29, 2020 |

Vasco da Gama , Apr 29 2020 20:26 utc | 40

Just sharing a study made on Excess Mortality Estimation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Preliminary Data from Portugal , it's conclusion:
It is possible to conclude that there is evidence of excess mortality in Portugal between March 1 and April 22, 2020 during the COVID-19 lockdown even using the usual baselines (mean, median).

By adopting baselines more consistent with the lockdown, the excess mortality becomes more evident, with estimated 2400 to 4000 potential excess deaths during this period.

The observed excess of mortality is associated with older age groups (over age 65). The reduction of more than 191,000 daily hospital ED visits occurred between March 1 - April 22 may potentially be associated with 1291 or more deaths .

Overall, these results point towards an excess mortality that is associated with and that is 3 to 5-fold higher than the official COVID-19 mortality.

(my emphasis, Acta Médica Portuguesa, direct pdf link )

It is interesting that the study chose to compare all-cause mortality but also against a different period of the year in an attempt to reflect the reduced movement under the lockdown more akin to the holiday period. The resulting increased excess-mortality give way for the authors hypothesis that this is explained by the reduction in visits to hospital.

I will comment though that the authors' estimating method could never be made official for the purposes that those are used, and their assessment of "3 to 5-fold higher than the official COVID-19 mortality" is being on the side of the sensationalistic if they are suggesting that we could replace one with the other. Despite this it is a welcome study.

[Apr 29, 2020] Now compare that to the worldwide death toll from coronavirus: 220,000. Let me say that again. Western aggressive wars to coronavirus: 5,000,000 : 220,000."

Apr 29, 2020 |

Blue Dotterel , Apr 29 2020 18:02 utc | 14

Maybe some Craig Murray will provide a little perspective on COVid 19 and the ongoing genocide taking place in the ME

"For the purposes of argument, I am going to put an extremely conservative figure of 5 million on the number of people who died as a result of Western military intervention, direct or proxy, in the Middle East.

Now compare that to the worldwide death toll from coronavirus: 220,000. Let me say that again.
Western aggressive wars to coronavirus: 5,000,000 : 220,000."

[Apr 23, 2020] Changes in United States Data following the new CDC guidelines on "Case" and "Death" definition

Apr 23, 2020 |

Following new CDC guidelines : " As of April 14, 2020, CDC case counts and death counts include both confirmed and probable cases and deaths . This change was made to reflect an interim COVID-19 position statement issued by the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists on April 5, 2020. The position statement included a case definition and made COVID-19 a nationally notifiable disease.

A confirmed case or death is defined by meeting confirmatory laboratory evidence for COVID-19. A probable case or death is defined by i) meeting clinical criteria AND epidemiologic evidence with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID-19; or ii) meeting presumptive laboratory evidence AND either clinical criteria OR epidemiologic evidence; or iii) meeting vital records criteria with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID19" [ source ]

[Apr 23, 2020] Almost 50% of CoVid deaths in Europe are as a result of the practice in richer Euro countries of confining the elderly to nursing homes

Apr 23, 2020 |

LOL , Apr 23 2020 15:40 utc | 4

Almost 50% of CoVid deaths in Europe are as a result of the practice in richer Euro countries of confining the elderly to nursing homes

Half of Europe's COVID-19 deaths are from nursing homes


Branko Milanovic
Why is nobody discussing truly staggering differences in death rates between Eastern and Western Europe? In the @FT graphs none of Eastern European countries is even included. The gap is just striking. (Worldometer, 22 April)

[Apr 21, 2020] What will this do to the COVID death count? What will this also do to the excess mortality rate as people are fearful of getting immediate treatment for very serious life or death conditions?

Apr 21, 2020 |

Allen , Apr 20 2020 2:42 utc | 176

Now over the last two weeks, the city's fire officials said more than 2,192 New York City residents died in their homes, compared to 453 during the same time period last year.

On average there are 25 deaths in home per week in NYC- Tuesday, April 7th for example, there was 256. The reason? People are afraid to go to the hospitals, cardiologists are confirming this, lest they get infected with the "killer virus." This means when they are in the early stages of cardiac arrest, for example, they stay at home and some don't make it.

NYC officials stated that they WILL NOT be conducting tests on these at home deaths nor will they be doing any diagnostics on the cadavers.

NYC officials also confirmed that they will begin to count suspected COVID-19 deaths in addition to cases confirmed by a laboratory.

Stephanie Buhle, a spokeswoman for the New York City's Health Department, confirmed the change in protocol.

"The Office of the Chief Medical Examiner (OCME) and the NYC Health Department are working together to include into their reports deaths that may be linked to COVID but not lab confirmed that occur at home."

NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio in his infinite wisdom acknowledged that the vast majority of deaths taking place at home were likely also due to COVID-19. No tests, no diagnosis but the mayor with his crystal ball stated:

"We do want to know the truth about every death at home, but it's safe to assume that the vast majority are coronavirus related."

That's his exact quote.

What will this do to the COVID death count? What will this also do to the excess mortality rate as people are fearful of getting immediate treatment for very serious life or death conditions?

[Apr 19, 2020] Changes in all-cause mortality will be the ONLY reliable way to judge the death toll.

Apr 19, 2020 |

Alex Berenson ‏ 6:16 AM - 17 Apr 2020

Reminder: because of the aggressive way in which we code # COVID deaths - and because the virus mostly kills elderly people with pre-existing conditions (who may be dying WITH and not OF it), changes in all-cause mortality will be the ONLY reliable way to judge the death toll.

Gene Epstein ‏ 8:47 AM - 17 Apr 2020

I suggest we look at all-cause mortality EXCLUDING: --all transport-related deaths (which should be way down), ---suicides & deaths from drug overdose (should be up) --all crime-related deaths (should be down).

[Apr 12, 2020] When total morbidity statistics are sorted out we qill find that there is no excess morbidity, no pandemic, just reclassification of causes of death

Apr 12, 2020 |

skeptic23 , Apr 11 2020 17:25 utc | 191

will see about this "pandemic" when total morbidity statistics are sorted excess morbidity, no pandemic, just reclassification of causes of death, viz. There is no reliable data on Covid19, but everybody "knows" what is going on

[Apr 08, 2020] Mortality in UK does not support the hypothesis about pandemic

Apr 08, 2020 |

In strict meaning the pandemic is when the the particular infection increases mortality in all affected countries... It did not happened.

Doctortrinate ,

Latest figures Gov uk. Deaths registered in the year-to-date, Week 1 to 13. Looking at the year-to-date (using refreshed data to get the most accurate estimates), the number of deaths is currently lower than the five-year average. The current number of deaths is 150,047, which is 3,350 fewer than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 27 March 2020, 647 mentioned the coronavirus (COVID-19) on the death certificate; this is 0.4% of all deaths.

U.K Lockdown – evening of the 23'rd March – Deaths, of 'or' with Covid ? Tests, false positive / incorrect diagnosis = ? ? %

[Apr 08, 2020] In March, US Deaths From COVID-19 Totaled Less Than 2% Of All Deaths

Apr 08, 2020 |

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

About 2.9 million people die in the United States each year from all causes. Monthly this total ranges from around 220,000 in the summertime to more than 280,000 in winter .

In recent decades, flu season has often peaked sometime from January to March, and this is a major driver in total deaths. The average daily number of deaths from December through March is over eight thousand .

So far, total death data is too preliminary to know if there has been any significant increase in total deaths as a result of COVID-19, and this is an important metric, because it gives us some insight into whether or not COVID-19 is driving total death numbers well above what would otherwise be expected.

Indeed, according to some sources, it is not clear that total deaths have increased significantly as a result of COVID-19. In a March 30 article for The Spectator , former UK National Health Service pathologist John Lee noted that the current number of deaths from COVID-19 does not indicate that the UK is experiencing " excess deaths ." Lee writes :

The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month? Statistically, we would expect about 51,000 to die in Britain this month. At the time of writing, 422 deaths are linked to Covid-19 -- so 0.8 per cent of that expected total. On a global basis, we'd expect 14 million to die over the first three months of the year. The world's 18,944 coronavirus deaths represent 0.14 per cent of that total. These figures might shoot up but they are, right now, lower than other infectious diseases that we live with (such as flu). Not figures that would, in and of themselves, cause drastic global reactions.

How do these numbers look in the United States? During March of 2020, there were 4,053 COVID-19 deaths according to Worldometer. That is 1.6 percent of total deaths in March 2019 (total data on March 2020 deaths is still too preliminary to offer a comparison). For context, we could note that total deaths increased by about four thousand from March 2018 to March 2019. So for March, the increase in total deaths is about equal to what we already saw as a pre-COVID increase from March 2018 to March 2019.

As Lee notes, total COVID-19 deaths could still increase significantly this season, but even then we must ask what percentage of total deaths warrants an international panic. Is it 5 percent? Ten percent? The question has never been addressed, and so far, a figure of 1 percent of total deaths in some places is being treated as a reason to forcibly shut down the global economy.

Yet, as a CDC report recently noted , pneumonia deaths have often been far more common than COVID-19 deaths are right now: "Based on National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance data available on March 26, 2020, 8.2 percent of the deaths occurring during the week ending on March 21, 2020 (week 12), were due to [pneumonia and influenza]."

Meanwhile there is a trend toward to attributing more of those pneumonia deaths to COVID-19 rather than influenza, although this doesn't actually mean the total mortality rate has increased. The CDC report continues: "the percent of all deaths with Influenza listed as a cause have decreased (from 1.0% to 0.8%) over this same time period. The increase in pneumonia deaths during this time period are likely associated with COVID-19 rather than influenza." This doesn't represent a total increase in pneumonia deaths, just a change in how they are recorded.

This reflects an increased focus on attributing deaths to COVID-19, as noted by Lee:

In the current climate, anyone with a positive test for Covid-19 will certainly be known to clinical staff looking after them: if any of these patients dies, staff will have to record the Covid-19 designation on the death certificate -- contrary to usual practice for most infections of this kind. There is a big difference between Covid-19 causing death, and Covid-19 being found in someone who died of other causes. Making Covid-19 notifiable might give the appearance of it causing increasing numbers of deaths, whether this is true or not. It might appear far more of a killer than flu, simply because of the way deaths are recorded.

Given this rush to maximize the number of deaths attributable to COVID-19, what will April's data look like? It may be that COVID-19 deaths could then indeed number 10 or 20 percent of all deaths.

But the question remains: will total deaths increase substantially compared to April 2019 or April 2018? If they don't, this will call into question whether or not COVID-19 is the engine of mortality that many government bureaucrats insist it is. After all, if April's mortality remains "about the same" as the usual total and comes in around 230,000–235,000, then obsessive concern over COVID-19 would be justified only if it can be proven April 2020 deaths would have plummeted year-over-year had it not been for COVID-19.


Meanwhile the CDC is instructing medical staff to report deaths as COVID-19 deaths even when no test has confirmed the presence of the disease. In a Q and A on death certificates published by the CDC on March 24, the agency advises:

COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death . Certifiers should include as much detail as possible based on their knowledge of the case, medical records, laboratory testing, etc. If the decedent had other chronic conditions such as COPD or asthma that may have also contributed, these conditions can be reported in Part II. [emphasis in original.]

This is extremely likely to inflate the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 while pulling down deaths attributed to other influenza-like illnesses and to deaths caused by pneumonia with unspecified origins. This is especially problematic since we know the overwhelming majority of COVID-19 deaths occur in patients that are already suffering from a number of other conditions. In Italy, for example, data shows 99 percent of COVID-19 deaths occurred in patients who had at least one other condition. More than 48 percent had three other conditions. Similar cases in the US are now likely to be routinely reported simply as COVID-19 cases.

Source: Total death and flu/pneumonia death data via National Center for Health Statistics ( ). COVID-19 totals via Worldometer COVID stats.

Unfortunately, because total death data is not reported immediately, we have yet to see how this plays out.

We do know historically, however, that deaths attributed to flu and pneumonia over the past decade have tended to make up around five to ten percent of all deaths, depending on the severity of the "season." Last week (week 14, the week ending April 4) was the first week during which COVID-19 deaths exceeded flu and pneumonia deaths, coming in at 11 percent of all death for that week. The prior week, (week 13, the week ending Mar 28) COVID-19 deaths made up 3.3 percent of all deaths.

Until we have reliable numbers on all deaths in coming weeks, it will be impossible to know the extent to which COVID-19 are "cannibalizing" flu and pneumonia deaths overall. That is, if the COVID-19 totals skyrocket, but total deaths remain relatively stable, than we might guess that many deaths formerly attributed simply to pneumonia, or to flu, are now being labeled as COVID-19 deaths. Potentially, this could also be the case for other patients, such as those with advanced cases of diabetes.

[Apr 08, 2020] The books are being cooked, not only in this way, but also by "lying with statistics" through not having a reliable means of understanding the overall infection rate, nor the mechanisms of infection

Apr 08, 2020 |

JerseyJeffersonian , 06 April 2020 at 12:03 PM

To add to the discussion of how the CDC's rules on assigning primary causation to coronavirus for deaths (and analogously, how other nations medical Grey Eminences also handle this issue), regardless of the presence of underlying co-morbidities, I drop this link here. It is a quite well written comment from the poster, The Right Doctor, an older, senior physician who explains the "cause of death" assignment process, and discusses past practices, and what has changed in this with the advent of CoVID-19. Very illuminating.

The books are being cooked, not only in this way, but also by "lying with statistics" through not having a reliable means of understanding the overall infection rate, nor the mechanisms of infection. W

Without a handle on the overall infection rate in the population, it is child's play to exaggerate the lethality by focusing solely on the death rate among those groups with co-morbidities, the significance of which is itself a moving, anecdotal target absent focused study.

Here is a report of a study to address those issues being implemented in Germany. Sorry, the link is from The Guardian (I brandish a crucifix in one hand, and fondle my necklace of heads of garlic with the other...), but it is still valuable in increasing understanding of what we don't know, but should in order to make optimal policy choices.

[Apr 08, 2020] Something did not compute: Mortality in the USA from Influenza and Pneumonia was much higher two years ago.

Apr 08, 2020 |

Alfred (Cairns) , Apr 6 2020 19:07 utc | 17

Here is the latest chart from the CDC. As can be seen mortality in the USA from Influenza and Pneumonia was much higher two years ago.

The original report is here:

It is panic for fake reasons.

[Apr 06, 2020] Difficulties of computing real COVID-19 mortality

Apr 06, 2020 |

Leser , Apr 6 2020 8:07 utc | 158

C1ue @91: why the exponential growth observed now if the virus has been around for months? The numbers you see reported is cased discovered by testing. Testing is what ramps up exponentially now. The % of tested people showing the virus is only very mildly growing. In other words, the underlying base of infected is large and relatively stable as part of the total population. The more you test, the more you find.

Tom @151: "covid causing nerve damage" . That's conjecture stemming from the fact that all test-positive deceased are declared covid victims, including those without symptoms. Rather than state the correct cause of death for almost all those deaths (old age - average age 81 of corona deaths in Italy, 99% with one or multiple chronic diseases, dehydration of care patients whose staff ran back to their Eastern European homes under the panic of border closures, hospitals overwhelmed like every flu winter and now compounded by panic, doctors stuck at home looking after their children), new unseen ways of covid killing are invented.

[Apr 06, 2020] Statistically COVID-19 is just blip on the screen

Apr 06, 2020 |

frances , Apr 5 2020 17:46 utc | 31

Of 200,000 people die in the US with COVID-19 out of a population of 330 million people that is 0.06% of the population. That is to say a six hundredths of a percent chance of dying from the virus. Destroying the economy and losing our rights for a 0.06% chance of dying is not reasonable.

And worldwide, Covid-19 Worldwide deaths as of April 4th, 64,518 divided by 7,000,000,000 world population. = 9.21 millionths of one percent. Corona virus, Covid-19, is IMO an orchestrated hysteria.

World Health Organization: Yearly Death Rate Comparisons
• Influenza (Various): 290 000 to 650 000 respiratory deaths
• Cholera: 21 000 to 143 000 deaths
• Malaria: 405 000 deaths (2018)
• Typhoid: 128 000 and 161 000 deaths.
• HIV-related causes: 770 000 deaths (2018)
• Measles: 140 000 people died (2018) – mostly children under the age of 5
• Pneumonia: 808 694 children deaths under 5 years in 2017.
• Drowning: 320 000 deaths
• Road Traffic Crashes: 1.35 million deaths

This is EVERY year.

[Apr 06, 2020] Covid19 Death Figures "A Substantial Over-Estimate" by Kit Knightly

Notable quotes:
"... What has happened to the British working class ethos of never believing the authorities? Where I live they're more likely to grass you up than question anything. ..."
"... Also if someone has to go to emergency for other reasons: heart attack, stroke, even a broken leg, if the conditions there are worsened by excess patients who should not be there, they too being weak, may catch some infection, which could in their case due to the secondary issues make them worse, and give them severe breathing issues and so on, which in a normal year they would avoid, because excess contagious patients are not crowded in hospitals when they dont need to be in hospital. ..."
Apr 05, 2020 |

Covid19 Death Figures "A Substantial Over-Estimate" Bizarre guidelines from health authorities around the world are potentially including thousands of deceased patients who were never even tested Kit Knightly

A few weeks ago we reported that, according to the Italian Institute of Health (ISS), only 12% of Italy's reported Covid19 deaths actually listed Covid19 as the cause of death .

Given that 99% of them had at least one serious co-morbidity (and that 80% of them had two such diseases) this raised serious questions as to the reliability of Italy's reported statistics.

Prof Walter Ricciardi, advisor to Italy's health minister, explained this was caused by the "generous" way the Italian government handles death certificates:

The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.

Essentially, Italy's death registration process does not differentiate between those who simply have the virus in their body , and those who are actually killed by it .

Given the amount of fear and panic Italy's comparatively alarming numbers caused around the world, you would think other nations would be eager to avoid these same mistakes.

Surely all the other countries of the world are employing rigorous standards for delineating who has, and has not, fallen victim to the pandemic, right?


In fact, rather than learning from Italy's example, other countries are not only repeating these mistakes but going even further.

In Germany, for example, though overall deaths and case-fatality ratio are far lower than Italy's, their public health agency is still engaging in similar practice.

On March 20th the President of Germany's Robert Koch Institute confirmed that Germany counts any deceased person who was infected with coronavirus as a Covid19 death, whether or not it actually caused death.

This totally ignores what Dr Sucharit Bhakdi calls the vital distinction between "infection" and "disease", leading to stories such as this, shared by Dr Hendrik Streeck :

In Heinsberg, for example, a 78-year-old man with previous illnesses died of heart failure, and that was without Sars-2 lung involvement. Since he was infected, he naturally appears in the Covid 19 statistics.

How many "Covid19 deaths" in Germany, fall into this bracket? We don't know, and will likely never know.

But at least Germany is actually limiting itself to test positive cases.

In the United States, a briefing note from the CDC's National Vital Statistics Service read as follows [our emphasis]:

It is important to emphasise that Coronavirus Disease 19, or Covid-19, should be reported for all decedents where the disease caused or is presumed to have caused or contributed to death.

"Presumed to have caused"? "Contributed"? That's incredibly soft language, which could easily lead to over-reporting.

The referenced detailed "guidance" was released April 3rd , and is no better [again, our emphasis]:

In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as "probable" or "presumed." In these instances, certifiers should use their best clinical judgement in determining if a COVID–19 infection was likely.

Are careful records being kept to separate "Covid-19" from "presumed Covid-19"? Are the media making sure they respect the distinction in their reporting?

Absolutely not.

Whenever the alleged casualties are referenced we are fed one large all-inclusive number, without context or explanation, which – thanks to lax reporting guidelines – could be entirely false.

Government agencies all across the UK are doing the same thing.

Northern Ireland's HSC Public Health Agency is releasing weekly surveillance bulletins on the pandemic, in those reports they define a "Covid19 death" as :

individuals who have died within 28 days of first positive result, whether or not COVID-19 was the cause of death

NHS England's Office of National Statistics releases weekly reports on nation-wide mortality. Its latest report (Week 12 – March 14th-20th) was released on March 31st and made special mention of Covid19, explaining they were going to c hange the way they report the numbers in future .

The ONS system is predicated on the registration of deaths. Meaning they count, not the number of people who die every week, but the number of deaths registered per week. This, naturally, leads to slight delays in the recording of numbers as the registration process can take a few days.

However, with coronavirus deaths, since its a "national emergency", they are now including "provisional figures" which will be "included in the dataset in subsequent weeks". This leaves them wide open to – either accidentally or deliberately – reporting the same deaths twice . Once "provisionally", and then once "officially" a week later.

That's just one peculiar policy decision. There are many others.

Up until now, the ONS reported those Covid19 numbers collated by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC). The DHSC records only those who died in hospital and have tested positive for the coronavirus as Covid19 deaths.

BUT, from now on, the ONS will also include Covid19 deaths "in the community" in their statistics. That "includes those not tested for Covid19" and where " suspected Covid19″ [our emphasis] is presumed to be a "contributory factor".

Here are some screencaps of the relevant sections :

The official NHS guidance for doctors filling out death certificates is just as vague [our emphasis]:

if before death the patient had symptoms typical of COVID19 infection, but the test result has not been received, it would be satisfactory to give 'COVID-19' as the cause of death, and then share the test result when it becomes available. In the circumstances of there being no swab, it is satisfactory to apply clinical judgement .

The government is telling doctors it is OK to list "Covid-19" as a cause of death when there is literally no evidence the deceased was infected . That means there are potentially huge numbers of "Covid19 deaths" that were never even tested for the disease.

Further, any possible mistakes will never be noticed or rectified, thanks to recent changes to the law.

Usually, any death attributed to a "notifiable disease" had to be referred to a coroner for a jury hearing.

Under UK law Covid19 is a "notifiable disease", but the new Coronavirus Bill alters the Coroners and Justice Act 2009 , to specifically exempt alleged Covid19 deaths from jury inquests .

Further, according to the office of the Chief Coroner , the Coronavirus Bill means that these deaths don't have to be referred to a coroner at all , and that medical practitioners can sign off a cause of death for a body they have never even seen :

Any registered medical practitioner can sign an MCCD [Medical Certificate for Cause of Death], even if the deceased was not attended during their last illness and not seen after death, provided that they are able to state the cause of death to the best of their knowledge and belief.

Deaths "in the community" can be listed as Covid19 deaths without being tested for the disease, or even seen by a doctor at all . These deaths will not necessarily be referred to a coroner, and certainly not heard by a jury.

By enacting this legislation the UK government has not only made false reporting of Covid19 deaths more likely , they actively removed the safeguards designed to correct it. Recording accurate fatality numbers in this situation is borderline impossible.

This is, at best, totally irresponsible and at worst incredibly sinister.

Now, before you roll your eyes at the whacky alternate media and their crazy paranoia, the idea deaths are being over-estimated is not a fringe concept or a "conspiracy theory". It is actually addressed in the mainstream frequently, people just seem to not hear it, drowned out as it is by the fear-inducing headlines.

Dr John Lee, a professor of pathology and retired consulting pathologist with the NHS, wrote in a column for the Spectator :

Why Covid-19 deaths are a substantial over-estimate

Many UK health spokespersons have been careful to repeatedly say that the numbers quoted in the UK indicate death with the virus, not death due to the virus – this matters.
[ ]
This nuance is crucial ­– not just in understanding the disease, but for understanding the burden it might place on the health service in coming days. Unfortunately, nuance tends to be lost in the numbers quoted from the database being used to track Covid-19
[ ]
This data is not standardised and so probably not comparable, yet this important caveat is seldom expressed by the (many) graphs we see. It risks exaggerating the quality of data that we have.

In fact, Dr Lee goes out of his way to emphasise:

The distinction between dying 'with' Covid-19 and dying 'due to' Covid-19 is not just splitting hairs.

The BBC dealt with the same issue in an article on April 1st [again, emphasis ours]:

The death figures being reported daily are hospital cases where a person dies with the coronavirus infection in their body – because it is a notifiable disease cases have to be reported.

But what the figures do not tell us is to what extent the virus is causing the death.

It could be the major cause, a contributory factor or simply present when they are dying of something else.

These absurd rules contributed to this recent example, referenced in the BBC article, but not widely reported at the time:

An 18-year-old in Coventry tested positive for coronavirus the day before he died and was reported as its youngest victim at the time. But the hospital subsequently released a statement saying his death had been due to a separate "significant" health condition and not connected to the virus.

This story is completely true. The boy was widely reported as the UK's "youngest coronavirus victim" on March 24th , before the hospital issued a statement saying:

[The hospital] had tested for COVID-19 on the day before he died, but this was not linked to his reason for dying.

Despite the hospital correcting the press, the case was still being reported in the tabloids a week later on March 31st .

However, the important detail here is being lost: Going by the current NHS rules, despite the hospital officially saying it was not his cause of death, this boy is still part of the official coronavirus fatality statistics.

How many more people fit that profile? We will never know.


Italy, Germany, the United States, Northern Ireland and England.

That's five different governments, across four countries, all essentially saying it's OK to just assume a patient died of Covid19, and then add that to the official statistics.

Is that really responsible practice during a potential pandemic?

Are any other countries doing the same?

To what extent can we trust any official death statistics at all, at this point?

As Dr Lee points out, Covid19 is not a disease that presents with a unique – or even rare – collection of symptoms. The range of severity and type of presentation is in line with literally dozens of extremely common respiratory infections.

You cannot see "fever" and "cough" and then diagnose "probable covid19" with even the slightest chance of accuracy.

This has become one of those nuggets of information we all know by heart, but between 290000 and 650000 people die of flu, or "flu like illness", every year. If just 10% of those cases are incorrectly assumed to be "probable" coronavirus infections, then the fatality numbers are totally useless.

At a time when good, reliable information is key to saving lives and preventing mass-panic, global governments are pursuing policies which make it near-impossible to collect that data, whilst stoking public fear.

Due to these policies, the simple fact is we have no reliable way of knowing how many people have died from this coronavirus . We have no hard data at all. And governments and international organisations are going out of their way to keep it that way.

It's time we started asking why.

Grafter ,

A must see on what is about to happen.

lundiel ,

What has happened to the British working class ethos of never believing the authorities? Where I live they're more likely to grass you up than question anything.

Seamus Padraig ,

You know what I think? You know how economist John Williams has that website , where he shows you what the real unemployment and inflation figures would be if the government and the media didn't lie? Well, I think there should a shadowstats for Corona virus infection figures, too.

tonyopmoc ,

"It's time we started asking why."

The answer is quite simple. The "Authorities" are doing the exact reverse of what they are claiming to do. I don't necessarily blame them, because they are brainwashed too, as are the vast majority across most of the world.

They are trying to kill most of us off, and I think they are highly likely to succeed.

This used to be a crazy conspiracy theory – which even I didn't take seriously.

The Georgia Guidestones (1980) are hardly Stonehenge "Maintain humanity under 500,000,000 in perpetual balance with nature.", and have always been dismissed on the basis, that the USA contains some very rich and powerful religious nutters, but it seems we completely underestimated how powerful they are. The "elite" Malthusians are almost certainly of British origin.

I never thought they could pull this off on a world wide basis, but they have. They have succeeded in terrorising almost everyone.

It's not COVID – The Coronavirus that will do it, but the panic reaction to it, and the total crashing of the world wide economy. Supply lines are certain to break down, and in fact already have done for the most vulnerable.

Not only do I see little if any resistance to this madness, most people are fully engaged and a part of it.

The only response I have to it, is to become as self sufficient as possible, by digging up my garden to grow food. Most people think I am nuts, and think everything will be back to normal in a few weeks time, but the people in control, would not have crashed the entire world economy in pursuit of their Malthusian Agenda, to give up after a few weeks, when their well designed plans, all based on the most powerful psychological techniques are working so well, just as they envisaged, and game tested starting of course with 9/11 – where most people still believe the official story, which is literally impossible, because it does not conform with the most basic laws of physics and maths.


Willem ,

Here is an idea

1) Test everyone who according to the triage system should be tested on covid19 with PCR

2) distinguish pcr+ vs pcr- negative and follow both groups over time (for example 28 days)

3) then see which group dies more often: the pcr positive group or the positive negative group

4) the relative risk will then show the excess risk of pcr positive Covid 19 vs Covid 19 negative cases

I am surprised that this research has not been done yet. It is plain and simple but apparantly nobody cares about a comparison group. And that is weird, as in normal circumstances you always compare with your competing neighbor, football club, fellow student, etc. But for Covid19 comparisons don't matter. The mortality rate is just high (compared to what?)

Mucho ,

Last night on Steven Nolan, quite early on in the show, a genuine NHS worker called in to relay his experience. He said that where they suspect Covid19 in a patient, sometimes they have to do up to four tests to get back the Covid positive result they are looking for. Utterly insane. They get three negatives on the bounce, but when the fourth one rolls in positive, it's all good and Covid19 is established. (are the tests for Coronavirus Normal or specifically Covid19?) No need to take into account the potential for a false positive, because they already know what the patient has. This is barmy. Gotta start raising the alarm people. This is not a drill. (Well maybe it is, but a drill for something much effing worse so alarm bells still totally necessary).

I am very concerned about the building of these "Nightingale" hospitals. What have they got lined up for us to make sure these places are full of patients on ventilators? Because we have firmly established that this current pandemic is a fake. If it were half as bad as they were predicting, people would be dropping like flies in the UK by now, but we all know that they're not. They have rigged the legal system and all kinds of checks and balances have been nullified to enable them to give the appearance of a pandemic, but what is the endgame here?

"We're not gonna have a war, we're gonna the appearance of a war." From Wag The Dog, Brendon O Connell fave. Best case scenario is that the new hospitals are there for window dressing to give the scam crisis authenticity through the visual action being taken, photo opportunities and emotional manipulation of the public becoming invested when they see "our boys" and the NHS "pulling together" in the crisis and doing everything they can. It psychologically consolidates the slave/master relationship very nicely too. Worst case scenario, genocide incoming. That we can legitimately raise these issues is symptomatic of a very real disease that is controlling our world.

fritzi cohen ,

We need to expose industrial agriculture's possible contribution. Rob Wallace wrote a book about this in 2016. Of course no one paid attention even if they knew about his research.

The American Scholar: How Global Agriculture Grew a

Evolutionary biologist Rob Wallace, of the Institute for Global Studies at the University of Minnesota, has some answers. For the past 25 years, he's been studying the evolution and spread of influenzas and other pathogens.

Hail ,

The latest expert to emerge slamming CoronaPanic is Dr. Knut Wittkowski, who attacks head-on at the very premise, less on the margins over numbers (which is also important work).

Wittkowski says long-term social distancing for the vast majority, low-risk people, does more harm than good, even from a strictly disease-control standpoint (will cause more death, not less) and also repeatedly questions the wild projections. He says the coronavirus small spike in flu is totally unremarkable and behaves like every other observed flu pandemic does, not a second-rate-movie-like World-Shattering Mass Killer.


Alan Tench ,

Just finished listening to the government press conference here in the UK (Lt Gruber hosting it). Two mildly challenging questions, both sidestepped. The final question from The Scotsman newspaper was much more challenging, about the status of the Scottish Chief Medical Officer. This question was completely evaded by Hancock, and he didn't even allow the Deputy Chief Medical Officer to say what she thought, or confirm whether she's visited her second home, if indeed she has one. What a bloody shower they are!

Bettynho Zirigdum ,

Here in Brazil the Minister of Health authorized burials without a death certificate. When the death cause is not known, the death "may" be recorded as a Covid-19 death.

Thom ,

It's only a mistake if you think their main objectives are to tell the public the truth and protect public health. Given that the lockdowns, discouragement of exercise, putting millions out of work and torpedoeing health budgets will kill far more than the virus, then there are plainly other agendas here.

Look at how nervous the politicians get when the public aren't scared 'enough' of the virus. And this evening, in the UK, we even have Queen drafted in to frighten people and stir up panic. How low can they go?

MrChops ,

Forgot to join in with the clap-a-thon for the health workers

Why not join Peekay for some 'Effin n jeffin' for the NWO ..

elsewhere ,

Again good stuff at

(April 5 entry)

A sample: "The medical specialist portal Rxisk points out that various drugs can increase the risk of infection with corona viruses by up to 200% in some cases. It is also known that vaccination against influenza viruses may increase the risk of coronavirus disease."

stonecircle ,

Interesting about the possible increase in susceptibility to severe C-19 due to having the flu jab. Tragically many nurses and doctors are dying from C-19 even though they are comparatively young. Medical staff are put under a lot of pressure to have the flu jab each winter. It would be very interesting to see some hard data investigating this issue.

Anecdotally: I had C-19 in mild form last week – high temperature, headache – but was almost better in two days. I am aged 70 and never have the flu jab as I worry it might weaken my immune system. All my peers have the jab and have had more persistent illnesses this winter than I have.


We have no idea how many health workers are dying of COVID19. All we know is how many of them have it on their death certificate.

Not the same thing. As this article should have made clear to you.

And let's also remember the euromomo statistics show that excess deaths are not happening. The pandemic is a lie created by reclassifying ordinary flu deaths as COVID19

crank ,

Seeing as the daily (total) death rate in the UK averages about 1600 per day, then I would like to think that 'COVID deaths' might top out at that. However, the effects of lockdown will push the death rate up considerably, I would predict, so who knows, maybe Trump is actually right in saying there will be 'lots of death' ? In the statistical mobius strip/ self re-inforcing/ feedback loop so clearly described by Kit, all these deaths could, in the end, be classified as 'COVID deaths'. In theory at least, to take the idea to the extreme, the virus could be completely harmless and no more than a marker – a new means of counting death.
Kafka could not have devised anything so insane.

Steve Hayes ,

"To what extent can we trust any official death statistics at all, at this point?" By focusing on all cause mortality. These are reliable numbers. Presently, they do not show any cause for concern. Yet the government and parliament have seen fit to introduce the Coronavirus Act 2020, which gives the government the power to do anything, forever.

It is of some interest to note that Jeremy Hunt on LBC stated that the government had prepared for a pandemic after an exercise in 2016 (when he was Health Secretary) by drafting legislation to give the government emergency powers: which explains how they were able to produce the three hundred and twenty page Coronavirus Bill so quickly.

Harry Stotle ,

Off-G has opened a really important conduit to talk about the Corona outbreak in term of its wider economic and geopolitical context – this is to be applauded. However I can promise you that in living memory there has never been a higher number of patients suffering with ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome) presenting to hospital services, in such concentrated numbers over a relatively short time interval.

> 95% of those who died in Italy, died of ARDS

Ventilator use in London has risen 12-fold because people can hardly breath (the lungs fill with interstitial fluid impairing normal gaseous exchange) – once the lungs fail other organs follow the same fate downstream: heart, kidneys, liver, etc.

At the moment there is no way to stop COVID-19 related ARDS from developing, while survival rates post-ventilation may be no better than 50/50 for vulnerable groups (older patients with co-morbidities) – the jury is still out on this question.

Getting on for 5,000 deaths have been reported over a period of 4 weeks in the UK – it is likely most are COVID-19 related because they exhibit the typical cluster of finding (bilateral infiltrates on chest x/ray, hyperferritinaemia, lymphocytopaenia, elevated d-dimer, elevated troponin and profound hypoxia on arterial blood gas despite hi-flow oxygen). [citation requested -ed]

From conversations I have been privy to the approach of China has been held up as the key strategy to control the spread (because of the difference in death rates pre and post lockdown).

We will probably get a better idea of how things look once countries that find it difficult to follow the Chinese model (because of things like poverty or over-crowding) experience higher numbers of infections, and thus a growing numbers who develop ARDS – India, Brazil and Palestine come to mind (I know the death toll is low at the moment).

None of this addresses the collateral damage bound to arise from lack of access to medical services (because of the selective focus on COBID-19) or the economic time-bomb that will explode once the size of the debt mushrooms out of control.

I am the first to admit I simply do not have any answers to these questions – I am simply reporting what I have experienced on the shop floor.

anita ,

Usually if you have pneumonia, you stay at home and a doctor prescribes some basic antibiotic as precaution. Even in severe cases among already fragile people, usually you then slowly recover. Today if you have pneumonia, either you will have no doctor you can see in town, or else they will send you to hospital because of the scare created, or else you yourself will go to hospital because of the scare. This is just with pneumonia, there are plenty of other illnesses like a very bad flu and so on that can be as bad.

Hence hospitals will get overloaded with patients which they dont usually get. And I can tell you, having nursed my mother after her stroke, and having had to take her a few times to emergency over a number of years, that emergency was each time overcrowded, and you are left for hours in corridors. So hospitals are getting more people because of above than a normal already overcrowded year.

As for the patients, those that would normally be cured at home, they are in hospital surrounded by a whole lot of other people also with contagious diseases, apart from the nosocomial disease you may anyhow catch in a hospital nowadays, and in conditions which because of above have overwhelmed the hospital staff. So these patients being already weakened get worse, possibly die.

Also if someone has to go to emergency for other reasons: heart attack, stroke, even a broken leg, if the conditions there are worsened by excess patients who should not be there, they too being weak, may catch some infection, which could in their case due to the secondary issues make them worse, and give them severe breathing issues and so on, which in a normal year they would avoid, because excess contagious patients are not crowded in hospitals when they dont need to be in hospital.

On top of this there is a shortage of staff from other years for multiple reasons. I can think of 2 without any effort: In no other year staff with a virus but not ill (first they in that case would not know that had a virus) are not put on quarantine.

Secondly, at least in West Europe, a major proportion of the medical staff at all level is from outside West Europe. Many, when the confinement measures and closures of borders were made, have returned to the home countries, to be with their families, especially those coming from countries that have not taken from such draconian measures.

Hence what you are actually seeing needs to be analysed to be understood. By merely saying what you are seeing without analysing the cause is only likely to give a wrong justification for the measures and increase the panic among people. As a result, the entire
thing is going to go worse.

Harry Stotle ,

We are talking about are two different conditions with different pathologies and different outcomes – ARDS is a hyperinflammatory response, that in the context of COVID-19 is not amenable to antibiotics.

Pneumonia is generally caused by a more localised lung infection although in some cases pneumonia can lead to ARDS as a secondary complication.

In the case of COVID I am unaware of any therapy that presents ARDS ftom developing – ARDS is what kills you.

Croach ,

The icnarc report raises a question.
If we have close to 5000 deaths but few hospitals are breaching ICU capacity (London and the West Midlands, the two biggest disease clusters have reported they're within capacity, nightingale hospital not needed yet etc.) why is icnarc reporting only 346 deaths in ICU/Critical care beds?
Where are all the rest dying?
If there is spare capacity in ICU why weren't they in ICU beds when they died?

Also, do you know why the percentages in table 5 regarding the presence or not of severe comorbidities (yes,no) add up to more than 100% in the covid-19 column and less than 100% in the pneumonia comparison column?

Rhys Jaggar ,

This is precisely why everyone is so cynical. A propaganda narrative was written long ago and the data is crafted around that narrative, rather than a true narraitve emerging from whatever data happens to present itself.

The narrative is that CoVid19 is so dangerous that we will all have to be locked down unless we all have a vaccination, testing and can be digitally tracked.

Now if that were even to be half acceptable, the digital certificates would be owned and issued by the people, not by TNC billionaires. The data generated through tracking and testing would never be owned privately and any public official disclosing such information to corporations would be issued with the metaphorical Black Spot.

What this is all about is billionaires owning everyone lock stock and barrel: their movements, their medical history, their private actions, their travel, their purchases etc etc.

If Bill Gates thinks he can afford to buy all that data he is living in cloud cuckoo land. I would value my lifetime private data at £100,000 minimum, so for 5 billion humans (just for round figures), that might come to £500 trillion.

I think that is about 5,000 times Bill Gates' net worth ..

I have not signed away my private data to anyone, will not do so and consider it illegal for anyone to nick it, pass it on, hand it over, sell it on etc etc etc.

bob ,

If people in the uk don't address the issue of organ donation then the state will claim it owns their bodies – the law changed in April to make it important that people who do not wish to donate their organs they have to opt out – at a time like this when family/friends cannot be with a person dying who knows what's happening – does anybody still trust the british state?? Get it sorted is my advice and don't let the state steel the bodies

Mucho ,

The concept of policy decision being made and then a mad dash to find evidence to support that policy decision was highlighted in this excellent report, which I think every reader here will find interesting.

madness ,

".. provided that they are able to state the cause of death to the best of their knowledge and belief"

Surely, in Australia, many the death of many people will be the result of their sins, especially if the conservatives continue to engineer health policies. This is the best of their belief.

Shaking My Head ,

This circus is maddening. Is anyone else in Canada? There is a complete lack of dissent here. The first Canadian I've seen online with any critical perspective is Rosemary Frei's article here on Off-Guardian. Are there any other Canadians speaking out? It seems like people are openly welcoming more of the police state rather than questioning anything.

AlexCanadianJones ,

Also in Canada. You aren't alone.

We have to keep in mind that everyone is at home isolated, everyone that feels and is thinking the way do, feels they are alone and that other Canadians. The Media has unprecedented influence during this crisis and they are cherry picking 'socially accepted responses' to the virus to make us think we are in the minority, it is mind games to keep us all feeling powerless.

Keep spreading your opinions, while we still have freedom of speech. Make sure all of those in your life to you know are getting the information you are getting.

Shaking My Head ,

I hope you are right but it seems like Canadians are so much more acquiescent than the French who have had mass protests. Here it seems you will get snitched out for walking in the park. I saw a photo of several police in an empty park and the comments were all supportive of these measures to 'keep us safe'. I suppose there could be a small but loud segment of the population who are generally quite terrified of life, who feel powerless, and now are enabled to exercise their inner authoritarian to grasp at some semblance of importance by self-policing and policing others.

[Apr 05, 2020] Case of substitution: Pneumonia deaths down. Covid-19 deaths up.

Apr 05, 2020 |

dltravers , Apr 5 2020 15:12 utc | 6

Not sure what to make of this one..

Pneumonia deaths down.

Covid-19 deaths up.

Pneumonia and influenza survey from the CDC

Anyone in a position to plot this?

Data in csv format format CDC

Norwegian , Apr 5 2020 16:56 utc | 21

@dltravers | Apr 5 2020 15:12 utc | 6
Not sure what to make of this one..

Pneumonia deaths down.

Covid-19 deaths up.

Reallocations. The numbers are manipulated.

[Apr 05, 2020] Mortality by age group

Apr 05, 2020 |

S , Apr 2 2020 16:23 utc | 5

Verity et al. (March 30, 2020) have estimated the (adjusted) case fatality ratio, infection fatality ratio, and proportion of infections requiring hospitalization:

             Crude    Adjusted           Hospitalization
             CFR (%)  CFR (%)   IFR (%)  Rate (%)

    0-9       0.000   0.00260   0.00161   0.00
    10-19     0.182   0.0148    0.00695   0.0408
    20-29     0.193   0.0600    0.0309    1.04
    30-39     0.237   0.146     0.0844    3.43
    40-49     0.443   0.295     0.161     4.25
    50-59     1.30    1.25      0.595     8.16
    60-69     3.60    3.99      1.93     11.8
    70-79     7.96    8.61      4.28     16.6
    80+      14.8    13.4       7.80     18.4

    Total     2.29    1.38      0.657

[Apr 05, 2020] The percentage of deaths by Covid19 in the USA is 17.8 per million citizens, which corresponds to the usual percentage of seasonal influenza.

Apr 05, 2020 |

Luc GUTHRIE , Apr 3 2020 15:13 utc | 279

Message from France :

First premise: This year, the percentage of influenza patients in relation to the total population is the same as in previous years.

Second premise: In previous years, seasonal influenza had a percentage of certain coronaviruses. This year the percentage is similar.

Third premise: The percentage of deaths among people who are infected is no different from other years.

Fourth premise: The media falsifies the percentage of deaths among those who are infected. The only serious study concerning the real mortality in the country where according to the media there are the most deaths (Italy) is the one carried out by the Italian Ministry of Health. It reveals that it is not 12% but 1.2% of sick patients, which corresponds to the usual mortality of influenza.

Fifth premise: this study reveals that the average age of the deceased is 80 years.

Additional information: The percentage of deaths by Covid19 in the USA is 17.8 per million citizens, which corresponds to the usual percentage of seasonal influenza.

Be careful, don't be an accomplice in the panic they want to create: This is essentially a media attack to disguise the economic meltdown they've created.

Translated with (free version)

[Apr 05, 2020] Today 4-3-20, Covid is the third cause of death in USA

Apr 05, 2020 |

DFC , Apr 2 2020 22:11 utc | 103

Today 4-3-20, Covid is the third cause of death in USA, with around 1.100 deaths per day is only behind heart disease (1.774/day) and cancer (1.641/day), but in two weeks is expected to be clearly the leading cause of death in USA as it is now in Italy and Spain. It is a matter of when start to decrease the number of deaths to see if will be, or not, the leading cause of deaths in absolute terms (I expected and I think it will not)

A lot of people are still saying it is a hoax, I think they will continue saying this even if connected to a ventilator (/sarc)

[Apr 03, 2020] The problem of distinguishing "from coronavirus deaths and "with coronavirus" deaths

Apr 03, 2020 |

PokeTheTruth , Apr 2 2020 19:52 utc | 61

A postmortem by a competent pathologist is the only way to confirm cause of death.

Americans must not be led like lemmings over the cliff of disease paranoia chased by an invisible bug unless there is irrefutable proof that COVID-19 and ONLY COVID-19 was the principle reason attributed to a person's demise.

Investigative journalists ( b?) must dig into the facts and interview some of the hundreds of ME's (medical examiners) who performed autopsies on these people and ask these questions:

1. Did the autopsy reveal the presence of other chronic diseases pulmonary or otherwise, that could have contributed to the death of the person (e.g., influenza, COPD, emphysema, tuberculosis, heart disease, cancers, etc.?

2. Was the deceased taking medication that suppressed the immune system such as for rheumatoid arthritis?

3. Did the autopsy reveal the presence of disease of the respiratory system due to harmful inhalants (smoking tobacco, vaping)?

4. Did the autopsy show the patient had heart or vascular problems and had surgeries to correct them such as stent implants, pace maker or other medical devices?

5. Did the deceased receive chemotherapy treatment for cancer related illness?

Unless every answer to the above questions is an affirmative 'No", the public must not believe that only COVID-19 caused the death of these people. This calls into question the number of reported COVID-19 deaths has been deliberately inflated to cause panic in America as well as around the world.

The next question is, for what other purpose are governments doing this?

David F , Apr 2 2020 20:19 utc | 67

PokeTheTruth | Apr 2 2020 19:52 utc | 61

Can you not see the il-logic in your criteria? Suppose a person has an underlying illness, that will eventually prove fatal. If I shoot that person in the head are we going to say that the cause of death was the underlying illness, or are we going to say it was the bullet to the head?

Many people live with underlying illnesses for years. The criteria that should be used is: why did that person die right now? If what killed them right now is a viral infection, then the fact that the underlying illness would have killed them eventually is meaningless, the cause of death is the viral infection.

I think that some people are adamant that they will not believe there is a deadly virus in our midst. Nothing said to them is going to make them believe this, they will keep changing their reasons for the denial. This is somewhat understandable to a point. Yes our government lies about everything, and yes they take every opportunity to enrich themselves and increase their power. My initial reaction was dismissive, I too thought it was a case of overblown hype, but as the days and weeks passed, and the facts changed, so did my opinion.

The overwhelming evidence is pointing to a serious, deadly virus in our midst, and it is time people start acting appropriately. Even the people who understandably ignored the boy who cried wolf, eventually came to the realization that there was indeed a wolf in their midst.

[Apr 01, 2020] Does COVID-19 produce excessive mortality in comparison with seasonal flu epidemic?

Apr 01, 2020 |

Lev Ke , Apr 1 2020 15:57 utc | 247

Here, b. The Swiss Propaganda Research did the work for you and brought us via its Dutch sister website the official mortality numbers of Holland over the past years up until 18/3/20.
It's a huge pity that I can't paste a picture here, because this graph really says it all.

It's a graph of numbers recorded by the same official source that simply collects the weekly death rates in Holland. Numbers that up until now were totally apolitical and neutral. Nobody cared.

Two years ago, due to a heavy flu season, a whopping 9,444 excess deaths were counted. The present corona mortality is nowhere near such numbers and will probably never get there.
But two years ago there was no panic, no lockdown, no nothing. Just an unfortunate heavy flu season.

Not a good enough reason to question anything? No need to get this truth out? No need for rationality and a woke population? No need for whatever MoA is meant to be?

[Apr 01, 2020] The "excess deaths" and the number of hospitalized people are two important metrics for the sizing the epidemic

Apr 01, 2020 |

BM , Apr 1 2020 11:07 utc | 206

Add to the above from the link Yerige kindly posted

The Covid-19 death toll is for abusing the deranged masses; it's the other data that's important
Posted by: Yerige | Apr 1 2020 9:44 utc | 194

As from today the daily "Covid-19" death toll will include data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) regarding deaths that occur external to hospital. Basically, anyone who dies and is not being treated in a hospital at the time, but nevertheless has "Covid-19" registered on the associated death certificate, will be counted in the official toll. Those of us who are not prone to become unhinged at the slightest nudging towards it by Government psychological manipulation will have the sense to realise that this development will not be wholly unrelated to the arrival of the Coronavirus Bill, and how it has created an environment where there is potential for a good deal of abuse in order to create the impression of copious amounts of death by "Covid-19"


The reason why excess death is a crucial way of getting a handle on the issue should be well understood by a FBEL reader, but to explain briefly: it has been the tendency by the medical establishment to attribute death by other causes to so-called Covid-19 (and now, if the reader examines the corporate-media reportage carefully, coronavirus)†. As such, we should expect to see no great deal of excess death (or more death than usual), but instead numbers under one column on a ledger shifted across to another headed "Covid-19".


Even so, when the Chief Executive says that [nine] thousand people are hospitalised, it might sound scary to the psychologically damaged masses that would be intensely following the "war reports" of the sort that Stevens was holding. However, one should consider how there are 100,000 "general and acute" beds in NHS England, and how, in the year 2018-19, the institution saw 626,000 admissions for "influenza, pneumonia". The source for this data is the House of Commons briefing paper, Number 7281, 20 February 2020, "NHS Key Statistics: England, February 2020", which is online for anyone who isn't deranged to find.

Peter AU1 , Apr 1 2020 11:25 utc | 210

BM 206

If somebody dies of pneumonia and lung biopsy turns up coronavirus then it likely coronavirus caused the death. It would be interesting though to see how officialdom does actually determine if a death outside hospital is determined but I take it that would be done by autopsy. Something the writer at your link didn't look into or mention.

[Mar 28, 2020] Looks like in Italy Coronavirus mostly speed up the demise of already severely sick and very old persons.

Mar 28, 2020 |

Brabantian , says: Show Comment March 27, 2020 at 4:31 pm GMT

Extensive details from medical professionals, on just what an exaggerated scam this coronavirus Covid-19 panic is

In reality, what we have is a somewhat worse flu season 99% affecting the elderly and chronically ill, e.g., a young person dying turned out to have hidden leukemia

'A Swiss Doctor on Covid-19'
published by Swiss Propaganda Research
also here
(Much material is below the original article and footnotes, in the daily updates toward the bottom)

[Hide MORE]

Most major media falsely report that Italy has up to 800 deaths per day from the coronavirus. In reality, the president of the Italian Civil Protection Service stresses that these are deaths WITH the coronavirus and not FROM the coronavirus. In other words, these persons died while also testing positive [not nececessarily causal]

Between those who died *from* the coronavirus and those who died *with* the coronavirus, it is not clear whether the person died from the pre-existing chronic diseases

Renowned Italian virologist Giulio Tarro argues that the mortality rate of Covid19 is below 1% even in Italy and is therefore comparable to influenza. The higher values only arise because no distinction is made between deaths with and by Covid19 and because the number of (symptom-free) infected persons is greatly underestimated.

Stanford Professor John Ioannidis showed that the age-corrected lethality of Covid19 is between 0.025% and 0.625%, i.e. in the range of a strong cold or the flu

A Japanese study showed that of all the test-positive cruise passengers, and despite high average age, 48% remained completely symptom-free; even among the 80-89 year olds 48% remained symptom-free, while among 70 to 79 year olds it was an astounding 60% that developed no symptoms at all.

The Italian example has shown that 99% of test-positive deaths had one or more pre-existing conditions, and even among these, only 12% of the death certificates mentioned Covid19 as a causal factor.

Average age of the positively-tested deceased in Italy is currently about 81 years. 10% of the deceased are over 90 years old. 90% of the deceased are over 70 years old.

80% of the deceased had suffered from two or more chronic diseases. 50% of the deceased had suffered from three or more chronic diseases.

Less than 1% of deceased were healthy persons

Northern Italy has one of the oldest populations and the worst air quality in Europe, which had already led to an increased number of respiratory diseases and deaths in the past

Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera points out that Italian intensive care units already collapsed under the marked flu wave in 2017/2018.

Argentinean virologist and biochemist Pablo Goldschmidt explains that Covid19 is no more dangerous than a bad cold or the flu.

Dr. Goldschmidt speaks of a „global terror" created by the media and politics. Every year, he says, three million newborns worldwide and 50,000 adults in the US alone die of pneumonia.

German Professor Karin Moelling, former Chair of Medical Virology at the University of Zurich, stated in an interview that Covid19 is „no killer virus" and that „panic must end".

Countries like South Korea and Japan that introduced no lockdown measures have experienced near-zero excess mortality in connection with Covid-19

Swiss deaths so far were also high-risk patients with chronic diseases, an average age of more than 80 years and a maximum age of 97 years

According to all current data, for the healthy general population of school and working age, a mild to moderate course of Covid-19 can be expected.

Official data on deaths from pneumonia in the US. There are usually between 3000 and 5500 deaths per week and thus significantly more than the current figures for Covid19

[Mar 26, 2020] 'The director of the German National Health Institute (RKI) confirmed that they count all test-positive deaths, irrespective of the actual cause of death, as coronavirus deaths". The average age of the deceased is 82 years, most with serious preconditions. As in most other countries, excess mortality due Covid19 is likely to be near zero in Germany.'

Mar 26, 2020 |

cranc , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 8:04 am GMT

I think that Ron Unz is gravely mistaken in his analysis here.
There is a growing body of opinion amongst medical professionals and academics that questions the benefits of a lockdown balanced against what we know of the danger from the virus. Ron has not included any of this in his article here, and he should.
Studies are emerging which are indeed showing that infection stats may be orders of magnitude higher than official estimates, that hospitalisation rates are therefore much lower, and the overall threat overshaddowed by the consequences of closing down the economy and open society.
As ever the media is the prime culprit in spreading fear and hysteria. Alt media have an obligation to question the very basis of the covid pandemic response.
'The director of the German National Health Institute (RKI) confirmed that they count all test-positive deaths, irrespective of the actual cause of death, as „coronavirus deaths". The average age of the deceased is 82 years, most with serious preconditions. As in most other countries, excess mortality due Covid19 is likely to be near zero in Germany.'
12 experts speak out:
From yesterday in WSJ ('Is The Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?'):
A study from Oxford University Epdemiologists confirming doubts about lethality:
Even the UK government website confirms that the covid virus has been re-classified as no longer on the register of High Consequence Infectious Diseases (on March 19th, just before the government closed down the whole society).
There is more going on here than the virus. Maybe it is incompetence and panic, or something more disturbing. Either way, alt media voices have a duty to report the growing doubt about how deadly this virus really is or isn't.
Alfred , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 9:01 am GMT

According to Dr. Ferguson the "best case" scenario is that the Coronavirus will kill over a million Americans.

According to the pie chart below, which is based on the Italian experience, 99.2% of those who die have one or more pre-existing health condition. I suspect that if you were to exclude those under 60, the result would go up to 99.9%

This data strongly suggests that only those who are over 60 should be obliged to remain at home. This virus has seemingly been going around the USA since last September and a lot of those who caught it and died were classified as flu victims or something else.

Every year, several millions die in the USA. That is normal. The deaths allegedly from this virus would have probably died anyway. At worst, their useless lives would have been curtailed by one or two years. Don't forget that 90% of a person's lifetime health costs are expended in the past year of "life". BTW, I am 69 so don't accuse me of ageism or any such nonsense please.

[Mar 26, 2020] Accuracy of death data is high suspect

Mar 26, 2020 |

Realist , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 11:24 am GMT

Similarly, New York reported its first death on March 14th. Yet just ten days later, deaths in that state were running at 50 per day, and rapidly accelerating.

You mean first death attributed to Covid-19 after testing started. How many died of Covid-19 before testing? It is not known at what stage of the epidemic, testing started therefore accuracy of data is suspect.

[Mar 26, 2020] Virus hype and Hubei province reality

Mar 26, 2020 |

Weston Waroda , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 3:22 pm GMT

The Coronavirus epidemic may soon produce the greatest American disaster since our Civil War over 150 years ago, and numbers reveal the possible magnitude.

The current data out of China, and Wuhan in particular, suggest otherwise. They have closed all 19 temporary hospitals set up there to treat the coronavirus infections. The only way you can believe a minimum of one million Americans will die from the coronavirus is to believe that these figures from Hubei province have been falsified in some way.

Hubei, China
Confirmed: 67,801
Deaths: 3,163
Recovered: 60,811
Existing: 3,827

Nevertheless, your figures are very sobering.

[Mar 26, 2020] There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Mar 26, 2020 |

follyofwar , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 3:26 pm GMT

@niteranger When considering what the authorities, both medical and political, are constantly telling us about how deadly this pandemic is, I think back to my college Statistics course of nearly 50 years ago. On the first day of class the professor told the old joke that "there are lies, damned lies, and statistics." I'm sure most who read here have heard of that bromide, but it is still well to keep it in mind. Don't forget, most have an agenda.

[Mar 26, 2020] If the New York Post is correct in reporting that half the UK population have already been infected with Covid-19, while only 422 deaths have resulted, we can infer that the death rate from this virus is in the order of 0.0006%, give or take the odd zero.

Mar 26, 2020 |

CanSpeccy , says: Website Show Comment Next New Comment March 25, 2020 at 5:03 pm GMT

If the New York Post is correct in reporting that half the UK population have already been infected with Covid-19 , while only 422 deaths have resulted, we can infer that the death rate from this virus is in the order of 0.0006%, give or take the odd zero.

If that's the case, then maybe I don't need to worry that most of the people where I live seem, like St-Germain, above, too dumb to understand the meaning of the term social distancing .

[Mar 26, 2020] In Italy for seniors in high risk group time between symptoms and death is just around eight day

Mar 26, 2020 |

For the victims of coronavirus the median time from the first symptoms to hospitalization is 4 days, and the median time to death is 8 days, according to a report by the Italian National Institute of Health.

The study comes as the number of Covid-19 deaths in the country continues to increase. On Wednesday, the number of people who have died from coronavirus jumped to 2,978, recording the largest one-day increase - 475 - since the beginning of the outbreak, while the​​​​​​​ number of infected people rose to over 28,000.

According to the study, which was run on 2,003 patients who have died from coronavirus, the most affected region is Lombardy reporting around 71.1% of the deaths, followed by Emilia-Romagna (17.3%) and Veneto (3.9%).

The​​​​​​​ median age of death is 80.5 while the median age of the people who got infected is 63. As of March 17, among the coronavirus victims only 17 people were younger than age 50 and only 30% were women. The​​​​​​​ majority of patients were treated with antibiotics (83%), while antiviral therapies were used in 52% of cases.

According to the study, most of the people who have died suffered from previous illnesses before contracting the coronavirus. Based on a sample of 355 out of 2003 fatalities, the institute found that almost half of the victims had three or more illnesses, a quarter had either two or one prior medical condition - such as high blood pressure (76%), diabetes (35.5%) and heart disease (33%) - and only 3 people, or 0.8% of the sample, had no previous illnesses.

[Mar 26, 2020] Oxford's Centre for Evidence Based Medicine is providing regular updates of an estimate of the infection fatality rate for Covid-19. Their current estimate is 0.20% (95% CI, 0.17 to 0.25).

Mar 26, 2020 |

Ami , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 6:36 am GMT

@NPleeze Oxford's Centre for Evidence Based Medicine is providing regular updates of an estimate of the infection fatality rate for Covid-19. Their current estimate is 0.20% (95% CI, 0.17 to 0.25).

Two Stanford doctors writing in The Wall Street Journal suggest that the fatality rate could be as low as 0.01%, which is about one-tenth the mortality of seasonal flu. They suggest that a better strategy than widespread lockdowns would be to focus on protecting vulnerable members of the population, particularly the elderly.

Both of these estimates would result in far, far fewer deaths than the garbage-in garbage-out models produced by Imperial College and others.

[Mar 25, 2020] Via the CDC As of March 20, 2020 there Are 100 times as many Flu Deaths in US this Season than Coronavirus Deaths

Mar 25, 2020 |

Agent76 , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 2:22 pm GMT

March 20, 2020 STUNNING! Via the CDC As of Friday There Are 100 TIMES AS MANY Flu Deaths in US this Season than Coronavirus Deaths

According to the weekly CDC flu report -- flu deaths are up by 1,000 over last week. And according to the global coronavirus trackers US coronavirus deaths are up by 218 this week.

Nov 4, 2019 Event 201 Pandemic Exercise: Segment 4, Communications Discussion and Epilogue Video

Event 201 is a pandemic tabletop exercise hosted by The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. The exercise illustrated the pandemic preparedness efforts needed to diminish the large-scale economic and societal consequences of a severe pandemic.

[Mar 25, 2020] Difificulties of correctly estimating mortality

Notable quotes:
"... The reason younger Americans are dying is because Americans are extremely unhealthy. I wager all the very sick younger Americans are obese, probably with diabetes, don't exercise, and eat unhealthy foods, leading to heart and other weaknesse ..."
"... I share your skepticism. Do the "tests" prove that COVID-19 causes illness? Is it possible that some or even all of the deaths associated with COVID-19 have been primarily caused by other factors? Is it possible that COVID-19 is very widespread in contemporary populations and is harmless in most or even all people in which it exists? ..."
Mar 25, 2020 |

Pft , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 4:51 am GMT

"However, the Coronavirus death statistics are certainly far more solid and reliable"

Are they really?

Report shows up to 88% of Italy's alleged Covid19 deaths could be misattributed

"The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus [ ] On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three,"

– Professor Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy's minister of health
Report in English:

Truth3 , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 4:55 am GMT
@Trinity Trinity, I'm about 99% sure I had this thing.

Stay safe. It's brutal.

Let the assholes like utu, FB, Frannie, CoMike, Lot, and all their (((kind))) get it.

What comes around goes around. Zio-Bio didn't end with Dr. Zack.

NPleeze , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 5:10 am GMT

the Coronavirus death statistics are certainly far more solid and reliable

But still quite unreliable. Nobody knows what tests are being performed or how accurate those tests are. For all we know they are calling flu/pneumonia deaths as COVID-19 deaths, whether deliberately/recklessly (pressured) or because the tests are simply faulty.

If we assume a mortality rate of 1%

Based on what? As noted, the best case of a general population exposure is the Diamond Princess – where all passengers were exposed fully for 2 weeks and then under terrible quarantine conditions for 4 weeks. Of the 3,177 passengers and crew, some 677 (20%) took ill, and 7 (0.2% of the population, and 1% of the ill) died, all of them in their 70s and older (and indeed the data released by the Japanese health ministry indicates the ship had twice the number of people in each age category 60-79, 70-79, and 80+ than does the US).

Conveniently, everyone repeating the hysteria line completely omits to look at the best data available.

Number of infected = Number of Deaths / Mortality_Rate * 2^(Mortality_Period/Doubling_Period)

Nothing in nature is exponential as everything runs up against some barrier, usually sooner than later. I can make the argument about rabbit reproduction: each female rabbit can produce 60 rabbits per year in three litters. This would indicate that each male/female pair increases 10-fold every 3 months – a far faster growth rate than your virus. And under certain conditions, they can, for a time, accomplish that before they hit the proverbial brick wall.

Let's look at Italy. The first recorded death (FWIW) was Feb. 21. Now using your assumptions, there had been 100 new infections three weeks earlier (on Jan. 31). Next, as you assume a doubling-period of 6 days, those 100 infections would have increased to 100 x 2^(37/6) = 7,183 infections by the time of March 8, when the emergency orders went into effect. However, on March 8 there had already been 366 deaths. Since the disease, according to your model, takes 3 weeks to kill, this means we need to look at the number of infections on Feb. 21, which, in your model, equals 100 x 2^(21/6) = 1,131.

In other words, on Feb. 21 there were 1,131 persons infected, and of those, 366 had died by March 8. For a mortality rate of 32.3%.

But let's work backwards from another date. By Mar. 24, there had been 6,820 deaths. To arrive at that, using your assumed death rate, that means by Mar. 3, 682,000 people had to be infected (since 1% of them would die within 3 weeks). Which means, according to your model, that 341,000 were infected on Feb. 26, 170,500 on Feb. 20. But your model already showed that only 1,131 were infected on Feb. 21.

In other words, this "model" is utter bunk.

What we do know is as follows: the death rate on the Diamond Princess, under terrible conditions, was 0.2%, all over 70.

The global death rate is about 18,000 dead out of 7 billion. The annual tuberculosis death number is between 1 and 2 million.

That people who are very old (and thus have compromised immune systems) or people who have various chronic diseases are the ones who die from this disease. This is because the virus can attack numerous receptors, including those in the kidney, liver, heart, white blood cells, and pancreas (a sort of "frankenstein" bio-engineered virus). Thus anyone with a weak pancreas (diabetes), kidney, liver, heart (hypertension, etc.), or lungs (smokers, etc.) are susceptible to having an organ fail.

The death rate will grow only among this segment of the population. It is enough to isolate them (or, better yet, have them self-isolate).

The reason younger Americans are dying is because Americans are extremely unhealthy. I wager all the very sick younger Americans are obese, probably with diabetes, don't exercise, and eat unhealthy foods, leading to heart and other weaknesses.

All of this apart from the issue, of how long this virus has been in the wild. It seems my mother caught this disease in early February, in a small Midwestern isolated community – she had what are given at the symptoms, but nobody was looking for it at the time, so there is no diagnosis of her illness.

alan kerns , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 5:15 am GMT

I share your skepticism. Do the "tests" prove that COVID-19 causes illness? Is it possible that some or even all of the deaths associated with COVID-19 have been primarily caused by other factors? Is it possible that COVID-19 is very widespread in contemporary populations and is harmless in most or even all people in which it exists?

These questions deserve forensically rigorous investigation – conducted and reported honestly.

[Mar 25, 2020] A new study shows the coronavirus mortality rate in Wuhan, China, may have been lower than previous estimates

Mar 25, 2020 |

Allen , Mar 24 2020 16:00 utc | 8

A new study shows the coronavirus mortality rate in Wuhan, China, may have been lower than previous estimates.

According to research published in the monthly Nature Medicine journal, the death rate from the coronavirus disease, COVID-19, in Wuhan -- the epicenter of the global outbreak -- was 1.4%.

"Using public and published information, we estimate that the overall symptomatic case fatality risk (the probability of dying after developing symptoms) of COVID-19 in Wuhan was 1.4%," reads the body_abstract of the study.

The study -- titled "Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China" -- said the estimate was "substantially lower than both the corresponding crude or naive confirmed case fatality risk".

Previous estimates placed the mortality rate in Wuhan between 2% to 3%.

Underlining that fatality risk was higher for the elderly, the study found 2.6% mortality rate among people over 60 years in Wuhan, 0.5% for people aged between 30 to 59, and 0.3% for people under 30 years.

The COVID-19 outbreak that started in Wuhan has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO).

Data compiled by the U.S.-based Johns Hopkins University shows the virus has now spread to 167 countries and regions.

Over 341,700 cases and 14,750 deaths have been reported worldwide since last December, while more than 98,860 people have recovered.

Transmission in China has slowed down over recent weeks, with authorities reporting no new indigenous cases on Monday.

There were also no new infections in Wuhan city for the fifth consecutive day, according to China's National Health Commission.

[Mar 25, 2020] COVID 19 vs seasonal flu

Mar 25, 2020 |

brian , Mar 23 2020 21:30 utc | 78

#COVIDー19 vs #flu
'So far, #COVIDー19 has led to > 220,000 illnesses and >9,300 deaths worldwide. But that's nothing compared with the flu. In the US alone, flu has caused an estimated 36 million illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths this season, according to CDC. '

[Mar 25, 2020] Does virus spread exponentially

Mar 25, 2020 |

utu , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 11:20 am GMT

"Italian deaths are not rising exponentially. "

I am pretty sure they were in the initial period but once the epidemic spreads into areas with different population densities where doubling periods are different and when new countermeasures are being implemented you will see departures from the exponential growth.

Even w/o countermeasures when more and more people get infected the reproduction number R0 will be getting smaller resulting in a steady decrease of the exponential coefficient.

Zhanwei Du et al. studied the exponential growth in Wuhan in the period before quarantine was imposed. See the Appendix in
The COVID-19 epidemic was growing exponentially during December 1, 2019– January 22, 2020, as determined by the following: dI(t) = I0 × exp(λ × t) in which I0 denotes the number of initial cases on December 1, 2019, and λ denotes the epidemic growth rate during December 1, 2019–January 22, 2020.

What is important about Ron Unz approach is that by looking at daily death increments one can gage the number of new infections and as the epidemic progresses the changes in doubling period would be adjusted from daily death increments.

In times when very few tests are being done to asymptomatic patients and no serum tests are performed to determine who already went through infection and recovered this approach is very useful and simple method to estimate the extent of the epidemic.

[Mar 24, 2020] In Italy the median age of those dying of the coronavirus is 81 and the population is very old and frail and smokes more. Most of the dead are men

Mar 24, 2020 |

Arby , Mar 24 2020 7:16 utc | 185

"Italy is known for its enormous morbidity in respiratory problems, more than three times any other European country. In the US about 40,000 people die in a regular flu season and so far 40-50 people have died of the coronavirus, most of them in a nursing home in Kirkland, Washington."

"The characteristics in every country are different. In Italy the median age of those dying of the coronavirus is 81 and the population is very old and frail and smokes more and among the dead are more men." - Professor Yoram Lass /

[Mar 24, 2020] Exaggerated case fatality rate is not based on evidence. The evidence point out to mortality around 0.2 percent

Mar 24, 2020 |

Pft , Mar 24 2020 1:34 utc | 128

Exaggerated case fatality rate (CFR):

European Journal of Clinical Investigation
"Coronavirus disease 2019: the harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measure
John P.A. Ioannidis
First published: 19 March 2020

Early reported CFR figures seem exaggerated.

The most widely quoted CFR has been 3.4%, reported by WHO dividing the number of deaths by documented cases in early March.

This ignores undetected infections and the strong age-dependence of CFR. The most complete data come from Diamond Princess passengers, with CFR=1% observed in an elderly cohort; thus, CFR may be much lower than 1% in the general population; probably higher than seasonal flu (CFR=0.1%), but not much so.

Observed crude CFR in South Korea and in Germany, , the countries with most extensive testing, is 0.9% and 0.2%, respectively as of March 14 and crude CFR in Scandinavian countries is about 0.1%. Some deaths of infected, seriously ill people will occur later, and these deaths have not been counted yet. However even in these countries many infections probably remain undiagnosed. Therefore, CFR may be even lower rather than higher than these crude estimate

[Mar 24, 2020] A 2016 Johns Hopkins study concluded that 250,000 Americans die annually from medical negligence. And that's just mortality; imagine the morbidity.

Mar 24, 2020 |

SafeNow , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 4:25 am GMT

I posted this before but it bears posting again. A 2016 Johns Hopkins study concluded that 250,000 Americans die annually from medical negligence. And that's just mortality; imagine the morbidity.

Long waits for short appointments. Protective, sanctimonious medical front offices. A lifetime of frustrating, humiliating, frightening fighting for access. If a presidential candidate made a promise to double the number of physicians, starting right now, he would be elected in a landslide. Sure, it would take seven years before this kicked in. But start right now. For this coming fall semester, the medical schools need only to have more seats.

As long as I am talking about laws that nearly everyone would support .about those leaf blowers

[Mar 24, 2020] China on Jan 22 had 571 case and on Feb 1 14,308 cases while the US on March 8 had 541 cases and it reached 13,789 cases on March 19. So US is about 45 days behind China

Mar 24, 2020 |

Philip Owen , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 5:43 pm GMT

@Ron Unz Wrong!

We know from the Diamond Princess and now the Costa Luminosa that SARS-CoV-2 is not extremely contagious.

17% of the people on the DP were infected, half without symptoms (perhaps even false positives -- the jury is out). 52 from 3711 (1.4 %) became critically ill or died.

On the CL 74 (known to be an overcount, in a shared cabin both were counted as critical) from 1471 (5% or less) became critically ill or died according to current information.

So, in cases of 100% population exposure, or as close as it will be in this world we see 1 to 5% critically ill (assuming a consistent definition of critically ill).

They could easily be lost in the everyday winter flu statistics in the US. The deaths from vaping are a key clue.

utu , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 7:08 pm GMT
@Philip Owen "not extremely contagious" -- You are making a wrong conclusion. Passengers on Diamond Princess were isolated in their cabins. Passengers who tested positive were taken out of the ship to military hospital in Japan. Diamond Princess was not a peri dish! The epidemic was arrested there and stopped.

" passengers who tested positive [ ] have been transferred to hospitals "

"For those left on board, there is nothing to do but sit in their cabins, wait for meals to be delivered, watch television or choose from a limited selection of movies on demand. Those lucky enough to have a balcony can at least sit in the sun, look at the ocean and talk to their neighbors."

[Mar 24, 2020] Why the neoliberal media reports death from COVID-19 in Las Vegas but not death caused by Type A flu

Mar 24, 2020 |

Carlton Meyer , says: Website Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 4:23 am GMT

After 9-11, the Feds surveyed hospitals to determine if they were prepared to handle extreme emergencies where they couldn't handle the patient load and were forced to triage and delay treatments. They learned that most hospitals were already overwhelmed every Friday and Saturday night, and many were unable to handle the demand every night. So the photos, videos, and reports of packed emergency rooms and hospitals unable to properly handle COVID-19 cases is normal.

News from my blog:

Mar 22, 2020 – Coronavirus Hoax?

I am no medical expert but can check stats. Take a look at the flu stats at the Southern Nevada Health District (aka Las Vegas metro area).

As of March 7th, the flu has killed 39 people while news reports that one died from the COVID-19 virus. The Type A flu killed 28, or 28 times more than the COVID-19 virus. Updated stats should appear this week, but the media reported a second death from COVID-19 in Las Vegas, with no mention of the others killed by Type A flu. I expect COVID-19 deaths to rise quickly, but will be surprised if they exceed the Type A flu deaths.

[Mar 23, 2020] There is by now lots of material on the internet for the reader to understand how deaths by pre-existing illness have been attributed to Covid-19

Mar 23, 2020 |

john , Mar 22 2020 15:30 utc | 5

UK Government's Chief Science Advisor Reveals "Covid-19" Deaths Are Deaths As Normal; BBC Admits It Too

There is by now lots of material on the internet for the reader to understand how deaths by pre-existing illness have been attributed to Covid-19, and this site provides a reasonably good starting place (please see the article linked to above titled, Covid-19 and pneumonic immune system overreaction).

On the other hand, the effort to get to grips with the reason that a fake pandemic has been used by governments in the west to destroy the livelihoods of their governed is something that has not solidified into a coherent and demonstrable idea, and perhaps the only proof of the pudding will be in the eating; i.e. we will only know when it is happening to us.

However, at that stage knowledge of Covid-19 as the phantom scapegoat will be well established.

And just as the widespread exposure of al-Qaeda, which was the equivalent bogeyman device in the War on Terror as an Orwellian tool of those executing the reaction to (their own) terrorist provocation, proved to undermine and cause to fail a plan for domination of foreign territory by Globalist financier class interests, so too will widespread appreciation of the true nature of Covid-19 undermine and cause to fail the irregular warfare that is now being unleashed on domestic territories

[Mar 23, 2020] deaths to infections are around 1.5% and deaths to total world population are negligible to the point of irrelevancy. Other tropical diseases kill millions annually with hardly a blink from anyone or any government. Deaths from road accidents worldwide must be in the hundreds of thousands. Why is there no shutdown or driver quarantine internationally ?

Mar 23, 2020 |

calculator , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 1:20 pm GMT

@Digital Samizdat I agree the thing is a HOAX.

First of all I see few people wearing masks in my city. In photos on the internet and media websites those that do seem to be staged photos. The thumbnail photo for this article supposedly shows Italy, the country allegedly hardest hit, the Roman Arena in the background but only one girl wearing a mask. Yet I hear the virus is spreading like "wildfire" and such nonsense. I read congregations of more than 50 people is prohibited but yet see supermarkets full of folks jostling each other. Even on the internet I see photos beating the virulence and destructive power of the virus, photos with 20 people and only 2 wearing masks.

Second, every country is "locking down" although deaths to infections are around 1.5% and deaths to total world population are negligible to the point of irrelevancy. Other tropical diseases kill millions annually with hardly a blink from anyone or any government. Deaths from road accidents worldwide must be in the hundreds of thousands. Why is there no shutdown or driver quarantine internationally ? One is at greater risk of violence in modern day urban centers. We have African countries with germs scientists have not even discovered "locking down".

Third, the "experts" seem to be clueless and clued out. One minute everyone has to self quarantine and now I see the leading WHO expert saying everything cannot be locked down. They need to identify the infected and their contacts and isolate THEM or else the virus "could jump up again". Other experts not to be outdone assert the virus could reappear in September. Then there is all the jargon like social distancing and flattening the curve.

Fourth, all the billions now being thrown around for the "War" on the virus is like spilling honey on an ants nest. I dont want to be crass but will health units accurately test and report results. Lets say a Government has set aside $100,000 per infected citizen. Go to the hospital with a sniffle and you may well be diagnosed with the virus, the health professionals only too happy to bill the Government. Since it is you, a wife and three kids and you had a birthday party recently with 14 other relatives one is now running into the millions. There seems to be too much incentive to flog this virus and milk every penny possible from whoever is shovelling out the cash.

Fifth, this virus seems to be killing people well up in their age whose immune systems are already weak. Germs, insects and pests and scavengers always congregate where there is filth. Poor eating habits, bad diet, lack of exercise, smoking, drinking and use of recreational and other drugs weaken the immune system and make the blood dirty leaving it open to infection by ANY germ or virus that comes along. In any case the media seems to tout statistics in a dishonest way. For example "Country X now has 30,000 infections" is spun as if the 30,000 died or "Deaths shatter records, rise by 30%" when in fact the 30% rise amounts to three people.

I could go on for another 2000 words. Even poor Harvey, locked away in jail is now infected. Everyone is looking for an angle and flogging this virus. Everyone forgets we went through this with Swine Flu, Bird Flu, West Nile, Sars and Anthrax. Now it is COVID ! Everyone is looking for a payout. The herd instinct s strong, monkey see monkey do. States with no infections are locking down.

Finally, there si all the finger pointing about the origin of the virus and the name squeezes out accusations of racism, bigotry and whatever. It now seems fashionable to have the virus with Mr and Mrs Rich and Famous claiming to have tested for it and so forth. Yahoo had an article today showing a well dressed white girl wearing a black mask in front of a chinese building. Looked like a photoshoot and recently there was an article from a boy telling what is was like to have the virus. He looked very healthy with a big smile. I guess he is one of those rare characters who can be flat on their backs for 2 weeks with a deadly virus and come out looking like Clark Gable.

As to why this would NOT be a hoax. Why would the market crash and the economy be ruined ? The answer to me is that it started as a virus and people saw a way they could exploit it. Maybe they never expected the reaction in terms of shutdowns and lockups , maybe they never expected the reactions to be so out of control but ultimately the reason is MONEY.

The public gets fooled everytime with this nonsense or some other rubbish. The traditional media and social media flog this virus ad nauseum to the point where ordinary folks panic from the sheer volume of information and opinions and "research" .Brace yourselves, 2021 or 2022 will bring another "catastrophe" and we will fall for the b/s all over again. I dont know about other commentators but I am tired of the whole thing and the cure will decimate many more than the virus itself.

[Mar 22, 2020] The death rate in Hubei province is 5% of all infected

Mar 22, 2020 |

Peter AU1 , Mar 22 2020 6:19 utc | 100

"It is the existence of these serious cases (absurdly estimated at 15% of the cases, probably in reality 10 times less) that justifies not simply relying on group immunity. ..."

Hubei is the best figures we have at the moment. Still 5,000 or so active cases there but everything has stabilized enough to get an idea of percentages.

Numbers at the moment

Recovered 59,432
Deaths 3,144
Active 5224

That gives a death rate of around 5% of those infected. There will also be a good number have suffered permanent lung damage, perhaps another 5%.

No medical care and those numbers go a lot higher.

[Mar 20, 2020] Coronavirus reduced mortality in GB

Mar 20, 2020 |

Steve Hayes ,

According to the Office of National Statistics, in the week ending the 6th of March 10 895 deaths were registered in England and Wales. The average number of deaths registered for the corresponding week over the previous five years was 11 498. So the coronavirus appears to be reducing mortality.

[Mar 20, 2020] Peel the onion back further and reveal if the elderly who died had previous pulmonary problems (e.g. emphysema, COPD, asthma, pulmonary fibrosis, cystic fibrosis, lung cancer, tuberculous, etc) and what immuno-suppressant medications they were taking.

Mar 20, 2020 |

PokeTheTruth , Mar 19 2020 19:09 utc | 130

The American people need to demand the age groups of all the deaths due to the SARS-CoV-2 variant of coronavirus. We will find the highest group that have succumbed to the disease are 60 years and older. I want to see numbers for each State in the Republic, not percentages.

Then peel the onion back further and reveal if the elderly who died had previous pulmonary problems (e.g. emphysema, COPD, asthma, pulmonary fibrosis, cystic fibrosis, lung cancer, tuberculous, etc) and what immuno-suppressant medications they were taking.

If in fact it turns out the majority who perish are old people, then the deaths could be attributed to influenza, which is the epidemic that is going on right now in the country. There are 29 million people infected and more than 4,500 have died so far with two months to go in the flu season.

The patients are not being swabbed for influenza and testing for that disease, just COVID-19. This skews the numbers away from influenza so the media screams every day about COVID-19.

[Mar 15, 2020] Those that bent the curve enough to keep their health care providers from being overwhelmed and who have enough tests administered to get a better count of infections, seem to be slightly less than 1% mortality.

Mar 15, 2020 |
  1. JaneE , March 15, 2020 3:40 pm

    There is a wide divergence in the death rates between countries. Those that bent the curve enough to keep their health care providers from being overwhelmed and who have enough tests administered to get a better count of infections, seem to be slightly less than 1% mortality. Those with overwhelmed systems and hospitals are 3 or 4% or higher. That is still close to 10 times the flu at best. If we do get to the "overwhelmed" category, the death rate may go much much higher.

[Mar 14, 2020] All viruses mostly kill elderly, all eventually burn out and reappear in a less virulent form. I do not see how COVID-19 is different from that.

Mar 14, 2020 |

Pft says: Show Comment March 13, 2020 at 5:07 am GMT 500 Words Actually, this is so wrong.

AK: Comment is plagiarized (h/t utu). Go to the source:

[Hide MORE]

We dont actually know the CFR for covid-19 or influenza. Few people are tested for influenza. Cdc uses models. Cdc says between about 70 percent and 85 percent of seasonal flu-related deaths have occurred in people 65 years and older. A typical year has 30,000 flu deaths so thats 20,000 -25,000 deaths in elderly per year and thats with vaccination.

The elderly with severe pneumonia from flu requiring a hospital stay have a 20% fatality rate

The true case fatality rate, known as CFR, of this virus is likely to be far lower than current reports suggest. Even some lower estimates, such as the 1 percent death rate recently mentioned by the directors of the National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, likely substantially overstate the case.

We shouldn't be surprised that the numbers are inflated. In past epidemics, initial CFRs were also exaggerated. For example, in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic some early estimates of 12% CFR, declined to 1.28 percent in the end (probably overstated since cdc recommended no testing by summer of 2009 and used models ). In Wuhan, the CFR was more than 4 percent. As the virus spread to other parts of Hubei, the number fell to 2 percent. As it spread through China, the reported CFR dropped further, to 0.2 to 0.4 percent. As testing begins to include more asymptomatic and mild cases, more realistic numbers are starting to surface. John Hopkins University published a report suggesting actual cases in Hubei were an order of magnitude higher since they did few testing for 2 months, testing only serious/cases. That brings the cfr down in hubei to 0.3% like the rest of China which is heavily polluted with most of the male population smoking

In China, 9 million people die per year, which comes out to 25,000 people every single day, or around 1.5 million people over the past two months alone. Many of these deaths results from diseases like emphysema/COPD, lower respiratory infections, and cancers of the lung and airway whose symptoms are clinically indistinguishable from the nonspecific symptoms seen in severe COVID-19 cases. During the peak of the outbreak in China in January and early February, around 25 patients per day were dying with SARS-CoV-2. Most were older patients in whom the chronic diseases listed above are prevalent.

This is where the Diamond Princess data provides important insight. Of the 3,711 people on board, at least 705 have tested positive for the virus . Of those, more than half are asymptomatic, while very few asymptomatic people were tested in China. With flu we know 16% of those infected are asymptomatic. Some estimates put it as high as 60%. Especially if you use pcr tests which dont tell you anything about if thr RNA fragments were from currently infectious particles. On the Diamond Princess, 7 deaths have occurred among the passengers, constituting a case fatality rate of 1% percent. 0.2% of the ships passengers died. All of the passengers were elderly while the younger crew members /passengers were much better off. Its not unknown what percentage of passengers were elderly but lets assume 25%. That gives a fatality rate among the elderly of 0.8%. Same as flu.

I rest my case.

utu , says: Show Comment March 13, 2020 at 6:30 am GMT

@Anonymous (n) 60,000 people die every month in Italy. Many of them old. Now we have 1,000 reported dead due to the Covid-19. Most of them old. Many of them would have died anyway from some cold or flu that would further aggravate their poor state of health. This year Covid-19 got there first.

[Mar 14, 2020] Of the 3500 people trapped on the first cruise ship - less than 20% got it. You can't get a better infection setup than having people breathing the same air with infected people, with another 1000 service people sharing a huge dorm with no walls and bringing food to everyone

Mar 14, 2020 |

c1ue , Mar 14 2020 0:21 utc | 161

@John Dowser #130
Zero credibility numbers.
Of the 3500 people trapped on the first cruise ship - less than 20% got it. You can't get a better infection setup than having people breathing the same air with infected people, with another 1000 service people sharing a huge dorm with no walls and bringing food to everyone.
So 20% is very likely the worst case in 1 year.
1% of that is still bad, but again, a function of timing. Are they evenly spread out over, say, 6 week time frames? Then its bad but doable.
If they're getting it all in the same quarter, then it is really bad.
But that's why states are ordering lockdowns: pro and college sports cancelled, music/entertainment cancelled, conferences etc.

c1ue , Mar 14 2020 0:26 utc | 163

@conspiracy theorists: try and use some critical thinking.
We have had a number of novel viruses break out in the recent past: Ebola, swine flu, SARS, MERS among the major ones.
Why is it so surprising that we finally got one that happens to be significantly transmissible (unlike SARS), deadly but not too deadly (unlike Ebola) and situated in a region where people travel to/from a lot (unlike MERS)?

Secondly, the genetic sequencing is quite advanced and in the hands of a lot of different people. There is a 96% match between Wuhan bat coronavirus and nCOV; 99% match between pangolin coronavirus and nCOV. Secondly, viruses in general mutate because they are mostly really shitty in error correcting when replicating - so we know they will change over time.

The reality is that governments and scientists simply do not have the capabilities to design a virus to this specification - at least, not yet.

[Mar 13, 2020] Age mortality profile for Italian pacients

Mar 13, 2020 |

utu , says: Show Comment March 13, 2020 at 2:17 pm GMT

@Daniel Chieh Few quotes from

" the percentage of patients admitted to intensive care units reported daily in Italy, from March 1, up until March 11, was consistently between 9% and 11% of patients who were actively infected."

"If this trend continues for 1 more week, there will be 30 000 infected patients. Intensive care units will then be at maximum capacity; up to 4000 hospital beds will be needed by mid-April, 2020."

"Considering that the number of available beds in intensive care units in Italy is close to 5200, and assuming that half of these beds can be used for patients with COVID-19, the system will be at maximum capacity, according to this prediction, by March 14, 2020."

" we can assume that we will need approximately 4000 beds in intensive care units during the worst period of infection, which is expected to occur in about 4 weeks from March 11. This is challenging for Italy, as there are now just over 5200 intensive care beds in total. "

"We predict that if the exponential trend continues for the next few days, more than 2500 hospital beds for patients in intensive care units will be needed in only 1 week to treat ARDS caused by SARS-CoV-2-pneumonia in Italy."

And age mortality profile

"Of the patients who died, 42·2% were aged 80–89 years, 32·4% were aged 70–79 years, 8·4% were aged 60–69 years, and 2·8% were aged 50–59 years (those aged >90 years made up 14·1%). The male to female ratio is 80% to 20% with an older median age for women (83·4 years for women vs 79·9 years for men)."

[Mar 13, 2020] The academic consensus for mortality is currently around 0.3-1% (WHO)

Mar 13, 2020 |

LondonBob , says: Show Comment March 13, 2020 at 8:58 am GMT

Something a little more positive from the China perspective

We are increasing our understanding of this disease. It is clearly very infectious, at least in some circumstances. As we have explained this means that the case severity is likely to be lower than the crude fatality rates in many media reports. We have explained the dilemma of mortality early in epidemics here. The academic consensus for mortality is currently around 0.3-1% (WHO). It could be higher but it could be lower if blood testing eventually confirms more widespread, mild disease. The hospital mortality over the age of 80 years is 15%. Another way of looking at this data is that of every 100 people over the age of 80 who contract COVID-19 and become ill enough to go to hospital. 85% make a full recovery.

[Mar 13, 2020] Structure of high risk population in Italy

Mar 13, 2020 |

The mean age of those who died in Italy was 81 years and more than two-thirds of these patients had diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, or cancer, or were former smokers.

Of the patients who died, 42·2% were aged 80–89 years, 32·4% were aged 70–79 years, 8·4% were aged 60–69 years, and 2·8% were aged 50–59 years (those aged >90 years made up 14·1%). The male to female ratio is 80% to 20% with an older median age for women (83·4 years for women vs 79·9 years for men).

[Mar 08, 2020] The average age of deceased and positive patients in Covid-2019 in Italy is 81 years, mostly men. Neoliberal MSM instigate panic

Mar 08, 2020 |

KamNam , Mar 7 2020 0:23 utc | 58

The average age of deceased and positive patients in Covid-2019 is 81 years, mostly men. They, in more than two thirds of cases, have three or more pre-existing pathologies.
This was confirmed by an analysis conducted by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità on 105 Italian patients who died up to 4 March.
The average age of the patients examined is 81 years, about 20 years higher than that of the patients who contracted the infection. There are 28 women (26.7%).

According to ISS data, 42.2% of the deaths are in the age group between 80 and 89 years. 32.4% were between 70 and 79, while 8.4% between 60 and 69, 2.8% between 50 and 59 and 14.1% over 90 years.
end Snip:
With luck Congress will be cleaned out of old world thinking, and replaced with new world thinking, (alas, same as old world thinking as it is controlled by the same thought group. One lives in hope of change for the better.

KamNam , Mar 7 2020 0:42 utc | 61

Another thought has just come to me. The age of the Media Barons all seem to be in the high to highest end of the fatality spectrum. Wonder if it is a coincidence we are having such a panic media attack, free on facts yet huge on speculation and shunting blame to all and sundry. Just a thought
Joetv , Mar 7 2020 0:46 utc | 62
Could it be ncov19 is no worse than the common cold, and what we are experiencing is the power of the media as it follows the order to create a world wide panic designed to prop up calls for a 1 world government. Deaths recorded are in the 80+ age range with at least 3 pre-existing conditions. The public can't get enough of this soap opera.
KamNam , Mar 7 2020 1:03 utc | 66
ATN Apli @22

Raw figures for Italy and Iran at 14.00 GMT Friday Mar 6
Italy Infected 4636 Deaths 197 Recovered 523
Iran Infected 4747 Deaths 124 Recovered 913

Remember Iran is under very strict Sanctions from USA et al. not helping their situation. Death rate is mostly those over 50 ramping up each decade over the 60 mark. (This get s rid of old farts like me easier and faster :-) ) As for Israel, take that with a pinch of salt they love to brag. I am not denying we live with truly evil people pulling strings for profit. Cheers

[Mar 08, 2020] The real COVID-19 virus mortality rate might well be below one percent

Mar 08, 2020 |

michaelj72 , Mar 7 2020 8:08 utc | 106


....On Tuesday, the WHO noted that the global death rate for the novel coronavirus based on the latest figures was 3.4% -- higher than earlier figures of about 2%. The WHO's director-general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said the new coronavirus was "a unique virus with unique characteristics.".....

....In the low-severity model -- or best-case scenario of the seven -- ANU researchers estimate a global GDP loss of $2.4 trillion, with an estimated death toll of 15 million.....

Al , Mar 7 2020 8:36 utc | 107

I like how without any testing or information MOA knew EVERYTHING and that now any take has to orbit the original assumptions.

You don't have to speak with authority on everything.

fairleft , Mar 7 2020 9:08 utc | 108
michaelj72 @102:

The 3.4% 'mortality rate' is simply the raw number: # of deaths / # of confirmed coronavirus cases. It's NOT comparable to the mortality rate for the common flu, which has long been established as .1%.

The experts in your link (see below) state that the rate will go down as more people are tested.

As far as I know, only China and perhaps South Korea now have reliable figures on how many have been infected with the virus. For example, the U.S. and Japan have been a tragic embarrassment when it comes to actually testing people.

Business Insider:

The death rate is likely to change further as more cases are confirmed, though experts predict that the percentage of deaths will decrease in the longer term since milder cases of COVID-19 are probably going undiagnosed.

"There's another whole cohort that is either asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic," Anthony Fauci, the director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said at a briefing last month. "We're going to see a diminution in the overall death rate."

[Mar 08, 2020] Mortality for COVIL-19 is exaggerated. As long as not a significant number of all people in a certain area are tested, regardless of whether they show symptoms or not, no one can tell the real death rate.

Mar 08, 2020 |

c1ue , Mar 6 2020 19:01 utc | 2

I saw a posting on Propublica that made an important point: death rates are skewed early during an outbreak because deaths are solid markers (numerator) but number of infected known is certainly a subset of actual people who have the disease - particularly when testing isn't available and common.
Also, early during an outbreak, the known infected tend to be those that have serious cases such that they end up in the hospital - so that also skews numbers.

Cemi , Mar 6 2020 19:11 utc | 3

If there is a significant number of symptomless infections the real (death rate) number will be even lower.

That's the point. As long as not a significant number of all people in a certain area are tested, regardless of whether they show symptoms or not, no one can tell the real death rate. No one knows the number of symptomfree infectants.

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